从狂赚1000%到闪电崩盘！24岁硅谷神童的 AI 基金炸雷
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Situational awareness made a lot of money. | 情境意识赚了很多钱。 |
| 0:02 | Why are we talking about it so much? | 为什么我们谈论它这么多? |
| 0:04 | The implosion of situational awareness. | 情境意识的内泄. |
| 0:07 | For a while it did look like this guy was a genius. | 有一阵子看起来这家伙是个天才 |
| 0:09 | And it quickly lost a lot of money. | 并很快损失了很多钱. |
| 0:11 | Yes, talk about a rollercoaster. | 是的,说说滑轮机 |
| 0:12 | Thanks in large part to a tactic known as the Texas Hedge. | 这在很大程度上要归功于一种被称为德克萨斯海奇的战术. |
| 0:16 | Here's how that worked. | 是这样的 |
| 0:19 | For situational awareness, they had a belief | 为了了解情况 他们有信念 |
| 0:21 | that AI is gonna transform the economy, | AI会改变经济, |
展开字幕全文（107 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Situational awareness made a lot of money. | 情境意识赚了很多钱。 |
| 2 | Why are we talking about it so much? | 为什么我们谈论它这么多? |
| 3 | The implosion of situational awareness. | 情境意识的内泄. |
| 4 | For a while it did look like this guy was a genius. | 有一阵子看起来这家伙是个天才 |
| 5 | And it quickly lost a lot of money. | 并很快损失了很多钱. |
| 6 | Yes, talk about a rollercoaster. | 是的,说说滑轮机 |
| 7 | Thanks in large part to a tactic known as the Texas Hedge. | 这在很大程度上要归功于一种被称为德克萨斯海奇的战术. |
| 8 | Here's how that worked. | 是这样的 |
| 9 | For situational awareness, they had a belief | 为了了解情况 他们有信念 |
| 10 | that AI is gonna transform the economy, | AI会改变经济, |
| 11 | and as it diffuses through the economy, | 随着经济的分散, |
| 12 | certain companies are gonna benefit, | 某些公司将会受益, |
| 13 | and certain companies are gonna lose. | 某些公司会输的 |
| 14 | So situational awareness's strategy | 所以情况意识的策略 |
| 15 | was to go long the stocks of AI winners. | 要长长AI赢家的股票。 |
| 16 | Being long a stock is just your betting | 长的股票只是你的赌注 |
| 17 | that it's gonna go up. | 它会上升。 |
| 18 | So who is the founder of situational awareness? | 那么谁是情境意识的创始人? |
| 19 | 该属共有24种,命名为利奥波德·阿申布伦纳(Leopold Aschenbrenner). | |
| 20 | Leopold Aschenbrenner不是你典型的对冲基金经理 | |
| 21 | In fact, he had no prior professional investing experience. | 事实上,他没有专业投资经验。 |
| 22 | Before starting the hedge fund, | 在启动对冲基金之前, |
| 23 | he was very famous for writing an essay | 他写了一篇论文很出名 |
| 24 | called Situational Awareness. | 称为“情况意识”。 |
| 25 | 165 pages about the future of AI. | 165页 关于AI的未来. |
| 26 | He got a cult following from that. | 他从中得到了一个邪教追随。 |
| 27 | Everyone from Michael Dell to Ivanka Trump tweeted it out. | 从迈克尔·戴尔到伊万卡·特朗普的每个人都发了推特. |
| 28 | We saw how much sort of chat GPT unleashed, right? | 我们看到了多少类型的聊天 GPT 释放,对不对? |
| 29 | And so like every generation, | 就像每一代人一样 |
| 30 | you know, the models are gonna be kind of crazy | 模特儿会很疯狂的 |
| 31 | and people, it's gonna shift the overton window. | 和人们,它会转移 超重窗口。 |
| 32 | Precocious is definitely one word | 珍贵绝对是一个词 |
| 33 | you can use to describe Leopold. | 你可以用来描述利奥波德 |
| 34 | So what is a Texas hedge? | 德州篱笆是什么? |
| 35 | It's a bit of a misnomer because it's not a hedge at all. | 因为它根本不是篱笆,所以有点错位. |
| 36 | Typically, when you're hedging something, | 通常,当你在套用什么, |
| 37 | you want to decrease your risk | 你想降低你的风险 |
| 38 | or your exposure to some event. | 或者你接触某个事件。 |
| 39 | Texas hedge actually doubles down | 德克萨斯州的对冲实际上翻了一番 |
| 40 | or increases your exposure. | 或增加你的暴露。 |
| 41 | So to give an example, | 所以举个例子 |
| 42 | let's say you wanna make a bet on the future price of oil | 假设你想打赌石油的未来价格 |
| 43 | in the stock market. | 在股票市场。 |
| 44 | Maybe you would go long an airline. | 也许你会去长航。 |
| 45 | You think oil prices are going to decrease, | 你认为油价会下降 |
| 46 | air fares will get cheaper, more people will fly. | 机票会更便宜 更多的人会飞 |
| 47 | Texas hedge that, maybe you go short ExxonMobil. | 德克萨斯州对冲,也许你少了埃克森美孚 |
| 48 | And ExxonMobil drills for a lot of oil, | 和埃克森美孚钻很多石油, |
| 49 | lower prices are bad for it. | 降低价格对它有害。 |
| 50 | So the Texas hedge phrase actually originated in cattle. | 所以德克萨斯州的套期词其实起源于牛. |
