黄仁勋对谈马斯克：AI 正在“再工业化”美国，但电网首先要撑
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Hey, team. | 嘿,团队。 |
| 0:01 | Oh, gee. | 哦,耶稣。 |
| 0:03 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 0:04 | Are we late? | 我们迟到了吗? |
| 0:07 | Guys? | 伙计们? |
| 0:08 | Good to be here. | 很高兴来到这里。 |
| 0:09 | Go, America. | 去,美国。 |
| 0:11 | Team America. | 美国队. |
| 0:12 | Yes, indeed. | 是的,确实。 |
| 0:14 | So America, Wright Brothers, first man on the moon, the internet. | 美国,莱特兄弟,第一个登月的人,互联网。 |
展开字幕全文（374 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hey, team. | 嘿,团队。 |
| 2 | Oh, gee. | 哦,耶稣。 |
| 3 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 4 | Are we late? | 我们迟到了吗? |
| 5 | Guys? | 伙计们? |
| 6 | Good to be here. | 很高兴来到这里。 |
| 7 | Go, America. | 去,美国。 |
| 8 | Team America. | 美国队. |
| 9 | Yes, indeed. | 是的,确实。 |
| 10 | So America, Wright Brothers, first man on the moon, the internet. | 美国,莱特兄弟,第一个登月的人,互联网。 |
| 11 | The two of us, Wright Brothers. | 我们两个,莱特兄弟 |
| 12 | I like that, indeed. | 我喜欢,真的。 |
| 13 | We've essentially led every major technological revolution, which has been to the enormous | 我们基本上领导了 每一个重大技术革命, 这是巨大的 |
| 14 | benefit of America, ordinary Americans, where I guess we're now calling this superintelligence, | 从美国,普通美国人那里得到好处 我想我们现在称之为超级情报 |
| 15 | which I think is actually good branding. | 我认为这其实是很好的品牌。 |
| 16 | And so let's talk about how America wins this, and we make that winning good for ordinary | 让我们来谈谈美国如何赢得这个, 我们让赢得这个好处 对于普通 |
| 17 | Americans. | 美国人 |
| 18 | Well, excuse me, Dicoke, sorry. | 对不起,迪科克,对不起 |
| 19 | So first of all, artificial superintelligence, superintelligence, is a complete reinvention | 所以,首先,人工超智能,超智能, 是一个完整的革新 |
| 20 | of the computing stack. | 计算堆栈。 |
| 21 | Everything from the way the processors, the chips are designed and the way they operate | 所有从处理器的方式,芯片的设计 和操作的方式 |
| 22 | to the way software is now trained and developed to the way that the applications are able | 软件的培训和开发方式 |
| 23 | to perform, what they're able to do and how they perform. | 表演,他们能做什么和如何表演。 |
| 24 | Every single layer of the computing stack has been reinvented. | 计算堆栈的每层都进行了重塑。 |
| 25 | This way of doing computing, unlike previous ways of retrieving information, this is a | 这种计算方式,与以前检索信息的方式不同,是一种 |
| 26 | The first thing we need is energy, because we need the energies to run the compute, the | 我们首先需要的是能量 因为我们需要能量来进行计算 |
| 27 | compute, run the algorithms, the algorithms, then feed the applications. | 计算,运行算法,算法,然后反馈应用. |
| 28 | And so at the foundational layer is energy, and from that energy, we build the land power | 因此,在基础层是能源, 从这种能源,我们建设土地动力 |
| 29 | and shell and that hosts the infrastructure, so on and so forth. | 和贝壳, 以及那些主 基础设施,等等。 |
| 30 | And so the way we win, of course, we are world class in chip design, we're world class in | 所以,我们赢的方式,当然, 我们是世界一流的芯片设计, |
| 31 | algorithm development. | 算法开发。 |
| 32 | And so one of the things that we need to do is just be vigilant about enabling power delivery | 所以,我们需要做的一件事 就是保持警觉 使发电 |
| 33 | and power generation to happen, and President Trump has been visionary in being pro-energy. | 特朗普总统一直有远见地支持能源。 |
| 34 | Without the pro-energy vision of President Trump, it would have been impossible for us | 没有川普总统的能源愿景,我们就不可能 |
| 35 | to build the data centers on top of it. | 在上面建数据中心 |
| 36 | Now of course, these data centers are coming online so quickly, we're coming into a lot | 当然,这些数据中心 上线的速度太快,我们进入了很多 |
| 37 | of neighborhoods and a lot of communities. | 和很多社区。 |
| 38 | We have to do a better job and partner with the communities and bring them along and make | 我们必须做一个更好的工作, 与社区合作, 带他们一起, |
| 39 | them part of the prosperity and the success of this industrial revolution. | 它们是工业革命繁荣和成功的一部分。 |
| 40 | But that's how we win. | 但我们就是这样赢的。 |
| 41 | We got to build the world's best chips, we have to have lots and lots of energy, create | 我们必须制造出世界上最好的芯片, 我们需要大量的能量,创造 |
| 42 | incredible algorithms, and then lastly, make sure that America is enthusiastic about the | 不可思议的算法,最后, 确保美国热衷于 |
| 43 | technology so that we diffuse it into all of these various industries, from manufacturing | 将技术传播到从制造业到所有这些行业 |
| 44 | to healthcare, space exploration, so on and so forth. | 医疗,太空探索等等 |
