7个月不足200人!扎克伯格与亚历山大·王如何打造出爆款Mu
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | At the end of last year, we're like, all right, we are quite excited about the progress. | 在去年年底,我们像,好吧, 我们对进展相当兴奋。 |
| 0:05 | We haven't seen the models yet. | 我们还没有看到模型。 |
| 0:06 | We're going to write this check for, I don't know, $100 billion or $200 billion. | 我们要写这张支票,我不知道,一千亿美元或两千亿美元。 |
| 0:11 | I'm like, Alex, you sure this is going to work? | 我很喜欢,亚历克斯, 你确定这会工作? |
| 0:16 | Cheers. | 欢呼声。 |
| 0:21 | Let's launch it. | 让我们启动它。 |
| 0:25 | So give me the update on Muse. | 给我关于Muse的最新消息 |
| 0:27 | If you were looking at the third-party reports, you would see that this might be the fastest-growing agent or AI app that I think has existed yet. | 如果你在看第三方报告 你会发现这可能是我认为已经存在的 增长最快的代理或AI应用程序 |
| 0:41 | What are your guys' personal favorite Muse use cases, either yours or other people's? | 你的人最喜欢的是什么Muse的案子 无论是你的还是别人的? |
| 0:47 | I was actually talking about this at dinner yesterday. | 我昨天在吃饭时真的在说这个 |
展开字幕全文(1943 条)
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | At the end of last year, we're like, all right, we are quite excited about the progress. | 在去年年底,我们像,好吧, 我们对进展相当兴奋。 |
| 2 | We haven't seen the models yet. | 我们还没有看到模型。 |
| 3 | We're going to write this check for, I don't know, $100 billion or $200 billion. | 我们要写这张支票,我不知道,一千亿美元或两千亿美元。 |
| 4 | I'm like, Alex, you sure this is going to work? | 我很喜欢,亚历克斯, 你确定这会工作? |
| 5 | Cheers. | 欢呼声。 |
| 6 | Let's launch it. | 让我们启动它。 |
| 7 | So give me the update on Muse. | 给我关于Muse的最新消息 |
| 8 | If you were looking at the third-party reports, you would see that this might be the fastest-growing agent or AI app that I think has existed yet. | 如果你在看第三方报告 你会发现这可能是我认为已经存在的 增长最快的代理或AI应用程序 |
| 9 | What are your guys' personal favorite Muse use cases, either yours or other people's? | 你的人最喜欢的是什么Muse的案子 无论是你的还是别人的? |
| 10 | I was actually talking about this at dinner yesterday. | 我昨天在吃饭时真的在说这个 |
| 11 | My favorite thing is I have my Muse, whose name is Euler, constantly source increasingly obscure teas from increasingly sort of like obscure vendors of tea. | 我最喜欢的是 我的Muse,她的名字叫Euler, 不断从越来越隐蔽的茶叶中 找到越来越隐蔽的茶叶。 |
| 12 | So at this point, he's on a weekly basis, my Muse is buying some random tea from some farm in Taiwan or some farm in Japan and sourcing it over and bringing it back. | 所以此时,他每周一次, 我的缪斯正在从台湾的某个农场或日本的某个农场 购买一些随机茶, 并采购过来,带回来。 |
| 13 | What's your favorite Muse use case? | 你最喜欢的Muse用案是什么? |
| 14 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 15 | I mean, I use it for a ton of stuff. | 我的意思是,我用它做一吨的东西。 |
| 16 | I still like, my favorite both use case and probably eval for the product is having it coach me in MMA. | 我还是喜欢,我最喜欢的 既使用箱子, 并且也许 eval产品是 它让我在MMA教练。 |
| 17 | So I put cameras in my gym and I basically, it watches the cameras when I'm in there and it gives me feedback in between the rounds, which is a very hard problem, it turns out. | 所以我把摄像头放进我的健身房, 基本上,当我在那里的时候,它会看着摄像头, 它会给我反馈到中间, 这是一个非常困难的问题, 结果发现。 |
| 18 | Because not only does it have to, it basically has to process all the video quickly enough because you only get one minute in between the rounds. | 因为它不仅需要,它基本上必须快速地处理所有视频, 因为你之间只有一分钟的时间。 |
| 19 | Oh, it coach you between the rounds? | 哦,它指导你之间的回合? |
| 20 | Yeah, I want feedback on how to win. | 是的,我要反馈如何赢 |
| 21 | Did you have to instruct us? | 你一定要教我们吗? |
| 22 | I've wondered about this too, because looking at videos is a really good AI use case. | 我也想知道,因为看视频 是一个非常好的AI使用案例。 |
| 23 | It feels like you can't just give it a multi-gigabyte video file. | 感觉你无法只给它一个多基加比特视频文件. |
| 24 | So do you tell us how to slice stills out of it? | 那么,你告诉我们如何 切出它的静物? |
| 25 | No, it basically, yeah, it pulls stills. | 不,基本上,是的,它拉静态。 |
| 26 | I think it kind of figured that out by itself. | 我想这是自己想出来的 |
| 27 | It turns out that Muse has pretty good native understanding of MMA. | 原来缪斯对MMA有相当良好的本土理解. |
| 28 | So that's good. | 所以这是很好的。 |
| 29 | So like the multi-modal. | 所以,像多模式。 |
| 30 | It's in the model. | 在模型内. |
| 31 | Someone on the team knew. | 团队里有人知道 |
| 32 | Now we're just kind of out there in the corpus. | 现在,我们只是有点 在那里的保镖。 |
| 33 | I think it's a good test of the kind of coding ability. | 我认为这是对编码能力的一种良好测试. |
| 34 | Because really basically what it's doing, it's like within the agent, I'm not seeing any code, | 因为实际上基本上它在做什么, 它就像在特工内部, 我没有看到任何代码, |
| 35 | but it basically is writing this whole video processing image processing pipeline. | 但它基本上 写这整个视频处理 图像处理管道。 |
| 36 | And I'm constantly telling it, all right, you look like you took 30 seconds to give me that feedback. | 我不停地说,好吧,你看起来像花了30秒 给我的反馈。 |
| 37 | I'm going to have a 60-second break. | 得六十刹那间. |
| 38 | You've got to go faster. | 你得快点 |
| 39 | Just optimize yourself, optimize yourself. | 只是优化自己,优化自己。 |
| 40 | So it's I think a good example of how stuff is going to go in the future, | 所以我想一个很好的例子 说明将来会怎样 |
| 41 | where basically everyone is actually going to be writing tons of code. | 基本上每个人都会写很多代码 |
| 42 | They're just not going to know that they're writing code. | 他们不会知道他们在写密码 |
| 43 | What kind of MMA steers does a model give you? | 什么样的MMA导师 会给你一个模型? |
| 44 | You want to see? | 你想看吗? |
| 45 | Basically, let me see if I can pull some stuff out. | 基本上,让我看看,我能不能拉出一些东西。 |
| 46 | But it's basically it gives me a lot of stuff about balance and like hip position, | 但它基本上 它给了我很多的东西 关于平衡 和像臀部位置, |
| 47 | or it's like, oh, you're like when you're kind of inside control here, | 或者它就像,哦,你就像 当你有点 内部控制在这里, |
| 48 | it's just like you're like you didn't get this underhook in this place, | 就像你没有在这个地方得到这个底线一样 |
| 49 | so you're vulnerable to this getting rolled over here. | 所以你很容易被卷进来 |
| 50 | I'll pull up some stuff. | 我会拉一些东西。 |
| 51 | It was definitely one of his first use cases actually of even the initial prototypes. | 这绝对是他最先使用的案例之一 甚至是最初的原型。 |
| 52 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 53 | 我和OpenClob合作过 还没让Muse工作 | |
| 54 | It was just like and then that's what I was saying is it's kind of like become an eval for this too. | 这就像,然后,我是说, 它有点像成为 eval的这一点。 |
| 55 | I actually didn't know that it was an eval for the product, so noted. | 我其实并不知道那是产品的精华 所以注意到了 |
| 56 | How is all this in the model's training data? | 模型的训练数据如何? |
| 57 | Like the fine-grained, this is what an MMA fighter looks like when they're appropriately balanced, | 和精致的战士一样 这就是MMA战斗机在平衡时的样子 |
| 58 | and this is when they're like too much on the back foot, | 这是当他们像 太在后脚, |
| 59 | or just I'm wondering how has it consumed so many images of appropriate versus inappropriate MMA posture? | 或者我想知道它是如何消耗 这么多的图像 适当和不适当的MMA姿态? |
| 60 | Here you could say it's just like it just pulls out frames from it and it's like, | 在这里你可以说,它就像 它只是拉出框 从它,它就像, |
| 61 | I'm like too much on my back leg there. | 我像太多 我的后腿在那里。 |
| 62 | But is this the emergent intelligence like it does actually, | 但是,这是新兴的智能 就像它实际上, |
| 63 | again, does it know from seeing lots of images of MMA, | 再次,它知道 从看到许多MMA的图像, |
| 64 | or does it know because it understands the concept of where you're meant to be balancing its red books about MMA, | 或者它知道,因为它理解的概念 在哪里你应该 平衡它的红色书 关于MMA, |
| 65 | and then it sees that you're too much on the back foot or whatever? | 然后它就会发现你脚后脚太重了? |
| 66 | Well, we did train the models with a lot of visual perception data. | 我们用很多视觉感知数据训练模型。 |
| 67 | I think that that's like kind of making good multimodal models. | 我认为这就像一种 制造良好的多式联运模式。 |
| 68 | This gets into like I think a kind of core approach thing that we have, | 这就像我觉得 一种核心方法的东西 我们有, |
| 69 | which is we're training the models end-to-end to be good personal agents. | 这就是我们训练模型 端到端成为好个人特工。 |
| 70 | The question is like why would Meta want to build these models? | 问题是,梅塔为什么要建造这些模型? |
| 71 | First of all, I think just super intelligence overall is going to allow us to run the company better | 首先,我想只是超级智能整体 将使我们能够更好地管理公司 |
| 72 | and build all kinds of different things. | 并造种种异物. |
| 73 | But for the products that we're building, | 但对于我们制造的产品, |
| 74 | there are certain capabilities and certain mixes of skills that basically are just much more applicable to these cases. | 有些能力和技能组合基本上更适用于这些案件。 |
| 75 | This is one of the things that Alex focused on from the beginning was like, | 这是亚历克斯从一开始就关注的问题之一 |
| 76 | we really want to make sure that our multimodal program is good | 我们真的想确保我们的多模式方案是好的 |
| 77 | because that's disproportionately important for the types of things that people use all these services for. | 因为这对人们使用所有这些服务 的种类非常重要 |
| 78 | How do you train a good multimodal model? | 如何训练好多式联运模式? |
| 79 | Is this where Meta just has an advantage because you guys have so much image and video data? | 这就是Meta有优势的地方 因为你们有这么多的图像和视频数据? |
| 80 | It's very helpful. | 这很有帮助 |
| 81 | Yeah, and I think ultimately like a lot of this it comes down to how are you focused on it, right? | 是啊,我想最终会像很多这样的问题... ... ...... |
| 82 | Like I think because of the fact that we wanted to build personal super intelligence, | 我想是因为我们想建立个人超级智能 |
| 83 | and fundamentally I think most people in the world really experience the world in a highly multimodal way. | 我基本上认为,世界上大多数人 都以高度多式联运的方式体验世界。 |
| 84 | They like talking to other people and listening to things and seeing videos and filming things of their own. | 他们喜欢和别人交谈,倾听事物,看到视频,拍摄自己的事物. |
| 85 | I think most consumers have this highly multimodal experience, | 我认为大多数消费者都有这种 高度多式联运的经验, |
| 86 | and especially earlier this year I think there was actually a point of tension almost in the industry | 特别是今年早些时候 我觉得这行业里 几乎有一点紧张 |
| 87 | because I think so much of the consensus view within the AI industry was that it was just all about coding | 因为我认为AI行业的共识 在于它只是关于编码 |
| 88 | and coding was all that mattered, and I think that for the success of a product like Muse | 编码才是最重要的 我想为了Muse这种产品的成功 |
| 89 | and the success of a lot of these consumer use cases it really depends on the ability to be strong and multimodal. | 以及许多消费者使用案例的成功 真正取决于他们是否有能力 强大和多式联运。 |
| 90 | Yeah, I think we're just kind of scratching the surface of that. | 是啊,我想我们只是 那种刮的表面。 |
| 91 | I mean a lot of the initial theory that we had was that most people don't actually like reading that much, right? | 我的意思是,很多最初的理论 我们曾经是,大多数人 不喜欢阅读这么多,对不对? |
| 92 | So even the kind of text-based interaction model I think it's something that people do. | 所以,即使是那种基于文本的交互模型, 我认为这是人们做的事情。 |
| 93 | And when you think about stuff like the glasses that we're working on or even our other products that are very visual, | 当你想到像眼镜一样的东西 我们的工作,甚至我们的其他产品 非常视觉, |
| 94 | the glasses will eventually just be a pure multimodal product. | 眼镜最终会只是 一种纯粹的多式联运产品。 |
| 95 | It's like you can let it hear what you are listening to and it can talk to you and it can see what you see if you let it, | 就像你可以让它听到你正在听的, 它可以和你说话, 它可以看到你看到的,如果你让它, |
| 96 | and then eventually, I don't even know if we're going to have an app store on the glasses, | 最后,我甚至不知道 我们是否要有一个应用商店 在眼镜上, |
| 97 | it'll just be like a multimodal generation that kind of creates whatever you need right in your vision. | 它只是像一个多模式的一代 那种创造任何你需要的东西 在你的视觉。 |
| 98 | And I imagine something like that will probably end up powering a lot of the kind of apps that we build too. | 我想象这样的东西 可能最终会给很多 我们所建造的应用程序提供动力。 |
| 99 | But yeah, I mean we're still in the early days of that, but for now I mean the perception work has been really impressive. | 但是,是的,我的意思是,我们仍然 在早期, 但是现在,我的意思是, 感知工作 真的很令人印象深刻。 |
| 100 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 101 | I want to ask you guys about the product space here in AI and try something out on you. | 我想问问你们在AI的 产品空间 并试一下你们。 |
| 102 | If I was to describe to you, say with Stripe, what I think a winning product looks like, | 如果我要跟你描述一下 和史黛丽说说 我觉得一个赢的商品看起来像什么 |
| 103 | it would take me pages and pages to talk about because we have the developer experience | 这需要我的页面和页面 谈论因为我们有开发者的经验 |
| 104 | and we have to talk about all the international heterogeneity of payment methods, | 我们必须谈谈所有国际支付方法的异样性, |
| 105 | then we have to talk about stablecoin, it would take me a long time. | 然后我们得谈谈马钱, 这会花我很长时间。 |
| 106 | Whereas I notice a phenomenon in AI where it feels like the winning products collapse very quickly | 我注意到AI里有个现象 感觉胜出的产品很快就崩溃了 |
| 107 | onto an agreed-upon product space that everyone is pursuing. | 进入大家追求的商定产品空间。 |
| 108 | And so Transformers worked and then like the chat agent UI really worked. | 于是变形金刚工作,然后就像聊天代理UI真的工作. |
| 109 | And now we are seeing, you mentioned OpenClaw earlier, the kind of OpenClaw persistent agent, | 现在我们看到,你刚才提到OpenClaw, 那种OpenClaw坚持代理, |
| 110 | has a computer, able to do things, computer use out there in the world view, | 有一台电脑, 能够做一些事情, 电脑使用世界观, |
| 111 | like we're collapsing on that product space. | 就像我们崩溃 在产品空间。 |
| 112 | But there's something about AI where the winning products tend to be very simple, | 但AI有些东西 获胜的产品往往很简单 |
| 113 | pursued by all the companies that are kind of taking it seriously. | 所有公司都认真对待 |
| 114 | You could describe on the back of a postcard, like you could describe very concisely, | 你可以在明信片背面描述 就像你可以描述得非常简洁 |
| 115 | and obviously implementing them is massively complicated, like we'll get into the new model. | 很明显地,执行它们是巨大的复杂, 就像我们将进入新的模式。 |
| 116 | There's huge amounts of frontier work that goes into making a good version, | 有大量的前沿工作 进入一个很好的版本, |
| 117 | but the winning, now you're talking about the glasses or the future versions, | 但获胜者,现在你说的是眼镜或未来的版本, |
| 118 | but somehow there's a very small number of clearly correct products in AI, | 但不知何故,AI中明显正确的产品数量很少, |
| 119 | as opposed to it being this very broad and complicated product space. | 而不是它是一个非常广泛和复杂的产品空间。 |
| 120 | I kind of disagree. | 我有点不同意 |
| 121 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 122 | I mean, well, first of all, I think part of the theory from the beginning was that this kind of agent | 我的意思是,首先,我认为理论的一部分 从一开始是,这种代理 |
| 123 | or whatever form it took was going to be quite a different thing from this text-based assistant. | 不管是什么形式 都会和这个基于文字的助手大不相同 |
| 124 | Every company has one of those. | 每个公司都有一个 |
| 125 | Ours is MetAI, it reaches a ton of people, but it's the same thing that all these companies have. | 我们的是MetAI,它覆盖了一吨人, 但这是同样的东西 所有这些公司有。 |
| 126 | We, I think, specifically think that that is used for very informational purposes, | 我认为,我们特别认为,这被用于非常信息化的目的, |
| 127 | but people don't think about it as a thing that gets stuff done for them. | 但人们不认为这是一件事情 得到的东西为他们做。 |
| 128 | It's retrieval, not delegation or something. | 这是回收,不是授权什么的。 |
| 129 | Yeah, and even when you say it has a computer, yeah, but there's lots of different ways to do that. | 是的,甚至当你说它有一台计算机, 是的,但有很多不同的方式做到这一点。 |
| 130 | I think that it's only this most recent wave that gives the agent a dedicated VM, | 我认为只有最近一波才给特工一个专注的VM |
| 131 | which I think is actually incredibly important for making you feel confident | 我觉得这对让你感到自信很重要 |
| 132 | that the security and privacy of your information is not connecting to some elastic compute that everyone uses. | 您的信息的安全和隐私 不是连接到 某种弹性计算 每个人都使用。 |
| 133 | But my claim isn't that it's easy to implement, nor that it's obvious a priori. | 但我的主张不是说它易于执行,也不是说它显然是先验的. |
| 134 | I think there are going to be a lot of things. | 我想会有很多事情发生 |
| 135 | Okay, you think there's going to be a lot of different things? | 好吧,你认为会有 很多不同的事情? |
| 136 | Because again, my claim is that now that people see Muse, everyone looks at that and says, | 因为,我的要求是,现在人们看到穆斯, 每个人都看着它并说, |
| 137 | oh yeah, that's clearly how you want the AI agent product to work, | 哦,是的,这很明显 你希望AI代理产品的工作, |
| 138 | and that the future AI agent products that we'll see will be fairly Muse-shaped. | 而我们将会看到的未来AI代理产品 将相当的Muse形状。 |
| 139 | So I think my take on this is I think we're just so early in the realm of what AI products will look like | 所以,我想我的假设是,我认为我们只是 这么早的领域 AI产品会是什么样子 |
| 140 | that I think a lot of the interesting differentiation about the products kind of gets collapsed in how we view the products today. | 我认为很多有趣的区别 产品的类型 崩溃在我们今天如何看待产品。 |
| 141 | I think the traditional way in which we wrote down and think about product specs, | 我认为传统的方式 我们写下来 思考产品规格, |
| 142 | those aren't the relevant dimensions and levers and axes to consider the important design decisions on AI-native products. | 这些不是考虑AI本地产品重要设计决定的相关维度和杠杆和轴. |
| 143 | And so Muse, for example, I think so much attention was put in the design of the model for the product, | 举例来说,Muse, 我认为在产品模型的设计中, 已经引起太多的注意, |
| 144 | and there were a lot of very intentional decisions around in all these situations, | 在所有这些情况下 有许多非常有意的决定 |
| 145 | how exactly should the model behave and what's the exact personality of the model in these situations | 模特儿应该怎样表现 模特儿在这种情况下的个性是什么 |
| 146 | and how should it handle these sorts of tool use scenarios. | 以及它应该如何处理这些类型的工具 使用情景。 |
| 147 | And these are very intentional decisions, and probably in the same way that the full spec of how we wanted the model to behave | 这些决定都是有意的, 可能和我们想要模型的行为一样 |
| 148 | in all these scenarios would be an extremely long document. | 在所有这些设想中,这将是一份极为冗长的文件。 |
| 149 | But because of just how we think about products today, it's just AI. | 但由于我们今天对产品的看法,只是AI而已. |
| 150 | It's kind of like how when mobile first started happening, it was like, oh, it's just an app and everything is just an app. | 这有点像手机刚开始的时候, 它就像,哦,它只是一个应用程序,一切都只是一个应用程序。 |
| 151 | Well, it turns out there's a lot of nuance in what exactly an app is, | 嗯,它发现有很多细微的 具体是一个应用程序, |
| 152 | and we're kind of in this phase where, oh, it's just AI or it's just an agent or it's just an agent with a VM or something like that. | 我们正处于这个阶段, 哦,它只是AI 或者它只是一个代理 或者它只是一个代理 与VM或类似的东西。 |
| 153 | But the interesting differentiations we have to tease out. | 但是,有趣的区别,我们必须取笑。 |
| 154 | OK, so you guys think I'm making the classic mistake, which is like my domain is complex and this domain is, again, from a product point of view, simple. | 好了,所以你们认为我犯了一个经典的错误, 这就像我的域是复杂的, 这个域也是,从产品的角度来说,很简单。 |
| 155 | It's like all payment processors seem the same. | 就像所有付款处理器都一样 |
| 156 | I really agree with what you're saying. | 我非常同意你说的 |
| 157 | One thing that we talked about from early on is that basically there is this pattern where I think the products are getting thinner | 我们从早到晚谈的一件事是 基本上有这种模式 我认为产品越来越稀薄 |
| 158 | and the model is getting to be more of the product. | 模型越来越成为产品。 |
| 159 | So one of the things that we say internally is like the model is the product. | 所以,我们内部所说的一件事就是, 模型就是产品。 |
| 160 | And when you're talking about an agent, a lot of the complex product work that went into Muse | 当你谈论一个代理, 很多复杂的产品工作 进入Muse |
| 161 | is basically around the privacy and security model for handling your data and the things that get connected to it. | 基本上围绕着处理你的数据的隐私和安全模式 以及与之相连的东西。 |
| 162 | And that, I think, is something that we're just very proud of that we really focused on. | 我认为,这是我们非常自豪的事情, 我们真正专注于它。 |
| 163 | But that's a lot of the product surface that we need to innovate on. | 但是,这是很多的产品表面 我们需要创新。 |
| 164 | But the capabilities, the personality, a lot of the stuff is like you're training into the model. | 但是能力,个性,很多东西 就像你正在训练进入模型。 |
| 165 | And whether they're the people in the lab who are working on that or the people on Nat's team who are working on the product, | 不管是实验室里的人在研究这个 还是在纳特团队里的人在研究这个产品 |
| 166 | I think when Nat is thinking about what is the key stuff that we need to make the product feel good, | 我想当纳特想着什么是关键的东西 我们需要让产品感觉良好, |
| 167 | he's talking about post-training the model, right? | 他说的是训练后模特儿,对吧? |
| 168 | Not like, I mean, of course, the UI of the product matters too, but the most important part of the UI is the product. | 当然,我并不是说产品的UI也很重要,但是UI最重要的部分是产品. |
| 169 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 170 | I think there's still very viscerally, I think from a user, there's a feeling of using Muse over time. | 我认为,从用户的角度看, 仍有一种长期使用Muse的感觉。 |
| 171 | And maybe some meaningful portion of that is just the reliability of Muse to handle certain tasks. | 也许其中的有意义的部分 只是Muse处理某些任务的可靠性。 |
| 172 | But then another meaningful portion is how is it proactive? | 但另一个有意义的部分是它是如何积极主动的? |
| 173 | And in what context is it proactive? | 在什么背景下是积极主动的? |
| 174 | And when it talks to you, how do you feel about how it talks to you? | 当它和你说话时,你对它怎么跟你说话有什么感觉? |
| 175 | And so there's clearly a lot of, and I'm starting to see more and more of this actually show up on the X feed, | 因此,显然有很多, 我开始看到越来越多的 这个实际出现 在X的种子, |
| 176 | which are people are starting to tease out these, they're all proactive agents, | 他们都是主动的特工 |
| 177 | but what are the actual meaningful differences between them? | 但是它们之间有什么实际有意义的区别? |
| 178 | And these, I think, are the interesting product decisions, which the funny thing is, how do you specify these part decisions? | 我认为,这些是有趣的产品决定, 有趣的是,你如何说明这些部分的决定? |
| 179 | Well, it's ultimately in model design decisions, which ultimately boil down to training methods or data or valves or all these things. | 最终是由模型设计决定的, 最终归结为培训方法或数据或阀门或所有的东西。 |
| 180 | Yes. | 对 |
| 181 | As we talk about product space, one notable Muse detail is that there is no model selector and no effort selector. | 在我们谈论产品空间时,一个值得注意的Muse细节是,没有模型选择器,也没有努力选择器. |
| 182 | Do you guys think that's just obviously correct in a consumer AI product? | 你们觉得消费者AI产品显然正确吗? |
| 183 | I just want to make it simple. | 我只是想让事情变得简单。 |
| 184 | Yeah, I think that we've been, I think somewhat infamously, a lot of the AI products have been designed by a highly technical group | 是的,我认为我们一直, 我认为有些不光彩, 许多AI产品 已经设计了一个高技术组 |
| 185 | that do not have the sort of randomly sampled American in their mental model. | 在他们的心理模型中没有随机抽样的美国人 |
| 186 | And so the products, I mean, the naming of some of the models is so egregious. | 所以产品,我的意思是, 一些模型的命名是如此惊人。 |
| 187 | The numbers go backwards. | 数字往后走。 |
| 188 | Some of the times the numbers go backwards, and sometimes it's just like a totally different word, and you have another set of words. | 有些时候数字倒着, 有时它就像一个完全不同的词, 你有另一组词。 |
| 189 | And just like, how is somebody who's not carefully reading API design specs supposed to know what they're supposed to pick? | 就像,一个不仔细阅读API设计规格的人 怎么会知道应该选什么? |
| 190 | It's just far too confusing. | 这太混乱了 |
| 191 | OK, we're talking about models a lot. | 我们经常谈模特儿 |
| 192 | Tell me about the new model. | 说说新模型. |
| 193 | It sounds awesome. | 这听起来真棒。 |
| 194 | Yeah, I mean, I think we're quite proud of this. | 是啊,我的意思是,我觉得我们 相当骄傲这一点。 |
| 195 | Yeah, the new model, Muse Wonder, it's a new class of model that is at the frontier. | 是啊,新的模型,Muse Wonder, 这是一个新的类型的模型 在前沿。 |
| 196 | I mean, we've basically been working on this since the beginning. | 我们从一开始就一直在研究这个 |
| 197 | Basically, when you're doing these pre-trains, you don't just go to whatever the biggest cluster is that you have. | 基本上,当你做这些预赛的时候, 你不只是去 最大的集群是你所拥有的。 |
| 198 | You want to work your way up the ladder, training models that are maybe four or five times bigger, and then you just keep on repeating that process. | 你想在梯子上努力, 训练模型, 可能大四五倍, 然后你继续重复这个过程。 |
| 199 | So the first set of models that we've had, Muse Spark, was all based on this initial pre-train that we did in, what was it, December? | 所以,我们拥有的第一套模型,Muse Spark, 都基于这个初步的预列车, 是什么,12月? |
| 200 | Yeah, the end of last year. | 是的,去年的结束。 |
| 201 | Yeah, and it's actually, I mean, I think we've all just been quite surprised and impressed with how much intelligence and capability the team has been able to kind of build into a model which is frankly not that big. | 是啊,其实,我的意思是, 我想我们只是非常惊讶 并给大家留下了深刻的印象, 团队能够建立多少 智能和能力 成为一个模型, 坦率地说,它不是那么大。 |
| 202 | And then after that, we were working on this next model, and the pre-train has been done for a bit, and we've been working on the post-training, and now it is here. | 之后,我们研究了这个下一个模型, 预训已经做了一点, 我们研究了后训练,现在它就在这里。 |
| 203 | So it's the next kind of class of model that is significantly bigger, so I think you will kind of feel that in terms of the nuance in which it can think. | 所以,这是下一类的模型, 显著的更大, 所以我想你会觉得, 从它能思考的细微差别来看。 |
| 204 | And it really, a lot of the areas that we focused on were making it the best personal and professional, agentic model. | 这真的,我们所关注的许多领域 都使它成为最好的个人和专业的代理模式。 |
| 205 | Some of the different things that you can optimize for, that's it for us. | 一些不同的东西,你可以优化, 这就是我们。 |
| 206 | And then, yeah, I mean, a lot of the basic capabilities that we focused on building in, I mean, very good memory, kind of very good ability to persist through complicated tasks. | 然后,是的,我的意思是,很多基本的能力, 我们专注于建设, 我的意思是,非常好的记忆, 那种非常好的能力 坚持完成复杂的任务。 |
| 207 | But, I mean, a ton of work went into this across the lab and the product teams and all of this, and I think it's also just sort of a testament to the team being able to methodically figure out the process to scale these models. | 但是,我的意思是,一吨工作 进入了整个实验室 和产品团队 以及所有这一切, 我认为它也只是一种证明 团队能够有条不紊地 找出这些模型的规模。 |
| 208 | So I think this is also just a milestone on the way towards the time between each subsequently bigger class of models, I think, will now start to kind of compress, and that's very exciting for the type of stuff that we can build. | 因此,我认为这也只是一个里程碑, 走向每一个后来的更大的模型类别之间的时间, 我认为,现在将开始压缩, 这对我们能够制造的东西来说是非常刺激的。 |
| 209 | At Meta or in the industry generally? | 在梅塔还是整个行业? |
| 210 | At Meta. | 在梅塔(英语:Meta). |
| 211 | I mean, I think you're saying something like this everywhere else, but I think part of it... | 我意思是,我认为你在说类似的东西 其他地方,但我认为这是一部分... |
| 212 | Is this an RSI effect or something else? | 这是RSI效应还是别的? |
| 213 | Well, I think at Meta, part of this is just we needed to... | 我想在梅塔,我们需要... |
| 214 | Well, I think quite famously, we were not happy with the trajectory that we were on with Lama 4. | 我认为很有名的是 我们对跟喇嘛4的轨迹不满意 |
