【中英字幕】彭博财经观察26.11.11

【中英字幕】彭博财经观察26.11.11

发布于 2026-11-12 · 时长 2:16:26

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:05	There's room for a little bit of relief rally if sentiment improves even just slightly	如果情绪稍稍好转 就可以举行一些救济集会
0:09	I think right now that market cycle is looking like it's under threat	我觉得现在的市场循环 看起来像是在受到威胁
0:13	The AI trade is really under pressure from all sides.	AI贸易确实受到各方面的压力.
0:16	The market is getting that angst out now	市场现在很生气
0:18	It's more difficult to buy when volatility is high	波动很大,就更难买
0:21	This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Farrow Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordurn	这是彭博公司与乔纳森·法罗·丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮-玛丽·霍杜恩的监控
0:28	Good morning live from New York	早上好,纽约现场直播
0:29	This is Bloomberg surveillance stocks trying to stage a rally this morning after yet another tumultuous day	这是Bloomberg的监控股票 在另一个动荡的一天之后 今早试图组织集会
0:35	Rocked by the start of Anthropics IPO in the right kind of way	在人类学的开始 IPO的正确方式
0:39	And the deepening scandal at Nvidia the wrong kind of way bond markets closed today for US Veterans Day	而Nvidia的丑闻不断加深 债券市场今天在退役军人节关闭的方式是错误的

展开字幕全文（2492 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	There's room for a little bit of relief rally if sentiment improves even just slightly	如果情绪稍稍好转 就可以举行一些救济集会
2	I think right now that market cycle is looking like it's under threat	我觉得现在的市场循环 看起来像是在受到威胁
3	The AI trade is really under pressure from all sides.	AI贸易确实受到各方面的压力.
4	The market is getting that angst out now	市场现在很生气
5	It's more difficult to buy when volatility is high	波动很大,就更难买
6	This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Farrow Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie Hordurn	这是彭博公司与乔纳森·法罗·丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮-玛丽·霍杜恩的监控
7	Good morning live from New York	早上好,纽约现场直播
8	This is Bloomberg surveillance stocks trying to stage a rally this morning after yet another tumultuous day	这是Bloomberg的监控股票 在另一个动荡的一天之后 今早试图组织集会
9	Rocked by the start of Anthropics IPO in the right kind of way	在人类学的开始 IPO的正确方式
10	And the deepening scandal at Nvidia the wrong kind of way bond markets closed today for US Veterans Day	而Nvidia的丑闻不断加深 债券市场今天在退役军人节关闭的方式是错误的
11	But very much in the driver's seat yesterday is a hotter than expected inflation report	但昨天在车手座上 却比预期的通货膨胀报告还要热
12	Sent yield surging the most for the front and going back to deliberation day and traders completely repricing Fed expectations	交易商完全重燃了美联储的期望
13	Absolutely, so if you look at the two-year yield going back to that Liberation Day roller coaster	当然,所以如果你看看两年的回报 回到解放日的过山车
14	Basically, you could say this bond market got a little bit yippy when it comes to that inflation report yesterday	基本上,你可以说这个债券市场 在昨天的通货膨胀报告 得到了一点点的Yippy
15	once again inflation is showing that is sticky and it's not just governor Waller who really set the parameters of	通货膨胀再次表明,这是粘糊糊的 而且不只是州长沃勒 谁真正设定参数
16	This debate of not will the Fed hike but how much they might fight hike	讨论美联储的徒步旅行,
17	But Austin Goldsby last night speaking to PBS talking about how this was really a very ugly report	但奥斯汀·戈兹比昨晚跟PBS谈话 说这真的是个非常丑陋的报告
18	Yeah, another distressing report borderline disturbing in the comments of also	是的,另一个令人不安的报告 边界线不安 在评论中
19	Lori Logan Dallas Fed president coming out and saying it may be possible to move more rapidly this winter	洛丽·洛根·达拉斯 美联储总裁出来 说今年冬天可以更快行动
20	Then the FOMC has moved so far this fall opening the door to that 50 basis point rate hike that now	那么,FOMC已经移动至今 今年秋天打开了门 以50个基点 升速现在
21	It's certainly a 25 basis point is priced in the discussion is for a 50 basis point rate hike	讨论价是25个基点 是50个基点升价
22	And this is sort of ironic because people have been pushed into debt markets on the heels of turmoil in the chip trade	这有点讽刺 因为人们被推入债务市场 紧随芯片贸易的动荡
23	And suddenly it feels a little bit like out of the fire into the frying pan or one of the way around when it comes to	突然间感觉有点像从火里冒出来 进入煎锅里或者一个绕道
24	The chip trade actually core weave yesterday in a crucial report if they were to deliver in any other quarter	芯片交易其实是核心 编织在昨天 一个关键的报告,如果他们要交付 在任何其他季度
25	This was going to be the quarter.	本来是这个季度的
26	This is a debt-laden company	这是一家负债累累的公司
27	There have been immense pressure and guess what they had an excellent report in the sense projected revenue 13 billion to 13.3 billion	他们承受了巨大的压力 猜猜他们有什么优秀的报告 从预期收入130亿到133亿
28	Exceeding the previous range that just gave some injection into okay.	超越了前一个范围 刚刚给一些注入好。
29	This AI trade at the moment can still last	现在的人工智能贸易还能持续
30	Neo clouds getting a boost pretty much are all around the ecosystem at the same time at video	新的云层得到的振动 几乎都在生态系统周围 同时在视频中
31	falling at one point below of five four trillion dollars in terms of its full valuation as people continue to question whether	由于人们继续质疑,从全部价值来看,在540万亿美元以下的某一点上,
32	Jensen Wong can stay at the helm after the affair revealed with a suspected Chinese spy increasing calls for him to step down an	简森 黄飞鸿可以继续掌舵 因为跟一个中国间谍的私情曝光后... ...
33	Increasing number of analysts saying what would this company be if you were no longer there?	越来越多的分析家说 如果你不在公司会是什么?
34	Well Dan Ives yesterday put out the note saying you're gonna see double-digit decline if Jensen	达恩 Ives昨天放出纸条 说如果Jensen的话 你会看到两位数下降
35	Wong steps down or is removed for Nvidia.	黄帝下步或为恩维陀.
36	This is not just the face of Nvidia	这不仅仅是恩维迪亚的面孔
37	This is a founder founded in Denny's and brought it to this incredible company	这是在Denny's创立的创始人 把它带到这个不可思议的公司
38	But this is the guy who is Dan Ives is right the godfather of AI	但这个人叫丹·艾维斯 对 他是AI的教父
39	He is the face of this trade, which is why so many people say this key man risk	他是这个交易的面孔 这就是为什么这么多人说这个关键人物冒险
40	He is too big to fail, but I bring you this morning to a senior Republican member of the Senate Banking Committee	他太大了不能失败 但我今早带你们去见 参议院银行委员会的一名高级共和党议员
41	This is a Republican from North Dakota Kevin Kramer	这是来自北达科他州的共和党人凯文·克雷默
42	The potential for extortion is so tremendous that something as sensitive as Nvidia chips	勒索的潜质如此巨大 以至于像Nvidia芯片一样敏感
43	I just think he's got to go.	我只是觉得他该走了
44	You know who else is chiming in and saying he's got to go the president's former NEC director	你知道还有谁在打电话 并说他必须去 总统的前NEC主任
45	Larry Kudlow an individual the president listens to I'm not saying that the US is going to decide this but you could see the pressure	Larry Kudlow 一个总统的人 听我的 我不是说美国会决定的 但你可以看到压力
46	Mounting that people are just uncomfortable with this and there's gonna be a lot of noise.	上面的人只是不舒服 这一点,会有很多噪音。
47	It only just started in Washington	才刚从华盛顿开始
48	That's gonna put pressure on this company and on this board	这会给公司和董事会带来压力
49	Nvidia shares the market valuation now lower by almost two trillion dollars	现在Nvidia的市场估值下降了近两万亿美元
50	Nonetheless, you are seeing optimism coming from core wave as AMH was talking about and anthropics IPO the road show	尽管如此,你还是看到来自核心浪潮的乐观, 当AMH在谈论和人类学 IPO的路展
51	Continuing with some reports saying that bankers are looking to upsize the total valuation	继续一些报道说,银行家正在设法扩大总价值
52	Beyond that $78 a share range right now in markets while bond markets are closed stock markets	超过78美元,现在的市场份额范围 债券市场是封闭的股票市场
53	You are seeing a lift across the board particularly when it comes to the tech heavy sector core	特别是科技重部门核心方面 你可以看到一个全方位的电梯
54	As a major saying really giving everything a lift 1.7 percent gain some pre-market trading	说来话长 给一切带来升降机 1.7%获得市场前交易
55	S&P futures trying to claw back some of the losses over the past a couple of weeks	S&P期货试图挽回过去几周的一些损失
56	Up about three-tenths of a percent if you take a look at the dollar	如果你看一看美元, 大约百分之三点十
57	Strengthening versus the euro the euro falling versus the dollar after that hotter than expected CPI print	欧元对美元的贬值比预期的消费物价指数还要热
58	Speculation at the Fed is going to go more rapidly than people previously thought in its tightening cycle	美联储的投机活动将比人们在紧缩周期中 想象得更快
59	111 38 on the euro versus the dollar and checking in on oil that really has been one of the stealth drivers	111 38欧元对美元 并检查石油 真正一直是隐形驱动器之一
60	It's incredible sell-off in oil prices really propelling people's optimism that potentially we could get	油价惊人的销量 真正激发了人们的乐观
61	Disinflation down the road taking a little bit of that back this morning Brent crude up	今早Brent在路上消散了一点
62	1.8 percent at ninety three dollars and 12 cents a barrel coming up this hour Julian Emmanuel of evercore with the AI trade back	百分之八点八,九十三元,一桶十二美分 这时候,朱利安·埃马纽埃尔 与AI交易回来
63	丹尼尔·纽曼(英语:Daniel Newman),
64	Evaluation and former World Bank president David Malpass as one Fed official labels the latest inflation data borderline	美联储官方将最新通胀数据标榜为边际。
65	Disturbing we begin this hour with tech leading stocks higher after strong results from core	令我们不安的是,我们从这个时刻开始,技术领先的库存在核心产生强烈结果之后会增加。
66	We've Julian Emmanuel of evercore writing the pressure on the AI trade in the data center buildout is slowdown is moderating significantly	数据中心的人工智能交易压力 减速正在明显缓解
67	We are careful and patient buyers of AI centric stocks Julian joins us now for more Julian great to see you	我们小心谨慎 耐心地购买AI核心股票 朱利安现在加入我们 更希望朱利安能见到你
68	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
69	你要买Nvidia吗?
70	We it is part of our basket the AI class of 2027 we don't	我们这是我们篮子的一部分 2027年的AI课,我们不
71	necessarily talk about single stocks	一定要谈单一股票
72	But it is a is core to the basket and we've constructed this basket that you know wants to own chips	但这是篮子的核心 我们建造了这个篮子 你知道它想拥有芯片
73	Wants to own mag 7 wants to own software because we believe that the theme broadly	想要拥有mag 7 想要拥有软件 因为我们相信主题大致
74	Has much further to run so talking more broadly	还要跑得更宽广
75	How much steam did core we've give to the entire trade given the fact that this has been one of the big skepticism is	我们给了整个贸易多少蒸汽 因为这是最大的怀疑论之一
76	that some of these new clouds were kind of harbingers of the bubble to come.	这些新的云层 有点像泡泡
77	Very very important because look if you think	非常重要 因为如果你觉得
78	about the stress in the markets over the last several months the first wave of angst was when the 10 year yield ran	关于过去几个月市场的压力 第一波愤怒是当10年的收益率
79	through 5 percent and went to 536 and then you know the angst around oh no one will ever be able to issue debt again the	到了536,然后你知道 周围的愤怒 哦,没有人能再发行债务
80	hyperscalers and et cetera.	超标等.
81	But this report in one of the credits that people have been most concerned about is really	但是,这个报告 在人们最关心的学分之一
82	real assuring for a credit investor on all levels.	为各级信用投资者提供真正的保证。
83	Is it a feature or a bug that so many of its clients are the big	它的很多客户都是大个子 是它的特性还是错误
84	hyperscalers and are so concentrated in just a handful of names.	超规模的 并且如此集中 在少数的名字。
85	It's a feature.	特写.
86	You can't get around it the same way you	你不能以同样的方式绕过它
87	can't get around the fact that 10 stocks in the S&P 500 account for 41 percent of the way to the index.	在S&P500的10种股票 占指数的41%
88	It's just how this	就是这样
89	entire theme these last four years have developed.	这四年来,整个主题有了发展。
90	We have it.	我们有它。
91	It's uncomfortable but it's a reality that we have to live	感觉很不舒服 但我们必须活下来
92	with and it's a reality that's going to lead to GDP well in excess of 2 percent next year.	明年GDP将超过2%。
93	Can the trade continue in this	交易能继续下去吗?
94	如果Jensen Long被董事会逼下台
95	We think it can.	我们认为它可以。
96	Look will it be a blow.	看那会是一个打击。
97	Absolutely.	当然
98	Has that been reflected in the last several days.	这在过去几天里已经得到反映。
99	But I would point to this.	但我会指出这一点。
100	The NASDAQ is materially higher on	纳斯达克在物质上更高
101	the screen right now than it was first thing Monday morning.	现在的屏幕 比周一早上的第一件事。
102	And that tells you that that this theme is bigger than any key	这告诉你,这个主题 比任何关键
103	woman risk.	女人的风险。
104	So when you think about potentially the next catalyst or litmus test for this trade is it going to be the	因此,当你考虑 潜在的下一个催化剂或试金石测试 对于这种贸易,这将是
105	人类IPO.
106	How are you thinking about that.	或稱
107	Absolutely.	当然
108	I mean it is the same thing as the marquee IPO we had back in	我的意思是,这是同样的事情 我们回到了马奎IPO
109	June that first broke the trillion dollar concept is that it needs to go well.	6月,第一个打破万亿美元的概念 是它需要顺利进行。
110	And lo and behold the new slow around it over	看着它周围的新缓慢
111	the last 24 hours is you know we're starting to think about up sizing the valuation.	过去24小时,你知道我们开始考虑 提高估价的尺度。
112	Well I don't think we were going to	好吧,我不认为我们要去
113	think about that four or five days ago.	想想这四五天前。
114	And that is a positive.	这是积极的。
115	и稱钩玡妓 穦Τ retail
116	participation and we have no reason to think that it won't go smoothly.	我们没有理由认为它不会顺利进行。
117	You know it might be a good thing that the bond	你知道这也许是好事 纽带
118	markets closed today after what happened yesterday.	市场在昨天发生之后今天关闭。
119	You saw the biggest increase in the front end yields going back to	你看到前端最大的增产 回到
120	April of 2025.	2025年4月通车.
121	How much of a torpedo is this and some of the optimism.	鱼雷是多少 和一些乐观。
122	So look in our mind the bond market hit overshot to	所以,看看我们的想法 债券市场打击过度到
123	the upside undershot to the downside in terms of yields the last few weeks.	从过去几周的收成来看,倒数倒数。
124	You're really going right back into the middle of	你真的要回到中间
125	the range.	范围。
126	And I will say point blank.	我会说点空白。
127	We don't think 50s on the table.	我们不认为在桌上50。
128	December they may talk about it.	十二月他们可能会谈论它。
129	They may jawbone	他们可能下巴骨
130	about it.	关于它。
131	Not happening.	不会的
132	OK. And if you think about it is a lot of the reason I mean look oil is 16 17 percent lower than it was	摆 如果你想到它 是一个很大的原因 我的意思是看起来石油比它低16 17%
133	at the end of October right now.	现在10月底
134	And yes we understand that the path through pass throughs take time to pass through.	是的,我们明白,经过的道路需要时间。
135	But when you	但当你
136	think about what Chair Warsh has been saying with regard to in the long term this belief that AI will drive productivity in the	从长远来看,Warsh主席一直说,这种信念是,大赦国际将推动生产力的发展。
137	disinflationary manner you've got to manage the near term noise to get to that long term.	消除通货膨胀的方式,你必须管理 近期的噪音 达到长期。
138	And what we've seen the last few months is	我们过去几个月看到的是
139	that these companies are sensitive to massive gyrations in the fixed income markets.	这些公司对固定收入市场上的大规模扩张十分敏感。
140	I understand that people point to oil and say	我知道人们指着石油说
141	this is going to be disinflation down the pike.	这将会让烟雾消退
142	And I understand that people are saying it's a supply shock and consecutive supply	我理解人们在说 这是一个供应冲击和连续供应
143	shocks and it too will fade.	冲击和它也会消失。
144	Give disinflation a chance.	给脱通货膨胀一个机会。
145	But as Chicago Fed President Austin Gould's we pointed to it was the	但正如芝加哥联邦总统奥斯汀·古尔德所言 我们指出的是
146	services side where you saw inflation broadening out.	服务方面,你看到通货膨胀扩大。
147	You saw increasing pass through in a whole host of different kind of	你看到越来越多的路过 在一个不同的种类
148	areas.	区域。
149	We've talked with different airline executives who said demand has really has hung in there significantly better than	我们和不同的航空公司高管谈过了 他们说需求确实比
150	they expected.	他们期待。
151	At what point do you have to increase your expectations of additional rate hikes kind of like the way that not	什么时候你必须提高你对增加利率的预期 那种方式不是
152	over at Deutsche Bank did last night.	昨晚在德意志银行
153	So you know what.	这么说吧
154	Krishna Guha our economist basically is of the view that this past	Krishna Guha 我们的经济学家基本上 认为过去
155	quarter was sort of peak growth for the cycle and that it's going to start moderating.	季度是周期的顶峰增长, 并且它会开始缓和。
156	OK.	摆
157	If that view is incorrect and we	如果这个观点不正确,我们
158	have no reason to believe at this point that it is again the glide path is towards 2 2 or 2 3 GDP in 20 27.	此时没有理由相信滑翔路线也是在2027年实现2,2或2,3GDP.
159	If growth	如果增长
160	reaccelerates then you do have to reexamine the thesis for the market was almost set up based off what Williams and Jefferson	重新加速,然后你必须重新审视 论文为市场 几乎建立基于什么威廉姆斯和杰斐逊
161	said.	说
162	Really Williams one more hike and then we're done.	真的威廉姆斯再远一点 然后我们就完了
163	None of 20 27.	20个27个都没有
164	Then you have Waller coming out with this kind of	然后你让沃勒带着这种
165	bazooka in a sense really trying to upset the apple cart here is the market at least trying to digest that it's not going to be	从某种意义上说 火箭筒真的想让苹果推车不高兴 至少是想消化它不会是
166	one more 25 and done.	再加一个25就完成了
167	They're probably going to have to hike again in 20 27.	他们可能要在2027年再次登山.
168	Well and this is this is the tricky part right.	这才是最棘手的部分
169	Because I think we came in thinking that it would be sort of as few as possible.	因为我觉得我们想着 尽可能少见一些
170	And that's the normal tendency.	这是正常的趋势。
171	But history	但历史
172	would tell you that that is very rarely the case with Fed hiking cycles.	美联储的徒步周期很少如此
173	But you know from our perspective we'll take Chair	但从我们的观点来看,我们会担任主席
174	Warsh's tack.	华什的塔克。
175	We're not going to give you forward guidance past December.	我们不会在12月前给你前进的指引
176	We definitely think you get 25 in December.	我们肯定认为你在12月得到25。
177	And then	礛
178	let's see what what the data shows and how things start to evolve.	让我们来看看 数据显示什么 和如何开始演变。
179	What's the historic analog for this many different things	对于这些不同的事情,有什么历史模拟
180	hitting the market all at once.	立刻打到市场
181	Everywhere.	到处都是
182	I don't know.	师曰.
183	But I think we need a vacation.	但我认为我们需要一个假期。
184	I mean seriously honestly to	我是说真的
185	celebrate the holiday.	庆祝节日。
186	Julian Emanuel is not getting a vacation.	朱利安·伊曼纽尔没有休假
187	He's going to be sticking with us in the next half hour.	他下半个小时就要和我们在一起了
188	Let's	让我们
189	get you an update on stories elsewhere this morning.	今早在别处给你提供最新消息
190	Here's a brief with Isabelle Lee.	这是伊莎贝尔·李的简介
191	Isabel.	伊莎贝尔
192	Hi Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
193	U.S. Treasury Secretary	美国财政部长
194	Scott Besson正在前往军事基地,
195	According to The New York Times Besson is the	根据《纽约时报》,
196	latest Trump official to be moved to a base or safer housing.	最新的特朗普官员将被转移到基地或更安全的住房.
197	At least six other officials have been moved this year including new	今年至少有6名其他官员被调离,其中包括新的
198	White House chief of staff Stephen Miller and open a eyes quarterly revenue hit 10 million dollars for the first time in the	白宫幕僚长史蒂芬·米勒(Stephen Miller)和开眼季度收入首次突破1000万美元.
199	three months ending in September.	9月结束三个月。
200	That's driven by strong demand for its latest software.	这是由对其最新软件的强烈需求驱动的.
201	Sources telling Bloomberg that the	来源告诉彭博社
202	company's revenue increased nearly 50 percent from the previous quarter.	公司的收入比上一个季度增加了近50%。
203	打开A. I.
204	ended September with roughly 50 billion	大约500亿
205	dollars in annualized revenue.	美元年化收入。
206	And a Chinese university with deep ties to the People's Liberation Army reportedly bought	据报道,一所与人民解放军关系密切的中国大学购买了
207	上个月Nvidia薯片。
208	According to Reuters despite being on a U.S. export blacklist Northwestern Polytechnical University	据路透社报道,尽管美国出口黑名单是西北理工大学
209	bought two H 200 chips and other restricted Nvidia processors.	购买了两台H200芯片和其他受限的Nvidia处理器.
210	That's your Bloomberg brief Lisa.	那是你的彭博简介丽莎。
211	Thank you so much.	非常感谢
212	Isabel	伊莎贝尔
213	image that we're going to hear more of those kinds of stories.	我们将会听到更多这样的故事。
214	I think so.	我想是这样。
215	And also Bloomberg has been reporting so as The New	彭博社也一直以新报的形式报道
216	York Times for well into a year that likely Julian Emanuel of Evercore.	《约克时报》进入一年 很可能是Evercore的朱利安·伊曼纽尔
217	This is Bloomberg surveillance.	这是彭博的监控
218	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
219	Seeing a rebound yesterday after some concerns about what we might see with respect to interest rate hikes turned into a	看到昨天在对利率上涨的一些关切 转变为一种反弹后
220	sell off this morning.	今早卖掉
221	Really trying once again.	再次尝试
222	Maybe today we can actually stick with green on the screen.	也许今天我们可以在屏幕上加绿色
223	1% 9%
224	gains on the Nasdaq futures leading the gain up.	Nasdaq期货收益 领先收益。
225	And you can see even Nvidia in the pre-market trading up more than five percent	你可以看到,即使是Nvidia 在前市场交易 超过5%
226	after already losing almost two trillion dollars of market valuation since the peak in October.	自从10月的高峰以来 已经损失了将近两万亿美元的市场价值
227	Meanwhile people are looking at	同时人们在看
228	the potential for Jensen Wong to step down just to give you a sense of what's going on in the Middle East.	黄詹森下台的可能性 只是为了让你了解中东的情况
229	The flavor is a bit of	味道有点
230	pulling back from the optimism in the past.	从过去的乐观中恢复过来。
231	A bit of a rally underway in the crude space.	在粗糙的空间举行集会
232	Still though New York crew WTI is	虽然纽约的船员WTI
233	firmly below 90 dollars a barrel.	绝对低于90美元一桶。
234	Eighty six dollars and 80 cents.	八十六钱八十分.
235	The thing is right now we're not going to see potentially back to	事情是,现在我们不会看到 潜在的返回
236	that kinetic war and escalation.	动能战争和升级
237	But you have to add a little bit of geopolitical risk into this market given the fact that every	但你必须增加一点 地缘政治风险 在这个市场,事实上,每个
238	single day you can point to a story where it is much more expensive much more harder for tankers to get through the straight of	单日,你可以指一个故事, 更昂贵得多 油轮更难通过直线
239	her moves.	她的动作。
240	And a lot of them in some respects are still dealing with the tax.	而在有些方面,他们中很多人仍在处理税收问题.
241	You just don't really always see them in the press.	你只是不常在媒体上看到他们
242	Yeah.	对
243	Well geopolitical tensions are making their way into the corporate story of big tech under surveillance this morning.	地缘政治的紧张状态 正在演变成大技术公司的故事 今天上午被监视。
244	Nvidia thing about it.	恩维迪亚的事
245	What a dereliction of duty.	何等为渎职.
246	We need a full accounting for Trump's failure to next week.	我们需要对特朗普下星期的失败进行全面说明.
247	The details are	细节是
248	coming out fast and furious.	迅速而愤怒的出来
249	Tyler Kendall joins us now from Washington D.C. Hey Tyler.	泰勒肯德尔现在从华盛顿来接我们
250	Hey Lisa.	嘿,丽莎。
251	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
252	Well pressure	压力很大
253	is definitely mounting here in Washington as today marks the deadline for the Nvidia CEO to reply to House Republicans	今天是恩维迪亚首席执行官 对众议院共和党人做出回应的最后期限
254	requests to appear for this private briefing.	要求出席这次私人简报会。
255	Keep in mind these are the heads of the House Foreign Affairs Intelligence and	记住这些是众议院外交情报局局长
256	China Select Committee that are demanding answers about the affair but also about what steps the company is taking in the wake of	中国选委会要求解答此事,
257	it to institute national security controls.	建立国家安全控制系统
258	And we heard from one of those chairman Republican Brian Mass yesterday on ABC News	我们昨天在ABC新闻上 听到共和党主席布莱恩弥撒的消息
259	who says that so far Jensen Wong has not responded to any of their requests.	黄詹森至今没有回应任何要求
260	Now it's unclear how a potential subpoena would	现在还不清楚 潜在的传票会怎样
261	actually play out.	实际发挥出来。
262	It would probably expire when Republicans lose their committee assignments in the new Congress.	当共和党人失去他们在新国会的委员会任务时,它可能会到期.
263	But Democrats are	但民主党人
264	pledging investigations of their own.	保证自己进行调查。
265	And now there is this heating up debate on Capitol Hill bolstered by hawkish Republicans.	而现在在国会山上 一场激烈的辩论 得到了鹰派共和党的支持
266	This is a bipartisan issue to maybe legislate some tighter export controls related to advanced chips in the wake of this this	这是一个两党的问题,也许立法 一些更严格的出口管制 与先进芯片 之后,
267	affair.	外事,你觉得呢?
268	And that could actually be tied to this must pass legislation.	这实际上可以与此挂钩,必须通过立法。
269	The National National Defense Authorization Act the NDAA	《国防授权法》
270	that Pentagon policy bill which Lisa lawmakers are expected to take up during this lame duck session.	丽莎立法者将在这烂鸭子会议上 讨论的五角大楼政策法案
271	Tyler you and I were both in	泰勒,你和我都参与了
272	China with the president on his prior president Trump knew and when.	中国与总统在前任总统特朗普上,
273	But it of course is raising questions about the thing too	但是它当然也引起了关于这件事的问题
274	happy with China living up to its trade obligations including when it comes to exports of critical minerals.	高兴的是,中国履行了贸易义务,包括关键矿物的出口。
275	Tyler Kendall thank you so	泰勒肯德尔,谢谢你
276	much for that.	非常喜欢
277	We'll catch up with you in the next hour.	下个小时我们会赶上你的
278	Julian Emanuel of Evercore is still with us.	Evercore的朱利安·伊曼纽尔仍然和我们在一起
279	You know the ecosystem will	你知道生态系统会
280	evolve.	进化。
281	You have a lot of other incumbents.	你有很多其他任职者
282	Clearly they don't provide what it is that that Jensen Wong is providing right now.	显然他们没有提供什么 这是Jensen Wong现在提供。
283	But there will be adaptation.	但会有适应。
284	And we think you know similar to all these other moments deep seek and and situational awareness	而且我们觉得你知道 与所有这些其他时刻相似 深思熟虑和了解情况
285	and and you know frontier models different et cetera et cetera that we will get past it successfully.	并且你知道边疆模型 不同的等等,我们会成功通过它。
286	At a minimum does Nvidia	至少恩维迪亚是
287	need to come out to the public and share with its investors its succession plan.	需要向公众公开并与投资者分享其继承计划。
288	Because they don't have one right now.	因为他们现在没有
289	Well I think	我觉得
290	when you think about companies in general the script is whenever you have controversy like this you just have to be more	当你想到一般的公司时 剧本就是每当你遇到这样的争议... ...你只需要变得更好
291	transparent.	透明。
292	Whatever that is there has to be a greater level of communication.	不管是什么,都必须加强沟通。
293	Are you starting to think about more of heightened export	你开始考虑增加出口
294	controls because that could potentially get in before the end of the year.	控制,因为有可能在年底前进入。
295	So it's not just heightened export controls but remember	所以这不仅仅是加强出口控制 还要记住
296	and there's the news flow has been so intense the last several weeks is that we forget a month ago or so we were talking about you	过去几周的新闻流很激烈 我们忘记了一个月前
297	know people within the industry wanting to you know do more around safety and guardrails and regulation et cetera.	行业里的人想知道更多 在安全、护栏和监管等方面
298	And maybe just maybe	也许只是也许
299	the glass half full interpretation is that there will be a little bit more oversight you know without killing the good internet	玻璃半满的诠释是 会有一点点更多的监督 你知道,不杀好互联网
300	revolution let alone the AI revolution.	更别提AI革命了
301	So in our mind you know could this sit at the margin dent the earnings growth profile.	所以在我们心目中,你知道, 这可能坐落到 收入增长的边缘。
302	Look at	看着
303	the index level.	指数水平。
304	Consensus is calling for about 15.6 percent growth in 2027.	共识要求2027年增长15.6%左右。
305	We think it's probably closer to 10 percent.	我们认为它可能接近10%。
306	Double digits	两位数
307	is still likely to be good enough for stocks.	仍可能足以储存。
308	But again I just think this whole idea of adaptability and flexibility and seizing	但我还是觉得这整个想法 适应性和灵活性
309	opportunities as they arrive is the way it's going to evolve.	机会的到来是它进化的方式。
310	Do you think though that more restraints put on the tech sector could slow the U.S.	你是否认为对技术部门施加更多的限制 可以减缓美国的速度?
311	economy.	经济。
312	And this is sort of one consideration that people have been looking at in going into bonds.	这是人们在债券交易中考虑的一个因素。
313	Do you think that that's a feasible kind of	你觉得这样可行吗?
314	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}但也许不会像其他指数一样 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你应该知道
315	Well it's definitely	这绝对是
316	feasible.	可行的。
317	And when people try and model what a eyes contribution to GDP is is that there's a tendency to under count the knock on effects to	当人们尝试模拟 眼力对GDP的贡献是 有一种倾向 低调计算效果
318	unemployment and you know gas station X near Elon's new town wouldn't have existed or and things like that.	你知道埃隆新城附近的X加油站 根本不存在 之类的事
319	But but the fact of the	但事实上
320	matter is is that you know in general you're at this point where there's uncertainty.	问题是,你一般都知道你正处于不确定的阶段。
321	We are four years into a bull market.	我们进入公牛市场已经四年了
322	It should be a	应该是一个
323	little creakier at this age but by no means over.	这年头有点油炸 但绝对没有结束
324	And the idea of whether you're a Democrat or Republican the last thing you want to do is be	而关于你是民主党人还是共和党人 你最不想做的事是
325	pinned as the catalyst for an economic slowdown.	作为经济放缓的催化剂。
326	That's off the table or should be off the table.	已经不在了 或者应该不在了
327	Julian Emanuel thank you so much for being	朱利安·伊曼纽尔 非常感谢你
328	with us this morning.	今天早上和我们一起
329	Julian Emanuel of Evercore with us here in New York.	永远的朱利安·伊曼纽尔和我们一起在纽约
330	And truly the Nvidia story is just pretty mind numbing when you look at	而Nvidia的故事真的让人麻木了
331	all the details that keep coming out minute after minute.	所有的细节 不停地出来 一分钟又一分钟。
332	That last point that Julian said you don't want to be the catalyst for potentially an	朱利安说的最后一点 你不想成为 潜在的催化剂
333	economic recession or pulling back some of that growth.	经济不景气 或削减一些增长。
334	And that could be one of the reasons I'm sure there's a few.	这可能是一个原因 我敢肯定,有一些。
335	One of the reasons why maybe the	原因之一 也许
336	president sort of brushed this off.	总统把这事理清了
337	我不能忍受没有让Jensen Wong 在Nvidia的顶端 因为这对A. I.
