结婚人数跌近一成，2027年出生率或再降：地方政府为何急着催
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Picture this for a second, you are running late for work. | 想象一下,你上班要迟到了 |
| 0:03 | Okay, yeah. | 好吧,没错。 |
| 0:04 | You swipe, you grab a quick coffee, | 你刷,你拿 一快的咖啡, |
| 0:06 | you swipe your transit card at the subway station, | 在地铁站刷卡 |
| 0:08 | you step onto the platform, and then, | 你踩到平台,然后, |
| 0:11 | well, right there, next to the train schedule, | 火车时刻表旁边 |
| 0:14 | you decide to get married. | 你决定结婚。 |
| 0:16 | I mean, it sounds like a complete joke. | 我的意思是,这听起来像 一个完全的笑话。 |
| 0:18 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 0:19 | But it is actually happening right now. | 但它实际上正在发生。 |
展开字幕全文（572 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Picture this for a second, you are running late for work. | 想象一下,你上班要迟到了 |
| 2 | Okay, yeah. | 好吧,没错。 |
| 3 | You swipe, you grab a quick coffee, | 你刷,你拿 一快的咖啡, |
| 4 | you swipe your transit card at the subway station, | 在地铁站刷卡 |
| 5 | you step onto the platform, and then, | 你踩到平台,然后, |
| 6 | well, right there, next to the train schedule, | 火车时刻表旁边 |
| 7 | you decide to get married. | 你决定结婚。 |
| 8 | I mean, it sounds like a complete joke. | 我的意思是,这听起来像 一个完全的笑话。 |
| 9 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 10 | But it is actually happening right now. | 但它实际上正在发生。 |
| 11 | Yeah, today we are looking at why local governments | 是的,今天我们正在研究 为什么地方政府 |
| 12 | in China are getting that desperate. | 在中国变得如此绝望 |
| 13 | Right, they're pushing young people to get married | 对,他们逼年轻人结婚 |
| 14 | in some very unusual ways. | 在某些非常不寻常的方式。 |
| 15 | So welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深渊 |
| 16 | We are looking at a recent report. | 我们正在研究最近一份报告。 |
| 17 | It comes from the South China Morning Post. | 来源于"南华早报". |
| 18 | Yes, and it was published in November 2026. | 是,并于2026年11月出版. |
| 19 | We are gonna explore what these new numbers actually mean. | 我们要探索这些新数字的真正含义。 |
| 20 | Because the report covers some brand new data. | 因为报告包含了一些全新的数据. |
| 21 | It shows a very sharp drop in marriage rates | 这表明结婚率急剧下降 |
| 22 | across China this year, in 2026. | 今年是2026年,中国全国。 |
| 23 | Right, and we will also look at why the year 2025 | 对,我们也会研究为什么2025年 |
| 24 | gave everyone a false sense of hope. | 给了每个人虚假的希望感. |
| 25 | Yeah, that part is really interesting. | 是啊,这个部分真的很有趣。 |
| 26 | Then we will explain the direct link | 然后我们解释一下直接的联系 |
| 27 | between marriage and the birth rate. | 在婚姻和出生率之间。 |
| 28 | And finally, we will unpack those extreme measures, | 最后,我们将解开这些极端措施, |
| 29 | the really desperate things | 真正绝望的事情 |
| 30 | local governments are testing out. | 地方政府正在测试。 |
| 31 | It is a huge topic. | 这是一个巨大的话题。 |
| 32 | And you know, you might wonder why marriage rates | 你知道,你可能会想知道 为什么结婚率 |
| 33 | in another country matter to you. | 在另一个国家对你很重要。 |
| 34 | Well, China is the world's second largest economy. | 中国是世界第二大经济体。 |
| 35 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 36 | I like to think of a country's marriage data | 我喜欢想到一个国家的婚姻数据 |
| 37 | like a weather forecast. | 就像天气预报一样 |
| 38 | A weather forecast for the economy. | 经济气象预报. |
| 39 | Yeah, if you see dark clouds on the radar, | 如果你在雷达上看到黑云 |
| 40 | well, you prepare for a storm. | 好吧,你准备一场风暴。 |
| 41 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 42 | And right now, we are looking at some very dark clouds | 现在,我们正在寻找一些非常黑暗的云 |
| 43 | gathering over China's economy. | 聚集在中国的经济。 |
| 44 | And you know, that storm will eventually affect | 你知道,暴风雨最终会影响 |
| 45 | global markets, it affects everyone. | 全球市场,它影响到每一个人。 |
| 46 | So let's start with those new numbers. | 所以,让我们从这些新数字开始。 |
| 47 | Okay, so the first nine months of 2026 show a major change. | 好吧,所以2026年的前九个月 显示一个重大的变化。 |
| 48 | How big of a change? | 多大的改变? |
| 49 | Marriage registrations dropped by nearly 10%. | 婚姻登记下降了近10%。 |
| 50 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 51 | Yeah, nearly 10% compared to the exact same time last year. | 是的,与去年同期相比,接近10%。 |
| 52 | 10% in less than a year. | 在不到一年的时间里,10%。 |
| 53 | I mean, that is a massive drop. | 我的意思是,这是一个巨大的下降。 |
| 54 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 55 | What does that actually look like in real numbers? | 这在真实数字上是什么样的? |