| 215 | We kind of rebuilt the whole team. | 我们重建了整个团队 |
| 216 | I mean, that's been this kind of crazy thing over the last year and a half that we should probably spend a bunch of time on. | 我的意思是,这是这种疯狂的事情 在过去的一年半, 我们也许应该花 一堆时间。 |
| 217 | We'll get to that, yeah, yeah. | 我们会得到,是的,是的。 |
| 218 | Some war stories. | 一些战争故事。 |
| 219 | But the team basically had to go build up different tiers of models to kind of get to this one. | 但是,团队基本上必须去 建立不同层次的模型 来达到这个。 |
| 220 | And now that we are kind of at the frontier, now everything that we do going forward will just kind of be pushing the frontier, | 而现在,我们有点在边境, 现在,我们所做的一切 前进将只是那种推动边境, |
| 221 | as opposed to there's a lot of kind of background work that we needed to do before that. | 而不是有很多类型的背景工作 我们需要做之前。 |
| 222 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 223 | What would you say? | 你会说什么? |
| 224 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 225 | Well, I think we're really excited about it. | 嗯,我觉得我们真的很兴奋。 |
| 226 | We will have two sort of two models in this series that are going to be available. | 我们将有两种模式 在这个系列中,将会有两种模式。 |
| 227 | 因此,有Muse Wonder和Muse Wonder Full. 穆斯Wonder是一款游戏. | |
| 228 | Laugh. | 笑个甚么. |
| 229 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 230 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 231 | There you go. | 给你。 |
| 232 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 233 | Very good. | 很不错。 |
| 234 | Which is basically a much higher end. | 这基本上是一个更高端。 |
| 235 | There's no studio band version. | 没有录音室乐队版本. |
| 236 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 237 | No. | 没有 |
| 238 | A much higher end model. | 一个更高端的模型。 |
| 239 | 这是Muse Wonder的完整版本. | |
| 240 | I know. | 我知道,我记得 |
| 241 | I got it. | 我来 |
| 242 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 243 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 244 | It's two words. | 谓二句. |
| 245 | Wonder Full 版本 。 | |
| 246 | You're clearly a father. | 你显然是一个父亲。 |
| 247 | What's up? | 这是怎么回事? |
| 248 | Excellent dad joke. | 很棒的爸爸笑话。 |
| 249 | There you go. | 给你。 |
| 250 | And the performance, I mean, we've seen like incredible performance across a slate of evaluations on personal, professional, agentic tasks. | 表演,我的意思是,我们已经看到 令人难以置信的表演 跨越一系列关于个人, 专业,代理任务的评价。 |
| 251 | It's state of the art based on our measurement. | 根据我们的测量结果,这是最先进的 |
| 252 | And then there's a number of, I think, specific highlights which we're really excited about, which we've designed into the model over time. | 还有,我想,我们非常兴奋的 一些具体的亮点, 随着时间的推移,我们设计了模型。 |
| 253 | So active memory, like Mark mentioned, is one area where we think that to build personal agents, personal and professional agents, | 就像马克提到的 活跃的记忆是一个领域 我们认为要建立个人特工 个人和专业特工 |
| 254 | like memory is just one of the clear requirements to build reliable agents and is one of the areas where we've invested, I think, disproportionately actually compared to many of the other efforts. | 就像记忆只是建立可靠代理人的明确要求之一, 也是我们投入的领域之一, 我认为,实际上与许多其他努力相比, 是不成比例的。 |
| 255 | And we have our own internal evals of memory bench, which demonstrate a lot of the capabilities there. | 我们有我们内部的记忆长凳, 展示出很多的能力。 |
| 256 | What does memory mean in a model to a layperson? | 模特儿对外行人来说 记忆是什么意思? |
| 257 | Is it just how much stuff it can, like the working memory of if you're working on a task, how much stuff the model can kind of keep in its, how is it different from context? | 是不是它能保存多少东西, 比如工作记忆,如果你在做一项任务, 模型能保存多少东西, 和上下文有什么不同? |
| 258 | I think it's in the experience of using the model. | 我想这是在使用模型的经验。 |
| 259 | How well does it remember things that you mentioned to it over days, weeks or months and then leverage those in the process of doing future tasks? | 它在多大程度上记得你在几天、几周或几个月里提到的事情,然后利用那些正在完成未来任务的人? |
| 260 | I see. | 原来如此 |
| 261 | 这是OpenClaw的窃听器 | |
| 262 | Like, I think we're all extremely fond of OpenClaw, very happy OpenClaw user, but it ultimately does this compaction where it has like the long-term memory and the working short-term memory or whatever. | 像,我认为我们都非常喜欢OpenClaw, 非常快乐的OpenClaw用户, 但最终它做这个紧凑的地方 它有像长期记忆和工作短期记忆之类的。 |
| 263 | And I think once people use OpenClaw for a while, they find the memory pretty buggy. | 我想一旦人们使用OpenClaw一段时间, 他们就会发现记忆很模糊。 |
| 264 | Yeah, so we've designed basically both the model and a system for the model to use to develop a much stronger form of memory. | 所以我们设计了模型和系统 用来开发更强大的记忆 |
| 265 | We call it active memory. | 我们称之为活动记忆。 |
| 266 | In addition, as Mark mentioned on the persistence. | 此外,正如马克在持久性方面提到的那样。 |
| 267 | But so this is outside the model, like the model exists. | 但是,这是在模型之外, 就像模型存在。 |
| 268 | No, no, but some of the capabilities that you're talking about, like the compaction, are things that the model does. | 不,不,但是你所说的一些能力, 比如紧凑,是模型做的东西。 |
| 269 | Right, so basically being able to do this well both with the agent. | 好吧,所以基本上 能够做到这一点 与代理。 |
| 270 | It's not a harness, it's in the model itself. | 它不是绳子,而是在模型本身。 |
| 271 | Yes, it's in the model itself. | 是的,它是在模型本身。 |
| 272 | Exactly, yeah, yeah. | 没错,是啊,是啊。 |
| 273 | So it's aware of its memory as a core system. | 因此它意识到它的记忆是一个核心系统. |
| 274 | And it's about how it's able to leverage various sources to be able to conduct tasks in the future, as well as understand its ability to do compaction, how it should do that compaction most effectively, et cetera. | 它是如何利用各种来源 来完成未来的任务的, 以及理解它做压缩的能力, 如何最有效地做压缩等等。 |
| 275 | Okay, but this is a big deal, because I think a lot of people's early experience of AI agents has been buggy memory. | 好吧,但这是个大问题, 因为我认为很多人的早期经验 AI的代理一直有错误的记忆。 |
| 276 | And so, yeah, improvement that is. | 所以,是的,这是改进。 |
| 277 | And to be clear, there's still plenty of room to improve, like our evaluations show this. | 说得很清楚,仍有很大的改进余地, 就像我们的评价所显示的。 |
| 278 | But this is something that we're quite proud of, and we think this is a meaningful contribution. | 但是,这是我们相当自豪的, 我们认为这是一个有意义的贡献。 |
| 279 | Okay, so active memory is one thing. | 好吧,所以积极的记忆是一回事。 |
| 280 | Yeah, active memory, active focus is another, which is effectively just the ability for the model to, you know, when conducting tasks, be able to sort of carry them through. | 是的,活性记忆,活性焦点是另一个, 这实际上只是 模型的能力,你知道,当执行任务时, 能够排序地通过它们。 |
| 281 | Especially as we've seen Muse users, as well as Muse code users, give sort of like higher and higher complexity and more and more ambiguous and more and more complex tasks, we want the model to be able to conduct those and do those very effectively. | 特别是当我们看到Muse的用户,以及Muse的代码用户, 给出了类似更高和更高的复杂性, 以及越来越模糊和越来越复杂的任务时, 我们希望这个模型能够 进行这些并且非常有效。 |
| 282 | And this is one of the things actually in early dogfooding and testing that a lot of people have noticed about the model that is sort of special and stands out with respect to other models that they've tried or used. | 在早期的狗食和测试中, 很多人都注意到了 一种特殊的模型, 相对于他们尝试或使用过的其他模型来说,它非常突出。 |
| 283 | The third one is domain expertise. | 第三个是领域专门知识。 |
| 284 | Is focus in AI terms? | 用人工智能来说是焦点吗? |
| 285 | Is it like putting a lot of compute on the task? | 这就像给任务做很多计算吗? |
| 286 | Is this getting distracted with other, like, kind of persistence? | 这是否与其它的一样, 一种坚持? |
| 287 | Yeah, like persistence. | 是啊,像坚持。 |
| 288 | It's basically like the ability to conduct complete tasks over very long horizons. | 基本上就像在很长的地平线上完成全部任务的能力. |
| 289 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 290 | And then when faced with various setbacks along the way, the ability to sort of identify other solutions to those problems in an aligned way. | 然后,在一路遇到各种挫折时,能够以一致的方式找到解决这些问题的其他办法。 |
| 291 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 292 | Then there's, it's actually a big step up in coding capabilities, so frontier coding capabilities. | 接下来,它实际上在编码能力上迈出了一大步,所以是前沿编码能力. |
| 293 | So it is actually state of the art on DeepSui and Sui Marathon and does very well on other benchmarks like Terminal Bench 4 and many others. | 因此它实际上在DeepSui和Sui Marathon上达到了最先进的水平,并且在诸如终端座椅4等其他许多基准上也做得非常好. |
| 294 | So we think that, you know, users who use it for coding, which will be a minority of all of our users, but the ones who do, will see a big improvement and a big step up. | 所以,我们觉得,用它来编码的用户, 将是我们所有用户中少数的, 但那些这样做的用户, 将会看到一个很大的改进, 一个很大的步骤。 |
| 295 | Okay, so we should also just be using MuseWonder full for coding at Stripe. | 好吧,所以我们也应该 使用MuseWonder 充电的编码 在史黛芬。 |
| 296 | Potentially, yeah. | 很有可能,是的。 |
| 297 | I mean, let's go out there and tell the... | 我们出去告诉... |
| 298 | But like if it's state of the art on Sui Bench, yeah. | 但就像苏伊法官的艺术水平一样 |
| 299 | We'd be missing out. | 我们会错过。 |
| 300 | Yeah, yeah, no, it's a big improvement on coding. | 是啊,是啊,不,这是一个很大的改进 编码。 |
| 301 | I mean, obviously, you know, we want people to try it and see how they experience it, but we've been very pleased in our own internal testing. | 我的意思是,很明显,你知道, 我们希望人们去尝试,看看他们是如何体验的, 但我们在自己的内部测试中非常满意。 |
| 302 | Okay, so this is... | 好吧,所以这是... |
| 303 | Yeah, I think people will like it for a lot of things. | 是啊,我想人们会喜欢它 很多事情。 |
| 304 | Okay, so this is both just your latest frontier model, like people can come, you know, developers can come directly to you, they can use it on an open router, like they can just consume it as a model. | 好吧,所以这都是你最新的前沿模型, 就像人们可以来,你知道,开发者可以直接来找你, 他们可以用在开放的路由器上, 就像他们可以消费它作为一个模型一样。 |
| 305 | And it's also a big upgrade inside of Muse that people will just feel as, you know, active users of Muse. | 这也是Muse内部的一次大升级, 人们会觉得,你知道,Muse的活跃用户。 |
| 306 | Yeah, well, what we're going to do in Muse, because it's a lot bigger and it's more expensive to serve, where we're going to start off primarily in paid subscriptions. | 是啊,嗯,我们在Muse要做的, 因为它是大得多, 它更昂贵的服务, 我们在那里开始主要 付费订阅。 |
| 307 | So what we want to do with Muse as a product, we want it to be free for everyone to use, so we have this huge amount of free tokens that people can use with Muse Spark as the model. | 所以,我们想用Muse作为产品, 我们希望它可以免费让所有人使用, 所以我们有这么多免费的代币, 人们可以用Muse Spark作为模型。 |
| 308 | But if you want to use Wunder for most of the hard tasks, then at least for now, you'll use the paying version. | 但如果你想用Wunder来完成大部分的艰难任务,那么至少现在,你会使用付费版本. |
| 309 | But, you know, I mean, eventually we'll, you know, quickly the field moves, and we hope to, you know, at some point, not too far from now, have a model that is as good as Wunder, but in the Spark form factor. | 但是,你知道,我的意思是,我们最终会,你知道, 迅速的实地移动, 我们希望,你知道,在某个时候, 离现在不远的地方, 有一个和Wunder一样好的模型, 但是在Spark形式因素中。 |
| 310 | And that will be a great thing to be able to serve hundreds of millions of people around the world. | 这将是一个伟大的事情 能够服务全世界亿万人民。 |
| 311 | Okay, so you go to Muse, you subscribe to the, what's it called, like the premium or pro plan, or you pay money. | 好吧,所以你去缪斯, 你订阅, 它叫什么, 像溢价或专业计划, 或者你支付钱。 |
| 312 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 313 | And just don't stop until you've taken out your credit card. | 在你拿出信用卡之前别停下来 |
| 314 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 315 | And then you'll be able to, you'll select it or it'll just magically... | 然后,你可以,你会选择它 或者它只是神奇的... |
| 316 | Oh, it just gets better. | 哦,它只是变得更好。 |
| 317 | It just gets better for you. | 它只是变得更好给你。 |
| 318 | And... | 还有... |
| 319 | 然后也可以在API,金属模型API和OpenRouter上找到. | |
| 320 | And then it'll also be available for Muse code users. | 然后它也会提供给Muse代码用户. |
| 321 | So, and then Muse Wunder full will be available to subscribers of Muse code. | 因此,然后Muse Wunder的完整将提供给Muse代码的订阅者. |
| 322 | So there's, it's pretty exciting, I think we want to, you know, as Mark mentioned, it is a much larger model. | 所以,这是非常令人兴奋的, 我认为我们想, 你知道,正如马克提到的, 这是一个更大的模型。 |
| 323 | And so we're working through how to serve that most effectively to as many people as possible. | 所以,我们正在努力 如何最有效地为尽可能多的人服务。 |
| 324 | But we're excited to get it in the hands of as many people as possible. | 但我们很兴奋地把它交给尽可能多的人手中. |
| 325 | It's a big step forward. | 谓前大步. |
| 326 | I mean, this is like, and we really with Muse Spark, we were very happy with the performance that we were able to deliver as we were getting up to this point. | 我的意思是,这就像,我们真的 与Muse Spark, 我们非常满意的 表演,我们做到了 在这一点上。 |
| 327 | But like, this is the beginning of like, MSL kind of being at the frontier. | 但是,就像,这是开始 像,MSL有点 在前沿。 |
| 328 | We feel like the models are quite competitive with the best models that are out there. | 我们觉得模型 相当有竞争力 与最好的模型 在那里。 |
| 329 | And I think that... | 我觉得... |
| 330 | Okay, so you think it's like Astrophable and Wunder all together at the frontier? | 好吧,所以你认为这就像可以天体 和Wunder 一起在边境? |
| 331 | Yeah, well, I mean, you can look at it. | 是啊,我的意思是,你可以看看它。 |
| 332 | Just empirically, by the benchmarks, you think... | 从经验来看,根据基准,你认为... |
| 333 | By the benchmarks, one would conclude that, yes. | 根据基准,可以得出这样的结论。 |
| 334 | I see, yes. | 原来如此 |
| 335 | And I think actually, one of the things that we're especially proud of is, you know, we have taken the time, kind of as we've mentioned, to optimize models for the product form factor of Muse. | 我认为,我们特别引以为傲的一件事是, 你知道,我们已经花时间,就像我们提到的, 优化了Muse产品形式因素的模型。 |
| 336 | So this is the state of the art model. | 这就是艺术模型的状态。 |
| 337 | We think it really is the best model in the world for the use case of personal and professional agents. | 我们认为,这确实是世界上最好的模式, 用于个人和专业代理。 |
| 338 | People inside companies like complaining about Goodheart's law, you know, a metric that becomes a target ceases to become a good metric. | 公司内部的人喜欢抱怨 Goodheart的律法, 你知道,一个成为目标的指标 不再成为一个好的衡量标准。 |
| 339 | You hear complaints that models are bench maxed and that at a certain point, kind of overfitting to the benchmarks actually makes the models slightly worse. | 你听到的抱怨是,模型是最大级的, 在某一时刻, 有点过于符合基准 实际使模型稍差。 |
| 340 | As people who actually have to train AI models, is that true? | 作为真正需要训练AI模型的人,这是真的吗? |
| 341 | Are the benchmarks pretty good at grading models? | 这些基准是否对定级模型相当好? |
| 342 | Do you start to see like weird edge failure cases from the... | 你开始看到像怪异的边缘故障 案件从... |
| 343 | Benchmarks have to keep moving, right? | 基准必须继续移动,对不对? |
| 344 | Because like every... | 因为像每一个... |
| 345 | I mean, it happens very quickly, but they just get saturated so quickly. | 我的意思是,它发生得很快, 但他们只是得到饱和如此之快。 |
| 346 | So I mean, I do think that... | 所以我觉得... |
| 347 | Do you think non-saturated benchmarks are fine? | 你认为不饱和的基准很好吗? |
| 348 | I mean, as we've gone on, we steer the models more towards our internal benchmarks for the use cases that we're focused on. | 我的意思是,随着我们继续前进, 我们引导模型 更多向内部基准 我们的用例,我们专注于。 |
| 349 | So early on when we were kind of just doing the science of trying to climb the ladder, we cared more about what the external benchmarks were just to make sure we were on the right track. | 所以,在我们刚刚开始尝试攀登梯子时, 我们更关心外部基准是什么, 以确保我们走上正确的道路。 |
| 350 | And then I'd say, you know, each release that goes by the larger share of what we're looking at are our internal ones. | 然后,我会说,你知道, 每一个发行 由更大的份额 我们所看到的是我们的内部。 |
| 351 | And one of the things that we actually quantified in our research blog post as part of Me's Wonder is this metric for big model smell, which is kind of, you know, big model smell and feeling of bench maxing are kind of like inverses. | 作为"我的神奇"的一部分,我们的研究博客文章中 将一个数字化的事物 是一个关于大模型气味的衡量标准, 这是一种,你知道的,大模型气味 和长凳最大感 有点像反面。 |
| 352 | This idea that you can just like tell when you're using a really big model. | 这个想法,你可以只是喜欢知道 当你使用一个真正的大模型。 |
| 353 | It just... you can tell. | 它只是... 你可以告诉。 |
| 354 | It just has nuance. | 它只是有细微的。 |
| 355 | It's got that genocer claw. | 它的基因发爪。 |
| 356 | And so the way we quantify that is actually almost explicitly what you're mentioning, which is the gap between in distribution performance and out of distribution performance. | 我们的量化方法 几乎是你们提到的, 就是分配性能与分配性能之间的差距。 |
| 357 | So what is the... you know, we kind of measure how well does the model perform on tasks that are in distribution of our RL and post-training versus tasks that are out of distribution? | 那么,什么是... 你知道,我们有种 衡量这个模型是如何执行 任务在分配 我们的RL和 培训后的任务 相对于 分配出的任务? |
| 358 | And what does that gap look like for... what does that gap look like between the Me's Spark line and the Me's Wonder line? | 那间隙是什么样子的... 那间隙是什么样子的... |
| 359 | And we actually see this huge step up from the Me's Spark to the Me's Wonder line because of, as Mark mentioned, like it's just a much better base model powering this new line. | 我们实际上看到这个巨大的步骤 从"我的火花"到"我的奇妙线", 因为,正如马克所提到的, 它只是一个更好的基础模型,为这条新线提供动力。 |
| 360 | And there's an entire genocer claw to that. | 还有一个完整的基因组爪子 |
| 361 | But I think we've been able to actually quantify this effect. | 但是,我认为我们已经能够 量化这种效果。 |
| 362 | Yes. | 对 |
| 363 | And it's an obviously dimension that we're excited to continue improving on. | 它显然是一个维度, 我们兴奋地继续改进。 |
| 364 | But if you're saying that external benchmarks have ceased to become as important and you care much more about your internal benchmarks, | 但如果你说外部基准不再重要了 你更关心你的内部基准 |
| 365 | is that kind of an argument against benchmarking that you think that just trying to get the top score on the external benchmarks that everyone talks about is maybe not going to lead you to develop a great model? | 那种反对基准的争论,你认为,仅仅试图在大家谈论的外部基准上获得最高分也许不会导致你发展出一个伟大的模型? |
| 366 | Well, yeah, but also we're focused on specific things. | 嗯,是的,但是我们也专注于具体的事情。 |
| 367 | I mean, part of the whole strategy is personal super intelligence and just trying to build different types of products that other people are trying to build. | 我的意思是,整个策略的一部分是个人的超级智能, 并且只是试图建立不同种类的产品, 其他人正在试图建造。 |
| 368 | So even if we did have the exact same evals as everyone else, it just... | 所以,即使我们有 完全一样的 evals 和其他人一样,它只是... |
| 369 | Yes, and though I would say a personal super intelligence is not like a super niche interest. | 是的,虽然我会说个人的超级智能 不像超级特殊利益。 |
| 370 | It's probably something that other models won't be able to do. | 这可能是其他模型无法做到的事情. |
| 371 | I think that there are things that are very different about it. | 我认为有些事情是完全不同的。 |
| 372 | I mean, I think like the personality probably matters more. | 我觉得性格可能更重要 |
| 373 | I mean, one of the things that we talk about is this idea of discretion. | 我的意思是,我们谈论的一件事 就是这种谨慎的想法。 |
| 374 | So if you want to use the model to get something done, | 所以如果你想用模型来做点什么 |
| 375 | it needs to be able to know a lot about you and get things done in the world while disclosing as little as possible. | 它需要能够 了解你很多 并让事情在世界上完成 同时尽可能少披露。 |
| 376 | So if you have an allergy or you're pregnant or something, you're trying to get a table at a restaurant | 所以,如果你有过敏或你怀孕了什么的, 你试图得到一个桌子 在餐厅 |
| 377 | and you don't want to have to tell them your medical condition to make sure that it's going to be a good place for you, | 而你不想告诉他们你的病情 以确保这对你有好处 |
| 378 | I mean, humans have common sense and the model so far, | 我的意思是,人类有常识 和模型到目前为止, |
| 379 | if you're building a coding agent that works in an environment where everyone has access to the same context, | 如果你正在建造一个编码代理 在每个人都能进入同一环境的环境中工作 |
| 380 | discretion isn't particularly important. | 谨慎并不特别重要。 |
| 381 | So there are all these things that I think are just kind of more important for us. | 所以,有所有这些东西 我认为只是一种 对我们更重要。 |
| 382 | Aspects of coding where the code needs to work, but the consumers who are using it may not even ever see the code. | 代码需要起作用的部分编码,但正在使用它的消费者甚至可能从未看到代码. |
| 383 | I mean, that probably matters more in a personal superintelligence context rather than serving software developers. | 我的意思是,这也许在个人的超级智能背景下更重要, 而不是为软件开发者服务。 |
| 384 | So I think these things are just a bit different. | 所以我认为这些事情只是有点不同。 |
| 385 | Ultimately, we care about making useful models. | 归根结底,我们关心做有用的模型。 |
| 386 | So we want models when you put them into people's hands, they have a great experience using. | 所以我们需要模型,当你把它们放在人们的手中, 他们有很好的经验使用。 |
| 387 | And I think that is the most important metric for any model that we or other people produce. | 我认为这是我们或其他人生产的任何模型最重要的衡量标准。 |
| 388 | I think that really, really focusing on the external benchmarks, | 我认为,真的,真的 专注于外部基准, |
| 389 | if you really dig into the supply chain a little bit, | 如果你真的挖进 供应链一点点, |
| 390 | it's some PhD student who made these benchmarks as part of the course of them doing their PhD. | 是一些博士生把这些基准 当作他们完成博士课程的一部分 |
| 391 | And so you're kind of outsourcing all of your product thinking to that PhD student who happened to make a viral benchmark. | 所以你将你所有的产品 外包给那个碰巧做病毒基准的博士生。 |
| 392 | So clearly that's wrong. | 很明显这是错误的。 |
| 393 | And so that's why we care a lot. | 这就是为什么我们在乎很多。 |
| 394 | A huge part of what a lot of people at Meta and MSL are focused on is crafting amazing evals. | Meta和MSL的很多人关注的其中一大部分 是制作惊人的爱华。 |
| 395 | And now that we have them, we can work on our own. | 现在我们有了它们,我们可以自己去工作。 |
| 396 | But if you're building like a ramping up of your lab, right? | 但如果你正在建设 就像你的实验室,对不对? |
| 397 | It's like those public ones are not a crazy place to start, but it's just not where you want to end up. | 这就像那些公共的不是 一个疯狂的开始的地方, 但这只是不是你想要的结局。 |
| 398 | At that point, you're just looking for signs of life. | 这时候,你只是在寻找生命的迹象. |
| 399 | But then when you're like really in this mode, as we are now, where it's like, you know, | 但当你真的喜欢 在这个模式,像我们现在, 它就像,你知道, |
| 400 | we want to be very intentional about how we're improving our model over time to build better and better, better products. | 我们想非常有意识地研究我们如何随着时间的推移改进我们的模型, 以建造更好更好的产品。 |
| 401 | Like a lot of the cases that Mark just mentioned, like these are actually detailed very rigorously | 就像马克刚才提到的许多案子一样 这些都是非常详细的 |
| 402 | in like the spreadsheet of all the little capabilities and nuances of the product that we think really, really matter to the end user. | 就像电子表格一样 包含产品中所有微小的能力和细微的细微差别 我们认为对终端用户来说都很重要 |
| 403 | Maybe each of them matters like 2% to the user. | 也许每个对用户来说都很重要 |
| 404 | But in aggregate, that's like the obsession that will ultimately result in these models that feel magical. | 但总而言之,这就像迷恋 最终会导致这些模型 感觉神奇。 |
| 405 | Can you guys describe for me just what goes into training an RL model or sorry, a leading edge frontier model? | 你们能给我描述一下 在训练RL模型时有什么用 还是抱歉 领先的前沿模型? |
| 406 | I'm just curious in that I think a lot of people listening to this have a rough idea where there's, you know, | 我只是好奇的是,我认为很多人 听这个有一个粗略的想法 在那里,你知道, |
| 407 | there's a pre-training and post-training step. | 设有训练前和训练后步骤. |
| 408 | So pre-training is you kind of ingest this huge amount of data. | 所以,预训 是一种你 摄入这个巨大的数据。 |
| 409 | You know, you look at a lot of pictures and these are cats and these are dogs. | 你看很多照片 这些是猫和狗 |
| 410 | And after a while, you start to, you know, develop a sense for what is catness and what is dogness and what is fur and, you know, everything like that. | 过了一段时间,你开始,你知道, 发展一种感觉,什么是猫,什么是狗,什么是皮毛,你知道,所有类似的东西。 |
| 411 | And so that's kind of the pre-training step where you just hoover up data and maybe you can talk about the data acquisition and just kind of what goes into that. | 所以这是训练前的一步, 在那里,你只是收集数据, 也许你可以谈论数据获取, 以及进入数据的内容。 |
| 412 | And then there is this RL stage, which is the new-ish advance over kind of the past few years of AI. | 接下来是RL阶段,这是过去数年AI的新进步. |
| 413 | And again, it sounds like that is where a lot of the specific nuance of this model has come in, | 再说一遍,这听起来就是 这个模型中很多具体细微的细微变化之处 |
| 414 | where you guys have better, have chosen better domains, better, you know, hills to climb for the model. | 在那里你们有更好的, 选择了更好的领域, 更好的,你知道的,山丘爬向模型。 |
| 415 | But just at a high level, describe how many people, how long it takes, what the steps are, how you think about those in. | 但是在高水平上, 描述一下有多少人,需要多长时间,步骤是什么, 你如何看待这些。 |
| 416 | How much time do you have? | 你有多少时间? |
| 417 | 对 我知道 Yeah, I know. | |
| 418 | At a high level. | 在高处. |
| 419 | This happens to be like what we spend all of our time on. | 这恰好就是我们所有的时间所花的 |
| 420 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 421 | And so summarize it in three minutes. | 三分钟后总结一下 |
| 422 | I can recommend some YouTube courses here. | 我可以在这里推荐一些YouTube课程. |
| 423 | Yeah, I think at a very high level, you know, these are the stages. | 是的,我认为在一个非常高的水平, 你知道,这些是阶段。 |
| 424 | It's pre-training and post-training. | 修习前修行后修行. |
| 425 | Ironically, training is the superset of all of it. | 具有讽刺意味的是,训练是所有训练的超级集. |
| 426 | But how many people are on this whole effort, like when you develop these models? | 但是,有多少人 在整个的努力, 像当你开发这些模型? |
| 427 | So this I think you're getting into, like, what is interesting about MSL and the approach that we've taken, which is, I mean, from the very beginning, I think when I first reached out to you, | 所以,我认为你正在进入,喜欢, 什么是有趣的 关于MSL和我们采取的方法, 我的意思是,从一开始,我想 当我第一次接触你, |
| 428 | I think we're just looking at this because we're like, just like, wow, how far we've come. | 我认为我们只是看这个 因为我们就像,就像,哇, 我们已经走了多远。 |
| 429 | And I was just like, I pulled up the screenshot of like when I first reached out to Alex and my first thing was like, hey, do you have time to catch up and talk? | 我就想,我拉了 截图一样 当我第一次接触亚历克斯 我的第一件事是一样, 嘿,你有时间 赶上和说话? |
| 430 | And then that's like, all right, we talked for 44 minutes or whatever. | 我们聊了44分钟什么的 |
| 431 | And then then after that call, two days later, Alex sends me this long thing, which is like, well, here's what I think I would do if I were in your if I were in your position. | 两天后,亚历克斯给我发了这么长的电话, 就像是,嗯,我想如果我是你的话,我会怎么做。 |
| 432 | And the very first thing is that you don't need a lot of people and talent density is the thing that matters. | 首先,你不需要太多的人,人才密度才是最重要的。 |
| 433 | So I'd say like from the beginning of the plan, this was like the core of your strategy, right, is basically like you actually don't need a massive number of people. | 所以我想说,从计划一开始, 这就像你战略的核心, 对,基本上就像你实际上不需要大量的人。 |
