日本烟草在俄资产遭莫斯科接管：守规矩纳税的企业为何被没收｜附
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Um, usually, if a foreign company follows all your rules, you want them to stay. | 嗯,通常,如果一个外国公司遵守你的所有规则, 你希望他们留下来。 |
| 0:05 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:06 | Especially if they pay massive taxes. | 特别是如果他们交了大笔税 |
| 0:07 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:08 | But today, well, we are looking at something very different. | 但是,今天,我们所看到的是完全不同的。 |
| 0:12 | Welcome to the Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 0:14 | Glad to be here. | 很高兴能来 |
| 0:15 | Yeah, so today we are unpacking a fascinating article. | 是啊,所以今天我们正在整理一篇令人着迷的文章。 |
| 0:17 | It is from the South China Morning Post | 这是南华早报的 |
| 0:20 | from November 2026. | 从2026年11月。 |
展开字幕全文（516 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Um, usually, if a foreign company follows all your rules, you want them to stay. | 嗯,通常,如果一个外国公司遵守你的所有规则, 你希望他们留下来。 |
| 2 | Right. | 对 |
| 3 | Especially if they pay massive taxes. | 特别是如果他们交了大笔税 |
| 4 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 5 | But today, well, we are looking at something very different. | 但是,今天,我们所看到的是完全不同的。 |
| 6 | Welcome to the Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 7 | Glad to be here. | 很高兴能来 |
| 8 | Yeah, so today we are unpacking a fascinating article. | 是啊,所以今天我们正在整理一篇令人着迷的文章。 |
| 9 | It is from the South China Morning Post | 这是南华早报的 |
| 10 | from November 2026. | 从2026年11月。 |
| 11 | It is a really interesting one. | 这是一个非常有趣的。 |
| 12 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 13 | We are looking at a sudden, aggressive move by Moscow. | 我们正看着莫斯科突然发动攻击。 |
| 14 | They just took | 他们刚刚拿走了 |
| 15 | control of a major Japanese company. | 控制着一家日本大公司 |
| 16 | And we want to figure out what this means for you | 我们想知道这对你意味着什么 |
| 17 | and for the global economy. | 和全球经济。 |
| 18 | Yeah, because at first, this just looks like a normal business fight. | 是啊,因为一开始,这只是一个正常的生意争吵。 |
| 19 | Right. | 对 |
| 20 | But when you look closer, I mean, it shows a very dangerous game of global politics. | 但是当你仔细看,我的意思是, 它展示了一个非常危险的游戏 全球政治。 |
| 21 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 22 | So let us start with the company itself. | 让我们从公司本身开始。 |
| 23 | The company at the center of this is | 公司的核心是 |
| 24 | 名为JTI。 | |
| 25 | That stands for Japan Tobacco International. | 这代表日本烟草国际。 |
| 26 | Right. | 对 |
| 27 | They are a massive global brand. | 他们是一个巨大的全球品牌。 |
| 28 | And until very recently, they had huge assets in Russia. | 直到最近,他们在俄罗斯拥有巨大的资产。 |
| 29 | We should quickly explain that word assets. | 我们应当迅速解释资产这个词。 |
| 30 | Oh, good idea. | 哦,不错的主意。 |
| 31 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 32 | Assets are basically valuable things a company owns. | 资产基本上是公司拥有的有价值的东西。 |
| 33 | So for JTI, they owned multiple | 对JTI来说,他们拥有多个 |
| 34 | factories, they had heavy equipment, and they had large amounts of cash in Russia. | 工厂,他们有重型设备, 在俄罗斯,他们有大量的现金。 |
| 35 | So they were deeply invested there. | 因此,他们在那里投入了大量资金。 |
| 36 | Oh, very deeply. | 哦,非常深奥。 |
| 37 | But then Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree. | 但时任俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京签署法令. |
| 38 | A decree. | 谕之. |
| 39 | Yeah, that's just a direct official order from a leader, right? | 是啊,这只是一个领导人的直接官方命令,对不对? |
| 40 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 41 | Just a piece of paper. | 只是一张纸 |
| 42 | But with that one order, everything changed for JTI. | 但是,有了这个命令,一切都改变了JTI。 |
| 43 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 44 | So what did the order actually do? | 命令实际上做了什么? |
| 45 | Well, the order put four of JTI's manufacturing centers under temporary administration. | 订单将JTI的四个制造中心 置于临时管理之下 |
| 46 | Okay, wait, temporary administration. | 好吧 等等 临时行政 |
| 47 | What does that mean in plain English? | 普通英语是什么意思? |
| 48 | In plain English, it means the government just steps in. | 用普通英语来说,意思是政府只是步入。 |
| 49 | They take full control of the daily work. | 他们完全掌握日常工作。 |
| 50 | So the company owners just lose all of their power? | 所以公司所有者就失去了全部权力? |
| 51 | Instantly. | 即时. |
| 52 | Yes. | 对 |
| 53 | The Russian state is now running those factories. | 俄罗斯国家现在管理着这些工厂。 |
| 54 | That is wild. | 这是疯狂的。 |
| 55 | It is. | 没错 |
| 56 | Business analysts everywhere were completely shocked by this. | 世界各地的商业分析家对此感到震惊。 |