| 56 | Well, the country recorded 4.648 million marriages | 全国共有464.8万次婚姻 |
| 57 | in those first nine months. | 在头九个月。 |
| 58 | 4.6 million, okay. | 460万,好吗? |
| 59 | That means 504,000 fewer couples got married. | 也就是说结婚的夫妇减少了504,000人. |
| 60 | Over half a million fewer couples. | 少了50万对夫妇 |
| 61 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 62 | We are talking about over a million individual people | 我们说的是一百多万人 |
| 63 | just, well, just opting out of marriage this year. | 只是,嗯,只是选择退出 今年的婚姻。 |
| 64 | Right, they just decided not to do it. | 是的,他们只是决定不这样做。 |
| 65 | And experts see this trend continuing. | 专家认为这一趋势仍在继续。 |
| 66 | They don't expect it to bounce back. | 他们不期望它会回弹。 |
| 67 | No. | 没有 |
| 68 | They estimate the final number for the whole year of 2026 | 他们估计了整个2026年的最后数字 |
| 69 | will land somewhere between 5.88 million | 会降落在588万左右 |
| 70 | and 6.46 million couples. | 还有646万对夫妇 |
| 71 | Even their highest guess is still very low. | 甚至他们的最高猜测仍然很低。 |
| 72 | Very low. | 甚贱. |
| 73 | But you know, this is confusing to me. | 但你知道,这让我很困惑。 |
| 74 | Why is that? | 为什么? |
| 75 | I remember reading the news last year. | 我记得去年看了新闻 |
| 76 | Didn't marriages just go up? | 婚姻不是刚升迁吗? |
| 77 | They did. | 没错 |
| 78 | You are totally right. | 你说得对 |
| 79 | Okay, I thought so. | 好吧,我想是这样。 |
| 80 | In 2025, marriages saw a really strong increase. | 在2025年,婚姻出现了真正的强劲增长。 |
| 81 | They actually went up by 10.8%. | 他们实际上上升了10.8%。 |
| 82 | That is a big jump. | 这是一个巨大的跳跃。 |
| 83 | Yeah, that was 6.765 million couples tying the knot. | 是的,那是6765万对结结。 |
| 84 | So we had a huge jump up last year | 去年我们跳了个大跳跃 |
| 85 | and now a huge jump down this year. | 而现在今年又大跃进。 |
| 86 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 87 | Was 2025 just like an illusion? | 2025年就像幻觉一样吗? |
| 88 | It really was an illusion. | 这真的是个幻觉。 |
| 89 | The 2025 jump didn't represent a real change in society. | 2025年的跳跃并不代表社会的真正变化. |
| 90 | It didn't. | 它没有。 |
| 91 | No, it was caused by a few specific things | 不,是一些具体的事情造成的 |
| 92 | just lining up perfectly. | 只是排好队 |
| 93 | Okay, like what? | 好吧,比如说? |
| 94 | First, 2025 had many auspicious dates. | 首先,2025年有许多吉日。 |
| 95 | Wait, auspicious, that just means lucky, right? | 等等,吉祥的,那只是意味着幸运,对不对? |
| 96 | Yes, exactly, lucky. | 是的,没错,幸运。 |
| 97 | Many couples wait for a lucky year | 许多夫妇等待一个幸运年 |
| 98 | or a lucky day to get married. | 或幸运的一天结婚。 |
| 99 | Because they think it brings good luck. | 因为他们认为这会带来好运 |
| 100 | Right. | 对 |
| 101 | They believe it brings good fortune to their new family. | 他们相信这给他们的新家庭带来好运 |
| 102 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 103 | So a lot of people who were already planning to get married, | 所以很多人 已经计划结婚, |
| 104 | they just waited for 2025. | 他们只是等待2025年。 |
| 105 | Ah, okay. | 啊,还好。 |
| 106 | So the calendar played a really big part. | 因此,日历 扮演了一个很重要的角色。 |
| 107 | A huge part. | 相当重要 |
| 108 | What else happened? | 还有什么事? |
| 109 | Well, the government also launched a new nationwide service. | 政府也推出了一个新的全国性服务。 |
| 110 | What did the service do? | 服务是做什么的? |
| 111 | It made registering for marriage much easier. | 这使得登记结婚更容易。 |
| 112 | You could suddenly do the paperwork almost anywhere. | 你可能突然做文件 几乎任何地方。 |
| 113 | So they removed the friction. | 于是他们消除了摩擦. |
| 114 | Right, they made it simple. | 是的,他们让事情变得简单。 |
| 115 | And at the same time, | 同时, |
| 116 | local governments rolled out small rewards, | 地方政府推出小额奖励 |
| 117 | little policies to encourage weddings. | 没有什么政策鼓励婚礼。 |
| 118 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 119 | All of these factors combined created a sudden rush. | 所有这些因素加在一起造成了突然的冲动。 |
| 120 | You know, it sounds exactly like a holiday sale | 你知道,这听起来完全像 一个假日销售 |
| 121 | at a big store. | 在一个大商店。 |
| 122 | A holiday sale, what do you mean? | 度假销售,你是什么意思? |
| 123 | Well, think about a massive holiday sale. | 好吧,想想一个大规模的假日销售。 |
| 124 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 125 | The store puts up big signs, | 店里有大标志 |
| 126 | they offer a special discount, | 他们提供特别折扣, |
| 127 | but for one weekend only. | 但只有一个周末。 |
| 128 | Right, so everyone rushes in. | 对,所以大家都冲进来了 |
