C919交付迟缓，GE却签下129亿美元发动机大单：谁在赌未
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Imagine ordering a brand new car. | 想象一下订购一辆全新的车。 |
| 0:02 | Okay, you go to the dealership you pick out the color, right pretty normal so far | 好吧,你去经销商 你挑出颜色, 右正常到现在 |
| 0:07 | But then the dealer says something crazy. | 但庄家却说了些疯狂的话 |
| 0:09 | He insists you also buy 14 spare engines on the exact same day | 他坚持你当天也要买十四台备用引擎 |
| 0:13 | Wow, I mean that sounds completely absurd. | 哇,我的意思是,这听起来完全荒谬。 |
| 0:15 | It really does cars usually run fine for years | 汽车的运行通常会好几年 |
| 0:18 | You may change the oil right, but you do not just replace the whole motor. | 你可能会改变石油的正确, 但你不只是更换整个发动机。 |
| 0:22 | No, definitely not | 不,绝对不是 |
| 0:24 | well last week this exact strange scenario happened in global aviation and | 上周,全球航空和 |
| 0:30 | It involved nearly 13 billion dollars. | 它涉及近130亿美元。 |
展开字幕全文（284 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imagine ordering a brand new car. | 想象一下订购一辆全新的车。 |
| 2 | Okay, you go to the dealership you pick out the color, right pretty normal so far | 好吧,你去经销商 你挑出颜色, 右正常到现在 |
| 3 | But then the dealer says something crazy. | 但庄家却说了些疯狂的话 |
| 4 | He insists you also buy 14 spare engines on the exact same day | 他坚持你当天也要买十四台备用引擎 |
| 5 | Wow, I mean that sounds completely absurd. | 哇,我的意思是,这听起来完全荒谬。 |
| 6 | It really does cars usually run fine for years | 汽车的运行通常会好几年 |
| 7 | You may change the oil right, but you do not just replace the whole motor. | 你可能会改变石油的正确, 但你不只是更换整个发动机。 |
| 8 | No, definitely not | 不,绝对不是 |
| 9 | well last week this exact strange scenario happened in global aviation and | 上周,全球航空和 |
| 10 | It involved nearly 13 billion dollars. | 它涉及近130亿美元。 |
| 11 | That is just a massive amount of money. | 这只是一大笔钱。 |
| 12 | It is huge | 这么大 |
| 13 | So welcome to the deep dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 14 | We are looking at a record-breaking aviation deal today | 今天的航空交易破纪录 |
| 15 | We want to see what this deal tells us about global trade | 我们想看看这个交易告诉我们 全球贸易 |
| 16 | Yeah, and we will also look at the massive challenge of actually building passenger airplanes. | 是啊,我们也会看看 巨大的挑战 实际建造客机。 |
| 17 | Exactly | 没错 |
| 18 | When you sit on the commercial flight, you might think one single company built that plane | 当你坐在商业航班上的时候 你可能会认为是一家公司建造了那架飞机 |
| 19 | You know, you just see one logo painted on the tail right like Boeing or Airbus | 你知道,你只是看到一个标志 涂在尾巴右像波音或空中巴士 |
| 20 | Yeah, but an airplane is actually a giant complex global puzzle | 是的,但飞机其实是一个巨大的复杂的全球谜题 |
| 21 | Millions of parts come from dozens of different countries today. | 今天,数百万部分来自数十个不同国家。 |
| 22 | We are exploring what happens when those countries stop sharing | 我们正在探索当这些国家停止分享时会发生什么 |
| 23 | What happens when they fight over the puzzle pieces and the scale of this? | 当他们争夺谜题和这个规模时会发生什么? |
| 24 | Specific bubble is truly staggering. | 特定的气泡确实惊人。 |
| 25 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 26 | We are talking about an event called the China International Import Expo | 我们说的是一个叫做中国国际进口博览会的活动 |
| 27 | It is a massive global trade fair companies from all over the world go there to sign big contracts | 是一个大型的全球贸易博览会公司 来自世界各地 去那里签署大合同 |
| 28 | Right. | 对 |
| 29 | So GE aerospace just walked away from this expo with deals worth | 因此,GE航空航天刚刚离开 这个博览会 交易价值 |
| 30 | 12.9 billion dollars | 129亿美元 |
