【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授

共 6 集

剧集目录

集	标题	时长
P1	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	1:19:10
P3	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	1:10:57
P4	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	1:20:21
P5	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	52:59
P6	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	1:06:23
P7	【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授	57:03

P1 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p01 1. 1.论证的特性. (P1)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p01 1. 1.论证的特性. (P1)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 1:19:10

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	Hello there, I'm Marianne Talbot.	你好我是玛丽安・塔尔博特
0:02	I'm Director of Studies in Philosophy at Oxford University's Department for Continuing Education.	我是牛津大学继续教育系哲学研究主任.
0:07	We're about to start a six-week course called Critical Reasoning for Beginners, and we're going to go through looking at how to recognise an argument,	我们即将开始一个为期六周的课程, 叫做“初学者的关键原因”, 我们将要研究如何识别一个论点,
0:15	what arguments are, the different types of arguments, that's deduction and induction, and we'll be looking at how to set out arguments logic book style,	辩论是什么, 不同类型的辩论, 这是推理和诱导, 我们将研究如何设置辩论逻辑书风格,
0:24	how to analyse them, then we'll be looking at how to evaluate them, and finally we'll look at fallacies, which are arguments that look like good arguments,	如何分析它们, 然后我们将研究如何评估它们, 最后我们将研究谬误, 这些论点看起来是好的论点,
0:32	but which are bad arguments.	但这些是恶辩。
0:34	Okay, so we're going to start off on the first week with how to recognise arguments and what the nature of an argument is.	好吧,所以我们要从第一周开始如何识别争论和争论的性质是什么。
0:42	Right, okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
0:44	You're all here to do Critical Reasoning.	你们都是来做关键原因的
0:48	Okay, why do you want to do Critical Reasoning?	好吧,你为什么要做关键原因?

展开字幕全文（1217 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Hello there, I'm Marianne Talbot.	你好我是玛丽安・塔尔博特
2	I'm Director of Studies in Philosophy at Oxford University's Department for Continuing Education.	我是牛津大学继续教育系哲学研究主任.
3	We're about to start a six-week course called Critical Reasoning for Beginners, and we're going to go through looking at how to recognise an argument,	我们即将开始一个为期六周的课程, 叫做“初学者的关键原因”, 我们将要研究如何识别一个论点,
4	what arguments are, the different types of arguments, that's deduction and induction, and we'll be looking at how to set out arguments logic book style,	辩论是什么, 不同类型的辩论, 这是推理和诱导, 我们将研究如何设置辩论逻辑书风格,
5	how to analyse them, then we'll be looking at how to evaluate them, and finally we'll look at fallacies, which are arguments that look like good arguments,	如何分析它们, 然后我们将研究如何评估它们, 最后我们将研究谬误, 这些论点看起来是好的论点,
6	but which are bad arguments.	但这些是恶辩。
7	Okay, so we're going to start off on the first week with how to recognise arguments and what the nature of an argument is.	好吧,所以我们要从第一周开始如何识别争论和争论的性质是什么。
8	Right, okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
9	You're all here to do Critical Reasoning.	你们都是来做关键原因的
10	Okay, why do you want to do Critical Reasoning?	好吧,你为什么要做关键原因?
11	A couple of you tell me what you want to do it for.	你们几个告诉我你想干什么
12	What do you think you can't do now that you want to be able to do if I don't do this course?	你觉得你现在不能做什么如果我不做这个课程,你想做什么?
13	I'd like to sharpen my sense of argumentation.	欲磨净辩才觉.
14	Sharpen your sense of argumentation?	使你的争辩感更敏锐?
15	Is there anyone you want to argue with in particular?	你特别想和谁争论?
16	Half of a wife.	半个妻子.
17	Half of a wife, yeah.	半个妻子,是的。
18	It won't work if you don't, you'll be married to your wife.	若不从,则不可行,则娶妻矣.
19	There's only two terms speaking, but particularly political arguments and debate.	说话只有两个术语,但尤其是政治争论和辩论.
20	Right, okay, so another hand over here.	好,好,再过来一个
21	Detect the flaws in other people's arguments.	找出别人争论的缺点
22	You want to be able to detect the flaws in other people's arguments, okay.	你想能够发现别人争论的缺陷,好吗?
23	What about your own arguments?	那你自己的争论呢?
24	That too, because that's very important.	这也是,因为那很重要。
25	One of the things I'll talk about today is something called the principle of charity, and you'll see where I'll talk about that.	我今天要谈的一件事是所谓的慈善原则, 你会看到我在哪里会谈论这一点。
26	I also don't want to get lost as a valid point maker, so to actually be able to have conviction of what I'm saying if I believe in it and not let someone more intellectual and eloquent beat me down.	我也不想迷失为一个有效的点评者, 所以实际上,如果我相信的话, 就能对我说的有信念, 并且不要让更聪明和雄辩的人打我。
27	Right, okay, and one thing that will help, I mean it won't do the trick completely, because of course that confidence has to come from you, but it will help to feel that you know where you are in arguments, certainly.	好吧,还有一件事会有所帮助, 我的意思是它不会完全起作用, 因为当然,自信必须来自你, 但是它会帮助你感觉你知道你在哪里在争论,当然。
28	One at the back there.	一个在后面。
29	I read the overview of Thomas More, and most of that was in part about the logic, and I thought, oh, that's interesting.	我读了托马斯·莫尔(Thomas More)的概述, 其中大部分是关于逻辑的, 我认为,这很有趣。
30	Uh huh, actually that's how I came to philosophy, something like that.	嗯,嗯,实际上,这就是我来哲学,类似的东西。
31	I did an open university course.	我做了一个开放的大学课程。
32	I was a mature student, not very mature, 26, and as I said, it was an open university course, they did logic in those days, formal, symbolic logic.	我是一个成熟的学生, 不太成熟,26岁, 正如我所说, 这是一个开放式的大学课程, 他们在那些时候做了逻辑, 正式的,象征性的逻辑。
33	And I tried to do this logic, and I found it so difficult, really, really difficult, and I sat up all night and still trying to do it.	我尝试了这个逻辑, 我发现它是如此困难, 真的,真的困难, 我整晚都坐着,仍然在努力去做。
34	And in the morning I realized that I'd had such a much nicer night, much better night than I'd had with all sorts of other things you might stay up all night to do.	早上,我意识到,我有一个如此美好的夜晚, 比我有更好的夜晚与各种其他事情你可能熬夜做。
35	I really enjoyed it, and that's what got me into philosophy in the first place.	我非常喜欢它,这就是我进入哲学的第一。
36	I came, I think it's very nice at school at 15, I came on here, eventually, eventually, that took quite a long time.	我来了,我觉得学校15岁的时候很好, 我来到这里,最终, 花了很长时间。
37	But I have never lost my love of philosophy, I've never lost my love of learning, and that's all down to philosophy, this confidence you have in argument.	但我从未失去对哲学的热爱, 我从未失去对学习的热爱, 而这都归结于哲学, 这种你对争论的信心.
