借钱炒股潮卷土重来！CNBC探访动用 6 位数保证金的29岁
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | I remember specifically researching margin debt. | 我记得专门研究边际债务 |
| 0:04 | It was really late, maybe like 2 a.m. | 它真的很晚了,也许像凌晨2点。 |
| 0:07 | When I learned what it was, I thought that it sounded too good to be true. | 当我得知它是什么, 我觉得听起来太好 是真的。 |
| 0:11 | My mom was still awake at the time. | 我妈妈当时还醒着 |
| 0:12 | I explained to her what it was, and she was like, | 我向她解释了是什么 她就像, |
| 0:15 | wow, sounds really cool. | 听起来很酷 |
| 0:16 | That same night, I started using margin. | 当天晚上,我开始使用比值。 |
| 0:19 | More of the stock market is trading using other people's money. | 更多的股市在利用别人的钱进行交易. |
| 0:22 | Margin debt is money investors borrow from their brokerage firm, | 边际债务是投资者从经纪公司借的钱 |
| 0:25 | using the investments in their account as collateral. | 将账户中的投资作为抵押。 |
展开字幕全文（158 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I remember specifically researching margin debt. | 我记得专门研究边际债务 |
| 2 | It was really late, maybe like 2 a.m. | 它真的很晚了,也许像凌晨2点。 |
| 3 | When I learned what it was, I thought that it sounded too good to be true. | 当我得知它是什么, 我觉得听起来太好 是真的。 |
| 4 | My mom was still awake at the time. | 我妈妈当时还醒着 |
| 5 | I explained to her what it was, and she was like, | 我向她解释了是什么 她就像, |
| 6 | wow, sounds really cool. | 听起来很酷 |
| 7 | That same night, I started using margin. | 当天晚上,我开始使用比值。 |
| 8 | More of the stock market is trading using other people's money. | 更多的股市在利用别人的钱进行交易. |
| 9 | Margin debt is money investors borrow from their brokerage firm, | 边际债务是投资者从经纪公司借的钱 |
| 10 | using the investments in their account as collateral. | 将账户中的投资作为抵押。 |
| 11 | And that borrowing has been growing much faster than the market itself. | 而这种借贷增长的速度比市场本身快得多。 |
| 12 | Margin debt hit a record $1.5 trillion in June 2026, | 边际债务在2026年6月创下1.5万亿美元纪录, |
| 13 | and that was up nearly 49 percent from a year earlier, | 这比一年前增加了近49%, |
| 14 | while the S&P returned just about 21 percent over the same period. | 而在同期,社保公司只返回了约21%。 |
| 15 | We have never seen Americans hooked on margin like this. | 我们从未见过美国人这样上钩 |
| 16 | This is crazy. | 这太疯狂了 |
| 17 | He Lu is a retail investor who uses margin through Robinhood. | 他是一个零售投资者 他通过Robinhood来利用利润。 |
| 18 | By the end of August 2026, he held about $712,000 worth of Tesla shares | 到2026年8月底,他持有价值约712,000美元的特斯拉股份. |
| 19 | and was carrying roughly $147,000 in margin debt. | 和大约147 000美元的差额债务。 |
| 20 | After accounting for that borrowing and his options positions, | 在计算了借款和他选择的职位后 |
| 21 | his portfolio was worth about $538,000. | 他的组合价值约538 000美元。 |
| 22 | He calculates his total net worth to be more than $800,000. | 他计算出他的总净值超过80万美元. |
| 23 | I'm very close to becoming a millionaire. | 我快成为百万富翁了 |
| 24 | My goal for investing in Tesla is to accumulate as much wealth | 我投资特斯拉的目的是 积累同样多的财富 |
| 25 | as quickly as possible to retire as soon as possible. | 尽快退休 |
| 26 | What do you say to those that would say that what you're engaging in | 你对那些会说出你所从事 |
| 27 | could be some form of gambling? | 可能是赌博吗? |
| 28 | It is gambling. | 这是赌博。 |
| 29 | What I'm doing is risky. | 我所做的是冒险的。 |
| 30 | I don't recommend anyone do it. | 我不建议任何人这样做。 |
| 31 | But the risk doesn't stop with individual investors. | 但风险并不停止于个别投资者. |
| 32 | When margin debt rises quickly, history shows the broader market | 当边际债务迅速上升,历史显示市场更加广阔 |
| 33 | can become much more vulnerable to declines. | 更容易遭受衰退。 |