| 31 | 12.9 billion that is amazing for just a few days of work | 129亿,这在几天的工作里是惊人的 |
| 32 | It really is it is actually a record amount for GE at this specific event and a huge chunk of that money comes from | 这其实是GE在这个具体活动中的创纪录的金额 而其中一大笔钱来自 |
| 33 | One single buyer, right? | 一个买家,对吧? |
| 34 | Exactly China Eastern Airlines just bought 14 spare engines | 正是中国东部 航空公司刚买了14台备用引擎 |
| 35 | And these are not for their older planes | 这些不是他们老的飞机用的 |
| 36 | They are for a brand new passenger plane called the c-919 right the c-919 | 这是一架全新的客机 叫C -919对C |
| 37 | Yeah, this is China's homegrown commercial jet the government built it specifically to challenge Boeing and Airbus | 是啊,这是中国本土的商用喷气式飞机 政府专门建造它来挑战波音和空中客车 |
| 38 | Those two Western companies totally control the global market for narrow-body jets right now | 这两个西方公司现在完全控制着 狭体喷气机的全球市场 |
| 39 | And you know, we should probably quickly explain what a narrow-body jet is | 你知道,我们也许应该 快速解释 什么是窄体喷气机 |
| 40 | Oh sure | 当然 |
| 41 | It's basically the standard passenger jet with just one single aisle down the middle, right? | 基本上是标准客机 中间只有一个过道 对吧? |
| 42 | The ones you fly on for short domestic trips all the time exactly. | 那些你飞去 短时间的国内旅行 确切的时间。 |
| 43 | Okay, they carry about 150 people | 好吧,他们携带大约150人 |
| 44 | Well, the c-919 relies on a very advanced engine. | C-919型机车依赖于非常先进的发动机. |
| 45 | It is called the leap-1c | 这叫跳跃1c |
| 46 | It is famous for being a very fuel efficient and it is very quiet, too | 它以燃料效率很高而闻名 也非常安静 |
| 47 | But GE does not build this complex engine all by themselves. | 但是,GE并不全靠自己来建造这个复杂的引擎. |
| 48 | Do they no they do not they build it through a company called CFM | 难道他们不 他们建造它 通过公司CFM |
| 49 | International this is a joint venture which means they work together, right? | 这是一家合营企业 意味着他们合作 对吧? |
| 50 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 51 | It is a business partnership | 这是一个商业伙伴关系 |
| 52 | GE from the United States works directly with a French aerospace company. | 来自美国的GE直接与一家法国航空航天公司合作. |
| 53 | The company is named Safran. | 公司名称为萨夫兰. |
| 54 | Okay, so they team up | 好,他们一起行动 |
| 55 | Yeah, they share the expensive research. | 是啊,他们分享了昂贵的研究。 |
| 56 | They share the manufacturing costs and of course, they split the profits that makes sense | 他们分担制造成本,当然,他们分了有道理的利润 |
| 57 | But I keep coming back to my car analogy from the start the 14 spare engines | 但我从14个备用引擎开始就一直回到我的汽车类比 |
| 58 | Yeah, why do you need 14 extra engines for a fleet of brand-new airplanes? | 是啊,你为什么需要14个额外的引擎 为一队全新的飞机? |
| 59 | It just seems like a huge upfront cost a single jet engine cost millions of dollars | 这看起来就像一个巨大的前期成本 一个喷气发动机花费数百万美元 |
| 60 | Why buy so many spares right now? | 为什么现在买这么多零配件? |
| 61 | Well airplanes operate in a completely different financial reality than your personal car | 飞机在财务上的运作 完全不同于你的私人车 |
| 62 | How so a commercial jet only makes money when it is actually flying in the air, right? | 商业喷气机在空中飞行 怎么会赚钱? |
| 63 | If a plane is just sitting on the ground waiting for a minor repair. | 如果飞机只是坐在地上等待小修. |
| 64 | The airline is losing money every single minute | 航空公司每分每秒都赔钱 |
| 65 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 66 | I did not think about it like that. | 我没有那样想 |
| 67 | Yeah | 对 |
| 68 | Aviation analyst Li Hanming tracks this industry very closely and he points out a crucial fact here | 航空分析师李汉明非常密切地追踪这个行业,他在这里指出一个关键的事实. |
