华虹押注硅光子：AI热潮下，芯片工厂的物理极限到了｜附文稿
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | You probably think of artificial intelligence like a ghost. | 你可能把人工智能当成鬼 |
| 0:03 | Right, like something totally invisible. | 对,就像完全隐形的东西 |
| 0:05 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:05 | You picture smart software just, you know, floating up in a cloud somewhere. | 你想象的智能软件 只是,你知道,漂浮在云中某处。 |
| 0:09 | It feels like pure thought. | 感觉就像纯粹的思想。 |
| 0:12 | Yeah, but it is actually very physical. | 是的,但它实际上是非常物理的。 |
| 0:14 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 0:15 | To date, we are looking at the heavy physical world of AI. | 迄今为止,我们正在研究AI的沉重物理世界。 |
| 0:19 | We have a new report from the South China Morning Post. | 南华早报新报道. |
| 0:22 | Yes, it is about a Chinese chipmaker. | 是的,这是关于一个中国的芯片制造商。 |
展开字幕全文（416 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | You probably think of artificial intelligence like a ghost. | 你可能把人工智能当成鬼 |
| 2 | Right, like something totally invisible. | 对,就像完全隐形的东西 |
| 3 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 4 | You picture smart software just, you know, floating up in a cloud somewhere. | 你想象的智能软件 只是,你知道,漂浮在云中某处。 |
| 5 | It feels like pure thought. | 感觉就像纯粹的思想。 |
| 6 | Yeah, but it is actually very physical. | 是的,但它实际上是非常物理的。 |
| 7 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 8 | To date, we are looking at the heavy physical world of AI. | 迄今为止,我们正在研究AI的沉重物理世界。 |
| 9 | We have a new report from the South China Morning Post. | 南华早报新报道. |
| 10 | Yes, it is about a Chinese chipmaker. | 是的,这是关于一个中国的芯片制造商。 |
| 11 | Right, a company called Hua Huang Grace Semiconductor. | 对,一个叫华黄格蕾丝半导体的公司 |
| 12 | And this report shows just how much physical metal, | 这份报告显示了 多少物理金属, |
| 13 | glass, and, well, sweat is required to keep this AI magic running. | 玻璃,和,嗯,汗是需要 保持这种AI魔法运行。 |
| 14 | It is a lot of sweat, really. | 这是很多的汗,真的。 |
| 15 | Yeah, so our mission today is for you to explore how this huge AI boom | 是啊,所以我们今天的任务是让你 探索一下这个巨大的AI繁荣 |
| 16 | is completely changing these massive factories | 彻底改变了这些庞大的工厂 |
| 17 | and how they're actually, you know, running totally out of space. | 和他们是如何,你知道, 跑出去的空间。 |
| 18 | The physical scale of this demand is just shocking. | 这种需求的实际规模令人震惊。 |
| 19 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 20 | The numbers in this report show a sudden, | 本报告中的数字突然显示, |
| 21 | massive shift in the financial world for these manufacturing companies. | 金融界对于这些制造公司的巨大转变。 |
| 22 | The AI boom is pulling in huge amounts of money. | AI的热潮 吸引了大量的资金。 |
| 23 | The numbers are just staggering. | 数字太惊人了。 |
| 24 | Let's look at Hua Huang's net profit for the third quarter. | 试看华黄三季净利. |
| 25 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 26 | So this quarter ended on September 30. | 因此本季度于9月30日结束. |
| 27 | And just so we're clear, net profit is the money they keep | 我们明白,净利润就是他们存的钱 |
| 28 | after paying all their bills and their workers. | 支付他们所有的账单和工人。 |
| 29 | Right, the pure profit. | 对 纯净的利润 |
| 30 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 31 | Their net profit jumped 147% compared to last year. | 他们的净利润比去年猛增了147%. |
| 32 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 33 | Over double. | 双倍。 |
| 34 | Yes, 147%. | 对,147%。 |
| 35 | They made 123.4 million U.S. dollars in pure profit in just three months. | 他们在短短三个月内就赚了1.234亿美元的纯利润. |
| 36 | That is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 37 | And their total revenue hit a record high, too. | 他们的总收入也创下历史新高。 |
| 38 | Remind us what revenue is exactly. | 提醒我们什么是收入。 |
