特斯拉上海厂十辆车九辆外销：中东战事推高需求，中国电车出口激
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深潜 |
| 0:02 | So I want you to imagine building 10 cars in your factory. | 所以我要你想象一下 在你的工厂里造10辆车 |
| 0:07 | OK, 10 cars. | 好吧,十辆车。 |
| 0:08 | But only one of them stays in your own country. | 但只有一人留在你本国 |
| 0:10 | The other nine, well, they get shipped across the world. | 另外9个 他们被运送到世界各地 |
| 0:13 | That is a crazy ratio. | 这是一个疯狂的比例。 |
| 0:14 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:15 | But that is exactly what Tesla is doing in Shanghai right now. | 但这正是特斯拉现在在上海做的事情. |
| 0:18 | So today, we are looking at a huge record-breaking jump | 所以今天,我们正在寻找 一个巨大的破纪录的跳跃 |
| 0:21 | in car exports from China. | 中国的汽车出口。 |
展开字幕全文（261 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深潜 |
| 2 | So I want you to imagine building 10 cars in your factory. | 所以我要你想象一下 在你的工厂里造10辆车 |
| 3 | OK, 10 cars. | 好吧,十辆车。 |
| 4 | But only one of them stays in your own country. | 但只有一人留在你本国 |
| 5 | The other nine, well, they get shipped across the world. | 另外9个 他们被运送到世界各地 |
| 6 | That is a crazy ratio. | 这是一个疯狂的比例。 |
| 7 | Right. | 对 |
| 8 | But that is exactly what Tesla is doing in Shanghai right now. | 但这正是特斯拉现在在上海做的事情. |
| 9 | So today, we are looking at a huge record-breaking jump | 所以今天,我们正在寻找 一个巨大的破纪录的跳跃 |
| 10 | in car exports from China. | 中国的汽车出口。 |
| 11 | And to do this, we are using a really interesting source. | 为了做到这一点,我们正在使用一个非常有趣的来源。 |
| 12 | It is an article from the South China Morning Post. | 这是一篇来自南华早报的文章. |
| 13 | The date is November 10, 2026. | 日期为2026年11月10日. |
| 14 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 15 | And our mission today is to figure out why this is happening, | 我们今天的任务是找出原因 |
| 16 | where you're going to explore the global events pushing | 你将探索全球事件 |
| 17 | this trend. | 这一趋势。 |
| 18 | And we will see why car companies are forced | 我们看看为什么汽车公司被迫 |
| 19 | to look outside of China. | 看看中国的外面 |
| 20 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 21 | The whole global car market is changing fast. | 整个全球汽车市场变化迅速. |
| 22 | And before we get too far, we should probably | 在我们走得太远之前,我们也许应该 |
| 23 | define a key term. | 定义关键术语。 |
| 24 | We will be talking a lot about EVs today. | 我们今天会讨论很多EVs |
| 25 | Right. | 对 |
| 26 | Good point. | 说得好 |
| 27 | EV just stands for electric vehicle. | EV只是代表电动车。 |
| 28 | It is simply a car that runs on a battery instead of gas. | 它只是一辆在电池上运行的汽车,而不是煤气。 |
| 29 | Simple enough. | 很简单 |
| 30 | So let us jump into the core numbers. | 让我们跳进核心数字。 |
| 31 | The amount of cars leaving China right now is just huge. | 现在离开中国的汽车数量太大了 |
| 32 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 33 | October 2026 was an all-time high for Chinese EV exports. | 2026年10月是中国EV出口创历史新高. |
| 34 | An all-time high. | 一时一时高. |
| 35 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 36 | And this is actually the second record-breaking month | 这其实是第二个破纪录月 |
| 37 | in a row. | 一连串 |
| 38 | They broke the record in September | 他们九月打破纪录 |
| 39 | and then just smashed it again in October. | 然后在10月又砸烂了 |
