中国贸易顺差首破1万亿美元：芯片出口量降了，收入却多137%
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | So China just hit a really massive economic milestone. | 中国刚刚进入了一个巨大的经济里程碑。 |
| 0:02 | Oh, yeah, a huge one. | 哦,是的,一个巨大的。 |
| 0:04 | Yeah, their trade surplus for the first 10 months of the year, | 是的,他们的贸易顺差 在一年的头10个月, |
| 0:06 | it just crossed one trillion dollars. | 它刚刚跨过一万亿美元。 |
| 0:09 | One trillion. | 一万亿. |
| 0:10 | That is just wow. | 这真是太棒了 |
| 0:12 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:12 | But here is the real twist. | 但这是真正的曲折。 |
| 0:14 | They are actually exporting fewer computer chips than before. | 他们实际上出口的电脑芯片比以前少。 |
| 0:18 | Right. | 对 |
展开字幕全文（519 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | So China just hit a really massive economic milestone. | 中国刚刚进入了一个巨大的经济里程碑。 |
| 2 | Oh, yeah, a huge one. | 哦,是的,一个巨大的。 |
| 3 | Yeah, their trade surplus for the first 10 months of the year, | 是的,他们的贸易顺差 在一年的头10个月, |
| 4 | it just crossed one trillion dollars. | 它刚刚跨过一万亿美元。 |
| 5 | One trillion. | 一万亿. |
| 6 | That is just wow. | 这真是太棒了 |
| 7 | Right. | 对 |
| 8 | But here is the real twist. | 但这是真正的曲折。 |
| 9 | They are actually exporting fewer computer chips than before. | 他们实际上出口的电脑芯片比以前少。 |
| 10 | Right. | 对 |
| 11 | So how did they make, you know, 137 percent more money doing it? | 他们是怎么赚到137%的钱的? |
| 12 | Welcome to the deep dive. | 欢迎来到深潜 |
| 13 | We are really thrilled you are joining us today. | 我们很高兴你今天能来 |
| 14 | Yeah, it is great to be here. | 是啊,这是伟大的在这里。 |
| 15 | This data, I mean, it completely changes how we look at global trade right now. | 这个数据,我的意思是, 它完全改变了我们看待全球贸易的方式。 |
| 16 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 17 | So our mission today is clear. | 因此,我们今天的使命是明确的。 |
| 18 | We want to explore this massive economic milestone, you know, this one | 我们想探索这个巨大的经济里程碑 这个 |
| 19 | trillion dollar number. | 万亿数. |
| 20 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 21 | And we will look at what these numbers really mean for you and the global economy. | 我们将研究这些数字对你和全球经济的真正意义。 |
| 22 | Our source today is a fresh report from the South China Morning Post. | 我们今天的来源是"南华早报"的新报道. |
| 23 | And the date is today, November 11, 2026. | 而日期为今天,2026年11月11日. |
| 24 | Yeah, the numbers in this report are well, they are truly huge. | 是的,这个报告的数字是很好的, 它们真的是巨大的。 |
| 25 | They tell a very surprising story about global supply chains. | 他们讲述了一个关于全球供应链的令人惊讶的故事。 |
| 26 | They really do. | 他们真的有。 |
| 27 | But before we jump into the deep end, let's just define a key term. | 但是在我们跳进深渊之前,让我们只是定义一个关键术语. |
| 28 | The report focuses a lot on a trade surplus. | 报告着重谈到贸易顺差。 |
| 29 | Can you can you explain that simply for us? | 你能解释一下吗? |
| 30 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 31 | So a trade surplus happens when a country sells more things | 所以,贸易顺差发生 当一个国家出售更多的东西 |
| 32 | to other countries than it buys. | 给其他国家,而不是它买。 |
| 33 | OK. Yeah, they export more goods than they import. | 摆 是的,他们出口的商品比进口的多。 |
| 34 | And because they sell more, extra money stays inside the country. | 因为他们卖的更多,额外的钱留在国内。 |
| 35 | Right. | 对 |
| 36 | It is basically a sign of a very strong | 这基本上是一个非常强烈的迹象 |
| 37 | export economy. | 出口经济。 |
| 38 | OK, let's unpack this. | 好吧,让我们打包这个。 |
| 39 | Let's start with the export numbers. | 从出口号码开始 |
| 40 | OK, the report says China's exports grew by thirty five point two percent | 报告说中国出口增长了35.0% |
| 41 | in October, and this growth is compared to October of last year. | 这一增长与去年10月相比。 |
| 42 | Yes. | 对 |
| 43 | And the total value, it reached over four hundred | 总价值超过四百 |
| 44 | twelve billion dollars in just a single month. | 仅一个月就有120亿美元 |
| 45 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 46 | Yeah, this actually beat the expectations of most economists. | 是的,这实际上超过了大多数经济学家的期望。 |
| 47 | I mean, they thought the growth would be much, much lower. | 我的意思是,他们认为 增长会低得多。 |
| 48 | Well, I have to push back a bit here. | 我得往后推一点 |
| 49 | OK. | 摆 |
| 50 | How is that export growth so high? | 出口增长怎么这么高? |
| 51 | Like are Chinese factories simply making more boxes of the usual items | 像是中国工厂 制造更多的旧货 |
| 52 | or are they making completely different, you know, more expensive items? | 还是他们做完全不同的东西, 你知道,更昂贵的东西? |