| 57 | I mean, | 我是说... |
| 58 | it breaks all the normal rules of foreign business. | 它打破了所有正常的外国商业规则。 |
| 59 | And you know, this is not just bad news for a private company. | 这对私人公司来说不仅仅是个坏消息 |
| 60 | No, it is not. | 不,不是这样的。 |
| 61 | It is a massive problem for the Japanese government because | 这是日本政府的一大问题,因为 |
| 62 | Japan actually owns more than one-third of JTI's stock. | 日本实际拥有JTI三分之一以上的股票. |
| 63 | Right. | 对 |
| 64 | So that changes the entire story. | 因此,这改变了整个故事。 |
| 65 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 66 | Well, this is not just a government punishing a random private business. | 这不仅仅是一个政府 惩罚一个随机的私人企业。 |
| 67 | This is a direct hit to Tokyo. | 这是直接击中东京。 |
| 68 | Japan is watching its own national property being taken away. | 日本正在看着自己的国家财产被夺走。 |
| 69 | Ah, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 70 | So Japan must have been furious. | 所以日本一定很愤怒 |
| 71 | Oh, they were. | 哦,他们是。 |
| 72 | Japan did not stay quiet. | 日本没有保持沉默。 |
| 73 | On a Friday, they filed a formal diplomatic complaint. | 星期五,他们提出了正式的外交申诉。 |
| 74 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 75 | They demanded that Moscow reverse the order immediately. | 他们要求莫斯科立即撤销这一命令。 |
| 76 | I mean, they basically said, give us our factories back. | 我的意思是,他们基本上说, 还给我们的工厂。 |
| 77 | Right. | 对 |
| 78 | But here is the central puzzle of this whole story. | 但这是整个故事的中心谜题。 |
| 79 | And this is the part that is so confusing. | 这是令人困惑的部分。 |
| 80 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 81 | JTI did absolutely everything possible to keep the Russian government happy. | JTI尽一切可能让俄罗斯政府快乐. |
| 82 | They really did. | 他们真的做到了。 |
| 83 | They tried incredibly hard to be the perfect foreign guest. | 他们试图成为完美的外国客人 |
| 84 | Right. | 对 |
| 85 | I mean, think back to what happened after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. | 想想2022年乌克兰入侵后发生了什么 |
| 86 | Hundreds of foreign companies left Russia. | 数百家外国公司离开俄罗斯. |
| 87 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 88 | They packed up their offices. | 他们收拾了办公室 |
| 89 | They took a huge financial loss and they went home. | 他们承受了巨大的经济损失,然后回家. |
| 90 | But JTI made a very different choice. | 但JTI做出了一个非常不同的选择. |
| 91 | They chose to stay in the Russian market. | 他们选择留在俄罗斯市场。 |
| 92 | They stayed. | 他们留下来了 |
| 93 | And they followed every single local law. | 他们遵守每个地方的法律。 |
| 94 | They never broke the rules. | 他们从未违反规则。 |
| 95 | Right. | 对 |
| 96 | JTI even released a public statement about this. | JTI甚至就此公开发表声明. |
| 97 | What did they say? | 他们说什么? |
| 98 | They said they always followed all rules and sanctions. | 他们说他们总是遵守所有规则和制裁。 |
| 99 | Let us explain sanctions quickly for the listener. | 让我们迅速向听众解释制裁。 |
| 100 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 101 | Sanctions are basically international rules. | 制裁基本上是国际规则。 |
| 102 | They're designed to limit trade and punish a specific country. | 它们旨在限制贸易,惩罚特定国家. |
| 103 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 104 | Got it. | 明白吗? |
| 105 | So JTI made sure they followed every single sanction perfectly. | 所以JTI确保了他们完全遵守每一个制裁。 |
| 106 | And on top of that, they paid massive taxes directly to the Russian state. | 除此之外,他们还直接向俄罗斯国家缴纳大量税收. |
| 107 | Huge amounts of money. | 大笔钱 |
| 108 | Yes. | 对 |
| 109 | Brought a lot of money into the Russian economy. | 给俄罗斯经济带来了大量资金. |
| 110 | And actually, because they stayed and paid those taxes, Ukraine was very angry. | 实际上,由于他们留下来缴税,乌克兰非常愤怒。 |
| 111 | Oh, definitely. | 当然 |
| 112 | Ukraine actually put JTI on an official blacklist. | 乌克兰实际上将JTI列入官方黑名单. |
| 113 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 114 | So JTI took a massive hit to their global reputation. | 因此,JTI对他们在全球的声誉造成了巨大的打击。 |
| 115 | They did. | 没错 |
| 116 | They accepted all that damage, you know, just to protect their business in Russia. | 他们接受所有的损失,你知道,只是为了保护他们在俄罗斯的生意。 |
| 117 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 118 | But wait. | 但等一会 |
| 119 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 120 | This makes zero sense. | 这没有道理。 |
| 121 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 122 | I am really trying to find the logic here. | 我真的想在这里找到逻辑。 |
| 123 | JTI brought them tax money. | JTI给他们带来了税金. |
| 124 | They stayed loyal when everyone else left. | 当其他人离开时,他们保持忠诚。 |
