宁德时代赢下全球电池战，却称自己的商业模式是陷阱：转型做操作
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Imagine the company that powers almost every electric car you see. | 想象一下几乎每辆电动车都拥有动力的公司。 |
| 0:03 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:03 | They are totally winning the global race. | 他们完全赢得了全球比赛。 |
| 0:05 | But suddenly they realize their entire business model is a trap. | 但突然他们意识到 他们的整个商业模式是一个陷阱。 |
| 0:10 | Welcome to the deep dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 0:12 | Thanks. | 谢谢 |
| 0:12 | It is a really huge story today. | 今天,这是一个非常大的故事。 |
| 0:14 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 0:15 | Today we are looking at a recent report from the South China Morning Post. | 今天,我们看看《南华早报》最近发表的一份报告。 |
| 0:19 | Our mission is to explore a massive shift in the tech world. | 我们的任务是探索科技界的巨大转变. |
展开字幕全文（533 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Imagine the company that powers almost every electric car you see. | 想象一下几乎每辆电动车都拥有动力的公司。 |
| 2 | Right. | 对 |
| 3 | They are totally winning the global race. | 他们完全赢得了全球比赛。 |
| 4 | But suddenly they realize their entire business model is a trap. | 但突然他们意识到 他们的整个商业模式是一个陷阱。 |
| 5 | Welcome to the deep dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 6 | Thanks. | 谢谢 |
| 7 | It is a really huge story today. | 今天,这是一个非常大的故事。 |
| 8 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 9 | Today we are looking at a recent report from the South China Morning Post. | 今天,我们看看《南华早报》最近发表的一份报告。 |
| 10 | Our mission is to explore a massive shift in the tech world. | 我们的任务是探索科技界的巨大转变. |
| 11 | We are looking at a company named CATL. | 我们正在寻找一家叫CATL的公司。 |
| 12 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 13 | They are the undisputed king of batteries. | 他们是无可争议的电池之王。 |
| 14 | I mean, | 我是说... |
| 15 | they make the power cells for millions of electric cars. | 他们制造了数百万辆电动车的动力电池。 |
| 16 | But right now they are desperately trying to pivot. | 但是,现在他们正在拼命地试图引领。 |
| 17 | They want to move away from just selling car parts. | 他们想远离卖汽车零件 |
| 18 | Right. | 对 |
| 19 | They want to become the operating system of the future. | 他们希望成为未来的操作系统. |
| 20 | Yes. | 对 |
| 21 | It is a massive change. | 这是一个巨大的变化。 |
| 22 | So if you care about electric cars, this deep dive is for you. | 如果你在乎电动车, 这个深潜是给你的。 |
| 23 | If you track clean energy, you know, you need to hear this. | 如果你跟踪干净的能量,你知道, 你需要听到这个。 |
| 24 | And if you follow the artificial intelligence boom, this affects you too. | 如果你跟随人工智能的繁荣 这也会影响你 |
| 25 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 26 | Let's unpack this. | 把这个拆开 |
| 27 | What exactly is happening to the king of batteries? | 电池之王到底怎么了? |
| 28 | Well, it is a fascinating situation. | 嗯,这是一个有趣的情况。 |
| 29 | We really need to look at their financial pressures first. | 我们真的需要先看看他们的财政压力。 |
| 30 | Because they are a massive, successful company, right? | 因为他们是一个庞大的,成功的公司,对不对? |
| 31 | They are. | 他们是。 |
| 32 | But their main business is under heavy attack right now. | 但是他们的主要业务现在受到猛烈攻击. |
| 33 | They are facing a brutal squeeze on their profits. | 他们的利润正面临残酷的挤压。 |
| 34 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 35 | Where is the pressure coming from? | 压力从何而来? |
| 36 | First, there are intense price wars across the whole industry. | 首先,整个行业都发生了激烈的价格战争。 |
| 37 | Battery technology is just getting easier to copy. | 电池技术越来越容易复制. |
| 38 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 39 | So everyone is making them. | 所以每个人都在做 |
| 40 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 41 | So everyone is trying to sell batteries cheaper to win customers. | 所以每个人都想卖更便宜的电池来赢得顾客。 |
| 42 | So the product itself is losing its special value. | 因此,产品本身正在失去其特殊价值。 |
| 43 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 44 | What else is hitting them? | 还有什么在打他们? |
| 45 | The second major issue is regulation. | 第二个主要问题是监管。 |
| 46 | There are new taxes on battery use. | 对电池的使用有新的税收。 |
| 47 | New taxes? | 新税? |
| 48 | Where? | 哪里? 哪里来的? |
| 49 | Specifically, China has brought back a battery consumption tax. | 具体来说,中国又重新征收了电池消费税. |
| 50 | And this adds a direct cost to their products at home. | 这增加了他们家产品的直接成本。 |
| 51 | Oh, that is rough. | 哦,这是粗糙的。 |
| 52 | And third, there is a big problem with their exports. | 第三,他们的出口有大问题。 |
| 53 | Normally, companies get tax returns from the government when they export goods. | 通常情况下,公司在出口商品时会从政府获得纳税申报. |
| 54 | Right. | 对 |
| 55 | Like a reward for selling internationally. | 像奖励国际销售。 |
| 56 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 57 | But these export tax refunds are being sharply reduced right now. | 但是,这些出口退税正在急剧减少。 |
| 58 | And that is a terrible combination of bad news. | 这是坏消息的可怕组合。 |
| 59 | The price of their product is dropping. | 他们的产品价格正在下降。 |
| 60 | Yes, rapidly. | 是的,快点。 |