| 45 | Awesome. | 厉害 |
| 46 | Elon, how do we win? | 伊隆,我们怎么赢? |
| 47 | How do we keep winning? | 我们怎么继续赢? |
| 48 | Well, we need a lot of power, a lot of energy generation. | 我们需要大量的电力,大量的能源。 |
| 49 | So scaling energy I think is one of the biggest things. | 放大能量是最大的问题之一。 |
| 50 | You've got to scale energy, you've got to scale chip production, and I think we're winning | 你必须扩大能量, 你必须扩大芯片生产, 我认为我们赢了 |
| 51 | on software, on anything intellectual or digital. | 在软件上,任何知识或数字。 |
| 52 | But in the long run, we need to be able to generate enough power to compete with, I think | 但是,从长远来看,我们需要 能够产生足够的力量 竞争,我认为 |
| 53 | essentially China is the biggest competitor, and China has about three times the electricity | 基本上,中国是最大的竞争者, 中国有大约三倍的电力 |
| 54 | production of the United States, and I think we'll figure out how to make ships. | 我想我们会想办法造船的 |
| 55 | So really the central challenge I think is long term is going to be how do you generate | 所以,真的中心挑战 我认为是长期 将是如何产生 |
| 56 | enough power, and how do you ensure that we have enough logic and memory fabrication capacity | 你如何确保我们有足够的逻辑和记忆制造能力 |
| 57 | in the United States or in a safe region? | 在美国还是安全地区? |
| 58 | We need the Wright brothers on the job. | 我们需要莱特兄弟来工作 |
| 59 | Well, it turns out the Wright brothers are on the job. | 原来莱特兄弟在工作 |
| 60 | Elon, if you bring on 10 gigawatts, which SpaceX has discussed publicly, that'll be | 伊隆,如果你带来10千兆瓦, SpaceX已经公开讨论过,那将是 |
| 61 | about 25% of all the power added in America, and I know you have literal rocket engineers | 大约25%的电力在美国增加, 我知道你有 字面火箭工程师 |
| 62 | working on bringing on the power, helping make the turbines. | 帮助制造涡轮机 |
| 63 | So can you talk about that? | 你能谈谈吗? |
| 64 | Yeah, just to frame this, the average power consumption in the United States is about | 是啊,只是为这个框架, 美国平均耗电量是大约 |
| 65 | 500 gigawatts. | 五百千亿瓦. |
| 66 | So every 5 gigawatts of incremental steady state production is a 1% increase in the power | 所以每5千兆瓦的增量稳定生产 电力增长1% |
| 67 | used. | 已使用。 |
| 68 | And I think actually will materialize to be approximately 1% increase in GDP, because | 我认为实际上会实现 大约1%的GDP增长,因为 |
| 69 | the intelligence per watt keeps increasing. | 每瓦的智能不断增长。 |
| 70 | So if you just plot on a curve, how is the useful intelligence per watt increasing? | 所以,如果你在曲线上画图, 每瓦的有用智能是如何增加的? |
| 71 | How is the, both at the hardware level, at Jensen's, GPUs keep getting better in terms | 无论是在硬件层面,在Jensen的GPU 如何不断改进 |
| 72 | of the compute per watt, and the algorithms also get better in getting more intelligence | 计算每瓦的计算,算法在获得更多的智能方面也会更好 |
| 73 | per watt. | 每瓦时。 |
| 74 | So that's maybe an interesting note. | 这也许是个有趣的提示 |
| 75 | I would bet anyone that 1% increase in power usage corresponds to roughly 1% increase in | 我敢打赌,1%的功率增加 大约相当于1% |
| 76 | GDP. | 国产总值. |
| 77 | And so 10 gigawatts would be a 2% increase in GDP, with the Rubens, I think. | 10千兆瓦的GDP增长2%, 我想是鲁本斯。 |
| 78 | So let's do the simple math. | 因此,让我们做简单的数学。 |
| 79 | So each gigawatt can probably generate about, call it $40, $50 billion of economic output | 所以,每千兆瓦可能 产生大约,叫它400,500亿美元的经济产出 |
| 80 | each year. | 每年。 |
| 81 | Yeah, I mean, 1% would be, yeah, I mean, yeah. | 是啊,我的意思是,1%将是,是啊,我的意思是,是啊。 |
| 82 | 1% of the United States would be... | 1%的美国将... |
| 83 | 300 billion. | 三千亿. |
| 84 | Yeah, 300 billion. | 是啊,3000亿。 |
| 85 | And so 50, 1 sixth. | 还有50,1,6 |
| 86 | 1% of the, 1% increase, so 5 gigawatts would be, yeah, 5 gigawatts would be 300 billion. | 其中1%,1%增加, 所以5千兆瓦将是,是的,5千兆瓦将是3000亿。 |
| 87 | Yeah, right. | 没错 |
| 88 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 89 | It's pretty close. | 离这里很近 |
| 90 | 60 billion a gigawatt, yeah. | 600亿千兆瓦,是的。 |
| 91 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 92 | The math, math. | 数学,数学。 |
| 93 | Yes. | 对 |
| 94 | Yeah, yeah. | 对 对 |
| 95 | That's what we're good at. | 这就是我们擅长的。 |
| 96 | Yes, yes. | 对,对。 |
| 97 | Not good at too many other things, but math. | 不擅长很多其他的事情,但数学。 |
| 98 | Yeah, I mean, it's going to increase quite dramatically year over year. | 是的,我的意思是,它会 相当猛增的一年。 |
| 99 | So yeah, I mean, from a SpaceX standpoint, we're looking at long-term, how do we access | 所以说,从SpaceX的角度来看,我们正在研究长远,我们如何进入 |