| 53 | What's fascinating here is, well, we can find the exact answer right in the source data. | 有趣的是,我们可以从源数据中找到准确的答案。 |
| 54 | Oh, really? | 是吗? |
| 55 | Yeah, they are absolutely making more expensive items. | 是的,他们正在做更昂贵的物品。 |
| 56 | And we can see this clearly with one specific product. | 我们用一种特定的产品可以清楚地看到这一点。 |
| 57 | Let's look at integrated circuits. | 让我们看看集成电路。 |
| 58 | OK, and we can just call those computer chips, right? | 好吧,我们可以叫那些电脑芯片,对不对? |
| 59 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 60 | Like they are the brains inside our phones and computers. | 就像我们手机和电脑里的大脑一样 |
| 61 | Yes, computer chips. | 是的,电脑芯片。 |
| 62 | The report reveals a very strange contradiction here. | 报告揭示了一个非常奇怪的矛盾。 |
| 63 | OK, the actual physical number of chips exported. | 好,实际出口芯片的数量。 |
| 64 | It actually went down. | 它实际上下来了。 |
| 65 | Wait, really? | 等等,真的吗? |
| 66 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 67 | The total volume dropped by two point four percent. | 总量下降了2点4%。 |
| 68 | That is surprising. | 这是令人惊讶的。 |
| 69 | So they actually sold fewer chips. | 所以他们实际上卖的芯片更少。 |
| 70 | Yes, they shipped fewer boxes. | 是的,他们运送的箱子更少。 |
| 71 | But and this is the crazy part. | 但这是疯狂的部分。 |
| 72 | The money they made from those chips jumped up by one hundred thirty seven point one percent. | 他们从这些芯片上赚的钱 涨了一百三十七个百分点 |
| 73 | What? | 你说什么? |
| 74 | That is a massive difference. | 这是一个巨大的差异。 |
| 75 | It is. | 没错 |
| 76 | Why did the value jump so much? | 为什么值跳得这么高? |
| 77 | Because normally, you know, if you sell fewer items, you make less money. | 因为通常,你知道, 如果你卖的更少, 你赚的更少。 |
| 78 | Usually. | 通常情况下 |
| 79 | Yeah, that is true. | 是的,这是真的。 |
| 80 | But we are in a very unique moment right now. | 但我们正处于一个非常独特的时刻。 |
| 81 | OK, this is entirely because of the global artificial intelligence boom. | 这完全是因为全球人工智能的繁荣。 |
| 82 | Right. | 对 |
| 83 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 84 | Yeah, the AI boom is changing everything. | 是啊,AI的热潮正在改变一切。 |
| 85 | Right now, every major tech company in the world is rushing to build AI systems. | 现在,世界上每个大科技公司 都急于建立AI系统。 |
| 86 | And these AI systems, I mean, they require a massive amount of computing power. | 这些人工智能系统需要大量的计算能力。 |
| 87 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 88 | To run these really complex programs, you need massive data centers. | 要运行这些非常复杂的程序, 你需要巨大的数据中心。 |
| 89 | Right. | 对 |
| 90 | And these computers need a specific type of part. | 这些计算机需要特定的部件。 |
| 91 | They need high end memory chips. | 他们需要高端记忆芯片。 |
| 92 | And I assume there aren't enough of these chips to go around. | 我想这些芯片还不足以绕过去 |
| 93 | No, not at all. | 不,一点也不。 |
| 94 | There is a severe global shortage. | 全球严重短缺。 |
| 95 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 96 | Yeah, you cannot just build a new chip factory overnight. | 是啊,你不能只是 建设一个新的芯片工厂一夜之间。 |
| 97 | It takes years. | 它需要数年。 |
| 98 | Right. | 对 |
| 99 | It's very complex. | 这是非常复杂的。 |
| 100 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 101 | So the global supply is very tight, but the demand is incredibly high. | 因此,全球供应非常紧张,但需求却非常高。 |
| 102 | So prices naturally just go through the roof. | 所以价格自然会翻天覆地 |
| 103 | Yes. | 对 |
| 104 | And China is very well positioned here. | 而中国在这里的位置也非常有利. |
| 105 | They are making a lot of money building the physical parts for this technology. | 他们正在赚很多钱 建造这个技术的物理部件。 |
| 106 | OK, we call this the AI infrastructure. | 好吧,我们称之为人工智能基础设施。 |
| 107 | They are capturing the high premium prices. | 他们正在捕捉高昂的溢价。 |
| 108 | OK, that makes perfect sense. | 好吧,这是完全合理的。 |
| 109 | It's it's like a car company. | 如车公司. |
| 110 | OK, they might sell fewer cars overall, but they stop selling cheap sedans. | 好吧,他们可能卖的汽车总体较少, 但他们停止销售廉价轿车。 |
| 111 | And, you know, they only sell high end sports cars now. | 他们现在只卖高端运动车 |
| 112 | Right. | 对 |
| 113 | So they make way more money on fewer sales. | 所以他们用更少的销量赚更多的钱 |
| 114 | That's a great analogy. | 妙类比. |
| 115 | Yeah, they are riding a massive wave of high tech demand. | 是啊,他们正在骑着一波 高科技需求。 |
| 116 | They are selling highly valuable goods. | 他们正在卖贵重货物。 |
| 117 | The report also mentions rare earth minerals. | 报告还提到稀土矿物。 |
| 118 | Yes. | 对 |
| 119 | These are those special metals needed for modern electronics. | 这些是现代电子产品所需的特殊金属。 |
