【BBC商业新闻】20261112 Business Tod
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:05 | 让我们留在AI 并谈论巨型Anthropic。 | |
| 0:09 | It's revealed more details about | 更多细节显示 |
| 0:10 | its upcoming market flotation later this month. | 本月晚些时候,它即将上市。 |
| 0:13 | The creator of the chatbot, Claude, has said | 聊天机器人的创造者克劳德说 |
| 0:16 | it is aiming for a valuation of up to $1.3 trillion in what's expected to be one of the | 它的目标是对预计的1.3万亿美元进行估值。 |
| 0:21 | biggest ever Wall Street debuts. | 华尔街最精彩的首秀 |
| 0:24 | The company is planning to raise up to $64 billion through | 公司计划通过 |
| 0:27 | the sale of shares. | 出售股票。 |
| 0:29 | However, Anthropic's valuation is lower than some analysts had predicted | 然而,Anthropic的估价低于一些分析家的预测. |
| 0:33 | a few weeks ago. | 几个星期前 |
展开字幕全文（360 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 让我们留在AI 并谈论巨型Anthropic。 | |
| 2 | It's revealed more details about | 更多细节显示 |
| 3 | its upcoming market flotation later this month. | 本月晚些时候,它即将上市。 |
| 4 | The creator of the chatbot, Claude, has said | 聊天机器人的创造者克劳德说 |
| 5 | it is aiming for a valuation of up to $1.3 trillion in what's expected to be one of the | 它的目标是对预计的1.3万亿美元进行估值。 |
| 6 | biggest ever Wall Street debuts. | 华尔街最精彩的首秀 |
| 7 | The company is planning to raise up to $64 billion through | 公司计划通过 |
| 8 | the sale of shares. | 出售股票。 |
| 9 | However, Anthropic's valuation is lower than some analysts had predicted | 然而,Anthropic的估价低于一些分析家的预测. |
| 10 | a few weeks ago. | 几个星期前 |
| 11 | The listing will test investors' appetite for AI amid concerns that a Democrat-led | 上市将考验投资者对AI的胃口, |
| 12 | U.S. Congress will put the brakes on the expansion of AI data centers. | 美国国会将制动AI数据中心扩建. |
| 13 | With more, here's Michelle | 还有,米歇尔来了 |
| 14 | Fleury. | 弗罗里 |
| 15 | After Wall Street's recent AI jitters, there had been speculation about whether or | 在华尔街最近发生AI紧张事件后,人们曾猜测, |
| 16 | would still move forward with its planned blockbuster stock market debut. | 仍然会继续推进 其计划 板块股票市场初选。 |
| 17 | After all, | 毕竟. |
| 18 | who wants to sell shares when stocks are tumbling faster than a falling knife? | 股票跌得比刀子快 谁想卖股票? |
| 19 | But it seems | 但看起来 |
| 20 | the leaders of Anthropic and its bankers are holding their nerve because the maker of Claude | 因为克劳德的制造者 |
| 21 | AI plans to list on the stock exchange at the Nasdaq as soon as next week with a valuation | AI计划下周在纳斯达克的证券交易所上市 并进行估值 |
| 22 | of around $1.3 trillion. | 大约1.3万亿美元。 |
| 23 | Now, that may be an eye-watering sum, but it is significantly | 现在,这可能是一个 眼水的和,但它是显著的 |
| 24 | less than the $2 trillion valuation it was eyeing just a month ago. | 比一个月前的两万亿美元价值还少 |
| 25 | It's also hoping | 这也是希望 |
| 26 | to raise as much as $64 billion from the share sale. | 从股票销售中筹集高达640亿美元。 |
| 27 | The floatation comes as tech stocks | 漂浮是技术储备 |
| 28 | have taken a bit of a beating. | 打了一顿 |
| 29 | After last week's U.S. midterm elections, the Nasdaq | 在上周的美国中期选举之后, |
| 30 | fell sharply on worries that a Democrat-led Congress could slow the development of AI | 担心民主党领导的国会会延缓AI的发展, |
| 31 | as well as the build-out of data centers. | 以及数据中心的建设。 |
| 32 | There are also ongoing fears over the billions | 还有十几亿的恐惧 |
| 33 | of dollars being spent on AI and whether or not those bets will ever pay off. | 以及这些赌注是否还清 |
| 34 | So making | 如此创造 |
| 35 | its stock market debut will be a huge test of Wall Street's appetite for AI stocks. | 华尔街对AI股票的胃口 将是一个巨大的考验 |
| 36 | Well let's talk to Fiona Chincotta, Senior Market Analyst at StoneX. | 好吧,让我们谈谈菲奥娜钦科塔, 高级市场分析师在斯通X。 |
| 37 | Morning to you Fiona. | 早上好 菲奥娜 |
