【business 附文稿】全球最激进的电动车转型不在中美，

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P1 · 【business 附文稿】全球最激进的电动车转型不在中美，而在埃塞俄比亚｜[中英-生肉] p01 中英字幕 (P1)

【business 附文稿】全球最激进的电动车转型不在中美，而在埃塞俄比亚｜[中英-生肉] p01 中英字幕 (P1)

发布于 2026-11-05 · 时长 16:06

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	You might think the future of electric vehicles	你可能会想到电动车辆的未来
0:03	belongs to Norway, China, maybe California,	属于挪威、中国、加利福尼亚
0:08	but the place moving faster	但那个地方移动得更快
0:09	than almost anywhere else isn't rich.	比其他任何地方都有钱
0:13	It isn't famous for making cars	造车不出名
0:15	and roughly half the population	大约一半的人口
0:16	still doesn't have reliable electricity.	仍然没有可靠的电力。
0:20	EVs have quietly arrived in Ethiopia.	EVs悄悄抵达埃塞俄比亚.
0:24	Suddenly Ethiopia,	突然间,埃塞俄比亚
0:26	one of the poorest countries in the world,	世界上最贫穷的国家之一,

展开字幕全文（275 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	You might think the future of electric vehicles	你可能会想到电动车辆的未来
2	belongs to Norway, China, maybe California,	属于挪威、中国、加利福尼亚
3	but the place moving faster	但那个地方移动得更快
4	than almost anywhere else isn't rich.	比其他任何地方都有钱
5	It isn't famous for making cars	造车不出名
6	and roughly half the population	大约一半的人口
7	still doesn't have reliable electricity.	仍然没有可靠的电力。
8	EVs have quietly arrived in Ethiopia.	EVs悄悄抵达埃塞俄比亚.
9	Suddenly Ethiopia,	突然间,埃塞俄比亚
10	one of the poorest countries in the world,	世界上最贫穷的国家之一,
11	decided it's just going to go ahead	就决定了继续吧
12	and do what none of the richest countries have done.	做一个最富有的国家没有做过的事。
13	In 2024, this country banned new gas cars completely.	2024年,这个国家彻底禁止了新的燃气汽车.
14	The government banned the import of petrol	政府禁止进口汽油
15	and diesel vehicles, a very radical move.	和柴油机车, 一个非常激进的动作。
16	Ethiopia's vehicle fleet is going electric faster	埃塞俄比亚的车队电动速度更快
17	than most of the world.	比大多数世界。
18	It's working, mostly.	它的工作,大多数。
19	Automobile dealerships, you'll see only EVs.	汽车经销商,你只见EV.
20	You don't see fuel cars because of the burn.	你看不到燃料车 因为燃烧。
21	One country, one enormous experiment.	一个国家,一个巨大的实验。
22	And a question, what happens when a country decides	一个问题,当一个国家决定
23	it can't afford gasoline anymore?	买不起汽油了?
24	Ethiopia is the first country to fully ban	埃塞俄比亚是第一个完全禁止的国家
25	the import of fuel cars.	进口燃料汽车。
26	To be clear, nobody's car was confiscated.	说清楚 没有人的车被没收了
27	Every gas-powered vehicle already in Ethiopia	埃塞俄比亚所有的燃气车辆
28	could stay on the road.	还可以留在路上
29	But beginning in 2024, no new one	但从2024年开始 没有新的
30	could enter the country.	可以进入这个国家。
31	Plenty of countries have pledged to do something like this.	许多国家已承诺采取类似行动。
32	The UK, Canada, members of the EU.	英国,加拿大,欧盟成员国.
33	But these pledges would phase out gas cars	但是这些保证会淘汰燃气车
34	over the course of a decade.	10年来
35	And many have been quietly walked back.	许多人悄悄地走回去。
36	Ethiopia did it almost overnight.	埃塞俄比亚几乎一夜之间就这样做了。
37	Forget climate for a minute.	忘记气候一分钟。
38	Follow the money.	跟着钱走
39	Ethiopia imports more than it exports.	埃塞俄比亚的进口超过出口。
40	One of the major things that import is fuel.	进口的主要产品之一是燃料。
41	Up to $5 billion a year.	每年高达50亿美元.
42	$5 billion.	50亿元.
