【TED 双语】不是投入更多预算，而是把钱花得更聪明｜Why

【TED 双语】不是投入更多预算，而是把钱花得更聪明｜Why spending smarter beats bigger budgets

发布于 2026-09-24 · 时长 12:44

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:04	So the good news on global development is that key indicators like child mortality	所以全球发展的好消息是儿童死亡率等关键指标
0:10	and school enrollment are better today than at any point in human history.	今天的入学率比人类历史上的任何阶段都好
0:15	However, the bad news is that though many more children are surviving,	然而,坏消息是,虽然还有更多的儿童存活下来,
0:20	large numbers are not thriving.	大量人口并不兴旺。
0:22	As of 2022, we had nearly 150 million stunted children,	截至2022年,我们有近1.5亿发育不良儿童,
0:28	or around 22 percent of the world's children.	或约22%的世界儿童。
0:31	Similarly, 70 percent of children age 10 in low- and middle-income countries	同样,在中低收入国家,10岁儿童的70%
0:37	could not read a simple passage.	无法读取一个简单的段落。
0:40	Put together, the world is behind schedule on over 85 percent	总之,世界落后于计划 85%以上
0:45	of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.	联合国可持续发展目标

展开字幕全文（191 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	So the good news on global development is that key indicators like child mortality	所以全球发展的好消息是儿童死亡率等关键指标
2	and school enrollment are better today than at any point in human history.	今天的入学率比人类历史上的任何阶段都好
3	However, the bad news is that though many more children are surviving,	然而,坏消息是,虽然还有更多的儿童存活下来,
4	large numbers are not thriving.	大量人口并不兴旺。
5	As of 2022, we had nearly 150 million stunted children,	截至2022年,我们有近1.5亿发育不良儿童,
6	or around 22 percent of the world's children.	或约22%的世界儿童。
7	Similarly, 70 percent of children age 10 in low- and middle-income countries	同样,在中低收入国家,10岁儿童的70%
8	could not read a simple passage.	无法读取一个简单的段落。
9	Put together, the world is behind schedule on over 85 percent	总之,世界落后于计划 85%以上
10	of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.	联合国可持续发展目标
11	Now, at one level, this might seem very bleak,	现在,在一个层面, 这可能看起来非常暗淡,
12	but I'm here today to tell you that I'm optimistic	但我今天在这里告诉你我很乐观
13	that we can accelerate global development because there is a free lunch.	我们可以加速全球发展,因为有一个免费午餐。
14	OK?	好吗?
15	Now, you may be thinking, is this guy really an economist?	现在,你可能会在想, 这家伙真的是经济学家吗?
16	You know, like we're taught that the first basic lesson of economics	你知道,就像我们被教导经济学的第一个基本教训
17	is that there's no such thing as a free lunch, OK?	没有免费午餐吗?
18	But I am a professor of economics, and I am going to show you a free lunch today.	但我是经济学教授今天我要给你们看免费午餐
19	And the source of this free lunch comes from the fact that over the past two decades,	而这个免费午餐的来源来自于一个事实, 在过去20年里,
20	the explosion in the availability of data, computing power and better research methods,	数据提供、计算能力和更好的研究方法的爆炸,
21	including the growing use of randomized controlled trials in social policy,	包括在社会政策中越来越多地使用随机控制的试验,
22	has helped us identify large sets of interventions	帮助我们确定大量干预措施
23	that have a 10x return on investment that we're not acting on.	10x的投资回报我们没有采取行动。
24	At the same time, the research has also identified that governments around the world	同时,研究还确认,世界各国政府
25	spend billions of dollars on interventions that are pretty ineffective.	花费数十亿美元用于非常无效的干预。
26	And so the free lunch is pretty simple,	所以免费午餐很简单
27	that we can deliver a lot more for global development,	我们能为全球发展带来更多的成果,
28	not necessarily by spending more, but by spending smarter,	不一定要花更多钱而是要花更聪明
29	which basically means spending less on things that are less effective	基本上意味着在效率低的东西上花费更少
30	and more on underfunded ideas that could be transformative.	更多关于可能具有变革性的资金不足的想法。