| 38 | So everybody is looking at this as a test, as Michelle there just outlined, and yet we're | 所以,每个人都把这看作是一个测试, 正如米歇尔刚才概述, |
| 39 | just reading this morning in the Financial Times, Anthropic's bankers are apparently | 今早在《金融时报》上读到 安东尼的银行家显然 |
| 40 | weighing up plans to increase the group's public offering price because of such huge | 由于如此之大, |
| 41 | demand. | 需求。 |
| 42 | So it would seem that the demand is there. | 因此,似乎有需求。 |
| 43 | Yes, the initial signs are suggesting that there is strong demand. | 是的,初步迹象显示需求很大。 |
| 44 | As you mentioned, | 正如你提到的, |
| 45 | the roadshow which started is seeing strong demand coming through early, strong indications | 开始的路程 出现了强烈的需求 早期,强烈的迹象 |
| 46 | of demand. | 需求。 |
| 47 | So that means that they will potentially be able to get that higher price point that | 因此,这意味着他们有可能 得到更高的价格点 |
| 48 | they'll be looking for, which obviously means more money can be made from the stock debut | 他们正在寻找, 这显然意味着可以赚更多的钱 从股票首播 |
| 49 | and obviously a slightly higher valuation. | 并且显然价值略高。 |
| 50 | Now I think actually what the focus here is | 现在我想这里的焦点是什么 |
| 51 | very much on how much funds that they can actually get through the IPO, given the huge | 他们能从IPO那里得到多少资金 |
| 52 | amount of spending which is needed in order to continue to push AI development forward. | 继续推动AI发展所需的支出数额。 |
| 53 | Yes, I was going to say, I mean because it needs to raise as much money as possible at | 是的,我要说,我的意思是,因为它需要 筹集尽可能多的资金在 |
| 54 | market floatation. | 市场浮动。 |
| 55 | And it's interesting timing, isn't it, given what's been going on, the | 这是有趣的时机,是不是, 考虑到一直以来, |
| 56 | outcome of the U.S. midterm elections, the big tech sell-off we saw last week, and now | 美国中期选举的结果, 我们上周看到的大科技卖掉,现在 |
| 57 | the sell-off of Nvidia stock this week. | 这周Nvidia股票的出售 |
| 58 | Yes, definitely. | 是的,当然。 |
| 59 | I mean, if you were going | 我是说,如果你要走 |
| 60 | to pick the perfect time to go for an IPO for a pure play AI company, this would definitely | 选择一个完美的时间 去一个IPO 一个纯粹的游戏AI公司, 这肯定会 |
| 61 | not be it. | 已经不是了 |
| 62 | But the fact that they're pushing ahead anyway, and the fact that the demand | 但事实上,他们正在推进 无论如何,以及事实上,需求 |
| 63 | is showing signs of strong indication, a very encouraging sign. | 显示强烈迹象,这是一个非常令人鼓舞的迹象。 |
| 64 | So I think, you know, | 所以我觉得,你知道, |
| 65 | even though the valuation is expected to come in significantly down from that sort of two trillion | 尽管预计估值会从两万亿美元大幅下降 |
| 66 | that was floated back in September, it's still seeing strong demand, which is a very encouraging | 在9月浮出水面,它仍然看到 强烈的需求,这是一个非常令人鼓舞的 |
| 67 | sign as we sort of head towards the debut next week. | 签下下周的首秀 |
| 68 | And I just wonder actually if OpenAI are | 我只是在想,OpenAI是不是... |
| 69 | watching this very closely indeed, because of course they delayed their potential market | 因为他们当然会推迟他们的市场 |
| 70 | floatation until the new year. | 漂浮至新年. |
| 71 | Maybe they're thinking, do it now quickly before the Democrats | 也许他们在想,现在快赶在民主党之前 |
| 72 | take hold of Congress. | (掌声) |
| 73 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 74 | Yes, I mean, that would be a thought, I think. | 是的,我的意思是, 这是一个想法,我想。 |
| 75 | And the other thing is there is this sense, you know, it's very much an AI race and there does | 另一件事是,有这种感觉, 你知道,它非常 AI种族,有 |
| 76 | have this feeling as well that because Anthropic are getting there first with the IPO, does that | 也有这种感觉 因为Anthropic会先到IPO那里 |
| 77 | mean as well that they are just that bit further ahead in the race of AI? | 也意味着他们在AI的比赛中更领先了? |
| 78 | So I think timing here | 所以我觉得时机正好 |
| 79 | is very important. | 这一点很重要。 |