| 61 | At the same time, their tax burden at home is rising. | 同时,他们在国内的税收负担也在增加。 |
| 62 | And their tax benefits abroad are disappearing. | 他们在国外的税收福利正在消失。 |
| 63 | You nailed it. | 你钉住了它。 |
| 64 | And the stock market reacted very quickly to this. | 而股市对此反应很快. |
| 65 | Investors saw the danger and started selling their shares. | 投资者看到了危险,开始出售他们的股票。 |
| 66 | So the stock price dropped. | 于是股价下跌. |
| 67 | Heavily. | 严重。 |
| 68 | In fact, their shares in Hong Kong hit a record low. | 事实上,他们在香港的股份创下历史新低. |
| 69 | It was the lowest price since they started trading on that market. | 这是他们开始在市场上交易以来的最低价格。 |
| 70 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 71 | That is serious. | 这是严重的。 |
| 72 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 73 | And investors are also worried about new trade barriers in Europe and America. | 而投资者也担心欧美出现新的贸易壁垒. |
| 74 | I want to make sure we understand the core business problem here. | 我想确保我们了解这里的核心商业问题。 |
| 75 | The report mentions their profit margin is shrinking. | 报告提到他们的利润率正在缩小。 |
| 76 | Right. | 对 |
| 77 | In this specific context, why is that happening so fast? | 在这一具体背景下,为什么发生得这么快? |
| 78 | It comes down to a squeeze between costs and prices. | 成本和价格之间的挤压。 |
| 79 | Your profit margin is the money you keep after paying all your expenses. | 您的利润率是您支付所有费用后保留的钱。 |
| 80 | Right, the actual money you take home. | 对,你带回家的钱 |
| 81 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 82 | Right. | 对 |
| 83 | Now, the raw materials to make batteries are still expensive. | 现在,制造电池的原材料仍然昂贵. |
| 84 | The workers and the factories cost a lot of money. | 工人和工厂花费很多钱. |
| 85 | And now the taxes are adding a huge new expense. | 而现在的税收 增加了巨大的新开支。 |
| 86 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 87 | But because of that fierce price war, CATL cannot raise their prices. | 但由于这场激烈的价格战争,CATL无法提高价格. |
| 88 | They actually have to lower them. | 他们实际上必须降低它们。 |
| 89 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 90 | So the gap between what they spend and what they earn is getting very narrow. | 因此,他们所花的钱和收入之间的差距越来越小。 |
| 91 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 92 | It is a very tight squeeze. | 这是一个非常严格的挤压。 |
| 93 | It reminds me of a champion runner. | 这让我想起了冠军选手 |
| 94 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 95 | Well, imagine a runner who is the fastest in the world. | 想象一下 跑者是世界上最快的 |
| 96 | They are winning every single race. | 他们每场比赛都要赢 |
| 97 | But suddenly, the track is covered in thick mud. | 但突然间,赛道被厚厚的泥土覆盖. |
| 98 | The mud is the industry price war. | 泥是工业价格战. |
| 99 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 100 | It slows them down. | 让他们慢下来。 |
| 101 | At the exact same time, officials force the runner to wear a heavy weighted vest. | 同时,官员们还强迫跑者穿重型加权背心. |
| 102 | And that heavy vest is the new taxes. | 那件重背心是新的税 |
| 103 | Right. | 对 |
| 104 | They are still the strongest runner on the track, | 他们仍然是赛道上最强的跑者 |
| 105 | but every single step takes much more energy. | 但每一个步骤都需要更多的能量 |
| 106 | They are losing their massive lead. | 他们正在失去他们的大线索。 |
| 107 | That is a great way to put it. | 说来话长 |
| 108 | So what does this all mean for their future? | 这对他们的未来意味着什么? |
| 109 | What's fascinating is how CATL is reacting to this burden. | 令人着迷的是CATL是如何对这个负担作出反应的. |
| 110 | They know they cannot just keep running in the mud. | 他们知道他们不能一直跑在泥土里 |
| 111 | Right. | 对 |
| 112 | They will get too tired. | 他们会太累了。 |
| 113 | If they just keep selling basic batteries, they will eventually lose the race. | 如果他们继续出售基本电池,最终会输掉比赛. |
| 114 | They must find totally new ways to make money. | 他们必须找到全新的赚钱方式。 |
| 115 | So they have to change the rules of the race itself. | 因此他们必须改变种族本身的规则. |
| 116 | Yes. | 对 |
| 117 | This urgent need to survive is pushing them forward. | 这种生存的迫切需要正在推动着他们前进。 |
| 118 | It leads straight into their first massive gamble. | 这直接导致了他们的第一次大规模赌博。 |
| 119 | Let's look closely at that gamble. | 让我们仔细看看这场赌博。 |
| 120 | The report calls it a race for time. | 报告称这是一场时间竞赛。 |
| 121 | And it involves a technology called battery swapping. | 它涉及到一种叫做电池交换的技术。 |
| 122 | Yes. | 对 |
| 123 | CATL is moving incredibly fast into the battery swapping business. | CATL正在快速地进入电池交换业务。 |
| 124 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 125 | Let's explain how normal electric cars work today first. | 让我们先解释一下正常的电动车今天是如何工作的. |
| 126 | Usually you drive to a station, plug your car into a charger, and you wait. | 通常你开车去车站,把车塞进充电器,然后等待. |
| 127 | Right. | 对 |
| 128 | And even with a good charger, it can take a long time. | 即使有好充电器,也可能需要很长时间. |
| 129 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 130 | Battery swapping is a totally different physical approach. | 电池交换是一种完全不同的物理方法。 |
| 131 | You drive your car into a special automated station. | 你开车去一个特殊的自动车站 |