| 39 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 40 | Total revenue is all the money coming in the door before paying your expenses. | 收入总额是所有的钱 进门之前支付你的费用。 |
| 41 | Got it. | 明白吗? |
| 42 | It reached 987.1 million U.S. dollars. | 它达到了9.871亿美元美元. |
| 43 | Almost a billion dollars. | 将近十亿美元。 |
| 44 | Almost a billion. | 近十亿. |
| 45 | That is nearly a 20% increase from the exact same time last year. | 这比去年同期增加了近20%。 |
| 46 | And for a physical manufacturing company, a 20% jump in one year is just massive. | 而对于一个实体制造公司来说,一年中20%的跳跃只是巨大的. |
| 47 | It is very rare, yeah. | 这是非常罕见的,是的。 |
| 48 | But we do need to look closely at that total number, right? | 但我们确实需要仔细观察这个总数,对不对? |
| 49 | Yes. | 对 |
| 50 | There is a small catch. | 有一个小渔获。 |
| 51 | The report notes Hua Huang recently bought a new business. | 报告提到华黄最近买下新生意. |
| 52 | Right. | 对 |
| 53 | A company called Huali Microelectronics. | 一家名为华利微电子的公司. |
| 54 | Huali Microelectronics. | 华利微电子. |
| 55 | And they bought them to help build more advanced parts. | 他们买了它们来帮助建造更先进的零件. |
| 56 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 57 | And when you buy a company, you add their revenue to your revenue. | 当你买公司时,你把收入加进你的收入中。 |
| 58 | So that makes the total number look a bit bigger. | 这使得总数看起来要大一些。 |
| 59 | It inflates it a little bit, yes. | 有点夸张 |
| 60 | But here is the thing. | 但事情是这样的 |
| 61 | Even without that new company, Hua Huang still made a massive amount of money. | 即使没有那家新公司,华黄还是赚了大笔钱. |
| 62 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 63 | How much without the new company? | 没有新公司要多少钱? |
| 64 | They made 803.4 million U.S. dollars. | 他们赚了8.034亿美元。 |
| 65 | Still huge. | 还是很大。 |
| 66 | Yes. | 对 |
| 67 | And they actually gave a public guess before this quarter started. | 他们实际上在本季度开始之前就给出了一个公开的猜测. |
| 68 | They guessed their revenue would be between 770 and 780 million dollars. | 他们猜他们的收入在7.7亿到7.8亿美元之间. |
| 69 | So they completely blew past their own best guess. | 所以他们完全放弃了自己的猜测 |
| 70 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 71 | They made much more money than they expected. | 他们赚的钱比预期的要多得多 |
| 72 | It seems like they really didn't see this huge wave coming. | 似乎他们真的没看到大浪来袭 |
| 73 | No, they didn't. | 不,他们没有。 |
| 74 | And the company's chairman, Bai Peng, admitted this openly. | 而公司的董事长白鹏公开承认了这一点. |
| 75 | What did he say? | 他说什么? |
| 76 | He said the recent growth in AI caught most people by surprise. | 他说,AI最近的增长令大多数人感到惊讶. |
| 77 | Oh, I can believe that. | 哦,我可以相信这一点。 |
| 78 | He actually compared computer chips to oil. | 他实际上把电脑芯片和石油比较. |
| 79 | He called them the new oil of the industrial age. | 他称之为工业时代的新石油. |
| 80 | That is a strong comparison. | 这是一个有力的比较。 |
| 81 | He even compared this exact moment to the early days of the internet. | 他甚至把这一时刻与互联网早期相比。 |
| 82 | You know, it reminds me of a gold rush. | 这让我想起了淘金热 |
| 83 | Oh, how so? | 哦,怎么会这样? |
| 84 | Well, imagine the famous gold rushes from history. | 想象一下历史上著名的淘金潮吧 |
| 85 | Thousands of people run to the mountains, right? | 成千上万的人跑到山上,对不对? |
| 86 | Right. | 对 |
| 87 | Everybody wants to get rich. | 每个人都想发财。 |
| 88 | Yes. | 对 |
| 89 | They all want to find gold. | 他们都想找金子 |
| 90 | But most of those people find absolutely nothing. | 但大多数人却一无所获 |
| 91 | Very true. | 没错 |
| 92 | The people who actually get rich are the ones selling shovels. | 真正发财的人就是那些卖铲子的人. |
| 93 | Ah, yes. | 对 |
| 94 | Right now, all these software companies, you know, the tech giants, | 现在,所有这些软件公司, 你知道,技术巨头, |
| 95 | they are digging for AI gold. | 他们正在挖AI黄金。 |
| 96 | But the companies making the physical computer chips like Wahong, | 但制造物理电脑芯片的公司 像华容, |
| 97 | they are the ones selling the shovels. | 他们就是那些卖铲子的人 |