| 40 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 41 | So how many cars are we talking about here? | 我们这里要谈多少辆车? |
| 42 | Chinese brands sold 582,000 pure electric and plug-in hybrid | 中国品牌售出58.2万台纯电动和插头混合 |
| 43 | cars outside of mainland China just in October. | 10月刚刚在中国大陆以外的汽车. |
| 44 | Over half a million cars in one month. | 一个月内超过50万辆汽车. |
| 45 | That is like a damn bursting. | 这就像一个该死的爆发。 |
| 46 | That is a great way to describe it. | 这是一个很好的描述方法。 |
| 47 | And the growth rate is what really stands out. | 而增长率是真正突出的。 |
| 48 | Yeah, the article mentioned a huge jump. | 是的,文章提到一个巨大的跳跃。 |
| 49 | It was 144.7% higher than a year earlier. | 比一年前高144.7%。 |
| 50 | Right. | 对 |
| 51 | And for you listening, when we say year on year, | 你听, 当我们说年复一年, |
| 52 | we just mean comparing this October directly | 我们只是直接比较今年十月 |
| 53 | to last October. | 到去年十月为止 |
| 54 | So they more than doubled their exports in just one single year. | 因此,它们仅在一年内就把出口增加了一倍以上。 |
| 55 | That is a massive year on year jump. | 一年一度的跳跃 |
| 56 | It is. | 没错 |
| 57 | It changes the whole industry. | 改变了整个行业 |
| 58 | You have to build new ships, new ports, everything. | 你必须建造新的船,新的港口,一切。 |
| 59 | But wait, I have a specific question about this. | 但是,等等,我有一个具体的问题。 |
| 60 | Is this just Chinese brands or are foreign companies in China | 这是中国品牌还是外国公司 |
| 61 | exporting these cars too? | 也出口这些车? |
| 62 | That is a really important detail. | 这是一个非常重要的细节。 |
| 63 | Foreign companies are a huge part of this. | 外国公司是其中的一大部分。 |
| 64 | Tesla is actually the perfect example. | 特斯拉其实是完美的例子. |
| 65 | Ah, right. | 对 |
| 66 | The Shanghai factory. | 上海工厂. |
| 67 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 68 | Tesla's Shanghai factory exported over 59,000 cars in October, | 特斯拉的上海工厂在10月出口了59000多辆汽车, |
| 69 | mainly the Model 3 and Model Y. | 主要是型号3和型号Y. |
| 70 | 59,000 cars just from one factory. | 一个工厂的59000辆汽车 |
| 71 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 72 | And here is the craziest part. | 这是最疯狂的部分。 |
| 73 | Those exports were 87% of their total deliveries for the month. | 这些出口占当月总交货量的87%。 |
| 74 | Almost 90%. | 将近90%。 |
| 75 | So almost everything they build in China is leaving China. | 所以他们几乎在中国建造的一切 都离开了中国。 |
| 76 | Yep. | 对 |
| 77 | They are basically using that factory as an export hub | 他们基本上把工厂当作出口中心 |
| 78 | for the rest of the world now. | 为现在的其余世界。 |
| 79 | OK, so that is the what. | 好吧,这就是什么。 |
| 80 | We have this massive flood of cars leaving China. | 我们有很多车离开中国 |
| 81 | But that brings us to the why. | 但这就是为什么。 |
| 82 | Right. | 对 |
| 83 | Someone has to actually buy all these cars. | 总得有人买这些车 |
| 84 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 85 | Numbers like this do not happen by accident. | 这样的数字不是偶然发生的. |
| 86 | Why are so many people around the world suddenly buying these electric cars? | 为什么全世界这么多人 突然买这些电动车? |
| 87 | Well, it really comes down to the global situation. | 嗯,它真的 下到全球的情况。 |
| 88 | High gas prices are making EVs look much more attractive. | 高昂的天然气价格使得EV看起来更有吸引力. |
| 89 | Right. | 对 |
| 90 | Because filling up a normal car is getting too expensive. | 因为装上一辆普通的车太贵了 |
