（中英附文稿）担心被AI取代，却不知道该学什么？看清你该培养
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | What's going on like should we be afraid? | 我们该害怕什么? |
| 0:02 | I always recommend hope versus fear | 我总是推荐希望与恐惧 |
| 0:04 | Do you think we'll come to a world where we don't need that many people working? | 你认为我们会来到一个不需要那么多人工作的世界吗? |
| 0:09 | Do you think in our lifetime look it's possible today | 你觉得在我们的一生中,看起来今天是可能的 |
| 0:11 | I'm sitting down with reid hoffman co-founder of linkedin and someone who's on the forefront of building and using new ai tools | 我和Reid Hoffman联合创始人Lindin 和站在建设和使用新AI工具前列的人坐下 |
| 0:18 | I wanted to have a conversation with someone who's deep in it about what our future is going to look like when ai is going | 我想和深陷其中的人谈谈 当Ai去的时候我们的未来会是什么样子 |
| 0:23 | To be even more adopted in the world will ai take over our jobs will robots replace us in the near future | 要在世界上被更多的人收养 不久的将来 机器人就会取代我们的工作 |
| 0:30 | What will the world look like when machines grow smarter faster and more capable than ever before? | 当机器比以往更聪明、更有能力时,世界会是什么样子? |
| 0:35 | What should we be doing right now? | 我们现在该怎么办? |
| 0:37 | And what tools do we need to stay ahead? | 我们需要什么工具 保持领先? |
展开字幕全文（405 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | What's going on like should we be afraid? | 我们该害怕什么? |
| 2 | I always recommend hope versus fear | 我总是推荐希望与恐惧 |
| 3 | Do you think we'll come to a world where we don't need that many people working? | 你认为我们会来到一个不需要那么多人工作的世界吗? |
| 4 | Do you think in our lifetime look it's possible today | 你觉得在我们的一生中,看起来今天是可能的 |
| 5 | I'm sitting down with reid hoffman co-founder of linkedin and someone who's on the forefront of building and using new ai tools | 我和Reid Hoffman联合创始人Lindin 和站在建设和使用新AI工具前列的人坐下 |
| 6 | I wanted to have a conversation with someone who's deep in it about what our future is going to look like when ai is going | 我想和深陷其中的人谈谈 当Ai去的时候我们的未来会是什么样子 |
| 7 | To be even more adopted in the world will ai take over our jobs will robots replace us in the near future | 要在世界上被更多的人收养 不久的将来 机器人就会取代我们的工作 |
| 8 | What will the world look like when machines grow smarter faster and more capable than ever before? | 当机器比以往更聪明、更有能力时,世界会是什么样子? |
| 9 | What should we be doing right now? | 我们现在该怎么办? |
| 10 | And what tools do we need to stay ahead? | 我们需要什么工具 保持领先? |
| 11 | 让我们深入到这个谈话 与Reid Hoffman | |
| 12 | You guys welcome to silicon valley girl. | 欢迎来到硅谷女孩 |
| 13 | I have one of the most exciting guests today reid | 今天我有一个最激动的客人 Reid |
| 14 | Thank you so much for being here my pleasure | 非常感谢你能来,我很高兴 |
| 15 | You're amazing linkedin is one of the platforms where i'm very active and reid founded linkedin | 你是惊人的链接 是一个平台 我非常活跃 和Reid建立链接 |
| 16 | And now you're all about ai you created an ai version of yourself read ai | 而现在你却在说"Ai" 你创造了自己的Ai版本 读了Ai |
| 17 | Introduce yourself to everyone. | 自我介绍给大家 |
| 18 | Hello everyone. | 產 |
| 19 | I'm thrilled to be here today | 我很高兴今天能来 |
| 20 | I'm an ai generated version of reid hoffman his digital twin a lot of people watch my channel actually really worried | 我是一个AI生成的版本 Reid Hoffman 他的数字双胞胎 很多人看我的频道 其实真的很担心 |
| 21 | I'm worried as well. | 我也担心 |
| 22 | Sometimes when I look at the content ai generated, you know | 有时候当我看 内容AI生成,你知道 |
| 23 | Some people are getting replaced like editors used to cut those short videos. | 有些人被替换 就像编辑 用来剪辑短视频。 |
| 24 | Now we use an app to do that | 现在我们用一个应用程序来做 |
| 25 | What's going on? | 这是怎么回事? |
| 26 | Like should we be afraid? | 像我们应该害怕吗? |
| 27 | I always recommend hope versus fear and and curiosity and optimism versus, you know paranoia | 我总是建议希望与恐惧 好奇与乐观 |
| 28 | But it doesn't mean that it isn't painful to do the transition so | 但这并不意味着不痛苦 做这样的转变 |
| 29 | Yes, ai tools will be available in a small number of years for everything | 是的,Ai 工具 将在几年内为一切提供 |
| 30 | And there'll be ai tools for not just the thing i've created with read ai | 会有Ai工具 不只是我用读Ai创造的东西 |
| 31 | But like real time interaction with read ai and all the rest of that and that will happen | 但就像实时互动 阅读ai 和所有其它的, 这将发生 |
| 32 | But what we should be doing is figuring out how do we add? | 但我们应该做的是想出我们该怎么补充? |
| 33 | Our own creativity. | 我们自己的创造力。 |
| 34 | I mean you're one of the creators and how do we add our own creativity and amplify ourselves with the tools? | 我的意思是,你是创造者之一 我们如何增加我们自己的创造力 用工具扩大我们自己? |
| 35 | So like for example, of course you could have an ai just do all your short editing | 比如说,你当然可以有Ai 做你的短剪 |
| 36 | I bet you the ai doing your short editing is not as good as the ai plus a human doing it and a human | 我打赌做你短篇剪辑的Ai 并不像Ai 加上人类 |
| 37 | Using it can now do a whole bunch more than they before and they might be able to say | 用它现在可以做 一大堆比他们以前, 他们也许可以说 |
