马斯克豪掷近5亿美元押选情，中期选举翻车：特斯拉与Space
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | So imagine spending like nearly half a billion dollars of your own money. | 所以想象一下,你花费了差不多5亿美金自己的钱。 |
| 0:05 | You do this just to secure a friendly government. | 你这样做只是为了确保一个友好的政府。 |
| 0:08 | Right. | 对 |
| 0:08 | A massive financial bet. | 一个巨大的金融赌注。 |
| 0:09 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 0:09 | A huge bet to protect your massive businesses. | 下个大赌注来保护你的大生意 |
| 0:12 | But then you wake up the morning after the election and your political rivals have | 但选举结束后早上你醒来 你的政治对手已经 |
| 0:17 | actually taken power. | 实际夺权. |
| 0:18 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 0:19 | That is a rough morning. | 这是一个艰难的早晨。 |
展开字幕全文（524 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | So imagine spending like nearly half a billion dollars of your own money. | 所以想象一下,你花费了差不多5亿美金自己的钱。 |
| 2 | You do this just to secure a friendly government. | 你这样做只是为了确保一个友好的政府。 |
| 3 | Right. | 对 |
| 4 | A massive financial bet. | 一个巨大的金融赌注。 |
| 5 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 6 | A huge bet to protect your massive businesses. | 下个大赌注来保护你的大生意 |
| 7 | But then you wake up the morning after the election and your political rivals have | 但选举结束后早上你醒来 你的政治对手已经 |
| 8 | actually taken power. | 实际夺权. |
| 9 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 10 | That is a rough morning. | 这是一个艰难的早晨。 |
| 11 | It gets worse. | 情况越来越糟了 |
| 12 | Then you watch billions of dollars just vanish from your company's | 然后,你看着数十亿美元 刚刚从你的公司消失 |
| 13 | stock value. | 库存价值。 |
| 14 | This is all before breakfast. | 这都是早餐前的事 |
| 15 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 16 | The market reaction is always instant. | 市场的反应总是即时的。 |
| 17 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 18 | Well, welcome to our deep dive, because today we are looking at exactly | 欢迎来到我们的深度潜水 因为今天我们正看着 |
| 19 | that scenario. | 那场景 |
| 20 | We are exploring what happens to Elon Musk's massive business | 我们正在探索伊隆·穆斯克的大规模生意会怎样 |
| 21 | empire after the United States midterm elections. | 美国中期选举后的帝国. |
| 22 | Right. | 对 |
| 23 | The November 2026 elections. | 2026年11月大选. |
| 24 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 25 | The political map changed completely overnight. | 政治地图一夜之间就完全改变了。 |
| 26 | It really did. | 痷 |
| 27 | And that sudden change is sending shockwaves through some of the | 突然的改变正在把冲击波传到一些 |
| 28 | world's most valuable companies. | 世界最有价值的公司。 |
| 29 | You know, we are talking about Tesla, SpaceX and more. | 我们说的是特斯拉,SpaceX等等 |
| 30 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 31 | And all of our insights today come from a very detailed report. | 我们今天的所有见解都来自一份非常详细的报告。 |
| 32 | It was published in November 2026 by the South China Morning Post. | 2026年11月由"南华早报"出版. |
| 33 | It is a fascinating read. | 读起来很迷人 |
| 34 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 35 | So our mission today is to help you understand this huge shift. | 所以我们今天的任务是帮助你理解这个巨大的转变。 |
| 36 | We want to show you how a sudden change in political power can impact global | 我们想告诉你 政治权力的突然改变 会如何影响全球 |
| 37 | businesses. | 企业。 |
| 38 | Right. | 对 |
| 39 | Because everything is connected. | 因为一切都是相连的。 |
| 40 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 41 | We will look at massive government contracts and we will also | 我们将研究大规模政府合同,我们也将 |
| 42 | explore his deep corporate ties to China. | 探索他与中国的深厚企业联系. |
| 43 | The stakes are incredibly high here. | 赌注很高 |
| 44 | I mean, we are looking at a business network that touches almost every part of | 我的意思是,我们正在寻找一个商业网络 触及几乎每一个部分 |
| 45 | modern life. | 现代生活。 |
| 46 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 47 | Global transportation, space travel and artificial intelligence. | 全球交通,太空旅行和人工智能. |
| 48 | So to help you picture this situation, imagine a massive fast moving ship on the | 因此,为了帮助你想象这种情况, 想象一艘巨大的快速移动的飞船在 |
| 49 | {\fn华文楷体\fs16\1cHE0E0E0}海洋 | |
| 50 | This ship represents his whole business empire. | 这艘船代表了他的整个商业帝国. |
| 51 | Right. | 对 |
| 52 | I like this analogy. | 我喜欢这个类比。 |
| 53 | Right. | 对 |
| 54 | So its cargo includes electric cars, space rockets and advanced computer | 因此,它的货物包括电动汽车,太空火箭和高级计算机 |
| 55 | systems. | 系统。 |
| 56 | And for a long time, the wind was pushing the ship forward. | 而久之,风将舟推进. |
| 57 | Right. | 对 |
| 58 | Things were going well. | 事情进展顺利 |
| 59 | But suddenly the ship hits a brutal headwind. | 但突然,飞船撞上了一个残酷的头风. |
| 60 | The weather changes completely. | 天气完全变了 |