| 125 | Why bite the hand that feeds you? | 为什么咬你的手? |
| 126 | It's a great question. | 问曰. |
| 127 | I mean, is it like feeding a wild bear so it will not bite you but the bear just bites you anyway? | 我的意思是,它是像喂野熊 这样它不会咬你, 但熊只是咬你反正? |
| 128 | That bear analogy is perfect. | 熊类比是完美的。 |
| 129 | Truly perfect. | 实在是完美。 |
| 130 | And the reason the bear bit them is what makes this so interesting. | 熊咬他们的原因 就是它让这很有趣 |
| 131 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 132 | Explain it to me. | 解释给我听 |
| 133 | Well, we have to look past the money. | 好吧,我们必须看 过钱。 |
| 134 | This action is not about business at all. | 这一行动根本不涉及商业。 |
| 135 | It is not. | 事实并非如此。 |
| 136 | No. | 没有 |
| 137 | It's about using a large company as a political weapon. | 是以大公司为政治武器. |
| 138 | Wait, really? | 等等,真的吗? |
| 139 | So they are not punishing the company because of anything the company did? | 所以他们不是因为公司做了什么就惩罚公司? |
| 140 | Not at all. | 一点也不 |
| 141 | They are using the company like a hostage just to hurt the Japanese government. | 他们把公司当作人质 来伤害日本政府 |
| 142 | That is exactly the hidden logic here. | 这就是这里隐藏的逻辑。 |
| 143 | Yes. | 对 |
| 144 | Moscow is looking straight at Tokyo, not at the factory managers. | 莫斯科正直视东京,而不是工厂经理. |
| 145 | How? | 怎么会? |
| 146 | So to really understand this, we need to look at the recent political fights between Russia and Japan. | 因此,为了真正理解这一点,我们需要审视一下俄罗斯和日本最近的政治斗争. |
| 147 | The backstory. | 背经. |
| 148 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 149 | The article gives a very clear backstory of this bad blood. | 文章给出了这种恶血的非常明确的背面故事. |
| 150 | Right. | 对 |
| 151 | It says relations between Tokyo and Moscow have gotten much worse since the spring. | 上面说东京和莫斯科的关系自春天以来就变得更糟了. |
| 152 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 153 | They are in a serious downward spiral. | 他们正处在严重的螺旋式下降中。 |
| 154 | Why is that? | 为什么? |
| 155 | Well, the article quotes Professor James Brown. | 文章引用了詹姆斯·布朗教授的话 |
| 156 | He's an expert in international relations. | 他是国际关系专家. |
| 157 | He works at Temple University in Tokyo. | 他在东京的庙大学工作. |
| 158 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 159 | What does he say? | 他说什么? |
| 160 | He points out a major shift in Japan's recent behavior. | 他指出了日本近代行为的重大转变. |
| 161 | Japan significantly increased its support for Ukraine. | 日本大幅增加了对乌克兰的支持。 |
| 162 | Ah, yes. | 对 |
| 163 | I remember that. | 我记得 |
| 164 | Tokyo announced they were sending specific items to help Kiev. | 东京宣布要送特定物品去帮助基辅. |
| 165 | Items from a priority list. | 优先清单中的项目。 |
| 166 | Right. | 对 |
| 167 | So they are actively helping the war effort against Russia. | 因此,他们正在积极帮助对俄罗斯的战争努力。 |
| 168 | And didn't Japan take it even a step further? | 日本没有再进一步吗? |
| 169 | They did. | 没错 |
| 170 | They sent defense staff to Europe. | 他们向欧洲派遣了防御人员. |
| 171 | Wait, to NATO? | 等等,去北约? |
| 172 | Yes. | 对 |
| 173 | They placed members of their military staff right at NATO headquarters. | 他们把军事人员安置在北约总部。 |
| 174 | Sending military staff to NATO is a very bold move for Japan. | 向北约派遣军事人员对日本来说是非常大胆的举动. |
| 175 | It is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 176 | They are clearly aligning themselves with Western powers. | 他们显然与西方列强结盟。 |
| 177 | And Russia obviously saw this as a major threat. | 而俄罗斯显然认为这是一大威胁。 |
| 178 | Definitely. | 当然 |
| 179 | It started a clear tit-for-tat escalation. | 它开始一个明显的乳房对塔克升级。 |
| 180 | Tit-for-tat. | 腾讯网. |
| 181 | Like, Japan does something, so Russia punches back. | 比如,日本做一些事情, 所以俄罗斯打回。 |
| 182 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 183 | Japan helps Ukraine, so Russia pushes back hard. | 日本帮助乌克兰,因此俄罗斯极力推退. |
| 184 | They responded with a series of very aggressive political moves. | 他们以一系列极具侵略性的政治举动作为回应. |
| 185 | Right. | 对 |
| 186 | The article lists a few of these. | 该条列举了其中的几个。 |
| 187 | First, President Putin visited a group of disputed islands. | 首先,普京总统访问了一批有争议的岛屿。 |
| 188 | Yes. | 对 |
| 189 | Let's give a quick history lesson on those islands for you listening. | 让我们在那些岛上上个历史教训吧 让你听听 |
| 190 | Good idea. | 不错 |
| 191 | They are located just north of Hokkaido. | 它们位于北海道以北 |
| 192 | That is, in northern Japan. | 也就是说,在日本北部。 |
| 193 | And Soviet forces took these islands at the end of World War II, right, in 1945? | 苏联军队在二战结束时 于1945年占领了这些岛屿 对吧? |
| 194 | That is right. | 没错 |
| 195 | But Japan never gave up its claim to that land. | 但日本从未放弃对这片土地的主张. |
