比军舰更重要的那张纸：中国要用人民币给航运保险定价｜附文稿
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | So usually when we think about global power on the oceans, | 所以通常当我们想到海洋上的全球力量时 |
| 0:03 | we picture giant military ships | 我们想象着巨型军舰 |
| 0:05 | or maybe huge, busy cargo ports. | 也可能是繁忙的大型货运港口 |
| 0:07 | Yeah, that's totally natural. | 是啊,这是完全自然的。 |
| 0:09 | I mean, it's easy to focus on the heavy steel, right? | 我的意思是,它很容易 专注于重钢,对不对? |
| 0:11 | We look at all those physical objects | 我们看着这些物理物体 |
| 0:12 | moving across the water because we can actually see them. | 移动在水面上,因为我们可以看到它们。 |
| 0:14 | Right, but today we're looking at | 是的,但今天我们正在寻找 |
| 0:16 | something completely invisible. | 完全看不见的东西。 |
| 0:18 | It's really just a piece of paper, | 这只是一张纸, |
展开字幕全文（583 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | So usually when we think about global power on the oceans, | 所以通常当我们想到海洋上的全球力量时 |
| 2 | we picture giant military ships | 我们想象着巨型军舰 |
| 3 | or maybe huge, busy cargo ports. | 也可能是繁忙的大型货运港口 |
| 4 | Yeah, that's totally natural. | 是啊,这是完全自然的。 |
| 5 | I mean, it's easy to focus on the heavy steel, right? | 我的意思是,它很容易 专注于重钢,对不对? |
| 6 | We look at all those physical objects | 我们看着这些物理物体 |
| 7 | moving across the water because we can actually see them. | 移动在水面上,因为我们可以看到它们。 |
| 8 | Right, but today we're looking at | 是的,但今天我们正在寻找 |
| 9 | something completely invisible. | 完全看不见的东西。 |
| 10 | It's really just a piece of paper, | 这只是一张纸, |
| 11 | or well, a digital contract. | 或者,一个数字合同。 |
| 12 | But it's a incredibly powerful piece of paper. | 但它是一个令人难以置信的 强大的纸。 |
| 13 | Honestly, in a lot of ways, | 说实话,在很多方面, |
| 14 | that contract is way more important | 那份合同就更重要了 |
| 15 | than the steel ships themselves. | 比钢船本身。 |
| 16 | Welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深潜 |
| 17 | Today we are exploring a single super fascinating topic | 今天我们正在探索一个超级迷人的话题 |
| 18 | based on a recent article from the South China Morning Post. | 依据"南华早报"近代文章改编. |
| 19 | And our mission today is to figure out | 而我们今天的任务是找出 |
| 20 | how China plans to change the hidden rules | 中国打算如何改变隐藏的规则 |
| 21 | of global shipping, | 全球航运, |
| 22 | and they're doing this through maritime insurance. | 他们正在通过海上保险来做到这一点。 |
| 23 | Right, which simply means the insurance policies | 对,那只是保险单 |
| 24 | for those massive cargo ships. | 那些大型货船。 |
| 25 | So it covers the ships themselves | 因此它覆盖了船自己 |
| 26 | and all the valuable goods they carry across the oceans. | 以及他们携带的珍贵物品 |
| 27 | I know insurance isn't exactly the usual topic | 我知道保险不是平常的话题 |
| 28 | of conversation at dinner parties. | 在晚宴上的对话。 |
| 29 | Most people never really give ship insurance | 大多数人从不给船保险 |
| 30 | a second thought. | 第二个想法。 |
| 31 | No, they definitely don't. | 不,他们绝对不知道。 |
| 32 | But without it, the entire global trade system | 但是没有它,整个全球贸易体系 |
| 33 | would just instantly stop. | 就会立刻停下来 |
| 34 | I mean, the daily movement of grain, oil, clothes, cars, | 谷物、石油、衣服、汽车的日常流动 |
| 35 | it would completely freeze. | 它会完全冻结。 |
| 36 | Well, the reason for that is pretty simple. | 原因很简单 |
| 37 | The financial risk of a modern cargo ship sinking | 现代货船沉没的财务风险 |
| 38 | is just too high. | 实在太高了 |
| 39 | I mean, no single shipping company | 我是说,没有一家航运公司 |
| 40 | can take on that massive risk alone. | 可以独自承担巨大的风险。 |
| 41 | Right, so today we will see | 是的,所以今天我们会看到 |
| 42 | how this boring sounding topic | 这个无聊的话题 |
| 43 | is actually this high stakes game of global power. | 事实上,这是全球力量的游戏。 |
| 44 | It's like a silent competition happening right now. | 就像一场静默的比赛 |
| 45 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 46 | And it directly affects you, the listener. | 它直接影响到你,听众。 |
| 47 | It dictates exactly how the products you buy every day | 它决定了你每天如何购买产品 |
| 48 | actually manage to reach your country. | 居然能到达你的国家 |
| 49 | Yeah, it represents a massive shift | 是啊,这代表着一个巨大的转变 |
| 50 | in how world trade works behind the scenes. | 在幕后世界贸易是如何运作的。 |
| 51 | So let's unpack this. | 所以,让我们打包这个。 |
| 52 | To really understand China's new plan, | 为了真正理解中国的新计划 |
| 53 | we first have to look at the current state of world trade. | 我们首先必须审视世界贸易的现状。 |
| 54 | Right now, there is a massive glaring imbalance | 现在,有一个巨大的明显不平衡 |
| 55 | {\fn华文楷体\fs16\1cHE0E0E0}在海洋上 | |
| 56 | Yeah, imbalance is the perfect word for it. | 是啊,不平衡是它完美的词。 |
| 57 | Let's just look at the basic reality of modern shipping. | 让我们看看现代航运的基本现实. |
| 58 | So China is an absolute powerhouse here. | 所以中国是这里的绝对强国. |
| 59 | Right. | 对 |
| 60 | They currently handle roughly one third | 他们目前处理大约三分之一 |
| 61 | of all international ocean trade. | 所有国际海洋贸易。 |
| 62 | One third. | 三分之一。 |