| 91 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 92 | The source article points to a big energy shock in the Middle East. | 来源文章指出中东能源大震荡. |
| 93 | It notes that high petrol or gas prices are being driven by the US-Israel war on Iran. | 它指出,美国-以色列对伊朗的战争正在推动高昂的汽油或天然气价格。 |
| 94 | OK, I need to pause this right here for a second. | 好,我要暂停一下 |
| 95 | We want to be absolutely clear with you, the listener. | 我们想跟你说清楚,听者 |
| 96 | We are strictly reporting the facts from our source material today. | 我们今天严格从来源材料中报告事实。 |
| 97 | Right, the economic facts. | 对 经济事实 |
| 98 | Yes. | 对 |
| 99 | We are not taking any political sides regarding this conflict. | 我们对这场冲突不持任何政治立场。 |
| 100 | We are just sharing what the article says about how the war affects gas prices. | 我们只是分享文章中关于战争如何影响天然气价格的说法。 |
| 101 | That is a very important point. | 这是一个非常重要的问题。 |
| 102 | We are just looking at the economics. | 我们只是在研究经济学 |
| 103 | And the economics are simple. | 而经济学则很简单. |
| 104 | When a conflict causes gas prices to spike, everyday driving becomes very expensive. | 当冲突导致气价暴涨时,日常驾驶费用就会非常昂贵。 |
| 105 | It hurts normal families. | 伤于正常家庭. |
| 106 | It really does. | 确实 |
| 107 | So suddenly the cost of driving a regular car goes way up. | 所以突然间开一辆普通车的成本就上涨了 |
| 108 | This makes switching to an EV a very smart money choice for everyday people. | 这使得转换到EV是日常人们非常聪明的金钱选择. |
| 109 | I want to push back on that just a little bit, though. | 不过我想再往后推一点 |
| 110 | OK, go ahead. | 好吧,继续。 |
| 111 | Are people really not buying them because the cars are cool? | 难道人们真的不买它们 因为汽车很酷? |
| 112 | Or, you know, because they want to be green and help the planet? | 或者,你知道,因为他们想要绿色 帮助地球? |
| 113 | Or are they buying them simply because gas is too expensive? | 还是因为汽油太贵而买的? |
| 114 | I mean, being green is a nice bonus, for sure. | 我的意思是,绿色是一个很好的奖金,当然。 |
| 115 | But the main driver right now is value. | 但是现在的主要驱动器是价值。 |
| 116 | Fuel costs are pushing people to make the switch. | 燃料成本迫使人们进行转换。 |
| 117 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 118 | It is about the wallet. | 这是关于钱包。 |
| 119 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 120 | And Chinese electric cars just offer better value for money than a lot of their international rivals. | 而中国的电动汽车仅仅提供了比许多国际对手更好的性价比. |
| 121 | They are cheaper to buy. | 买起来比较便宜 |
| 122 | So expensive gas creates this huge global demand. | 如此昂贵的天然气创造了全球的巨大需求。 |
| 123 | People everywhere want cheaper electric cars. | 到处都是人想要更便宜的电动车 |
| 124 | Right. | 对 |
| 125 | But if these Chinese EVs are so popular globally, are they selling just as fast inside China? | 但是,如果这些中国EV在全球如此流行,它们在中国国内的销售是否同样快? |
| 126 | That is the really surprising part. | 这是真正令人惊讶的部分。 |
| 127 | The answer is no. | 答曰无. |
| 128 | Wait, really? | 等等,真的吗? |
| 129 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 130 | While exports are booming, China's domestic car market is actually shrinking. | 在出口繁荣的同时,中国国内汽车市场实际上正在萎缩. |
| 131 | Shrinking. | 嘘. |
| 132 | That seems backwards. | 这似乎倒退。 |
| 133 | What do the numbers say? | 数字怎么说的? |