| 61 | The November elections. | 11月选举. |
| 62 | Yes. | 对 |
| 63 | Now the crew is scrambling. | 现在,船员们正在挤压。 |
| 64 | They have to adjust the sails just to keep from crashing. | 他们必须调整风帆 以免坠毁 |
| 65 | Right. | 对 |
| 66 | That brutal headwind. | 那个残忍的头风。 |
| 67 | The environment for these businesses has suddenly become very hostile. | 这些企业的环境突然变得非常敌对. |
| 68 | I mean, the rules of the game are changing. | 我的意思是,游戏的规则正在改变。 |
| 69 | They really are. | 他们真的是。 |
| 70 | And we need to understand why this headwind started blowing so hard. | 我们需要明白为什么这个头风 开始如此猛烈的吹。 |
| 71 | So let's look at the immediate results of those recent elections. | 因此,让我们看看最近选举的直接结果。 |
| 72 | The numbers involved here are just staggering. | 这里的数字太惊人了 |
| 73 | Oh, totally. | 哦,绝对的。 |
| 74 | Musk spent a record breaking $474 million. | 穆斯克花了4.74亿美元打破纪录. |
| 75 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 76 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 77 | He gave this money to Republican political groups to help them win. | 他把这笔钱给了共和党政治团体,帮助他们获胜. |
| 78 | So he made a massive financial bet. | 所以他做了一个巨大的金融赌注。 |
| 79 | He clearly wanted to keep the political environment in Washington friendly. | 他显然希望保持华盛顿的政治环境友好. |
| 80 | You know, he wanted low regulation. | 你知道,他想要低监管。 |
| 81 | But, well, the plan failed. | 但计划失败了 |
| 82 | It did. | 没错 |
| 83 | The Democrats recaptured control of the U.S. | 民主党夺回对美国的控制. |
| 84 | Congress. | 国会. |
| 85 | The power in the legislative branch completely flipped. | 立法部门的权力完全翻转。 |
| 86 | And the financial markets saw this shift and reacted instantly. | 金融市场看到这种转变,立即作出反应。 |
| 87 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 88 | When the stock market opened, SpaceX shares fell by 4 percent. | 股市开放后,SpaceX股票下跌4%. |
| 89 | Ouch. | 哎哟 |
| 90 | And Tesla shares dropped by 5 percent. | 而特斯拉的股份下降了5%. |
| 91 | Investors clearly saw trouble ahead. | 投资者清楚地看到了前面的麻烦。 |
| 92 | Right. | 对 |
| 93 | And didn't Musk try to joke about it? | 穆斯克没开玩笑吗? |
| 94 | He did. | 没错 |
| 95 | He actually tried to make light of the situation on social media. | 他实际上试图在社交媒体上说明情况. |
| 96 | He posted a joke saying his election interfering space lasers failed this time. | 他张贴了一个笑话,说他的当选 干扰太空激光这次失败。 |
| 97 | Well, humor is one way to handle it. | 嗯,幽默是处理它的方法之一。 |
| 98 | But the reality behind the scenes is very serious. | 但幕后现实非常严重. |
| 99 | Definitely. | 当然 |
| 100 | Wall Street investors do not like political uncertainty. | 华尔街投资者不喜欢政治不确定性. |
| 101 | And right now, there is a massive amount of money on the line. | 而现在,线上有大量的资金。 |
| 102 | Yeah, there really is. | 是的,确实有。 |
| 103 | I mean, we have to look at the recent past to understand this. | 我的意思是,我们必须看看 最近的过去来理解这一点。 |
| 104 | Under the second administration of U.S. | 隶属于美国第二行政. |
| 105 | President Donald Trump, these companies grew aggressively. | 唐纳德·特朗普总统,这些公司发展激烈. |
| 106 | They did. | 没错 |
| 107 | And that growth was heavily fueled by the government. | 而这一增长在很大程度上是由政府推动的。 |
| 108 | Let's talk about the Department of Government Efficiency. | 谈政务效率部. |
| 109 | Right. | 对 |
| 110 | That is a key piece of the puzzle. | 这是谜题的关键部分。 |
| 111 | Just to explain that term simply, this was a special government group designed | 仅仅为了解释这个词, 这是一个特殊的政府团体设计 |
| 112 | to cut federal spending. | 削减联邦开支。 |
| 113 | And Musk actually led this group. | 而穆斯克实际上领导了这个团体. |
| 114 | He held this position until he left in May 2025. | 他担任这一职务直到2025年5月离开. |
| 115 | And, you know, his time there is now a major focus. | 而且,你知道,他的时间 现在有一个主要焦点。 |
| 116 | The report highlights a stunning figure. | 报告突出了一个惊人的数字。 |
| 117 | What is the figure? | 数字是多少? |
| 118 | Well, since he left that government post in May 2025, his companies | 自从他2025年5月离开政府后 他的公司 |
| 119 | won at least 10 billion dollars in new federal deals. | 赢得至少100亿美元 新联邦交易。 |
| 120 | Wait, 10 billion dollars? | 等等,100亿美元? |
| 121 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 122 | In just over a year? | 刚过一年? |
| 123 | That is a mountain of taxpayer money. | 这是一山纳税人的钱。 |
| 124 | How exactly is that money being spent? | 这笔钱是怎样花的? |
| 125 | A huge portion goes to space defense. | 很大一部分用于太空防御。 |
| 126 | Like in May alone, SpaceX won two contracts with the U.S. | 和仅在5月一样,SpaceX赢得了与美国的两个合同. |
| 127 | Space Force. | 航天部队. |
| 128 | OK. | 摆 |
| 129 | And these deals are worth a combined six point four or five billion dollars. | 这些交易的价值是六点四或五十亿美元。 |
| 130 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 131 | Yeah, they are building advanced satellites. | 他们正在建造先进的卫星 |