| 129 | Exactly, everyone rushes in, | 没错,每个人都冲进来 |
| 130 | the store is completely packed, | 店铺已经打包好了 |
| 131 | the sales numbers for that weekend look amazing. | 那个周末的销量看起来很惊人 |
| 132 | And the store owners feel very happy. | 店主们很快乐 |
| 133 | Yes, they do. | 是的,他们这样做。 |
| 134 | But then Monday comes, the sale is over. | 但周一到, 销售结束了。 |
| 135 | And the store is totally empty. | 店里完全空着 |
| 136 | Right, the high sales numbers weren't real growth. | 对,高额的销量并没有真正增长 |
| 137 | No. | 没有 |
| 138 | They didn't actually find any new customers, | 他们没有找到新的顾客 |
| 139 | they just convinced their regular customers | 他们只是说服了他们的常客 |
| 140 | to buy all at once. | 立即买下所有的东西 |
| 141 | That fits the data perfectly. | 这完全符合数据。 |
| 142 | That is exactly what happened. | 事情就是这样 |
| 143 | So 2025 was just a holiday sale. | 所以2025年只是假日销售. |
| 144 | Yes, the year 2025 was a holiday sale for marriages. | 是的,2025年是婚姻的节日销售。 |
| 145 | It pulled forward a lot of demand. | 它推动了很多需求。 |
| 146 | Couples rushed to get the lucky dates. | 情侣们匆匆忙忙忙忙地得到幸运的约会. |
| 147 | And the easy paperwork. | 和简单的文件。 |
| 148 | But now, well, the rush is over. | 但是现在 急事结束了 |
| 149 | The store is empty again. | 店门又空. |
| 150 | The store is empty. | 店内是空的. |
| 151 | The 2026 numbers show the truth. | 2026年数字显示真相. |
| 152 | The long-term downward trend is returning with full force. | 长期下降趋势正在全力回升。 |
| 153 | So marriages are down, | 因此,婚姻是关闭的, |
| 154 | but why is this specific metric treated like such a crisis? | 但为什么这种具体的衡量标准被当做危机? |
| 155 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 156 | Why do they care so much about marriage numbers? | 为什么他们那么在乎婚姻号码? |
| 157 | Ah, because in China, a drop in marriage in 2026 | 因为中国2026年的婚姻下降 |
| 158 | guarantees a drop in births in 2027. | 保证2027年出生人数下降。 |
| 159 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 160 | They are locked together. | 他们被锁在一起。 |
| 161 | Yes, they are locked together. | 是的,他们被锁在一起。 |
| 162 | So it's like a pipeline. | 所以它就像一条管道。 |
| 163 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 164 | Let's explore that pipeline. | 我们来探索一下管道 |
| 165 | Okay, think of marriage as the start of a water pipe. | 好吧,把婚姻当作水管的开始 |
| 166 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 167 | And the births are the end of the water pipe. | 而胎为水管之末. |
| 168 | You need water to enter the pipe first. | 你需要水才能进入管道 |
| 169 | If water stops entering the front, | 如果水停止进入前面, |
| 170 | no water comes out the back. | 后面没有水 |
| 171 | That is a great way to look at it. | 这是一个伟大的方法来看待它。 |
| 172 | The report actually quotes a man named He Yafu on this, | 报告提到一个叫贺亚福的人 |
| 173 | exact point. | 准确的点。 |
| 174 | Who is He Yafu? | 贺亚福是谁? |
| 175 | He is an independent demographer. | 他是一个独立的人口学家。 |
| 176 | He's based in Guangdong province. | 驻广东省. |
| 177 | Wait, let's explain that term for a second. | 等等,我们解释一下这个词 |
| 178 | Demographer, that is a person | 人口学家,那就是一个人 |
| 179 | who studies human populations, right? | 谁研究人口,对不对? |
| 180 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 181 | Okay, cool. | 好吧,冷静。 |
| 182 | A demographer studies how populations change, | 人口统计学研究 |
| 183 | births, deaths, things like that. | 出生,死亡,类似的事情。 |
| 184 | Okay, cool. | 好吧,冷静。 |
| 185 | So he spends his career tracking human population changes. | 所以他花职业生涯 跟踪人类人口变化。 |
| 186 | Yes. | 对 |
| 187 | And what does he say about this pipeline? | 他怎么说这个管道? |
| 188 | He points out a key cultural and legal fact about China. | 他指出了中国的重要文化和法律事实。 |
| 189 | Which is? | 什么情况? |
| 190 | The vast majority of families marry | 绝大多数家庭结婚 |
| 191 | before having children. | 在生孩子之前, |
| 192 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 193 | Births outside of marriage are very, very rare. | 婚外生育非常,非常罕见. |
| 194 | You know, that is a big difference | 你知道,这是一个很大的区别 |
| 195 | from many Western countries. | 来自许多西方国家 |
| 196 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 197 | In a lot of places, | 在许多地方 |
| 198 | people start families without ever getting married. | 人们开始家庭 从来没有结婚。 |
| 199 | Right. | 对 |
| 200 | The two things aren't always connected. | 二者不常相联. |
| 201 | But in China, they are deeply connected. | 但是在中国,它们有着很深的联系. |
| 202 | Very deeply. | 甚深处. |