| 98 | That is a great way to put it. | 说来话长 |
| 99 | And they are making massive amounts of money right now. | 他们正在赚大钱 |
| 100 | Because everyone wants a shovel. | 因为每个人都想要一个铲子。 |
| 101 | The tech giants are scrambling. | 科技巨头纷纷奔走. |
| 102 | Startup companies are fighting each other. | 创业公司互相争斗. |
| 103 | Just fighting for parts. | 只是争夺零件。 |
| 104 | Yes. | 对 |
| 105 | They all need computing power. | 他们都需要计算能力。 |
| 106 | And this fight creates a huge demand for very specific, very physical parts. | 这场战斗产生了对非常具体,非常物理的零件的巨大需求. |
| 107 | The report mentions a few key components, right? | 报告提到了几个关键组成部分,对吧? |
| 108 | It does. | 没错 |
| 109 | It mentions high demand for microcontrollers, | 它提到对微控制器的高需求, |
| 110 | flash memory, power management chips, and power discrete products. | 闪存,电源管理芯片,以及电源离散产品. |
| 111 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 112 | Let's break these down simply. | 简单说吧 |
| 113 | Because that sounds very technical. | 因为这听起来很技术。 |
| 114 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 115 | Together, they are just the essential pieces that let big AI computers run. | 它们只是让大型AI计算机运行的基本部件。 |
| 116 | Right. | 对 |
| 117 | So flash memory, that just stores the data, correct? | 所以闪存,只是存储数据,对不对? |
| 118 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 119 | Like a filing cabinet. | 像一个档案柜。 |
| 120 | And microcontrollers? | 还有微控制器? |
| 121 | They direct the traffic inside the machine. | 他们指挥机器内部的交通 |
| 122 | They tell information where to go. | 他们告诉信息 去哪里。 |
| 123 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 124 | But the power management chips, those are especially vital, right? | 但电力管理芯片, 这些是特别重要的,对不对? |
| 125 | Yes, they are. | 是的,他们是。 |
| 126 | AI uses a massive amount of electricity. | AI使用大量电力. |
| 127 | Just huge amounts of power. | 只是巨大的力量。 |
| 128 | Right. | 对 |
| 129 | And when you push that much electricity through a computer, | 当你用电脑把这么多的电推过来 |
| 130 | it creates a lot of heat and a lot of stress on the machine. | 它在机器上产生大量的热量和压力. |
| 131 | It gets really hot. | 它变得非常热。 |
| 132 | Very hot. | 非常热。 |
| 133 | These power chips control the electricity safely. | 这些电源芯片能安全控制电力. |
| 134 | Without them, the AI computers would just fail. | 没有他们,AI计算机就会失败。 |
| 135 | They would break. | 他们会打破。 |
| 136 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 137 | So with all these tech companies demanding flash memory and power chips, | 所以所有这些技术公司 要求闪存和动力芯片, |
| 138 | you would think Wahong would just, you know, manufacture more. | 你会认为华容只是,你知道,制造更多。 |
| 139 | That would be the logical thing to do. | 这样做符合逻辑。 |
| 140 | But there is a physical catch. | 但有一个物理捕获。 |
| 141 | Yes, they are. | 是的,他们是。 |
| 142 | The report shows their factory utilization rate for the third quarter was 102.9%. | 报告显示,第三季度工厂利用率为102.9%。 |
| 143 | Right. | 对 |
| 144 | And a utilization rate basically measures how much of the factory's | 而利用率基本上衡量工厂的 |
| 145 | total ability is being used. | 正在使用全部能力。 |
| 146 | But how can a factory run at 102.9%? | 但是工厂怎么能以102.9%的速度运行呢? |
| 147 | I mean, how do you go over 100%? | 我的意思是,你怎么去100%以上? |
| 148 | It sounds strange, I know. | 这听起来很奇怪,我知道。 |
| 149 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 150 | Because 100% should be the absolute maximum limit. | 因为百分之百应该是绝对的极限. |
| 151 | Like, if my car's gas tank is 100% full, I can't add more gas. | 比如,如果我的车的油箱100%满了,我不能再加油了. |
| 152 | It just spills out on the ground. | 它只是溢出在地面上。 |
| 153 | Right, right. | 对,对。 |
| 154 | So how does a physical factory go over 100%? | 那么,一个物理工厂 如何去100%以上? |
| 155 | Well, in a factory setting, 100% means the normal planned limit. | 嗯,在工厂的环境下,100%意味着正常的计划限额。 |
