创纪录顺差下人民币为何还在涨？出口商的利润正被升值吃掉｜附文
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to The Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到深渊 |
| 0:01 | Today we have a really interesting topic for you. | 今天我们有个非常有趣的话题 |
| 0:03 | Yeah, we are looking at a very strange question today. | 是的,我们今天正在研究一个非常奇怪的问题。 |
| 0:07 | Can a country's money become too strong? | 一个国家的金钱能否变得太强大? |
| 0:10 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:11 | And we are using a single really detailed article for this. | 我们用一个非常详细的文章来做这个。 |
| 0:14 | It is from the | 这是从 |
| 0:15 | South China Morning Post. | 南华早报. |
| 0:16 | Which is a great source for this because, | 这是伟大的来源,因为, |
| 0:18 | you know, normally we think strong money is a good thing. | 你知道,通常我们认为强钱是好事。 |
展开字幕全文（351 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to The Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到深渊 |
| 2 | Today we have a really interesting topic for you. | 今天我们有个非常有趣的话题 |
| 3 | Yeah, we are looking at a very strange question today. | 是的,我们今天正在研究一个非常奇怪的问题。 |
| 4 | Can a country's money become too strong? | 一个国家的金钱能否变得太强大? |
| 5 | Right. | 对 |
| 6 | And we are using a single really detailed article for this. | 我们用一个非常详细的文章来做这个。 |
| 7 | It is from the | 这是从 |
| 8 | South China Morning Post. | 南华早报. |
| 9 | Which is a great source for this because, | 这是伟大的来源,因为, |
| 10 | you know, normally we think strong money is a good thing. | 你知道,通常我们认为强钱是好事。 |
| 11 | I mean, as a tourist, it is great. | 我的意思是,作为一个游客,这是伟大的。 |
| 12 | You travel abroad and your coffee's cheaper. | 你出国旅行,咖啡更便宜 |
| 13 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 14 | Your hotel costs less. | 你的旅馆费用少了。 |
| 15 | The money in your pocket buys more stuff. | 你口袋里的钱能买更多东西 |
| 16 | But today we want to show you the hidden side of that. | 但今天我们想告诉你 隐藏的一面。 |
| 17 | For global businesses, | 对于全球企业, |
| 18 | a tiny change in money value is a huge deal. | 金钱价值的微小变化是一个巨大的交易。 |
| 19 | It can completely wipe out their profits. | 它可以完全消灭他们的利润. |
| 20 | It really acts like a hidden tax. | 这真的像隐藏税。 |
| 21 | It hurts the people who make and sell goods to the world. | 它伤害了制造和出售商品给世界的人们. |
| 22 | So our mission today is to track a massive financial chain reaction. | 因此,我们今天的任务是追踪一个巨大的金融链反应。 |
| 23 | We will see how huge global sales lead to strong money. | 我们将看到,全球销售额巨大,可带来强劲的资金。 |
| 24 | Right. | 对 |
| 25 | And then how that strong money causes market panic. | 如此强大的金钱如何引起市场恐慌。 |
| 26 | And finally, how a government has to step in to stop that panic. | 最后,政府必须如何介入来阻止这种恐慌。 |
| 27 | It is a wild ride. | 这是一个疯狂的旅程。 |
| 28 | But we have to start at the very beginning. | 但我们必须从头开始。 |
| 29 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 30 | The first link in the chain. | 链条中的第一个环节. |
| 31 | We need to look at the sheer amount of | 我们需要看看... |
| 32 | money flowing into China right now. | 钱现在流入中国 |
| 33 | This is the foundation of the whole problem. | 这是整个问题的基础。 |
| 34 | China sells far more things to the world than it buys from the world. | 中国向世界出售的东西远多于向世界购买的东西. |
| 35 | Right. | 对 |
| 36 | The country makes more money from exports than it spends on imports. | 国家从出口中赚的钱比用于进口的钱还多。 |
