金价跌三成，中国买家反而疯抢：一场反常识的黄金热｜附文稿

发布于 2026-11-09 · 时长 9:18

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	So usually, when something loses 30% of its value, people run away.	通常,当某物失去30%的价值时,人们就会逃跑。
0:04	Oh, yeah, totally.	哦,是的,当然。
0:05	I mean, they get scared.	我的意思是,他们害怕。
0:06	But right now in China, the price of gold is just falling fast.	但是现在在中国,黄金的价格正迅速下跌.
0:11	And yet a huge buying frenzy is starting.	然而,一个巨大的购买狂热正在开始。
0:13	It is really wild.	这真是野生的。
0:15	Welcome to our deep dive.	欢迎来到我们的深潜。
0:17	We are looking at a recent article from the South China Morning Post	我们看的是"南华早报"最近的文章
0:19	today.	今时.
0:20	Yeah, it's such a great source for this.	是啊,这是一个很好的来源。

展开字幕全文（263 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	So usually, when something loses 30% of its value, people run away.	通常,当某物失去30%的价值时,人们就会逃跑。
2	Oh, yeah, totally.	哦,是的,当然。
3	I mean, they get scared.	我的意思是,他们害怕。
4	But right now in China, the price of gold is just falling fast.	但是现在在中国,黄金的价格正迅速下跌.
5	And yet a huge buying frenzy is starting.	然而,一个巨大的购买狂热正在开始。
6	It is really wild.	这真是野生的。
7	Welcome to our deep dive.	欢迎来到我们的深潜。
8	We are looking at a recent article from the South China Morning Post	我们看的是"南华早报"最近的文章
9	today.	今时.
10	Yeah, it's such a great source for this.	是啊,这是一个很好的来源。
11	It really is.	没错
12	And our mission today is to understand this fascinating mystery.	我们今天的任务是理解这个令人着迷的谜团。
13	It asks big questions about how we view money.	它提出了关于我们如何看待金钱的大问题。
14	Because it really is a complete reversal of normal rules.	因为这真的是完全颠倒了正常的规则。
15	I mean, usually, we expect demand to follow the price, right?	我的意思是,通常,我们期望需求遵循价格,对不对?
16	If the price goes down, demand goes down.	如果价格下降,需求下降。
17	People just lose interest.	人们只是失去了兴趣。
18	OK, let's unpack this.	好吧,让我们打包这个。
19	Let's look at the numbers.	让我们看看数字。
20	On the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold is trading around $881 a gram.	在上海黄金交易所,黄金每克交易约881美元.
21	Yeah, that equals about $4,101 US dollars for a troy ounce.	是的,这相当于4,101美元一个Troy盎司。
22	And this price is much lower than before.	而这个价格比以前低得多.
23	It is nearly 30% lower than its high point in late January.	它比1月下旬的高点低近30%。
24	And a sudden 30% drop in an asset usually creates panic.	而资产突然下降30%通常会造成恐慌.
25	Right, people want to sell.	是的,人们想卖。
26	Exactly.	没错
27	Investors want to sell their stuff quickly	投资人想快点卖东西
28	before the price keeps dropping.	在价格不断下跌之前
29	They want to stop their losses.	他们想阻止损失
30	But Chinese buyers are doing the exact opposite.	但中国买家却恰恰相反
31	They are rushing in to buy.	他们急着要买东西
32	Yeah.	对
33	And to really understand this, we need to look at three different levels.	为了真正理解这一点,我们需要从三个不同层面审视。
34	We have everyday shoppers, rich investors, and the government itself.	我们每天都有购物者富有的投资者还有政府本身
35	OK, let's start on the street level.	好,我们从街头开始
36	Let's look at everyday people.	让我们看看日常的人。
37	Picture the Tianya Jewelry Market in Beijing.	图片北京天雅珠宝市场.
38	Oh, yeah.	对
39	It is a busy place, you know, full of bright displays.	这是一个繁忙的地方,你知道, 充满亮亮的展示。
40	The article talks to a saleswoman there,	这篇文章跟那个卖家说话
41	and she is seeing a massive rush for physical gold right now.	她看到一个巨大的急迫身体黄金现在。