| 120 | What is happening there? | 发生什么事了? |
| 121 | Well, the story is kind of similar, but for a totally different reason. | 故事有点相似 但原因完全不同 |
| 122 | Oh, so China's rare earth exports, they only rose by one percent in volume. | 中国的稀土出口量只增长了1% |
| 123 | Huh. | 瓳 |
| 124 | Why is the volume so low for such an important material? | 为什么这么重要的材料的体积这么低? |
| 125 | Well, it is intentional. | 这是故意的 |
| 126 | The Chinese government is keeping very tight control over these minerals. | 中国政府对这些矿物的管制非常严格. |
| 127 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 128 | Yeah, they restrict the supply. | 是啊,他们限制供应。 |
| 129 | They want to carefully control who gets these crucial materials on the global market. | 他们想仔细控制谁在全球市场上得到这些关键材料。 |
| 130 | OK, so trade goes both ways. | 好吧,所以贸易是双向的。 |
| 131 | We talked about all this cash coming in from exports. | 我们谈过这些出口现金 |
| 132 | Right. | 对 |
| 133 | And you might think this creates a huge local shopping spree, right? | 你可能会认为这创造了一个巨大的 当地购物盛宴,对不对? |
| 134 | You would think so. | 你会这么想的 |
| 135 | But the import data tells a completely different story. | 但导入数据却讲述了一个完全不同的故事. |
| 136 | Yes, it really does. | 是的,确实如此。 |
| 137 | And that brings us to the second big surprise in the data. | 这给我们带来了数据中的第二个大惊喜。 |
| 138 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 139 | The source shares a really surprising fact here. | 消息来源在此分享了一个非常令人惊讶的事实。 |
| 140 | Imports actually grew faster than exports in October. | 10月,进口实际增长快于出口。 |
| 141 | Right. | 对 |
| 142 | Imports rose 41.6 percent. | 进口增长41.6%。 |
| 143 | They reached over three hundred seven billion dollars. | 它们达到了三百七十亿美元。 |
| 144 | Yeah, that was the fastest import growth since May 2021. | 是的,这是2021年5月以来最快的进口增长。 |
| 145 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 146 | And because they bought so much from the world, | 因为他们从世界买了很多东西 |
| 147 | their monthly trade surplus actually shrank a little bit. | 他们的月度贸易顺差实际上减少了一点。 |
| 148 | Oh, really? | 是吗? |
| 149 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 150 | It dropped from about one hundred and thirty three billion dollars | 从一千三百三十亿美元跌下来 |
| 151 | in September down to one hundred and five billion in October. | 9月下至10月一百五十亿. |
| 152 | OK, wait a minute. | 好吧,等待一分钟。 |
| 153 | I'm a bit confused here. | 我有点困惑 |
| 154 | OK. | 摆 |
| 155 | I thought domestic consumption, you know, local shopping. | 我想家庭消费,你知道, 当地购物。 |
| 156 | I thought that was weak in China. | 我以为中国很弱 |
| 157 | Doesn't that mean regular people aren't buying many things? | 这不意味着普通人不会买很多东西吗? |
| 158 | You are totally right. | 你说得对 |
| 159 | Domestic demand is still very weak. | 国内需求仍然非常薄弱。 |
| 160 | OK. | 摆 |
| 161 | Regular shoppers are not spending much money at all right now. | 普通店主现在没花多少钱 |
| 162 | The property market is slow and consumer confidence is quite low. | 物业市场缓慢,消费者信心相当低. |
| 163 | Then who is buying all these imported goods? | 那是谁买的这些进口商品? |
| 164 | Right. | 对 |
| 165 | Like if local people aren't shopping at the mall, where is all this stuff going? | 如果当地人不在商场购物,这些东西都去哪了? |
| 166 | That is the crucial question. | 这是关键问题。 |
| 167 | And the report includes an insight from Gary. | 报告包含了加里的见解. |
| 168 | OK. | 摆 |
| 169 | He is a senior economist. | 他是资深经济学家。 |
| 170 | He explains that this high import growth is mostly an illusion. | 他解释说,这种高进口增长主要是幻觉. |
| 171 | An illusion. | 一个幻觉。 |
| 172 | How does a three hundred seven billion dollar number | 三百七十亿如何? |
| 173 | become a simple trick of the numbers? | 成为数字的简单伎俩? |
| 174 | Well, there are two main drivers behind this huge number. | 嗯,有两个主要的驱动 背后这个巨大的数字。 |
| 175 | OK, what is the first one? | 好吧,什么是第一个? |
| 176 | First, the global prices for energy and raw materials | 第一,全球能源和原材料价格 |
| 177 | are just much higher right now. | 现在高得多了 |
| 178 | Oh, so they are just paying more money | 哦,所以他们只是支付更多的钱 |
| 179 | for the exact same amount of raw materials. | 同样的原材料。 |
| 180 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 181 | And they need massive amounts of energy to run their big factories. | 他们需要大量的能量来经营他们的大工厂。 |
| 182 | Right. | 对 |
| 183 | For example, the total value of natural gas imports, it went up 50.2 percent. | 例如,天然气进口总值增长了50.2%。 |
