上海废品利润暴涨63%，营收只涨1.8%：垃圾为何突然像黄金
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Um imagine picking through trash on the streets of Shanghai and suddenly your profit jumps by | 想象一下在上海街头捡垃圾 突然你的利润就从这里跳过 |
| 0:06 | 63 percent in just a few months. | 几个月内63%。 |
| 0:09 | Yeah and the wild part is you're not actually collecting that | 是啊,而疯狂的部分是 你不是真的收集 |
| 0:11 | much more trash. | 更多的废物。 |
| 0:12 | Like total revenue in the recycling business only went up a tiny 1.8 percent | 就像回收企业的总收入只增长了1.8% |
| 0:17 | over that same time. | 在同一时间。 |
| 0:18 | Right so a tiny increase in total money coming in somehow created this | 对啊,总金额的微小增长 不知怎么造成的 |
| 0:22 | uh massive explosion in profit. | 利润大爆炸 |
| 0:25 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:26 | That is our focus today. | 这就是我们今天的重点。 |
展开字幕全文（581 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Um imagine picking through trash on the streets of Shanghai and suddenly your profit jumps by | 想象一下在上海街头捡垃圾 突然你的利润就从这里跳过 |
| 2 | 63 percent in just a few months. | 几个月内63%。 |
| 3 | Yeah and the wild part is you're not actually collecting that | 是啊,而疯狂的部分是 你不是真的收集 |
| 4 | much more trash. | 更多的废物。 |
| 5 | Like total revenue in the recycling business only went up a tiny 1.8 percent | 就像回收企业的总收入只增长了1.8% |
| 6 | over that same time. | 在同一时间。 |
| 7 | Right so a tiny increase in total money coming in somehow created this | 对啊,总金额的微小增长 不知怎么造成的 |
| 8 | uh massive explosion in profit. | 利润大爆炸 |
| 9 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 10 | That is our focus today. | 这就是我们今天的重点。 |
| 11 | Welcome to our deep dive. | 欢迎来到我们的深潜。 |
| 12 | We are looking at a really crazy situation in China right now. | 我们正看着一个非常疯狂的中国局势。 |
| 13 | Everyday trash is suddenly acting | 每天都有垃圾突然出现 |
| 14 | like gold. | 像金子一样 |
| 15 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 16 | And people are actually fighting over it in the streets. | 人们实际上在街上争吵着。 |
| 17 | Take someone like | 喜欢的人 |
| 18 | Li Jie. | 李杰 (编). |
| 19 | He collects scrap in Shanghai for a living. | 他在上海收集废品为生. |
| 20 | You would think he'd be thrilled right now. | 你会认为他现在会很兴奋的 |
| 21 | Right | 对 |
| 22 | because prices are so high. | 因为价格太高了 |
| 23 | Exactly but he has a very unusual problem. | 没错 但他有很不寻常的问题 |
| 24 | He just can't find enough | 他只是找不到足够的东西 |
| 25 | ordinary trash. | 普通的废物。 |
| 26 | Simple things you know like cardboard and plastic they are disappearing | 简单的事情你知道,像纸板和塑料 他们正在消失 |
| 27 | fast. | 快点 |
| 28 | Because everyone wants to collect them. | 因为每个人都想收集它们。 |
| 29 | But why? | 为什么? |
| 30 | Like why is an empty cardboard box suddenly | 像为什么一个空的纸板盒突然 |
| 31 | so valuable? | 这么有价值? |
| 32 | Well to figure out why local Chinese trash is so expensive we actually have to look | 要知道为什么本地的中国垃圾这么贵 我们必须看看 |
| 33 | thousands of miles away. | 千里远. |
| 34 | Oh really? | 是吗? |
| 35 | Where? | 哪里? 哪里来的? |
| 36 | We have to look at the Middle East. | 我们必须看看中东。 |
| 37 | The global supply chain | 全球供应链 |
| 38 | connects everything. | 连接一切。 |
| 39 | Okay I want to pause here for a second. | 好吧,我想在这里暂停一下。 |
| 40 | The source we are using mentions the | 我们使用的来源提到 |
| 41 | joint U.S. Israel war on Iran. | 美国以色列联合对伊朗发动战争. |
| 42 | Just to be totally clear we are not taking any political sides on | 坦白说,我们不支持任何政治立场 |
| 43 | this deep dive. | 这个深潜。 |
| 44 | Right definitely not. | 绝对不行 |
| 45 | We are just impartially reporting the economic facts from the | 我们只是公正地报道了经济事实 |
| 46 | article. | 第3条。 |
| 47 | So how did this conflict affect the trash in China? | 那么这场冲突如何影响中国的垃圾? |
| 48 | Well the conflict created a | 这场冲突造成了 |
| 49 | massive disruption. | 巨大的破坏。 |
| 50 | It severely affected shipping in a very specific place. | 它严重影响了一个非常具体地点的航运。 |
| 51 | The Strait of Hormuz. | 霍尔木兹海峡. |
| 52 | Oh okay. | 哦,没关系。 |
| 53 | That is a major waterway. | 这是一条主要的水道。 |
| 54 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 55 | A huge amount of the world's oil travels through there. | 大量的世界石油经过那里。 |
| 56 | If ships can't pass safely well less oil gets out. | 如果船不能安全通过 少油就出来 |
| 57 | And that obviously makes energy prices | 这显然使能源价格 |
| 58 | jump. | 跳下来。 |
| 59 | Right. | 对 |