| 37 | People in finance call this a trade surplus. | 金融界人士称此为贸易盈余. |
| 38 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 39 | The money comes in, but it just doesn't go back out. | 钱是进来的,但它只是不回来。 |
| 40 | And the scale of this is, well, it is hard to imagine. | 这个规模是很难想象的 |
| 41 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 42 | The numbers from January to September of 2026 reached a record. | 2026年1月至9月的数字创下纪录. |
| 43 | It hit 938.1 billion US dollars. | 9,381亿美元。 |
| 44 | We're at almost a trillion dollars. | 我们差不多有1万亿美元。 |
| 45 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 46 | Just in nine months. | 9个月后 |
| 47 | Yeah, just nine months. | 是啊,只是九个月。 |
| 48 | And financial analysts expect the final number for 2026 to grow even | 金融分析家预计2026年的最后数字会增长到平 |
| 49 | larger. | 大一点 |
| 50 | They think it will easily pass the old 2025 record. | 他们认为这很容易通过2025年的旧纪录. |
| 51 | And that old record was $1.2 trillion. | 以前的纪录是1.2万亿美元。 |
| 52 | That is just a mountain of cash. | 这只是一山现金。 |
| 53 | So I like to use an analogy for this. | 所以我喜欢用一个类比来做这个。 |
| 54 | I imagine China as a massive global store. | 我想象中国是一个巨大的全球商店。 |
| 55 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 56 | I like that. | 我喜欢 |
| 57 | Customers from all over the world come in to buy things. | 世界各地的客户都来买东西 |
| 58 | They buy electronics, clothes, car parts. | 他们买电子、衣服、汽车零件 |
| 59 | Right. | 对 |
| 60 | But these international buyers, they do not pay in Chinese yuan. | 但是这些国际买家,他们不以中国人民币支付. |
| 61 | They pay in foreign money. | 他们以外国货币支付。 |
| 62 | Mostly US dollars. | 多数是美元。 |
| 63 | Because, well, the global financial system runs on the US dollar. | 因为,全球金融系统靠美元运作。 |
| 64 | Right. | 对 |
| 65 | So this giant store collects billions of dollars every single week. | 这家大型商店每周收集数十亿美元。 |
| 66 | But here is the catch. | 但这是捕捉。 |
| 67 | The people running the store live in China. | 经营该店的人住在中国. |
| 68 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 69 | They cannot pay their local rent with US dollars. | 他们不能用美元支付当地租金。 |
| 70 | They cannot buy groceries with foreign cash. | 他们不能用外国现金购买杂货。 |
| 71 | No, they cannot. | 不,他们不能。 |
| 72 | They have to pay their factory workers in local yuan. | 他们必须用当地人民币支付工厂工人的工资. |
| 73 | And they must pay their local taxes in yuan, | 他们必须用人民币交税 |
| 74 | too. | 也一样。 |
| 75 | So this creates a massive daily chore. | 因此,这创造了一个巨大的日常负担。 |
| 76 | These business owners must trade their US dollars for yuan. | 这些企业主必须用美元换取人民币。 |
| 77 | They take their foreign cash to their local bank, and they ask the bank to swap it for local money. | 他们把他们的外国现金带到当地银行,他们要求银行将其换成当地货币. |
| 78 | And think about the scale. | 且想天秤. |
| 79 | Millions of business owners are all going to the bank. | 数百万企业主都会去银行 |
| 80 | Yep. | 对 |
| 81 | They are all holding US dollars, and they all demand yuan. | 他们都持有美元, 他们都要求人民币。 |
| 82 | It is just basic supply and demand. | 它只是基本供求。 |
| 83 | Everyone wants to buy the exact same thing. | 每个人都想买一样的东西 |
| 84 | Right. | 对 |
| 85 | And when demand is that high, the price of the yuan goes up. | 而当需求如此高时,人民币的价格就会上涨. |
| 86 | The banks realize everyone desperately needs this local money, so they charge more for it. | 银行意识到每个人都迫切需要这些当地的钱,所以要多收点钱. |