31	So let's explore this with a deep dive into global education.	因此,我们探索一下,深入到全球教育中去。
32	As with all other areas, the good news is that school enrollment is higher today	和所有其他领域一样,好消息是今天的入学率更高
33	than ever been before.	从来没有像现在这样
34	The bad news is that this increase in enrollment has not translated into learning outcomes.	坏消息是,入学率的提高并没有转化为学习成果。
35	So with 70% of 10-year-olds in low- and middle-income countries	因此,中低收入国家70%的10岁儿童
36	not able to read a simple passage, we have a global learning crisis.	我们无法读到一个简单的段落,我们面临全球学习危机。
37	This is both a moral tragedy for the individual children	这对孩子来说都是道德悲剧
38	whose lifelong capabilities and opportunities are constrained by weak education,	其终身能力和机会因教育薄弱而受到限制;
39	but it's also a tragedy for their countries	但对于他们的国家来说也是悲剧
40	because it limits long-term productivity and economic growth.	因为它限制了长期生产力和经济增长。
41	Now, the normal approach to dealing with this problem	现在,处理这个问题的正常方法
42	is to say we need to spend more, either through more foreign aid	换句话说,我们需要花更多的钱要么通过更多的外援
43	or through higher government budgets.	或者通过更高的政府预算。
44	But what the research also shows is that most of the business-as-usual spending	但研究也显示大部分一切照旧
45	that we do is not very effective.	我们做的并不十分有效。
46	In particular, we have studies showing that upgrading school infrastructure,	特别是,我们的研究表明, 学校基础设施的升级,
47	hiring more credentialed teachers, increasing teacher pay,	雇用更多的教师,提高教师工资,
48	or even giving students free textbooks and laptops	甚至是免费的教科书和笔记本电脑
49	don't seem to be having much of an impact.	似乎没什么影响
50	So the question is, what is going on?	所以问题是,到底发生了什么?
51	How do you make sense of this?	你怎么解释的?
52	Now, one problem is a problem of governance and accountability,	现在,有一个问题是治理和问责制问题,
53	which limits the translation of public expenditure into outcomes.	限制将公共支出转化为成果。
54	But a bigger problem may be weaknesses in pedagogy and teaching	但更大的问题是教学和教学方面的弱点
55	within the classroom, as seen in this figure.	如图所示,在教室里。
56	Now, this figure comes from one of my studies in India	现在,这个数字来自我在印度的一个研究
57	with a sample of over 6,000 kids,	有六千多名孩子的样本
58	and I consider it to be perhaps the most important figure	我认为这可能是最重要的人物
59	for understanding education in low- and middle-income countries.	了解中低收入国家的教育。
60	The x-axis here is the grade in which the student is enrolled.	此处的x轴是学生入学的级别.
61	The y-axis is the level of learning.	y轴是学习的水平.
62	Now, if students were making progress as per the rate of the curriculum,	现在,如果学生进步与课程的比例,
63	they should be on that 45-degree red line.	他们应该在45度的红线上
64	In practice, kids fall behind quickly for a variety of reasons and stay behind,	实践上,孩子们由于各种原因迅速落后,留在后面,
65	and the true rate of progress is around half of what is in the curriculum,	真正的进步率大约是课程的一半,
66	as seen by the blue line.	从蓝线上可以看到
67	And so what that means is your average eighth-grade kid	所以,这意味着你的平均八年级的孩子
68	in public school in India has about a fourth-grade level	印度公立学校约有四年级
69	of understanding of mathematics.	对数学的理解。
70	Now, further, with dynamic computer adaptive testing,	现在,进一步, 通过动态的计算机适应测试,
71	we can pinpoint the exact learning level of every student in the sample.	我们可以确定样本中每个学生的确切学习水平。
72	And so every circle here represents about 10 kids.	所以这里每个圈子都代表着大约10个孩子。
73	And what you see now is if you focus on the eighth-grade part of that picture,	你现在看到的是如果你专注于那张照片的第八级部分
74	is that in one eighth-grade classroom,	在一个八年级的教室里
75	you have students at a second-grade level, at a third, at a fourth, at a fifth,	有二年级、三年级、四年级、五年级的学生