| 38 | Let's create 15 different versions and like test them to see which are good and do that and all of a sudden you have that | 让我们创造出15种不同的版本 测试它们 看看哪些是好的 做它,突然你得到了它 |
| 39 | Acceleration of superpower. | 加速超能力. |
| 40 | So fear is generally best converted to curiosity | 所以恐惧一般最好转化为好奇 |
| 41 | That doesn't mean it won't be difficult and that won't doesn't mean that you won't be learning new things | 这不代表不会很困难 也不意味着你不会学新东西 |
| 42 | Because ai will be learning new things and becoming better and better | 因为Ai会学习新的事物 变得更好和更好 |
| 43 | Exactly, but it's part of the reason why I encourage people to go play with it | 没错,但这也是我鼓励人们去玩的原因之一 |
| 44 | Go try it because as they realize it they go. | 去试试吧,因为他们意识到他们走了。 |
| 45 | Oh, I can still do these things | 哦,我还能做这些事 |
| 46 | Using ai so, you know, for example if i'm writing an essay | 使用ai 这样,你知道, 例如如果我写一篇论文 |
| 47 | As opposed to starting with a blank page i'm probably going to start with a gbd4 prompt | 而不是从空白页开始 我可能会从gbd4提示开始 |
| 48 | Right and say hey i'm thinking about this this this this this i got this | 对了,嘿,嘿,我想着这个这个这个这个这个这个这个这个 |
| 49 | Okay | 还好 |
| 50 | now this is what i'm going to start working from in terms of how to do and that by the way just accelerates me and makes my | 现在,这就是我要开始 如何做的工作, 顺便说一句,只是加快我,使我 |
| 51 | Ability to bring in my intelligence as opposed to having to type a lot and stare at the blank page | 能够带进我的智力 而不是不得不打很多字 盯着空白页 |
| 52 | I can move faster and get to more interesting things. | 我可以走得更快 更有趣的事情。 |
| 53 | And so | 这样 |
| 54 | it's a | 这是一个 |
| 55 | be | 为: |
| 56 | Curious and hopeful, but doesn't mean don't expect, you know potholes | 好奇和充满希望,但并不意味着不期望, 你知道坑洞 |
| 57 | transitions | 过渡 |
| 58 | difficulties | 困难 |
| 59 | Those will be there too | 那些也会在那里 |
| 60 | There are some skills that we need to learn in the next couple of years to not be left behind obviously like testing apps | 有些技能,我们需要学习 在接下来的几年 不被抛在后面 很明显,像测试应用 |
| 61 | But also i've heard from someone that it's getting a lot easier to code | 但我也听说有人说 密码越来越容易了 |
| 62 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}就像我能学一些基本的东西 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}用副驾驶工具就能帮我 | |
| 63 | Would you suggest doing that or just wait another couple of years when we don't even need coding and we just talk to | 你会建议这样做 还是再等几年 当我们甚至不需要编码,我们只是说话 |
| 64 | well, so I think within | 我心里想着 |
| 65 | This year 2025 it'll quickly become that every engineer is using at least one copilot agent | 今年2025年,每个工程师 都会使用至少一个副驾驶代理 |
| 66 | And that's part of what professional is | 这是专业的一部分 |
| 67 | And I think perhaps by the end of next year 2026 | 我想也许到2026年底 |
| 68 | All of us will have a lightweight coding assistant. | 我们都有一个轻量级编码助理。 |
| 69 | That doesn't mean it'll code the great iphone app for you or it will | 这并不意味着它会 编码伟大的iphone应用软件给你 或者它会 |
| 70 | You know invent that that game that you've been thinking of | 你知道你一直在想的那个游戏 |
| 71 | But it will help you do things like research where you say hey bring these | 但它会帮助你做一些事情 像研究,在那里你说,嘿,带这些 |
| 72 | multiple information sources and documents and put them all together and | 多个信息来源和文件,将它们汇集在一起, |
| 73 | Generate a list of questions and then generate some provisional answers and it will help you with that and then the coding element will help | 生成一个问题列表, 然后生成一些临时答案, 这将帮助您做到这一点, 然后编码元素会帮助 |
| 74 | Pull all that stuff together and that will be part of superpower that you and I will now have in that | 把这些东西拉在一起, 这将是超级力量的一部分 你和我现在将拥有 |
| 75 | Generally speaking ai don't suggest waiting because part of what you want to be doing, you know | 一般来说,我并不建议等待 因为你想要做的一部分,你知道的 |
| 76 | Just like any new technological revolution | 就像任何新的技术革命 |
| 77 | Whether when youtube was happening when the internet's happening the folks who go and adopt and play with it early | 网络发生时Youtube有没有出现 早点去领养和玩的人 |
| 78 | Then have a differential edge in the change that means in the industry in their society. | 然后,在变化中有一个差别的边缘 意味着工业在他们的社会。 |
| 79 | And so even though | 虽然如此 |
| 80 | Three years from now the coding tools will be and agents will be much better than they are now | 三年后 编码工具会比现在更好 |
| 81 | The people who started playing with them now will probably be the people who know how to use them and deploy them much more comfortably | 现在开始和他们玩的人 很可能是知道如何使用和部署他们的人 |
| 82 | early | 早点 |
| 83 | I want to quickly pause here and say that I love how read sees potential of ai adoption as a mom of two | 我想马上停下来说,我喜欢阅读如何看待 收养作为两个孩子的母亲的潜力 |
| 84 | And a creative entrepreneur | 一个有创造力的企业家 |
| 85 | I deeply understand the need to stay ahead of the curve and every day | 我深知必须保持 领先曲线和每一天 |