| 132 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 133 | And then what happens? | 然后会发生什么? |
| 134 | A robotic machine underneath the car physically removes your empty battery. | 汽车下方的机器人可以切除你的空电池 |
| 135 | Then the machine lifts a fully charged battery and installs it into your car. | 然后机器举起充电的电池 安装在你的车上 |
| 136 | Wait. | 单单 |
| 137 | It is exactly like changing the AA batteries in a remote control. | 这就像在遥控器中更换AA电池一样。 |
| 138 | But you are doing it with a massive vehicle. | 但你是用一辆车来做 |
| 139 | That is the perfect way to picture it. | 这是描绘它的最佳方法。 |
| 140 | It is simple, but on a massive industrial scale. | 很简单,但规模庞大。 |
| 141 | And what is the main benefit? | 那主要的好处是什么? |
| 142 | The biggest advantage is the speed. | 最大的优势是速度. |
| 143 | The entire automated process takes only three to five minutes. | 整个自动化过程只需要3到5分钟. |
| 144 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 145 | That is incredibly fast. | 这太快了 |
| 146 | That is basically the same time it takes to fill up a regular car with gas. | 这跟给普通车装上汽油差不多 |
| 147 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 148 | That is the goal. | 这就是目标。 |
| 149 | But they are not the only ones trying to solve the speed problem. | 但他们并不是唯一想要解决速度问题的人。 |
| 150 | They have serious competition, right? | 他们有严重的竞争,对不对? |
| 151 | They have very aggressive competition. | 他们的竞争非常激烈 |
| 152 | There are two main rivals we need to look at. | 有两个主要的对手 我们需要看看。 |
| 153 | First, there is BYD. | 首先,这是BYD。 |
| 154 | BYD,没错。 | |
| 155 | They're China's second largest battery maker. | 他们是中国第二大电池制造商. |
| 156 | Yes. | 对 |
| 157 | And they are pushing a completely different solution. | 他们正在推动一个完全不同的解决办法。 |
| 158 | They are betting on something called flash charging. | 他们赌的是所谓的闪电充电 |
| 159 | How does flash charging compare to swapping? | 闪存充电与互换相比如何? |
| 160 | Flash charging still means plugging the car into a cable. | 闪电充电仍然意味着将车塞入电缆. |
| 161 | But they use incredibly powerful electrical currents. | 但他们使用强大的电流。 |
| 162 | So it just pushes power in much faster. | 因此,它只是推力 更快。 |
| 163 | Right. | 对 |
| 164 | This technology can charge the battery to almost full in under 10 minutes. | 这种技术可以在不到10分钟内将电池充电到几乎满载. |
| 165 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 166 | So BYD wants to build super fast chargers everywhere. | 所以BYD想到处建造超快充电机. |
| 167 | And CATL wants to build stations that swap the whole battery out. | CATL想建站 交换整个电池。 |
| 168 | That is a very clear technology battle. | 这是一个非常明确的技术战。 |
| 169 | Swapping versus super fast charging. | 冲浪对超快充电。 |
| 170 | But you mentioned a second major rival earlier. | 但你刚才提到了第二个主要对手 |
| 171 | Yes. | 对 |
| 172 | The second rival is a major electric car company named NEO. | 第二个竞争对手是一家名为近地天体的大型电动汽车公司. |
| 173 | NEO? | 近地物体? |
| 174 | NEO. | 近地点。 |
| 175 | What are they doing? | 他们在干什么? |
| 176 | NEO is not just testing battery swapping. | 近地物体不仅仅是测试换电池 |
| 177 | They are already very strong in it. | 它们已经非常强大。 |
| 178 | They've been building swapping stations for years. | 他们多年来一直在建设换乘站. |
| 179 | Oh. | 瓳 |
| 180 | So they are already way ahead. | 所以他们已经领先了。 |
| 181 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 182 | They have a massive working network of these stations right now. | 他们有一个庞大的工作网络 这些电台现在。 |
| 183 | So CATL is actually late to this specific game. | 因此CATL实际上已经迟到了这个特定的游戏. |
| 184 | They're trying to catch up to NEO's early lead. | 他们试图赶上近地物体早期的领先. |
| 185 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 186 | The report gives some very specific details on this catch up strategy. | 报告就这一赶超战略提供了一些非常具体的细节。 |
| 187 | It notes that CATL just made four big partnerships in a single month. | 它注意到CATL刚在一个月里结成了四个大的合作关系. |
| 188 | Yes. | 对 |
| 189 | That is a huge move. | 这是一个巨大的举动。 |
| 190 | They are teaming up with major car manufacturers. | 他们正在和主要的汽车制造商合作 |
| 191 | They want these car makers to design their cars to fit CATL's swapping technology. | 他们希望这些汽车制造商设计自己的汽车以适应CATL的互换技术. |
| 192 | Right. | 对 |
| 193 | One of these partners is Dongfeng Motor Corporation. | 其中一位合伙人是东风汽车公司. |
| 194 | Dongfeng is a massive state-owned auto company, right? | 东风是一个大型的国有汽车公司,对吧? |
| 195 | Yes. | 对 |
| 196 | That is a big win for CATL. | 这对CATL来说是大赢家 |
| 197 | But another partner on that list is even more interesting. | 但名单上的另一个伙伴更有趣。 |
| 198 | Who is it? | 是谁? |
| 199 | CATL partnered with a company owned by Huawei. | CATL与华伟拥有的一家公司合作. |
| 200 | The huge tech and software company. | 巨型科技软件公司. |
| 201 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 202 | So CATL is building a very powerful team to push their technology. | 所以CATL正在建立一个非常强大的团队来推动他们的技术. |
| 203 | The report also brings up a company called Geely Auto. | 该报告还提起了一家叫吉利汽车的公司. |
| 204 | The numbers here are just huge. | 这里的数字是巨大的。 |
