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爆满 4000 人!奥巴马柯尔盖特大学重磅专访:民主从来不是

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:08Good evening and welcome to Colgate University in beautiful Hamilton, New晚上好,欢迎来到科尔盖特大学 美丽的汉密尔顿,纽
0:14York.约克
0:16Yeah, Hamilton, New York deserves an applause line and welcome to tonight's是的,汉密尔顿,纽约 值得掌声,欢迎今晚
0:24edition of the Kirchner family global leaders series.Kirchner家族全球领袖系列的版本。
0:28Through this series made通过这个系列
0:30possible by the Kirchner family and the Parents Fund, Colgate has welcomed a科尔盖特欢迎您加入
0:35remarkable array of men and women in the arts, in politics, and from the在艺术、政治、
0:41Academy.学院.
0:42And of course tonight we're going to welcome one of the most当然,今晚我们将欢迎其中一位
0:45consequential figures of the 21st century, not just in the United States,21世纪的相应数字 不仅仅是在美国
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序号英文中文
1Good evening and welcome to Colgate University in beautiful Hamilton, New晚上好,欢迎来到科尔盖特大学 美丽的汉密尔顿,纽
2York.约克
3Yeah, Hamilton, New York deserves an applause line and welcome to tonight's是的,汉密尔顿,纽约 值得掌声,欢迎今晚
4edition of the Kirchner family global leaders series.Kirchner家族全球领袖系列的版本。
5Through this series made通过这个系列
6possible by the Kirchner family and the Parents Fund, Colgate has welcomed a科尔盖特欢迎您加入
7remarkable array of men and women in the arts, in politics, and from the在艺术、政治、
8Academy.学院.
9And of course tonight we're going to welcome one of the most当然,今晚我们将欢迎其中一位
10consequential figures of the 21st century, not just in the United States,21世纪的相应数字 不仅仅是在美国
11but around the world.但环游世界
12It's a rare thing to be able to say tonight's guest needs很难说今晚的客人需要什么
13no introduction.无介绍。
14Tonight's guest needs no introduction, so without further ado今晚的客人不需要介绍 所以不用再多说了
15please welcome to the stage President Barack Obama.请欢迎巴拉克·奥巴马总统登台
16I don't want to milk this too much.我不想挤太多
17It is good to see you Colgate and whoever was in很高兴见到你和科尔盖特
18charge of arranging the weather, good job, but I am not fooled.负责安排天气,好工作, 但我没有被愚弄。
19I know it's我知道这是
20gonna get a little colder around here.这里会冷一点
21Not for a while, we're good, we're good.没有一段时间,我们很好,我们很好。
22Welcome to Colgate Mr. President.欢迎来到科尔盖特先生
23Thank you so much Mr. President, it's great to非常感谢,总统先生,很高兴
24see you.再见
25Now that we've established parity I think we can begin the既然我们建立了平等 我想我们可以开始
26conversation.谈话。
27I have to say we're gonna have an hour together in which we're我不得不说,我们将有一个小时 在一起,我们是在
28going to talk about a number of topics.讨论一些话题
29This is true.这是真的。
30This is true, but what I这是真的,但我
31have to say is ever since we announced that you were coming, the one question不得不说,自从我们宣布你来以后 只有一个问题
32that has come at me as I walk across the campus, the one question everybody wants我走过校园时,我遇到了一个问题 每个人都想问
33to answer, so I might as well open up with the first question which is how's所以,我不妨打开 第一个问题,这是如何
34Michelle Obama?米歇尔・奥巴马?
35Well, listen, I understand I'm your second choice.好吧,听着,我知道我是你的第二个选择。
36我了解,我记得 I get it.
37In the在那个
38popularity rankings in the Obama household I am the last, so I am where it奥巴马家族的流行排名 我是最后一位 所以我就在那里
39met.见过
40This was a tough week, some people are aware, we lost our dog Sonny this这是一个艰难的一周, 有些人知道, 我们失去了我们的狗桑尼这个
41week, and we were talking about it backstage because you have an older dog一周,我们谈论它后台 因为你有一只老狗
42and I also know their parents here.我也认识他们的父母
43The connection you have with your pets你和宠物的关系
44obviously are really important.显然这很重要
45When they're pets that grew up with your kids,当它们和你的孩子们一起长大的时候
46then they're more than just, it's not just that you love them, they're the然后他们不只是, 不只是你爱他们,他们是
47with your children as they were growing up in the passage of time.和你的孩子们一起长大
48So that's这么说吧
49been a little tough on Michelle.对米歇尔有点苛刻
50Otherwise, though, she is living her best否则,虽然,她活得最好
51life and she is working with our foundation around empowering young她与我们的基金会合作 围绕增强年轻人的能力
52women and girls, she is doing a podcast and looking cute, and the fact that she妇女和女孩,她正在做播客 和看起来可爱,事实上她
53has not kicked me to the curb is I am grateful for.没有踢我到路边 我很感激。
54It's early.时早.
55Well, it's not that early.没那么早
56I may我会的
57re-celebrate 35 years this year, so I feel like I'm at the stage where her今年再庆祝35年 所以我觉得自己在她的舞台上
58retraining another guy, not worth the effort.重新训练另一个家伙,不值得付出这个努力。
59She might as well just ride it她还是骑吧
60Well, I'm glad she's settling, and I think I should congratulate both of you on the嗯,我很高兴她正在定居 我想我应该祝贺你们俩
61opening of the Obama Center.奥巴马中心的开幕
62Thank you very much.谢谢
63I will tell you, we were我会告诉你,我们曾经
64taking some some photographs backstage and a number of people had already gone拍了一些后台的照片 很多人已经走了
65to visit, and for those of you, if you get a chance in Chicago, I think you如果你有机会去芝加哥,我想你
66will enjoy it.将享受它。
67Because the story is, it's not really just the story about my因为故事是, 它真的不只是关于我的故事
68presidency, the museum tells a story about America, and the goal here is to总统,博物馆讲述了美国的故事 这里的目标是
69create a campus around which we can learn from each other about how to bring创建一个校园 我们可以互相学习如何带来
70about positive social change, and not just here in this country, but关于积极的社会变革, 不只是在这里 在这个国家,
71internationally, and that's a lot of what our program is about.在国际上,这是很多 我们的方案是什么。
72Well, it seems very嗯,这似乎非常
73exciting.令人兴奋。
74It looks very beautiful, so you must be relieved and thrilled.它看起来非常美丽, 所以你必须解脱和激动。
75Well, you've been嗯,你已经
76through capital campaigns.通过资本运动。
77Oh, yeah.对
78Yeah, they're a lot better when you're done on,是的,他们好多了 当你完成,
79when you're on the other side.当于彼时.
80Yeah.对
81I'm looking forward to that day.我期待着那一天。
82So the first所以第一个
83couple questions I have, I would like to invite you to just reflect on your我有几个问题,我想请您考虑一下
84presidency and your time there.以及你在那里的时间。
85So before you became president of the United States, you taught在你成为美国总统之前 你教过
86constitutional law at the University of Chicago, you were a community organizer, you were a芝加哥大学的宪法法 你是社区组织者 你是
87U.S.美国.
88Senator, you also were in the Illinois House.参议员,你也在伊利诺伊州大厦
89So in all of those所以在所有这些
90positions, you start learning about America, and you build conceptions of位置,你开始学习 美国,你构思
91what America is and what Americans are like, but the presidency must reveal美国是什么 美国人是什么 但总统必须揭发
92something about the nation and its people that all those other positions关于国家及其人民的一切其他立场
93wouldn't have shown you.不会告诉你。
94So for like good or ill, what did that seat show you about the所以,无论好坏,那座椅是什么让你看到
95nation and its people?国家及其人民?
96It's a great question.问曰.