| 63 | I mean, just think about that for a second. | 我的意思是,只是考虑一下。 |
| 64 | One out of every three items moving across the sea | 每三件物品中就有一件在海上移动 |
| 65 | involves China in some way. | 以某种方式涉及中国。 |
| 66 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 67 | That represents an unbelievable amount | 这真是不可思议 |
| 68 | of physical control over global goods. | 对全球商品的实际控制。 |
| 69 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 70 | But here is the catch. | 但这是捕捉。 |
| 71 | China builds the goods, they load the goods, | 中国制造货物,他们装载货物, |
| 72 | they sail the ships, but they don't actually | 他们开着船,其实不是 |
| 73 | control the insurance for those ships. | 控制这些船的保险 |
| 74 | Which just feels completely backward, doesn't it? | 这感觉完全落后,不是吗? |
| 75 | Like, they handle all the physical movement, | 像,他们处理所有的身体运动, |
| 76 | but they don't hold the financial safety net? | 但他们没有金融安全网? |
| 77 | Right, exactly. | 没错 |
| 78 | Currently, Western companies almost entirely | 目前,西方公司几乎完全 |
| 79 | dominate this field. | 主导这个领域。 |
| 80 | There is a very specific historical group | 有一个非常特殊的历史群体 |
| 81 | based in London. | 总部在伦敦 |
| 82 | OK. | 摆 |
| 83 | They are called the International Group of P&I | 他们被称为国际保赔集团 |
| 84 | Clubs. | 俱乐部。 |
| 85 | Well, let's break that name down a bit | 好吧,让我们打破这个名字一点点 |
| 86 | just so we're all on the same page. | 所以,我们都在同一页。 |
| 87 | What exactly does P&I stand for in this context? | 在这种情况下,P&I代表什么? |
| 88 | Good question. | 问得好 |
| 89 | So it stands for protection and indemnity. | 因此它代表着保护和赔偿。 |
| 90 | Basically, it's a specific type of insurance for ship owners. | 基本上,它是船主的一种特定类型的保险. |
| 91 | It protects them against massive liabilities. | 它可以保护他们免受巨大的债务。 |
| 92 | Meaning legal responsibilities for accidents, right? | 意思是法律责任 对事故,对不对? |
| 93 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 94 | For example, if their ship crashes | 例如,如果他们的船坠毁 |
| 95 | and causes a giant oil spill. | 并造成巨大的石油泄漏。 |
| 96 | Or if it damages a major port. | 或者如果它损坏了一个主要的港口。 |
| 97 | Right, like when that massive container ship got stuck | 对 就像那艘大型集装箱船被卡住了 |
| 98 | and blocked an entire canal for a week? | 封锁了整个运河一个星期? |
| 99 | Oh, yeah. | 对 |
| 100 | The financial damages for something like that | 经济损失 类似的东西 |
| 101 | are just huge. | 只是巨大的。 |
| 102 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 103 | The claims can reach into the billions of dollars. | 索赔可达数十亿美元。 |
| 104 | So ship owners group together into these clubs | 所以船主们一起加入这些俱乐部 |
| 105 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}共同分享他们的钱 分担极度的风险 | |
| 106 | OK, that makes sense. | 好吧,这是有道理的。 |
| 107 | So how much power does this specific London group | 伦敦集团有多少权力? |
| 108 | actually have? | 是吗? |
| 109 | It's staggering, honestly. | 老实说,这是惊人的。 |
| 110 | This London-based group covers about 87% | 这个在伦敦的团体占87%左右 |
| 111 | of all large ocean-going ships in the entire world. | 全世界所有大型远洋船只中 |
| 112 | Wait, 87%? | 等等 87%吗? |
| 113 | That is basically a monopoly. | 这基本上是垄断。 |
| 114 | Let me try to put this in a more relatable everyday scenario | 让我试着把这个 在一个更可重塑的日常情景 |
| 115 | for you listening. | 为你聆听。 |
| 116 | Imagine you own a delivery business, OK? | 想象一下你有一个送货业务,好吗? |
| 117 | OK. | 摆 |
| 118 | You've worked really hard, and now you | 你真的很努力,现在你 |
| 119 | have the biggest delivery company in your entire city. | 拥有你们全市最大的快递公司 |
| 120 | You own almost all the delivery trucks. | 你拥有几乎所有的货车。 |
| 121 | OK, I'm picturing it. | 好吧,我想象着它。 |
| 122 | But here's a twist. | 但有一个曲折。 |
| 123 | Your biggest business rival actually | 其实你最大的生意对手 |
| 124 | holds the insurance policy on every single one | 每张都持有保险单 |
| 125 | of your delivery trucks. | 你的货车。 |
| 126 | Yeah, that is a brilliant analogy. | 是啊,这是一个辉煌的类比。 |
| 127 | It highlights exactly why this situation is so risky. | 它突出说明了为什么这种情况如此危险。 |
| 128 | Because you might own the trucks, | 因为你可能拥有卡车, |
| 129 | but you are in a very vulnerable position. | 但你的处境非常脆弱 |
| 130 | Because if that rival simply decides | 因为如果对手只是决定 |
| 131 | to cancel your insurance policy, your trucks | 取消你的保险单,你的卡车 |
| 132 | can't legally drive on the roads anymore. | 不能再在路上开车了 |
| 133 | Your entire business just stops in a single afternoon. | 你整个生意在下午就停止了 |
| 134 | And the ocean works the exact same way. | 海洋也一样 |
| 135 | Major global ports will not let a giant cargo ship dock | 主要的全球港口不会让巨型货船停靠 |
| 136 | if it doesn't have proper insurance. | 如果它没有适当的保险。 |
| 137 | The port authority just won't take the risk. | 港务局不会冒险的 |
| 138 | So if you don't control the insurance, | 所以如果你不能控制保险 |
| 139 | you don't really control the rules. | 你并不真正控制规则。 |
| 140 | You don't have ultimate control over how your own goods | 你对自己的货物没有最终控制权 |