| 205 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 206 | They are staggering. | 它们是惊人的。 |
| 207 | In just one month, in August, Geely bought almost 10% of CATL's total global battery supply. | 在短短一个月的8月,吉利收购了近10%的全球CATL电池总供应量. |
| 208 | That is a massive amount of volume for one single customer. | 这对一个客户来说是巨大的量。 |
| 209 | But here is the critical detail. | 但这里是关键的细节。 |
| 210 | Geely is also actively working with NIO. | 吉利还积极与NIO合作. |
| 211 | Right. | 对 |
| 212 | Geely signed a deal with NIO to expand battery swapping together. | Geely与NIO签下协议,共同扩大电池互换. |
| 213 | That is wild. | 这是疯狂的。 |
| 214 | This specific detail shows how intense the market competition is. | 这一具体细节显示了市场竞争的激烈程度. |
| 215 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 216 | Car makers like Geely do not want to rely on just one supplier. | 像吉利这样的汽车制造商 不想只依赖一个供应商 |
| 217 | They want the best technology, but they want backup plants. | 他们想要最好的技术,但他们想要后备植物. |
| 218 | Yes. | 对 |
| 219 | They will work with multiple competing companies. | 他们将与多个竞争公司合作。 |
| 220 | This forces CATL to move even faster. | 这迫使CATL移动更快. |
| 221 | Because if Geely fully chooses NIO's system, CATL loses a massive chunk of their future business. | 因为如果Geely完全选择了NIO的系统,CATL就失去了他们未来业务的一大块. |
| 222 | That is exactly the danger. | 这正是危险所在。 |
| 223 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 224 | I have to push back on this whole swapping strategy. | 我必须退缩 整个交换策略。 |
| 225 | I have a very practical question. | 我有个非常实际的问题 |
| 226 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 227 | Go ahead. | 来吧。 |
| 228 | If swapping is so fast, why is it actually a good business model? | 如果互换速度这么快,为什么它实际上是一个很好的商业模式? |
| 229 | Doesn't it cost a ton of money to build all those swapping stations? | 建造这些交换站不是要花一吨钱吗? |
| 230 | Yes. | 对 |
| 231 | It is incredibly expensive. | 这太贵了 |
| 232 | I mean, you have to buy expensive land in big cities. | 我的意思是,你必须购买 昂贵的土地在大城市。 |
| 233 | You have to build complex robotic machinery. | 你必须建造复杂的机器人机械。 |
| 234 | And you have to buy extra batteries just to sit in the station waiting for cars. | 你要多买点电池 坐在车站等车 |
| 235 | It sounds like a financial nightmare. | 这听起来像一个金融噩梦。 |
| 236 | You are raising the most important point. | 你提出最重要的一点。 |
| 237 | Building these stations is incredibly difficult. | 建造这些车站非常困难。 |
| 238 | It costs a true fortune. | 这需要真正的财富。 |
| 239 | So why would a smart company like CATL do it? | 为什么像CATL这样的聪明公司会这么做? |
| 240 | The answer is long-term control. | 答案是长期控制。 |
| 241 | To survive the next decade, CATL knows they cannot just sell cheap batteries. | 为了在接下来的十年中生存,CATL知道他们不能仅仅出售廉价电池. |
| 242 | Because batteries are just becoming a basic cheap item? | 因为电池只是 成为一个基本的廉价物品? |
| 243 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 244 | So they must control the entire energy system. | 所以他们必须控制整个能源系统。 |
| 245 | They want to own the physical stations, | 他们想拥有物理站, |
| 246 | the batteries inside them, and the software running at all. | 里面的电池, 软件运行。 |
| 247 | They do not just want to supply parts. | 他们不只是想要供应零件。 |
| 248 | They want to own the whole user experience. | 他们想拥有整个用户体验. |
| 249 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 250 | And that perfectly takes us to a key insight from the report. | 这完全使我们从报告中得出一个关键见解。 |
| 251 | They want to become a platform. | 他们想成为一个平台。 |
| 252 | Yes. | 对 |
| 253 | The source material explains the shift perfectly. | 源材料完美地解释了转变. |
| 254 | There is a great quote from a business director named Lucas Zong. | 有个叫卢卡斯·宗的商人 引用了很多话 |
| 255 | What does he say? | 他说什么? |
| 256 | He states very clearly that CATL needs to evolve. | 他非常明确地指出,CATL需要进化. |
| 257 | They must stop acting like just a traditional factory. | 他们不能像传统工厂一样 |
| 258 | Right. | 对 |
| 259 | A factory simply makes parts and sells them to someone else. | 一个工厂只是制造零件,然后卖给别人。 |
| 260 | Instead, he says, they must become a standard setting platform. | 相反,他说,它们必须成为一个标准制定平台。 |
| 261 | They need to build a fully connected system. | 他们需要建立一个完全连接的系统. |
| 262 | Let's make sure we clearly explain that term. | 让我们确保我们清楚地解释这个词。 |
| 263 | What exactly is a standard setting platform? | 什么是标准设置平台? |
| 264 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 265 | It sounds like heavy business jargon. | 这听起来像沉重的商业术语。 |
| 266 | In simple terms, it means creating the basic rules that everyone else has to follow. | 简言之,这意味着创造其他人必须遵循的基本规则. |
| 267 | Kind of like a computer operating system, like Windows. | 有点像电脑操作系统 像Windows |
| 268 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 269 | If you own the operating system, | 如果你拥有操作系统 |
| 270 | every single software developer has to follow your specific rules to make their programs work. | 每一个软件开发者都必须遵守你的具体规则来使其程序发挥作用. |
| 271 | So CATL wants to be the underlying operating system for all electric cars. | 因此CATL希望成为所有电动汽车的基本操作系统. |