43	For years, Ethiopia subsidized fuel,	多年来,埃塞俄比亚补贴燃料,
44	with money it didn't really have.	钱,它真的没有。
45	In 2023, it defaulted on its debt.	2023年,它拖欠债务.
46	Ethiopia failed to make an interest payment on its bond,	埃塞俄比亚没有支付债券利息,
47	making it the latest default in Africa.	使其成为非洲最新的违约。
48	Officials are scrambling to avert a financial meltdown.	官员们为避免金融崩溃而纷纷奔走。
49	Then the International Monetary Fund stepped in	后来国际货币基金组织介入
50	with a $3.4 billion bailout.	以34亿美元的援助。
51	Gasoline in Addis has been tough.	亚的斯亚贝巴的汽油一直很困难。
52	We observe long queues at gas stations	我们在加油站观察长队列
53	that take hours and sometimes days.	这需要几个小时,有时几天。
54	Natanayel Terese, no relation to Fasika Terese,	纳塔奈尔·泰雷塞 和法西卡·泰雷塞没有关系
55	is a taxi driver in Addis, Ababa.	是亚的斯亚贝巴的出租车司机
56	We don't have a lot of money,	我们的钱不多
57	so we don't have the technology we need.	所以我们没有我们需要的技术。
58	That's the equivalent of saving around $150 a month,	这相当于每月节省150美元左右
59	out of his total income of around $480 a month.	每月收入约480美元。
60	We have a lot of money,	我们有很多钱
61	so we don't have the technology we need.	所以我们没有我们需要的技术。
62	That's enough for us.	够了
63	Natanayel isn't alone.	纳塔奈尔并不孤单.
64	In 2024, more than 60% of newly registered cars	在2024年,60%以上的新注册汽车
65	in Addis, Ababa were electric.	在亚的斯亚贝巴是电动的。
66	And the number of EVs on Ethiopia's roads	还有埃塞俄比亚路上的EV数量
67	has exploded, from 7,000 in 2022	已经爆炸,从2022年的7000起
68	to more than 100,000 in 2025.	至2025年超过10万人。
69	Just to note, these are government figures.	这些是政府的数字。
70	We do not have independent assessments of those figures.	我们对这些数字没有独立的评估。
71	The U.S. International Trade Organization	美国国际贸易组织
72	puts the figure at around 30,000	数字是三万左右
73	before the gas car ban was in place.	在禁用汽油车之前
74	But talk to anybody on Addis, Ababa streets,	但是跟亚的斯亚贝巴、亚的斯亚贝巴街上的任何人谈谈
75	and they'll tell you they're just seeing	他们会告诉你,他们只是看到
76	a lot more electric vehicles on the road.	路上电动车多得多
77	Before the full ban in 2024,	在2024年全面禁赛前,
78	the EV penetration was about 1% or below that.	电磁波的渗透率大约是1%或低于1%。
79	Today, EVs make up 6% of all vehicles on the roads.	今天,EV在路上所有车辆中占6%.
80	And the global average is 4%.	全球平均水平为4%。
81	So in a mere two years,	所以在短短两年内
82	Ethiopia has essentially leapfrogged the rest of the world	埃塞俄比亚基本上已经跨越世界
83	in adopting electric vehicles.	采用电动车辆。
84	So how'd they do it?	他们是怎么做到的?
85	Step one, cheap electricity.	第一步 廉价电力
86	Ethiopia can't afford oil,	埃塞俄比亚买不起石油
87	but electricity, it now has some of the cheapest	但是电,它现在有一些最便宜的
88	in the world.	在这个世界。
89	In Ethiopia, the average price of electricity	在埃塞俄比亚,平均电价
90	is about 10 cents per kilowatt hour.	每千瓦时约10美分.
91	And just to put that in context,	说到背景
92	the average price of electricity in the U.S. last year	去年美国平均电价
93	was about 18 cents per kilowatt hour.	大约每千瓦时18美分。
94	In the UK, it was about 40 cents per kilowatt hour.	在英国,每千瓦时约40美分.
95	Which probably raises a question.	这可能会引起一个问题。
96	How is Ethiopia making electricity this cheap?	埃塞俄比亚如何使电力这么便宜?
97	All of it traces back to one giant piece of concrete	全部都追溯到一块巨大的混凝土
98	on the Blue Nile.	在青尼罗河上
99	Last year, Ethiopia inaugurated	去年,埃塞俄比亚宣布成立
100	the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dome	大埃塞俄比亚文艺复兴穹顶
101	that produces about 5,000 megawatt energy,	发电量约5 000兆瓦,
102	which significantly increased the country's	这大大增加了国家
103	power generating capacity.	发电能力。
104	It's the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.	它是非洲最大的水电站.
105	It took 14 years, about $5 billion,	花了14年,约50亿美元,
106	and a long fight with Egypt over water rights.	与埃及争夺水权,
107	It is indeed a historic day for Ethiopia.	对埃塞俄比亚来说,这确实是历史性的一天。
108	A marvel of engineering	工程的奇迹
109	and a boon for the prosperity of the people of this region.	也是这个地区人民繁荣的恩惠。
110	99% of Ethiopia's electricity comes from clean sources.	99%的埃塞俄比亚电力来自清洁来源.
111	96% from hydropower.	96%来自水电.
112	And it produces more than enough for Ethiopia	对埃塞俄比亚来说,这已经足够了
113	enough to be able to export to neighboring countries	足够出口到邻国
114	like Tanzania, Kenya, and Djibouti.	像坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚和吉布提