| 141 | move around the world. | 环游世界 |
| 142 | The real power belongs to the people in London | 真正的权力属于伦敦人民 |
| 143 | holding the contracts. | 持有合同。 |
| 144 | Which brings us to the big question, right? | 这又是一个大问题,对吧? |
| 145 | Why is China trying to fix this imbalance right now? | 中国现在为什么试图纠正这种不平衡? |
| 146 | Yeah, because they've been a major shipping | 是啊,因为他们是主要的航运 |
| 147 | power for decades. | 数十年的力量。 |
| 148 | Why didn't they tackle this like 20 years ago? | 他们为什么不像20年前那样处理这件事? |
| 149 | Well, the urgency comes down to recent global events. | 最近发生的全球事件是紧迫的。 |
| 150 | The last few years have served as a serious geopolitical wake | 过去几年是严重的地缘政治警钟 |
| 151 | up call for Beijing. | 呼唤北京. |
| 152 | So seven different Chinese government agencies | 所以七个不同的中国政府机构 |
| 153 | just came together. | 刚走到一起 |
| 154 | And they issued a sweeping new set of guidelines | 他们发布了一套全新的准则 |
| 155 | to rapidly build up their own domestic maritime insurance | * 迅速建立本国的海上保险; |
| 156 | industry. | 工业。 |
| 157 | Yeah, they are reacting directly to rising tension | 对,他们直接对张力上升作出反应 |
| 158 | in the world. | 在这个世界。 |
| 159 | Specifically, Western sanctions on Russian oil shipments | 特别是西方对俄罗斯石油运输的制裁 |
| 160 | changed everything. | 改变了一切。 |
| 161 | And just to pause here for a second, | 就在这里暂停一下 |
| 162 | we always want to be clear with you listening, | 我们总是想跟你讲清楚 |
| 163 | looking at this strictly from a strategic perspective | 严格从战略角度看待这个问题 |
| 164 | without taking any political sides on the war in Ukraine | 在乌克兰战争中不带任何政治派别 |
| 165 | or the trade disruptions in the Middle East | 中东的贸易中断 |
| 166 | or just reporting the facts from the source here. | 或者只是从消息来源那里报告事实 |
| 167 | Right, absolutely. | 对,绝对的。 |
| 168 | We are just looking at the strategic reality on the board. | 我们只是在研究董事会的战略现实。 |
| 169 | Western governments realized they | 西方政府意识到 |
| 170 | could use this insurance dominance as a tool. | 可以利用这种保险支配地位作为工具。 |
| 171 | So if they tell the London clubs you | 所以如果他们告诉伦敦俱乐部你 |
| 172 | are legally forbidden from insuring ships carrying | 法律禁止对运载 |
| 173 | Russian oil, those ships suddenly can't operate normally. | 俄国石油,这些船突然无法正常运转. |
| 174 | Because they lose their coverage, | 因为他们失去了他们的覆盖, |
| 175 | which means they lose access to major ports. | 这意味着他们无法进入主要港口。 |
| 176 | They basically become toxic assets on the water. | 它们基本上成为水上的有毒资产. |
| 177 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 178 | And experts in China, like researchers | 以及中国的专家,比如研究人员 |
| 179 | at the Guangdong Society of Reform, | 在广东改革学会, |
| 180 | they watched this happen. | 他们看着这发生。 |
| 181 | They realized these global tensions exposed massive gaps | 他们意识到这些全球紧张局势暴露了巨大的差距 |
| 182 | in their own security. | 在他们自己的安全。 |
| 183 | I mean, if it can happen to someone else, | 我的意思是,如果它可能发生在别人身上, |
| 184 | it could happen to them. | 这可能发生在他们身上。 |
| 185 | So does this mean insurance is now actively being viewed | 所以,这意味着保险 现在被积极看 |
| 186 | as a geopolitical weapon? | 作为地缘政治武器? |
| 187 | Without a doubt. | 无疑. |
| 188 | If you can control the insurance, | 如果你能控制保险 |
| 189 | you can effectively blockade a country's trade | 你可以有效地封锁一个国家的贸易 |
| 190 | without ever firing a single shot. | 从来没有发射过一枪。 |
| 191 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 192 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 193 | You don't need a navy to stop a ship | 你不需要海军来阻止船只 |
| 194 | if you can just cancel its paperwork. | 如果你可以取消它的文件。 |
| 195 | That must look terrifying from China's perspective. | 从中国的角度来看,这看起来一定很可怕。 |
| 196 | Their entire economy relies on exporting physical goods. | 它们的整个经济都依赖出口有形货物。 |
| 197 | It's totally unacceptable risk for them. | 这对他们来说是完全不可接受的风险。 |
| 198 | But, you know, it's not just about sanctions or conflicts. | 但是,你知道,它不仅仅是关于制裁或冲突。 |
| 199 | These new government guidelines also focus on modern, | 这些新的政府准则也侧重于现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、现代、 |
| 200 | emerging threats. | 新出现的威胁。 |
| 201 | Because the shipping industry is changing fast, right? | 因为航运业变化很快,对吧? |
| 202 | What kind of new threats are we talking about? | 我们在谈论什么样的新威胁? |
| 203 | Things like severe cyber attacks. | 像是网络攻击 |
| 204 | I mean, modern cargo ships rely on really complex | 我的意思是,现代货船 依赖非常复杂的 |
| 205 | computer systems for navigation and engine control. | 用于导航和引擎控制的计算机系统。 |
| 206 | Hackers can target those systems. | 黑客可以瞄准那些系统 |
| 207 | A hacked container ship sounds like an absolute nightmare | 黑客集装箱船听起来简直是噩梦 |
| 208 | to insure. | 保险。 |
| 209 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 210 | And the guidelines also mention supply chain problems | 准则还提到供应链问题 |
| 211 | and climate change. | 气候变化。 |
| 212 | As global ice melts, | 随着全球冰层的融化 |