| 60 | But I am trying to connect a barrel of oil to an empty plastic bottle in a Shanghai | 但我想把一桶油 和上海一个空的塑料瓶联系起来 |
| 61 | recycling bin. | 回收桶。 |
| 62 | How do we get from point A to point B? | 我们如何从A点到B点? |
| 63 | Well it's actually pretty simple. | 其实很简单 |
| 64 | Plastic is | 塑料是 |
| 65 | literally made from oil. | 从字面上说是由石油制造的。 |
| 66 | Oh right. | 对了 |
| 67 | So when oil gets expensive new plastic gets expensive. | 所以当石油变得昂贵的新塑料变得昂贵. |
| 68 | The industry calls this virgin resin. | 业界称此为处女树脂. |
| 69 | Virgin resin. | 处女树脂. |
| 70 | Yeah that is just a technical way to say | 是啊,这只是一个技术方法说 |
| 71 | brand new plastic. | 全新的塑胶 |
| 72 | It is plastic that has never been used before. | 这是以前从未使用过的塑料。 |
| 73 | Okay I see the chain now. | 好吧,我现在看到链子了。 |
| 74 | The | 那个 |
| 75 | conflict makes it hard to ship oil. | 冲突使石油运输变得困难。 |
| 76 | That makes oil expensive. | 这使得石油昂贵。 |
| 77 | Yes. | 对 |
| 78 | Which makes brand new plastic | 这造就了全新的塑料 |
| 79 | incredibly expensive. | 非常昂贵。 |
| 80 | And the domestic prices for this new plastic in China just kept going up. | 而中国这种新塑料的国内价格却不断上涨。 |
| 81 | Right. | 对 |
| 82 | But factories still need to make products. | 但工厂仍需制造产品. |
| 83 | They still need raw material. | 他们仍然需要原料。 |
| 84 | But the new stuff | 但新东西 |
| 85 | costs too much. | 花费太多。 |
| 86 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 87 | So they start looking for a cheaper option. | 于是他们开始寻找更便宜的选择。 |
| 88 | You know it reminds me of | 你知道这让我想起 |
| 89 | the car market. | 汽车市场。 |
| 90 | Like when brand new cars get too expensive people don't just stop driving. | 就像当全新的车变得太贵 人们不会停止驾驶。 |
| 91 | No they | 没有 |
| 92 | rush to buy used cars instead and suddenly the demand for used cars shoots up and their prices | 匆忙买旧车,突然对旧车的需求上升,价格上升 |
| 93 | explode. | 爆炸了 爆炸了 爆炸了 |
| 94 | That is exactly what happens. | 事情就是这样 |
| 95 | It is a substitution effect. | 这是一个替代效应。 |
| 96 | Factories are desperate for | 工厂很渴望 |
| 97 | recycled plastic right now. | 现在回收的塑料。 |
| 98 | Because they can't afford the virgin resin. | 因为他们买不起处女树脂 |
| 99 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 100 | They are buying | 他们要买 |
| 101 | up all the old waste plastic they can find. | 增加所有他们能找到的废塑料。 |
| 102 | In fact the price for recycled polythene went up over | 事实上回收的聚苯乙烯的价格上升了 |
| 103 | 27 percent recently. | 最近占27%。 |
| 104 | Wait 27 percent. | 等待27%。 |
| 105 | Yeah and polythene is a very common type of plastic. | 对 聚苯乙烯是一种很常见的塑料 |
| 106 | A 27 percent price jump for garbage. | 垃圾价格上涨27%. |
| 107 | That is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 108 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 109 | The gap between the price | 价格之间的差距 |
| 110 | of new plastic and old plastic is just too wide right now. | 新的塑料和旧塑料 现在太宽了。 |
| 111 | But the shock wasn't just about plastic | 但冲击不仅仅是塑料 |
| 112 | right. | 对 |
| 113 | I read that it hit the global metals market too. | 我读到它打击了全球的金属市场。 |
| 114 | It did especially copper. | 特别是铜制的 |
| 115 | And this brings us | 这给我们带来了 |
| 116 | right back to the straighter hormones. | 回到更直接的荷尔蒙 |
| 117 | How does that connect to copper. | 这和铜有什么关系? |
| 118 | Well it is not just about | 不只是关于 |
| 119 | oil for making plastic. | 制造塑料的油. |
| 120 | Oil refining also produces a very important byproduct. | 炼油也产生了非常重要的副产品. |
| 121 | It produces sulfur. | 它会产生硫磺. |
| 122 | Oh sulfur. | 哦,硫磺。 哦,硫磺。 |
| 123 | I remember that from chemistry class. | 我记得从化学课上。 |
| 124 | It's that yellow powder right. | 这是黄色粉末右。 |
| 125 | Yep that is the | 是的,这是 |
| 126 | one. | 一个 |
| 127 | But why did factories need so much sulfur. | 但为什么工厂需要这么多硫磺. |
| 128 | They needed to make sulfuric acid. | 他们需要制造硫酸。 |
| 129 | A lot of | 许多 |
| 130 | countries need that acid to produce copper. | 国家需要这种酸来生产铜。 |
| 131 | Oh I didn't know that. | 哦,我不知道这一点。 |
| 132 | Yeah places like Africa and Chile | 是啊,像非洲和智利 |
| 133 | use a special method. | 使用特殊的方法。 |
| 134 | It's called wet process copper production. | 称为湿加工铜生产. |
| 135 | They literally use the acid | 他们用的是酸 |
| 136 | to pull the copper out of the rocks. | 把铜从石头上拔出来 |
| 137 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 138 | So less oil passing through the straight means less | 因此,少石油通过直线意味着少 |