| 132 | These satellites are designed to track threats in the air. | 这些卫星旨在追踪空中的威胁。 |
| 133 | So we are talking about critical national security infrastructure. | 因此,我们谈的是关键的国家安全基础设施。 |
| 134 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 135 | But it's not just rockets, though. | 但它不只是火箭,虽然。 |
| 136 | Right. | 对 |
| 137 | His artificial intelligence company, XAI, is also getting government money. | 他的人工智能公司XAI也在获得政府资金. |
| 138 | Yes, they secured a nearly 200 million dollar deal with the Department of Defense. | 是的,他们得到了一个近2亿美元的交易 国防部。 |
| 139 | And this happened in July 2025. | 这发生在2025年7月。 |
| 140 | So this creates a very complicated picture for the new Congress, right? | 这为新国会创造了一个非常复杂的局面,对吧? |
| 141 | Oh, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 142 | Washington is now politically divided. | 华盛顿现在在政治上分裂. |
| 143 | And the new Congress wants to closely investigate these massive defense contracts. | 而新国会希望仔细调查这些大规模国防合同. |
| 144 | Because they want to know exactly how they were awarded. | 因为他们想知道他们是如何被授予的 |
| 145 | Right. | 对 |
| 146 | And they are also looking closely at his past government role. | 他们还密切关注他过去政府的作用。 |
| 147 | You mean his time at the Department of Government Efficiency? | 你是说他在政府效率部的时间? |
| 148 | Yes, they are specifically looking for any possible misuse of government data. | 是的,他们正在专门寻找任何可能滥用政府数据的情况。 |
| 149 | Ah, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 150 | Because think about it. | 因为想一想 |
| 151 | When you run a group that cuts government costs, you see everything. | 当你经营一个削减政府成本的团体时, 你可以看到一切。 |
| 152 | Yeah, that makes sense. | 是啊,这是有道理的。 |
| 153 | You see how agencies work. | 你看看机构的工作方式 |
| 154 | You see what competitors are doing. | 你看竞争对手在做什么。 |
| 155 | Lawmakers want to know if that inside information helped his private companies | 立法者想知道 内部信息是否帮助了他的私人公司 |
| 156 | win those 10 billion dollar deals. | 赢得了100亿美元的交易。 |
| 157 | Right. | 对 |
| 158 | Now, this brings up an important question. | 现在,这提出了一个重要问题。 |
| 159 | I want to look at this strictly from a neutral angle, just based on the report. | 我想严格地从中立的角度来看待这个问题,仅仅根据报告。 |
| 160 | OK, sure. | 好吧,当然。 |
| 161 | Are these upcoming investigations just political payback? | 这些即将进行的调查是否只是政治报复? |
| 162 | I mean, he spent four hundred seventy four million dollars | 我是说 他花了四亿七千四百万 |
| 163 | trying to defeat these politicians. | 试图打败这些政客。 |
| 164 | Right. | 对 |
| 165 | It is easy to assume they are just angry. | 很容易假设他们只是生气。 |
| 166 | Or is Congress looking at genuine conflicts of interest? | 还是国会在考虑真正的利益冲突? |
| 167 | It's a very fair question. | 这是一个非常公平的问题。 |
| 168 | But it is crucial to separate the politics from the business reality here. | 但将政治与这里的商业现实分开至关重要。 |
| 169 | We have to look strictly at the facts in the report. | 我们必须严格审查报告中的事实。 |
| 170 | Right. | 对 |
| 171 | What does the report say? | 报告怎么说? |
| 172 | It outlines that a company holding six point four or five billion dollars | 它概述了一家持有六点四或五十亿美元的公司 |
| 173 | in defense contracts naturally requires intense government oversight. | 在国防合同中,政府自然需要严密的监督。 |
| 174 | That makes total sense. | 这是完全合理的。 |
| 175 | And when the leader of that company also had a role inside the government, | 而当公司的领导者 也在政府内部发挥作用时 |
| 176 | it creates a textbook reason for an investigation. | 它创造了一个教科书 调查的理由。 |
| 177 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 178 | We do not know the personal feelings of the lawmakers, but the factual reality | 我们并不了解立法者的个人感情,而是了解事实 |
| 179 | is that the new Congress has the legal power to review these deals | 新国会有审查这些交易的法律权力 |
| 180 | and they plan to use it. | 他们打算使用它。 |
| 181 | And because Congress is pulling out the magnifying glass, | 而且因为国会正在拿出放大镜 |
| 182 | they are uncovering an even bigger problem. | 他们发现一个更大的问题。 |
| 183 | Oh, definitely. | 当然 |
| 184 | This leads us straight into a major complication regarding global security. | 这使我们直接陷入全球安全的重大复杂局面。 |
| 185 | The new Congress is running into a wall. | 新国会撞墙了. |
| 186 | And that wall is built on Musk's deep reliance on China. | 那堵墙是建立在穆斯克对中国的深深依赖之上的. |
| 187 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 188 | The report calls this the Shanghai question. | 报告将此称为上海问题. |
| 189 | It is a perfect name for the problem. | 这是问题的一个完美名称。 |
| 190 | You really cannot separate Tesla's success from the country of China. | 你真的不能把特斯拉的成功 和中国国家分开 |
| 191 | No, you can't. | 不,你无法。 |
| 192 | Let's look at the numbers for the Shanghai Gigafactory. | 央视上海动车组数字. |
| 193 | This is Tesla's massive car factory in China. | 这是特斯拉在中国的大型汽车工厂. |