| 86 | I am looking for ways to work smarter not harder and ai tools have been a game changer for my productivity | 我在寻找更聪明而不是更努力的工作方式 工具已经改变了我的生产力 |
| 87 | But with hundreds of ai tools launching every single day | 但每天都有数百个AI工具推出 |
| 88 | Like I open my instagram feed every morning and there is this new ai app with a viral effect | 就像我每天早上打开我的Instagram饲料 还有这个有病毒效应的新AI应用程序 |
| 89 | So the question is how do you know which ones are worth your time and money? | 所以问题是 你怎么知道哪些值得你花时间和钱? |
| 90 | That's why i'm excited to share hubspot's comprehensive ai tool kit guide their free resource cuts through the noise to bring you | 这就是为什么我兴奋地分享集线器的Ai综合工具箱 引导他们自由的资源削减 通过噪音带来你 |
| 91 | 40 plus carefully vetted ai tools that actually deliver results inside you'll discover strategic combinations of free and paid tools | 40+经过仔细审查的AI工具,在内部实际交付成果,你会发现免费和付费工具的战略组合. |
| 92 | That multiply your productivity step-by-step guidance to automate your most time-consuming tasks and expert recommendations | 使你的生产力逐步增加,使你最费时的任务和专家建议自动化 |
| 93 | Tailored for freelancers startups and growing businesses don't waste time and money testing dozens of tools | 适合自由职业者创业和成长的企业 不浪费时间和金钱测试数十种工具 |
| 94 | When experts have done all the work with this guide you can start building your optimal ai toolkit | 当专家用本指南完成了所有工作后,您就可以开始构建最佳AI工具包 |
| 95 | By the way, this guide is completely free and it could save you countless hours and thousands of dollars in unnecessary software cost | 顺便说一下,这个指南是完全免费的, 它可以节省你无数小时和数千美元 不必要的软件成本 |
| 96 | If you're ready to transform your workflow and integrate ai into your everyday life look in the description below download the guide now | 如果你准备好改变工作流程 将Ai融入你的日常生活 请看下面的描述 |
| 97 | Enjoy the ai revolution on your terms and thank you so much hubspot for sponsoring this video | 以你的名义享受Ai革命 非常感谢你赞助这段视频 |
| 98 | We're talking about like two years. | 我们谈论的就像两年。 |
| 99 | Yes, of course ai will not be able to come up with an app | 是的,当然Ai不会想出一个应用程序 |
| 100 | But i'm thinking that in 15 years | 但我想在15年之内 |
| 101 | I will tell ai like come up with a business idea code an app or a website start selling figure out the marketing strategy | 我会告诉Ai喜欢想出一个商业创意代码 应用程序或网站 开始卖出营销策略 |
| 102 | Like what should I tell my daughters? | 我该怎么跟女儿们说? |
| 103 | What should they be learning now? | 他们现在应该学什么? |
| 104 | Should they be acquiring academic knowledge or just learning social skills because this is what we'll have left for like | 如果他们学到了学术知识 或只是学习社会技能 因为这是我们剩下的 |
| 105 | Well, I think it's always good to learn social skills. | 我觉得学习社交技能总是好的 |
| 106 | But for example take that thing over you say say everyone is going to gbd4 and say | 但举个例子,你把那个东西 说每个人都要去gbd4,说 |
| 107 | Give me an idea for a lemonade stand business. | 给我一个柠檬水摊生意的点子 |
| 108 | Well, it'll give them all the same idea | 那会给他们同样的想法 |
| 109 | But it has the memory feature. | 但它有记忆的特征。 |
| 110 | So well, but it has a memory feature for you | 好极了,但是它有你的记忆功能 |
| 111 | It's not necessarily taking that memory feature for other folks | 这不一定是给别人看的 |
| 112 | It depends a little bit and depends on how the learning and training but generally speaking say all million five-year-olds | 这取决于学习和训练方式 但一般说来,所有的五岁小孩 |
| 113 | Were equally provisioned with gbd4 | 平等供应gbd4 |
| 114 | Which lemonade stands are going to work? | 哪个柠檬水摊会起作用? |
| 115 | Well the the five-year-olds who think oh | 那些五岁的孩子想啊 |
| 116 | I should make my lemonade stand with hello kitty, right? | 我应该让我的柠檬水站 与你好小猫,对不对? |
| 117 | Like I I know I know my neighborhood | 就像我知道我知道我的邻居 |
| 118 | I know my people really like hello kitty | 我知道我的人真的很喜欢小猫咪 |
| 119 | So i'll go in and i'll prompt it for what would a hello kitty, you know lemonade stand be and so | 所以,我会进去,我会促它 什么会一个你好小猫, 你知道柠檬汁站是,所以 |
| 120 | That engagement and learning how to use the tool just like learning how to use an iphone or learning how to use | 参与和学习如何使用工具 就像学习如何使用iphone 或者学习如何使用 |
| 121 | You know a computer learning how to use | 你知道计算机如何使用 |
| 122 | You know kind of and obviously | 你知道那种显然 |
| 123 | You know photoshop and everything else are now going to be much easier because one of the things ai is is it's like | 你知道照片店和所有的东西 现在要容易得多 因为一件事是,它就像 |
| 124 | The meta tool and so it'll as opposed to having to learn all the details of photoshop | 元工具,所以它会 而不是必须学习所有的细节 图片店 |
| 125 | You can just use the ai to say well | 你可以用Ai来形容 |
| 126 | I'm really thinking about something that has this kind of look and this kind of light effect | 我真的在想一些东西 有这种外观 和这种光效应 |
| 127 | Can you do that and it'll figure out how to do that for you? | 你能做到这一点,它会想出如何为你做到这一点? |
| 128 | Yeah, as opposed to all the mechanics so that kind of | 是啊,相对于所有的机械 所以那种 |