| 100 | a lot more energy than could be accessed on the ground, and that's with space. | 能量比地面上的能量要大得多 空间就是如此 |
| 101 | So orbital compute is going to be a very big deal. | 所以轨道计算将是一个非常大的问题。 |
| 102 | In fact, and Google agrees, they just actually sent up, or either about to, or soon about | 事实上,Google也同意, 他们实际上只是发送, 或即将,或很快 |
| 103 | to send up some TPUs. | 发送一些TPU。 |
| 104 | I think there was an H100 that was put into orbit like last year, I think. | 我认为有一架H100 和去年一样被送入轨道 |
| 105 | So it does work in space. | 所以它确实在太空工作。 |
| 106 | And SpaceX is aiming together with Tesla to do 200 gigawatts of solar production per year. | 而SpaceX正与Tesla一起致力于每年完成200千兆瓦的太阳能生产. |
| 107 | And if brought to space, you get the nameplate or better on the solar power, whereas if it's | 如果带到太空,你可以得到命名板 或更好的太阳能,而如果它是 |
| 108 | on the ground, you're going to get somewhere between a fifth and an eighth of the solar | 在地上,你会得到 太阳的五到八之间的某个地方 |
| 109 | power generation, and you need enormous batteries. | 发电,你需要巨大的电池。 |
| 110 | So whereas it's essentially always sunny in space. | 所以,虽然它基本上总是 阳光的空间。 |
| 111 | And right now is a great time to do it, because the economic returns of these computing systems | 现在是一个大好时机 做到这一点,因为 这些计算系统的经济回报 |
| 112 | are so good that the launch cost, although still quite high, in terms of the overall | 发射成本虽然仍然很高,但就总体而言, |
| 113 | economic benefit, is quite affordable. | 经济效益是相当负担得起的。 |
| 114 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 115 | This is the perfect time to do it. | 这是做到这一点的最佳时机。 |
| 116 | Putting NVIDIA compute in space is the best way to get there. | 将NVIDIA计算在太空是到达那里的最佳方法. |
| 117 | Climbing the Kardashev scale with American power and American chips on American rockets, | 攀登卡尔达舍夫规模 在美国火箭上拥有美国力量和美国芯片, |
| 118 | I love it. | 我喜欢它。 |
| 119 | So Jensen, you said something that I thought was important about how when we bring the | Jensen 你说过一些话 我认为很重要的 |
| 120 | energy to all these small towns, we're re-industrializing America, we're revitalizing small towns, | 能源对所有这些小城镇, 我们正在重新工业化 美国, 我们正在振兴小城镇, |
| 121 | we're modernizing the grid. | 我们正在更新电网 |
| 122 | These are things that essentially every American politician has wanted for the last 35 years. | 这些都是过去35年来 美国政治家们所希望的 |
| 123 | What would you say, what are some specifics you can give about how data centers are good | 你会说,什么是一些细节 你可以给出 如何数据中心是好的 |
| 124 | for ordinary Americans in the communities, and how they're getting better for those communities? | 对于社区中的普通美国人, 他们是如何改善这些社区? |
| 125 | We used to call them data centers, because that's where we hold data. | 我们曾经叫它们数据中心, 因为这就是我们保存数据的地方。 |
| 126 | But the things that we're building now, these are really SI factories, super intelligence | 但是,我们现在正在建造的东西, 这些真的是SI工厂,超级智能 |
| 127 | factories. | 工厂。 |
| 128 | And the reason why it's a factory is because you're producing something of economic value, | 这是工厂的原因 是因为你正在生产一些有经济价值的东西 |
| 129 | you're just not storing it. | 你只是没有储存它。 |
| 130 | So these SI factories are real factories. | 所以这些SI工厂是真正的工厂. |
| 131 | It's like a big giant power generator in real factories, got a lot of computing and networking | 就像真正的工厂里的巨型发电机 拥有大量的计算和网络 |
| 132 | in there, power generation, cooling systems, it's complicated things. | 在那里,发电,冷却系统, 这是复杂的事情。 |
| 133 | And so we're building out, just as the internet today allows you to find anything anywhere, | 所以,我们正在建设, 就像今天的互联网 允许你找到任何地方, |
| 134 | in the future with these AI, excuse me, SI infrastructure, SI factories, you'll be able | 将来用这些AI,对不起,SI基础设施,SI工厂,你就能 |
| 135 | to know anything and do anything from anywhere. | 了解一切,从任何地方做任何事情。 |
| 136 | And so now we're building this infrastructure out, and we call it across all of the United | 所以,现在我们正在建造这个基础设施, 我们称之为全联合。 |
| 137 | States, somewhere between 10, 20 gigawatts a year. | 州,每年10到20千兆瓦左右。 |
| 138 | Just estimate, that creates just probably about a million jobs in building out these | 估计一下,这可能会创造 大约100万个工作 建造这些 |
| 139 | data centers. | 数据中心。 |
| 140 | Don't forget, you've got to build the power generation plants, you've got to build the | 别忘了,你必须建造发电站,你必须建造 |
| 141 | data centers, you've got construction, you've got power cooling, you've got pipe fitters. | 数据中心,你有建筑, 你有电源冷却, 你有管道安装。 |
| 142 | And so this is the first time in probably, as you mentioned, 35, I was going to say 50 | 所以,这可能是第一次, 正如你提到, 35,我要说50 |