76	all the way up to eighth-grade level of understanding.	一直到八年级才明白
77	And so what that means is that this teacher has a nearly humanly impossible task	所以这意味着这个老师的任务几乎不可能完成
78	of catering to that kind of variation in the classroom.	在课堂上照顾这种变化。
79	And so what does a teacher do?	老师是做什么的?
80	Even a sincere, motivated teacher will focus on completing the curriculum and the textbook.	即使是一个真诚、有积极性的教师,也将注重完成课程和教科书。
81	But the problem is that does not translate into much learning	但问题是,这并没有转化为很多学习
82	because it is so far ahead of the level of where the kids are.	因为它远远领先于孩子们的位置。
83	Now, between this lecture, if I start talking in another language,	现在,在这个讲座之间, 如果我开始用另一种语言说话,
84	then whatever qualified I am, whatever motivated I am,	那么无论我是否合格, 无论我是否积极,
85	whatever sincere I am, you will not understand anything.	无论我有多真诚你都不会明白的
86	Now, why am I speaking in another language?	为什么我要用另一种语言说话?
87	So that you all can feel for a few moments	这样你们都能感觉到
88	that in the millions of classrooms of the world,	在世界数百万间教室里
89	every day, every child would feel something.	每个孩子每天都有感觉
90	Now, if you are able to understand, then please raise your hand.	如果你能理解那就举起手来
91	Now, what have I just done to you?	我刚刚对你做了什么?
92	I have given you 25 seconds in the shoes of a typical kid in a typical classroom	我给了你25秒的时间在典型的教室里一个典型的孩子的鞋子里
93	in millions of schools around the world.	在全球数百万所学校。
94	And so what that helps you understand is I could be highly motivated,	所以能帮助你理解的是我可以有很高的动力
95	highly qualified, highly sincere,	高素质高诚意
96	but that instruction is not going to result in learning	但这种教育不会导致学习
97	because it's way above your level of understanding	因为它远超你的理解水平
98	and it will only reach a small fraction of the kids in the class	并且只能接触到班上的一小部分孩子
99	as we saw by those who put up their hands in this room.	正如我们所看到的那些把手放在这个房间的人。
100	And now, that also helps make sense of why default things	而现在,这也帮助理解为什么默认的事情
101	like upgrading school infrastructure, increasing teacher pay,	比如提高学校的基础设施,增加教师的工资,
102	giving free textbooks or even free laptops	免费提供教科书甚至免费笔记本电脑
103	often don't seem to have much of an impact.	似乎没什么影响
104	And that's because they're not addressing the binding constraint to learning,	这是因为他们没有解决约束学习,
105	which is the mismatch between instruction and comprehension.	这是指令和理解的不匹配。
106	Now, while free tablets or laptops don't seem to have much impact by themselves,	现在,尽管免费的平板电脑或笔记本电脑似乎没有太大的影响自己,
107	we found large positive effects of customized learning software	我们发现定制的学习软件产生了巨大的积极影响
108	印度称为MindSpark
109	that was able to tailor instruction to every kid in the class.	能够适应班里每个孩子的教学
110	And so now in that same eighth grade class,	所以现在在同一个八年级班
111	you've got kids at completely different levels	你的孩子的级别完全不同
112	but who are being taught at a level that's right for them	但他们的教诲是适当的,
113	and the results were stunning.	结果是惊人的。
114	We saw among the largest gains in any education study done in developing countries	我们看到,在发展中国家进行的任何教育研究中,都取得了最大的成就。
115	and in four months of the program, they gained about a full year of learning.	在计划的四个月里他们获得了大约整整一年的学习
116	So that's the case to be optimistic.	因此,应该乐观。
117	But this is TED, and so before we think that technology will replace the teacher,	但是这是TED,所以在我们认为技术能取代老师之前,
118	here's another tale of caution.	这是另一个警告的故事。
119	During COVID, we ran another randomized control trial	在COVID期间,我们又进行了一次随机控制试验