| 87 | They give back fewer yuan for every dollar. | 他们每块钱还钱少一点 |
| 88 | The local money gets stronger compared to foreign money. | 与外国货币相比,当地货币变得更加强大. |
| 89 | And this action is called currency appreciation. | 这个动作叫做货币升值。 |
| 90 | The local money gains value. | 当地货币增值。 |
| 91 | Which brings us to the real problem. | 这给我们带来了真正的问题。 |
| 92 | Why is this | 为什么是这个 |
| 93 | strong money actually terrible news for the exporter? | 对出口者来说, |
| 94 | Yeah, let's get into that. | 是啊,让我们开始吧。 |
| 95 | Because the South China Morning Post article shares a | 因为"南华早报"的文章分享了 |
| 96 | perfect example of this pain. | 完美的例子 这种痛苦。 |
| 97 | It tells the story of a man named Kevin Li. | 讲述了一个叫李凯文的人的故事. |
| 98 | He exports textiles from Shanghai. | 他从上海出口纺织品. |
| 99 | Right. | 对 |
| 100 | And his clients were mostly in the United States. | 而他的客户大多在美国. |
| 101 | So because his clients live in America, they pay him in dollars. | 所以因为他的客户住在美国,他们用美元支付他. |
| 102 | And he agrees to a price months in advance. | 他同意提前几个月定价 |
| 103 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 104 | And his situation perfectly shows this trap. | 他的情况完美地显示了这个陷阱。 |
| 105 | In 2025, the exchange rate was steady. | 2025年,汇率稳定. |
| 106 | One US dollar bought more than seven yuan. | 一美元收购人民币7元以上. |
| 107 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 108 | So he could plan his business around that rate. | 这样他就可以按这个费率来规划自己的生意. |
| 109 | He knew exactly how much local | 他很清楚当地有多少人 |
| 110 | money he would get for every shirt he sold. | 他每卖一件衬衫都能得到钱 |
| 111 | But then things changed. | 但后来事情变了。 |
| 112 | Right. | 对 |
| 113 | The yuan gained 4.3% in value this year. | 今年人民币增收4.3%。 |
| 114 | Right. | 对 |
| 115 | Now, one US dollar only buys about 6.68 yuan. | 现在,一美元只购买约6.68元人民币. |
| 116 | To a tourist, a 4.3% change is nothing. | 对游客来说,4.3%的改变不算什么。 |
| 117 | You probably would not even notice it on a restaurant | 你可能不会在餐厅看到 |
| 118 | bill. | 比尔。 |
| 119 | No, not at all. | 不,一点也不。 |
| 120 | But for Kevin's business, it is a disaster. | 但对于凯文来说,这是一场灾难。 |
| 121 | Let's look at why. | 让我们看看为什么。 |
| 122 | His profit margins are very thin. | 他的利润率很低 |
| 123 | The article notes his margin last year was only about 7%. | 文章指出他去年的比值只有7%左右. |
| 124 | Let's do the simple math on that for you. | 让我们做一个简单的数学 给你。 |
| 125 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 126 | So if Kevin sells a large order of fabric for $100, he only keeps $7 as profit. | 所以如果凯文以100美元的价格卖出一大笔布料,他只保留7美元作为利润. |
| 127 | Right. | 对 |
| 128 | The other $93 pay for his costs. | 其他93美元支付他的费用。 |
| 129 | He has to buy raw cotton. | 他必须购买生棉。 |
| 130 | He has to pay for shipping. | 他必须支付运费。 |
| 131 | He has to pay his workers. | 他必须支付他的工人。 |
| 132 | And those small profit margins, they are very common in global trade. | 这些小利润率在全球贸易中非常普遍。 |
| 133 | Because companies compete fiercely, right? | 因为公司竞争激烈 对吧? |
| 134 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 135 | They keep prices low to win contracts. | 它们保持低价以赢得合同。 |
| 136 | They make their money by selling | 他们靠卖钱赚钱 |
| 137 | huge volumes, not by making a big profit on each single item. | 巨大的数量,不是通过 在每一个单项的巨额利润。 |
