重磅！IMF总裁对话美联储主席沃什：什么力量正在重塑未来全球
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | A very good morning to everybody in the audience and those who may be watching in | 祝观众和观众早上愉快 |
| 0:05 | the overflow room. | 溢出的房间。 |
| 0:06 | There is a great deal of interest in this conversation because | 这场对话很受关注,因为 |
| 0:11 | of who it is with. | 和谁在一起? |
| 0:14 | I am delighted to introduce Chairman Kevin Warsh. | 我高兴地介绍凯文·沃什主席。 |
| 0:22 | For those | 给那些 |
| 0:22 | of you who may not be fully familiar with his incredible professional career, let | 你们这些可能不完全熟悉 他不可思议的职业,让我们 |
| 0:31 | me say a couple of words. | 我讲几句话 |
| 0:33 | Chairman Warsh was a keen scholar of policymaking | Warsh主席是一位精通决策的学者 |
| 0:45 | throughout his entire life. | 在他的一生中, |
展开字幕全文（561 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A very good morning to everybody in the audience and those who may be watching in | 祝观众和观众早上愉快 |
| 2 | the overflow room. | 溢出的房间。 |
| 3 | There is a great deal of interest in this conversation because | 这场对话很受关注,因为 |
| 4 | of who it is with. | 和谁在一起? |
| 5 | I am delighted to introduce Chairman Kevin Warsh. | 我高兴地介绍凯文·沃什主席。 |
| 6 | For those | 给那些 |
| 7 | of you who may not be fully familiar with his incredible professional career, let | 你们这些可能不完全熟悉 他不可思议的职业,让我们 |
| 8 | me say a couple of words. | 我讲几句话 |
| 9 | Chairman Warsh was a keen scholar of policymaking | Warsh主席是一位精通决策的学者 |
| 10 | throughout his entire life. | 在他的一生中, |
| 11 | He spent his career at this intersection of monetary | 他的职业生涯是在金钱的交汇处度过的 |
| 12 | policy, finance and economic policy making and he has been able to look at | 政策、金融和经济政策的制定,他一直能够研究 |
| 13 | issues that concern not only the financial system but the lives of people | 金融制度和人民生活的问题 |
| 14 | from multiple perspectives as an academic, in the financial markets and in the public | 从学术、金融市场和公众的多重角度 |
| 15 | sector. | 部门。 |
| 16 | So where did he come from just before he took over the chairmanship of | 在他接任主席前 他从哪里来的? |
| 17 | the Federal Reserve? | 美联储? |
| 18 | He was a Sheppard family distinguished visiting fellow in | 他是谢帕德家族的一位杰出的来访者 |
| 19 | economics at the Hoover Institute, a lecturer at the Stanford Graduate School | 胡佛研究所经济学,斯坦福研究生院讲师 |
| 20 | of Business and partner in a Duke family office. | 公爵家族办公室的生意伙伴 |
| 21 | He came to us from working at | 他来我们这里工作 |
| 22 | Morgan Stanley. | 摩根・斯坦利。 |
| 23 | He advised President George W. Bush on capital markets and | 他向乔治·W·布什总统提出了关于资本市场和 |
| 24 | banking issues but my favorite part of Kevin's career is when he first was at | 银行问题 但我最喜欢的 部分凯文的职业生涯 是当他第一次在 |
| 25 | the Federal Reserve. | 美联储 |
| 26 | At what time? | 什么时候? |
| 27 | In the most challenging and taxing time. | 在最富有挑战性和课税时间。 |
| 28 | He was | 他曾经是 |
| 29 | there during the global financial crisis and he was there as the youngest ever | 他是有史以来最年轻的 |
| 30 | governor at the age of 35 and he is now 36. | 州长35岁,现在36岁。 |
| 31 | He has very deep, impressively deep | 他有非常深,令人印象深刻的深度 |
| 32 | understanding of financial markets, instrumental in navigating one of the most | * 了解金融市场,有助于导航其中最强的 |
| 33 | complicated periods in recent history and set at the table with those who had | 近代史上复杂的时期,与那些 |
| 34 | made at that time critical decisions, the most consequential decisions for many in | 关键决定的作出,对许多国家来说是 |
| 35 | his lifetime. | 他的一生 他的一生 他的一生 |
| 36 | So he saw crisis from the inside. | 所以他从里面看到了危机。 |
| 37 | I do not wish you ever to repeat | 我不希望你再说一遍 |
| 38 | this experience and as we all know in May this year he became chairman of the | 正如我们都知道的,今年5月他成为了 |
| 39 | Federal Reserve. | 美联储. |
| 40 | Great choice. | 伟大的选择。 |
| 41 | I can say with admiration that you bring of course | 我可以钦佩地说,你当然带来了 |
| 42 | a lot of experience but one quality that you bring that I rarely see is you have | 很多经验,但你带来的一个品质 我很少看到你有 |
| 43 | profoundly thoughtful response to questions and you never shy away of listening | 深思熟虑地回答问题 你从不回避听 |
| 44 | to opinions that may be different from yours. | 与你不同的意见。 |
| 45 | Now I can say when Kevin agreed to | 现在我可以说,当凯文同意 |
| 46 | be here I thought okay so let me see how we can get the conversation that is about | 在这儿,我还以为可以,所以让我看看 怎样才能得到对话 |
| 47 | the broad transformational trends and dig deep into your thinking. | 广泛转变趋势 深入你的思维 |
| 48 | I want to start | 我想开始 |
| 49 | from where the world is today. | 从今天的世界。 |
| 50 | We are here at the annual meetings. | 我们在这里参加年度会议。 |
| 51 | We talk about a | 我们谈论一个 |
| 52 | resilient world economy but also about the fragility of this resilience, the | 具有复原力的世界经济,但也考虑到这种复原力的脆弱性, |
| 53 | divergence across countries. | 各国之间的差异。 |
| 54 | We discuss what are the sources of resilience, could | 我们讨论什么是恢复力的来源,可以 |
| 55 | they continue, would they last, what it would take for them to last and I thought | 他们继续,如果他们持久, 他们需要什么,我以为 |
| 56 | that it would be a great start for today to hear from you. | 今天听到你的消息 将是一个伟大的开端 |
| 57 | How do you see the world | 你怎么看待这个世界 |
| 58 | economy, how do you see that resilience on which we have been relying, would it | 经济,你如何看待我们一直依赖的复原力? |
| 59 | last? | 最后一个? |
| 60 | What is your advice to policy makers how they orient themselves in a time of | 你对决策者有何建议,他们如何在这样一个时代为自己定位? |
| 61 | higher uncertainty? | 更高的不确定性? |
| 62 | So first of all thank you very much Kristalina, full disclosure | 所以首先非常感谢你 克里斯塔琳娜 |
| 63 | Kristalina and I are old friends so those questions sounded harder but there's some | 克里斯塔琳娜和我都是老朋友 所以那些问题听起来更难解决 但有些问题 |
| 64 | read that I will differ with is she said her favorite part of my resume is the global | 读到我会不同意 她说她最喜欢的部分 我的简历是全球 |