| 80 | I think it does tell us something that Anthropic are actually going ahead | 我认为它确实告诉我们一些东西,Anthropic实际上正在前进。 |
| 81 | and I don't think that's necessarily beneficial for OpenAI that they've left it or looking to | 我觉得这对OpenAI来说 不一定有好处 他们已经离开它或期待 |
| 82 | leave it until the new year. | 留到新年为止 |
| 83 | Okay, Fiona, good to see you as ever. | 好吧 菲奥娜 很高兴见到你 |
| 84 | We'll see you soon. | 不久见. |
| 85 | Fiona | 菲奥娜 |
| 86 | Shincotta there from Stone X. | 辛科塔从石头X那里。 |
| 87 | Now let's stay with tech, because are you one of those people that | 现在让我们留在技术, 因为你是那种人之一 |
| 88 | just gets really wound up by being bombarded by loads of adverts and pop-ups when you're on | 被一连串的广告和弹出 炸得一团糟 |
| 89 | certain apps or websites and which may have led you to mistakenly subscribe to something as well | 某些应用软件或网站 也可能导致你误认 |
| 90 | that, you know, money going out of your account monthly, you don't realize it? | 你知道,钱从你的账户里 每月,你不知道吗? |
| 91 | Well, the European | 欧洲人 |
| 92 | Union is ready to clamp down on this by giving some extra details of its digital fairness act. | 联盟准备通过提供其数字公平法的一些额外细节来遏制这种情况。 |
| 93 | The proposals, which are expected today, would let the Commission fine companies up to six percent | 这些建议预计到今天, 将使委员会罚款公司高达6% |
| 94 | of their global turnover if they break the new rules. | 如果它们打破了新的规则,它们的全球交易额。 |
| 95 | Well, let's talk to Isabel Buska, | 好吧,让我们谈谈 伊莎贝尔布斯卡, |
| 96 | who is Secretary General of Finance Watch, a non-profit association in Brussels that advocates | 财务观察组织秘书长,布鲁塞尔非营利协会,倡导 |
| 97 | for the public interest in European financial regulation. | 为了欧洲金融监管的公共利益。 |
| 98 | Isabel, welcome to the program. | 伊莎贝尔 欢迎加入节目 |
| 99 | So first of all, what are the new rules? | 首先,新规则是什么? |
| 100 | So, so far we've only seen a leak. | 因此,到目前为止,我们只看到一个泄漏。 |
| 101 | The European Commission | 欧洲联盟委员会 |
| 102 | is going to show its hands today with a real proposal, and it's supposed to update the current | 今天要用一个真正的提案 来展示自己的手,它应该更新当前 |
| 103 | consumer legislation framework in the European Union. | 欧洲联盟的消费者立法框架。 |
| 104 | So it's everything about unfair commercial | 所以这是所有关于不公平的广告 |
| 105 | practices. | 实践。 |
| 106 | What we've seen so far is quite encouraging on what we call dark patterns, | 我们目前所看到的是相当鼓舞人心的 我们称之为黑暗模式, |
| 107 | so manipulative interface design. | 如此操纵性接口设计. |
| 108 | And then there are, you know, some banned practices overall, | 还有,你知道, 一些禁止的做法, |
| 109 | as you were saying, about what the fines could be if we breach those rules and advertising, | 正如你说的, 如果我们违反那些规则和广告,罚款会是什么, |
| 110 | subscription, use of chatbots, human intervention. | 订阅,使用聊天机,人类干预. |
| 111 | So it's going to be a very broad bouquet, I'd say. | 所以,这将是 一个非常宽的花,我想说。 |
| 112 | And generally speaking, when these new rules come into play in Europe, and, you know, | 一般来说,当这些新规则在欧洲发挥作用时, 你知道, |
| 113 | European Commission is always putting its front forward on these points, | 欧洲联盟委员会始终站在这些要点的前沿, |
| 114 | and it's targeting to a great degree the big names in technology in the United States. | 而且它在很大程度上是针对美国科技界的大名。 |
| 115 | Do the fines follow through? | 罚款会兑现吗? |
| 116 | I mean, do we see the clampdown as promised? | 我的意思是,我们是否看到 关闭的承诺? |
| 117 | So I think it's important to realise that this law, once it's passed, it will apply across the | 因此,我认为重要的是要意识到,这部法律一旦通过,将适用于整个 |
| 118 | board. | 董事会。 |
| 119 | So it's not targeting necessarily big techs, but it will be applicable also for energy | 所以它不一定是针对大科技的 但也会适用于能源 |
| 120 | companies, telecoms companies, online shopping, like everything, financial services included, | 公司,电信公司,网上购物, 像所有,金融服务, |
| 121 | obviously. | 很明显 |