| 272 | That is exactly right. | 没错 |
| 273 | If CATL successfully sets the standard for battery swapping, | 如果CATL成功设定了电池交换标准, |
| 274 | everyone else is locked in. | 其他人都被锁在里面了 |
| 275 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 276 | Car makers will be forced to design their cars to fit CATL's exact battery shape. | 汽车制造商将被迫设计自己的汽车以适应CATL准确的电池形状. |
| 277 | And drivers will be forced to use CATL's specific swapping stations. | 而司机将被迫使用CATL的特定互换站. |
| 278 | This gives CATL immense long-term power over the whole market. | 这使得CATL对整个市场拥有巨大的长期权力. |
| 279 | Here's where it gets really interesting. | 这是真正有趣的。 |
| 280 | I like to think about this using a coffee analogy. | 我喜欢用一个咖啡类比来考虑这个问题。 |
| 281 | Okay, let's hear it. | 好吧,让我们听听。 |
| 282 | For years, CATL just sold the raw coffee beans. | 多年来,CATL刚刚出售了生咖啡豆. |
| 283 | They sold these beans to the car makers. | 他们把这些豆子卖给了汽车制造商. |
| 284 | And the car makers brewed the coffee and sold the final drink to the driver. | 汽车制造商酿造了咖啡,并将最后的饮料卖给了司机. |
| 285 | Right. | 对 |
| 286 | But now, coffee beans are getting really cheap. | 但现在咖啡豆越来越便宜了 |
| 287 | Anyone can grow them. | 任何人都可以种它们。 |
| 288 | So they are changing their game. | 所以他们正在改变他们的游戏。 |
| 289 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 290 | Now, they want to own the whole coffee shop chain. | 现在,他们想拥有整个咖啡店链。 |
| 291 | They want to build the physical shops. | 他们想建商店 |
| 292 | They want to serve the drinks. | 稱倒и耻皊 |
| 293 | And they want to make sure you can only drink their specific brand of coffee. | 他们想要确保你只能喝他们特有的咖啡 |
| 294 | Yes. | 对 |
| 295 | They want to lock the customer into their system. | 他们想把客户锁在他们的系统里 |
| 296 | That analogy captures the strategy perfectly. | 这一类比完全抓住了战略。 |
| 297 | They want to move away from selling a raw, cheap material. | 他们想摆脱出售廉价原材料的做法。 |
| 298 | They want to capture the value of the entire experience. | 他们想要抓住整个经验的价值. |
| 299 | But if we connect this to the bigger picture, | 但如果我们把这件事和大局联系起来 |
| 300 | electric cars are just the starting line. | 电动汽车只是起点 |
| 301 | Wait, there is more? | 等等,还有吗? |
| 302 | Oh, yes. | 对 |
| 303 | Controlling the power system for cars is only phase one of the plan. | 控制汽车的动力系统只是计划的第一阶段. |
| 304 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 305 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 306 | CATL sees a massive growing need for power in a totally different place. | CATL认为,在完全不同的地方,对权力的需求正在增长。 |
| 307 | They see a huge opportunity in a completely different industry. | 他们在完全不同的行业里看到了一个巨大的机会. |
| 308 | And this next project is absolutely massive. | 下一个项目绝对是巨大的。 |
| 309 | We are talking about powering the artificial intelligence boom. | 我们说的是为人工智能繁荣提供动力。 |
| 310 | Yes. | 对 |
| 311 | This is their next major pivot. | 这是他们的下一个主要支柱。 |
| 312 | CATL is investing billions of dollars into something called energy storage. | CATL正在投资数十亿美元 用于所谓的能量存储。 |
| 313 | Let's define energy storage for the listener. | 让我们给听众定义能量储存. |
| 314 | We are no longer talking about small car batteries here. | 我们不再谈论小型汽车电池。 |
| 315 | No, not at all. | 不,一点也不。 |
| 316 | We are talking about giant industrial batteries. | 我们谈论的是巨大的工业电池。 |
| 317 | These are massive units used to store power for large buildings. | 这些是用来存储大型建筑动力的大型单位. |
| 318 | They also store power for the main electric grid. | 他们还为主电网储存电力. |
| 319 | Right. | 对 |
| 320 | For example, when the wind blows hard, wind turbines make a lot of energy. | 例如,当风吹得硬的时候,风力涡轮能产生大量的能量. |
| 321 | You can store that extra energy in these giant batteries. | 你可以把多余的能量储存在这些巨大的电池里。 |
| 322 | Then you release it into the grid later when the wind stops blowing. | 然后当风停止吹的时候 把它放入电网 |
| 323 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 324 | It is about balancing the power grid. | 这是关于平衡电网。 |
| 325 | And CATL is spending a massive amount of money to dominate this space. | 而CATL正在花费大量的资金来支配这个空间. |
| 326 | The report highlights that they just established a brand new company | 报告强调他们刚刚建立了一个全新的公司 |
| 327 | dedicated entirely to energy storage. | 完全致力于能源储存。 |
| 328 | Yes. | 对 |
| 329 | They spent five billion yuan to start this new venture. | 他们花了50亿元人民币来启动这个新企业. |
| 330 | That is roughly 750 million US dollars. | 这大约是7.5亿美元。 |
| 331 | It is a huge financial commitment. | 这是一项巨大的财政承诺。 |
| 332 | And they are not just building the physical batteries. | 他们不只是在建造电池。 |
| 333 | Their plan includes building AI software to manage how this power flows. | 他们的计划包括建造AI软件来管理这种电流. |
| 334 | They are also expanding this strategy globally right now. | 他们还正在全球范围扩大这一战略。 |
| 335 | The report mentions a massive new project being built in Germany. | 报告提到德国正在建设的大型新项目。 |
| 336 | Yes. | 对 |
| 337 | CATL is building a stationary power project there. | CATL正在在那里建造固定电源项目. |
| 338 | But they are using something called sodium ion batteries. | 但他们正在使用 钠离子电池。 |