338	trade and how bullish we as an administration have been.	以及我们作为政府的欺负。
339	Pretty damning reporting coming out against this White House against	对白宫的报导
340	commerce.	商业。
341	Isabel Lee with your morning movers.	伊莎贝尔·李和你的晨间搬运工
342	Core we very much in focus after that is better than expected earnings yesterday.	在那之后,我们非常关注核心,比昨天的预期收入好。
343	This is	这是
344	Bloomberg.	彭博报.
345	Stocks getting a lift this morning after yesterday's sell off getting optimism from the tech trade despite the ongoing noise	股市在昨天的销售之后 今早被抬走 尽管不断的噪音 却从科技贸易中乐观起来
346	around Jensen Wong.	在黄詹森身边
347	Take a look at futures on the NASDAQ up more than one point nine percent now ahead of the market open S.P.	看看这个纳斯达克的期货 超过百分之九的市场开放率
348	futures up nine tenths of a percent bond markets are closed today.	债券市场百分之九的期货今天关闭了
349	Yesterday was a really painful day in the bond market.	昨天是债券市场上非常痛苦的一天。
350	It might be	也许吧
351	to give everybody a day off to really reassess and think about things.	给大家一天时间 真正重新评估和思考事情。
352	Meanwhile if you take a look at the euro dollar you can see a	同时,如果你看一下欧元,你可以看到
353	stronger dollar on the heels of the same thing that caused that sell off in the bond market.	更强的美元跟随 导致债券市场出售的东西。
354	Hotter than expected CPI and an	比预期的消费物价指数和
355	expectation at this Federal Reserve will hotly debate whether they are going to hike by 50 basis points in December and in the oil	美联储希望他们能在12月增加50个基点,
356	patch a little bit of a retracement from the recent sell off that you had been seeing higher by about one point four percent in	从你最近看到高点的销量中 补上一点 4%
357	the bond market.	债券市场。
358	And not new to dollars and 74 cents still though a really subdued sense of geopolitics.	美元和74美分之间并不新鲜, 但仍有一种非常低沉的地缘政治感。
359	Yeah you could see that in	是啊,你可以看到这一点
360	the price right now.	价格现在。
361	The fact that Brent crude is still staying under one hundred dollars a barrel is a huge relief for this oil	布伦特原油 仍然停留在每桶100美元下 这对石油来说是一个巨大的解脱
362	market.	市场。
363	Potentially the market is just pricing in the fact that we're still out of the woods.	市场可能只是定价 因为我们还没有离开森林。
364	It's still status quo.	仍维持原状.
365	We're still	我们还是
366	leaving this new purgatory which means yeah products getting out.	离开这个新的炼狱 意味着有产品出来。
367	But how much more expensive is that product when you consider the	但是当你考虑
368	is needed on these tankers.	需要这些油轮。
369	And the fact is there are stories every other day every single day that the IRGC is still going after	事实是,每隔一天有报道说 伊斯兰革命卫队仍在追杀
370	some of these boats.	一些这些船。
371	So we're not out of the woods.	故不从林中出.
372	We just don't have a diplomatic breakthrough.	我们只是没有外交突破.
373	But that does seem to be a	但是这似乎是一个
374	signal that this White House wants to put out there.	表示白宫想放在那里
375	They are willing to do some sort of deal.	他们愿意做某种交易。
376	Maybe maybe there isn't an	也许没有
377	escalation to de-escalate at least on the horizon.	升级,至少会在地平线上降级。
378	Once shot stock very much in focus is core weaves world.	一旦大量集中的股票 核心编织世界。
379	We're all just	我们都只是
380	living in it three hours away from the cash up.	住在它三个小时 现金上升。
381	And here's your morning movers with Isabelle.	这是你和伊莎贝尔的早间搬家
382	Isabel highly.	伊莎贝尔高级。
383	So we are living in it	所以,我们生活在其中
384	indeed because he does stock here up nearly 13 percent.	事实上,因为他在这里的股票 将近13%。
385	So the company raised their full year revenue guidance and that really	所以公司提高了他们的全年收入指导 这真的
386	boosted a lot of invent investors sentiment.	激发了许多发明投资者情绪.
387	You can almost hear the sire for leaf Lisa from investors because the past weeks we've	你几乎听得到 利萨从投资者的叶子 因为我们过去几周
388	saw near clouds really rattled after the sell off.	看见附近云层在卖掉后非常震撼
389	And then we've said they're signing new customers and expanding the	然后我们说他们签了新客户 并扩大了
390	infrastructure to be sure though that there's still concerns regarding its heavy spending and also its aggressive infrastructure debt.	尽管人们仍然担心 基础设施的巨额支出 以及其激进的基础设施债务
391	But for now investors are choosing to look at the good news which is why you see green on your screen and it's really lifting the	但现在投资者选择看好消息 这就是为什么你在屏幕上看到绿色 它真的抬起
392	entire ecosystem also because you're seeing the likes of Bloom Energy also high higher in pre-market trade.	整个生态系统 也因为你看到的类似Bloom Energy 在市场前贸易中也很高
393	This is an	这个是
394	industrial data center complex.	工业数据中心综合体.
395	You see a big pop there by nearly 10 percent.	你看到一个大流行在那里近10%。
396	And we have to talk about Nvidia Lisa because the	我们必须谈谈恩维迪亚·丽莎 因为
397	stock is in the green this morning higher by more than 5 percent in pre-market trade.	今天早上的股票在绿色 超过5%的市场前贸易。
398	But that's after a two day snap that we	但这是两天后,我们
399	saw wiping out nearly 450 billion dollars in market value at the center.	中心市面价值冲销近4500亿美元。
400	But at the center of it all is still Jensen Huang.	但事情的中心仍然是黄詹森
401	He is	没错
402	still facing a PR crisis and a political crisis.	仍然面临公关危机和政治危机。
403	Investors are questioning not only the earnings outlook of the company investors	投资者不仅质疑公司投资者的收入前景
404	are questioning the risks surrounding Jensen Huang's leadership political governance issues and also tighter export	正在质疑黄詹森 领导政治治理问题的风险 还有更严格的出口
405	restrictions.	限制。
406	同样,Jensen Huang 不仅是Nvidia投资案的重心 而且他也是
407	company.	连队。
408	He's the first company to have a C&P year today and also one of the lowest in the Philippines.	他是今天拥有C&P年的第一家公司,也是菲律宾最低的公司之一.
409	Philadelphia semiconductor	费城半导体
410	index here today.	今天这里的索引。
411	Lisa thank you so much.	丽莎非常感谢你
412	Isabel on our radar this morning bankers for entropic looking to raise the company's	伊莎贝尔今早在我们的雷达上... ... ......
413	valuation.	估价。
414	According to the Financial Times strong investor demand has underwriters looking for a one and a half trillion dollar	据《金融时报》报道 投资者需求强劲 保险商想要1.5万亿美元
415	valuation or more.	估价或更多。
416	Yesterday's filing shows a fully diluted target of one point four trillion dollars.	昨天的备案显示 目标被完全淡化了 1点4兆美元
417	Meanwhile open A.I.	同时打开A. I.
418	is seeing a nearly 50 percent jump in revenue.	收入有近50%的激增。
419	A source is telling us here at Bloomberg the company's quarterly revenue hit 10	有消息告诉我们在彭博 公司季度收入高达10美元
420	billion dollars for the first time in three months.	3个月内首次获得10亿美元.
421	打开A. I.
422	telling investors it closed out September with roughly 50	告诉投资者,九月结束 大约50个
423	billion dollars in annualized income.	年收入10亿美元。
424	And finally on the Nvidia story again the focus keeps turning back to the Commerce	最后,关于Nvidia的故事再次 焦点不断回转 商业
425	Department.	部门.
426	What did they know.	他们知道什么?
427	When did they know it and how did it affect frankly their investigations into it.	他们什么时候知道,以及它如何坦率地影响他们对此的调查。
428	The Commerce	商业
429	Department is responsible for the U.S. chip policy.	部门负责美国芯片政策.
430	And when you have the general counsel of Nvidia calling and trying to direct	当你得到恩维迪亚的总顾问 打电话并试图指挥
431	some of that policy when it comes to customers of theirs like Megaspeed which we and the New York Times have been reporting for	我们和《纽约时报》都报道过
432	months now that they've been under investigation for potentially giving some of these high technology chips to China.	几个月前,他们被调查 可能将这些高科技芯片 交给中国。
433	This is	这是
434	where it becomes a massive problem.	在那里它成为一个巨大的问题。
435	And I have people on Wall Street messaging me all the time now since this story broke.	自从这个故事破灭以来,我一直有人在华尔街给我发短信。
436	Where is Howard Lotnick.	霍华德・洛尼克在哪?
437	Where is the Commerce Department on this.	商务部在哪?
438	Why have we not heard from them because people want answers.	为什么我们没有听到他们的消息,因为人们想要答案。
439	So do Democrats in the House.	民主党人也在众议院
440	And there are going to be a ton of subpoenas at the Commerce Department from Howard Lotnick on	商务部会有一吨传票 从霍华德·洛特尼克。
441	down in terms of how did they get to some of these decisions on chips.	他们是如何做出这些关于筹码的决定的
442	And was it driven by Jensen Wong himself.	是黄詹森亲自开的
443	You know there	你知道吗?
444	are going to be all of these inquiries and hearings and I'm sure this will get carried out.	将会是所有这些 询问和听证会 我敢肯定,这会得到完成。
445	But there's a bigger question that	但有一个更大的问题
446	was raised yesterday which I thought was a really important point.	昨天提起的 我认为这很重要
447	Where is our chip export policy.	我们的芯片出口政策在哪里?
448	What is it right.	这是正确的。
449	I mean	我是说
450	there's been an honest to goodness debate about how much the U.S. should keep dominance around the world by selling chips to	关于美国应该如何通过出售芯片 来维持世界主导地位的问题,
451	the likes of China versus keeping some of the more advanced chips here to continue with the progress in the elite versus China.	与中国相比,
452	But we don't have clarity do we about what exactly the chip policy is right now coming from Washington.	但是,我们并不清楚 芯片政策究竟是从华盛顿来的。
453	Well the latest has been	最近的情况是
454	that China is allowed to buy the H two hundreds and then we would the United States would get some sort of tariff back because of	允许中国买下两百H 然后我们想让美国回税 因为
455	that some sort of tax on them.	对他们征收某种税
456	The United States would be able to make some money off of this.	美国将能够从中获利。
457	But remember it was China that said	但记得是中国说
458	actually we don't want the H two hundreds and they weren't actually filling their orders.	实际上,我们不想要H两百 而且他们实际上没有填写他们的订单。
459	But at the same time China was doing	但与此同时,中国正在做
460	that we have seen time and time again a number of stories that actually they were getting access already to H two hundreds and	我们一遍又一遍地看到一些故事 他们实际上已经接触到H200
461	maybe even more advanced chips.	也许更先进的芯片。
462	Those are the chips that the president has really drawn a line on like the Blackwell drawing a line	这些是总统真正画的筹码 就像布莱克威尔画的筹码
463	that we cannot give them to China.	我们不能把它们交给中国。
464	Well are they using them anyway.	好吧,他们使用他们反正。
465	Yeah.	对
466	Well this is going to be an ongoing kind of theme under	这将是一个持续的主题 在下面
467	the radar as we talk about anthropic as they take their roadshow to the rest of Wall Street.	我们谈论人类的雷达, 他们带着他们的路展到华尔街的其他地方。
468	The banks underwriting its	银行承保
469	blockbuster IPO looking to boost the company's valuation with trading expected to begin next week.	Blockbuster IPO 期待促进公司的估值 交易预计将在下周开始。
470	Daniel Newman of Futurum Group	Futurum集团的丹尼尔·纽曼
471	is saying constructive writing the amount of doubt that remains around AI adoption is one of the great disconnects of our time.	写一些关于AI收养的疑问 是我们时代的一大脱节
472	Token usage	调试用法
473	is going parabolic.	正在去抛物。
474	This is what exponential growth looks like.	这就是指数增长的样子。
475	Daniel joins us now from work.	丹尼尔现在下班了
476	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
477	Hey good morning.	嗨,早上好,你好吗?
478	How do you	你好吗?
479	keep track of all of this and whether we're going parabolic to the up or parabolic to the down based on some of the personal foibles and	跟踪所有这一切, 以及我们是去抛物线上还是去抛物线上 根据一些个人障碍和
480	questions around national security.	国家安全问题。
481	I mean we're going up.	我是说我们要上去了
482	There is absolutely no way that you can look at what's going on.	绝对不可能看清发生了什么
483	You look at	你看着
484	the open AI numbers you just reported.	你刚刚报告的公开AI号码
485	You look at entropic its recent S1 the adaptations they've made to it to show even faster growth.	你看看它最近的S1 对它所做的适应 以显示更快的生长
486	You look	你看着
487	at core weaves results yesterday.	昨天的核心编织结果。
488	You look at what's happening.	你看看发生了什么。
489	And like I said you can draw doubt.	就像我说的,你可以表示怀疑。
490	You can have credit risk.	你可以有信用风险。
491	You can say	你可以说
492	there's policy risk.	有政策风险。
493	You can say there's export control and risks around the world with our diffusion of AI.	你可以说,通过我们扩散AI,全球都有出口管制和风险.
494	What you can't say is that	你不能说,
495	adoption isn't happening.	收养是不会发生的。
496	You know people looked at the entropic business and I think the most bearish case is people wanted to come out	你知道人们在看 热带的生意, 我认为最熊熊的案件 是人们想出来
497	and say like they're burning tons of cash.	并说,就像他们燃烧吨现金。
498	They will no way they're going to be able to raise enough cash.	他们不可能筹到足够的现金
499	And then they came out with their	然后他们出来 他们的
500	S1.	第1节。
501	It's like well wow over the last year they've burned about 10 billion dollars.	这就像很好哇 在过去的一年 他们已经烧了大约100亿美元。
502	And for a company that's planning to come out in IPO	对于一个计划出厂的公司来说
503	somewhere between one one and a half and two trillion depending on which news you're reading you're saying 10 billion dollars of burns is	大约1.5到2万亿 取决于你读到哪条新闻 你说100亿美元烧伤
504	really nothing for a company has that kind of momentum.	对于一个公司来说 没有什么有那种动力
505	So all the things are indicating positive but there's this kind of black cloud	所以所有的东西都表明是积极的 但有这种黑云
506	around AI that kind of comes out every week.	周而复始的AI。
507	You know it's been canceled six or seven times a week.	你知道它已经取消 每周六七次。
508	I would say daily daily.	我每天都会说
509	I think that we've got a	我认为我们有一个
510	lot of I was supposed to be at a basketball game Sunday.	很多我本该参加周日的篮球比赛
511	I was there when it was breaking and my phone was exploding with media.	电话被媒体爆破时我在场
512	I'm so sorry for	对不起
513	your loss of the baseball basketball game.	你输了棒球篮球比赛
514	Look I do think though there is a real question about the run rate not necessarily in twenty	你看,我确实认为 虽然有一个真正的问题 关于运行率 不一定在20
515	twenty seven but twenty thirty twenty thirty one.	27岁,233岁
516	Given the fact that companies are looking at their AI related bills and saying whoa this is	鉴于公司正在研究与AI有关的账单 并说,哇,这是
517	getting a little bit too much.	有点太过分了
518	They want the price of tokens to come down.	他们想让象征性物的价格降下来。
519	They want to pay less for the frontier models.	他们想为边疆模特少花钱
520	So at what point do you	所以,你什么时候
521	need to see adoption truly go parabolic and even beyond in order to kind of offset the decline in pricing that the rest of mainstream is	需要看到收养真的去抛物,甚至更远 为了抵消价格的下降, 其余主流是
522	demanding.	严格。
523	I think all that's actually happening.	我认为这一切是实际发生的。
524	This is one of those moments where if we if we pull the plug too soon we're going to miss	如果我们太快拉断插头 我们就会错过
525	the inflection.	阴阳交错
526	The inflection is where utilization obviously surpasses and these costs of tokens continue to come down.	失败之处是利用率明显超过使用率,这些象征性费用继续下降。
527	Right.	对
528	We heard	我们听说了
529	it was going to be the China models that would disrupt and no one would use entropic.	这将会是中国模式的破坏, 没有人会使用亚热带。
530	And then oh my gosh this month what did they hit 80	然后,哦,我的天哪,这个月 他们打80
531	billion of error.	10亿个错误。
532	There's a very realistic chance they're going to exit this year at one hundred billion dollars of error.	他们今年有非常现实的机会以1000亿美元的错误退出.
533	So clearly	这么明显
534	utilization is taking place.	正在使用中。
535	Profit is taking place.	利润正在发生。
536	I think what the market is really screaming for though is where does ROI happen at the	我认为市场真正在尖叫的 是ROI在哪里发生的
537	next layer.	下一层。
538	So I call it you know the sand to sass which is basically you know silicon to sass like everyone knows how money is made right	所以,我叫它,你知道沙子 萨斯,基本上你知道硅 萨斯,像每个人都知道 如何赚钱
539	now.	现在
540	You know the chip makers selling.	你知道芯片制造商卖的
541	You got the packaging companies you got the foundries you've got the infrastructure builders you got the	你有包装公司 有铸造公司 有基础设施建设公司
542	clouds and then they're selling.	云然后卖.
543	But then you're saying what about the pharmaceutical company that's spending a billion dollars a year on AI	但你在说制药公司 每年在AI上花费10亿美元
544	programs.	程序。
545	Are they able to justify that investment and keep and keep spending that way.	他们是否能够证明这种投资是合理的,并保持和保持这种支出。
546	What about manufacturing that's trying to put	制造业呢?
547	automation on their show on their shop floors and trying to improve.	在商店的地板上进行自动化表演,并试图改进。
548	And I think the problem is we have a we have a metric issue right	我认为问题在于我们有一个问题 我们有一个问题是正确的
549	now.	现在
550	What are we measuring when a pharmaceutical company is shortening drug discovery or when a manufacturer is in improving their	在制药公司缩短药物发现时间或制造商改善药物发现时间时,我们要衡量什么?
551	production volumes.	生产量。
552	And I think it shows up in worker productivity.	我认为它表现在工人的生产力上。
553	I think it shows up in gross GDP.	我认为它出现在国内生产总值中。
554	But I've said this over the last	但我上次说过了
555	week you know before the Jensen thing happened when we were talking about the election things happening.	在Jensen的事发生前一周 我们谈论选举的事
556	I said you know GDP growth in	我说你知道GDP的增长
557	the U.S. for sure is AI.	美国肯定是AI
558	Like that is the GDP growth here in this country.	这就像这个国家的GDP增长。
559	But I do think the diffusion of AI into industry and the	但我确实认为 AI的传播 产业和
560	ability to measure that diffusion meaningfully will continue to cause this headwind because people will keep saying we're spending too	因为人们会不停地说我们正在花钱
561	much money.	很多钱。
562	We can't rationalize it in the business.	我们不能在生意上合理化
563	But the earnings are by last argument there.	但最后的论据是收入
564	It is showing up in the earnings.	它出现在收入中。
565	I	一、导 言
566	mean while tech is trailing the S&P overall.	当科技在S&P总体领先时,
567	If you looked at earnings you would think that last month you'd say like gosh these AI	如果你看收入 你会认为上个月你会说 像上帝的这些AI
568	companies are doing great.	公司做得很好。
569	A large swath of the S&P had great performances but everything's selling 30 40 50 60 percent as if AI is not	S&P大片的演出很精彩 但每件东西都卖了30405060% 好像AI不是
570	happening.	发生。
571	So it's been incredibly fascinating to watch the disconnect that's taking place in the market.	因此,看到市场中发生的断开 令人难以置信的迷人。
572	You mentioned Jensen.	你提到了詹森。
573	So	这么说
574	Nvidia chips are the linchpin of this whole trade.	Nvidia芯片是整个贸易的关键
575	It's the data centers.	这是数据中心。
576	It's all of these companies.	都是这些公司
577	Does Nvidia still be this	恩维迪亚还是这样吗?
578	great amazing company if Jensen Wong is forced to step down.	如果Jensen Wong被迫下台的话 公司真是太棒了
579	I think that was a great loaded question because the first question is	我认为这是一个巨大的问题 因为第一个问题是
580	whether he does have to step down.	他是否必须下台。
581	And I think that is really going to depend on this investigation.	我认为这真的要取决于这次调查。
582	It's going to be a very heavy	会很重的
583	Nvidia处理这个重量的时期 因为没有Jensen Wong和Jensen的话 市场不认识Nvidia
584	had an extramarital affair and what they're saying is true and what the board has said is true and that's the extent of it.	有过婚外情 他们说的是真的 董事会说的话是真实的 这就是范围
585	There's a	有一个
586	very realistic probability he survives this.	他活下来的概率非常现实
587	If Jensen you know was giving preference to China enabling these these companies	如果你知道Jensen在优先考虑中国 允许这些公司
588	through Singapore to give access to Blackwell or next generation chips if he risked national security there is no survival.	若他冒着国家安全的风险,
589	The	那个
590	interesting things I don't think enough people are talking about with Nvidia right now though is that this company first of all its	有意思的是,我觉得现在有人在和Nvidia谈的不够多,不过,这家公司首先
591	balance sheet versus its peers is is completely unparalleled.	资产负债表与同行相比是完全无与伦比的。
592	This company has the supply chain locked down for multiple years.	这家公司的供应链被锁了好几年
593	You	你们
594	think about foundry access with TSMC.	想想与TSMC的铸币访问
595	You think about wafers packaging.	你想想华夫饼包装
596	You think about all the optical networking.	你想想所有的光学网络。
597	And of course	当然
598	it has this entire ecosystem of clouds that have built specialized on its equipment.	它拥有整个云层的生态系统 专门建造在它的设备上
599	And you've got hyperscalers that while	而且你还有超规模的
600	they're trying to build their own chips have a multi-year ramp to get to the point where they can build enough of them.	他们试图建造自己的芯片 拥有一个多年的斜拉桥 以达到他们可以 建造足够多的芯片。
601	They all	他们都是
602	need Nvidia.	需要恩维迪亚。
603	So now you've got a company that's going to have potentially a trillion dollars of cash on its balance sheet over a	所以,现在你有一个公司 可能有一个万亿美元的现金 在资产负债表上超过一个
604	couple of years.	两年。
605	And you're basically saying can you put your own version of Tim Cook in this after Steve Jobs.	你基本上在说 你能把自己的提姆·库克版本 放在史蒂夫·乔布斯之后吗
606	You know that can	你知道这可以
607	basically be a maniacal execution machine for this business and keep it basically running against the road map that Jensen sent	基本上是一个疯狂的处决机器 为这个生意,保持 它基本上运行 与路线图 詹森发送
608	before a potential departure.	在可能离开之前
609	And I think I think it would be very hard because AMD all the customers could go to AMD tomorrow and say	我觉得这很难 因为AMD所有客户 明天都可以去AMD说
610	you know what we don't like Jensen anymore.	你知道我们不喜欢Jensen什么
611	His character is bad.	他的性格很恶劣.
612	We're worried about whether or not he's a national security risk.	我们担心他是否是国家安全风险.
613	We	我们
614	want to work with you.	想跟你一起工作吗?
615	She can't ramp at even close to the pace of which we're building.	她连我们所建设的速度都爬不上去
616	I mean our forecast said it could be 14	我的意思是,我们的预测 说这可能是14
617	trillion dollars of total capex between now and 2030.	从现在到2030年,总封顶的万亿美元。
618	That number sits well over half of that goes to Nvidia.	这个数字占了恩维迪亚的一半
619	It's interesting	这很有趣
620	you think he can even survive the extramarital affair because this was not just someone that's alleged spy.	你觉得他甚至能渡过婚外情 因为这不只是所谓的间谍
621	It's a customer member	是客户会员
622	Steve Easterbrook at McDonald's had a step down because of having an affair with a colleague.	麦当劳的史蒂夫·伊斯特布鲁克(Steve Easterbrook)因为和一个同事有外遇而下台.
623	This was a customer of Nvidia.	这是恩维迪亚的客户
624	Well	这个嘛
625	that that actually the difference is it's in the policy of most of these companies.	其实区别在于 大部分公司的政策
626	If it's a colleague and not reported you have to	如果是同事,你必须报告
627	report it.	报告
628	I mean Jeff Bezos Sergey Brin obviously Bill Gates later in his career.	我是说杰夫·贝佐斯·谢尔盖·布林 很明显是比尔·盖茨的职业生涯后期
629	This is not an unfounded thing	这不是没有根据的事
630	among founders CEOs in powerful positions having these relationships.	在创始人CEO中担任着有这些关系的重要职务。
631	It's unfortunate.	这是不幸的。
632	It's a certain black eye on his	他眼睛有点黑
633	character and it's something that I think a subset of it's very interesting to look at the Internet right now because there's a	我觉得现在看互联网很有意义 因为现在有个
634	subset of the population right.	人口分集对。
635	Half are like who cares.	一半就像谁在乎。
636	You know he's a he's a you know he's a legend.	你知道他是个传奇人物
637	He's a baller.	他是一个球员。
638	Let him do	让他做吧
639	what he wants.	他想怎样就怎样
640	我是说你读过Finnex
641	It's actually incredible.	其实不可思议.
642	And then there's the other half.	还有另一半
643	It's like I don't want anything to do	好像我什么都不想做一样
644	with this guy.	和这家伙。
645	You know he's an ethical.	你知道他是个道德的人
646	How can he possibly disrespect his wife and his family.	他怎么能不尊重他的妻子和家人
647	She pondered what her	她想着她的想法
648	engagement ring just to make sure they had enough money to get.	订婚戒指只是为了确保 他们有足够的钱得到。
649	So so obviously the market is very torn on this.	所以很明显,这个市场已经崩溃了。
650	But in the end	但最终
651	we've seen the Bezos survive.	我们看到贝佐人活下来了
652	I even saw one meme online that was like the post-affair rally and it showed how much Google and	我甚至在网上看到一个 meme, 就像是 之后的集会, 它显示了多少谷歌和
653	Amazon and these different stocks went up after these founders had their indiscretions.	亚马逊和这些不同的股票 是在这些创始人有其不端之处之后上升的。
654	Daniel Newman.	丹尼尔·纽曼.
655	Thank you so much for	非常感谢你
656	being with us this morning.	今早和我们在一起
657	Daniel Newman of Futurum Group.	富图鲁姆集团的丹尼尔·纽曼.
658	Do you think he's going to keep his leather jackets.	你觉得他会留着他的皮夹克吗?
659	Yeah I think the	是的,我觉得
660	actually I've never seen him without a leather jacket.	其实我从来没有见过他 没有皮夹克。
661	Does anybody else adopt the leather jacket right now.	其他人现在有没有接受皮夹克?
662	Is a tech founder.	是一个科技创始人。
663	Probably not.	也许不是。
664	I'm just going to go out on a limb and say that I just want to stick to their hoodies.	我只是要走出去的四肢 并说,我只是想 坚持他们的头罩。
665	I think maybe no.	我想也许没有。
666	No signing in	没有签名
667	different places.	不同的地点
668	Let's get to an update on stories elsewhere this morning.	今天早上我们来谈谈别处的故事
669	Here is a blimper brief with Isabelle Lee as well.	和伊莎贝尔·李也一起写了一篇书
670	Hi Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
671	House Republicans blocking the impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.	众议院共和党人阻止了对国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的弹劾.