| 434 | But what you do need is for like each of the people to be as good as possible, which kind of informed this kind of crazy recruiting push and like very intense filtering that we had to take, you know, some of the best people from inside meta and a very int | 但你需要的是,像每个人尽可能的好, 什么样的信息 这种疯狂的招聘推力, 像非常激烈的过滤, 我们不得不采取,一些最好的人 从内元, 一个非常紧张的过程 从外元。 |
| 435 | But I actually think like a lot of what has made MSL special and why a lot of people have wanted to join is because I think it's in some ways it's just like more fun to work on talent and smaller. | 但我实际上认为,像很多 使MSL 特别的原因, 为什么很多人想要加入, 因为我认为在某些方面 它只是像更有趣 工作在人才和较小。 |
| 436 | I've heard it feels like the startup that's operating in some ways it has all the benefits of a startup with the stability and resources of a larger company. | 我听说,它的感觉 像启动 以某种方式运行 它拥有所有的好处 启动 在一个更大的公司的稳定和资源。 |
| 437 | And this was like this environment that I think this was like point one in your kind of plan for what Ford Alex was like, this is what we need to go do. | 这就像这种环境 我认为这是你计划中的第一点 对于福特·亚历克斯是什么样子, 这就是我们需要做的。 |
| 438 | So I don't know the answer of like how big is a pre-training team. | 所以我不知道一个训练前团队有多大的答案。 |
| 439 | You know, it doesn't need to be that big. | 没必要那么大 |
| 440 | But I think if you look at some of the other labs, it's probably quite big in some other places. | 但我想如果你看看其他的实验室, 在其他地方可能相当大。 |
| 441 | So I think part of the reason why these models are doing well is because you have people who we're betting on and they have a lot of resources because we're taking our compute. | 所以,我认为这些模型之所以能做得很好 部分原因是因为你有我们所相信的人 并且他们有很多资源 因为我们的计算。 |
| 442 | We're not like peanut buttering across a lot of competing efforts where basically just we're investing in like the key people, like a lot of a lot of compute per researcher. | 我们不喜欢花生酱 跨越很多相互竞争的努力, 基本上我们像关键的人一样投资, 像很多计算每个研究人员。 |
| 443 | And then they can they can do their work. | 然后他们可以做他们的工作。 |
| 444 | Was wonder the one big training at first like that? | 一开始是这么训练的吗? |
| 445 | That was the next pre-training. | 这是接下来的预训。 |
| 446 | It was climbing up this ladder. | 它爬上这个梯子。 |
| 447 | So, I mean, we have this tiering system and then kind of spark. | 所以,我的意思是,我们有一个分层系统, 然后是火花。 |
| 448 | I mean, internally, like avocado was the codename for the new spark line. | 就像鳄梨是新火花线的代号 |
| 449 | And then watermelon was the codename for this one. | 然后西瓜是这个的代号。 |
| 450 | And we're like out of that we're out of fruits. | 我们就像从那我们没有水果。 |
| 451 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 452 | So we're going to have to switch to a to a new convention. | 因此,我们不得不转向新的会议。 |
| 453 | But I think the only fruit that is technically larger is the durian. | 但我认为唯一技术上更大的水果是榴弹。 |
| 454 | And you don't want to go to a durian. | 而你不想去一个榴弹。 |
| 455 | No, no, you want to stay far away. | 不,不,你想远离。 |
| 456 | A durian is bigger than a watermelon. | 榴弹比西瓜大. |
| 457 | I think it's definitely heavier. | 我觉得它绝对是更重。 |
| 458 | That's horrifying. | 这太可怕了 |
| 459 | Definitely heavier. | 绝对重。 |
| 460 | Spikey. | 师曰. |
| 461 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 462 | But no. | 但是没有。 |
| 463 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 464 | I think as as Mark mentioned, like, you know, each of the I mean, each of the stages stages I'll describe, like it's tens of people working on it. | 我想正如马克提到的, 比如,你知道,每一个我的意思, 每个阶段,我会描述的, 仿佛是数十人的工作。 |
| 465 | A meta versus, you know, hundreds. | 一个元对,你知道的,数百。 |
| 466 | So meta is a huge company. | 所以meta是一个巨大的公司。 |
| 467 | This is like a really tiny effort. | 这就像一个很小的努力。 |
| 468 | It's a meta. | 谓之元. |
| 469 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 470 | The research team is less than 200 people. | 研究团队不足200人. |
| 471 | Yeah, it's very it's very small. | 是啊,这是非常小。 |
| 472 | It's intentionally very, very tight. | 这是故意的非常,非常紧。 |
| 473 | I think that the closer to 100. | 我认为,接近100。 |
| 474 | And then there's a bunch of info. | 后有众生消息. |
| 475 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 476 | And then it's it's a lot of info work. | 后是多处信息工作. |
| 477 | So I think at a very high level to go back to the to the to the what is it question. | 所以,我想在非常高的水平上 回到问题所在。 |
| 478 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 479 | Well, how does it happen? | 怎么会这样? |
| 480 | How does model happen? | 模型是怎么发生的? |
| 481 | That's basically what I'm asking. | 基本上这就是我要问的。 |
| 482 | Where do models come from? | 模特儿从哪里来? |
| 483 | You you take a huge amount of data for pre-training. | 你收集了大量的训练前数据 |
| 484 | And here you're you're here like roughly. | 在这里你在这里就像大致。 |
| 485 | It's like all the, you know, public Internet and like all the books you can get your hands on and just like as much data as possible. | 这就像所有,你知道的,公共的互联网 和所有的书籍 你可以得到你的手和 就像尽可能多的数据。 |
| 486 | But different types. | 但种类不同. |
| 487 | Plus the proprietary metadata. | 加上专有元数据. |
| 488 | But also different modalities. | 但也不同的方式。 |
| 489 | So if you want it to be good at perception, then you want to make sure it has a lot of images and audio and video and this kind of stuff. | 所以,如果你希望它能善于感知, 那么,你想要确保它有很多的图像, 音频和视频, 之类的东西。 |
| 490 | You know, if you want it to be good at certain domains, you don't just want to RL that in at the end. | 你知道,如果你想它 在一些领域是好的, 你不只是想要RL 在结尾。 |
| 491 | You want to have it have exposure to that from the beginning. | 你想让它从一开始就接触到这个 |
| 492 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 493 | So and in this stage, you're kind of you're much less you care a lot less exactly what the data looks like or how it's formatted or all of everything about it. | 所以,在这个阶段,你更不关心 确切的数据是什么样子 或者它是如何格式化的或者所有的一切。 |
| 494 | But it's but it's just lots and lots of data. | 但它只是很多很多的数据。 |
| 495 | When you talk about this being the best personal agent model, was there data you had to get for the pre-train or it's like huge amounts of restaurant reservation called book? | 当你谈论这是最好的个人代理模型, 是否有数据你必须得到的预训 或者它像大量 餐厅预订书? |
| 496 | I don't know what it is, but like kind of want to dump in large volumes of the modalities that people are going to care about. | 我不知道是什么 但就像想把人们会关心的 大量模式丢掉一样 |
| 497 | I mean, there were a bunch of things. | 我的意思是,有一堆东西。 |
| 498 | I mean, I don't actually think we talked about this when we're talking about where Muse Wonder excels. | 我的意思是,我并不认为 我们谈论这个 当我们谈论 哪里Muse Wonder的优异。 |
| 499 | But some of the areas that it's like, all right, what do people care about? | 但是,有些地方,它像, 好吧,人们关心什么? |
| 500 | Right. | 对 |
| 501 | It's I mean, there are things like shopping that people care about a lot. | 我的意思是,有的东西 像购物 人们关心很多。 |
| 502 | Personal advice that people care about a lot. | 人们关心的个人建议。 |
| 503 | People have personal legal questions, personal health questions, personal tax questions. | 人们有个人法律问题,个人健康问题,个人税务问题. |
| 504 | Muse Wonder, I mean, is like quite good. | Muse Wonder, 我的意思是,是相当不错的。 |
| 505 | I don't know if there's any quantification that we want to give. | 我不知道我们是否想要给出任何量化. |
| 506 | But it's let's say it's it's it's it's very good on those. | 不过,我们还是要说,这些东西都很好。 |
| 507 | It's good. | 不错 |
| 508 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 509 | And so those types of things, I mean, you can are are all them to some degree. | 所以,这些类型的东西,我的意思是,你可以 在所有程度上都是。 |
| 510 | But you like just want to put in a large amount of data. | 但你喜欢只是想放大量的数据。 |
| 511 | Like you can imagine health is a very there's a lot of data out there about health. | 就像你能想象的健康是一个非常 有很多关于健康的数据。 |
| 512 | And in pre-training, you just wanted to like see all these different things. | 在训练前,你只是想看看这些不同的东西。 |
| 513 | And so you kind of just put these different corporate. | 所以你就把这些不同的公司。 |
| 514 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 515 | So so so as as Mark was mentioning, like the we one of the highlights of Muse Wonder actually is its ability on domain, | 所以正如马克提到的那样 就像我们Muse Wonder的亮点之一 其实就是它在域上的能力 |
| 516 | various domain expertises. | 各种领域专门知识。 |
| 517 | And I think our philosophy here is that, you know, | 我认为我们的哲学是,你知道, |
| 518 | the best personal agent should feel like a team of experts in your corner. | 最好的私人特工应该感觉 像一个团队的专家 在你的角落。 |
| 519 | Like it should feel like it is your legal team and your finance team and your medical team and and and and and. | 感觉好像是你的法律团队 财务团队 医疗团队 还有 还有... |
| 520 | And so on a bunch of these domains, we Muse Wonder is actually state of the art on, I think, | 因此,在很多这样的领域, 我们Muse Wonder实际上是 最新技术,我认为, |
| 521 | a lot of the finance evals as well as a lot of the legal evals. | 有很多金融电子报 还有很多法律电子报 |
| 522 | It is the state of the art model. | 这是艺术模型的状态。 |
| 523 | And that these these domain areas, that starts in pre-training. | 而这些领域,从训练前开始。 |
| 524 | We look for a lot of domain data to put into pre-training. | 我们寻找很多域数据 投入到培训前。 |
| 525 | Yes. | 对 |
| 526 | But a lot of the a lot of the art of pre-training, I mean, pre-training is there's this one rune tweet where it's like pre-training is full of the researchers who like chew glass and stare out into the distance into the into the abyss or whatnot. | 但很多预训的艺术,我的意思是,预训是, 有一种Rune的微博, 它就像预训充满了研究者, 他们喜欢咀嚼玻璃, 并凝视到遥远的深渊。 |
| 527 | But but I think there's a truth to that because it is like it is both the highest stakes of the research areas because you know, | 但我认为这是事实 因为它就像它既是研究领域最高的利害关系 因为你知道 |
| 528 | 我们投入了很大比例的计算 来训练Muse Wonder 到预训Muse Wonder。 | |
| 529 | And it was very high stakes. | 赌注很高 |
| 530 | I think that's probably both of us at various points in that process. | 我认为,在这个过程中,我们可能都处于不同阶段。 |
| 531 | You went through troughs of sadness, troughs of uncertainty. | 你经历了悲伤和不确定 |
| 532 | You know, all the seven stages of grief happen while you're while you're pre-training the model. | 所有七个阶段的悲伤都发生在你训练模特的时候 |
| 533 | And it is the most sort of like fundamentally scientific in an interesting way because, you know, you just don't have very many samples. | 它是最像 本质上科学的方式 一个有趣的方式,因为,你知道, 你只是没有太多的样本。 |
| 534 | So like your ability to infer exactly what will happen scientifically really depends on your ability to sort of like, you know, big brain reason about everything that's happening this process. | 所以,就像你能够准确推断科学上会发生什么一样, 真正取决于你的能力, 比如说,关于正在发生的每一件事,大脑的大理性。 |
| 535 | OK, so in the pre-training stage, everyone who's training frontier models basically is trying to get as much data as possible for the pre-train with maybe a bent towards if you want Muse Wonder to excel as legal and finance and tax questions and things li | 好吧,所以在训练前阶段, 每一个训练前沿模型的人 基本上都在努力获得尽可能多的数据 对于训练前,也许有一个 倾向,如果你希望Muse Wonder 杰出的 法律和金融,税务问题和类似的事情, |
| 536 | then you want to have as much of that specific corpus as possible in the pre-train. | 那你就想在预训中 尽可能多地拥有这些具体的工具 |
| 537 | You still want as much intentionality about where ultimately you want your model to be. | 你仍然希望你最终想要你的模特儿在哪里 |
| 538 | But again, it just, you know, benefits from a lot more data. | 但是,它只是,你知道, 从更多的数据中获益。 |
| 539 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 540 | And this is sort of the massive data, massive compute stage. | 这是大量的数据,大量的计算阶段。 |
| 541 | Do you hit some saturation in the data you put in the pre-train or ultimately is it just more data is better? | 你在预列车中的数据中是否达到一定的饱和程度,或者归根结底只是更多的数据更好? |
| 542 | Well, there's a relationship between if you want the model to be bigger, you need more data. | 如果你想让模型变得更大, 你需要更多的数据。 |
| 543 | Otherwise it overfits. | 否则就太过份了 |
| 544 | Yes, but my point is like, is there data where it's like, oh, we can't distract the model with that. | 是的,但是我的观点是,有数据 它像,哦,我们不能分心 模型用它。 |
| 545 | We can't clutter up its brain attic with knowing that stuff or is it just more data is better? | 我们不能把大脑的阁楼 弄得一团糟 还是更多的数据更好? |
| 546 | There is some. | 有的还有的 |
| 547 | There are some of these effects, I think. | 有一些这些效果,我想。 |
| 548 | This is part of the science. | 这是科学的一部分。 |
| 549 | We're going to secret sauce. | 我们要去秘密酱汁。 |
| 550 | No, it's not about it. | 不,这不是它。 |
| 551 | Just like, I mean, like, I think that there are all these questions about like, OK, well, we put a lot of these tokens in. | 就像,我意思是,我想, 有很多这样的问题 比如,好吧,好吧,我们放了很多这些符号。 |
| 552 | Is there any zero-sum-ness and a bunch of places there isn't or it's actually positive transfer? | 有没有零和和 和一堆地方没有, 或者它实际上是正转移? |
| 553 | But then, like, depending on how it's set up, like, you can have some negative transfer. | 但是,像,取决于它是如何设置的, 像,你可以有一些负转移。 |
| 554 | And so, I don't know, there are all these interesting questions. | 所以,我不知道, 有很多有趣的问题。 |
| 555 | But in general, one of the bigger challenges of scaling bigger models is it's not just about how many flops and how much compute. | 但一般而言, 缩小更大的模型的更大挑战之一 不仅仅是 有多少软体和多少计算。 |
| 556 | You want to be able to scale data with that. | 你想用它来缩放数据。 |
| 557 | I mean, this is like part of what when the original kind of scaling laws for pre-training were written. | 我的意思是,这就像当 原始类型的缩放法 对于训练前。 |
| 558 | I mean, this is sort of what came out of that is that. | 我的意思是,这是 某种程度上,从这个结果是。 |
| 559 | So if the Internet isn't growing that quickly and you want to scale bigger models that can be more intelligent, | 所以如果互联网没那么快发展起来 并且你想放大更大的模型 可以更聪明, |
| 560 | I think one of the interesting problems is, all right, where's the where's the data coming from? | 我认为一个有趣的问题是, 好吧, 数据从哪里来? |
| 561 | Yes. | 对 |
| 562 | So that probably gets to the end of what we're going to talk about on that. | 所以,这也许 到了我们将要谈论的结尾。 |
| 563 | But we can go to the other. | 但我们可以去另一个 |
| 564 | Excellent CEO energy over here. | 这里有很好的CEO能量 |
| 565 | So post-training. | 故后训. |
| 566 | So then I think post-training is kind of is a very exciting field now, I think, | 所以我认为 后训练是一种 非常令人兴奋的领域 现在,我认为, |
| 567 | and is an area where I think actually I think almost on a continual basis, | 我认为我几乎可以持续地思考 |
| 568 | the entire field is learning about the optimal recipes to be able to post-train these models. | 整个领域都在学习 最佳的食谱 才能完成这些模型的训练 |
| 569 | And again, for people like post-training is where you give the model task that you expect to do greatest on how it does. | 再说一遍,对于像后训练这样的人来说, 就是你给模式任务的地方, 你期望它做得最好。 |
| 570 | And so if it's chess playing model, it plays chess games, learns that, you know, | 所以,如果它是象棋游戏模式, 它玩象棋游戏, 学习,你知道, |
| 571 | actually two stages. | 实际上是两个阶段。 |
| 572 | 这是SFT。 | |
| 573 | So there's supervised learning. | 所以有监督学习。 |
| 574 | So that's like a lot of when you take this kind of raw thing and you give it both the question and the answer you would want it to have. | 所以,这就像很多 当你拿这种生的东西, 你给它的问题和答案 你希望它有。 |
| 575 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 576 | If you're having a chat conversation, how you want it to respond in this case. | 如果你正在聊天,你希望它如何回应本案. |
| 577 | So when you're training things like personality, the SFT is actually like a very important part for molding it. | 所以当你在训练像个性一样的东西时, SFT实际上就像一个非常重要的角色来塑造它. |
| 578 | But then I think most of the advances in the recent years have been in RL. | 但是,我认为近年来的大部分进展都是在RL. |
| 579 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 580 | Yes. | 对 |
| 581 | So I think I think one mental model that can be helpful is like in SFT is where you kind of initialize a lot of these supervised fine-tuning supervised fine-tuning. | 所以我认为一个精神模型是有用的, 就像在SFT中,你在那里初始化了很多 这些有监督的微调,有监督的微调。 |
| 582 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 583 | Where you initialize a lot of the behaviors that you want the model to be able to exhibit later on. | 在那里,你初始化了很多行为, 你想让模型 能够展示以后。 |
| 584 | And then, you know, maybe at the end of SFT, it has those behaviors kind of baked in, but it'll only do it like 10 percent of the time. | 然后,你知道,也许 在SFT的结尾, 它有 那种行为烘焙, 但是它只会做 像10%的时间。 |
| 585 | And then in reinforcement learning, you really sort of give the give the model reinforcement in various situations to bring the elicitation of those behaviors dramatically up. | 然后在强化学习中,你确实在各种情况下给予模型强化, 使这些行为的引领大增。 |
| 586 | And I think that the yes. | 我认为是的。 |
| 587 | So I think there's a bunch of interesting things in that that are happening in RL and and post-training. | 所以,我认为有很多有趣的事情 正在发生 在RL和后训练。 |
| 588 | I think one is that this just the scaling of RL and post-training has been has been one of the clear axes, just spending more compute and gathering more data. | 我认为其中之一, 仅仅是RL的缩放 和训练后 一直是明确的轴心之一, 只是花费更多的计算 和收集更多的数据。 |
| 589 | Just doing much more of it before you release a model. | 在你释放模特儿之前 做更多 |
| 590 | Yes. | 对 |
| 591 | Doing much more of it, especially as the pre-trained scale up, doing much more. | 做更多的事情,特别是随着预先训练的扩大,做更多的事情。 |
| 592 | It's like anything in scaling laws, like it has to go with the rest of the factors or it doesn't work. | 它就像任何在缩放定律, 像它必须去 其余的因素或者它不起作用。 |
| 593 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 594 | In general, I mean, if I were to say like one broad statement about AIs, just scale everything. | 一般来说,我的意思是,如果我说得像一个关于AI的泛泛的言论,只是把一切放大. |
| 595 | But in particular, you have to scale everything. | 但特别的,你必须 放大一切。 |
| 596 | Like scaling one thing in isolation does not work. | 就像孤立地缩小一个东西是行不通的。 |
| 597 | You technically can. | 技术上可以 |
| 598 | You can scale one dimension. | 你可以放大一个维度。 |
| 599 | You just will get much more optimal performance if you scale many things all together. | 你只要把很多事情结合起来 就能得到更好的表现 |
| 600 | Well, I mean, so one way to think about like Muse Wonder, right? | 嗯,我的意思是,所以一个方法 想像Muse Wonder,对不对? |
| 601 | It's like, all right, so we did the pre-trained. | 这就像,所有的权利, 所以我们做了预训。 |
| 602 | We've done some RL. | 我们做了一些RL。 |
| 603 | Right. | 对 |
| 604 | 当你看着它像Muse Spark,对不对? | |
| 605 | So version one to one point one, one point two, one point three. | 所以版本1到1点,1点2,1点3. |
| 606 | We didn't change anything about pre-training, right? | 我们没有改变任何 关于预训,对不对? |
| 607 | We just continued doing more RL on top of it. | 我们只是继续做更多的RL在上面。 |
| 608 | So so you when you think about the early versions of a model of a new class, they're actually relatively less like the RL to pre-training ratio. | 所以当你想到一个新班级的模型的早期版本时, 它们实际上比起RL到预训练的比例要少。 |
| 609 | The ratio is going to be lower for RL than the later versions. | 相对于后来的版本,RL的比例将会更低. |
| 610 | That is kind of what the point releases in models are. | 这就是模型中的点释放。 |
| 611 | Well, I think every company has its own convention. | 我想每个公司都有自己的会议 |
| 612 | For us, that's what it is meant. | 对我们来说,这就是它的意思。 |
| 613 | But for a lot of companies, like the big number is the pre-train and then the. | 但对于很多公司来说,像大数字是预训,然后是. |
| 614 | I think it kind of lost that semantic value. | 我认为它有点失去了语义价值。 |
| 615 | Yeah, I think now you actually. | 是啊,我觉得现在你实际上。 |
| 616 | OK, but it is true at Meta, at least. | 好吧,但这是真实的 在梅塔,至少。 |
| 617 | We haven't even done it. | 我们甚至没有做到这一点。 |
| 618 | We kind of decided. | 我们决定了 |
| 619 | It's true. | 这是真的。 |
| 620 | It is true. | 这是真的。 |
| 621 | 确实,Muse Spark和Muse Wonder是预先训练的。 | |
| 622 | And we decided to kick the can down the road on this question for Muse Wonder by not giving it a number yet. | 我们决定把这问题踢下去 给Muse Wonder 通过不给它一个号码。 |
| 623 | But when we have our first dot release, we will have to decide. | 但是,当我们有 我们的第一个点释放, 我们必须决定。 |
| 624 | I think the RL stage, you know, part of what has been, you know, part of what's very interesting is first is just producing the environments and producing the tasks. | 我认为RL阶段,你知道的, 一部分是,你知道的, 一部分是非常有趣的, 首先,只是生产环境 和生产任务。 |
| 625 | And I think that is one of the areas where there's a lot of intentionality in training these models. | 我认为,在培训这些模型时, 有很多有意的行为。 |
| 626 | It's also one of the areas where, you know, you notice very funny things like if you, you know, in a lot of cases, less is actually more when it comes to data in RL. | 这也是其中的一个领域,你知道,你注意到非常有趣的事情, 比如,如果你,你知道,在很多情况下, 更少的其实是更多的,当涉及到RL的数据。 |
| 627 | And so I think I think the sort of like the the feel and the science of it like is pretty flipped, generally speaking, from from pre-training. | 所以我觉得这种感觉和科学 通常都是从训练前开始的。 |
| 628 | The other is that I think it can give very magnified kind of instruction to the model, if that makes sense. | 另一个是,我认为它可以给模型 一种非常放大的指令,如果这有道理的话。 |
| 629 | So I think that like a lot of safety cases or alignment cases that we care a lot about are like, you know, and, you know, where you would see when you do large high compute RL runs on frontier models are where you apply a lot of RL or optimization pressur | 所以,我认为,像很多安全案例或者我们非常关心的对齐案例一样, 就像,你知道,你知道,当你在前沿模型上做大高计算RL运行时, 你会看到, 当你应用很多RL或者优化压力的时候, 在模型成功的唯一方法就是做一些错误的对齐或者做一些不安全的事情。 |
| 630 | And so that's another thing that we had to be very careful about and thoughtful about in training these wonders, ensuring that we curated the RL environments very thoughtfully to ensure that all of them were eliciting and driving towards more aligned beha | 这是我们在训练这些奇观时必须非常小心和深思熟虑的另外一件事, 确保我们非常周密地研究RL环境, 以确保它们都能从模型中引领到更一致的行为。 |
| 631 | So the point that you're saying about quality, I think is an important one, because I think a lot of the previous questions back and forth were about the quantity and have the flavor of like, oh, you need to scale the quantity. | 所以,你所说的质量问题,我认为是一个重要的问题, 因为我认为以前很多问题都是关于数量的问题, 并且有类似,哦,你需要扩大数量。 |
| 632 | But I mean, I do think like a huge part of this is just is is the point that you just made of like the even a smaller amount of high quality. | 但我想,我确实认为这其中的很大一部分 只是你刚刚做的点 就像更小的高质量。 |
| 633 | Yeah, I think I think in RL like we, you know, as we've seen pretty big jumps in our new spark line, I think these have been like accompanied with, you know, real meaningful improvements to the underlying recipe. | 是的,我想在RL中,就像我们,你知道, 当我们看到在新的火花线上, 跳得相当大, 我认为这些就像,你知道, |
| 634 | And each of these improvements in the recipe have been like, you know, I think the improvement between new spark one to me spark one point three feels night and day. | 食谱中的每一个改进 都像,你知道,我认为, 新的火花的改善 对我来说,火花的点三 日夜的感觉。 |
| 635 | I think probably to most people, if you ask them, like, are these like, you know, do these feel like they came from different pretrains? | 我想对大多数人来说,如果你问他们, 喜欢,这些,你知道, 这些感觉像他们来自不同的前幕? |
| 636 | I think they probably would say yes, because I think you can, you know, I think it's happening industry wide for what it's worth. | 我认为他们可能答应了, 因为我认为你可以,你知道, 我认为它正在发生 整个行业的价值。 |
| 637 | Just like we are learning to squeeze so much capability and so much and elicit so much agenda capability from, you know, these existing base models. | 就像我们学着挤压如此多的能力 并吸引如此多的议程能力 从,你知道,这些现有的基础模型。 |
| 638 | Now, that's not to say like we believe scaling is very important. | 这并不是说我们相信 缩放非常重要 |
| 639 | That's why we have to use Wonderland in the first place. | 故先须用仙境. |
| 640 | But but, you know, this sort of like these two things are happening at the same time, which is also, by the way, for for us, this is why we're seeing so much progress in general. | 但是,你知道,这种事情是同时发生的, 顺便说一句,对于我们来说,这就是为什么我们总的看到这么多进步。 |
| 641 | Like, I think it's the fact that we're scaling both pre-training and scaling our recipes in RL kind of like concurrently in a nice club. | 喜欢,我想这是事实,我们正在扩大 预训 和放大我们的食谱 在RL 类似同时在一个好俱乐部。 |
| 642 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 643 | And then there's these other scaling axes, too. | 还有其他的缩放轴 |
| 644 | I mean, like making sure that you're the agent harness is good and that you can co-optimize these things is probably just another aspect of our dimension for scaling. | 我的意思是,像确保你是 代理的拉带是好的 并且你可以合作优化这些东西 可能只是另一个方面 我们的维度 放大。 |
| 645 | But if I'm understanding you guys correctly, are you saying that alignment is not about coming up with some alignment specific RL steps? | 但是,如果我理解你们正确, 你是说对齐 并不是要提出一些对齐 特定的RL步骤? |
| 646 | And instead about making sure the entire RL process is kind of steering the model. | 而不是确保整个RL过程 是一种引导模型。 |
| 647 | You have to be thoughtful about it in the entire process. | 整个过程你都要仔细考虑 |
| 648 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 649 | So I think this is a it's a it's a holistic effort, I think. | 我认为这是一个整体性的努力。 |
| 650 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 651 | But also, I think different labs have very different theories. | 但是,我认为不同的实验室有非常不同的理论。 |
| 652 | I mean, alignment is a very philosophical concept of like, who do you want it to be aligned to? | 我的意思是,对齐是一个非常哲学的概念 像,你想要它与谁对齐? |
| 653 | And a lot of our theory is like, OK, we care more about it being aligned to what we're trying to give people agents. | 我们的理论大多是这样的, 好吧,我们更关心的是 它与我们试图给人们的代理。 |
| 654 | Right. | 对 |
| 655 | And it needs to if you ask it to do something, you need to have a high confidence that it's going to do what you ask it to do. | 并且它需要如果你要求它做一些事情,你需要有一个高度的信心,它会做你要求它做的事. |
| 656 | Yes. | 对 |
| 657 | You know, like you wanted to do that with high reliability. | 你知道,就像你想这样做 有很高的可靠性。 |
| 658 | You don't want a moralizing lecture for why you're wrong for asking it to do the thing. | 你不希望一个道德化的演讲,因为你为什么错误地要求它做这件事. |
| 659 | Obviously, if you're trying to do something that's catastrophic, it needs to gracefully without pissing you off. | 很明显,如果你想做一些灾难性的事, 它需要优雅而不会惹恼你。 |
| 660 | Right. | 对 |
| 661 | Like not do it. | 喜欢不这样做。 |
| 662 | But in general, we view alignment as more of a question of an instruction and values alignment with the person who it's intending to serve. | 但总的来说,我们认为 校正更是一个问题 一个指示和价值 校正与它打算服务的人。 |
| 663 | And I think that's that's kind of a different mode of thinking about it. | 我想这是一种不同的思考方式。 |
| 664 | It's very different from, I think, how some of the others do. | 这和,我想, 与一些其他人做的非常不同。 |
| 665 | But one of the more interesting things, I think, that is maybe a question related to your original question is also just how long the process of training one of these models takes. | 但其中一件更有趣的事情,我想, 也许是一个与你最初的问题有关的问题, 就是训练其中一个模型的过程需要多长时间。 |
| 666 | 像Muse Wonder,我的意思是,总的来说, 就像我们计划Muse Wonder 从上次,你知道,August。 | |
| 667 | So, yeah, I really the offside when we were. | 所以,是的,我真的很离谱 当我们是。 |
| 668 | So this is like when they first presented this. | 这就像他们第一次提出这个。 |
| 669 | So I think all of the stages that we just talked about are like, you know, you really work on them for quite a long time. | 所以,我认为所有我们刚刚谈论的阶段 都像,你知道, 你真的工作了相当长的时间。 |