| 143 | years, first time in 50 years, we are re-industrializing the United States, creating a whole bunch | 多年来,我们50年来第一次 重新工业化美国, 创造了一大堆 |
| 144 | of blue collar jobs. | 蓝领工作。 |
| 145 | And I think we want an economy that has a shape that includes white collar jobs and | 我想我们想要一个经济的形状 包括白领工作 |
| 146 | blue collar jobs, not just white collar jobs. | 蓝领工作 不只是白领工作 |
| 147 | And so I think that this is our great chance of reshaping our economy and bringing that | 所以我认为,这是我们 重塑经济并带来 |
| 148 | type of builders and craft back into the United States. | 一种回到美国的建筑工匠 |
| 149 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 150 | 我的意思是,这感觉就像 Colossus和MacroHard和MacroHard所做的 | |
| 151 | amazing, the communities around them, the jobs they've created, how do you think about | 令人惊奇的是,周围的社区, 他们创造的工作, |
| 152 | that? | 那个? |
| 153 | Yeah, I mean, the economic impact, the positive economic impact has been tremendous. | 是啊,我的意思是,经济影响, 积极的经济影响是巨大的。 |
| 154 | I mean, there's actually a job shortage in the region, whereas there used to be quite | 我的意思是,这个地区实际上存在 工作短缺,而过去有相当 |
| 155 | a bit of unemployment, and now there's over-employment, if you will. | 有点失业, 现在有过度就业, 如果你愿意。 |
| 156 | There's more jobs than there are people. | 就业比人多. |
| 157 | And the tax benefits for the community have been tremendous. | 税收给社区带来了巨大的好处。 |
| 158 | I think we might have doubled their tax budget or something quite tremendous. | 我认为我们可能已经加倍 他们的税收预算或 相当巨大的东西。 |
| 159 | We do small things that are helpful, like provide low-priced, half-priced stalling access. | 我们做一些有帮助的小事情,比如提供低价,半价的延缓访问. |
| 160 | We're building a water recycling plant that's a $250 million water recycling plant. | 我们正在建设一座耗资2.5亿元的水回收厂. |
| 161 | I think you do need to do things for the community, and if you do so, they will reciprocate. | 我认为你确实需要为社区做一些事情,如果你这样做,他们会做出回报. |
| 162 | Awesome. | 厉害 |
| 163 | Now, one of the things that people forget is that for the first time in probably forever, | 现在,人们忘记的一件事是, 在可能永远的第一次, |
| 164 | that we have the market forces to support the investment of sustainable energy. | 我们拥有支持可持续能源投资的市场力量。 |
| 165 | You give me an example of a fusion, fission, small nuclear reactor, large reactor, almost | 给我一个核聚变 裂变 小型核反应堆 大型反应堆的例子 |
| 166 | every form of sustainable energy is being funded today. | 今天,各种形式的可持续能源都得到了资助。 |
| 167 | And so we have the opportunity to fund the future of energy without the government subsidizing. | 因此我们有机会在没有政府补贴的情况下为能源的未来提供资金。 |
| 168 | You give me an example of a great energy battery storage idea. | 你给我一个伟大的能量电池存储想法的例子。 |
| 169 | It's going to get funded. | 将得资粮. |
| 170 | By the way, on behalf of all Americans, I want to thank both of you. | 顺便说一句,我代表所有美国人, 感谢你们两个。 |
| 171 | I think combined, you have created more than $5 trillion of wealth for ordinary Americans | 我认为你为普通美国人创造了超过5万亿美元的财富 |
| 172 | in their 401Ks, tens of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of jobs directly, many tens of | 在他们的401K,数万, 也许数十万工作直接,数万 |
| 173 | millions of wages. | 百万工资. |
| 174 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 175 | I think Jensen's done $5 trillion by himself, actually. | 我觉得詹森自己做了5万亿美元,其实。 |
| 176 | I'm sorry? | 你说什么? |
| 177 | I think Jensen's done $5 trillion by himself. | 我想詹森一个人做了5万亿美元。 |
| 178 | I think I'm around three and a half or something. | 我想我在三点半左右 |
| 179 | I was trying to be conservative. | 我试图保守。 |
| 180 | So you guys both had a great Monday. | 你们周一玩得很开心 |
| 181 | I was watching the Starship launch, first orbital Starship launch, while I was reading | 我在看星舰发射 第一次轨道星舰发射 当我在读 |
| 182 | about the Open Agent Safety Framework from NVIDIA, which was an exciting morning. | 关于开放代理安全框架 来自NVIDIA, 这是一个令人兴奋的早晨。 |
| 183 | So maybe you could each talk about each of those, because we need Starship to get those | 所以,也许你可以每个人都谈论 每一个,因为我们需要星舰来得到这些 |
| 184 | 200 gigawatts of American solder with American chips, American superintelligence, into orbit. | 200千兆瓦的美国售货机,配有美国芯片,美国超级智能,进入轨道. |
| 185 | I'll talk about his, and you'll talk about mine. | 我会说起他的,你会说起我的 |
| 186 | No, I'm just kidding. | 不,我只是在开玩笑。 |
| 187 | So let's see. | 让我们来看看。 |
| 188 | As you know, we want to advance AI, advance SI. | 如你所知,我们想推进AI,推进SI. |