97I'd preface it by saying this.我会用这个来做序语
98I had the我有这个
99advantage of serving in the Illinois Senate for a while, and Illinois is an在伊利诺伊州参议院任职一段时间的好处,伊利诺伊州是一个
100interesting state because demographically, it's about as representative of America as any有趣的状态,因为从人口统计学上来说, 它和任何美国的代表性
101state.状态。
102It's not just, doesn't just reflect sort of the racial makeup of the country, but it's这不仅仅是,不 仅仅反映 某种种族化妆的国家,
103also urban and rural, and it's north and south.也是城市和农村, 并且它的南北。
104If you go to southern Illinois, it's much如果你去伊利诺伊州南部,那就太多了
105closer to Kentucky than it is to Chicago, culturally as well as geographically.更接近肯塔基州 而不是芝加哥 文化上和地理上
106So spending time所以花点时间
107in the state legislature there, you're meeting folks from the inner city, but you're also在州立法机构里,你正在和 内城的人见面,但你也是
108meeting hog farmers and bean farmers, and you're getting a sense of the diversity of the遇见猪和豆农, 你得到一种 多样性
109country.国家。
110And campaigning, partly because I had such a long primary, which was, you know, at the竞选活动,部分是因为我有这么长的小学, 你知道,在
111time, I won't say I was thrilled with grinding it out for 18 months, but it did have the时间,我不会说我很高兴 磨出来18个月,但它确实有
112benefit of me campaigning in every state, which is rare, because these days things get so我在每个州竞选都有好处 这是罕见的 因为现在事情变得如此
113divided, that's a red state, that's a blue state.分裂,即红州,即蓝州.
114We really went everywhere, Idaho and Mississippi,爱达荷州和密西西比州
115and I think the only state we didn't go to was Alaska during the campaign.我想我们唯一没有去的州 是阿拉斯加竞选期间
116So I had gotten a所以我得到了一个
117sense of what the country was like from that process, and going into the presidency, my感受这个国家从那个过程中, 进入总统,我的
118conclusion has always been, and it was affirmed, this is a really big country, it's really结论一直是,它得到了肯定, 这是一个真正的大国,它真的
119complicated.复杂
120You've got people whose ancestry is rooted in every corner of the globe.汝等有众生缘起根於世间一切处.
121There is a certain optimism, a certain character of neighborliness.有一种一定的乐观,某种的邻里性格.
122The thing that strikes you when you travel around the country is that周游全国时最让你震惊的是
123we are not as divided as our politics or our media would suggest.我们没有像我们的政治或媒体所暗示的那样分裂。
124Now, that's a problem现在,这是个问题
125structurally.结构上。
126There are reasons why our politics divides us, whether it's gerrymandering or我们的政治分裂是有原因的, 不管它是宝石还是
127unrestricted campaign spending and negative ads, and there's also structural reasons why the media媒体的无限制的竞选开支和负面广告 也有结构性的原因
128divides us, because in this social media world now we're all siloed off and we each are pushed因为在这个社交媒体世界里 我们都被孤立了,我们各自被推倒
129towards a very particular vision of the world, often fed by fear, that makes us mistrust each other.走向一个非常特别的世界观,往往以恐惧为食,使我们彼此不信任。
130But when you're on the ground, what's striking is that I remember the first time I started但当你在地面上时 令人惊讶的是 我记得我第一次开始
131campaigning in Iowa, and look, there is a lot of corn there.爱荷华州的竞选活动 看 那里有很多玉米
132That stereotype is true, but you'll go陈规定型是真的,但你会去的
133into a rural community in Iowa and discover that here's a town that was founded by进入爱荷华州的一个农村社区 发现这里有个镇子是由
134hippies, and there's an orthodox community, a Jewish community living side by side嬉皮士,还有一个正统社区, 一个犹太社区 并肩生活
135with a bunch of farmers, and people work together, and they extend grace towards each other in ways和一群农民, 人们一起工作, 他们互相恩惠的方式
136that you do not see in your doom scrolling.在你的末日里,你们没有看见什么。
137And so that, I think, was something that I所以,我认为,这是一件我
138came to appreciate even more when I was in office.我上任时就更加感激你了
139Just two other things I would say我只说两件事
140are worth noting, and this has less to do with the American people than这是值得注意的, 这与美国人民没有关系 比
141the role of America, the vantage point that you get.美国的角色, 你得到的优势点。
142The first is that our government is第一,我们的政府
143vast, and our system of government is deliberately set up to decentralize power.我们的政府体制是有意为权力的分散而建立的。
144It is very hard to make that thing work这件事很难办到
145if you have the levels of mistrust that we currently have in our system, particularly如果你的不信任程度 与我们系统,特别是
146between the parties.在双方之间。
147And the other thing that is striking is the degree to which另一件令人惊讶的事是...
148America up until recently really did underwrite the global order美国直到最近才真正维护了全球秩序
149in ways that you sort of understand, but it's not until you get into the office that you realize但直到你进入办公室 你才意识到
150so much of what we take for granted about freedom of navigation or我们认为航行自由是理所当然的
151the global nature of the internet, or how do we respond when there's a natural disaster somewhere互联网的全球性质, 或者我们如何应对 当有自然灾害的地方
152in the world, or how do we set an agenda to deal with certain security issues.或我们如何制定处理某些安全问题的议程。
153Even our adversaries甚至我们的对手
154that's something we should be proud of, but it's also something that we should这也是我们应该骄傲的
155feel some responsibility for, because when we don't get things right,感觉一些责任, 因为当我们不正确的事情,
156when we're not our best selves, the whole world gets a little dimmer.当我们不是我们最好的自己, 整个世界会变得有点沉闷。
157And when we stand up for当我们站起来
158values like human rights or freedom of speech or人权、言论自由或
159you know express concern and are proactive around issues like climate change,你知道,对气候变化之类的问题 表示关心和积极主动,
160then not everybody goes along a hundred percent, but the world leans into a better direction.但世界会走向一个更好的方向。
161I want to pick up on something you're talking about.我想接听你说的
162The American people gave you a sense of美国人民给了你一种
163working these days.这些天都在工作
164The president of the United States in some ways sets the emotional weather美国总统以某种方式决定了情绪的天气
165for the nation.为了国家。
166An optimistic president can be an optimistic, can create a sense of optimism,一个乐观的总统可以是一个乐观的, 可以创造一种乐观的感觉,
167not only around that president, about the nation, but I just want to pick up something.不仅在总统身边,关于国家, 我只想拿些东西。
168How the world sees the United States can be driven by the behavior of the president.世界如何看待美国,可以被总统的行为所驱使.
169What you honor, what you dignify, what you derive,你所尊崇的,你所尊崇的,你所得的,
170what you notice, what you don't notice.你注意到的,你没有注意到的。
171When did you feel that when you came into the office?你什么时候来办公室的?
172What did you do with that responsibility, that power?你做了什么 责任,权力?
173Was it a heavy thing to carry?携带起来很重吗?
174You know, I had certain expectations for myself in terms of how I was going to conduct myself你知道,我对我自己有 一定的期望,我如何做自己
175in office.现职.
176I didn't find it that hard because they were the expectations I had for myself in我并不觉得这很难 因为它们是我对自己的期望
177terms of how I acted as a grown man.关于我如何作为一个成年人的行为。
178So, you know, like, you know, basic behavior, honesty,所以,你知道,就像,你知道, 基本的行为,诚实,
179hard work, doing your homework, treating people with respect.努力工作 做功课 尊重别人
180So I didn't find it to be a strain.所以我不觉得这很紧张
181There are certain moments in the presidency.在主席职位上有某些时间。
182Let's take, for example, disasters.以灾为例.
183I remember there was a series of tornadoes I think in我记得有一系列龙卷风 我想到
1842011, 12, and Missouri got hit and then later Alabama got hit.2011年,12号,密苏里州被击中,后来阿拉巴马州被击中.
185And you'd go as president你会去当总统
186to places where nobody voted for you.去没人投你票的地方
187You'd see, or at least didn't vote for me because you'd see你会看到,或者至少没有投给我 因为你会看到
188Confederate flags on the trucks.卡车上的邦联旗帜
189But you know what?但你知道吗?
190When you showed up and somebody had lost当你出现时 有人迷路了
191their home or they had lost their lives and you gave them a hug and you listened to them and you他们的家或者他们失去了生命 你给了他们一个拥抱 你听了他们和你
192said, you know, I see you and what you're going through and the country's here to help.说,你知道,我看到你 和你正在经历什么 和国家在这里帮助。
193The那个
194political stuff went away, right?政治方面的东西消失了,对吧?