| 184 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 185 | And coal imports went up 60 percent. | 煤炭进口增长了60%。 |
| 186 | So they just need all that power to keep the export engine running. | 因此,他们只需要所有的动力来维持输出引擎的运行. |
| 187 | Yes. | 对 |
| 188 | And we see it with metals, too. | 我们也用金属看到它。 |
| 189 | Copper ore imports went up twenty three point one percent. | 铜矿石进口额增长了23.1%。 |
| 190 | OK. And they use copper to make wires for all these new electronics. | 摆 他们用铜为所有这些新的电子产品制造电线。 |
| 191 | That totally makes sense. | 这完全合理。 |
| 192 | So what is the second driver of this import illusion? | 那么这个进口假象的第二个驱动力是什么? |
| 193 | It is the electronics themselves. | 这是电子本身。 |
| 194 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 195 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 196 | China is buying huge amounts of specific electronic parts. | 中国正在购买大量特定电子零件。 |
| 197 | Imports of data processing equipment went up by an incredible two hundred | 数据处理设备的进口增加了惊人的200个 |
| 198 | and sixty one percent. | 还有百分之六十一 |
| 199 | Wait. | 单单 |
| 200 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 201 | Two hundred sixty one percent jump in one month. | 一个月内跳跃261%. |
| 202 | Yes. | 对 |
| 203 | That is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 204 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 205 | Also, imports of standard computer chips went up seventy eight point | 另外,标准计算机芯片的进口也增加了78点 |
| 206 | three percent in value. | 价值为3%。 |
| 207 | OK. | 摆 |
| 208 | And here's the secret behind the whole illusion. | 这是整个幻觉背后的秘密 |
| 209 | China is importing these raw parts for a very specific reason. | 中国进口这些原材料是出于非常具体的原因。 |
| 210 | I think I see where this is going. | 我想我知道这是向甚么方向发展了 |
| 211 | Yeah, they bring the raw parts in. | 是啊,他们带来了 原始部件英寸 |
| 212 | They use them to build the high tech AI goods in their factories. | 他们利用这些设备在工厂制造高科技的AI产品. |
| 213 | Right. | 对 |
| 214 | And then they export those finished goods right back out to the rest of the world. | 然后他们把这些成品出口到世界其他地方。 |
| 215 | Ah, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 216 | It's like it's like a restaurant buying way more expensive ingredients this month. | 这就像一个餐馆 购买更贵的原料本月。 |
| 217 | You might look at the grocery bill and think, wow, | 你可以看看杂货店的账单 然后想,哇, |
| 218 | they're hosting a massive local party. | 他们正在主办一个大规模的当地聚会。 |
| 219 | Right. | 对 |
| 220 | But in reality, they aren't cooking for the local neighborhood at all. | 但实际上,他们根本不是为当地的邻居做饭. |
| 221 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 222 | They're just using those premium ingredients to cater | 他们只是用这些高价的原料来满足 |
| 223 | a very expensive event out of town. | 一个非常昂贵的事件 出城。 |
| 224 | Yes. | 对 |
| 225 | So they import parts just to feed their own export factories. | 所以他们进口零件只是为了养活自己的出口工厂. |
| 226 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 227 | They aren't importing things for regular people to buy in a local store. | 他们不会进口东西给普通人 在当地商店买 |
| 228 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 229 | And even with basic resources like oil, | 即使有了石油等基本资源 |
| 230 | the trend is really clear. | 趋势非常明显。 |
| 231 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 232 | The actual volume of crude oil imports dropped by 13.3 percent. | 原油的实际进口量下降了13.3%。 |
| 233 | OK. | 摆 |
| 234 | But the total value they paid for it went up by 41 percent. | 但他们为此付出的总价值上升了41%。 |
| 235 | They are paying much more money for less oil. | 他们付的钱要多得多, |
| 236 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 237 | So the high prices make the total import bill look huge. | 因此,高价使得总进口账单显得巨大. |
| 238 | Right. | 对 |
| 239 | But it certainly isn't a sign of a healthy, you know, spending local population. | 但它肯定不是一个健康的迹象,你知道, 花费当地人口。 |
| 240 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 241 | The local economy is still struggling. | 当地经济仍在挣扎. |
| 242 | The import numbers just reflect the high cost of doing global business right now. | 进口数字只是反映了目前全球商业的高成本。 |
| 243 | Let's transition to the global stage for a second. | 让我们向全球舞台过渡一下 |
| 244 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 245 | So China is buying materials and building AI products for the world. | 因此,中国正在为世界购买材料和制造AI产品. |
| 246 | So who exactly is buying all these finished products? | 那么到底是谁买的这些成品? |