| 189 | We're going to advance SI in a responsible and optimistic way. | 我们要以负责和乐观的方式推进SI. |
| 190 | And we know that the future, we strongly believe that the future that SI is going to enable | 我们知道,未来,我们强烈相信, SI将要实现的未来 |
| 191 | is the future that we want to be part of. | 是我们想要参与的未来。 |
| 192 | And so we're optimistic about that, and that's the reason why we're driving so hard. | 因此,我们对此持乐观态度,这也是我们如此努力驾驶的原因. |
| 193 | On the other hand, we have to make sure that we develop this technology safely and securely. | 另一方面,我们必须确保安全地发展这种技术。 |
| 194 | There are several different parts of it. | 有好几个不同的部分。 |
| 195 | While you're training the model, that's generally a fairly safe environment. | 在你训练这个模型的同时, 这一般是一个相当安全的环境。 |
| 196 | But while you're evaluating the model, while you're testing the model, you have to make | 但是当你在评估模型的时候, 当你在测试模型的时候, 你必须做出 |
| 197 | sure that the agentic system, the model itself, is highly contained. | 确保代理系统,模型本身, 被高度控制。 |
| 198 | That containment system has to be really secure. | 这种控制系统必须非常安全。 |
| 199 | And the second thing is that while you're testing it, you want to monitor that, even | 第二件事是,当你测试它的时候, 你想监视它,甚至 |
| 200 | though you have it contained, you should never trust that it's contained, and so you want | 虽然你控制住了,但你不应该相信 它控制了,所以你想 |
| 201 | to monitor it in real time. | 实时监控 |
| 202 | And you want to ideally monitor it with another chip, so that it is outside, if you will, | 你想最好用另一个芯片来监视它 所以它就在外面 如果你愿意的话 |
| 203 | called out of band, outside the environment, outside the sandbox of the agent itself. | 在环境之外,在代理商本身的沙盒之外。 |
| 204 | And so you want to contain, and you want to monitor. | 所以,你想控制,你想监视。 |
| 205 | Once you're done evaluating in this way, when you deploy, you want to use a very similar | 一旦你用这种方式评估完, 当你部署时,你想使用一个非常相似的 |
| 206 | system. | 系统。 |
| 207 | And this is no different than just about any digital, any human employee that you hire. | 这和你雇用的 任何数字化的员工没什么区别 |
| 208 | You've given them a containment of rights and tools and access, and then you monitor | 你让他们控制了权利 工具 和进入,然后你监测 |
| 209 | on a regular basis, on a continuous basis. | 定期,持续. |
| 210 | And so in the case of agents, we just have to make sure containment and monitoring has | 因此,对于特工, 我们只需要确保 控制和监测有 |
| 211 | to be done in the most secure of ways. | 以最安全的方式进行 |
| 212 | And we introduced two technologies. | 我们引进了两种技术。 |
| 213 | One's called Open Shell. | 一者名为开壳. |
| 214 | It's a containment system. | 这是一种封闭系统。 |
| 215 | It's basically kind of like a browser for websites. | 基本上就像网站的浏览器。 |
| 216 | It's now essentially a browser of agents. | 现在基本上是一个代理的浏览器. |
| 217 | And that browser keeps the agent isolated from the rest of the computer, and the rights | 而浏览器使代理 与其余的计算机,和权利 |
| 218 | that you give it are only the rights it should have. | 你只赋予它应有的权利。 |
| 219 | And then the monitoring system is a new chip called Bluefield, and it keeps an eye on everything | 监控系统是新的芯片 叫做Bluefield 它监视着一切 |
| 220 | that the agent is doing at all times. | 代理随时都在做。 |
| 221 | And if it does anything that's out of bounds and against the policy that has been given, | 如果它做了任何超出界限和违背 已经给予的政策, |
| 222 | then it escalates as far as you need it to escalate. | 然后它升级,只要你需要它升级。 |
| 223 | And I thought it was a great analogy in the technical blog, where you said in the early | 我认为这是一个伟大的类比 在技术博客, 你在早期说 |
| 224 | days of Internet, everybody was worried about your credit card could get stolen. | 人们担心你的信用卡会被偷 |
| 225 | We made the Internet safe, and that's why we have Amazon, we have Netflix, we have Google, | 我们让互联网安全, 这就是为什么我们有亚马逊, 我们有Netflix,我们有谷歌, |
| 226 | we have X. | 我们有X。 |
| 227 | We have so many great things because we made the Internet safe. | 我们有很多伟大的东西,因为我们使互联网安全。 |
| 228 | Now we're doing the same with AI. | 现在我们对AI也一样 |
| 229 | And safety is not inconsistent with advancing the technology. | 而安全性与推进技术并不矛盾. |
| 230 | Safety and advancing the technology is one and the same thing. | 安全和推进技术是一回事。 |
| 231 | It's no different than when you have autopilot. | 和自动驾驶没什么区别 |
| 232 | Not only is it advanced technology, it's also safer technology. | 它不仅是先进的技术,也是更安全的技术. |
| 233 | And so you advance the technology in that way. | 因此,你以这种方式推进技术。 |