195It got stripped away.它被剥了
196And now there was a very basic sense of现在有一种非常基本的感觉
197we look out for each other.我们互相照顾
198And that was a powerful moment.这是一个强大的时刻。
199And so you'd go through所以你会经历
200times where this was particularly important, obviously as commander in chief, for example.比如说作为总司令
201I remember there was a terrible incident in which a bunch of U.S. service members had been killed我记得发生了一起可怕的事件 一群美国军人被杀了
202and intelligence officers had been killed in one event.情报人员在一次事件中被杀。
203And I flew to Dover我飞到多佛
204and the plane came in and there's what's called a dignified transfer.飞机进来了,这叫做体面的转移。
205The caskets are这些棺材是
206offloaded from the military plane.从军机卸载。
207And generally the president during wartime isn't visiting all一般来说,战争时期的总统 不是所有的人
208time.时间。
209But on this particular occasion, I decided to go up and we stood there.但在这个特殊的时刻,我决定上去,我们站在那里。
210And it's a remarkable,这是很了不起的,
211solemn, deeply moving ceremony because it's just quiet.庄严的,深刻的感动仪式,因为它只是安静的.
212And myself, I think Attorney General还有我自己,我觉得总检察长
213Holder was there and you hold the salute.霍尔德在那里,你拿着礼服。
214These are caskets that are draped with the American flag.这些是用美国国旗画的棺材.
215And you hold the salute there.举起手来
216And it took, because of the tragedy, the number of people由于这场悲剧,我们花了这么多人
217who had been killed, we stood there for an hour or so.我们在那里站了一个小时左右。
218No speeches, no commentary.没有演讲,没有评论。
219It was just,这只是,
220again, a signal of what is important and the sacrifices that have been made.再次表明什么是重要的和已经作出的牺牲。
221And it's interesting how later on you'd see certain service members who, again, weren't有趣的是,以后你会看到 某些服务成员,再次,谁不是
222big Obama fans, but they would notice that.大奥巴马的粉丝,但他们会注意到这一点。
223And sometimes they'd come up and say,有时他们会说,
224I didn't vote for you, but that meant a lot to me.我没有投你票,但这对我很重要。
225So you're constantly, I think, in that office所以,我想你一直在办公室里
226trying to signify who are we and try to exhibit some of our best selves.试图表示我们是谁 并尝试展示一些我们最好的自我。
227Now, when I first came我第一次来的时候
228into office, the last point I'd make about this, you guys will remember there was quite a bit of进入办公室,我最后想说的是, 你们会记得有相当一点
229and I was very sensitive to not play into the celebrity aspects of the presidency.我非常敏感 不玩 的名人方面 总统。
230Because we were also going through an unprecedented financial crisis.因为我们正经历一场前所未有的金融危机。
231We had two wars going on.我们有过两次战争
232And so I spent my first year really just focused on policy and had kind of a lunch pail attitude.于是我花了第一年的时间 专注于政策, 并有某种午餐桶的态度。
233I did not want to be a show horse.我不想成为一匹表演马。
234I wanted to be a workhorse.我想成为一只工作马。
235And the country benefited from这个国家从
236our focus and we had a lot of really great people in the administration and we got a lot done.我们的焦点,我们有很多 真正的伟大的人 在行政部门,我们做了很多。
237But what I came to realize, partly because we got clobbered in a midterm, because unemployment was但是,我终于意识到, 部分是因为我们在一个中期 被抽打,因为失业
23810% the fallout from the financial crisis, part of my job was, in fact, to tell stories10%的金融危机的后果, 我工作的一部分,事实上,讲故事
239about the country, to tell stories about how we manage adversity, how we treat each other.讲述我们如何应对逆境 如何对待对方
240There was a poetry that I think Governor Cuomo of New York once said, you campaign in poetry and有首诗 我想纽约州州长Cuomo曾经说过 你用诗歌和
241govern in prose, but in fact actually you have to govern with a little bit of poetry as well.但实际上你也必须用一些诗歌来管理
242You have to be able to你必须能够
243inspire people because a lot of the issues that we work on are hard.激励人们,因为我们处理的许多问题很困难。
244And people get discouraged and progress can be slower than I think most folks want.人们感到沮丧,进步的速度可能比大多数人想要的要慢。
245Well, speaking of a challenge right now, you're on a campus and we are wrestling with what AI is,说到挑战 你现在在校园里 我们跟AI是怎样的
246what it means on a campus.在校园里是什么意思?
247You have recently, just this week even, you've been speaking about AI.你最近,就这周, 你一直在谈论AI。
248And I'm trying to remember where I saw it, but you had said perhaps the greatest risk of AI,我试图记住我在哪里看到它, 但你曾说也许最大的风险AI,
249and by the way, you acknowledge what good it could bring to us in science and medicine.顺便说一句,你承认它能给我们带来什么 科学和医学的好处。
250You're very clear about that.你很清楚这一点。
251But you identified a particular risk which was to have this tool但你发现了一种特殊的风险 就是拥有这个工具
252that is changing by the day, to have this tool in the hands of a very small number日复一日地改变着这个工具 在极少数人手中
253of private companies.私人企业。
254That presents a quite specific risk.这是一种非常具体的风险。
255How do you address that risk你怎么应对这种风险
256in a democracy?在一个民主国家?
257What's the democratic...什么是民主的...
258I can imagine what an autocratic response would be.我能想象到什么是专制的反应。
259This is ours.这是我们的。
260What is the democratic response to a tool, a power that we don't know what it is?对于一个工具,一个我们不知道它是什么的力量,民主的反应是什么?
261Again, I really think in our culture, in our system, in our government,再说一遍,我真的认为 在我们的文化, 在我们的制度, 在我们的政府,
262how do we regulate this or how do we address this?我们如何管理这一问题或如何解决这一问题?
263Okay, settle in here.好吧,在这里安顿下来。
264I'm a former senator.我是前参议员
265This might feel like a filibuster.这可能感觉像一个虚构的。
266But I'm going to take some time on this, and I want to go a little deep on it,但我要花一些时间 并且我想深入一些,
267partly because I am encouraged that this week, last couple of weeks, this has finally popped部分因为我受到鼓舞 这周,最后几周,终于出现了
268as a central issue.作为一个核心问题。
269People were talking about it.人们在谈论它。
270People were concerned about data centers.人们关注数据中心。
271But I don't think as a society, we fully grappled with how important但我不认为作为一个社会, 我们全力以赴地应对多么重要
272the choices we make around this will end up being over the next generation.我们的抉择最终会超越下一代
273So let me start with some basics.所以,让我从一些基本情况开始。
274I do not believe that this technology is overhyped.我不认为这种技术被过度夸张。
275The commercial benefits of it may be overhyped.其商业好处可能过于夸张。
276The valuations of AI companies may be overhyped.AI公司的估值可能过于夸张.
277The technology itself is not overhyped.技术本身并没有过度夸张。
278I've been tracking this for a long time.我已经追踪了很久
279In 2015-16, in the last couple of years of my presidency, I actually was focused on this,2015-16年,在我担任主席的最近几年里, 我实际上专注于这一点,
280pulled together a commission of the best minds in this area to talk about not just the technology,召集了这个领域最优秀的智商 来谈论科技,
281but also the political, social, economic, ethical concerns around this, produced a terrific report.以及政治、社会、经济、道德方面的关注, 产生了一份出色的报告。
282Apparently, it got put in the same bin as my pandemic proposal.显然,它被放进 与我的大流行建议相同的盒子。
283It wasn't picked up by the administration that followed me.跟踪我的人不是政府的人
284So we could see this coming, but part of what makes this profound is it accelerates.所以,我们可以预见到这一点, 但其中一部分 使这个深刻的是它加速。
285So这么说
286what is happening right now is we have reached this point of what's called recursive learning,现在发生的情况是,我们已经到了所谓的循环学习的地步,
287where essentially — and we had anticipated this, but we're now seeing it — the machines基本上——我们本该预料到的,但我们现在看到——机器
288are starting to be able to teach themselves.开始可以自己教书了
289They don't have to wait for humans to start他们不用等人类开始
290figuring things out.找出问题
291And so if you think about it as — let's say humans are teachers and the AI所以,如果你把它当作——让我们假设人类是老师和AI
292models are students.模特是学生
293As recently as, let's say, a year ago, 90 percent of the learning of these最近,比如说,一年前, 90%的学习这些
294models was given to them by the teacher, humans, and maybe 5 to 10 percent they could fill in some模特儿是老师和人类给他们的 也许有5%到10%的模特儿
295gaps and figure stuff out.找出漏洞和问题
296In less than a year, maybe even less than six months, we're now at a在不到一年,也许甚至不到六个月, 我们现在是一个
297stage where it's 50-50.舞台上是50到50岁
298And if the trend lines continue, the expectation is it might be 90-10.如果趋势线继续下去,预期可能是90-10。
299What this means is that we're now — if the learning track of AI has been like this,这意味着我们现在——如果AI的学习轨迹是这样的话,
300we're now hitting the hockey stick trajectory, where the models are going to get smarter and我们现在要进入冰球棒的轨迹 模特们会变得更聪明
301smarter and better and better at a much faster pace, at an exponential pace.更聪明 更好 更快 指数化
302What are the risks风险是什么?