| 203 | He, Yafu, notes that out of wedlock births, | 他,Yafu,指出 婚外生育, |
| 204 | babies born to unmarried parents | 未婚父母所生婴儿 |
| 205 | account for a very low share of total births. | 占总出生人口的比例很低。 |
| 206 | So you almost never see one without the other. | 所以,你几乎从来没有见过一个 没有另一个。 |
| 207 | Almost never. | 几乎从来没有。 |
| 208 | That means the government | 那意味着政府 |
| 209 | can't just encourage people to have babies. | 不能只是鼓励人们生孩子。 |
| 210 | No, they can't. | 不,他们不能。 |
| 211 | They have to get them married first. | 他们必须先让他们结婚 |
| 212 | Marriage is the only gate into the birth pipeline. | 婚姻是进入分娩管道的唯一大门。 |
| 213 | Yes. | 对 |
| 214 | That is exactly why demographers use marriage numbers | 所以人口学家才用结婚号码 |
| 215 | as their main tool. | 作为他们的主要工具。 |
| 216 | It helps them see the future. | 这有助于他们看到未来。 |
| 217 | Right. | 对 |
| 218 | It is the best way to predict future birth numbers. | 这是预测未来出生数字的最佳方法。 |
| 219 | If you know the marriage rate today, | 如果你知道今天的结婚率 |
| 220 | you know the birth rate tomorrow. | 你知道明天的出生率。 |
| 221 | And if the birth rate falls, | 如果出生率下降, |
| 222 | well, we hit those dark clouds we talked about earlier. | 我们撞到了刚才提到的那些黑云 |
| 223 | Yes. | 对 |
| 224 | The economic weather turns bad. | 经济气候变坏. |
| 225 | It creates a massive demographic challenge. | 它造成了巨大的人口挑战。 |
| 226 | A huge challenge. | 巨大的挑战。 |
| 227 | Let's break down what a demographic challenge | 我们来分解一下人口挑战 |
| 228 | actually looks like for a normal person. | 看起来像是正常人 |
| 229 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 230 | Because it sounds like a textbook phrase, | 因为听起来像一个教科书短语, |
| 231 | demographic challenge, | 人口挑战, |
| 232 | but it means something very real for a country's future. | 但它意味着一个非常真实的东西 一个国家的未来。 |
| 233 | It means the entire shape of society changes. | 这意味着社会的整体形态变化. |
| 234 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 235 | Well, a lower birth rate means | 低出生率意味着 |
| 236 | a shrinking workforce in the future. | 未来劳动力不断减少。 |
| 237 | Because there are fewer kids. | 因为孩子少了 |
| 238 | Right. | 对 |
| 239 | You have fewer young people growing up, | 你长大的年轻人少了 |
| 240 | getting jobs and paying taxes. | 找工作和交税。 |
| 241 | While the older population just keeps growing. | 虽然老年人口继续增长。 |
| 242 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 243 | People are living longer. | 人们活得更久。 |
| 244 | They need medical care. | 他们需要医疗。 |
| 245 | They need pensions. | 他们需要养老金。 |
| 246 | But the group of young workers supporting them, | 但支持他们的年轻工人 |
| 247 | that group is getting smaller every single year. | 那群人每年都越来越少 |
| 248 | Yes. | 对 |
| 249 | The math simply stops working. | 数学只是停止工作。 |
| 250 | The burden on the younger generation | 青年一代的负担 |
| 251 | just gets heavier and heavier. | 越来越重 |
| 252 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 253 | That is a scary economic forecast. | 这是一个可怕的经济预测。 |
| 254 | And the water is barely entering the pipe right now in 2026. | 而水在2026年几乎无法进入管道。 |
| 255 | And it gets even more concerning when you zoom out. | 当你放大时,它会变得更加重要。 |
| 256 | Zoom out how? | 如何缩小? |
| 257 | This 2026 drop is not just a random bad year. | 这2026年的降幅不仅仅是一个随机的坏年. |
| 258 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 259 | No. | 没有 |
| 260 | It is part of a brutal 10 year slide. | 这是残酷的十年幻灯片的一部分。 |
| 261 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 262 | Let's look at the history then. | 让我们看看历史吧。 |
| 263 | How far have these numbers actually fallen? | 这些数字到底下降了多远? |
| 264 | We can start at the peak. | 我们可以从高峰开始 |
| 265 | The highest recent point was back in 2013. | 最近的最高点是2013年。 |
| 266 | OK, 2013 (英语). | |
| 267 | In that year, China recorded 13.469 million marriages. | 当年,中国的婚姻记录为134.69万人次. |
| 268 | Almost 13.5 million couples. | 近1350万对夫妇. |
| 269 | That is a lot of weddings. | 这是很多婚礼。 |
| 270 | It is. | 没错 |
| 271 | But then the slide began. | 但随后幻灯片开始. |
| 272 | And the numbers dropped year after year. | 数字年复一年地下降。 |
| 273 | Yes. | 对 |
| 274 | By 2019, the number fell below 10 million. | 到2019年,这一数字下降到1000万以下. |
| 275 | Man. | 伙计 |
| 276 | That is a huge loss in just six years. | 这在短短六年内就是一个巨大的损失。 |
| 277 | And it didn't stop there. | 它并没有停止在那里。 |
| 278 | Fast forward to 2024. | 快速前进2024. |
| 279 | What happened in 2024? | 2024年发生了什么? |