| 129 | Visual thinking or you know creativity or tool use is the thing you also | 视觉思考或者你知道创造力或者工具的使用 也是你需要的 |
| 130 | Want to be instilling with a kind of a direction of always be learning but fundamentals like mathematics | 想要灌输一种方向 总是学习,但基础 像数学 |
| 131 | Basic coding is still gonna be I think that the coding mindset is still useful. | 基本编码仍然是我认为编码的心态仍然有用。 |
| 132 | I don't think yes | 我不这么认为 |
| 133 | I don't think so about the mindset the way we think yes exactly | 我不这么认为 关于思维方式 我们的想法是准确的 |
| 134 | It's a little bit like you know people were terrified when calculators came up that people would stop learning math | 有点像你知道 人们害怕 当计算器出现 人们停止学习数学 |
| 135 | It's like no no, but you stop learning the okay | 这就像没有, 但你停止学习好 |
| 136 | You know I have this whole process of how I carry the wand and do all the rest of | 你知道,我有一个整个过程 如何携带魔杖 做所有剩下的 |
| 137 | I understand how it works | 我理解这是怎样运作的 |
| 138 | But I use the calculator or now the computer or the phone to do the math, but I still understand math | 但我用计算器或电脑或电话来计算, 但我还是懂数学 |
| 139 | I still need to understand math. | 我还是需要理解数学 |
| 140 | I still think about math in different ways. | 我仍然以不同的方式思考数学。 |
| 141 | I just have not um | 我只是没有,嗯 |
| 142 | Like the job of what I am is a human calculating machine | 就像我的工作是人类计算机器 |
| 143 | That job doesn't exist. | 那份工作并不存在。 |
| 144 | Yeah, do you think we'll come to a world where we don't need that many people working? | 是啊,你认为我们会来到一个 我们不需要这么多人工作的世界吗? |
| 145 | You know, it's possible. | 你知道,这是可能的。 |
| 146 | Um, I don't think it's actually in fact any near | 嗯,我不认为这是实际上 任何接近 |
| 147 | Uh any near time we see the trends like silicon valley working four days people are wednesday. | 呃,任何接近时间,我们看到趋势 像硅谷工作四天的人是 wednesday。 |
| 148 | They're like already | 他们就像已经 |
| 149 | Preparing for the weekend. | 准备过周末 |
| 150 | Well, none of the companies what I see like in bars, etc. | 在酒吧里我所看到的公司都没有 |
| 151 | They're full wednesdays and thursdays | 他们都是满日的婚礼和星期四 |
| 152 | well, uh, the bars may be full but none of the | 嗯,呃,酒吧可能已经满了 但是没有 |
| 153 | uh companies that i'm | 公司,我是谁 |
| 154 | Uh working with are working less than 80 hour weeks. | 共事时间不到80小时 |
| 155 | Okay, but those are startups or yes | 好吧,但那些是初创或是的 |
| 156 | But like bigger companies | 但像大公司一样 |
| 157 | But I think bigger companies are also working their way back through the pandemic | 但我认为大公司也在努力回击大流行 |
| 158 | it's part of the white reason why they return to office and all the rest of this in terms of it and | 这是他们复职的 白色原因的一部分 其余的这些 就其和 |
| 159 | And I think that the you know, for example, germany is an example of an industrialized society that went to a very rigorously | 我认为,你所知道的,比如说,德国是一个工业化社会的例子, 它走向一个非常严格的。 |
| 160 | Maintained number of hours work week and I think it's possible | 每周工作时数维持不变 我觉得有可能 |
| 161 | but I think that because | 但我认为是因为 |
| 162 | You know human beings tend to | 你知道人类往往 |
| 163 | Want to go do epic things work really hard sometimes make themselves wealthy | 想去做史诗般的事情 工作真的很辛苦 有时会让自己发财 |
| 164 | You know spend a whole bunch of time on a youtube channel | 在Youtube频道上花了很多时间 |
| 165 | Etc, etc that I think that that a large number of people will still be very engaged | Etc等等,我认为 很多人仍然会非常参与 |
| 166 | so I don't think it's it's necessarily a | 所以我不认为这是必然的 |
| 167 | A quick general retirement | 一个快速的一般退休 |
| 168 | So you're not thinking because my thought was like if it if ai continues to develop that fast | 所以,你不是在想,因为我的想法 就像如果ai继续发展的速度 |
| 169 | We're going to have universal basic income | 我们要实现全民基本收入 |
| 170 | And then some people are going to work and some people are going to just enjoy lives. | 然后有些人会工作,有些人会享受生活。 |
| 171 | Do you think that's that might be reality? | 你觉得那是现实吗? |
| 172 | I think people like | 我觉得人们喜欢 |
| 173 | competing for things look it's possible like if you got to a point where | 竞相争夺事物 看起来像如果你到了一个点 |
| 174 | You had enough | 你受够了 |
| 175 | You know kind of the science fiction star trek kind of future where you had enough | 你知道那种科幻星际旅行 那种你有足够的未来 |
| 176 | You know kind of robots that were producing everything produced, you know, all of our material needs robots who? | 你知道那种机器人 正在生产所有生产的东西, 你知道,我们所有的材料需要机器人谁? |
| 177 | Yes, but your kids do that. | 是的,但你的孩子这样做。 |
| 178 | Do you agree? | 你同意吗? |
| 179 | And it's possible | 这有可能 |
| 180 | But by the way, if you even if you think about like how long it will take to build all those robots | 但顺便说一句,如果你想着 建造这些机器人需要多长时间 |
| 181 | Well, like I don't know it's so fast like i've been in silica mela for 10 years san francisco full of self-driving cars | 我好像在西里卡梅拉呆了10年似的 满是自驾车 |
| 182 | 是的,10年前的事了。 10 years ago. | |