| 122 | So the fines is more an alignment of what the European Union has done since it enacted | 因此,罚款更符合欧洲联盟自颁布以来所做的工作。 |
| 123 | its data protection law, general data protection regulation. | 其数据保护法、一般数据保护条例。 |
| 124 | And so it's really about making it | 所以,这真的是 做它 |
| 125 | proportionate. | 相称。 |
| 126 | It's the upper limit of what fines can be imposed. | 这是罚款的上限。 |
| 127 | The European Commission latest | 欧洲联盟委员会最近 |
| 128 | estimations of the harm that's inflicted to consumers by those unfair commercial practices | 估计这些不公平商业做法对消费者造成的损害 |
| 129 | in the digital space run around 10 billion annually. | 在数字空间,每年运行约100亿。 |
| 130 | And so the European Commission seems | 所以欧盟委员会似乎 |
| 131 | to think that this is also proportionate to have those tools. | 认为这对于拥有这些工具也是相称的。 |
| 132 | In its communications, the | 在来文中, |
| 133 | Commission has also highlighted that compliance with European consumer law is relatively poor | 委员会还强调,遵守欧洲消费者法的情况相对较差。 |
| 134 | across sectors. | 跨部门。 |
| 135 | So that's, of course, a stick of how to improve that. | 所以,当然,这是如何改进它。 |
| 136 | OK, Isabel Buska, thank you for explaining all of that. | 好了 伊莎贝尔·布斯卡 谢谢你解释这一切 |
| 137 | We shall keep an eye out for when those | 等他们来了,我们会注意的 |
| 138 | announcements are made later. | 通知将在晚些时候作出。 |
| 139 | Still to come, Christmas unplugged screens are out to favour | 圣诞未插上屏幕,还是要来 |
| 140 | this festive season with sales of conventional toys on the rise. | 这个节日季节 传统玩具的销量在上升 |
| 141 | We'll be looking at what's | 我们会看什么 |
| 142 | making Santa's list. | 做了圣诞老人的名单。 |
| 143 | Around the world and across the UK, this is BBC News. | 环游世界和整个英国,这是英国广播公司新闻。 |
| 144 | You're with Business | 你和商号在一起 |
| 145 | Today on BBC News. | 今天在BBC新闻. |
| 146 | To Singapore now, where the Monetary Authority there has officially opened | 现在的新加坡, 那里的货币管理局已经正式开放 |
| 147 | its high security national currency vault to foreign central banks looking to securely store | 其高度安全的国家货币金库供外国中央银行安全存放 |
| 148 | their sovereign gold reserves. | 他们的主权黄金储备。 |
| 149 | It comes as central banks worldwide aggressively stockpile precious | 全世界各中央银行大量储存珍贵物品 |
| 150 | metals amid geopolitical friction, with Singapore now positioning itself as a premier global safe | 面对地缘政治摩擦,新加坡现在定位为全球第一安全区 |
| 151 | {\fn华文仿宋\fs16\1cHD1D1D1}好 | |
| 152 | 新加坡的Archana Shukla报道. | |
| 153 | I'm in a very, very secure location and around me | 我在一个非常,非常安全的地方 和我身边 |
| 154 | lots of silver bars being stacked up meters high. | 很多银条被堆积起来 高米。 |
| 155 | This is where this is one of the largest | 这儿是最大的 |
| 156 | private vaults here in Singapore, and it's actually set to gain, you know, because of the | 在新加坡的私人金库, 它实际上被设定 获得,你知道,因为 |
| 157 | government opening up its national vault for storage for central banks around the world. | 政府开放其国家金库供世界各国中央银行存放。 |
| 158 | And, you know, this is the time when precious metals like gold and silver have actually over | 黄金和白银等贵金属实际上已经结束了 |
| 159 | the last several months seen a record high. | 在过去几个月里,创下了历史新高。 |
| 160 | Central banks are buying record amounts of gold | 中央银行正在购买黄金记录 |
| 161 | and they need places to store it. | 他们需要地方储存它。 |
| 162 | And, you know, central banks are also wanting to diversify their | 而且,你知道,央行 也想要分散他们的 |
| 163 | storage outside of New York and London. | 在纽约和伦敦之外存放。 |
| 164 | That's traditionally been the places where central banks | 那一直是中央银行的所在地 |
| 165 | actually store their precious metals, but they now want to move it closer to, you know, places | 其实是储存他们的贵金属, 但是他们现在想把它移动到,你知道的,地方 |
| 166 | where they can source it easily and also where the consumers are. | 在那里,他们可以很容易的来源 和消费者在哪里。 |