| 138 | So if his money loses 4.3% just in the exchange rate, his 7% profit is basically gone. | 所以,如果他的钱仅以汇率损失了4.3%,那么他的7%利润基本上就消失了。 |
| 139 | Almost entirely gone. | 几乎全没了 |
| 140 | He gets fewer yuan from the bank, | 他从银行得到的钱更少 |
| 141 | but his rent and his worker costs, they stay exactly the same. | 但他的房租和工钱都一样 |
| 142 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 143 | So every dollar he changes now just feels like a physical loss. | 所以他现在改变的每一美元 都只是感觉像一个物理损失。 |
| 144 | He watches his hard work disappear right at the bank counter. | 他在银行柜台看着他的辛勤工作消失 |
| 145 | It is incredibly frustrating for these business owners. | 对这些企业主来说,这是令人难以置信的挫折。 |
| 146 | But wait, why doesn't he just raise his prices? | 但是,等等,他为什么不只是提高价格? |
| 147 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 148 | Well, if the money exchange hurts him, he should just charge the American buyers more money. | 如果货币交易伤害了他 他应该向美国买家收取更多钱 |
| 149 | Like ask for $105 instead of $100. | 就像要求105美元而不是100美元 |
| 150 | He can't really do that. | 他不能真的这样做。 |
| 151 | The global competition is too tough. | 全球竞争太激烈。 |
| 152 | Oh, because they will just go somewhere else. | 因为他们会去别的地方 |
| 153 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 154 | If Kevin raises his prices, his buyers in the U.S. will simply call a different factory. | 如果凯文提高价格,他在美国的买家只会叫另一个工厂. |
| 155 | They will buy the textiles from Vietnam or India instead. | 他们将从越南或印度购买纺织品。 |
| 156 | Right. | 对 |
| 157 | The buyers do not care about his currency problems. | 买家不在乎他的货币问题 |
| 158 | They just want the best price. | 他们只想得到最好的价钱 |
| 159 | So Kevin is completely trapped. | 所以凯文被完全困住了 |
| 160 | In the article, he actually calls it a prisoner's dilemma. | 在文章中,他实际上称之为囚犯困境. |
| 161 | Which means a person faces two bad choices. | 这意味着一个人面临两个糟糕的选择。 |
| 162 | There is no winning move. | 没有胜利的举动。 |
| 163 | Let's look at his two choices. | 让我们看看他的两个选择。 |
| 164 | If he holds onto his U.S. dollars in weights, | 如果他持有他的美元重量, |
| 165 | the yuan might keep getting stronger. | 人民币可能会越来越强大 |
| 166 | Right. | 对 |
| 167 | And then he loses even more money tomorrow. | 然后他明天会损失更多钱 |
| 168 | But if he changes his dollars to yuan right now, he locks in his bad rate. | 但是如果他现在把美元换成人民币,他就会锁定他的坏利率. |
| 169 | He takes a definite loss today. | 他今天损失惨重 |
| 170 | It is a complete lose-lose situation for him. | 对他来说,这是一个完全失败的局面。 |
| 171 | And that lose-lose feeling breeds deep fear. | 这种失落的感觉 会产生深深的恐惧 |
| 172 | And fear moves financial markets faster than anything else. | 而恐惧使金融市场比其他任何东西都快. |
| 173 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 174 | When thousands of business owners feel trapped, like Kevin, | 当成千上万的业主感到被困, 像凯文, |
| 175 | their individual fear turns into a massive market panic. | 他们个人的恐惧变成了巨大的市场恐慌。 |
| 176 | The article mentions people copying each other in a panic. | 文章提到人们在恐慌中互相抄袭. |
| 177 | He calls this hurting behavior. | 他称之为伤害行为 |
| 178 | Like a herd of animals running together. | 像一群动物一起跑 |
| 179 | Yeah, but instead of a herd of sheep, I think of a crowded theater. | 是的,但是,不是一群羊, 我认为是一个拥挤的剧院。 |
| 180 | A crowded theater is a really good way to picture market psychology. | 一个拥挤的剧场是描绘市场心理学的好方法。 |