| 280 | The country hit a record low. | 国家创纪录低。 |
| 281 | They recorded just 6.1 million marriages. | 他们只记录了610万次婚姻。 |
| 282 | Wait. | 单单 |
| 283 | Let's pause on that number for a second. | 我们暂停一下 |
| 284 | OK. | 摆 |
| 285 | Dropping from 13.4 million down to 6.1 million. | 从1340万降到610万 |
| 286 | Right. | 对 |
| 287 | That is more than a 50% drop. | 这是超过50%的下降。 |
| 288 | It is an incredibly steep decline. | 这是一个惊人的急剧下降。 |
| 289 | The numbers got cut in half in roughly a decade. | 数字在大约十年内被削减了一半。 |
| 290 | That isn't just a slight trend. | 这不仅仅是一个小趋势。 |
| 291 | No. | 没有 |
| 292 | That is like a cultural earthquake. | 这就像一场文化地震。 |
| 293 | You are watching an entire generation of young people | 你看着一整代年轻人 |
| 294 | quietly opting out of a huge institution. | 悄悄地选择离开一个庞大的机构. |
| 295 | And remember our pipeline. | 记住我们的管道。 |
| 296 | Right. | 对 |
| 297 | When marriages get cut in half, what happens to the births? | 当婚姻被割成两半, 出生会怎么样? |
| 298 | The births must fall off a cliff too. | 生子也要从悬崖上掉下来 |
| 299 | They did. | 没错 |
| 300 | Because of this 10-year marriage slide, | 因为这个十年的婚姻幻灯片, |
| 301 | last year's birth numbers fell to their own record low. | 去年的出生数字降到了自己的最低记录。 |
| 302 | How bad was the drop in births? | 分娩下降有多严重? |
| 303 | Last year, the total number of births | 去年,出生总数 |
| 304 | was 10 million lower than the peak in 2016. | 比2016年的峰值低1000万. |
| 305 | 10 million fewer babies born in a single year. | 一年出生的婴儿减少1 000万。 |
| 306 | Yes. | 对 |
| 307 | Just like marriages, the number of births | 就像结婚,出生的数量 |
| 308 | has dropped by more than half in under 10 years. | 在不到10年的时间里下降了一半以上。 |
| 309 | The speed of that change is really shocking. | 这种变化的速度确实令人震惊。 |
| 310 | It is very fast. | 这是非常快的。 |
| 311 | It's hard to imagine what that does to a local economy. | 很难想象这对当地经济有什么影响. |
| 312 | Oh, it changes everything. | 哦,它改变了一切。 |
| 313 | I mean, suddenly half the maternity wards aren't needed. | 我的意思是,突然,一半的产房 不需要。 |
| 314 | Right. | 对 |
| 315 | Half the kindergarten classrooms are just empty. | 一半的幼儿园教室都是空的 |
| 316 | Businesses that sell children's clothes or toys, | 卖儿童衣服或玩具的企业, |
| 317 | they just lose half their customers. | 他们只是失去了一半的客户。 |
| 318 | The shock waves hit every single part of the economy. | 冲击波冲击了经济的每一部分。 |
| 319 | You would think, with all this panic about starting families, | 你会想,这么多的恐慌 关于成立家庭, |
| 320 | they would be working just as hard | 他们也会努力工作 |
| 321 | to keep current families together. | 保持当前家庭的团结 |
| 322 | You would think so. | 你会这么想的 |
| 323 | Does the report mention anything about the divorce rate? | 报告有没有提到离婚率? |
| 324 | It actually does. | 其实是这样 |
| 325 | The data shows divorce registrations | 数据显示离婚登记情况 |
| 326 | reached 2.082 million in the first nine months of 2026. | 2026年头9个月达到2082万. |
| 327 | OK, but did divorces go down along with marriages? | 好吧,但是离婚 与婚姻一起下降? |
| 328 | No, they didn't. | 不,他们没有。 |
| 329 | No? | 是吗? |
| 330 | That number is actually a small increase. | 这个数字实际上是小幅增加。 |
| 331 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 332 | Yeah, it is up by 5,000 compared to a year earlier. | 是啊,比一年前增加了5000。 |
| 333 | So fewer people are entering the pipeline, | 进入管道的人越来越少 |
| 334 | and the pipe itself has a leak. | 管子本身就漏水了 |
| 335 | That is a good way to put it. | 说得好 |
| 336 | Divorces are staying steady while marriages drop so fast. | 离婚情况保持稳定,而婚姻却迅速下降。 |
| 337 | The total pool of married couples | 已婚夫妇总数 |
| 338 | continues to shrink from both sides. | 双方不断缩小。 |
| 339 | Well, when a government sees numbers falling this fast, | 当政府看到数字迅速下降时 |
| 340 | they don't just sit and watch. | 他们不只是坐视不管 |
| 341 | No, they take action. | 不,他们采取行动。 |
| 342 | Which brings us to the final part of our deep dive, | 这让我们来到我们深潜的最后部分, |
| 343 | the panic response. | 恐慌的反应。 |
| 344 | Yes. | 对 |
| 345 | Local governments across China are testing some truly wild ideas | 中国各地地方政府在试验一些真正的野性思想 |
| 346 | to reverse the trend. | 扭转趋势。 |
| 347 | They are throwing everything at the wall to see what sticks. | 他们把所有东西都扔在墙上 看什么棍子。 |
| 348 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 349 | Let's start with convenience. | 先说方便. |
| 350 | This goes back to my subway example | 这又回到地铁的例子 |