| 65 | financial crisis. | 金融危机。 |
| 66 | That is not my favorite part. | 这不是我最喜欢的部分。 |
| 67 | And when I come back to meetings of | 当我回来开会时 |
| 68 | the IMF, come back to meetings of the G20, I'm obviously incredibly honored to be in | IMF,回到20国集团的会议, 我显然非常荣幸能加入 |
| 69 | this post. | 这个帖子 |
| 70 | This is a hugely consequential time but when I walk into the IMF, when I | 这是一个巨大的后果,但当我走进IMF,当我 |
| 71 | come to these meetings I will say I have still a little bit of scar tissue from the deepest | 来参加这些会面,我会说 我还有一点疤痕组织 从最深处 |
| 72 | darkest days, the global financial crisis. | 最黑暗的日子,全球金融危机。 |
| 73 | I might be over scarred from that period | 那段时间我可能伤得很重 |
| 74 | but better over scarred than under scarred I presume. | 但比在伤痕之下好 |
| 75 | So we can go in any direction you | 这样我们就可以朝你的方向走 |
| 76 | want. | 想要吗? |
| 77 | I think you were asking about the state of the global economy. | 我想你是在问全球经济状况 |
| 78 | So what I've tried | 所以我试过了 |
| 79 | to do which might be a little bit of a change for policy makers is what I tried to do is | 做对决策者来说可能有点改变的 我试图做的是 |
| 80 | look outside the window. | 看着窗外 |
| 81 | In our business and economics and policy making circles we can | 在我们的商业和经济学 以及决策圈,我们可以 |
| 82 | focus on the past, on the history and look at data which we think of sometimes as contemporaneous | 关注过去,关注历史,审视我们有时认为是同时期的数据 |
| 83 | data but it's really lag data. | 数据,但它真的是滞后的数据。 |
| 84 | It's about what happened. | 这是关于发生了什么。 |
| 85 | We can also focus a lot of | 我们还可以集中很多精力 |
| 86 | our time and attention on the future. | 我们的时间和对未来的关注。 |
| 87 | We certainly want to know what 2027 and 2028 are about | 我们当然想知道什么是2027和2028 |
| 88 | but none of us are perfect forecasters. | 但我们都不是完美的预测者。 |
| 89 | So what I try to do in thinking about what's | 所以,我试图做 在思考什么是 |
| 90 | going on is I try to look out that window as clearly as I can at the Federal Reserve | 我尽量从窗外看清楚美联储 |
| 91 | where we do that about eight times a year when we sit down for these FOMC meetings. | 当我们每年坐着参加这些FOMC会议时 大约8次 |
| 92 | We did that I don't know a month or so ago at the September meeting and we came to a | 我们做了,我不知道一个多月前 在九月会议上,我们来到一个 |
| 93 | judgment. | 判决。 |
| 94 | What are we seeing in the global economy as it affects the U.S.? | 全球经济对美国的影响是什么? |
| 95 | I would say | 我会说 |
| 96 | broadly over the month or so that's transpired since then the world has broadly conformed | 大约一个月左右 从那时起,世界已经基本适应了 |
| 97 | to our expectations. | 我们的期望。 |
| 98 | We'll be meeting a couple more times this year and that will be the | 我们今年会再见面几次 |
| 99 | crystallizing moment at which we're going to look out the window. | 结晶的时刻,我们将 看着窗外。 |
| 100 | What do we see? | 我们看到了什么? |
| 101 | What's | 何谓 |
| 102 | happening to output? | 正在发生输出吗 ? |
| 103 | What's happening to employment? | 就业情况如何? |
| 104 | What's happening to inflation? | 通货膨胀是怎么回事? |
| 105 | And in those | 还有那些 |
| 106 | intermeeting periods especially occasions like this when Kristalina and I get to sit | 我和克里斯塔琳娜坐在一起的时候 |
| 107 | down without the cameras and the microphones and I get to sit down with my G20 colleagues | 没有摄像机和麦克风 我就能和二十国集团的同事坐下来 |
| 108 | I'm doing at least as much listening as I am talking. | 我至少听得跟我说的一样多 |
| 109 | Obviously the Federal Reserve | 显然美联储 |
| 110 | and our policies spill over to the rest of the world but their policies spill back to | 我们的政策波及世界其他国家 但政策波及世界 |
| 111 | us too. | 我们也一样。 |
| 112 | So I had made judgments about a month ago. | 所以我一个月前做了判决 |
| 113 | I'll make some judgments at the October | 我会在十月做出一些判断 |
| 114 | meeting and the December meeting but broadly let me just step back and give you now slightly | 和12月的会议,但大致上让我退一步 现在给你一点 |
| 115 | dated views which probably still hold. | 可能还存在的观点 |
| 116 | One is 20 years ago at meetings like this we talked | 一个是20年前在这样的会议上 我们谈过的 |
| 117 | about secular stagnation. | 关于世俗停滞。 |
| 118 | Boy that seems, I don't know if it was as inaccurate then | 小子,看来,我不知道是不是那么不准确 |
| 119 | as it seems now but right now we have structural growth. | 现在看来,但现在我们有了结构性增长。 |
| 120 | We have an investment surge. | 我们的投资激增。 |
| 121 | It's | 这是 |
| 122 | not hitting every country at the same element but in the United States we're having a massive | 但在美国,我们有一个巨大的 |
| 123 | investment surge and it makes me think Kristalina, the idea of secular stagnation suggested | 这让我觉得克里斯塔琳娜 长期停滞的想法 |
| 124 | that that was somehow inevitable. | 这是不可避免的。 |
| 125 | There was nothing policy makers like you and me could | 没有你我这样的决策者可以 |
| 126 | do about it. | 做到这一点。 |
| 127 | We learned anything since my last time sitting in a post like this and | 自从我上次坐这种职位后 我们学到了什么 |
| 128 | now there's a lot we can do about it. | 现在我们可以做很多事情 |
| 129 | Policy matters. | 政策事项。 |
| 130 | The investment surge isn't by accident. | 投资激增并非偶然. |
| 131 | It's because of the consequence of good policy, both macroeconomic policy but also as you've | 是因为好政策的结果, 既是宏观经济政策,也是因为你 |
| 132 | heard about in the last week or two from new Nobel Prize winners, the micro foundations | 上个星期有两位新诺贝尔奖得主 微基金会的消息 |
| 133 | and decent macro policy and strong micro foundations can lead to an investment surge. | 良好的宏观经济政策和强大的微观基础可导致投资激增。 |
| 134 | It's probably | 也许吧 |
| 135 | the most important thing that's happening in the global economy on the upside but to | 在全球经济中发生的最重要的事情 |
| 136 | be balanced as we central bankers have to be, I came out of meetings here yesterday | 平衡点,我们中央银行家必须如此 我昨天在这里开会 |
| 137 | and today and it's hard to be in a discussion with central bankers and not compare notes | 而今天 很难跟中央银行家讨论 也难以比较 |