| 134 | In October, the total deliveries of all cars, gas and electric, inside mainland China fell by 27.1% compared to last year. | 10月,中国大陆国内所有汽车,燃气和电动的交付总量比去年下降27.1%. |
| 135 | That is a huge drop. | 这是一个巨大的下降。 |
| 136 | Over a quarter of the local market just vanished? | 超过四分之一的当地市场刚刚消失了? |
| 137 | It is massive. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 138 | And it is not just one bad month. | 这不仅仅是一个坏月。 |
| 139 | For the first 10 months of 2026, domestic deliveries fell by 22.3%. | 2026年头10个月,国内分娩下降了22.3%。 |
| 140 | OK, so fewer people in China are buying cars. | 好,中国买车的人就少了 |
| 141 | Why is that happening? | 为什么? |
| 142 | Well, there are two main reasons. | 嗯,有两个主要原因。 |
| 143 | First, the general economy in China is slowing down. | 一,中国经济总体放缓. |
| 144 | People are just spending less money. | 人们只是少花钱。 |
| 145 | Right. | 对 |
| 146 | If you are worried about the economy, you do not buy a new car. | 如果你担心经济,你不会买新车。 |
| 147 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 148 | And the second reason is specific to EVs. | 而第二个原因是EVs特有的. |
| 149 | The government cut the subsidies for buying electric cars. | 政府削减购买电动汽车的补贴. |
| 150 | OK, let us explain that term for the listener. | 好吧,让我们来解释这个词 对于听众。 |
| 151 | What exactly is a subsidy? | 补贴到底是什么? |
| 152 | A subsidy is basically financial help from the government. | 补贴基本上是政府的财政帮助。 |
| 153 | The government gives money to make a product cheaper for regular people to buy. | 政府给钱让一种产品更便宜供普通人购买. |
| 154 | So they artificially lower the price tag. | 所以他们人为地降低了价格标签。 |
| 155 | Right. | 对 |
| 156 | For a long time, the Chinese government gave out subsidies to help build the EV market. | 中国政府长期给予补贴,帮助建设EV市场. |
| 157 | It made the cars very cheap for local buyers. | 这让这些汽车对当地买家来说非常便宜. |
| 158 | But now that money is gone. | 但现在钱不见了 |
| 159 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 160 | And without that government money making the cars cheaper, local buyers are just staying home. | 没有政府的钱 汽车更便宜, 当地买家只是呆在家里。 |
| 161 | They are not buying. | 他们不买。 |
| 162 | So it is kind of like, well, think of a local bakery. | 所以它有点像,嗯, 想想当地的面包店。 |
| 163 | OK, a bakery. | 好吧,一个面包店。 |
| 164 | It is like a local bakery losing all of its hometown customers. | 它就像一家当地面包店 失去了所有家乡的顾客 |
| 165 | Right. | 对 |
| 166 | The bakery still has all these ovens running, making tons of cakes. | 面包店仍然有这些烤箱运行, 制造吨蛋糕。 |
| 167 | But Millen in town is buying them. | 但镇上的米伦正在买 |
| 168 | So to survive, the bakery has to start selling its cakes to the next town over. | 为了生存,面包店必须开始 出售蛋糕到下一个城镇。 |
| 169 | That is a perfect analogy. | 这是一个完美的类比。 |
| 170 | The car factories have these huge assembly lines. | 汽车工厂有这些巨大的装配线. |
| 171 | They cannot just turn them off. | 他们不能把它们关掉。 |
| 172 | If the local town, or in this case, China, stops buying, they have to look outward. | 如果当地城镇,或者在这种情况下,中国,停止购买,他们就必须向外看. |
| 173 | They have to export or they go out of business. | 他们必须出口,否则就断业。 |
| 174 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 175 | And that brings us to who is actually doing this. | 这让我们想到谁在这样做。 |
| 176 | Because of this local drop, every major Chinese EV maker is racing to sell abroad. | 由于当地的这一下降,每个主要的中国EV制造者都在竞速向国外销售. |