672	The measure now goes to the House Judiciary	措施现在由众议院司法部门负责
673	Committee where it is likely to stall until Democrats take the majority in January.	委员会可能拖延到1月民主党占多数。
674	President Donald Trump held the vote as the	唐纳德·特朗普总统以
675	exoneration of a great American patriot.	免除一位伟大的美国爱国者的罪责.
676	And America's top diplomat in China says the situation with Nvidia is testing the	而美国在中国的顶尖外交家说 与Nvidia的情况正在测试
677	relationship between Washington.	华盛顿之间的关系。
678	U.S. ambassador to China David Perdue saying national security is part of the economic	美国驻华大使David Perdue说国家安全是经济的一部分
679	conversation because economic security is national security.	因为经济安全是国家安全
680	So what we're doing with China is bumpy right now.	所以,我们做的中国 现在很颠簸。
681	英国AI
682	company and scale may delay its 35 billion dollar IPO.	公司和规模可能会推迟其350亿美元的IPO.
683	The Telegraph reporting that executives at the company are assessing	公司高管正在评估的电报
684	whether to pause efforts to go public until next year.	是否要暂停努力 公开到明年。
685	A delay would mark the latest setback for the company after Microsoft	微软公司最近遭遇挫折,
686	pulled out of a deal to take space at the company's flagship UK last month.	上个月从公司旗舰英国的空地上脱身
687	That's your bloomer brief Lisa.	这是你的开花者简介丽莎。
688	Thank you so much	谢谢
689	Isabelle.	伊莎贝尔
690	Up next.	下一个
691	Dealing with the data.	处理数据
692	It's another distressing report borderline disturbing.	这是另一个令人不安的报告 边界线扰动。
693	So we've got a real	所以,我们有一个真正的
694	inflation issue on our hands that has been developing and we're going to have to deal with that.	我们手上的通货膨胀问题一直在发展,我们必须处理。
695	For our World Bank president David	为了我们的世界银行总裁大卫
696	Malpass joins next.	马尔帕斯下一个加入。
697	This is Bloomberg surveillance.	这是彭博的监控
698	Yesterday was a tumultuous day as people assess the likelihood of a 50 basis	昨天是混乱的一天 人们评估50个基础的可能性
699	point rate hike come December.	点速升幅是12月
700	Today we're taking back some of that negativity giving more positivity to the tech trade on the	今天我们要收回一些负面反应 让科技贸易更积极
701	heels of core weaves better than expected earnings up one point eight percent on NASDAQ futures bond markets are taking a	在纳斯达克期货债券市场上,核心成交率比预期收入高1个百分点
702	step further for Veterans Day.	退伍军人日再往前走
703	And really a question here going forward about how much people are going to buy the dip in the	这里有个问题要问 有多少人会买下水
704	bond space.	债券空间。
705	We can sort of use it a proxy of the euro dollar trade.	我们可以把它作为欧元交易的代名词。
706	The euro the lowest going back to the end of October.	欧元是10月底最低的。
707	One	一个
708	eleven thirty eight.	十一点三十八分
709	The dollar gaining ascendant on this idea that you could have a newly hawkish Federal Reserve under	美元不断攀升的这个想法 你可以有一个 新鹰美联储下
710	surveillance this morning.	今早的监控
711	Dealing with the data.	处理数据
712	It's another distressing report borderline disturbing.	这是另一个令人不安的报告 边界线扰动。
713	So we've got a real	所以,我们有一个真正的
714	inflation issue on our hands that has been developing and we're going to have to deal with that.	我们手上的通货膨胀问题一直在发展,我们必须处理。
715	The employment side is doing	就业方面正在做
716	pretty well.	不错
717	The inflation side is not doing well and we're going to have to come to terms with that if this inflation is going to	通货膨胀方面表现不好,我们不得不接受 如果通货膨胀要
718	prove persistent.	证明坚持不懈。
719	Here's the latest Fed officials sounding the alarm on inflation with a growing number opening the door to	这是最新的 美联储官员敲响通货膨胀警钟 越来越多的人打开了门
720	more aggressive rate hikes in the coming months.	在未来几个月里,利率会上升
721	This comes of course after a hotter than expected CPI print yesterday.	这当然是在昨天比预期的 消费物价指数更热之后发生的。
722	Former	前一个
723	World Bank president David Malpass writing in an op ed in The Wall Street Journal even with better data inflation is a flawed guide to	世界银行行长David Malpass在《华尔街日报》的一篇评论文章中写道,即使数据通货膨胀较好,也是一种有缺陷的指南。
724	setting rates.	设定费率。
725	Further rate increases aren't likely to be effective against the current inflation.	进一步提高利率不太可能对当前的通货膨胀有效.
726	David joins us now for more.	大卫现在加入我们了
727	David great to see you.	大卫很高兴见到你。
728	Nice to see you Lisa.	很高兴见到你丽莎。
729	It could maybe not necessarily deal directly with the inflation related to energy or	它也许不一定能直接处理与能源有关的通货膨胀或
730	with AI.	与大赦国际。
731	At the same time this economy has not been torpedoed by an initial rate hike in September.	与此同时,这一经济并没有受到9月初步提速的破坏。
732	So why shouldn't they at	那他们为什么不去?
733	least in the margins just do what they can to fight their band aid.	至少在边际上,只是尽他们所能 对抗他们的乐队援助。
734	One problem with a high interest rate policy toward to try to	高利率政策的一个问题 试图
735	get inflation down is it has differential effects.	降低通货膨胀是会产生不同的效果。
736	So the inequality gets worse because it's having an effect on small	所以不平等越发严重 因为它对小
737	businesses.	企业。
738	So you get this.	所以,你得到这一点。
739	We may have growth but in order to stop the growth in demand of higher income people takes really	我们可能会有增长 但是为了阻止高收入人口的需求增长
740	It's just not a good model for what you're trying to do.	这只是不是一个很好的模型 你试图做什么。
741	It doesn't have a direct effect on lowering inflation.	它对降低通货膨胀没有直接影响.
742	So we're in the in the	所以,我们是在
743	risk right now that inflation keeps going up because of oil and diesel and it passes through the economy and the Fed will just say well	现在,由于石油和柴油,通货膨胀不断上升,而且通过经济,美联储会说得好
744	let's treat it with more and more interest rates.	让我们用越来越多的利率来对待它。
745	Historically there haven't been times when high interest rates cause low inflation.	历史上没有过高利率导致低通胀的时期.
746	At	时
747	the same time what are the big transmission mechanisms of inflation has been the wealth the wealth channel and its expectation that	与此同时,通货膨胀的巨型传导机制是财富渠道及其期望:
748	stock gains have made people feel wealthy.	股票收益使人们感到富有。
749	They go out they spend more.	他们出去花更多钱
750	You do see the stock market take a breather like yesterday	你看股票市场像昨天一样喘口气
751	when expectations of Fed rate hikes are increasing.	当美联储利率上涨的预期值增加时
752	So why isn't that a viable channel to combat inflation.	因此,为什么这不是一个可行的 遏制通货膨胀的渠道。
753	But we've had	但我们有过
754	previous rate increases in the market keeps going up because it's looking at earnings.	之前的市场利率上升 不断上升 因为它看的收入。
755	So the big companies are able to get cash.	因此,大公司能够获得现金.
756	So	这么说
757	there's this crowding out effect where smaller businesses are the ones that feel the brunt of the rate hike.	有一种挤出效应 较小的企业 感受到了利率上升的首当其冲。
758	And that hurts the	这伤害了
759	production of the economy underneath.	生产地下经济。
760	So I don't think interest rates are a good tool because they're targeted on demand and	所以我不认为利率是一个好工具 因为它们是针对需求 和
761	they're a lagging indicator.	他们是一个落后的指标。
762	They're treating what the problem was six months or one year ago.	他们正在治疗六个月或一年前的问题
763	If we look at the world it's a	如果我们看看这个世界,那就是...
764	disinflationary world.	消除通货膨胀的世界。
765	China's inflation is 0.7.	中国通货膨胀为0.7.
766	Japan's is 2 and people are producing huge amounts of stuff.	日本是2,人们正在生产大量的东西。
767	So the Fed	所以美联储
768	regularly overshoots.	经常超射
769	They have rates too high when they end.	当他们结束的时候,他们的费率太高了。
770	Then they also have them too low.	然后他们也有太低了。
771	Remember after the dot com bubble	记得点点泡后
772	in 2000 they had to lower them all the way to 1 percent because they were so far behind the curve as the asset prices came down.	在2000年,他们不得不把它们一直降低到1%,因为随着资产价格的下跌,它们远远落后于曲线。
773	So we	所以我们
774	don't want to do that again.	不要再这样了
775	It's really wasteful.	真浪费
776	But David this isn't just an oil story.	但大卫这不仅仅是个石油故事
777	When you go the latest inflation data it's	当你走最新的通货膨胀数据
778	bleeding into services.	血流成河
779	Things like health care computer components iPhones smart phones.	诸如医疗保健计算机组件iPhones智能手机之类的东西.
780	There is stickier inflation in	通货膨胀持续上升
781	services.	服务。
782	Isn't that where that is really the crux of the problem.	这不是问题的关键所在吗?
783	It's not these issues that you can look through like tariffs and	不是这些问题,你可以看 通过关税和
784	energy.	能源。
785	Some we want wages to go up and wages in the services sector to go up.	有些我们希望增加工资,服务部门的工资增长。
786	And so using inflation automatically makes you	所以用通货膨胀自动让你
787	lean against people working within the economy.	偏向经济内部工作的人。
788	So you know there is another way to do this which is called the price rule.	所以,你知道有另一种方法 做到这一点,这就是价格规则。
789	A	页:1
790	and price stability within the economy rather than the inflation rate.	以及经济内的价格稳定,而不是通货膨胀率。
791	That was the point of my Wall Street Journal article.	这就是我的《华尔街日报》文章的要点。
792	It's	这是
793	just a better indicator and it won't cause the overshoots that we do.	只是一个更好的指标, 它不会引起过度射击 我们做的。
794	So what do you think the Fed should do in December.	你觉得美联储12月应该做什么?
795	Well in	不错
796	December they their model is that inflation is running above target.	12月 他们的模型是通货膨胀超过目标
797	So we hide.	所以我们躲起来
798	It has been running for a target for nearly six	它已经运行了一个目标 近6个
799	years.	岁月
800	Yeah but not as much as it is with the trend.	是的,但不像它与趋势一样多。
801	You know they look at what's the trend in inflation and year over year is	年复一年的通货膨胀趋势
802	going up.	升起来。
803	And so their temptation is to cut because that's what their model says to do.	所以他们的诱惑是切掉, 因为他们的模型就是这么说的。
804	What I'm pointing out is that model often	我想说的是那个模特儿经常
805	overshoots and then it costs the economy and it contributes to the inequality.	过量消费,然后造成经济损失,造成不平等。
806	If what you're trying to do is have people with	如果你想要做的是让别人
807	wages get more wages that you.	工资得到更多的工资,你。
808	Why count that as something bad within the economy.	何必把这算作经济中的坏事?
809	And a better way to do that is to do it is	更好的方法就是做到这一点
810	look directly at prices and say we're going to have stability out into the future in prices.	直接看价格,说我们将在未来价格中保持稳定。
811	That's what China does.	中国就是这样做的.
812	You know China	你知道中国
813	has an explicit policy that says we're going to keep the yuan stable for long periods of time so people will use it.	有明确的政策,说我们要长期维持人民币的稳定,以便人们使用.
814	And that's	这是
815	what's been happening.	发生了什么事?
816	China is a good model for the US.	中国是美国的好榜样.
817	I guess I'm wondering.	我猜我还在想
818	You see this is a disinflationary world and	你看,这是一个 通货紧缩的世界,
819	point to China and China is the outlier.	指中国和中国是外围国家。
820	The rest of the world is experiencing inflation from sort of a re globalization	世界其他地方正在经历从某种意义上的全球化带来的通货膨胀
821	deglobalization more kind of dispersed supply chain in a much more significant way.	非全球化更分散的供应链,其方式更为显著。
822	But look at what China has achieved.	但看看中国取得了什么成就.
823	So	这么说
824	from a per capita income standpoint or a median income standpoint they've had the biggest advances in the world for decades.	从人均收入或中位收入的角度来看, 几十年来他们取得了世界上最大的进步。
825	And part of that is because they look directly at price stability.	这部分是因为他们直接看价格稳定。
826	They're not using an inflation targeting model.	他们没有使用通货膨胀目标模式。
827	So on that point	所以,在这一点上
828	they may have at least an innovation.	他们可能至少有一个创新。
829	Look at where they're innovating on and many things around their their economy.	看看他们在创新的地方 以及围绕经济的许多事情
830	So that's	这么说吧
831	what I think should be done.	我认为应该做的。
832	The Fed examining its model and say there are better ways to do this.	美联储审查其模式,并说有更好的办法做到这一点。
833	There are growth more pro	增长比较有利
834	ways that are going to be better for the median income.	对中位收入来说会更好
835	And what we know is that the inflation targeting model hasn't worked.	我们所知道的是, 通胀目标模式还没有奏效。
836	Look at what Biden got into.	看看拜登的下场
837	They were doing inflation targeting and they were they know it's a lagging indicator.	他们正在做通货膨胀目标 他们知道这是一个滞后的指标。
838	But look even at	但纵然看
839	2000年代的格林斯潘(Greenspan),2004年或5-6.
840	The rates were set wrong and that contributed some to the to the great financial crisis.	利率被设定为错误,这在一定程度上助长了严重的金融危机。
841	And you can do each cycle and say wait the Fed was way behind the curve.	你可以做每个循环 并说等待 美联储是落后的曲线。
842	Why is that because they're using inflation.	为什么是因为他们在使用通货膨胀。
843	David not	大卫不
844	best.	最好这样
845	I'm sorry.	对不起
846	We've got to go.	我们得走了。
847	Unfortunately great to see you.	很遗憾见到你
848	Really good to have you here in studio.	很高兴你在这里工作室。
849	Former World Bank president	前世界银行行长
850	coming up in the next hour.	下个小时就要到了
851	Seema Shah of principal asset management Jeanette Lowe of Baird strategist Amanda Lyman of Goldman	外观 贝尔德战略家、戈德曼的阿曼达·莱曼
852	Sachs and honor Rana of Bloomberg Intelligence with the IPO of Anthropic on the 桌上的彭博情报公司(英语:Sachs and Rana of Bloomberg Intelligence)与安特罗皮克IPO(英语:Anthropic)合作.
853	Nvidia chaos continuing and questions	恩维迪亚的混乱在继续,问题在继续
854	about neoclouds getting put to bed at least for the moment.	关于新云至少暂时上床
855	This is Bloomberg surveillance.	这是彭博的监控
856	The markets are pricing in a couple of	市场是价格在几
857	more interest rate hikes.	利率会提高
858	Inflation is too high.	通货膨胀太高。
859	They know that.	他们知道这一点。
860	They've known that for a long time.	他们早就知道了
861	Waller certainly has raised the	沃勒当然养大了
862	stakes.	赌注。
863	The 50 basis point hike would be a huge surprise.	50个基点的提升将是一个巨大的惊喜。
864	You look forward and they're looking forward.	你往前看 他们往前看
865	Inflation is going to	通货膨胀将会
866	moderate.	温和。
867	This is Bloomberg surveillance with Jonathan Farrow Lisa Abramowitz and Anne Marie Hordurn.	这是彭博公司与乔纳森·法罗·丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮·玛丽·霍杜恩的监控.
868	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
869	Welcome back to	欢迎回来
870	Bloomberg surveillance stocks eking out gains at least in the S&P 500 doing better than that when it comes to the Nasdaq.	彭博公司监控股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股股
871	As traders glean	作为交易商的收集
872	comfort from core weaves better than expected earnings the results propping up other neoclouds and adding to more confidence in the	从核心编织得到的安慰比预期的要好 结果是其他新云,并增加了对新云的信心
873	A.I. (英语).
874	trade adding to optimism as Anthropic kicks off its roadshow reportedly eyeing an increase in its target valuation possibly to one	据报道,Anthropic在路面上看到其目标价值可能增加到1。
875	and a half trillion dollars from one point four.	和5万亿美元 从1点4。
876	Yeah potentially we're going to see them get closer to that original two trillion dollars	是啊,我们可能会看到他们 接近原来的两兆美元
877	when it comes to Anthropic really giving also some momentum.	当它涉及到Anthropic 真正给一些动力。
878	As you mentioned Lisa what's going on in core we this was a critical	当你提到丽莎 核心是什么 我们是一个关键
879	report especially what we heard from the debt plans from the CEO most recently that really took a battering on the stock.	特别是我们从总裁最近的债务计划中听到的 真正打击股票的消息
880	Then coming	然后来了
881	out and really exceeding these expectations in the previous range when it comes to revenue.	与收入相比, 超过这些预期。
882	Just all of this helping the A.I.	只是所有这一切帮助A. I.
883	trade at a	贸易
884	time when really the center of A.I.	当真正的A. I.
885	has to be Jensen Wong Nvidia and more and more people coming out and saying I think he might have	一定是Jensen Wong Nvidia 和越来越多的人出来 说我想他可能有
886	to go.	离开。
887	Certainly in the political sphere coming out and saying certainly there need to be more hearings let alone questions about the	当然,在政治领域出现,并说,肯定需要有更多的听证会,更不用说对
888	leadership.	领导才能。
889	Taking a look at Nvidia shares higher by about 5 percent in pre-market trading this morning following a route that has left	今天早上Nvidia的股权在市场前交易中增加5%,
890	the shares at one point yesterday with a company below a four trillion valuation.	在昨天的某一点 与一个低于4万亿估值的公司。
891	Remember this company had almost a five point eight	记得这家公司差不多有五点八分
892	trillion dollar valuation at the beginning of October.	10月初价值万亿美元。
893	We have lost almost two trillion dollars worth of.	我们损失了价值近两万亿美元。
894	Why did you stop in Alaska to	你为什么在阿拉斯加停下来
895	pick up Jensen Wong to go to China.	接黄延生去中国.
896	If this was what the intelligence was telling you about this individual a lot of questions on where	如果这是情报告诉你的 关于这个人的很多问题
897	the Commerce Secretary is in terms of was Jensen Wong given preferential treatment because of his relationship with this White House when	商务秘书说Jensen Wong因为和白宫的关系 受到优待
898	it comes to export controls in regards to Megaspeed which is the company that this woman was in charge of a ton of questions that this	这涉及到对兆速的出口管制 也就是这个女人负责的一家公司
899	board this White House and this Congress are after and some need to answer for.	白宫和国会必须负责
900	If that wasn't enough there also now is suddenly the	如果还不够的话,现在也突然
901	aspect of a 50 basis point rate hike initially raised by Fed Governor Chris Waller yesterday in a speech in London saying that if	美联储州长克里斯·沃勒昨天在伦敦的讲话中 最初提出的50个基点利率提高的问题
902	course CPI came in hotter than expected if you did get the CPI inflation data that was greater than 0.3 percent or even higher that he	如果你得到的消费物价指数通胀率超过0.3%甚至更高,
903	would say that a 50 basis point hike would be on the table.	将会说,50个基点的提升将会摆在桌面上。
904	Guess what we got just that we got hotter than expected CPI core CPI came in	猜猜我们得到了什么 我们得到的热 比预期的CPI核心CPI进来
905	at 0.3 percent the run rate the fastest for three months going back to 2024.	运行率为0.3% 运行速度最快 三个月可追溯到2024年
906	And now you have Lori Logan of the Dallas Fed coming out	现在达拉斯联邦的洛莉洛根出来了
907	and also say look this data does present a problem and she would be open to considering a larger than expected hike to.	并且说,看这个数据确实是一个问题,她愿意考虑一个比预期的要大得多的涨幅。
908	Well the data	数据
909	yesterday is just a continuation.	昨天只是继续。
910	The third straight month of course CPI coming in at three tenths of a percent.	当然,第三个月的消费物价指数 以十分之三的比例出现。
911	Austin Goolsbee last	奥斯汀・古尔斯比最后
912	night also coming out.	晚上也出来
913	We've heard it before.	我们以前听过
914	It's another distressing report borderline disturbing and he didn't want to use the word	这是另一个令人不安的报告 边界线干扰 他不想用这个词
915	transitory but he did.	临时的,但他做到了。
916	He says we could look through what's going on maybe in energy and tariffs.	他说我们可以看看 能源和关税方面的情况
917	But what's really starting to unnerve	但真正开始紧张的是什么
918	him is the fact that you are seeing in this report the inflation going into services things like health care.	他的确是你在本报告中看到的 诸如医疗等服务业的通货膨胀
919	This is a real problem for	这是真正的问题
920	the Federal Reserve in December is now not really up for debate only if they go 25 or 50.	12月的美联储 只有在25或50岁的时候 才会真正辩论
921	The bond market yesterday was a source of a	昨天的债券市场是
922	lot of pain with the front end of the yield curve seeing its biggest one day sell off going back to April of 2025.	收益曲线前端的很多痛苦 看到它最大的一天销量 回到2025年4月
923	Today the bond	今天的纽带
924	market is closed in honor of Veterans Day.	为了纪念退伍军人日,市场关闭。
925	The stock market is open futures higher significantly so across the board particularly when it	股市的公开期货要高得多 所以从全局来看
926	comes to tech.	来到技术。
927	Almost a 2 percent rally in your session highs now with the Nasdaq gaining after yesterday's small declines as the	纳斯达克在昨天小幅衰落之后,
928	futures up nine tenths of a percent.	期货涨了十分之九
929	If you take a look at kind of a proxy for rate bets you could see the euro falling versus the	如果你看一下利率赌注的代名词 你可以看到欧元对欧元的下跌
930	dollar dollar strength right now as people assess the potential for an outsized rate hike a 25 basis point hike is more than	当人们评估25个基点上扬的超大利率 的可能性时,美元现在的坚挺值就超过了
931	priced in for December.	12月的价格
932	And if you take a look at oil really interesting to see some of the optimism over the past couple of	如果你看看石油,真的很有趣 看到一些乐观 在过去的夫妇
933	sessions oil prices falling below 90 dollars a barrel and WTI getting retraced just a touch as people start to think about	油价跌到90美元/桶 和WTI被重新追踪 只是一触即发
934	insurance costs and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.	中东的保险费和持续的紧张局势。
935	Coming up this hour Seema Shah of principal asset management with AI	此时此刻,主要资产管理的Seema Shah与AI
936	enthusiasm driving the market rally.	热情驱动着市场集会。
937	Baird Stratigas的Jeanette Lowe作为民主党人呼吁对Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong和
938	Amanda Linum of Goldman Sachs and why the big tech bond binge is just getting started.	高盛的Amanda Linum 以及为什么大科技债券 刚刚开始。
939	We begin this hour with stocks	我们从这个时间开始 股票
940	rebounding as traders rush back into tech.	随着贸易商们迅速回到技术领域,反弹不断。
941	Seema Shah of principal asset management rights.	外观 主要资产管理权之差。
942	The election has increased the	选举增加了
943	probability of greater regulatory friction around AI infrastructure.	围绕AI基础设施出现更大的监管摩擦的可能性.
944	It has not demonstrated that the underlying AI investment	它没有证明基本的AI投资
945	cycle is breaking.	循环正在打破。
946	Seema joins us now for more.	Seema现在要加入我们了
947	Good morning Seema.	早上好,西玛。
948	Nice to see you.	很高兴见到你。
949	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
950	So great to be with you.	很高兴与你在一起。
951	Just	刚刚
952	want to start there.	想要从那里开始。
953	How much are you kind of piling into the AI trade seeing a bargain a discount like Julian Emanuel	你在人工智能交易中花多少钱? 看着像Julian Emanuel这样的交易折扣
954	versus saying there are some true cracks in this theme that need to be reassessed.	而不是说这个主题有一些真正的漏洞需要重新评估.
955	Yeah.	对
956	Look I don't think that this is as we	你看,我不认为 这是因为我们
957	said I don't think this is the end of the AI trade.	说我不认为这是AI交易的结束。
958	But at the same time I think it's fair that we said that there is some real	但与此同时 我觉得我们说真的有
959	assessment reassessment going on.	评估重新评估正在进行。
960	Last week it did create a crater.	上周它确实创造了一个陨石坑。
961	And I think there's always going to be a big market	我觉得总会有一个大市场
962	reaction and then time as things are digested.	反应,然后时间随着事物的消化。
963	But the question marks around data centers and the speed of how much things can be	但问题就在于 数据中心和速度
964	developed.	已开发。
965	That is a genuine question.	这是一个真正的问题。
966	I think there is going to be a slowdown but it just means it doesn't imply that this is	我想会减速的 但是这并不意味着
967	the end of that trade.	交易的结束。
968	And as we're looking out there's going to be implications for AI capex.	当我们在看时 AI capex将会有影响
969	That's going to be smarter	那会更聪明的
970	investments to be had within data centers for example which are the ones which are going to be less powered.	例如,在数据中心内投资,而数据中心的动力将减少。
971	Next doesn't	下一个不会
972	requires less power generation.	需要较少的发电。
973	And so I think there's going to be some smart questions going on.	所以,我想会有一些聪明的问题。
974	Investors can't just pile into	投资者不能只是堆积起来
975	things.	东西。
976	It's a lot of dispersion which has been going on in the industry.	业内流传着大量的散居.
977	And it's going to be persisting and probably	并会持续,可能
978	exacerbated over the next couple of months and quarters.	在接下来的几个月和几个月里,情况更加恶化。
979	In the immediate aftermath of the election.	紧接着选举。
980	Seema有一种感觉
981	that the hyperscalers would benefit more than anybody else because they had the balance sheets to sustain the data center	超标器比任何人都有利 因为他们有维持数据中心的资产负债表
982	build out any kind of perks they needed to offer communities.	建立他们所需要的任何好处 给社区。
983	And that maybe the chip sector would be a little underwater	也许芯片区会有点水下
984	just because of overall demand from non hyperscaler players.	只是因为非超规模玩家的总体需求。
985	Do you think that still stands or do you think that there are	你认为这还站着 还是你认为有
986	players within the whole tech universe that potentially could gain.	整个科技界的玩家 都有可能受益
987	I mean I do think the narrative around hyperscalers	我的意思是,我确实认为 关于超规模的叙述
988	being a little bit stronger in a stronger position still stands.	在较强的地位上更强一点的状态仍然存在.
989	But that's not to say that there are other players within the	但这并不是说 还有其他玩家
990	industry that can be benefiting.	能够受益的工业。
991	I think as an investor whereas two years ago even a year ago you could look at the just the	我想作为投资人, 而两年前,甚至一年前, 你可以看 公正的
992	general tech trade and say look I just want to pile into whatever exposure I can get.	普通的科技交易,说看,我只是想 堆积到任何我能得到的暴露。
993	Now it's not just even saying well	现在不只是说得好
994	look I want to have exposure to chips when I have exposure to the software sector.	我想接触芯片 当我接触到软件部门。
995	It's really about understanding what are	这真的是关于了解什么是
996	the specifics of that company.	公司的具体情况。
997	What is the balance sheet strength.	什么是资产负债表的力量。
998	Where does it sit within the cycle of course.	它在这个周期里坐在哪里?
999	But it's	不过
1000	really getting down into the underlying fundamentals which is becoming increasingly important for anyone that wants to get into the	真正进入基础 越来越重要 对于任何想要进入
1001	A.I. (英语).
1002	trade.	贸易。
1003	Now we are still positive.	现在我们仍然是积极的。
1004	We do think this is going to be persisting.	我们认为这将持续下去。
1005	But it is a case of just being a little bit smarter	但它只是有点聪明
1006	about the investments that you're taking and also acknowledging that there's something beyond tech out there.	你所做的投资, 也承认 有一些东西超出了技术。
1007	So this is still a risk	所以这还是个风险
1008	on market but it's looking beyond just some of the obvious plays that have been have been in process.	市场上市,但它的眼光 超越了 仅仅一些明显的剧情 一直在进行。
1009	See what worries you the most	看你最担心什么
1010	说到A. I.
1011	in the tech trade is the fact that Jensen Wong might be forced to step down in video.	技术交易中 黄詹森可能被迫退出视频
1012	The fact that we have	事实,我们有
1013	this blue wave hitting the United States or actually that the Fed actually is thinking about weighing a 50 basis point hike in	美联储实际上在考虑 重压50个基点
1014	December.	十二月..
1015	To me it's a fact that the hits just keep coming.	对我来说,这是一个事实, 点击只是不断来。
1016	It's every week there's something else.	每周都有别的东西
1017	There's so many question marks	问号太多了
1018	整个A. I.
