别等变化砸到你！TED 演讲：看见未来，提前布局
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | As a futurist, I think the two most dangerous words in the English language | 作为一个未来主义者,我认为两个最危险的词 在英语中 |
| 0:10 | are unimaginable and unthinkable. | 这是不可想象和不可想象的。 |
| 0:13 | So I want to invite you to think creatively and courageously | 所以我想邀请你 有创意和勇敢的思考 |
| 0:17 | about some hard-to-imagine possibilities. | 关于一些难以想象的可能性。 |
| 0:21 | Let's play a game of what if. | 让我们玩个游戏,如果。 |
| 0:23 | I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios. | 我将描述三种假设的未来情景. |
| 0:27 | You try to imagine how you would feel and what you would do, | 你试着想象你的感受,你会怎么做, |
| 0:31 | if you woke up in these strange new worlds. | 如果你醒来 在这陌生的新世界。 |
| 0:35 | Future number one. | 未来第一. |
| 0:37 | It's 2033. | 2033 (英语). |
展开字幕全文（109 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | As a futurist, I think the two most dangerous words in the English language | 作为一个未来主义者,我认为两个最危险的词 在英语中 |
| 2 | are unimaginable and unthinkable. | 这是不可想象和不可想象的。 |
| 3 | So I want to invite you to think creatively and courageously | 所以我想邀请你 有创意和勇敢的思考 |
| 4 | about some hard-to-imagine possibilities. | 关于一些难以想象的可能性。 |
| 5 | Let's play a game of what if. | 让我们玩个游戏,如果。 |
| 6 | I'll describe three hypothetical future scenarios. | 我将描述三种假设的未来情景. |
| 7 | You try to imagine how you would feel and what you would do, | 你试着想象你的感受,你会怎么做, |
| 8 | if you woke up in these strange new worlds. | 如果你醒来 在这陌生的新世界。 |
| 9 | Future number one. | 未来第一. |
| 10 | It's 2033. | 2033 (英语). |
| 11 | Extreme heat, wildfire and droughts have been worse | 极端的热、野火和干旱更严重 |
| 12 | than even the most dire climate predictions, | 比最可怕的气候预测, |
| 13 | so now geoengineering is up for a global vote. | 因此,现在地球工程是全球投票。 |
| 14 | Nine billion people are eligible to vote yes or no | 90亿人有资格投票 |
| 15 | on a 10-year plan of aggressive solar radiation management, | 关于积极进行太阳辐射管理的十年计划, |
| 16 | injecting sulfate particles into the atmosphere | 向大气中注入硫酸盐颗粒 |
| 17 | to block some of the sun's rays. | 挡住太阳的射线 |
| 18 | The election is called sun exit. | 选举称为"阳光出口". |
| 19 | They're saying a yes on sun exit could bring about a 10-year winter, | 他们说对太阳出口答应 会带来十年的冬天 |
| 20 | but it could also solve some of our biggest climate challenges. | 但也能够解决我们最大的气候挑战 |
| 21 | Is it worth the risks, the unintended consequences? | 风险和意外后果值得吗? |
| 22 | How would you vote? | 你会怎么投票? |
| 23 | How would you educate yourself to be ready to vote? | 你怎么教育自己准备好投票? |
| 24 | Scenario update, sun exit passed, we're doing it. | 情况更新,阳光出口通过,我们正在做。 |
| 25 | Solar radiation management starts in 10 days. | 太阳辐射管理10天后开始. |
| 26 | Now how do you feel? | 你感觉怎么样? |
| 27 | What do you do in the next 10 days to get ready? | 接下来十天你做什么准备? |
| 28 | OK, it's one year later. | 好吧,这是一年后。 |
| 29 | The geoengineering is working, yes. | 地球工程学在起作用,是的。 |
| 30 | But paradoxically, trust in science is now at an all-time low. | 但自相矛盾的是,现在对科学的信任度一直很低。 |
| 31 | People are saying there are mental and physical side effects. | 人们说有身心的副作用. |
| 32 | Is it just misinformation? | 只是错误信息吗? |
| 33 | What do you do to stay healthy? | 你做什么来保持健康? |
| 34 | New future. | 新未来. |
| 35 | OK, it's 2029 now, | 好了 现在是2029年了 |
| 36 | and your federal government has gone full-blown, | 你们的联邦政府已经全面成立, |
| 37 | zero-waste authoritarian style. | 零浪费专制风格. |
| 38 | It is now illegal to throw anything away. | 现在丢掉任何东西是非法的。 |
| 39 | They literally took everyone's garbage cans. | 他们把每个人的垃圾桶都拿走了 |
| 40 | Now, composting's still allowed, recycling never worked, | 现在,堆肥仍然允许, 回收没有工作, |
| 41 | and garbage, you can't make any of it. | 和垃圾,你不能做到这一点。 |
| 42 | Nothing. | 没什么 |
| 43 | But there's some good news. | 但有一些好消息。 |
| 44 | Psychologists have invented a new word to capture the positive emotion | 心理学家发明了一个新词来捕捉积极的情感 |
| 45 | that defines life in a zero-waste age. | 定义了零废物时代的生活。 |
| 46 | 零头pho. | |
| 47 | It's a combination of joy, pride and resourcefulness, | 这是快乐、骄傲和智慧的结合 |
| 48 | a lightness of being that comes from wasting nothing | 一种轻轻的自我 来自于浪费什么 |
| 49 | and leaving no trace behind. | 而不留下任何痕迹。 |