| 183 | I couldn't imagine that. | 我无法想象 |
| 184 | Yes, although there's still a limited number of those cars that are way modes | 是的,虽然这些车型仍然有限 |
| 185 | There's still many more ubers and many more lifts. | 仍有许多纽贝和更多的升降机. |
| 186 | I'm just saying there's physical constraints in the creation of that world | 我只是说,在创造这个世界时, 存在着物理上的局限性 |
| 187 | That's one of the reasons why people are like because I talk to the same silicon valley people you do | 这就是人们喜欢的原因之一 因为我跟你的硅谷人说话 |
| 188 | And it's like we're gonna have universal basic income in five years like no chance | 五年后我们就会有全民基本收入了 |
| 189 | So do you think in our lifetime? | 你觉得我们一辈子都这样吗? |
| 190 | Not impossible | 不会吧 |
| 191 | Look in one hand is like all the physical constraints of building everything that matters, you know | 单看一手 就像所有物理上的制约 建筑一切重要,你知道的 |
| 192 | Cars and clothing and houses and you know all the rest of stuff | 汽车,衣服,房子,你知道所有的东西 |
| 193 | But then also it gets to | 但后来它得到 |
| 194 | You know part of what you know, kind of the human impulse is | 你知道你所知道的 人类的冲动是 |
| 195 | Like we compete as you know when a lot of people we work with and work alongside here | 就像我们竞争,你知道当 很多人,我们一起工作 并在这里工作 |
| 196 | You know aren't just content to say well, i've got a house that's in | 你知道不只是满足于说好, 我有房子在 |
| 197 | You know downtown berlin game that's you know, two bedrooms, you know, I want the big house in athelton, you know | 你知道市中心伯林游戏,你知道, 两个卧室, 你知道,我想要大房子 在阿特顿,你知道 |
| 198 | And so that kind of competing still happens and so people will still have that as kind of an impulse and want that in various ways | 所以这种竞争仍然发生 所以人们仍然会有这种冲动 |
| 199 | And you see it not just in economics | 你不仅在经济学中看到 |
| 200 | but also of course in sports teams and and all the rest of this and | 当然,在运动队 和所有这一切, |
| 201 | The intention economy and all of this and so I I tend to think that like there's also this human factor | 意向节约和这一切 所以我倾向于认为 也有这样的人的因素 |
| 202 | That isn't the oh, i'm just going to be happy, you know kind of | 这不是Oh,我只是要 快乐,你知道那种 |
| 203 | reading books gardening | 阅读图书园艺 |
| 204 | etc, and so I I tend to think that the | 所以我倾向于认为 |
| 205 | That the the kind of we are all | 我们就是这样 |
| 206 | one | 一个 |
| 207 | Nation of retirees or one species of retirees | 退休人员或一种退休人员的国籍 |
| 208 | I think that's almost certainly not the future | 我认为这几乎肯定不是未来 |
| 209 | The question is how does it blend between it and obviously the people who are | 问题是它是如何融合 与明显的人 |
| 210 | Who are working hard want to have a differential reward for it? | 谁在努力工作,想为此得到不同的奖励? |
| 211 | They want something that that plays into it. | 他们想要一些能起作用的东西 |
| 212 | That doesn't necessarily mean that there isn't ubi | 这不一定意味着没有UBI |
| 213 | but like | 但喜欢 |
| 214 | You may even need to be what is called cbi | 你甚至需要成为所谓的CBI |
| 215 | Which is conditional basic income because in order to still be engaged in society | 这是有条件的基本收入 因为为了继续参与社会 |
| 216 | It's like well, no you can have a ubi | 这就像很好,不 你可以有一个ubi |
| 217 | But you have to spend at least 10 hours a week doing community service doing something that you know | 但你每周至少要花10个小时做社区服务 做一些你知道的事 |
| 218 | Helps the local seniors or helps the local schools or something like that. | 帮助当地老年人或帮助当地学校或类似的东西. |
| 219 | So you're engaged in society and you're invested in it's really important | 所以,你参与社会,你投资 这是非常重要的 |
| 220 | Yes. | 对 |
| 221 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 222 | So | 这么说 |
| 223 | What the shape is I think is still very very tbd and further out than most of the technology visionaries will have | 外形是,我认为仍然 是非常TBD, 并且更进一步 比大多数技术 视觉家会 |
| 224 | That makes me you know, I feel better. | 让我知道,我感觉好多了。 |
| 225 | Okay, let's talk about ownership | 好吧,我们来谈谈所有权 |
| 226 | What I noticed like my startup we built a search engine for study abroad programs | 我所注意到的,就像我的启动 我们建立了一个搜索引擎 学习国外程序 |
| 227 | If you ask me now like would I build something listen in 2025? | 如果你现在问我 喜欢我在2025年建造什么 听? |
| 228 | Of course not. | 当然不是。 |
| 229 | I will just build an ai bot | 我会造一个机器人 |
| 230 | So it looks like a lot of business ideas, especially online. | 因此,它看起来像很多商业想法,特别是在线. |
| 231 | There is you only have like two or three months before | 你只有两三个月前 |
| 232 | Uh open ai comes up with another model that solves your problem. | 呃,开放AI 提出另一个模型 解决你的问题。 |
| 233 | Yes | 对 |
| 234 | Do you think there is a chance to build like a company that's bigger than the mega seven? | 你觉得有机会像一个 比巨型七号更大的公司那样建设吗? |
| 235 | Oh, uh almost for sure. | 哦,嗯,几乎是肯定的。 |
| 236 | Uh, I continue to invest. | 我继续投资 |
| 237 | Um, I continue looking uh to do that | 嗯,我继续寻找呃做 |
| 238 | And I think there will be I think we're you know, whatever count you have five seven | и稱穦Τ и稱и琌笵 ┮Τ计常琌5 7 |