| 167 | And Asia is where the biggest | 亚洲是最大的 |
| 168 | consumers for gold and silver are, you know, accounting for almost half of the entire gold | 黄金和白银的消费者 几乎占了全部黄金的一半 |
| 169 | consumption in the world. | 世界的消费。 |
| 170 | And this is where Singapore wants to become the gold hub. | 这就是新加坡想要成为黄金枢纽的地方. |
| 171 | They've | 他们已经 |
| 172 | also, you know, eased out some of the regulations and policies around holding and trading and also | 而且,你知道,放松了一些 有关持有和交易的条例和政策,以及 |
| 173 | fixing of prices for these metals. | 确定这些金属的价格。 |
| 174 | And that's where private vaults like where I am right now, | 那里是私人金库 像我现在的位置, |
| 175 | you know, become very crucial because while central banks also move their gold and silver, | 你知道,变得非常关键 因为虽然央行也移动他们的金银 |
| 176 | private institutions, banks as well as ultra, you know, wealthy individuals also are moving | 私人机构,银行 以及极端,你知道,富人 也在移动 |
| 177 | their gold closer to where they want to access it. | 他们的黄金更接近 他们想要访问的地方。 |
| 178 | And that's where the location where I am | 而这就是我的位置 |
| 179 | becomes so significant. | 变得如此重要。 |
| 180 | There you go, Archana Shukla, surrounded by precious metals there. | 你去那里,阿查纳舒克拉, 周围是贵金属。 |
| 181 | Now let's get some of the day's other business stories. | 现在让我们来谈谈今天的其他商业故事。 |
| 182 | Poundland is hopeful its impending | 英镑希望它即将来临 |
| 183 | collapse can be delayed to allow time for a last-minute rescue deal. | 崩溃可以推迟,以便有时间进行最后一分钟的救援交易。 |
| 184 | The discount chain | 折扣链 |
| 185 | has been edging towards administration after being blocked by its owners from accessing cash | 被所有者阻止取用现金后,一直向行政部门发展 |
| 186 | in its bank accounts. | 在其银行账户中。 |
| 187 | While a deadline to find a buyer expires at midnight tonight, sources have | 虽然找到买家的最后期限在今晚午夜结束,但消息来源 |
| 188 | told the BBC they expect more time will be granted following the release of £10 million in funding. | 英国广播公司说,他们期望在1 000万英镑的资金发放之后会有更多的时间。 |
| 189 | CoreWeave, one of the key infrastructure providers for AI, has reported a massive | CoreWeave是AI的主要基础设施供应商之一, |
| 190 | revenue jump of 168% to a record $3.66 billion, signaling strong demand for AI infrastructure | 收入跃升168%,创记录地达到36.6亿美元,表明对AI基础设施的需求强劲 |
| 191 | despite the market slowdown. | 尽管市场放缓。 |
| 192 | The company's stock, however, suffered a steady decline over the past | 不过公司股票在过去持续下降 |
| 193 | few months as the company's under pressure over growing debt to finance the infrastructure build | 由于公司承受着不断增长的债务 投资基础设施建设的压力 |
| 194 | out, which was raised to $47 billion this quarter. | 这个季度涨到470亿美元 |
| 195 | Now if we head to China, where the country's | 现在,如果我们去中国, 这个国家的 |
| 196 | biggest shopping festival of the year kicks off, it's known as Singles Day. | 一年中最盛大的购物节 被称作"单身节" |
| 197 | It's been going now for | 它已经走了 |
| 198 | 17 years and last year recorded sales of around $238 billion. | 17年和去年记录的销售额约为2,380亿美元。 |
| 199 | Now some analysts warn though that | 现在有些分析家警告说 |
| 200 | this time we may have seen a peak amid difficult global economic picture with consumers looking | 这一次我们可能已经看到一个高峰 在困难的全球经济形势中, 消费者看 |
| 201 | looking to tighten their purse strings and maybe save rather than spend. | 想要收紧他们的钱包 并也许节省而不是花费。 |
| 202 | And that's despite Beijing's | 尽管北京是 |
| 203 | efforts to fuel domestic demand. | 努力刺激国内需求。 |
| 204 | So how will Singles Day go down this year? | 那么今年Singles日会怎么样呢? |
| 205 | Well let's go | 我们走吧 |
| 206 | live to Shanghai and speak to Sean Ryan, who's founder and managing director of the China Market | 住在上海,跟中国市场创始人兼总经理肖恩·瑞安说话 |
| 207 | Research Group. | 研究组. |
| 208 | Sean, welcome. | 西恩,欢迎。 |
| 209 | It's great to be here, Sally. | 很高兴在这里,莎莉。 |