| 156 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 157 | It means using the machines the way they were designed to be used safely. | 意思是用机器来设计它们的安全性 |
| 158 | So what does going over 100% mean? | 100%以上是什么意思? |
| 159 | It means you are pushing those machines past their normal limits. | 这意味着你正在推动这些机器 超越正常的极限。 |
| 160 | You're running them harder and longer than you plan to. | 你比计划的时间还长 |
| 161 | So they are skipping their normal breaks? | 所以他们跳过了正常的休息时间? |
| 162 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 163 | A factory normally plans time to rest the machines. | 工厂通常计划时间休息机器。 |
| 164 | They schedule normal maintenance. | 他们安排正常的维护。 |
| 165 | Like cleaning them? | 像清理他们? |
| 166 | Yes. | 对 |
| 167 | Stopping the machine, cooling it down, cleaning the delicate parts, | 停止机器,冷却它, 清理微妙的部分, |
| 168 | and maybe replacing old pieces. | 并可能替换旧的棋子。 |
| 169 | But at 102.9%? | 但是在102.9%的时候? |
| 170 | When you run at that level, you delay that normal maintenance time. | 当你跑到那个水平, 你拖延了正常的维护时间。 |
| 171 | You skip the rest period. | 你跳过休息期。 |
| 172 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 173 | You keep running the machines nonstop because the customers are just begging for more chips. | 你不停地运行这些机器 因为顾客只是乞求更多的筹码。 |
| 174 | It is like driving your car across the country and skipping your oil change. | 这就像开你的车 越国 和跳过你的石油换。 |
| 175 | That is a perfect example. | 这是一个很好的例子。 |
| 176 | You skip it because you're in a huge hurry, and you can do it for a little while, right? | 你跳过是因为你非常急, 你可以做一段时间,对不对? |
| 177 | The car will keep driving. | 车会继续开 |
| 178 | Yes, but it puts a lot of stress on the engine. | 是的,但它给引擎带来很大压力。 |
| 179 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 180 | If you do it too long, the engine breaks. | 如果你做得太长,引擎就会失效。 |
| 181 | And in a factory, it is very risky. | 在工厂里,风险很大。 |
| 182 | These chip-making machines are incredibly expensive. | 这些芯片制造机非常昂贵。 |
| 183 | How expensive? | 有多贵? |
| 184 | Some cost hundreds of millions of dollars each. | 有的每个耗资数亿美元. |
| 185 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 186 | So pushing them past 100% shows just how desperate the market is right now. | 因此,把他们推过100% 说明市场现在有多绝望。 |
| 187 | And it isn't just Wawang taking this risk, is it? | 不只是华旺冒险,对吧? |
| 188 | No. | 没有 |
| 189 | The report mentions their local rivals, too. | 报告也提到他们的当地对手. |
| 190 | Like who? | 像谁? |
| 191 | A larger company called Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp, or SMIC for short. | 一个较大的公司,叫做半导体制造国际公司,或简称SMIC. |
| 192 | Right, Smick. | 对,史密克 |
| 193 | They are also running their factories at full capacity. | 他们还满负荷经营工厂。 |
| 194 | So the whole industry is just stretched to the absolute maximum limit? | 所以整个行业都到了绝对极限? |
| 195 | Yes. | 对 |
| 196 | Everyone is driving without changing their oil. | 每个人都开车时没有换油 |
| 197 | So if the current factories are pushed past their limits today, | 所以如果现在的工厂 被推过今天的极限 |
| 198 | the only immediate fix is to, well, build new buildings. | 唯一直接的修复就是建造新的建筑 |
| 199 | You have to build them as fast as humanly possible. | 你必须尽可能快地建造它们 |
| 200 | And Wawang is doing exactly that. | 瓦旺正这么做 |
| 201 | They are rushing to finish a new facility called Fab 9B. | 他们急着要完成一个叫Fab 9B的新设施. |
| 202 | A new fab. | 一个新的法布。 |
| 203 | We should explain that term. | 我们应该解释这个词。 |
| 204 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 205 | A fab is basically a massive factory dedicated to fabricating or building these chips. | 一个法布基本上是一个大型工厂 专门制造或制造这些芯片。 |
| 206 | Right. | 对 |
| 207 | And these factories are essentially giant clean rooms. | 而这些工厂基本上是巨大的清洁室. |
| 208 | Clean rooms. | 净室. |
| 209 | Yes. | 对 |