| 239 | I think there will be 10 to 15 over the next five to 10 years. | 我认为今后5至10年内会有10至15人。 |
| 240 | I think we're broadening out that way | 我想我们是在扩大范围 |
| 241 | now you don't do it by | 现在你不这样做 |
| 242 | Building a company that is like i'm going to build the new iphone company like I just have a new idea for an iphone like | 建立一个公司,就像我要去 建设新的iphone公司 就像我有一个新想法 一个iphone喜欢 |
| 243 | It isn't like once a company is really established in its position. | 这不像是公司真正成立的时候 |
| 244 | You don't actually take it from behind | 你其实不是从后面拿的 |
| 245 | What you do is the technology gives you a different angle and you start building from something else like who would have who would have thought | 你做的是技术给你一个不同的角度, 你开始从别的东西建设 像谁会想到 |
| 246 | Five to ten years ago that nvidia would be the oh, yeah. | 五到十年前,nvidia会是哦,是的。 |
| 247 | Yes | 对 |
| 248 | right, so it's different angles by which it happens now, um, | 对,所以是不同的角度 现在发生,嗯, |
| 249 | and the fact that you know, there's | 而事实上,你知道,有 |
| 250 | You know going to be a limited number of what are called frontier models, you know the largest scale ai models | 你知道会是有限数量 所谓的前沿模型, 你知道最大的规模AI模型 |
| 251 | Doesn't mean that there aren't room for mega ai startup companies because it's not only the technology model | 不代表没有巨型Ai启动公司的余地 因为它不仅仅是技术模型 |
| 252 | It's not the only thing that matters. | 这不是唯一的问题。 |
| 253 | It's kind of like how is it productized? | 有点像如何生产? |
| 254 | How is it integrated into people's lives? | 如何融入人们的生活? |
| 255 | What's your go-to-market strategy? | 你的上市策略是什么? |
| 256 | How do those things work and you can still create businesses that have network effects marketplaces other kinds of things that can be | 这些东西是如何运作的,你仍然可以创建 具有网络效应的企业市场 其他种类的东西可以是 |
| 257 | in fact very big and so | 其实很大,所以 |
| 258 | 所以我知道我们在Greylock | |
| 259 | Myself, we're kind of looking at all of the things that | 我个人,我们是在看所有的东西 |
| 260 | Could create the next big mega companies and that's generally speaking what you're looking best at now that being said | 可以创建下一个大型公司 一般来说 这就是你现在最看好的 |
| 261 | If someone came along now and said | 如果有人来了,现在说 |
| 262 | I'm going to try to build the next open ai from scratch right now. | 我现在要努力从头开始建造下一个开放的AI. |
| 263 | It's like well | 感觉好极了 |
| 264 | There is an open ai that's doing a really really good job | 有个空洞的Ai做得很好 |
| 265 | What should entrepreneurs look at what industries the thing that I had predicted? | 企业家们应该看看 我所预测的行业是什么? |
| 266 | You know 15 months ago when I was talking to my partners at greylock | 你知道15个月前 我在Graylock和我的合伙人谈话时 |
| 267 | Is that we were going to see a whole bunch of enterprise apps. | 就是我们要看到一大堆企业应用软件 |
| 268 | We're going to see | 我们去看看 |
| 269 | You know kind of workflow productivity coding apps | 你知道那种工作流程生产率编码应用程序 |
| 270 | Legal assistance medical assistance tutors all that stuff all which is great and I said look | 法律援助 医疗援助辅导 这一切是伟大的,我说看 |
| 271 | I'm happy to invest in a bunch of these things. | 我很乐意投资这些东西 |
| 272 | It's not a billion dollar company. | 亦非亿万公司. |
| 273 | Well | 这个嘛 |
| 274 | Things don't start as a billion dollar company. | 事情不是以亿万公司开始的. |
| 275 | It's the question of of where how big and strategic and economic do these businesses get? | 问题是这些企业有多大的,战略的和经济的? |
| 276 | and so | 就这样 |
| 277 | now for me | 现在给我 |
| 278 | I tend to like to be surprised by the entrepreneur who's thinking in a new direction that most people aren't thinking | 我往往喜欢惊讶于一个企业家, 他正在想一个新的方向, 大多数人没有在想 |
| 279 | It was like one of the reasons I like the first investment that I brought to greylock was airbnb | 就像我第一次投资的原因之一 我带给Graylock是空心的 |
| 280 | Right because it's similar things like everyone like literally like my partners are like | 因为它是相似的事物 像每个人都 像字面上像我的伴侣一样 |
| 281 | People are going to rent a room or a house from other people like is this real? | 人们会租一间房子 或像其他人一样的房子 这是真的吗? |
| 282 | And that kind of thing and so I similarly like to look for those kinds of things with an ai | 那种东西,所以我同样喜欢 寻找这种东西与ai |
| 283 | It's like what's something about the use of ai that most of the entrepreneurs? | 这就像什么的东西 关于使用AI 大部分的企业家? |
| 284 | Who are all heading towards doing coding assistance or productivity apps or new security paradigms? | 谁来做编码援助或生产力应用或新的安全模式? |
| 285 | Haven't quite gotten | 还没到 |
| 286 | That's like that new way of thinking and it's one of the reasons why like for example when we're talking about your daughter is that | 这就像一种新的思维方式 也是我们谈论你女儿的原因之一 |
| 287 | the role for creativity the role for you know kind of uh | 创造力这个角色 你知道那种呃 |
| 288 | Human, you know understanding humanities and so it is still actually in fact very important because predicting what those | 人类,你知道理解人文科学, 所以事实上它仍然非常重要 因为预测那些 |