303of that?那个?
304There's the big science fiction risk of, wow, these guys, these models get smarter than us,科幻小说的风险很大 这些家伙 这些模特比我们聪明
305and they decide humans are fine, but not necessary.他们决定人类是好的,但没必要。
306They start setting their own goals,他们开始制定自己的目标,
307and we — the killer robots, you know, kill us, or we bow down to them.我们——杀手机器人,你知道的,杀了我们,或者我们向他们鞠躬。
308I do not want to exaggerate that particular risk, but I will say there is a non-zero risk of我不想夸大这种特殊的风险,但我要说,存在着一种非零风险:
309the — non-zero chance of that happening.发生这种情况的并非零机会。
310But that's not actually the risk that I'm但这不是我的风险
311most concerned about, although it's the risk that gets most attention.最关心的, 虽然这是最受关注的风险。
312And the reason that's a risk is not because the computer models are conscious, necessarily.风险的原因不是因为计算机模型是意识的,必然的。
313It这个
314doesn't mean that they are necessarily — feel malice towards humans.这并不意味着他们一定是—— 对人类抱有恶意。
315It's just that if they只是,如果他们
316start setting their own agendas, they — you may get a misalignment between what they want to do开始设定他们自己的议程,他们——你可能会在他们想要做的事情之间产生错位
317and what we want them to do, and that gap can be dangerous.以及我们希望他们做什么, 而这种差距可能是危险的。
318That's problem number one.这是第一个问题。
319The more serious problem is these models are getting powerful enough that if they get in更严重的问题是,这些模型已经足够强大了, 如果他们能进入
320the hands of bad humans, they can do bad things.坏人的手,他们可以做坏事。
321They can be weaponized in certain ways.它们可以在某些方面成为武器。
322They can他们可以
323do a lot of mischief.做很多恶作剧。
324So the classic example would be, we will be at a point, even if there因此,典型的例子是,我们将处于一个阶段,即使那里
325are certain safeguards around it, if we haven't done a good enough job in the safeguards,如果我们在保障措施方面做得不够好
326it's conceivable that somebody could take the equivalent of a future Claude or OpenAI and say,可以想象有人可以 采取相当于未来的克劳德或OpenAI 说,
327I want to come up with a new strain of smallpox and release it in the New York subway system,我想想出一个新的天花菌株 并发布在纽约地铁系统,
328show me how it's done using ingredients I can buy at Home Depot.让我看看如何用我在家里买的配料
329And the computer might figure it out.电脑可能会想出办法
330Or somebody might not even try to be that destructive,或者有人可能甚至没有尝试 如此破坏性,
331but just say, hey, I want a program that maximizes my returns on investment in the stock market,但只要说,嘿,我想要一个程序 使我投资股市的回报最大化,
332do whatever it takes.随其所为.
333And if the instructions are illegal, don't worry about it.且指示如是非法,勿虑.
334And suddenly突然间
335that could bring down the stock market.那会让股票市场崩溃
336So that's a much bigger danger.所以这是一个更大的危险。
337And if I said如果我说
338the danger of the first, sort of what's called the singularity and superintelligence taking over,那种所谓的奇异和超智能接管的危险
339if I say that's still a relatively small chance of that, there's a great likelihood如果我说那还是个很小的机会 那很有可能
340that rogue AI can cause a lot of havoc.那个无赖的人工智能 会造成很大的破坏
341Then you've got issues of job displacement,那你有工作调动的问题
342and there's debates about how many jobs are going to be displaced.并有争论 有多少工作 要流离失所。
343I will say this,我会说,
344you and I are both lawyers, if I'm mistaken.你和我都是律师 如果我搞错了
345Currently, partners at law firms目前,律师事务所的合伙人
346rely on a bunch of junior associates.依赖一群初级律师
347They charge a lot of money for the time of those他们要花很多钱
348junior associates.初级律师。
349There's a pyramid.有一个金字塔。
350The promise to the associates is they work their way up and对合伙人的承诺是,他们努力提高
351at some point they'll be at the top of the pyramid and they can make some bank.在某个时候,他们会在金字塔的顶端 他们可以做一些银行。
352If you are investing in AI at a law firm and they're pretty expensive, the reason you're如果你在一家律师事务所投资AI, 而且它们很贵,你这样做的原因
353at the top of the pyramid is because you're at the top of the pyramid without those associates.在金字塔的顶部 因为你在金字塔的顶端 没有那些同伙
354And that's at a fairly high-skilled, highly trained job.这是一份相当高技能,训练有素的工作。
355So the economic disruptions that will come因此,经济的混乱将来临
356at this speed, I think, are going to be profound as well.以这种速度,我认为,也将是深刻的。
357And then finally you've got all kinds你终于有各种各样的
358of psychological issues like AI companions and the way I want a teddy bear who's becoming像AI同伴之类的心理问题 还有我想要的泰迪熊
359your kid's best friend and is trained to be as addictive as possible just like social media.你孩子的好朋友 被训练成像社交媒体一样上瘾
360So you've got all these issues.所以,你得到了所有这些问题。
361It's moving so fast that what happened over the last couple of动得如此之快 以至于最后几起事件
362weeks is that the leaders of what are called the frontier companies, the folks who are developing数周是所谓的前沿公司的领导人 正在发展的人
363the very cutting edge of these models, got scared enough themselves that they said,这些模特儿最尖端的一面 吓得自己都说
364you know what, we need to slow down.你知道吗,我们需要慢下来。
365现在其中两家公司,Anthropic和
366OpenAI, are about to launch massive IPOs that make all their employeesOpenAI,即将推出 大型IPO,使他们的所有员工
367百万亿 billions.
368It is unprecedented for companies in that position to对处于这种地位的公司来说,这是前所未有的:
369say, you know what, our stuff is a little bit dangerous and maybe we need to stop or slow it我们的东西有点危险 也许我们需要停下来或慢下来
370down.下来
371Not stop, but slow it down.不是停下来,而是慢下来。
372I say that because I think there are some people who think我这么说是因为我觉得有些人认为
373and understandably think, well, these tech companies, they might just be trying to block可以理解的是,这些科技公司 可能只是试图阻止
374out competition by saying we need to slow this down, et cetera.结束竞争,说我们需要 慢下来,等等。
375The mistrust of these big tech这些大科技的不信任
376companies and the amount of power that they have amassed, I understand.公司和他们积聚的力量,我理解
377I will say that in this我会说,在这个
378situation, they are genuinely worried about their product.他们确实担心自己的产品。
379All right.好吧,我们走。
380So now that I've got your所以,现在我得到了你的
381attention, the good news is that AI is a tool.注意,好消息是AI是一个工具。
382It's a machine.谓机曰.