| 194 | The scale of it is incredible. | 其规模不可思议. |
| 195 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 196 | Last year, this single factory produced more than half | 去年这家工厂生产了一半以上 |
| 197 | of all the cars Tesla delivered worldwide. | 特斯拉公司在世界各地运送的所有汽车。 |
| 198 | Think about that. | 考虑一下 |
| 199 | More than half of their entire global product comes from one Chinese facility. | 其全球产品一半以上来自一个中国设施。 |
| 200 | It is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 201 | And Tesla is deeply woven into the Chinese industrial system. | 而特斯拉被深深地编织入中国工业体系. |
| 202 | I mean, it is not just about assembling cars. | 我的意思是,它不只是 组装汽车。 |
| 203 | Right. | 对 |
| 204 | Tesla needs Chinese suppliers for its energy batteries. | 特斯拉的能源电池需要中国供应商. |
| 205 | The whole supply chain is completely dependent on those local factories. | 整个供应链完全依赖于当地的工厂。 |
| 206 | And the report mentions even more reliance. | 报告提到更多的依赖。 |
| 207 | Tesla needs around three billion dollars of Chinese solar manufacturing equipment. | 特斯拉需要约30亿美元的中国太阳能制造设备. |
| 208 | They need this to support their business back in the United States. | 他们需要这个来支持他们在美国的业务。 |
| 209 | And they also need China for their future products. | 他们的未来产品也需要中国。 |
| 210 | You are talking about the Optimus robot. | 你在说"擎天柱"机器人 |
| 211 | Yes. | 对 |
| 212 | This is Tesla's planned humanoid robot. | 这是特斯拉计划的人造机器人. |
| 213 | Right. | 对 |
| 214 | To build this advanced machine, Tesla engineers actually traveled to China. | 为了建造这台先进的机器,特斯拉工程师实际上前往了中国. |
| 215 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 216 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 217 | Yeah, they were looking for Chinese factories | 对,他们在找中国工厂 |
| 218 | that could manufacture the complex parts needed for the robot. | 可以制造机器人所需的复杂部件 |
| 219 | So Tesla's present and future are heavily tied to China. | 因此特斯拉的现在和未来与中国关系严重. |
| 220 | Now, add this massive complication. | 现在,加上这个巨大的复杂。 |
| 221 | In October, Musk dropped a major hint. | 10月,穆斯克放弃了一个重大暗示. |
| 222 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 223 | He suggested that special committees were looking into merging | 他建议特别委员会考虑合并 |
| 224 | Tesla and SpaceX. | 特斯拉与SpaceX. (原始内容存档于2019-09-12). |
| 225 | And a merger between those two companies creates an absolute nightmare | 这两家公司的合并 造成了绝对的噩梦 |
| 226 | for lawmakers in Washington. | 华盛顿的立法者。 |
| 227 | Totally. | 当然 |
| 228 | I want to give you, the listener, an analogy to explain why this is a nightmare. | 我想给你一个比喻 来解释为什么这是噩梦 |
| 229 | OK, let's hear it. | 好吧,让我们听听。 |
| 230 | Imagine trying to build a top secret military base, | 想象一下试图建立一个绝密的军事基地, |
| 231 | but you decide to build it inside a very busy public shopping mall. | 但你决定在一个繁忙的公共购物中心里建造它 |
| 232 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 233 | That paints a very clear picture of the risk. | 这描绘了非常清楚的风险。 |
| 234 | Right. | 对 |
| 235 | In this analogy, Tesla in China is the shopping mall. | 在这个类比中,中国的特斯拉是购物中心. |
| 236 | It is a massive open system. | 这是一个巨大的开放系统。 |
| 237 | Thousands of suppliers are coming and going. | 成千上万的供应商来来去去。 |
| 238 | Parts are moving across borders all day. | 零星地穿越边界 |
| 239 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 240 | 然后,你得到了SpaceX。 | |
| 241 | This is the top secret military base. | 这里是最高机密的军事基地 |
| 242 | It holds the most advanced aerospace technology in the United States. | 它拥有美国最先进的航空航天技术. |
| 243 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 244 | So how can you possibly keep the military secrets safe | 那你怎么能保守军事机密 |
| 245 | when the two worlds are mixed together? | 当两个世界混合的时候, |
| 246 | If they merge, the secrets are basically walking through the shopping mall. | 如果它们合并, 秘密基本上走过购物中心。 |
| 247 | That is exactly how Congress views the situation. | 这正是国会对局势的看法。 |
| 248 | If you merge the companies, they share computer networks. | 如果你把公司合并, 他们共享计算机网络。 |
| 249 | They share leadership teams. | 他们共享领导团队. |
| 250 | Right. | 对 |
| 251 | They might even share software engineers. | 他们甚至可能分享软件工程师。 |
| 252 | Professor Christopher Tang from UCLA points this out in the report. | 加州大学洛杉矶分校的克里斯托弗·唐教授在报告中指出了这一点. |
| 253 | What does he say? | 他说什么? |
| 254 | He says this potential merger makes Shanghai a major security issue. | 他说,这次潜在的兼并使得上海成为一个重大的安全问题. |
| 255 | Lawmakers will fear that Chinese suppliers could secretly gain access | 立法者们会担心中国供应商会秘密进入 |
| 256 | to defense technology. | 防御技术。 |
| 257 | That is a huge risk. | 这是一个巨大的风险。 |
| 258 | Let's break down a specific quote from Professor Tang in the report. | 详解报告中唐教授的具体引文. |
| 259 | OK. | 摆 |