38	Because if you can learn how to argue properly, you can, nothing is hidden from you in principle.	因为如果你能学习如何正确争论,你可以,原则上没有什么是隐藏在你身上的.
39	It's always possible to tease out the arguments and to evaluate the arguments and to take yourself that step further.	总是可以挑逗辩词,评价辩词,让自己更进一步.
40	And so I hope that after this series of six lectures, of course you're not going to go away knowing all about logic and knowing all about how to reason properly.	所以我希望在这一系列的六场讲座之后, 你当然不会去了解逻辑和如何正确解释。
41	But I hope what I'll have done by that time is given you more confidence and given you a feeling for the fun it can be, so that you'll go away and start looking at yourself.	但我希望那时我所做的,会给你更多的信心,并给你一种对它可能带来的乐趣的感觉,这样你就会离开,开始看着自己.
42	And I'll be very happy to pass on some reading or give some other ideas of how you might do that.	我很乐意通过一些阅读或提供一些其他的想法你可能这样做。
43	Right, okay, let me tell you about Monty Python.	好吧,好吧,让我告诉你关于蒙蒂・派森。
44	I'm sure some of you know about it, but what it is, it's called the Argument Clinic.	我敢肯定,你们中有些人知道它, 但是它是什么, 它叫做争辩诊所。
45	And one man, I've forgotten his name, goes in and says, John Cleese, sitting there, and he says, is this the place for arguments or something like that?	一个人,我忘了他的名字, 进去说,约翰·克莱塞,坐在那里, 他说,这是辩论的地方还是类似的东西?
46	And John Cleese says, what if it is, or, well, I'm here for an argument, well, no you haven't, yes I have, no you haven't, yes I have.	John Cleese说,如果它是, 或者,嗯,我在这里辩论,嗯,不,你没有, 是的,你有,没有, 是的,我有。
47	And this goes on, he says, you're not arguing, you're contradicting me.	他说,你没有在争吵,你在跟我矛盾
48	And John Cleese says, no I'm not.	约翰·克莱斯说,我不是。
49	He says, yes you are, no I'm not, yes you are.	他说,是的,你是, 不,我不是,是的,你是。
50	And so it goes on, then presses a bell, that's the end of the session, he says, but that wasn't five minutes.	所以它继续,然后按铃, 这就是会议的结束,他说, 但这不是五分钟。
51	Yes it was, says John Cleese, no it wasn't, yes it was, I'm not arguing, says John Cleese, and so on.	是的,约翰·克莱塞说,不是的,是的,我没有争论,约翰·克莱塞说,等等。
52	And that was supposed to be an amusing introduction, but what I wanted to move on to is the idea that John Cleese had it wrong.	这本来是一个有趣的介绍, 但我想继续的想法是约翰·克莱塞有它是错误的。
53	Of course, argument isn't a set of contradictions, it isn't a set of just you say one thing and I say another, that doesn't get us anywhere.	当然,争论不是一套矛盾,也不是一套你只说一件事,我只说另一件事,这对我们没有好处.
54	Part of the point of argument is to move us on from where we are to somewhere a bit further.	争论的部分原因是把我们从我们所处的位置推向更远的某个地方。
55	Just imagine if the only way we could find out about the world was through our senses.	想象一下如果我们能发现世界的唯一方法就是通过我们的感官
56	If we could see one thing and form one belief, but not take that belief and move on to another belief.	如果我们能看到一件事,形成一种信仰,但不要把这种信仰带到另一种信仰。
57	So you would say that that's blue and the carpet's blue, but you couldn't say when two things are the same colour they match, therefore the chair and the carpet match.	所以,你会说这是蓝色的,地毯是蓝色的, 但你不能说当两件事情是相同的颜色, 所以椅子和地毯是匹配的。
58	Do you see, whatever, argument takes us from where we are to where we want to be or sometimes where we don't want to be.	你看,不管怎样,争论把我们从我们想要的地方带到我们想要的地方,或者有时我们不想成为的地方.
59	We'll never get very far without argument.	没有争论我们永远走不远
60	Can we turn the lights off again?	我们能再关灯吗?
61	Yes, if I can.	是的,如果我可以的话。
62	There we are.	我们到了。
63	Thank you.	谢谢
64	Thank you very much.	谢谢
65	We're awash with technicians here.	我们这里有很多技术人员
66	Okay, so let's have a look at the definition of argument.	好吧,让我们来看看辩论的定义。
67	An argument is a set of sentences and I put sentences there after you wouldn't believe it,	争吵是一组句子, 我在那里做出句子,因为你不相信,
68	spending half an hour wondering whether I should put statements, propositions, expressions of statements or something.	花了半个小时想知道我是否该发表演讲提议表达言论
69	But I'm putting sentences and anyone who wants to quarrel with that's most welcome to do so.	但我在判刑,任何人谁想争吵, 这是最欢迎这样做。
70	A set of sentences such that one of them is being said to be true and the others are being offered as reasons for believing the truth of the first.	一系列的句子,比如说其中的一句是真实的,而其他的句子则被作为相信第一者的真理的理由。
71	That's all there is to an argument.	辩才如此.
72	I put others with the S in brackets here because of course we might say that one thing is true on the basis of just one other sentence.	我在这里把其他的S放在括号内,因为我们当然可以说,只有一句话是真实的。
73	So here's an argument.	故此辩才.
74	It's Friday.	礼拜五
75	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday so Marianne will be wearing jeans today.	玛丽安星期五总是穿牛仔裤所以玛丽安今天会穿牛仔裤
76	That's a set of sentences that is, as a matter of fact, an argument.	这是一套句子,其实是争论.
77	What are the sentences?	判决是什么?
78	Tell me what the sentences are.	告诉我句子是什么
79	This is an easy question to lull you into a false sense of security.	这个问题很容易让你陷入一种虚假的安全感。
80	It's Friday.	礼拜五
81	It's Friday, that's one sentence.	这是星期五,这是一句话。
82	I've got a comma after it because I've gone straight on to the other sentence.	后有逗号因直指别句.
83	But that doesn't matter, it is Friday as a sentence.	但是这不重要,是星期五作为句子
84	Next one.	下一个
85	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday.	玛丽安每周五都穿牛仔裤
86	I told you it was easy.	我告诉过你很容易的
87	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday, that's right.	玛丽安每周五总穿牛仔裤没错
88	Next one.	下一个
89	Marianne won't be wearing jeans today.	玛丽安今天不会穿牛仔裤的
90	Those are the sentences that make up the argument.	这些是构成争论的句子。
91	Exactly so.	没错
92	Now, here's a bit of technology, terminology for you.	现在,这里有一些技术,术语给你。
93	Technology focus.	技术重点.
94	Conclusion is the sentence being said to be true and the premises are the sentences being offered as reasons for believing the other one.	结论是,据说判决是真实的,判决是作为相信另一判决的理由提出的。
95	And remember that might be just one.	记住,那可能只是一个。
96	There might be just one premise so it doesn't need to be two.	可能只有一个前提所以不需要两个前提
97	There could be 20 premises.	可能还有20处
98	But what makes something a premise and what makes something a conclusion is the role that they're playing in the argument, the function that they're performing.	但是什么使某件事成为前提,是什么使某件事成为结论,是他们在争论中扮演的角色,是他们正在履行的功能.