| 196 | Tokyo still says those islands belong to them. | 东京仍然说那些岛屿属于他们 |
| 197 | Yes. | 对 |
| 198 | So when the Russian president visits them, it is a very loud, aggressive message. | 所以,当俄罗斯总统访问他们时,这是一个非常响亮,充满侵略性的信息. |
| 199 | He is standing on land Japan claims, just showing total control. | 他站在日本的陆地上,只是表现出完全的控制权。 |
| 200 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 201 | But Russia went even further than just a visit. | 但俄罗斯走得更远,不只是一次访问。 |
| 202 | What else did they do? | 他们还做了什么? |
| 203 | They openly invited Chinese business owners to those same islands. | 他们公开邀请中国企业主来到这些岛屿。 |
| 204 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 205 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 206 | They asked China to invest money and help build the local economy there. | 他们要求中国投入资金,帮助建设当地经济. |
| 207 | That is another big insult to Japan. | 这是对日本的又一大侮辱。 |
| 208 | It is very calculated. | 这是非常计算出来的。 |
| 209 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 210 | It proves to Japan that Russia controls the territory. | 它向日本证明俄罗斯控制了领土. |
| 211 | Russia is basically saying, | 俄罗斯基本上说, |
| 212 | we can invite your rivals to build on your land and you cannot stop us. | 我们可以邀请你的对手 在你的土地上建设 而你不能阻止我们 |
| 213 | This political chess game is crazy. | 这场政治围棋比赛是疯狂的. |
| 214 | And the article mentions another wild detail, too. | 而文章也提到了另一个疯狂的细节. |
| 215 | Oh, the judge. | 哦,那个法官。 |
| 216 | Right. | 对 |
| 217 | Yes. | 对 |
| 218 | The International Criminal Court has an arrest warrant out for Putin. | 国际刑事法院对普京发出逮捕令. |
| 219 | They do. | 没错 |
| 220 | And the head of that international court happens to be a Japanese citizen. | 而那个国际法院院长恰巧是日本公民。 |
| 221 | Right. | 对 |
| 222 | A Japanese judge. | 一个日本法官。 |
| 223 | And that detail really upset Moscow. | 这个细节令莫斯科很不安 |
| 224 | The court is located in the Netherlands. | 法院位于荷兰. |
| 225 | So Russia officially demanded that the Netherlands hand over this Japanese judge. | 因此俄罗斯正式要求荷兰交出这位日本法官. |
| 226 | They want the judge arrested. | 他们要逮捕法官 |
| 227 | Yes. | 对 |
| 228 | Hand it over to Russian authorities. | 交给俄国当局 |
| 229 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 230 | Let us connect all these dots here. | 让我们把这里的这些点连接起来。 |
| 231 | Let us do it. | 让我们做到这一点。 |
| 232 | Russia is pushing back on multiple fronts at the exact same time. | 俄罗斯正同时在多个战线上倒退。 |
| 233 | Right. | 对 |
| 234 | They visit the disputed islands. | 他们访问了有争议的岛屿。 |
| 235 | They invite Chinese businesses to build there. | 他们邀请中国企业在那里建设. |
| 236 | They demand the arrest of a Japanese judge. | 他们要求逮捕一名日本法官。 |
| 237 | And finally, they seize JTI's factories. | 最后,他们没收了JTI的工厂. |
| 238 | When you look at the whole list, the pattern is obvious. | 当你看整个列表时,模式是显而易见的. |
| 239 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 240 | Russia is pulling every single lever it has to pressure Japan. | 俄国正在利用一切手段 向日本施压 |
| 241 | They are trying to force Tokyo to back down. | 他们试图迫使东京倒下。 |
| 242 | So if Russia is turning up the heat like this, how can Japan respond? | 所以,如果俄罗斯这样发热,日本怎么回应? |
| 243 | Well, this brings us to Japan's Prime Minister, Sanae Takeiichi. | 这让我们来到了日本首相竹井山内 |
| 244 | Yes. | 对 |
| 245 | The article paints a very specific picture of her. | 这篇文章描绘了她非常具体的照片. |
| 246 | It certainly does. | 当然 |
| 247 | Professor Brown mentions that Prime Minister Takeiichi is often called Japan's iron lady. | 布朗教授提到首相竹井一常被称为日本的铁娘子. |
| 248 | Iron lady? | 铁小姐? |
| 249 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 250 | That nickname means she is a very tough leader, right? | 这个绰号意味着她是一个非常强硬的领袖,对不对? |
| 251 | Someone who will not back down from a fight. | 一个不会从战斗中退缩的人 |
| 252 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 253 | But Professor Brown says she needs to actually prove that strength, right, Neko? | 但是布朗教授说 她需要证明这种力量 对吧 内科 |
| 254 | Right. | 对 |
| 255 | Because just sending diplomatic complaints on a Friday is useless. | 因为周五发出外交投诉是没用的 |
| 256 | Completely useless. | 完全没用 |
| 257 | Russia is ignoring the complaints. | 俄罗斯无视这些抱怨。 |
| 258 | Professor Brown argues Japan needs to be much more assertive. | 布朗教授认为,日本需要更加坚决。 |
| 259 | So what are her options? | 她有什么选择? |
| 260 | What can the iron lady actually do? | 那个铁娘子能做什么? |
| 261 | Brown suggests some very aggressive options. | 布朗提出了一些非常积极的选择. |
| 262 | First, he says Japan should immediately withdraw its ambassador from Moscow. | 首先,他说日本应该立即从莫斯科撤出其大使. |