| 181 | Imagine someone yells fire in that theater. | 想象一下有人在剧院里喊火 |
| 182 | One person runs for the door, then five people run. | 一个人跑门,然后五个人跑。 |
| 183 | And suddenly everyone is running and pushing. | 突然间,每个人都在奔跑和推动。 |
| 184 | Right. | 对 |
| 185 | But in this financial situation, the fire is just their own money losing value. | 但在这种财政形势下,火只是他们自己的钱失去价值. |
| 186 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 187 | They all rush the bank at the exact same time. | 他们都在同一时间催促银行 |
| 188 | They expect the yuan to keep rising in value. | 他们期望人民币不断升值. |
| 189 | Nobody wants to be the last person holding U.S. dollars. | 没有人想成为最后一个持有美元的人. |
| 190 | So they rush to sell their dollars and buy yuan immediately. | 于是他们急于卖掉自己的美元,立即购买人民币. |
| 191 | They want to get through the door before the exchange rate gets even worse. | 他们想在汇率恶化之前穿过门. |
| 192 | But everyone rushing to the bank at the same time creates a dangerous cycle. | 但每个人同时匆忙赶往银行,造成了一个危险的循环. |
| 193 | It does. | 没错 |
| 194 | Millions of people selling dollars and demanding yuan | 成百上千万人卖钱卖钱卖钱 |
| 195 | forces the value of the yuan even higher. | 迫使人民币价值更高。 |
| 196 | Right. | 对 |
| 197 | And action causes a result. | 行动会产生结果。 |
| 198 | And that result causes more of the same action. | 结果导致更多的行动。 |
| 199 | We call this a feedback loop. | 我们称之为反馈循环。 |
| 200 | The more people sell dollars, the stronger the yuan gets. | 卖美元的人越多,人民币就越强. |
| 201 | And the stronger the yuan gets, the faster the remaining people panic. | 而人民币越强,剩下的人恐慌越快. |
| 202 | They see the rate getting worse, so they sell even faster. | 他们看到利率越来越低,所以卖得更快. |
| 203 | It feeds itself. | 它能养活自己 |
| 204 | And the timing makes this cycle incredibly dangerous right now. | 时间使得这个循环非常危险 |
| 205 | The source material notes that December is a critical month. | 来源材料指出,12月是一个关键月份。 |
| 206 | It is the hardest month for this specific problem. | 这是解决这一具体问题最困难的月份。 |
| 207 | Why is December so bad? | 为什么十二月这么糟糕? |
| 208 | Because December brings the end of the financial year. | 因为12月是财政年度的结束。 |
| 209 | It brings huge unavoidable bills. | 它带来了巨大的不可避免的账单。 |
| 210 | Oh, right. | 对 |
| 211 | Exporters must pay their local taxes before the year ends. | 出口商必须在年终前缴纳当地税款。 |
| 212 | They also have to pay their local material suppliers to close their accounts. | 他们还必须支付当地物资供应商的货款才能关闭账户。 |
| 213 | And they have to pay end of year wages, plus bonuses to their factory workers. | 他们必须支付年终工资,外加给工厂工人的奖金. |
| 214 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 215 | And all these bills must be paid in local yuan. | 而所有这些账单都必须用当地人民币支付. |
| 216 | The government and the workers, they do not accept U.S. dollars. | 政府和工人,他们不接受美元。 |
| 217 | So the exporters lose the option to wait. | 因此出口商失去了等待的选择. |
| 218 | Yes. | 对 |
| 219 | In July, Kevin might hold his dollars for a few weeks. | 7月,凯文可能持有他的美元数周. |
| 220 | He might hope the rate improves. | 他也许希望利率会提高。 |
| 221 | But in December, he needs cash today. | 但在12月,他今天需要现金。 |
| 222 | He is forced to sell his dollars at a bad rate. | 他被迫以糟糕的价格出售自己的美元。 |
| 223 | And this forced selling makes the panic much, much worse. | 而这种强迫出售使得恐慌更加糟糕. |
| 224 | It pushes the yuan's value up even faster. | 将人民币价值提升更快. |