| 34 | Since 1960, whenever margin debt rose more than 45 percent year over year, | 自1960年以来,每当差值债务逐年增加45%以上时, |
| 35 | out of the six times that happened, five times there were declines | 6次中,有5次下降 |
| 36 | in the stock market. | 在股票市场。 |
| 37 | That just adds to the broad risk that the stock market is facing | 这只会增加股票市场面临的大风险 |
| 38 | because we have this increased activity in margin debt. | 因为我们的边际债务增加 |
| 39 | So why are reported margin balances so high? | 因此,为什么所报告的差值余额如此之高? |
| 40 | And what happens when an investor uses six figures of borrowed money | 投资人用6个借来的钱时会发生什么 |
| 41 | to make a concentrated bet? | 赌注集中? |
| 42 | I came to Houston to find out why one 29-year-old engineering consultant | 我来到休斯敦 想知道为什么一个29岁的工程顾问 |
| 43 | borrowed six figures to buy stock, and how the risk of a margin call | 借了6个数字来购买股票 以及差价交易的风险 |
| 44 | eventually brought his family's home into the equation. | 最终将他的家带到了方程式中. |
| 45 | Hey, Sean. | 嘿,西恩,你好吗? |
| 46 | Hey, he. | 糑 |
| 47 | Nice to meet you, too. | 我也很高兴见到你 |
| 48 | How are you? | 你好吗? |
| 49 | He's decision to invest in Tesla began gradually. | 他投资特斯拉的决定逐渐开始. |
| 50 | I started accumulating Tesla shares in December 2019. | 2019年12月开始积累特斯拉股份. |
| 51 | That's when I first bought my first Tesla share. | 那时我第一次买了我的第一个特斯拉股份. |
| 52 | And I did it, immediately started going into margin debt. | 我做到了,立即开始 进入边际债务。 |
| 53 | At first, he considered the conventional approach | 一开始,他考虑了传统方法 |
| 54 | of spreading his money across index funds and other diversified investments. | 将他的钱分散到指数基金和其他多样化投资中 |
| 55 | I was like, this is too slow of a return. | 我当时想,这是太慢的回报。 |
| 56 | I will take on more risk. | 我会承担更多的风险。 |
| 57 | And I learned that I have a very high risk tolerance. | 我了解到我的风险承受能力非常高。 |
| 58 | So a couple of months later, I went all in on Tesla. | 几个月后,我全上了特斯拉 |
| 59 | Everything changed for he when about five years ago, he discovered margin. | 五年前,他发现了悬崖,一切都变了 |
| 60 | I went really crazy, you know, interest rate was 2.5 percent. | 我真的疯了,你知道,利率是2.5%。 |
| 61 | Stock was going up. | 股票涨了 |
| 62 | And so I was like, there's no way I could lose. | 所以我想,我不可能输 |
| 63 | It's buy more Tesla shares. | 买更多的特斯拉股份。 |
| 64 | I need more Tesla shares. | 我需要更多的特斯拉股份。 |
| 65 | From May 2021 up until June 2022, | 从2021年5月到2022年6月, |
| 66 | I had amassed over 110k margin debt. | 我积累了超过110k的边际债务。 |
| 67 | Then I started paying on my margin debt because I realized that the interest rate was going up. | 然后,我开始支付我的边际债务,因为我意识到利率正在上升。 |
| 68 | It was becoming more expensive to borrow money. | 借钱越来越贵了 |
| 69 | Also, the stock had gone down. | 而且,股票已经下跌。 |
| 70 | He calls the point where Tesla falls low enough to trigger a margin column his death price. | 他称特斯拉跌得足够低 足以引发一个比值栏 他的死亡价格。 |
| 71 | If the value of his investments falls far enough, his brokerage can require him to put up more money. | 如果投资价值跌得够远的话,他的经纪公司可以要求他多出钱. |
| 72 | And if he can't, it can sell his investments to cover what he owes. | 如果他做不到,它可以卖掉他的投资来弥补他欠下的钱. |
| 73 | In July 2022, I calculated my death price to be $173 per share, but adjusted. | 2022年7月,我计算出每股173美元的死亡价格,但有所调整. |
| 74 | And at the time, Tesla was 272. | 而当时的特斯拉是272岁. |
| 75 | And I realized I was like, I could potentially be in trouble of getting a margin call if Tesla falls below my death price. | 我意识到如果特斯拉低于我的死价 我可能会有麻烦得到一个差价电话 |
| 76 | And Tesla was at the time falling very sharply. | 而特斯拉当时的下降非常剧烈. |