99	So here's the argument again.	故此论又.
100	What's the conclusion of the argument?	辩之何为结论.
101	That's right, yep, that's the conclusion because that's the one we're saying is true.	是的,是的,这是结论因为我们说的是事实
102	And what are the premises?	馆舍是什么?
103	That's right.	没错
104	So there are two premises to this argument and one conclusion.	因此,这一论点有两个前提和一个结论。
105	Okay, very simple stuff.	好吧,非常简单的东西。
106	So there's the conclusion in red, Marianne will be wearing jeans today and the premises in green.	玛丽安今天会穿着牛仔裤和绿色的场地
107	It's very important to distinguish arguments from sets of sentences.	将论据与句子区分开来是非常重要的.
108	Let's see how to do that because an argument is a set of sentences, but it's more than that.	让我们看看如何做到这一点,因为一个争论是一组句子,但不止于此.
109	So there's more to an argument than a set of sentences.	故辩才多于集句.
110	Question at the back.	后问.
111	Yes, how do you feel about taking questions?	是的,你对提问有什么感觉?
112	Because I wanted to ask you that previous one.	因为我想问你上一个
113	Does it matter?	有关系吗?
114	I'm very happy to take questions.	我很高兴能接受问题
115	If I think they're going to go on too long, I'll shut you up and put you on to the question time.	如果我觉得他们要持续太久我会让你闭嘴让你进入提问时间
116	Or if I think it's complicated or something, but otherwise I'm happy to take you on.	或者,如果我觉得它很复杂什么的, 但否则我很乐意接受你。
117	Well, the question then is presumably one sentence as a premise depends on another because it's five days irrelevant	好吧,那么问题大概是一句话作为一个前提取决于另一个,因为它的五天无关紧要
118	until you know that Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday.	直到你知道玛丽安每周五总是穿牛仔裤
119	In that particular argument, yes, that's a good question.	在这个具体的论点中,是的,这是一个很好的问题.
120	Let's go back to it.	复说 it言.
121	Actually, I'm very happy for you to ask questions because if you do, it might be a clarification question like that one, which is quite useful.	事实上,我很高兴你能问问题, 因为如果你问, 这可能是一个澄清问题像那个问题, 这是相当有用的。
122	If you look at that, let's get to that one.	如果你看看,让我们开始吧。
123	If you take out that premise, you might still have an argument.	如果你拿出这个前提, 你可能还有争论。
124	You say it's Friday, so Marianne will be wearing jeans today.	你说是星期五所以玛丽安今天要穿牛仔裤
125	But what have you done?	但是你们做了什么?
126	You've left an indication that you always wanted to see it on a Friday.	你留下了一个迹象你一直想在星期五看到它。
127	That's right.	没错
128	You've left a suppressed premise, haven't you?	你留下了一个被压制的前提,不是吗?
129	Because that wouldn't be a good argument.	因为这不会是一个很好的争论。
130	It would still be an argument, actually, because you'd still be giving one sentence as a reason to believe another one.	这仍然是个争论,实际上, 因为你仍然会给出一个句子作为相信另一个句子的理由。
131	But it wouldn't be an argument that could possibly be convincing were it not for that.	但是,如果没有这个理由,它不会是一个可能令人信服的论点.
132	So we often leave premises suppressed in an argument.	所以我们经常在争吵中离开被压制的场所.
133	But usually when because of the context or because of something that we can assume, we assume that the person knows the other one.	但通常由于上下文或我们可以假设的东西,我们假设这个人认识另一个人.
134	So if we all knew, if you knew that every time, well, that every Friday I wear jeans, if you all knew that, that would be an argument without the second premise.	所以,如果我们都知道, 如果你知道,每一次,嗯, 我每周五穿牛仔裤,如果你们都知道, 这将是一个争论没有第二个前提。
135	So thank you for that.	谢谢你们
136	If people didn't have that assumption, is that what would be termed a non sequitur?	如果人们没有这种假设,那所谓的非定理是什么呢?
137	Yes.	对
138	Yeah, well done.	是啊,干得不错。
139	And we'll say something more about non sequiturs not today, probably, but later in the course.	我们将会多说一些关于非下层的,不是今天,也许,而是后来。
140	You could actually say Mary Ann always wears jeans on Friday.	你可以说玛丽安周五总穿牛仔裤
141	She is wearing jeans today.	她今天穿牛仔裤
142	You could leave out then.	那你可以离开了
143	You don't need to say it's Friday.	你不必说这是星期五。
144	Yes, you could.	是的,你会的。
145	I mean, that would be a different argument, but it would be an argument.	我的意思是,这将是一个不同的争论,但它会是一个争论。
146	Well, I was going to say you could change the, for instance, you could say it's Mary's wearing jeans, yours wears jeans on Friday.	嗯,我想说你可以改变, 例如,你可以说, 这是玛丽穿牛仔裤, 你的牛仔裤星期五。
147	Therefore, it's Friday.	因此,这是星期五。
148	That would be a false argument.	那将是一个虚假的论点。
149	Well, that would be a false argument.	好吧,那会是一个虚假的争论。
150	Hold that one.	拿着那个
151	We'll come back to that in a minute and you'll see what I'm going to say about that.	我们马上回来,你看看我要说什么
152	I just want to note that.	我只是想指出这一点。
153	OK, I'm going to move on because, yes, you can make an argument out of.	好吧,我要继续前进,因为,是的,你可以提出一个争论。
154	Well, let me just move on and show you exactly what I'm going to say there.	好吧,让我继续前进, 告诉你我到底要说什么。
155	OK, it's important to distinguish arguments from sets of sentences.	好了,重要的是要区分论点和句子。
156	Sets of sentences that are not arguments might either have no relation at all between them or they may have between a relation other than that characterizing an argument.	不属于争辩的一组句子可能要么彼此之间完全没有关系,要么在争辩特征以外的一种关系之间有关系。
157	For example, a set of sentences might be consistent, i.e.	例如,一组句子可能是一致的,即:
158	such that they could all be true together without being an argument.	因此,他们可以都是真的在一起,没有争论。
159	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
160	Or they could be related by all referring to what's your name?	或者他们可能都与你名字有关?
161	Mike.	迈克
162	They could be related in that way without being an argument.	它们可以这样联系,而不必争辩。
163	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
164	There are lots of different ways sets of sentences can be related.	有很多不同的方式组合的句子可以相互联系。
165	But the relation, in order to be one of arguments, it's got to what?	但是,关系,为了成为争论之一,它得到了什么?
166	It's got to be a reason for something to be true.	得是因缘而得真言.
167	Good.	不错
168	In order to be an argument, there's got to be one sentence that you're putting forward as being true and the other sentences or sentence is a reason for believing that thing.	为了成为争论,你提出的一个句子必须是真实的,而其他句子或句子是相信那个东西的理由.