1019	investment trade.	投资贸易。
1020	We don't know.	我们不知道。
1021	Sometimes I wonder what is going to be the next thing that we'll be talking about	有时我想知道接下来要谈的是什么
1022	next week that we haven't been able to anticipate as a real as a real source of of issues.	下周,我们一直无法预期 真正的问题来源。
1023	So I think to me that just implies that	所以我觉得那只是意味着
1024	this is something which is really really under pressure.	这是真正受到压力的东西。
1025	And so as an investor we have to be just that much smarter about where we're	作为投资人,我们必须 更聪明的我们在哪里
1026	going in terms of the 50 basis point cut.	以50个基点的切数计算
1027	I'm less concerned about the impact of the A.I.	我不太关心人工智能的影响
1028	trade.	贸易。
1029	But I am becoming increasingly	但我越来越
1030	concerned.	关心。
1031	I'm sorry.	对不起
1032	Fifty five basis point hike.	五十五根基点提升。
1033	The implication for the broader economy if that could be if that's the case.	如果情况确实如此,对经济的影响就更大了。
1034	It's interesting that in the last couple of weeks partly because of the concerns around data center and the implications for A.I.	有趣的是,在过去的几个星期里, 部分是由于对数据中心的担忧 以及对A. I.
1035	capex question marks are an economic slowdown.	capex问号是经济放缓。
1036	Even recession has started to prop up in conversations.	甚至衰退也开始在对话中支持。
1037	And so there are real	所以有真实的
1038	concern building up across the economy A.I.	关心整个经济的发展
1039	about the general underlying economic strength.	关于总体的经济实力。
1040	And so the 50 basis point hike if	所以50个基点上升,如果
1041	that comes through we don't expect it would.	我们没想到会这样
1042	But if it did I think that we would see a much deeper slowed down than certainly	但是,如果真的,我认为我们会看到 更深的减速 比确定
1043	what we're currently expecting.	我们目前所期待的。
1044	You're pointing to the fact that it's every sector that can potentially get some of these hits	你指的事实是,每个区 都有可能得到一些这些点击
1045	whether it's political whether it's policy whether it's corporate governance.	无论是政治政策还是公司治理。
1046	If you wanted to hide a little bit somewhere where	如果你想躲到某个地方
1047	do you do that.	你这样做。
1048	I think across with hiding it's going to be of course fixed income is going to be key.	我想通过隐藏,它当然是固定收入是关键。
1049	We've seen actually you	我们见过你
1050	know aside from the sell off that we saw at the front end yesterday that generally every time that there's been major concerns	除了我们昨天在前端看到的卖掉 通常每次有重大关切的时候
1051	within the market at least the bond market has performed well.	债券市场至少表现良好。
1052	So I think it's important to have that exposure thinking about	所以我认为重要的是 让曝光思考
1053	the high quality parts of the investment of the credit universe as well.	高品质的投资部分 信用世界。
1054	But this is still a story of diversification.	但这仍然是多样化的故事。
1055	I think that	我觉得
1056	as a stretch as you say diversification all the time and you do end up seeing eyes rolled.	就像你说的多样化一样 你最终会看到眼睛滚滚
1057	Of course that's always the answer to	当然,这总是答案
1058	everything.	一切众生.
1059	But in the last couple of quarters you have seen that that has actually performed well.	但在过去的几个季度里,你已经看到, 这实际上表现得很好。
1060	This really proved its	这真的证明了它
1061	worth.	值钱
1062	So I was looking at fixed income next in course real assets private markets of course given that we're expecting a	所以我接下来是固定收入 当然是真实资产 私人市场,因为我们期待
1063	longer environment.	环境变长。
1064	So that's the safety the safety is diversification at this point.	这就是安全性,安全性就是多样化。
1065	See Michelle principal asset management.	见米歇尔主要资产管理。
1066	Thank	谢谢
1067	you so much for being with us this morning.	今天早上你这么多 和我们在一起。
1068	The hits keep on coming.	命中率继续上升
1069	Definitely the way that a lot of people on Wall Street feel	绝对是华尔街很多人的感觉
1070	right now.	现在
1071	That said concern about the U.S. economy.	这说明对美国经济的关注。
1072	There seems to be a sort of duality right now where on one hand people say	现在似乎有某种双重性 人们说
1073	they're worried that a 50 basis point rate hike could curtail U.S. economic growth and even raise the prospect of recession.	他们担心50个基点的升速会抑制美国的经济增长,甚至提高衰退的前景.
1074	On the	打开
1075	other hand the Citigroup U.S. Economic Surprise Index is at the highest level in three years.	另一方面,花旗集团美国经济惊喜指数是三年来最高的。
1076	You're looking at things like	你看的东西喜欢
1077	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}然后说美国消费者过去一直 花更多钱
1078	couple of weeks.	几个星期。
1079	There just seems like a lack of clarity on just how to assess the U.S. economy outside of the trade.	似乎还不清楚如何评估美国贸易以外的经济。
1080	It's very	这是非常
1081	challenging especially when A.I.	特别是当A. I.
1082	is really the driver of growth and GDP.	真正的驱动增长和GDP。
1083	And now everyone is talking about potentially it's on a	现在每个人都在谈论它的潜力
1084	seamless point.	无缝点。
1085	It does feel like this market every single day is having to digest things that they weren't expecting.	它确实觉得这个市场 每一天都不得不消化一些 他们没想到的事情。
1086	Just in the	就在这
1087	past 48 hours was anyone really expecting Governor Waller to put 50 basis points on the table for December.	过去48小时 任何人都真正期待州长沃勒 将50个基点放在12月的桌子上
1088	And that was right	没错
1089	ahead of hot inflation data.	领先于热通胀数据。
1090	So every single day there's just new catalysts when I think a lot of people thought that	所以每天都有新的催化剂 当很多人认为
1091	potentially the few weeks after the midterm elections it'd be this clearing event and everyone could reassess.	在中期选举之后的几周里... 将会是这次清理活动 每个人都可以重新评估
1092	Well there's just	嗯,这是
1093	more that's driving this news.	更能推动这个新闻
1094	I think we do need to get a wheel of fortune.	我想我们确实需要 得到一个轮子的财富。
1095	Just spin it every morning and say 50 basis points	只要每天早上旋转,说50个基点
1096	right now.	现在
1097	Let's get you an update on stories elsewhere this morning.	今早我们去别处找些故事
1098	Here is your Bloomberg Brief with Isabel Lee.	这是你和伊莎贝尔·李的彭博简介
1099	Isabel.	伊莎贝尔
1100	Hi Lisa	嗨,丽莎
1101	Ukraine and Russia entering a second day of U.S. led peace talks in Abu Dhabi.	乌克兰和俄罗斯进入美国领导阿布扎比和谈的第二天.
1102	Ukraine President Vladimir Zelensky calling the	弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基总统
1103	first round quote constructive and quite substantive.	第一轮谈判引述了建设性和相当实质性的内容。
1104	Negotiators today focusing on Black Sea and energy infrastructure cease	今天,侧重于黑海和能源基础设施的谈判者停止
1105	fires as well as the potential exchange of up to 1500 prisoners each.	以及每人可能交换1 500名囚犯。
1106	And Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer is facing	参议院民主领袖查克·舒默面对
1107	discontent within his own party.	党内不满.
1108	Senators Bernie Sanders and Elisa Slotkin argue that Schumer hasn't met with the moment with	参议员伯尼·桑德斯和艾莉莎·斯洛特金 认为舒默还没有和他见面
1109	Sanders calling for a place in the Democratic leader and Slotkin say she's a no on reelecting Schumer unless he provides a quote	桑德斯呼吁在民主党领袖和斯洛特金中占有一席之地 说她不会重新选举舒默 除非他引用
1110	concrete plan of action.	具体的行动计划。
1111	And shares of CoreWeave trading higher in pre-market the cloud computing provider reporting third	而CoreWeave在上市前交易的股份更高 云计算提供者报告第三
1112	quarter sales the top Wall Street estimates.	四分之一的销售额是华尔街最高的估计数.
1113	The company also getting an upbeat outlook despite challenges facing the data center	尽管数据中心面临挑战,但公司也获得了乐观的前景。
1114	industry.	工业。
1115	That's your Bloomberg Brief Lisa.	这是你的彭博简介丽莎。
1116	Thank you so much Isabel.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔
1117	Up next Nvidia facing congressional backlash.	下一个Nvidia面对国会的反弹
1118	I just know	и笵
1119	Jensen very well.	詹森很不错
1120	I just think he's a very honorable man.	我只是觉得他是一个非常光荣的人。
1121	The press reports that Trump was briefed more than a year ago and	媒体报导说,一年多前特朗普接受了通报,
1122	Trump didn't do anything anything about it.	特朗普对此没有做任何事情.
1123	Can you believe that.	你能相信吗?
1124	Jeanette Lowe of Barrett Stratigas joins us next.	巴雷特·斯特拉蒂加斯的珍妮特·洛下场
1125	This is	这是
1126	Bloomberg surveillance.	彭博监制.
1127	There's a lot going on.	事迹甚多.
1128	It's just you can't keep track of all of the stories but one name just continues to	只是你无法追踪所有的故事 但有一个名字继续
1129	maintain the spotlight.	保持聚光灯。
1130	That is Nvidia shares this morning taking a bit of a rebound 3.7 percent.	这是Nvidia今天早上的股份 有点反弹3.7%。
1131	And what you're seeing is a	你所看到的是一个
1132	growing number of companies that are downgrading their expectations and their holdings of these shares.	越来越多的公司降低对这些股票的期望和持有量。
1133	Baird downgrading	降级
1134	Nvidia to neutral from outperformed this morning with a price target of two hundred dollars.	Nvidia到中性 从今天早晨的表现 超过200美元的价格目标。
1135	That is down AMH from five	这是从五点开始的
1136	hundred dollars as they look to the potential congressional inquiries supply issues as well as just simply a lack of	百美元,他们期待 潜在的国会调查 供给问题 以及仅仅是缺乏
1137	visibility.	可见度。
1138	And the subject line of this research note is Icarus rise and fall.	而本研究笔记的主题线是伊卡洛斯升降.
1139	Company will be fine.	公司不会有事的
1140	They do note that	他们确实注意到
1141	uncertainties related to CEO tenure tenure into 2027 also support our trading range views on the stock near term neutral	与首席执行官任期至2027年有关的不确定性也支持我们对股票交易范围的看法
1142	rated.	评分
1143	This is a concern for a lot of companies.	这是很多公司关心的问题。
1144	They're still bullish.	他们还蛮牛的
1145	We made out as bullish because now they have this	因为现在他们有了这个
1146	fresh rich risk in terms of the key man Jensen Wong and potentially what happens to him is giving a lot of noise directed at	关键人物Jensen Wong的新风险 以及他可能遭遇的 可能带来很多针对他的噪音
1147	Jensen and this company from Washington D.C. And the board is going to have to look potentially into did this relationship	Jensen和华盛顿的这家公司 董事会将不得不 探究这种关系
1148	impact some of his decision making and potentially why he was trying to get involved in some of the Commerce Department	影响他的一些决策 以及他为什么 试图介入一些商业部
1149	investigations.	调查。
1150	Morgan Stanley also removing Nvidia as a top pick although still maintaining their overweight rating on the	摩尔根 斯坦利还取消了Nvidia作为顶级选手 尽管他们仍然保持超重的评分
1151	company.	连队。
1152	Wachtel the law firm in New York one of these tapped to do the internal investigation of Nvidia.	纽约律师事务所的Wachtel 窃听了其中之一 来对Nvidia进行内部调查
1153	So we shall see if	所以,我们看看
1154	any of that comes to light.	任何事情都会被曝光
1155	It should potentially shed some some clarity on what exactly happened under surveillance this morning	应该能澄清今早在监视下 究竟发生了什么
1156	video facing congressional backlash.	影片面对国会反弹。
1157	I just know Jensen very well.	我对詹森很了解
1158	I just think he's a very honorable man.	我只是觉得他是一个非常光荣的人。
1159	The press reports that	媒体报道说,
1160	Trump was briefed more than a year ago.	一年多前向特朗普作了通报.
1161	I feel very confident that he'll be in good shape.	我非常有信心他会好起来的
1162	One of our most important companies	我们最重要的公司之一
1163	that's involved in national security and the CEO might be having an affair with a Chinese spy and from Washington D.C.	而CEO可能与一名中国间谍 和华盛顿有染
1164	The details	细节
1165	are emerging by the minute.	马上就要来了
1166	Tyler what's the latest.	泰勒,最近怎么样?
1167	Well Lisa at this point pressure is really mounting here in Washington.	丽莎此时的压力正在华盛顿上升
1168	As today marks the deadline for the Nvidia CEO to reply to House Republicans request for a private briefing.	由于今天是恩维迪亚首席执行官答复众议院共和党人要求私下简报的最后期限.
1169	These are the	这些是
1170	chairs of the House Financial the House Foreign Affairs Intelligence and China Select Committees who are demanding answers	众议院财政委员会主席 众议院外交事务情报和中国特别委员会
1171	about the affair but also about what potential action the company is taking in the wake of it to institute national security	关于这件事情, 以及公司正在采取什么潜在行动 之后建立国家安全
1172	controls.	控制系统。
1173	We heard from one of those chairs last night in an interview with an interview with an interview with an interview	我们昨晚在接受采访时听到其中一位椅子的声音
1174	With ABC News, Brian Mast says that so far, Jensen Wong hasn't answered any of their requests.	与ABC新闻,布莱恩·马斯特(Brian Mast)表示,到目前为止,黄杰森还没有回答他们的任何要求.
1175	At this point, it's unclear exactly how a congressional subpoena would really play out	此时此刻,还不清楚国会传票 到底会怎样运作
1176	because it would very likely expire when Republicans lose their committees in the new Congress.	因为当共和党在新国会中失去委员会时,它很可能会过期。
1177	But Democrats, of course, are pledging investigations of their own.	但民主党人,当然, 保证自己的调查。
1178	And that's just the investigation side of things.	而这只是调查方面的事情。
1179	There are now bipartisan calls on Capitol Hill to tighten restrictions on chip exports	现在有两党呼吁国会山加紧限制芯片出口
1180	in the wake of this affair.	在这件事之后。
1181	Top Republicans and Democrats this week said that they hope to include three proposed measures	上层共和党人和民主党人本周表示,他们希望包括三项拟议措施
1182	related to curves in the stalled defense policy bill that lawmakers are expected to soon take up.	与停滞不前的国防政策法案的曲线有关,预期立法者将很快着手处理。
1183	The measures under consideration would include codifying Congress's ability to review and	审议中的措施将包括编纂国会审查和审查的能力。
1184	block export licenses to adversarial nations, tightening controls on allied countries to	封锁对敌对国家的出口许可证,加强对盟国的管制,使其达到
1185	prevent the sale of chip-making equipment, and lastly, Lisa, a potential location verification	防止销售芯片制造设备,最后,Lisa, 一种潜在的地点核查
1186	mechanism that would be able to allow the U.S. to track chip shipments after they are exported.	能够使美国在芯片出口后追踪其货运的机制。
1187	Tyler Kendall, thank you so much for that.	泰勒肯德尔,非常感谢你
1188	Berd战略的Jeanette Lowe写作,
1189	What kind of chip export strategy the U.S. should maintain?	美国应该维持什么样的芯片出口策略?
1190	Yeah, absolutely.	当然
1191	So thank you for having me.	谢谢你邀请我
1192	So I think there is definitely becoming much more of a concerted effort to take a bipartisan look at this.	所以,我认为,在从两党观点来看待这个问题方面,肯定有更多的协调努力。
1193	Now, the legislation, the pieces that Tyler had just mentioned do have bipartisan support.	现在,立法,泰勒刚刚提到的作品确实有两党的支持.
1194	They hadn't necessarily been included in the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act,	他们并不一定被列入众议院版本的国防授权法案中,
1195	but they had been included in the Senate version.	但他们已经被列入参议院版本。
1196	But some of these companies had pushed that they were going too far.	但这些公司中有些推着他们走得太远。
1197	And there had been some pushback from members of Congress to actually enact them.	也有一些议员 退缩 来制定它们。
1198	This new situation with Nvidia is going to propel those provisions to likely be included as part	Nvidia的这种新情况将促使这些规定有可能成为《公约》的一部分。
1199	of the bill when it gets done by the end of the year.	年终完成的法案。
1200	You could even see some additional ones.	你甚至可以看到一些额外的。
1201	There's also been concerns about companies being able to do remote access through cloud infrastructure	人们也担心公司能够通过云基础设施进行远程访问
1202	related to chips and gaining access to Nvidia chips or more advanced chips that way as well.	与芯片有关 并获得 Nvidia 芯片或更高级的芯片 的方式。
1203	So you're definitely going to see much more of a concerted bipartisan effort to get something done to really kind of	所以,你肯定会看到更多的 协调一致的两党努力 得到一些事情做到真正的类型
1204	back down on whether or not there were some leaks of chips.	说说有没有芯片泄漏
1205	There's been some sort of changes in how export controls had been pressured in Washington if that were to be true.	如果真的这样的话,华盛顿的出口管制受到压力的情况发生了某种变化。
1206	And that's definitely going to be much more of a bipartisan focus going forward.	这绝对是两党共同关注的未来。
1207	Jeanette, we also have some Republicans, including North Dakota Senator Kevin Kramer, saying Jensen Wong should be stepping down.	珍妮特,我们也有一些共和党人,包括北达科他州参议员凯文·克雷默(Kevin Kramer),说黄詹森应该下台.
1208	If they decide that they are not going to agree to come to this hearing and bring Jensen to Washington, D.C., what happens next?	如果他们决定不同意参加这次听证会,把Jensen带到华盛顿特区,接下来会发生什么?
1209	Yeah, so obviously they can definitely do some adjacent investigations related to what people know and try to dig into it deeper and sometimes	很明显,他们可以 做一些相邻的调查 与人们知道 并试图挖掘 更深入,有时
1210	obviously just even having the larger political outlook, the PR that would be on top of that would be susceptible to the company.	很明显,即使有更大的政治前景, 公关在它的顶部 将会受到公司的影响。
1211	Now, this was supposed to be a private briefing that they had asked him to attend.	这是他们要求他参加的私人简报
1212	He may ultimately do so at some point, particularly as the pressure mounts.	他最终可能会在某个时候这样做,特别是在压力增大的时候。
1213	Do you think the president is going to have to make changes there?	你觉得总统会做出改变吗?
1214	Yeah, I mean, I think obviously Congress is going to do one of its you know, its proposals.	是啊,我的意思是,我认为显然 国会会做它的一个 你知道,它的建议。
1215	A lot of this does have to come out of the executive office as well.	其中许多也必须从执行办公室出来。
1216	So we'll see if they start making changes.	我们看看他们是否开始改变。
1217	I mean, there was talks about, you know, that their secretary Lutnick had been informed about this investigation.	我的意思是,有人说,你知道, 他们的秘书Lutnick 已经被告知了这个调查。
1218	So there's definitely obviously been concerns about where export controls have been.	因此,人们显然担心出口管制在哪里。
1219	We already know there's been several stories about Nvidia chips being lost or stolen.	我们已经知道有好几个关于Nvidia芯片丢失或被盗的故事.
1220	All of these things are going to put much more heightened scrutiny on commerce to actually tighten those controls and maybe do something	所有这些事情都将对商业进行更严格的审查 以切实加强这些控制 并做一些事情
1221	internally, particularly if Congress is also looking to be more aggressive.	特别是如果国会也希望更加积极
1222	Is it your understanding that this Commerce Department gave Nvidia preferential treatment?	你是否知道 这个商业部给予恩维迪亚优惠待遇?
1223	You know, it's it's hard to say, right?	你知道,这是很难说,对不对?
1224	Obviously, we do know that Jensen Wong had been pushing for lighter export controls for the ability to continue to push to be able to sell his chips to China.	显然,我们知道,Jensen Wong一直在推动较轻的出口管制,以便继续推动将他的芯片卖给中国。
1225	I think there's definitely going to be a lot more digging and looking under the surface as to what kind of these relationships were,	我认为肯定还有更多的挖掘 并看在地表下 什么样的关系,
1226	what were the asks and potentially why.	问的是什么 可能是什么原因
1227	So we've still probably have a lot more to go to see what's kind of underneath here.	所以,我们可能还有很多工作要做 来看看下面是什么。
1228	But I think this will definitely be a big focus going forward for the months ahead.	但我认为这无疑将是今后几个月的一大重点。
1229	Aside from just the chip export restrictions on a broader level, how much do you foresee certain Republicans and Democrats working together,	除了更广义的芯片出口限制之外 你预计某些共和党和民主党会合作多少
1230	given some questions around President Trump's lead,	考虑到一些关于特朗普总统领导的问题,
1231	whether sort of the Trump era for Republicans is on the wane, how much that really opens the door to bipartisanship?	对于共和党来说,特朗普时代是否正在消退,这真正为两党制打开了多少大门?
1232	Yeah, I mean, I think one of the things is that there's various issues in Washington that definitely have bipartisan flavor to them.	是的,我的意思是,我认为一件事是, 在华盛顿有各种各样的问题 肯定有两党的风味。
1233	And obviously, national security is one of them.	显然,国家安全是其中之一。
1234	There are definitely China hawks in both parties.	双方肯定都有中国老鹰.
1235	And this is going to be something that's going to give them a lot more prescience.	这将会给他们更多的前科学。
1236	You know, we had a number of these individuals who were sitting for the past two years,	你知道,我们有一些 这些人在过去两年里坐,
1237	rather uncomfortable with some of the moves that the administration had been making, feeling that they were being too deferential to China.	对政府的一些举动感到很不自在,
1238	Now, obviously, the U.S.-China relationship is a little bit more rocky in the past few months than we have seen,	很明显,过去几个月里,美中关系比我们所看到的要不稳定一些,
1239	because obviously, we only did a two month extension of that U.S.-China trade deal.	因为显然,我们只延长了两个月 美中贸易协议。
1240	But I think they're going to definitely have those members being a lot more vocal and pushing a lot more on the administration	但我认为他们肯定会让这些成员 更有发言权 更能推动政府
1241	to make things a lot tighter for China and kind of restricting.	让事情变得对中国更加紧凑 和某种限制。
1242	And that is going to be a huge problem for this administration, because already it feels like the rare earths issue has been at the center of this relationship.	这对于本届政府来说将是一个巨大的问题, 因为它已经觉得稀土问题一直是这种关系的中心。
1243	And the United States is not getting everything they want, which is why they only agreed to a two month extension.	而美国并没有获得他们想要的一切,这就是为什么他们只同意延长两个月。
1244	So if you start to see a more aggressive export control policy out of this White House, potentially, is China going to say, well, then we're going to ratchet back rare earths?	所以如果你开始看到一个更加积极的出口管制政策 从这个白宫, 潜在的,中国会说, 那么,我们要去反射稀土?
1245	Yeah, this is coming at a time where already some Treasury officials are coming out and saying that China isn't necessarily complying with the Busan agreement agreed to.	是的,这是在一个 已经有一些财政部官员出来 说中国 不一定遵守釜山协议。
1246	Months ago, you're heading to China next week.	几个月前,你下周要去中国
1247	Is Jensen Wang going to be there?	王詹森会去吗?
1248	What do you think the tenor of it's going to be given all of the hubbub leading up to it?	你觉得它的主调会得到什么?
1249	Well, given his earnings are on Tuesday and then he's asked by Congress to appear next week as well when the president would be in China.	鉴于他的收入是周二 然后国会要求他下周 以及总统到中国的时候
1250	I highly doubt given all of this, but I think he will be key elephant in the room.	我对这一切很怀疑 但我想他会是房间里的关键大象
1251	Yeah, especially given the fact that this has not been canceled at the same time.	是啊,特别是考虑到 这件事没有同时被取消。
1252	Does it even get brought up in the nature of these discussions and negotiating a further extension of the trade truce coming up in the next half hour?	难道它甚至被提到这些讨论的性质,并谈判在接下来的半小时内进一步扩大贸易停战?
1253	Amanda Linum of Goldman Sachs and why the big tech bond binge is just getting started.	高盛的Amanda Linum 以及为什么大科技债券 刚刚开始。
1254	Plus, Isabelle Lee taking a look at Nvidia, looking to stage a rebound after a two day slide.	另外,伊莎贝尔·李(Isabelle Lee)看一看恩维迪亚(Nvidia),想在两天的幻灯片后进行反弹.
1255	Those shares significantly below where they were now, almost below four trillion dollars in valuation bouncing just a bit.	这些股份大大低于现在的水平, 几乎低于4万亿美元 价值只是一点点。
1256	There is a rebound this morning, I guess, maybe because the bond market is close.	今早出现了反弹,我猜, 也许因为债券市场很近。
1257	People can focus on the positives, including core we've earnings, including the IPO of Anthropic that has reportedly gotten upgraded or is going to try to be upgraded to one and a half trillion dollars of total market capitalization.	人们可以关注积极因素, 包括我们的核心收益, 包括Anthropic的IPO, 据报道,它已经升级了, 或者正在尝试升级到 1.5万亿美元的总市场资本。
1258	Right now, we're seeing one point nine percent gain in Nasdaq futures as it features up nine tenths of a percent.	现在,我们看到纳斯达克期货有百分之九的增益 因为它占百分之九
1259	As we said, the bond market is closed in honor of Veterans Day.	正如我们所说,债券市场为纪念退伍军人日而关闭。
1260	But a good proxy of just how people are baking in the rate hiking expectations is the euro dollar trade.	但欧元贸易是人们在徒步旅行的预期率下烘焙的好代表。
1261	The idea that the euro is falling versus the dollar, the lowest right now, the weakest going back to late October as people assess the possibility of a 50 basis point rate hike come in next month.	欧元对美元正在下降,是目前最低的,随着人们评估50个基点利率上升的可能性,最弱者会回到10月下旬。
1262	And then in the oil space, you do see a bit of a tempering of some of the optimism in the Middle East.	然后在石油空间,你确实看到中东的一些乐观情绪有所缓和。
1263	You had seen this huge sell off in oil prices still subdued versus where they've been over the past couple of weeks, but higher by about two percent in Brent.	你曾经看到这种巨大的油价销量 相对于过去几周的销量 仍然低迷 但比布伦特高约2%
1264	Maybe the market just got a little bit over its skis that they actually thought there was going to be a diplomatic agreement between the Iranians and the United States.	也许市场刚刚翻过滑雪台, 他们实际上认为伊朗和美国将达成外交协议。
1265	Obviously, now we're just back to status quo and some of that geopolitical risk premium is coming back in Brent, though, is still under one hundred dollars a barrel.	显然,现在我们刚刚回到现状, 一些地缘政治风险溢价正在布伦特回来,虽然, 仍然低于100美元一桶。
1266	That's pretty significant.	这是相当重要的。
1267	Yeah, the wheel of fortune this morning and frankly, for the past couple of days, keeps on landing on one name two hours away from the cash open.	是的,今天早上的幸运之轮 坦白地说,在过去的几天里, 一直以一个名字降落 在现金开着的两小时之外。
1268	Here are morning movers with Isabelle Lee looking at that name and one man very much in the spotlight.	这是晨间搬家的 伊莎贝尔·李看着这个名字 还有一个人在聚光灯下
1269	Hi, Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
1270	The wheel of fortune indeed landed on Nvidia and you're seeing green on your screen.	幸运之轮真的降落在恩维迪亚上 你屏幕上看到绿色
1271	It's higher by nearly 4 percent in pre-market trade.	在市场前贸易中,它增加了近4%。
1272	And that's after a 10 percent slide this week, wiping out nearly 450 billion dollars in market value.	这个星期滑了10%, 冲掉了近4500亿美元的市值。
1273	Make no mistake, there's still a lot of serious headwinds for this company.	别犯错,这家公司仍然有很多严重的头风.
1274	And actually, month to date, it's lost something like 20 percent.	事实上,从一个月到今天, 它损失了大约20%。
1275	So Baird actually just downgraded the stock.	所以Baird把股票降级了
1276	The analysts, they're citing potential government action when it comes to a congressional hearing.	分析员们,他们引用 潜在的政府行动 在国会听证会上。
1277	Again, investors are really questioning what this will mean for Nvidia, what it will mean for tighter export restrictions.	投资者们再次质疑这对恩维迪亚意味着什么,对更严格的出口限制意味着什么。
1278	And even possible government action.	甚至可能 政府的行动。
1279	But I guess investors are choosing to look at some optimism today because for the broader market, we're seeing neoclouds actually boost the overall sentiment.	但我想投资者们今天选择看一些乐观, 因为对于更广泛的市场来说,我们看到新云实际上提高了整体的情绪。
1280	这在很大程度上是CoreWeave。
1281	The company raised their earnings outlook for the year.	该公司提高了当年的收入前景。
1282	And you can almost hear, Lisa, the sigh of relief from a lot of those analysts who were really rattled by the sell off that we saw last week.	丽莎,你几乎可以听到, 从许多分析家的叹息, 他们真的被我们上周看到的卖掉。
1283	The blue sweep also adding to that anti data center sentiment.	蓝色扫荡也增加了反数据中心的情绪。
1284	But for now, investors are really liking what they're seeing.	但现在,投资者真的喜欢他们看到的。
1285	你看CoreWeave, 他们的弹出近20%。
1286	The company said they're still finding new customers and they're expanding infrastructure.	公司表示,他们仍在寻找新的客户,并且正在扩大基础设施.
1287	But to be sure, they're still concerned about heavy spending and its aggressive debt load.	但可以肯定的是,他们仍然对沉重的开支及其侵略性债务负担感到关切.
1288	But I guess investors are choosing to look at the good news.	但我想投资者会选择看好消息
1289	And finally, let's end it with one more earnings.	最后,让我们再赚一笔
1290	And that's Fossil Group.	那是化石集团
1291	You see the stock there higher by more than 25 percent.	你看,那里的股票 超过25%。
1292	So the company raised their full year sales outlook and also posted sooner than expected growth.	于是公司提升了全年的销售前景,也比预期的增长更快地上市.