383It's built to give you the illusion是用来给你幻觉的
384that it's not, but it is.虽然不是,但它是。
385It's a really sophisticated, remarkable technology, but it should这是一个非常精密,卓越的技术,但它应该
386be thought of as a tool, which means we have choices in terms of how we use this.被视作一种工具, 这意味着我们有选择 我们如何使用这一点。
387And you're你却
388right.对
389If we use it properly, if we direct it at drug development to cure cancer, it could如果我们正确使用它,如果我们引导它 药物开发治疗癌症,它可以
390vastly accelerate our ability to rid the world of cancer.大大加快我们消除世界癌症的能力。
391If we train it and say, figure out如果我们训练它,说,想清楚
392zero carbon emission energy sources, it could come up with a safe formula for nuclear零碳排放能源, 它可以提出一个安全的核公式
393fusion that actually gives us much more plentiful energy without warming the planet.核聚变可以给我们更多的能量 而不给地球升温
394Really useful stuff.非常有用的东西。
395But if we get this wrong, it could be chaotic and potentially catastrophic.但如果我们搞错了,那可能是混乱和潜在的灾难。
396So这么说
397my view this week has been it is good that some of the leading companies have said,我本周的看法是 一些主要公司说
398we need to slow this down.我们需要放慢速度。
399And we should encourage that.我们应该鼓励这一点。
400There have been some on the left who've said左边有人说过
401we shouldn't allow them to make that decision.我们不应该让他们做那个决定
402I agree that that can't be a long-term solution.我同意,这不可能是长期的解决办法。
403Government has to be regulating this.政府必须对此加以管制。
404I heard one of Donald Trump's main advisors on this我听到唐纳德·特朗普的主要顾问说
405make the argument that the market will take care of it.提出市场会照顾它的论点。
406These companies will这些公司会
407solve the safety issues because they have every incentive to do so.解决安全问题是因为他们有这样做的一切动机。
408If it turns out to be dangerous,如果结果很危险的话
409people will just sue them and they're worried about financial liability.人们只会告他们 他们担心经济责任
410That's not how we treat airlines or drug companies or food companies.我们不是这样对待航空公司 毒品公司 食品公司
411We now have 150我们现在有150个
412years of experience just letting the market do whatever it wants when it comes to things that多年的经验只是让市场 做它想要的 当事物
413deeply affect our health and our safety.对我们的健康和安全有着深刻的影响。
414And so there's no replacement for an effective因此,没有替代一个有效的
415government regulatory structure.政府监管结构。
416And the challenge we have is that obviously我们面对的挑战显然是
417we have a president currently that has said that's for losers.我们有个总统说那是给失败者的
418So we've got a gap所以,我们有一个缺口
419at least in a couple of years where things are moving really fast and we have an administration至少在这几年里 事情进展很快 我们有行政部门
420that is not capable of or willing to, I would argue both, of putting together a serious regulatory我主张,不能或不愿意 -- -- 两者 -- -- 制定严格的规章。
421framework.框架。
422Which is why I actually think we should be encouraging some sort of voluntary所以我认为我们应该鼓励 某种自愿
423industry restraint, not because it's a replacement, but because that's probably,行业约束,不是因为它是一个替代, 但因为这可能是,
424that may be the best we can do for now until we can get Congress and the White House这可能是我们现在所能做的最好 直到我们能得到国会和白宫
425to start getting serious about this.开始认真对待这件事
426I know some states are going to be trying to我知道有些州会试图
427initiate regulatory stuff, but it's hard to do this state by state just like gun control.启动监管,但很难做到这一点 状态就像枪支控制。
428In my home state, Illinois, you have some strict gun control laws, but the surrounding states do在我的家乡伊利诺伊州,你有一些严格的枪支管制法, 但周围的州有
429not, which means that they don't work.不,这意味着他们不工作。
430This is more dangerous and it moves faster.这更危险,动作更快
431Last point,最后一点
432I warned you I was going to filibuster, but I really wanted to get this stuff in我警告过你,我本来要做虚构的 但我真的想把这东西放进去
433because it really does matter.因为它真的很重要。
434I mentioned earlier that what's called the alignment problem我之前提到过 所谓的调整问题
435is one of the greatest dangers of AI.这是大赦国际的最大危险之一。
436If AI, if you give an instruction to AI and it's not precise,如果AI,如果你给AI一个指示, 它不准确,
437even if AI is not going rogue and it goes off and does things that, man, I didn't think of the fact即使AI不是去无赖 它去做一些事情,男人,我没想到的事实
438that when I said maximize my returns on investment that you might hack into a power grid to cause a当我说,我的投资收益最大化 你可能会黑进一个电网
439blackout because you shorted a stock, right?因为你缺了股票才停电 对吧?
440So you want to make sure that you are dealing with所以,你想确保 你处理
441core problem of alignment.核心对齐问题。
442There is another alignment problem, though, and that is不过,还有一个调整问题,即:
443the misalignment between how this technology can be best used for society这种技术如何最好地用于社会之间的不协调
444and the commercial imperatives of these companies.以及这些公司的商业需要。
445These companies have attracted more这些公司吸引了更多的
446capital and it's a bigger spend than the Apollo program.资本和它是一个更大的支出 比阿波罗计划。
447It is one of the biggest, if not the这是最大的,如果不是
448biggest, investment in infrastructure and science and technology in human history,人类历史上对基础设施和科技的投资
449and it's happening very fast.发生得很快
450And investors want to return.投资人想回来
451And what that means is that there is那意味着有
452on these companies, even if they're worried, that they have to come up with models that will公司,即使他们担心, 他们必须想出模型,
453justify all that investment.证明所有投资是合理的。
454So the big thing right now in AI is what are called agents,所以现在AI里最重要的事情 就是所谓的特工
455(原始内容存档于2018-09-26). Agentic AI.
456You guys, those of you who watch like Iron Man, right, Iron Man's in his little suit你们这些家伙,谁看 像铁人,对,铁人在他的小西装
457and he, I don't know, remember what the guy's name is, Jeeves or whatever, and he just talks他,我不知道,记得那家伙的名字,Jeeves什么的 他只是说话
458and the guy's like, he has a British accent or something, and he kind of goes, yes, sir,这家伙就像, 他有一个英国口音什么的, 他有点去,是的,先生,
459and he solves all these problems just with voice orders.他用语音命令解决所有这些问题
460Or if you've seen her, Scarlett Johansson,或者如果你见过她,斯嘉丽·约翰森
461a very cool, you know, agentic AI, that's the direction we're going in, because the notion is,一个非常酷的,你知道的,代理AI, 这就是我们要去的方向, 因为概念是,
462is that agentic AI will allow these AI bots to operate, these models to operate in the world.这个代理AI会允许这些AI bots操作, 这些模型在世界运行。
463Be your assistant, be the, you know, replace the law associate or the accountant.做你的助理, 做,你知道, 替换法律助理或会计师。
464The problem is问题是
465when you, if that's your business model, you want to then get it out.当你,如果那是你的商业模式, 你想得到它出来。
466And sometimes you have to test有时候你不得不测试
467it by letting it run wild in the world to see if it's actually working.让它在世界上狂奔 看看它是否有效
468And that's where a lot of这儿有很多
469danger may come in, because you're not in a sealed box.危险可能降临 因为你不在密封箱里
470It's in the internet.腾讯网.
471It's looking看着呢
472at your bank accounts, et cetera.在你的银行账户等等。
473I use that as an example to say, if we are thinking about AI我用这个例子来说明 如果我们在考虑AI
474just in terms of how do we cure cancer or get better energy, you can do that without having就我们如何治愈癌症或获得更好的能量而言,你可以不带
475agentic AI and having it just roaming free in the internet.在互联网上闲逛
476The reason you are doing that你这样做的原因
477is because you have to market a product that people will pay money for.因为你必须推销一种人们会花钱购买的产品。
478That's a misalignment这是错的
479between what our society needs and the commercial imperatives that these companies are facing,我们的社会需要 和这些公司面临的商业需要,
480not because necessarily they're trying to do bad things, but because, you know, they've got to,不是因为他们想做坏事 而是因为他们必须
481justify these valuations.证明这些估价是合理的。
482So that's one more reason why it is really important for us to have所以这是另一个原因,为什么我们真的有
483a competent government and a serious bipartisan conversation around this issue.一个称职的政府 和严肃的两党对话 在这个问题上。
484And we have to do我们必须这么做
485it fast.快点
486And I would encourage voters to pay attention to this.我鼓励选民注意这一点。
487If somebody does not have a如果有人没有
488good job, you should probably look for somebody else.干得漂亮,你应该找别人
489Sorry about that, but I wanted to...对不起,但我想...
490It's not the only thing we've got to deal with, but it's a big one.非唯此法而能治之,实为大也.
491So since this is family weekend and I want people to feel good, I'm going to go from既然这是家庭周末 我想让大家感觉好点
492bots to the threats to our democracy.威胁我们的民主。
493There you go.给你。
494Yeah, because we're doing great on that front.是啊,因为我们做的很好 在前面。
495Well, here you go.给你
496Well, happy news.很高兴见到你
497Okay, this is a question and a job offer.好吧,这是一个问题和工作邀请。
498Okay, which is this.好吧,这是这个。
499Say Colgate University was lucky enough to say说科尔盖特大学很幸运
500former constitutional law teacher at the University of Chicago is going to join our faculty芝加哥大学前宪法教师 将加入我们的队伍
501as a distinguished visiting professor of political science.作为政治学的杰出客座教授.