| 138 | and hear the same thing about the surge in prices. | 并听到同样的事情 关于价格暴涨。 |
| 139 | It obviously affects each of us differently. | 它显然对我们每个人的影响不同。 |
| 140 | At the Federal Reserve we made very clear that we would deliver price stability and | 在美联储,我们明确表示,我们将实现价格稳定, |
| 141 | a dose of accommodation about a month ago. | 大约一个月前的住宿量 |
| 142 | I don't prejudge meetings. | 我不预先判断会议 |
| 143 | I don't believe | иぃ獺 |
| 144 | in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year but | 说到现在,我本可以 在今年剩余时间的会议中做什么 |
| 145 | that was the situation. | 这就是情况。 |
| 146 | You just disappointed half of the audience or more. | 你只是失望 一半或更多的观众。 |
| 147 | They can all | 他们都可以 |
| 148 | turn it off. | 关掉它。 |
| 149 | It's a new chapter at the Fed and we're not in that business anymore but | 这是美联储的一个新篇章 我们不再从事这种生意了 |
| 150 | we can go in any direction you'd like. | 我们可以朝任何方向走 |
| 151 | Well, this is a very good direction. | 嗯,这是一个非常好的方向。 |
| 152 | So we talk | 所以,我们谈 |
| 153 | about the, you're right to say, we look out of the window and what we see is an economy | 你说得对,我们从窗外看,我们看到的是经济 |
| 154 | that in some places is booming. | 有些地方很兴旺 |
| 155 | It is being dragged upward mostly by enthusiasm about | 它被拖向上方 主要是对 |
| 156 | AI but then you go into other places and other factors especially the impact of war is dragging | AI,然后你到其他地方去 其他因素 特别是战争的影响拖累 |
| 157 | economies down. | 经济下滑。 |
| 158 | One thing that is happening everywhere whether your economy is going up | 无论你的经济是否上升 |
| 159 | or it's going down is the stubborn inflation, price pressures that are coming from everywhere | 或者它正在下降 是顽固的通货膨胀, 价格压力 从各地 |
| 160 | and one of the sources of course is the energy shock in the Middle East and the energy shock | 当然,其中一个来源是中东的能量冲击和能量冲击 |
| 161 | from war but one of the sources is this investment enthusiasm about AI. | 但其中一个来源是这种对AI的投资热情。 |
| 162 | So my question is from | 所以我的问题来自 |
| 163 | a monetary policy perspective. | 货币政策观点。 |
| 164 | How should we think about the impact of AI in the short | 简而言之,我们应该如何思考AI的影响? |
| 165 | term, in the long term? | 从长远来看,是长期? |
| 166 | Is there anything that we are paying too little attention and | 还有什么是我们太少注意和 |
| 167 | so it's a great question, a couple of things. | 所以这是一个伟大的问题, 一些事情。 |
| 168 | First, Chris Lee, you pronounce it AI, in | 首先,克里斯・李,你宣布它AI,在 |
| 169 | the U.S. we now pronounce it SI, just so you know. | 美国,我们现在宣布它SI, 只是让你知道。 |
| 170 | So it's probably... Can I say potato, | 所以这大概... 我可以说土豆, |
| 171 | potato? | 马铃薯? |
| 172 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 173 | I don't know how that's going to translate for the countries around | 我不知道这怎么解释 周围的国家 |
| 174 | the world with teams of folks. | 全世界都有一群人 |
| 175 | I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably | 我想说这种新技术的出现可能就是 |
| 176 | the most consequential change to the U.S. and the global economy in my lifetime. | 我一生中对美国和全球经济的 影响最大的变化 |
| 177 | So | 这么说 |
| 178 | I take it seriously but as a central banker also soberly, responsibly. | 我认真对待它,但作为一个中央银行家 也清醒,负责。 |
| 179 | I'd say it's going | 我会说它去 |
| 180 | to do several things. | 来做一些事情。 |
| 181 | First, it's obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before | 首先,它显然打击了经济的需求方 |
| 182 | it's going to hit the supply side of the economy. | 它会打击经济的供应方。 |
| 183 | So if you're a central banker and you're in | 所以,如果你是一个中央银行家 你加入 |
| 184 | the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you've got to recognize | 努力保证稳定的价格和充分就业, 你必须认识到 |
| 185 | this is a shock. | 这是惊吓。 |
| 186 | But it's a positive supply shock in the medium term. | 但中期出现正供应休克. |
| 187 | I do fundamentally | 根本上说 |
| 188 | believe that. | 相信这一点。 |
| 189 | But on the path to that positive supply shock, we're seeing increases in aggregate | 但是,在正向供应冲击的道路上,我们看到总量增加 |
| 190 | demand. | 需求。 |
| 191 | That just is what it is. | 就是这样 |
| 192 | But I think of this shock differently than those other | 但我觉得这次的冲击 不同于其他的 |
| 193 | shocks you talked about. | 你说的冲击 |
| 194 | Shocks of war and military conflict and the rest. | 战争和军事冲突的震撼 以及其他的 |
| 195 | This one there | 这个 |
| 196 | really is I think a huge benefit to the global economy, to the U.S. economy over the horizon. | 我认为,这对全球经济,对美国经济来说 是一个巨大的好处。 |
| 197 | So that's one comment. | 因此,这是一个评论。 |
| 198 | Second, it's a big deal for central banks because we're in the business | 第二,这对中央银行来说是件大事,因为我们是做生意的 |
| 199 | of trying to in some ways distill noisy data all over the world. | 试图以某种方式 提炼出全世界吵闹的数据 |
| 200 | We get some of that from | 我们从那里得到一些 |
| 201 | official statistics in the U.S. from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic | 美国官方统计数据 来自劳工统计局,经济局 |
| 202 | Affairs. | 事务。 |
| 203 | We torture data with old fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying | 我们用古老的模型来拷问数据 试图找出背后的 |
| 204 | inflation trends. | 通货膨胀趋势。 |
| 205 | Not so long from now, it won't be torture. | 不久以后,不会是酷刑. |
| 206 | We will have access at the | 我们会进入 |
| 207 | fingertips of central banks to all the information in the world. | 央行的指尖 指向世界上所有的信息 |
| 208 | And we'll be able to use new | 我们就可以使用新的 |
| 209 | analytical tools to distill that data. | 分析工具 提取数据。 |
| 210 | So when we get new information, we're going | 所以,当我们得到新的信息,我们要去 |
| 211 | to have a lot more confidence in what it tells us as we're looking outside the window and | 更加自信地告诉我们 我们看着窗外 |
| 212 | saying is that real or is that lagged and noisy data subject to mismeasurement. | 表示数据是真实的,还是被误测的滞后和吵闹的数据。 |