169	That's the relation that characterizes an argument, nothing else.	这就是争论的特征,别无他法。
170	Here's a set of sentences that isn't an argument.	这是一组不是争论的句子。
171	The sea is salt, Melbourne's in Australia.	海是盐,墨尔本在澳大利亚.
172	But it's very easy to make it an argument.	但以辩才为方便.
173	The sea is salt, therefore Melbourne's in Australia.	海是盐,因此墨尔本在澳大利亚.
174	Now, do you think I've made that an argument or not?	现在,你认为我已经做了一个争论与否?
175	No, why not?	不,为什么不呢?
176	It's a false argument.	虚妄辩才.
177	No, that particular one, you'll see why I'm saying this in a minute.	不,那一个,你会明白我为什么说这个一分钟。
178	It's a what?	是个什么?
179	There's no link between them.	他们之间没有联系
180	So you think that my putting the therefore in doesn't make it an argument.	所以,你认为我把因此不使它成为争论。
181	Let me tell you a little story.	让我告诉你一个小故事。
182	We're doing a panel show.	我们正在做一个面板秀。
183	We've got to find out things and find out other things and they come back and we'll win a huge prize.	我们必须找出一些东西, 找出其他的东西, 他们回来,我们会赢得一个巨大的奖。
184	Now, we're particularly ignorant contestants here.	现在,我们特别无知的参赛者在这里。
185	We don't know whether the sea is salt and we don't know whether Melbourne's in Australia.	我们不知道海是不是盐,也不知道墨尔本是否在澳大利亚.
186	But we do know that if one of these sentences is true, so is the other.	但我们确实知道,如果其中一句话是真的,那么另一句话也是一样。
187	That's all we know.	我们只知道这些
188	We know if one of these sentences is true, so is the other.	我们知道,如果其中一句话是真的,那么另一个句子也是一样。
189	So now we've got to find out whether either of these sentences is true.	所以现在我们必须找出这些句子中的任何一句是否属实.
190	So half of us run off to see whether the sea is salt.	所以我们有一半人跑出去看海是不是盐。
191	The other half run off to find out whether Melbourne's in Australia.	另一半跑去查墨尔本是否在澳大利亚
192	And the Melbourne's in Australia, sorry, the sea is salt ones come back first.	墨尔本号在澳大利亚,抱歉,海是盐的先回来
193	They say the sea is salt, therefore Melbourne's in Australia.	他们说海是盐所以墨尔本在澳大利亚
194	Hey, is that an argument?	嘿,这是在吵架吗?
195	What do you know?	你们知道什么?
196	That's supposed to be a good argument, isn't it?	这应该是一个很好的争论,不是吗?
197	What I'm doing there is I'm giving a reason.	我所做的就是给出一个理由。
198	I'm saying Melbourne is in Australia is true, aren't I?	我说墨尔本在澳洲是真的,不是吗?
199	And I'm giving a reason for believing it, namely the truth of the seas being salt.	我给一个相信它的理由, 即海是盐的真理。
200	Fair enough?	公平吗?
201	Is this an argument?	这是争论吗?
202	Okay, it was an argument before I gave you the context, actually,	好吧,这是一场争论之前,我给你的背景,实际上,
203	because arguing is something that we do with sentences.	因为争吵是我们处理判决的事
204	Okay, we do them because of all sorts of things to do with our background,	好吧,我们做他们因为各种各样的事情我们的背景,
205	what we've just found out, our desires, our hopes, our fears, our intentions, things like that.	我们刚刚发现的,我们的欲望,我们的希望,我们的恐惧,我们的意图,类似的事情.
206	Arguing is something we do, and we can do it in any way.	争辩是我们做的事情,我们无论如何都可以做到.
207	This is why the idea of artificial intelligence,	这就是为什么人工智能的想法,
208	which was talked about a great deal a few years ago, is getting, frankly, nowhere.	几年前讨论过很多事情坦白地说,现在没有结果了
209	And the reason it's getting nowhere is human beings can see the relevance	人类可以看清它的意义
210	once the context is provided that a computer, so far, can't see.	一旦提供上下文计算机,到目前为止,看不到。
211	I mean, fingers crossed that we will be able to deal with this one.	我的意思是,手指交叉我们将能够处理这一个。
212	But the fact is that the minute I give you the context, you can see the argument, can't you?	但事实是,我给你的背景, 你可以看到争论,不是吗?
213	Some of you.	诸人中.
214	It's just context.	这只是背景。
215	I mean, in this sentence, the fact that we haven't explicitly said	我的意思是,在这个句子中, 我们没有明确说
216	both must be true if one is true.	如果两者都是真的的话
217	You're absolutely right.	你说得对
218	In fact, you might say there are a lot of...	事实上,你可能会说有很多...
219	You could say there's a suppressed premise in there,	你可以说里面有一个被压制的前提,
220	which is that if the sea is salt, then Melbourne is in Australia.	如果海是盐那么墨尔本在澳大利亚