| 351 | from the very beginning. | 从一开始 |
| 352 | The report outlines how cities are moving marriage registration | 报告概述了城市如何移动婚姻登记。 |
| 353 | desks out of boring government buildings. | 从无聊的政府大楼里拿出来的桌子 |
| 354 | And where are they putting them? | 他们放在哪里? |
| 355 | They are putting them in places you would never expect. | 他们把它们放在你无法想象的地方 |
| 356 | Like where? | 比如说哪里? |
| 357 | They are putting them in hospitals. | 他们把他们送进了医院。 |
| 358 | They are putting them in banks. | 他们把它们放在银行里。 |
| 359 | And yes, they are putting them in subway stations. | 是的,他们把它们放在地铁站。 |
| 360 | It's true. | 这是真的。 |
| 361 | It's just so funny to picture. | 这太有趣了 |
| 362 | You are on your morning commute. | 你早上要通勤了 你明天早上要通勤 |
| 363 | You have your briefcase. | 你有你的公文包。 |
| 364 | You grab your train ticket. | 你拿你的火车票。 |
| 365 | And then you just casually sign a marriage license | 然后随便签个结婚证 |
| 366 | next to the ticket machine. | 在售票机旁边 |
| 367 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 368 | It sounds absurd to us. | 听起来很荒谬 |
| 369 | But look at the government's logic. | 但看政府逻辑. |
| 370 | What is the logic? | 逻辑是什么? |
| 371 | They are trying to remove every single piece of friction. | 他们试图去除每一个摩擦。 |
| 372 | They want the process to be as easy as buying a coffee. | 他们希望这个过程和买咖啡一样容易. |
| 373 | But they are treating a massive social shift | 但他们正在处理一个巨大的社会转变 |
| 374 | like it's just a paperwork problem. | 就像它只是一个文件问题。 |
| 375 | Yeah, they really are. | 是的,他们真的。 |
| 376 | They act like people aren't marrying because the line | 他们表现得好像人们没有结婚一样 |
| 377 | of the office is too long. | 办公室太长了 |
| 378 | That is one part of their strategy. | 这是他们战略的一部分。 |
| 379 | But they also see another barrier. | 但他们也看到了另一个障碍。 |
| 380 | Which is? | 什么情况? |
| 381 | Time. | 时间 |
| 382 | Young workers in China face intense pressure. | 中国的青年工人面临着巨大的压力. |
| 383 | Oh, the work culture. | 哦,工作文化。 |
| 384 | Yes, they work very long hours. | 是的,他们工作时间很长。 |
| 385 | Planning a wedding and starting a life together | 计划婚礼 一起开始生活 |
| 386 | takes a lot of time. | 需要很多时间 |
| 387 | So how are local governments trying | 地方政府如何尝试 |
| 388 | to fix the time problem? | 解决时间问题? |
| 389 | They are using marriage leave. | 他们正在使用婚姻假。 |
| 390 | Marriage leave. | 结婚假。 |
| 391 | That is extra paid time off work, right? | 这是额外的带薪休假,对不对? |
| 392 | Yes. | 对 |
| 393 | You get this paid vacation specifically | 你得到这个带薪假期 特别 |
| 394 | for getting married. | 为了结婚 |
| 395 | I mean, a lot of countries give a few days off for a wedding. | 我的意思是,许多国家给 几天休假的婚礼。 |
| 396 | True. | 没错 |
| 397 | But some provinces in China are taking it to the extreme. | 但中国的一些省份正在将其推向极端. |
| 398 | How extreme? | 有多极端? |
| 399 | Most provinces increased their marriage leave recently. | 大部分省份最近增加了她们的婚假。 |
| 400 | But the provinces of Shanxi and Gansu, | 但是山西省和甘肃省, |
| 401 | they now offer a full 30 days off. | 他们现在提供满30天的假期 |
| 402 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 403 | A 30 day paid vacation just for getting married. | 结婚30天的带薪假期 |
| 404 | 30 days. | 30天时间 |
| 405 | They want to ensure you have time to plan a ceremony, travel, | 他们想确保你有时间 计划一个仪式,旅行, |
| 406 | and have a long honeymoon. | 蜜月很长 |
| 407 | That sounds amazing on paper. | 这听起来棒极了。 |
| 408 | It does sound nice. | 听起来不错 |
| 409 | But let's think about how that actually works | 但是,让我们想想这到底如何运作 |
| 410 | in the real world. | 在现实世界。 |
| 411 | OK. | 摆 |
| 412 | You mentioned the intense work culture. | 你提到激烈的工作文化。 |
| 413 | Imagine walking into your boss's office | 想象一下走进你老板的办公室 |
| 414 | and saying you are taking the next month off. | 说你下个月要请假 |
| 415 | Right. | 对 |
| 416 | In a highly competitive job market, | 在竞争激烈的就业市场上, |
| 417 | taking a month off is very risky. | 休一个月假很危险 |
| 418 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 419 | Even if the government says you can take the leave, | 即使政府说你可以休假 |
| 420 | your boss might secretly punish you for it later. | 你老板可能晚点会秘密惩罚你 |
| 421 | That is a real fear. | 这是一种真正的恐惧。 |
| 422 | You might lose out on a promotion. | 你可能会因为升职而输 |
| 423 | So a lot of young people probably | 所以很多年轻人可能 |
| 424 | won't even use those 30 days. | 这30天都用不着 |
| 425 | It highlights a big gap between government policy and workplace | 它突出了政府政策和工作场所之间的巨大差距。 |