1293	So the turnaround plan is really translating in the top line and profitability, Lisa.	因此,转换计划真的 翻译在顶线和利润,丽莎。
1294	Thank you so much, Isabelle.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔。
1295	On our radar this morning, Anthropix bankers considering plans to boost the company's valuation to one and a half trillion dollars or higher.	今天上午,安特罗皮克斯银行家们 考虑把公司估值提升到1.5万亿美元或更高
1296	This, according to the Financial Times, that bankers are pushing to raise the share price above the announced 70 to 78 dollar range.	据"金融时报"报道,银行家们正在推动将股价提升到70至78美元范围以上.
1297	Secretary of State Marko is going to change, period.	马尔科国务卿要换人了
1298	Intruder declined to commenting on the scandal unfolding at the chipmaker.	入侵者拒绝评论在芯片制造厂发生的丑闻。
1299	But it goes to the heart of the point, AMH, that ultimately 80 percent of the A.I.	但它的心脏,AMH, 最终80%的人工智能。
1300	that people use is fueled by Nvidia related chips.	人们使用的是Nvidia相关芯片
1301	This is an essential part of the A.I.	这是人工智能的重要组成部分。
1302	ecosystem.	生态系统。
1303	我相信CoreWeave 几乎都是这样
1304	A quarter of a million chips are coming from Nvidia and that's how they power this neocloud.	来自Nvidia的25万块芯片 这就是他们如何为这个新云提供动力。
1305	同时,Jensen Wong, 当CoreWeave和所有这些债务都引起人们的关注时,
1306	Jensen Wong was one of those individuals that came out and said, I don't have concerns.	简森 黄是那些出来的人之一 说,我没有担心。
1307	I think they are financially healthy.	我觉得他们在经济上是健康的。
1308	So you could see why for this CEO.	这样你就能明白为什么这位首席执行官。
1309	Might be kind of tough to criticize.	可能很难批评
1310	But at the end of the day, whether Jensen Wong is there or not, Nvidia chips, they are paramount and they're in the linchpin for all these data centers.	但最终无论黄杰森是否在那里,Nvidia芯片, 它们都至高无上,它们处于所有这些数据中心的关键。
1311	我从A. I.
1312	analysts when I speak to them over the past couple of days saying, really, we're focusing on an affair now with a potential spy and Chinese spy.	过去几天里我和他们交谈时 分析家们说,真的,我们现在 专注于一个潜在的间谍和中国间谍的外遇。
1313	Why aren't we looking at TSMC earnings?	为什么我们不看TSMC的收入?
1314	Why aren't we looking at CoreWeave earnings?	我们为什么不看CoreWeave的收入?
1315	All coming in stronger than expected, reflecting this acceleration in adoption.	所有这些都比预期的要强,反映出收养速度加快。
1316	You get that sense that when people look at the fundamentals, they're saying there's a lot to buy and yet.	你明白,当人们看基本情况时, 他们说有很多东西可以买到,然而。
1317	And that's why you've got the bear downgrade this morning.	所以你今早才让熊降级
1318	Exactly, because it's that controversy.	正是因为那场争论
1319	And it's just taking some of the heat off this trade a little bit because this is a key man.	它只是从这个交易中 取出一些热量 因为这是一个关键人物。
1320	This is a massive risk to this company because they have not set up a succession plan because this is not just a personal extramarital affair and indiscretion.	这对这家公司来说是一个巨大的风险,因为他们没有制定继任计划,因为这不仅仅是个人婚外情和不谨慎.
1321	This is alleged to be a Chinese spy that was potentially bringing some of these chips that are against U.S.	这据称是一名中国间谍,他可能带了一些反对美国的筹码。
1322	export controls into China and potentially this individual was getting involved at the behest of this person.	进入中国的出口管制,而且此人有可能在此人的指使下参与其中。
1323	This is why this is so controversial.	这就是为什么这有争议的原因。
1324	It is not just your normal everyday potential controversy in the species.	这不仅仅是你每天在物种中 遇到的争议
1325	This is much bigger than that.	这比这大得多。
1326	A lot of people trying to look past it and you still are seeing capital markets very much open,	很多人试图通过它,你仍然看到资本市场非常开放,
1327	whether it's Anthropics IPO or whether it's a lot of hyperscalers coming to market over the past couple of weeks.	无论是人类学IPO 还是过去几周来很多超规模的市场
1328	Alphabet seeking three billion dollars in its first ever Asian bond sale.	在它有史以来第一次的亚洲债券销售中,字母表寻求30亿美元.
1329	The latest sign, the A.I.	最新标志是A. I.
1330	debt machine has no plans of slowing down.	债务机器没有减速的计划。
1331	Hyperscalers printing 67 billion dollars in bonds in just the last two weeks,	在过去的两周里 超规模公司印刷了670亿美元的债券
1332	pushing year to date issuance to nearly three hundred billion dollars, blowing past Goldman Sachs's full year forecast.	使高盛全年的预测被吹毁
1333	Amanda Linum of Goldman writing, We are still penciling in that 35 percent of hyperscalers capex will be debt financed in	Goldman的Amanda Linum写道, 我们还在写, 35%的超规模的盖顶 将会是债务融资
1334	twenty twenty seven, which equates to roughly four hundred and forty billion dollars of direct issuance.	27美元,相当于4400亿美元的直接发行。
1335	Amanda joins us now from work.	阿曼达现在下班了
1336	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
1337	Thank you for having me.	谢谢你邀请我
1338	Great to have you here.	很高兴你能来
1339	And this was the fear about a week ago, which seems like a lifetime ago when people were saying,	这是一周前的恐惧, 这似乎就像一辈子前 人们说,
1340	is the credit train kind of parking its park its gates and saying no more, we're not going to finance this.	是信用列车类型 停车 它的大门 并说不再, 我们不会资助这一点。
1341	And it seems like over the past couple of weeks, the answer has been not at all.	似乎在过去的几个星期里 答案完全没有
1342	It's very much open.	甚开.
1343	How do you make sense of the whipsaw that we've seen in narrative?	你怎么解释我们在叙事中看到的鞭锯?
1344	So I think you hit it right on the head.	所以我觉得你撞到头了
1345	A focus on the fundamentals is, I think, where credit investors still are.	我认为,关注基本问题,就是信用投资者仍然在那里。
1346	The primary topic of our conversations is what does monetization look like in twenty twenty eight?	我们谈话的主要话题是 货币化在28年是什么样子?
1347	And I think credit investors importantly have almost accepted the fact that we are almost on the hook for funding the delay between	我认为信用投资人 已经几乎接受了一个事实,即 我们几乎在钩 融资
1348	investment and monetization in this cycle.	在这个周期中投资和货币化。
1349	But as that debt accumulates and as we continue to have this capital markets activity,	但随着债务的积累 和我们继续有这种资本市场活动,
1350	what will be really key is showing that sign of adoption and monetization in twenty twenty eight.	真正的关键是显示 28 年的收养和货币化迹象。
1351	The issuance that you that you cited, definitely robust in terms of values, but it is coming at wider new issue concessions.	你所引述的发行,在价值方面无疑是有力的,但它正在出现更广泛的新问题特许权。
1352	And so this has been our view all along is that investors will be more selective about where they take this risk.	因此,我们一直认为 投资者将更加有选择地选择他们承担风险的地方。
1353	And at what price?	什么价钱?
1354	And it is taking a larger price, a larger discount to clear the market.	并且要付出更大的代价, 更大的折扣才能清空市场。
1355	How comforting was core we have to you?	我们对你有多安慰?
1356	There was a speculation that that type of business model would get hammered because the cost of funding was relatively high versus the	有人猜测,这种类型的商业模式会受到打击,因为相对全球而言,筹资成本相对较高。
1357	return on investment.	投资收益。
1358	Did those fears get dispelled yesterday?	昨天这些恐惧被消除了吗?
1359	And credit to my equity colleague who's been constructive on this name, Gabriella Borges, for a while.	感谢我的股权同事 他一直对这个名字很有建设性 加布里埃拉·博尔赫斯
1360	She upgraded it when sentiment was not in that direction.	她升级了它 当情绪不是朝那个方向。
1361	I think the key point that Gabriella raised and I this resonates from the credit side as well.	我认为Gabriella和我提出的要点 也是信用方面的共鸣
1362	Focus on the unlevered IRR versus the higher weighted average cost of capital.	重点放在未到期的IRR相对于较高的加权平均资本成本上。
1363	We talked about how this debt is taking a larger discount to clear.	我们谈论了这笔债务如何得到更大的折扣来清理。
1364	So therefore, bake that into your expectations.	因此,把这一点融入你的期望。
1365	And then so long as that difference is accretive, that I think gives this momentum more room to run.	然后,只要这种差异是巨大的, 我认为这个势头会有更多的空间运行。
1366	The key point that we have raised, however, is that capitals are increasingly being viewed holistically by investors.	然而,我们提出的关键问题是,投资者日益从整体上看待各国首都。
1367	So in the spring, I was having a lot of conversations with equity investors who are basically saying,	所以在春天,我和股票投资者进行了很多对话 他们基本上说,
1368	I can't even believe we're talking about access to capital for this ecosystem because these are so profitable and so exciting companies.	我什至不能相信,我们谈论的 获取资本为这个生态系统, 因为这些是 如此盈利和如此刺激的公司。
1369	Fast forward to more recently, I think equity investors in particular have realized that access to financing is a competitive advantage and	最近,我认为股权投资者尤其认识到,获得融资是一种竞争优势,
1370	strong balance sheets are a competitive advantage as these companies are almost kind of competing for the same pools of capital.	强劲的资产负债表是一种竞争优势,因为这些公司几乎在竞争同一批资本。
1371	So in that high yield ecosystem, what we will be watching is do we have the same recovery in issuance activity that we've already seen in IG?	因此,在这个高产量的生态系统中, 我们将会看到的是, 我们的发行活动有同样的恢复, 就像我们在IG中已经看到的那样?
1372	It feels like high yield is in a bit of a price discovery mode at the moment.	感觉目前高产处于价格发现模式中.
1373	I think that will eventually normalize.	我认为这最终会正常化。
1374	But that's the key point that we're watching.	但这正是我们所关注的关键所在。
1375	Do you think a 50 basis point rate hike would essentially cause the high yield market to close?	你认为50个基点的涨价 会导致高收益市场关闭吗?
1376	Well, I would say that's not the base case of our economists.	我想说这不是我们经济学家的基本案例。
1377	But the key point from our perspective is that this is really about monetization.	但从我们的观点来看,关键在于 这其实是货币化。
1378	Cost of capital is almost a secondary concern here.	资本成本几乎是次要问题。
1379	So I think it is really the fundamental validation of the business model is what our conversations with investors are really focusing in on the cost of	因此,我认为这真的是 基本验证商业模式 是我们与投资者的对话 真正专注于成本
1380	capital.	资本。
1381	I would characterize that as an unwelcome headwind to the leverage finance market where they're already kind of in some instances	我将它描述为一种不受欢迎的头风 到杠杆金融市场 他们已经 在一些情况下
1382	struggling to grow into debt capital structures that might have been formed in an ultra low rate environment at peak valuations before	难以成长为债务资本结构,而这种结构可能是在当时最高估值时的超低利率环境中形成的。
1383	AI related risks could really be underwritten to the business model.	与大赦国际有关的风险实际上可以与商业模式联系起来。
1384	Software is a great example of that.	软件就是一个很好的例子。
1385	So if we have a more extended or more steep hiking cycle, again, I don't necessarily think that's our base case at the moment.	所以,如果我们有一个 更延长或更陡峭的徒步周期, 再次,我 不一定认为这是我们的基础情况 目前。
1386	But that would just be an added pressure.	但这只是一个额外的压力。
1387	But as it relates to the AI ecosystem, I don't think it's cost of capital that derails this.	但是,由于它与AI生态系统有关,我不认为是资本成本使此事脱轨.
1388	I think really what would derail it in terms of the credit market's ability to lend is if we don't see monetization in twenty twenty eight.	我认为,从信贷市场的贷款能力来看, 真正的破坏是 如果我们不看到货币化 在28。
1389	I don't think anyone was really expecting an answer on that in twenty twenty six or even in early twenty twenty seven.	我认为没有人真的期待 答案在二十六年甚至二十七年初。
1390	But that's the key point is that we really need to see that adoption.	但关键是,我们确实需要看到这种收养。
1391	How do you view the political headwinds, the midterm elections, the states that are flipping with now Democratic governors,	你如何看待政治风潮,中期选举, 与现在的民主党州长,
1392	Democratic attorney generals?	民主总检察长?
1393	Yeah.	对
1394	So our in-house experts, both on the political economist side and on the data center side, basically expect the results of the U.S.	因此,我们的内部专家,无论是政治经济学家方面还是数据中心方面,基本上都期望着美国的结果.
1395	midterm elections to prolong the investment cycle and increase the cost.	中期选举,延长投资周期,增加成本。
1396	But they don't expect it to actually change the addressable market of data centers to be built.	但他们并不期望它能真正改变 数据中心的可地址市场。
1397	The other point that they've raised, which I thought was interesting, is that there's just such a long delay about when data centers are announced and then starting to be built and completed.	他们提出的另一点,我认为很有趣, 就是关于何时公布数据中心,然后开始建设和完成, 总是有这么长的延迟。
1398	But actually, they have pretty good line of sight into twenty twenty eight.	但实际上,它们有相当好的视线 到28。
1399	So that's part of the reason why we're still confident that the debt markets are going to play a large role here,	所以这就是我们为什么仍然相信 债务市场会在这里发挥很大作用的原因之一
1400	because even if we did have a slowdown in data center capacity, then that would actually be a twenty twenty eight, twenty twenty nine event.	因为即使我们数据中心的容量减慢了, 那其实是28,29个事件。
1401	But we still see the debt markets actually playing a key role.	但我们仍然看到债务市场实际上发挥着关键作用。
1402	You mentioned the 35 percent of capex that we expect to be debt financed.	你提到百分之三十五的封顶, 我们期望得到债务融资。
1403	That's just one part of the story, because there's also a lot of off balance sheet obligations that we're tracking.	这仅仅是故事的一部分, 因为还有很多 资产负债表之外的义务,我们正在追踪。
1404	How much does a debt market need to see the equity market remain open to some of these names to maintain confidence?	一个债务市场需要多少才能看到股权市场对其中一些名字保持信心?
1405	That's something that we've increasingly seen, whether it's Metta, some of the other names that have been issuing more equity in tandem with debt.	这一点,我们越来越看到, 无论是梅塔, 其他一些名字 发行更多的股本 与债务。
1406	Is that the model to follow for you?	这就是你需要遵循的模式吗?
1407	I think it's helpful.	我觉得有帮助。
1408	I don't think it's critical for the credit markets to see equity issuance,	我觉得信用市场看股票发行并不重要
1409	because a lot of these capital structures are starting from positions where they're very under levered and they're very highly rated.	因为很多这些基建结构都起源于 处于非常低的杠杆位置 并且被评为很高的等级
1410	So they don't actually need an equity injection in most cases to protect the ratings.	因此在多数情况下他们实际上不需要股权注入来保护收视率.
1411	But I think it's helpful and it's very consistent with our view that look,	但我认为这很有帮助 而且非常符合我们的观点
1412	there's a variety of markets, structures and currencies that will be required in this build out.	这里有各种各样的市场,结构和货币 需要在这个建设。
1413	And that's it's kind of an all hands on deck situation in our view.	在我们看来,这是一举一动
1414	How concerned are you about potential cockroaches?	你有多关心潜在的蟑螂?
1415	And I'm sorry to whip out that that metaphor at this moment.	我很遗憾现在能用这个比喻
1416	But we were speaking with Bill Dudley earlier in the past week or so, and he was raising the specter of a financial crisis.	但是我们上周早些时候和比尔·达德利谈过了 他提起了一场金融危机的隐患
1417	Should the A.I.	应该是A. I.
1418	A. I. (英语).
1419	Promise kind of come in underwhelming and a lot of people keep pointing to credit markets and to private credit in particular as a node of transmission?	很多人不断指向信贷市场 特别是私人信贷 成为传输的节点?
1420	How do you track that?	你怎么追踪到的?
1421	What kind of concern should there be about that type of thing?	对这种事情应该有什么关切?
1422	So I think there's a bit of a blurring of the lines between private and public credit and actually the traditional definition of private credit kind of directly negotiated lending to middle market companies.	所以我认为私人信贷和公共信贷之间的界限有点模糊, 实际上,私人信贷的传统定义是直接通过谈判向中间市场公司贷款。
1423	That hasn't been the heavy hand in this A.I.	这不是A. I.
1424	That was actually a big component of private equity financing for software deals.	这实际上是软件交易私人股本融资的一大部分。
1425	But they actually haven't been playing a very large role in the A.I.	但他们实际上并没有在A. I.
1426	build out, except for recently where we've seen some of these directly negotiated chip financings.	除了最近我们看到的 这些直接谈判的芯片融资
1427	They start in the private markets and then in many ways they syndicate into the credit markets over time.	它们开始于私人市场,然后在许多方面逐渐联合进入信贷市场。
1428	The reason they're starting in the private markets in our view is just because they're very large.	在我们看来,他们从私人市场开始的原因 只是因为他们很大。
1429	They're very complex and they just can't start in day one on the syndicated market.	他们非常复杂 他们不能在第一天开始 在辛迪加市场。
1430	One of those was a 16 tranche delay draw term loan.	其中之一是16个阶段的延期定期贷款。
1431	Could you imagine that coming to the syndicated market on day one?	你能想象第一日会来银团市场吗?
1432	So part of this is just because the private markets offer something that syndicated markets can't, which is certainty of financing and certainty of execution.	这部分只是因为私人市场 提供了一些银团市场无法提供的东西, 也就是融资的确定性和执行的确定性。
1433	But it's not as though this risk is hiding.	但并不是说这种风险是隐藏的
1434	The rating agencies are counting it.	评级机构正在统计
1435	Investors are counting it like we're all counting it.	投资者在数它 就像我们都在数它。
1436	It's just from a functionality perspective.	只是从功能角度来说.
1437	It needs to start in an area where you can get clarity on anchor investors and pricing.	它需要从一个领域开始 你可以得到清晰 锁定投资者和定价。
1438	Amanda, thank you so much for being here this morning, Amanda of Goldman Sachs with us here in New York.	阿曼达 非常感谢你今早来 高盛的阿曼达和我们一起来纽约
1439	Right now, let's head over to Isabelle Lee with some updates on other stories this morning.	现在,让我们去伊莎贝尔李 与一些更新的其他故事今天上午。
1440	Hey, Isabelle.	嘿,伊莎贝尔。
1441	Hi, Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
1442	The U.S. Commerce Department holding off on blacklisting Megaspeed.	美国商务部搁置 黑名单兆速。
1443	The Financial Times reporting that the state, Treasury, Energy and Defense pushed a blacklisted company linked to an alleged Chinese spy who had an affair with Nvidia CEO.	"金融时报"报道,国家,财政部,能源与国防部门推倒了一家黑名单公司,该公司与一名涉嫌与Nvidia CEO有染的中国间谍有关联.
1444	And IBM is ending U.S. visa and green card sponsorship for some of it for some roles in its largest division, and that is IBM Consulting.	而IBM正在结束美国签证和绿卡赞助, 部分赞助者是IBM Consulting公司最大的部门,
1445	This follows a crackdown by the Trump administration on a program that's been a talent pipeline for the tech industry.	此前特朗普政府曾镇压过一个曾是技术产业人才管道的方案.
1446	Impacted workers can continue working outside the U.S. or leave the company at the end of the year.	受到影响的工人可以继续在美国以外工作,或者在年底离开公司.
1447	And the Kennedy family trying to block President Donald Trump's proposed arc near Arlington National Cemetery.	而肯尼迪家族试图封锁总统唐纳德·特朗普在阿灵顿国家公墓附近的拟议弧.
1448	Family members join a legal challenge, arguing that the 250 foot structure would interfere with memorial gravesites, including John F. Kennedy's Eternal Flame.	家庭成员加入法律挑战,认为250英尺的结构会干扰纪念墓地,包括约翰·F·肯尼迪的永恒火焰.
1449	That's your Bloomberg Brief, Lisa.	这是你的彭博简介 Lisa
1450	Thank you so much, Isabelle.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔。
1451	接下来,Anthropic的巨型IPO测试.
1452	我认为Anthropic会是一个坚实的IPO.
1453	The idea that it's going to come out at a trillion dollar type price seems extremely optimistic to me.	以万亿美元的价格出场的想法,在我看来是极其乐观的.
1454	Whether the company goes public at a trillion, one point two trillion, two trillion.	公司是否以万亿,1点2万亿,2万亿公开.
1455	The market will figure out what the right price is.	市场会找出正确的价格。
1456	Onorah Grana of Bloomberg Intelligence joins us next.	彭博情报部的Onorah Grana 接下来会加入我们
1457	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
1458	This is Bloomberg Surveillance.	这是布隆伯格监视。
1459	Stocks staging a rally today.	股票在今天举行集会
1460	Maybe it's a good thing that bond markets are closed.	也许债券市场关闭是件好事.
1461	And bond markets yesterday torpedoed some of the momentum that we had been seeing today.	债券市场昨天破坏了我们今天所看到的一些势头。
1462	Nasdaq features up almost 2 percent.	Nasdaq的特征几乎达到了2%。
1463	S&P futures up nine tenths of a percent.	S&P期货涨了十分之九
1464	A bit more optimism following what we saw in Corweave.	根据我们在科维夫所看到的 更乐观一点
1465	Corweave shares absolutely flying this morning after projecting revenue of 13 to 13.3 billion dollars this year.	今年预计收入为133亿美元后,
1466	It exceeded the 12.9 billion that Wall Street had predicted pretty much across the board.	它超过了华尔街几乎全面预测的129亿.
1467	It beat and it showed that it could still get a real good return even with a higher cost of capital image.	它拍了下来,它显示,即使资本形象的成本更高,它仍然可以得到真正的良好回报。
1468	Yes, absolutely.	是的,当然。
1469	When it comes to Corweave, they have this basically earnings report that they desperately needed up more than 16 percent this morning.	当关于科瑞夫, 他们基本上有一份收入报告, 他们迫切需要超过16%的今天上午。
1470	And basically these concerns about what's going on in their debt market, they were able to get rid of that with this	基本上,这些担心 他们的债务市场正在发生, 他们能够摆脱这个
1471	re-ignition of basically what their earnings outlook is going to be in their revenue on that higher end.	重新点燃他们的收入前景 基本上将在高端的收入。
1472	Yeah, and it's keeping a lot of the cloud offerings that the neo clouds positive this morning	是啊,它保留了很多 云祭品 新云阳性今天上午
1473	or really ahead of the drumbeat that we're going to get next week with Anthropics IPO pricing under surveillance this morning.	或真正领先于鼓手 我们下周会得到 与人类学IPO定价 监控今天上午。
1474	Anthropics mega IPO test.	人类学巨型IPO测试.
1475	I think that Anthropics will be a solid IPO.	我认为人类学会是一个坚实的IPO.
1476	The idea that it's going to come out at a trillion dollar type price seems extremely optimistic to me.	以万亿美元的价格出场的想法,在我看来是极其乐观的.
1477	Clearly, there still is this reach of a very high valuation of one point one, one point two trillion, even if that's down.	显然,仍然有如此高的 价值1点,1点2万亿, 即使它下降。
1478	Whether the company goes public at a trillion, one point two trillion, two trillion, the market will figure out what the right price is.	公司是否以万亿,1点2万亿,2万亿公开,市场将找出正确的价格.
1479	Here's the latest Anthropics taking aim at Microsoft and Alphabet.	以下是最新的人类学 瞄准微软和字母。
1480	The cloud maker unveiling new workplace tools today ahead of its one point four trillion dollar IPO.	云端制造者今日推出新的工作场所工具 领先于其1分4万亿美元IPO.
1481	Joining us now, Anurag Rana of Bloomberg Intelligence.	加入我们,彭博情报部的阿努拉格·拉纳
1482	This comes, Anurag, after we got updates on Mythos and Fable.	阿努拉格,我们收到关于神话和寓言的更新后
1483	Now these new tools.	现在这些新工具。
1484	What do we know, Anurag, and how much of a threat is it to the likes of Microsoft?	阿努拉格,我们知道什么? 微软受到多少威胁?
1485	Yeah, I mean, given that Anthropics has to do with IPO, this is a no brainer for them in terms of saying that, listen,	是啊,我的意思是,考虑到人类学 与IPO有关, 这对于他们说,听着,
1486	these are the addressable markets we can go after.	这些都是可以解决的市场 我们可以去追寻。
1487	If you go back and look at what happened in January, there was a massive software meltdown when everybody thought that, you know,	如果你回去看看1月份发生的事, 发生了一场巨大的软件崩溃, 当时每个人都认为,你知道,
1488	Anthropics will take over a lot of this industry.	人类学将接管这个行业的许多部分.
1489	Software is a one trillion dollar market, so you can imagine them trying to get more and more of it.	软件是一个万亿美金的市场, 你可以想象他们试图获得越来越多的。
1490	Now, when it comes to productivity apps like Microsoft Office, I think it's not it's not going to be easy for them to take over the	现在,当涉及到像微软Office这样的生产力应用软件时,我认为他们不会轻易接手.
1491	four hundred fifty million commercial paid seats that Microsoft has, especially when Microsoft can access all the models,	微软拥有的4.5亿个商业付费座位,特别是微软可以访问所有模型时,
1492	including Claude, into their own productivity applications.	包括克劳德,进入他们自己的生产力应用.
1493	What do you make of these reports that Anthropics is targeting a higher valuation of one and a half trillion dollars?	你对这些报道有什么看法, 人类学正在针对一个更高的价值 1.5万亿美元?
1494	Do you think that some of the drumbeat of new products that have been coming out could justify that type of enthusiasm?	你认为有些新产品的鼓手 可以证明这种热情是合理的吗?
1495	You know, I think after SpaceX, you would want to go out with the biggest possible valuation, especially when the kind of growth	你知道,我想SpaceX之后, 你会想出去 最大的可能的估价, 特别是当这种增长
1496	Anthropics is showing, their models are superior than the others when it comes to the frontier, anything frontier.	人类学显示,他们的模型 优于其他人 当它涉及到前沿,任何前沿。
1497	So I think this is going to be a very interesting one.	所以,我认为这将是 一个非常有趣的。
1498	The appetite of it will not just decide what's going to happen with Anthropics and some of the software names, but also what	它的胃口不仅会决定 Anthropics 和一些软件名称会发生什么,而且还会决定
1499	happens down the stream on the all the infrastructure trade.	发生在所有基础设施贸易中
1500	When it comes to Anthropics, how important is it to have a successful IPO for when it comes to OpenAI going into twenty twenty seven?	关于人类学,成功IPO对于OpenAI进入27时有多重要?
1501	Oh, absolutely.	当然
1502	This is no doubt.	这毫无疑问。
1503	This is probably one of the biggest events as it relates to AI, because a successful Anthropics	这可能是最大的事件之一 因为涉及到AI, 因为一个成功的人类学
1504	IPO will not only lead the way for OpenAI, but I would say multiple so many other AI first companies that are just waiting on the	IPO不仅会为OpenAI领先,我还会说许多其他AI的首创公司正在等待着OpenAI的到来.
1505	sidelines to go public because, you know, very soon or maybe if the cost of funding keeps on going up, you know, they will they may	因为,你知道,很快, 或也许如果资金成本继续上升, 你知道,他们会
1506	not have that much of private funding that they can easily raise.	没有这么多的私人资金 他们可以轻易筹集。
1507	So they need to go to the public markets at that point.	因此,他们需要去公共市场 在这一点上。
1508	When you look at this financial time story about the bankers expecting to raise the share price above the 70 to 78, where are you	当你看这个金融时间的故事 银行家们希望 将股价提高到70到78, 你在哪里?
1509	coming down to in terms of how do you actually think this is going to shake out?	说到底你觉得这会怎样?
1510	See, a lot depends on what kind of error or growth rate we can see over the next six to 12 months, because that dictates whether you	你看,很多取决于 我们可以看到什么样的错误 或增长率 在接下来的六到十二个月, 因为那决定你是否
1511	come out at one point two trillion or one point four.	出来1点 2兆或1点4。
1512	And I think that if they go out and give a brand new number before the before I	我想如果他们出门 并在我之前给出一个全新的号码
1513	would say the the launch date, I mean, that could help the valuation in that case.	说发射日期,我的意思是, 这会帮助评估在这种情况下。
1514	What do you make of the investors that have been disclosed as significant parts of this IPO?	你对被披露为IPO重要部分的投资者有何看法?
1515	It's who's who in tech.	是谁在技术领域。
1516	It's Nvidia,	这是恩维迪亚,
1517	among many others.	包括许多其他人。
1518	你也在谈论AMD和Broadcom等人.
1519	Is that a good thing or is that potentially	这是好事还是有潜力的
1520	highlighting the ongoing vulnerability coming from the circular financing in AI?	• 突出AI的循环融资带来的持续脆弱性?
1521	So you just go back a few years and Tropic was a very small startup.	所以,你只是回到 几年和热带是一个很小的启动。
1522	And in order for them to grow, they really needed compute.	为了让他们成长,他们真的需要计算。
1523	And	还有
1524	that's when they partnered with the likes of AWS and even Salesforce put in some money.	那时他们和AWS一样合作 甚至卖力公司也投入了一些钱
1525	And I don't think anybody in their	我不认为任何人在他们的
1526	wildest dream would have thought them to become this big.	最疯狂的梦会认为它们会变成这么大的
1527	And it's very normal for all cloud providers and tech companies to feed	所有云端供应商和技术公司 都能正常地提供食物
1528	money into a startup.	钱到启动。
1529	But I don't think I've ever seen anything rise this quickly in terms of the stake that they have put in.	但是,我想我从来没有见过任何东西 迅速上升,从他们投入的赌注。
1530	And the other aspect of this is that the actual revenue run rate has superseded all expectations, something like 81 billion dollars	另一方面是 实际收益率已经超过了所有预期 大约810亿美元
1531	as of the end of October than the latest S1.	截至10月底,比最新的S1。
1532	And it raises this issue of yes, they are showing exponential growth.	它提出了“是”的问题,它们呈现出指数增长。
1533	But can that	但可以这样
1534	continue into twenty twenty eight, twenty twenty nine at a time when you've got open source models and so many other competitors	持续到28,29 当你有开放源代码模型 和许多其他竞争者的时候
1535	springing up?	弹簧?