42	Physical metal.	物理金属.
43	Yeah, like actual gold rings, necklaces, and bracelets.	是啊,像真正的金戒指,项链,和手镯。
44	People want to hold the metal in their hands.	人们想把金属握在手中.
45	And the market data backs her up completely.	而市场数据完全支持她。
46	In the third quarter of this year, physical gold purchases went up 30%.	今年第三季度,实物黄金购买量增长了30%.
47	Wait, 30%?	等等,30%吗?
48	Yeah, compared to the previous quarter.	是啊,比上一个季度。
49	It's a huge jump.	这是一个巨大的跳跃。
50	That is massive.	这是巨大的。
51	So who is buying all this jewelry?	是谁买的这些珠宝?
52	Well, there are too many groups here.	这儿有很多团体
53	First, people buying gold for weddings.	首先,人们购买黄金用于婚礼.
54	Oh, right.	对
55	Weddings happen no matter what.	婚礼无论发生什么。
56	Exactly.	没错
57	You know, a wedding is a major cultural event.	你知道,婚礼是重大文化活动
58	The date is fixed months in advance.	日期提前数月确定.
59	You can't just tell your family to wait for better gold prices.	你不能只是告诉你的家人等待更好的黄金价格。
60	No, you really can't.	不,你确实不能。
61	The wedding is today, so you need the rings today.	今天是婚礼所以你今天需要戒指
62	The demand is very steady.	需求非常稳定。
63	Right, that makes sense.	对,有道理
64	But the second group is much more surprising.	但第二组更令人惊讶。
65	Younger customers are suddenly pouring into these shops.	年轻顾客突然涌入这些商店.
66	Really?	真的吗?
67	Because historically, gold jewelry in China was, well,	因为在历史上,中国的金珠宝
68	it was mostly for older generations.	大部分是给老一代的
69	Yeah, totally.	是啊,当然。
70	It was seen as very traditional and heavy.	它被认为非常传统和沉重。
71	What changed for young people?	年轻人有什么变化?
72	What's fascinating here is how the designs changed.	这里最令人着迷的是设计是如何改变的。
73	Jewelry makers noticed they were losing the young crowd,	珠宝制造商注意到他们失去了年轻的人群,
74	so they started making very modern pieces.	于是他们开始制作非常现代的作品.
75	Oh, so they look better.	哦,所以他们看起来更好。
76	Yeah, they are super stylish now.	是啊,他们现在超级时髦。
77	They look like high-end fashion.	他们看起来像高端时尚。
78	Is this like buying an expensive winter coat on the sale?	这就像买一件昂贵的冬季大衣出售?
79	How do you mean?	你说什么?
80	It is an investment because it holds value,	这是一个投资,因为它有价值,
81	but it is an investment you can actually wear every day.	但这是你每天可以做的投资
82	You get to enjoy it.	让你享受吧
83	Yeah, that is a perfect way to look at it.	是啊,这是一个完美的方法看它。
84	Young people see it as both fashion and a safe place	年轻人把它看成是时尚和安全的地方
85	to put their money.	把他们的钱。
86	Wearable wealth.	可携带财富.
87	Exactly.	没错
88	You look stylish and your money is secure.	你看起来很时髦钱很安全
89	OK, so we understand the jewelry side,	好吧,所以我们理解珠宝方面,
90	but what about people who just want to make money?	但那些只想赚钱的人呢?