502Seems like a popular idea.看起来像一个流行的想法。
503And you're going to teach a course on democracy.而你要教授一个有关民主的课程。
504But only in September.但只在九月时.
505Only in September.只在九月时.
506We have a very good basketball team and you would like it very much here in the我们有一个非常好的篮球队 你会非常喜欢这里
507military.军事
508So you are now going to teach a course on democracy only in the early fall.所以,你现在只在秋天才讲授民主课程。
509But at this但在这
510moment, at this moment, what would you teach them?此刻,你会教他们什么?
511I mean, I can imagine you're a constitutional law我的意思是,我可以想象你是一个宪法法律
512expert.专家。
513You could do that.你可以做到这一点。
514You could say, hey, this is how the government works.你可以说,嘿,政府就是这样运作的。
515But this is a但这是
516moment.等会儿
517What would you do in an advanced seminar as a professor at Colgate about democracy?作为科尔盖特的教授 你会在高级研讨会上做什么 关于民主?
518I think it's a great question.我认为这是一个伟大的问题。
519I think the first thing I'd want to discuss with the students,我想第一件事 我想和学生们讨论
520since it's a seminar, I'd kind of open it up.由于这是一个研讨会, 我有点打开它。
521Everybody in this gym grew up in a fairly unique这个体育馆里每个人都在相当独特的地方长大
522time.时间。
523Even old people like me.即使是像我这样的老人
524The post-World War II era, in which, in fits and starts, and with二战后的时代, 适合并开始,
525Watergate and riots and assassinations, a lot of terrible stuff happened.水门 暴动和暗杀 发生了很多可怕的事情
526But if you were lucky但如果你运气好
527enough to live in this country during that period, you saw a broadening of democracy over time.在那段时期,你们看到民主随着时间推移而扩大。
528Civil rights movement, women's movement, LGBTQ movement, expansion of the franchise, one person,民权运动,妇女运动,LGBTQ运动,扩大选举权,一人,
529one vote, and a solidification post the McCarthy era of notions of civil liberties and freedom of并巩固了麦卡锡时代的公民自由和自由
530speech.说话
531And we built a pretty remarkable consensus around that.我们为此达成了一个相当了不起的共识。
532That was shared by both parties.双方都同意这一点。
533Both major political parties.两大政党.
534That began to break down.这开始崩溃。
535You can argue when.你什么时候可以争论。
536Maybe it was也许是
537according to Lyndon Johnson, the minute he signed the Civil Rights Act of 1964.根据林登·约翰逊的说法,他签署1964年民权法案的那一刻.
538You could argue that it happened as a consequence of changes in the economy and after Ronald Reagan.你可以说,这是经济变化的结果 和罗纳德·里根之后。
539But what you saw was people mistrusting that progress or taking it for granted.但是,你看到的是人们不信任这个进步 或者把它视为理所当然。
540And I think the main thing I would be teaching, just by virtue of looking at American history,我认为我的主要内容是教书, 只是通过看美国的历史,
541which I know that you studied deeply, is democracy is not self-executing.我知道你们深思熟虑的是 民主不是自动生效的
542It requires a certain set需要一定的设定
543of norms, habits, and social trust.规范、习惯和社会信任。
544And those muscles have to continually be built, built up肌肉必须不断积聚,不断积聚
545and passed on.和传承。
546You can't passively just sit there and say, you're in a democracy.你不能被动地坐在那里 说,你是一个民主国家。
547If you are not如果你没有
548engaged in it.参与其中.
549And I think that what we have seen for a variety of reasons is not just我认为,我们所看到的各种原因不仅仅是
550the ways in which inequality and economic power have distorted our democracy,不平等和经济力量扭曲我们民主的方式,
551but also how we've lost a lot of those habits of citizenship.但我们却失去了很多公民的习惯
552And还有
553the thing we now have to grapple with is how do we create not just a governmental system, but also我们现在必须处理的是,我们如何不仅建立一个政府系统,而且建立一个政府系统。
554education systems, civic institutions, what used to be called mediating institutions,教育系统、民间机构、过去所谓的调解机构、
555things like it used to be the church or unions or what have you.比如以前是教会或工会 或者你有什么
556How do we adapt those to a我们如何使这些适应
557information digital age that engages people and gives them a sense of agency?信息数字时代让人们参与并给他们一种代理感?
558Because if people因为如果有人
559don't feel like they have a responsibility to make democracy work, it doesn't work.不觉得他们有责任 使民主发挥作用, 它不起作用。
560It starts开始
561breaking down.崩溃。
562And the syllabus I'd have would start with the American Revolution.我从美国革命开始讲课程
563Those of you你们
564who don't want to take the entire course, since it's a fantasy, because他们不想接受整个课程 因为它是一个幻想,因为
565my wife's not going to be happy if I'm gone for the fall.我老婆不会高兴的 如果我去秋天。
566But if you wanted just a quick synopsis,但是如果你想要一个简单的概要
567watch Ken Burns' American Revolution.看着肯·伯恩斯的美国革命
568Six parts, I think two hours each, 12 hours, you can do it on6个部分,我认为每个2小时,12小时,你可以做到这一点
569a treadmill.跑步车
570What is striking when you watch it is just how contingent this whole experiment was.当你看着它时,令人惊讶的是 这整个实验是多么的意外。
571And it started truthfully with a bunch of rich guys not wanting to pay their taxes.开始真的 一群有钱人不想交税
572Democracy wasn't the core animating principle at the start of the American Revolution.民主并不是美国革命开始时的核心动画原则.
573There was frustration with the empire and the colonialists feeling as if they were对帝国和殖民者感到沮丧
574being imposed upon.被强加。
575And it was a fairly narrow agenda.这是一个相当狭窄的议程。
576And over time, what happened is that随着时间的推移,发生的事情是
577these actions behind the initial actions like the Boston Tea Party, you start getting在波士顿茶党等初期行动背后的这些行动 你开始得到
578an articulation of this broader idea.阐述这个更广泛的想法。
579Props to Thomas Paine, by the way.顺便说一句,是给托马斯·培恩的
580That guy actually其实那个家伙
581believed in democracy.相信民主。
582And so you start getting these ideas circulating about what democracy means所以你开始得到这些想法 传播民主意味着什么
583for ordinary people.给普通人
584And people like Phyllis Wheatley.还有菲利斯·惠特利这样的人
585After an American woman suddenly gets一个美国女人突然得到
586Thomas Paine, she reads this and she says, you know what, this is a good idea, this idea of the托马斯・培恩,她读了这个 她说,你知道, 这是一个好主意, 这个想法
587franchise and everybody having a say in their government.选举权和每个人在政府中有发言权。
588This might apply to black people,这可能适用于黑人,
589or it might apply to women.也可能适用于妇女。
590And slowly, by the time you get to the Declaration of Independence,慢慢地,当你到了独立宣言,
591as flawed as it is, you do have this precious idea.你确实有这个宝贵的想法
592I think one of the best ideas in human history,我认为人类历史上最好的想法之一,
593if not the best.如果不是最好的话。
594We're all created equal.我们都是平等的
595We're all endowed with certain inalienable rights.我们都有不可剥夺的权利
596And then we have to try to operationalize it.然后,我们必须尝试操作它。
597But I say that because it is not a static thing但我这么说是因为这不是静态的东西
598and it's not a given.它不是一个给定。
599And I can give you all kinds of specifics about how we might get rid of the我可以给你各种细节 关于我们如何摆脱
600filibuster or reform campaign finance or this or that or the other.或改革竞选资金 或这个或那个或那个
601But at its core, democracy means但民主的核心是:
602everybody in this auditorium and beyond says, I have a say in how we collectively live and I这间礼堂内外的每个人都说,我对我们的集体生活有发言权,我
603have a responsibility that goes beyond my narrow self-interest to make sure that thing works.承担着超越我狭隘的自我利益的责任 确保那玩意能起作用
604And we have to find better ways in this ultra-fast,我们必须找到更好的方法 在这个超快,
605dynamic, disruptive society that we're living through to recreate that sense of agency on the充满活力的 破坏性的社会,我们正在经历 以重新创造 代理感
606part of individuals.部分个人。
607And that we believe that's important enough that there are times where we我们认为这已经足够重要了 有的时候我们
608will set aside our interests.将搁置我们的利益。
609We can have debates.我们可以进行辩论。
610I'm just going to give you one specific example.我给你们一个具体的例子