115	But generating electricity isn't the same as moving it.	但发电和移动并不相同。
116	And Ethiopia's grid is a challenge.	埃塞俄比亚的电网是一个挑战。
117	Ethiopia has about 130 million people.	埃塞俄比亚约有1.3亿人。
118	According to a recent estimate,	根据最近的估计,
119	only about 55% of the people have access to electricity.	只有大约55%的人能用上电。
120	Blackouts are common too.	断电也是常见的。
121	This all makes charging EVs difficult.	这一切使得充电 EV 很难。
122	And when the ban took effect,	当禁令生效时,
123	Ethiopia had almost no public charging stations.	埃塞俄比亚几乎没有公共充电站。
124	In the West, it would be a shock and horror	在西方,那将是一个震惊和恐怖
125	if you brought in a ban on fossil fuel cars	如果你带来了 禁止化石燃料汽车
126	and you did not have a fast charger.	而你没有快速充电器。
127	It's a classic chicken and egg problem.	这是典型的鸡蛋问题.
128	Nobody buys EVs because there aren't enough chargers.	没人买EV 因为充电器不够
129	And nobody builds chargers because there aren't enough EVs.	没有人会建造充电器 因为没有足够的EV。
130	But in Ethiopia, more than enough chargers are needed.	但是在埃塞俄比亚,需要充电器超过足够。
131	Most people are charging at home.	大部分人在家里充电。
132	And the charging infrastructure came	充电基础设施来了
133	after car sales started to begin.	汽车销售开始后
134	So the chicken and an egg situation had the chicken first	鸡和鸡蛋先吃了鸡
135	and the egg came later.	蛋后来就来了
136	Today, the country has around 200 public charging stations.	今天,全国约有200个公共收费站。
137	And the network is pushing into more cities	网络向更多城市推进
138	like Addama and Hawassa.	就像阿达玛和哈瓦萨
139	Cheap electricity gets you halfway.	廉价电能让你半途而废
140	You still need something to plug in.	你还需要一些东西插进去
141	And Ethiopia doesn't really make cars.	而埃塞俄比亚并没有真正制造汽车。
142	Walk into a car dealership in Addis Ababa	走进亚的斯亚贝巴的汽车经销店
143	and nearly everything on the lot comes from one place.	几乎所有的东西都来自一个地方
144	Almost all of the car dealerships are selling EVs	几乎所有的汽车经销商都卖EV
145	that are imported from China, mainly Chinese brands.	从中国进口的,主要是中国品牌。
146	About five years ago,	大约五年前,
147	China wasn't exporting very many vehicles at all,	中国没有出口很多车辆
148	whether they were electric or not.	不管有没有电
149	And today, China is one of the world's largest exporters	今天,中国是世界上最大的出口国之一
150	of all vehicles.	所有车辆。
151	It is exporting more vehicles than Germany and Japan.	它出口的车辆比德国和日本多。
152	So if the Ethiopian story feels like a sideshow	所以,如果埃塞俄比亚的故事 感觉像一个侧展
153	to Western automakers,	对西方汽车制造商,
154	the global figures should worry them.	全球数字应该让他们担心。
155	But Ethiopia didn't just want to buy Chinese cars.	但埃塞俄比亚并不想只买中国汽车.
156	It wanted to build them with Ethiopian workers.	它想与埃塞俄比亚工人一起建造。
157	So it made importers an offer.	所以它给了进口商一个报价。
158	If you import a fully assembled EV,	如果你进口了全装配的EV
159	you pay about 15% in tariff.	你付了15%的关税
160	But if you import a semi-assembled car	但如果你进口了半组装车
161	in a kit of parts, known as semi-knockdown or SKD,	在一个包 零件,称为 半敲击或SKD,
162	you pay just a 5% tariff.	你只付5%的关税。
163	And if you get the car fully in parts,	如果你把车装满零件
164	like a full IKEA flat pack situation,	像一个完整的宜家 平整的情况,
165	known as completely knockdown or CKD,	被称为完全倒闭或CKD,
166	then you pay no tariff at all.	那你就不用交关税了
167	Somebody in the country will assemble it for you	乡下有人会帮你组装的
168	and then you can sell it at a 0% tariff.	然后按0%的费率出售。
169	Ship a finished car, pay the tax.	运送成品车,交税.
170	Ship a box of parts, pay nothing.	运送一箱零件,不给钱。
171	So the boxes started arriving.	于是箱子开始运抵.
172	30 kilometers outside the capital,	在首都30公里外
173	this is what that policy looks like in action.	这就是该政策在行动中的模样。
174	The government has licensed about 17 EV assembly companies,	政府已经批准了大约17家EV组装公司
175	but so far only one of them,	但到目前为止只有一个
176	BKG Manufacturing, started operation.	BKG制造,开始运营.
177	Belayne Kinde集团成立于1991年
178	as an import-export business.	作为进出口业务。
179	Today, it's one of Ethiopia's largest private conglomerates.	今天,它是埃塞俄比亚最大的私人集团之一.
180	Everything from hotels to farms to construction,	从酒店到农场到建筑
181	and since 2018, vehicles.	和自2018年起为车辆.
182	And it's not just cars that are going electric.	不仅仅是汽车在变电。
183	What rolls off the line here are minibuses,	这里的线路是小巴士
184	the shared taxis commonly used across Addis.	全亚的斯亚贝巴通用的共享出租车
185	The car is owned by the CKD department.	该车由CKD部门拥有.
186	This is a minibus.	这是辆小巴
187	The battery is used to charge the car.	电池用来充电汽车.
188	It's a 4-speed auto.	这是4速的汽车。
189	The car's battery is charged and charged.	车的电池充电和充电.
190	Since most people do not have their own cars,	由于大多数人没有自己的车,
191	people are dependent on public transport.	人们依赖公共交通。
192	The big buses are owned by the city administration,	大公交车归市政府所有
193	and the minibuses are run by individuals	小型客车由个人经营
194	who provide transportation service.	他们提供交通服务。
195	The Chinese automaker Nanjing Golden Dragon Bus Company	中国汽车制造商南京金龙巴士公司
196	supplies the parts to BKG that it assembles together.	为BKG提供组装部件。
197	At first, Chinese engineers ran the floor	一开始,中国工程师跑到地板上
198	alongside Ethiopian workers.	以及埃塞俄比亚工人。
199	That changed fast.	变化很快
200	When I went for the second time,	当我第二次去,
201	Ethiopian employees were fully trained by the Chinese,	埃塞俄比亚雇员受到中国人的全面培训,
202	and now they took over every process by themselves.	现在他们独自接管了每个过程
203	Many BKG minibuses go to private drivers and companies,	许多BKG小巴去私人司机和公司,
204	but its biggest single buyer?	但它最大的单一买家?