| 670 | 并不是说当我们完成Muse Spark后 我们没有开始研究Muse Wonder。 | |
| 671 | It's that we've actually just been planning and working on this for quite a long time. | 这是因为,我们实际上 一直在计划 和工作 这一点相当长的时间。 |
| 672 | And we really view this spark, if anything, is like I think we mentioned this in the first blog post where we wrote about it. | 我们真的看到这个火花,如果有的话, 就像我想我们在第一个博客文章中提到了这一点。 |
| 673 | 那是通往Muse Wonder的阶梯 | |
| 674 | And that really was how we thought even at the time you thought about it. | 即使在你考虑的时候我们也这么想。 |
| 675 | And in terms of how long it takes, I mean, we're also even just talking about the research part. | 至于需要多长时间, 我的意思是,我们也在谈论研究的部分。 |
| 676 | I mean, there's also the compute part where we've been investing in building up, first of all, a huge amount of compute overall. | 我的意思是,还有计算部分 我们一直在投资建设, 首先, 大量的计算总体。 |
| 677 | But a lot of part of our philosophy on this is that you can kind of measure the compute strength of a lab by how big its largest single computer is. | 但我们关于这个的哲学 有很多部分是 你可以用一个实验室最大的计算机 来测量它的计算强度。 |
| 678 | Supercomputer for being able to do these these large training runs. | 超级计算机能够完成这些大型训练 |
| 679 | So, I mean, we built this Prometheus cluster. | 所以,我的意思是,我们建立了这个普罗米修斯集群。 |
| 680 | We call it in Ohio that's scaling to larger than a gigawatt. | 在俄亥俄州,我们称之为规模大于千兆瓦。 |
| 681 | And now we're building this Hyperion cluster in Louisiana that's going to scale to five gigawatts. | 现在我们正在路易斯安那州建造一个超离子星团, 规模将达到5千兆瓦。 |
| 682 | And those actually predate MSL because like building a whole like data center site from scratch, at least the plans for those, they're coming online now. | 而那些实际上比MSL早, 因为像从零开始建立一个像数据中心站点一样的整体, 至少这些站点的计划, 他们现在上线了。 |
| 683 | But that was you guys thought it might be the feed, right, that you just have used for a lot of compute generally. | 但你们觉得可能是饲料, 对,你们只是用了很多计算法。 |
| 684 | No, no, no. | 不,不,没有。 |
| 685 | This is this is kind of predating even going back to the to kind of the llama program. | 这是种预兆 甚至回到某种 拉玛程序。 |
| 686 | I mean, it was probably in 2023 or either 2023, 2024 was when we basically started making the plans to build those clusters. | 我的意思是,大概是在2023年,或者2023年,2024年 我们基本上开始计划建造这些集群。 |
| 687 | They're now kind of fully coming online. | 他们现在已经完全上线了。 |
| 688 | Well, I guess the Louisiana one will come online over over a couple of years. | 我猜路易斯安那州那家 过几年就会上线了 |
| 689 | But but if you want to go really end to end on undoing this stuff, then I mean, obviously the the kind of full stock and I mean, met as a full stack tech company. | 但是,如果你真的想结束 关闭这些东西, 然后,我的意思是,很明显的, 那种完整的股票,我的意思是, 遇见一个完整的堆 技术公司。 |
| 690 | I mean, we build we build our own data centers. | 我的意思是,我们建造了我们自己的数据中心。 |
| 691 | We build our own chips. | 我们自己造芯片 |
| 692 | We build our own low level infrastructure. | 我们建设自己的低水平基础设施。 |
| 693 | And now this is kind of the next component, which I mean, arguably is probably the most important component in all of this for the next wave of technology is is kind of building really good models and then delivering them to people. | 现在,这是下一个组成部分, 我的意思是,可以说, 可能是所有这一切中最重要的组成部分, 因为下一波技术 是一种建立真正好的模型, 然后把它们交给人们。 |
| 694 | But I mean, yeah, if you want to go like fully end to end, I mean, this is a yes, it's a yeah. | 但是,我的意思是,是的, 如果你想去 像完全结束到结束, 我的意思是,这是肯定的,这是对的。 |
| 695 | Yeah, I do want process. | 是的,我确实想要过程。 |
| 696 | I do think this is like a I mean, maybe it's well appreciated by folks in the tech industry, but like it really is, you know, it feels like models are coming out constantly. | 我觉得这就像一个我的意思,也许它 受到科技行业的人的好评, 但就像它真的,你知道, 它感觉模型 不断涌现出来。 |
| 697 | So maybe you'd have the mental model that like, oh, a company like launches a model and then they figure out how they're going to make the next model and or something like that. | 所以,也许你会有一个精神模型, 比如,哦,一个公司像发射一个模型, 然后他们想出他们要怎么做 下一个模型,或者类似的东西。 |
| 698 | But it's actually these like very long planning processes and these sort of like very long work streams that kind of all come together at the very end and then results in these beautiful models. | 但实际上,这些就像很长的规划过程, 和这些很长的工作流, 这些都集中在最后,然后形成这些美丽的模型。 |
| 699 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 700 | How do you build good products when the feedback cycle is so long, like ultimately you start planning the model in August and you don't know until more than a year later if it's good. | 如何在反馈周期如此长的时候构建好产品,比如最终在8月开始计划模型,直到一年多后才知道是否良好. |
| 701 | And you know, Silicon Valley famously likes to run on metrics. | 你知道,硅谷 著名的喜欢运行的度量衡。 |
| 702 | But like ultimately, do you just need someone who is the estate and so it's nice when you have metrics. | 但归根结底,你需要一个人 谁是庄园, 所以当你有衡量标准,这是很好的。 |
| 703 | But I think the like state of being an entrepreneur is like, how well do you make decisions in an information poor environment? | 但我认为当企业家的状态就像, 在信息不良的环境下,你做决定有多好? |
| 704 | Right. | 对 |
| 705 | So but there's like that on steroids, right? | 但是类固醇上也有类似的东西,对吧? |
| 706 | Mega steroids. | 巨型类固醇 |
| 707 | Yeah, I think that this is and I think Mark gets a huge amount of credit for this. | 是的,我想这是 而且我觉得马克得到 巨大的信用这一点。 |
| 708 | Like the because of how long everything takes, like there there were many points along over the past year since I've been here, but also, you know, as you mentioned, like long before that, where you have to make very large investments or make very big dec | 比如说,因为一切都需要多长时间, 比如说,自从我到这儿以来,过去一年里, 有很多问题,但是,你知道,正如你提到的, 很久以前,你必须做出非常大的投资, 或做出非常大的决定, 你知道,你打算如何投资或开发技术, 或者,你知道,你将要做出什么决定 远没有证据, 你知道,你是否甚至事情正在起作用。 |
| 709 | And so I think this is this is like, you know, in some sense, like entrepreneurship on hard mode, it's like the opposite of lean startup. | 所以我觉得这就像,从某种意义上说, 像在硬模式下的创业, 和精益启动相反。 |
| 710 | Like lean startup is like, yeah, you like, see if you get something working and then you double down and then you see if that works and you double down. | 就像精益求精的启动就像,是的,你喜欢, 看看如果你得到的东西工作, 然后,你加倍下来, 然后,你看 如果工作,你加倍下来。 |
| 711 | Like you cannot do that in AI. | 就像你在人工智能里不能这么做 |
| 712 | You have to like weave. | 你必须喜欢编织。 |
| 713 | I mean, we've been investing into these data centers since, you know, for years and years and years. | 我的意思是,我们一直在投资 这些数据中心 从,你知道, 多年来和几年。 |
| 714 | We've had to and you'll be radically behind if you wish to see things are working. | 我们不得不这样做,如果你希望看到事情正常的话, 你会被彻底的落后。 |
| 715 | We have these conversations where it's like the end of last year. | 我们有这些对话,就像去年的年底。 |
| 716 | We're like, all right, we are quite excited about the progress. | 我们喜欢,所有的权利, 我们非常兴奋的进展。 |
| 717 | We haven't seen the models yet. | 我们还没有看到模型。 |
| 718 | Like, it's like, I'm going to like, you know, we're going to write this check for like, I don't know, like a hundred billion dollars or two hundred billion dollars. | 就像,我要,你知道, 我们要写这张支票 像,我不知道,像千亿或两千亿。 |
| 719 | I'm like, Alex, you sure this is going to work? | 我很喜欢,亚历克斯, 你确定这会工作? |
| 720 | It was it was so extreme that, you know, we had we had like the whole exec team. | 这是如此极端,你知道, 我们有我们像整个执行团队。 |
| 721 | Yeah, well, yeah, no. | 是啊,是啊,没有。 |
| 722 | Well, it's like the the joke every time we talked about would just be like, yeah, and we hope it's all going to work and be good. | 就像我们每次谈论这个笑话 都会觉得,是的,我们希望一切都会好起来 |
| 723 | But like there were literally like the end of last year, other than me giving a vibe report or like research was going and, you know, I could sort of show some plots and whatnot. | 但是,就像去年的年底, 除了我做一个感官报告,或者说研究正在进行, 我可以展示一些情节和什么的。 |
| 724 | But it was it was like I was like, I mean, I was feeling good about it, but it was like certainly not clear at all that it was going to work. | 但它就像我一样,我的意思是,我感觉很好, 但是,它当然不是很清楚 它会成功。 |
| 725 | You guys are saying that the essence of training a frontier model is you have to push your chips all in before you've been dealt the cards. | 你们说训练边疆模特的本质 就是在牌被处理之前 把芯片都推进去 |
| 726 | You know, you just have to decide that you're going to develop a frontier model and you don't get a meter. | 你知道,你只需要决定 你要开发一个前沿模型 而你没有得到一个表。 |
| 727 | At this scale. | 依此规模. |
| 728 | I mean, if we like back a few years ago, the clusters didn't have to be this big, but now they do. | 我的意思是,如果我们喜欢回到几年前, 集群不必这么大, 但现在他们做到了。 |
| 729 | So I think this is part of the the excitement of like booting up a frontier lab now, right? | 所以,我认为这是兴奋的一部分 像启动前沿实验室 现在,对不对? |
| 730 | Is is basically like the ante is is extremely high. | 因为它基本上就像 ante是极其高。 |
| 731 | And I think this is and like I kind of like viscerally remember this. | 我觉得这就像我有点喜欢 直觉地记得这个。 |
| 732 | We were in Hawaii at the end of last year is kind of like the whole exec team got together. | 去年年底我们去了夏威夷 就像整个执行团队在一起一样 |
| 733 | And and yes, Susan pulled me aside many times. | 是的,苏珊多次把我拉到一边 |
| 734 | It was like, you know, I just want to tell you if this doesn't work, like, you know, this is going to be really, really bad. | 这就像,你知道, 我只是想告诉你 如果这不工作, 像,你知道,这将会是 真的,真的很糟糕。 |
| 735 | It's going to be very, very bad in financial terms. | 从财政角度来说,这将会非常非常糟糕。 |
| 736 | I really need to impress on you that this model has to work like it has to be good. | 我真的需要给你留下深刻的印象 这个模型必须像它必须好。 |
| 737 | If it's good, it's all good. | 如是诸善. |
| 738 | We're great. | 我们很好。 |
| 739 | But but if it's bad, it's really, really, really bad. | 但是,如果它是坏的, 它真的,真的,真的。 |
| 740 | And Susan, who you know, that was useful motivation. | 苏珊,你知道, 这是有用的动机。 |
| 741 | It was well, it was like it was one of these very funny moments where I was like, you know, obviously the amounts of money are like so like obscenely large. | 感觉好极了,这就像一个非常有趣的时刻, 我当时喜欢,你知道, 很明显,钱的金额 就像是如此下流的庞大。 |
| 742 | What about the amounts of money in training or whatever you can share? | 训练中的钱或者任何你能分享的东西呢? |
| 743 | But just like, well, you can do the basic math. | 但就像,嗯,你可以做基本的数学。 |
| 744 | I mean, a gigawatt cluster. | 我的意思是,一个千兆瓦集群。 |
| 745 | I mean, it's like, I don't know. | 我的意思是,这就像,我不知道。 |
| 746 | I think what you'd see out there would be, you know, to operate a gigawatt a year, call it on the order of 15 billion dollars. | 我想你会看到,你知道, 每年操作一千兆瓦, 把它叫做150亿美元。 |
| 747 | OK, so it's roughly a 15 billion dollar effort to train to operate to operate a gigawatt cluster for a year. | 大约是150亿美元的努力, 用来训练操作一个千兆瓦集群一年。 |
| 748 | If you're talking about building the CapEx, it's probably closer to, you know, you pay for it up front. | 如果你在谈论建造CapEx, 它可能更接近,你知道,你支付它前面。 |
| 749 | So it's probably, you know, 50 or 60 billion dollars. | 所以大概是500或600亿美元。 |
| 750 | So but then that's just kind of one cluster for one part of training. | 所以,但这只是一个集群 的一部分培训。 |
| 751 | Then you have all the other parts. | 你还有其他的 |
| 752 | Research isn't just doing the run. | 研究并不只是在运行。 |
| 753 | Right. | 对 |
| 754 | It's like that's like probably an equal amount of it is because for each change that you make, | 可能是因为你所做的每一件改变 |
| 755 | you're testing all the ladders all the way up to the big the big scale. | 你正在测试所有的阶梯 一路到大尺度。 |
| 756 | And then they're serving the stuff. | 然后,他们正在服务的东西。 |
| 757 | So part of the stuff that in some ways of billions of dollars to train a frontier model. | 因此,一部分的东西,在某些方面 数十亿美元来训练一个前沿模型。 |
| 758 | Yeah, definitely the whole I've seen the financial world tens of billions of dollars is a good estimate for. | 是啊,我所看到的金融界 上百亿美元是一个很好的估计。 |
| 759 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 760 | And then but then but then you want to do something with it. | 然后,但后来,但之后 你想做一些事情。 |
| 761 | Right. | 对 |
| 762 | So I actually think like some of the more complicated questions that we had were like, all right. | 所以,我实际上认为,像一些 更复杂的问题, 我们曾经喜欢,好吧。 |
| 763 | So we're training this model and we know we know we want to train the model because this is like key. | 所以我们在训练这个模型 我们知道我们想训练这个模型 因为这个模型就像关键 |
| 764 | But like how much product demand do we think we're going to have? | 但是,像多少产品需求 我们认为我们将有吗? |
| 765 | So now it's like, all right, well, the product doesn't exist. | 所以现在它就像, 好了,嗯,产品不存在。 |
| 766 | Like and as you're trying to build data centers to serve muse for a product that doesn't exist. | 就像和当你试图建立数据中心 服务缪斯 对于一个不存在的产品。 |
| 767 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 768 | And we have to make in years in advance. | 我们必须提前几年才能完成 |
| 769 | Right. | 对 |
| 770 | So this is probably where like when we were talking about it last year was like, huh. | 所以这大概就是去年我们讨论的时候的样子了 |
| 771 | There was a moment where I think a bunch of people were like, yeah, | 有一瞬间,我想 一群人喜欢,是的, |
| 772 | maybe maybe we should just like be a little more conservative. | 也许我们该更保守一点 |
| 773 | And it's like, no, we're doing this. | 而它就像,不, 我们正在这样做。 |
| 774 | It's like it's like we're going to make it work. | 如来如是成就. |
| 775 | This is going to work. | 这会成功。 |
| 776 | And but it was it was like, I mean, even I mean, I, too, am an entrepreneur and founder and have, you know, | 但它就像,我的意思, 即使我是,我也是一个企业家和创始人,并且,你知道, |
| 777 | at various points in life taken risk. | 在生命的不同阶段 冒险。 |
| 778 | I remember the visceral feeling at the time was like, this is a fuck ton of risk. | 我记得当时的内脏感觉 就像,这是他妈的一吨风险。 |
| 779 | Like, I I don't know if I know it's only risky. | 喜欢,我不知道,如果我知道 它只是风险。 |
| 780 | Well, I do think this is like one of one of the like things that I think Mark is very impressive about you, | 嗯,我确实认为这是 类似的事情之一 我认为马克是非常令人印象深刻的你, |
| 781 | which is I think you have really internalized this concept of, you know, | 我认为你已经把这个概念,你知道, |
| 782 | it's about how big it is when you win, not like, you know, failure is OK. | 关键是当你赢了它有多大, 而不是,你知道,失败是好的。 |
| 783 | It's just like how big how big is the win when you when you do win. | 就像你赢的时候赢多少 |
| 784 | And this was I think Mark has fully internalized power laws in a way that many people I think quite deeply. | 我认为马克已经把权力法 完全内部化了, 和许多人一样,我深思熟虑。 |
| 785 | Well, I think the other pieces, I don't actually think it's quite as risky as this. | 我认为其他的片段, 其实我并不认为它很冒险。 |
| 786 | I mean, the numbers are big. | 我的意思是,数字很大。 |
| 787 | But I think META has a backstop in terms of how it can use confused. | 但我认为META在如何使用混淆方面有后盾. |
| 788 | Yes, I think there's two things. | 是的,我想有两件事 |
| 789 | One is if AI works overall, plenty of other people want all our compute. | 一个是如果人工智能能全面工作 很多人想要我们的计算 |
| 790 | Right. | 对 |
| 791 | So they're willing to pay like, yes. | 所以,他们愿意支付 像,是的。 |
| 792 | I mean, if if like the cost is whatever, 15 billion a gigawatt, we could get a lot more for that. | 我的意思是,如果像成本是什么, 150亿千兆瓦, 我们可以得到更多的为此。 |
| 793 | So so I think that you in order for it not to work out, it's not just that we have to fail. | 所以我觉得你为了不成功 不只是我们得失败 |
| 794 | AI overall has to fail. | 总的来说,大赦国际必须失败。 |
| 795 | Yes. | 对 |
| 796 | And then even in that happens, we still have all these other uses to productively use compute. | 即使在这样的情况下,我们仍有其他的用途 用于生产。 |
| 797 | So in the grand scheme of things, we were definitely building out this compute for inference ahead of knowing that the product was going to be ready. | 因此,在大计划里,我们肯定在计算这个推论之前, 已经知道产品已经准备好了。 |
| 798 | But your AI pulled enough that you said, and like you use online and powered will be useful to someone. | 但你的人工智能拉得够多了 就像你在网上用电一样 对某人有用 |
| 799 | But also like we believed in what we were building. | 但就像我们相信我们建造的东西一样。 |
| 800 | I mean, it's like I think and you can look at the kind of the trajectory where it's like, all right. | 我的意思是,这就像我想, 你可以看那种 轨迹,它像,好吧。 |
| 801 | First, there's chat. | 首先,有聊天。 |
| 802 | GPT is the text based assistant. | GPT是基于文本的助手. |
| 803 | Then, you know, Anthropic got coding agents to work and no one had built the kind of personal consumer version of that. | 然后,你知道,Anthropic得到了编码代理 工作,没有人 制造这种个人消费版本。 |
| 804 | And it just seemed like this is the thing that META should build in the world. | 这似乎是META在世界上应该建造的东西。 |
| 805 | And I think that that was just like pretty clear to you and me and not like from the beginning. | 我认为这对你我来说是相当清楚的,而不是从一开始。 |
| 806 | Right. | 对 |
| 807 | That that's like that's kind of what we're here to do. | 这就是我们在这里要做的 |
| 808 | And so I don't know. | 故不识. |
| 809 | I mean, there's always like the real question for me on the Muse launch even was you never know when you launch something, how it's going to be received. | 我的意思是,总是有像 真正的问题对我来说 在Muse的发射 甚至你永远不知道 当你发射的东西, 如何会得到它。 |
| 810 | Right. | 对 |
| 811 | So there's always the case where you get a homerun, which in this case it was. | 所以总有你得到一个全垒打的情况, 在这个例子中它是。 |
| 812 | And it's just like extremely well received right off the bat. | 它就像极好 得到的球棒。 |
| 813 | But the normal case would be you kind of it's fine. | 但正常的情况是,你还是可以的 |
| 814 | And you have to like iterate a few times to get product market fit before you really grow. | 在你真正成长之前,你必须喜欢过几次脚踏实地才能让产品市场适应。 |
| 815 | In some ways like I actually think the product we maybe could have even grown it faster, but we didn't have all the growth stuff really ready to go when we shipped it because we are like our median expectation was like, all right, we're gonna have to like | 在某些方面,我觉得我们甚至可以更快地发展它, 但是当我们发货时,我们并没有真正准备好所有生长的东西, 因为我们就像我们的中位期望一样, 好吧,我们得喜欢一下这个。 |
| 816 | And like, that'll be that'll be fine. | 就像,那会是罚款。 |
| 817 | Don't know. | 不识. |
| 818 | I think like if it takes a few iterations, it's like not the end of the world. | 我认为,如果它需要一些迭代, 它就像不是世界末日。 |
| 819 | That's normal. | 这是正常的。 |
| 820 | Yes | 对 |
| 821 | You can have launches where it's like you get like it's kind of catastrophic and then it takes a while to recover | 你可以有发射的地方 它看起来像你得到 像它是一种灾难性的 然后它需要一段时间恢复 |
| 822 | But that's not good. | 但那样不好 |
| 823 | But but it's like but I mean even if it took a few iterations, it would have been fine | 但是它就像,但我的意思是,即使它需要一些迭代, 它会一直很好 |
| 824 | So, I don't know. | 所以说,我不知道。 |
| 825 | I guess it just seemed to me like this was gonna be yeah, the numbers were big | 我想这对我来说就像会是, 数字很大 |
| 826 | But I it seemed like it was probably | 但我看起来可能 |
| 827 | Was it bonding for the executive team to be? | 执行团队的感情是紧密相连的吗? |
| 828 | Holding hands taking this risk together. | 牵着双手一起冒险 |
| 829 | You're talking about Susan taking UXI. | 你说的是苏珊服用UXI。 |
| 830 | Is that a bonding moment? | 那是一个亲密的时刻吗? |
| 831 | It's like I mean, it's stressful. | 这就像我的意思, 它的压力。 |
| 832 | It's I think it was | 我觉得是 |
| 833 | Yeah, being in a stressful situation together is generally bonding. | 是啊,在一个紧张的情况 在一起是一般联系。 |
| 834 | Well, one thing that I think is quite notable about meta | 嗯,有一件事,我认为是相当显著 关于元 |
| 835 | is | 这是 |
| 836 | the degree to which like first of all, most of the exec team has been there quite a long time like Nat and I were | 我和纳特在一起很久了 |
| 837 | really newbies and | 真的新来的和 |
| 838 | and | 和 |
| 839 | You know most people have been through | 你知道大多数人都经历过 |
| 840 | crazy | 疯了 |
| 841 | situations many times in the past as well and I think I think meta as a company is like an extremely resilient company that has | 过去也发生过很多次,我想作为一家公司, 元像一个极有弹性的公司 |
| 842 | been through like, you know | 一直这样,你知道 |
| 843 | many situations that also at the time would have seemed incredibly daunting and so everyone's kind of like | 很多当时也似乎非常令人生畏的情况 所以每个人都喜欢 |
| 844 | Knows the program so to speak in terms of you know, this obviously on | 这么说来,这很显然 |
| 845 | On paper and especially when like Susan Lee our CFO is sort of like pulling me aside in the meetings | 在纸上,特别是当像Susan Lee 我们的首席财务官 有点像把我拉到会议一边 |
| 846 | Does you know does seem like a particularly | 你知道这看起来很特别吗? |
| 847 | Scary situation, but I think I think most people are like, yeah. | 情况很可怕 但我认为大多数人都喜欢 |
| 848 | Yeah, no, but we're meta | 是啊,没有,但我们是元。 |
| 849 | We're gonna get through it | 我们会熬过去的 |
| 850 | Like I think it was like a like a real camaraderie around that and and sort of a like quite a nice | 我觉得这就像一个真正的友情 周围和类似一个相当不错的 |
| 851 | Quite a nice energy around that | 周围的能量不错 |
| 852 | Which which which really I did appreciate because I think it would be very easy for | 哪个我真的很感激 因为我觉得这很容易 |
| 853 | You know, it's the other executives at the company who are | 你知道,是公司的其他高管 谁是 |
| 854 | Operating and running her big bills. | 操作和运行她的大帐单。 |
| 855 | Yeah, one of the greatest businesses of all time | 是啊,有史以来最伟大的企业之一 |
| 856 | and and it'd be very easy for them to be | 和这将是非常容易 他们成为 |
| 857 | quite a quite annoyed by this whole endeavor, but but I think I think everyone is also very excited about their what the | 对这一切相当恼火 但我想大家都很兴奋 |
| 858 | What the opportunities for the company with AI are and I think like, you know taking a step back. | 和AI公司有什么机会 我想,你知道退一步。 |
| 859 | I think one of the | 我觉得其中之一 |
| 860 | one of Mark's jobs is like the founder and CEO of the company is to ensure that the company is always | 马克的其中一项工作 就像公司的创始人兼首席执行官 是要确保公司永远 |
| 861 | pushing towards the most ambitious and | 向着最宏伟的 |
| 862 | Expansive version of what it can be and I think that like one of the great things about | 精致的版本 它可以是什么 我认为就像一个伟大的事物 |
| 863 | this entire MSL and AI push is that like I think this is like one of the rawest expressions of that is like | 整个MSL和AI的推力 就像是我认为这是最原始的表达 |
| 864 | You know, we we knew that the you know | 你知道,我们知道,你知道 |
| 865 | AI certainly is a very very important technology and it's you know, one of the bigger technologies right now | AI肯定是一个非常重要的技术,你知道的,一个更大的技术 现在 |
| 866 | but as a | 但作为一个 |
| 867 | you know if it if we were able to build it effectively and properly integrate it into everything that we do as well as like | 如果我们能有效建造它 并把它适当融入我们所做的一切 |
| 868 | You know as a full-stack technology company like build it into you know | 你知道作为一个完整的技术公司 就像把它建进你知道的 |
| 869 | these incredible products that we know will exist in the future this could be like immensely expansive for Metta and | 这些不可思议的产品,我们知道将来会存在 这可能像 巨大的扩张 对于梅塔和 |
| 870 | I think this is true. | 我认为这是真的。 |
| 871 | Like I think Muse is an incredibly exciting product | 我觉得Muse是个令人兴奋的产品 |
| 872 | It has like, you know, you can go in a thousand different directions | 它就像,你知道, 你可以走一千个不同的方向 |
| 873 | I think is one of like probably the most exciting products to just like, you know | 我觉得是其中之一 可能是最刺激的产品 只是喜欢,你知道 |
| 874 | When like late at night and you just think about all the ways it can go like I think not | 当深夜一样,你只是 想想所有的方式 它可以走 像我想不 |
| 875 | Mark and I just like, you know shoot across messages late at night of just like oh we could do this and we do this | 马克和我只是喜欢, 你知道在深夜拍摄 消息,就像哦 我们可以做到这一点,我们这样做 |
| 876 | And you know, we can make this move and we can like build this product and I think it's just like | 你知道,我们可以做这个动作 我们可以喜欢建造这个产品 我想它就像 |
| 877 | you know, very | 你知道吗,非常 |
| 878 | It's very exciting time in technology. | 科技时代非常激动人心. |
| 879 | Yeah, it's very blue ocean in that way. | 是啊,这是非常蓝色的海洋的方式。 |
| 880 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 881 | Yeah, I'm struck by as we talked about | 是啊,我被我们谈论的 |
| 882 | Muse and | 缪斯和 |
| 883 | Just how it clearly feels like the next platform an agent operating on your behalf | 就像下一个平台 代理你的经纪人一样 |
| 884 | You've talked for a long time about not wanting to be | 你已经说了很久 不想成为 |
| 885 | Reliant on other platforms and how kind of the experience of building on | 在其他平台上重新亮相,以及如何利用 |
| 886 | Android and iOS kind of burned you on being dependent on other and often when you talk about say reality labs is the importance of owning | Android and iOS 那种烧你 依赖他人, 并且经常当你谈论 现实实验室 是拥有的重要性 |
| 887 | the platform of the future and kind of many years working on reality labs with the intent of own the | 未来和许多年的平台 在现实实验室工作 目的是拥有 |
| 888 | platform of the future and now | 未来和现在 |
| 889 | This new | 这个新的 |
| 890 | Modality comes along that feels pretty clearly like how you do a lot of productive work and is the platform of the future | 模式的出现 感觉很明确 就像你如何做 很多生产性工作, 是未来的平台 |
| 891 | Yeah, and now men is really well set up. | 是啊,现在男人们都准备好了。 |
| 892 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 893 | No, I mean, it's less about | 不,我的意思是,它没有 |
| 894 | wanting to own a platform for its own sake it's about being able to build the best things and | 想要拥有一个平台 为了它自己,它就是能够 建造最好的东西和 |
| 895 | It's some level, you know, if you look at like other social apps | 你知道,如果你像其他社交应用程序一样看,这有点关卡 |
| 896 | For example, I think part of the reason why meta is so much better is because we don't just build the app | 比如说,我认为元之所以这么好, 部分原因是因为我们不光是构建应用程序 |
| 897 | A lot of people think that we're like this app company. | 很多人认为我们就像这个应用公司. |
| 898 | We're not an app company, right? | 我们不是一个应用公司,对不对? |
| 899 | It's like we're like a deep technology company and we do this because we are world-class of machine learning and like all the | 这就像我们像一个深科技公司 我们这样做,因为我们是世界一流的机器学习 像所有的 |
| 900 | Recommendation systems are operating at a scale that basically few others are in the world | 推荐系统的运作规模 世界上几乎没有其他的 |
| 901 | I think it's basically like just us and by dance on that | 我觉得它基本上就像只有我们和通过跳舞 |
| 902 | and | 和 |
| 903 | And then like okay, we just kind of go all the way to the metal and to me | 然后像好的,我们只是 那种一路到金属和我 |
| 904 | Being able to also deliver go the last mile through the device. | 也能够送货 通过装置走最后一英里。 |
| 905 | It does come from | 它确实来自 |
| 906 | Awhile of having these experiences where we couldn't build the experiences that we wanted on phones | 有了这些经历之后 我们无法在电话上积累想要的经验 |
| 907 | but I just think for the future the | 但我只是认为未来 |
| 908 | The models are going to be by far the most important part of delivering the technology experience | 这些模型将是提供技术经验的最重要部分 |
| 909 | And I mean, this is something that I think | 我的意思是,这是一件我认为 |
| 910 | We kind of bonded on agreed on like very early is this notion that like in every generation of technology companies | 我们很早就同意了 这个概念就像每代科技公司 |
| 911 | There's like no, they're usually not one company that kind of is the is like wins everything | 好像没有,他们通常不是一个公司 那种是像赢得一切 |
| 912 | I don't think that that's how this is going to go either | 我也不这么认为 |