| 139 | 硫ur. | |
| 140 | Right. | 对 |
| 141 | And less sulfur means less sulfuric acid. | 而硫酸较少则意味着硫酸较少. |
| 142 | That creates a huge bottleneck in the supply | 这造成了一个巨大的瓶颈 供应 |
| 143 | chain. | 链条。 |
| 144 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 145 | And to make matters worse China saw this shortage happening. | 更糟糕的是,中国看到了这种短缺。 |
| 146 | They wanted to protect | 他们想要保护 |
| 147 | their own industries. | 他们自己的产业。 |
| 148 | So what did they do. | 他们做了什么? |
| 149 | The Chinese government actually banned the export of | 中国政府实际上禁止出口 |
| 150 | sulfuric acid. | 硫酸.. |
| 151 | They kept it all for themselves. | 他们把一切都留给自己 |
| 152 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 153 | That would definitely cause panic in the rest | 那肯定会引起其他的恐慌 |
| 154 | of the world. | 这个世界。 |
| 155 | Oh huge banning. | 哦,巨大的禁止。 |
| 156 | Those copper mines in Africa and Chile suddenly can't get the acid | 那些非洲和智利的铜矿突然得不到酸 |
| 157 | they need so they can't process the copper. | 他们需要这样,所以他们不能 加工铜。 |
| 158 | Right. | 对 |
| 159 | And we are talking about pure copper here. | 我们说的是纯铜 |
| 160 | Yeah I have seen it called electrolytic copper in the source. | 是的,我见过它叫做电解铜的来源。 |
| 161 | That just means they use electricity | 就是说他们用电 |
| 162 | to refine it. | 来完善它。 |
| 163 | They clean it until it is highly pure. | 他们清理它,直到它非常纯洁。 |
| 164 | Yes. | 对 |
| 165 | So market fear really took over. | 所以市场恐惧真的占了上风。 |
| 166 | Buyers expected a massive disruption in the supply of this pure new copper. | 买家预计这种纯新铜的供给会遭到大规模干扰. |
| 167 | And fear drives prices up. | 恐惧驱使物价上涨。 |
| 168 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 169 | This expectation drove prices higher and higher. | 这种期望促使物价不断上涨。 |
| 170 | And we are back to the car analogy | 我们回到汽车类比 |
| 171 | again. | 再来 |
| 172 | New copper gets too expensive so everyone rushes to buy old scrap copper. | 新铜太贵了 所以大家都急着买旧废铜 |
| 173 | You got it. | 没问题 |
| 174 | The | 那个 |
| 175 | price of scrap copper jumped by 7 percent. | 废铜的价格上涨了7%。 |
| 176 | So global supply shocks and market fears are pulling | 因此,全球供应冲击和市场恐惧正在拉动 |
| 177 | the value of local trash way up. | 本地垃圾的值上升。 |
| 178 | Yes. | 对 |
| 179 | Global markets are pulling demand up. | 全球市场正在拉动需求。 |
| 180 | But you know | 不过你知道 |
| 181 | that is only half the puzzle. | 这只是谜题的一半。 |
| 182 | Really. | 真的吗? |
| 183 | What is the other half. | 还有一半是什么? |
| 184 | Well inside China the government is | 在中国,政府是 |
| 185 | trying to push the supply of trash up too. | 试图推动垃圾的供应。 |
| 186 | Oh right. | 对了 |
| 187 | China's top economic agency has a really | 中国的顶级经济机构 |
| 188 | fascinating term for this. | 有意思的术语 |
| 189 | They do. | 没错 |
| 190 | They call it the urban mine. | 他们称它为城市矿. |
| 191 | The urban mine. | 城市矿山. |
| 192 | I love that visual. | 我喜欢这种视觉 |
| 193 | It is great isn't it. | 这是伟大的,不是吗? |
| 194 | Think about how much copper and gold is sitting inside old smartphones right | 想想在旧的智能手机里 有多少铜和黄金 |
| 195 | now. | 现在 |
| 196 | Yeah or old computers. | 是啊,或者老电脑。 |
| 197 | Or broken cars. | 或破车. |
| 198 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 199 | A ton of discarded cell phones actually | 实际上一吨被丢弃的手机 |
| 200 | contains far more precious metal than a ton of raw ore pulled from a traditional mine. | 比起从传统矿山中提取的一吨原始矿石 含有的贵重金属要多得多 |
| 201 | That is wild. | 这是疯狂的。 |
| 202 | The metals are just incredibly dense in our electronics. | 这些金属在我们的电子中非常密集。 |
| 203 | So it makes perfect | 这样就完美了 |
| 204 | sense to mine the city you know instead of digging a giant hole in a mountain. | 而不是在山上挖一个巨大的洞 |
| 205 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 206 | But why is the government pushing this so hard right now. | 但是为什么政府现在这么用力地推动这件事? |
| 207 | Like why throw billions of dollars | 像为什么扔数十亿美元 |
| 208 | at this specific issue. | 在这个具体问题上。 |
| 209 | It ties directly into their massive climate goals. | 它直接与它们的大规模气候目标联系在一起。 |
| 210 | They have this dual | 他们有双重性 |
| 211 | carbon policy. | 碳政策。 |
| 212 | Dual carbon policy. | 双重碳政策。 |
| 213 | What does that mean exactly. | 这到底是什么意思? |
| 214 | Well first they want their carbon | 首先,他们想要他们的碳 |