611We can have debates about what our marginal tax rate should be.我们可以讨论一下我们的边际税率应该是什么。
612And I would argue that我会说
613wealthy people in this country do not pay enough in taxes.这个国家的富人交不起足够的税。
614And the very ultra wealthy oftentimes和非常富有的时候
615pay no taxes and have figured out how to game the system.不交税 并且已经知道如何玩弄这个系统。
616But we can have that debate.但我们可以进行辩论。
617But when I但当我
618hear billionaires, not millionaires, but folks who cannot spend ever a fraction of their wealth听到的亿万富翁,不是百万富翁, 但人们谁不能花 他们的财富的一小部分
619and neither can their kids or their grandkids, say they are moving to Florida not because they他们的孩子和孙子也不能说 他们搬到佛罗里达不是因为他们
620love Florida.爱佛罗里达。
621They might.也许吧
622It's nothing against Florida, nice weather.这与佛罗里达州无关 天气不错
623But because they're trying但因为他们在努力
624to avoid a state tax, which is a rounding error in their wealth.避免州税,这是他们财富的四舍五入错误。
625Now there's a certain mentality现在有一种心理
626there that says, I should not have to give up anything.上面写着 我不应该放弃任何东西
627Despite the fact that that wealth,尽管那些财富
628whatever you want to argue about how hard they worked or this or that or the other,不管你想争论什么 他们工作多么辛苦 或者这个 或者那个或者另一个
629that wealth was, the foundation of that wealth was a social order and a system that had财富的基础是一个社会秩序和制度,而社会秩序和制度
630amazing universities and roads and fire protection and a judicial system that could惊人的大学和道路、防火和司法系统能够
631enforce contracts, all of which cost some money to maintain.执行合同,所有这些都需要一些钱来维持。
632If we don't get that right,如果我们不正确,
633then the mechanics of democracy won't be enough, as we've seen, because we've just seen a whole那么,民主的力学就不够了 正如我们所看到的,因为我们刚刚看到了一个整体
634bunch of laws in place that have been blown through in ways I would never have anticipated.一堆法律已经到位 被吹穿的方式 我从来没有预料到。
635My imagination could not foresee some of the stuff that's going on right now.我的想象力无法预见现在发生的事情
636I believe there was我认为有
637只是宣布白宫决定 CNN MSN MSNOW
638maybe the New York Times included, you just can't come to the White House press briefings anymore也许纽约时报包括了 你不能再来白宫做新闻简报了
639because you're giving the current president unfavorable coverage.因为你给现任总统 不好的报道。
640I'm trying to thinkи稱稱
641what would have happened if I had said, you know what, Fox News, you're out of here.如果我说 福克斯新闻社 你该走了
642It's unimaginable.这是难以想象的。
643But the point I'm making here is that if you have a certain cohort,但我要说的是 如果你有某个群体
644let's call it 30 to 35 percent of the country right now, which thinks that's okay, well what现在全国百分之三十到三十五的人 都觉得没关系
645that means is we have not developed the kind of understanding of what democracy requires,这意味着我们还没有形成对民主要求的理解,
646and we've got to shore that back up.并且我们得靠岸 备份。
647I don't think that's inevitable.我不认为这是不可避免的。
648I don't think我不觉得
649all is lost on that front, but we have to roll up our sleeves and get working.但是我们必须卷起袖子去干活
650I want to build on what you actually just did, and then I want to move that to the work you could do我想以你刚刚所做的为基础,然后,我想把它转到你可以做的工作上
651in the Obama Center.在奥巴马中心。
652Because when I asked you about democracy, what you did was offer an因为当我问你民主时 你所做的就是
653intellectual history of the American Revolution.美国革命思想史.
654I would argue that great universities, which are我想说,伟大的大学,是
655under significant strain right now, that's the work of great universities to train people to现在压力很大,这是伟大的大学 训练人们去
656understand the intellectual history of what just happened.了解刚才发生的知识史.
657So, yay for universities.所以,对大学。
658But you're但你还是
659also making the argument that these are practices and norms that can be inculcated,还辩称,这些做法和规范是可以灌输的,
660developed muscles.肌肉发达
661When I look at the Obama Center, the core of it is training leaders.当我看着奥巴马中心时,它的核心是培训领导人。
662Can you train people to be leaders?你能训练别人当领袖吗?
663Can you train people in democracy?你能训练人们民主吗?
664Absolutely.当然
665Look, I was elected president because I had an army of 20-something-year-olds,我当选总统是因为我有一队20多岁的军队
666basically the age of a bunch of the young people who are about to graduate, who we dropped into基本上就是一群即将毕业的年轻人的时代, 我们投身于
667cornfields in Iowa and small towns in New Hampshire, and created a democratic movement爱荷华州和新罕布什尔州小城镇的玉米田 创造了民主运动
668and process, out of whole cloth in some ways, that then swamped all the professional consultants and和过程,从整个布 在某些方面, 然后沼泽所有的专业顾问
669pollsters and machinery, upended the political system.民意测验员和机器 改进了政治制度
670And it was kids who did it.是孩子们干的
671Because actually, these habits I talk about about democracy因为实际上,这些习惯 我谈论民主
672draw on things that are inside of us.利用我们心中的东西
673I'll give you a simple example.举个简单的例子
674So,这么说
675the leaders we have vary in both the work they do and the stages they are in their careers.我们的领导人在他们的工作和他们职业生涯的各个阶段都各不相同。
676I一、导 言
677have leaders for young boys and girls who are still in secondary school.由仍然在中学的男女青年领导。
678We've got a program我们有一个程序
679called Voyagers for university students who are interested in public service careers.给对公共服务事业感兴趣的大学生打电话。
680But we also但我们也
681have a leaders program not just here but in Europe and Africa and Asia that includes members of不仅在这里,而且在欧洲、非洲和亚洲都有一个领导者方案,其中包括来自
682parliament or chiefs of staff of governments or doctors who have already set up women's health已经建立妇女健康制度的议会或政府办公室主任或医生
683in sub-Saharan Africa or are working on misinformation or human rights lawyers in Russia或正在研究俄罗斯错误信息或人权律师
684or conservationists in Vietnam.或越南的保护主义者。
685People in their 30s who have already done amazing stuff,30多岁的人已经做了惊人的事
686we get them together.我们让他们在一起。
687The first thing we do is we have a whole module just around我们要做的第一件事是 我们有一个完整的模块就在附近
688listening to people.听别人说
689Because it turns out that you can teach people to tap into their curiosity因为你可以教别人挖掘他们的好奇心
690about other people, people who are not like them.关于其他人, 和他们不一样的人。
691Instead of going into a community saying,而不是进入一个社区说,
692I want to be a leader and I've got a plan, what we say is go into a community and ask people我想当一个领袖,我有一个计划, 我们所说的是进入一个社区,问人们
693who they are and what their stories are and what their traditions are and what their values are.他们是谁,他们的故事是什么,他们的传统是什么,他们的价值观是什么。
694And be quiet and show some humility because it turns out that if you are open to listening,安静点,谦卑一点 因为发现如果你愿意听
695people will tell you amazing things about their lives.人们会告诉你关于他们生活的惊人的事情。
696They'll talk about the immigrant他们会谈论移民
697grandparents who came here and sitting listening to their grandma's stories and they'll talk about祖父母来到这里,坐着听奶奶的故事 他们会谈论
698the great migration and how African American family in Alabama made their way to Chicago亚拉巴马的非裔美国人 是如何到达芝加哥的
699and they'll talk about their fears and their hopes.他们会谈论他们的恐惧和希望
700And when you do that, when you listen当你这样做,当你听
701to people's stories and you start stitching it together with yours, you are now creating在人们的故事中,你开始 缝合它与你的, 你现在正在创造
702a relationship with them that transcends just self-interest.一种超越自身利益的关系
703And you've built some trust and你建立了一些信任
704now you're in a position to actually say, you know what, we actually share this stuff,现在你可以说,你知道, 我们实际上分享这些东西,
705maybe we should work together and get this done.也许我们应该一起努力 完成这件事
706What do you think?你觉得呢?