| 213 | ships are exploring brand new routes | 船正在探索全新的航线 |
| 214 | through places like the Arctic. | 穿过北极等地方 |
| 215 | And those icy routes are incredibly dangerous, | 那些冰冷的路线非常危险, |
| 216 | I'd imagine. | 我想象着 |
| 217 | They don't have established safety rules yet. | 他们还没有制定安全规则 |
| 218 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 219 | The world of shipping is entering uncharted territory, | 船运界正在进入未知领土 |
| 220 | both politically and physically. | 无论是政治还是身体 |
| 221 | And China wants to be ready with its own safety net. | 而中国也希望做好自身安全网的准备. |
| 222 | Okay, so if China views relying on Western insurance | 如果中国认为依靠西方保险 |
| 223 | as this massive risk, | 作为这个巨大的风险, |
| 224 | they can't just flip a switch to fix it, right? | 他们不能只是翻开一个开关来修复它,对不对? |
| 225 | The system is deeply entrenched. | 这一制度根深蒂固。 |
| 226 | So how exactly do they plan to take control? | 那么他们究竟打算如何控制? |
| 227 | Well, to actually build their own system, | 为了建立自己的系统 |
| 228 | they have to start by completely rewiring | 他们必须从完全重接开始 |
| 229 | the money and the math. | 钱和数学 |
| 230 | Okay, let's start with the money. | 好吧,让我们开始的钱。 |
| 231 | The biggest change outlined in the guidelines | 准则中概述的最大变化 |
| 232 | is the currency itself. | 是货币本身。 |
| 233 | China wants to push the use of its own money, the yuan. | 中方想推自己钱,人民币的使用. |
| 234 | Yeah, because right now the US dollar | 是啊,因为现在美元 |
| 235 | is the undisputed king of the oceans. | 是海洋中无可争议的国王。 |
| 236 | Almost all major shipping contracts, | 几乎所有主要的航运合同, |
| 237 | you know, insurance premiums, | 你知道,保险费, |
| 238 | which are just the regular payments for the insurance, | 这只是保险的正常支付, |
| 239 | and damage payouts, | 和亏损的报应, |
| 240 | they're all calculated and settled in dollars. | 都用美元计算和结算 |
| 241 | So if a Chinese ship sinks, | 所以如果中国船只沉没 |
| 242 | a Western insurance company pays out the claim in dollars, | 一家西方保险公司以美元支付索赔, |
| 243 | moving through Western banks. | 穿过西方银行 |
| 244 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 245 | And those Western banking channels | 还有那些西方银行的渠道 |
| 246 | are heavily regulated by Western governments. | 受到西方政府的严格管制。 |
| 247 | So China's new plan urges their own domestic banks | 所以中国的新计划就催促国内银行 |
| 248 | to step in. | 进入。 |
| 249 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 250 | They want to make it much easier | 他们想让事情简单得多 |
| 251 | to pay for insurance policies | 支付保险单 |
| 252 | and settle massive damage claims entirely in yuan. | 并全部用人民币解决巨额索赔。 |
| 253 | That makes perfect sense. | 这很合理 |
| 254 | If you remove the US dollar from the transaction, | 如果你把美元从交易中移除 |
| 255 | you remove a major pressure point. | 你删除一个主要的压力点。 |
| 256 | You bypass those Western banking channels completely. | 你完全绕过那些西方银行渠道 |
| 257 | It's a huge logistical challenge, | 这是一个巨大的后勤挑战, |
| 258 | but it's a necessary step | 但这是必要的一步 |
| 259 | toward true financial independence for them. | 实现他们真正的财政独立。 |
| 260 | And alongside the currency, | 和货币, |
| 261 | they also want to rewrite the actual rules of the game. | 他们也想要改写游戏的实际规则. |
| 262 | Yeah, the guidelines state | 是的,准则规定 |
| 263 | they want to create their own standard | 他们想创造自己的标准 |
| 264 | maritime insurance contracts. | 海事保险合同。 |
| 265 | And they plan to write these foundational documents | 他们打算写这些基础文件 |
| 266 | in both Chinese and English. | 中文和英文。 |
| 267 | Right, so this is about setting the legal standards. | 是的,所以这是关于制定法律标准。 |
| 268 | But the final piece of their strategy, | 但是他们最后的策略 |
| 269 | and maybe the most difficult one, is data. | 也许最困难的是数据 |
| 270 | Data? | 数据? |
| 271 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 272 | They want to gather and share massive amounts | 他们想收集并分享大量资金 |
| 273 | of industry data within China. | 中国工业数据。 |
| 274 | The stated goal here is for China to, quote, | 这里所说的目标是中国, |
| 275 | price maritime risks independently. | 价格 海上风险独立。 |
| 276 | Now, I have to push back here a little bit. | 现在我得往后推一点 |
| 277 | Go ahead. | 来吧。 |
| 278 | What's the sticking point? | 坚持点是什么? |
| 279 | Well, isn't insurance basically just math? | 保险不是只是数学吗? |
| 280 | Like, you look at a ship, | 像,你看着船, |
| 281 | you calculate the weather patterns, | 你计算天气模式, |
| 282 | you check the ship's age and the captain's record, | 检查船龄和船长记录 |
| 283 | you run the numbers and you get a fair price. | 你运行数字,你得到一个公平的价格。 |
| 284 | Why does it matter who is actually doing the math? | 为什么谁在做数学? |
| 285 | That's a really great question. | 这是一个非常好的问题。 |
| 286 | We tend to think of math as neutral, | 我们倾向于认为数学是中性的, |
| 287 | but in the insurance world, | 但在保险界 |
| 288 | the person who holds the historical data | 拥有历史数据的人 |
| 289 | completely controls the market. | 完全控制市场。 |