| 247 | Well, the report gives us a very clear breakdown of the regions. | 报告非常明确地分解了各地区。 |
| 248 | Let's look at those numbers. | 让我们看看这些数字。 |
| 249 | Exports to Southeast Asian nations went up 46.3 percent. | 对东南亚国家的出口增长了46.3%。 |
| 250 | Right. | 对 |
| 251 | And that group is known as ASEAN. | 这个团体被称为东盟。 |
| 252 | Yes. | 对 |
| 253 | That group of nations is currently China's largest trading partner. | 该国家集团目前是中国最大的贸易伙伴。 |
| 254 | The growth there is just massive. | 那里的增长只是巨大的。 |
| 255 | And exports to the U.S. also rose by 32.9 percent. | 对美国的出口也增长了32.9%。 |
| 256 | Plus exports to the EU increased by 24.4 percent. | 此外,对欧盟的出口增加了24.4%。 |
| 257 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 258 | So the demand is clearly very strong across the entire globe. | 因此,全球的需求显然非常强劲。 |
| 259 | I mean, every major region is buying. | 我是说,每个大区都在买东西 |
| 260 | Right. | 对 |
| 261 | Now, looking at the recent meeting in Washington | 现在,看看最近华盛顿的会议 |
| 262 | between President Xi and President Trump. | 习近平主席与特朗普总统之间. |
| 263 | OK. | 摆 |
| 264 | And just to be clear, our goal here isn't to get into the politics at all. | 坦白说,我们的目标不是参政 |
| 265 | We just want to look purely at the economic ripple effects of their agreement. | 我们只想看看他们协议的经济波及效应。 |
| 266 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 267 | So the source notes they agreed to cut tariffs. | 因此消息来源指出他们同意削减关税. |
| 268 | Right. | 对 |
| 269 | And just to define that simply, a tariff is simply a border tax. | 简单地说,关税只是边境税。 |
| 270 | OK. | 摆 |
| 271 | It's an extra cost. | 这是额外的成本。 |
| 272 | A company pays to bring goods into a foreign country. | 公司花钱将货物带入外国。 |
| 273 | Right. | 对 |
| 274 | So they agreed to cut these tariffs on about 30 billion dollars | 所以他们同意以300亿美元削减关税 |
| 275 | worth of goods from each country. | 每个国家的货物价值。 |
| 276 | Yes. | 对 |
| 277 | The report says these goods will return to, quote, most favored nation rates. | 报告说,这些商品将回到最优惠的国家税率。 |
| 278 | Right. | 对 |
| 279 | Let's break that term down. | 让我们打破这个词。 |
| 280 | It sounds very technical. | 听起来很技术 |
| 281 | It does sound formal. | 听起来很正式 |
| 282 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 283 | But most favored nation rates simply means the standard baseline trade taxes. | 但最优惠的国家税率仅仅意味着标准基线贸易税。 |
| 284 | Oh, OK. | 哦,没事。 |
| 285 | It's just the normal rate countries charge their regular trading partners. | 这只是正常的利率国家向其正常的贸易伙伴收取费用. |
| 286 | So it basically means removing the extra penalty taxes. | 所以基本上意味着取消额外的罚税. |
| 287 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 288 | They are going back to normal business rules for these specific goods. | 他们将回到这些特定货物的正常业务规则。 |
| 289 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 290 | Now, the source clearly notes that this deal is not actually active yet. | 现在,来文方明确指出,这项交易实际上尚未生效。 |
| 291 | Oh, it isn't. | 哦,这不是。 |
| 292 | No, it has not been put into action. | 不,它还没有付诸行动。 |
| 293 | It is just an agreement on paper for now. | 这只是目前纸上达成的协议。 |
| 294 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 295 | So if we connect this to the bigger picture, | 所以如果我们把这件事和大局联系起来 |
| 296 | we can see some real future risks on the horizon. | 我们可以看到一些真正的未来风险。 |
| 297 | Yes, definitely. | 是的,当然。 |
| 298 | Everything sounds very positive and profitable right now, | 一切听起来都非常积极和有利可图 |
| 299 | but we have to look ahead. | 但是我们必须向前看。 |
| 300 | Right. | 对 |
| 301 | Another economist in the report, Zong Jiwei, points out a crucial detail. | 报告中另一位经济学家宗继伟指出一个关键的细节. |
| 302 | What's that? | 这是什么? |
| 303 | Right now, the huge demand for AI in the US is a major support | 现在,美国对AI的巨大需求 是一个重要的支持 |
| 304 | for China's exports. | 中国的出口。 |
| 305 | Because the US is buying a massive amount of tech. | 因为美国正在购买大量技术。 |
| 306 | Right. | 对 |
| 307 | So what is the risk, then? | 那么风险是什么? |
| 308 | The risk comes from political problems between different countries. | 风险来自不同国家之间的政治问题。 |
| 309 | These issues can change global trade rules very quickly. | 这些问题能够迅速改变全球贸易规则。 |
| 310 | Can you share an example from the source? | 你能分享一个来源的例子吗? |
| 311 | Yes. | 对 |
| 312 | For example, the EU is currently placing limits on electric | 例如,欧盟目前正在限制电力供应。 |
| 313 | vehicles imported from China. | 从中国进口的车辆。 |
| 314 | OK. | 摆 |
| 315 | And they call these limits quotas. | 他们称之为这些限制配额。 |