| 210 | They take a long time to build because the environment must be absolutely perfect. | 它们需要很长时间来建设,因为环境必须绝对完美。 |
| 211 | Even a single piece of dust can ruin a computer chip. | 哪怕是一块灰尘也能破坏电脑芯片. |
| 212 | A single piece of dust. | 一一尘. |
| 213 | Yes. | 对 |
| 214 | The parts are that tiny. | 零件是那么细小。 |
| 215 | So building a new fab requires a lot of careful planning. | 因此,建设新法布需要大量的精心规划. |
| 216 | It does. | 没错 |
| 217 | But Wawang is building Fab 9B at what Chairman Bai calls the highest possible speed. | 但瓦旺正在以白主席所称的最高速度建造Fab 9B. |
| 218 | Where is this new factory? | 新工厂在哪? |
| 219 | It is located in an eastern Chinese city called Wuxi. | 位于中国东部城市武夷山. |
| 220 | And they are building it right now? | 他们正在建造它吗? |
| 221 | Yes. | 对 |
| 222 | They started moving the heavy manufacturing equipment inside in mid-September. | 他们于9月中旬开始将重型制造设备运入内部. |
| 223 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 224 | They are clearly in a huge rush to get this running. | 很明显,他们急着赶来 |
| 225 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 226 | But the problem isn't solved just by opening new doors, is it? | 但问题不是只有打开新门才能解决 对吧? |
| 227 | No, it is not. | 不,不是这样的。 |
| 228 | Chairman Bai says the limits on supply will continue. | 白主席说,供应的限制会继续下去。 |
| 229 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 230 | Even with a brand new factory? | 连一个全新的工厂? |
| 231 | Yes. | 对 |
| 232 | In fact, a large part of the production for this new factory next year is already booked. | 事实上,明年这个新工厂的大部分生产已经订好了。 |
| 233 | You mean it is sold out? | 你是说卖完了? |
| 234 | It is completely sold out to customers. | 它完全卖给了客户。 |
| 235 | The factory isn't even finished yet. | 工厂还没完工呢 |
| 236 | The machines were just moved into the building. | 机器刚搬进大楼 |
| 237 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 238 | But the chips they will make next year are already bought and paid for. | 但是他们明年会做的薯片已经买下并付了钱. |
| 239 | That is crazy. | 太疯狂了 |
| 240 | The customers are waiting in a long line with money in hand. | 顾客们在等待着一长串 手持金钱。 |
| 241 | Chairman Bai even said their overall factory use will stay at 100% or slightly higher going forward. | 白主席甚至说,他们的工厂总体使用率将保持在100%或稍高一点。 |
| 242 | So they will keep pushing the machines past their limits? | 所以他们会继续把机器推过极限? |
| 243 | Yes. | 对 |
| 244 | They have no choice. | 他们别无选择。 |
| 245 | You know, the Springs have a really strange detail from the report. | 你知道,温泉有 一个非常奇怪的细节 从报告。 |
| 246 | Oh, about the stock price. | 哦,关于股票价格。 |
| 247 | Yes. | 对 |
| 248 | Right before this amazing news came out, the company's stock price dropped. | 就在这个惊人的消息传出之前,公司的股价下跌了. |
| 249 | Right. | 对 |
| 250 | It dropped by over 2% in Hong Kong. | 香港降幅超过2%. |
| 251 | And that just seems weird to me. | 这对我来说很奇怪 |
| 252 | Why is that? | 为什么? |
| 253 | Well, if a company is making record profits | 好吧,如果一个公司 正在取得记录利润 |
| 254 | and their whole next year is already sold out, why would their stock price go down? | 他们的股票价格为什么会下跌? |
| 255 | Good news should make the stock go up. | 好消息应该让股票涨价 |
| 256 | It is a good question. | 这是一个很好的问题。 |
| 257 | But investors look at hardware companies very differently than software companies. | 但投资者对硬件公司的看法与软件公司截然不同. |
| 258 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 259 | Investors want to see endless growth. | 投资者希望看到无尽的增长。 |
| 260 | Think about a software company. | 想想一个软件公司 |
| 261 | It can grow endlessly. | 能无尽增长. |
| 262 | Right. | 对 |
| 263 | If a million new people want your software today, you just copy the code. | 如果今天有100万新人想要你的软件 你只需要复制代码 |
| 264 | It costs almost nothing. | 几乎一无所有。 |
| 265 | And the growth is infinite. | 而增长无穷. |