| 213 | So I | 所以说 |
| 214 | think it's going to fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy as a second point. | 认为这将会从根本上改变货币政策的行为,作为第二点. |
| 215 | Third, it's going to change the real economy. | 第三,要改变实体经济. |
| 216 | We don't know in the next 12 or 18 months | 我们不知道接下来的12或18个月 |
| 217 | its effect on employment. | 对就业的影响。 |
| 218 | But if you believe like I believe, which is it will make economies | 但如果你像我一样相信 那就是经济 |
| 219 | and countries that put it to good use more productive, that it's going to make it so | 以及那些善用它的国家 将使它更有成效, |
| 220 | we will have more wealth, then that has to be a very good thing. | 我们将会有更多的财富, 那么,那必须是一件非常好的事情。 |
| 221 | But the path from where | 但路从何而来 |
| 222 | we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one. | 我们可能有一个非常颠簸。 |
| 223 | Bumpy in our understanding of the technology. | 我们对于技术的理解很模糊 |
| 224 | Bumpy because we really don't know what the market structure is going to be of these new | 胖子,因为我们真的不知道 这些新的市场结构会是什么 |
| 225 | technologies. | 技术。 |
| 226 | Who's going to get to make the money? | 谁能得财. |
| 227 | What are the consequences for those | 后果如何? |
| 228 | that bet that they were going to make money but the market structure doesn't allow it? | 但市场结构不允许? |
| 229 | So I want you to hear from me optimism, but optimism leavened by the seriousness of purpose | 所以我希望你能听到我的乐观, 但乐观的离开 目的的严重性 |
| 230 | to the day jobs that you and I have. | 为你和我的日常工作。 |
| 231 | And I think it's an exciting development and it's | 我认为这是一个令人兴奋的发展,它是 |
| 232 | an innovation that I think a decade from now they'll look back on and they'll say this | 十年后他们就会回头看 然后说 |
| 233 | was hugely consequential. | 后果非常严重 |
| 234 | So our job as policy makers to take it with that same kind of focus. | 因此,我们作为决策者的工作 以同样的重点。 |
| 235 | I'll just say one more thing. | 我再说一句 |
| 236 | On big hard questions that don't matter much to the current | 对当前来说不重要的大难题 |
| 237 | policy conjuncture, my view is we at the central bank need to invest in the next policy conjuncture. | 政策交汇点 我认为我们中央银行 需要投资 下一个政策交汇点。 |
| 238 | So among the external task forces that I initiated about four or five months ago is one on productivity | 所以我在大约四个或五个月前成立的 外部工作组中,有一个是生产力问题 |
| 239 | and jobs. | 还有工作 |
| 240 | We're going to have our first field hearing of a task force on November 16th in | 我们将在11月16日 举行第一次现场听证会 |
| 241 | the Bay Area where we're going to wrestle with these issues. | 湾区,我们要去 与这些问题交锋。 |
| 242 | I'm pretty sure I've got | 我敢肯定,我有 |
| 243 | the right questions, not sure I have the right answers. | 正确的问题, 不确定我有正确的答案。 |
| 244 | And so we've got a group of outside | 所以我们有一群人在外面 |
| 245 | experts both on the task force and people in the broader community to help us engage | 工作队的专家和广大社区的人帮助我们参与 |
| 246 | on that. | 在那个。 |
| 247 | And hopefully there'll be fruits of that, not just for us in the US, but these | 希望有果实 不只是我们在美国, 而且是这些 |
| 248 | efforts that we're doing and investigating at the Fed, these are global public goods. | 我们在美联储做的努力和调查 这些都是全球公益物 |
| 249 | And might the IMF, might other G20 central banks learn, decide to adopt some of these | IMF,可能其他20国集团中央银行学习,决定采用其中一些 |
| 250 | things of their own? | 他们自己的事? |
| 251 | That's the hope and expectation. | 这就是希望和期望。 |
| 252 | The better they do, the better we do. | 他们越好,我们就越好。 |
| 253 | Very much look forward to that. | 非常期待这一点。 |
| 254 | So to avoid the linguistic controversy, let's call it | 所以为了避免语言上的争议,让我们称之为 |
| 255 | the NHI, the non-human intellect. | 非人类智慧。 |
| 256 | So if we look at the non-human intellect, the non-human | 所以,如果我们看 非人类的智慧, 非人类 |
| 257 | intellect, that development that is incredibly rapid, we do have to think about the impact | 智力,这种发展 令人难以置信的迅速, 我们必须思考 影响 |
| 258 | on inflation, short and long term. | 关于通货膨胀,短期和长期。 |
| 259 | We do have to think about impact on financial stability. | 我们必须考虑对金融稳定的影响。 |
| 260 | And as you said, there is the excitement of what it may mean for productivity. | 正如你说的,它可能意味着生产力的兴奋。 |
| 261 | On this | 这个 |
| 262 | triangle of inflation, possibly disinflation in the future, the impact on financial stability | 通货膨胀三角地带,可能在未来减少通货膨胀,对金融稳定的影响 |
| 263 | risk and the upside on productivity, which one you get your task forces to concentrate | 风险和对生产力的倾斜, 你得到你的工作队集中 |
| 264 | most on? | 最多吗? |
| 265 | What is, in your view, the one issue that dominates monetary policy makers? | 在你看来,什么是支配金融决策者的唯一问题? |
| 266 | Yes. | 对 |
| 267 | So first, here's my working proposition about task forces. | 首先,这是我关于工作队的工作建议。 |
| 268 | Because I've been on task | 因为我一直在执行任务 |
| 269 | forces like you have before we were in these jobs. | 像你这样的力量 在我们做这些工作之前 |
| 270 | You want to ask them the questions and | 你想问他们的问题和 |
| 271 | to be full disclosure, I check in with each of my five task forces periodically, but you | 我定期与我的五个特遣部队联系,但你 |
| 272 | also want to let them be themselves. | 也想让他们成为自己。 |
| 273 | The idea of the task force on productivity and jobs, | 生产力和就业工作队的想法, |
| 274 | on data collection, on inflation, is to let them produce new intellectual capital and | 关于数据收集,关于通货膨胀,是让他们产生新的知识资本, |
| 275 | to drop that on the Federal Open Market Committee, to share their views with the broader audience | 在联邦公开市场委员会上放弃这一点,向更广泛的受众介绍他们的看法; |
| 276 | and see whether that catalyzes new thinking. | 看看这是否催化了新的思维。 |
| 277 | Otherwise, you and I and our peers in central | 否则,你和我和我们在中央的同行 |
| 278 | banking, we could just push the same ideas around. | 银行,我们可以推 相同的想法周围。 |
| 279 | The idea is to really let them do | 想法是真正让他们做 |
| 280 | it. | 这个 |