| 225 | The banks see this massive desperate demand for yuan, so the price climbs even higher. | 银行看到人民币的巨大绝望需求,因此物价攀升. |
| 226 | Millions of panic sellers are forced to the same exit at the same time. | 数以百万计的恐慌卖家被迫同时进入同一出口. |
| 227 | And that kind of pressure, it just breaks financial systems. | 那种压力, 它只是打破了金融系统。 |
| 228 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 229 | The people actually making and selling the goods are losing all their profits. | 实际生产和销售这些商品的人们正在失去所有利润。 |
| 230 | If everyone is rushing to the same exit, doesn't that just break the system? | 如果大家都急着去同一个出口 那不就是破坏系统吗? |
| 231 | Who steps in to stop the panic? | 谁来阻止恐慌? |
| 232 | The government steps in. | 政府介入。 |
| 233 | Specifically, the People's Bank of China acts as the central bank. | 具体而言,中国人民银行是中央银行。 |
| 234 | They act as a referee to calm things down. | 他们充当裁判来平息事态. |
| 235 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 236 | They introduced a new rule to fix this. | 他们引入了一条新的规则来解决这个问题. |
| 237 | They changed a rule that forces banks to lock away foreign money. | 他们改变了一个规则,强迫银行锁住外国的钱。 |
| 238 | Okay, let's explain that. | 好吧,让我们解释一下。 |
| 239 | It is called the Foreign Exchange Reserve Requirement Ratio. | 它称为外汇储备要求比率。 |
| 240 | That is a very long term. | 这是一个非常长期的问题。 |
| 241 | It is. | 没错 |
| 242 | Let's break it down into plain English. | 让我们把它细分为简单的英语。 |
| 243 | It is a rule forcing regular banks to lock away a specific percentage of the foreign money they hold. | 这是一条规则,迫使正规银行将持有的外国资金的一定比例锁起来。 |
| 244 | Right. | 对 |
| 245 | They put it in a vault and cannot touch it. | 他们把它放在保险库里 不能碰它 |
| 246 | Think of it like building an artificial dam in a river. | 把它想成在河里建造人工水坝 |
| 247 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 248 | A regular bank holds billions in U.S. dollars. | 一家正规银行持有数十亿美元美元. |
| 249 | The central bank tells them they must lock a certain percentage of those dollars away. | 中央银行告诉他们,他们必须把其中一定比例的美元锁起来。 |
| 250 | So they cannot trade them on the open market. | 因此,他们不能在公开市场上进行交易。 |
| 251 | And they cannot lend them out to businesses. | 他们不能把它们借给企业。 |
| 252 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 253 | The central bank raised this rule by two percentage points. | 中央银行将这一规则提高了两个百分点。 |
| 254 | It now sits at six percent. | 它现在占6%。 |
| 255 | And this new policy starts on November 15th. | 而这项新政策从11月15日开始. |
| 256 | The article says this simple rule change will lock up 24 billion U.S. dollars. | 文章称这一简单规则的变更将锁定240亿美元美元. |
| 257 | Pulling 24 billion dollars out of the active market changes everything. | 从活跃的市场中拉出240亿美元,改变了一切. |
| 258 | It creates a sudden shortage of U.S. dollars in the banking system. | 这造成银行系统突然短缺美元. |
| 259 | Let me make sure I follow the logic here. | 让我确保我遵循逻辑。 |
| 260 | By making dollars slightly harder to find, the central bank changes the balance of supply | 通过让美元更难找到, 中央银行改变供应平衡 |
| 261 | and demand again. | 并再次提出要求。 |
| 262 | Yes, they do. | 是的,他们这样做。 |
| 263 | They put a massive wall in front of that panic loop. | 他们把一堵大墙 在恐慌圈前。 |
| 264 | They force the market to slow down and take a breath. | 它们迫使市场放慢速度,喘口气. |
| 265 | And the results were immediate. | 结果是立即的。 |