| 289 | Markets might be what people might want at scale. | 市场可能是人们想要的规模。 |
| 290 | Yeah is extremely important. | 是啊,这是极其重要的。 |
| 291 | And that's the kind of feeling | 这就是那种感觉 |
| 292 | Of like the markets | 就像市场 |
| 293 | Uh, some that would be like completely changed by ai and that's the opportunity. | 一些会像完全改变 由AI,这是机会。 |
| 294 | Oh, um | 瓳 垛 |
| 295 | Look an obvious one | 看一个明显的 |
| 296 | Is kind of looking at the set of different categories | 是那种看 一组不同的类别 |
| 297 | that people aren't | 人们不是 |
| 298 | You know per se thinking about you know, whether it's marketplaces or | 你知道自己在想 你知道,无论是市场还是市场 |
| 299 | networks of very human networks of various sorts and saying hey can ai do something interesting here and you know, I don't usually when i'm | 各种人类网络的网络, 说嘿,Ai可以做一些有趣的事情 在这里,你知道,我通常不 当我 |
| 300 | Ideating on ideas say them and up. | 思想的思维 说他们和起来。 |
| 301 | Okay | 还好 |
| 302 | Of course, yeah | 当然,是的 |
| 303 | My top videos are like top 10 business ideas or whatever | 我顶级的视频就像十大商业创意之类的 |
| 304 | But like it's just interesting where you're looking like health care or education in general | 但就像它只是有趣的 你看起来像保健或教育 在总体上 |
| 305 | Like if we're talking not about you know, entrepreneurship | 就像我们不是在谈论企业 |
| 306 | But like in general where do you feel like the biggest change is going to happen with ai like what's going to be transformed? | 但总而言之,你觉得最大的变化 会发生在Ai身上 就像要改变什么? |
| 307 | I'm hoping health care. | 我希望医疗。 |
| 308 | Well, I think health care is an obvious and very important one. | 我认为医疗保健是显而易见和非常重要的。 |
| 309 | Think about | 考虑一下 |
| 310 | um | 垛 |
| 311 | We have the technology today | 我们今天有技术 |
| 312 | To have a medical assistant on your smartphone. | 在你的智能手机上有一个医疗助理。 |
| 313 | That's better than your average doctor. | 这比一般医生好 |
| 314 | That's available | 这是可用的 |
| 315 | 24 by 7 to everyone on the smartphone that runs it under you know, call it a couple dollars an hour | 24比7呼叫所有在智能手机下运行的人 每小时数美元 |
| 316 | In terms of compute costs to run it | 在计算运行成本方面 |
| 317 | We should get that as soon as possible. | 我们应该尽快拿到 |
| 318 | That doesn't mean doctors out of work | 这不代表医生失业 |
| 319 | There's all kinds of things for doctors to do because among other things | 医生有各种各样的事情要做 因为除了别的以外 |
| 320 | The app may say hey, these are the three things and most probability from these things | 应用程序可能说,嘿,这是三件事 和最可能从这些东西 |
| 321 | But then the doctor knows oh | 但医生知道 |
| 322 | These are the things that i'm seeing in the symptom that you didn't tell the ai | 这些是我在症状中看到的 你没有告诉AI |
| 323 | That's actually really important that we need to do | 这其实很重要,我们需要做 |
| 324 | There's all kinds of and a doctor can spend more time with patients because the a like hey | 医生可以花更多的时间和病人在一起 因为像嘿嘿嘿 |
| 325 | Look, I had this whole conversation with my medical assistant and here's what I came up with and goes | 听着,我跟我的助理医生谈过了 这就是我想出来的 |
| 326 | Oh, well, let's spend more time on this one and spend some time because that's all faster given the economics of it | 哦,好吧,让我们花更多的时间 在这个,并花一些时间,因为 这一切更快,因为它的经济学 |
| 327 | So I think that is clearly going to happen should happen should happen as fast as possible | 所以我觉得这显然应该发生 应该尽快发生 |
| 328 | Another one as a tutor for every subject on every age and to make this kind of like a personal comment like i've always been | 又一个作为每个年龄的每个学科的辅导员 并且使这种 像我一直以来的个人评论 |
| 329 | Curious to understand quantum mechanics better because you know | 更了解量子力学很好奇 因为你知道 |
| 330 | We have this whole new world of quantum computing and i'm trying to understand it and I can | 我们有一个全新的量子计算世界 而我正在试图理解它,我可以 |
| 331 | Repeat the stories that you know, we read but but understanding it in some depth | 重复你所知道的故事, 我们读了,但理解的深度 |
| 332 | Is one of the things I've always wanted to do. | 这是我一直想做的事之一 |
| 333 | Well now I have a tutor that's infinitely patient | 现在我有个家教 很有耐心 |
| 334 | They can say oh here's the thing that you need to understand | 他们可以说,哦,这是你需要理解的事情 |
| 335 | These are the questions you have what the observer effect in quantum mechanics is and here are some of the ways to think about it | 这些是你们在量子力学中的观察效应 以及一些思考的方法 |
| 336 | Yeah, that makes sense. | 是啊,这是有道理的。 |
| 337 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 338 | I'm gonna wrap up with two final questions. | 最后我要问两个问题 |
| 339 | Can you tell me? | 你能告诉我吗? |
| 340 | What are your three favorite ai apps? | 你最喜欢的三个AI应用程序是什么? |
| 341 | my three favorite ai apps | 我最喜欢的三个AI应用程序 |
| 342 | I will say four. | 我将说四. |
| 343 | All right, in part because | 好吧,部分原因是 |
| 344 | You know my own inflection pi has to be one of them. | 你知道,我个人的缺陷必是其中之一。 |
| 345 | So | 这么说 |
| 346 | three in addition | 3个 |
| 347 | 聊天 gbt | |