| 210 | Unfortunately, Singles Day is going | 可惜的是,单身日就要到了 |
| 211 | to be a dud this year. | 成为今年的哑弹。 |
| 212 | Retail sales in China has only grown about 0.9% over the last quarter because | 中国的零售额在上个季度只增长了0.9%,因为 |
| 213 | the middle class Chinese consumer, and there are about 400 million of them, are anxious right now. | 中产阶级的中国消费者,还有大约4亿的中国消费者,现在很焦虑. |
| 214 | They're worried because housing prices are still down 30 to 50% off their peak five years ago and | 他们很担心,因为五年前 房价仍然比高峰低30%到50% |
| 215 | incomes and Chinese New Year bonuses have remained stagnant the last few years. | 过去几年来,收入和中国新年奖金一直停滞不前。 |
| 216 | So unfortunately, | 很遗憾 |
| 217 | I think for a lot of brands, the Chinese consumer just hasn't rebounded yet. | 我认为对于很多品牌,中国消费者只是还没有反弹. |
| 218 | It's not a V-shaped | 这不是V形 |
| 219 | recovery. | 复原。 |
| 220 | We're going to see a lot of stagnation and flatlining for the middle class consumer in | 我们将会看到很多停滞和 平缓的中产阶级消费者在 |
| 221 | the coming quarter, Sally. | 下一个季度,莎莉。 |
| 222 | And yet the authorities in China have done everything they think they can | 但中国当局已经尽了一切可能 |
| 223 | to try and boost domestic demand, haven't they? | 试图刺激国内需求,不是吗? |
| 224 | They've introduced all sorts of measures earlier | 他们之前已经采取了各种各样的措施 |
| 225 | this year and the year before to try and get Chinese consumers spending. | 尝试让中国消费者花钱 |
| 226 | So you've mentioned | 你说过 |
| 227 | the issues as to why that is not working. | 问题在于为什么这行不通。 |
| 228 | When will we see a shift? | 我们什么时候可以换班? |
| 229 | Well, one of the problems, | 其中一个问题 |
| 230 | Sally, is that there's massive inflation going on in the world. | 莎莉,是世界上有大规模的通货膨胀。 |
| 231 | So if you look in the United States, | 所以,如果你看看美国, |
| 232 | the average price of a new car is $50,000 US dollars. | 新车的平均价格为5万美元。 |
| 233 | In the UK, it's $48,000 US dollars. | 在英国,是48000美元. |
| 234 | In China, it's only $25,000. | 在中国,只有25000美元. |
| 235 | So in most of the world, it's inflation. | 所以在世界大部分地区,都是通货膨胀. |
| 236 | In China, we're facing | 在中国,我们面对的是 |
| 237 | deflation, and it's all because of Trump's trade war. | 通货紧缩,这都是因为特朗普的贸易战. |
| 238 | So all around the world, we're all suffering | 所以全世界我们都在受苦 |
| 239 | because of one man's decision to slap tariffs on China. | 因为一个人决定对中国施压 |
| 240 | So until the geopolitical situation eases, | 所以在地缘政治局势缓和之前 |
| 241 | until there's a detente between the US and China and America scraps the tariffs, I don't see the | 直到美国和中美之间缓和 取消关税,我不认为 |
| 242 | Chinese consumer spending anytime soon. | 中国消费者开支随时随地。 |
| 243 | Now, here's the thing, though. | 事情是这样的 |
| 244 | Chinese are sitting | 中国人坐着 |
| 245 | on $20 trillion US dollars of household savings. | 20万亿美元的家庭储蓄。 |
| 246 | So if they see value, they will spend money. | 所以如果他们看到价值,他们会花钱。 |
| 247 | Ralph Lauren sales are up 50% year on year last quarter, Adidas almost 20%. | 拉尔夫·劳伦的销量在上个季度上升了50%,阿迪达斯几乎增长了20%. |
| 248 | So when Chinese | 所以当中国人 |
| 249 | find something they want to buy, they will spend a premium. | 找到他们想要买的东西 他们会花一大笔钱的 |
| 250 | Unfortunately, right now, | 不幸的是,现在, |
| 251 | they're trading down in most categories from handbags to pants to coffee to cheaper alternatives | 他们从手提包到裤子 咖啡到便宜的替代品 都在交易 |
| 252 | because of this geopolitical overhang and inability for the Chinese government to push | 因为地缘政治的悬崖 以及中国政府无力推动 |
| 253 | through stimulus measures that get the economy going again. | 通过刺激措施,使经济恢复发展。 |
| 254 | But you talk about the issue of | 但你却在谈论 |
| 255 | inflation. | 通货膨胀。 |
| 256 | I mean, consumer price inflation, yes, is down and going down. | 我的意思是,消费物价通胀,是的, 是下降和下降。 |
