全球最大购物节遇冷：中国消费者为何对大折扣集体沉默｜附文稿
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Well, welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深渊 |
| 0:01 | We have a really fascinating topic for you today. | 我们今天有个非常有趣的话题 |
| 0:04 | We do. | 没错 |
| 0:04 | We are looking at a major shift in the biggest consumer | 我们正在寻找一个大转变 在最大的消费者 |
| 0:07 | market in the world. | 市场在世界上。 |
| 0:08 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 0:09 | We are using a great recent article from the South China | 我们用的是中国南方最近发表的一篇大文章 |
| 0:11 | Morning Post for this. | 早报为此. |
| 0:14 | Imagine the biggest shopping event on Earth. | 想象一下地球上最大的购物活动 |
| 0:16 | Right, China's Singles Day. | 对,中国单曲日 |
展开字幕全文（289 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Well, welcome to today's Deep Dive. | 欢迎来到今天的深渊 |
| 2 | We have a really fascinating topic for you today. | 我们今天有个非常有趣的话题 |
| 3 | We do. | 没错 |
| 4 | We are looking at a major shift in the biggest consumer | 我们正在寻找一个大转变 在最大的消费者 |
| 5 | market in the world. | 市场在世界上。 |
| 6 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 7 | We are using a great recent article from the South China | 我们用的是中国南方最近发表的一篇大文章 |
| 8 | Morning Post for this. | 早报为此. |
| 9 | Imagine the biggest shopping event on Earth. | 想象一下地球上最大的购物活动 |
| 10 | Right, China's Singles Day. | 对,中国单曲日 |
| 11 | Yeah, Singles Day. | 是啊,单身节。 |
| 12 | Millions of items are on sale. | 数百万件物品正在出售。 |
| 13 | Massive discounts are everywhere. | 大规模折扣随处可见. |
| 14 | Normally, you have your digital cart filled and ready to go. | 通常,你的数码推车已经装满,准备出发。 |
| 15 | Oh, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 16 | It's usually a time for wild spending. | 通常为野生花费的时间. |
| 17 | But this year, there is just silence. | 但今年只有沉默。 |
| 18 | Consumers are staying very quiet. | 消费者保持非常安静。 |
| 19 | Millions of people are simply walking away from the deals. | 数百万人正在脱离交易。 |
| 20 | Yeah, they are completely ignoring the big discounts. | 是啊,他们完全忽略了大折扣。 |
| 21 | So our mission today is to answer one big question. | 所以我们今天的任务是回答一个大问题。 |
| 22 | Why is the world's largest consumer market suddenly | 为什么世界上最大的消费市场突然 |
| 23 | keeping its wallets shut? | 保持它的钱包关闭? |
| 24 | Well, the answer is not about the products. | 答案不是产品 |
| 25 | The products are still good. | 产品还不错。 |
| 26 | The discounts are real. | 折价为真. |
| 27 | Right. | 对 |
| 28 | So what is the actual problem? | 到底有什么问题? |
| 29 | It is about a shrinking sense of wealth. | 这是关于一种收缩的财富感。 |
| 30 | People feel much poorer today than they did a year ago. | 今天人们比一年前更贫穷。 |
| 31 | I mean, that makes sense. | 我的意思是,这是有意义的。 |
| 32 | It does. | 没错 |
| 33 | If you feel poor, you do not want to shop. | 如果你觉得贫穷,你不想购物。 |
| 34 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 35 | Shoppers feel they are losing big money | 店主觉得他们输了很多钱 |
| 36 | in other parts of their lives. | 在他们生活的其他部分。 |
| 37 | So a small shopping discount just does not matter to them. | 所以小购物折扣对他们来说并不重要。 |
| 38 | Let us look at a real story from our source text | 让我们从我们的原始文本看一个真实的故事 |
| 39 | to understand this. | 来理解这一点。 |
| 40 | There is a woman named Xiaona. | 有个叫小娜的女人 |
| 41 | Yeah, Xiaona. | 对 小娜 |
| 42 | She is 37 years old. | 她37岁了 |
| 43 | She works at a bank in Hangzhou. | 她在杭州一家银行工作. |
| 44 | Right. | 对 |
| 45 | Normally, someone with a steady professional job | 正常情况下,有稳定专业工作的人 |
| 46 | would buy things during these big sales. | 在大卖期间会买东西 |
| 47 | But she refuses to buy anything, not a single item. | 但她拒绝买任何东西,没有一件东西。 |