| 260 | He said Washington controls contracts and clearances, | 他说华盛顿控制合同和许可 |
| 261 | while Beijing controls inputs, cost and speed. | 而北京则控制投入,成本和速度. |
| 262 | How should we understand this balance of power? | 我们如何理解这种力量平衡? |
| 263 | It is a great summary, the problem. | 这是一个很好的总结,问题。 |
| 264 | Washington controls contracts and clearances means | 华盛顿控制合同和许可意味着 |
| 265 | the U.S. government holds the checkbook. | 美国政府拿着支票簿 |
| 266 | OK, so they control the money. | 好吧,所以他们控制了钱。 |
| 267 | Yes. | 对 |
| 268 | They decide who gets the billion dollar deals. | 他们决定谁得到10亿美元的交易。 |
| 269 | They decide who gets security clearances to see military secrets. | 他们决定谁得到安全许可 才能看到军事机密 |
| 270 | They have the legal power to say yes or no. | 他们在法律上有权说是或否。 |
| 271 | In the second half of the quote, Beijing controls inputs, cost and speed. | 引文后半部分,北京控制投入,成本和速度. |
| 272 | This means China controls the physical reality of building things. | 这意味着中国控制着建筑事物的实际现实. |
| 273 | Inputs are the raw materials in the factory parts. | 投入是工厂零件中的原材料. |
| 274 | OK. | 摆 |
| 275 | China has built an industrial system that is incredibly fast. | 中国已经建立起了一个非常迅速的工业体系。 |
| 276 | They can produce complex technology for a fraction of the cost | 他们可以生产复杂技术 成本的一小部分 |
| 277 | you would pay at America. | 你会付美国。 |
| 278 | Right, which makes them very attractive to a business. | 对,这让他们对企业很有吸引力 |
| 279 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 280 | So Congress can pass all the laws they want, | 所以国会可以通过他们想要的一切法律, |
| 281 | but they cannot magically create a supply chain | 但他们不能神奇地创造供应链 |
| 282 | that is as fast and cheap as China's. | 这跟中国一样快又便宜 |
| 283 | So Congress can threaten to take away the defense contracts. | 这样国会就可以威胁要夺去国防合同. |
| 284 | Yes. | 对 |
| 285 | But if they force Tesla to leave China, the car company | 但是如果他们强迫特斯拉离开中国 汽车公司 |
| 286 | might not survive the financial hit. | 可能无法幸存 财政打击。 |
| 287 | It is a massive trap. | 这是一个巨大的陷阱。 |
| 288 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 289 | Congress wants to protect sensitive aerospace technology | 国会想保护敏感的航空航天技术 |
| 290 | from leaking into a Chinese supply network. | 从泄露到一个中国供应网。 |
| 291 | Of course. | 当然 |
| 292 | But they also know they cannot easily untangle the two companies | 但是他们也知道他们不能轻易解开两家公司的麻烦 |
| 293 | without causing huge economic damage. | 而不造成巨大的经济损失。 |
| 294 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 295 | The pressure from Washington is intense and the security questions in China | 华盛顿的压力很大 中国的安全问题 |
| 296 | are severe. | 严重。 |
| 297 | Right. | 对 |
| 298 | But the struggle is also happening in Musk's own backyard. | 但斗争也在穆斯克自己的后院发生. |
| 299 | Yes, in Texas, because Washington is threatening his federal deals. | 是的,在德克萨斯州, 因为华盛顿威胁他的联邦交易。 |
| 300 | His ability to expand independently becomes really crucial. | 他独立扩张的能力变得非常关键. |
| 301 | So let's look at the unexpected roadblocks | 我们来看看出乎意料的路障 |
| 302 | he is facing in his home base of Texas. | 他在德克萨斯州的基地面对他 |
| 303 | Texas is the operational heart of his entire empire now. | 德克萨斯州现在是整个帝国的中心 |
| 304 | He moved his headquarters there. | 他把总部搬到那里去了 |
| 305 | Right. | 对 |
| 306 | His biggest factories are there. | 他最大的工厂在那里。 |
| 307 | And he heavily invested in the state's politics. | 并大量投入国家政治. |
| 308 | The report shows he spent two hundred twenty four million dollars | 报告显示他花了两亿二千四百万 |
| 309 | on political races in Texas alone. | 德克萨斯州的政治种族 |
| 310 | It is a lot of money. | 这是很多钱。 |
| 311 | It is. | 没错 |
| 312 | He wanted to ensure the local government remained completely supportive | 他想确保当地政府继续全力支持 |
| 313 | of his massive projects, but that plan failed. | 但是这个计划失败了 |
| 314 | It did. | 没错 |
| 315 | The Republican governor, Greg Abbott, lost his election. | 共和党州长格雷格·阿博特失选. |
| 316 | Right. | 对 |
| 317 | A Democrat named Gina Hinojosa defeated him. | 一个名叫吉娜·伊诺霍萨的民主党人击败了他. |
| 318 | And this local political earthquake threatens Musk's biggest plans for the future. | 而这次地方政治地震威胁到穆斯克对未来的最大计划. |
| 319 | Yeah, those plans are all about artificial intelligence. | 是的,这些计划都是关于人工智能的 |
| 320 | So how did Hinojosa win against such massive financial backing? | 那么伊诺霍萨如何战胜如此庞大的财政支持? |
| 321 | She listened to the daily struggles of regular people. | 她听了普通人的日常斗争. |
| 322 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 323 | Well, the report says she tapped into deep local anger over two simple things. | 报告说她因为两件简单的事情 惹了地方的愤怒 |
| 324 | Electricity bills and water usage. | 电费和用水。 |
| 325 | OK. How does that connect to artificial intelligence? | 摆 这和人工智能有什么联系? |