| 215 | emissions to peak by the year 2030. | 到2030年排放量达到峰值。 |
| 216 | OK so that means their pollution levels will hit a ceiling | 好,那意味着他们的污染水平会达到上限 |
| 217 | and then stop going up. | 然后停止上升。 |
| 218 | Right. | 对 |
| 219 | And second they want to reach carbon neutrality by 2060. | 第二,他们想要在2060年达到碳中和。 |
| 220 | Carbon | 碳矿 |
| 221 | neutrality. | 中立 |
| 222 | That just means balance right. | 这只意味着平衡正确。 |
| 223 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 224 | Like they won't add any extra carbon gas into the | 就像他们不会把任何额外的碳气加进 |
| 225 | atmosphere. | 大气层 |
| 226 | If they produce some carbon they will remove the exact same amount. | 如果它们产生一些碳,它们会去除同样的量。 |
| 227 | Yes that is the | 是的,这是 |
| 228 | goal. | 目标。 |
| 229 | But reaching that goal requires a massive shift in how they use resources. | 但是,要实现这一目标,他们就必须大规模改变使用资源的方式。 |
| 230 | Recycling uses | 再循环用途 |
| 231 | much less energy than mining new metals. | 能源比开采新金属要少得多。 |
| 232 | That makes sense. | 这有道理。 |
| 233 | So the government is backing a massive | 所以,政府支持一个大规模 |
| 234 | trade in policy to help this along. | 政策交易 来帮助这一点。 |
| 235 | Ah a trade in policy. | 政策交易 |
| 236 | Yeah they are spending 250 billion yuan | 是啊,他们花了2500亿人民币 |
| 237 | on this right now. | 就现在 |
| 238 | Wow let me do the math that is about 37 billion US dollars. | 哇,让我来算算 大约370亿美元。 |
| 239 | Yes it is an | 是的,这是一个 |
| 240 | incredible amount of money. | 难以置信的钱 |
| 241 | They are basically paying citizens to throw away their old stuff. | 他们基本上付钱让市民扔掉旧东西。 |
| 242 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 243 | If you trade in an old car or a washing machine the government gives you a subsidy. | 如果你用旧车或洗衣机做交易 政府会给你补贴 |
| 244 | Free | 免费 |
| 245 | money. | 钱 |
| 246 | Sort of. | 有点 |
| 247 | But you have to buy a new energy efficient product to get the money. | 但你必须购买新的节能产品才能得到这笔钱. |
| 248 | OK I see. | 这样啊 |
| 249 | The government expected a massive wave of old appliances to hit the recycling centers. | 政府预计一波大浪的旧电器会冲击回收中心. |
| 250 | But wait | 单 |
| 251 | I am looking at this 37 billion dollar push and it feels completely backwards to me. | 我看着这个370亿美元的推力, 它感觉完全倒退给我。 |
| 252 | How so? | 为什么? |
| 253 | Well | 这个嘛 |
| 254 | if they are throwing that much money at people shouldn't scrap collectors be drowning in old | 如果他们把那么多钱扔在别人身上 就不应该让垃圾收集者沉溺在老地方 |
| 255 | washing machines by now. | 洗衣机现在。 |
| 256 | You would think so. | 你会这么想的 |
| 257 | Like the supply of trash should be endless. | 就像垃圾供应应该无休止 |
| 258 | It | 这个 |
| 259 | should be. | 应该 |
| 260 | But the reality on the ground tells a very different story. | 但实地的现实却讲述了一个截然不同的故事. |
| 261 | And this brings us back to | 这让我们回到 |
| 262 | Li Jie our scrap collector in Shanghai. | 李杰我们在上海的废品收藏家. |
| 263 | Right the guy who can't find any trash. | 对 找不到垃圾的人 |
| 264 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 265 | He complains | 他抱怨过 |
| 266 | that he can't find enough scrap. | 他找不到足够的废料 |
| 267 | The grand government plan is hitting a major wall. | 伟大的政府计划正撞上一堵大墙 |
| 268 | Why aren't | 为什么不呢 |
| 269 | people taking the free money? | 人们拿免费的钱? |
| 270 | I don't get it. | I么则不解. |
| 271 | Li says there just isn't as much waste out there as | 小李说外面没有那么多浪费 |
| 272 | you'd imagine. | 你会想象的 |
| 273 | And you know the numbers actually back him up. | 你知道那些数字能支持他 |
| 274 | They do? | 是吗? |
| 275 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 276 | The trade in program | 方案交易 |
| 277 | is actually losing momentum. | 正在失去动力 |
| 278 | Home appliance replacements dropped about 20 percent compared | 家用电器替代设备比以前减少20%左右 |
| 279 | to last year. | 到去年为止。 |
| 280 | Wait a 20 percent drop? | 等待20%的下降吗? |
| 281 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 282 | That is huge. | 这是巨大的。 |
| 283 | The total sales numbers tell the exact | 总销量显示准确 |
| 284 | same story. | 同样的故事。 |
| 285 | In the first half of this year sales of goods in this trade in program were 1.1 trillion | 在今年上半年,这项方案的货物销售额为1.1万亿美元。 |
| 286 | won. | 赢了。 |
| 287 | OK and what were they last year? | 好吧,他们是什么去年? |
| 288 | Last year during the same period they were 1.6 trillion won. | 去年同期,它们达到1.6万亿韩元。 |