| 77 | Brokerages require investors using margin to keep a minimum portion of the account as their own money rather than borrowed money. | 经纪人要求投资者使用利润率将账户的最低限度部分作为自己的钱,而不是借钱。 |
| 78 | Under FINRA's rules, that minimum is generally 25%, though brokerages often require more. | 根据FINRA的规则,这一最低比例一般为25%,尽管经纪往往需要更多。 |
| 79 | So let's say a brokerage requires at least 40% to be equity. | 所以说经纪公司至少需要40%的股本 |
| 80 | An investor buys $10,000 worth of stock using $5,000 of their own money and borrowing the other $5,000. | 投资人用自己的钱5000元购买价值1万元的股票,另借5000元. |
| 81 | But if the stock falls, let's say 20%, that investment is now worth $8,000. | 但是如果股票下跌,比如20%, 投资现在价值8000美元。 |
| 82 | The investor still owes the brokerage $5,000. | 投资方仍欠经纪公司5000元. |
| 83 | That would drop the equity in the account below the threshold, triggering a margin call. | 这将使账户的股本低于门槛值,引发差值调值。 |
| 84 | They may have to add money, add securities or pay down some of the loan. | 他们可能必须增加资金、增加证券或偿还部分贷款。 |
| 85 | If they don't, the brokerages can sell investments in the account to cover what it's owed. | 经纪机构如不这样做,可以出售该账户的投资,以弥补其所欠款项. |
| 86 | He says he's been thinking about this investment over many decades, but a margin call can happen during a much shorter time frame. | 他说他几十年来一直在考虑这项投资,但是在更短的时间范围内可能会出现差价呼吁. |
| 87 | Even if he's right about Tesla, if there's just too much velocity on the downturn and he gets a margin call, | 即使他说得对特斯拉, 如果有太多的速度 在下滑,他得到一个比分呼叫, |
| 88 | he won't have the ability to hold it through the period he needs to hold it through to be right in the end. | 他无法坚持到他需要坚持到最后 |
| 89 | I knew I needed to pay down my margin debt. | 我知道我需要还清我的钱 |
| 90 | I took out a loan on my house, so I refinanced the house to get access to an extra $30,000 of capital, | 我借了房子的贷款 所以我重新资助了房子 以获得额外的三万元资本 |
| 91 | and I used that to pay down my margin debt. | 我用它来还债 |
| 92 | But he wasn't the only one taking on that risk. | 但他不是唯一冒这个险的人 |
| 93 | When he decided to come to you and say, you know, I think I want to take out a loan to refinance the house, | 当他决定来找你说,你知道, 我想我想拿出贷款 以重新融资的房子, |
| 94 | I want to put my name on the mortgage, what was your reaction to that? | 我想把我的名字放在抵押贷款上 你对此有什么反应? |
| 95 | He explained to me about the margin. | 他向我解释了差值 |
| 96 | He wanted to have the money in hand just in case, so then I just let him because he's my son and because I believe in him. | 他想拿钱以防万一 所以我就让他来 因为他是我儿子 因为我相信他 |
| 97 | Have you still showed any sort of concern or worry about his investment decision? | 你对他的投资决定 是否还有任何担忧或担忧? |
| 98 | I still a little bit concerned. | 我还是有点担心 |
| 99 | When I see the Tesla price going down, you know, I was concerned, I was worried, but he's very calm. | 当我看到特斯拉的价格下跌, 你知道,我很担心,我很担心, 但他非常平静。 |
| 100 | By the end of next year, hopefully, my plan is to pay off the entire margin debt and I will own all of these shares outright. | 希望到明年年底 我的计划是还清所有差额债务 我将直接拥有所有这些股份 |
| 101 | So why exactly is margin debt hitting record highs? | 那么为什么边际债务创下历史新高呢? |
| 102 | Some of it can be explained by saying that gains beget gains. | 其中一些可以通过说收益可产生收益来解释。 |
| 103 | When people see the stock market keep going up, they're inclined to take on more risk and you just hope that it all works out. | 当人们看到股市不断上升, 他们倾向于承担更多的风险, 你只是希望一切都能成功。 |
| 104 | Leveraging a leveraged product means you got an enhanced return, so they're all being rewarded for it right now. | 利用杠杆产品意味着你得到更高的回报 所以他们现在都得到了回报 |
| 105 | There's more and more signs popping up every day that if you own assets, you're going to be in a better position than working hard. | 每天都有越来越多的迹象显示, 如果你拥有资产, 你会处于比努力工作更好的地位。 |