| 281 | There are tail risks associated with all shocks. | 所有冲击都会产生尾部风险。 |
| 282 | I'm not going to try to bite off one | 我不会试图咬掉一个 |
| 283 | tail and say it's all to the good. | 尾随并说一切善根. |
| 284 | What I'd say is the U.S. is investing through the private | 我想说的是美国通过私人投资 |
| 285 | sector capital in a range of new technologies, in a range of new companies, with bets on | 一系列新技术中的部门资本,一系列新公司,赌注 |
| 286 | different parts of the market structure. | 市场结构的不同部分。 |
| 287 | In my business, we don't have to figure out who's | 在我的事业中,我们不必知道谁是 |
| 288 | right or wrong. | 对或错。 |
| 289 | That's what financial markets are for doing, but we do want to step back | 金融市场就是这样的 但我们确实想退后 |
| 290 | and ask ourselves the question, if various scenarios were to happen, what are the implications | 并问自己,如果发生各种情况,会产生什么影响? |
| 291 | for our remit? | 为了我们的职权范围? |
| 292 | Our remit, as you know, we talk about as stable prices and full employment, | 我们的职权范围,你知道, 我们谈论稳定的价格和充分就业, |
| 293 | but inching into that, again, with the history of my visits to the IMF 20 years ago, we also | 但鉴于我20年前访问国际货币基金组织的历史,我们同样 |
| 294 | want to think about financial stability risks. | 想要考虑金融稳定的风险。 |
| 295 | The way I think about it might be a little | 我的想法可能有点 |
| 296 | bit different. | 有点不同。 |
| 297 | I don't think the central bank or the international policymaking set, that | 我认为中央银行 或国际决策设置, |
| 298 | we should be in the business of stopping variance away from modal outcome. | 我们应努力阻止偏离模式的结果。 |
| 299 | What we want to ask | 我们要问的是什么 |
| 300 | ourselves, though, are there negative tail side risks that we can do something about? | 但是,我们自己是否有负面的尾巴风险 我们可以做些什么? |
| 301 | We have to be pretty humble about that question. | 这个问题我们必须谦虚一点 |
| 302 | I've given the task force every ability to | 我给了特遣部队一切能力 |
| 303 | ask themselves, what are the upsides, what are the downsides, and what are the implications | 问自己,什么是颠倒,什么是逆境,什么是影响 |
| 304 | for us? | 为了我们? |
| 305 | The same way I'm not going to prejudge FOMC meetings, I'm going to try not to prejudge | 同样的,我不会预先判断FOMC的会议, 我会尽量不预先判断 |
| 306 | where they come from. | 他们来自哪里? |
| 307 | The task forces, yes. | 特遣部队 是的 |
| 308 | Very good. | 很不错。 |
| 309 | By the way, Kevin says we both have been on task forces. | 顺便说一句 Kevin说我们都是特遣部队的 |
| 310 | He was leading one that resulted in the Queen of England reporting the results to the Parliament, | 他领导了一个结果 英格兰女王向议会报告结果 |
| 311 | so it's a very special chairmanship you offer. | 所以,这是一个非常特殊的主席 你提供。 |
| 312 | Now, I counted, Kevin, today is your 148th | 我数过了,凯文,今天是你第148次 |
| 313 | day on the job. | 一天的工作时间。 |
| 314 | Actually, there is a little risk in my calculation because it depends | 实际上,我的计算有点风险,因为它取决于 |
| 315 | whether you calculate in Washington or here in Bangkok, but we are about there. | 不管是在华盛顿还是在曼谷, 但我们都在那里。 |
| 316 | What is | 这是什么 |
| 317 | that you have reached a conclusion now that you didn't have on the first day? | 你现在得出了第一天没有的结论? |
| 318 | How do you | 你好吗? |
| 319 | see moving into the job further? | 看到继续工作了吗? |
| 320 | Yeah, so it's a fair question. | 是啊,所以这是一个公平的问题。 |
| 321 | I'm probably not best at introspection, so full disclosure | 我可能不擅长回顾, 所以充分披露 |
| 322 | on that. | 在那个。 |
| 323 | I'll begin by saying I'm sure glad I was there before. | 我首先要说,我很高兴我在那里之前。 |
| 324 | If I hadn't been at the | 如果我没有去过 |
| 325 | Federal Reserve for five and a half years, especially during a period of some consequence, | 5年半的联邦储备 特别是在一个有后果的时期 |
| 326 | I think I'd probably be a bit more hesitant to introduce new ideas, to practice new ideas | 我想我可能有点犹豫 提出新的想法, 实践新的想法 |
| 327 | inside the Federal Reserve of 23,000 people, to sort of probe the question of can we create | 在美联储的23 000人中 探究我们能否创造 |
| 328 | a new chapter at the Federal Reserve, making the best of the Fed's traditions, but recognizing | 在美联储的一个新篇章, 使美联储的传统最好,但承认 |
| 329 | this is a brand new world. | 这是一个全新的世界。 |
| 330 | So first I would say five and a half years of time served, I think has served me well. | 因此,首先我要说,服务了五年半的时间,我认为,服务于我的时间很好。 |
| 331 | It's said that sometimes someone that when they join an organization, they want to bring | 有人说,有时候当他们加入一个组织时, 他们想要带来 |
| 332 | the fresh perspectives of an outsider. | 外人的新视角 |
| 333 | I will balance that by saying you also have to have | 我将平衡这一点,通过说 你也不得不 |
| 334 | some of the knowledge of an insider. | 一些内幕知识 |
| 335 | I'm trying to think of myself as being on the edge of | 我试图认为自己 处于边缘 |
| 336 | the inside. | 内心 |
| 337 | So what are my lessons from 148 days? | 我从148天开始的课是什么? |
| 338 | First, there's an incredible depth of talent at the | 首先,有令人难以置信的深度 人才在 |
| 339 | Federal Reserve. | 美联储. |
| 340 | I must say, a little piece of me worried, I'd been gone for 15 years. | 我必须说,我担心的一点点, 我离开了15年。 |
| 341 | I wonder whether all the talent might have left at some point in those 15 years. | 我想知道这15年里所有的人才 是否都离开了 |
| 342 | There's | 还有 |
| 343 | an amazing amount of talent that's still there. | 令人惊叹的天赋 仍然在那里。 |
| 344 | And the lucky thing for me is when I was young, | 幸运的是,我年轻的时候, |
| 345 | they were young too. | 他们当时也很年轻 |
| 346 | And they're incredibly dedicated to the mission we have. | 他们非常致力于我们的使命。 |
| 347 | There is | 有一个 |
| 348 | no doubt as I am to say, I work at the Federal Reserve. | 毫无疑问,我在美联储工作 |
| 349 | And so part of all these jobs is | 所以这些工作的一部分是 |
| 350 | getting policy right. | 把政策弄对了 |
| 351 | But one key way to get policy right is to make sure the culture's | 但让政策正确的关键方法之一 是确保文化 |
| 352 | right. | 对 |