707So you can teach, and I'm just using that as one example, you can teach these skills.所以,你可以教书, 而我只是用这个例子, 你可以教这些技能。
708And I think我觉得
709one of the things that we are missing and what universities at their best can provide is developing我们缺少的东西之一 以及大学能提供什么
710a practice of how do we talk to each other and see each other and recognize each other如何彼此交谈 彼此相见 互相认识
711and respect each other even in deep disagreement.并尊重彼此,即使彼此分歧甚深。
712That is the essence of democracy but I would also这是民主的本质,但我也会
713argue is the essence of the best forms of leadership.争论是最佳领导形式的实质。
714There's another model of leadership还有另一种领导模式
715and it's got a longer lineage which involves hierarchy and dominance and submission and它有更长的分界线 涉及到等级和统治 和顺从,
716scapegoating and racism and anti-Semitism and putting women in their place and putting替罪羊、种族主义和反犹太主义、让妇女代替她们、让她们
717gay people back in the closet.同志们回到衣柜里
718That is, and is backed by coercion and violence and that is a,即,并辅以胁迫和暴力,即,
719you know, a long-time mechanism for rule and power.你知道,一个长期的统治和权力机制。
720But the American experiments但美国的实验
721premised on this different idea at its best and we had conquest and we had slavery and我们拥有了征服和奴役
722Native Americans were removed from their land and we did a bunch of terrible things.美洲原住民被从他们的土地上带走 我们做了很多可怕的事情
723The man is to pray.此人应礼拜.
724But at our best, what came out of that American Revolution was this different idea.但是,从我们最好的情况来看,美国革命的结果就是这个不同的想法。
725And that's the kind of leadership we not only believe we can develop, but I would argue而这就是那种领导,我们不仅相信 我们可以发展, 但我会认为
726has to be developed at this time, at this moment in our history.此时此刻,在我们历史的这个时刻,必须发展起来.
727Because the world — what the interconnectivity has done is it has — the worlds have collided.因为世界——互联性所做的就是它已经做了——世界相撞.
728You have villages in my grandmother's — you have people in my grandmother's village in你在我的祖母的村子里有村庄 在我的祖母的村子里有人
729Alago, in rural Kenya, who are watching the Kardashians on their cell phones.肯尼亚农村的阿拉戈,
730Part of why culture wars seem to accelerate and people feel so threatened is because it文化战争似乎在加速,人们感到如此威胁的部分原因就是
731used to be that folks in San Francisco and folks in Lubbock, Texas, didn't necessarily曾经是旧金山的人 和德克萨斯州卢博克的人 不一定是
732know how the other was living.知道另一个是如何生活的。
733And now it's in their faces and they feel threatened by that.现在它出现在他们脸上, 他们觉得受到威胁。
734And if we can't develop a capacity to see each other and recognize our common humanity,如果我们不能发展一种能力 互相认识和承认我们的共同人性,
735the kinds of old-style leadership with the destructive weapons we have and the means我们拥有的毁灭性武器和手段的老式领导
736of propaganda that we currently have, that will be a recipe for tragedy.这将会是一场悲剧
737And we've got a better option.我们有更好的选择
738It's more fun not hating each other and trying to get along and working together.更乐不恨彼此,并欲相与共事.
739So at least that's my view.所以至少这是我的看法。
740You know, I'm listening to you and we're getting near the end of our time — we're你知道,我在听 你和我们接近 结束的时间——我们
741actually at the end of our time, but I'm going to ask this question.实际上,在我们的时间结束时, 但我要去问这个问题。
742Listening to you and remembering the optative political frame of hope that you brought,倾听你的心声 记住你带来的 乐观的政治希望框架
743and I look at the Obama Center and its work, what percentage of your work now is based我看看奥巴马中心及其工作, 你的工作现在有多少百分比的基础
744on this faith in this optimism, hope?相信这种乐观,希望?
745Or how much of it is like a rearguard action of despair?或者说,其中多少像绝望的后卫行动?
746No, look, I mean, you were asking about the role of universities, right?不,你看,我的意思是,你问 关于大学的作用,对不对?
747My university years involved some excessive partying at the beginning, and then I kind我的大学年限 包括一些过度的派对 一开始,然后我表示
748of flipped a switch and became sort of way too serious and isolated and almost monkish转动开关 变得太严重 孤立和几乎僧侣
749for the latter part of it.对于它的后半部分。
750I was all out of balance trying to figure stuff out.我完全没有平衡 试图找出事情。
751But the one thing that happened to me during my time in the university is — and I think但我在大学期间遇到的一件事是 我想
752this is an essential role of a university, and particularly liberal arts universities这是一所大学,特别是文科大学的重要作用
753— to get you to think deeply about what are your deepest commitments, your values,让你深刻思考你最深的承诺和价值
754do you have a code, are there things you're willing to sacrifice for, what gives meaning你有密码吗? 你愿意牺牲什么?
755and purpose to your life.和目的 你的生活。
756And that was a great gift and a luxury, and each university has to do different things.这是一个伟大的天赋和奢侈, 每个大学必须做不同的事情。
757Or can choose to do different things.或能选择作不同事.
758Some universities, their mission is we've got to make sure that people find work in有些大学,他们的使命是 我们必须确保人们找到工作
759a new economy and are trained, and that's a noble mission and pursuit.新的经济 并经过训练, 这是一个崇高的使命和追求。
760But during that time, particularly in your late teens, early 20s, that's the time to在那段时间里,特别是在你十几岁左右, 20多岁时,是时候
761figure out what's important to you.想想什么对你很重要
762I say all that because one conclusion that I drew from this period of time, both partying我这样说是因为我从这段时期得出的一个结论, 双方都是
763and reading a lot of books, was that the world is complicated and humans are really complicated.读了很多书, 因为世界是复杂的, 人类是真正的复杂。
764And we are wandering through, during this brief time that we have, with good and bad我们正在徘徊, 在这短暂的时间里,我们有,有好有坏
765and beauty and ugliness and violence and love constantly pulling at us and happening to美丽、丑陋、暴力、爱情 不停的拉着我们 并发生
766us and inside us.我们和内心
767And where we get power is when we make a decision to pursue and embody and try as best we can而我们获得权力的地方,就是当我们决定 追求,体现和尝试,尽我们所能
768imperfectly to live out a sense that, you know what, this is a wondrous, amazing journey不完美地活在一种感觉, 你知道,这是一个奇妙,奇妙的旅程
769I'm on and let me share it with some fellow travelers and do my best and work through我开始,让我和一些同行分享 尽我最大的努力,通过
770the tough times and appreciate the good ones.艰难的时光 欣赏好的时光
771And so hope for me, and I've said this in the speech that kind of launched my national我满怀希望,我在演说中说过, 启动我的祖国
772political career, about hope is never blind optimism and hope is grounded in a clear-eyed政治生涯,关于希望绝不是盲目的乐观,希望根植于明眼
773recognition that tough things happen and the world is deeply imperfect.承认艰难的事情发生了,而世界却非常不完美。
774But we have the agency, we make choices about what we feed and what we starve.但我们有这个机构, 我们做选择 我们喂什么,我们挨饿。
775And I'd rather feed in that sense that there is a commonality and a goodness in people我宁愿从这个意义上来养活人,人们有共性和善良
776And I'd rather starve those parts of me that are greedy or selfish or scared or mean.我宁愿饿死我那些贪婪 自私 害怕或卑鄙的人
777And I think that's something that we all wrestle with and we all have the capacity to make我想这是我们都在挣扎的东西 我们都有能力做
778our own choices.我们自己的选择。
779I like my choice and I'd like it for the country as well.我喜欢我的选择 我也喜欢这个国家的选择
780All right.好吧,我们走。
781Thank you.谢谢
782Of course I have more questions, but I think to end on that note, which is not just a political我当然还有更多的问题,但我想以这一点结束,这不仅是一个政治问题。
783manifesto, but a manifesto that should animate any college or university.宣言,但宣言 应该活跃任何学院或大学。
784So you're hired to be a professor, this whole thing was a job interview.所以你被聘为教授 这整件事都是面试
785Let's thank President Obama for being here.让我们感谢奥巴马总统来到这里。
786It's really true.这是真的。
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