| 289 | Oh wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 290 | That is a massive drop. | 这是一个巨大的下降。 |
| 291 | That is half a trillion yuan just gone. | 这是半万亿人民币刚刚走。 |
| 292 | What is causing this? | 为什么? |
| 293 | Well it comes down to human psychology and economics. | 说到人类心理学和经济学 |
| 294 | Oh so. | 没错 |
| 295 | Overall consumption is weak | 总体消费疲弱 |
| 296 | right now. | 现在 |
| 297 | People are very worried about the state of the economy. | 人们非常担心经济状况. |
| 298 | They're anxious about their future | 他们担心自己的未来 |
| 299 | incomes. | 收入。 |
| 300 | Ah that makes total sense. | 这完全有道理。 |
| 301 | When you feel nervous about your job or your savings your | 当你对工作或积蓄感到紧张时 |
| 302 | behavior changes. | 行为改变。 |
| 303 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 304 | You don't go out and buy a new smart fridge just because you get a small | 你不出去买个新的智能冰箱 只是因为你得到一个小 |
| 305 | discount. | 减价。 |
| 306 | Right. | 对 |
| 307 | If a family has a fridge that still keeps the food cold they will just keep it. | 如果一个家庭有冰箱 仍然保持食物的冷, 他们只会保持它。 |
| 308 | Yeah why spend the money? | 是啊,为什么花的钱? |
| 309 | They value the safety of holding on to their cash more than they value a | 他们珍视持有现金的安全 而不是价值 |
| 310 | new appliance. | 新电器。 |
| 311 | And no amount of government trade in money will easily change that mindset. | 任何政府货币交易量都不会轻易改变这种心态。 |
| 312 | So we | 所以我们 |
| 313 | have a very strange situation in the market then. | 市场里的情况很怪异 |
| 314 | We really do. | 我们真的有 |
| 315 | Global supply chain fears have made | 全球供应链恐惧 |
| 316 | recycled trash incredibly valuable. | 回收的垃圾非常珍贵 |
| 317 | Factories are desperate to buy it. | 工厂急于购买它。 |
| 318 | Right. | 对 |
| 319 | But nervous consumers | 但紧张的消费者 |
| 320 | are refusing to throw their old things away. | 他们拒绝扔掉旧东西 |
| 321 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 322 | You have demand going way up from | 你要求从远道而来 |
| 323 | factories and you have supply falling fast from consumers. | 工厂和你的供给 迅速下降从消费者。 |
| 324 | High value plus low supply. | 高值加低供给. |
| 325 | That is the perfect recipe for absolute chaos. | 这是造成绝对混乱的完美方法。 |
| 326 | And that chaos is playing out on the streets | 那场混乱在街上闹着玩 |
| 327 | right now. | 现在 |
| 328 | The recycling market has turned into a total free-for-all. | 回收市场变为全面免费. |
| 329 | What does that look like? | 看起来像什么? |
| 330 | Well | 这个嘛 |
| 331 | because the scrap prices are so high a swarm of new people has rushed in. | 因为废品价格太高 一群新人冲进来了 |
| 332 | Oh I see thousands of | 哦,我看见几千个 |
| 333 | independent players have jumped into the business. | 独立玩家跳跃进入了这个行业. |
| 334 | Yes. | 对 |
| 335 | They see the high prices. | 他们看到高价。 |
| 336 | They want to make a | 他们想做一个 |
| 337 | quick profit. | 快速利润。 |
| 338 | It is essentially a gold rush. | 这基本上是淘金热。 |
| 339 | A gold rush for garbage. | 垃圾淘金热. |
| 340 | Basically yeah. | 基本上没错 |
| 341 | A waste | 浪费 |
| 342 | sorting expert in Beijing named Hu Shaoting describes the current situation. | 北京的整理专家 名叫胡少廷 描述了目前的情况 |
| 343 | She says it is | 她说是的 |
| 344 | basically the Wild West out there right now. | 基本上就是现在的狂野西部 |
| 345 | The Wild West. | 狂野西部报. |
| 346 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 347 | These new collectors are mostly | 这些新的收藏家大多是 |
| 348 | unlicensed. | 无证. |
| 349 | They don't have official shops. | 他们没有正式的商店. |
| 350 | They don't have proper equipment. | 他们没有合适的设备。 |
| 351 | They just set up | 他们刚陷害 |
| 352 | they want. | 他们想要。 |
| 353 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 354 | They occupy public sidewalks. | 他们占据公共人行道. |
| 355 | They pile dirty scrap up on the street. | 他们把肮脏的废料堆在街上 |
| 356 | That | 那个 |
| 357 | sounds terrible for the city. | 听起来对城市来说很可怕 |
| 358 | It is. | 没错 |
| 359 | She even noted that they are polluting the local environment. | 她甚至指出,它们正在污染当地环境。 |
| 360 | They are breaking things down improperly and they're creating safety hazards. | 他们把事情打乱了 造成安全隐患 |
| 361 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 362 | It looks | 看起来 |
| 363 | exactly like the messy waste stations from 20 years ago. | 就像20年前的垃圾站一样 |
| 364 | It is a huge step backward for city | 对城市来说是一大倒退 |
| 365 | management. | 管理层。 |
| 366 | Wait so is this recycling boom actually a bad thing? | 慢着 这个回收热是不是坏事? |