| 353 | And if I go deep in the organization, I see brilliant people practicing new ideas, | 如果我深入组织里,我看到有才华的人在练习新思想, |
| 354 | challenging each other. | 互相挑战。 |
| 355 | Maybe for people that are on the outside of the Fed, it sounds all | 也许对于那些在美联储外面的人来说 听起来很正常 |
| 356 | like we're all reading from the same script, but just beneath the surface, there's something | 就像我们都从同一个剧本读, 但就在表面上,有东西 |
| 357 | really, really impressive. | 真的,真的很令人印象深刻。 |
| 358 | And so that's a takeaway. | 所以这是个外卖 |
| 359 | I would say I'm surprised the upside | 我会说,我惊讶的颠倒 |
| 360 | how much talent is there. | 才华横溢 |
| 361 | Now, our job in running these organizations is how do we tap | 现在,我们管理这些组织的工作 是怎样开发 |
| 362 | into that? | 进入那个? |
| 363 | How do we get the benefit of what they know but rethink, reorganize? | 我们怎样才能从他们知道的东西中得到好处? |
| 364 | How to | 怎么样 |
| 365 | bring that to bear? | 把它带过来? |
| 366 | So that's one. | 所以这是一个。 |
| 367 | Two, I'd say where I would say I've failed in my first | 第二,我要说我第一次失败的地方 |
| 368 | 148 days is mostly because of all of you and the people that are on the end of this camera. | 148天 主要是因为你们 和那些在镜头末端的人 |
| 369 | They're all focused on monetary policy. | 他们都专注于货币政策. |
| 370 | Well, 75% of the people at the Federal Reserve, | 联邦储备局75%的人 |
| 371 | they don't work directly on monetary policy. | 他们并不直接研究货币政策。 |
| 372 | We're in a lot of businesses, businesses given | 我们有很多生意 生意 |
| 373 | to us by Congress, supervision and regulation, payment systems, consumer and community affairs. | 国会 监督和监管 支付系统 消费者和社区事务 |
| 374 | I could go on and on. | 我可以继续下去。 |
| 375 | I haven't been as good as I need to be to make sure they know I care | 我还没能保证他们知道我在乎 |
| 376 | about their issues as much as I care about the conduct of monetary policy. | 就像我关心货币政策的实行一样 |
| 377 | So I've probably | 所以我可能已经 |
| 378 | been drawn a little bit, maybe because of this moment, but the head of the Fed needs | 也许是因为这一刻 但美联储首脑需要 |
| 379 | to be the head of all parts of the Fed. | 成为美联储各部门的首脑 |
| 380 | And I say that not without enthusiasm. | 我说的不是没有热情。 |
| 381 | I say it | 我说 |
| 382 | because ultimately what matters to the central bank, what's most important about what we | 因为归根结底,什么对中央银行很重要, 什么是最重要的我们 |
| 383 | do, it's not the printing press. | 不,这不是印刷机。 |
| 384 | It's a powerful tool. | 这是一个强大的工具。 |
| 385 | It's neat. | 它的整齐。 |
| 386 | If you guys had one, you'd | 如果你们有一个,你们会 |
| 387 | love it. | 喜欢它。 |
| 388 | But the power really comes from our institutional credibility, and that was bestowed | 但权力确实来自我们的机构信誉,它赋予了 |
| 389 | on me by the great chairman that came before me. | 由在我面前的伟大主席来对付我 |
| 390 | And the only way that we're successful | 只有这样我们才能成功 |
| 391 | in getting policy right is if we burnish that institutional credibility. | 如果我们烧掉体制上的可信度,就意味着要正确对待政策。 |
| 392 | And so whatever | 所以不管怎样 |
| 393 | part of the Federal Reserve does, if they slip up, if they stumble on supervision or | 联邦储备局的一部分,如果他们失手了,如果他们在监督中跌倒,或者 |
| 394 | on payments, that reflects on our institutional credibility. | 这反映了我们的机构信誉。 |
| 395 | So my next hundred days I'm going | 所以我接下来的一百天,我要去 |
| 396 | to try to give equal focus to those other parts of the business because they matter | 试图对企业的其他部分给予同等重视,因为它们很重要 |
| 397 | too. | 也一样。 |
| 398 | And when you take over a position like this, you need to lead all of it, and you | 当你接任这样的职位, 你需要领导这一切, 而你 |
| 399 | need to love the institution enough across everything they do to go back and ask for | 需要深爱这个机构 他们所做的一切 回去要求 |
| 400 | those principles instead of, well, we do it this way because that's how we've always | 我们这样做是因为我们一直这样 |
| 401 | done it. | 已经做到了。 |
| 402 | That's not good enough. | 这还不够好。 |
| 403 | Not good enough, indeed, in a rapidly changing world. | 在一个迅速变化的世界里,确实还不够好。 |
| 404 | So you mentioned that there were the | 所以,你提到 有 |
| 405 | leaders before you. | 在你们面前的领袖们 |
| 406 | You're the 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve. | 你是第17任美联储主席. |
| 407 | When you look back, | 回头看 |
| 408 | what is it that mostly inspired you, the leadership of the past? | 是什么主要激励了你, 过去的领导? |
| 409 | I don't know whether you have | 我不知道你有没有 |
| 410 | gotten that far to think of what you want to leave behind, but what do you think the | 你想留下什么,但你觉得 |
| 411 | 17th chairman of the Federal Reserve may be remembered for? | 美联储第17任董事长可被记得吗?. |
| 412 | Boy, it's been 148 days. | 孩子,已经148天了 |
| 413 | Early, early days. | 早,早岁. |
| 414 | I'm not in the legacy business. | 我没有做遗产生意 |
| 415 | I'm in the business trying to get policy right. | 我在做正经生意,想搞好政策 |
| 416 | So that may be what you're remembered for, Kevin. | 所以这也许是人们记得的,凯文。 |
| 417 | I don't think I took over at the easiest moment. | 我想我不是在最轻松的时刻接手的 |
| 418 | I think I took over at a time that... | 我想我接手的时候... |
| 419 | You think so? | 是吗? |
| 420 | That's a time of consequence. | 那是一个后果的时刻。 |
| 421 | So I must say, I don't think about it like that, but I'll | 所以我必须说,我不这样想, 但我会 |
| 422 | say a word about my predecessors. | 跟我的前任说句话 |
| 423 | I'm lucky enough to have known or worked with my five | 我很幸运知道或者和五个人一起工作 |
| 424 | immediate predecessors. | 前辈 |
| 425 | That's very impressive. | 真让人印象深刻 |
| 426 | I remember when I was summoned as a young nominee to be a governor at the Fed, one of | 我记得当年我被召为一名年轻提名人 担任美联储的州长 |
| 427 | the ranking member of the Senate Banking Committee looked at me, thought I looked a little young, | 参议院银行委员会高层成员看着我 以为我看起来有点年轻 |
| 428 | I suspect, for the job, and he wasn't so sure that I was right, and he sent me to a meeting | 我怀疑他的工作 他不确定我是对的 他让我去开会 |