| 69 | China Eastern currently operates the largest fleet of c-919s in the world | 中国东方目前运营着世界上最大的C-919型机队 |
| 70 | So they are basically the main test case for this new airplane | 所以他们基本上就是这架新飞机的主要试验案例 |
| 71 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 72 | They absolutely cannot afford to wait weeks for an engine to be fixed every delayed flight ruins their schedule | 他们绝对不能等几周 引擎才能修好 每一次延迟的飞行都会毁了他们的行程 |
| 73 | It upsets paying customers. | 这让付钱的顾客不高兴 |
| 74 | Yeah, that would be a nightmare | 是啊,那会是一个噩梦 |
| 75 | It would and jet engines experience extreme physical stress every single day. | 它和喷气发动机 每天都会经历巨大的身体压力。 |
| 76 | They fly through storms | 他们飞过风暴 |
| 77 | They suck in dust and dirt. | 他们吸尘土。 |
| 78 | They need constant maintenance to stay safe | 他们需要不断的维护才能安全 |
| 79 | So if an engine shows even a tiny warning sign on the computer screen, they do not take any risks zero risks | 所以如果一个引擎在电脑屏幕上显示一个小小的警示信号 他们就不会冒任何风险 |
| 80 | And they do not try to fix the engine while it is still attached to the wing that just takes way too long | 他们不会试图修复引擎,而引擎仍然 连接在机翼上,只是需要太长的时间 |
| 81 | So what do they do? | 他们做什么的? |
| 82 | They remove the entire engine immediately. | 他们马上把整个引擎都拆除了. |
| 83 | They swap in a spare engine overnight. | 他们一夜之间用备用引擎交换 |
| 84 | Oh, I see | 原来如此 |
| 85 | Yeah | 对 |
| 86 | So the plane can safely fly again the very next morning and then the broken engine goes to a repair shop for detail checks | 飞机第二天早上就能安全地飞了 然后坏了的引擎去修理店做详细检查 |
| 87 | Exactly, and that explains the massive local support network GE is setting up right now, right? | 正是,这解释了 大规模的地方支持网络 GE 正在建立,对不对? |
| 88 | The data shows they have 10 repair centers right in China now and they have two large parts warehouses holding supplies | 数据显示,他们现在在中国有10个修理中心,有两个大部件仓库,存放用品。 |
| 89 | They want to make swapping these heavy parts as fast as possible | 他们想尽快换掉这些重的零件 |
| 90 | It sounds kind of like selling a printer just to sell the ink | 听起来就像卖打印机卖墨水 |
| 91 | That is a great way to put it you sell the airplane for a set price | 这么说来,你以固定的价格卖飞机 |
| 92 | But you make your real profit by fixing the engines for the next 20 years. | 但你通过修理未来20年的引擎 就能赚到真正的利润 |
| 93 | That is exactly how the business works | 生意就是这样办的 |
| 94 | but | 不过 |
| 95 | There is a big paradox here. | 这里有一个很大的悖论。 |
| 96 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 97 | Well, China Eastern is buying all these expensive engines to keep their planes flying right and they have these massive warehouses ready, right? | 中国东方正在购买这些昂贵的引擎 让他们的飞机能正常飞行 而且这些大型仓库都准备好了 对吧? |
| 98 | Yet the state-owned manufacturer is barely producing any airplanes to put them on the engines are waiting for planes that do not even exist yet | 但国有制造商几乎没有生产任何飞机 把它们放在引擎上 正在等待甚至还没有的飞机 |
| 99 | Yeah, the numbers really do not match up at all. | 是啊,这些数字真的不匹配 在所有。 |
| 100 | Not at all | 一点也不 |
| 101 | The manufacturer building the plane is a company called Comac. | 制造飞机的制造商是一家名为Comac的公司. |
| 102 | They have over | 他们结束了 |
| 103 | 1,000 orders waiting for the c919 | 1000个订单等待C919 |
| 104 | 1,000 orders that is huge demand. | 1000个订单,这是巨大的需求。 |
| 105 | It is massive airlines all around the world want to buy this plane | 全世界都是大型航空公司 想买这架飞机 |
| 106 | It is years of factory work yet by October of this year | 今年十月是工厂的年头 |