205	The city itself.	城内本身.
206	Ethiopia's ambitions have grown fast.	埃塞俄比亚的野心迅速增长。
207	In its 2025 climate plan,	在其2025年气候计划中,
208	it set a goal of reaching 500,000 electric vehicles	它设定了一个达到50万辆电动车的目标
209	and over 2,000 charging stations by 2033.	到2033年还有2000多个充电站。
210	The question now is whether it can make EVs affordable	现在的问题是它是否能够让EVs买得起
211	to new wave vehicles.	到新浪车辆。
212	The real sticking point for most Ethiopians	对大多数埃塞俄比亚人来说 真正的重点
213	to still buy electric vehicles is the sticker price.	仍然购买电动车辆是贴纸价格。
214	Electric vehicles are still many, many times more	电动车还是很多很多很多倍
215	than the average salary of an Ethiopian.	而不是埃塞俄比亚人的平均工资。
216	A small EV here, like the BYD Seagull,	一个小EV在这里, 像BYD海鸥,
217	runs about 23,000 US dollars.	运行约23000美元。
218	Average yearly income per person is less than 1,000 US dollars.	人均年收入不足1 000美元。
219	Which is why Ethiopia has one of the world's highest EV shares	这就是为什么埃塞俄比亚拥有世界最高的EV股份之一
220	and one of its lowest rates of car ownership.	也是汽车拥有率最低的国家之一
221	13 people out of 1,000 own cars.	自有车1000辆中13人.
222	So this is way below the African average,	因此,这远远低于非洲平均水平,
223	which is 73 of the 1,000 people.	这是73 1000人。
224	There's also a supply problem.	也有供应问题.
225	Ethiopia wants to kickstart a car industry, a tall order.	埃塞俄比亚希望启动汽车业,
226	This BKG plant builds about one vehicle a day.	这个BKG工厂每天大约建造一辆车.
227	BKG is already working on another plant,	BKG已经在另外的工厂工作了
228	this one for passenger cars, to begin assembly in 2027.	2027年开始装配
229	It's still a long way from Ethiopia's target,	距离埃塞俄比亚的目标还很远
230	but the biggest obstacle may have nothing to do with factories.	但最大的障碍可能与工厂无关。
231	In September 2026, fighting broke out	2026年9月,战斗爆发
232	in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region,	在埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷地区,
233	almost four years after a peace deal was signed	和约签订近四年
234	to end a deadly civil war between the government	结束政府之间的致命内战
235	and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.	以及提格雷人民解放阵线。
236	Ethiopia accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan	埃塞俄比亚指控厄立特里亚、埃及和苏丹
237	of supporting the rebels.	支持叛军。
238	All three deny it.	三者皆否认.
239	Ethiopia has grown increasingly isolated in the region,	埃塞俄比亚在该地区日益孤立,
240	partly because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam,	部分原因是埃塞俄比亚大复兴大坝,
241	which Egypt and Sudan opposed.	埃及和苏丹反对。
242	Ethiopia's prime minister has also made access	埃塞俄比亚总理也获准进入
243	to the Red Sea a national priority,	将红海作为国家优先事项,
244	fueling speculation about the future	助长对未来的猜测
245	of Eritrea's port of Assab.	厄立特里亚阿萨布港
246	Instability, at home and in the Middle East,	不稳定,在国内和中东,
247	makes the move away from oil even more urgent.	使得远离石油的举动更加迫切.