| 348 | From kind of like a research assistant | 有点像研究助理 |
| 349 | mid-journey from the creation and thinking of bringing me into kind of visual imagination and | 中间的旅程 从创造和思考 让我进入一种视觉想象 |
| 350 | And kind of being able to create things visually which I never was able to do before | 和那种能够创造的东西 视觉上,我从来没有做到 |
| 351 | and then | 接着 |
| 352 | You know partially because i've been thinking a lot about we as everyday people are all going to have a coding co-pilot | 你知道部分是因为我一直在想我们 每天都有人会有一个编码副驾驶 |
| 353 | So i've been playing a lot with microsoft's co-pilot and coding and getting myself back into that to understand how this is going to transform | 所以我一直玩很多 微软的副驾驶和编码 并让自己回到那个 来理解如何改变 |
| 354 | Everyone's use of phones and computers. | 每个人都使用电话和电脑。 |
| 355 | Yeah, and the fourth is yours. | 是的,而第四个是你的。 |
| 356 | Yes inflections pi which part of it was | 是的,表示Pi的哪个部分 |
| 357 | Training a chat bot to be as good at eq as it is at iq | 训练一个聊天机器人 和在iq一样擅长eq |
| 358 | To be kind of engaged and warm in the conversation and and I think we've actually had a great industry-wide | 有点热衷于对话 我觉得我们整个行业都很棒 |
| 359 | Impact because I think as people have looked at it, they've gone. | 影响是因为我认为人们已经看了它, 他们走了。 |
| 360 | Oh, that's really important | 这很重要 |
| 361 | We're going to add some of that into what we're doing. | 我们准备把其中的一些加进去。 |
| 362 | Okay, and the last question is because you're doing | 好吧,最后一个问题是 因为你正在做 |
| 363 | The ai version of you which looks really realistic now that I see in real life | 现实生活中你看起来很现实 |
| 364 | Because then show me all the videos should everyone think about creating | 因为然后给我看所有的视频 每个人都应该考虑创造 |
| 365 | An ai version of themselves and have you thought about like have you have your opinion of your legacy changed once you've created? | 你对遗产的看法有没有改变? |
| 366 | The ai because it can live longer than you can live for years. | 因为它能活得比你活得长 |
| 367 | Although at the moment | 虽然目前 |
| 368 | My ai agents live shorter than me because we're revising them so much. | 我的助理探员比我还短 因为我们在修订 |
| 369 | And so so right now they're actually it's it's shorter | 所以现在他们其实是短的 |
| 370 | But you know, I do think that everyone ultimately should consider it | 但你知道,我确实认为 每个人都应该考虑 |
| 371 | I mean, especially if you know you have kids and they have grandkids and there may be something | 我的意思是,特别是如果你知道 你有孩子,他们有孙子,可能有什么 |
| 372 | That's kind of like generations. | 这就像几代人一样 |
| 373 | Yes. | 对 |
| 374 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 375 | So like that could be a very human enhancing case | 所以说,这样就可能是一个非常人性化的案例 |
| 376 | Obviously folks who are doing stuff in media like you are like I am that's very useful in various ways and we've had | 很明显,在媒体上做你这种事的人 像我一样,这在很多方面都非常有用,我们有过 |
| 377 | Read ai give, you know keynotes at conferences and other kinds of things. | 阅读ai give, 你知道在会议上的主旨 和其他的东西。 |
| 378 | Yeah, I always just had that conference | 是啊,我总是有 刚刚的会议 |
| 379 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 380 | And so I think that's another thing your front end is not the phone directly calling you | 所以,我认为这是另一件事 你的前端不是电话直接打给你 |
| 381 | But you could imagine like like the front end is your ai agent. | 但你可以想象,就像前端 是你的AI代理。 |
| 382 | I'm trying to remember are we like oh, yeah | 我试着记住我们是一样的 哦,是的 |
| 383 | I I remember who you are and it's like, oh are we meeting for a coffee tomorrow two or three? | 我记得你是谁,而且它就像, 哦,我们见面 咖啡明天两三个? |
| 384 | Oh, it's three | 哦,这是三个 |
| 385 | And okay, and that could all happen with the agent or | 好吧,这都可能发生 与经纪人或 |
| 386 | I really need to get to read right now. | 我现在真的需要阅读。 |
| 387 | What's the issue? | 有什么问题吗? |
| 388 | Let's talk about it. | 师便打. |
| 389 | Oh, wait a minute. | 单单 |
| 390 | This does sound important. | 这确实很重要。 |
| 391 | Let me see if I can get them on the phone | 让我看看能不能给他们打电话 |
| 392 | That's awesome. | 这是真棒。 |
| 393 | Even like adopting someone's mindset because I sometimes ask chat jpg. | 甚至像收养某人的心态 因为我有时问聊天jpg。 |
| 394 | Can you think like this person? | 你能像这个人那样思考吗? |
| 395 | Yes, exactly | 没错 |
| 396 | That's very useful. | 这很有用 |
| 397 | Thank you so much read. | 谢谢你读了这么多。 |
| 398 | Uh, you gave me a lot of hope | 你给了我很多希望 |
| 399 | Because I was like, oh my god, it's taking over everything | 因为我就像,哦,我的上帝, 它接管了一切 |
| 400 | But it's actually enhancing us and this is what your new book is about. | 但它实际上正在增强我们, 这就是你的新书的内容。 |
| 401 | Right? | 对吧? |
| 402 | Yes | 对 |
| 403 | And and we're doing all kinds of little ai things to also, you know enhance and promote it. | 并且我们正在做各种小事 同时,你知道,加强和促进它。 |
| 404 | That's awesome | 好厉害 |
| 405 | Thank you, thank you, thank you | 谢谢,谢谢,谢谢 |
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