| 326 | To understand this anger, you need to know how artificial intelligence | 要了解这种愤怒,你需要知道 人工智能 |
| 327 | works in the physical world. | 工作在物理世界。 |
| 328 | Right. | 对 |
| 329 | AI does not just live magically in the cloud. | AI不只是神奇地生活在云中。 |
| 330 | It requires massive physical buildings called data centers. | 它需要大型的物理建筑,称为数据中心. |
| 331 | OK. | 摆 |
| 332 | And inside these buildings, thousands of powerful computers run constantly. | 在这些建筑内部, 成千上万的强大的计算机不断运行。 |
| 333 | They process billions of calculations every single second. | 他们每秒都会处理数十亿的计算. |
| 334 | And all of those computers use an incredible amount of electricity. | 所有这些电脑都使用了惊人的电量。 |
| 335 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 336 | And running them 24 hours a day generates a massive amount of extreme heat. | 每天24小时运行它们 会产生大量的极端热量 |
| 337 | Right. | 对 |
| 338 | So they need to be cooled down. | 所以他们需要冷静下来。 |
| 339 | Yes. | 对 |
| 340 | OK. To stop the computers from literally melting, | 摆 为了阻止计算机在字面上融化 |
| 341 | you need massive cooling systems. | 你需要巨大的冷却系统。 |
| 342 | And these cooling systems often require millions of gallons of fresh water. | 而这些冷却系统往往需要数百万加仑的淡水. |
| 343 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 344 | So you have these huge facilities | 所以你有这些巨大的设施 |
| 345 | draining the local power grid and using up the local water supply. | 排水当地电网,利用当地供水. |
| 346 | So regular citizens in Texas started seeing their electricity bill surge. | 所以德克萨斯的普通市民开始看到他们的电费激增. |
| 347 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 348 | And they naturally worried about having enough water for their homes. | 他们自然担心自己家有足够的水. |
| 349 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 350 | So Gina Hinojosa promised to take action. | 于是吉娜·伊诺霍萨答应采取行动. |
| 351 | She promised to freeze approvals for any new data centers in the state. | 她承诺冻结对州内任何新数据中心的批准. |
| 352 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 353 | Yes. | 对 |
| 354 | Just completely freeze them. | 只是完全冻结他们。 |
| 355 | Yes. | 对 |
| 356 | She wants to stop new construction | 她想停止新的建筑建设 |
| 357 | until strict environmental and energy rules are created. | 直到建立严格的环境和能源规则。 |
| 358 | This policy is a direct hit on SpaceX's future. | 这一政策直接打击了SpaceX的未来. |
| 359 | It is a major roadblock. | 这是一个重大路障。 |
| 360 | The report notes that this freeze will not shut down current operations. | 报告指出,冻结不会关闭目前的业务。 |
| 361 | You know, the existing car factories will keep running. | 你知道,现有的汽车工厂 会继续运行。 |
| 362 | Right. | 对 |
| 363 | But a business empire needs to grow. | 但商业帝国需要成长. |
| 364 | And this freeze stops their most important path for growth. | 而这种冻结阻止了它们最重要的增长之路. |
| 365 | Because SpaceX had a massive plan for growth. | 因为SpaceX有一个巨大的增长计划. |
| 366 | They actually shared this plan with investors before a big financial event in June. | 他们在6月的大型金融活动前, 与投资者分享了这个计划。 |
| 367 | What was the plan? | 计划是什么? |
| 368 | They said providing AI computing services was a critical part of their future. | 他们说,提供AI计算服务是他们未来的一个关键部分. |
| 369 | They describe this AI computing as a twenty eight point five | 他们把人工智能计算描述为28点5分 |
| 370 | trillion dollar addressable market. | 万亿美元可解决的市场。 |
| 371 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 372 | Twenty eight point five trillion. | 285万亿 |
| 373 | Yes. | 对 |
| 374 | And just to clarify, that term addressable market | 为了澄清,这个术语可以解决市场 |
| 375 | just means the total possible amount of money | 只是意味着可能的钱总额 |
| 376 | customers worldwide will spend on AI computing. | 全世界的客户都会花在人工智能计算上。 |
| 377 | Oh, OK. | 哦,没事。 |
| 378 | So it is a huge market. | 所以这是一个巨大的市场。 |
| 379 | Yes. | 对 |
| 380 | And SpaceX wants to capture a huge piece of that pie. | SpaceX想要抓一个大块的馅饼 |
| 381 | But to capture that money, they have to build huge new data centers. | 但是为了抓住这笔钱, 他们必须建立巨大的新数据中心。 |
| 382 | Right. | 对 |
| 383 | They need to plug thousands of new computers into the Texas power grid. | 他们需要将数千台新计算机插入德州电网. |
| 384 | And now the new governor is holding up a stop sign. | 而现在新州长正在举起停机牌. |
| 385 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 386 | So this means that even the richest man in the world | 这就是说,即使是世界上最富有的人 |
| 387 | cannot just buy all the power and water he wants if the local people vote no. | 如果当地人民投票反对, |
| 388 | It proves that local politics can override global business plans. | 它证明,地方政治可以压倒全球业务计划。 |
| 389 | That is fascinating. | 这是令人着迷的。 |
| 390 | And the report points out that this is a national trend. | 报告指出这是一个全国性的趋势。 |
| 391 | Communities across the whole country are starting to fight back | 全国各社区开始反击 |