| 266 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 267 | But a physical factory that is already over 100% full. | 但是一个已经超过100%的工厂。 |
| 268 | It can't grow anymore. | 复不能增长. |
| 269 | It hits a physical ceiling. | 它撞到一个物理天花板。 |
| 270 | Right. | 对 |
| 271 | The supply constraints will continue. | 供应方面的限制将继续存在。 |
| 272 | If a massive tech company wants to buy | 如果大型科技公司想买 |
| 273 | $10 million worth of chips today, Hua Hong has to turn them away. | 现今价值1000万元的筹码,华红只好把筹码关了. |
| 274 | Because they are full. | 因为他们是满的。 |
| 275 | Yes. | 对 |
| 276 | Even if the demand is there, they simply cannot sell more. | 即使有需求,他们也根本无法卖得更多。 |
| 277 | They are blocked by the physical limits of their buildings and machines. | 他们的建筑物和机器受到实际限制而受阻。 |
| 278 | So investors see that physical limit and they get scared. | 所以投资者看到身体上的极限,他们就会害怕。 |
| 279 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 280 | It means the profits have a solid ceiling for now. | 这意味着利润现在有一个坚实的上限。 |
| 281 | Because you can't magically print more chips. | 因为你不能神奇地打印更多的芯片。 |
| 282 | You have to pour concrete, build clean rooms, and install machines. | 你必须倒上混凝土,建造干净的房间,并安装机器. |
| 283 | And that takes years. | 这需要几年的时间。 |
| 284 | Right. | 对 |
| 285 | So building more of the same factories solves today's problem, but very slowly. | 因此,建造更多的同样的工厂解决了今天的问题,但非常缓慢. |
| 286 | Yes. | 对 |
| 287 | But the AI boom is going to keep growing. | 但是AI的繁荣会继续增长. |
| 288 | The current technology is actually reaching its physical limits too. | 目前的技术实际上也达到了物理极限。 |
| 289 | Wait. | 单单 |
| 290 | The technology itself is hitting a limit? | 技术本身就达到了极限? |
| 291 | Yes. | 对 |
| 292 | You can only pack so many tiny parts into a normal computer chip. | 你只能把这么多小零件装进普通的电脑芯片里 |
| 293 | You can only push electricity through a normal wire so fast. | 你只能这么快地把电线推到正常电线上 |
| 294 | Oh, because of the heat. | 哦,因为热。 |
| 295 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 296 | When you push massive amounts of electricity through tiny copper wires, | 当你通过小铜线 推动大量的电力, |
| 297 | the wires get incredibly hot. | 电线变得非常热。 |
| 298 | And AI calculations require huge amounts of power. | 而AI计算需要巨大的能量. |
| 299 | So the heat becomes a huge problem. | 所以热成为了一个大问题。 |
| 300 | They need a totally new way to move information to catch the next big wave of AI. | 他们需要一种全新的方式来移动信息 来抓住接下来的AI大浪潮。 |
| 301 | So what are they going to do? | 那他们打算怎么办? |
| 302 | Well, Hua Hong is already planning its next major factory expansion for the year 2027. | 华红已经计划了2027年的下一个大型工厂扩建工程. |
| 303 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 304 | 2027. | 2027 (英语). |
| 305 | And they are making a massive bet on a completely new technology called silicon photonics. | 他们正在对一种叫做硅光子的 全新的技术进行大规模赌注。 |
| 306 | Silicon photonics. | 硅光学. |
| 307 | That is a big term. | 这是一个大术语。 |
| 308 | We need to explain this. | 我们需要解释这一点。 |
| 309 | Definitely. | 当然 |
| 310 | Normally a computer chip uses regular electricity to process and move data. | 通常一种计算机芯片使用常规电源处理和移动数据. |
| 311 | Right. | 对 |
| 312 | Electricity moving through very tiny copper wires. | 电流通过极小的铜线. |
| 313 | Yes. | 对 |
| 314 | It's like cars driving on a road, but silicon photonics changes the game. | 这就像在路上驾驶的汽车,但硅光子改变了游戏. |
| 315 | How? | 怎么会? |
| 316 | Instead of using electricity in copper wires, this technology uses light. | 这种技术不是在铜线中使用电力,而是使用光线. |
| 317 | Light. | 轻. |
| 318 | Like from a laser? | 像激光? |
| 319 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 320 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 321 | It uses tiny lasers to move data inside the computer chips. | 它使用微小的激光在计算机芯片内部移动数据. |
| 322 | That sounds like science fiction. | 这听起来像科幻小说。 |