| 367 | Well like if they're polluting the | 就像他们污染了 |
| 368 | streets and operating without rules shouldn't the government just shut them down? | 街上和无规可循的运营 不应该让政府关闭它们吗? |
| 369 | It is definitely | 绝对是 |
| 370 | a problem in the short term but Xu Shaolin argues that this chaotic phase is actually good in the | 短期来说是个问题 但徐少林认为 这个混乱的阶段 实际上是好的 |
| 371 | long run. | 长期。 |
| 372 | I am struggling to see how a polluting mess on the sidewalk is good in the long run. | 我很难看人行道上污染的一团糟 从长远来看是怎样的 |
| 373 | Let's unpack that. | 把它打包起来 |
| 374 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 375 | It is about proving the economic value of the industry. | 这是关于证明该行业的经济价值。 |
| 376 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 377 | A massive | 一个大 |
| 378 | brush of money and workers proves that recycling is finally highly profitable. | 钱和工人的刷子证明,回收最终是高利润的。 |
| 379 | People only swarm | 人只聚集起来 |
| 380 | into a tough business if there is real money to be made. | 如果有真正的钱可以赚的话, 做一个艰难的生意。 |
| 381 | Ah I see. | 原来如此 |
| 382 | So the chaos forces the | 因此,混乱迫使 |
| 383 | government's hand. | 政府之手。 |
| 384 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 385 | If it was just a few people collecting scrap the government might ignore | 如果只是几个人收集废品 政府可能会忽略 |
| 386 | it but with thousands of people swarming the streets they have to act. | 但随着成千上万人 街道的涌动 他们必须行动。 |
| 387 | They do. | 没错 |
| 388 | The intense | 强烈的 |
| 389 | competition and the mess will force the government to step in. | 竞争和混乱会迫使政府介入。 |
| 390 | They will have no choice but to regulate | 他们别无选择,只能管理 |
| 391 | the market. | 市场。 |
| 392 | So they will create strict rules. | 这样他们就能建立严格的规则。 |
| 393 | Yes. | 对 |
| 394 | They will standardize how things are collected | 他们将标准化 如何收集东西 |
| 395 | and how they are processed. | 以及处理方法。 |
| 396 | Got it. | 明白吗? |
| 397 | The chaos today builds the foundation for a much cleaner | 今天的混乱为更清洁的人打下了基础 |
| 398 | professional system tomorrow. | 专业系统明天。 |
| 399 | That is the hope. | 这就是希望。 |
| 400 | But even with strict rules there is one major hurdle | 但是,即使有严格的规则 也有一个主要的障碍 |
| 401 | left. | 左边 |
| 402 | What is that? | 这是什么? |
| 403 | This might be the hardest problem to solve actually. | 这也许是实际上最难解决的问题。 |
| 404 | For any of this to work | 对于任何这一切的工作 |
| 405 | well the trash actually needs to be clean. | 垃圾实际上需要干净。 |
| 406 | Clean trash. | 干净的垃圾。 |
| 407 | This brings us to sorting at the source | 这让我们从源头整理 |
| 408 | right? | 对吧? |
| 409 | The family kitchen. | 家庭厨房。 |
| 410 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 411 | Another expert Zhang Miao runs a think tank focused on the circular | 另一位专家张苗经营一个智囊团 专注于这个循环 |
| 412 | economy. | 经济。 |
| 413 | She highlights this as the biggest weak point in the whole chain. | 她强调这是整个链条中最大的弱点. |
| 414 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 415 | Why is that the | 为什么是 |
| 416 | biggest weak point? | 最大的弱点? |
| 417 | Well China is a massive manufacturing giant. | 中国是一个巨大的制造业巨头。 |
| 418 | They have an incredible | 他们有一个不可思议的 |
| 419 | industrial chain. | 工业链。 |
| 420 | Right. | 对 |
| 421 | They have the advanced technology to recycle materials efficiently. | 它们拥有高效回收材料的先进技术. |
| 422 | But that expensive technology is completely useless if the raw materials ruined before it even gets | 但是,如果原材料被毁掉,那么这种昂贵的技术是完全没用的。 |
| 423 | there. | 这里 |
| 424 | Because if you mix your trash at home you ruin its value. | 因为如果你把垃圾混在家里 你就毁了它的价值 |
| 425 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 426 | Let's use a simple example. | 举个简单的例子 |
| 427 | Think about an empty plastic water bottle. | 想想一个空的塑料水瓶 |
| 428 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 429 | It is made of that highly valuable plastic we | 它是用我们这个非常有价值的塑料做的 |
| 430 | talked about earlier. | 刚才说的 |
| 431 | The polythene. | 聚苯乙烯 |
| 432 | Yes. | 对 |
| 433 | Now what happens if you throw that bottle into the same | 如果你把瓶子扔进同一个瓶子里,怎么办? |
| 434 | bin as your leftover dinner? | 作为你剩下的晚餐? |
| 435 | Oh, ew. | 哦,哟。 |
| 436 | The bottle gets covered in oil, sauce, and old food. | 瓶子被油,酱油和旧食物覆盖. |
| 437 | Right. | 对 |
| 438 | It gets completely dirty. | 它变得完全肮脏。 |