| 426 | reality. | 现实 |
| 427 | OK, so they give you subway desks for the paperwork. | 好吧,所以他们给你 地铁办公桌的文档。 |
| 428 | They give you 30 days off for the time. | 他们给你30天的假期 |
| 429 | What about the biggest barrier of all? | 最大的障碍是什么? |
| 430 | The cost. | 代价 |
| 431 | Yes, the cost. | 是的,费用。 |
| 432 | Weddings are incredibly expensive. | 婚礼太贵了 |
| 433 | Setting up a new apartment is expensive. | 盖新公寓很贵 |
| 434 | They are trying to solve that barrier with straight cash. | 他们试图用直线现金解决障碍。 |
| 435 | Wait, they are literally paying people to marry. | 等等,他们实际上在付钱让人们结婚 |
| 436 | Yes, they are. | 是的,他们是。 |
| 437 | Some local governments are offering direct cash rewards | 一些地方政府提供直接的现金奖励 |
| 438 | to newlyweds. | 给新婚夫妇 |
| 439 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 440 | The report gives a few examples. | 报告列举了几个例子。 |
| 441 | Take Mingxi County in Fujian province. | 治所在今福建省明溪县. |
| 442 | OK, what is the deal in Mingxi County? | 好,明西县有什么交易? |
| 443 | They offer a one-time reward of 3,000 yuan. | 他们提供3000元人民币的一次性奖励. |
| 444 | How much is that? | 多少钱? |
| 445 | That equals about $450 US dollars. | 这相当于450美元左右。 |
| 446 | OK. | 摆 |
| 447 | They give this to local residents | 他们把这个送给当地居民 |
| 448 | who are getting married for the first time. | 他们第一次结婚。 |
| 449 | Well, $450 is a nice little bonus. | 450美元是个不错的奖金 |
| 450 | You might pay for the wedding flowers, | 你可以付婚礼花的钱 |
| 451 | but it's not life-changing money. | 但它不是改变生命的钱。 |
| 452 | It下端. | |
| 453 | But other places are much more aggressive. | 但其他地方的进攻性要强得多. |
| 454 | Oh. | 瓳 |
| 455 | The most generous reward in the report | 报告中最慷慨的奖励 |
| 456 | comes from a village in Guangzhou. | 来源于广州的一个村庄. |
| 457 | How much are they offering to get people down the aisle? | 他们要出多少钱 让人们走下过道? |
| 458 | They are offering up to 40,000 yuan. | 他们出4万元人民币 |
| 459 | Whoa. | 珃 |
| 460 | OK, let's do the math on that. | 好吧,让我们做数学。 |
| 461 | 40,000 yuan, that is roughly like what? | 4万元,这大概是什么? |
| 462 | Like $5,500 US dollars? | 5500美元吗? |
| 463 | Yes. | 对 |
| 464 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 465 | It is a very serious amount of money. | 这是一个非常严重的金额。 |
| 466 | That is a huge pile of cash to hand to a young couple. | 这是一大堆现金 交给一对年轻的夫妇。 |
| 467 | It is. | 没错 |
| 468 | But I have to assume that there's a catch. | 但我得假设有收获 |
| 469 | The government doesn't just hand out $5,500 | 政府不只发五千五百元 |
| 470 | without some rules. | 没有规则。 |
| 471 | You are right. | 你说得对。 |
| 472 | There is a very specific rule attached to that money. | 这笔钱有一个非常具体的规定。 |
| 473 | Let's hear it. | 颂曰. |
| 474 | The couple must get married. | 夫妇必须结婚。 |
| 475 | And they must stay together for at least one full year. | 他们必须在一起至少一年。 |
| 476 | Ah, there it is. | 啊,在这里。 |
| 477 | The one-year trap. | 一年的陷阱。 一年的陷阱。 |
| 478 | You only keep the full reward if you prove the marriage lasted. | 只有证明婚姻持续了 你才能保住全部报酬 |
| 479 | Makes sense. | 说得通 |
| 480 | They don't want people faking a wedding just to steal the cash | 他们不想别人假装婚礼只是为了偷钱 |
| 481 | and divorce the next day. | 第二天就离婚了 离婚了 |
| 482 | So they are basically locking you in. | 所以他们基本上把你锁在里面。 |
| 483 | Pretty much. | 相当多。 |
| 484 | I really have to challenge the logic behind all of this, | 我真的要挑战这一切背后的逻辑 |
| 485 | though. | 虽然. |
| 486 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 487 | We are looking at a government using very blunt instruments. | 我们正在寻找一个使用非常钝器的政府。 |
| 488 | Blunt instruments like cash and vacation time. | 现金和休假时间等模糊的票据. |
| 489 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 490 | Can a 30-day vacation really convince someone | 30天的假期真的能让人相信吗? |
| 491 | to make a lifelong commitment? | 做出终身承诺? |
| 492 | Probably not. | 也许不是。 |
| 493 | Can a cash prize of $5,500 make you choose a life partner? | 5500美元的现金奖金 能让你选择人生伴侣吗? |
| 494 | Marriage is the biggest emotional and financial choice | 婚姻是最大的情感和经济选择 |
| 495 | a person makes. | 一个人做。 |
| 496 | It changes your entire future. | 它改变你整个未来 |
| 497 | The policies do feel totally disconnected | 政策确实感到完全脱节 |
| 498 | from the emotional weight of marriage. | 从婚姻的情感重量。 |
| 499 | They are looking at this generation of young people | 他们看着这代年轻人 |
| 500 | and saying, oh, they just have no time, no money, | 说,哦,他们只是没有时间,没有钱, |