| 263 | The ambassador is their top diplomat. | 大使是他们的高级外交官。 |
| 264 | Bringing them home is a major sign of anger. | 带他们回家是愤怒的主要迹象。 |
| 265 | Right. | 对 |
| 266 | He also says Japan could expel Russian embassy staff living in Tokyo. | 他还表示日本可以驱逐居住在东京的俄罗斯使馆工作人员. |
| 267 | Like, kick them out of the country? | 把他们赶出乡下? |
| 268 | Yes. | 对 |
| 269 | He specifically suggests kicking out anyone they suspect of being a Russian spy. | 他特别建议把他们怀疑是俄国间谍的人赶走 |
| 270 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 271 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 272 | Okay, what else? | 好吧,还有什么? |
| 273 | The most dramatic option involves Ukraine. | 乌克兰是最引人注目的选择。 |
| 274 | Brown says Japan could warn Russia that they will send even more military support to Kiev. | 布朗表示,日本可以警告俄罗斯,他们会向基辅派遣更多的军事支援. |
| 275 | More weapons. | 再来点武器 |
| 276 | Specifically, he mentions sending air defense systems to protect Ukrainian skies. | 他具体提到派遣防空系统来保护乌克兰的天空。 |
| 277 | So the iron lady definitely has options on the table. | 所以铁娘子肯定有选择 |
| 278 | She has ways to punch back. | 她有办法反击 |
| 279 | She does. | 她会的 |
| 280 | But, and this is where the story gets really complicated, | 但是,这就是故事变得非常复杂的地方, |
| 281 | Japan might actually be trapped. | 日本也许被困住了 |
| 282 | Trapped? | 被困吗? |
| 283 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 284 | They might not be able to use any of those aggressive options. | 他们可能无法使用其中任何一种侵略性选择。 |
| 285 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 286 | Why not? | 为什么不呢? |
| 287 | This raises a very serious question. | 这提出了一个非常严重的问题。 |
| 288 | Can Japan actually afford to fight back against Russia? | 日本真的能承受得起对俄国的反击吗? |
| 289 | Another expert in the article, Professor Tadashi Anno from Sophia University, | 另一位专家,索菲亚大学的Tadashi Anno教授 |
| 290 | he points out Japan's biggest weak spot. | 他指出日本最大的弱点 |
| 291 | And that weak spot is energy. | 而弱点就是能量。 |
| 292 | Yes, energy. | 对 能量 |
| 293 | Japan is an island nation. | 日本是一个岛屿国家。 |
| 294 | They do not have their own vast natural resources. | 他们没有自己的丰富自然资源。 |
| 295 | Right. | 对 |
| 296 | They heavily rely on importing Russian oil and gas just to keep the lights on. | 他们严重依赖进口俄罗斯石油和天然气来维持灯光. |
| 297 | So this is the core of the trap? | 这就是陷阱的核心? |
| 298 | It is the ultimate trap. | 这是终极陷阱。 |
| 299 | A huge portion of this energy comes from the Sakhalin terminals. | 这种能量的一大部分来自萨哈林终端. |
| 300 | Those are located in Russia. | 这些位于俄罗斯。 |
| 301 | And Japan absolutely needs this fuel. | 日本绝对需要这种燃料。 |
| 302 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 303 | For its factories, its cities, everything. | 对于工厂,城市,一切。 |
| 304 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 305 | Professor Anno argues that Moscow knows this perfectly well. | 安诺教授认为莫斯科非常清楚这一点。 |
| 306 | So if Japan acts tough, if they kick out diplomats, Russia has a very simple response. | 因此,如果日本的行为强硬,如果他们赶走外交官,俄罗斯的反应非常简单. |
| 307 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 308 | Russia can just shut off the pipeline. | 俄罗斯可以关闭管道。 |
| 309 | They can stop sending oil and gas to Japan. | 他们可以停止向日本输送石油和天然气. |
| 310 | And the timing for Japan is terrible right now, isn't it? | 现在日本的时机很糟糕,不是吗? |
| 311 | It is awful. | 这是可怕的。 |
| 312 | Think about the global situation. | 想想全球局势。 |
| 313 | The Middle East is facing intense conflict right now. | 中东正面临激烈冲突。 |
| 314 | Right. | 对 |
| 315 | Lots of uncertainty there. | 有很多的不确定性。 |
| 316 | So buying replacement oil from other countries is extremely difficult and very expensive. | 因此,从其他国家购买替代石油是极其困难和昂贵的. |
| 317 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 318 | So Japan is completely stuck. | 因此,日本完全陷入困境。 |
| 319 | They want to project strength, | 他们想展示出力量 |
| 320 | but their entire economy runs on Russian fuel. | 但他们的整个经济都靠俄国的燃料 |
| 321 | Yep. | 对 |
| 322 | And Professor Anno brings up another major fear for Tokyo. | 安野教授又给东京带来一个重大恐惧 |
| 323 | They are deeply worried about their biggest ally. | 他们非常担心自己最大的盟友。 |
| 324 | The United States? | 美国? |
| 325 | Yes. | 对 |
| 326 | That is a critical factor here. | 这是一个关键因素。 |
| 327 | Because the U.S. recently had its midterm elections. | 因为美国最近举行了中期选举. |
| 328 | Right. | 对 |
| 329 | And because of those election results, Japan is very uncertain about the future of | 由于这些选举结果,日本对于未来的未来非常不确定。 |
| 330 | U.S. foreign policy. | 美国外交政策. |