| 439 | And cleaning that dirty bottle takes time. | 清理那脏瓶子需要时间 |
| 440 | It takes water and energy. | 它需要水和能量。 |
| 441 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 442 | And sometimes it is actually impossible to clean perfectly. | 有时,它实际上不可能完全清理干净。 |
| 443 | So the plastic becomes full | 这样塑料就满了 |
| 444 | contaminants. | 污染物。 |
| 445 | Yes. | 对 |
| 446 | And dirty plastic is much harder to process. | 肮脏的塑料更难加工。 |
| 447 | It loses that high premium | 损失了那么高的保费 |
| 448 | value we discussed. | 价值我们讨论。 |
| 449 | That makes a lot of sense. | 这有很多道理。 |
| 450 | So for the urban mine to truly work, regular people | 所以为了让城市矿井真正工作 普通人 |
| 451 | must sort their trash at home. | 家里的垃圾必须分类 |
| 452 | They absolutely have to separate the dry recyclables from the | 他们绝对必须把干燥的可回收物和 |
| 453 | wet food waste. | 湿食浪费. |
| 454 | There is actually some fascinating data on this in our source. | 我们的消息来源中确实有一些有趣的数据。 |
| 455 | Yeah, there is. | 对,有的 |
| 456 | An NGO in Beijing looked at how well different Chinese cities actually sort their waste. | 一个在北京的非政府组织研究了不同的中国城市 究竟如何整理它们的废物。 |
| 457 | They gave the cities a score out of 100. | 他们给了城市100分中的1分. |
| 458 | And a few places are doing a fantastic job. | 有几个地方正在做一个伟大的工作。 |
| 459 | Like the city | 像城市一样 |
| 460 | of Suzhou built a world-class sorting system. | 苏州建立了世界级的分类系统 |
| 461 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 462 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 463 | They really invested in public | 他们真的投资在公共 |
| 464 | education and infrastructure. | 教育和基础设施。 |
| 465 | They scored a 96 out of 100 last year. | 去年他们打进96分100分 |
| 466 | A 96. | A96. 联合国 |
| 467 | That is amazing. | 这是惊人的。 |
| 468 | It is. | 没错 |
| 469 | Shanghai also did quite well with a score of 84. | 上海也以84分的成绩相当不错. |
| 470 | Those are excellent scores. | 这些是优秀的成绩。 |
| 471 | It shows it is | 它显示它是 |
| 472 | totally possible. | 绝对有可能。 |
| 473 | It does. | 没错 |
| 474 | But what about the rest of the country? | 但其余国家呢? |
| 475 | Like what happens outside of those | 就像发生在那些之外 |
| 476 | coastal cities? | 沿海城市吗? |
| 477 | Well, that is where the system breaks down. | 这就是系统崩溃的地方 |
| 478 | Voluntary waste sorting is just | 自愿的废物分类只是 |
| 479 | not a common habit in most Chinese cities yet. | 在大多数中国城市中还不是常见的习惯. |
| 480 | So how did the rest do? | 剩下的情况如何? |
| 481 | The NGO assessed 104 cities | 非政府组织评估了104个城市 |
| 482 | in total, right? | 总共,对不对? |
| 483 | They did. | 没错 |
| 484 | I am bracing myself. | 我在自责 |
| 485 | What was the average score? | 平均得分是多少? |
| 486 | The average score was | 平均分数是 |
| 487 | a terrible 18 out of 100. | 一百分之十八的惨剧 |
| 488 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 489 | An 18 out of 100? | 一百分之十八吗? |
| 490 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 491 | That is a massive failure. | 这是一个巨大的失败。 |
| 492 | That means in | 这意味着在 |
| 493 | most cities, highly valuable trash is getting completely ruined in the bin. | 大部分城市 高价值的垃圾在垃圾桶里被彻底摧毁 |
| 494 | It really shows | 它真的显示 |
| 495 | how much work still needs to be done. | 还需要做多少工作。 |
| 496 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 497 | The factories want the material. | 工厂要材料 |
| 498 | The global prices | 全球价格 |
| 499 | make it profitable. | 让它有利可图 |
| 500 | The technology to recycle it exists. | 回收技术是存在的。 |
| 501 | But the basic daily habit of sorting | 但基本的日常习惯是排序 |
| 502 | trash at home is still missing for millions of people. | 家的垃圾仍然失踪 数百万人。 |
| 503 | It is a huge behavioral challenge. | 这是一个巨大的行为挑战。 |
| 504 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 505 | Well, we have covered a massive amount of ground today. | 我们今天覆盖了大片土地 |
| 506 | Let's briefly trace this | 我们简短地追踪一下 |
| 507 | wild journey back from the beginning. | 从头开始的狂野旅程 |
| 508 | Good idea. | 不错 |
| 509 | It all started with global supply chain shocks. | 这一切始于全球供应链的冲击。 |
| 510 | Conflict in the Middle East disrupted shipping lanes. | 中东的冲突扰乱了航道。 |
| 511 | Right. | 对 |
| 512 | And that created shortages of oil | 这造成了石油短缺 |
| 513 | and sulfur. | 还有硫磺 |
| 514 | And those shortages made raw materials like brand new plastic and pure copper | 而这些短缺 制造原材料 像全新的塑料和纯铜 |
| 515 | incredibly expensive. | 非常昂贵。 |