| 107 | Comac only delivered 10 of these planes just 10 just 10 and they delivered seven smaller regional jets Wow | 科马克只交付了其中的10架 仅交付了10架 他们交付了7架较小的区域喷气机 哇 |
| 108 | That is a massive production bottleneck | 这是一个巨大的生产瓶颈 |
| 109 | Aviation expert Dan Taylor actually tracks these delivery numbers. | 航空专家Dan Taylor 实际追踪到这些送货号码 |
| 110 | He predicted Comac would easily deliver 50 planes this year | 他预言科马克今年会轻易送50架飞机 |
| 111 | So delivering only 10 is a huge miss it is it shows something is deeply wrong with their assembly line | 所以只送10块就是大错特错 显示他们的组装线有问题 |
| 112 | but you know building an airplane is | 但你知道造飞机是 |
| 113 | Arguably the hardest manufacturing job on earth. | 可以说是世上最难制造的工作 |
| 114 | Oh, absolutely | 哦,当然 |
| 115 | You are putting together millions of individual parts. | 你拼凑了数百万个单个部分。 |
| 116 | You have miles of electrical wiring | 你有几英里的电线 |
| 117 | You need perfect quality control because well mistakes are fatal, right? | 你需要完美的质量控制 因为井错误是致命的,对不对? |
| 118 | So is this just the normal trouble of starting a huge new factory or something else going on? | 所以,这是正常的麻烦 开办一个巨大的新工厂 还是其他的事情? |
| 119 | Scaling up production is definitely tough finding experienced workers takes years | 扩大生产肯定很难找到有经验的工人 需要几年时间 |
| 120 | Boeing and Airbus spent decades perfecting their assembly lines. | 波音和空中客车花了几十年时间来完善其组装线路. |
| 121 | Yeah, they have a huge head start | 是啊,他们有一个巨大的开始 |
| 122 | They do but the core problem for Comac right now is not just an empty factory floor | 现在科马克的核心问题 不仅仅是一个空的工厂地板 |
| 123 | The real problem is an empty loading dock. | 真正的问题是空载码头. |
| 124 | What do you mean by that? | 这是什么意思? |
| 125 | Well extreme delays and getting critical parts from the United States are completely stopping production | 极端拖延和从美国获得关键部件 正在完全停止生产 |
| 126 | You simply cannot build the plane without the parts | 你根本无法建造飞机 没有零件 |
| 127 | I mean you cannot finish a massive puzzle if someone is intentionally hiding the key pieces exactly | 我是说 如果有人故意把钥匙藏起来 你就不能完成一个大谜题 |
| 128 | And this is not a normal shipping accident a cargo ship did not get stuck somewhere a storm did not delay a flight | 这不是正常的航运事故 货船没有被卡在某个地方 风暴没有延误飞行 |
| 129 | These delays are the direct result of political strategy, right? | 这些拖延是政治战略的直接结果,对吧? |
| 130 | The United States Commerce Department closely controls how sensitive technology leaves the country | 美国商务部严密控制敏感技术如何出国 |
| 131 | Okay, they issue legal documents called export licenses this year | 好吧,他们今年颁发了名为出口许可证的法律文件 |
| 132 | They have intentionally slowed down the approval of these licenses | 他们故意延缓批准这些许可证 |
| 133 | So they are deliberately delaying parts heading to China. | 所以他们故意拖延去中国的路程 |
| 134 | Yes, they are delaying civilian airplane parts on purpose | 是的,他们故意拖延民用飞机零件 |
| 135 | Okay, we need to pause our discussion here for a brief second. | 好吧,我们需要暂停 我们的讨论在这里短暂的第二。 |
| 136 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 137 | We are talking about two global superpowers using trade as a political weapon | 我们说的是两个以贸易为政治武器的全球超级大国 |
| 138 | We are just looking at the physical facts of this situation. | 我们只是在研究这种情况的实际事实。 |
| 139 | We are definitely not taking any political sides here | 我们这里绝对不带任何政治派别 |
| 140 | No, absolutely not. | 不,绝对没有。 |
| 141 | We do not endorse any political view at all | 我们根本不赞成任何政治观点 |
| 142 | We just want to explain how these government choices actually impact the building of an airplane exactly | 我们只想解释这些政府的选择 如何影响飞机的建造 |