| 331 | Japan relies heavily on the U.S. military for protection. | 日本严重依赖美军保护. |
| 332 | They do. | 没错 |
| 333 | But right now, Tokyo worries they might not have the full, | 但是现在,东京担心他们可能不够 |
| 334 | guaranteed backing of the American government. | 保证美国政府的支持。 |
| 335 | And Moscow sees this hesitation. | 而莫斯科也看到了这种犹豫. |
| 336 | Oh, they definitely see it. | 哦,他们肯定看到它。 |
| 337 | They know Japan is worried about fuel. | 他们知道日本担心燃料 |
| 338 | They know Japan is unsure about U.S. support. | 他们知道日本对美国的支持并不肯定. |
| 339 | So it is the perfect time for Russia to strike. | 所以,现在是俄罗斯发动进攻的最好时机。 |
| 340 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 341 | They might even be coordinating these pressure tactics with China. | 他们甚至可能与中国协调这些压力策略. |
| 342 | That is scary. | 这是可怕的。 |
| 343 | Now, let us talk about the public reaction in Japan. | 现在,让我们谈谈日本公众的反应。 |
| 344 | Yes. | 对 |
| 345 | This is a huge part of the story. | 这是故事的一大部分。 |
| 346 | Because normally, if a foreign government seized a major American or British company, | 因为通常,如果一个外国政府 扣押了美国或英国的大公司, |
| 347 | the public would be furious. | 公众会生气的。 |
| 348 | Oh, absolutely furious. | 哦,绝对愤怒。 |
| 349 | You would expect the Japanese public to demand action. | 你会期待日本公众要求采取行动。 |
| 350 | They should want to save JTI. | 他们应该想救JTI |
| 351 | But the article reveals a major twist here. | 但是这篇文章揭示了一个重大曲折 |
| 352 | A huge twist. | 一个巨大的曲折。 |
| 353 | Professor Toshimitsu Shigemura explains this. | 东山秀志村教授对此作了解释. |
| 354 | He is from Wasata University. | 他来自瓦萨塔大学。 |
| 355 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 356 | What does he say? | 他说什么? |
| 357 | He says the Japanese people are indeed very angry with Russia. | 他说日本人民确实对俄国非常愤怒. |
| 358 | They hate the aggressive tactics. | 他们讨厌侵略战术。 |
| 359 | They want the war to end. | 他们希望战争结束。 |
| 360 | Right. | 对 |
| 361 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 362 | But the twist is their feeling toward the company itself. | 但扭曲是他们对公司本身的感觉。 |
| 363 | The Japanese public does not feel any sorrow for JTI. | 日本公众对JTI不感到任何悲伤. |
| 364 | None at all. | 没有 |
| 365 | They have almost zero sympathy for the fact that JTI lost its factories. | 他们对JTI失去工厂的事实几乎零同情. |
| 366 | That seems so strange at first. | 一开始这看起来很奇怪 |
| 367 | The company just had its properties stolen by a foreign government. | 公司刚刚被外国政府窃取财产. |
| 368 | Why wouldn't the public support them? | 为什么公众不支持他们? |
| 369 | It all comes back to the choice JTI made in 2022. | 这一切都回到了JTI在2022年做出的选择. |
| 370 | The choice to stay in Russia. | 选择留在俄罗斯 |
| 371 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 372 | Professor Shigemura says many people in Japan were already highly critical of the company. | 茂村教授说,日本许多人已经对公司提出了高度批评. |
| 373 | Right. | 对 |
| 374 | They were disgusted that JTI chose to stay in Russia. | 他们厌恶JTI选择留在俄罗斯. |
| 375 | The public felt it was morally wrong. | 公众觉得这在道德上是错误的。 |
| 376 | They were keeping their business open and making profits in Russia while a war was happening. | 在俄国战争爆发时, |
| 377 | They saw JTI as valuing money over human lives. | 他们认为JTI把金钱放在人的生命之上。 |
| 378 | Yes. | 对 |
| 379 | Talk about a brutal irony, right? | 谈论一个残酷的讽刺,对不对? |
| 380 | Really. | 真的吗? |
| 381 | So JTI is completely trapped in the middle of this mess. | 所以JTI完全被困在这混乱之中. |
| 382 | They are. | 他们是。 |
| 383 | They try to please the Russian government by staying and paying taxes. | 他们试图通过停留和纳税来取悦俄罗斯政府. |
| 384 | But Russia seizes their factories anyway. | 但俄罗斯还是没收他们的工厂 |
| 385 | And by staying in Russia, they totally destroy their reputation at home. | 通过留在俄罗斯,他们彻底破坏了自己在家里的声誉. |
| 386 | So the Japanese public will not pressure the Prime Minister to launch a rescue mission for JTI. | 因此日本公众不会向首相施压,为JTI发起救援任务. |
| 387 | Not at all. | 一点也不 |
| 388 | I mean, Moscow's calculation here is actually brilliant in the short term. | 我的意思是,莫斯科在这里的计算 实际上是辉煌的短期。 |
| 389 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 390 | They hit a target that financially hurts the Japanese government. | 他们击中了一个在经济上伤害日本政府的目标. |
| 391 | Yes. | 对 |
| 392 | But it is a target that Japanese voters do not care about at all. | 但这是日本选民根本不在乎的目标。 |
| 393 | It is a very clever political strike. | 这是一个非常聪明的政治罢工。 |
| 394 | Moscow knows Japan is terrified of losing their oil supply. | 莫斯科知道日本害怕失去石油供应 |
| 395 | And they know the Japanese public will not protest in the streets to save a tobacco company. | 他们知道日本民众不会在街上抗议拯救一家烟草公司. |