| 516 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 517 | So factories panicked. | 所以工厂恐慌了 |
| 518 | They started buying up recycled | 他们开始购买回收品 |
| 519 | materials instead. | 换成材料。 |
| 520 | Which means this global price shock made local Chinese trash highly profitable. | 也就是说这次全球价格冲击使当地华人垃圾高利润. |
| 521 | Yes. | 对 |
| 522 | Suddenly an empty cardboard box or an old copper pipe was worth a lot of money. | 突然间一个空的纸箱或者一个旧铜管值很多钱. |
| 523 | And that high value caused a chaotic gold rush on the streets. | 而这一高价值导致了街头混乱的淘金潮. |
| 524 | Thousands of unlicensed collectors | 数千名无证收藏家 |
| 525 | swarmed in. | 冲进来 |
| 526 | They created a messy Wild West environment. | 他们制造了一片混乱的狂野西部环境. |
| 527 | Right. | 对 |
| 528 | But at the exact same time, | 但与此同时, |
| 529 | everyday consumers stopped throwing things away. | 每天的消费者都不再丢东西 |
| 530 | Because they were worried about the weak economy. | 因为他们担心经济疲软 |
| 531 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 532 | They ignored the government's $37 billion trade-in program. | 他们无视政府的370亿美元交易计划. |
| 533 | They just held onto | 他们只是坚持 |
| 534 | their old working appliances. | 他们的旧工作设备。 |
| 535 | It really is a perfect storm. | 这真的是一场完美的风暴。 |
| 536 | You have global geopolitics | 你有全球地缘政治 |
| 537 | colliding with local human anxiety. | 与当地人类焦虑相撞. |
| 538 | It is fascinating. | 这很迷人。 |
| 539 | And you know, this whole situation | 你知道,这整个情况 |
| 540 | leaves us with a really provocative final thought for you to consider. | 留给我们一个非常挑衅性的最后想法 让你考虑一下 |
| 541 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 542 | Think about what we | 想想我们 |
| 543 | learned today. | 今天学的 |
| 544 | Recycling only became super profitable because of a negative global event. | 回收只是因为全球的负面事件而变得超级有利可图。 |
| 545 | Right. | 对 |
| 546 | A conflict disrupted supply chains and made raw materials expensive. | 一场冲突扰乱了供应链,使原材料昂贵。 |
| 547 | The chaos drove the | 混乱驱使着 |
| 548 | prices up. | 涨价 |
| 549 | And that is what made recycling a great business. | 这就是回收业的伟大原因。 |
| 550 | So you have to wonder about the future. | 所以你必须想知道未来 |
| 551 | Right. | 对 |
| 552 | What happens to the world's green recycling goals if we finally achieve global peace? | 如果我们最终实现全球和平,世界绿色回收目标将如何? |
| 553 | That is a crazy thought. | 这是一个疯狂的想法。 |
| 554 | What if trade flows perfectly and shipping lanes are totally safe? | 如果贸易畅通,航道完全安全呢? |
| 555 | If everything runs smoothly, raw materials become cheap again. | 如果一切顺利进行,原材料又变得便宜. |
| 556 | And if brand new virgin | 如果全新的处女 |
| 557 | plastic is super cheap, factories will just buy the new stuff. | 塑料超便宜的,工厂会买新货 |
| 558 | They will completely ignore | 他们会完全无视 |
| 559 | the recycled plastic. | 回收的塑料。 |
| 560 | It is a strange paradox. | 这是一个奇怪的悖论。 |
| 561 | Does a peaceful, efficient world actually make | 一个和平,高效的世界 是否真的创造了 |
| 562 | recycling bad for business? | 对生意有害的回收? |
| 563 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 564 | If the financial incentive disappears overnight, | 如果财政奖励一夜之间消失 |
| 565 | will this whole recycling boom just collapse? | 整个回收热会崩溃吗? |
| 566 | That is a fascinating question for you to explore on | 这是一个有趣的问题 你探索 |
| 567 | your own. | 属于你自己的 |
| 568 | It really makes you question the hidden economic forces behind our major climate goals. | 这真的让你质疑 我们主要气候目标背后隐藏的经济力量。 |
| 569 | It definitely does. | 绝对是这样 |
| 570 | The balance between a healthy economy and a healthy environment is | 健康经济与健康环境之间的平衡是: |
| 571 | always much more fragile than we think. | 总是比我们想象的脆弱得多 |
| 572 | Very true. | 没错 |
| 573 | Well, thank you so much for joining us on | 非常感谢你加入我们 |
| 574 | this deep dive into the sources. | 深潜到源头 |
| 575 | We hope this conversation gives you a completely new perspective. | 我们希望这次谈话能给你一个全新的视角。 |
| 576 | The next time you hold an empty cardboard box and an old phone, look at it differently. | 下次你拿着一个空的纸板盒和一个旧的电话,用不同的眼光看. |
| 577 | It is not just worthless waste anymore. | 这已经不仅仅是一文不值的浪费了。 |
| 578 | It is a tiny piece of a massive complex | 它是一个巨大的建筑群的一小块 |
| 579 | global puzzle. | 全球谜题。 |
| 580 | We will see you next time. | 下次见 |
| 581 | See you next time. | 下次见 |
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