| 290 | Okay, how does that actually play out in real life? | 好吧,这在现实生活中是怎样运作的? |
| 291 | Let's use the Arctic route as an example. | 以北极航线为例. |
| 292 | So if you want to ensure a voyage through icy waters, | 所以,如果你想确保 通过冰冷的水域, |
| 293 | you need to know the exact probability of an accident. | 你需要知道事故的确切概率。 |
| 294 | Right. | 对 |
| 295 | You need to know how likely it is | 你需要知道这有多可能 |
| 296 | that the ship will hit an iceberg or get stuck. | 飞船会撞上冰山 或者被卡住 |
| 297 | And to know that probability, | 为了知道这个概率, |
| 298 | you need decades, maybe even centuries of historical data. | 你需要几十年 甚至几个世纪的历史数据 |
| 299 | You need records of weather patterns, | 你需要天气规律的记录 |
| 300 | past accidents, port conditions. | 以往的事故、港口条件。 |
| 301 | And the London clubs have been collecting | 伦敦俱乐部一直在收集 |
| 302 | this specific data for hundreds of years. | 数百年来的具体数据 |
| 303 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 304 | They have a massive head start. | 他们有一个巨大的开始。 |
| 305 | They have this mountain of information | 他们有这山上的信息 |
| 306 | that nobody else has. | 没有人知道。 |
| 307 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 308 | And because London has all that historical data, | 因为伦敦拥有所有的历史数据 |
| 309 | they can calculate the risk accurately. | 他们可以准确计算风险。 |
| 310 | So they can offer the shipping company | 所以他们可以提供航运公司 |
| 311 | a fair competitive price. | 公平竞争的价格。 |
| 312 | And what happens if a brand new Chinese insurance company | 如果一个全新的中国保险公司会怎么样? |
| 313 | tries to price that exact same icy voyage? | 想给同样的冰冷航行定价吗? |
| 314 | Well, the Chinese insurer is essentially flying blind. | 中国的保险商根本上是瞎子 |
| 315 | They don't have the historical data to rely on. | 他们没有可以依靠的历史数据. |
| 316 | So they have to guess. | 所以他们必须猜 |
| 317 | And in insurance, guessing is super dangerous. | 在保险中,猜测是超级危险的。 |
| 318 | Because if you guess too low, | 因为如果你猜得太低, |
| 319 | you don't charge enough money. | 你不收足够的钱。 |
| 320 | Ship sinks, you pay out the claim, | 船沉, 你支付索赔, |
| 321 | and your company just goes bankrupt. | 你的公司刚刚破产了 |
| 322 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 323 | But if you guess too high to protect yourself, | 但如果你猜得太高 无法保护自己 |
| 324 | your price becomes way too expensive. | 你的价钱太贵了 |
| 325 | Right. | 对 |
| 326 | The shipping company will just ignore you | 船运公司不会理你 |
| 327 | and buy the cheaper policy from London instead. | 然后从伦敦买价廉的政策 |
| 328 | That is fascinating. | 这是令人着迷的。 |
| 329 | The data itself acts as this massive competitive wall. | 数据本身就是巨大的竞争墙 |
| 330 | So despite China's huge size in physical shipping, | 所以尽管中国的航运规模很大 |
| 331 | they currently lack the data | 他们目前缺乏数据 |
| 332 | to actually influence international pricing. | 影响国际价格。 |
| 333 | Yet they are forced to play by London's rules. | 然而他们被迫遵守伦敦的规则。 |
| 334 | So this new plan is about breaking that monopoly. | 这个新计划是要打破垄断。 |
| 335 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 336 | By forcing their domestic companies | 强迫国内公司 |
| 337 | to share shipping data internally, | 内部分享航运数据, |
| 338 | China can finally build its own risk models. | 中国最终可以建立自己的风险模式. |
| 339 | They want to collect enough information | 他们想收集足够的信息 |
| 340 | to confidently do the math themselves. | 自信地自己做数学。 |
| 341 | Yes. | 对 |
| 342 | It's a long-term play to take the pricing power back. | 长期发挥夺回定价权. |
| 343 | No, it's not just about how they insure the ships, right? | 不,这不仅仅是 他们如何保证船只,对不对? |
| 344 | We also need to look at what exactly | 我们还需要看看究竟 |
| 345 | is sitting inside those cargo containers. | 坐在那些货柜里 |
| 346 | The strategy is heavily focused | 该战略重点突出 |
| 347 | on the technology of tomorrow. | 明天的技术。 |
| 348 | Yeah, the new guidelines certainly want better, | 是啊,新准则当然想要更好的, |
| 349 | more secure insurance for basic goods. | 基本商品保险更加安全。 |
| 350 | Things like energy, essential minerals, | 能源 重要矿物 |
| 351 | and agricultural grain. | 和农业谷物。 |
| 352 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 353 | You will always need to secure the basics. | 你总是需要 保证基本。 |
| 354 | But there is a very noticeable shift | 但有一个非常显著的转变 |
| 355 | toward manufactured goods. | 转向制成品。 |
| 356 | Right. | 对 |
| 357 | The government is specifically targeting things | 政府专门针对一些事情 |
| 358 | like electronics, high-end equipment, electric vehicles, | 如电子设备,高端设备,电动车辆, |
| 359 | lithium batteries, and solar cells. | 锂电池 太阳能电池 |
| 360 | And these are just random products. | 这些只是随机产品。 |
| 361 | These represent the high-value supply chains of the future. | 这些是未来的高价值供应链。 |
| 362 | And China's already leading the world in manufacturing them. | 而中国已经在制造它们方面领先世界. |
| 363 | The numbers really back that up. | 数字真的备份。 |
| 364 | China's Ministry of Transport revealed that in 2025, | 中国交通部透露 2025年 |