| 177 | They are all chasing those global buyers. | 他们都在追寻这些全球买家。 |
| 178 | Yes. | 对 |
| 179 | The article has a great quote from a factory owner named Kian Kang. | 文章引用了一位名叫姜健的厂主的好话. |
| 180 | He makes parts for these cars. | 他为这些车制造零件。 |
| 181 | He says, all Chinese EV makers are now chasing growth in overseas markets. | 他说,现在所有的中国EV制造商都在追逐海外市场的增长. |
| 182 | And we can really see that in the data, right? | 我们从数据中就能看到,对吧? |
| 183 | Oh, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 184 | 看着BYD。 | |
| 185 | They are the world's largest EV maker. | 他们是世界上最大的EV制造者. |
| 186 | Right, they are huge. | 对,它们很大 |
| 187 | They sold over 170,000 cars abroad just in October. | 10月,他们在国外出售了17万多辆汽车。 |
| 188 | 170,000 in one month. | 一个月内17万. |
| 189 | Yes. | 对 |
| 190 | That is wild. | 这是疯狂的。 |
| 191 | And Geely, another big brand, saw their exports jump nearly 168% this year. | 而Geely,另一个大品牌,今年他们的出口跃升了近168%. |
| 192 | The legacy car companies are definitely pushing hard. | 传统汽车公司肯定在大力推动 |
| 193 | But you know, there was one company in the article that really surprised me. | 但是,你知道,有一个公司 在文章中 真正让我惊讶。 |
| 194 | Which one? | 哪一个? |
| 195 | Xiaomi. | 晓美. |
| 196 | Ah, yes. | 对 |
| 197 | Xiaomi is a fascinating part of the story. | 小美是故事中令人着迷的部分. |
| 198 | Right. | 对 |
| 199 | Because most people know Xiaomi for making cell phones. | 因为大多数人都知道小美制造手机 |
| 200 | You buy their phones or their smart home devices. | 你买他们的手机 或他们的智能家用设备。 |
| 201 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 202 | But now, they are stepping up as a big challenger to Tesla. | 但是现在,他们正在作为挑战特斯拉的大挑战者升级. |
| 203 | A phone company is making cars. | 一家电话公司正在制造汽车。 |
| 204 | It sounds crazy, but a modern EV is really just a giant smart device on wheels. | 这听起来很疯狂,但是现代的EV真的只是一个巨大的智能装置在车轮上. |
| 205 | It is all about software and batteries. | 这是所有关于软件和电池。 |
| 206 | Xiaomi already knows how to do that perfectly. | 小美已经知道该怎么做了 |
| 207 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 208 | And they are really serious about selling these cars globally. | 他们真的很严肃地想在全球销售这些汽车。 |
| 209 | The article mentions they are building a whole new international department just for this. | 文章提到他们正为此建立一个全新的国际部门。 |
| 210 | Yes. | 对 |
| 211 | They even appointed a major vice president, Yu Liguo, to lead this new department. | 他们甚至任命一个大副总裁俞立国领导这个新部门. |
| 212 | They want to use their global phone stores and brand name to sell cars everywhere. | 他们想用自己的全球电话商店和品牌来到处销售汽车. |
| 213 | That is so smart. | 真聪明 |
| 214 | They already have stores all over the world. | 他们已经在世界各地都有商店了。 |
| 215 | Right. | 对 |
| 216 | It makes them a very dangerous competitor for traditional car brands in Europe and America. | 这使得他们成为欧美传统汽车品牌非常危险的竞争对手. |
| 217 | So we have all these companies racing outward. | 因此,我们有所有这些公司 竞速向外。 |
| 218 | The numbers are already breaking records. | 这些数字已经打破了记录。 |
| 219 | Where does this go from here? | 这从哪里开始? |
| 220 | Well, the predictions are actually getting higher. | 预言越来越高了 |
| 221 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 222 | How high? | 有多高? 高吗? |