221	And I've given that by giving the context, if you like.	如果你愿意的话,我通过提供背景来给它。
222	So if we were gaining contestants in that situation,	所以,如果我们是获得参赛者在这种情况下,
223	I wouldn't have to give that suppressed premise because we would all know it.	我不必给这个被压制的前提,因为我们都知道。
224	But, again, well done.	但还是做得好
225	You picked up the point at the back.	你捡起后面的点。
226	So a suppressed premise is the same as context?	所以被压制的前提与上下文相同?
227	No.	没有
228	In providing the context, I enabled us to see the suppressed premise, if you like.	在提供背景方面,我使我们能够看到被压制的前提,如果你愿意的话。
229	Because just at the moment, there's no suppressed premise that we can see.	因为就在此时此刻,没有被压制的前提,我们可以看到.
230	I mean, we don't see why that's an argument.	我的意思是,我们不明白为什么这是个争论。
231	You all denied it was an argument because you can't see the relevance between the two.	你们都否认这是个争论因为你看不出两者的相关性
232	What I did was make one relevant to the other.	我所做的就是使一个与另一个相关。
233	And in doing so, I provided you with the premise that was suppressed.	这样做,我给了你一个被压制的前提。
234	So there's a suppressed premise, which is a sentence,	所以有一个被压制的前提, 这是一个句子,
235	because premises are always sentences.	因为前提总是句子。
236	And that's what I provided by providing the context.	这就是我通过提供背景提供的。
237	I'm struggling with that because Melbourne is in Australia not because the sea is salt,	因为墨尔本在澳大利亚不是因为海水是盐
238	but because the first sentence is true.	但是因为第一句是真实的。
239	This is very interesting.	这很有趣
240	Very interesting question.	非常有趣的问题。
241	What you're confusing, I apologise, is causation and entailment.	你所混淆的,我道歉, 是因果关系和内涵。
242	The premises of an argument do not cause the conclusion to be true.	论点的前提不能使结论属实。
243	If that's a premise, then that's a premise.	如果这是一个前提, 那么这是一个前提。
244	Do you think that what's caused me to wear jeans today is these two things?	你觉得今天我穿牛仔裤的原因是这两件事吗?
245	Not necessarily.	不见得.
246	I mean, it might be that actually I wear jeans on a Friday	我的意思是,这可能是,实际上我穿牛仔裤在一个星期五
247	to commemorate the first pair of jeans that my mum ever bought me or something like that.	纪念我妈妈给我买的第一件牛仔裤之类的
248	I can't think of a good reason for wearing jeans on a Friday.	周五穿牛仔裤有什么好理由
249	Do you like to wear jeans every day?	你喜欢每天穿牛仔裤吗?
250	I might wear jeans every day, yes, exactly.	我可能每天都穿牛仔裤没错
251	Okay, so the fact that A and B together entail C doesn't mean that A and B cause C.	所以A和B一起产生C 并不意味着A和B引起C
252	And when you say that the sea is salt doesn't cause Melbourne to be in Australia,	当你说海是盐并不导致墨尔本在澳大利亚
253	you're quite right.	你说得对
254	But saying that the sea is salt, therefore Melbourne in Australia,	但说海是盐所以墨尔本在澳大利亚
255	isn't implying causation of any kind.	这并不意味着任何因果关系。
256	What do you do if you have two other Melbournes in the world?	如果你有另外两个墨尔本人呢?
257	Ah, you ignore them.	啊,你忽略他们。
258	Again, that's a very good question.	再说一遍,这是一个非常好的问题。
259	I'm glad you asked it.	我很高兴你问了
260	Let's go to the sea of salt one.	入盐一海.
261	Well, actually, you could do it with the Marianne one as well,	嗯,实际上,你可以做到这一点与玛丽安之一,
262	because there are lots of people called Marianne other than me in the world.	因为世界上有很多人叫玛丽安除了我之外
263	All that it means is if Marianne...	意味着如果玛丽安...
264	Is there anyone else called Marianne in this room?	这里还有人叫玛丽安吗?
265	All right, put up your hand if you're called John.	好吧,举起你的手如果你叫约翰。
266	This is the second time this has happened.	这是第二次发生这种情况。
267	Okay, there are no Johns in this room.	好吧,这房间里没有约翰斯。
268	Your mic.	你的麦克风。
269	Is there anyone else called Mike?	还有谁叫麦克吗?
270	Two Mikes in this room.	房间有两个麦克
271	If I say Mike is tall, okay, at the moment that's ambiguous, isn't it?	如果我说迈克是高的,好吧, 在目前这模棱两可,不是吗?
272	It has two meanings.	有二义.
273	I could be referring to that Mike or that Mike.	我可能是指那个迈克或者那个迈克
274	One of you may be short, in which case it would be false of one, true of the other.	你们中的一人可能很矮,在这种情况下,那将是假的,是假的.
275	But what I've actually got here is two sentences.	但我在这里得到了两句。
276	In which case I'm going to get here.	这样的话,我就要到了
277	There's a type of sentence.	有一类句子.
278	I have no pens, believe it or not.	我没有笔,信不信由你
279	That was another thing that fell off the list.	这是另一个从清单上掉下来的东西。
280	Would you mind?	你介意吗?
281	I bet you can't see this.	我打赌你看不到这个
282	Imagine it.	试想一下
283	Yes, you can imagine it.	是的,你可以想象出来。
284	Okay, Mike is tall is what it says.	好吧,迈克是高上面说。
285	Actually, let's forget Mike.	实际上,让我们忘了迈克。
286	Let's put John is tall there.	让我们把约翰是高的那里。
287	Now, if I put John is tall up there, that has no meaning, doesn't it?	现在,如果我把约翰高在那里,这是没有意义的,不是吗?
288	In the context of this room.	以本室为背景.
289	In the sense that there's nobody to whom John refers, as we know.	意思是,没有人被约翰提到, 我们知道。
290	But I could use that sentence John is tall to say something, couldn't I?	但我可以用约翰高高的句子说点什么吗?
291	In the same way, here is a sentence type that could be used to say things.	同样,这里还有一种句子类型,可以用来表达事物.
292	And I could use this type of sentence to say Mike is tall.	我可以用这种句子说迈克很高
293	Or I could use the same sentence to say Mike is tall.	或者我可以用同一句话说迈克是高的。
294	But those are two different tokens of the same type of sentence.	但这些是同一类句的两个不同的符号.
295	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
296	So just as that's one token of the type chair and that's another one.	所以,就像这是一种类型的椅子的标志, 这是另一个。
297	And this is one token of the type human being and that's another one.	这是人类的象征,是另一个
298	Mike is tall is one token of that type of sentence.	迈克高个子是那种句子的象征
299	And Mike is tall is another token of that type of sentence.	迈克又高了是那种句子的另一个象征
300	So actually, if you have two Melbans, you could have two arguments that that could be.	所以,实际上,如果你有两个Melbans, 你可以有两个论点,那可能是。
301	It could either be the sea assault, therefore, Melbourne, which is in the Northern Territories in Australia,	也可能是海袭,所以墨尔本位于澳大利亚北部领地
302	or Melbourne, which is in, thank you, Victoria, is in Australia.	或者墨尔本,这是,谢谢你,维多利亚, 在澳大利亚。
303	Or in Derbyshire.	或于德边郡.
304	Well, no, not in Derbyshire, because that would falsify that one, wouldn't it?	不,不是在德比郡因为那样会伪造那个,不是吗?
305	Unless there's a Derbyshire in Australia.	除非澳大利亚有德比郡
306	Can you clarify that?	你能澄清吗?
307	If one causes part of the argument to be false, the existence or non-existence of facts in the world, then?	如果有人导致部分论点是虚假的,那么世界上是否存在事实,那么呢?
308	I'm going to hold over that question and I'm going to tag it together with your claim that the argument is false.	我会坚持这个问题, 我会标注它与你的说法, 争论是虚假的。
309	Okay, and I'll come back to it shortly.	好吧,我会回来的很快。
310	Okay, so, arguing is something that we do with sentences.	好吧,所以,争论是我们做的与判决。
311	Any sentences could form part of an argument.	任何判决都可以构成辩论的一部分。
312	There's no such thing as a sentence that couldn't be part of an argument.	句句无能为辩.
313	And what makes this an argument is the fact that we are making an argument claim.	我们提出一个论点。
314	We're putting forward one sentence and we're offering the other sentences as reasons to believe that sentence.	我们提出一个句子,我们提出另一个句子作为相信这句话的理由.
315	So, you cannot recognise arguments by recognising the sentences that are in arguments.	因此,你无法通过承认争论中的句子来识别争论。
316	You've got to recognise the relation between the sentences.	你必须承认判决之间的关系。
317	Okay, let's have a look at these.	好吧,让我们来看看这些。
318	Which of these sentences are arguments?	这些句子中哪些是争论?
319	Right, who thinks that this is an argument?	好吧,谁认为这是个争论?
320	Okay, no one else.	好吧,没有人。
321	Okay, why do you think that's an argument?	好吧,你为什么认为这是个争论?
322	It's making the assumption that the storm broke because the clouds formed from the sky back in.	它的假设是,风暴破裂是因为云从天空中重新形成.