| 429 | with Paul Volcker. | 跟保罗·沃尔克 |
| 430 | I was 35 at the time. | 当时我35岁 |
| 431 | I remember going in there, still a big strapping | 我还记得去那儿,还是个大吊带 |
| 432 | guy. | 这家伙。 |
| 433 | I called him Mr. Chairman. | 我叫他为主席先生 |
| 434 | If it were these days, I would have brought one of these | 如果这些天,我会带一个 |
| 435 | cell phones and done a selfie. | 手机和做自拍。 |
| 436 | I probably brought an autograph book showing that I was | 我可能带了一本签名书 显示我是 |
| 437 | still a child, but I learned from each of them. | 还是个孩子, 但我从他们每个人身上学到了。 |
| 438 | I would say if I think back of the Volcker era, the Greenspan era, the Bernanke era, | 如果我回想沃尔克时代 格林斯潘时代 伯南克时代 |
| 439 | they met the moment of their times. | 他们遇到了他们的时代的时刻。 |
| 440 | They were each confronted with challenges that their | 他们各自面临挑战,他们面临挑战。 |
| 441 | predecessors weren't confronted with, and they managed to take a great institution and | 前辈们没有面对, 他们设法采取了一个伟大的机构, |
| 442 | match the moment. | 和现在一样 |
| 443 | I hope I am not brought to those sorts of challenges. | 我希望我没有遇到这些挑战。 |
| 444 | I hope the next | 我希望下一个 |
| 445 | three years and eight months or so is just nothing but benign, but they were there. | 3年零8个月左右 仅仅是良性,但他们在那里。 |
| 446 | We will all pray for that, Kevin. | 我们都会为此祈祷的,凯文 |
| 447 | But they did that, and I would say those three, they loved the institution enough to be unafraid | 但是,他们这样做了,我会说,这三个人, 他们爱的机构足够无畏 |
| 448 | to challenge it, to change it, to think about a new chapter. | 挑战它,改变它,思考一个新的篇章。 |
| 449 | That isn't somehow bad to think | 这不是什么坏想法 |
| 450 | about reforms. | 关于改革。 |
| 451 | They made reforms that were necessary to conquer that moment, and I would | 他们进行了必要的改革 以征服那一刻,我会 |
| 452 | say this about each of them. | 说到他们每个人 |
| 453 | They were all three very different people, but what they | 他们都是三个非常不同的人 但是他们是什么 |
| 454 | found in the institution was an enormous amount of talent, which is what I found. | 在医院里发现的 是一个巨大的天赋, 这就是我发现的。 |
| 455 | But they | 但是他们 |
| 456 | found themselves in a policy conjuncture that was in no textbook, and they figured out how | 发现自己处于一个没有教科书的政策交汇中, 他们想出了如何解决 |
| 457 | to do it. | 要做到这一点。 |
| 458 | That doesn't mean that any of them had perfect records. | 这并不意味着他们都有完美的记录。 |
| 459 | I don't think any of | 我觉得没有 |
| 460 | them would say that, but they figured out how to make policy about as good as they could, | 他们会这么说,但他们想出了 如何让政策尽可能好, |
| 461 | and that's an incredible legacy. | 这是令人难以置信的遗产。 |
| 462 | I've learned from them, but the idea that the 17th Chairman | 我从他们那里学到了,但第17主席的想法 |
| 463 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}美联储会像第13、第14或第15号 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}没有地位 | |
| 464 | quo ante to return to. | 回到原来的状态 |
| 465 | The world, in my view, is changing faster than at any point in my | 在我看来,世界的变化 比任何时刻都快 |
| 466 | adult life, and so we need to be on the front of our shoes, on the front of our feet to | 成人生活,所以我们需要 在我们的鞋子前, 在我们的脚前 |
| 467 | ask ourselves, what's this mean for us? | 问问自己 这对我们意味着什么? |
| 468 | I can be inspired by them. | 我可以从他们身上得到灵感。 |
| 469 | I can be proud that | 我可以骄傲 |
| 470 | they left the institution with more institutional credibility, which makes our job easier, but | 他们让这个机构有了更多的机构信誉,这使我们的工作更容易,但是, |
| 471 | beyond that, I'm not spending a lot of time looking back. | 除此之外,我不会花很多时间回头看。 |
| 472 | I'm spending a lot of time looking | 我花了很多时间寻找 |
| 473 | out the window and saying, what's really going on? | 窗外说到底发生了什么? |
| 474 | You mentioned a speech I gave a little | 你提到一个演讲,我做了一点 |
| 475 | while ago in Jackson Hole. | 在杰克逊洞里 |
| 476 | One of the themes of that is our first job is to interrogate | 我们的第一项工作就是审问 |
| 477 | reality. | 现实 |
| 478 | What's really happening? | 到底发生了什么? |
| 479 | I think it's Orwell who said, the hardest thing to | 我想是奥威尔说的 最难的 |
| 480 | know is what's right in front of you. | 知道在你面前的是什么吗 |
| 481 | At least for me, it's hard to know exactly what's going | 至少对我来说,很难知道到底发生了什么 |
| 482 | on out there. | 在那边。 |
| 483 | That's why coming to meetings like this, to hear other people's perspectives, | 这就是为什么来到这样的会议, 听到别人的观点, |
| 484 | see what's happening in their economy sure matters, and I plan on doing more of it. | 看他们经济中发生的事情肯定重要 我打算做更多的事情 |
| 485 | What is it that these meetings so far impressed you the most? | 这些会议迄今给你留下最深刻的印象是什么? |
| 486 | What is the one thing that you | 什么是你唯一的东西 |
| 487 | are learning here that you would take back to your colleagues? | 你在这里学到你会带回你的同事吗? |
| 488 | I'll take a few things back. | 我会拿一些东西回来。 |
| 489 | I would say we have a lot of common challenges. | 我想说,我们有许多共同的挑战。 |
| 490 | Listen, I | 听着,我 |
| 491 | feel in the United States that the real economy, because of a resiliency that you mentioned, | 美国认为,由于你提到的弹性,实体经济, |
| 492 | but because of a surge of investment, which isn't just AI, that surge of investment is | 但因为投资的激增, 不只是AI, |
| 493 | broadening, that means we've got plenty of tailwinds that are giving some strength and | 放大,这意味着我们有很多尾风 给予一些力量, |
| 494 | durability to this economy. | 经济的持久性。 |
| 495 | That sort of momentum is certainly not found everywhere in the world, | 这种势头在世界任何地方都找不到, |
| 496 | but what is striking to me are two things. | 但让我吃惊的是两件事 |
| 497 | Almost everywhere in the global economy is | 全球经济几乎无处不在 |
| 498 | showing resilience that I'm not sure I would have predicted five or six months ago. | 我不确定我五、六个月前会预测到 |
| 499 | Given | 鉴于 |
| 500 | what's happening in geopolitics and hotspots around the world, if you had made me sort | 在地缘政治和热点世界发生的事情 如果你让我分明 |