| 365 | China actually ranked first globally | 中国在全球排名第一 |
| 366 | in marine cargo insurance premiums. | 海运货物保险费。 |
| 367 | Meaning they collected more money | 意思是他们多收点钱 |
| 368 | for insuring physical cargo than anyone else. | 用来保证实物货物 比任何人。 |
| 369 | They hold about 19% of the global market | 占全球市场的19% |
| 370 | for this specific type of cargo coverage. | 适用于这种特定类型的货物。 |
| 371 | And the growth rate is wild. | 而生长速率狂野. |
| 372 | Last year, China's cargo insurance market | 去年的中国货物保险市场 |
| 373 | grew by a massive 19%. | 增长幅度高达19%。 |
| 374 | Just with that in perspective, | 从这个角度来说, |
| 375 | what was the average growth for the rest of the world? | 世界其他地方的平均增长率是多少? |
| 376 | The global average only grew by 6.9%. | 全球平均增长率仅为6.9%。 |
| 377 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 378 | Yeah, China is growing almost three times faster | 对,中国增长快三倍 |
| 379 | than everyone else in this sector. | 比这个部门的每一个人都好 |
| 380 | That is a staggering difference. | 这是一个惊人的差异。 |
| 381 | And this boom is largely driven by their massive push | 这场繁荣主要是由它们的巨大推动推动的 |
| 382 | into exporting green technology. | 出口绿色技术。 |
| 383 | All those electric vehicles | 所有电动车辆 |
| 384 | and solar panels heading overseas, | 和太阳板向海外飞去, |
| 385 | they all need to be insured. | 他们都需要保险。 |
| 386 | You know, it seems like a brilliant strategic move. | 你知道,这似乎是 一个辉煌的战略举动。 |
| 387 | They aren't just trying to protect the old legacy industries. | 他们不只是试图保护 旧的遗产产业。 |
| 388 | They are actively building a protective wall | 他们正在积极建造防护墙 |
| 389 | around the most valuable supply chains of the future. | 围绕未来最有价值的供应链。 |
| 390 | A protective wall is exactly how you should think about it. | 保护墙正是你该怎么考虑的 |
| 391 | In the industry, this connects to a core concept | 在这个行业,这与一个核心概念有关 |
| 392 | known as supply chain resilience. | 称为供应链复原力。 |
| 393 | How does insurance make a supply chain more resilient? | 保险如何使供应链更具复原力? |
| 394 | Just meaning like able to bounce back from a problem? | 就是说能从问题中恢复过来? |
| 395 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 396 | Resilience just means your supply chain | 恢复力只是意味着你的供应链 |
| 397 | can survive a sudden shock without falling apart. | 可以在突然的冲击中幸存下来 而不解体 |
| 398 | So let's look at electric vehicles. | 让我们看看电动车辆。 |
| 399 | Sheeping thousands of giant lithium batteries | 数以千计的锂电池 |
| 400 | across the ocean carries unique risks. | 横跨海洋有着独特的风险。 |
| 401 | Right. | 对 |
| 402 | They can catch fire. | 他们会着火的 |
| 403 | And those fires are incredibly hard to put out. | 这些火灾很难扑灭 |
| 404 | So a Western insurance company | 所以是一家西方保险公司 |
| 405 | might look at a massive shipment of Chinese EVs | 可能会看到大批中国EV |
| 406 | and get kind of nervous. | 然后紧张起来 |
| 407 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 408 | Maybe they get nervous about the fire risk | 也许他们对火灾危险很紧张 |
| 409 | or, you know, maybe new political tensions arise. | 或者,你知道,也许新的政治紧张局势出现。 |
| 410 | Either way, the Western insurer | 不管怎样,西方保险公司 |
| 411 | might suddenly demand insanely high prices | 可能会突然要求高价 |
| 412 | or they might refuse to cover the shipment entirely. | 或者他们可能拒绝全部支付运费。 |
| 413 | And if that happens, the cars can't leave the port, | 如果那样的话 汽车不能离开港口 |
| 414 | the supply chain completely breaks down. | 供应链完全崩溃。 |
| 415 | But if China builds this protective wall, | 但如果中国建了这道保护墙 |
| 416 | they don't have to worry. | 他们不必担心。 |
| 417 | If London says no, | 如果伦敦拒绝, |
| 418 | China's own domestic insurers will immediately step in. | 中国国内保险商将立即介入. |
| 419 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 420 | They will provide the coverage, no matter the cost, | 无论付出多少代价 他们都会提供保险 |
| 421 | to ensure those exports keep moving. | 确保这些出口继续发展。 |
| 422 | So they are making absolutely sure | 所以他们绝对确定 |
| 423 | that their dominance in green tech | 在绿色科技领域的主导地位 |
| 424 | cannot be slowed down by, you know, | 不能被减速,你知道, |
| 425 | a foreign insurance clerk. | 外国保险员。 |
| 426 | It's all about guaranteeing their own economic security. | 这都是为了保障自己的经济安全. |
| 427 | Right. | 对 |
| 428 | It's literally an insurance policy | 这是保险单 |
| 429 | for their entire export economy. | 他们的整个出口经济。 |
| 430 | So we've spent this entire deep dive | 所以,我们花了整个深度潜水 |
| 431 | talking about a fierce drive for independence. | 谈论着争取独立的激烈运动。 |
| 432 | We've explored how China wants to break away | 我们探索了中国想怎样分裂 |
| 433 | from Western dominance. | 从西方统治。 |
| 434 | They want to use the yuan, build their own data models, | 他们想用人民币 建立自己的数据模型 |
| 435 | and protect their own green tech. | 保护自己的绿色技术 |
| 436 | Yeah, the theme of self-reliance | 是啊,自力更生的主题 |
| 437 | is written all over these new guidelines. | 这些新准则的全文。 |
| 438 | They want to stand on their own two feet. | 欲自立两足. |