323	The storm broke because the clouds formed from the sky back in.	暴风雨破裂是因为云从天而降
324	Does that make it an argument?	这说明这是个争论吗?
325	Because.	因为...
326	That word because is very difficult because distinguish causes and reasons for something.	这个词是因为很难区分原因和原因。
327	Okay, there can be a causal relation between two events.	好吧两个事件之间可能有因果关系
328	So, a causal relation between two events.	所以,两个事件之间的因果关系。
329	And there can be a rational relation between two sentences or two beliefs.	而两句或两句信仰之间也可以有理性的关系.
330	Okay, and we tend to use because for both of these types of relations.	好吧,我们倾向于使用因为这两种类型的关系。
331	But these are causes and these are reasons.	但这些都是原因,也是原因。
332	And you shouldn't be worried about making this error because it's a very, very common one.	你不应该担心犯这个错误,因为它是非常,非常常见的。
333	You were thinking of the causal relation as a rational relation, but it's not, is it?	你当时认为因果关系是一种理性的关系,但不是,是吗?
334	Okay, so that's not an argument because all we're saying is that actually three events happened, aren't we?	好吧,所以这不是一个争论,因为我们说的是, 实际上发生了三个事件,不是吗?
335	Firstly, clouds formed, then the sky blackened, then the storm broke.	首先,云层形成,然后天空变黑,然后暴风雨破裂。
336	And there may be a causal relation between them.	他们之间可能存在因果关系。
337	But we're not saying that these two are a reason for believing the other, are we?	但我们不是说这两个是相信另一个的理由吧?
338	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
339	What about this one?	这个呢?
340	Is this an argument?	这是争论吗?
341	Put your hand up if you think yes.	把手举起来,如果你认为是。
342	Yes, okay.	是的,还好。
343	Which is the conclusion?	哪个结论?
344	And the premises?	馆舍呢?
345	That's right.	没错
346	Manchester is north of Oxford.	曼彻斯特位于牛津北部.
347	Edinburgh is north of Oxford.	爱丁堡位于牛津北部.
348	Sorry.	对不起
349	Edinburgh is north of Manchester.	爱丁堡位于曼彻斯特以北.
350	Edinburgh is north of Oxford is the conclusion.	爱丁堡位于牛津北部就是结论.
351	Okay, so this one is since Manchester is north of Oxford and Edinburgh is north of Manchester,	好吧,这是因为曼彻斯特在牛津北部,爱丁堡在曼彻斯特北部,
352	Edinburgh is north of Oxford.	爱丁堡位于牛津北部.
353	Edinburgh is north of Oxford is the conclusion.	爱丁堡位于牛津北部就是结论.
354	The other two are the premises.	另两处为馆舍.
355	That's definitely an argument.	这绝对是一个争论。
356	Okay, witches float because witches are made of wood and wood floats.	好吧,女巫漂浮因为女巫是由木头和木头漂浮而成的
357	Is that an argument or not?	这是否是争论?
358	Put your hand up if you think it is an argument.	把手举起来,如果你认为这是争论。
359	Okay, that's an argument.	好吧,这是一个争论。
360	You're quite right.	你说得对
361	And what's the conclusion?	那结果是什么?
362	Witches float, okay.	女巫会漂浮,好吗?
363	And then the premises are?	然后这里是?
364	And wood floats, that's right.	及木浮浮,对.
365	Notice that the conclusion is at the front here.	注意结论在前面
366	Doesn't make any difference, does it?	这没什么区别吧?
367	Because what makes a sentence a conclusion?	因为什么使句子成为结论?
368	It follows from the other two premises.	是从另外两个前提开始的。
369	No, because it might not follow from the other two premises.	不,因为它可能不是从其他两个前提。
370	It might be a bad argument.	这也许是一个坏的争论。
371	What makes something a conclusion?	什么结论?
372	The word concurs.	这个词同意。
373	I wanted that in the sentence as well.	我也想在句子里这样
374	Well, because the premise is it really is true.	因为前提是它是真的
375	Even if you had it in argument one it wouldn't have done.	即使你用它来辩论也不会这么做
376	Come on somebody!	来吧!
377	It's the one you're saying is true, that's right.	尔时金刚手菩萨言.
378	You're saying this is true because of the others.	你说这是真的因为其他人。
379	Where the because is a rational because, not a causal because.	原因是理性,而不是因果
380	Okay, let me tell you again.	好吧,让我告诉你一遍。
381	The only thing that makes a sentence a conclusion or a premise	唯一能让句子成为结论或前提的东西
382	is the role that it's playing in the argument.	是它在争论中扮演的角色。
383	If it's playing the role of being the sentence for which you're arguing	如果它扮演你为之争辩的句子的角色
384	then it's a conclusion.	然后它是一个结论。
385	And if it's playing the role of a sentence for which you're offering	狦琌簍璶暗
386	as a reason for believing the other one, then it's a premise.	作为相信另一个的原因, 然后它是一个前提。
387	That's the only thing that makes a sentence a premise or a conclusion.	只有这样,句子才成为前提或结论.
388	Even if it's not true, it's actually true.	纵有不实之义,其实也.
389	We'll come onto truth in a minute.	我们马上就会了解真相的
390	Truth is, you're quite right to think that truth is very important,	事实是,你非常正确认为真相是非常重要的,
391	but not just yet.	但不是现在
392	Notice instead that there's no reason why a sentence that's playing	注意一下,没有任何理由一个句子在播放
393	the role of a conclusion in one argument	一、结论在一个论点中的作用
394	can't play the role of a premise in another argument.	无法在另一个论点中扮演前提的角色.
395	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
396	That's why it's very important that what makes them a premise or a conclusion	所以重要的是是什么让他们成为前提或结论
397	is the function they're playing, the role they're playing,	他们扮演的角色,他们扮演的角色,
398	not anything intrinsic to the sentence.	不是句子的内在内容
399	Because if it was intrinsic to the sentence,	因为如果这是句子的固有内容
400	you'd have a sentence that could only be a conclusion,	你会有一个句子只能是一个结论,
401	which would be rather odd, wouldn't it?	那会很奇怪,不是吗?