120	that gave a large number of kids free tablets with MindSpark that we know works,	给了很多孩子免费的药片与明德斯帕克我们知道的工作,
121	and we gave it to them to use at home when schools were shut down.	我们给了他们当学校关闭时在家里使用。
122	And unfortunately, the impact was exactly zero.	不幸的是,影响完全为零。
123	And we know why, because you can track the usage	我们知道为什么,因为你可以跟踪使用
124	and you see that without the adults supporting the child,	你看,没有成年人抚养孩子,
125	there is no engagement and no learning.	没有约定,也没有学习。
126	So put together, what this tells us is that technology has the potential to be transformative,	因此, 集合起来, 这告诉我们, 技术有潜力变革,
127	but it's not a silver bullet by itself.	但它不是银弹本身。
128	But if you use the data and the evidence to iterate the solution,	但如果你用数据和证据来分析解决方案
129	you can use technology to transform education at scale.	你可以使用技术改造教育的规模。
130	In other cases, interventions, completely low-tech interventions,	在其他情况下,干预, 完全低技术干预,
131	can be highly effective, such as remedial after-school tutoring programs,	能够非常有效,例如补习课后辅导方案,
132	often run by high school graduates with no formal teacher training.	经常由没有受过正式师资培训的高中毕业生经营.
133	In another recent study, we studied the impact of one of the world's largest	在最近另一项研究中,我们研究了世界上最大的
134	COVID remediation education programs run by the Indian state of Tamil Nadu.	印度泰米尔纳德邦实施的COVID补救教育方案。
135	So in this program, the government hired about 200,000 young women with a high school degree	因此,在这个计划中,政府雇用了大约20万具有高中学位的年轻妇女
136	to provide 60 to 90 minutes of remedial instruction after school,	课后提供60至90分钟的补习,
137	and it reached over 3 million students.	超过300万学生。
138	And the program was highly effective, improved equity,	这个计划非常有效提高了公平度
139	and was about 10 times more cost-effective than business-as-usual education spending.	并且成本效益比一切照旧的教育开支高10倍左右。
140	But that program would have been discontinued if we didn't present that study to the government leadership,	但是如果我们不把研究报告提交给政府领导,这个计划就会被中止
141	because they would have thought, it's one year after COVID, we don't need this.	因为他们会想,这是一年后COVID, 我们不需要这个。
142	Now, this pattern of 10x ROI investments is not restricted to education.	现在,这种10xROI投资的模式并不限于教育.
143	In sector after sector, ranging from education, early childhood development,	在教育、幼儿发展、
144	welfare programs, and even justice, the research over the past decade	福利方案,甚至司法,过去十年的研究
145	has identified a series of 10x ROI opportunities.	已经确定了一系列 10xROI的机会。
146	Now, if you're a private sector investor, and I'm offering you a 10x ROI,	如果你是私营部门的投资者我愿意给你10倍价
147	you'd be clamoring to put as much money to work as possible in that opportunity.	你会想花尽可能多的钱尽可能利用这个机会工作
148	But governments often don't act on these ideas due to a combination of inertia,	但政府往往不对这些思想采取行动, 因为惯性结合,
149	risk aversion, and lack of political and bureaucratic incentives to act.	以及缺乏采取行动的政治和官僚动机。
150	As an economist, I don't worry about how Toyota produces its cars,	作为经济学家,我不担心丰田如何生产汽车,
151	because you face market prices for inputs and market prices for outputs.	因为你面临投入的市场价格和产出的市场价格。
152	And if you're not efficient, there's competitive pressure to get you there.	如果你效率不高, 会有竞争压力让你在那里。
153	In contrast, governments can spend taxpayer money badly	相比之下,政府会把纳税人的钱花得很惨
154	and leave $100 bills lying on the sidewalk for a really long time	然后把一百块的钞票放在人行道上
155	because they don't face a market test for their actions	因为他们的行为不会面临市场考验
156	and don't get the feedback on the effectiveness or lack thereof of their spending.	并且不会得到反馈他们支出的有效性或缺乏。