| 50 | How do you react to these changes? | 你对这些变化有什么反应? |
| 51 | Do you learn new habits, help others adapt, | 你是否学会了新习惯,帮助别人适应, |
| 52 | or do you rise up enjoying the pro-trash resistance, | 还是你们为抵抗而起来的呢? |
| 53 | or become a reformer, | 或成为改革者, |
| 54 | propose ways to make zero-waste society better? | 提出使零废物社会更美好的方法? |
| 55 | OK, let's imagine one final future. | 好吧,让我们想象一个最后的未来。 |
| 56 | It's 2031. | 2031年通车. |
| 57 | Climate migration is on the rise. | 气候移徙正在增加。 |
| 58 | Countries with low fertility rates are competing with each other for immigrants. | 生育率低的国家相互竞争移民。 |
| 59 | Governments are building climate-resilient welcome cities | 政府正在建设具有气候抗御力的欢迎城市 |
| 60 | and paying people to move there. | 付钱让人们搬去那里 |
| 61 | It's part of a new geopolitical movement called the Welcome Party. | 这是一个新的地缘政治运动"欢迎党"的一部分. |
| 62 | Up to one billion people are expected to climate relocate | 预计将有多达10亿人因气候原因搬迁 |
| 63 | with assistance over the next decade. | 未来十年的援助。 |
| 64 | You have been asked to take a personal survey of climate risk | 你被要求对气候风险进行个人调查 |
| 65 | and intention to migrate. | 并打算迁移。 |
| 66 | The Welcome Party is collecting data to simulate and plan | 欢迎党正在收集数据 模拟和计划 |
| 67 | a safe and equitable mass climate migration. | 安全和公平的大规模气候迁移。 |
| 68 | You have to name three climate-resilient cities | 你要给三个气候抗御能力强的城市命名 |
| 69 | you would be willing to move to, | 你会愿意搬去, |
| 70 | given social and economic support. | 获得社会和经济支持。 |
| 71 | Which three cities do you name? | 你叫哪个城市? |
| 72 | How prepared do you feel to consider this question? | 考虑这个问题你有什么准备? |
| 73 | Why am I posing these hypotheticals? | 我为什么要假设这些? |
| 74 | Well, take a look at this data. | 看看这个数据 |
| 75 | These two charts show how often we use the words | 这两张图表显示我们经常用这个词 |
| 76 | unimaginable and unthinkable in our journalism. | 无法想象和无法想象 我们的新闻。 |
| 77 | Look how common they've become. | 看看他们变得多么普遍。 |
| 78 | We are so often shocked and blindsided by how the future unfolds, | 我们常常对未来的发展感到震惊和盲目, |
| 79 | but it doesn't have to be that way. | 但没必要这样 |
| 80 | At the Nonprofit Institute for the Future in Palo Alto, California, | 在加州帕洛阿尔托的非营利未来研究所, |
| 81 | I help people build imagination leadership skills | 我帮助人们培养想象力的领导能力 |
| 82 | by simulating hard-to-imagine futures like you've thought about today. | 通过模拟你今天想的 难以想象的未来 |
| 83 | Our goal is to improve everyone's scores | 我们的目标是提高每个人的分数 |
| 84 | on three measures of future imagination, | 关于未来想象力的三项措施, |
| 85 | like mental flexibility. | 像精神上的灵活性。 |
| 86 | On a scale of one to ten, | 在1到10的尺度上, |
| 87 | how plausible or realistic is this future scenario? | 这种未来情况有多么合理或现实? |
| 88 | In other words, is it thinkable to you? | 换句话说,你觉得它能思考吗? |
| 89 | Also, realistic hope. | 还有现实的希望 |
| 90 | On a scale of one to ten, | 在1到10的尺度上, |
| 91 | how worried or excited would you be to wake up in this future? | 你将来醒来会有多担心或兴奋? |
| 92 | We want you to anticipate new risks, | 我们希望你预见新的风险 |
| 93 | but also opportunities for positive transformation. | 但也带来了积极转变的机会。 |
| 94 | And finally, future power. | 最后,未来的力量。 |
| 95 | On a scale of one to ten, | 在1到10的尺度上, |
| 96 | how ready do you feel to help yourself and others | 你愿意帮助自己和其他人吗? |
| 97 | if this future were really to happen? | 如果将来真的要发生呢? |
| 98 | This is the number we see go up the most | 这是我们见到的最多数 |
| 99 | after people imagine themselves taking action in a hypothetical world. | 人们想象自己在一个假想的世界中采取行动 |
| 100 | So the next time you have an instinct | 所以下次你有直觉 |
| 101 | to describe a possibility as unthinkable or unimaginable, | 将一种可能性描述为不可想象或不可想象, |
| 102 | wait. | 单单 |
| 103 | Play with that possibility instead. | 玩这个可能性。 |
| 104 | Help us become a community, a society, | 帮助我们成为一个社区 一个社会, |
| 105 | that can confidently say, | 他必说: |
| 106 | we can face and we can solve | 我们可以面对和解决 |
| 107 | previously unimaginable challenges together. | 共同面对以前无法想象的挑战。 |
| 108 | For us, there are no unthinkable futures. | 对我们来说,没有不可想象的未来。 |
| 109 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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