| 48 | And you know, her reason tells us everything. | 你知道,她的理由告诉我们一切。 |
| 49 | She looks at the special deals, but then she | 她看特别交易,但后来她 |
| 50 | looks at her real financial situation. | 看看她真实的经济状况 |
| 51 | Which is not looking good right now. | 现在看起来不太好 |
| 52 | No, it is not. | 不,不是这样的。 |
| 53 | Her stocks are falling. | 她的股票正在下降。 |
| 54 | The value of her home is sliding down. | 她家的价值正在下降。 |
| 55 | And her monthly salary is completely flat. | 她的月薪是完全平的。 |
| 56 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 57 | So she is losing money everywhere. | 所以她到处输钱 |
| 58 | Right. | 对 |
| 59 | To her, the small amount of money | 对她来说,那笔小钱 |
| 60 | she saves with a shopping coupon is tiny. | 她用购物券省下来的 |
| 61 | It is nothing compared to the huge amount | 和那笔巨款相比,没什么 |
| 62 | she lost in the stock market. | 她在股票市场上输了 |
| 63 | It is like someone offering you a 10% discount on coffee. | 就像有人给你10%的咖啡折扣 |
| 64 | But they offer it on the exact same day you lose your job. | 但就在你失业的当天 他们就答应了 |
| 65 | That is a perfect way to put it. | 说得没错 |
| 66 | The small saving does not fix the big loss. | 小额储蓄不能弥补巨额损失。 |
| 67 | Demath just does not feel good to you. | 死亡只是感觉不好。 |
| 68 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 69 | And this feeling of loss is not just in her head. | 而这种失落的感觉不仅仅是在她的脑海里。 |
| 70 | It is real. | 这是真实的。 |
| 71 | It is backed by hard numbers and two huge areas. | 它由硬数字和两个巨大的区域支撑。 |
| 72 | OK, what are those two areas? | 好吧 这两个领域是什么? |
| 73 | Housing and stocks. | 住房和库存。 |
| 74 | These are the main places where families keep their wealth. | 这些是家庭保存财富的主要地点。 |
| 75 | And right now, households are taking heavy damage | 而现在,家庭正在遭受严重的破坏 |
| 76 | from both at the same time. | 从两者同时。 |
| 77 | That is a terrible combination. | 这是一个可怕的组合。 |
| 78 | Let us talk about the stocks first. | 让我们先谈谈股票问题。 |
| 79 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 80 | Let us look at something called the Chinext Index. | 让我们看看所谓的Chinex指数。 |
| 81 | Can you explain what that is for us? | 你能解释一下这是给我们的吗? |
| 82 | Of course. | 当然 |
| 83 | It's just a big list of technology companies | 技术公司大名单而已 |
| 84 | in the stock market. | 在股票市场。 |
| 85 | In the third quarter of the year, this tech index | 在第三季度,这个技术指数 |
| 86 | dropped nearly 28%. | 下降近28%。 |
| 87 | Wait, 28% in just a few months? | 等等,仅仅几个月内28%? |
| 88 | Yes. | 对 |
| 89 | It is a massive drop in a very short time. | 这是在很短的时间内大量下降。 |
| 90 | It really hurts people's investments. | 这真的伤害了人们的投资。 |
| 91 | I mean, if you put $100 in, you suddenly only have $72 left. | 我的意思是,如果你加了100美元, 你突然只剩下72美元了。 |
| 92 | That is scary. | 这是可怕的。 |
| 93 | It is very scary. | 这是非常可怕的。 |
| 94 | And normally, if stocks fall, people | 通常,如果股票下跌,人们 |
| 95 | hope their house value stays high. | 希望他们的房价保持很高 |
| 96 | They use their home as a safety net. | 他们把家当安全网 |
| 97 | Right, because housing is usually safe. | 是的,因为住房通常是安全的。 |
| 98 | Well, not right now. | 嗯,不是现在。 |
| 99 | Look at secondhand home prices. | 看二手房价. |
| 100 | They dropped in 98 out of 100 cities. | 他们在100个城市中的98个城市中下降. |
| 101 | Wow, almost everywhere. | 哇,几乎到处都是。 |
| 102 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 103 | In October, prices were down 6.7% compared to the year before. | 10月,与前一年相比,价格下降了6.7%。 |
| 104 | So both of their safety nets are breaking at the same time. | 所以他们两个的安全网同时破裂. |
| 105 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 106 | Because of this, families are terrified of stocks. | 因此,家庭害怕股票。 |