248	The battle for Hormuz intensifies,	赫尔穆兹之战激化了
249	sending energy prices higher across the board.	使能源价格全面上涨。
250	The price of crude oil shot to its highest level since 2023.	原油价格创下2023年以来最高水平.
251	This is a volatile market.	这是一个不稳定的市场。
252	The prices of oil have shot up 40 and 50%.	油价上涨40%和50%。
253	What we can see is that the number of electric vehicles	我们看到的是 电动车辆的数量
254	sold in developing countries in general	在发展中国家销售的商品
255	has been rising much more quickly	涨得更快了
256	than before the Iran War started.	比伊朗战争开始前。
257	Ethiopia isn't slowing down.	埃塞俄比亚没有减速。
258	Another hydropower plant is already under construction,	另一座水电站正在建造中,
259	due by the end of the decade.	十年结束时到期。
260	And in 2027, Ethiopia will host the UN Climate Summit	在2027年,埃塞俄比亚将主办联合国气候峰会
261	in Addis Ababa.	在亚的斯亚贝巴。
262	The government is excited to show to the world	政府很兴奋地向全世界展示
263	what an electric vehicle transition can look like	电动车辆的过渡会是什么样子
264	from the perspective of a developing country.	从发展中国家的角度来看。
265	This national experiment doesn't exactly copy paste.	这个国家实验并没有完全复制粘贴.
266	Most countries don't have a river like the Nile,	大多数国家都没有尼罗河
267	or a car market small enough to turn this quickly,	或汽车市场小到可以迅速转弯
268	or a fuel crisis big enough to force the question.	或燃料危机 足以迫使问题。
269	But it does settle one argument.	但这确实解决了一个争论。
270	The question was never really	问题从来不是
271	whether a country could do this fast.	一个国家能否迅速做到这一点。
272	It was whether one would.	是否该如此
273	Rich countries have spent two decades planning	富国花了20年时间进行规划
274	for a future they keep postponing.	为了未来,他们不断推迟。
275	Ethiopia couldn't afford to wait, so it didn't.	埃塞俄比亚无力等待,所以没有.

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P2 · 【business 附文稿】全球最激进的电动车转型不在中美，而在埃塞俄比亚｜[中英-生肉] p02 无字幕磨耳朵 (P2)

【business 附文稿】全球最激进的电动车转型不在中美，而在埃塞俄比亚｜[中英-生肉] p02 无字幕磨耳朵 (P2)

发布于 2026-11-05 · 时长 16:06

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	You might think the future of electric vehicles belongs to Norway, China, maybe California,	你可能会认为未来 电动车辆属于挪威,中国,也许加州,
0:08	but the place moving faster than almost anywhere else isn't rich.	但移动速度比其他任何地方都快的地方并不富裕.
0:13	It isn't famous for making cars	造车不出名
0:15	and roughly half the population still doesn't have reliable electricity.	大约一半的人口仍然没有可靠的电力。
0:20	EVs have quietly arrived	EVs悄悄地来了
0:22	in Ethiopia.	在埃塞俄比亚。
0:24	Suddenly, Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, decided it's just	突然间,世界上最贫穷的国家之一埃塞俄比亚决定
0:29	to go ahead and do what none of the richest countries have done.	继续做最富有国家没有做过的事。
0:32	In 2024, this country banned	2024年,这个国家禁止
0:35	new gas cars completely.	新的汽油车完全。

展开字幕全文（203 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	You might think the future of electric vehicles belongs to Norway, China, maybe California,	你可能会认为未来 电动车辆属于挪威,中国,也许加州,
2	but the place moving faster than almost anywhere else isn't rich.	但移动速度比其他任何地方都快的地方并不富裕.
3	It isn't famous for making cars	造车不出名
4	and roughly half the population still doesn't have reliable electricity.	大约一半的人口仍然没有可靠的电力。
5	EVs have quietly arrived	EVs悄悄地来了
6	in Ethiopia.	在埃塞俄比亚。
7	Suddenly, Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in the world, decided it's just	突然间,世界上最贫穷的国家之一埃塞俄比亚决定
8	to go ahead and do what none of the richest countries have done.	继续做最富有国家没有做过的事。
9	In 2024, this country banned	2024年,这个国家禁止
10	new gas cars completely.	新的汽油车完全。
11	The government banned the import of petrol and diesel vehicles, a very	政府禁止进口汽油和柴油车辆,
12	radical move.	激进的举动。
13	Ethiopia's vehicle fleet is going electric faster than most of the world.	埃塞俄比亚的车队电动速度快于世界大多数地区.
14	It's	这是
15	working, mostly.	工作,大多数。
16	In automobile dealerships, you'll see only EVs, you don't see fuel cars because of	在汽车经销商中,你会只看到EV, 你看不到燃料汽车,因为
17	one.	一个
18	One country, one enormous experiment.	一个国家,一个巨大的实验。
19	And a question, what happens when a country decides it	一个问题,当一个国家决定了它时会发生什么
20	can't afford gasoline anymore?	买不起汽油了?
21	Ethiopia is the first country to fully ban the import of fuel cars.	埃塞俄比亚是第一个全面禁止进口燃料车的国家。
22	To be clear, nobody's car was confiscated.	说清楚 没有人的车被没收了
23	Every gas-powered vehicle already in Ethiopia could stay	在埃塞俄比亚的每辆加油车都可以留下
24	on the road.	上路时.
25	But beginning in 2024, no new ones could enter the country.	但从2024年开始,没有新的国家能够进入这个国家.
26	Plenty of countries have	很多国家拥有
27	pledged to do something like this.	承诺做这样的事。
28	The UK, Canada, members of the EU.	英国,加拿大,欧盟成员国.
29	But these pledges would phase	但是,这些认捐会分阶段
30	out gas cars over the course of a decade.	10年里 煤气车都停了
31	And many have been quietly walked back.	许多人悄悄地走回去。
32	Ethiopia	埃塞俄比亚
33	did it almost overnight.	几乎一夜之间。
34	Forget climate for a minute.	忘记气候一分钟。
35	Follow the money.	跟着钱走
36	Ethiopia imports	埃塞俄比亚进口
37	more than it exports.	比出口还多
38	One of the major things that import is fuel, up to $5 billion a year.	进口的主要产品之一是燃料,每年高达50亿美元。
39	$5 billion.	50亿元.