| 266 | They were very visible. | 它们非常明显。 |
| 267 | Right after the central bank announced this news, | 就在中央银行宣布这个消息之后 |
| 268 | the yuan actually weakened a little bit. | 人民币实际上有点弱了 |
| 269 | The crazy fast rise stopped. | 疯狂的快速崛起停止了. |
| 270 | The panic buying paused. | 购买的恐慌暂停。 |
| 271 | It is wild how a single rule change could do that. | 一个规则的改变是疯狂的。 |
| 272 | It suddenly freezes 24 billion dollars. | 它突然冻结了240亿美元。 |
| 273 | And it instantly alters the behavior of thousands of businesses across the country. | 它立即改变了全国上千家企业的行为。 |
| 274 | Our exporter, Kevin Lee, actually told a reporter he paused his money changing. | 我们的出口商Kevin Lee 告诉记者 他暂停了换钱 |
| 275 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 276 | So he finally got a breather. | 所以他终于喘口气了 |
| 277 | He did. | 没错 |
| 278 | The panic stopped pushing him. | 恐慌不再催促他。 |
| 279 | He can wait and see what happens next. | 他可以等着看接下来会发生什么 |
| 280 | The central bank proved they can still control the speed of the market. | 央行证明他们仍然可以控制市场的速度. |
| 281 | They stopped the bleeding for now. | 他们暂时止血了 |
| 282 | But we must look closer at the actual fix. | 但是,我们必须更仔细地研究实际的解决方案。 |
| 283 | Did they solve the core issue or just hide it for a while? | 是他们解决了核心问题 还是隐瞒了一会儿? |
| 284 | The evidence suggests they only hit it. | 证据显示他们只打了它。 |
| 285 | This new rule is just a temporary rest. | 这个新规则只是暂时的休息. |
| 286 | Locking up dollars in a vault doesn't stop the real problem. | 把美元锁在保险库里并不能阻止真正的问题. |
| 287 | No, it does not. | 不,它没有。 |
| 288 | The long-term trend of the yuan going up is still there. | 人民币上扬的长期趋势仍然存在. |
| 289 | The central bank just hit the pause button. | 央行刚刚按了暂停按钮 |
| 290 | 文章为此引用了Lillian Lai. | |
| 291 | She's an analyst at Moody's Ratings. | 她是穆迪评分公司的分析师. |
| 292 | Right. | 对 |
| 293 | And she agrees with that view. | 她同意这个观点。 |
| 294 | She says this move will moderate the rise. | 她说这个动作能缓解上升 |
| 295 | It will slow things down, but it won't reverse the trend completely. | 这会减缓事态的发展,但不会完全扭转趋势. |
| 296 | The reason it cannot reverse the trend goes back to our very first point today. | 它不能扭转这一趋势的原因可追溯到我们今天的第一点。 |
| 297 | We have to look at the giant trade surplus again. | 我们必须再次审视巨大的贸易盈余。 |
| 298 | Yes. | 对 |
| 299 | The world still really wants to buy Chinese exports. | 世界仍然真正想购买中国的出口. |
| 300 | The massive store is still open for business. | 大型商店仍然营业. |
| 301 | International customers are still pouring billions of U.S. dollars into the country | 国际客户仍然向该国注入数十亿美元 |
| 302 | every single day. | 每一天都这样 |
| 303 | So the underlying pressure remains constant. | 因此基础压力保持不变. |
| 304 | As long as the massive trade surplus exists, | 只要大量贸易顺差存在 |
| 305 | the local currency will face upward pressure. | 当地货币将面临向上的压力。 |
| 306 | You can build a dam to hold back the water, but the river keeps flowing. | 你可以建个水坝来挡水,但河水一直流着. |
| 307 | And the water level behind the dam will just keep rising. | 水坝后面的水位会继续上升 |
| 308 | The article actually proves this is just a temporary patch, | 这篇文章证明这只是一个临时补丁 |
| 309 | because the central bank already tried a different trick earlier this year | 因为今年早些时候 央行已经尝试了另一种手段 |
| 310 | to fix this exact same problem. | 解决同样的问题。 |
| 311 | That is right. | 没错 |