| 339 | That detail about sodium ion is really crucial to understand. | 有关钠离子的这个细节,对于理解非常关键. |
| 340 | Most electric car batteries today use lithium, right? | 今天大多数电动汽车电池都使用锂,对吧? |
| 341 | Correct. | 没错 |
| 342 | Lithium is very light and it holds a lot of energy. | 锂非常轻,并具有大量的能量. |
| 343 | That makes it perfect for a moving car. | 这使得它很适合移动的汽车。 |
| 344 | But lithium is also very expensive. | 但是锂也非常昂贵. |
| 345 | Yes. | 对 |
| 346 | Sodium, on the other hand, is incredibly common. | 另一方面,钠非常常见。 |
| 347 | It is the exact same element found in table salt. | 它是在表盐中发现的完全相同的元素. |
| 348 | So why don't we use sodium in cars? | 我们为什么不在车上用钠? |
| 349 | Because sodium ion batteries are much heavier. | 因为钠离子电池重得多. |
| 350 | They also hold a bit less energy per pound. | 它们每磅的能量也少一点 |
| 351 | Ah. | 摆 |
| 352 | So you do not want a heavy, weak battery in a sports car. | 所以你不想让运动车上的电池变弱 |
| 353 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 354 | But think about a stationary building. | 但想个固定的建筑 |
| 355 | A building does not move. | 建筑物不会动 |
| 356 | Weight does not matter at all. | 体重根本不重要。 |
| 357 | That makes total sense. | 这是完全合理的。 |
| 358 | Sodium ion batteries are extremely cheap to make. | 钠离子电池的制造极为廉价. |
| 359 | They are the perfect low-cost solution | 他们是完美的低成本解决方案 |
| 360 | for storing massive amounts of energy next to a building. | 将大量的能量储存在建筑物旁边 |
| 361 | And CATL is partnering with a German company | CATL正在和一个德国公司合作 |
| 362 | called Antillion to deploy this cheap technology. | 叫安提利昂来部署这种廉价技术 |
| 363 | Right. | 对 |
| 364 | But they cannot escape their rivals here either. | 但他们也逃不过对手 |
| 365 | BYD is fighting them in this market too. | BYD也在这个市场上和他们抗争. |
| 366 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 367 | BYD is also rapidly expanding their energy storage business overseas. | BYD也在迅速扩展其海外储能业务. |
| 368 | The report notes that BYD just started building a massive project in Poland. | 报告指出,BYD刚刚开始在波兰建设大型项目. |
| 369 | And they started building it only three months after signing the agreement. | 而且他们在签署协议后才开始建造. |
| 370 | That speed is incredible. | 这种速度是不可思议的。 |
| 371 | The entire energy industry is moving at lightning speed right now. | 整个能源产业正在以闪电的速度前进。 |
| 372 | Every major company wants a piece of this market. | 每个大公司都想要这个市场的一部分 |
| 373 | But we have to ask why. | 但是我们必须问为什么。 |
| 374 | Why is the demand for grid batteries suddenly exploding? | 为什么对电网电池的需求突然爆发? |
| 375 | The report gives a very clear answer. | 报告给出了一个非常明确的答复。 |
| 376 | It shares a vital insight from a director named Yang Jing. | 它与一位名叫杨晶的导演有着共同的重要见解. |
| 377 | 她在金融公司Fitch Ratings工作 对吧? | |
| 378 | Yes. | 对 |
| 379 | And she points out that there is a massive, | 她指出,有一个巨大的, |
| 380 | brand-new source of demand for global electricity. | 全球电力需求的全新来源。 |
| 381 | Where exactly is all this new demand coming from? | 这些新要求究竟来自何处? |
| 382 | It is driven entirely by artificial intelligence. | 它完全由人工智能驱动。 |
| 383 | Think about modern AI data centers. | 想想现代AI数据中心. |
| 384 | Right. | 对 |
| 385 | Those giant warehouse-sized buildings filled with powerful computers. | 那些巨大的仓库大小的建筑 充满了强大的计算机。 |
| 386 | Yes. | 对 |
| 387 | These computers run constantly to train new AI models. | 这些计算机不断运行以训练新的AI模型. |
| 388 | They process millions of AI requests every single second. | 他们每秒处理数百万个AI请求. |
| 389 | And they consume incredible amounts of electricity. | 他们消耗了惊人的电量。 |
| 390 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 391 | And it is not just the computers calculating. | 这不仅仅是计算机的计算。 |
| 392 | It is also the heat. | 这也是热。 |
| 393 | Oh, right. | 对 |
| 394 | Because the computer trips run incredibly hot. | 因为电脑旅行非常热 |
| 395 | So a huge portion of that electricity is just used for massive cooling systems. | 所以,很大一部分的电力 仅仅用于大规模冷却系统。 |
| 396 | AI requires massive, continuous amounts of stable power. | AI需要大量,持续的稳定力量. |
| 397 | Wait. | 单单 |
| 398 | I have to stop and ask. | 我不得不停下来问。 |
| 399 | How does a company that makes car parts end up powering artificial intelligence? | 制造汽车零件的公司如何最终为人工智能提供动力?. |
| 400 | It sounds crazy, right? | 听起来很疯狂,对吧? |
| 401 | Are we really going to see CATL batteries running the internet? | 我们真的会看到 CATL 电池运行互联网? |
| 402 | It is actually a very logical step. | 这实际上是一个非常合乎逻辑的步骤。 |
| 403 | The main power grid cannot always provide perfectly stable energy. | 主电网不能总是提供完全稳定的能源。 |
| 404 | Right. | 对 |
| 405 | Sometimes the power dips slightly. | 有时电量会微微下降. |
| 406 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 407 | Sometimes the lights flicker. | 有时灯光闪烁。 |
| 408 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 409 | But an AI data center cannot afford to lose power for even one single second. | 但一个AI数据中心连一秒钟都无法失去动力. |
| 410 | Because if the power drops, the computers crash. | 因为如果电源下降,电脑就会崩溃。 |
| 411 | And the AI training process is ruined. | 而AI的训练过程也毁了. |