40	For years, Ethiopia subsidized fuel, with money it didn't really have.	多年来,埃塞俄比亚补贴燃料,而它并没有真正拥有的资金。
41	In 2023, it defaulted on its debt.	2023年,它拖欠债务.
42	Ethiopia failed to make an interest payment on its bond,	埃塞俄比亚没有支付债券利息,
43	making it the latest default in Africa.	使其成为非洲最新的违约。
44	Officials are scrambling to avert a financial meltdown.	官员们为避免金融崩溃而纷纷奔走。
45	Then the International Monetary Fund stepped in with a $3.4 billion bailout.	随后,国际货币基金组织介入了34亿美元的救助.
46	Gasoline in Addis has been tough.	亚的斯亚贝巴的汽油一直很困难。
47	We observe long queues at gas stations that take hours,	我们在加油站看到长队 需要几个小时
48	and sometimes days.	有时候是几天
49	We have to be patient.	我们必须有耐心。
50	If things don't work out, we'll be in a most difficult situation.	如果事情不成功,我们就会陷入最困难的境地.
51	Nathanial Terese与Faseka Terese没有关系,是亚的斯亚贝巴的出租车司机。
52	We need to be patient.	我们需要耐心。
53	We have to be patient.	我们必须有耐心。
54	If things don't work out, we'll be in a more difficult situation.	如果事情不顺利,我们就会陷入更困难的境地.
55	That's the equivalent of saving around 150 US dollars a month, out of his total income	这相当于每月节省150美元 从他的总收入中
56	of around 480 US dollars a month.	每月约480美元。
57	In 2024, more than 60% of newly registered cars in Addis Ababa were electric, and the	2024年,亚的斯亚贝巴60%以上的新注册汽车是电动的,
58	number of EVs on Ethiopia's roads has exploded from 7,000 in 2022 to more than 100,000 in	埃塞俄比亚公路上的EV数量从2022年的7 000辆爆炸到100 000多辆
59	2025.	2025 (英语).
60	Just to note, these are government figures, we do not have independent assessments of	仅指出,这些是政府数字,我们没有独立评估
61	those figures.	这些数字。
62	The US International Trade Organization puts the figure at around 30,000 before the gas	美国国际贸易组织在燃气之前 估计是三万左右
63	car ban was in place.	汽车禁令已经到位。
64	But talk to anybody on Addis Ababa streets and they'll tell you they're just seeing	但是跟亚的斯亚贝巴街上的人谈谈 他们会告诉你他们只是看到
65	a lot more electric vehicles on the road.	路上电动车多得多
66	Before the full ban in 2024, the EV penetration was about 1% or below that.	在2024年全禁之前,EV的渗透率约为1%或低于1%.
67	Today, EVs make up 6% of all vehicles on the roads.	今天,EV在路上所有车辆中占6%.
68	And the global average is 4%.	全球平均水平为4%。
69	So in a mere two years, Ethiopia has essentially leapfrogged the rest of the world in adopting	因此在短短的两年内,埃塞俄比亚基本上已经跳过了世界其他地方,通过了
70	electric vehicles.	电动车辆。
71	So how'd they do it?	他们是怎么做到的?
72	Step one, cheap electricity.	第一步 廉价电力
73	Ethiopia can't afford oil, but electricity, it now has some of the cheapest in the world.	埃塞俄比亚负担不起石油,但电力,现在它拥有一些世界上最便宜的石油.
74	In Ethiopia, the average price of electricity is about 10 cents per kilowatt hour.	在埃塞俄比亚,平均电价约为每千瓦时10美分.
75	And just to put that in context, the average price of electricity in the US last year was	简而言之,去年美国平均电价
76	about 18 cents per kilowatt hour.	每千瓦时18美分左右
77	In the UK, it was about 40 cents per kilowatt hour.	在英国,每千瓦时约40美分.
78	Which probably raises a question.	这可能会引起一个问题。
79	How is Ethiopia making electricity this cheap?	埃塞俄比亚如何使电力这么便宜?
80	All of it traces back to one giant piece of concrete on the Blue Nile.	所有这一切都可以追溯到青尼罗河上的一块巨大的混凝土.
81	Last year, Ethiopia inaugurated the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam that produces about	去年,埃塞俄比亚启用了大埃塞俄比亚复兴大坝,该坝大约生产
82	5,000 megawatt energy, which significantly increased the country's power generating capacity.	5000兆瓦能源,大大提高了我国发电能力.
83	It's the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa.	它是非洲最大的水电站.
84	It took 14 years, about $5 billion, and a long fight with Egypt over water rights.	耗时14年,约50亿美元,与埃及长期争夺水权.
85	It is indeed a historic day for Ethiopia.	对埃塞俄比亚来说,这确实是历史性的一天。
86	A marvel of engineering and a boon for the prosperity of the people of this region.	这是工程的奇迹,也是该地区人民繁荣的好兆头。
87	99% of Ethiopia's electricity comes from clean sources, 96% from hydropower.	99%的埃塞俄比亚电力来自清洁来源,96%来自水电。
88	And it produces more than enough for Ethiopia enough to be able to export to neighboring	足够埃塞俄比亚出口到邻国
89	countries like Tanzania, Kenya and Djibouti.	坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚和吉布提等国。