| 501 | of give some IMF forecast of what's going on, I'm not sure I would have found that so | 给一些IMF预测 发生了什么事, 我不确定我会不会发现 |
| 502 | many members of the G20 were hanging in there, whose economies were doing well. | 20国集团的许多成员都在那里,他们的经济表现良好。 |
| 503 | I might have | 我也许有 |
| 504 | said about the United States. | 说到美国。 |
| 505 | I don't think I would have said that about so many. | 我不认为我会说这么多。 |
| 506 | The | 那个 |
| 507 | other thing, which is a commonality, is a common challenge, is I mentioned at the outset | 我一开始就提到过,这是共同的,是共同的挑战 |
| 508 | is inflation is not unique to the United States. | 通货膨胀不是美国独有的。 |
| 509 | We're looking at it together. | 我们一起看 |
| 510 | Each of us | 我们每个人 |
| 511 | obviously make the choices that we feel we have to make, given our own domestic remit | 鉴于我们自己的国内权限,显然要做出我们觉得必须作出的选择。 |
| 512 | from our own Congress, from parliaments around the world, but there are spillovers and spillbacks. | 从我们自己的国会, 从世界各国的议会, 但有溢出和溢出。 |
| 513 | I heard, I would say, resolve from my colleagues around the world to deliver price stability. | 我要说,我听到世界各地同事决心稳定价格。 |
| 514 | I've certainly delivered that resolve. | 我确实做出了这个决心。 |
| 515 | We have different tools, different sequences, | 我们有不同的工具,不同的序列, |
| 516 | but I would say if I look back over the last few months, while we each did the right thing | 但我会说,如果我回顾 过去几个月, 而我们每个人都做了正确的事情 |
| 517 | by our own judgment, by our own remit, it was a synchronous tightening in monetary policy | 根据我们自己的判断,根据我们的职权范围,这是货币政策同步紧缩 |
| 518 | in most places around the world, and that means there's no free riders. | 在世界大多数地方, 这意味着没有自由骑手。 |
| 519 | We're seeing | 我们正看到 |
| 520 | common things and we're taking action, and I view that as a positive development. | 共同的事情,我们正在采取行动, 我认为这是一个积极的发展。 |
| 521 | I very much agree. | 我完全同意这一点。 |
| 522 | I think that the common vision around making sure that price stability | 我认为,关于确保价格稳定的共同愿景 |
| 523 | is set and it gives that confidence to businesses and households that it's so important for | 给企业和家庭带来信心 这对企业和家庭很重要 |
| 524 | growth to continue, and yes, I agree that is one of the big messages from this meeting. | 是的,我同意这是本次会议发出的重要信息之一。 |
| 525 | We are running out of time. | 时间不多了 |
| 526 | Is there anything you want to tell these people that I didn't | 你有什么要告诉这些人 我没有 |
| 527 | have the wisdom to ask you? | 有智慧问你吗? |
| 528 | So Kristalina did a wonderful job. | 所以,克里斯塔琳娜做了一个很好的工作。 |
| 529 | I might invite you to my next press conference. | 我可能会邀请你参加我的下一次记者招待会 |
| 530 | These | 这些 |
| 531 | questions somehow are a little bit more cordial than some of the things I get. | 问的问题 比我得到的一些东西更亲切 |
| 532 | I'll just say | 我只是说 |
| 533 | this. | 这个 |
| 534 | I'll leave with a final comment, which is anyone that's at the Federal Reserve, particularly | 我最后要说一句 任何在美联储的人 |
| 535 | anyone that feels fortunate to sit in my chair, I feel an incredible amount of gratefulness. | 任何有幸坐在我椅子上的人 我都会感到难以置信的感激 |
| 536 | I feel as though the world is moving faster than ever, changes to how we think about what | 我觉得世界比以往更快 改变我们的想法 |
| 537 | happens in our economy. | 发生在我们的经济。 |
| 538 | It's subject to differences now that might have been hard to believe five | 可能很难相信5个 |
| 539 | or ten years ago, but I'm grateful. | 或十年前, 但我很感激。 |
| 540 | I'm grateful for my colleagues at the Federal Reserve. | 感谢美联储的同事. |
| 541 | I'm grateful for the staff, and I'm also grateful for the remarkable openness to new ideas. | 感谢工作人员,也感谢对新思想的显著开放. |
| 542 | I have felt it in my private meetings with you. | 我在与你的非公开会议上感觉到了这一点。 |
| 543 | I've felt it from my G20 colleagues. | 我从二十国集团的同事那里感觉到了 |
| 544 | Our objective is to get policy right. | 我们的目标是让政策正确。 |
| 545 | Our objective is to think anew about questions, | 我们的目标是重新思考问题 |
| 546 | and the thing that we don't hear and we don't want to hear is, well, this is how we've always | 而我们不听 和我们不想听到的是, 好了,这是我们一直这样 |
| 547 | done it, or this is what the model says, or the model says this will happen after that. | 做了,或者这是模型说的, 或者模型说,这之后会发生。 |
| 548 | I prefer frameworks to going to mean-regressing models, and I think with your help, Kristalino, | 我更喜欢框架 而不是意味着倒退模式, 我想在你的帮助下,克里斯塔利诺, |
| 549 | with the help of our incredibly strong colleagues around the world, we're going to get through | 有了我们全世界非常强壮的同事的帮助 我们就能渡过难关 |
| 550 | a time of huge consequence, and I believe optimistically, you might think naively, at | 我乐观地认为,你可能天真地认为, |
| 551 | least in the U.S., we're going to come out of this stronger, with a more durable economy, | 至少在美国,我们将走出这个更强大, 经济更持久, |
| 552 | more capable of leading the world on economic growth, so it's not zero-sum, and hopefully | 更有能力领导世界的经济增长, 所以这不是零和,希望 |
| 553 | we're going to come up with some new ideas that other countries, with their own decision-making, | 我们想出一些新的想法 其他国家, 和它们自己的决策, |
| 554 | will say, those work for us too. | 将说,这些对我们也是有效的。 |
| 555 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 556 | Well, ladies and gentlemen, Chairman Kevin Warsh, the defender of price stability. | 女士们先生们 凯文·沃什主席 价格稳定的捍卫者 |
| 557 | Thank | 谢谢 |
| 558 | you. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much. | 你们 非常感谢大家 非常感谢大家 非常感谢 |
| 559 | Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much everybody. | 非常感谢各位 非常感谢各位 非常感谢各位 |
| 560 | Thank you. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very | 谢谢 非常感谢大家 非常感谢大家 非常感谢 |
| 561 | everybody. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much everybody. Thank you very much | 每个人。 非常感谢大家 非常感谢大家 非常感谢 |
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