| 412 | It could cost millions of dollars in a single second. | 一秒钟内可能要花费数百万美元. |
| 413 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 414 | So these data centers need massive backup batteries on site. | 所以这些数据中心需要大量的备用电池 |
| 415 | They need a perfectly stable power supply at all times. | 他们随时需要完全稳定的电力供应. |
| 416 | CATL realized this. | CATL意识到这一点。 |
| 417 | They want to sell these data centers those exact giant backup batteries. | 他们想要卖掉这些数据中心 确切的巨型备用电池 |
| 418 | That is a wild but brilliant connection. | 这是一个野性但辉煌的联系。 |
| 419 | A company makes simple parts for cars. | 公司为汽车制造简单的零件. |
| 420 | Then they realize the world's most advanced computers are desperate for power. | 然后他们意识到世界上最先进的计算机 渴望电力。 |
| 421 | So they pivot their entire massive factory system to power the brains of artificial intelligence. | 所以他们把整个庞大的工厂系统 引向人工智能的大脑。 |
| 422 | It really shows how every future technology is connected by basic energy. | 它真的显示了未来每一种技术 如何通过基本的能量连接起来。 |
| 423 | But this brings us back to a very practical question. | 但这使我们回到一个非常实际的问题。 |
| 424 | We need to look at their financial future. | 我们需要看看他们的金融未来。 |
| 425 | Will this massive pivot actually work? | 这个巨大的支点真的有用吗? |
| 426 | That is the ultimate question for investors right now. | 这是投资者现在面临的最终问题。 |
| 427 | Will these expensive new plans save CATL's shrinking profits? | 这些昂贵的新计划会节省CATL收缩的利润吗? |
| 428 | The sources give us two very different expert views on this. | 消息来源对此提出了两种截然不同的专家观点。 |
| 429 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 430 | The experts totally disagree with each other on the timeline. | 专家在时间问题上完全不同意。 |
| 431 | Let's look at the pessimistic view first. | 先观悲观. |
| 432 | The report quotes an analyst named Ethan Zhang. | 报告引用了一位叫张伊森的分析师的话. |
| 433 | Right. | 对 |
| 434 | He works at a financial firm called Nomura. | 他在一家叫野村的财务公司工作 |
| 435 | What is his outlook? | 他的前景如何? |
| 436 | Ethan Zhang is very cautious about the near future. | 伊森·张 is对近期非常谨慎. |
| 437 | He thinks the new government taxes will hurt CATL very deeply. | 他认为新的政府税会给CATL造成非常严重的伤害. |
| 438 | Remember that battery consumption tax we talked about? | 还记得我们说过的电池消费税吗? |
| 439 | Yes. | 对 |
| 440 | He believes this specific tax burden is a critical problem. | 他认为这种具体的税收负担是一个关键问题. |
| 441 | He says it will severely hurt their profitability in the short term. | 他说这在短期内会严重伤害他们的盈利能力. |
| 442 | He is so concerned that he actually cut his profit forecast for the company. | 他非常担心他实际上削减了对公司的利润预测. |
| 443 | Right. | 对 |
| 444 | He lowered his profit guess for the next three years by about 10 percent. | 在接下来的三年里,他将利润估计降低了10%。 |
| 445 | A 10 percent cut in expected profits is a very dark signal. | 10%的预期利润削减 是一个非常黑暗的信号。 |
| 446 | He essentially thinks that heavy weighted vest is going to slow the runner down too much. | 他基本上认为重压背心会让跑者减慢太多 |
| 447 | But CATL knows about this tax problem. | 但CATL知道这个税收问题. |
| 448 | They are not just sitting there accepting it. | 他们不只是坐在那里接受它。 |
| 449 | No. | 没有 |
| 450 | They're taking action. | 他们正在采取行动。 |
| 451 | The report notes they are actively talking to car makers right now. | 报告指出,他们目前正在积极与汽车制造商交谈。 |
| 452 | They are trying to negotiate. | 他们试图谈判。 |
| 453 | Right. | 对 |
| 454 | They want the car makers to share the cost of these new taxes. | 他们希望汽车制造商分担这些新税的成本. |
| 455 | That is a very standard business move. | 这是一个非常标准的商业举动。 |
| 456 | If your costs go up, you try to make your customer pay for the difference. | 如果你的成本上升,你试图 让你的客户支付差额。 |
| 457 | But those car makers are fighting their own brutal price wars. | 但那些汽车制造者正在打他们自己的残酷的价格战争。 |
| 458 | True. | 没错 |
| 459 | They want cheaper parts, not more expensive ones. | 他们想要更便宜的零件 而不是更贵的 |
| 460 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 461 | They might just refuse to pay the extra cost. | 他们可能只是拒绝支付额外费用。 |
| 462 | So that is the negative view. | 这就是负面观点。 |
| 463 | The taxes will drain their cash. | 税收会消耗他们的现金。 |
| 464 | But the report also offers a much more positive view of the future. | 但是,报告也对未来提出了更积极的看法。 |
| 465 | Yes. | 对 |
| 466 | 我们可以从Fitch Ratings回到杨晶那里. | |
| 467 | She has a completely different perspective on the timeline, right? | 她对时间的看法完全不同,对吧? |
| 468 | Yes. | 对 |
| 469 | She thinks the worst period of shrinking profits is actually almost over for CATL. | 她认为利润缩减最糟糕的时期实际上对于CATL来说几乎已经结束. |
| 470 | What makes her so confident about their recovery? | 是什么让她这么有信心 他们康复? |
| 471 | She looks at the product mix. | 她看的产品组合。 |
| 472 | She believes that CATL is successfully shifting its main focus. | 她认为CATL正在成功地转移其主要重点. |
| 473 | So they are moving away from those cheap, highly competitive car batteries? | 所以他们正在远离那些廉价,竞争激烈的汽车电池? |
| 474 | Right. | 对 |
| 475 | And they are aggressively moving towards much higher priced items. | 它们正在积极向价高得多的项目迈进。 |