| 107 | They are saving all their cash to make up | 他们存了所有的钱来弥补 |
| 108 | for losing value in their homes. | 因为他们在家中失去了价值 |
| 109 | And we can see this in the national shopping numbers, | 我们从国家购物号上可以看到这一点, |
| 110 | right? | 对吧? |
| 111 | We can. | 我们可以。 |
| 112 | Retail sales only grew 1.1% in the first nine months. | 零售额在前9个月仅增长1.1%. |
| 113 | Just 1.1%. | 仅1.1%. |
| 114 | That is really low. | 这实在太低了。 |
| 115 | But I have a question. | 但我有个问题 |
| 116 | Sure, go ahead. | 当然,去吧。 |
| 117 | I mean, markets go up and down all the time. | 我的意思是,市场 上下所有的时间。 |
| 118 | We see that in every country. | 我们在每个国家都看到这一点。 |
| 119 | Why is this specific drop making people stop | 为什么这个特别的下降 让人们停下来 |
| 120 | buying regular, everyday things? | 买普通的,日常的? |
| 121 | That is a great question. | 问得好 |
| 122 | It is because housing and stocks are the main ways families | 这是因为住房和库存是家庭的主要方式 |
| 123 | build wealth for the future. | 为未来创造财富。 |
| 124 | Ah, OK. | 啊,还好。 |
| 125 | So it is about the future. | 所以这是关于未来。 |
| 126 | Yes. | 对 |
| 127 | When both drop sharply at once, families feel poor. | 当两者同时急剧下降时,家庭感到贫困。 |
| 128 | They feel unsafe. | 他们感到不安全。 |
| 129 | Even if they still have jobs today, | 即使他们今天还有工作 |
| 130 | their future looks bad. | 他们的未来看起来很糟糕。 |
| 131 | So they stop buying extra clothes or new phones today. | 所以他们今天停止购买额外的衣服或新手机. |
| 132 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 133 | Now, there is another big piece to this puzzle. | 这个谜题还有一大块 |
| 134 | The whole country's economy is actually growing. | 全国经济实际在增长. |
| 135 | Wait, really? | 等等,真的吗? |
| 136 | The national economy is doing well. | 国民经济表现良好. |
| 137 | Yes. | 对 |
| 138 | The national numbers look good. | 国家数字看起来不错。 |
| 139 | But normal people are not seeing that growth | 但正常人没有看到这种增长 |
| 140 | in their own paychecks. | 在他们自己的薪水。 |
| 141 | So there's a gap between the country and the people. | 故国与民有隙. |
| 142 | A huge gap. | 一个巨大的缺口。 |
| 143 | To understand it, we need to look at nominal GDP. | 为了理解这一点,我们需要审视名义上的国内生产总值。 |
| 144 | OK. | 摆 |
| 145 | Let us break that term down simply. | 让我们简单地打破这个词。 |
| 146 | What is nominal GDP? | 名义国内生产总值是什么? |
| 147 | It is simply the total value of everything | 它只是所有东西的总价值 |
| 148 | the country produces. | 国家生产。 |
| 149 | It shows the total size of the economy. | 它显示了经济的总规模. |
| 150 | The total value of everything. | 所有东西的总价值。 |
| 151 | Right. | 对 |
| 152 | So last year, this total value grew about 4%. | 去年,这个总价值增长约4%。 |
| 153 | But the average pay for workers only grew about 2%. | 但工人的平均工资只增长约2%. |
| 154 | Oh, I see. | 原来如此 |
| 155 | The country grew by 4%. | 全国增长4%. |
| 156 | But the workers only got 2% more money. | 但工人只得到2%的钱。 |
| 157 | And this year, the GDP might grow almost 6%. | 今年,GDP可能增长近6%。 |
| 158 | But wage growth is stuck around 3%. | 但工资增长保持在3%左右。 |
| 159 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 160 | So the gap is getting wider. | 因此,差距正在扩大。 |
| 161 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 162 | There is a chief economist named Zhang Yu. | 有首席经济学家张玉. |
| 163 | He explains this perfectly. | 他解释得很完美 |
| 164 | What does he say? | 他说什么? |
| 165 | He says, spending cannot grow faster than income. | 他说,支出增长不能快于收入。 |
| 166 | If your pay only goes up 3%, your spending | 如果你的工资只上涨3%,你的开支 |
| 167 | will stay stuck at 3%, too. | 也会被困在3%左右 |
| 168 | That makes total sense. | 这是完全合理的。 |