| 106 | You look at inflation and you look at how your wage growth just keeps falling behind on it. | 你看看通货膨胀 看看你的工资增长如何 一直落后于它。 |
| 107 | So in the big picture, it makes a lot of sense why individuals, specifically retail investors, keep gravitating towards this margin debt. | 因此,在大局中, 个人,特别是零售投资者, 为何一直向这个边际债务倾斜, 这有很多道理。 |
| 108 | This is like a drug and I think people just can't get enough of it in this economy. | 这就像一种药物 我认为人们在这种经济中是得不到足够的。 |
| 109 | On top of that, brokerages have made it easier for people to borrow. | 除此之外,经纪公司还使人们更容易借钱. |
| 110 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}Robinhood已经做出了非常一致的努力 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}去追那些积极利用利润的顾客 | |
| 111 | because they're the most active traders. | 因为他们是最活跃的商人。 |
| 112 | Robinhood's margin book more than quadrupled in two years, growing from $5 billion in the second quarter of 2024 to a record $21.6 billion in the second quarter of 2026. | Robinhood的边际书在两年内翻了两番多,从2024年第二季度的50亿美元增加到2026年第二季度的创纪录的216亿美元. |
| 113 | Robinhood notes that came during a period of broader growth across its platform. | Robinhood的笔记 出现在了整个平台的 更广泛的增长时期。 |
| 114 | Total assets grew more than two and a half times, while retirement assets nearly quadrupled. | 总资产增长了两倍半以上,而退休资产几乎翻了两番。 |
| 115 | Robinhood's perspective, margin is a great product. | Robinhood的观点,边角是一个伟大的产品. |
| 116 | It's very low risk because you have the collateral sitting next to you. | 风险很小,因为你身边有抵押品 |
| 117 | And so if there's an issue, it's moving in real time. | 所以如果有问题,它会实时移动. |
| 118 | That's different than a lot of other type of lending where collateral is not able to be liquidated or a person's credit profile is changing real time. | 这不同于很多其他类型的贷款,其中抵押品无法清算或一个人的信用状况正在实时变化. |
| 119 | You don't even know it. | 你甚至不知道这一点。 |
| 120 | If you look at the offers that Robinhood has had in the market over the past couple of years, | 如果你看看Robinhood在过去几年里 在市场上得到的报价 |
| 121 | it's been targeting those customers with very low margin rates, very high yields on their cash, having very little friction in investing and having everything at your fingertips. | 它一直以那些客户为目标,他们的利润非常低, 他们的现金非常高, 几乎没有摩擦 投资 和所有的东西在你的指尖。 |
| 122 | And then having a really seamless mobile experience where it's not clunky plays a big part of that. | 然后有一个非常无缝的移动体验, 在那里它不是clunky 发挥很大的一部分。 |
| 123 | A Robinhood spokesperson told CNBC that its promotions are not specifically aimed at margin traders. | 一位Robinhood的发言人告诉CNBC,其晋升并非专门针对边际交易商. |
| 124 | They're designed for a broad range of customers. | 设计对象为广大客户. |
| 125 | The company also says investors must pass an eligibility review to use margin and that it provides tools to help them understand their leverage and risk. | 公司还表示,投资者必须通过资格审查才能使用利润率,公司还提供工具帮助他们了解他们的杠杆和风险. |
| 126 | But making margin easier and cheaper to use can also put more responsibility on the investor to understand the risk. | 但是,使保证金更容易和便宜地使用,也可以使投资者承担更多的责任来了解风险。 |
| 127 | If customers that are not sophisticated use margin and are not making sophisticated investments, | 如果那些不精密的客户使用利润和不精密的投资, |
| 128 | then in theory they could have an issue and that could knock them backwards in terms of their investing future. | 从理论上说,他们可能有一个问题,这可以使他们的投资前景倒退。 |
| 129 | You want to provide access, you want to educate people, but also you want people to have good financial outcomes. | 你想提供获得的机会,想教育人们, 但也希望人们有良好的经济成果。 |