| 143 | So what is the physical impact of these delays? | 那么这些拖延的物理影响是什么? |
| 144 | It is immediate and severe an export license is basically a strict government permission slip | 出口许可证就是政府严格的许可单 |
| 145 | Okay, the government wants to make sure civilian technology is not accidentally used for military purposes | 政府希望确保民用技术不会意外地用于军事目的 |
| 146 | Without this signed license high-tech parts cannot legally cross the border | 没有这张牌照,高科技零件就不能合法越境 |
| 147 | So the US government is using these delayed parts to gain leverage | 因此,美国政府正在利用这些延迟部分来获得影响力 |
| 148 | Yes, they want a stronger position in big trade talks with Beijing | 是的,他们想在与北京的大贸易会谈中 得到更强大的地位 |
| 149 | They are holding the parts back to get a better trade deal | 他们把零件拿回来换个更好的交易 |
| 150 | It's like a group project at school | 这就像学校的一个集体项目 |
| 151 | One person hides the glue until the group agrees to do things their way both sides need each other, but they're fighting | 一个人把胶水藏起来 直到大家同意做他们双方需要的事 |
| 152 | That is a perfect analogy and we actually saw a complete freeze during a past trade dispute | 这是一个完美的类比 我们实际上看到完全冻结 在过去的贸易纠纷 |
| 153 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 154 | Mm-hmm. | 对 |
| 155 | What happened a few years ago? | 几年前发生了什么? |
| 156 | The US government placed a strict embargo on the leap 1c engine and an embargo is just a total legal ban on selling something, right? | 美国政府对飞跃1c引擎严加封锁 封锁只是法律上对销售的禁令,对吧? |
| 157 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 158 | No one could send those engines to China at all production completely stopped | 没有人能把引擎送到中国 完全停止生产 |
| 159 | But the political rules changed recently though. | 但政治规则最近有所改变。 |
| 160 | They did | 他们做到了 |
| 161 | President Trump reissued the export license for that specific engine. | 川普总统重新颁发了该特定发动机的出口许可证. |
| 162 | So the engines are finally moving across the ocean again | 引擎终于又跨过海洋了 |
| 163 | Yes, and that is exactly why GE could sign that huge billion dollar deal at the expo | 是的,正因为如此,GE才能在博览会上 签下十亿美元的交易 |
| 164 | But other critical internal parts are still trapped. | 但其他关键的内部部件仍被困. |
| 165 | They're stuck in endless paperwork, right? | 他们被困在无尽的文案,对不对? |
| 166 | And this creates a huge vulnerability for China | 这给中国带来了巨大的弱点 |
| 167 | Analyst Li Hanming points out a very tough reality here. | 分析家李汉明在此指出一个非常艰难的现实. |
| 168 | Was that well China designed the c919 to be a completely | 中国设计C919是完全的 |
| 169 | Independent homegrown aircraft. | 独立本土飞机. |
| 170 | They want it to be a powerful symbol of national pride, right? | 他们希望它成为民族自豪的强大象征,对吧? |
| 171 | But they still heavily rely on US suppliers for the most complex internal parts | 但他们仍然严重依赖美国供应商 来购买最复杂的内部部件 |
| 172 | I guess you can design a beautiful airplane | 我想你可以设计一架漂亮的飞机 |
| 173 | You can paint it nicely | 画得漂亮点 |
| 174 | But if you do not control the foreign factory that make the flight computers you have a major problem | 但是如果你不能控制 制造飞行计算机的外国工厂 你有一个大问题 |
| 175 | Exactly if you do not make the heavy parts yourself you do not really control the airplane | 准确的说,如果你不做重件 你自己 你并不真正控制飞机 |
| 176 | Your assembly line is at the mercy of foreign governments and that is an unacceptable business risk for them | 你的装配线受外国政府的支配 这对他们来说是无法接受的商业风险 |
| 177 | If a foreign government can stop your billion dollar factory with a single piece of paper | 如果一个外国政府能用一张纸 阻止你的十亿美元工厂 |