| 396 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 397 | It looks like a total victory for Russia. | 看起来像俄罗斯的完全胜利。 |
| 398 | It does look like that in the short term. | 短期内确实如此。 |
| 399 | But we need to zoom out a bit. | 但我们需要放大一点。 |
| 400 | The article shifts its focus toward the future. | 文章将重点转向未来。 |
| 401 | Is this actually a smart move for Russia in the long run? | 从长远来看,这对俄罗斯来说是不是明智之举? |
| 402 | This is where the story completely flips. | 这是故事完全翻转的地方。 |
| 403 | Okay, tell me more. | 好吧,告诉我更多。 |
| 404 | Despite the clever short-term tactics, | 尽管很聪明的短期战术 |
| 405 | Professor Brown believes this is a huge strategic mistake by Russia. | 布朗教授认为这是俄罗斯的一个巨大的战略错误. |
| 406 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 407 | A mistake? | 一个错误? |
| 408 | Yes. | 对 |
| 409 | He thinks they will deeply regret this. | 他认为他们会对此深感遗憾。 |
| 410 | He calls it a hugely self-defeating step. | 他称它是一个巨大的自负步骤. |
| 411 | In other words, Russia is shooting itself in the foot. | 换句话说,俄罗斯正在向自己射击。 |
| 412 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 413 | Think about the current state of the Russian economy. | 想想俄罗斯经济的现状. |
| 414 | Well, the war is incredibly expensive. | 战争非常昂贵 |
| 415 | Right. | 对 |
| 416 | And international sanctions have cut them off from many global markets. | 国际制裁使它们与许多全球市场隔绝。 |
| 417 | So they desperately need Tash. | 所以他们迫切需要塔什 |
| 418 | They do. | 没错 |
| 419 | They need foreign companies to stay and support their economy. | 他们需要外国公司留下来支持经济。 |
| 420 | But look at the message they just sent. | 但看看他们刚刚发出的信息。 |
| 421 | It is a terrible message. | 这是一个可怕的信息。 |
| 422 | JTI was the perfect guest. | JTI是一个完美的客人。 |
| 423 | They played by all the rules. | 他们遵守所有规则。 |
| 424 | They paid their taxes. | 他们缴了税 |
| 425 | And they still lost absolutely everything in one day. | 一天之内他们仍然失去一切 |
| 426 | It proves a terrifying reality for businesses. | 这证明了企业的可怕现实。 |
| 427 | It does. | 没错 |
| 428 | It proves that compliance does not buy safety. | 这证明,遵守规定不能保证安全。 |
| 429 | Following the local laws does not protect your property from sudden government seizure. | 遵守当地法律不能保护你的财产不被政府突然没收. |
| 430 | Right. | 对 |
| 431 | It is like hosting a dinner party. | 这就像举办晚宴。 |
| 432 | You want people to come over and bring expensive gifts. | 你想让人们过来 带来昂贵的礼物。 |
| 433 | But as soon as they arrive, you take your best-behaved guests and lock them in the basement. | 但是他们一到,你就带上你最乖的客人,把他们锁在地下室. |
| 434 | That is a great way to put it, yes. | 说得没错 |
| 435 | If you lock your best guests in the basement, word will spread. | 如果你把最好的客人锁在地下室 消息就会传出去 |
| 436 | Right. | 对 |
| 437 | Nobody else will ever accept an invitation to your party again. | 没人会再接受你的派对邀请 |
| 438 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 439 | It is the worst possible advertisement for doing business in Russia. | 这是俄罗斯最糟糕的广告 |
| 440 | Why would any foreign CEO risk bringing their money or factories there now? | 为什么现在有外国CEO冒着带钱或工厂的风险? |
| 441 | They simply won't. | 他们不会的 |
| 442 | Professor Brown points out that CEOs around the world are watching the JTI situation very closely. | 布朗教授指出,世界各地的CEO正在非常密切地观察JTI的情况. |
| 443 | They are seeing the real consequences of trying to cooperate. | 他们看到试图合作的真正后果。 |
| 444 | Yes. | 对 |
| 445 | They will remember how JTI was treated. | 他们会记得JTI是怎样对待的。 |
| 446 | Because JTI did everything to stay on the good side of the authorities. | 因为JTI尽了一切力量 站在当局的好面子上 |
| 447 | They even let themselves get blacklisted by Ukraine. | 他们甚至让自己被乌克兰列入黑名单. |
| 448 | Right. | 对 |
| 449 | And none of that loyalty mattered in the end. | 而最后的忠诚并不重要 |
| 450 | So this single action will convince even more companies that staying in Russia is just too dangerous. | 因此,这一单项行动将使更多的公司相信留在俄罗斯太危险了。 |
| 451 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 452 | They will start quietly packing their bags. | 他们会悄悄地开始收拾行李 |
| 453 | And what happens when the war eventually ends? | 当战争最终结束时会发生什么? |
| 454 | Well, Russia will need to rebuild its economy. | 俄罗斯需要重建经济 |
| 455 | But CEOs have long memories. | 但CEO有着很长的回忆. |
| 456 | They will think twice before ever signing a contract in Russia again. | 在俄国再签合同之前 他们就会三思而后行 |
| 457 | The foundational trust is completely broken. | 基础信任被彻底打破. |
| 458 | Business relies on trust and predictability. | 企业依赖信任和可预测性。 |
| 459 | Right. | 对 |