| 476 | These new products naturally have a much higher profit margin. | 这些新产品的利润率自然要高得多。 |
| 477 | Like the giant batteries for the AI data centers. | 就像AI数据中心的巨型电池 |
| 478 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 479 | Those energy storage systems are highly complex, expensive pieces of technology. | 这些能源储存系统非常复杂、昂贵。 |
| 480 | You can charge a premium for them. | 你可以向他们收取保险费。 |
| 481 | She believes that selling these higher priced items will soon bring CATL's overall profits back out. | 她认为出售这些高价物品很快会让CATL的整体利润恢复. |
| 482 | She expects to see this financial improvement very soon. | 她期望很快看到这种财政改善。 |
| 483 | So we have a very clear divide in expert opinion. | 因此,在专家意见中,我们有一个非常明显的分歧。 |
| 484 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 485 | One expert says the new taxes will drag them down for years. | 一位专家说,新税会拖累他们好几年. |
| 486 | And the other expert says their new expensive products will lift them up almost immediately. | 而另一位专家则表示,他们新的昂贵产品几乎会立即提升. |
| 487 | CATL is truly in a difficult transition phase. | CATL确实处于一个困难的过渡阶段. |
| 488 | They have to pay these painful new taxes right now. | 他们现在必须缴纳这些痛苦的新税。 |
| 489 | And at the exact same time, they are spending billions to build entirely new businesses. | 与此同时,他们正在花费数十亿来建立全新的企业。 |
| 490 | Building swapping stations and giant AI batteries costs a fortune. | 建造交换站和巨型AI电池要花一大笔钱. |
| 491 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 492 | So I have to ask the big question. | 所以我必须问一个大问题。 |
| 493 | Will the massive gamble on AI power and quick battery swaps pay off fast enough to save them? | 在人工智能电源和快速电池交换上的大规模赌博 能否迅速得到回报来拯救它们? |
| 494 | What's fascinating here is the sheer scale and speed of the pivot. | 引人入胜的是中枢的大小和速度。 |
| 495 | If Yang Jing is correct, the high profits from energy storage will arrive just in time. | 如果杨晶正确,储能带来的高利润会及时到来. |
| 496 | But if Ethan Zhang is correct, the heavy taxes might drain their | 如果张伊森是对的 重税可能会耗尽 |
| 497 | cash before the new businesses can take off. | 现金在新企业起飞之前。 |
| 498 | It is a massive financial balancing act. | 这是一个巨大的财政平衡行动。 |
| 499 | It is a high stakes race against time. | 这是与时间的争斗。 |
| 500 | They need the new money from AI to arrive | 他们需要AI的新钱才能到 |
| 501 | before the old money from cars runs out. | 在老钱用完之前 |
| 502 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 503 | And if we connect this to the much bigger picture, we see a massive global shift. | 如果我们将它与大得多的情况联系起来, 我们就会看到一个巨大的全球转变。 |
| 504 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 505 | For the last 10 years, the energy transition was a simple story. | 在过去的十年里,能源转型是一个简单的故事. |
| 506 | It was mostly about making better electric cars. | 主要是制造更好的电动车 |
| 507 | Right. | 对 |
| 508 | Making cheaper lithium batteries for those specific vehicles. | 为这些特定车辆制造更便宜的锂电池. |
| 509 | But this report shows us that simple era is officially ending. | 但这份报告向我们表明,简单的时代正在正式结束。 |
| 510 | The future is not just about moving cars anymore. | 未来不再只是移动汽车。 |
| 511 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 512 | It is about controlling the flow of power across the entire global economy. | 它涉及控制整个全球经济中的权力流动。 |
| 513 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 514 | It is about powering personal transport, heating massive buildings, and running artificial | 它涉及为个人交通提供动力,给大型建筑加热,以及运行人工 |
| 515 | intelligence. | 情报 |
| 516 | The few companies that control that core power supply will effectively control the future | 少数控制核心电力供应的公司将有效地控制未来 |
| 517 | economy. | 经济。 |
| 518 | That is a staggering thought to end on. | 这是一种令人吃惊的想法,即将结束。 |
| 519 | The undisputed king of car batteries wants to become the master of global power. | 无可争议的汽车电池王想要成为全球电力的主宰. |
| 520 | And they are willing to risk their entire current business to achieve it. | 而他们愿意冒着整个当前业务的风险来完成它. |
| 521 | As we wrap up this deep dive, I want to leave you with a final thought. | 当我们完成这次深度潜水时 我想给你留个最后的想法 |
| 522 | Think about your own daily life. | 想想你自己的日常生活。 |
| 523 | It touches everything. | 它触及一切。 |
| 524 | Think about your electric car, your smart home, and the computers you use for work. | 想想你的电动车 你的聪明家 还有你用来工作的电脑 |
| 525 | Right. | 对 |
| 526 | If private companies start owning the physical power stations, | 如果私营公司开始拥有物理电站, |
| 527 | the batteries, and the software standards, what happens when they decide to change the rules? | 电池和软件标准, 当他们决定改变规则时会发生什么? |
| 528 | That is a great question. | 问得好 |
| 529 | Will we one day wake up and find ourselves locked into a single corporate brand just | 我们有一天会醒来 发现自己被锁在一个单一的企业品牌 |
| 530 | to keep our lights on? | 保持我们的灯光? |
| 531 | It is definitely something to think about as this technology grows. | 随着科技的发展,这绝对是值得思考的。 |
| 532 | Thank you for joining us today on the deep dive. | 感谢您今天加入我们的深潜行动 |
| 533 | We will see you next time. | 下次见 |
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