| 178 | You cannot run a reliable airline. | 你不能经营一个可靠的航空公司。 |
| 179 | You really cannot so Comac and the Chinese government are shifting their entire long-term strategy | 你真的不能让Comac和中国政府 改变他们的长远战略 |
| 180 | They're trying to build the entire complex puzzle themselves. | 他们试图自己构建整个复杂的谜题. |
| 181 | Yes | 对 |
| 182 | They want to create a completely domestic supply chain | 他们想建立一个完全的国内供应链 |
| 183 | Which means making every single part inside their own country instead of buying them from across the world | 也就是说,在他们自己的国家里创造每一个部分 而不是从世界各地购买 |
| 184 | Exactly, they want total control | 没错,他们想要完全控制 |
| 185 | They do not want to rely on foreign export licenses ever again, but that is a massive job. | 他们不想再依赖外国出口许可证,但这是一项庞大的工作。 |
| 186 | It will | 会的 |
| 187 | The most obvious example is the engine itself. | 最明显的例子是发动机本身. |
| 188 | They are not just buying spare leap 1c engines from GE anymore, right? | 他们不再只是从GE那里买一款引擎,对吧? |
| 189 | China is actively developing its own commercial aircraft engine from scratch | 中国正在从零开始积极开发自己的商用飞机发动机 |
| 190 | They call this huge project the CJ 1000 a and their goal for this new engine is incredibly ambitious | 他们称这个大型项目为CJ1000 a, 他们的目标是这个新引擎令人难以置信的宏伟。 |
| 191 | They wanted to match the US engine in every possible way, right? | 他们想用一切可能的方式 与美国的引擎匹配 对吧? |
| 192 | It needs the exact same fuel efficiency same power the exact same perfect safety record | 它需要完全相同的燃料效率 同样的动力 完全相同的安全记录 |
| 193 | But copying and building a modern jet engine is incredibly tough | 但复制和建造现代化的喷气发动机非常困难 |
| 194 | It is it is not just about copying the shape of the metal the spinning blades inside operate in heat that would actually melt | 不仅仅是复制金属的形状 内部的旋转叶片在热量下运作 真正融化 |
| 195 | normal metal | 一般金属 |
| 196 | Well, yeah, they use complex internal cooling tricks just to survive the heat | 嗯,是的,他们使用复杂的 内部冷却技巧 只是为了幸存的热量 |
| 197 | You have to master advanced metal science to build them and then you have to run thousands of hours of safety tests, right? | 你必须要掌握先进的金属科学才能制造它们 然后进行几千小时的安全测试,对吧? |
| 198 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 199 | It takes a decade of hard work, but engines are not the only missing parts holding up the planes. | 需要10年的辛勤工作,但发动机并不是支撑飞机的唯一缺失部件. |
| 200 | Think about the heavy landing gear | 考虑一下重型起落架 |
| 201 | Landing gear seems quite simple compared to a jet engine | 与喷气发动机相比,着陆装置看起来很简单 |
| 202 | I mean, it's just heavy metal wheels and thick metal legs, right? | 我的意思是,它只是重金属轮子和厚金属腿,对不对? |
| 203 | It would think so. | 它会这么认为。 |
| 204 | It just rolls on the ground | 它只是滚在地上 |
| 205 | Why is that specific part causing such a huge delay for Comac? | 为什么这个具体部分会给科马克造成如此巨大的延误? |
| 206 | Because it is actually a hidden marvel of modern engineering a fully loaded commercial jet weighs over | 因为它实际上是现代工程的奇迹 满载的商用喷气机重过重 |
| 207 | 100,000 pounds and is massive and when it lands it hits the concrete runway at nearly 200 miles per hour | 10万磅重 降落后 时速接近200英里 |
| 208 | The landing gear has to absorb all that violent energy instantly without breaking | 起落架必须立刻吸收所有猛烈的能量而不破裂 |
| 209 | Right. | 对 |
| 210 | It must do this thousands of times without ever cracking or bending | 它必须做这几千次 永远不破裂或弯曲 |
| 211 | So you cannot just pour some cheap steel into a mold and hope for the best. | 所以你不能只是把一些廉价的钢材 倒进模具里,希望最好。 |