| 316 | Let's define a quota quickly. | 我们快点确定配额 |
| 317 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 318 | It means a country will only allow a very specific number of cars to enter. | 这意味着一个国家只允许非常具体数量的汽车进入. |
| 319 | Right. | 对 |
| 320 | Yes. | 对 |
| 321 | A quota is a strict numerical limit. | 配额是一个严格的数字限制。 |
| 322 | OK. Once you hit that number, you cannot sell any more cars in that region. | 摆 一旦你打中了那个号码,你就不能再在该地区卖车了。 |
| 323 | Period. | 期间。 |
| 324 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 325 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 326 | No matter how much people want to buy them. | 不管人们想买多少 |
| 327 | That's a huge roadblock. | 这是一个巨大的路障。 |
| 328 | You can have the best product in the world. | 你可以有世界上最好的产品。 |
| 329 | Right. | 对 |
| 330 | But if a government sets a quota, your sales just hit a brick wall. | 但如果政府定了配额 你的销售额就跌到了砖墙上 |
| 331 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 332 | These quotas and political tensions, | 这些配额和政治紧张局势, |
| 333 | they could seriously slow down trade next year. | 他们明年会严重减速贸易 |
| 334 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 335 | Economist Gary Ngo also warns about another risk. | 经济学家加里 Ngo还警告说,还有另一种危险。 |
| 336 | He notes a possible slowdown in global AI investment. | 他指出全球AI投资可能放缓。 |
| 337 | So the AI boom is carrying the economy now. | 所以AI的繁荣 带来了现在的经济。 |
| 338 | But these limits are a real headwind. | 但是,这些限制是一个真正的头风。 |
| 339 | Yes. | 对 |
| 340 | They can easily push back against the growth in the near future. | 它们很容易在不远的将来将增长推向后退。 |
| 341 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 342 | Zhang Jihui mentions that the macro policy in China | 张继辉提到中国的宏观政策 |
| 343 | probably won't change much for the rest of this year. | 今年剩下的时间可能不会有什么变化 |
| 344 | Because the current strategy is working. | 因为目前的战略是有效的。 |
| 345 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 346 | But next year could bring a completely different landscape. | 但明年可能会带来完全不同的景观. |
| 347 | Well, all this massive trade success brings up another big issue. | 那么,所有这些巨大的贸易成功 带来了另一个大问题。 |
| 348 | OK. | 摆 |
| 349 | Since China is selling so much to the world, | 既然中国向全世界卖这么多东西 |
| 350 | a massive amount of foreign cash is flowing into the country. | 大量外国现金流入该国。 |
| 351 | Right. | 对 |
| 352 | So how does this affect their own money? | 那么,这如何影响他们自己的钱? |
| 353 | You know, the yuan. | 你知道,人民币。 |
| 354 | Here's where it gets really interesting. | 这是真正有趣的。 |
| 355 | It does get interesting here. | 这里确实很有趣 |
| 356 | China's central bank, the PBOC, | 中国中央银行 人民银行 |
| 357 | they just announced a brand new rule last week. | 他们上周刚刚宣布了一条全新的规则。 |
| 358 | Yes. | 对 |
| 359 | They increased something called the foreign exchange | 他们增加了外汇 |
| 360 | reserve requirement ratio. | 准备金需求比率。 |
| 361 | Right. | 对 |
| 362 | They raised it by two percentage points. | 他们提高了两个百分点。 |
| 363 | It is now sitting at six percent. | 它现在占6%。 |
| 364 | Yeah, that is a very long, very technical name for a rule. | 是啊,这是一个非常长,非常技术的名字 一个规则。 |
| 365 | It really is a mouthful. | 这真的是一个嘴。 |
| 366 | Let's break that down into plain English. | 让我们把这细分为简单的英语。 |
| 367 | OK. | 摆 |
| 368 | What is the central bank actually doing here? | 中央银行在这里做什么? |
| 369 | Well, the concept is actually quite simple once we look at the mechanics. | 我们一看力学,这个概念其实很简单。 |
| 370 | OK, let's hear it. | 好吧,让我们听听。 |
| 371 | Because China is selling so much overseas, | 因为中国在海外卖很多东西 |
| 372 | foreign money is pouring into the country. | 外国钱财纷纷涌入国内. |
| 373 | Right. | 对 |
| 374 | And most often they are paid in US dollars. | 通常以美元支付。 |
| 375 | Right. | 对 |
| 376 | But a factory in China cannot pay its local workers in US dollars. | 但中国一家工厂无法用美元支付当地工人的工资. |
| 377 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 378 | The factory owners have to take those dollars to their local bank. | 工厂老板必须把这些钱带到当地银行. |
| 379 | OK. | 摆 |
| 380 | And they trade the dollars for local Chinese yuan. | 他们用美元换取当地人民币 |
| 381 | So everyone is trying to buy yuan at the exact same time. | 所以大家都想同时买人民币 |
| 382 | Yes. | 对 |
| 383 | And when demand for the yuan goes up, the value of the yuan goes up. | 而当人民币需求上升时,人民币的价值就会上升. |
| 384 | OK. | 摆 |
| 385 | The currency gets stronger very fast. | 货币变得很快。 |