| 913 | But with the internet there were like okay five or six a very big companies and then a whole ecosystem of other companies that | 但随着互联网,有像好 五六个非常大的公司, 然后整个生态系统 其他公司 |
| 914 | Are great, but the companies that did the best | 很棒,但公司做得最好的 |
| 915 | Kind of had the core technology to be able to | 有一种核心技术可以 |
| 916 | Serve people the best there and I think in this next era | 给人最好的服务,我想在下一个时代 |
| 917 | They're going to probably be a small handful of companies that have the ability to build frontier super intelligence | 他们很可能是少数 有能力建立前沿超级情报的公司 |
| 918 | And I think that those companies are going to be the ones that effectively drive the agenda and can build most of the interesting the most | 我认为,这些公司将有效推动议程,并且能够建立大多数有趣的公司。 |
| 919 | interesting | 有意思的,你觉得呢? |
| 920 | Experiences for consumers for enterprises hardware these different kinds of things | 企业硬件对消费者的经验 这些不同类型的东西 |
| 921 | So when I just look at it, it's okay. | 所以,当我只是看它, 它没事。 |
| 922 | Like is it even really a choice, right? | 就像它真的是一个选择,对不对? |
| 923 | It's like it like yeah, okay meta could will probably exist into the future regardless of whether we do this | 这就像是的,好吧元 可能存在在未来,无论我们这样做 |
| 924 | but if we want to be kind of an interesting company that is like | 但如果我们想成为一个有趣的公司 就像 |
| 925 | Inventing new things that matter to people in the future | 发明未来对人很重要的新事物 |
| 926 | I don't see how you can do that if you don't have the ability to build end-to-end your own | 我看不出你怎么能做到这一点 如果你没有能力 建立端到端自己的 |
| 927 | Superintelligence and build them to the products that people use and I think this is something that you just like believe from very early on | 超级智能并把它们建在人们使用的产品上 我认为这是你从一开始就喜欢相信的东西 |
| 928 | Is basically it's a guy they're gonna be like a handful of these | 基本上是一个家伙 他们会像一个小的这些 |
| 929 | Like it's like there's a kind of personal and consumer oriented version of this and like this lane is open because everyone else seems to just | 像是有个人和消费者的版本 这条车道是开放的 因为其他人似乎都只是 |
| 930 | Be obsessed so much with just automating knowledge work | 这么着迷于把知识工作自动化 |
| 931 | I mean isn't even that charismatic version of the future right because it's like all right | 我的意思是,甚至不是 魅力的版本 未来的权利,因为它像所有的权利 |
| 932 | like a big part of our belief too is that the kind of highest use of superintelligence is invention and creation not automation and | 就像我们信仰的一大部分一样 超级智能的最高用途是发明和创造而不是自动化 |
| 933 | So, I don't know it seemed like there's like a big place in there, but you gotta you kind of need to own the stack | 所以,我不知道这似乎有 像一个大的地方在那里, 但你得种需要拥有的堆 |
| 934 | how is | 怎么样 |
| 935 | the muse mediated future going to shake out with | 缪斯调解的未来 将动摇与 |
| 936 | Businesses need to okay businesses variously need to build support for | 企业需要为企业争取各种支持 |
| 937 | For | 对于 |
| 938 | Muse where it might try to computer use its way in but that might be janky in certain ways | 在它可能试图使用计算机的地方, 它可能在某些方面是粗糙的 |
| 939 | So you kind of want everyone to have first-class support for agents talking to things | 所以你希望每个人都有头等舱的支持 代理商说话的东西 |
| 940 | Yeah, then the bigger question is they might actively try to | 是啊,那么更大的问题是 他们可能会积极尝试 |
| 941 | Agents from interacting with them and this might be because they have a misguided sense where like it's actually in their interest to support agents | 和他们互动的特工 可能是因为他们有错误的感知 而这种感知实际上符合他们的利益 |
| 942 | But they don't want to it might actually not be in their interest to support agents | 但是他们不想 支持特工可能并不符合他们的利益 |
| 943 | You can imagine where maybe they have a very thin moat and it all comes from you know a business that only | 你可以想象他们哪里有一条很薄的护城河 所有这一切都来自你认识的生意 |
| 944 | Succeeds by consumers spending time on the site or only succeeds by overcharging consumers then like they should | 消费者成功在网站中度过时间 或只成功过重的消费者 |
| 945 | Rationally not want to allow agents because the agents are like wow | 理性地说,不允许代理商 因为代理商就像哇 |
| 946 | Those are gonna get so | 这些会变得如此 |
| 947 | Talk to me just through the second-order effects of like how the economy works | 跟我谈谈经济运行的二阶效应 |
| 948 | Well, I think that it starts off with I mean we trained into the models very good browser use | 嗯,我想它从一开始,我的意思是 我们训练的模型 非常好的浏览器使用 |
| 949 | Right so that way we want to make it so that no one no one has to do anything to integrate with muse | 这样我们就能让任何人 都不必做任何事来融入缪斯 |
| 950 | And then but then of course for we're kind of just going down the list of the most important partners and | 然后,但是,当然,我们 有点只是去 名单中最重要的伙伴和 |
| 951 | For people who want to work with us | 对想和我们合作的人来说 |
| 952 | We'll just get direct API access | 我们直接进入API |
| 953 | Right and then it's like okay, then it ends up being way more efficient and faster for people to use muse | 右,然后它就像好的, 然后它最终是 更有效率和更快 人们使用缪斯 |
| 954 | It's more efficient because now you don't have an agent crawling your website | 效率更高,因为现在你没有代理 爬到你的网站 |
| 955 | It's just going so anyone who wants to do that we eventually want to get there | 它只是去,所以任何人 谁想做,我们最终想得到那里 |
| 956 | And then I think the fullness of time is that you know just like today every business has | 然后我觉得时间的充裕 就是你知道,就像今天一样 |
| 957 | A website and social media accounts and email addresses and all these things every business is gonna have agents, too | 网站、社交媒体账号、电子邮件地址 和所有这些东西 每个企业都会有代理商 |
| 958 | so and we're also building that on the other side of it and | 所以,我们也正在建造 在它的另一边, |
| 959 | And so of course muse agents will talk to other types of agents | 当然Muse探员会跟其他类型的探员谈 |
| 960 | But they'll work really well with our agents right because I mean we'll we'll be able to integrate that | 但是他们和我们的特工们合作得很好 因为我想说,我们会把这件事融为一体的 |
| 961 | Just I mean so muse using websites just a moment in time thing | 我的意思是,如此缪斯使用网站 只是片刻的时间的事情 |
| 962 | They just to make it easy for everyone you guys want to have it as a backstop | 他们只是为了方便大家 你们想当后援 |
| 963 | So it's reliable for people using it yes and easy for businesses to get bootstrapped | 所以对使用它的人来说是可靠的,对企业来说是容易的 |
| 964 | But we have we have way more businesses that are calling us asking to integrate deeply | 但是我们有更多的企业 要求我们深入融合 |
| 965 | And very few really | 很少有人真的 |
| 966 | Who have tried to block it and my guess is that the ones that try to block it it will end up? | 谁试图阻止它,而我猜 那些试图阻止它的人 最终会结束它? |
| 967 | Not being the right strategic thing for them, but we'll see this will this will come play out over time | 对他们来说不是正确的战略手段 但我们会看到 这会随着时间推移而出现 |
| 968 | It saves them a lot of time it saves them a lot of money like I think these are | 省了他们很多时间 省了他们很多钱 就像我想的 |
| 969 | These are like clearly good things for the consumer so in the long arc you'd clearly expect that | 这些对消费者来说都是好东西 所以在漫长的弧线里 你显然会期待 |
| 970 | Demand will shift from current avenues more and more towards | 需求将越来越多地从现有渠道转向 |
| 971 | Agentic demand and you know there always will be | 代理需求,你知道 总会有 |
| 972 | Demand that lives elsewhere just in the same way that like there's still brick-and-mortar demand in commerce | 要求住在别处 就像在商业上还有砖块和摩尔塔一样 |
| 973 | But there's a lot of e-commerce demand and kind of in the same way like I think | 但电子商务需求很大 和我想的一样 |
| 974 | agentic commerce demand will grow as a portion of the pie the others will still exist will grow as a portion of the pie and | 代理商业需求会增长 部分馅饼 其余的会增长 |
| 975 | I think there's sort of these questions for | 我想有些问题要问 |
| 976 | businesses in the long run like do they want to participate in that slice or that portion of the economy over time and | 从长远来看,他们是否希望长期参与经济的一部分或部分? |
| 977 | I think it's an incredibly exciting area. | 我认为这是一个令人难以置信的刺激领域。 |
| 978 | I think it's like very very exciting to imagine | 我觉得这就像非常令人兴奋的想象 |
| 979 | What will happen in this agentic commerce future? | 在这个代理商的未来会发生什么? |
| 980 | I actually think Patrick wrote a great | 我觉得帕特里克写得很棒 |
| 981 | Yeah | 对 |
| 982 | Tweetical is that what we call it these days. | 令人惊叹的是,现在我们称之为它。 |
| 983 | I don't know Patrick has his own thing going on with tweets | 我不知道Patrick自己在推特上也有问题 |
| 984 | It's like they're buried amidst. | 好像埋在他们中间一样 |
| 985 | I noticed the brother Karmatsov was a was a quite a yeah | 我注意到Karmatsov哥哥是个很厉害的人 |
| 986 | That was long quite a good literary analysis, but uh yeah | 说来话长 文学分析不错 不过是的 |
| 987 | Well, you know I think I think like I think clearly there's this is a | 嗯,你知道,我想我觉得像 我想显然有一个 |
| 988 | discontinuous event for how | 如何终止事件 |
| 989 | You know commerce will happen broadly speaking or just generally speaking have like the entire how all the business pipes will work | 你知道商业将发生 广义上,或只是一般地说, 拥有像整个如何 所有的商业管道将工作 |
| 990 | Maybe even in a broader sense, but I think that you know you just go back to this is clearly a lot better for the consumers | 也许从更广义的意义上来说,但我想你知道 你刚刚回到这个显然对消费者更好 |
| 991 | It's a lot better for the customers, so there's a natural gravity towards that reality one of the exciting things | 这对顾客来说要好得多 所以对现实来说自然有引力 令人兴奋的事情之一 |
| 992 | I'm curious what you guys see too | 我也好奇你们看到什么 |
| 993 | But I think I think news is one of the first products where you're actually people are fully delegating | 但我认为新闻是最早的产物之一 在那里,你实际上是人们 完全授权 |
| 994 | Purchases to the agents, and this is like a this is kind of like a you know a step change, right? | 给特工们买东西 这就像一个... ...你知道一个步骤的改变,对不对? |
| 995 | Like I think you know we've been talking a lot about agentic shopping and like the possibility of it | 像我想你知道我们一直在谈论 代理购物,喜欢的可能性 |
| 996 | But now it's like really happening and a lot of people are trusting the agents to shop for them | 但是现在就像真的发生了一样 很多人都相信代理商会替他们买东西 |
| 997 | And I think the agents are finding them you know in my case like great teas or you know | 我觉得特工们正在找到他们 你对我而言就像喝茶一样 |
| 998 | Who's ever case like great products for them to purchase? | 谁会像大产品一样买? |
| 999 | Which is quite exciting and and so I think that there's | 这是相当令人兴奋的, 所以我认为有 |
| 1000 | There's clearly | 很明显 |
| 1001 | An exciting thing happening | 令人兴奋的事情发生了 |
| 1002 | I think I think part of the value prop well one one part of the value prop for the users just reduce friction like hey | 我想我认为部分价值 道具好 一部分价值 道具给用户 只是减少摩擦 像嘿 |
| 1003 | I don't feel like click on all these websites and do all this research to try to find the exact products like that step is | 我不喜欢点击所有这些网站 并做所有这些研究 试图找到精确的产品 像这个步骤是 |
| 1004 | Taking care of for me and also like criterias can just be automatically applied like hey | 照顾我和像标准一样的 只能像嘿嘿一样自动应用 |
| 1005 | I need something by Wednesday, so you know the agent will only look for things that could get to me by Wednesday | 周三之前我需要一些东西,所以你知道 经纪人只会在周三之前找到可以找到的东西 |
| 1006 | There's I mean keyword search it was insane that we ever relied on those because that's a very reasonable constraints to want to shop by | 我的意思是关键词搜索,这是疯狂的 我们曾经依赖这些 因为这是一个非常合理的限制 想要购买通过 |
| 1007 | Yeah, exactly and and and and so I think the like old way of like searching for stuff just feels so obviously primitive now | 是的,准确的,而且,所以我认为 像旧的方式喜欢寻找的东西 只是感觉如此明显 原始现在 |
| 1008 | now that you can do this then there's this sort of like | 现在,你可以做到这一点, 那么有这种喜欢 |
| 1009 | Back part of the funnel so to speak, but just like the ease of friction reduction of just yeah filling up | 说来话长 但就像摩擦减少的轻便程度 |
| 1010 | Just like getting it ordered | 就像得到它订购 |
| 1011 | Is quite nice, and I think the long term thing that we're quite excited about is is greater personalization like ultimately | 很不错,我觉得我们很兴奋的是 个人化程度更高 |
| 1012 | We think I think one of the exciting things about news is that it is has sort of like this holistic | 我觉得新闻的令人兴奋之处之一 就是它有点像这个整体 |
| 1013 | Context into you as a person and all of the aspects of your life | 一个人的背景和生活的各个方面 |
| 1014 | So it's sort of like can holistically understand things about your family or things about your co-workers or things about your friends and then like | 所以,它有点像可以 整体理解的东西 关于你的家庭 或者事情 你的同事 或者事情 关于你的朋友,然后喜欢 |
| 1015 | You know sort of like help you co-optimize across all of those to get you the exact right gift for your you know | 你知道那种类型的帮助 你合作优化 在所有那些给你 准确正确的礼物,你知道 |
| 1016 | Best friend in the context of your friend group based on what it knows about your fire | 根据你对火情的了解 你朋友小组里最好的朋友 |
| 1017 | Like I think there's just like a lot of exciting opportunities | 就像我觉得有很多刺激的机会 |
| 1018 | that that are somewhat new and novel and when it comes to like these personalization these recommendations because historically a lot of these recommendation systems are | 这些建议有些新颖,如果说喜欢这些个性化建议,因为历史上许多建议系统都是 |
| 1019 | Quite siloed and quite isolated | 相当孤僻和孤立 |
| 1020 | and so they're sort of like they don't see like a holistic view of | 因此,他们有点像 他们不认为一个整体的观点 |
| 1021 | You as a person and muses has an opportunity to offer much greater levels of personalization | 你作为一个人和缪斯有机会提供 更高层次的个性化 |
| 1022 | Yeah, I think people are already seeing that where if they ask | 是啊,我想人们已经看到 在那里如果他们问 |
| 1023 | Like with muse if you ask it to buy something for you quite frequently | 喜欢与缪斯 如果你要求它 买东西给你 |
| 1024 | It'll add in some bit of context that it pulled in from a different, you know conversation. | 它会在某种语境中加上它从不同的语境中抽出来,你知道的。 |
| 1025 | You had a good example this | 你有一个很好的例子 |
| 1026 | Yeah, well, so yeah, so my my three-year-old daughter | 是啊,那么,所以是啊, 所以我的三岁的女儿 |
| 1027 | Loves baking she loves cooking and so my god, I'll start baking stuff | 喜欢烤她喜欢做饭 所以我要开始烤东西 |
| 1028 | It's like I'm normally into you know smoking meats | 就像我平时喜欢抽烟一样 |
| 1029 | But like but I'll do some baking in order to make to make a really happy and so we've gotten into this | 但我会做一些烘焙 为了让一个真正的快乐, 所以我们得到了这个 |
| 1030 | really cute routine where | 可爱的例行公事 |
| 1031 | You know, we I've been playing with muse voice mode, which isn't fully rolled out yet, but we're we're playing with it and | 你知道,我们一直在玩 缪斯语音模式, 它还没有完全推出, 但我们是在玩它, |
| 1032 | It does this great thing. | 它做这个伟大的事情。 |
| 1033 | It segments the the voices who it knows which one is me and it knows which one is not me | 它分辨出谁知道谁是我,谁知道谁不是我 |
| 1034 | based on that and we just like, you know | 在此基础上,我们只是喜欢,你知道 |
| 1035 | throughout the week we're talking about what we'll want to bake that weekend and | 整个星期,我们谈论什么 我们要烤那个周末, |
| 1036 | she'll like | 她会喜欢 |
| 1037 | Give it ideas or like she'll kind of come up with crazy things that are not real recipes | 给它一些想法,或者说她会想出一些疯狂的东西 而不是真正的食谱 |
| 1038 | but like the bounce it off with with with muse and and then | 但就像用缪斯弹出 然后 |
| 1039 | Muse will just make sure that we every you know Saturday when it's time to bake | 穆斯会确保周六你都认识 是时候烤了 |
| 1040 | I get the ingredients from Instacart and they they kind of show up and they're on time | 我从Instacart那里拿到原料 他们来了 他们准时来了 |
| 1041 | Which I mean the biggest thing is like if I were just starting the activity on Saturday | 我的意思是,最大的事情是 如果我刚刚开始 活动在星期六 |
| 1042 | You'd have to get everything and it would take some time, but now everything's ready whenever we're gonna go sit down and do it | 你必须得到一切,它需要一些时间, 但现在一切都准备好了,只要我们要去坐下来做。 |
| 1043 | This weekend it knew that watermelon was launching. | 这个周末它知道西瓜会发射 |
| 1044 | So it threw a watermelon in the bag | 所以它把西瓜扔进袋子里 |
| 1045 | It was very very sweet. | 非常贴心 |
| 1046 | It was very heartwarming | 感觉很温暖 |
| 1047 | It deduced that that I that the recipe it did not have enough | 我推断出它没有足够的食谱 |
| 1048 | There was not enough I guess | 看来还不够 |
| 1049 | Expense in it to get the delivery so it needed something else and it was like you're gonna and it talked it up with | 花很多钱去送货 所以它需要别的东西 就像你要去和它谈过一样 |
| 1050 | Like do you want this watermelon? | 你想吃西瓜吗? |
| 1051 | I was like, yes. | 我很喜欢,是的。 |
| 1052 | I'm like, yes, that's very cute | 我喜欢,是的,这是非常可爱的 |
| 1053 | Which I think you do you is that the watermelon you? | 我想你做的就是西瓜吗? |
| 1054 | Okay, but the watermelon the live stream was that was just like you just got it for me | 好吧,但西瓜 活溪是 就像你刚得到它给我 |
| 1055 | Yeah, just got it for me | 是啊,刚给我的 |
| 1056 | But but I think there's this that was a very memeable moment of that very memeable situation | 但我认为这个时刻 是一个非常美好的时刻 |
| 1057 | So we have we have muse to thank for it | 所以我们有缪斯来感谢它 |
| 1058 | So but here's another interesting thing about the whole thing is I didn't really use Instacart that much before | 但还有一件有趣的事情是 我之前没有真正用过Instacart |
| 1059 | You know, it's like every once in a while maybe twice a year | 你知道,这就像每隔一段时间 也许一年两次 |
| 1060 | 我想用Priscilla的账户什么的 | |
| 1061 | Yes | 对 |
| 1062 | I went and got an Instacart account to give muse and now I use it like once or twice a week because like I'm talking | 我得到了一个Instacart账户给缪斯 现在我使用它 像一周一两次 因为我在说话 |
| 1063 | With Aurelia with muse and we're coming up with these recipes and it's delivering them and now it's like a core part of my workflow | 带着Muse的Aurelia,我们想出这些食谱 它正在送来,现在就像我工作流程的核心部分 |
| 1064 | So I actually think that the opportunity here isn't just okay | 所以我觉得这里的机会不是那么好 |
| 1065 | It's gonna be 20% more efficient on the conversion rate | 转换率会提高20% |
| 1066 | Like I am a new Instacart's like subscriber and I just wouldn't have done this before | 就像我是一个新的Instacart's 像用户,我只是不会这样做之前 |
| 1067 | So I do think that there's this question and then there's this question, which I think is these sort of interesting | 所以,我确实认为有这样一个问题, 然后有这样一个问题, 我认为是这种有趣的 |
| 1068 | Like this is maybe the more interesting economic question is is that Instacart account really for me or is it for the muse? | 也许这更有趣的经济问题是 Instacart的帐户 真的是给我的还是给缪斯的? |
| 1069 | Because I think like over time | 因为我觉得像随着时间的推移 |
| 1070 | I think that the question is is the total addressable market for all of commerce just increasing dramatically | 我认为问题在于 整个商业市场 都能解决 |
| 1071 | Yes, because it's not just the people anymore like now agents are effectively going to have accounts | 是的,因为现在这样的人 不仅仅是特工们会有账户 |
| 1072 | Yes, and I think that's where this starts to like become a really very exciting opportunity where anyone who sits this out | 是的,我想这就是开始喜欢 成为一个非常令人兴奋的机会 在那里,任何坐在这里的人 |
| 1073 | I think is gonna end up feeling sad over time | 我觉得以后会很伤心的 |
| 1074 | And why did you have to sign up for an Instacart account like we're solving this abstract projects for developer stuff | 为什么你要注册Instacart账户 就像我们正在解决这个抽象的项目 开发商的东西 |
| 1075 | Or your coding agents destroy integration, by the way is great. | 或者你的编码员破坏整合,顺便说一句,是伟大的。 |
| 1076 | You guys you guys did a great job of this | 你们干得不错 |
| 1077 | I think we're very | 我觉得我们很 |
| 1078 | We've been very excited about agent and commerce for a long time obviously because again | 我们一直很兴奋 经纪人和商贸 显然因为再次 |
| 1079 | it's felt to us like clearly how people are going to buy things in the in the future and | 我们感觉很明确 人们将来会怎样买东西 |
| 1080 | that was both apparent because no one needs all that friction in their life from the actual buying stage and | 这都很明显,因为没有人需要 生活中的所有摩擦 从实际购买阶段, |
| 1081 | How early product research with AI had product market face like even from kind of the earliest AI's | 早期的AI产品研究 如何有产品市场面貌 甚至从某种最早的AI。 |
| 1082 | It really feels like computer use was like the last big unlock that we needed to make it happen because now you can ask your | 感觉就像电脑是最后一个大解锁 因为现在你可以问你 |
| 1083 | To buy anything more or less and then to just figure it out with computers, right? | 买东西或多或少,然后用电脑解决,对吧? |
| 1084 | And so it's like the ultimate backwards compatibility. | 所以它就像最终的反向兼容。 |
| 1085 | Yeah, it's business a set of things that not really obsessed over | 是的,这是生意 一套事情,没有真正迷恋 |
| 1086 | Yeah, I think I think there was a lot of like I think a lot of magic of Muse is the fact that like a lot | 是的,我想我有很多感觉 我觉得很多魔法 缪斯的事实是,像很多 |
| 1087 | Of the stuff just works and so like clearly if everything was just like a little bit less reliable | 如果一切都那么不可靠的话 |
| 1088 | It would feel like a total pain in the ass and nobody would use it and people just throw away the app | 感觉像一个完全痛苦的屁股 没有人会使用它 人们只是扔掉应用程序 |
| 1089 | And so I think the fact that so much of this has gotten to the point of reliability where you know | 所以,我认为事实, 这么多的这一切已经 到了可靠性的点 |
| 1090 | It just works is like a huge part of the magic. | 它只是工作 就像魔力的一大部分。 |
| 1091 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1092 | That was obsessed with oh, well, I mean that's not kind of | 这很迷恋 哦,好吧,我的意思是,这不是那种 |
| 1093 | Everything. | 一切众生. |
| 1094 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1095 | No, it's great. | 不,这是伟大的。 |
| 1096 | It's great. | 赞曰. |
| 1097 | But this is I mean, but yeah, I mean this getting this experience to be good | 但这是我的意思,但 是的,我的意思是,这 使这个经验是好的 |
| 1098 | I think it's something that that he in a core group of people on that team really focused on it's kind of funny | 我觉得这是他在一个核心群体 在团队中真正专注于 这是一种有趣的 |
| 1099 | I think I had a dinner with Patrick like I want to say it was | 我想我和帕特里克一起吃过晚饭了 就像我想说的那样 |
| 1100 | 2023 where I was he was like, what do you think we should be doing? | 2023年我和他一样 你觉得我们应该做什么? |
| 1101 | I was like, oh you're you're like you're already way behind the eight ball on this agent to commerce stuff | 我当时想,哦,你就像你已经落后 八球在这个代理商的东西 |
| 1102 | Like you got to figure this stuff out | 碞钩眔稱快猭 |
| 1103 | Like he just gonna be buying things and like you're not prepared for it | 好像他会买东西,你还没准备好 |
| 1104 | And you were thinking this pattern or part of seeing this I was saying this to Patrick | 你当时在想这个模式 或者是看到这个 我对帕特里克说 |
| 1105 | Well, cuz Patrick was very politely asked. | 因为Patrick很礼貌地问了 |
| 1106 | What do you think we should be doing? | 你觉得我们应该做什么? |
| 1107 | And I sort of had this like very like urgent spiel. | 我有点像急事一样 |
| 1108 | Yeah, and I think it's very | 是啊,我觉得这是非常 |
| 1109 | It's funny how that was like you for your provocation. | 很有趣,因为你挑衅我 |
| 1110 | It was it was directionally correct | 这是方向正确 |
| 1111 | but but like when we were three years early in 2023, I think and so | 但就像2023年我们早3岁时一样,我想是这样 |
| 1112 | It's very interesting to look at the agenda commerce | 考虑一下议事日程商业很有意义 |
| 1113 | stats at stripe because | 数字在条纹上,因为 |
| 1114 | We started developing all this stuff | 我们开始开发这些东西 |
| 1115 | I mean we had a whole bunch of announcements at sessions back in May and then it only as of September basically started going vertical | 在五月份的会话上我们有一大堆的通告 直到九月份才开始垂直 |
| 1116 | Met is building increasingly capable models including muse wonder and their models are available on open router alongside hundreds of others | Met正在建造能力越来越强的模型,包括Muse奇迹,其模型与数百个其他模型一起在开放的路由器上可供使用。 |
| 1117 | Stripe has agreed to acquire open router who's the leading model gateway | Frede已经同意购买开放路由器 谁是领先的模型网关 |
| 1118 | Open router already routes more than 10 trillion tokens a day and handles much of the complexity of working with different models through a single API | 打开路由器已经每天运行超过10万亿令牌,并且通过单一的API处理与不同模型合作的许多复杂问题 |
| 1119 | Making it easier to experiment find competitive prices and automatically route around provider outages | 使试验更容易找到有竞争力的价格,并自动绕过供货商停电 |
| 1120 | Try it for yourself at open router dot AI | 在开放路由器点AI上自己试试 |
| 1121 | Hey, could you order a watermelon to stripes office in South San Francisco? | 你能叫西瓜去旧金山南部的办公室吗? |
| 1122 | I'm doing a podcast here. | 我在这里播客。 |
| 1123 | This would be funny | 这很有趣 |
| 1124 | Funny podcast idea. | 有趣的播客创意。 |
| 1125 | I'll check that watermelon delivery now | 我现在就去检查西瓜 |
| 1126 | Great. | 不错 |
| 1127 | We'll see how we get on | 看我们怎么上路 |
| 1128 | Well, okay, this actually raising an interesting question | 好吧,这其实是一个有趣的问题 |
| 1129 | People have been trying to make the how | 人们一直试图使 |
| 1130 | 9,000 it's working. | 九千有为. |
| 1131 | I really like this | 我真的很喜欢这样 |
| 1132 | It's tough to prop up. | 坚固拥护. |
| 1133 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1134 | And | 还有 |
| 1135 | People even trying to make the speak to a computer AI vision happen for a really long time | 人们甚至试图让说话 计算机AI的视觉 发生很长一段时间 |
| 1136 | where Apple launched theory in | 苹果公司在 |
| 1137 | 2014 2015 something like that and | 2014年2015年 类似的事情 |
| 1138 | Obviously, there's been voice mode and various AI products for a few years now | 很明显,有 语音模式和各种AI产品 现在几年了 |
| 1139 | Why is it so hard? | 为什么这么难? |
| 1140 | like it's still not the case if you were driving your car and you wanted to | 就像你开你的车 你想开的一样 |
| 1141 | Check on the baking or move a meeting or something like that. | 检查一下烘焙或移动一个会议或类似的东西。 |
| 1142 | Yes, you probably wouldn't do it with the voice | 是的,你可能不会做 用声音 |
| 1143 | Maybe almost now | 也许现在差不多了 |
| 1144 | Now is actually a good example as we're talking over each other and I don't know when you're using different so is it just technical limitations | 现在是一个很好的例子,因为我们在谈论 彼此,我不知道 当你使用不同的,所以这只是技术限制 |
| 1145 | That's why we haven't done it. | 故未办. |
| 1146 | Well, I well I think that there's a few things and one is you actually want it to go do | 好吧,我很好,我认为有 几件事,有一个 你真的希望它去做 |
| 1147 | Stuff so there's a question of when you speak with it, even if it understands. | 因此,有一个问题 你说话的时间, 即使它理解。 |
| 1148 | Yeah, how's that gonna work? | 是啊,这怎么行? |
| 1149 | Then I think that there's a lot of stuff about the way that people have conversations | 我觉得有很多关于人们谈话的方式 |
| 1150 | It isn't typically I will give a prompt and now I will wait and you will speak and then so it just | 我一般不急着说,现在我等着你说话,然后说 |
| 1151 | goes back and forth so | 不停地走来走去 |
| 1152 | How many of your sessions when you're talking to an agent in voice mode? | 在语音模式下与代理交谈时,您有多少次会话?. |
| 1153 | Do you basically know it starts saying something? | 你基本知道它开始说些什么吗? |
| 1154 | But then like I know it's like I kind of feel like if I pause for three seconds | 但后来我仿佛知道 如果我暂停三秒钟 |
| 1155 | It's gonna think I'm done and want to speak and then if it starts speaking | 它会认为我已经说完了, 想说话,然后如果它开始说话 |
| 1156 | But then I cut back in is it gonna think that it's like a whole new question | 但后来我又退了一步,它会觉得 这就像一个全新的问题 |
| 1157 | When there's a lot of the stuff about the conversational dynamics that you want to get right, but then there's this other issue, which is that | 当有很多关于对话动态的东西 你想得到正确的, 但还有另一个问题,这就是 |
| 1158 | For voice overall | 整个语音 |
| 1159 | It's quite high bandwidth for you to communicate with voice, but in terms of consuming information | 与声音交流的带宽相当高 但从消费信息来看 |