402	And I'm sure there are, so I might be able to speak about that.	我敢肯定,有, 所以我也许可以谈论这一点。
403	I can't off the top of my head.	我无法从头顶下来。
404	So what makes a sentence a conclusion is that you are arguing for it.	因此,句子可以得出一个结论,那就是你正在为此争论。
405	What makes it a premise is that you are using it to argue for something else.	其前提就是你利用它来为别的东西辩护
406	Okay, is this an argument?	好吧,这是在争论吗?
407	Hands up if you think it is.	举起手来,如果你认为是。
408	It could be.	可能会
409	It depends.	这取决于。
410	It's a more difficult one, isn't it?	这是一个更困难的,不是吗?
411	But if it were a conclusion, which would...	但是,如果这是一个结论, 这将...
412	If it were an argument, which would be the conclusion?	如果这是个争论,那会是什么结论?
413	Things would be odd.	事情会很奇怪。
414	Okay, so then the premise would be Jesse James left town	好吧,那么前提是杰西・詹姆斯离开小镇
415	and Jesse James took his gang with him.	杰西·詹姆斯带着他的帮派
416	So we could say Jesse James left town, Jesse James took his gang with him,	我们可以说杰西·詹姆斯离开了小镇杰西·詹姆斯带着他的帮派
417	therefore things have been a lot quieter.	因此,事情变得更加平静。
418	But there's an implied premise as well, isn't there,	但也有一个隐含的前提是不是
419	that Jesse James and his gang...	杰西・詹姆斯和他的帮派...
420	We can make anything an argument.	我们能把任何事都当成争吵
421	I don't think that's an argument myself.	我不认为这是个争论自己。
422	I think it's just a concatenation of sentences,	我觉得这只是句子的调和,
423	i.e.	即说.
424	several sentences strung together.	几个句子连在一起。
425	And in fact there probably is a causal relationship too, isn't there?	事实上,也存在因果关系,不是吗?
426	Why are things quieter?	为什么事情比较安静?
427	Because Jesse James left town and he's taken his gang with him as well.	因为杰西·詹姆斯离开了镇上,他也带着他的帮派.
428	It's not just an explanation.	这不仅仅是一个解释。
429	Ah, now explanations, reasons and causes,	啊,现在解释,理由和原因,
430	now you're really getting into the interesting stuff.	现在你真的进入有趣的东西。
431	Explanations can be both causal and rational, can't they?	解释既可以是因果关系,也可以是理性的,不是吗?
432	So I can give an explanation of your behaviour that's rational,	所以,我可以解释你的行为是理性的,
433	or I can give an explanation of your behaviour that's causal.	或者我可以解释你的行为是因果
434	So, what's your name?	你叫什么来着?
435	Paul.	保罗
436	Paul, okay.	保罗,好吧。
437	So the reason Paul did that was whatever.	所以保罗这么做的原因就在于此
438	Or Paul did that because...	或者保罗这样做是因为...
439	What's your name?	你叫什么来着?
440	Jenny.	詹妮,你好吗?
441	Jenny pushed him.	珍妮推他出来
442	You know, Jenny pushed him, Paul fell over.	你知道,珍妮推他,保罗跌倒。
443	Okay, or Paul fell over because he was trying to make the children laugh.	好吧,或者保罗摔倒因为他试图让孩子们笑。
444	Do you see?	看到没?
445	One's a rational explanation and the other's a causal explanation.	一个是理性的解释,另一个是因果解释.
446	Causes, reasons and explanations are intimately tied together	原因、理由和解释紧密相连
447	and we'll talk about them probably quite often in these sessions,	我们可能经常在会议上讨论他们
448	but the important thing is that not all causes are reasons.	但重要的是,并非所有原因都是原因。
449	It may be that all reasons are causes,	也许所有原因都是原因
450	but it's not the case that all causes are reasons	但并不是所有原因都是原因
451	because some causes are non-rational.	因为有些原因是不合理的
452	They have no reasons involved in them at all.	他们完全没有参与的理由。
453	Anyway, this is getting complicated and you don't need to worry about this.	总之这越来越复杂了你不必担心
454	The important thing is that a set of sentences is only an argument	重要的是一组句子只是争论
455	if you're putting one forward as true	如果你提出一个是真实的
456	and putting the others forward as reasons for believing the one.	并且把他人引入正轨,以示信义。
457	That's what an argument is.	辩才如此.
458	So if a set of sentences doesn't have that relation between them,	所以,如果一组句子没有关系他们之间,
459	it isn't an argument.	这不是争论。
460	There may be some other reason.	可能还有其他原因。
461	So it may be just coincidence.	所以也许只是巧合
462	Yes, you may not be saying there's even a causal relationship here.	是的,你可能不是说这里甚至有因果关系。
463	Actually, since Jesse James left town taking his gang with him,	事实上自从杰西·詹姆斯带着他的帮派离开后
464	things have been a lot quieter	事情比较平静
465	because it's not been necessary to do this, that or the other.	因为它是不必要的做到这一点,那或其他。
466	But you could very easily supply a context in which that wasn't, right?	但你可以很容易地提供一个不属于这个背景的,对不对?
467	Well, as I said, you can supply a context in which anything is an argument,	正如我所说,你可以提供一个背景任何事物都是争论,
468	so that's true.	所以这是真的。
469	Is a set of sentences an argument subjective or objective?	一套句子是主观的还是客观的?
470	Is it a matter of opinion?	是意见问题吗?
471	Well, is it?	是吗?
472	I mean, if we go back to...	我的意思是,如果我们回去...
473	I mean, you can answer this question yourself.	你可以自己回答这个问题
474	If we go back to that one,	如果我们回到那个,
475	is it a matter of opinion that that's an argument	这是观点问题吗?
476	or did I somehow make it an argument?	还是我把它说成是争吵?
477	I mean, did I make it appear to be an argument	我的意思是,我是不是把它看起来像一个争论
478	or did I make it an argument?	还是我吵架了?
479	I mean, I imagine that it appears to be an argument	我的意思是,我想这似乎是一个争论
480	by making it an argument.	因为它是一个争论。
481	It requires a context.	它需要一个背景。
482	And therefore it became an argument,	因此,它变成了一种争论,
483	or rather you started to see that it was an argument.	或者说,你开始看到这是一场争论。
484	Is that right?	是吗?
485	So, objective and subjective.	所以,客观和主观。
486	When I used to teach undergraduates,	我以前教本科的时候
487	I used to say that I wouldn't let them use those words until their third year	我曾经说过,我不会让他们用那些词直到他们的第三年
488	because they're very difficult words.	因为他们是非常困难的词。
489	And the reason they're very difficult words	和原因他们是非常困难的话
490	is because there are objective facts about subjective things.	是因为有客观的事实关于主观的东西。