| 169 | Think about your own budget. | 想想你自己的预算 |
| 170 | If your country's economy grows by 6%, | 如果贵国经济增长了6% |
| 171 | you hear great news on TV. | 你在电视上听到好消息 |
| 172 | But if your paycheck only grows by 3%, | 但如果你的薪水只增长3% |
| 173 | your reality does not match the TV. | 你的现实与电视不符 |
| 174 | Yes, they are living two different realities. | 是的,他们生活在两个不同的现实中。 |
| 175 | You simply cannot spend money you do not actually have. | 你不能花你实际上没有的钱。 |
| 176 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 177 | So people are not spending their money on singles day sales. | 所以人们不会把钱花在单日销售上。 |
| 178 | And they are not buying stock. | 他们不买股票。 |
| 179 | So where is their money going? | 他们的钱去哪了? |
| 180 | They must be doing something with their cash. | 他们一定在用现金做点什么 |
| 181 | They are? | 是吗? |
| 182 | They are rushing to pay off their old debts. | 他们急于偿还旧债。 |
| 183 | Paying off old debts? | 偿还旧债? |
| 184 | Yes. | 对 |
| 185 | Yes, instead of spending or investing, | 是的,而不是花费或投资, |
| 186 | they are doing something called deleveraging. | 他们正在做一些所谓的去杠杆化。 |
| 187 | Deleveraging? | 删减? |
| 188 | That is a big financial word. | 这是一个大财经词。 |
| 189 | Let us explain it simply. | 让我们简单解释一下。 |
| 190 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 191 | Deleveraging just means paying off borrowed money | 删掉就意味着还清借来的钱 |
| 192 | to reduce your debt. | 来减少你的债务。 |
| 193 | That's all it is. | 就是这样 |
| 194 | Just paying off your loans? | 刚刚还清贷款? |
| 195 | Yep. | 对 |
| 196 | OK. | 摆 |
| 197 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 198 | Let's look at a guy named Zhu Xin from Shanghai. | 看看上海一个叫朱欣的人 |
| 199 | The story from the article really | 文章里的故事真的 |
| 200 | shows how crazy this rush is. | 显示这种冲动是多么疯狂。 |
| 201 | OK, tell us about him. | 好吧,告诉我们他。 |
| 202 | He owes about 800,000 yuan on his home loan. | 他欠了80万元人民币的房贷 |
| 203 | And his interest rate is 3.36%. | 而他的利率为3.36%. |
| 204 | All right, so he pays 3.36% to the bank every year. | 好吧,所以他每年给银行3.36%。 |
| 205 | Right. | 对 |
| 206 | Now, he wants to invest his extra cash. | 现在,他想要投入额外的现金。 |
| 207 | But he cannot find any safe investment that | 但他找不到任何安全投资 |
| 208 | pays a 4% return. | 支付4%的回报。 |
| 209 | Because the stock market is doing so poorly. | 因为股市表现不佳. |
| 210 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 211 | If he invests his cash and makes less than 3%, | 如果他投资他的钱 赚不到3%, |
| 212 | he actually loses money overall. | 他实际上损失了整个钱。 |
| 213 | Because his home loan costs him more than his investment makes. | 因为他的房贷比投资要贵 |
| 214 | You got it. | 没问题 |
| 215 | The math works against him. | 数学对他不利 |
| 216 | So the smartest financial choice is to pay off his 3.36% loan | 所以最聪明的金融选择 就是还清他3.36%的贷款 |
| 217 | early. | 早点 |
| 218 | That stops it from losing money to the bank. | 这阻止它输钱给银行。 |
| 219 | Yes, it stops bleeding. | 对,止血 |
| 220 | And this rush to pay off loans is huge right now. | 而这种急于偿还贷款的举动,现在已经是巨大的了. |
| 221 | How huge? | 这么大? |
| 222 | Well, Zhu Xin had to wait two whole months just | 朱欣只等了两个月 |
| 223 | to get an appointment at his bank. | 在他的银行预约。 |
| 224 | Wait, two months? | 等等,两个月? |
| 225 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 226 | Just to give the bank his money? | 把钱给银行? |
| 227 | Yes. | 对 |
| 228 | The banks are completely overwhelmed. | 银行完全不堪重负 |
| 229 | Everyone wants to pay their loans early. | 每个人都想提前偿还贷款。 |
| 230 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 231 | That is wild. | 这是疯狂的。 |