| 257 | But when you look | 但当你看 |
| 258 | in the factories in China, inflation within the factories, producer price inflation is rising | 中国的工厂,工厂的通货膨胀, 生产者价格的上涨 |
| 259 | quite rapidly, isn't it? | 很快,不是吗? |
| 260 | And will that not follow through eventually and be passed on to | 最终不会被传递给 |
| 261 | Chinese consumers? | 中国消费者? |
| 262 | Or is that just passed on to other countries through exports? | 还是只是通过出口向其他国家转让? |
| 263 | Yeah, that's a great question. | 是啊,这是一个伟大的问题。 |
| 264 | So prices coming out of factories are going up. | 因此,工厂价格上升。 |
| 265 | And that's important | 这很重要 |
| 266 | for the rest of the world because 30% of the world's products are actually manufactured in | 全世界30%的产品都是在 |
| 267 | China still. | 中国依旧. |
| 268 | China is going to have a US$1.2 trillion trade deficit with the rest of the world. | 中国与世界其他地区的贸易赤字将达到1.2万亿美元。 |
| 269 | So these higher factory prices, what's happening is Chinese consumers aren't buying these products. | 因此,这些更高的工厂价格, 正在发生的情况是,中国消费者没有购买这些产品。 |
| 270 | They're taking a wait and see attitude before they open up their wallets. | 在打开钱包前,他们正在等待并看到态度. |
| 271 | But these products | 但是这些产品 |
| 272 | are being shipped out of factories from Guangdong and other provinces in China to the UK, to the | 正在从中国的广东和其他省份的工厂 运往英国 |
| 273 | United States at a high rate. | 美国的利率很高。 |
| 274 | And that's why I said because of the trade war, because of Trump's | 这就是为什么我说 因为贸易战争, 因为特朗普 |
| 275 | tariffs, everybody in the world is suffering from inflation except for Chinese who are suffering | 除了中国人遭受的通货膨胀之外, |
| 276 | from deflation. | 从通货紧缩。 |
| 277 | The other thing is gas prices because of Trump's folly with the Iran War. | 另一个原因是特朗普对伊朗战争的愚蠢. |
| 278 | That's also causing factory prices to go up. | 这也导致工厂价格上升. |
| 279 | Sean, we're going to have to leave it there, | 肖恩,我们得把它留在那 |
| 280 | but we appreciate your analysis. | 但我们很感激你的分析。 |
| 281 | It's really, really interesting. | 这真的很有趣。 |
| 282 | Sean Ryan there from China | 肖恩·瑞安从中国来 |
| 283 | Market Research Group. | 市场研究组. |
| 284 | Well, as China's focused on Singles Day here in the UK, we're already | 随着中国在英国的"单身日" 已经到了 |
| 285 | think about Christmas, a peak time of year for toy sales, culminating in around 23 toys sold | 想想圣诞节 玩具销售的高峰时间 最终有23件玩具出售 |
| 286 | every second in the week before Christmas. | 圣诞节前一周的每秒钟 |
| 287 | And there is evidence that this year families | 有证据表明今年的家庭 |
| 288 | are opting for more conventional toys in an effort to limit screen time with the number of toys sold | 正在选择更传统的玩具 以限制屏幕时间 以数量出售的玩具 |
| 289 | up to October 17% higher than the same time last year. | 到10月,比去年同期高17%。 |
| 290 | I'll get there. | 我会去的。 |
| 291 | That's according to | 这是根据 |
| 292 | from Sarkana. | 从萨克纳。 |
| 293 | Now, today, the Toy Retailers Association is unveiling its 15 winning toys | 今天,玩具零售商协会 正在揭幕15个成功的玩具 |
| 294 | for Christmas. | 圣诞节。 |
| 295 | And I'm delighted to say that Jeff Sheffield, Chairman of the Toy Retailers | 我很高兴地说,杰夫・谢菲尔德,玩具零售商主席 |
| 296 | Association, joins me now. | 协会,加入我。 |
| 297 | Morning. | 晨报. |
| 298 | We can't hear you, Jeff. | 我们听不到你,杰夫。 |
| 299 | Good morning. | 早上好,你好吗? |
| 300 | Morning, Sally. | 早上好,萨莉。 |
| 301 | Brilliant. | 聪明 |
| 302 | We have communication. | 我们有通讯 |
| 303 | So do tell what's top of the list this year. | 所以请说明今年的榜首。 |
| 304 | Well, we've selected 15 of what are great toys across all different types of categories, | 好了,我们已经选择了15种 伟大的玩具 在所有不同类型的类别, |
| 305 | taken from a list that was over 200 and selected by the best buyers of toys in the UK. | 取自一个超过200个 被英国最好的玩具买家选中的名单 |
| 306 | And we've | 而且我们已经 |