| 386 | It gained a lot of value in October. | 10月获得了很大的价值. |
| 387 | OK, wait. | 好吧,等待。 等待时间。 |
| 388 | I'm a bit stuck here. | 我有点困在这里。 |
| 389 | OK. | 摆 |
| 390 | Why is a strong currency a bad thing for them? | 为什么强势货币对他们不利? |
| 391 | Like, it sounds like a great thing. | 听起来很棒 |
| 392 | Your money is worth more. | 你的钱更值钱 |
| 393 | It is a great thing if you want to buy imported goods. | 如果你想购买进口货物,这是一件大事。 |
| 394 | You can buy more stuff from other countries. | 你可以从其他国家购买更多的东西。 |
| 395 | Right. | 对 |
| 396 | But remember the core rule of global trade. | 但记住全球贸易的核心规则。 |
| 397 | If your currency gets too strong, your exported goods | 如果你的货币太坚固,你的出口商品 |
| 398 | become too expensive for other countries to buy. | 变得太昂贵,其他国家无法购买。 |
| 399 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 400 | Let's think about this from the buyer's perspective. | 我们从买家的角度考虑一下 |
| 401 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 402 | Let's say a Chinese tech gadget costs 70 yuan at the factory. | 假设一个中国科技装备在工厂花费70元人民币. |
| 403 | OK. | 摆 |
| 404 | If the exchange rate is 71 for every US dollar, | 如果每美元汇率为71, |
| 405 | an American buyer pays $10 for the gadget. | 美国买家付了10美元 |
| 406 | OK, $10. | 好吧,10块。 |
| 407 | That makes perfect sense. | 这很合理 |
| 408 | Now, imagine the Chinese yuan gets much stronger. | 现在,想象一下中国人民币变强了 |
| 409 | The exchange rate drops. | 汇率下降。 |
| 410 | OK. | 摆 |
| 411 | Now, one US dollar only equals five yuan. | 现在,1美元只等于5元人民币. |
| 412 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 413 | So to buy that exact same 70 yuan gadget, | 所以为了买同样的70元人民币 |
| 414 | the American buyer now has to pay $14. | 美国买家现在得付14美元 |
| 415 | Yes. | 对 |
| 416 | The gadget itself didn't change at all. | 装置本身没有改变。 |
| 417 | Right. | 对 |
| 418 | The factory didn't raise their prices. | 工厂没有提高价格. |
| 419 | But for the global buyer, the price just jumped up by 40 percent. | 但对于全球买家来说,价格刚刚上涨了40%。 |
| 420 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 421 | This happens simply because the currency value shifted. | 这仅仅是因为货币价值发生了变动。 |
| 422 | And if the price jumps up that much, the global buyers will just stop buying. | 如果价格猛涨,全球买家就会停止购买。 |
| 423 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 424 | They will start looking for cheaper options in other countries. | 他们将在其他国家寻找更便宜的选择。 |
| 425 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 426 | If the IEI chips and electric cars become too expensive, | 如果IEI芯片和电动车变得太贵 |
| 427 | China loses its competitive edge. | 中国失去竞争优势. |
| 428 | And they really need the world to keep buying right now. | 他们真的需要世界 继续购买现在。 |
| 429 | Yes, they do. | 是的,他们这样做。 |
| 430 | The report notes that the currency jump was putting severe pressure | 报告提到,货币的跳跃造成了严重的压力 |
| 431 | on Chinese exporters, OK, because right now | 对中国出口商,OK,因为现在 |
| 432 | the exporters are the main engine driving the entire economy. | 出口商是推动整个经济的主要动力。 |
| 433 | The local shoppers are not helping. | 当地店员帮不上忙 |
| 434 | So the central bank had to step in. | 于是中央银行不得不介入. |
| 435 | Yes. | 对 |
| 436 | They made this new rule to force local banks to hold on to more foreign money. | 他们制定了这个新规则,迫使当地银行持有更多的外国资金. |
| 437 | Yes. | 对 |
| 438 | By locking up the foreign money in a vault, | 把外国的钱锁在保险库里 |
| 439 | they take it out of the active market. | 他们把它从活跃的市场。 |
| 440 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 441 | This restricts the supply. | 这限制了供应。 |
| 442 | It cools the currency down. | 使货币降温. |
| 443 | It stops the Chinese yuan from gaining too much value. | 它阻止了中国人民币获得太多的价值. |
| 444 | So they are carefully managing their money. | 因此,他们正在认真管理他们的钱。 |
| 445 | Very carefully. | 非常仔细。 |
| 446 | They need to keep Chinese products cheap and easy to buy for the rest of the world. | 他们需要让中国产品价格低廉,便于世界其他国家购买. |
| 447 | It is a very delicate balancing act. | 这是一个非常微妙的平衡行动。 |
| 448 | They are protecting their biggest economic success story this year. | 他们今年正在保护他们最大的经济成功故事。 |
| 449 | Right. | 对 |
| 450 | They just have to keep the export machine running smoothly. | 他们只需要让出口机器顺利运转 |
| 451 | It really is a massive machine. | 这真的是一个巨大的机器。 |
| 452 | I mean, there are so many moving parts and everything affects everything else. | 我的意思是,有这么多的移动部位 和一切影响的一切。 |