90	But generating electricity isn't the same as moving it.	但发电和移动并不相同。
91	And Ethiopia's grid is a challenge.	埃塞俄比亚的电网是一个挑战。
92	Ethiopia has about 130 million people.	埃塞俄比亚约有1.3亿人。
93	According to a recent estimate, only about 55% of the people have access to electricity.	根据最近的估计,只有大约55%的人能用上电。
94	Blackouts are common too.	断电也是常见的。
95	This all makes charging EVs difficult.	这一切使得充电 EV 很难。
96	And when the ban took effect, Ethiopia had almost no public charging stations.	而当禁令生效时,埃塞俄比亚几乎没有公共充电站.
97	In the West, it would be a shock and horror if you brought in a ban on fossil fuel cars	在西方,如果禁止化石燃料汽车,那将是震惊和恐怖。
98	and you did not have a fast charger.	而你没有快速充电器。
99	It's a classic chicken and egg problem.	这是典型的鸡蛋问题.
100	Nobody buys EVs because there aren't enough chargers.	没人买EV 因为充电器不够
101	And nobody builds chargers because there aren't enough EVs.	没有人会建造充电器 因为没有足够的EV。
102	But in Ethiopia, most people are charging at home.	但在埃塞俄比亚,大多数人在家里收费。
103	And the charging infrastructure came after car sales started to begin.	而充电基础设施是在汽车销售开始后开始的.
104	So the chicken and egg situation had the chicken first and the egg came later.	所以鸡蛋的情况先是鸡蛋,然后是蛋蛋。
105	Today, the country has around 200 public charging stations.	今天,全国约有200个公共收费站。
106	And the network is pushing into more cities like Addama and Hawassa.	网络正在推进到更多城市,如阿达玛和哈瓦萨。
107	Cheap electricity gets you halfway.	廉价电能让你半途而废
108	You still need something to plug in.	你还需要一些东西插进去
109	And Ethiopia doesn't really make cars.	而埃塞俄比亚并没有真正制造汽车。
110	Walk into a car dealership in Addis Ababa and nearly everything on the lot comes from one place.	走进亚的斯亚贝巴的汽车经销商 几乎所有的地方都来自一个地方
111	Almost all of the car dealerships are selling EVs that are imported from China, mainly Chinese brands.	几乎所有汽车经销商都销售从中国进口的EV,主要是中国品牌.
112	About five years ago, China wasn't exporting very many vehicles at all,	大约五年前,中国没有出口很多车辆,
113	whether they were electric or not.	不管有没有电
114	And today, China is one of the world's largest exporters of all vehicles.	而今天,中国是世界上最大的所有车辆出口国之一.
115	It is exporting more vehicles than Germany and Japan.	它出口的车辆比德国和日本多。
116	So if the Ethiopian story feels like a sideshow to Western automakers,	因此,如果埃塞俄比亚的故事 感觉像一个侧展 西方汽车制造商,
117	the global figures should worry them.	全球数字应该让他们担心。
118	But Ethiopia didn't just want to buy Chinese cars.	但埃塞俄比亚并不想只买中国汽车.
119	It wanted to build them with Ethiopian workers.	它想与埃塞俄比亚工人一起建造。
120	So it made importers an offer.	所以它给了进口商一个报价。
121	If you import a fully assembled EV, you pay about 15% in tariff.	进口装配齐全的EV时,缴纳约15%的关税.
122	But if you import a semi-assembled car in a kit of parts,	但如果你把半组装车装在零件包里
123	known as semi-knockdown or SKD, you pay just a 5% tariff.	被称为半敲击或SKD,你只付5%的关税。
124	And if you get the car fully in parts, like a full IKEA flat pack situation,	如果你把车整装待发 就像池州平房一样
125	known as completely knockdown or CKD, then you pay no tariff at all.	被称作完全倒闭或CKD, 然后你不支付任何关税。
126	Somebody in the country will assemble it for you,	乡下有人会帮你组装的
127	and then you can sell it at a 0% tariff.	然后按0%的费率出售。
128	Ship a finished car, pay the tax.	运送成品车,交税.
129	Ship a box of parts, pay nothing.	运送一箱零件,不给钱。
130	So the boxes started arriving.	于是箱子开始运抵.
131	30 kilometers outside the capital, this is what that policy looks like in action.	在首都30公里外,这就是这项政策在行动中的样子。
132	The government has licensed about 17 EV assembly companies,	政府已经批准了大约17家EV组装公司
133	but so far only one of them, BKG Manufacturing, started operation.	但迄今为止只有其中一款,即BKG制造公司,开始运营.
134	Belaine Kinde Group于1991年开始作为进出口业务。
135	Today, it's one of Ethiopia's largest private conglomerates.	今天,它是埃塞俄比亚最大的私人集团之一.
136	Everything from hotels to farms to construction, and since 2018, vehicles.	从酒店到农场到建筑的一切,2018年起,车辆.
137	And it's not just cars that are going electric.	不仅仅是汽车在变电。
138	What rolls off the line here are minibuses,	这里的线路是小巴士
139	the shared taxis commonly used across Addis.	全亚的斯亚贝巴通用的共享出租车
140	The CKD department is responsible for the maintenance of the minibuses.	CKD部门负责小客车的维修.
141	We are responsible for the maintenance of the minibuses.	我们负责维修小巴。
142	Since most people do not have their own cars,	由于大多数人没有自己的车,
143	people are dependent on public transport.	人们依赖公共交通。
144	The big buses are owned by the city administration,	大公交车归市政府所有
145	and the minibuses are run by individuals who provide transportation service.	小型客车由提供交通服务的个人经营。
146	The Chinese automaker Nanjing Golden Dragon Bus Company	中国汽车制造商南京金龙巴士公司
147	supplies the parts to BKG that it assembles together.	为BKG提供组装部件。
148	At first, Chinese engineers ran the floor alongside Ethiopian workers.	起初,中国工程师与埃塞俄比亚工人一起跑到地板上.
149	That changed fast.	变化很快
150	When I went for the second time, Ethiopian employees were fully trained by the Chinese,	我第二次去的时候,埃塞俄比亚的员工 完全由中国人训练
151	and now they took over every process by themselves.	现在他们独自接管了每个过程
152	Many BKG minibuses go to private drivers and companies,	许多BKG小巴去私人司机和公司,
153	but its biggest single buyer?	但它最大的单一买家?