| 234 | The two are not in conflict. | 两者没有冲突。 |
| 235 | The idea that if you advance capability, it somehow compromises safety. | 这个想法,如果你提高能力, 它在某种程度上会损害安全。 |
| 236 | If you advance safety, somehow you fall behind. | 如果你推进安全,不知怎的你落在后面。 |
| 237 | Those are false choices. | 这些都是错误的选择。 |
| 238 | Safety lets us accelerate. | 安全让我们加快速度。 |
| 239 | But Elon, if the Starship is going to be a big part of those 200 gigawatts, what can | 但是伊隆 如果"星际飞船"能成为200千兆瓦的 |
| 240 | you tell us about Monday's flight, what you learned, how you're feeling about the program? | 你告诉我们周一的航班, 你学到了什么, 你对节目有什么感觉? |
| 241 | I think the Starship is going great. | 我觉得星际飞船很顺利 |
| 242 | We took Starship to orbit for the first time, and we deployed Starlink B3 satellites, which | 我们搭载星舰首次进入轨道, 我们部署了星链B3卫星, |
| 243 | are enormous satellites. | 是巨大的卫星。 |
| 244 | I mean, these are satellites with wingspan of 737, so really enormous. | 我的意思是,这些卫星的翼展为737,非常庞大。 |
| 245 | In fact, it's the largest payload delivered to orbit since Skylab. | 事实上,它是自Skylab以来送入轨道的最大有效载荷. |
| 246 | So now we expect Starship to ultimately, next year I think, probably reach a weekly or twice | 所以现在我们期望星舰最终,明年,我想, 可能达到每周或两次 |
| 247 | weekly cadence. | 每周节奏。 |
| 248 | We've got not Tom Brown here. | 这里没有汤姆·布朗 |
| 249 | I know him by his ex-handle. | 我认识他的前手。 |
| 250 | Welcome. | 欢迎 |
| 251 | Good to see you guys again. | 很高兴再次见到你们。 |
| 252 | It's a long lunch. | 午餐时间很长 |
| 253 | Yes, it was. | 没错 |
| 254 | My car took a wrong turn, so you guys got here faster than me. | 我的车转错弯了 你们来得比我快 |
| 255 | Impressive. | 厉害 |
| 256 | I'm glad you made it. | 我很高兴你能来 |
| 257 | Elon, please continue. | 伊隆,请继续 |
| 258 | We're talking about how Starship is going to let us get to 200 gigs of American solar | 我们说的是星际飞船会如何让我们 得到200吉特的美国太阳能 |
| 259 | with American ships with American superintelligence. | 与美国舰船 与美国超级情报。 |
| 260 | Yes, Starship is going to do a lot of things. | 是的,星舰会做很多事情。 |
| 261 | It's intended to carry enough payload to the moon and Mars to build a self-growing city | 它打算载着足够的载荷到月球和火星 来建立一个自我成长的城市 |
| 262 | on the moon and Mars. | 在月球和火星上。 |
| 263 | I think as a rough order of magnitude, you need about a million tons to deliver to the | 我认为,作为一个粗略的量级顺序, 你需要大约一百万吨 交付给 |
| 264 | moon to create a self-growing city or a similar number for Mars. | 月球为火星创建自我成长的城市或类似数字. |
| 265 | And then in addition, it will launch at least 300 gigawatts a year of AI compute. | 此外,它每年至少将推出300千兆瓦的AI计算. |
| 266 | 200 gigawatts a year would be a 40 percent increase annually in the United States total | 每年200千兆瓦,每年增加40% |
| 267 | energy consumption. | 能源消耗。 |
| 268 | So that's quite a big number. | 所以这是相当大的数字。 |
| 269 | And it might end up being a terawatt one day. | 有一天它可能会变成千兆瓦。 |
| 270 | So this is serious tonnage. | 所以这是严重的吨位。 |
| 271 | Awesome. | 厉害 |
| 272 | And Tom, Anthropic, your company, your co-founder of Anthropic, you announced Opus 5.5 | 汤姆,安特罗皮克,你的公司,你的联合创始人 安特罗皮克,你宣布了Opus 5.5 |
| 273 | in the last several days. | 过去几天 |
| 274 | And I thought maybe we'd go to the exponential that we are on. | 我想也许我们可以去 指数我们是在。 |
| 275 | And I think it's helpful to ground what can Opus 5.5, and maybe it's for everybody, | 我认为它帮助地面什么可以 Opus 5.5, 也许这是每个人, |
| 276 | what can Opus 5.5 do to make the lives of ordinary Americans better today? | 奥普斯5.5能做些什么来改善普通美国人今天的生活? |
| 277 | And where are we going to be in a year? | 一年后我们要去哪儿? |
| 278 | Yeah, so Opus 5.5 is a model that I think just continues the normal progress that we've | 是啊,所以Opus 5.5是一个模型 我认为只是继续 我们的正常进步 |
| 279 | had of getting kind of more IQ points for each of these super intelligences with each | 每一个超级情报员 都能得到更多的智商分数 |
| 280 | model release. | 模型发布。 |
| 281 | And so the main things that people will see if they use it now is that it can do a task | 所以人们会看到的主要事情 如果他们现在使用它 是一个任务 |
| 282 | that takes a longer time than they'd be able to delegate to a previous model. | 这需要更长的时间 他们可以委托给之前的模型。 |
| 283 | And so I think the things that people should see is just like as a normal American, | 所以我认为人们应该看到的东西 就像一个正常的美国人, |
| 284 | if you want a task, if you want to actually delegate a task to it, it will be able to | 如果你想要一个任务, 如果你真的想要将一个任务交给它, 它将能够 |
| 285 | do that better is one thing. | 做得更好是一回事。 |