| 232 | Look at the data from three state-owned banks in Shanghai. | 上海三家国有银行数据查询. |
| 233 | Three years ago, early mortgage payments | 三年前,提前偿还抵押贷款 |
| 234 | were only 100 million yuan per month. | 每月只有一亿元人民币 |
| 235 | OK, 100 million. | 好,一亿 |
| 236 | Today, those early payments jump to 2 billion yuan per month. | 今天,这些早期支付额跃升至每月20亿人民币。 |
| 237 | 2 billion. | 二十亿. |
| 238 | That is a massive jump. | 这是一个巨大的跳跃。 |
| 239 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 240 | And at the same time, new household loans | 同时,新的家庭贷款 |
| 241 | are almost completely flat. | 几乎完全平坦。 |
| 242 | Nobody is borrowing money. | 没有人借钱。 |
| 243 | That sounds like a defensive game now. | 这听起来像一个防御游戏了。 |
| 244 | What do you mean? | 你说什么? |
| 245 | Well, instead of trying to score new points by investing | 而不是试图通过投资获得新分数 |
| 246 | or buying new things, people are just trying to build a wall. | 或买新东西, 人们只是想建造一堵墙。 |
| 247 | They want to protect what they have. | 他们想要保护他们所拥有的一切 |
| 248 | That is exactly right. | 没错 |
| 249 | So to wrap this up, the government | 所以为了结束这一切,政府 |
| 250 | is trying to fix this, right? | 试图解决这个问题,对不对? |
| 251 | Yes. | 对 |
| 252 | They recently issued 20 new measures. | 他们最近发布了20项新措施。 |
| 253 | They want to build better shops and better tourist spots. | 他们希望建造更好的商店和更好的旅游景点. |
| 254 | They really want people to spend their money. | 他们真的希望人们花他们的钱。 |
| 255 | They do. | 没错 |
| 256 | But the data shows consumers have | 但数据显示消费者 |
| 257 | a completely different plan. | 一个完全不同的计划 |
| 258 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 259 | The beautiful new shops do not matter | 美丽的新商店不重要 |
| 260 | if your bank account feels empty. | 如果你的银行账户觉得空空。 |
| 261 | Consumers want to hold cash. | 消费者希望持有现金. |
| 262 | They want to survive the drops in housing and stocks. | 他们想在住房和库存的下降中幸存下来。 |
| 263 | And they really want to clear their debts. | 他们真的想还清债务 |
| 264 | Before we go, we want to leave you | 走之前,我们想离开你 |
| 265 | with a final thought to ponder. | 和最后的思考。 |
| 266 | We are seeing a whole society change its mind | 我们正看到整个社会改变主意 |
| 267 | at the exact same time. | 在同一时间 |
| 268 | Yes. | 对 |
| 269 | Millions of people are switching their mindset. | 数百万人正在转变心态。 |
| 270 | They used to have an invest and spend mindset. | 他们曾经有投资 并花心思。 |
| 271 | Now they have a defend and repay mindset. | 现在,他们有一个捍卫和回报的心态。 |
| 272 | So here is the question for you. | 这就是你的问题 |
| 273 | If millions of consumers decide that paying off old debts | 如果数百万消费者决定偿还旧债 |
| 274 | is better than buying new things, | 比买新东西好 |
| 275 | how does a consumer economy keep running? | 消费经济如何持续运行? |
| 276 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 277 | If nobody is buying, how do businesses survive? | 如果没人买东西,企业如何生存? |
| 278 | It is a really huge challenge for the future. | 这是对未来的巨大挑战。 |
| 279 | It really is. | 没错 |
| 280 | It changes the whole economic system. | 它改变了整个经济体系. |
| 281 | Well, thank you for joining our deep dive today. | 谢谢你今天加入我们的深度潜水 |
| 282 | We hope this helped you understand | 我们希望这能帮助你理解 |
| 283 | why the biggest shopping festival on earth | 为什么世界上最大的购物节 |
| 284 | was so quiet this year. | 今年很安静 |
| 285 | It is always about following the math behind the behavior. | 总是跟随行为背后的数学 |
| 286 | Right. | 对 |
| 287 | Remind yourself to keep questioning | 提醒自己继续询问 |
| 288 | the big trends around you. | 你周围的大趋势。 |
| 289 | Have a great day and we will catch you next time. | 祝你今天愉快,下次我们会抓到你 |
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