| 323 | It does, but it is real. | 是的,但它是真实的。 |
| 324 | And the difference in speed and heat is massive. | 而速度和热量的差异是巨大的. |
| 325 | Light moves much faster than electricity in a wire. | 光线移动的速度比电线中的电快得多. |
| 326 | And I am guessing it doesn't get as hot. | 我猜它不会这么热 |
| 327 | Right. | 对 |
| 328 | Light doesn't create the same kind of friction and heat. | 光不会产生同样的摩擦和热. |
| 329 | It uses much less energy. | 它使用的能量要少得多. |
| 330 | And AI desperately needs both of these things right now. | 现在AI急需这两样东西 |
| 331 | AI needs more speed to process huge amounts of data. | AI需要更快的速度处理大量的数据. |
| 332 | And it also needs to use less power so the giant computer servers don't just melt. | 而且它也需要使用更少的电源,这样巨型计算机服务器就不会仅仅融化. |
| 333 | It's like upgrading a city's entire transport system. | 这就像提升一个城市的整个交通系统. |
| 334 | Oh, I like that analogy. | 哦,我喜欢这个类比。 |
| 335 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 336 | Imagine a city where everyone drives on old crowded roads. | 想象一下,一个每个人都在拥挤的老路上开车的城市。 |
| 337 | Those old roads are the regular copper wires. | 那些老路是普通的铜线 |
| 338 | Right. | 对 |
| 339 | And traffic jams happen all the time. | 交通堵塞经常发生. |
| 340 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 341 | Cars move slowly. | 车开得慢 |
| 342 | They burn a lot of gas. | 他们燃烧了很多气体。 |
| 343 | They create pollution. | 它们造成污染。 |
| 344 | Those roads are slow and create too much friction. | 这些道路缓慢,造成太多的摩擦。 |
| 345 | The system just struggles to handle the traffic. | 系统只是难以应付流量. |
| 346 | Now imagine replacing those old roads with high-speed bullet trains. | 现在想象一下用高速子弹列车取代那些老路。 |
| 347 | The bullet trains are the light in silicon photonics. | 子弹列车是硅光学中的光线. |
| 348 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 349 | Suddenly information can travel instantly. | 突然间,信息可以立刻传送。 |
| 350 | There are no traffic jams. | 没有堵车 |
| 351 | There is almost no friction. | 几乎没有摩擦。 |
| 352 | It is a completely different level of speed and efficiency. | 这是一个完全不同的速度和效率水平。 |
| 353 | And HuaHua wants to build this. | 而华华欲造此. |
| 354 | Yes, they want to build the infrastructure for this new bullet train system. | 是的,他们想为这个新的子弹列车系统建造基础设施。 |
| 355 | The report mentions these new light chips will be used in AI optical modules. | 报告提到这些新的光芯片将被用于AI光学模块. |
| 356 | AI optical modules. | AI光学模块. |
| 357 | What is that? | 这是什么? |
| 358 | An optical module is just the part of the computer system that sends and receives the light signals. | 一个光学模块只是计算机系统发送和接收光信号的部分. |
| 359 | Like a train station. | 如火车站. |
| 360 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 361 | It connects the different ships together using lasers. | 它使用激光将不同的舰只连接在一起. |
| 362 | And Chairman Bai has a very clear goal for this new technology, right? | 而白主席对于这种新技术有非常明确的目标,对吧? |
| 363 | He does. | 他这样做。 |
| 364 | He said they want to participate in all silicon-based devices inside these optical modules. | 他说他们想参与这些光学模块内所有硅基设备. |
| 365 | So they don't want to make just one small part? | 所以他们不想只做一个小角色? |
| 366 | No. | 没有 |
| 367 | They want to be the main builder for this entire new light system. | 他们想成为整个新光系的主要建造者. |
| 368 | That is a massive goal. | 这是一个巨大的目标。 |
| 369 | He noted they also want to add a lot more capacity for power management chips. | 他指出,他们也希望增加更多的电力管理芯片能力。 |
| 370 | Oh sure. | 当然 |
| 371 | Even with light moving the data, the rest of the system still needs massive power. | 即便光线移动数据,系统其余部分仍需要大功率. |
| 372 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 373 | They need to perfectly control the electricity for all this new hardware. | 他们需要完全控制这些新硬件的电源。 |
| 374 | They are preparing for a future where AI demands more speed than traditional electricity can provide. | 他们正在为AI比传统电力更需要速度的未来做准备。 |