| 286 | And then two is a thing that I think people notice less, which is just that there's going | 还有两件事情我想人们注意得更少, 也就是说... |
| 287 | to be a huge amount of software being written by these models. | 成为大量软件 这些模型正在写。 |
| 288 | And so all of the products that people use are going to be getting higher quality, | 所以人们使用的所有产品 都会提高质量 |
| 289 | cheaper over time. | 越来越便宜了 |
| 290 | And it'll have this effect of just like all of the tools that we use now were written | 就像我们现在使用的工具一样 |
| 291 | by people doing engineering work. | 由从事工程工作的人。 |
| 292 | And now it's going to be written by both people and super intelligences doing much, | 现在人们和超级情报人员都会写下 |
| 293 | much more engineering work than was possible before. | 工程工作比以前要多得多。 |
| 294 | Absolutely, but I think it's doing so much more than this. | 绝对的,但我觉得它做的 远不止这一点。 |
| 295 | There's already multiple stories of AI, I'm sorry, super intelligence finding a life-saving | 已经有很多关于AI的故事了,对不起,超级智能找到救生机 |
| 296 | drug that can be used for a disease that it wasn't understood that it could safely treat. | 药物,可以用于一种疾病, 它不理解,它可以安全治疗。 |
| 297 | So it's saving lives, I think it's having profound impacts on education, but maybe each | 因此,它拯救了生命, 我认为它对教育有深远的影响, 但也许每个 |
| 298 | of you could talk. | 你可以说话。 |
| 299 | For ordinary Americans, what's super intelligence doing today and what's it going to be able | 对于普通美国人来说 超级智能今天在做什么 还能做什么 |
| 300 | to do in a year? | 一年后做吗? |
| 301 | I'm an ordinary American and I use Claude to help me do research and instead of giving | 我是一个普通的美国人,我利用克劳德 帮我进行研究,而不是给 |
| 302 | me just answers and most of my research, maybe there's comparative research that I'm doing | 我只是回答和大部分的研究, 也许有比较研究,我正在做 |
| 303 | and there's two or three different approaches to something and I wanted to answer a list | 有两三个不同的方法处理一些事情 我想回答一个清单 |
| 304 | of different questions and compare and contrast rates of growth or rates of change or whatever | 比较和对比的增长率或变化率 |
| 305 | it is. | 没错 |
| 306 | And so I describe literally every single question I have. | 所以我描述每个问题 |
| 307 | And nothing gives me more joy and I ask it to create a nice report and plot it out. | 没有什么能让我更高兴的了 我要求它制作一份好的报告 并把它写出来 |
| 308 | Sometimes it's a pie chart, sometimes it's a bar graph, and I just hit enter. | 有时它是一个馅饼图, 有时它是一个条形图, 我刚刚点击输入。 |
| 309 | And nothing gives me more joy than just watching it go. | 没有什么能让我更快乐的了 只是看着它去。 |
| 310 | And then it comes back and it creates a beautiful report. | 然后它又回来了,创造了一个美丽的报告。 |
| 311 | And then instead of researching all these different topics for four, six, eight hours, | 而不是研究所有这些不同的话题 4,6,8小时, |
| 312 | which back in the old days I would on a weekend learn something new, it goes off and creates | 回到昔日,我会在周末学习一些新东西, 它会爆炸并创造 |
| 313 | me this really, really beautiful final report in about three minutes and it's all condensed | 3分钟后,我收到了一份非常,非常漂亮的最终报告, 报告都凝结了 |
| 314 | and now you're getting smarter faster. | 现在你越来越聪明了 |
| 315 | Love it. | 喜欢它。 |
| 316 | What about for you? | 你怎么样? |
| 317 | How are you seeing super intelligence helping ordinary Americans? | 你怎么看到超智能帮助普通美国人? |
| 318 | What do you think it'll do in a year or two? | 一两年后会怎么样? |
| 319 | Maybe a year or two, take a year or two from now. | 也许一两年 以后再过一两年 |
| 320 | Yeah, well I think it's helping people organize their lives and do better at their jobs. | 是的,我想它帮助人们 组织他们的生活 并做更好的工作。 |
| 321 | So I think it really will become essential if it isn't already for people to use AI for | 所以,我认为它真的会 变得至关重要 如果它不是 已经为人们使用AI |
| 322 | their professional lives certainly and in their private lives. | 他们的职业生活和私人生活。 |
| 323 | So AI is just an incredibly helpful, useful thing. | 所以,AI只是 一个令人难以置信的帮助,有用的东西。 |
| 324 | I've heard many anecdotes of AI helping people with medical issues and in many cases where | 我听过很多关于AI的传闻 帮助人们解决医疗问题 很多情况下 |
| 325 | the doctor was wrong and they submitted their x-rays or MRI to AI and AI got it right. | 他们把X光片或核磁共振呈给AI AI说得没错 |
| 326 | But for AI they would have died and I've heard many such cases. | 但对于AI,他们会死 我听说过很多这样的案件。 |
| 327 | And hopefully Opus 5-6 tells Tom, don't take that left, take the right. | 希望Opus 5 -6告诉Tom,不要左转,右转。 |
| 328 | Hopefully. | 希望是这样 |
| 329 | I think it's important these super intelligences, they're imbued with the values of their creators | 我认为这些超级智能很重要, 他们充满了创造者的价值 |