| 1160 | Having someone speak to you is very inefficient compared to having it be visual | 和你说话的人 和直观的人相比 效率太低了 |
| 1161 | Yeah, so I think like that's why you know, partially when we do these | 是啊,所以我想这就是为什么你知道,部分 当我们做这些 |
| 1162 | These interfaces I think it's it's kind of working on its task | 这些界面,我想是它的工作 |
| 1163 | I'm fired off now. | 我现在被解雇了。 |
| 1164 | So I think the ideal interface is probably not just strictly voice voice | 所以我认为理想的界面 可能不只是语音 |
| 1165 | Although I think voice | 虽然我觉得声音 |
| 1166 | Output from you is pretty useful. | 您的输出相当有用。 |
| 1167 | Yeah, I think I think they're very clearly already is an explosion of voice input | 是的,我想他们已经很明确了 是声音输入的爆炸 |
| 1168 | Like I think you even see this encoding. | 我觉得你甚至看到这个编码。 |
| 1169 | We're like, you know, we're speaking to them | 我们就像,你知道, 我们正在和他们说话 |
| 1170 | Yeah, most of the researchers just kind of like whisper into their into their keyboard because it is like as Mark mentioned | 是啊,大多数研究者只是有点像 悄悄地进入他们的键盘 因为就像马克提到 |
| 1171 | It's like the the highest bandwidth way to get your like thoughts out or usually the lowest friction way to get your thoughts out | 这就像最高带宽的方式 让你喜欢的想法出来 或者通常最低的摩擦方式 让你的想法出来 |
| 1172 | Yeah, I think the most extreme version of this by the way is like I think how | 是的,我认为最极端的版本 顺便说一句,就像我想 |
| 1173 | Like college students now use AI is maybe the most interesting where they just like I think a very common modality of how to use | 就像大学生现在使用人工智能一样 也许最有趣的是 他们就像我想一个非常常见的方式如何使用 |
| 1174 | AI is that they just will | AI是他们只是会 |
| 1175 | Completely word vomit for like 10 15 minutes | 满词呕吐10个15分钟 |
| 1176 | Yeah, like being full full sort of like stream of consciousness shift out of like all the things and then have AI clean it up | 是啊,就像完全一样 意识的流 转移出来 像所有的事情,然后有AI清理它 |
| 1177 | And then for yeah and have AI effectively like do all of this sort of like | 然后因为是的,并且让AI有效地 做所有这些类似 |
| 1178 | Organization of it and like pulling things together and and structuring everything. | 组织它,就像把事情拉在一起,安排一切。 |
| 1179 | It's like it's quite interesting | 好像很有趣一样 |
| 1180 | It's a very interesting like yes, I think modality of tech usage, but um, yeah, I think voice input has been big | 这是一种非常有趣的,就像是的, 我认为方式 技术使用, 但是,嗯,是的,我觉得声音输入 很大 |
| 1181 | I do think agents is like that's a big step change because I think the mental model | 我觉得特工们就像一个很大的改变 因为我认为精神模型 |
| 1182 | Is just very different like if it's just like an | 只是非常不同,如果它只是像一个 |
| 1183 | Informational thing that you're talking to that like you will clearly get into situations | 你和这种人说话的信息 肯定会陷入困境 |
| 1184 | Which is feels useless whereas like now that I can do things for you | 这感觉没用,而现在我可以为你做一些事情 |
| 1185 | It's like much closer to the experience of talking to a human total or to a person | 这就像更接近 与人类或人交谈的经验 |
| 1186 | And so I think there's all these like interesting uncanny valleys and like interacting with | 所以,我认为所有这些 像有趣的 不可思议的山谷 像互动 |
| 1187 | AI's that until they've been able to take actions like I felt kind of strange and now that we have agents like I think one of | AI的,直到他们 已经能够采取行动 像我觉得有点奇怪 现在,我们有 代理像我想 |
| 1188 | the cool things about | 很酷的东西 |
| 1189 | Muse is like this confluence of a number of things like I think the fact that Muse is embodied and it like is this little guy | 缪斯就像一些东西的交汇点 我认为缪斯就是这个小人物 |
| 1190 | That like you feel like is working on your behalf is also only possible and a coherent like | 就像你觉得自己在代表你工作一样 也只有这样才能做到 |
| 1191 | representation and embodiment of the product because it has persistent memory and it has | 产品的代表性和表现,因为它具有持久的记忆力,而且具有 |
| 1192 | The ability to do things for you and the ability to take actions and has like a little bit of a personality like is the | 为你做事情的能力 以及采取行动的能力 就像个性有点像 |
| 1193 | Confluence of all these things coming together then make this like embodiment concept | 把这些东西拼凑在一起 然后把事情变成化身 |
| 1194 | Even work in the first place and it turns out okay. | 一开始甚至工作 结果也不错 |
| 1195 | Actually, this is the real glasses, right? | 其实,这是真正的眼镜,对不对? |
| 1196 | That's like what keeps a lot of people want it even with just like no display or a small display | 这就像让很多人想要的东西 即使没有展示或是小展示 |
| 1197 | The camera and audio is enough of a useful product. | 相机和音频足以成为有用的产品. |
| 1198 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1199 | Yeah, and I and then | 是啊,我和后来 |
| 1200 | We started shipping the display glasses that aren't the kind of wide field of view full augmented reality | 我们开始运送显示眼镜 不是那种广的视野 |
| 1201 | Which I mean, I felt we awesome too, but though even the small display | 我的意思是,我也觉得我们真棒, 但是即使小展示 |
| 1202 | It's pretty powerful. | 这是相当强大的。 |
| 1203 | So I think you'll start getting some interesting interactions there that are kind of fully | 所以,我认为你会得到一些有趣的互动 在那里是那种完全 |
| 1204 | Multimodal right so it's voice in and out and it'll be able to see what you see and it'll be able to kind of | 多模式右,所以它的声音 进出,它可以看到什么, 它可以有点 |
| 1205 | Paint the pixels and one of the I mean the other exciting thing that were where we've done here is news gadgets | 画像素和其中之一 我的意思是另一个令人兴奋的事情 我们曾经在这里做的是新闻节目 |
| 1206 | which is really I think unleashing the ecosystem to | 我认为这真的 释放生态系统 |
| 1207 | Try cool device formats and form factors that could be really exciting like since releasing that we've gotten actually even a number of phone | 试一下很酷的装置格式 和形式因素 这可能是非常令人兴奋的,因为发布后 我们得到了很多电话 |
| 1208 | Manufacturers, you know talk to us about excited, you know | 制造商,你知道 跟我们谈论兴奋,你知道 |
| 1209 | We're like we're just gonna integrate news gadgets into our phone and see how well it works and like we're really excited about that | 我们就像我们只是要整合 新闻设备 在我们的手机, 看看它如何工作, |
| 1210 | like I think I think part of what is cool about the current moment of technology is that like | 我觉得目前科技的酷点是 |
| 1211 | It's very clear agents are really exciting. | 很明显的特工们真的很激动人心 |
| 1212 | It's really clear that like this should unlock lots of things | 很明显,这样可以解开很多东西 |
| 1213 | Will you guys come back to the household devices? | 你们能回到家用设备吗? |
| 1214 | Like this is obviously a personal device | 这显然是个人的装置 |
| 1215 | but we actually had during Coovers the | 但我们在科弗斯期间 |
| 1216 | Portress the portal portal portal. | 移植门户门户门户. |
| 1217 | There we go. | 开始了 |
| 1218 | Yeah, I mean it like is it finally the | 是啊,我的意思是,它就像终于 |
| 1219 | One of the gadgets that we just shipped is the little home link | 我们刚运来的装备之一 就是小的家用链接 |
| 1220 | It's like the size of a little like nickel or something, but with a with a USB, right? | 这就像一个有点像镍什么的大小, 但有一个与USB,对不对? |
| 1221 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1222 | So you can basically connect that and then your muse can connect to everything in your home | 所以你基本上可以连接,然后你的缪斯可以连接到你家里的一切 |
| 1223 | This is actually one of the one of the most fun things too is just having it | 这其实也是最有趣的事情之一 就是拥有它 |
| 1224 | Yes, connect to your Sonos and connect to all your lights | 是的,连接到你的索诺斯 连接到你所有的灯光 |
| 1225 | I have it basically like when it's time for me to start winding down in the evening | 我拥有它基本上 就像当我开始 在晚上的风下 |
| 1226 | I just have it like dim all the lights across the house and | 我只是有它像昏暗 所有灯光过的房子和 |
| 1227 | It's it's nice. | 谓善哉. |
| 1228 | How are we gonna fund the AI build out? | 我们要怎么资助人工智能? |
| 1229 | Everyone's worried about you know, Google went free cash flow negative | 大家都很担心,谷歌是免费现金流负数 |
| 1230 | You know, you're talking about one gigabyte | 你知道,你说的是一个千兆字节 |
| 1231 | Yeah, then five gigawatts and everything like this that is not free cash flow negative. | 是啊,然后五千兆瓦 和像这样的东西,不是免费 现金流负数。 |
| 1232 | Yes, but there's always more capex to | 是的,但总是有 更多的披风到 |
| 1233 | Defund and so | 退款之类的 |
| 1234 | No, I mean look I think I | 不,我的意思是看,我认为我 |
| 1235 | Think that there are gonna be a lot of ways to create value from this | 认为有很多方法可以创造价值 |
| 1236 | so what we're trying to do with muse specifically is | 所以,我们正试图 与缪斯具体是 |
| 1237 | Make it so that it can be | 让它可以 |
| 1238 | Widely used because I think that they're gonna be some kind of | 被广泛使用,因为我认为他们会是某种 |
| 1239 | Valuable network effects at scale as people start being able to interact with each other's and that's gonna be great | 随着人们开始互相交流 网络效应在规模上是有价值的 这将是伟大的 |
| 1240 | So I think there are all these reasons why you want it to get to large scale | 所以,我认为有所有这些原因 你希望它得到大规模的 |
| 1241 | Also, you know, we're talking about partners partners are gonna want to integrate more the more people are using it | 而且,你知道,我们谈论的合作伙伴 会希望整合 更多人使用它 |
| 1242 | So it will get more valuable if we can get it to scale | 所以,如果我们能把它放大,它就会更有价值 |
| 1243 | The best way to do that is to basically have a model where it is affordable and free for people to use | 最好的办法是 基本上有一个模型 能够负担得起和免费 人们使用 |
| 1244 | But there are gonna be a lot of ways that I think we can we can scale revenue | 但有很多方法 我认为我们可以 扩大收入 |
| 1245 | Subscriptions is gonna be a big one | 订阅会很大 |
| 1246 | You know basically | 基本上,你知道的,你应该知道 |
| 1247 | Just because the base version of it is free and we want the free version to be excellent | 因为它的基版是免费的 我们希望自由的版本是优秀的 |
| 1248 | Doesn't mean that there are things that just naturally aren't going to be economical to include in that | 这并不意味着有些事情 自然是不经济的 |
| 1249 | so, you know if you want the the kind of | 所以,你知道,如果你想要的那种 |
| 1250 | We talked about this earlier if you want to start using muse wonder in news | 我们之前谈过了 如果你想在新闻中用缪斯的奇观 |
| 1251 | Tomorrow then you know the way that you'll do that is you'll you'll pay for a subscription | 明天你就会知道自己会怎么做, 你会支付订阅费 |
| 1252 | So I think that that will be a big business | 所以,我认为这将是一个大生意 |
| 1253 | There are a bunch of other things around commerce that we're quite excited about too | 商业上还有好多东西 我们也很兴奋 |
| 1254 | Where we basically think we believe that muse is actually gonna make people money and save people money by by using it and that | 我们基本上认为缪斯会通过使用它来赚钱 拯救人们 |
| 1255 | Over time there are lots of different ways to effectively take a small cut of what you are saving or making for people and that | 随着时间的推移,有许多不同的方法 有效采取小 削减你节省或制造的人, |
| 1256 | Will end up being a very large | 会变成一个非常大的人 |
| 1257 | Revenue stream and then there's all the other things right so | 收入流,然后有 所有其他事情是正确的 |
| 1258 | You think news will generally just cost negative money for people because it helps | 你觉得新闻一般只会给人们带来负面代价 因为它有助于 |
| 1259 | Already all these things that I think are interesting where people are like go look through my emails find a bunch of subscriptions | 这些东西我都觉得很有趣 在那里人们喜欢去查看我的电子邮件 找到一堆订阅 |
| 1260 | I don't actually use cancel them whatever | 其实我不用取消什么 |
| 1261 | Yeah, so yeah, I mean that | 是啊,所以是啊,我是说 |
| 1262 | I don't know if that's a thing that we would monetize but but like but you get you get you kind of get the point | 我不知道这是不是我们想要货币化的事儿 但是... ...但是... |
| 1263 | And where it helps you make money | 让你赚钱的地方 |
| 1264 | I mean one of the ideas that we kind of talk about him | 我是说我们谈论他的想法之一 |
| 1265 | This is this is something that I think you've been kind of obsessed with is making it like a business in a box for small businesses | 我觉得这是你迷恋的东西 把它变成小生意 |
| 1266 | So someone can just kind of it can help them administer all these parts of what they're doing and like you can imagine that being | 所以有人可以只是一种 它可以帮助他们管理 所有这些部分 他们在做什么,像你可以想象 |
| 1267 | Very valuable and being very profitable both for the business owner and for meta | 非常有价值,对企业主和元都非常有利可图 |
| 1268 | But I think one of the things that's interesting is like okay if we're building the models | 但我认为其中一件有趣的事情 是像没关系 如果我们建造模型 |
| 1269 | To build the personal agents and the business agent | 建造私人代理和商务代理 |
| 1270 | There is this large surplus of value because now the model it's very general right so it doesn't just do those things | 因为现在的模型很普通 所以它不只是做那些事 |
| 1271 | So what we'll sub the API that'll be profitable a big part of why? | 那么,我们如何潜入API, 这会盈利很大的一部分为什么? |
| 1272 | We want to start the meta enterprise platform and have CJ decide join us to build this is you know | 我们想启动元企业平台 让CJ决定加入我们 建造这个 |
| 1273 | We have this view which is like all right. | 我们有这样的观点,这就像所有的权利。 |
| 1274 | Yeah, sure | 当然 |
| 1275 | So traditionally meta hasn't been an enterprise company | 所以传统上,元不是企业公司 |
| 1276 | But we believe that a huge part of the challenge is building the leading models in the first place | 但我们相信,挑战的一大部分是首先要建立主要的模型 |
| 1277 | they're very general and once we do that if we make a | 他们非常普通,一旦我们这样做,如果我们做一个 |
| 1278 | significant investment in in building an enterprise group that can | 对建设能够 |
| 1279 | Provide that in the way that enterprises need to consume it then I think a lot of enterprises are gonna want to use muse wonder | 提供企业需要消费的方式 我认为很多企业会想使用缪斯的奇迹 |
| 1280 | it's gonna be an excellent model and affordable and like it's so | 这将是一个优秀的模型 和负担得起的,就像它是如此 |
| 1281 | So I think that that is gonna end up being a very big business too and all of these things put together | 所以,我认为,这将是 最终会是一个非常大 业务太 和所有这些事情汇集在一起 |
| 1282 | Coupled with the fact that we were already starting off as a very profitable business that can that has good credit and can kind of underwrite | 再加上我们已经开始 一个非常有利可图的生意 能够有良好的信用 并可以担保 |
| 1283 | These large investments. | 这些大投资。 |
| 1284 | I think puts us in a pretty good position as a lab to be able to build out the compute that we need | 我认为,我们处于一个相当好的地位 作为一个实验室 能够建立我们所需要的计算 |
| 1285 | to build leading products build up the network around this and position the company to | 建设主要产品 围绕此建立网络 定位公司 |
| 1286 | Really lead in the area for decades to come okay? | 在未来几十年里,这里真的领先 |
| 1287 | So you think ultimately there'll just be a lot of revenue from these products, and so they'll be self-funding and fairly short order | 所以,你认为最终会 有很多收入 从这些产品, 所以他们会是自筹资金 和相当短的订单 |
| 1288 | Yeah, I mean that's a much shorter answer than mine | 是啊,我的意思是,这是一个 更短的答案比我 |
| 1289 | The question was are we going to be able to make money from this | 问题是我们能从中赚钱吗? |
| 1290 | Yeah, the answer better be yes | 是啊,答案最好是肯定的 |
| 1291 | But the history is very front-loaded expense right well the history of AI is an industry | 但是,历史是非常前置的费用 正确的是,AI的历史是一个行业 |
| 1292 | I think to some degree is like you know people have always sort of been hand-wringing about you know | 我想在某种程度上 就像你知道 人们总是 有点手摇手摇 你知道 |
| 1293 | How are these businesses gonna make money? | 这些生意怎么赚钱? |
| 1294 | Yeah, and I think you know every year | 是啊,我想你每年都知道 |
| 1295 | People are sort of generally surprised the outside of that super intelligence is is a useful | 人们总觉得很惊讶 超级智能的外在是有用的 |
| 1296 | Yeah, this is kind of metas whole playbook | 是啊,这是一种metas整个游戏本 |
| 1297 | As we we build something we get it to a billion people then we scale the revenue while | 当我们建造一些东西,我们得到它 10亿人 然后我们放大收入,同时 |
| 1298 | Growing our revenue primarily in the meantime by continuing to scale the things that are already kind of at scale and growing | 主要通过继续扩大已经规模和增长的事物来增加收入 |
| 1299 | Yeah, I was also one of the dynamics like I think | 是的,我也是 动态之一,就像我想 |
| 1300 | You know I think Darius talked about this as well | 你知道,我觉得大流士 谈到这一点 |
| 1301 | But like just in general because it requires so much advanced planning to build | 但就像一般的,因为它需要 这么多的高级规划建设 |
| 1302 | These models like if you look at the R&D expense in any given time that is like over in overlapping R&D expense of | 这些模型就像如果你在任何特定时间内 研究与开发费用 与重叠的研究与开发费用一样 |
| 1303 | Multiple model generations at once yes, and you know these they require a long time to work on and then ultimately | 多个模范一代一时是的,你知道 他们需要很长的时间工作,然后最终 |
| 1304 | You know you see like immense payoff when when you ultimately deliver them | 你知道,你看到巨大的回报 当你最终交付他们 |
| 1305 | And this is kind of what we saw with the muse spark family of models like yeah | 这就是我们看到的 与缪斯火花家庭 像模特儿一样 |
| 1306 | you know again, we started working on these a long time ago and | 再说一遍 我们很久前就开始研究了 |
| 1307 | Seeing like incredible consumer adoption through the news product the other thing is that we use the models to explore a core business | 从新闻产品上看 消费者的收养是不可思议的 另一回事就是 我们利用模型来探索核心业务 |
| 1308 | Right so when you have this core business | 好吧,当你有 核心业务 |
| 1309 | That's hundreds of billions of dollars and still growing extremely quickly and now like if you can grow it a few percent faster by using | 几千亿美元,而且增长仍然非常迅速 现在,如果你能通过使用 更快地增长几率 |
| 1310 | These models to accelerate these things then that ends up funding a huge amount of this too is your scaling it out | 这些模式可以加速这些事情, 最终也为大量的资金提供资金, 也就是你的推广。 |
| 1311 | The meta core business is a is a like eighth wonder of the world | 元核心生意是世界第八奇迹 |
| 1312 | It's an extremely good really is quite quite incredible and is growing it | 这是极好的 真的 相当不可思议 并且正在成长 |
| 1313 | Sort of it. | 有点 |
| 1314 | You know astonishing rates | 你知道惊人的比率 |
| 1315 | Yeah, yeah, you guys really cooked with that | 是啊,是啊,你们真的煮 用这个 |
| 1316 | Yeah, I think you're also getting at something Alex | 是啊,我想你也 在得到的东西亚历克斯 |
| 1317 | Which is like there's an interesting accounting artifact where if you go build a data center | 这就像有一个有趣的 会计文物 如果你去建造一个数据中心 |
| 1318 | You have capex and you get to depreciate that over a useful life of many years and people debate | 你有卡佩克斯,你得到 贬值,在多年的使用寿命 人们辩论 |
| 1319 | You know what that useful life is but the point is you do get to depreciate us | 你知道什么是有用的生命,但关键是 你确实得到 贬低我们 |
| 1320 | A lot of the AI costs are also just in researcher salaries and those salaries are being spent on you know model training | 很多人工智能费用也只是研究者的工资 而这些工资都花在了你知道的模范训练上 |
| 1321 | Thus also has a useful life of many years, but you do not get to capitalize generally | 因此,使用寿命也很多年,但一般不能利用 |
| 1322 | That's that's also a financial advantage for us building out the data centers as opposed to a bunch of the other companies that are paying | 这对我们建立数据中心来说 也是一种经济优势 而不是其他那些付钱的公司 |
| 1323 | Clouds, but as they're paying the annual rate, but then at some point the | 云,但当他们支付 年率,但之后的某个时候 |
| 1324 | The GPUs will be fully depreciated | GPU将全部折旧 |
| 1325 | but we're probably still going to be using them for a while because they I mean the value of like | 但我们可能要用一段时间 因为它们意味着喜欢的价值 |
| 1326 | even like an h100 at this point is higher than it was last year right just because if compute continues being constrained, so | 甚至像现在的h100 比去年还高 仅仅因为如果计算 继续受到限制,所以 |
| 1327 | Yeah, I think it's yeah, I think any advice for us with open router | 是的,我想是的,我想任何建议 我们开放的路由器 |
| 1328 | You know we have agreed to acquire them. | 你知道,我们已经同意 获得它们。 |
| 1329 | It has not closed yet. | 它尚未关闭。 |
| 1330 | Yeah, I think I think | 是的,我觉得 |
| 1331 | You know part of the exciting | 你知道一部分令人兴奋 |
| 1332 | Part of what is what we're starting to see in terms of the models | 我们开始看到的模型的一部分 |
| 1333 | Especially the frontier models that are being developed like news wonder versus let's say a fable or an Astra | 特别是边疆模式, 正在开发 像新闻奇异 和让我们说一个寓言或 Astra |
| 1334 | Is that we actually are starting to focus quite? | 我们真的开始专心了吗? |
| 1335 | In quite different directions from the other models | 在相当不同的方向 与其他模型 |
| 1336 | And I think there's a lot of intentionality that goes in the model development process that we've discussed as part of this | 我认为在模型开发过程中, 有很多的故意行为, 我们讨论过作为这个的一部分 |
| 1337 | You know in this conversation that is genuinely different from how other models are focusing | 你知道在这场谈话中 与其他模特儿的专注 完全不同 |
| 1338 | And so you know when these models kind of get collapsed to the same set of benchmarks that | 所以你知道当这些模型崩溃 到了同样的基准 |
| 1339 | elides all of the this is a good point the interesting sort of like | eliides 所有这一切都是一个好点 有趣的类型喜欢 |
| 1340 | Texture that differs between the various models, and so I think one thing that is an exciting opportunity for open router generally speaking is like you know | 不同型号的纹理不同, 所以我认为一件事 是一个激动人心的机会 开放路由器 总的来说,就像你知道的 |
| 1341 | helping to | 帮助 |
| 1342 | Helping developers understand what these sort of subtle differences are so that they can make the most informed decisions about what models | 帮助开发者理解这些微妙的区别是什么 以便他们能做出最明智的决定 |
| 1343 | Ultimately they select and then also you can imagine the flip side of that which is you know | 最终他们选择,然后你也可以想象 翻转的一面,你知道 |
| 1344 | You have all these developers using these models | 这些开发者都使用这些模型 |
| 1345 | And so those developers are great people to ask about what are the interesting textual differences between these models that are like more | 因此,这些开发者是伟大的人 问,这些模型之间有趣的文字差异是什么 |
| 1346 | You know more than just like tweet length like this models good this models bad like you know more than just that level of | 你知道更多 不只是像微博长度 像这些模型好 这个模型坏 像你知道更多 |
| 1347 | Insight and I think this is like a you're getting to the wine sommelier | 洞察力和我想这就像一个 你得到的酒sommelier |
| 1348 | You know version or form of understanding the models, and they're sort of like relative strengths and weaknesses | 你知道版本 或理解模型的形式, 它们有点像 相对强弱 |
| 1349 | I think would be quite exciting okay | 我觉得会很刺激的 |
| 1350 | Based on your experience the open router view that there will be a diversity of models in the future | 根据你的经验 开放式路由器的观点 未来会有多种模式 |
| 1351 | And they're optimized for different tasks, and I agree with that exactly that's just your guys experience based on yeah | 他们被优化 不同的任务, 我同意 这恰恰是你的人的经验 基于是的 |
| 1352 | Like we we are focusing on different things. | 就像我们把注意力集中在不同的事情上一样。 |
| 1353 | We don't care a lot more about personal professional agents | 我们更不关心私人职业特工 |
| 1354 | Yes, my observation than the other major labs | 是的,我的观察 比其他主要的实验室 |
| 1355 | Which is good like there should be differentiation in the economy. | 经济应该有所区别 |
| 1356 | This is like the point of capitalism to some extent | 这在某种程度上就像资本主义的观点 |
| 1357 | So | 这么说 |
| 1358 | No, I just really agree with that point | 不,我真的同意这一点 |
| 1359 | I mean | 我是说 |
| 1360 | I think that part of what I love about you guys working on open router and being able to scale it is | 我觉得我喜欢你们在开路由器上工作 并且能够放大的部分 |
| 1361 | It just the more infrastructure that can get developed that supports a diversity of players in the ecosystem | 它只是更多的基础设施 可以得到开发 支持多样性的 生态系统参与者 |
| 1362 | I think is good overall. | 我认为总的来说是好的。 |
| 1363 | I also for the same reason and | 我也出于同样的原因 |
| 1364 | Quite a fan of some of the recent and video moves to support the open source ecosystem | 热衷于支持开源生态系统的近期和视频动作 |
| 1365 | No, but this just kind of goes with our whole theory and philosophy about like what is a good future look like we think | 没有,但这只是符合 我们的整个理论和哲学 关于什么是一个美好的未来 看起来像我们认为 |
| 1366 | That a good future is one where you achieve a like like you basically get prosperity by empowering people | 一个美好的未来 就是你通过增强人们的能力 实现你这样的繁荣 |
| 1367 | So it's kind of the personal superintelligence thing that we're doing, but there's the whole business version | 所以,这是一种个人 超级智能的事情,我们正在做, 但有整个商业版本 |
| 1368 | But for a lot of the important safety topics like our view is that the way to get there is having a | 但是,对于很多重要的安全话题,比如我们的看法是 到达那里的方式是有一个 |
| 1369 | Diversity and having checks and balances by kind of having a lot of different things out there and accessible to people | 多样性和有制衡,因为那里有很多不同的事物,人们可以使用 |
| 1370 | Not like just having a couple of good models that are only in a couple companies hands. | 不只是几个好模特 只在几家公司手上 |
| 1371 | I think that that would be | 我认为,这将是 |
| 1372 | from my perspective, I think that is | 从我的观点来看 我认为 |
| 1373 | probably a riskier | 可能更冒险 |
| 1374 | Configuration for the future. | 未来配置 。 |
| 1375 | Yes, then | 对,那么 |
| 1376 | Then lots of people having access to different things | 然后很多人可以接触不同的东西 |
| 1377 | Do you guys have a theory as to why that is where I feel like maybe people predicted? | 你们有理论吗? 为什么这就是我的感觉 也许人们预测到的地方? |
| 1378 | More of a winner-takes-all dynamic in AI or one person clearly like a story that people told back in 2023 | 更像是AI里一个赢家的动画 或者是一个人 明显像2023年人们说的故事 |
| 1379 | Is that one AI lab will start to develop an advantage and that will allow them to get recursive self-improvement going | 一个人工智能实验室将开始开发一个优势 让他们可以进行自修 |
| 1380 | And then they'll just pull further and further away from everyone else. | 然后他们就会越来越远离其他人 |
| 1381 | Whereas it has | 虽然它已经 |
| 1382 | Remained extremely competitive where there's kind of multiple people at the frontier you guys with wonder today are you know coming along with your | 仍然极具竞争力 在边境上有很多人 你们今天很奇异 |
| 1383 | Frontier class model open source models have done an impressive job of keeping up all told | 边疆类模型开源模型 做了一个令人印象深刻的工作 保持所有被告知 |
| 1384 | And so we had this story a few years ago that someone was just going to run away with the prize | 我们几年前有个故事 说有人要带着奖品逃跑 |
| 1385 | Why hasn't that happened? | 为什么没发生? |
| 1386 | I think there's a lot of | 我觉得有很多 |
| 1387 | underlying reasons and mechanics that that drive this like one certainly is just | 根本原因和力学 驱动这样的一个当然是 |
| 1388 | execution like I think | 就像我想的那样 |
| 1389 | You know there for any given frontier lab there are periods of strong execution and weak execution and I think you know | 你知道,对于任何特定的前沿实验室, 有一段时间 强处决和弱处决 我想你知道 |
| 1390 | That is true across all the labs. | 所有实验室都是这样 |
| 1391 | And so that's sort of like, you know starts to average itself out over time | 所以,这有点像, 你知道开始 自我平均 一段时间 |
| 1392 | I think another diplomatic | 我认为另一个外交 |
| 1393 | So, yeah, is it that like some of the players in the lead screwed up I | 所以,是的,它是像一些 玩家在领先 搞砸了我。 |
| 1394 | Think well, I think if all players when they were in the lead executed perfectly they would probably be able to stay in the lead | 仔细想想,我认为,如果所有玩家 当他们处于领先状态时 被完美地执行 他们可能能够保持领先 |
| 1395 | So I think that's one factor | 所以,我认为这是一个因素 |
| 1396 | I think | 我觉得 |
| 1397 | The the power and strength of distillation is certainly another factor that's really benefiting the open-source ecosystem quite a bit | 蒸馏的能量和强度 无疑是另一个真正有利于开源生态系统的因素 |
| 1398 | I think this is just like a there's an anti | 我觉得这就像一个有反 |
| 1399 | Hegemonic force in the phenomenon of distilling a model | 蒸馏模型现象中的重力 |