| 392 | against these massive AI data centers. | 对抗这些庞大的AI数据中心. |
| 393 | So it is not just Texas. | 所以不只是德克萨斯州 |
| 394 | No. | 没有 |
| 395 | You can have billions of dollars in federal contracts. | 你可以有数十亿美元 的联邦合同。 |
| 396 | But if you cannot get a permit to use the local water, | 但是如果你不能获得使用当地水的许可, |
| 397 | you simply cannot run your business. | 你根本不能经营你的生意。 |
| 398 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 399 | So he is facing roadblocks in Washington, China and Texas. | 因此他在华盛顿,中国和德克萨斯州面临路障. |
| 400 | Yes. | 对 |
| 401 | This mounting pressure is also changing his position on the world stage. | 这种越来越大的压力也改变了他在世界舞台上的立场。 |
| 402 | His personal influence as a global diplomat is shrinking fast. | 他作为全球外交官的个人影响力正在迅速缩小. |
| 403 | The report actually dedicates a whole section to this. | 报告实际上专门用一整节来论述这个问题。 |
| 404 | They call it the diminishing diplomat. | 他们称它为"不断减少的外交官". |
| 405 | I saw that. | 我看见了 |
| 406 | Because for a long time, Musk held a very unique and powerful position. | 因为长久以来,穆斯克一直占据着非常独特和强大的地位. |
| 407 | He acted as an unofficial bridge between the United States and China. | 担任美中非官方桥梁. |
| 408 | Right. | 对 |
| 409 | He was heavily involved in international relations. | 他大量参与国际关系。 |
| 410 | Very heavily. | 非常严重。 |
| 411 | In May, he actually traveled with President Trump to Beijing. | 5月,他实际上与川普总统一起前往北京. |
| 412 | He was part of the official delegation. | 他是正式代表团的成员。 |
| 413 | And his status was even higher in September. | 而他的地位在9月甚至更高. |
| 414 | Right. | 对 |
| 415 | It was. | 没错 |
| 416 | The White House held a state dinner for the Chinese president, | 白宫为中国总统举行国宴, |
| 417 | Xi Jinping. | 习近平. |
| 418 | Right. | 对 |
| 419 | And Musk was seated at the head table. | 穆斯克坐在桌子上 |
| 420 | This gave him direct personal access to the leaders | 这样他就可以直接亲自接触领导人 |
| 421 | of the two most powerful countries in the world. | 世界上最强大的两个国家 |
| 422 | So people viewed him as a crucial back channel, | 所以人们把他看作一个关键的后台 |
| 423 | like when the two governments were fighting over trade, | 就像两国政府为了贸易而争吵的时候 |
| 424 | they could use him to pass messages quietly. | 他们可以用他悄悄地传递信息 |
| 425 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 426 | He could help calm tensions | 他可以帮助缓和紧张局势 |
| 427 | because both sides really needed his businesses. | 因为双方都需要他的生意 |
| 428 | But the report says this special role is disappearing now. | 但是报告说这个特殊角色现在正在消失. |
| 429 | It is. | 没错 |
| 430 | A recent trade agreement changed everything. | 最近的一项贸易协定改变了一切。 |
| 431 | Right. | 对 |
| 432 | The Busan agreement. | 釜山协定. |
| 433 | Right. | 对 |
| 434 | The U.S. and China reached a trade truce in South Korea. | 美中两国在韩国达成贸易休战. |
| 435 | Right. | 对 |
| 436 | And because of this agreement, the diplomatic temperature has finally cooled down. | 而由于这项协议,外交温度终于降温. |
| 437 | So the two governments are talking directly to each other again. | 所以两国政府又直接互相交谈. |
| 438 | Yes, through normal official channels. | 是的,通过正常的官方渠道。 |
| 439 | And when the official doors open, you do not need a back channel anymore. | 当官方门打开时,你不再需要后台了 |
| 440 | Precisely. | 没错 |
| 441 | A Chinese economist in the report, Bai Wenqi, | 报告里的中国经济学家白文琪 |
| 442 | made a very clear point about this. | 这一点非常明确。 |
| 443 | What did he say? | 他说什么? |
| 444 | He said, Musk is no longer seen as a strategic bridge by Beijing. | 他说,穆斯克不再被视为北京的战略桥梁. |
| 445 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 446 | Beijing's view of him has completely shifted. | 北京对他的看法彻底转变. |
| 447 | They used to see him as a necessary partner for managing American relations. | 他们曾经将他视为管理美国关系的必要伙伴. |
| 448 | And now now they just see him as another powerful American businessman. | 现在他们把他看成是另一个强大的美国商人。 |
| 449 | He's important, but he is not a diplomat anymore. | 他很重要,但他不再是外交官了。 |
| 450 | So his influence is shrinking on all sides. | 所以他的影响力在各个方面都在缩小. |
| 451 | But wait, President Trump is still in the White House for two more years. | 但等一下,川普总统还在白宫呆了两年. |
| 452 | Yes, he is. | 对,他是。 |
| 453 | And Trump has veto power. | 而特朗普拥有否决权. |
| 454 | He can stop certain laws or block some actions by Congress. | 他可以阻止某些法律或阻止国会的某些行动. |
| 455 | That is true. | 没错 |
| 456 | The executive branch still holds significant power. | 行政部门仍然掌握着重大权力。 |
| 457 | Trump can likely protect Musk from the most severe immediate punishments | 特朗普有可能保护穆斯克免受最严厉的即刻惩罚 |
| 458 | because the federal agencies still answer to the president. | 因为联邦机构仍然对总统负责 |
| 459 | Right. | 对 |
| 460 | But even with that protection, the report concludes that a major era is ending. | 但即使有了这种保护,报告也得出结论,一个重大的时代正在结束。 |