| 330 | and we do have, there are American values that we all share. | 我们确实有, 有美国人的价值观 我们都共享。 |
| 331 | The First Amendment, free speech, commitment to truth. | 第一修正案 言论自由 承诺真理 |
| 332 | Can you talk about what each of you are doing to imbue, help make sure that these super | 你们能说说你们各自在做什么吗? |
| 333 | intelligences are imbued with the right values? | 情报中充满了正确的价值观? |
| 334 | Are we allowed to say anything controversial? | 我们是否可以说些有争议的话? |
| 335 | Say something controversial. | 说些有争议的话 |
| 336 | Okay, so the SI's are tools. | 好吧,所以SI's工具。 |
| 337 | And the challenge with an SI with values, meaning it has judgment, depending on how | 和挑战 一个有价值的SI, 这意味着它有判断,取决于如何 |
| 338 | you use that SI, it may judge you and its effectiveness would be affected by that judgment. | 你使用SI,它可能会判断你,它的有效性会受到该判决的影响. |
| 339 | And so it's a little bit like a steak knife where if you were served medium well, it cuts | 所以它有点像牛排刀 在那里,如果你得到 中好,它削减 |
| 340 | perfectly. | 完美无缺 |
| 341 | But if you were served rare steak and it looks awfully like live meat, somehow it doesn't | 但如果你吃过稀有牛排 看上去非常像活肉 不知怎么的 |
| 342 | cut. | 切开。 |
| 343 | And so I think there's a question in my mind yet about how much judgment you really want | 所以我想我心里有个问题 你究竟想要多少判断 |
| 344 | these tools to have. | 这些工具需要。 |
| 345 | And so the intentions of the user, obviously I use the knife as an example, but you can | 很明显我用刀作为例子 但你可以 |
| 346 | think of a whole bunch of other examples. | 想想其他例子 |
| 347 | The intentions are a little bit different. | 其意略别. |
| 348 | Whether you're a defender or an attacker, for example, in cyber security, the defender's | 无论是卫士还是攻击者 比如网络安全保卫者 |
| 349 | actions could resemble an attacker. | 行动可能像攻击者。 |
| 350 | And you want the defender, you want this SI to activate on behalf of the defender even | 你想要维权者,你希望这个SI代表维权者激活甚至 |
| 351 | though it appears to be an aggressive action. | 虽然这似乎是一种侵略行动。 |
| 352 | Great. | 不错 |
| 353 | I think we're running up on time, but maybe if you guys could share, you spent a lot of | 我想我们正赶时间,但也许你们可以分享,你们花了很多钱 |
| 354 | time at the White House. | 白宫的时候 |
| 355 | Is there anything that you can share with the world about what came out of what was | 你能和世界分享什么吗? |
| 356 | evidently a long and productive lunch? | 明显是长而富有成效的午餐吗? |
| 357 | We did good. | 我们做得很好。 |
| 358 | We signed a joint declaration regarding SI safety. | 我们签署了关于职业安全组织的联合声明。 |
| 359 | And I think that will be published by the White House soon, if it hasn't been already. | 我认为,如果还没有出版,白宫很快就会出版。 |
| 360 | But we agreed to a number of things that include joint monitoring, board special committees, | 但我们同意了一些事情 包括联合监测,董事会特别委员会, |
| 361 | and just generally grading each other's homework, which is a lot better than if people just | 并且只是一般的分级 对方的功课, 这比人们只是 |
| 362 | grade their own homework for obvious reasons. | 出于明显的原因,他们自己考了功课。 |
| 363 | It includes everything from rigorous internal controls, well-established methods, well-established | 它包括从严格的内部控制、既定方法、既定方法、 |
| 364 | processes, very clearly documented intentions of the products that you're building, internal | 过程,非常清晰地记录了 你正在制造的产品的意图,内部 |
| 365 | controls to make sure that you're delivering on those intentions, internal audit that escalates, | 控制确保你兑现这些意图, 内部审计升级, |
| 366 | external audits from a third party, and then industries sharing best practices. | 由第三方进行外部审计,然后由业界分享最佳做法。 |
| 367 | I thought the declaration has a lot of teeth. | 我以为宣言有很多牙齿 |
| 368 | I thought it was really well-written, and I think this is a practice that, quite frankly, | 我觉得写得很好 我想这是个很坦率的做法 |
| 369 | as standards for our industry going forward, every single company ought to embrace. | 作为我们工业前进的标准,每个公司都应该接受。 |
| 370 | So POTUS pulled it all together. | 因此,总统把这一切拉在一起。 |
| 371 | He watched over the meeting and was able to bring everybody out, and I thought it was | 他看着会议 能够把大家带出来 我以为是 |
| 372 | really well-run. | 运行非常顺利。 |
| 373 | Well, on behalf of all Americans, thank all of you for doing everything you can to make | 好了,代表所有美国人,感谢你们所有人 尽你所能,使 |
| 374 | the future as awesome and optimistic for Americans as you can, and you are, so thank you. | 未来对美国人来说是美好的和乐观的,你也是,所以谢谢你。 |
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