| 1400 | Yeah, and and this is just a quality of the technology like I don't think nobody it's not like anyone planned for distillation to work | 是啊,这只是一个质量 技术,就像我不认为任何人 它不是像任何人计划 蒸馏工作 |
| 1401 | Super duper well, but it just turns out that you can pack, you know, you can get a lot of capabilities | 超级酒保的好,但事实证明 你可以打包,你知道, 你可以得到很多能力 |
| 1402 | Naturally through some form of distillation and and and this is you know | 自然通过某种蒸馏 和,这是你知道的 |
| 1403 | broadly speaking distillation is quite a good force for the entire ecosystem because it means that you can pack like | 从广义上讲,蒸馏对于整个生态系统来说是相当好的力量,因为它意味着你可以像包装一样包装。 |
| 1404 | Very strong intelligence capabilities into smaller and smaller models | 将非常强大的情报能力转化为较小的模型 |
| 1405 | Which enables us to serve them at much wider scale and that's certainly like one of the very exciting stories | 这让我们能更大规模地为它们服务 这当然像一个非常令人兴奋的故事 |
| 1406 | It's just like really small models today are like, you know much more powerful than the than the biggest models a year ago or two | 这就像真正的小 模型今天是喜欢, 你知道比 最大的模型 比一年或两年前 |
| 1407 | years ago | 数年前 |
| 1408 | and then I think the last is that there's just sort of this um, I think there's like I actually think a lot of | 然后,我想最后一点是, 只是有种 这个嗯,我想有 像我真的想了很多 |
| 1409 | people in the ecosystem | 生态系统中的人 |
| 1410 | Want this future where there it is not just this like, you know | 想要这个未来,那里不只有这样,你知道的 |
| 1411 | Definitely one final company in all of capitalism | 绝对是所有资本主义的最后一家公司 |
| 1412 | Kind of kind of and outcome like I think this is one of the reasons not just individuals but companies putting dollars against things | 我觉得这不光是个人的原因 也是公司用美元对付事物的原因之一 |
| 1413 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1414 | Yeah, and I and I think like, you know | 是啊,我和我想,喜欢,你知道 |
| 1415 | This is actually one of the reasons why a lot of people were excited to join meta | 这其实是很多人兴奋起来加入meta的原因之一 |
| 1416 | and meta super intelligence labs in the first place was that they were just sort of like, you know, I | 和一个超级智能实验室 一开始是 他们只是那种,你知道,我 |
| 1417 | Want to work at a place that is focused on giving this technology to billions of people that is like not the stated goal | 想要在一个集中力量给数十亿人 提供这种技术的地方工作,而这种技术不是既定的目标 |
| 1418 | necessarily of all the other frontier labs and so I think there's like a lot of sort of just like natural forces where | 一定是其他的前沿实验室 所以我觉得有很多自然力量 |
| 1419 | many people in the industry are sort of like grappling with okay, what I what is the actual world state that I want to live in in the | 这个行业的很多人都喜欢 努力与好, 我是什么 真实的世界状态,我想生活在 |
| 1420 | future and | 未来和 |
| 1421 | there's lots of sort of like | 有很多类似 |
| 1422 | decisions that people make at all levels in terms of where they work or who they do business with or what business deals they do | 各级人民在工作地点、与谁做生意或从事何种商业交易方面作出的决定 |
| 1423 | That's sort of like drive towards a more equalized outcome. | 这有点像推动 一个更平等的结果。 |
| 1424 | You're getting to the | 你即将到达 |
| 1425 | Some of the MSL startup which I also want to ask about which is it just seems fundamentally very hard still to | 有些MSL的启动,我也想问一下 究竟哪一个 根本上还很难做到 |
| 1426 | Again, we talked about what goes into developing a frontier model, but also | 我们再次谈到如何发展前沿模式,但也谈到 |
| 1427 | From a standing start like when was the standing start for MSL? | 从一个站立的开始,像什么时候 站在MSL的开始? |
| 1428 | Well, we launched | 我们开机了 |
| 1429 | Llama for on April 4th, I think it was | 4月4日的拉玛,我想是 |
| 1430 | 2025 and | 2025年和2025年 |
| 1431 | then | 接下来 |
| 1432 | I think was it April 20th | 我想是四月二十号 |
| 1433 | or 21st was I think when I was like hey when I when I | 或者21岁的时候,我想 当我像嘿,当我 |
| 1434 | When I started calling people for advice | 当我开始呼吁人们的建议 |
| 1435 | Okay, what to do so I remember I was I was in a staff meeting and I got like the whatsapp notification like | 好吧,怎么办,所以我记得我是在 员工会议,我得到了喜欢什么 app通知喜欢 |
| 1436 | After I'm for call I was like, huh? | 我打完电话后,我就像,是吧? |
| 1437 | Interesting, okay. | 有意思,好吗? |
| 1438 | So MSL is a little over two years old. | 所以MSL是2年多一点。 |
| 1439 | What do you know one year one year? | 你知道一年一年吗? |
| 1440 | You did 25? | 你做了25个? |
| 1441 | MSL is a little over one year old. | MSL有点超过一年。 |
| 1442 | And yeah, what are your reflections a little over a year in on? | 对,你一年多的反射是什么? |
| 1443 | What was load-bearing as the eyes would say in how it came together | 眼睛会说些什么? |
| 1444 | Well, I mean, I think that there's this whole thing early on which is just like first we had to pull together this core group | 嗯,我的意思是,我认为有 整个事情的早期, 这就像我们第一次 召集这个核心组 |
| 1445 | right, so | 对,所以 |
| 1446 | So not and Alex and I we were like talking a bit up front | 所以不要和亚历克斯和我 我们就像在前面说话 |
| 1447 | and | 和 |
| 1448 | You know at first we were | 你知道我们一开始 |
| 1449 | Brainstorming yeah, like I was talking to Nat about could we is there a way that we can like structure this? | 集思广益 是的 就像我和纳特说的 我们可以有办法来安排吗? |
| 1450 | So it's like a win for Alex's shareholders and like we can like get them over here and then so then we were talking about | 所以,这就像一个胜利 亚历克斯的股东, 像我们可以让他们 在这里,然后我们谈论 |
| 1451 | like what would the plan be and | 像什么是计划 和 |
| 1452 | And then basically I was just I was in this mode where I was just like asking a lot of different people what we should | 基本上,我只是在 这种模式,我只是想问 很多不同的人,我们应该 |
| 1453 | Do and like every time | 每次都这样 |
| 1454 | That that we would talk | 说我们要谈谈 |
| 1455 | I'd come away with like three more things of like, oh, yeah, this is what we should do | 我会带着三样东西离开, 哦,是的,这是我们应该做的 |
| 1456 | it's like very like high signal very like a lot of strategic clarity and | 这就像非常像高信号 非常像很多 战略清晰度和 |
| 1457 | So we were brainstorming and working on this for a bit and then that and Daniel joined and we pulled together a few of the | 于是我们开始集思广益 并研究了一下 然后丹尼尔加入了我们 |
| 1458 | Initial researchers but like in the beginning it was sort of like the supernova thing where we just kind of like jammed a bunch of | 最初的研究者,但就像一开始, 它有点像超新星的事情 我们只是有点像卡住了一堆 |
| 1459 | People together and I don't know. | 人们在一起 我不知道。 |
| 1460 | It's like I like I don't think either of us slept that much for the first couple of months | 我觉得我们头几个月都睡不着觉 |
| 1461 | I like don't even I don't like I kind of this mental block almost where I like I kind of almost um | 我喜欢不 甚至不喜欢我 那种精神障碍 几乎我喜欢的地方 那种我几乎嗯 |
| 1462 | cleared my | 清净我 |
| 1463 | Calendar for like a month or two and was just meeting | 一两个月的日历,只是开会而已 |
| 1464 | Researchers and talking to them and I remember even before we announced the deal where you were gonna come over | 研究人员和他们交谈 我记得在我们宣布协议之前 |
| 1465 | We were basically like you were recruiting people people like what is going on like that's like, what is this? | 我们基本上就像你在招募人一样 像现在这样,这是什么? |
| 1466 | But | 不过 |
| 1467 | But then there was the whole question which was a really hands-on data labeling | 但接下来是整个问题 一个真正的操作数据标签 |
| 1468 | But but that was that was this whole question to where it's like, all right | 但是,这就是整个问题 到它是什么样子,所有的权利 |
| 1469 | Well, like, okay | 嗯,像,好吗 |
| 1470 | So if we're not happy with the trajectory of the current program like who were the right set of people | 所以,如果我们不满意 当前的方案轨迹 像谁是正确的人群 |
| 1471 | to lead the program going forward and you know Alex I had spent a bunch of time talking over the years and maybe like whatever once | 领导节目向前发展 你知道亚历克斯... ...我花了很多时间... ... |
| 1472 | every few months or something we'd talk and I was always just very impressed by how he thought about things strategically and | 每隔几个月什么的,我们会谈论, 我总是非常深刻的印象 他如何思考 战略, |
| 1473 | And I kind of had this view of like alright. | 我也有这种感觉 |
| 1474 | Yeah, currently he's doing this this very operational data business | 是的,目前他正在做这个非常 操作性的数据业务 |
| 1475 | But it always felt to me like | 但我总觉得 |
| 1476 | he was | 他曾经是 |
| 1477 | The sharpest entrepreneur of his generation of the ones who I had had a chance to to meet and | 他那一代最尖锐的企业家 我曾经有机会遇到过 |
| 1478 | and | 和 |
| 1479 | Like it always just struck me. | 就像它总是打我。 |
| 1480 | It's like alright, like this is a guy who yeah | 碞钩琌 |
| 1481 | He's like running this like kind of very grindy operational business, but like lovely business still by the way, what's up? | 他就像在经营这 那种非常磨碎的业务, 但像可爱的生意 顺便说一句,怎么样? |
| 1482 | We're big investors | 我们是大投资者 |
| 1483 | There was more commentary on the on the difficulty of running the business | 关于经营企业的困难,有较多的评论。 |
| 1484 | The world a lot of businesses look like a grindy operation | 世界上有很多企业 看起来像一个磨盘操作 |
| 1485 | It's not it's just like my view | 跟我的观点不一样 |
| 1486 | No, no, no | 没有,没有,没有 |
| 1487 | but | 不过 |
| 1488 | No, so it's uh | 没有,所以是... |
| 1489 | so I just kind of had this room like all right, like like even though this is sort of I | 所以,我只是有种 这个房间像所有的权利, 喜欢,即使这有点我 |
| 1490 | Think maybe when we got started a lot of people were like, okay, like how is this gonna work? | 也许当我们开始 很多人喜欢,好吧, 像这会如何工作? |
| 1491 | it's like the kind of like the | 这就像那种 |
| 1492 | Social media guy is working with the like data guy | 社交媒体的人在和数据人合作 |
| 1493 | like is that like are we gonna build a frontier lab here or what but but I mean but my but I mean my | 就像我们要在这里建一个前沿实验室一样 但是我的意思是... |
| 1494 | like really strong conviction because I talked to like all the leaders of all the labs like all the heads of research like | 就像很坚定的信念 因为我喜欢所有实验室的领导 |
| 1495 | All this stuff and like I was like no Alex is the guy like he's the fucking guy and like and we're gonna and basically | 所有这一切,就像我像没有亚历克斯 的家伙像他他妈的家伙,喜欢,我们要去 基本上 |
| 1496 | like we're gonna basically be able to | 就像我们基本上可以 |
| 1497 | to to go pull together a team and recruit the the people that we need to go do this and | 去召集一个团队 招募我们需要去的人 |
| 1498 | We need this kind of very | 我们需要这种非常 |
| 1499 | This kind of like strategic clarity that he has around the the different ways that we want to approach this the kind of extreme focus on | 这就像战略清晰度,他有 不同的方法,我们想要处理 |
| 1500 | talent density on | 有关人才密度 |
| 1501 | On kind of like the clarity of communicating the different vision which we kind of fashioned together over this period | 在那种清晰的沟通 不同的视觉 我们所塑造的这个时期 |
| 1502 | and a bunch of things that I think were | 和一堆我认为是 |
| 1503 | kind of extreme but have | 那种极端,但有 |
| 1504 | Basically worked like having this | 基本上是这样工作的 |
| 1505 | This like very flat culture was something that you were kind of really obsessed with right? | 这就像非常平坦的文化 是那种你真的很迷恋 对不对? |
| 1506 | It's I mean you have like was it almost 200 direct reports. | 我是说你好像有近200个直接报告 |
| 1507 | That's like we had it's not | 这就像我们有它不是 |
| 1508 | It's not quite that extreme in practice. | 实践上没那么极端 |
| 1509 | I think there's like my team leads and all and all the stuff my news helps me manage them | 我觉得有像我的团队领导 和所有的东西 我的消息帮助我管理他们 |
| 1510 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1511 | but like but there were these series of things that I think quite early we | 但喜欢,但有 这些系列的事情 我认为很早 |
| 1512 | you kind of articulated and I was like | 你有点清晰,我就像 |
| 1513 | Okay, this is like kind of extreme but | 好吧,这就像一种极端但 |
| 1514 | It seems like directionally right and like we should go do this and you know | 似乎方向正确,而且我们应该去做这个 你知道 |
| 1515 | I went and like talked to other people or more like the people you'd conventionally | 我过去喜欢和其他人说话 或者更像那些你习惯的人 |
| 1516 | Yeah, think of and it's like it was just very much like I don't know what you'd expect like a big company to operate | 是啊,想想看,这就像它 只是非常像我不知道你期望什么 像一个大公司经营 |
| 1517 | I was like, no, this is we got it | 我当时想,不,这是我们得到了它。 |
| 1518 | We want to do something that's as you describe this on those four things that I think even other | 我们想做一些事情 正如你描述这 这四件事 我认为,甚至其他 |
| 1519 | opinionated effective founder CEOs would not have done | 有意见的创始人CEO不会这么做的 |
| 1520 | One you just called the recent prior efforts by a bunch of | 一个你刚才所说的 最近的努力 由一群 |
| 1521 | People at the company a failure and not good enough. | 公司里的人失败了 不够好 |
| 1522 | I mean you're more diplomatic than that, but the active standing | 我的意思是,你比这更外交, 但积极的地位 |
| 1523 | trajectory | 轨迹 |
| 1524 | But the active standing up MSL, you know people can read between the lines | 但主动站起来的MSL, 你知道人们可以在行间阅读 |
| 1525 | So sometimes yeah, yeah, sometimes you have to reboot a team. | 所以,有时是的,是的, 有时你必须重启一个团队。 |
| 1526 | That's one | 就是这个 |
| 1527 | Thing two is you were willing to pay | 第二点是你愿意付钱 |
| 1528 | Ungodly amounts of money for effectively talent like you're paying a lot of money to bring Alex and some other people but you know | 高贵的人才,就像你花了很多钱 带亚历克斯和其他一些人来,但你知道的 |
| 1529 | Yeah, a lot of money for for Alex in particular | 是啊,很多钱 亚历克斯特别 |
| 1530 | over and | 结束 |
| 1531 | King three and 49% of this very good grindy business | 国王3和49%的 非常好的磨坊生意 |
| 1532 | Let's keep the story | 我们继续讲故事吧 |
| 1533 | So that thing three is I'll notice Alex had never | 所以第三件事是 我会注意到Alex从来没有 |
| 1534 | Trained a frontier model before and so you were taking some amount of a bet on | 之前训练过边疆模特儿 所以你要下注 |
| 1535 | Alex's potential to do something where he had like done the stuff in AI | 亚历克斯的潜质 做一些他喜欢的事情 在AI做的东西 |
| 1536 | But like no offense you just had not done the specific thing that you were being hired to do and then fourth | 但无意冒犯,你只是没有做 具体的事情,你被雇用做,然后第四 |
| 1537 | You were saying you cleared your calendar and just only did this for two months | 你说你清理了日历 只做了两个月 |
| 1538 | I think a lot of CEOs would have had the business review and would have had the board thing and they would have had the you | 我认为很多CEO会有 业务审查, 和有董事会的事情 他们有你 |
| 1539 | Know customer stuff and things like that. | 了解顾客之类的东西 |
| 1540 | Those four seem to me pretty | 这四个人看起来挺漂亮的 |
| 1541 | Interesting where I think a lot of CEOs would not have done those | 我觉得很多CEO不会这么做 |
| 1542 | Interesting, I definitely think I mean one thing you may not appreciate this by yourself | 有意思,我肯定认为我的意思是 你可能不欣赏这件事 |
| 1543 | but I think one thing that is quite special about mark is | 但我认为马克最特别的是 |
| 1544 | the degree to which like once he concludes that | 当他得出这样的结论时 |
| 1545 | Something is the right thing or something makes sense. | 某种东西是正确的事情 或有道理的东西。 |
| 1546 | He just like | 他只是喜欢 |
| 1547 | fully shifts everything to be consistent with that belief set and | 完全改变一切 符合这个信念和 |
| 1548 | It is quite like to your point | 和你说的差不多 |
| 1549 | I think like the inertia of most even six very successful founders who like are opinionated in an edgy or whatnot would just be to like | 我认为,就像大多数六位非常成功的创始人的惰性, 他们喜欢在一种情绪或什么不会只是喜欢 |
| 1550 | Oh, I still have like my whole calendar and like so I'll just like talk about doing this thing and hope that somebody does | 哦,我还有我的整个日历 喜欢,所以我只想谈谈 做这件事,希望有人做 |
| 1551 | It's kind of kind of situation. | 这是一种情况。 |
| 1552 | Whereas I think | 我觉得 |
| 1553 | No, I think when mark concludes that something is the thing he has to do or makes a lot of sense | 不,我想当马克认为 事情是 他必须做的事 或有很多道理 |
| 1554 | then he really does like | 然后他真的喜欢 |
| 1555 | He's like maybe very high learning rate in that sense | 从这个意义上讲,他可能学习率很高 |
| 1556 | like he's very willing to like pivot entire things to be consistent with it and | 就像他非常愿意把整个事情 都切入其中 |
| 1557 | And I think that like, you know | 我觉得,就像,你知道 |
| 1558 | one very underappreciated thing is the degree to which so much of the company had to pivot to support MSL as well like I | 公司这么多人 都不得不支持MSL的程度 就像我一样 |
| 1559 | think that | 认为 |
| 1560 | while it was a | 当它是一个 |
| 1561 | Kind of like this more startupy effort within a larger company, you know that the needs of | 喜欢在更大的公司里 做这种更新颖的工作 你知道的 |
| 1562 | MSL were still quite large like we needed a huge amount of help on infrastructure | MSL仍然很大,就像我们需要大量基础设施帮助 |
| 1563 | We needed these large-scale data centers to be built. | 我们需要建造这些大型数据中心。 |
| 1564 | We needed like lots of support from many other parts of the company | 我们需要公司许多其他部门的支持 |
| 1565 | And especially as muse has been successful. | 尤其是因为缪斯已经成功。 |
| 1566 | We've also needed lots of yeah collaborate deep collaboration with the rest of the company | 我们还需要很多和公司其他人合作 |
| 1567 | And this is one thing that I think | 我想这是一件事 |
| 1568 | like kind of only is possible because mark is the founder CEO like and he can ensure that | 因为马克是创始人CEO 他可以确保 |
| 1569 | We have kind of like a global optimization towards this | 我们有种全球优化 |
| 1570 | This sort of like AI maximalist version of meta versus like the natural inertia of an organization towards like, you know | 这就像AI的最大版本的元 和像一个组织的自然惰性 |
| 1571 | Just local optimization ad infinitum, but it's also a lot of how we work together is | 只是局部优化 广告无限, 但这也是很多 我们如何合作 |
| 1572 | It's important to me to be in the details of this work | 这件事对我很重要 一定要详谈 |
| 1573 | So that we can get everything around the company to go do what we need to do, right? | 这样我们就可以让公司周围的一切 都去做我们需要做的,对不对? |
| 1574 | And so it's like I mean, yeah, I'll have opinions about this stuff | 所以,这就像我的意思,是的, 我会有关于这些东西的意见 |
| 1575 | But I'm not like I'm not the lead researcher, right? | 但我不是首席研究员,对吧? |
| 1576 | It's like it's you know, it's um | 这就像你知道,这是嗯 |
| 1577 | but I think that's kind of a lot of I think how we work together well is that | 但我觉得我们合作得很好 |
| 1578 | yeah, it's I mean we're kind of like quite in the details of all of this stuff, but | 是啊,我的意思是,我们有点像 在细节 所有这些东西,但 |
| 1579 | You know running the lab is a big thing running the rest of the company in order to support | 你知道经营实验室是大事情 管理公司的其他部分 为了支持 |
| 1580 | This is like the effort is a big thing | 这就像努力是一件大事 |
| 1581 | You almost like you can't really get this done | 你几乎是无法真正完成这一切的 |
| 1582 | I think without both of those pieces and and one thing that I think was | 我想没有这些片段 还有一件我认为是 |
| 1583 | quite important about when we set the whole thing up is you know, we | 相当重要的是,当我们 设置整个事情是 你知道,我们 |
| 1584 | Meta the company invested a huge amount to stand up MSL and then we we very clearly told everyone like hey | Meta公司投资了大笔钱 来支撑MSL 然后我们非常明确地告诉大家喜欢嘿嘿 |
| 1585 | There's no deadlines. | 没有最后期限。 |
| 1586 | We are going to take things at the right pace | 我们要以正确的速度处理事情 |
| 1587 | Which I think on the one hand could be like, you know | 我认为一方面 可能是像,你知道 |
| 1588 | Absolutely terrifying is like you've just have like sort of this extremely expensive unit and you're telling everyone like hey | 绝对是可怕的 就像你刚刚有 那种非常昂贵的单位 你告诉大家喜欢嘿嘿。 |
| 1589 | And you're worried inside a larger company that like okay seven years from now. | 你担心的是,在一个更大的公司里, 7年后还不错。 |
| 1590 | Maybe something will ship, right? | 也许有东西会运送,对吧? |
| 1591 | Yeah, totally | 是啊,当然 |
| 1592 | But I think that like first I think one of the cool things about you know | 但我认为,首先,我想一个很酷的事情 关于你知道的 |
| 1593 | Focusing on talent density and hiring all these very brilliant people have done so much already | 专注于人才密度和雇用所有这些非常聪明的人 已经做了这么多 |
| 1594 | This very impressive is you know, everybody had like a lot of | 这令人印象深刻的是,你知道, 每个人都像很多 |
| 1595 | motivation to ship and and everybody wanted to sort of like leave their mark so to speak on the field and so | 开船的动机 每个人都想留下印记 |
| 1596 | Everybody was like heavily highly self-motivated to to move as quickly as possible | 每个人就像非常有自我动机 尽快行动 |
| 1597 | and one of the things that's that's been funny and I've had to | 还有一件很有趣的事情 我不得不 |
| 1598 | Continue reminding the team of is like, you know, it is a team of of a lot of | 继续提醒球队 就像,你知道,这是一个团队 很多 |
| 1599 | insecure overachievers | 不安全的过度成就者 |
| 1600 | So like at any one point if I ask them like hey, how good do you think? | 如果我问他们,你觉得怎么样? |
| 1601 | Where do you think will be in three months? | 你觉得三个月后会在哪里? |
| 1602 | I always get the most like everyone always it's awful | 我总是像大家一样 总是很糟 |
| 1603 | We're like these like very pessimistic answers and then I record it and I like three months later | 我们就像这些非常悲观的答案 然后我录下来,我喜欢三个月后 |
| 1604 | I'm like, hey, you know, we just shipped this model | 我很喜欢,嘿,你知道, 我们刚运了这个模型 |
| 1605 | Let me just show you what all of you said | 让我给你们看看你们都说了什么 |
| 1606 | Where all of you said we would be in three three months ago and | 你们都说我们三个月前到的地方 |
| 1607 | And this has that caused them to get any more optimistic or no, they're still they're very self-critical | 这使得他们更加乐观或没有, 他们仍然非常自我批评 |
| 1608 | I think it's it's not it's not that they're pessimistic about I | 我觉得不是他们对我感到悲观 |
| 1609 | Think that the average person seems quite optimistic about MSL and very self-critical about their own project | 想想普通人似乎对MSL相当乐观 对自己的项目很自我批评 |
| 1610 | Yeah, which I think is actually quite a healthy sure a healthy dynamic | 是啊,我认为这其实是一个相当健康的确定 一个健康的动态 |
| 1611 | But but the trend continues like I think I think and and this is I mean in many ways Muse Wander is like this incredible | 但趋势还在继续 就像我想的 在许多方面 穆斯万德就像这个不可思议的 |
| 1612 | Milestone for everyone because it is a the team was very very critical. | 每个人的里程碑 因为它是一个团队 是非常关键的。 |
| 1613 | Yeah, that was working on it along the way | 是啊,这是工作 沿途 |
| 1614 | When did you guys know that Muse Wander was good? | 你们什么时候知道Muse Wander很棒的? |
| 1615 | That's a good question. | 问曰. |
| 1616 | I think that we | 我认为我们 |
| 1617 | So there's all these intermediate you're kicking in the oven and I know it seems kind of gooey still and yeah going back to it | 所以,有所有这些中间体 你踢在烤箱 我知道它似乎 一种古伊仍然,是啊回去 |
| 1618 | I mean there are all these intermediate signals that you can get along the way that things are good or bad | 我的意思是,有所有这些中间信号 你可以走的方式 事情好或坏 |
| 1619 | What are the intermediate signals? | 中间信号是什么? |
| 1620 | So in in pre-training you have a lot of perplexity based evaluation | 所以,在预训中,你有很多 迷惑性的评估 |
| 1621 | So you have a it's sort of a different regime of evals | 所以,你有一个它有点 不同的制度Evals |
| 1622 | That can help you in pre-training and then you have sort of the more traditional benchmarks that can help you towards RL | 这可以帮助你接受预训,然后你有 更传统的基准,可以帮助你走向RL |
| 1623 | But but no, I mean, it's it | 但是,不,我的意思是,这是它 |
| 1624 | I mean this model kind of was you mentioned has been cooking for quite a while and you know | 我是说你提到的模特儿 已经煮了好一阵子了 |
| 1625 | a lot of I think one of the funniest things about AI research is that you know, there's a lot of | 我认为AI研究最有趣的一件事是 你知道,有很多 |
| 1626 | there's a lot of times where people just sort of like are kind of squinting at a bunch of dots and being like | 有很多时候,人们只是 那种在一束点和像 |
| 1627 | Yeah, looks like it's good or it looks a little bit off. | 是啊,看起来很好 或者看起来有点脱落。 |
| 1628 | Like one of the funniest things is the the | 就像最有趣的东西是 |
| 1629 | people have protractors | 人们有前导器 |
| 1630 | Like like analog protractors that they put against you know | 就像他们用来对付的模拟推进器 |
| 1631 | a set of lines on their monitor to like measure an angle and then | 显示器上的一组线条喜欢测量角度然后 |
| 1632 | So I did not come for this job. | 所以我不是来做这个工作的 |
| 1633 | Yeah, so I think there's I think there's like a huge amount of like | 是的,所以我想,我觉得有 像一个巨大的数量 |
| 1634 | Like it's very there's more vibes | 感觉好像很紧张 |
| 1635 | Driving like we have this conversation where how did you know is good? | 开车像我们有这个对话 你怎么知道是好的? |
| 1636 | Well, we had this debate after his own pre-training | 我们经过他自己的前期训练 才开始辩论 |
| 1637 | Where it was okay, how long will it take in RL? | 在RL里需要多长时间? |
| 1638 | Before it is better than use spark and I remember the the folks on the pre-training team | 之前比用火花好 我记得训练前队的人 |
| 1639 | We're like just try to set expectations | и碞钩琌稱稱稱快猭 |
| 1640 | They're like look like sometimes it like this takes a while and then it was like immediately and so you're like, okay | 他们看起来像有时 像这样这样需要一段时间, 然后它就像立即, 所以你喜欢,好吗? |
| 1641 | I think I think we're like on on a good path right now that to me was was sort of yeah | 我觉得我们现在在一条好道路上 对我来说是有点对的 |
| 1642 | I think when when people got yeah, we've been excited. | 我想当人们得到是, 我们一直兴奋。 |
| 1643 | I think we've been pretty excited about for a few months now | 我觉得我们几个月来一直很兴奋 |
| 1644 | Yeah, yeah, but there's a lot to do there | 是的,是的,但有很多事情要做 在那里 |
| 1645 | But going back to the beginning I think one of the things that was very | 但回到开始,我觉得其中一件非常 |
| 1646 | interesting and in challenging and standing the thing up was like you really just wanted this like very high talent density effort and | 有趣的是,在挑战性 和站立起来 事情就像你 真正想要这一点, |
| 1647 | We were just kind of pulling some of the best people from meta in and recruiting a lot of the best people | 我们只是拉一些最好的人 从元和招募了很多最好的人 |
| 1648 | And I mean you were asking it's like alright | 我的意思是,你问它像没事 |
| 1649 | Well, like okay for people who like if you're asking for it's like it well Alex hadn't necessarily trained | 好吧,像可以的人 谁喜欢 如果你要求它就像它好 亚历克斯并不一定训练 |
| 1650 | Models like this but to me one of the big things was like all of the best people were very excited to work with him | 像这样的模特儿... ...但对我来说,其中一件大事... ...就像所有最好的人... |
| 1651 | and I think like it's I mean you I'm sure see this and all of | 我觉得这就像我是说,你 我肯定看到这个和所有 |
| 1652 | in a lot of the things that you do which is like, you know, it's like you | 在很多事情中,你做的 是喜欢,你知道, 它像你 |
| 1653 | Most people are not kind of one-dimensional, right? | 大多数人不是一维的 对吧? |
| 1654 | And yeah. | 对 |
| 1655 | Yeah, you like you maybe you do a specific thing, but | 是啊,你喜欢你 也许你做了一个具体的事情,但 |
| 1656 | but like your ability to grow and expand is kind of largely based on | 但就像你的成长和扩张能力 基本上是基于 |
| 1657 | How effectively can you like just do people who are excellent in different domains want to? | 在不同领域表现优异的人想要怎样有效? |
| 1658 | Want to come work with you on different things and the great people of followership | 想和你们一起研究不同的事物 和伟大的追随者 |
| 1659 | Yeah, but and so I think that there was there was a little bit of that | 是啊,但是,所以我认为 有一点点 |
| 1660 | But also just it's even for the people that don't know you yet or like or aren't you know? | 但即使是那些还不了解你的人 也不知道你是否了解你 |
| 1661 | Don't know what you're about. | 不知所终. |
| 1662 | Like are you | 就像你一样 |
| 1663 | Like an impressive person and a compelling person that people want to come work with | 像一个令人印象深刻的人 和令人信服的人 人们想来工作 |
| 1664 | Do people feel comfortable that you're gonna create? | 人们对你创作感到舒服吗? |