1536	Yeah, I think open open source, open weight, that is the single biggest thing I think that can have a problem with the	是的,我认为开放源码, 开放重量, 这是我认为最大的一件事,
1537	growth rates.	增长率。
1538	But these guys claim that as long as they are on the edge of frontier, there will be use cases, you know, whether	但这些人声称,只要他们处于边境边缘, 就会有案件,你知道,是否
1539	that's coding, whether that's health care, whether that's drug discovery.	这是编码, 无论这是保健, 无论是药物发现。
1540	You know, the open weight model still are far behind as it	你知道,开放重量模型 仍然远远落后于它
1541	comes to functionality.	来到功能。
1542	So there is a use case for frontier labs.	因此,有一个用于前沿实验室的案例。
1543	And you know, they will charge premium pricing for it.	他们会为此收取保费
1544	How do you think of some of the risks that has been facing this entire ecosystem?	你如何看待整个生态系统面临的一些风险?
1545	We got through the midterm elections, but	我们完成了中期选举,但是
1546	there's a huge overhang into next year in terms of what the data center build out looks like.	从数据中心的构造来看,明年会有巨大的重叠。
1547	The fact that you are seeing a	你看见一个...
1548	massive pushback on how these companies communicate with the public when it comes to you could see some of the concerns in polling.	在民意调查中,
1549	And at the	还有...
1550	same time, there's also a lot of this concern that this argument that we need to all get behind this trade because it's going to be a	同时,也有许多人担心 我们都需要支持这个交易 因为它将是一个
1551	geopolitical risk in terms of China.	中国地缘政治风险.
1552	Well, that doesn't seem to be a concern right now for this White House.	好吧,这似乎不是 现在关心这个白宫。
1553	How much of these risks do	这些风险有多少?
1554	you think are going to be baked into some of these share prices?	你觉得会被烤成这些股价吗?
1555	I think we're going to see some really volatile growth rates and funding areas	我想我们会看到一些非常不稳定的增长率和资金领域
1556	next year.	明年开始
1557	And the reason for that is so far it was only going in one direction.	原因是,到目前为止,它只是朝着一个方向发展。
1558	Now we are seeing some extension or the possibility of	现在我们看到一些扩展 或有可能
1559	extension of data centers down the road.	沿途扩展数据中心。
1560	Now, in our view, it's actually not a bad thing in some cases, whether it's for the hyperscale	现在,在我们看来, 在某些情况下,这其实不是坏事, 无论是超尺度
1561	cloud providers, which are now most of them are close to free cash flow negative.	云提供商,现在它们大多接近免费现金流负数.
1562	If anything, it's going to give them some breathing	如果有什么,会给他们一些呼吸
1563	room.	房间
1564	Let let investors see that they can see the real ROI for what they're investing.	让投资者看看他们能看清他们投资的真正价值
1565	And even if things get delayed a little bit, I	即使事情推迟了一点,我
1566	think it has an impact on some of the input costs or input.	认为它对一些投入成本或投入有影响.
1567	You know, you could say component makers.	你知道,你可以说组件制造。
1568	But I think in the long run,	但我认为从长远来看,
1569	it's it's may may not be a bad deal.	这可能是个不错的交易。
1570	Honor of Bloomberg Intelligence, thank you so much for being with us.	彭博情报局的荣誉 非常感谢你和我们在一起
1571	IPO应该是
1572	to price next week.	到下周的价格。
1573	A question of what this roadshow looks like.	问路展是什么样子
1574	There is going to be a call on Friday with Dario Amadei, the	周五会和达里奥·阿玛迪通话
1575	CEO of Anthropic, as well as Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan.	Anthropic的首席执行官,以及JP摩根的杰米·迪蒙.
1576	This is the retail call.	这是零售电话。
1577	And it's kind of a redux of what we saw with SpaceX.	它有点像我们所看到的SpaceX。
1578	I	一、导 言
1579	know.	知道吗?
1580	Remember, people actually forgot Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan.	记住,人们实际上忘记了杰米·迪蒙,JP·摩根.
1581	They weren't the lead.	他们不是主角
1582	They were further retail space.	它们是进一步的零售空间。
1583	But because they had	但因为他们有
1584	Elon Musk there, I think they had a rocket somewhere in the lobby.	埃隆·穆斯克在那里,我想他们在大厅的某处有一枚火箭.
1585	They did the branding of that very well.	他们做的品牌 非常好。
1586	I think it's going to be	我想这是
1587	interesting Friday and also next week where it actually prices because of what bankers are telling the Financial Times.	有趣的星期五和下星期 银行家们在《金融时报》上说到的 实际价格
1588	Yeah.	对
1589	And as	和作为
1590	drumbeat of new products comes out, a suite of fable and mythos, as well as other tools that more directly compete with Microsoft,	一套寓言和神话 以及其他更直接与微软竞争的工具
1591	we'll talk about that.	我们来谈谈
1592	We'll talk about bonds that are not trading today.	我们来谈谈今天不交易的债券
1593	Still a lot to discuss ahead of that Fed meeting next	在美联储下次会议之前 还有很多事要讨论
1594	week.	礼拜
1595	Coming up next hour, Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes, Jay Goldberg of Seaport.	下个小时,联邦的菲尔·奥兰多,海港的杰伊·戈德伯格
1596	Has he revised his cell rating on Nvidia	他是否修改了Nvidia的手机评级
1597	Abby Yoder of JP Morgan and David Rubinstein of the Carlisle Group as people wonder whether the capital market cycle is ending,	摩根JP的艾比·约德 和卡莱尔集团的大卫·鲁宾斯坦 人们怀疑资本市场周期是否结束
1598	本次Anthropic销售后IPO窗口是否关闭.
1599	All that's coming up next.	接下来的一切
1600	This is Bloomberg Surveillance.	这是布隆伯格监视。
1601	There's room for a little bit of relief rally if sentiment improves even just slightly.	如果情绪稍有改善, 就可以举行一些救济集会。
1602	I think right now that market cycle is	我觉得现在市场循环
1603	looking like it's under threat.	看起来像在受到威胁。
1604	The trade is really under pressure from all sides.	贸易受到来自各方的压力。
1605	The market is getting that angst out now.	市场正在得到 愤怒的现在。
1606	It's more	再来点
1607	difficult to buy when volatility is high.	当波动性大时很难购买。
1608	This is Bloomberg Surveillance with Jonathan Farrow, Lisa Abramowitz and Anne-Marie	这是彭博监听 与乔纳森·法罗,丽莎·阿布拉莫维茨和安妮-玛丽
1609	Hordurn.	霍顿
1610	Good morning.	早上好,你好吗?
1611	Welcome back to the third hour of Bloomberg Surveillance.	欢迎回到彭博第三小时的监控
1612	Futures gaining with 90 minutes to go before the	未来会提前90分钟
1613	market open.	市场开放。
1614	CoreWeave giving some optimism to investors about the trade.	CoreWeave给投资者一些对贸易的乐观.
1615	Earnings came in significantly better than expected	收入比预期高得多
1616	yesterday evening.	昨夜..
1617	Those shares up almost 16 percent, giving fuel to neoclouds, giving fuel to the tech trade.	给新云提供燃料 给科技贸易提供燃料
1618	Bond markets still	债券市场仍然存在
1619	closed for the Veterans Day today, holiday.	今天是退役军人节 节假日
1620	But markets are still reeling from yesterday's CPI report, putting a bigger than	但市场仍在回旋 从昨天的消费物价指数报告,
1621	expected rate hike on the table for December.	预计12月的汇率将上升。
1622	More data coming up tomorrow with PPI and a real question about how many more Fed	更多的数据明天会随着PPI出现 以及一个真正的问题 关于有多少更多的美联储
1623	members are going to join him in the Wheel of Fortune that we seem to be living in.	成员们会和他一起 参加我们似乎所居住的财富之轮
1624	This is sort of the latest to potentially hit	硂琌程穝
1625	the market.	市场。
1626	Just when the market was getting a little bit of CoreWeave coming out, assuaging some concerns about AI, you have now	就在市场出现CoreWeave的时候 缓解了对AI的担忧 你现在有了
1627	another big debate at the Federal Reserve.	美联储的又一场大辩论
1628	It's not whether or not December is on the table.	十二月是否在座则不是.
1629	It's on the table for 25.	25块放在桌子上
1630	But now	但现在
1631	that's debated.	这是辩论。
1632	Do they go bigger?	它们会变大吗?
1633	Do they go with 50 basis points, thanks to Governor Waller?	他们有50个基点吗?
1634	And you have a number of Fed	你有很多美联储
1635	officials coming out, especially notably yesterday.	特别是昨天
1636	Austin Goldsby saying he thought the inflation report was, quote,	奥斯汀·戈德斯比说,他认为通货膨胀报告是,引用,
1637	disturbing and he didn't want to use the word transitory.	他不想用"过渡"这个词
1638	He's like, yes, we can look through oil prices.	他就像,是的, 我们可以看看油价。
1639	Yes, we can maybe	是的,也许可以
1640	look through tariffs.	透视关税。
1641	But can we look through inflation still bleeding into service sectors like health care?	但是,我们能否通过通货膨胀来看待像保健这样的服务部门?
1642	That is where this debate	这就是本次辩论
1643	is going to be when it comes to federal.	当涉及到联邦的时候 将会是
1644	That's the economic data and a question about monetary policy in the next week.	这就是经济数据 以及下周货币政策的问题
1645	We also	我们也
1646	have a big IPO pricing.	IPO的定价很大
1647	The anthropic IPO expected to price, I believe on Wednesday, start trading on Thursday.	人类的IPO预计价格,我相信在星期三, 开始交易在星期四。
1648	That is what the	就是这样
1649	reports have been saying.	报告一直在说。
1650	Also, the expectation that Nvidia is going to have a call, the earnings call at a pretty fraught moment	还有,对Nvidia有电话的预期, 收入的呼唤在一个相当充满活力的时刻
1651	for its executive.	为它的行政部门。
1652	Nvidia is going to have an earnings call and that is call is going to be incredibly spicy.	Nvidia会有一个收入电话, 也就是电话会非常辣。
1653	Obviously, people are going to	显然,人们会
1654	want more clarity about what is going on with this affair with an alleged Chinese spy.	想要更清楚地了解 与这个中国间谍的外遇是怎么回事
1655	At the same time, the president will be in	同时,总统将加入
1656	China and this will be really the elephant in the room.	中国和这将会是房间里的大象
1657	When it comes to Nvidia after that earnings call, they have to respond to	当Nvidia在收入呼吁之后 他们必须回应
1658	Congress today, as Tyler Kendall has been saying, and whether or not Jensen Wong is going to go to D.C. and give this behind	正如泰勒·肯德尔所说,今天的国会 黄詹森是否打算去华盛顿 把这个交给你
1659	the closed door briefing to lawmakers, if they say no to that, then this is going to get a lot more fraught between Washington and this company.	闭门向立法者作简报 如果他们拒绝的话 华盛顿和这家公司之间就更麻烦了
1660	Well, right now you can see markets shrugging off a lot of the uncertainty.	现在,你可以看到市场 挤出很多的不确定性。
1661	The outsize gain today is in the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 1.8 percent	今天的超额收益在技术重的纳斯达克上升了1.8%
1662	following those core weave results that came in.	跟踪那些核心编织结果
1663	Projected revenue of 13 to 13.3 billion dollars this year, exceeding expectations, showing the run	今年预计收入为133亿至133亿美元,超过预期,显示运行情况
1664	rate continuing to defy some of the naysayers.	继续拒绝一些否认的人。
1665	S&P futures higher by eight-tenths of a percent.	S&P期货涨了百分之八
1666	You can see oil prices inflecting just a	你可以看到油价的反射
1667	bit higher.	有点高。
1668	There has been a lot of positivity, a sort of de-escalation already priced in still below at 90 dollars a barrel on WTI.	已经以每桶90美元的价格在WTI上降级。
1669	And the euro dollar is a good proxy for the rates bet, given the fact that people are looking for an outsize move, potentially from the	鉴于人们正在寻找一种规模外的移动,欧元是汇率下注的一个很好的代名词。
1670	market reserve, pricing in fully a 25 basis point hike in December.	市场储备,12月定价完全提高了25个基点。
1671	The euro at the lowest level since last month versus the dollar, as the dollar	欧元对美元是自上个月以来的最低水平
1672	seems to be ascendant.	似乎有升华性
1673	Coming up this hour, Phil Orlando have federated with equities bouncing back from an inflation-fueled sell-off.	这个小时,菲尔奥兰多 已经与股票联结 从通货膨胀驱动的销售回升。
1674	Jay Goldberg of Seaport on the Greek tragedy, playing out at Nvidia.	塞波特的杰伊·戈德伯格(Jay Goldberg)讲述了希腊悲剧,在恩维迪亚演出.
1675	And Abby Yoder of JP Morgan Private Bank as hawkish data	还有JP摩根私人银行的艾比・约德 作为鹰的数据
1676	boosts market sensitivity.	提高市场敏感性。
1677	We begin this hour with stocks rebounding.	我们从这个小时开始 股票反弹。
1678	Following the inflation-fueled sell-off yesterday, rate hike fears	在昨天通货膨胀刺激的销售之后 利率上涨的恐惧
1679	surging after that CPI report.	在消费物价指数报告后激增。
1680	Phil Orlando have federated, writing, the Fed will hike rates by another quarter point at the	菲尔·奥兰多已经联合起来,写道, 美联储将提高利率 四分之一点在
1681	upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9th.	即将于12月9日召开FOMC会议.
1682	And we continue to expect a third hike on March 17th, 2027.	我们继续期待在2027年3月17日第三次登山.
1683	Great to see you.	很高兴见到你。
1684	Thank you for being with us.	谢谢你和我们在一起
1685	Thanks so much for having me back.	谢谢你让我回来
1686	Yeah, so I just want to start with how dependent this economy is on the Fed, taking it easy,	是啊,所以我只想从这个经济 如何依赖美联储开始,放松,
1687	maybe not going so quickly, versus kind of resilient in the face of a tightening Fed policy.	面对紧缩的美联储政策,也许没有这么快, 而不是那种弹性。
1688	Fair point.	说得好
1689	We were frankly a little surprise	老实说,我们是个小惊喜
1690	that the Fed chose not to hike interest rates at the October meeting, given the ugliness of the inflation data leading into that.	美联储选择在10月的会议上不提高利率,因为导致通货膨胀数据的丑陋。
1691	So	这么说
1692	December hike, we think, is pretty well baked in.	12月的远足,我们认为, 相当不错的烘烤英寸
1693	We think another March hike.	我们想再去一次三月旅行
1694	But in recent days, given the heat from yesterday's CPI data	但最近几天,由于热 从昨天的CPI数据
1695	and the comments that Waller made, now the question is, does the Fed go 50 instead of 25?	和华勒的评论, 现在的问题是, 美联储去50而不是25?
1696	Is January now on the table?	一月现在在桌上吗?
1697	So there's a lot more Fed	所以还有更多的美联储
1698	uncertainty that seems to be filtering into the market.	不确定性似乎正在渗入市场。
1699	Bonds are closed today, so we don't really have a full sense of exactly how that's	债券今天关门了,所以我们不 真正有 完全感知到底如何
1700	going to work.	准备工作。
1701	In our view, go back to the Watergate era, follow the money.	在我们看来,回到水门时代,跟着钱走.
1702	What we've been doing is following energy prices, and crude oil	我们正在做的是跟踪能源价格和原油
1703	has been down about 20 bucks over the last month or so.	上个月已经下降了20美元左右。
1704	But the point that you made in the open, that yesterday's heat was not just energy,	但你公开提出的观点 昨天的热量不仅仅是能量
1705	there were some other things in there.	里面还有其他东西
1706	Now, are those temporary?	那些是暂时的吗?
1707	Will they wash themselves out in a month or two, or are they more permanent?	他们会在一两个月内把自己洗掉 还是更永久?
1708	And we've got to sort of sharpen our pencil and sort of rethink exactly what's going on with inflation.	我们必须把铅笔磨细 重新思考通货膨胀到底是怎么回事
1709	Well, Phil, even if you're following Brent and WTI, and yes, they have definitely declined, you are still seeing a very tight market.	好吧,菲尔,即使你跟踪布伦特和WTI, 是的,他们肯定已经下降, 你仍然看到一个非常紧张的市场。
1710	And even though we're below $4 a gallon, that only just happened.	尽管我们每加仑低于4美元, 那只是发生了。
1711	You're seeing tight market in diesel, jet fuel, and gasoline.	你看到柴油、喷气燃料和汽油市场紧张。
1712	This is really what hits the consumer.	这真的打击了消费者。
1713	No question.	没问题
1714	But looking at the picture more broadly, our view is that the Iran-Israel-U.S. situation was coming to an inflection point at the midterm elections.	但是,从更广的角度来看,我们认为,伊朗-以色列-美国局势在中期选举时正进入一个动荡阶段。
1715	In our view, the maritime blockade was actually working pretty well, and that the Iranians' last key piece of leverage, if you will, was the midterm elections.	我们认为,海上封锁实际上运作良好,伊朗人的最后一块关键杠杆,如果你想的话,就是中期选举。
1716	With the elections now behind, what additional points do the Iranians have?	现在选举落后了,伊朗人还有其他几点?
1717	Their economy is in tough shape, inflation's up, their currency's worthless.	他们的经济很艰难,通货膨胀上升,他们的货币毫无价值.
1718	They don't have much in the way of crude oil and inventory that they have the ability to export.	它们没有太多的原油和存货,它们有出口能力.
1719	They're at a key inflection point here.	他们正处在关键位置
1720	Do they negotiate or do they escalate some sort of a military?	他们是否谈判或升级 某种军事?
1721	We don't know the answer to that.	我们不知道答案
1722	We're going to find that answer over the course of the next couple of weeks.	我们将在接下来的几周里找到答案。
1723	But our view, perhaps somewhat optimistically, is that this could be the closer to the end of this, and that as we're looking out to the balance of this year into next year,	但是,我们的观点,也许有些乐观, 是,这可能是 更接近这个结束, 而当我们正在展望 今年的平衡 到明年,
1724	we could see crude, which has gone from 105 to 85, maybe closer to that $70 number longer term as we look out over the next quarter or two.	我们可以看到粗糙的, 从105到85, 也许更接近这70美元 更长的时间,因为我们展望 在下一个季度或两个季度。
1725	That has positive implications for inflation as we roll into calendar 27.	在我们进入第27个日历时,这对通货膨胀具有积极影响。
1726	Yeah, we just reported that actually Saudi Arabia is hitting this new wartime high when it comes to output.	是的,我们刚刚报告说,实际上 沙特阿拉伯正进入这个新的战时高点 当涉及到产出。
1727	That's very good in terms of the inflation picture.	这在通货膨胀方面是非常好的。
1728	Do you think the inflation in services, though, is enough for the Fed to now be debating 50 basis points?	你认为服务业的通货膨胀 足以让美联储 讨论50个基础点吗?
1729	We don't think so.	我们不这么认为。
1730	If it was our position, we probably would have hiked in October, quarter point, hiked a quarter point here, skipped January, hiked again in March, perhaps.	如果这是我们的立场,我们很可能在10月、四分之一点、四分之一点、1月份、3月份再次攀登。
1731	But hiking 50 here might be a little premature.	但在这里徒步50也许有点早
1732	Maybe it's sort of jumping the gun.	也许是在跳枪
1733	Let's do 25, and again, take a deep breath, and let's see how this data plays out over the course of the next month or two and determine whether or not January is on the table.	让我们再做25次,再深呼吸,看看这个数据在接下来的一两个月里是如何运行的,并确定1月是否在桌面上.
1734	If things are hotter, then we'd like to see them.	如果情况比较热,那么我们想看看.
1735	What matters more to you right now, whether the Fed hikes 50 or 25 basis points or whether the anthropic IPO comes in at a higher valuation or a lower valuation than expected?	美联储是50还是25个基点 还是人类IPO的估值比预期的要高还是更低?
1736	I haven't been spending a lot of time on the anthropic situation, spending more time on the Fed.	我还没有花很多时间去解决人类问题, 在美联储上花更多的时间。
1737	Obviously, that is creating some potentially deleterious implications throughout the economy, the housing market certainly.	显然,这在整个经济,即住房市场造成了一些潜在的有害影响。
1738	If the Fed were to hike 50 here and then hike again in January and then hike again in March, mortgage rates 100 basis points higher than we are here with the housing market index already sitting at a 14-year low,	如果美联储要在这里爬50,然后在1月份再次爬,然后在3月份再次爬, 抵押贷款利率比我们这里高100个基点 住房市场指数已经低了14年,
1739	that probably doesn't elevate animal spirits in the housing market.	这也许不会提升 动物精神在住房市场。
1740	But the economy is not the stock market.	但经济不是股市.
1741	The stock market is not the economy.	股票市场不是经济。
1742	The stock market and the economy, though, both seem to be pretty leveraged to the AI trade.	但股票市场和经济似乎都相当有利于AI贸易。
1743	The AI trade has come under a lot more scrutiny in the past couple of months, really.	人工智能贸易在过去几个月里受到更多的监督,真的。
1744	Credit concerns about what financing costs would look like, questions about new regulation under a Democratic sweep of the House and the Senate,	信贷担心融资成本会是什么样子 在民主党对众议院和参议院的扫荡下 新条例的问题
1745	and now questions about the leadership at the world's biggest chipmaker, Jensen Huang, over at Nvidia.	现在质疑的是 世界上最大的芯片制造商 黄詹森 在恩维迪亚的领导地位
1746	How much are you trying to just go into the rest of the economy and avoid the turmoil versus say this is a trade that people are not going to kill?	你想进入经济的其余部分 避免动荡 而不是说这是人们不会杀的交易?
1747	And ultimately it is one that you have to be invested in.	归根结底,你必须投入其中。
1748	All good points.	所有优点。
1749	Go back to the GDP report we saw a week or so ago.	回到一周前的GDP报告。
1750	3.4% growth in the third quarter, which was terrific, but the core private domestic final sales component was up 4.9%.	第三季度增长3.4%,令人惊叹,但国内私人最终核心销售部分上升了4.9%。
1751	All right, that's a five-year high.	好吧,这是五年高。
1752	And that was largely a function of the fact that the consumer's been very strong and corporate CapEx has been very strong, led by the AI situation.	这在很大程度上是消费者非常强壮和公司CapEx非常强势的功能,由AI的情况所引导.
1753	So there was a lot of rhetoric with the election, a lot of pushback on the pace of expansion with AI.	因此对选举的言辞颇多,对AI的扩张速度也有许多回击.
1754	We'd like to separate the rhetoric from the reality that it was very easy for politicians to say I'm against AI.	我们想把这些言辞与现实区分开来,即政治家们说反对AI是非常容易的.
1755	But now that they're elected and they've got to govern, the reality is that, OK, we're getting a lot of tax revenues from AI.	但是现在他们当选了,他们必须执政, 现实是,好吧,我们从AI那里得到了很多税收。
1756	We're generating a lot of jobs.	我们正在创造很多工作
1757	Economic growth has been very strong because of corporate CapEx.	由于公司CapEx,经济增长非常强劲.
1758	Maybe there's some middle ground where we can put some guardrails on.	也许有些中间地带 我们可以放些护栏
1759	Maybe we can slow the pace of AI expansion.	也许我们可以放慢AI扩展的速度.
1760	But, you know, killing the goose that's laying the golden egg and eliminating AI is probably not in the cards.	但是,你知道,杀死鹅 下金蛋和消灭AI可能不在牌上。
1761	We were talking with Tom Becker of BlackRock yesterday and he said he had brought risk down to the lowest level it's been in the past couple of years.	我们昨天和布莱克洛克的汤姆·贝克尔谈过 他说他把风险降到了过去几年来的最低水平
1762	Just to wrap up, is that what you're seeing too?	最后,你看到的也是这个吗?
1763	Is that kind of your mood right now when it comes to your investment strategy?	你的投资策略是这种心情吗?
1764	Are you seeing a good time to go into names that have gotten discounted?	你是否看到一个好时机 进入名字 得到了折扣?
1765	So the answer is yes.	故答为是.
1766	We were going into this environment expecting that there would be increased volatility as a result of Federal Reserve uncertainty and the midterm elections.	我们正走进这种环境,期望由于美联储的不确定性和中期选举,不稳定性会增加。
1767	We were positioned defensively going into that.	我们处于防御状态 进入。
1768	We're seeing a nice pullback here.	我们看到一个不错的后退在这里。
1769	We think that the longer term picture looking out over the next year or two is still extraordinarily bright.	我们认为,未来一两年的长远前景仍然非常明亮。
1770	So I expect that at a certain level we may throw a few more chips on the table based upon what the magnitude of this correction may look like.	因此,我期望,在某种程度上,我们可以根据这个修正的大小,在桌上再投几个筹码。
1771	Pun intended.	冲动
1772	Phil Orlando, thank you so much for being with us this morning.	菲尔·奥兰多 非常感谢你今早和我们在一起
1773	Phil Orlando of Federated Hermes.	赫尔墨斯联邦的菲尔·奥兰多.
1774	Right now let's get you an update on stories elsewhere.	现在让我们给你介绍别处的故事
1775	Here is your Boomer Brief with Isabelle Lee.	这是你和伊莎贝尔·李的《Boomer简报》
1776	Hi, Isabelle.	嗨,伊莎贝尔。
1777	Hi, Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
1778	Saudi Arabia telling OPEC that its crude oil production climbed by 26% last month to the highest level since before the Iran War broke out.	沙特阿拉伯告诉欧佩克,其原油产量上个月上升了26%,达到伊朗战争爆发前的最高水平。
1779	The Kingdom saying it boosted output to 10.6 million barrels a day in October.	沙特王国说,10月份的产量增加到每天1 060万桶。
1780	June Kim will conduct a thorough and independent investigation.	六月金将进行彻底独立的调查.
1781	而Anthropix Bankers 重磅IPO高价.
1782	The Financial Times reporting it's targeting a higher price following heavy investor demand.	"金融时报"报道说,它针对的是投资者大量需求之后的更高价格.
1783	The cloud maker is expected to make its market debut next week.	制云器预计下周上市.
1784	Lisa, those are your Bloomberg Briefs.	丽莎,这些是你的彭博简介。
1785	Thank you so much, Isabelle.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔。
1786	Up next we have The Morning Calls plus Day Goldberg of Seaport on the Greek tragedy playing out in Nvidia.	接下来我们有"晨间电话" 和"海港日日日日日日日日日日日日日日日日日日夜夜夜夜夜夜" 在恩维迪亚的希腊悲剧中演出
1787	Is it a Greek tragedy?	是希腊悲剧吗?
1788	Is it something else?	是别的东西吗?
1789	The inquiries will continue.	将继续进行调查。
1790	The details will keep emerging.	细节将不断出现。
1791	That all is next.	这都是下一个。
1792	This is Bloomberg Surveillance.	这是布隆伯格监视。
1793	We've constructed this basket that, you know, wants to own chips, wants to own Mag-7, wants to own software because we believe that the theme broadly has much further to run.	我们建造了这个篮子, 你知道,它想要拥有芯片, 想要拥有Mag-7, 想要拥有软件, 因为我们相信这个主题有 更多的运行。
1794	This theme is bigger than any key man or key woman risk.	这个主题比任何关键男子或关键妇女的风险都大。
1795	那是Evercore的Julian Emanuel 说的,当然,Nvidia, 关键人物是Jensen Wong。
1796	Also a question of the key man risk right now for Anthropix and Dario Amadei.	还有安特罗皮克斯和达里奥·阿玛迪的 关键人物的风险
1797	But more importantly, the IPO as it gets shopped around Main Street and Wall Street right now getting a headline.	更重要的是 IPO在主街和华尔街附近购物时 现在有了头条
1798	据说Anthropix巨型IPO多次被过度订阅.
1799	This coming from Bloomberg after the Financial Times reported that bankers were looking to upsize from the high end of the previous pricing range beyond 78 dollars.	这出自彭博在"金融时报"报道后的报道,银行家们正想从上一个定价幅度的高端提升到78美元以上.
1800	So the pricing range right now is 70 to 78 and bankers telling the Financial Times that actually we're going to think it's going to be more than that.	所以现在的定价范围是70到78,银行家们告诉金融时报,实际上我们将认为它会不止于此.