| 461 | Yes. | 对 |
| 462 | Musk's days of unfettered access are likely over. | 穆斯克的无拘无束地进入的日子很可能已经结束. |
| 463 | And just to explain that, unfettered access means having completely free | 仅仅为了解释 不受限制的进入意味着完全自由 |
| 464 | and unlimited access to powerful people. | 和无限制地接触有权势的人。 |
| 465 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 466 | For years, he could walk into any room and get what he wanted. | 多年来,他可以走进任何房间,得到他想要的东西. |
| 467 | But the environment is too complicated now. | 但环境现在太复杂了。 |
| 468 | Much too complicated. | 太复杂了 |
| 469 | With intense investigations from Congress and local pushback in Texas, | 国会和德克萨斯的当地人进行了激烈调查 |
| 470 | he really has to change his approach. | 他真的必须改变他的方法。 |
| 471 | Right. | 对 |
| 472 | Experts predict he will have to maintain a much lower political profile from now on. | 专家预测,从现在起他必须保持低得多的政治形象. |
| 473 | So does this mean he will actually have to dismantle his empire? | 那么这是否意味着他实际上必须摧毁他的帝国? |
| 474 | 他会取消SpaceX和Tesla的合并吗? | |
| 475 | or pull his factories out of China? | 还是把他的工厂撤出中国? |
| 476 | Or is this all just loud political noise that will eventually fade away over time? | 还是这都是会逐渐消退的响亮的政治噪音? |
| 477 | Based on the experts in the report, the core businesses will likely survive. | 根据报告的专家,核心企业很可能存活下来。 |
| 478 | OK, that makes sense. | 好吧,这是有道理的。 |
| 479 | They are simply too large and too important to the global economy | 它们规模太大,对全球经济非常重要。 |
| 480 | to shut down entirely. | 完全关闭。 |
| 481 | But the way he operates must change. | 但他的行动方式必须改变. |
| 482 | Right. | 对 |
| 483 | He can no longer operate with zero friction. | 他不能再用零摩擦操作了. |
| 484 | Every new factory, every new government contract and every technology transfer | 每个新工厂,每个新的政府合同 和每一个技术转让 |
| 485 | will face intense legal fights. | 将面临激烈的法律斗争。 |
| 486 | So the era of easy growth is finished. | 因此,轻松增长的时代已经结束. |
| 487 | It seems that way. | 似乎是这样。 |
| 488 | Yes. | 对 |
| 489 | Let's bring all of this together for you. | 让我们把这些都集中起来吧 |
| 490 | We have seen how a single election completely | 我们看到一次选举是怎样的 |
| 491 | rewrote the rules for a massive business empire. | 改写一个庞大的商业帝国的规则. |
| 492 | Yeah, it is incredible. | 是啊,这是不可思议的。 |
| 493 | In Washington, a new Congress is closely examining billions of dollars | 在华盛顿,一个新的国会 正在仔细审查数十亿美元 |
| 494 | in defense contracts. | 在国防合同。 |
| 495 | They are looking for any ethical violations. | 他们正在寻找任何违反道德的行为。 |
| 496 | And in China, the idea of merging an electric car company | 在中国,电动汽车公司合并的想法 |
| 497 | with a top secret space program is raising severe security alarms. | 一个绝密的太空计划 正在引起严重的安全警报 |
| 498 | Right. | 对 |
| 499 | The two worlds cannot easily mix. | 这两个世界不能轻易混合。 |
| 500 | And out in Texas, local voters have successfully blocked | 在德克萨斯州 当地选民成功阻止了 |
| 501 | the massive data centers needed to build an artificial intelligence empire. | 巨大的数据中心需要建立一个人工智能帝国。 |
| 502 | They chose to protect their local water and power instead. | 他们选择保护当地的水电。 |
| 503 | And finally, on the global stage, his unique role | 最后,在全球舞台上 他的独特角色 |
| 504 | as a diplomat between world powers has faded. | 作为世界列强之间的外交官,已经消退。 |
| 505 | The governments just no longer need his help to talk to each other. | 政府只是不再需要他的帮助 彼此交谈。 |
| 506 | So the massive ship is still moving forward on the ocean. | 因此大型舰艇仍在海洋上前进. |
| 507 | But the brutal headwind is not going away. | 但残酷的风不会消失 |
| 508 | Not anytime soon. | 不会很快的 |
| 509 | Before we finish our deep dive today, I want to leave you | 在我们今天完成深潜之前 我想离开你 |
| 510 | with a final provocative thought. | 最后的挑衅性想法。 |
| 511 | OK. | 摆 |
| 512 | This is something to consider on your own as you watch these events unfold. | 这是你自己在看事件展开时要考虑的问题。 |
| 513 | We are watching private companies take over huge jobs | 我们正看着私人公司接手大量的工作 |
| 514 | that used to belong exclusively to governments. | 以前只属于政府 |
| 515 | Right. | 对 |
| 516 | Like space travel and global Internet. | 如太空旅行和全球互联网. |
| 517 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 518 | As private CEOs gain this incredible level of influence, | 随着私人CEO获得如此惊人的影响力 |
| 519 | how much political power should one person be allowed to have? | 一个人应该有多少政治权力? |
| 520 | That's a huge question. | 这是一个巨大的问题。 |
| 521 | And more importantly, who holds them accountable | 更重要的是 谁追究他们的责任 |
| 522 | when their private interests clash with national security? | 当他们的私人利益与国家安全发生冲突时? |
| 523 | Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. | 谢谢你加入我们的深潜行动 |
| 524 | We will catch you next time. | 下次我们会抓住你的 |
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