| 453 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 454 | So what does this all mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 455 | Let's quickly summarize our journey today. | 让我们快速总结我们今天的旅程。 |
| 456 | It sounds like a good idea. | 听起来是个好主意 |
| 457 | So China just crossed one trillion dollars in their trade surplus. | 所以中国刚刚突破了1万亿美元的贸易顺差。 |
| 458 | Right. | 对 |
| 459 | But this massive milestone, it did not happen because local people were shopping. | 但这个巨大的里程碑并没有发生,因为当地人正在购物. |
| 460 | No, it didn't. | 不,没有。 |
| 461 | It happened because they are capturing the high premium prices of the global A.I. | 它之所以发生,是因为它们正在捕捉全球人工智能的高溢价。 |
| 462 | boom. | 轰 |
| 463 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 464 | They are selling highly valuable memory chips and tech infrastructure to the | 他们正在出售极有价值的 记忆芯片和技术基础设施 |
| 465 | entire world. | 整个世界 |
| 466 | That is the core takeaway here. | 这是这里的核心外卖。 |
| 467 | The value is way up even when the physical volume is down. | 即使物理体积下降,数值也会上升。 |
| 468 | Right. | 对 |
| 469 | And at the same time, | 同时, |
| 470 | their massive import numbers look like a local spending spree. | 它们的大量进口数量 看起来像是当地支出的激增。 |
| 471 | But it isn't. | 但事实并非如此。 |
| 472 | Right. | 对 |
| 473 | It is mostly an illusion. | 这主要是一种幻觉。 |
| 474 | It is caused by high energy prices. | 它是由高能源价格造成的。 |
| 475 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 476 | And they are also just buying raw parts to feed their own export factories. | 他们也只是购买原料来养活自己的出口工厂。 |
| 477 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 478 | Finally, their central bank is carefully managing the currency. | 最后,他们的中央银行正在认真管理该货币。 |
| 479 | They want to keep their money cheap so the export boom keeps going strong. | 他们想让自己的钱便宜些,所以出口繁荣不断。 |
| 480 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 481 | And, you know, you should really care about this data. | 而且,你知道,你应该真正 关心这个数据。 |
| 482 | It affects you directly. | 它直接影响你。 |
| 483 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 484 | Well, this report shows us something vital about our modern world. | 这个报告向我们展示了我们现代世界的重要内容。 |
| 485 | What is that? | 这是什么? |
| 486 | It shows exactly how dependent the entire global economy is on the | 它确切地显示了整个全球经济如何依赖 |
| 487 | current A.I. | 目前为A.I. |
| 488 | boom. | 轰 |
| 489 | Right. | 对 |
| 490 | It also highlights how deeply connected our global supply chains really are. | 它还突出了我们全球供应链的真正联系。 |
| 491 | Yeah, that's very true. | 没错 |
| 492 | The smartphone in your pocket relies on this exact, delicate trade system. | 你口袋里的智能手机 依赖于这个精确,微妙的贸易系统。 |
| 493 | The raw materials, the chips, the final assembly. | 原料,芯片,最终组装. |
| 494 | It is all one big connected circle. | 这一切都是一个大 连接圈。 |
| 495 | Everything is deeply connected. | 一切众生深相. |
| 496 | If one piece changes, the whole system shifts. | 如果一个片段改变,整个系统会转移. |
| 497 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 498 | And this raises an important question to think about. | 这提出了一个值得思考的重要问题。 |
| 499 | What's the question? | 问甚么. |
| 500 | If China's massive import numbers are mostly just feeding their export machine, | 如果中国的大量进口 大多只是喂他们的出口机器 |
| 501 | 当A. I. | |
| 502 | infrastructure buildout eventually | 基础设施最终建成 |
| 503 | slows down? | 减速? |
| 504 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 505 | What happens when the world finally has enough memory chips? | 当世界终于有足够的记忆芯片时会发生什么? |
| 506 | That is a fascinating thought to leap with. | 这是一个令人着迷的想法 跳跃。 |
| 507 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 508 | If the A.I. | 如是众生. |
| 509 | boom slows down, the entire map of global trade might shift | 繁荣放缓,整个全球贸易图可能发生变化 |
| 510 | once again. | 再来一次 |
| 511 | You definitely could. | 你当然可以。 |
| 512 | The ripple effects will be massive. | 连锁反应会很大 |
| 513 | We will all need to watch the data closely next year. | 我们明年都需要密切注视数据。 |
| 514 | We certainly will. | 我们会的 |
| 515 | Well, thank you so much for joining our deep dive today. | 谢谢你今天加入我们的深度潜水 |
| 516 | We hope you learned something new and maybe see the global economy a little | 我们希望你学到一些新东西 也许能看到全球经济 |
| 517 | differently now. | 现在不一样了 |
| 518 | We love exploring these big ideas with you. | 我们喜欢跟你探讨这些大主意 |
| 519 | See you next time. | 下次见 |
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