1801	That would be about a 1.5 trillion valuation.	这大概是1.5万亿美元的价值。
1802	Potentially they get in that spot of 1.5 to 2 trillion, which really was what we were expecting months ago.	他们可能进入了1.5到2万亿的地段, 而这正是我们几个月前所期望的。
1803	We had a lot of drip feed reporting that a lot of investors were saying, actually, this might be closer to 1.2, 1.4.	我们有大量的滴灌报告, 很多投资者说, 实际上,这可能会接近1.2,1.4。
1804	What happened to all this money?	这些钱怎么了?
1805	Well, actually, it's oversubscribed.	实际上,它被过度订阅。
1806	So maybe they're going to get close to that valuation.	所以也许他们会接近那个估价。
1807	Definitely a more optimistic tone right now.	肯定是一个更乐观的语气 现在。
1808	And Mark is seeing futures positive led by big tech.	马克看到未来由大科技带动
1809	You are seeing the semiconductors really claw back a lot of the losses from the post-election period, seeing Nasdaq futures up 1.9 percent.	你可以看到半导体 真正抓住了很多 从选举后时期的损失, 看见纳斯达克期货上升1.9%。
1810	But a nine tenths of a percent gain for S&P and Russell 2000.	但S&P和Russell 2000的增益只有十分之九
1811	The week ahead, massive.	接下来的一周, 巨大的。
1812	To highlight, event risk is sort of to understate everything.	突出的是,事件风险 有点低估了一切。
1813	What we get with PPI on Thursday, tomorrow.	周四,明天,PPI会怎么样?
1814	Also, we get a 30-year bond auction.	此外,我们得到 一个30年债券拍卖。
1815	I know you're going to roll your eyes, but they've all been tailing recently and more interesting given the potential for an outsized rate hike.	我知道你会滚开你的眼睛, 但他们都一直跟踪 最近和更加有趣, 因为潜在的 超速升速。
1816	We'll get more Fed speak.	我们会得到更多的FED谈话。
1817	And, of course, we'll get Nvidia earnings next week, not to mention the pricing of this anthropic IPO.	当然,下周我们会得到Nvidia的收入, 更不用提这个人类IPO的定价。
1818	All of that coming up, and I'm sure a whole lot more that we aren't even thinking about.	所有这一切,我敢肯定,更多的 我们甚至没有想到。
1819	You know, an economist sent me a note this morning saying I have to have to deal with a midterm sweep.	一名经济学家今早给我发了条纸条 说我必须处理中期扫描
1820	A.I. (英语).
1821	getting whacked.	被击毙。
1822	Then before, that was all before, espionage increased the risk of export controls.	在此之前,即以前,间谍活动增加了出口管制的风险。
1823	Fed the floating 50 basis point hike for December.	12月的50个基点浮标
1824	NFP printing $29K and then $165K.	NFP印刷了29K,之后又印刷了165K.
1825	And then, Lisa, all while they're having to sit there and write their annual outlook.	然后,丽莎,所有的时间 他们不得不坐在那里,写 他们的年度展望。
1826	How difficult?	有多难?
1827	You just have to basically wait till the very end of the year to decide potentially how are you thinking about 2027?	你只需要等到年底 才能决定你对2027年的想法
1828	Because as you've been saying, it's Wheel of Fortune.	因为如你所说,这是"财富之轮"
1829	It's whack-a-mole.	这太疯狂了
1830	This person says it's the macros, quote, we didn't start the fire.	这个人说,这是宏观,引用, 我们没有启动火。
1831	And everyone's thinking about all the words.	而一切众生思惟一切言语.
1832	Leonard Bernstein.	伦纳德·伯恩斯坦.
1833	Time now for the morning calls.	现在是早上打电话的时候了。
1834	First up, Citi raising its price target on CoreWeave, pointing to its improved pricing and contract economics.	首先,花旗公司在CoreWeave上提高价格目标,指出其定价和合同经济学有所改善。
1835	Those shares higher by more than 15 percent in pre-market trading.	这些份额在市场前交易中增加了15%以上。
1836	Next up, KBW downgrading Riot, citing a lack of IG credit support behind its anthropic data center lease.	接下来,KBW降级暴动, 引证缺乏IG信用支持 背后的人类数据中心租赁。
1837	Those shares still up 3.9 percent after the CoreWeave results.	这些份额在CoreWeave结果之后仍然上升了3.9%。
1838	And finally, Baird downgrading NVIDIA to neutral, highlighting risks from CEO uncertainty, to put it mildly.	最后,贝尔德将NVIDIA降级为中性,突出来自CEO不确定性的风险,温和地说.
1839	Sticking with NVIDIA, shares gaining a bit of momentum after wiping out all of its gains for the year.	持之以恒的NVIDIA,在冲刷了当年所有收益后,股权获得了一定的势头.
1840	Jay Goldberg of Seaport.	海港的杰伊·戈德伯格.
1841	The loan sell on the stocks still with a $180 price target.	贷款在股票上售出 仍然有180美元的价格目标。
1842	We're through that now at 175.	175岁的时候我们结束了
1843	Goldberg saying that NVIDIA is playing out like a Greek tragedy.	戈德伯格说NVIDIA像希腊悲剧一样出演.
1844	If Jensen goes, the bull case goes with him.	如果Jensen去,公牛案就跟着他
1845	试图设想NVIDIA 没有Jensen。
1846	Jay joins us now for more.	杰现在加入我们了
1847	Jay, great to see you.	杰伊,很高兴见到你。
1848	We spoke with you last week.	我们上周跟你谈过了
1849	You said that you were thinking of upgrading your rating on NVIDIA.	你说你想提升对NVIDIA的评级
1850	Was that torpedoed by what we got over the weekend with the revelation of this extramarital affair?	被我们周末发现的婚外情 所淹没了吗?
1851	Yes, yes.	对,对。
1852	To put it simply, yes.	简单地说,是的。
1853	I think the risk of Jensen being removed from his role is significant.	我认为Jensen被从他的角色中除名的风险很大。
1854	He is the heart and soul of that company.	他是那个公司的心脏和灵魂。
1855	He has 70 direct reports.	他有70个直接报告
1856	Everything runs through him.	一切贯穿于他.
1857	Without him, it's not quite clear what they are.	没有他,还不清楚他们是什么
1858	And it's hard to think of anyone who could replace him.	很难想象有人能代替他
1859	I've maintained all along that he's one of the best semiconductor CEOs ever.	我一直认为他是最好的半导体首席执行官之一
1860	He deserves a lot of credit for that.	他为此值得高度评价。
1861	And removing him now gives us a very, very different company at NVIDIA.	现在把他搬走 在NVIDIA有个非常不同的公司
1862	And so I think that's a big risk.	所以我认为这是一个很大的风险。
1863	At the same time, Jay, there are a lot of incredible engineers there,	与此同时,杰伊,那里有很多不可思议的工程师,
1864	and there's been some speculation that NVIDIA could follow an Apple type of approach	有人猜测NVIDIA会遵循苹果型方法
1865	where once Steve Jobs was no longer there,	曾经的史蒂夫・乔布斯 不再在那里,
1866	they had an excellent executor like Tim Cook who could come in	他们有一个出色的执行者 像蒂姆·库克,可以进来
1867	and really steer the ship forward with the blueprint initially laid out.	并真正引导舰只前进 最初提出的蓝图。
1868	Why is this different than that?	为什么这不一样呢?
1869	At Apple, there was a transition period.	在苹果公司,有一个过渡期.
1870	We knew long before Steve Jobs left who the next CEO would be.	在史蒂夫·乔布斯离开之前 我们早就知道下一个CEO是谁了
1871	It's clear that they had succession planning in place for Tim Cook for a long time.	很明显,他们早已为蒂姆·库克制定了继任计划.
1872	There was a planned out process, an orderly process.	已经计划了一个过程,一个有序的过程。
1873	At NVIDIA, I sort of challenge people to name an executive there	在NVIDIA,我有点挑战 人们命名一个行政官员在那里
1874	other than Jensen or their CEO.	除了詹森或他们的CEO
1875	Beyond that, people don't really know the other executives at the company.	除此之外,人们并不真正了解公司的其他高管.
1876	And that's been a deliberate strategy at NVIDIA all along	这是NVIDIA精心策划的策略
1877	is to make Jensen very much the picture of the image of the company.	让詹森更像公司形象
1878	All public events are, you know, he's the one speaking.	所有公共活动都是,你知道, 他是一个说话。
1879	We just don't know that much about the other executives.	我们只是不太了解其他高管
1880	And so who would replace him?	那么谁来代替他?
1881	It's completely unclear.	这完全不清楚。
1882	Jay, is that a failure of the company,	杰伊,这是公司的失败,
1883	the fact that they haven't actually started building out for succession?	他们还没有开始建立 继承?
1884	We don't know a lot.	我们不知道很多。
1885	And I don't want to, you know, again, pile on with moral judgments from him.	我不想,你知道, 再次,堆积 与道德判断 从他。
1886	That's not my place.	这不是我的地方。
1887	But certainly, this is a political, this is all political,	但是,当然,这是一个政治, 这是所有的政治,
1888	like U.S. politics, political, capital P, political.	如美国政治,政治,首都P,政治.
1889	This looks a lot like an organized, orchestrated political takeout.	这看起来像一个有组织的,精心策划的政治外卖。
1890	He has been very vocal and very active in political circles last few years	他多年来在政治圈里非常活跃和活跃
1891	that attracts a certain amount of rivalry in D.C.	这在华盛顿吸引了一定的竞争
1892	And it really feels like the knives are out for him from the political circles.	感觉就像政治界的刀子在他身上
1893	What he would be normally doing anyway, right?	他通常会做什么,对吧?
1894	Of course, he wants to loosen restrictions on sales to China.	当然,他想放宽对中国的销售限制.
1895	He's in the business of selling chips.	他在卖薯片
1896	He makes good arguments about that that I think he would have made	他提出好的论点 我认为他应该
1897	regardless of what he was doing on his private life.	不管他在私生活上做了什么
1898	And in terms of Megaspeed being a big customer,	和关于兆速作为一个大客户,
1899	I think that's the real question is what's really going on with Megaspeed?	我想这就是真正的问题 巨速到底是怎么回事?
1900	And I think that's part of the problem is it's all very murky.	我想这是问题的一部分, 这些都是非常模糊的。
1901	The export rules in this context are very, very gray.	这方面的出口规则非常、非常灰色。
1902	And it's a pretty fine line.	这条线也不错
1903	But so far, there's no actual allegation that Megaspeed itself	但目前为止,没有实际指控 巨速本身
1904	has broken any laws.	已经违反了任何法律。
1905	Just putting aside the politics for a second and even the future of Jensen Huang	只管把政治放在一边, 哪怕是黄詹森的未来
1906	to the point you were just making, it's not just Megaspeed.	以至于你刚刚做的, 它不只是兆速。
1907	It's also all of the potential shell companies or just companies	也是所有潜在的空壳公司或只是公司
1908	that are funneling Nvidia chips to China.	将Nvidia芯片输往中国
1909	Do we have a sense of what proportion of Nvidia's sales	我们知不知道Nvidia的销售比例
1910	could have been tied to that type of activity?	可能与这种活动有关吗?
1911	We don't.	我们没有。
1912	They reclassified how they determine geographic segments	他们重新划分他们如何决定地域
1913	two or three quarters ago and shifted.	2到3/4年前 转了身
1914	So far, most of it is all of it's been legitimate.	目前为止,大部分都是合法的.
1915	The problem for them is that it is so murky	对他们来说问题在于它是如此的模糊
1916	that people are very focused on this.	人们非常关注这个问题。
1917	And that's really the heart of the questions of what's going on.	这才是问题的核心所在
1918	If Jensen Huang is forced to step down	如果黄詹森被迫下台
1919	and there is further questions about Nvidia's ongoing leadership,	还有关于Nvidia继续领导的问题
1920	not to mention just where the sales are all coming from	更别提销售是从哪里来的
1921	and there are some congressional inquiries that continue,	有些国会调查仍在继续,
1922	what is the impact on the broader chip sector,	对更广泛的芯片部门有何影响?
1923	the broader AI trade at large?	广大的人工智能贸易?
1924	I think fairly minimal, right?	我觉得还很小,对吧?
1925	They're going to report next week	他们下周会报到的
1926	and I think they're going to report pretty good numbers.	我想他们会报告很多数字
1927	I don't know that anyone's going to care about them.	我不知道谁会关心他们
1928	But the AI trade is real.	但人工智能贸易是真实的。
1929	I think there's still demand for AI chips.	我觉得还是需要人工智能芯片
1930	It's just, I think, regardless of what happens with Jensen,	我觉得不管Jensen怎么了
1931	Nvidia is somewhat hobbled just for the time being.	恩维迪亚暂时有点乱
1932	If for nothing else, they're going to be spending a lot of time	如果没别的,他们会花很多时间
1933	with lawyers that they can't spend on their business.	与律师 他们不能花 在他们的生意。
1934	And that is going to be a good opportunity	那将是一个很好的机会
1935	为AMD和Broadcom等公司取股.
1936	Jay Goldberg of Seaport, thank you so much for being with us.	海港的Jay Goldberg 非常感谢你和我们在一起
1937	As we follow, as you could have put it,	当我们跟着, 正如你本可以说,
1938	Nvidia和Jensen Huang领导着希腊的悲剧
1939	He was possibly going to upgrade his sell,	他可能打算升级他的销售,
1940	the loan sell rating on Nvidia to neutral	Nvidia 的贷款售价为中值
1941	and yet then we got the news over the weekend.	然后我们得到了新闻 在周末。
1942	Yeah, Jay last week was on with us	是啊,杰伊上周和我们在一起
1943	and said, I'm really going to take this weekend	并说,我真的要 这个周末
1944	and look at all of it.	并观察一切.
1945	I do wonder if he had actually written	我不知道他有没有写过
1946	some sort of different note before this news came out	新闻传出前,有些不同音符
1947	very late Sunday afternoon,	周日下午很晚的时候
1948	but this just goes to the heart of the key man risk.	但这只是关键人物风险的核心
1949	And you heard it there from Jay,	你从杰那里听到的
1950	doesn't know anyone in the company	公司里不认识任何人
1951	that could step up to that plate.	那样会踩到板子上
1952	The way this structure was presented,	这种结构的呈现方式,
1953	he said, yes, it made them very aggressive	他说,是的,这让他们非常有攻击性
1954	and successful in some ways,	在某些方面是成功的,
1955	but now you're left with a situation like this	但现在你只剩下这样的情况了
1956	where the CEO is just swarmed with all of this controversy	首席执行官只是带着这些争议
1957	and issues and potentially who could step up and do it.	以及谁可以站出来做它。
1958	And to Jay's point,	至于杰伊的观点,
1959	a lot of people have their knives out	很多人的刀都拿出来了
1960	and this is going to be political with a lot of emotion	这会是政治性的 充满感情
1961	from people who have been his opponents for a long time.	从长期反对他的人那里
1962	People also looking at the Federal Reserve	人们也看美联储
1963	amid that drama, given the prospect	在剧情中,考虑到前景
1964	for an outsized rate hike next week.	下周涨价
1965	Coming up, Abby Yoder of JP Morgan Private Bank	来了,JP摩根私人银行的艾比・约德
1966	as hawkish data boosts market sensitivity	由于鹰式数据提升了市场敏感性
1967	to the bond market, which is closed today.	今天关闭的债券市场
1968	Plus, Isabelle Lee with your morning movers,	另外,伊莎贝尔·李和你的早间搬家
1969	neoclouds very much in focus post-core wave.	新云在焦点后核波中很多。
1970	This is Bloomberg.	这是彭博社
1971	Seeing a bit of a rally this morning,	看到今天早上的集会,
1972	up almost 2% in the tech-heavy NASDAQ futures right now	现在科技重的纳斯达克期货 增长了近2%
1973	in the S&P 500, seeing a nine-tenths of a percent gain,	在S&P500中,看到百分之九的增益,
1974	getting to session highs throughout the morning.	整个上午都到会场
1975	The bond market is closed,	债券市场关闭了
1976	but you are seeing at least in futures contracts	但你至少看到期货合约
1977	a bit into bonds and you are seeing ongoing questions	有点牵扯到债券,你正在看到不断的问题
1978	about what you get with an outsized move	关于你用超大动作得到什么
1979	in the Fed policy rate come next month.	下个月,美联储的利率会上升
1980	Right now, if you take a look at the Eurodollar,	现在 如果你看看欧元
1981	which is trading,	这是交易,
1982	you are seeing a stronger dollar on the heels	你看见一个更坚固的美元在后面
1983	of a stronger-than-expected CPI report,	消费物价指数报告,
1984	111 right now on the euro versus the dollar,	现在111欧元对美元,
1985	the year of the weakest,	至於最弱者,
1986	going back to the end of October right now	现在回到10月底
1987	as people assess exactly how strong the U.S. economy is	当人们评估美国经济是多么强大
1988	and a real focus on the tech trade right now.	并真正关注技术贸易 现在。
1989	Nvidia有点反弹了
1990	目前关于Anthropic大型IPO的讨论
1991	with the latest headline saying	带有最新标题
1992	that it is multiple times oversubscribed	它被多次超过订阅
1993	as bankers try to increase	当银行家试图增加
1994	the top end of the pricing range.	价格范围的顶端。
1995	And that's what we heard overnight as well	这也是我们一夜之间听到的
1996	from the FT that bankers are indicating	从FT,银行家表示
1997	that they expect it to be higher than the 70 to 78 range,	他们希望它比70到78个射程还要高
1998	对于Anthropic来说意味着他们
1999	in that $1.5 trillion market valuation,	在1.5万亿美元的市场估值中,
2000	potentially even higher.	可能会更高
2001	So as you mentioned,	所以,正如你提到的,
2002	it feels like it's a lot more optimism now	感觉现在更乐观了
2003	moving into this IPO than we potentially were	搬进这个IPO 比我们潜在的
2004	with Anthropic a few weeks ago.	几周前跟安特罗皮克在一起
2005	Yeah, we've got a lot of days ahead of that.	是啊,我们还有很多日子要过
2006	So, you know, one day can be a lifetime right now,	所以,你知道,有朝一日 可以是一生现在,
2007	one hour away from the cash open.	离现金开口一小时
2008	Let's get to Morning Movers with Isabelle Lee.	和伊莎贝尔·李一起上"早晨搬家"节目
2009	Hey, Isabelle.	嘿,伊莎贝尔。
2010	Hi, Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
2011	今早NVIDIA反弹,
2012	but don't mistake that for an all clear	但不要误会这一点
2013	because the stock is recovering	因为股票正在恢复
2014	after a 10% sell-off this week	这周卖了10%
2015	that wiped out nearly $40 billion in market value.	价值近400亿美元。
2016	The headwinds are still there.	头风犹在.
2017	Investors are questioning the future	投资者质疑未来
2018	of the company under Jens and Huang.	简斯和黄先生手下的公司
2019	They're also weighing the risk	他们也在权衡风险
2020	of potential tighter export restrictions	可能更严格的出口限制
2021	and also just political scrutiny overall.	以及整个政治监督
2022	Baird analysts downgraded the stock	贝尔德分析师将库存降级
2023	to underperform, citing potential government action	政府可能采取的行动
2024	when it comes to a potential congressional hearing.	当它涉及到 一个潜在的国会听证会。
2025	So really weighing on the company,	所以,真的重在公司,
2026	but for now you're seeing green on your screen.	但现在你在屏幕上看到绿色
2027	Another part of the AI ecosystem	AI生态系统的另一部分
2028	that's also cheering some good news,	这也是欢呼一些好消息,
2029	这是AI的基础设施 或者NeoClouds。
2030	And that's in large thanks to CoreWeave.	这在很大程度上要归功于CoreWeave。
2031	You see the stock there higher	你看那边的股票高点
2032	by more than 15% in pre-market trade.	在市场前贸易中增加15%以上。
2033	So CoreWeave raised the revenue forecast for the full year,	CoreWeave提高了全年的收入预测
2034	and that really caused a huge sigh of relief from analysts.	这真的让分析家感到很轻松
2035	Lisa, who were really jittery all of last week	莉萨,她上周真的很紧张
2036	when they saw this massive sell-off,	当他们看到这个大规模出售,
2037	the blue sweep didn't help	蓝色的扫荡没有帮助
2038	because we heard a lot of anti-data sentiment.	因为我们听到很多反数据情绪。
2039	But for now, CoreWeave said	但现在,科雷韦夫说
2040	that they're still signing new customers.	他们还在签新客户
2041	They'll start expanding infrastructure,	他们会开始扩大基础设施,
2042	but make no mistake as well	也不要犯错
2043	that there are still concerns	仍有人担心
2044	when it comes to their heavy debt load	当他们承受沉重的债务的时候,
2045	and also their aggressive spending.	和他们的侵略性开支。
2046	And finally, let's end it with Microsoft.	最后,让我们用微软结束。
2047	The stock is up by three-tenths of one percent.	股票增长了十分之三的1%。
2048	It pared back some of those gains,	它使一些收益回落,
2049	那是在Anthropic推出一套AI工具之后
2050	that really is designed to deepen everyday work,	这真的是为了深化日常工作,
2051	think data dashboards, spreadsheets,	思考数据仪表板,电子表格,
2052	and video conferences.	和电视会议。
2053	So you see the stock there just a little higher	你看见那边的股票再高一点
2054	by three-tenths of one percent, Lisa.	以百分之一的十分之三 丽莎
2055	Thank you so much, Isabelle.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔。
2056	Let's turn back to the Fed, Hawkesh Symphony.	让我们回到美联储,霍克什交响曲。
2057	CPI data suggests that inflation pressures	消费物价指数数据表明通货膨胀压力
2058	may persist for longer.	可能会持续更长的时间。
2059	It remains clear to me, given the current outlook,	鉴于目前的前景,我仍然很清楚,
2060	FOMC需要执行
2061	at least two more 25 basis point rate increases.	至少再增加两个25个基点。
2062	I believe a 50 basis point hike	我相信一个50个基点的提升
2063	in the policy rate should be considered	政策比率中应考虑
2064	at the December meeting.	在12月的会议上。
2065	Hiking only 25 basis points	仅飞行25个基点
2066	would put our credibility at risk,	这会危及我们的信誉
2067	and it's a risk I'm not eager to take.	我并不想冒这个险
2068	Hotter-than-expected CPI boosting rate hike bets	比预期的消费物价指数高涨率下注
2069	to two-year yields,	至两年的产量,
2070	seeing its biggest jump since April of 2025 yesterday.	看到了2025年4月以来最大的跳跃
2071	Bloomberg's Michael McKee joins us now for more.	彭博会的迈克尔·麦基现在加入我们了
2072	Hey, Mike.	嘿,迈克。
2073	Good morning, Lisa.	早上好,丽莎。
2074	Well, it is as if somebody put out a CPI report	好像有人公布了消费物价指数报告
2075	that was really, really bad	这真的,真的很糟糕
2076	the way Fed officials are talking,	联邦官员说话的方式,
2077	and all those three people were voters yesterday.	昨天这三人都是选民
2078	But this is not just the CPI.	但这不仅仅是消费物价指数。
2079	This is what the Fed officials are hearing	这是联邦官员听到的
2080	from around the country.	从全国各地。
2081	Just take a look at the last ISM reports	看看上次的ISM报告
2082	for manufacturing and for services.	用于制造和服务。
2083	Manufacturing representatives saying negative.	制造业代表表示否定.
2084	Inflation in the red.	通货膨胀在红色。
2085	Inflationary pressures continue	通货膨胀压力继续存在
2086	to create challenging scenarios.	创造具有挑战性的情景。
2087	Any commodity consumed by AI data centers	AI数据中心消费的任何商品
2088	is in a crunch, both for supply and pricing.	无论是供应还是定价都陷入困境。
2089	On the service side,	在服务方面,
2090	which really worries the Fed folks,	这令联邦探员非常担心
2091	we're seeing much the same.	我们看到的都一样
2092	Operations continue to be impacted	业务继续受到影响
2093	by elevated costs for goods and services.	由于货物和服务成本上升。
2094	Fuel prices impacting many of our consumables	燃料价格影响到我们的许多消耗品
2095	and delivered goods, impacts of tariffs,	和交付的货物, 关税的影响,
2096	increased fuel prices, and longer lead times	燃料价格上涨,周转时间延长
2097	make business more challenging.	使企业更具挑战性。
2098	So there is a lot for the Fed to keep an eye on here	美联储有很多事情要注意
2099	besides the backward-looking data.	除了反向的数据。
2100	It looks like the industry in America	看起来像美国工业
2101	is telling them going forward	是告诉他们前进
2102	it's not going to be any better.	这不会更好。
2103	Speaking of going forward, we get PPI tomorrow.	说到前进,我们明天得到PPI。
2104	You saw what we got in the CPI yesterday.	你看见我们昨天的CPI了
2105	The PPI headline is expected to fall back a little bit,	预计PPI头条会回落一点
2106	but on a year-over-year basis rise.	但逐年增加。
2107	And if that happens, it's likely that we're going to get	如果那样的话 我们很可能会得到
2108	a strong PCE for the month,	一个强大的PCE月,
2109	which comes out on November 25th	11月25日发布的
2110	before the next Fed meeting.	在下一次联邦会议之前
2111	So that kind of leaves us with one more Fed voter,	这样我们就能多选一个联邦选民了
2112	Anna Paulson, who also spoke yesterday	安娜·保尔森,他昨天也说过话
2113	and is among the most dovish of the Fed officials.	并且是美联储官员中最受欢迎的
2114	And she says, well, for now,	她说 现在
2115	further gradual tightening seems appropriate.	进一步逐步收紧似乎是适当的。
2116	So it looks like everybody's on board with a rate increase.	所以看起来每个人都在船上加价
2117	The question is, how much?	问题是,多少钱?
2118	Yeah, Michael McKee, thank you so much.	是的,迈克尔・麦基,非常感谢你。
2119	We'll be watching all of the Fed speak as it drips out.	我们会看着所有美联储的演讲,当它滴出。
2120	I remember we were going to not get any forward guidance,	我记得我们不会得到任何前进方向,
2121	but, you know, I guess here we are.	但是,你知道,我想我们在这里。
2122	Abby Yoder of JPMorgan Private Bank writing,	JPMorgan私人银行的艾比・约德
2123	markets will be pretty sensitive to any additional hawkish data,	市场会非常敏感 任何额外的鹰式数据,
2124	particularly as it relates to inflation.	特别是因为它与通货膨胀有关。
2125	It needs to grapple with the possibility of an increase	它需要解决增加的可能性
2126	in the pace of Fed tightening.	在美联储收紧的速度。
2127	Abby joins us now for more.	艾比现在加入我们了
2128	Great to see you.	很高兴见到你。
2129	So do you think that a prospect of a 50 basis point hike	所以你觉得50个基点上升的前景吗?
2130	is something people should be taking a bit more seriously?	难道人们应该更认真点吗?
2131	I mean, look, there's no debating it.	我的意思是,你看,没有辩论。
2132	Yesterday, across the board, there was nothing	昨天,从头到尾,什么都没有
2133	in the inflation print that suggested	通货膨胀指数
2134	that inflation was slowing down, right?	通货膨胀在减速,对不对?
2135	The one thing that we need to see	我们需要看到的一件事
2136	and that we've seen over the past couple of weeks	我们在过去的几个星期里看到的
2137	or week, really, is this decline in commodity prices, right?	还是一周,真的, 这是商品价格的下降,对不对?
2138	Because that's what we're starting to see.	因为这是我们开始看到的。
2139	You're starting to see that real effect	你开始看到真正的效果
2140	of, say, diesel prices in particular	特别是柴油价格
2141	flowing through to grocery prices,	流入杂货价格,
2142	and that's the risk.	这就是风险。
2143	That's the risk we've all been talking about	这就是我们一直在谈论的风险
2144	for this entire duration of this conflict	在这场冲突的整个期间
2145	is the longer this goes on,	时间越长
2146	the more it seeps into other areas within inflation	它越渗入通货膨胀的其他领域
2147	that become more concerning.	更让人担心
2148	Now, on the stickier side of inflation,	现在,在通货膨胀这一侧,
2149	the wage and shelter side,	工资和住房方面,
2150	I would say it was less concerning,	我想说这不太重要
2151	but again, we need to see what happens	但还是得看看会发生什么事
2152	from over the next two months,	从接下来的两个月,
2153	but it does seem like, obviously,	但看起来很显然
2154	the 50 basis points are on the table.	50个基点列于表中。
2155	How bad was this timing given that everyone rushed	大家匆匆忙忙忙 时间有多糟
2156	into bonds over the past two weeks?	过去两周的债券?
2157	The safety haven was back.	安全港回来了
2158	The reverse relationship between stocks and bonds	股票与债券之间的反向关系
2159	had reasserted itself.	重新振作起来
2160	Yay, 60-40.	耶 60 -40号
2161	And then, kabam, yesterday.	然后,卡巴姆,昨天。
2162	I saw that headline.	我看到头条了
2163	The 60-40 is back, and it's just like,	60 -40又回来了,就像...
2164	oh, god, that's really bad timing.	哦,上帝,这是非常糟糕的时机。
2165	But it is.	但它确实是。
2166	I don't think the narrative has changed	我觉得故事没有改变
2167	around portfolio construction where the 60-40	投资组合建设,其中60-40
2168	just doesn't really work anymore.	只是没有真正工作了。
2169	Like, we're in.	喜欢,我们英寸
2170	Our view is, over the next several years, right,	我们的看法是,在未来的几年里,
2171	with our longer-term outlook,	我们的长远前景,
2172	that inflation will be higher,	通货膨胀会更高,
2173	inflation volatility will be higher,	通货膨胀波动会更高
2174	and therefore rate volatility will be higher,	因此,利率波动会更高,
2175	and therefore you can't just have this simple	所以你不能就这么简单
2176	60-40 portfolio that has worked for you since the 1980s	1980年代以来为您工作的60-40个组合
2177	and done really well, right?	做得很好,对吧?
2178	Like, we're just in a different regime,	像,我们只是在一个不同的政权,
2179	and I don't know that a week or two	我不知道,一两周
2180	we'll ever be able to say, like, okay,	我们永远可以说,像,好吧,
2181	We can call a win on that, you know.	我们可以打赢它,你知道的。
2182	So what's replacing it for you?	那有什么能取代你的吗?
2183	Well, I think in the conversations that we've been having with clients, it's like, okay,	我想在和客户的对话中
2184	what do we have that's like not correlated to everything that's going on or that's negatively	我们有什么感觉 与一切发生或消极的
2185	correlated to inflation or positively correlated, right?	与通货膨胀或正相关,对不对?