| 223 | The China Passenger Car Association made a new prediction. | 中国客车协会作出新预测. |
| 224 | They think overseas sales could top 12 million units in 2026. | 他们认为海外销量可能在2026年达到1200万套. |
| 225 | 12 million cars. | 1200万辆汽车. |
| 226 | Yeah, and that includes passenger cars and commercial vehicles. | 是啊,这包括 客车和商用车辆。 |
| 227 | It is much higher than anyone estimated earlier this year. | 这比今年早些时候估计的任何人都高得多。 |
| 228 | The early guesses were only around 10 million. | 早期的猜测只有1000万左右. |
| 229 | The trend is just accelerating. | 这一趋势正在加速。 |
| 230 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 231 | Okay, let us quickly summarize the journey we took today. | 好吧,让我们快速总结我们今天的旅程。 |
| 232 | Sounds good. | 听起来不错 |
| 233 | We started by looking at these record-breaking Chinese EV exports, | 我们开始研究这些创纪录的中国EV出口 |
| 234 | and we found out they were being driven by a sort of perfect storm. | 我们发现他们正被一场完美的风暴驱使着 |
| 235 | Right, a mix of global and local events. | 对,是全球和本地活动的结合 |
| 236 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 237 | On one side, high global gas prices are making people everywhere want electric cars. | 一方面,全球天然气价格高企,使各地民众都想要电动汽车. |
| 238 | And on the other side, a shrinking local market inside China is forcing these brands to look outward just to survive. | 而另一方面,中国国内当地市场不断萎缩,迫使这些品牌向外看只是为了生存. |
| 239 | It is a massive shift in how the world buys cars. | 这是世界如何购买汽车的巨大转变。 |
| 240 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 241 | And before we go, I want to leave you, the listener, with a final question to think about. | 在出发前,我想留你,听者, 最后一个问题要考虑。 |
| 242 | Oh, I love these. | 哦,我喜欢这些。 |
| 243 | What is the question? | 问题是什么? |
| 244 | Well, Chinese carmakers are putting all their focus on overseas markets right now, right? | 中国的汽车制造商现在都专注于海外市场,对吧? |
| 245 | Because their home market is slowing down. | 因为他们的家庭市场减速了 |
| 246 | Right. | 对 |
| 247 | But what happens if those international markets suddenly change their trade rules? | 但是,如果这些国际市场突然改变其贸易规则,怎么办? |
| 248 | Like, what if they add new taxes to protect their own car brands? | 比如,如果他们增加新税来保护自己的汽车品牌呢? |
| 249 | That would be a huge roadblock. | 这将是一个巨大的路障。 |
| 250 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 251 | Or think about the gas prices. | 或以为气价. |
| 252 | What if global conflicts cool down and gas prices drop back to normal? | 如果全球冲突降温,天然气价格恢复正常,怎么办? |
| 253 | Oh, then people might not want EVs as much. | 哦,那么人们可能不会 喜欢EVs。 |
| 254 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 255 | So the big question for you to mull over is, can this massive export boom really last forever? | 所以,对于你来说,最大的问题是, 这个巨大的出口繁荣 能真正持续到永远吗? |
| 256 | That is a great thought to end on. | 这是一个伟大的想法结束。 |
| 257 | The foundation might be a little shakier than the numbers suggest. | 基础可能比数字显示的要不稳定一些。 |
| 258 | We will have to wait and see. | 我们只能等着瞧 |
| 259 | Well, thank you so much for joining us for today's Deep Dive. | 非常感谢你加入今天的深渊 |
| 260 | We hope you learned something new about the global car market. | 我们希望你学到一些关于全球汽车市场的新东西。 |
| 261 | See you next time. | 下次见 |
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