| 439 | Which is why the detail at the very end of this source | 这就是为什么这个来源的结尾的细节 |
| 440 | is such a surprising twist. | 真是令人惊讶的曲折 |
| 441 | It feels like it contradicts everything we just discussed. | 感觉和我们刚才讨论的一切都相矛盾 |
| 442 | It really is a fascinating, unexpected move. | 这真的是一个令人着迷,意想不到的举动. |
| 443 | So last month, a major Chinese maritime insurer | 上个月,中国一家大型海运保险公司 |
| 444 | made a significant play. | 做了一个重要的游戏。 |
| 445 | The organization is called | 这个组织叫做 |
| 446 | the China Ship Owners Mutual Assurance Association. | 中国船舶所有人相互保证协会. |
| 447 | Right. | 对 |
| 448 | This is one of China's primary groups | 这是中国的主要团体之一 |
| 449 | for providing liability coverage to their own ship owners. | (a) 为本国船舶所有人提供赔偿责任保险。 |
| 450 | Well, they officially submitted an application | 他们正式递交了申请 |
| 451 | to join the exact same London-based group | 加入同样位于伦敦的团体 |
| 452 | that currently controls 87% of the market, | 目前控制着87%的市场, |
| 453 | the International Group of P&I Clubs. | 国际保赔协会集团。 |
| 454 | And the London group confirmed | 伦敦小组确认 |
| 455 | they are actively assessing the application right now. | 他们正在积极评估申请。 |
| 456 | I have to admit, I'm genuinely surprised by this. | 我必须承认,我真的很惊讶。 |
| 457 | If your entire national goal | 如果你的全部国家目标 |
| 458 | is to reduce reliance on the West, | 减少对西方的依赖, |
| 459 | why on earth are you knocking on the front door | 你敲门干什么? |
| 460 | of the biggest Western insurance club? | 最大的西方保险俱乐部? |
| 461 | I know it looks like a total contradiction, | 我知道这看起来像一个完全矛盾, |
| 462 | but if you look closer, | 但是如果你仔细看 |
| 463 | it's a highly practical dual strategy. | 这是一个非常实用的双重策略。 |
| 464 | A dual strategy, | 双重战略, |
| 465 | meaning they're intentionally doing | 意思是他们故意这样做 |
| 466 | two opposite things at the same time? | 两个相反的东西 同时? |
| 467 | Yes. | 对 |
| 468 | Just think about the reality of the situation. | 想想现实吧 |
| 469 | You can't just isolate yourself overnight. | 你不能一晚上就把自己孤立起来 |
| 470 | So on one hand, you are working hard | 所以一方面,你很努力地工作 |
| 471 | to build your own independent system at home. | 在家里建立自己的独立系统。 |
| 472 | You establish the yuan, | 你建立人民币, |
| 473 | you protect your key industries. | 你保护你的关键行业。 |
| 474 | You build up your own internal strength and resilience. | 你建立自己的内部力量和韧性。 |
| 475 | But on the other hand, | 但另一方面, |
| 476 | you don't run away from the global system. | 你们不会离开全球系统 |
| 477 | You actively join the biggest club in the world. | 你积极地加入了世界上最大的俱乐部。 |
| 478 | You do this to learn their rules from the inside. | 你这样做是为了从内部学习他们的规则. |
| 479 | Ah, keep your friends close | 保持朋友的亲近 |
| 480 | and your competitors closer. | 以及你们的配主。 |
| 481 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 482 | The government guidelines actually mention this. | 政府的准则实际上提到了这一点。 |
| 483 | They explicitly encourage Chinese insurers | 他们明确鼓励中国的保险公司 |
| 484 | to expand their overseas networks. | 扩大海外网络。 |
| 485 | They want them to form partnerships | 他们希望他们结成伙伴 |
| 486 | with established international providers. | 与现有的国际供应商。 |
| 487 | So by joining the London Club, | 所以,通过加入伦敦俱乐部, |
| 488 | this Chinese association gets immediate access | 这个中国协会可以立即进入 |
| 489 | to a massive global network. | 一个巨大的全球网络。 |
| 490 | And they get access to vital reinsurance. | 他们可以获得重要的再保险。 |
| 491 | I mean, even a massive Chinese insurer | 我的意思是,即使是一个庞大的中国保险公司 |
| 492 | can't easily absorb a multi-billion dollar disaster | 无法轻易承受数十亿美元的灾难 |
| 493 | on its own quite yet. | 还没有完全独立 |
| 494 | Makes sense. | 说得通 |
| 495 | But joining the club, | 但加入俱乐部, |
| 496 | they get the financial backing of the entire global group | 它们得到整个全球集团的财政支持 |
| 497 | while they continue to grow. | 他们继续成长。 |
| 498 | But wait, why would the London Group | 但是,等等,为什么伦敦集团 |
| 499 | even consider letting them in? | 甚至考虑让他们进来? |
| 500 | If China's building a rival system, why help them? | 如果中国在建立竞争制度,为什么要帮助他们? |
| 501 | Because London is also practical. | 因为伦敦也是实用的. |
| 502 | China controls a third of global shipping. | 中国控制着全球航运的三分之一. |
| 503 | The London Clubs want access | 伦敦俱乐部想要进入 |
| 504 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}那个巨大的中国市场 | |
| 505 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 506 | Yeah, it's often better to bring a rising competitor | 是啊,这往往更好 带来一个上升的竞争者 |
| 507 | inside your tent where you can influence them | 在你的帐篷里 你可以影响他们 |
| 508 | rather than letting them build a completely separate, | 而不是让他们另立一格, |
| 509 | unregulated rival system outside. | 外面的无管制竞争制度 |
| 510 | It's like this complex frenemy dynamic. | 这就像这种复杂的发火动态。 |
| 511 | China builds a fortress at home, | 中国在家中建堡垒 |
| 512 | but they also open a branch office | 但是他们也开了个分行 |
| 513 | right inside their rival's headquarters. | 就在他们对手的总部 |