2186	So infrastructure, macro hedge funds, I think those types of things that create diversified	因此,基础设施,宏观对冲基金, 我认为这些类型的东西 创造了多样化
2187	sources of return or where we've really been focused with our clients in terms of getting	归宿来源 或我们真正专注于我们的客户
2188	that.	那个
2189	What are your clients worried about now?	你的客户现在担心什么?
2190	Because it felt like the midterm election was supposed to be this huge clearing event	因为觉得中期选举 应该是这个大事件
2191	and now it feels like everyone every day is dealing with fresh headwinds that are almost	现在感觉每个人每天都在面对 新的头风,几乎是
2192	very surprising.	非常令人惊讶。
2193	Like inflation came out very hot, but before that, Waller put 50 on the table, which made	就像通货膨胀非常高涨 但在此之前 沃勒把50块放在桌子上
2194	it that much more difficult for this financial market.	对这个金融市场来说 困难得多
2195	NVIDIA is supposed to be the linchpin this entire trade and now the future of what that	NVIDIA应该是整个贸易的关键 现在又是未来
2196	executive who leads that company is in question.	领导这家公司的主管受到质疑。
2197	Yeah, I mean, the timing of the Waller comment was, you know, crazy in terms of what happened	是啊,我的意思是,时间 华勒的评论是,你知道,疯狂的 发生了什么事
2198	yesterday.	昨日..
2199	And I think to answer your question lightly, like there are a lot of concerns and I think	我想简单回答你的问题 就像有很多问题一样
2200	that's being reflected in valuations in the equity market, right?	股市的估值反映了这一点 对吧?
2201	Like we've seen a four turn reduction in the valuation of the S&P 500 over the last year,	就像我们去年看到"S&P 500"的估值有四次下降一样
2202	right?	对吧?
2203	We went from 22 and a half times to now actually below 18 times.	我们从22次半到现在,实际上不到18次。
2204	So there are a lot of those risks that are reflected in what's going on from a valuation	因此,很多这些风险 反映于 如何从估值
2205	perspective, right?	视角,对不对?
2206	Whether it's geopolitics, whether it's domestic politics, whether or not the AI trade sees	无论是地缘政治还是国内政治 以及AI贸易是否认为
2207	the return on investment that everyone wants to see, like all of those things really are	投资回报,每个人都想看到, 像所有这些事情真的
2208	being reflected, I think, in valuation.	我认为,这是在估价中反映的。
2209	If you're interested in infrastructure, though, are your clients concerned about next year	如果你对基础设施感兴趣, 你的客户担心明年
2210	given the reaction from the midterm elections?	考虑到中期选举的反应?
2211	Well, that's infrastructure if you think of it as just data centers, right?	好吧,那是基础设施 如果你认为它只是数据中心,对不对?
2212	There's obviously more outside of that and I think it has been interesting that the narrative	很明显,还有更多之外 我认为有趣的是 叙事
2213	around what infrastructure is has changed quite a lot.	基础设施已经发生了很大变化。
2214	What is outside data centers?	数据中心外有什么?
2215	There's a lot.	甚处来.
2216	I mean, think about it.	我的意思是,考虑一下。
2217	We're not only embarking on what is like an AI build out, but a broader infrastructure	我们不仅在做一个像AI一样的建设, 而且还在进行一个更广泛的基础设施
2218	build out in the United States that's very much needed, whether that's the grid, whether	在美国建设,这是非常需要的, 不管这是电网,是否
2219	that's just traditional infrastructure that we've neglected for God knows how many decades.	那是我们忽视的传统基础设施 上帝知道多少年了
2220	So there is that element of what we're seeing from a reshoring perspective that is outside	因此,有这个元素 我们从一个恢复的角度看到 外面
2221	of AI.	来文日期: 1999年7月1日
2222	I mean, obviously AI is kind of taking over all of the headlines and very big numbers	我的意思是,显然AI有点 接管所有的头条和非常大的数字
2223	and so I do think that that's the focus, but there are other green shoots in other parts	所以,我认为这就是重点, 但还有其他绿色拍摄 在其他地方
2224	of the industrial complex as well.	工业综合体。
2225	And Mitch raised the question earlier, what would you do if you had to write your 2027	米奇早些时候提出了一个问题, 如果你不得不写你的2027年,你会怎么做?
2226	outlook right now?	现在的展望?
2227	Well, we did.	嗯,我们做到了。
2228	You already did, so congratulations and you'll only have to change it for 40 years.	你已经做了,所以恭喜你 只要改变它40年。
2229	I'm sure again.	我敢肯定,再说一遍。
2230	What did you then say?	你刚才说什么?
2231	What did you focus on as your linchpin given how many moving pieces?	有多少动的棋子,你把重点放在什么上?
2232	So for us, look, we're conservative on both the valuation and the earnings front is what	所以对我们来说,看,我们在估价和收入方面都很保守
2233	I would say.	我会说。
2234	And I think that's what makes us comfortable, right?	我想这就是让我们感到舒服的原因,对吧?
2235	Like tech is now trading at below a market multiple.	就像现在科技在市场上交易一样
2236	Do we think that's sustainable?	我们认为这可以吗?
2237	Right?	对吧?
2238	Like, do we think that they go like, is there scope for revisions higher in terms of the	比如,我们是否认为,它们会像,是否有余地作出更大的修改?
2239	multiple?	多重吗?
2240	I think is the big question.	我认为这是一个大问题。
2241	And the answer is kind of like a little bit, just a little bit, right?	而答案是有点像, 只是一点点,对不对?
2242	And that's a very different environment than the last three or four years when we were	和过去三四年的环境完全不同
2243	writing our outlook and it was like, what is the upside to earnings?	写我们的看法,就像, 收入有什么好处?
2244	Right?	对吧?
2245	And where do we think valuation like it was just it's a very, very different environment	我们觉得估价在哪里 就像它只是一个非常,非常不同的环境
2246	to your point on all of the uncertainties going into this.	就你所看到的这些不确定因素而言
2247	So we're conservative on the valuation front and we're conservative on the earnings front.	所以我们在估值方面比较保守,在收入方面比较保守.
2248	We're, you know, two percentage points below the street in terms of our consensus estimate	我们,你知道, 在街道下两个百分点 根据我们的共识估计
2249	or in terms of our estimates.	或从我们的估计。
2250	Right?	对吧?
2251	We're just expecting not just 14 percent earnings growth, which is really strong, but I think	我们只是期望 不仅有14%的收入增长, 这是真正的强劲, 但我认为
2252	the valuation that we're at today suggests unlike the last couple of years where you	我们今天的估价 表明你与过去的几年不同
2253	had to see, you know, billions of dollars in beats from a lot of the A.I.	不得不看到,你知道,数十亿美元 拍从很多人工智能。
2254	related companies,	相关公司,
2255	valuation is like suggesting that nobody really believes those numbers.	估价就像暗示 没有人真的相信这些数字。
2256	How much is it that and how much is it the cost of capital has gone up so much and will	资本成本上涨了多少 多少
2257	likely continue to increase?	有可能继续增加?
2258	That is part of, I think, the valuation contraction that we've seen as well.	我想这是我们所看到的估价收缩的一部分。
2259	And that also to your like a very good point is that the bifurcation of where capital goes,	对于你来说,一个很好的观点是, 资本流向的两边,
2260	right?	对吧?
2261	Like you're seeing obviously valuation contraction in semiconductors because it's like the accrual	就像你看到半导体的收缩 因为它就像累积
2262	of capital that went to semiconductors over the last three years is slowing.	在过去三年里进入半导体的资本正在放缓。
2263	Right?	对吧?
2264	So what happens with like seeing that valuation contraction in semis from 21 times to 12 times	所以,如果看到 估值收缩的半体 从21倍到12倍
2265	makes sense.	说得有道理
2266	Right?	对吧?
2267	Because they're going to see that slowing in growth.	因为他们会看到增长放缓。
2268	So I do think those are, valuation is reflecting that as well.	所以,我认为,估价也反映了这一点。
2269	So pessimism to have more optimism next year.	因此悲观的情绪在明年更加乐观.
2270	The bar is lower.	栏杆更低.
2271	Amy Yoder, great to see you.	艾米・约德,很高兴见到你。
2272	Thank you so much for being with us.	非常感谢你和我们在一起
2273	I'm Jamie Morgan at Private Bank.	我是私人银行的杰米・摩根
2274	Let's find out what's going on elsewhere.	寻知别处.
2275	Here is the Bloomberg Brief with Isabelle Lee.	这是布隆伯格简报 伊莎贝尔·李
2276	Hey, Isabelle.	嘿,伊莎贝尔。
2277	Hi, Lisa.	嗨,丽莎。
2278	Anthropix IPO is multiple times oversubscribed, sources telling Bloomberg the demand is driven	Anthropix IPO 多次过度订阅,来源告诉彭博社 需求驱动
2279	by so-called anchor size indications of interest.	以所谓的锚大小表示兴趣。
2280	The company is targeting a fully diluted valuation of about $1.4 trillion.	该公司的目标是对大约1.4万亿美元的估值进行完全稀释。
2281	According to the Financial Times, bankers are looking to boost that number.	据"金融时报"报道,银行家们想增加这个数字.
2282	And OpenAI's quarterly revenue hitting $10 billion for the first time in three months	而OpenAI的季度收入在三个月内首次达到100亿美元
2283	ending in September.	9月结束。
2284	That's driven by strong demand for its latest AI software.	由对其最新AI软件的强烈需求所驱动.
2285	Sources telling us here at Bloomberg that the chat GPT makers' revenue increased nearly	彭博社的消息来源告诉我们 聊天GPT制作人的收入几乎增加了
2286	50% from the prior quarter.	上一季度的50%。
2287	And U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant is moving on to a military base over Iranian	美国财政部长斯科特·贝桑特正在伊朗上空的军事基地
2288	threat against his life.	威胁他的生命
2289	According to the New York Times, Besant is the latest Trump official to be moved to a	根据《纽约时报》的报道 贝桑特是最新的特朗普官员
2290	base or safer housing.	基础或更安全的住房。
2291	At least six other officials have been moved this year, including new White House Chief	今年至少有六位官员被调走 包括新任白宫长官
2292	(原始内容存档于2018-09-21). Staff Stephen Miller.
2293	That's your Bloomberg Brief.	这是你的彭博简介。
2294	Lisa.	丽莎
2295	Thank you so much, Isabel.	谢谢你,伊莎贝尔。
2296	Pretty shocking that they've moved to military bases as a result of Iranian threats.	相当令人震惊的是,由于伊朗的威胁,他们已经转移到军事基地.
2297	We also saw this in Trump 1 as well, and a lot of those individuals like Pompeo, Brian	我们也在特朗普一号看到过,还有庞培奥,布莱恩等很多人
2298	Huck kept their security detail into the Biden administration because it was a true threat	哈克把他们的安保人员交给拜登政府 因为这是真正的威胁
2299	from the Iranians.	从伊朗人。
2300	And now you're seeing that from the Treasury Secretary, according to these reports.	现在你从财政部长那里看到, 根据这些报告。
2301	Up next, we're going to set you up for the day ahead, plus David Rubenstein of the Carlisle	接下来,我们将安排你 为未来的一天, 加上大卫鲁本斯坦的卡莱尔
2302	Group looking ahead to Anthropix's blockbuster IPO, as well as C-suite oversight.	集团向前看Anthropix的挡板IPO,以及C套装监督.
2303	All of that coming up next.	接下来所有的事都会发生
2304	This is Bloomberg Surveillance.	这是布隆伯格监视。
2305	The risk of Jensen being removed from his role is significant.	詹森被解除其职务的风险很大。
2306	He is the heart and soul of that company.	他是那个公司的心脏和灵魂。
2307	Without him, it's not quite clear what they are, and it's hard to think of anyone who	没有他,他们是什么不太清楚 很难想到谁
2308	could replace him.	可以替换他。
2309	Removing him now gives us a very, very different company at Nvidia.	除掉他现在让我们在Nvidia有个非常不同的公司
2310	That was Jay Goldberg of Seaport reflecting on the chaos over at Nvidia after the revelation	这是海口的杰伊·戈德伯格 反思了恩维迪亚的混乱
2311	that Jensen Huang had an affair with a suspected Chinese spy.	黄詹森和一个中国间谍有染
2312	Those shares higher, though, pre-market after taking some bruising losses over the past	不过,这些股票在上市前, 已经承受了过去一些伤痛的损失。
2313	couple of trading sessions.	两次交易
2314	Right now, you are seeing gains pretty much across the board in the equity space, 1.9%	现在,你可以看到股权收益 几乎是全局的1.9%
2315	gain for NASDAQ 100.	纳斯达克100的增益。
2316	Oil prices are inflecting just a touch higher, still markedly lower than where they were	石油价格仅略高一点,仍明显低于当时水平。
2317	earlier in October.	10月早些时候
2318	And then when you take a look at the Euro dollar, because the bond market is closed,	然后当你看看欧元, 因为债券市场关闭,
2319	you are seeing dollar strength, euro weakness, 111.16 as people assess the risk of a faster	你正在看到美元坚挺,欧元疲软, 111.16 人们评估更快的风险
2320	than expected rate hiking cycle.	超过预期的徒步周期。
2321	Counting down to the opening bell, the trading diary for the week ahead, another round of	数到开钟 交易日记 接下来的一周 又一轮
2322	jobless claims.	失业申请。
2323	The U.S. Treasury is selling $25 billion of 30-year notes.	美国国库出售250亿美元30年纸币.
2324	We also get FedSpeak from John Williams of the New York Fed is the trick alive and well.	我们还从纽约联邦调查局的约翰·威廉姆斯那里得到费德塞克 是活生生的把戏
2325	Friday, we get the PPI data that we've been looking for.	周五,我们得到PPI数据 我们一直在寻找。
2326	Next week, all eyes on Nvidia earnings on Tuesday with, of course, the anthropic IPO	下周,所有目击Nvidia收入 星期二,当然,人类IPO
2327	likely to price.	可能会出价
2328	Let's stay there.	让我们呆在那里。
2329	The anthropic IPO roadshow underway.	人类IPO的路展正在进行。
2330	A source is telling us here at Bloomberg the offering is multiple times oversubscribed	有个消息告诉我们,在彭博, 祭品是多次多订阅的
2331	with public trading expected to begin next week.	下周将开始公开交易
2332	David Rubenstein of the Carlisle Group, I am so pleased to say, joins us now for more.	卡莱尔集团的大卫·鲁本斯坦(David Rubenstein),我非常高兴地说,现在加入我们的行列。
2333	David, so good to see you.	大卫,很高兴见到你。
2334	Thank you for being with us.	谢谢你和我们在一起
2335	I want to start with the capital market cycle, with the anthropic IPO likely to price next	我想从资本市场开始, 人类IPO可能价格下一个
2336	week.	礼拜
2337	Where do you see us in this capital market cycle right now?	你从哪里看到我们在这个资本市场的周期?
2338	Well, clearly, the IPO is going to get done and get done at a very, very high valuation.	很明显,IPO会以非常高的估价完成和完成。
2339	I think only probably the deal that was higher was the SpaceX valuation.	我认为只有SpaceX的估价 才是更高的交易
2340	The anthropic deal was originally going to go at something like closer to $2 trillion.	人类交易原本会以接近2万亿美元的速度进行。
2341	I think because a lot of other things going on in the market, it's more likely to go to	我认为,因为很多其他的事情 在市场上, 它更可能去
2342	about $1.3 trillion.	约1.3万亿美元。
2343	But that's still a very, very high valuation.	但这仍然是非常非常高的评价。
2344	And it's a company that doesn't earn any money, but still has great potential.	而这个公司虽然没有挣到任何钱,但仍然有巨大的潜力.
2345	So it'll be massively oversubscribed, but people should remember that when people want	因此,它会是巨大的 过度订阅, 但人们应该记住,当人们想要
2346	to buy stock and something hot like this, they ask for more than they expect to get.	买股票和类似热的东西 他们要求的比预期的多
2347	So when something is double, triple or quadruple oversubscribed, it's not because people really	所以,当东西是双倍,三倍或四倍 过度订阅,这不是因为人们真的
2348	expect to get four times or three times what they ask for.	期望得到他们要求的4倍或3倍。
2349	They expect to get a fraction of it, and that's why it's often massively oversubscribed.	他们期望得到其中的一小部分,这也是为什么它经常被大规模过度订阅的原因.
2350	I'm so glad that you sort of cast some reality on all of these headlines where typically	我很高兴你给这些头条新闻 写了点事实
2351	we get for some of these hot deals, the multiple oversubscribed type of rhetoric.	我们得到了一些热门交易, 多种过度订阅的辞令类型。
2352	Do you think that the IPO window is likely to close or at least narrow substantially	你认为IPO窗口 有可能关闭或至少大幅度缩小
2353	after this particular deal gets done?	交易完成后?
2354	Well, there's nothing else quite like this except for OpenAI, and OpenAI I think is going	除了OpenAI之外 没有什么比这更像的了
2355	to postpone until next year on its IPO.	将IPO推迟到明年。
2356	But there are very few companies that are this kind of significant companies that are	但这种重要的公司很少
2357	going to be in the IPO market is going to be reasonably OK.	将进入IPO市场 将是相当好的。
2358	The IPO market generally shuts down pretty much in December because people don't tend	IPO市场一般在12月关闭,因为人们不看
2359	to want to do things at the end of the year.	想在年底做点什么
2360	So I think this probably will be the most significant IPO before the end of the year.	因此,我认为这可能是今年年底前最重要的IPO。
2361	But early next year, there'll be a number of significant ones, and I suspect OpenAI	但明年初,会有不少重要的, 我怀疑OpenAI
2362	will be among them.	将会是其中之一。
2363	Is there a vantage to being first out of the gate?	有先出门之利否.
2364	Well, sometimes there is, and sometimes there isn't.	有时候有,有时没有。
2365	It depends on whether if you really have good numbers and you're growing.	这取决于你是否真的有 良好的数字和你的成长。
2366	Clearly, these are unusual companies because historically you don't have companies go	很明显,这些公司很不寻常 因为历史上你没有公司去
2367	public that aren't making money.	公众不赚钱。
2368	当我们学习SpaceX 和我们学习Anthropic和OpenAI, 这些非常
2369	significant companies.	大型企业。
2370	They're transforming the economy, but they don't make money.	他们正在改造经济,但并不赚钱.
2371	当然Anthropic现在没有赚钱,OpenAI我相信没有赚钱
2372	either.	也一样。
2373	But investors don't care about that.	但投资者并不关心这一点.
2374	They just look at growth and they figure that profits will eventually come.	他们只是看增长, 他们认为利润最终会来。
2375	And they may be right.	他们也许是对的。
2376	Remember, some companies that went public many years ago didn't have a lot of profits,	记住,一些公司 多年前就上市了,没有多少利润,
2377	and then they turned out to be companies like Amazon.	然后他们变成了亚马逊这样的公司。
2378	David, we talk about another story that has just got the attention of Washington and Wall	大卫,我们谈另一个故事 刚刚引起了华盛顿和华尔的注意
2379	Street both combined.	街道综合。
2380	What do you make of what is going on in terms of the corporate governance issues, but also	你对公司治理问题有何看法?
2381	national security concerns regarding Jensen Wong and Nvidia?	黄詹森和恩维迪亚的国家安全问题?
2382	Well, I'm not an expert on it.	我不是专家
2383	I'll give you my view on it from afar.	从远处给你我的看法
2384	It is that whenever you get something that deals with sex, it gets a lot of attention	每当你得到一些与性有关的东西, 它会得到很多关注
2385	and obviously disproportionate amount of attention, perhaps.	和明显不成比例的注意力,也许。
2386	Clearly, more attention is focused on this because of the national security implications.	显然,由于对国家安全的影响,人们更加关注这一问题。
2387	I suspect there'll be investigations by the company.	我怀疑公司会进行调查
2388	They've announced one.	他们已经宣布了一个。
2389	I suspect the U.S.	我怀疑美国。
2390	Congress will do an investigation as well.	国会也会进行调查
2391	And perhaps the U.S.	也许还有美国
2392	Government Commerce Department or Justice Department will look at it.	政府商务部或司法部将研究。
2393	I'd be very, very surprised if in the end, the CEO is not going to be the CEO in the	如果最终首席执行官不会在
2394	future.	未来
2395	He may have greater constraints.	他可能有更大的限制。
2396	Maybe they'll separate the CEO in the chairman role and do other things like that.	也许他们会把CEO分开 担任董事长 做其他类似的事情
2397	But Jensen Wong is the company, more or less.	不过詹森 黄帝为连,或多或少.
2398	It has built the company from scratch.	它从头开始建立公司。
2399	He's got 60 direct reports.	他有60个直接报告
2400	It would be very difficult to think that they're going to throw him overboard.	很难想象他们会把他扔下船
2401	I would not think that would happen.	我没想到会这样
2402	I suspect there'll be some risk slapping.	我怀疑可能会有危险
2403	But on the end, I suspect he'll be the CEO with a little bit more, less power perhaps	但到头来,我猜想他会是CEO 也许能多一点,少一点力量
2404	than he had before.	比他以前还厉害
2405	But the company is so important to the United States that I just can't see us throwing him	但公司对美国很重要,我看不到我们扔他
2406	overboard and thinking that's going to be good for the country.	这对这个国家有好处
2407	That's it, David.	就这样,大卫。
2408	And you are at the perfect crossroads of business in Washington and understanding how this can	你处在华盛顿的完美十字路口 并且明白这怎么可能
2409	work.	工作时
2410	And we are hearing more about a backlash against AI, against data centers, against	我们听到更多反对AI,反对数据中心,反对
2411	some of the more lenient policies in terms of exports.	一些较宽松的出口政策。
2412	How much do you see that curtailing some of the momentum that we have seen in the AI trade	在AI贸易中看到一些势头的减退,
2413	to date?	到现在?
2414	Well, the votes that occurred last week show that there are a lot of people that don't	上周的投票显示 很多人不会
2415	want AI centers and data centers in their neighborhood and in their state.	需要AI中心和数据中心 在他们的邻居和状态。
2416	So I think 40 of 41 ballot votes went against having data centers in the area that was	因此,我认为41张选票中有40张投票反对在这一地区设立数据中心。
2417	relevant for the votes.	与表决有关。
2418	I suspect that Congress and the administration will take that into account.	我怀疑国会和政府会考虑到这一点。
2419	And I think there will be a slowing down of these data centers and they will be less	我认为这些数据中心会减慢 并且会减少
2420	visible perhaps in some respects.	也许在某些方面是可见的。
2421	Maybe they'll be smaller.	也许它们会变小
2422	But in the end, the data centers are necessary if you're going to have all of the AI that	但是,归根结底,数据中心是必需的 如果你要拥有所有的AI,
2423	we really think we should have.	我们真的认为我们应该有。
2424	But again, probably slow down a little bit, probably won't be as robust in terms of people	但是,可能再慢一点, 可能不会那么强壮的人
2425	making big announcements about data centers.	发布关于数据中心的大公告。
2426	And I think people may be shyer about announcing they're going to have data centers or maybe	我觉得人们可能更害羞 宣布他们要去 数据中心或也许
2427	they'll change the name of data centers or something else.	他们会改变数据中心的名称 或其他什么的。
2428	But in the end, I think data centers are here to stay and are going to grow.	但归根结底,我认为数据中心会在这里停留 并且会不断壮大。
2429	And the theory that if we don't do it, other countries are going to do it and we'll fall	而理论,如果我们不这样做, 其他国家会这样做,我们会跌倒
2430	behind.	后面 后面那个
2431	One thing that you do in your free time is you also are the host of a show and do lots	你空闲时间做的一件事就是 你也是节目的主持人 做很多事
2432	of other things.	其他东西。
2433	The new episode of the David Rubenstein show, Peer to Peer Conversations, out tonight.	大卫·鲁本斯坦节目的新剧集 《对等对话》今晚上映
2434	You're sitting down with the Take Two interactive CEO Strauss Zeldnick.	你和两个互动首席执行官斯特劳斯·塞尔德尼克坐在一起
2435	Take a listen to a clip from that.	听听这个片段
2436	We believe that Grand Theft Auto franchise as a whole is probably the most valuable	我们认为,Grand Theft Auto 特许经营权作为一个整体可能是最有价值的
2437	intellectual property in the entertainment business of any type.	任何类型娱乐业的知识产权。
2438	Because of its enormous reach to consumers worldwide, the team at Rockstar has been	由于其对全世界消费者的极大影响,Rockstar的团队一直
2439	working diligently to try to create something extraordinary with Grand Theft Auto 6.	辛勤工作 尝试创造出一些非同寻常的东西 与Grand Theft Auto 6。
2440	I believe they will.	我相信他们会的
2441	And I'm very optimistic.	我很乐观。
2442	David, AmH and I have a crucial question for you.	大卫,我有一个关键的问题要问你
2443	Have you ever played video games before?	你以前玩过电子游戏吗?
2444	I have never actually played a video game to my dismay, probably.	我可能从没玩过电子游戏
2445	And obviously, I'm probably not the right person to comment on it.	很明显,我可能不适合评论它。
2446	But Grand Theft Auto 6 is coming out with the most hype of any video game ever in history.	但Grand Theft Auto 6以有史以来任何电子游戏中最热闹的一幕出现.
2447	And I suspect it will dramatically increase the sales for Take Two, which is the company	我怀疑这会大大增加Take Two的销量 也就是公司
2448	that Strauss Zeldnick is CEO of.	斯特劳斯·塞尔德尼克是首席执行官
2449	So it is something I should probably learn to deal with my grandchildren.	所以我应该学着处理我的孙子
2450	But I really haven't yet played video games.	但我还没有玩过电子游戏
2451	But I hope spring's eternal that maybe I can learn.	但我希望春天的永恒,也许我可以学习。
2452	I am a little bit upset, David, that you didn't do this as part of your research	我有点不高兴,大卫,你没有这样做 作为研究的一部分
2453	to sit down to play some of the video games.	坐下来玩一些电子游戏
2454	In all seriousness, what did you take away from this interview?	说真的,你从这次采访中拿走了什么?
2455	Strauss Zeldnick几乎从头开始建立了这家公司
2456	He took it over years ago when it was more or less getting ready to be bankrupt.	他多年前拿它 当它或多或少 准备破产。
2457	And he turned it around and made it an extremely valuable company now.	他转过身来,使之成为了一个非常有价值的公司。
2458	And I think it's one of the leading video game companies in the world.	我认为它是世界上领先的电子游戏公司之一。
2459	And Take Two has just done a spectacular job with one part of it,	拿着 两个刚刚做了一个壮观的工作 用它的一部分,
2460	which is the Grand Theft Auto and Auto 6.	这是大盗窃汽车和汽车6。
2461	And I should learn more about it.	我应该多学点
2462	I probably should have played some of it before I did the interview.	我大概应该在接受采访之前 播放一些
2463	But in the end, I hope my grandchildren can teach me how to do these games.	但最终我希望我的孙子们能教我如何做这些游戏.
2464	And I think I'm missing out on a lot of what's happening in the world	我想我错过了很多 发生在世界上的事情
2465	by not playing video games.	不玩电子游戏。
2466	I'm not sure anyone could really say that with a straight face.	我不确定有没有人能直说
2467	David Rubenstein of the Carlisle Group, thank you so much for being with us.	卡莱尔集团的大卫·鲁本斯坦(David Rubenstein),非常感谢你和我们在一起.
2468	Always a pleasure to speak with you.	总是很高兴跟你说话。
2469	And don't miss the latest edition of The David Rubenstein Show,	别错过最新版的《大卫·鲁本斯坦秀》
2470	peer-to-peer conversations tonight at 9 p.m.	今晚9点 同行交谈
2471	Right now in markets, you can see a lift across the board right now	现在在市场上,你可以看到 横跨全局,现在
2472	as people look at core weaves.	当人们看 核心编织。
2473	Results say actually the AI trade is doing well.	结果显示人工智能贸易进展良好。
2474	People saying maybe it's even possible to step back into Nvidia.	人们说也许可以回到恩维迪亚
2475	Notable that David was saying he doesn't think it's likely	大卫说他认为不可能
2476	that Jensen Wong is going to step down.	黄詹森要下台了
2477	Yeah, and David talking about how important this person is,	大卫说这个人有多重要
2478	not just for Nvidia, how important he is for the U.S. economy	他对美国经济有多重要
2479	in terms of just this individual that has become really the face.	就这个人而言,他已经变成了真正的面孔
2480	When Dan Ives says the godfather of AI, he really has become the face	当Dan Ives说出AI的教父时 他真的变成了脸
2481	of this entire technology.	这整个技术。
2482	Yeah, coming up tomorrow, we have Keith Lerner of Truist,	是啊,明天来, 我们有凯斯・勒纳的特鲁斯特,
2483	Claudia Somm of New Century Advisors,	新世纪顾问克劳迪娅·索姆
2484	布莱克洛克的迈克·皮尔(Mike Pyle of BlackRock)和参数的尼莎·帕特尔(Nisha Patel).
2485	The bond market will be back open.	债券市场将恢复开放。
2486	Let's see if they can get it together	我们看看他们能不能凑到一起
2487	and follow the rally that you're seeing in stocks today.	跟着你今天看到的股票集会
2488	After yesterday's sell-off, the biggest rise in two-year yields	经过昨天的销售,最大的上升 两年产量
2489	going back to April of 2025.	追溯到2025年4月
2490	这是Bloomberg监视。
2491	Thank you so much for watching.	谢谢你的观看
2492	This is Bloomberg.	这是彭博社

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