| 501 | and they hate paperwork. | 他们讨厌文书工作 |
| 502 | Right. | 对 |
| 503 | So they throw cash, leave, and subway desks at the problem. | 于是他们把现金,离开, 和地铁桌子扔到问题。 |
| 504 | But they ignore the deeper issues. | 但他们忽略了更深层的问题。 |
| 505 | Like the high cost of living, the pressure of raising kids, | 就像高生活成本 抚养孩子的压力 |
| 506 | and changing personal values. | 以及改变个人价值 |
| 507 | Right. | 对 |
| 508 | They treat it like a simple administrative bottleneck. | 他们把它当成一个简单的行政瓶颈。 |
| 509 | Like a slow line at a store. | 就像商店的慢线 |
| 510 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 511 | If we just shorten the line at the counter, | 如果我们只是缩短 在柜台的线, |
| 512 | more people will buy the product. | 更多的人会购买产品。 |
| 513 | But young people simply don't want to buy the product anymore. | 但年轻人根本不想再买这个产品了. |
| 514 | We will have to wait and see if these practical solutions can | 我们必须等待,看看这些实际的解决办法是否能够 |
| 515 | actually reverse a deep cultural shift. | 实际扭转了深刻的文化转变。 |
| 516 | True. | 没错 |
| 517 | But the 2026 data strongly suggests | 但2026年的数据强烈表明 |
| 518 | they aren't working yet. | 他们还没有工作。 |
| 519 | Let's summarize the big takeaways | 让我们总结一下大外卖 |
| 520 | from our deep dive today. | 从今天的深度潜水。 |
| 521 | OK. | 摆 |
| 522 | The new data is clear, and it is alarming. | 新数据是明确的,令人震惊。 |
| 523 | Only 4.6 million marriages were registered | 只有460万次婚姻登记 |
| 524 | in the first nine months of 2026. | 在2026年的前九个月。 |
| 525 | Right. | 对 |
| 526 | This brings the numbers crashing back down | 倒数倒数 |
| 527 | after the temporary illusion of 2025. | 在2025年的暂时幻想之后. |
| 528 | We also explored the pipeline. | 我们还探索了管道。 |
| 529 | The marriage pipeline. | 婚礼的管道。 |
| 530 | Yes. | 对 |
| 531 | A drop in marriages directly links to a falling birth rate | 婚姻减少与出生率下降直接相关 |
| 532 | next year. | 明年开始 |
| 533 | Out of wedlock, births are rare. | 非婚生子女少见。 |
| 534 | So marriage is the only path to growing the population. | 因此,婚姻是增加人口的唯一途径. |
| 535 | And we looked at the massive 10-year trend. | 我们审视了十年的大规模趋势。 |
| 536 | Marriages have dropped from over 13 million down | 结婚人数从一千三百万人下降 |
| 537 | to 6 million in a decade. | 10年到600万 |
| 538 | A huge drop. | 一个巨大的滴水。 |
| 539 | Births have also been cut in half. | 分娩也被减半。 |
| 540 | The speed of this societal shift is truly shocking. | 这种社会转变的速度确实令人震惊。 |
| 541 | And finally, we saw how desperately local governments | 最后,我们看到地方政府多么绝望 |
| 542 | are reacting. | 正在反应中。 |
| 543 | Yes. | 对 |
| 544 | They are offering 30 days of paid leave, huge cash rewards, | 他们提供30天的带薪假, 巨大的现金奖励, |
| 545 | and putting registration desks in subway stations. | 并在地铁站设置登记台. |
| 546 | They are trying to buy their way out of a demographic crisis, | 他们正试图从人口危机中 买下出路, |
| 547 | which brings us back to our weather forecast. | 这让我们回到我们的天气预报。 |
| 548 | The storm clouds are here. | 暴风云来此. |
| 549 | Yes. | 对 |
| 550 | A shrinking workforce and an aging population | 劳动力减少和人口老化 |
| 551 | will create intense economic pressure for China | 将会给中国带来巨大的经济压力 |
| 552 | in the coming years. | 未来几年 |
| 553 | It is a forecast the whole world needs to watch. | 这是全世界需要看到的预测。 |
| 554 | I want to leave you with a final thought | 我想留给你一个最后的想法 |
| 555 | to explore on your own. | 独自探索 |
| 556 | What is that? | 这是什么? |
| 557 | When a society treats marriage like a job, | 当一个社会把婚姻当成工作 |
| 558 | a job that requires cash bonuses, signing incentives, | 工作需要现金奖金 签署奖励, |
| 559 | and paid leave to attract applicants, | 为吸引申请人, |
| 560 | does it actually solve the root cause? | 它真的解决了根源吗? |
| 561 | Or does it merely treat the symptom? | 还是只是治疗症状? |
| 562 | Right. | 对 |
| 563 | Can money ever truly buy a higher birth rate? | 钱真的能买到更高的出生率吗? |
| 564 | Or is starting a family something much deeper? | 还是开始一个更深层次的家庭? |
| 565 | It is a big question. | 这是一个大问题。 |
| 566 | Maybe it's something that a desk in a subway station | 也许是地铁站的桌子 |
| 567 | simply cannot fix. | 根本无法修复。 |
| 568 | Keep that in mind the next time you hear about global demographic | 你下次听到全球人口统计时记住这一点 |
| 569 | trends. | 趋势。 |
| 570 | Thank you for joining us today. | 谢谢你今天能来 |
| 571 | Thank you for listening to this deep dive. | 谢谢你听了这次深度潜水 |
| 572 | See you next time. | 下次见 |
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