| 514 | They play the current game | 他们玩现在的游戏 |
| 515 | while preparing to change the rules of the next one. | 同时也准备改变下一个规则 |
| 516 | It's incredibly practical. | 这太实际了 |
| 517 | You simply cannot ignore an organization | 你不能无视一个组织 |
| 518 | that controls 87% of the global market. | 控制着87%的全球市场 |
| 519 | You have to work alongside them today | 你今天得和他们一起工作 |
| 520 | to build your own independent strength for tomorrow. | 为明天建立自己的独立力量 |
| 521 | That makes a lot of sense | 这很有道理 |
| 522 | when you look at the bigger picture. | 当你看到更大的画面。 |
| 523 | Well, we have covered a lot of complex ground today. | 我们今天覆盖了许多复杂的地方。 |
| 524 | Let's quickly trace the path we just took. | 让我们快速追踪我们刚刚走过的路。 |
| 525 | Okay, so we started by looking | 好吧,所以我们开始寻找 |
| 526 | at a huge imbalance in global trade. | 全球贸易严重失衡。 |
| 527 | China moves a massive portion of the world's physical goods, | 中国移动了世界上一大部分物质 |
| 528 | but Western institutions | 但西方机构 |
| 529 | hold the crucial insurance contracts. | 持有关键的保险合同。 |
| 530 | Right. | 对 |
| 531 | Then we explored how recent global conflicts and sanctions | 然后我们探索了最近的全球冲突和制裁 |
| 532 | served as a harsh wake-up call. | 作为严酷的警醒 |
| 533 | We saw how maritime insurance has evolved | 我们看到海运保险的发展 |
| 534 | from a simple financial tool | 从简单的金融工具 |
| 535 | into a potent geopolitical weapon. | 成为强大的地缘政治武器 |
| 536 | And from there, we broke down China's strategy | 从此,我们打破了中国的策略 |
| 537 | to fix this vulnerability. | 解决这种脆弱性。 |
| 538 | They are pushing to use their own currency. | 他们想用自己的货币 |
| 539 | They are racing to collect their own historical data | 他们竞相收集自己的历史资料 |
| 540 | so they can set prices independently. | 这样他们就可以独立地设定价格。 |
| 541 | And we saw how they are building a protective wall | 我们看见他们如何建造保护墙 |
| 542 | around their most vital future exports. | 围绕其最重要的未来出口。 |
| 543 | They want to guarantee that their electric vehicles | 他们想保证他们的电动车辆 |
| 544 | and solar panels can always reach global markets, | 太阳能电池板总是可以进入全球市场, |
| 545 | no matter what happens politically. | 无论政治上发生什么 |
| 546 | And finally, we examined that surprising practical twist. | 最后,我们研究了这个令人惊讶的实际曲折。 |
| 547 | They are actively seeking to join the very London club | 他们正积极争取加入伦敦俱乐部 |
| 548 | they eventually want to be independent from. | 他们最终想要独立 |
| 549 | It's just a masterclass in playing both sides of the board. | 只是玩两面棋的大师类. |
| 550 | So why does all of this matter to you? | 那为什么这一切都关你什么事? |
| 551 | The next time you're driving on the highway | 你下次在高速公路上开车 |
| 552 | and you pass a giant shipping container on a truck, | 你通过一个巨大的集装箱 在卡车上, |
| 553 | think about this conversation. | 想想这个谈话。 |
| 554 | The next time you see a brand new electric vehicle | 下次你见到一辆全新的电动车 |
| 555 | silently driving down your street, | 悄悄地开着你的街 |
| 556 | remember the journey it took to get there. | 记得去那的旅程 |
| 557 | Because behind every physical product in your life, | 因为在你生命的每一件物质产品背后 |
| 558 | there is an invisible, complex web of financial insurance. | 有一个隐形复杂的金融保险网。 |
| 559 | That simple piece of paper is the only thing | 那张简单的纸是唯一的东西 |
| 560 | that makes the long, dangerous ocean journey possible. | 这使得漫长,危险的海洋旅程成为可能. |
| 561 | And right now, there is a quiet, | 而现在,有一个安静的, |
| 562 | incredibly high-stakes competition | 惊人的高价竞争 |
| 563 | over who gets to control that invisible web. | 谁能控制那隐形网络 |
| 564 | The rules of global trade are literally being rewritten | 全球贸易规则实际上正在被改写 |
| 565 | while we watch. | 当我们看着。 |
| 566 | Before we go, we want to leave you | 走之前,我们想离开你 |
| 567 | with a final provocative thought, | 以最后的挑衅思想, |
| 568 | something for you to mull over and explore | 让你沉思探索的东西 |
| 569 | long after we finish today. | 在今天结束很久之后 |
| 570 | Yeah, it's a big question | 是啊,这是一个大问题 |
| 571 | about the future landscape of the world. | 关于未来世界的景观。 |
| 572 | If China actually succeeds in this massive plan, | 如果中国真的能成功 |
| 573 | if they successfully force the use of their own currency | 如果成功强制使用自己的货币 |
| 574 | and their own data for global shipping, | 以及它们自己的全球航运数据, |
| 575 | will other large economies try to do the exact same thing? | 其他大经济体也会这样做吗? |
| 576 | That is the million dollar question. | 这是一百万美元的问题。 |
| 577 | Could our currently unified | 我们目前能否统一 |
| 578 | global ocean network soon fracture? | 全球海洋网络很快就断裂了? |
| 579 | Could it split into many different competing insurance zones | 会不会分成很多不同的保险区 |
| 580 | based on political alliances? | 基于政治联盟? |
| 581 | Thank you for joining us on this Deep Dive. | 谢谢你来参加这次深潜 |
| 582 | Keep asking questions about the hidden systems around you, | 继续问你周围隐藏的系统 |
| 583 | and we'll see you next time. | 下次见 |
该视频共有字幕 583 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格