| 51 | A lot of Texas cattlemen who owned, you know, | 很多德州牛人拥有,你知道, |
| 52 | large herds of cattle and made their living from that. | 大量牛群,靠这些为生。 |
| 53 | Some of them would try to reduce their exposure | 他们中有些人会努力减少接触 |
| 54 | to cattle price in the future in financial markets. | 未来在金融市场的牛价。 |
| 55 | They would take an offsetting position, | 他们会采取抵消立场, |
| 56 | either with futures or options, | 或有未来或选择, |
| 57 | that would benefit if the price of cattle declined. | 如果牛的价格下降,那将是有益的。 |
| 58 | The cattlemen who were employing the Texas hedge, | 使用德州篱笆的牛人 |
| 59 | actually the opposite. | 其实恰恰相反。 |
| 60 | They took positions in financial markets | 他们在金融市场上占据了位置 |
| 61 | that would benefit if the price of cattle rose. | 如果牛的价钱上涨,那将是有益的。 |
| 62 | There are three common ways investors get into trouble. | 投资者遇到麻烦有三种常见方式. |
| 63 | They can hold too much concentrated investments | 他们可以持有过多的集中投资 |
| 64 | in just a few companies. | 在几个公司。 |
| 65 | They can borrow too much and have too much leverage, | 他们可以借太多钱,还有太多的杠杆, |
| 66 | or they can take too much risk | 或者他们可能承受太多的风险 |
| 67 | investing in illiquid securities. | 投资不流动证券。 |
| 68 | Situation awareness did a bit of all three. | 情境意识对这三件事都做了一点 |
| 69 | For a while, it worked really well, right? | 有一阵子,它的工作真的很好,对不对? |
| 70 | Their returns were stellar. | 他们的回报是惊人的。 |
| 71 | Through May of this year, | 到今年五月为止 |
| 72 | we've reported they were up over a thousand percent | 我们报告他们涨了一千多 |
| 73 | after fees since inception in 2024. | 自2024年成立以来, |
| 74 | But when you have that much leverage, | 但当你有那么多的杠杆, |
| 75 | it really doesn't take much to cause it to unwind | 它真的不花太多 使它解冻 |
| 76 | and cause you to have to force to cut your risk, | 让你不得不被迫降低风险 |
| 77 | sell positions. | 出售职位。 |
| 78 | And at the end of July 29th, that Wednesday, | 7月29日,那个星期三, |
| 79 | they realized they needed a more permanent solution. | 他们意识到他们需要一个更长久的解决办法。 |
| 80 | So they had discussions with Ken Griffin, | 所以他们和肯·格里芬讨论过 |
| 81 | 谁是Citadel的创始人。 | |
| 82 | Citadel is one of the largest hedge funds in the world, | Citadel是世界上最大的对冲基金之一 |
| 83 | about $71 billion in assets under management. | 管理的资产约710亿美元。 |
| 84 | And they really have a reputation for kind of stepping in | 他们真的有名气 那种介入 |
| 85 | in times of stress for other hedge funds | 其他对冲基金的压力 |
| 86 | and taking the problem off their hands, | 并且把问题从他们手中拿开, |
| 87 | obviously for a price. | 显然要付出代价 |
| 88 | Situational awareness is back in business. | 情境意识恢复了 |
| 89 | Sources telling Bloomberg that the hedge fund | 来源告诉彭博社对冲基金 |
| 90 | has completed a $400 million investment. | 已完成4亿美元的投资。 |
| 91 | Leopold Aschenbrenner and Situational Awareness, | 利奥波德·阿申布伦纳和情况认识, |
| 92 | they aren't going anywhere anytime soon. | 他们不会很快去任何地方。 |
| 93 | Still have a very large privates portfolio | 仍然有很多私人投资 |
| 94 | of venture capital bets, | 风险资本赌注, |
| 95 | Anthropic being the biggest one, | 安东尼是最大的一个, |
| 96 | but also stakes in companies like Fluidstack. | 也和Fluidstack这样的公司有利害关系 |
| 97 | And they still have a public equity book of stocks. | 而且他们还有一本股票的公有股本 |
| 98 | Pretty amazing stat in all of this | 在这一切中,非常惊人的状态 |
| 99 | is Situational Awareness told its investors on July 30th | 7月30日向投资者通报了情况 |
| 100 | that it was down 67% staggering decline. | 下降67% 惊人的下降。 |
| 101 | What's also pretty staggering is the fund is still up | 更令人吃惊的是 基金还在 |
| 102 | 80% on the year, even including those losses. | 年均80%,甚至包括这些损失。 |
| 103 | Investors can tolerate a lot if you still make the money. | 如果你还赚到钱 投资者可以容忍很多 |
| 104 | And I think he's gonna have a lot of loyal people | 我觉得他会有很多忠诚的人 |
| 105 | who still think that he has the right nose | 他们仍以为他有正确的鼻子 |
| 106 | to step out where AI is at. | 走出AI所在的地方。 |
| 107 | And I think he's gonna have a lot of loyal people | 我觉得他会有很多忠诚的人 |
该视频共有字幕 107 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格