| 130 | This is gambling with an asterisk. | 这是用星号赌博。 |
| 131 | Somebody else can do the exact same thing that I'm doing, like literally the exact same buys, | 别人可以做同样的事情 我在做什么, 像字面上相同的买, |
| 132 | but it could be gambling on their end if they're not fully understanding the risk that they're taking. | 但如果他们不完全理解自己冒的风险 可能就是赌博 |
| 133 | I think that's when it's called gambling, but when you do, it's little less gambling. | 我认为这时候叫做赌博,但当你赌博时,赌博就少了一点. |
| 134 | A record amount of margin debt isn't necessarily alarming on its own. | 创纪录的边际债务本身不一定令人震惊。 |
| 135 | When the stock market is worth more overall, investors can carry more debt without leverage being necessarily unusually high. | 当股票市场整体价值更高时,投资者可以承担更多的债务,而不必施加异常高的杠杆。 |
| 136 | There's a very strong relationship between absolute margin balances and absolute levels of U.S. | 美国的绝对比值平衡和绝对水平之间有着非常强的关系. |
| 137 | equity market cap. | 股票市场上限。 |
| 138 | If you look at the chart, they both go in the same direction. | 如果你看看图表, 他们都朝同一个方向走。 |
| 139 | So obviously U.S. equities are in the zip code of all-time highs, | 很明显,美国股票 是在拉链代码 有史以来最高, |
| 140 | and so therefore it's not surprising that overall margin balances would be correlated directionally with that. | 因此,总的差值平衡 与这个方向相关并不奇怪 |
| 141 | There are pockets of the market that are clearly highly speculative. | 市场上有些小块地区显然具有高度投机性。 |
| 142 | We're probably marginally above average, but the historical relationships aren't ringing alarm bells right now. | 我们可能略高于平均水平, 但历史关系 没有敲响警钟现在。 |
| 143 | Not all of the increase comes from new borrowing decisions. | 并非所有增加额都来自新的借款决定。 |
| 144 | Some of it happens automatically as prices move or as large firms adjust their borrowing to maintain the same level of leverage. | 其中一些是随着价格的变动或随着大公司调整其借贷以保持同等的杠杆水平而自动发生的. |
| 145 | So not many Wall Street insiders are hitting the panic button yet, | 华尔街的内线还没有多少人按到恐慌按钮 |
| 146 | but some experts think the rise in margin debt could be leading to unpredictability in the market. | 但一些专家认为,边际债务的增加可能导致市场的不可预测性。 |
| 147 | This rise in margin debt has been happening for the past 12 months. | 过去12个月里,差值债务一直在增加。 |
| 148 | So it's been incremental pressure that's being added to the overall stock market. | 因此,在整体股市上增加了增量压力. |
| 149 | Some days I've noticed this year when you can't quite put a finger on what's going on in the stock market, | 有些时候,我注意到今年 你对股票市场的情况 无能为力, |
| 150 | it's margin debt most likely. | 很可能是边际债务 |
| 151 | It's influencing the overall direction of the market. | 它影响了市场的整体方向. |
| 152 | And we don't even fully understand how, because it's being done on the back end in a lot of ways. | 我们甚至没有完全理解它是如何做到的, 因为它在许多方面都是在后面做的。 |
| 153 | The broader market risk appears when many leveraged investors come under the same pressure at the same time. | 当许多杠杆投资者同时受到同样的压力时,市场风险就会扩大。 |
| 154 | Once prices begin falling, it can intensify a move in a highly leveraged market. | 一旦价格开始下跌,就可能加剧高度杠杆化的市场。 |
| 155 | So like the premise of gains beget gains, it turns into losses beget losses, and that's what's troublesome. | 因此,就像收益得到收益的前提一样,它变成损失得到损失,这就是麻烦所在. |
| 156 | I don't really pay attention to the macro economics that closely. | 我真的不注意那些紧密的宏观经济学. |
| 157 | It doesn't affect my investment decision because the only thing I've ever been doing is buying Tesla | 这并不影响我的投资决定 因为我唯一做的就是买下特斯拉 |
| 158 | and accumulating as many shares as possible. | 并积累尽可能多的股份。 |
该视频共有字幕 158 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格