| 460 | You need to know the rules will not just change overnight. | 你要知道规则不会在一夜之间改变 |
| 461 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 462 | Once a government proves it will seize assets just to send a political message, | 一旦一个政府证明它会没收资产 只是发出一个政治信息, |
| 463 | you cannot unring that bell. | 你不能解开铃声。 |
| 464 | It takes decades to build a reputation as a safe place for international business. | 建立国际商业安全场所的声誉需要几十年。 |
| 465 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 466 | But it only takes one official decree to destroy that reputation completely. | 但只有一项官方法令才能彻底摧毁这种声誉. |
| 467 | It is a harsh lesson. | 这是一个严酷的教训。 |
| 468 | It is. | 没错 |
| 469 | Russia used a private company to win a quick political point today. | 俄罗斯利用一家私人公司今天赢得了一个快速的政治点. |
| 470 | But they might have ruined their own economic future in the process. | 但是他们可能在这个过程中毁了自己的经济未来. |
| 471 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 472 | So let us quickly summarize the journey we took today. | 因此,让我们迅速总结我们今天的旅程。 |
| 473 | Sounds good. | 听起来不错 |
| 474 | We started by looking at a surprise business takeover. | 我们开始看到一个意外的收购。 |
| 475 | A massive Japanese company suddenly lost its factories. | 一家大型日本公司突然失去了工厂. |
| 476 | But we quickly discovered the hidden logic. | 但我们很快发现了隐藏的逻辑. |
| 477 | It was not a business decision at all. | 这不是一个商业决定。 |
| 478 | Right. | 对 |
| 479 | It was a calculated political punishment. | 这是一种精心策划的政治惩罚。 |
| 480 | Russia used a corporate hostage to attack the Japanese government. | 俄罗斯利用企业人质袭击日本政府. |
| 481 | And we saw how global politics creates impossible traps. | 我们看到全球政治是如何制造出不可能的陷阱的。 |
| 482 | Japan wants to act tough and defend its property. | 日本希望采取强硬行动,保卫自己的财产. |
| 483 | But they are caught in an energy trap. | 但他们被困在能量陷阱中。 |
| 484 | They need Russian fuel to survive. | 他们需要俄国燃料才能生存 |
| 485 | So their hands are tied. | 所以他们的手被绑住了 |
| 486 | We also explored the complex role of public opinion here. | 我们还探讨了公众舆论在这方面的复杂作用。 |
| 487 | JTI chose profits over public relations in 2022. | JTI在2022年选择利润而不是公共关系. |
| 488 | And because they lost the support of their own people back home, | 因为他们失去了家乡人民的支持 |
| 489 | they became an incredibly easy target for Russia. | 他们成为了俄罗斯非常容易的目标。 |
| 490 | But ultimately we saw how a clever political strike could be an economic disaster. | 但是,我们最终看到了一场聪明的政治罢工是如何成为一场经济灾难的. |
| 491 | By punishing the most loyal foreign company in the country, | 通过惩罚国内最忠诚的外国公司, |
| 492 | Russia guarantees that new investors will stay far away. | 俄罗斯保证新投资者将远走高飞. |
| 493 | It really highlights the danger when national governments | 这真的凸显了当国家政府 |
| 494 | start using private businesses as weapons against each other. | 开始把私人企业当作武器互相攻击 |
| 495 | That is so true. | 没错 |
| 496 | And that brings us to a final new question we want to leave you with today. | 这就让我们来谈谈我们今天要留给你的最后一个新问题。 |
| 497 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 498 | Something to really think about. | 真正值得思考的东西 |
| 499 | We clearly see what happened here. | 我们清楚地看到这里发生了什么。 |
| 500 | A government suddenly seized a fully compliant tax-paying company | 政府突然扣押了一家完全合规的纳税公司 |
| 501 | just to send a political message to a rival nation. | 向一个敌对国家发出政治信息。 |
| 502 | Right. | 对 |
| 503 | And if a major power like Russia can do this to a massive company like JTI, | 如果像俄罗斯这样的大国 能这样对待像JTI这样的大公司 |
| 504 | the basic rules of global trade have fundamentally changed. | 全球贸易的基本规则发生了根本变化。 |
| 505 | So how can any global corporation safely plan its future? | 那么,任何全球公司如何安全地规划其未来? |
| 506 | If following the law and paying taxes cannot protect your factories, | 如果遵守法律并纳税不能保护你的工厂 |
| 507 | are we entering a new era? | 我们要进入一个新时代吗? |
| 508 | It is a scary thought. | 这是一个可怕的想法。 |
| 509 | An era where doing business across international borders | 跨越国界做生意的时代 |
| 510 | is simply too dangerous to risk. | 太危险了,不能冒险 |
| 511 | That is the exact question every major CEO in the world | 世界上每个大首席执行官都这么问 |
| 512 | must be asking themselves tonight as they look at their overseas investments. | 今晚他们看海外投资时一定在问自己 |
| 513 | Definitely. | 当然 |
| 514 | Thank you so much for joining us on this deep dive. | 非常感谢你和我们一起下潜 |
| 515 | We always appreciate you spending your time with us. | 我们一直很感激你和我们在一起 |
| 516 | Keep questioning the world around you and we will talk to you next time. | 继续盘问周围的世界 我们下次再跟你谈 |
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