| 312 | Back in February, they changed some different rules. | 早在二月,他们改变了一些不同的规则. |
| 313 | They wanted to encourage businesses to hold on to their U.S. dollars. | 他们想鼓励企业持有他们的美元. |
| 314 | They wanted to stop the panic selling back then, too. | 当时他们也想阻止恐慌的销售 |
| 315 | They tried to make holding dollars less risky for businesses. | 他们试图降低持有美元对企业的风险. |
| 316 | They hoped this would weaken the yuan naturally over time. | 他们希望这能随着时间的推移自然削弱人民币. |
| 317 | But it didn't work long term. | 但从长远来看并没有奏效. |
| 318 | The global demand for goods was just too strong. | 全球对商品的需求太强。 |
| 319 | The dollars kept piling up. | 美元不断积聚。 |
| 320 | And the yuan kept getting stronger anyway. | 人民币越来越强了 |
| 321 | And now, just a few months later, they had to step in again. | 现在,仅仅几个月后, 他们不得不再次介入。 |
| 322 | They had to freeze $24 billion just to buy some more time. | 他们不得不冻结240亿美元 只为了争取更多的时间。 |
| 323 | It really shows how powerful global trade forces are. | 这表明全球贸易力量的强大程度。 |
| 324 | Even a massive central bank struggles to fight a giant trade surplus. | 甚至一个庞大的中央银行也为对抗巨大的贸易盈余而挣扎. |
| 325 | The entire cycle highlights the deep connections in global finance. | 整个周期突出了全球金融的深刻联系。 |
| 326 | And action in one place always creates a reaction somewhere else. | 在一个地方的行动总是在别的地方产生反应。 |
| 327 | It does. | 没错 |
| 328 | Let's pull all these threads together for everyone. | 让我们把这些线拉在一起,为大家服务。 |
| 329 | OK. | 摆 |
| 330 | So massive global sales create a huge pile of foreign cash. | 如此大规模的全球销售创造了大量的外国现金。 |
| 331 | Right. | 对 |
| 332 | And changing that cash creates a super strong local currency. | 现金的改变创造了一种超强的当地货币。 |
| 333 | Ironically, that strong money wipes out the profits of the very businesses doing the selling. | 具有讽刺意味的是,强势的金钱抹去了从事销售业务的企业的利润。 |
| 334 | Which sparks a dangerous market panic. | 这引发了危险的市场恐慌。 |
| 335 | Exporters rush to sell their dollars. | 出口商急于出售他们的美元。 |
| 336 | And that makes a problem even worse. | 这会使问题更严重。 |
| 337 | It forces the central bank to lock out billions of dollars just to give businesses a break. | 它迫使央行锁定数十亿美元 只是为了让企业休息。 |
| 338 | The entire cycle shows how fragile global trade really is. | 整个周期表明全球贸易确实十分脆弱。 |
| 339 | Success in one area creates a massive headache in another area. | 一个领域的成功在另一个领域造成了巨大的头痛。 |
| 340 | It is fascinating. | 这很迷人。 |
| 341 | Before we go, I want to leave you with a final question to ponder on your own. | 在出发前,我想给你留个最后的问题 让你自己考虑一下 |
| 342 | It is important to think about the bigger picture here. | 重要的是要考虑更大的情况。 |
| 343 | We always assume selling more goods is better for a country. | 我们总是认为卖更多商品对一个国家更好 |
| 344 | If a country's businesses are so successful at selling to the world | 如果一个国家的企业如此成功地向世界出售 |
| 345 | that they actually break their own money system? | 他们真的打破了自己的货币系统? |
| 346 | Is there a point where exporting too much becomes a danger to a country's economy? | 出口过多是否会威胁到一个国家的经济? |
| 347 | It is a delicate balance to consider. | 这是一个需要考虑的微妙平衡。 |
| 348 | Thank you for joining us for this deep dive. | 谢谢你加入我们的深潜行动 |
| 349 | We explored some complex ideas today. | 我们今天探讨了一些复杂的想法。 |
| 350 | Keep asking questions. | 继续问 |
| 351 | And keep exploring. | 继续探索 |
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