157	And that's why research and evidence is especially important	这就是为什么研究和证据特别重要
158	for guiding effective public spending, way more so than in the private sector,	指导有效的公共开支,比私营部门要多得多,
159	where you have the incentives that push you there.	在那里,你有激励推你在那里。
160	Now, it's going to be easy to think that governments are these big lumbering beasts,	现在,它会很容易认为政府是这些大木材野兽,
161	which they are, but there is absolutely no getting away from the centrality	但绝对不能远离中心
162	of improving government effectiveness for global development.	提高政府促进全球发展的效力。
163	And that's because the problems of development are concentrated among the poor,	这是因为发展问题集中在穷人身上,
164	and markets will typically not cater as much to the poor.	市场通常不会满足穷人的需要。
165	Markets are wonderful things and provide the incentives for the innovation	市场是美妙的事物为创新提供激励
166	and the dynamism needed to power modern economies.	以及推动现代经济所需要的活力。
167	But markets don't care for you if you don't have purchasing power.	但是市场并不关心你如果你没有购买力。
168	And so the basic tension here is that the democratic ideal is one person, one vote,	所以这里的基本紧张是民主的理想是一人一票
169	whereas the market values you on a $1, one vote principle.	而市场却以一美元的价格来估价你一票的原则
170	And that's why there's no getting away from building effective public systems	这也是为什么不能放弃建立有效的公共系统
171	to make sure that we can get the benefits of innovation to the poor at scale	* 确保我们能够从创新中大规模惠及穷人;
172	who otherwise would not be able to afford them.	不然,他们将负担不起。
173	This is how we managed to substantially reduce infant mortality in the 20th century.	这就是我们如何在20世纪大幅度降低婴儿死亡率。
174	It was not enough to have new knowledge on effective medical interventions	仅仅掌握有效医疗干预的新知识是不够的
175	like vaccinations or oral rehydration therapy for diarrhea.	如接种疫苗或口服补液治疗痢疾.
176	It was essential to build the public systems that could take that new knowledge	必须建立公共系统,以掌握新的知识。
177	and deliver that at scale and reach the poor who otherwise would not be able to access these benefits.	并大规模地提供,并惠及那些否则无法获得这些福利的穷人。
178	So to summarize, in a world of slowing economic growth, climate change, wars and scarring from pandemics,	因此,在经济增长减缓、气候变化、战争和大流行病伤痕累累的世界上,
179	there's a very real risk that progress in global development slows down or even reverses.	有一种非常真实的风险,即全球发展的进展会放慢甚至逆转.
180	But we have reason to be optimistic that there is a huge free lunch on the table	但我们有理由乐观地认为餐桌上有一个巨大的免费午餐
181	that we can act on by using data and evidence to improve the effectiveness of public spending.	我们可以利用数据和证据采取行动,提高公共开支的效力。
182	But just because it's free does not mean it is easy.	但仅仅因为它是免费的并不意味着它是容易的。
183	It is free because you can achieve a lot more by spending smarter rather than spending more.	它是免费的,因为你可以通过更聪明地花费而不是花费更多来取得更大的成就。
184	But it is not easy because that requires us to work with governments	但这并不容易,因为这要求我们与政府合作
185	and patiently build the public systems to improve the effectiveness of public expenditure	并耐心地建立公共系统,以提高公共支出的效力;
186	that can reach the poor at scale.	能够达到穷人的规模。
187	This is increasingly what I've been working on,	我越来越努力了
188	and I'm incredibly encouraged by my engagements and interactions	我对我的约定和互动感到非常鼓舞
189	with many outstanding government officials in India and around the world who want to do exactly this.	与许多杰出的政府官员在印度和世界各地谁想这样做。
190	And that's why I'm optimistic that we can sharply accelerate global development.	这就是为什么我乐观地认为我们可以快速地加速全球发展。
191	Thank you.	谢谢

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