154	The city itself.	城内本身.
155	Ethiopia's ambitions have grown fast.	埃塞俄比亚的野心迅速增长。
156	In its 2025 climate plan, it set a goal of reaching 500,000 electric vehicles	在其2025年气候计划中,它设定了一项达到50万辆电动车辆的目标。
157	and over 2,000 charging stations by 2033.	到2033年还有2000多个充电站。
158	The question now is whether it can make EVs affordable to new waves of buyers.	现在的问题是,它是否能够使新买家买得起EV。
159	The real sticking point for most Ethiopians to still buy electric vehicles is the sticker price.	大多数埃塞俄比亚人购买电动车辆的真正关键是贴纸价格。
160	Electric vehicles are still many, many times more than the average salary of an Ethiopian.	电动车辆仍然很多,是埃塞俄比亚人平均工资的两倍。
161	A small EV here, like the BYD Seagull, runs about US$23,000.	这里的一家小型EV,像BYD海鸥,运行约23,000美元.
162	Average yearly income per person is less than US$1,000.	人均年收入不足1,000美元。
163	Which is why Ethiopia has one of the world's highest EV shares	这就是为什么埃塞俄比亚拥有世界最高的EV股份之一
164	and one of its lowest rates of car ownership.	也是汽车拥有率最低的国家之一
165	13 people out of 1,000 own cars.	自有车1000辆中13人.
166	So this is way below the African average, which is 73 of the 1,000 people.	因此,这远低于非洲平均水平, 即1 000人中的73人。
167	There's also a supply problem.	也有供应问题.
168	Ethiopia wants to kickstart a car industry, a tall order.	埃塞俄比亚希望启动汽车业,
169	This BKG plant builds about one vehicle a day.	这个BKG工厂每天大约建造一辆车.
170	BKG is already working on another plant, this one for passenger cars, to begin assembly in 2027.	BKG已经在另一个工厂工作了,这个工厂是供客车使用的,将于2027年开始组装.
171	It's still a long way from Ethiopia's target.	距离埃塞俄比亚的目标仍然很远.
172	But the biggest obstacle may have nothing to do with factories.	但最大的障碍可能与工厂无关.
173	In September 2026, fighting broke out in Ethiopia's northern Tigray region.	2026年9月,埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷地区爆发战斗.
174	Almost four years after a peace deal was signed to end a deadly civil war between the government	在和约签订四年后 结束了政府之间的致命内战
175	and the Tigray People's Liberation Front.	以及提格雷人民解放阵线。
176	Ethiopia accused Eritrea, Egypt and Sudan of supporting the rebels.	埃塞俄比亚指责厄立特里亚,埃及和苏丹支持叛军.
177	All three deny it.	三者皆否认.
178	Ethiopia has grown increasingly isolated in the region.	埃塞俄比亚在该地区日益孤立。
179	Partly because of the grand Ethiopian Renaissance down, which Egypt and Sudan opposed.	部分原因是埃塞俄比亚文艺复兴大败,埃及和苏丹反对.
180	Ethiopia's prime minister has also made access to the Red Sea a national priority.	埃塞俄比亚总理也将进入红海作为国家优先事项。
181	Fueling speculation about the future of Eritrea's port of Assab.	煽动对厄立特里亚阿萨布港未来的猜测.
182	Instability at home and in the Middle East makes the move away from oil even more urgent.	国内和中东的不稳定使摆脱石油的举动更加紧迫。
183	The battle for Hormuz intensifies, sending energy prices higher across the board.	霍尔木兹战役激化,使能源价格全面上涨.
184	The price of crude oil shot to its highest level since 2023.	原油价格创下2023年以来最高水平.
185	This is a volatile market.	这是一个不稳定的市场。
186	The prices of oil have shot up 40 and 50 percent.	油价上涨了40%和50%。
187	What we can see is that the number of electric vehicles sold in developing countries in general	我们可以看到,在发展中国家出售的电动车辆数量一般是:
188	has been rising much more quickly than before the Iran war started.	伊朗战争开始前,
189	Ethiopia isn't slowing down.	埃塞俄比亚没有减速。
190	Another hydropower plant is already under construction due by the end of the decade.	到本十年结束时,另一个水电站已经在建造中。
191	And in 2027, Ethiopia will host the UN climate summit in Addis Ababa.	埃塞俄比亚将于2027年在亚的斯亚贝巴主办联合国气候峰会。
192	The government is excited to show to the world what an electric vehicle transition can look like	政府很兴奋地向世界展示 电动车辆的转变会是什么样子
193	from the perspective of a developing country.	从发展中国家的角度来看。
194	This national experiment doesn't exactly copy paste.	这个国家实验并没有完全复制粘贴.
195	Most countries don't have a river like the Nile.	大多数国家没有尼罗河这样的河流.
196	Or a car market small enough to turn this quickly.	或者汽车市场小到可以迅速扭转局面
197	Or a fuel crisis big enough to force the question.	或者燃料危机 足以迫使问题。
198	But it does settle one argument.	但这确实解决了一个争论。
199	The question was never really whether a country could do this fast.	问题从来不是一个国家是否能够做到这一点。
200	It was whether one would.	是否该如此
201	Rich countries have spent two decades planning for a future they keep postponing.	富国花了20年时间规划它们不断推迟的未来。
202	Ethiopia couldn't afford to wait.	埃塞俄比亚无力等待。
203	So it didn't.	所以它没有。

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