| 307 | put together a really compelling list that ranges from sort of everything down at £19 all the way | 列出一个非常有说服力的清单 从19英镑到19英镑 |
| 308 | up to £130, covering things like singing K-pop dolls or Gabi for real tigers or gooey, gooey | 最多130英镑, 覆盖诸如歌唱 K -pop 娃娃或加比 为真正的老虎或gooey,gooey |
| 309 | compounds, Lego sets, board games, things that are taking children off of their screens and playing | 组合,乐高设定,棋盘游戏,让孩子们离开屏幕和游戏的东西 |
| 310 | with these toys. | 这些玩具。 |
| 311 | And it's not just a one minute wonder, it's minutes, it's hours of play and | 这不仅仅是一分钟的奇迹, 几分钟,几个小时的游戏和 |
| 312 | bringing families together as well. | 也把家庭团结在一起。 |
| 313 | OK, sounds like a win-win. | 好吧,听起来像双赢。 |
| 314 | And how do you know that your | 你怎么会知道 |
| 315 | selection of 15 is the right ones? | 选择15是正确吗? |
| 316 | Do you get research from focus groups, from families, | 你从焦点小组,从家庭, |
| 317 | from parents as well, or is it just from the toy buyers? | 还是只是玩具买家送的? |
| 318 | Well, the range is curated. | 嗯,范围是全美的。 |
| 319 | It's quite | 这是相当的 |
| 320 | a debate to look into. | 一场辩论来调查。 |
| 321 | Looking at play patterns, looking at what's driving the market. | 看游戏模式,看什么是驱动市场. |
| 322 | There's | 还有 |
| 323 | a new toy story, a new movie this year. | 新的玩具故事 今年的新电影 |
| 324 | So we already know that the customers are buying into | 所以我们已经知道 顾客正在购买 |
| 325 | those properties. | 那些财产。 |
| 326 | So it makes sense that they would look for those key toys, those licenses. | 所以他们很会寻找那些关键玩具,这些许可证。 |
| 327 | And then you've got your evergreens like Lego, like Hot Wheels, you can see behind me, the large | 然后,你得到了你的常绿象乐高, 像热轮,你可以看到在我身后,大 |
| 328 | Ultimate Garage. | 极乐迦叶. |
| 329 | And then there's other core toy play patterns like badge making sets that people | 还有其他核心玩具的游戏模式 比如警徽制作 |
| 330 | were doing 40 years ago. | 40年前开始的 |
| 331 | Some of these patterns aren't new, they're just reinvented and coming | 有些模式不是新颖的,它们只是被重新发明了 |
| 332 | back. | 回来 |
| 333 | So crafting, that kind of thing. | 这么巧妙,那种东西。 |
| 334 | And what's the expectation for toy sales this year? | 今年卖玩具的预期值是多少? |
| 335 | How are | 怎么样 |
| 336 | toy retailers doing in general? | 玩具零售商做一般? |
| 337 | It's been a phenomenal year. | 这是一个惊人的一年。 |
| 338 | Toy sales are up 13% this year. | 今年玩具销量上升13%. |
| 339 | This is the fastest growth in over a decade. | 这是十多年来最快的增长。 |
| 340 | So toy retailers right now are enjoying the perfect | 所以现在的玩具零售商 正在享受完美的 |
| 341 | storm of trends. | 趋势风暴。 |
| 342 | You know, everybody knows about squishies. | 你知道,每个人都知道 关于squishies。 |
| 343 | 我们有Pokemon的卡片 | |
| 344 | 15. | 15个 |
| 345 | We all know that those are really hard to come by. | 我们都知道,这些确实很难通过。 |
| 346 | Things like Nido in that squishy category. | 类似尼多那类的 |
| 347 | So we already know there's some great fuel to drive those sales even further as we go into | 所以,我们已经知道 有一些伟大的燃料 驱动这些销售更进一步 当我们进入 |
| 348 | Christmas. | 圣诞节。 |
| 349 | Okay, well, let's hope it's a good one. | 好吧,让我们希望这是一个好的。 |
| 350 | Jeff, thank you for joining us so early this | 杰夫,谢谢你这么早加入我们 |
| 351 | morning. | 晨报. |
| 352 | Jeff Sheffield there from the Toy Retailers Association. | 来自玩具零售商协会的杰夫·谢菲尔德 |
| 353 | 50 sleeps, I'm told. | 50个睡眠,我被告知。 |
| 354 | That's if you get | 如果你得到的话 |
| 355 | sleep. | 睡觉。 |
| 356 | Thanks for joining us here on this program. | 谢谢你加入我们的节目 |
| 357 | I'll be back a little later with the very latest | 我等会再回来 带最新消息 |
| 358 | here on BBC News. | 英国广播公司新闻 |
| 359 | And don't forget our website. | 别忘了我们的网站 |
| 360 | The news app is available too. | 新闻应用也可用. |
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