| 212 | Definitely not you need perfect precision | 你绝对不需要完美的精确度 |
| 213 | If the landing gear fails when the plane touches down the plane crashes the safety consequences are catastrophic | 如果飞机坠毁时起落架失灵 安全后果是灾难性的 |
| 214 | Exactly the engineering must be absolutely perfect and china is now moving to build this complex system locally, too | 工程必须绝对完美 瓷器也开始在当地建造这个复杂的系统 |
| 215 | Yes, a massive global company named lee bear is helping them | 是的,一个叫李熊的大型全球公司正在帮助他们 |
| 216 | They just started building a massive new factory in shanghai and the physical scale of this new factory is huge | 他们刚刚开始在上海兴建大型新工厂 这家新工厂的物理规模很大 |
| 217 | We are talking about 16 000 square meters. | 我们谈论的是16,000平方米。 |
| 218 | Whoa. | 珃 |
| 219 | Yeah, that is roughly four full-size american football fields of indoor factory space | 是啊,那是大约四个全尺寸的美国足球场 室内工厂空间 |
| 220 | They will use this space specifically to build strong landing gear for the c919 | 他们将专门利用这个空间为C919飞机建造强大的起落架. |
| 221 | Right a respected aviation journal run by comac recently talked about this exact construction project | 对 昏迷的著名航空杂志最近 谈到这个建筑工程 |
| 222 | What did they say? | 他们说什么? |
| 223 | They said this single local factory will fill a massive gap in their domestic supply chain | 他们说这个单一的本地工厂 将填补国内供应链的巨大缺口 |
| 224 | It provides the heavy manufacturing power. | 它提供重型制造动力. |
| 225 | They desperately need to build more planes | 他们急需建造更多的飞机 |
| 226 | So those heavy metal parts will not have to cross an ocean on a ship anymore. | 因此,这些重金属零件将不必再在船上穿越海洋. |
| 227 | Nope | 没有 |
| 228 | They will not need a foreign export license signed by a politician exactly | 他们不需要政治人物签发的外国出口许可证 |
| 229 | Comac can just drive the finished landing gear right down the street to their main assembly plant | 科马克可以把完成的起落架 开到他们的主要装配厂 |
| 230 | So by slowing down the parts | 所以通过减慢零件 |
| 231 | The trade tensions are actually forcing china to learn how to build everything themselves much faster | 贸易紧张实际上迫使瓷器学习如何自己更快地建造一切 |
| 232 | That is exactly what is happening. | 这正是正在发生的情况。 |
| 233 | Once they can safely build the landing gear and the engines at home | 一旦他们能安全地在家里建造起落架和发动机 |
| 234 | They control the timeline. | 他们控制了时间 |
| 235 | They completely remove the political risk from their business. | 他们完全从他们的生意中排除了政治风险. |
| 236 | They control their own destiny. | 他们控制着自己的命运。 |
| 237 | Yes | 对 |
| 238 | This brings up a fascinating unintended consequence. | 这造成了令人着迷的意外后果。 |
| 239 | We often call this the cobra effect | 我们常称之为眼镜蛇效应 |
| 240 | Right, the united states purposely slow down the parts to gain political leverage | 对,美国故意减速 以获得政治影响力 |
| 241 | But this specific strategy is actually backfiring in the long run | 但从长远来看,这种具体的策略实际上是反射的 |
| 242 | It really is by blocking access to these vital parts. | 真正的方法是阻止进入这些关键部分。 |
| 243 | The u.s is forcing china to innovate faster | 国军迫使中国加速创新 |
| 244 | They are accidentally speeding up the creation of a direct competitor | 他们不小心加速了直接竞争者的创造 |
| 245 | Yeah, china is now spending billions of dollars to ensure they never need american airplane parts again | 是啊,中国现在花费数十亿美元 以确保他们再也不需要美国飞机零件了 |
| 246 | The short-term political win creates a massive long-term business loss | 短期政治胜利造成了巨大的长期商业损失 |
| 247 | The very tool used to slow china down is pushing them to become totally independent exactly | 用来减慢瓷器速度的工具 就是促使它们完全独立 |