91	The investors.	投资人。
92	Right, the investors.	对投资者
93	They don't care about fashion.	他们不在乎时尚
94	They don't want to carry heavy gold rings around.	他们不想带着重金戒指到处走
95	How are they buying it?	他们怎么买的?
96	So they are pouring huge amounts of money into gold ETFs.	因此,他们投入了大量的资金黄金ETF。
97	OK, let's explain ETF for a second.	好吧,让我们解释一下ETF。
98	It stands for Exchange Traded Fund.	它代表外汇交易基金。
99	Basically, an ETF is a fund that lets you buy gold like a stock.	基本上,ETF是一种基金,让你像股票一样购买黄金.
100	You do it on a screen.	你在屏幕上做这个。
101	You don't hold the physical metal in your house.	你家里没有物理金属
102	No heavy safes.	无重保险箱.
103	Yeah, it's just pure convenience.	是啊,这只是纯粹的便利。
104	And Chinese investors are using ETFs on a massive scale.	而中国投资者也在大规模使用ETF.
105	Last month, Chinese gold ETFs got $784 million US dollars	上个月,中国黄金ETF获得7.84亿美元
106	in new money.	在新钱。
107	Wait, $784 million?	等等,7.84亿美元?
108	Just one month.	就一个月
109	In just one month?	就一个月?
110	Yep, it was the highest growth in the entire region.	是的,这是整个地区最高的增长。
111	Globally, it was second only to the UK.	在全球范围内,它仅次于联合王国。
112	But I have to push back a little.	但我得往后推一点
113	Why gold?	为什么是黄金?
114	What do you mean?	你说什么?
115	Well, gold does not pay you any interest.	金子不会给你利息的
116	If you put a gold bar in a safe for a year,	如果你把金条放在保险箱里一年
117	it is still just one gold bar.	它仍然是一个金条。
118	It does not multiply.	它不会增加。
119	Right.	对
120	So why not put that money into stocks or government bonds?	那为什么不把这些钱放进股票或政府债券呢?
121	Well, it comes down to simple math.	很简单的数学
122	You have to look at their other options.	你得看看他们的其他选择
123	The domestic stock market in China is pretty weak right now.	中国国内股市目前相当疲软.
124	So stocks feel risky.	所以股票有风险
125	Very risky.	非常危险
126	And then you look at government bonds.	然后看政府债券。
127	A government bond is when you lend money to the government	政府债券就是借钱给政府
128	and they pay you back with extra profit.	他们还给你额外的利润。
129	Right, that profit is called the yield.	利润就是收益
130	Exactly.	没错
131	OK.	摆
132	But the yield on a Chinese 10-year government bond	但中国十年政府债券的收益
133	fell significantly.	大幅下降。
134	It dropped to around 1.58%.	下降到1.58%左右.
135	Wow.	珃
136	Right.	对
137	Only 1.58%.	仅1.58%.
138	That is barely anything.	这还不算什么
139	Right.	对
140	It is incredibly low.	这是令人难以置信的低。
141	So stocks look weak.	所以股票看起来很弱。
142	Bonds are paying very little.	债券支付很少。
143	Because of this, gold looks very attractive by comparison.	由于这个原因,黄金相比看起来非常有吸引力.
144	OK, that makes sense.	好吧,这是有道理的。
145	So everyday people are buying, big investors are buying.	所以人们每天都在买东西, 大投资者也在买东西。
146	But what is the government doing?	但是,政府在做什么?
147	Oh, they are the ultimate buyer here.	哦,他们是这里的最终买家。
148	They are buying more than anyone else, right?	他们买的比谁都多,对吧?
149	Absolutely.	当然
150	The People's Bank of China, that's their central bank,	中国人民银行那是他们的中央银行
151	they added 830,000 troy ounces to their gold reserves	他们增加了83万盎司的黄金储备
152	just last month.	就在上个月
153	830,000 ounces.	830,000盎司 (英语).
154	That is huge.	这是巨大的。
155	It is.	没错
156	And here is the crazy part.	这是疯狂的部分。
157	This is their 24th month in a row of buying gold.	这是他们24个月连续购买黄金。
158	Two straight years of buying gold every month.	每月两直年买金.
159	Yep.	对
160	Their goal is to diversify their reserves.	他们的目标是使其储备多样化。
161	OK, let's explain diversify.	好吧,让我们解释多样化。
162	That means they do not want to keep all their wealth	也就是说他们不想保留所有财富
163	in just one type of money or asset.	只有一种类型的钱或资产。
164	Exactly.	没错
165	They don't want to rely only on the US dollar, for example.	例如,他们不想只依靠美元。
166	Right.	对
167	So this feels like it is like seeing the head chef eating	这感觉就像看到主厨吃饭
168	dinner at their own restaurant.	在他们自己的餐厅吃晚饭。
169	I love that.	我喜欢
170	Because if the central bank is buying gold for 24 months,	因为如果中央银行要买黄金24个月
171	it makes everyday citizens feel very safe buying it, too.	这让日常市民也觉得很安全
172	Oh, completely.	哦,绝对的。
173	The World Gold Council specifically stated this.	世界黄金理事会对此作了具体规定。
174	They said these continued purchases by the central bank	他们说中央银行继续购买
175	boost confidence for everyone else.	增强其他人的信心。
176	It's like a safety net.	如安隐网.
177	The public sees the government buying	公众看到政府购买
178	and they feel good about buying rings and ETFs.	他们觉得买戒指和ETF很好
179	Exactly.	没错
180	It drives demand even higher.	它驱使需求更高。
181	But this brings up a huge question for me.	但这给我带来了一个巨大的问题。
182	If China is buying so much gold, why are global prices still	如果中国买这么多黄金,为什么全球价格仍然不变
183	falling?	坠落?