| 375 | They aren't just trying to build more old roads. | 他们不只是在修旧路 |
| 376 | They are betting big on the year 2027. | 他们在2027年打赌很大 |
| 377 | Yes. | 对 |
| 378 | They know they need a completely new technology to keep up. | 他们知道需要全新的技术来跟上 |
| 379 | It really shows how fast this industry has to move just to survive. | 这真的表明这个行业要为生存而迅速移动。 |
| 380 | It is exhausting just to think about it. | 考虑一下就累死了。 |
| 381 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 382 | They are running current machines past 100% today. | 他们正在运行当前机器 超过100%今天。 |
| 383 | They are building new physical factories at the highest possible speed this year. | 他们今年正在以尽可能快的速度建造新的物理工厂。 |
| 384 | And at the exact same time, they have to plan completely new laser technologies for three years for now. | 同时,他们必须规划 全新的激光技术 3年。 |
| 385 | They cannot stop to rest. | 他们不能停止休息。 |
| 386 | No. | 没有 |
| 387 | The demand won't let them. | 要求是不允许的 |
| 388 | So to pull all of this together, the AI boom just shocked the world. | 所以为了把这一切拉到一起,AI繁荣只是震惊了世界. |
| 389 | It surprised even the top experts in the field. | 这令该领域的顶尖专家都感到惊讶. |
| 390 | And this surprise caused a massive wave of money and demand. | 这个惊喜引发了巨大的金钱和需求浪潮. |
| 391 | Companies like HuaHuang are making record profits by selling the physical shovels in this digital gold rush. | 华焕等公司通过出售这批数字黄金热量中的实物铲子来创纪录盈利. |
| 392 | We see chipmakers pushing their physical machines to the absolute limit. | 我们看到芯片制造者将他们的物理机器推向绝对极限. |
| 393 | They are delaying maintenance and running beyond 100% capacity just to keep up with the tech giants. | 为了跟上科技巨头的脚步, |
| 394 | And they are building massive new fabs like Fab9B and Wuxi as fast as they can. | 他们正在尽可能快地建造像Fab9B和武西这样的大型新法布. |
| 395 | But the line of customers is so long that the next year of production is already sold out | 但是,顾客线太长了, 下一年的产量已经卖光了 |
| 396 | before the factory is even finished. | 工厂还没完工 |
| 397 | And looking ahead, they are forced to bet their future on silicon photonics for 2027. | 展望未来,他们被迫以2027年的硅光子来赌未来. |
| 398 | Because they believe using tiny lasers and light is the only philical way to power the | 因为他们相信使用微小的激光和光线 是唯一能给电源 |
| 399 | next generation of AI without melting the computers. | 下一代的AI不溶解计算机。 |
| 400 | It's an incredible story of hard physical engineering | 这是一个不可思议的故事 硬物理工程 |
| 401 | trying to catch up with limitless software dreams. | 试图追赶无限软件梦想. |
| 402 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 403 | You know, we started by talking about how AI feels like magic software in the clouds. | 我们开始谈论AI在云中如何感受魔法软件. |
| 404 | Right. | 对 |
| 405 | But Chermiel Bayh called these physical computer chips the new oil of the industrial age. | 但切米尔·拜赫将这些物理计算机芯片称为工业时代的新油. |
| 406 | Yes, the fuel for the new world. | 对 新世界的燃料 |
| 407 | So it leaves me with this thought. | 所以这让我有了这个想法。 |
| 408 | What happens to this AI revolution if we simply cannot build factories fast enough to pump that oil? | 如果我们不能快速建造工厂来泵油 AI革命会怎么样? |
| 409 | That is a big question. | 这是一个大问题。 |
| 410 | Will the AI boom hit a physical wall of metal and glass before it reaches its full potential? | AI的繁荣是否会在金属和玻璃的物理墙达到其全部潜力之前击中它? |
| 411 | It's a fascinating question to ponder. | 这是个令人着迷的问题 |
| 412 | The software might have no limits, but the physical world always does. | 软件可能没有限制,但物理世界总是如此。 |
| 413 | You can't just copy a factory. | 你不能只是复制一个工厂。 |
| 414 | You really can't. | 你真的不能这样做。 |
| 415 | Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. | 谢谢你加入我们的深潜行动 |
| 416 | You really can't. Thank you for joining us on this deep dive. | 你真的不能这样做。 谢谢你加入我们的深潜行动 |
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