| 1665 | This environment and I think you were like very thoughtful about this early on we were kind of | 这个环境,我想你好像很周到 这么早,我们有点 |
| 1666 | Some of the stuff I think you kind of had fully formed as beliefs of how you thought we should do this | 有些东西,我想你已经完全 形成了信念,你认为我们应该怎么做 |
| 1667 | But I also remember when we were having the initial recruiting conversations. | 但我还记得我们最初的招募谈话 |
| 1668 | We were sort of in real time | 我们算是实时的 |
| 1669 | Shaping it's like okay. | 塑造如是. |
| 1670 | Well this construct that we're talking about with this person isn't quite gonna | 那么,这个构造,我们谈论 这个人是不会 |
| 1671 | Work but like they seem good and like they have this thought and it was just like like really kind of | 工作,但好像他们看起来很好, 喜欢他们有这种想法, 这就像真正的类型 |
| 1672 | Coalescing this vision about what the shape of it should be in real time | 凝聚这个想法 关于它应该是什么形状的实时 |
| 1673 | I mean, I mean, I'm sure you remember this or is like there were there were some of the the initial concepts of like | 我的意思是,我的意思是,我敢肯定,你记得这一点 或者像有 一些最初的概念 像 |
| 1674 | I mean, I think probably the most extreme thing was I think you you had the concept of the talent density and | 我的意思是,我认为可能 最极端的事情是 我想你有的概念 人才密度和 |
| 1675 | All and that kind of piece, but I think we weren't sure upfront that it was gonna have to be a full reboot, right? | 所有和那种作品, 但我认为我们不确定 它会是一个全面重启,对不对? |
| 1676 | that that basically | 这基本上 |
| 1677 | Started when we were out talking to a lot of the kind of best people and we realized that hey | 从我们出去跟很多好人聊天时开始 我们意识到 |
| 1678 | We like in order to make this as attractive as possible. | 我们喜欢尽可能的吸引人 |
| 1679 | It should feel like okay | 应该感觉很好 |
| 1680 | We're starting this thing again from scratch and yeah | 我们从头再来一次 |
| 1681 | We'll pull in a lot of the great people from from the llama effort and fair and all of that, too | 我们将吸引很多伟大的人 从拉玛的努力和公平 和这一切,太 |
| 1682 | But that was a very intentional thing that we basically figured out and that you figured out as we were out talking to the | 但这是非常有意的,我们基本上想通了 而你也想通了,当我们出去 谈话 |
| 1683 | Initial set of people like what was gonna make this compelling? | 最初的一组人 喜欢是什么会 使这个令人信服的? |
| 1684 | And it ended up being really smart and like making a huge difference in the culture of the lab and how it got and how it | 它最终变得非常聪明 就像在实验室的文化 以及它是如何得到和如何得到的 |
| 1685 | Got started, but I don't know | 已经开始了,但我不知道 |
| 1686 | It's like being able to be that dynamic about figuring out like what is the shape of this need to be that? | 这就像能够 充满活力地去想, 像这个形状需要是什么? |
| 1687 | It's not like that. | 不是那样的 |
| 1688 | I think that's a very uncommon trait. | 我认为这是一个非常不寻常的特征。 |
| 1689 | It's a very entrepreneurial trait, right? | 这是一个非常创业的特点,对不对? |
| 1690 | So when I was thinking about like art like this field is gonna keep on evolving | 所以当我想着艺术 像这个领域会继续发展 |
| 1691 | All right, so what is the thing that's gonna be important for someone who's gonna run a lab? | 好吧,那对于一个要经营实验室的人来说 是什么很重要? |
| 1692 | Well, it's not like are they an expert in whatever the latest modality is of like or kind of of | 好吧,这不像他们是一个专家 无论最新的模式是什么 类似或类型 |
| 1693 | Training technique of for a lab. | 实验室的训练技巧 |
| 1694 | It's um, is the person a clear? | 这个人清楚了吗? |
| 1695 | Thinker and ability and able to kind of dynamically update and and move in like as as kind of an entrepreneur | 思考者和能力, 并且能够有活力地更新和移动 像像企业家一样 |
| 1696 | Would I think this is just like an inherently very entrepreneurial space? | 我会觉得这就像一个内在的非常创业空间吗? |
| 1697 | has this experience | 有这样的经历 |
| 1698 | changed your view on the value of | 更改了您对 |
| 1699 | going external at where both | 向外走,在其中两者 |
| 1700 | Your reboots a bunch of the people you brought in were | 你带来的一群人 |
| 1701 | external like Alex and not and Daniel and folks, but then also you're describing | 外表像亚历克斯,而不是丹尼尔和人们, 但你也在描述 |
| 1702 | Deciding whether you need a reboot based on going to the outside | 决定您是否需要根据前往外部重新启动 |
| 1703 | Intelligence of you know | 你知道吗? |
| 1704 | the aggregate views of the researchers in the industry and getting a sense for the just do you feel like you will carry forward | 研究者们在业界的 总体观点 和对正义的感知 感觉你会继续前进 |
| 1705 | That approach | 这种办法 |
| 1706 | Forward that approach | 推进这一方针 |
| 1707 | For future unrelated projects because obviously the risk of a large company is that everyone. | 对于未来无关的项目,因为很明显,一个大公司的风险是每个人。 |
| 1708 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1709 | Oh, we got a great approach | 哦,我们有一个伟大的方法 |
| 1710 | Yeah, let me show you our hundred-page document on it | 是的,我给你看我们的百页文件 |
| 1711 | Not I mean obviously you can't a lot of what we had to do here | 我不是说很明显你不能做很多我们不得不做的事 |
| 1712 | Was rotate a lot of the rest of the company and like for things like the infrastructure team that now | 公司里很多地方都在轮换 就像现在的基础设施团队 |
| 1713 | You know, it's like building these huge clusters to support this. | 你知道,这就像建立 这些巨大的集群支持这一点。 |
| 1714 | I mean, that's obviously a huge thing | 我的意思是,这显然是一件大事 |
| 1715 | so huge parts of the company kind of had to have to pivot to do this and | 公司里有一大堆东西 不得不做这个 |
| 1716 | Obviously can't do too many of those at the same time, right? | 显然不能同时做太多,对吧? |
| 1717 | Only one thing can be the top priority. | 只有一件事是头等大事 |
| 1718 | Yes | 对 |
| 1719 | but I | 不过 |
| 1720 | Think it unbalanced it has made me somewhat more optimistic. | 认为它不平衡 让我有些乐观。 |
| 1721 | I mean we brought in | 我的意思是,我们带来了 |
| 1722 | This guy Kunal Shah who it's I think he's like one of the top entrepreneurs in India | 这个叫Kunal Shah的人 我觉得他像印度顶尖企业家之一 |
| 1723 | I mean he was building this great company cred and now he's running whatsapp | 我的意思是他正在建立这个伟大的公司 信用,现在他运行什么app |
| 1724 | Which I always thought should do more in commerce and we were sort of under underserved there and India is the biggest country that we're in | 我一直认为在商业上应该多做一些 我们在那里的服务不足 而印度是我们最大的国家 |
| 1725 | and | 和 |
| 1726 | But I mean that's it's a bit of a different situation | 但是,我的意思是,这是一个有点不同的情况 |
| 1727 | Because we're not like pivoting the whole company towards whatsapp. | 因为我们不喜欢把整个公司都引向什么 |
| 1728 | We just wanted to bring more entrepreneurial energy there | 我们只是想在那里带来更多的创业能量 |
| 1729 | This was like a level 10 out of 10 difficulty thing | 这就像10个难题中的10个 |
| 1730 | I don't talk about in the past tense as if it's done because it's still a level difficulty thing, but | 过去的紧张状态里,我可没说 因为这还是个关卡问题,但是... |
| 1731 | But I think | 但我觉得 |
| 1732 | the number of pieces that kind of | 此类棋子的数量 |
| 1733 | Had to work | 不得不工作吗? |
| 1734 | It was yeah, it was it was quite all-encompassing and I think that that it's both difficult for the people doing it | 是的,这是相当 包罗万象 我认为这对人们来说都是困难的 |
| 1735 | But I do think that that also puts some level of strain on | 但我确实认为这也给 |
| 1736 | The rest of the company on the financial model of the company | 公司其他部分的金融模式 |
| 1737 | I think like you so I wouldn't want to conflate those two pieces, right? | 我觉得像你这样 这样我就不会把这两块拼起来了 对吧? |
| 1738 | It's like I think there's yeah, it's good to have new blood and it's good to have | 好像我觉得有,有新血是好的,有 |
| 1739 | people who understand the context and you know | 了解环境的人,你知道 |
| 1740 | You were talking about when people have been around meta for a while and understand the ups and downs and it's like | 你刚才在说 人们在元器件周围呆了一段时间 并且理解起伏 |
| 1741 | If you've worked at meta for ten years, you've seen some shit, right? | 如果你在meta工作了十年, 你见过一些狗屎,对不对? |
| 1742 | it's like it's like we've gone through a lot of the hard times and | 就像我们经历了许多困难时期 |
| 1743 | and like I think that that's kind of important context too, but | 我觉得那也是很重要的背景 |
| 1744 | but no, I think a lot of this is just | 但是,不,我认为很多 这是只是 |
| 1745 | trying to | 试图 |
| 1746 | You you're whenever you're building a team. | 你总是在建立一支队伍。 |
| 1747 | You're you inherently | 你本来就是 |
| 1748 | You know | 你知道吗 |
| 1749 | It's like Alex had a theory for what the team shape needed to be and like I guess I had a theory for what like the | 亚历克斯似乎有理论 关于团队的形状 需要是什么, 我想我有理论 关于什么喜欢 |
| 1750 | Shape of the leaders needed to be for it and | 领导人的造型需要为它和 |
| 1751 | And you know, it's like a year plus in it like seems | 你知道,这就像一年 加上在它看起来像 |
| 1752 | Okay, like it's like first of all, it was just good to try something different right and then different than what everyone else is doing | 好吧,就像它像第一, 它只是好尝试一些 不同的正确,然后不同 别人在做什么 |
| 1753 | yes, and | 对,而且 |
| 1754 | Then yeah, I mean it's | 然后是的 我是说 |
| 1755 | You know, I think there's some other dimensions here that are that are worth mentioning too | 你知道,我认为有一些其他的维度 值得一提。 |
| 1756 | like one of the like when deciding we had to do the full reboot like, you know, | 比如说当我们决定要全面重启的时候 比如说 |
| 1757 | We a lot of it was, you know, one of the main inputs was external but also one of the inputs | 我们有很多,你知道,其中之一 主要投入是外部 但也有一个投入 |
| 1758 | I don't think I've ever actually can't remember I told you this story | 我从没有忘记过这个故事 |
| 1759 | but one of the first meetings I had when I joined I was in this it was in this, you know meeting with some of the | 但当我加入的时候,我第一次见面... ...就是在这,你知道,我和一些... |
| 1760 | leads of the existing effort and | B. 现有努力的牵头者和 |
| 1761 | I was like, okay. | 我当时想,好吧。 |
| 1762 | I think the first thing we need to do is train a really good reasoning model by | 我认为我们首先需要做的 是训练一个非常好的推理模型 |
| 1763 | You know by some time frame. | 你知道一些时间框架。 |
| 1764 | I don't know when but this is like clearly like the most important milestone and | 我不知道什么时候 但是这显然是最重要的里程碑 |
| 1765 | One of the the key leads in the group | 组里的关键线索之一 |
| 1766 | Who no longer works the meta but was like, oh, we don't we don't need a reasoning model | 我们不需要推理模型 |
| 1767 | Does any are any of our do our consumers need a reasoning model? | 我们的消费者需要推理模型吗? |
| 1768 | like I feel like we don't need to do a reasoning model we just do a normal model and | 我觉得我们不需要做一个推理模型 我们只是做一个正常模型 |
| 1769 | I was I had like this heart-sinking moment. | 我有一个心沉的瞬间。 |
| 1770 | Oh, no, I've joined the wrong. | 哦,不,我加入错了。 |
| 1771 | I was like I was like, oh | 我就像我一样,哦 |
| 1772 | We I've got I gotta take like ten steps back | и璶10翴 |
| 1773 | And I think I think this is you know, this is a kind of funny anecdote | 我觉得这是个有趣的传闻 |
| 1774 | I remember calling that after this meeting it was like that's like | 我还记得我打过电话 之后的这个会议 就像是 |
| 1775 | This is what they just said in the meeting. | 这是他们刚才在会议上说的话。 |
| 1776 | But but I think it was it was it was | 但我认为是它 |
| 1777 | specifically an indicator of something that I think like Mark when he talked to people I certainly also started to realize which is like | 具体地说,是马克在和别人交谈时 所认为的一个指标 我当然也开始意识到 |
| 1778 | we needed leadership in the company being much more AI pilled and much more sort of like forward leaning and front leaning on | 我们需要领导公司 更多的AI 和更多的类型 像向前倾斜和前倾 |
| 1779 | Like where the how quickly the technology is moving where it's gonna go to what the possibilities are and like, you know | 比如说,科技发展得有多快, 它会发展到什么程度,像什么样,你知道的 |
| 1780 | effectively like dramatically more AI pilled and | 有效地像惊人的 AI丸和 |
| 1781 | I think as | 我觉得 |
| 1782 | Mark started | 开始标记 |
| 1783 | Pivoting and shifting the whole company towards this direction and it was very clear that this is like, you know | 引导和引导整个公司朝这个方向发展 很明显,这就像,你知道 |
| 1784 | I think Mark got AI pilled and then you know, everyone saw that he was AI pilled and ever realized like oh | 我想马克被安顿了 然后大家都知道他被安顿了 然后意识到 |
| 1785 | This is like where the company's going then I think you have like a lot of the existing leaders like | 这就像公司要去的地方,然后我想你有 像很多现有的领导喜欢 |
| 1786 | very quickly pick it up and change and like Adam Messeri, for example, who runs Instagram has one of the most like | 像亚当·梅塞里一样 管理Instagram的人最喜欢 |
| 1787 | Aesthetic but also like effective kind of like personal vibe code and personal mini app setup of anyone that I've seen | 美学,但也像 有效的类型 像个人的氛围代码 和个人的迷你应用 设置任何人,我见过 |
| 1788 | Like I think it's like he's like really gone quite far in the direction | 我觉得他好像朝这个方向走了很远 |
| 1789 | And I think a lot of the leaders at meta who have been a matter a long time are | 我认为很多在米塔的领导 已经是一个长期的问题 |
| 1790 | Like all very adaptive like I think you know kind of to the prior point | 像所有非常适应性 像我想你知道 那种前一点 |
| 1791 | They've been in a highly turbulent like period of technology now AI is like maybe | 他们一直处在一个高度动荡的时期 就像科技的时期 现在AI就像也许 |
| 1792 | You know five or ten times more turbulent and faster moving than those pathways | 你知道五到十倍 动荡和移动速度比那些路径快 |
| 1793 | But I think they're like they have adapted to new trends many times. | 但我认为他们好像 适应了许多次新的趋势。 |
| 1794 | And so I think there's like | 所以我觉得... |
| 1795 | I've been very impressed actually by seeing how | 我非常佩服地看到 |
| 1796 | Quickly a lot of meta leadership | 快速的很多元领导 |
| 1797 | You know if I compare the kind of conversations I would have with them when I first joined versus the kind of companies | 如果我比较一下我第一次加入公司时 和他们的对话 |
| 1798 | I have now they're not super a build | 现在他们不是超级建筑 |
| 1799 | Yeah, and it's it's very impressive honestly for that to happen at like the large scale of you know meta | 是啊,这是非常令人印象深刻的,诚实地说, 发生在像大尺度 你知道元 |
| 1800 | Which is one of the largest companies in the world | 这是世界上最大的公司之一 |
| 1801 | Yeah, we got them there quickly. | 是啊,我们得到了他们很快。 |
| 1802 | It was um, yeah, but but I mean like you're saying it's like if you know you start | 嗯,是的,但我的意思是 就像你说的,如果你知道你开始 |
| 1803 | Start coding then it's helpful | 开始编码,这样有用 |
| 1804 | But I think a big part of what a big part of the culture that we were trying to create is also | 但我认为我们试图创造的 文化的一大部分也是 |
| 1805 | You know we were talking about how you have all these direct reports the point of it isn't that | 你知道我们在谈论 你是如何有所有这些直接的报告 这一点不是 |
| 1806 | You have the direct reports. | 你有直接的报告。 |
| 1807 | It's that there aren't it's the absence of non-technical managers, right? | 是因为没有非技术管理人员,对吧? |
| 1808 | So so I don't think you would say that you're like, you know that you're providing a ton of managerial support to 200 people at once | 所以,我不认为你会说,你喜欢, 你知道,你正在提供一吨管理支助 一次200人 |
| 1809 | That's not a feature of the thing. | 这不是事情的特征。 |
| 1810 | I'm well known | 我当然知道 |
| 1811 | How you didn't check I think it's just well known among researchers that you know | 你怎么没查过 研究人员都知道 |
| 1812 | it's there's this common patterns like you go from being very technical to you go to a role where you're | 有一种常见的规律 就像你从很技术到角色 |
| 1813 | You're not like in the details anymore | 你不再喜欢细节了 |
| 1814 | And then you very quickly become not technical or don't kind of understand it much faster than you probably realize and it's quite | 然后,你很快变得不 技术或不太理解 它比你可能意识到的快得多 |
| 1815 | Fast-moving domain especially so I think that like this whole thing of just like you have to stay technical people have to use the | 特别是快速移动的域,所以我认为 像这样的整件事 就像你必须保持 技术人必须使用 |
| 1816 | Agents people should be writing code. | 特工人员应该写代码 |
| 1817 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1818 | I think that that's that has been a really important part of this whole thing. | 我认为这就是整个事情中一个非常重要的部分。 |
| 1819 | Have you had any very funny disagreements? | 你有任何非常有趣的分歧吗? |
| 1820 | We have a lot of disagreements. | 我们有许多分歧。 |
| 1821 | Yeah, I mean we're going to hang up until very recently | 是啊,我的意思是我们要挂断 直到最近 |
| 1822 | Some of the things I appreciate about like so it's like one of his I mean what this is like I think it goes back to your | 有些事情我很欣赏,所以它就像他的其中之一。 我的意思是,这是什么样的,我认为它回到你的 |
| 1823 | Philosophy you're talking about this for recruiting back at scale is like hire people who really care, right? | 你在谈论这个哲学,因为招募 以规模回来是像雇用 真正关心的人,对不对? |
| 1824 | I think there was some expletives in it | 我觉得里面有些夸张 |
| 1825 | but | 不过 |
| 1826 | But I don't really care as it turns out | 但我真的不在乎结果 |
| 1827 | No, that's like one of the things that I thought was you know, I think that that's like really important, right? | 不,这就像我想的事情之一 你知道, 我认为这就像 真的很重要,对不对? |
| 1828 | it's um, so I think part of what you you kind of get when you like have the supernova of like all these different | 所以,我想你得到的一部分 当你喜欢的超新星 像所有这些不同的 |
| 1829 | Very strong-willed people together is like you're gonna have like fun fights and not fun fights | 非常有意志的人在一起 就像你们要玩游戏而不是游戏 |
| 1830 | but like but it's like to some degree I'd rather have people push for things that they believe in and like | 但喜欢的,但是它喜欢 在某种程度上,我宁愿有人 推动的东西 他们相信和喜欢 |
| 1831 | Argue over things then you know, just have people think that they're like blindly executing something, you know | 争吵的事情,然后你知道, 只是让人们认为 他们像盲目执行的东西, 你知道 |
| 1832 | It's like people need to feel ownership. | 就像人们需要感觉主人翁感 |
| 1833 | So yeah, how does mark a different boss than you expected? | 那么,对,如何标记 一个不同的老板 比你预期的? |
| 1834 | Well, I don't have a huge comparison set. | 好吧,我没有 一个巨大的比较集。 |
| 1835 | I can leave now | 我现在可以走了 |
| 1836 | No, I think I think that like the I think it has been very | 不,我想我认为这是 我认为它一直非常 |
| 1837 | One of the very cool things about | 一个很酷的事情 |
| 1838 | Like working with mark over the past year has just been watching | 就像去年和马克合作一样 |
| 1839 | like the true degree of his boldness and like and this trait that we were talking about before of like | 就像他的胆量和那种真实程度 还有我们之前谈论过的这种特质 |
| 1840 | yeah, once he internalizes certain beliefs like the | 是的,一旦他内部化 某些信仰像 |
| 1841 | Speed and magnitude of like willing to like change, you know prior actions and and and | 速度和规模 喜欢喜欢改变, 你知道以前的行动和和 |
| 1842 | Pivot towards the like worldview that is consistent with those beliefs. | 向符合这些信仰的类似世界观的方向发展。 |
| 1843 | Like I think these are | 就像我想这些 |
| 1844 | pretty unusual traits generally speaking like even | 相当不寻常的特质 一般来说就像偶 |
| 1845 | Among the space of like founders are can actually ingest new information and fully updated worldview and then act in accordance with the newly installed | 在像创始人一样的空间中,可以实际摄入新的信息 和完全更新的世界观,然后按照新安装的 |
| 1846 | worldview very patient and then and then willing to take | 世界观非常耐心,然后愿意接受 |
| 1847 | I've never gotten such an exclamation point before | 我从没有这么感叹过 |
| 1848 | What lovely priors you have | 你的前科多可爱啊 |
| 1849 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1850 | But the posteriors | 但后遗症 |
| 1851 | You're not allowed to talk about posteriors anymore after the whole incident | 事发后不准再谈后事 |
| 1852 | Yeah, no, but and then but then I think I think also just the degree of of boldness and I think that like the | 是啊,不,但后来,但然后我想 我也认为只是 程度的胆量 我认为喜欢 |
| 1853 | This is it was like actually quite puzzling to me at first the degree to which you were like willing to make these massive bets | 这就像实际上相当令人费解 起初,你喜欢的程度 愿意做出这些大赌注 |
| 1854 | Something actually not and I would often like talk about was like wow, we're really going big here | 其实有些事没有,我经常想谈 就像哇,我们真的要去大这里。 |
| 1855 | Like and both of us would be like would you go this big? | 就像我们两个都一样 你会去这么大? |
| 1856 | Would you go this big and so I think that this I think it's like I mean that is that is like quite a notable trait | 你会去这么大 所以我觉得这 我觉得这就像我是说, 这是一个相当显著的特征 |
| 1857 | And and something I really admire and I think I think is I think is very I actually like if I | 和一些我非常钦佩的东西 我觉得我想是 我非常喜欢如果我 |
| 1858 | look back at the history of meta and I | 回首我和元的历史 |
| 1859 | Imagine what the like scenario would have been in all these like pivotal moments. | 想象一下在所有这些关键时刻, 会发生什么样的情况。 |
| 1860 | I can see how like | 我看得出来 |
| 1861 | This is kind of the movie so to speak or like this is kind of how a lot of those situations go where it's like | 这部电影就是这么说的 或像这样的 那种很多这样的情节 |
| 1862 | there's I | 还有我 |
| 1863 | feel like probably | 感觉可能是 |
| 1864 | the way I | 我这样 |
| 1865 | Imagine is like they're clear these moments where like something very very big is happening | 想象一下,就像他们清楚了这些瞬间一样... ... ...... |
| 1866 | And it may not even really be showing in the metrics or may not be impacting user | 它甚至可能没有真正显示在度量衡中 也可能没有影响用户 |
| 1867 | Counts or impacting revenue or whatever it might be like it's it's not really impacting things | 计数或影响收入 或它可能像 它不是真正影响事物 |
| 1868 | but clearly if you believe that thing is going to happen then it has like massive implications for the company and the product and | 但是很明显,如果你相信 事情会发生, 那么它像 巨大的影响公司和产品, |
| 1869 | and I think | 我觉得 |
| 1870 | You know my you know post-hoc retelling of metas history is that like I think metas a company where every time that happens | 你知道,我你知道 后热重述 metas 历史 就像我想metas一个公司, |
| 1871 | Meta takes it extremely extremely seriously and that has enabled the company to innovate and continue evolving | Meta极其认真对待,这让公司得以创新并不断发展。 |
| 1872 | With a very fast-moving and fast-changing tech landscape | 技术环境变化很快 |
| 1873 | And it's very Bayesian. | 而且非常巴耶西亚语. |
| 1874 | Yeah, very good soap Asian | 是啊,非常好的亚洲肥皂 |
| 1875 | Life is short. | 寿命短短. |
| 1876 | Just do the right thing | 做对的事 |
| 1877 | Yeah, and I think I think AI's I mean, I think AI is maybe that like, you know times 100 or whatnot | 是的,我想我想AI的我的意思是, 我认为AI可能是喜欢, 你知道乘以100或什么的 |
| 1878 | but like I think | 但我觉得 |
| 1879 | the | 联合国 |
| 1880 | You know a lot of CEOs would have told you last, you know last summer | 你知道很多首席执行官 会告诉你最后一个, 你知道去年夏天 |
| 1881 | Oh, yeah | 对 |
| 1882 | I think AI is the most important thing for my business like I think maybe every CEO would say that | 我觉得AI是最重要的事情 我的业务,我觉得也许每个CEO会说 |
| 1883 | but then you look at like what they're actually doing and how consistent are their actions with that belief and I think this is like a | 但是,你看着像 他们实际上在做什么, 他们的行动如何一致 与这种信念 我认为这是一个 |
| 1884 | like quite quite special thing about Meta and Mark | 喜欢相当特别的事情 关于梅塔和马克 |
| 1885 | Last question because it were passed all of our good times so flattered. | 最后一个问题,因为它已经过去 我们所有的美好时光 如此受宠若惊。 |
| 1886 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1887 | What do you make of all of Alex's deranged posting on Twitter? | 你对艾丽克丝在推特上发的疯消息有什么看法? |
| 1888 | I mean, I think most of it is great, but | 我的意思是,我认为大部分 这是伟大的,但 |
| 1889 | But I I guess my main view but it doesn't matter how how much you fail | 但我猜我的主要观点,但不管你失败多少 |
| 1890 | It matters how win how big you win when you win. | 重要的是你赢多少赢多少 |
| 1891 | I think with | 我觉得 |
| 1892 | So I think with with communication | 所以我想与沟通 |
| 1893 | I think it's most important to just be authentic and I think when you're trying to be authentic | 我认为最重要的是,只是真实的, 我想当你试图真实的 |
| 1894 | Some of the things don't come out the way you want and I think that that is a that it is better to make the trade | 有些事情不是你想的那么简单 我认为这样比较好 |
| 1895 | In that direction than it is to be overly scripted and not be authentic | 在那个方向上,比它过分的脚本 和不真实 |
| 1896 | But I mean at most of it I just feel it's hilarious. | 但我的意思是,大多数情况下,我只是觉得这很有趣。 |
| 1897 | So | 这么说 |
| 1898 | Yeah, what do you think about my deranged tweets? | 是啊,你觉得怎么样 我的疯狂的微博? |
| 1899 | I'm not a I'm not a heavy X user | 我不是个重X用户 |
| 1900 | But but you you you are back on I'm back to full posting | 但你现在又回到我身边了 |
| 1901 | I mean, it's like a bunch of the researchers are there and we want to you were there | 我的意思是,这就像一群 研究人员在那里,我们希望你在那里 |
| 1902 | but everything I post there I also post on threads and | 但我贴的每件东西,我都贴在线上 |
| 1903 | It's it's all good. | 谓一切善根. |
| 1904 | But every time I load X I have like four Alex posts and it just like cracks me out | 但每次我装X的时候 我都有四个Alex的帖子 就像是把我弄出来一样 |
| 1905 | It's like some of these like it's like where do you go? | 就像这些东西,你要去哪里? |
| 1906 | We're just talking about you're now a clearinghouse | 我们只是说你现在是一个信息交换所 |
| 1907 | Where people send you good stuff like where do you come up with this stuff? | 人们会把好东西寄给你 比如你从哪里想出来的? |
| 1908 | It's like, yeah, this is yeah, how does it work? | 就像,是啊,这是是啊, 它是如何工作的? |
| 1909 | most like we were we were talking to my partner yesterday and he was you know, I think one observation was just | 就像我们昨天跟我的搭档谈话 他就是 你知道的 我觉得有一点只是 |
| 1910 | There was actually probably still to this moment. | 事实上,现在还可能存在。 |
| 1911 | I might my thought pattern oftentimes is oh, that's funny | 也许我的思维模式 经常是哦,这很有趣 |
| 1912 | I wonder what Jolly would think about that and then and then you know, you get good memes out of that that being said | 我想知道乔莉会怎么想 然后你知道,你得到好的迷因 从刚才说的 |
| 1913 | I have experienced the the | 我经历过 |
| 1914 | sort of like brutal | 有点像残忍 |
| 1915 | metabolism of the internet and how quickly it like metabolizes memes and so the sort of like | 互联网的新陈代谢 和它如何快 像新陈代谢 迷因,所以那种喜欢 |
| 1916 | You know, you really have to stay | 你知道,你真的必须留下 |
| 1917 | Stay on the on the cutting edge of memeing to default behind. | 保持最前沿的记忆 以违约后。 |
| 1918 | Yeah, which is maybe a good summer of this conversation | 是啊,这可能是一个好的夏天 这个谈话 |
| 1919 | It's easy to fall behind | 很容易落后的 |
| 1920 | Stay in the details. | 留在细节。 |
| 1921 | Yeah, stay technical and stay at the frontier. | 是啊,保持技术 并停留在边境。 |
| 1922 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1923 | All righty. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 1924 | We'll leave it there. | 我们把它放在那里。 |
| 1925 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 1926 | Thanks guys. | 谢谢各位。 |
| 1927 | Thank you | 谢谢 |
| 1928 | Okay, so what is everyone drinking? | 好吧,什么是每个人都喝? |
| 1929 | Well that what is this? | 这是什么? |
| 1930 | That's a keg of Guinness that I brought you. | 那是我给你带来的一桶吉尼斯 |
| 1931 | This is Guinness from Dublin. | 这是都柏林来的吉尼斯 |
| 1932 | Oh, wow. | 哦,哇呜。 |
| 1933 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1934 | Yeah | 对 |
| 1935 | I was just there this week. | 我这周才到 |
| 1936 | Oh awesome. | 赞极了 |
| 1937 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1938 | Well, thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1939 | We got the local stuff. | 我们得到了当地的东西。 |
| 1940 | Yeah, there you go | 对,给你 |
| 1941 | Yeah, no, I figured this would be a good occasion to | 是啊,不,我想这将是一个很好的机会 |
| 1942 | Get the Guinness. | 得到吉尼斯号。 |
| 1943 | Yeah | 对 |
该视频共有字幕 1956 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能,请移动到 价格