184	That is the big puzzle.	这就是大谜题。
185	Right.	对
186	What is putting so much pressure on the global price?	是什么给全球价格造成了如此巨大的压力?
187	Well, for that answer, we have to look at the United States.	那么,对于这个答案, 我们必须看看美国。
188	In the US, investors are really not buying gold right now.	在美国,投资者现在真的不买黄金。
189	Wait, really?	等等,真的吗?
190	Why not?	为什么不呢?
191	Because US interest rates and bond yields are very high.	因为美国的利率和债券收益率非常高.
192	Ah, OK.	啊,还好。
193	How high are they?	他们有多高?
194	Well, a US 10-year Treasury bond pays more than 4.8% right now.	美国10年国库债券现在支付4.8%以上。
195	Oh, wow.	哦,哇呜。
196	Let me just compare that.	让我来比较一下
197	China pays 1.58%.	中国支付1.58%.
198	The US pays over 4.8%.	美国支付4.8%以上。
199	Exactly.	没错
200	That is a massive difference.	这是一个巨大的差异。
201	It is.	没错
202	The article talks about a hawkish shift in the US.	文章讲述了美国的鹰式转变.
203	A hawkish shift.	一个鹰式的转变。
204	We should define that.	我们应该确定这一点。
205	What does hawkish mean here?	这是什么意思?
206	So it means the US Federal Reserve, their central bank,	这意味着美联储,他们的中央银行,
207	plans to keep interest rates really high.	计划保持高利率。
208	They might even raise them next month.	下个月他们甚至可以养大它们
209	And why do they do that?	为什么?
210	To fight inflation.	以抗通货膨胀.
211	They want to stop prices from going up too fast in the stores.	他们想阻止店里的价格涨得太快
212	OK, so they keep rates high.	好吧,所以他们保持高利率。
213	And high rates mean high bond yields.	高利率意味着债券收益率高。
214	Exactly.	没错
215	So what does US investor do?	那么美国投资者是做什么的?
216	They don't need gold.	他们不需要黄金。
217	They can buy a very safe US bond and get a great return.	他们可以买一个非常安全的美国债券并获得巨大的回报。
218	So all that US money goes into bonds instead of gold.	所以,所有的美国钱进入债券而不是黄金。
219	Yes.	对
220	And this lack of US demand puts heavy pressure on global gold prices.	而这种美国需求的缺乏给全球黄金价格带来了沉重压力.
221	It pulls the price down.	其推价而下.
222	Even with China buying so much?	即使中国买这么多?
223	Right.	对
224	In fact, Goldman Sachs actually lowered their gold price prediction	事实上,高盛实际上降低了黄金价格的预测
225	for the end of the year.	年终。
226	Oh, really?	是吗?
227	How much did they lower it?	他们降了多少?
228	They dropped it from $4,650 US dollars down to $4,150 an ounce.	他们从4 650美元降到4 150盎司
229	Wow, a $500 drop.	哇,500块。
230	That really shows the power of US interest rates.	这真的显示了美国利率的力量。
231	It really does.	确实
232	So to wrap this up, we are looking at a perfect storm.	因此,为了结束这一切,我们正在寻找一个完美的风暴。
233	Lower global gold prices, weak local stocks, and low local interest rates	全球黄金价格下降,当地库存疲软,当地利率低
234	have made gold a huge favorite for Chinese buyers.	让黄金成为中国买家的最爱
235	Yes, all at the same time.	是的,所有的时间。
236	Even while high interest rates in the US just pull those global prices down.	即使美国的高利率只是把全球价格拉低。
237	It's a fascinating contrast.	这是一个迷人的对比。
238	But you know, there is one last thing from the article I want to mention.	但你知道,还有一件事从文章我想提到。
239	It's about human psychology.	是关于人类心理学的.
240	Oh, I love this part.	哦,我喜欢这个部分。
241	Tell them about the salesman.	告诉他们那个推销员的事
242	So a salesman at the jewelry market noted something really interesting.	珠宝市场的推销员发现了一些有趣的东西。
243	When gold was high, like 1,000 yuan a gram, everyone rushed into the store.	黄金高的时候,每克1000元,大家都冲进店里.
244	Right, a total frenzy.	对,太疯狂了
245	Yeah.	对
246	But now the prices are low.	但现在价格很低。
247	Many people are waiting on the sidelines.	许多人正在旁观。
248	They are just watching.	他们只是看着。
249	Yeah.	对
250	They're waiting to see if prices drop further to hit the absolute bottom.	他们等着看价格是否进一步下跌以打倒绝对的底部
251	That makes no sense.	这没有道理。
252	If it is on sale, you should buy it.	如果在卖,你应该买它。
253	You would think so.	你会这么想的
254	But I want to leave you, the listener, with this final thought.	但我想离开你,听者, 与这个最后的想法。
255	Why do humans feel safer buying an asset when it is expensive	为什么人类会觉得购买资产比较安全?
256	and get so nervous to buy it when it goes on sale?	当它继续出售时,会很紧张地买下它吗?
257	That is such a good question.	这是一个很好的问题。
258	Think about how your own brain handles value.	想想你自己的大脑如何处理价值。
259	Do you follow the crowd or do you buy when things are cheap?	你是跟随人群,还是买到便宜的东西?
260	Something to really think about.	真正值得思考的东西
261	Well, thank you for joining our deep dive today.	谢谢你今天加入我们的深度潜水
262	Yes, thanks so much for listening.	是的,非常感谢你的聆听。
263	We will catch you next time.	下次我们会抓住你的

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