| 248 | And you know the global aviation market has always been deeply connected for decades companies happily shared the massive financial risk | 几十年来,全球航空市场一直紧密相连 公司都乐于分担巨大的金融风险 |
| 249 | This year the engineering challenges across borders, too | 今年工程挑战也跨越国界 |
| 250 | They built the absolute best planes by using the absolute best parts from all over the world | 他们利用来自世界各地的 绝对最好的部分 造出了绝对最好的飞机 |
| 251 | But that golden era of deep global teamwork seems to be ending | 但全球团队合作的黄金时代似乎正在结束 |
| 252 | Political tension is breaking those global supply chains apart piece by piece. | 政治紧张局势正在逐块打破这些全球供应链。 |
| 253 | We are moving away from one global aviation network | 我们正远离一个全球航空网络 |
| 254 | We're moving toward two completely separate competing systems, right? | 我们走向两个完全独立的竞争系统,对不对? |
| 255 | The world of aviation is deeply connected but political fights are pushing countries to build their own independent systems | 航空界紧密相连 但政治斗争迫使各国建立自己的独立体系 |
| 256 | So the next time you take a commercial flight | 所以下次你搭乘商业航班 |
| 257 | Take a moment to look out the window | 花点时间看窗外 |
| 258 | Look at the massive wings flexing in the wind | 看那巨大的翅膀在风中飘动 |
| 259 | Listen to the steady roar of the jet engines outside | 听外面喷气发动机的 平稳咆哮声 |
| 260 | Yeah, and think about the intense political battles happening over every single bolt and wire | 对,想想每个螺栓和铁丝网 都发生了激烈的政治斗争 |
| 261 | Building an airplane is no longer just a complex puzzle of engineering. | 造飞机不再只是工程的复杂谜题. |
| 262 | It is a physical symbol of global politics | 它是全球政治的象征 |
| 263 | And it's powerful nations fighting over who gets to control the future of travel | 是强国争夺谁能控制旅行的未来 |
| 264 | It really forces us to look at the entire travel industry differently. | 这真的迫使我们以不同的眼光看待整个旅行行业。 |
| 265 | The basic engineering is changing fast | 基础工程变化很快 |
| 266 | The global supply chains are breaking down | 全球供应链正在崩溃 |
| 267 | I want to leave you with a final thought to chew on this week | 我想留你一个最后的想法 这周咀嚼 |
| 268 | Building a safe reliable commercial airplane is one of the most | 建造安全可靠的商业飞机是 |
| 269 | expensive things humanity does | 人类做的东西很昂贵 |
| 270 | Absolutely, historically we shared that massive financial cost across many different countries | 当然,历史上,我们分担 巨大的财政成本 在许多不同国家 |
| 271 | But what happens if the world permanently splits in half? | 但是如果世界永远分裂成一半会怎样呢? |
| 272 | That is a big question | 这是一个大问题 |
| 273 | What if every large country decides they must build completely separate airplane industries from scratch? | 如果每个大国都决定 从零开始建立完全独立的飞机工业呢? |
| 274 | Think about building duplicate factories for every single tiny part. | 考虑为每一个小部分建造重复的工厂. |
| 275 | The costs would be astronomical, right? | 代价是天文的,对吧? |
| 276 | Eventually someone has to pay for that huge extra cost | 最终总得有人付这个巨大的额外费用 |
| 277 | The airlines will not pay for it. | 航空公司不会付钱的 |
| 278 | They will pass the cost on to you | 他们会把费用交给你 |
| 279 | How much will that political tension ultimately add to the price of your next plane ticket? | 这种政治紧张局势最终会增加你下一张机票的价格多少? |
| 280 | It is a very expensive question and every passenger might be paying for it soon | 这是一个非常昂贵的问题,每个乘客可能都很快会付钱 |
| 281 | Thanks for coming along in this deep dive. | 感谢你们一起下潜 |
| 282 | We hope we give you a new way to look at the skies | 我们希望我们给你一个新的方法 看着天空 |
| 283 | Have a great week | 祝你们一周愉快 |
| 284 | And we will catch you next time | 下次我们会抓住你的 |
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