491	If you think of a subjective state as the state of a subject,	如果你认为主观状态是主体状态
492	state of happiness or something like that,	快乐的状态之类的,
493	then there are objective facts about such states.	因此,有客观的事实有关这种状态。
494	I mean, either you're happy now or you're not.	我的意思是,要么你现在高兴要么你不是。
495	That's a bad example, actually, happiness.	这是一个不好的例子,实际上,幸福。
496	Anyway, you can see what I mean.	总之,你明白我的意思
497	I guess I will reject an argument because I say	我想我会拒绝一个争论因为我说
498	I don't think it's an argument.	何以为辩.
499	Or do you mean it's not another argument?	还是说这不是另一个争论?
500	I was just going to make that distinction.	我本来想把这事区分开来
501	Okay, two questions you might ask.	好吧,你可能会问两个问题。
502	That isn't an argument or that isn't a good argument.	这不是争论,也不是好争论。
503	That isn't an argument.	这不是争论
504	Clearly you can make that distinction, that claim.	很明显,你可以做出这样的区分, 这个说法。
505	Whether the person making it...	那个人是不是...
506	That's an interesting one.	这是一个有趣的。
507	If you mind, I'll leave that on one side	你介意的话,我把这个留在一边
508	because I'll think about what I think about that.	因为我会考虑我的想法
509	I'm not sure.	我不太确定说不定
510	I have a feeling you'd say, yes, it is,	我有一种感觉,你会说,是的,这是,
511	but then you'd have to provide the context	但你必须提供背景
512	which would make it clear to the other person	可以向对方说明
513	that it's an argument.	那是个争论
514	Okay, let's move on.	好吧,让我们继续前进。
515	If that's a John Cleese, then that's what John Cleese was saying.	如果那是约翰·克莱斯那约翰·克莱斯就是这么说的
516	What did he say?	他说什么?
517	No, no.	没有,没有。
518	Oh, that's not an argument.	哦,这不是一个争论。
519	Indeed, he did say that.	他确实这么说了。
520	That's right, that's not an argument.	这是正确的,这不是争论。
521	And what he meant by that is that's just a contradiction.	他的意思是,这只是一个矛盾。
522	You have just two sentences,	你只有两句
523	one which contradicts the other.	两者矛盾
524	That's not an argument.	这不是争论。
525	And that's an argument against...	这是反对...
526	But it's not an argument against the truth of it.	然非辩其真谛.
527	It's the argument against the truth that that's an argument.	是故辩才辩才辩才.
528	Oh, clarity of thought.	思想清净.
529	It's wonderful.	这是美妙的。
530	Right, let's move on.	好吧,让我们继续前进。
531	Okay, there are often words that suggest	好吧,经常有字暗示
532	that a set of sentences is an argument.	说一组句子是争论。
533	When we looked at these,	当我们看着这些,
534	we saw that you, sir, wanted a because in there	我们看到你,先生,想要一个因为在那里
535	because that would have convinced you it was an argument.	因为那会说服你这是争论
536	Should it have done?	应该这样做吗?
537	No, not necessarily.	不,不一定要这样
538	Because does sometimes interfere with an argument, but not always.	因为有时会干扰争论,但并不总是这样.
539	Okay, where's the argument word in this one?	好吧,这里的争论词在哪里?
540	Hang on.	坚持住。
541	Oh, okay.	哦,还好。
542	What about that one?	那个呢?
543	So.	所以说 So.
544	So, yeah.	对
545	Okay.	摆
546	Can you give me any more?	你能再给我一点吗?
547	Yes.	对
548	Ah, if then is a difficult one.	啊,如果那是一个困难的。
549	The answer is...	答案是...
550	Well, actually, I'll talk about that in a minute,	好吧,其实,我会谈论在一分钟内,
551	but I will put if on one side.	但我会站在一边
552	Because we've got to stick to the English	因为我们得坚持英语
553	between implication and entailment,	在暗示和暗示之间,
554	but we'll do that in a minute.	但是,我们会做到这一点在一分钟。
555	Hence.	所以说
556	Hence is a good one, yeah.	因此,这是一个好的,是的。
557	Then.	那样吧
558	Given.	承认
559	Then.	那样吧
560	Then is another one that's a bit iffy, actually.	那其实是另一个有点小
561	Therefore.	因此,我们...
562	Therefore is very definitely an argument word.	因此,这绝对是一个辩论词。
563	Notice, incidentally, that there are words that...	顺便说一句有些话...
564	Consequently.	由此而来.
565	Consequently, yeah.	因此,对。
566	Okay, let's leave that.	好吧,让我们离开这个。
567	So, firstly, we've said what an argument is,	所以,首先,我们已经说什么是争论,
568	and we've said how to distinguish an argument from a set of sentences.	我们说过如何区分一个争论和一组句子
569	But we've also got to distinguish an argument from an assertion,	但我们也必须区分一个论点和一个断言
570	just a straightforward assertion.	只是直截了当的断言
571	Okay.	摆
572	An argument is a set of sentences,	一个争论是一组句子,
573	just one of which is being asserted.	只是其中之一被断言。
574	An assertion is a single sentence,	说一句就是一句
575	possibly a complex sentence,	可能是一个复杂的句子,
576	so it might be,	所以,这可能是,
577	Marianne's wearing jeans and it's Friday,	玛丽安穿着牛仔裤今天是星期五
578	so that's one sentence conjoined with a sentence conjunction,	因此,这是一个句子与句子结合,
579	the and,	还有,
580	以Acetoric模式表达。
581	So, which of these sentences are or could be assertions?	那么,这些句子中哪句是或可能是断言?
582	Only number one, exactly so.	只有第一个,完全如此。
583	I say could be, because, of course, it could be said,	我说可以,因为, 当然,可以说,
584	I could say the room is hot in that Australian intonation that makes it a question.	我可以说房间很热在澳洲的融合使它成为一个问题。
585	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
586	So, I could ask the question in a form of words that would usually be used for acetoric.	因此,我可以用通常用于甲骨文的词语来提问。
587	So, again, remember that language is something we use and we can use it in all sorts of different ways.	所以,再次记住,语言是我们使用的东西, 我们可以以各种各样的方式使用它。
588	But this sentence has interrogative force, doesn't it?	但这一句有审讯力,不是吗?
589	Is the room hot?	房间热吗?
590	And this has imperative force, turn the heat up.	这有必须的力量,把热量调高。
591	That one is being used acetorically, not the others.	这个正在被使用,而不是其他。
592	Some assertions, and this will pick up the point you were making there,	一些说法,这个会得到你在那里提出的观点,
593	look very like arguments.	看起来像是争论。
594	If it's snowing, the mail will be late.	如果下雪,邮件会迟到
595	Okay.	摆
596	So, you might think that this is an argument because it's an if-then sentence.	所以,你可能会认为这是一个争论,因为它是一个句子,如果当时。
597	Why isn't that an argument?	为什么这不是一个争论?
598	Can anyone tell me?	有人能告诉我吗?
599	It's an assertion.	谓说法.
600	Well done, yes, it is an assertion, actually.	做得好,是的,这是一个断言,其实。
601	So, it might be snowing, it might not be.	所以,它可能是下雪,也许不是。
602	It's not based on any truth.	无以真言为本.
603	Definitely.	当然
604	Not definitely.	肯定没有
605	Okay.	摆
606	Good, okay.	不错,好吧。
607	Are we asserting it is snowing?	我们是不是说下雪了?
608	No.	没有
609	Are we asserting the mail will be late?	我们声称邮件会迟到吗?
610	No.	没有
611	Are we asserting if it's snowing, the mail will be late?	如果下雪,邮件会迟到吗?
612	Yes.	对
613	So, there's only one sentence there, isn't there?	所以,那里只有一个句子,不是吗?
614	It happens to be complex.	情况很复杂
615	It's a sentence that the sub-sentential parts are themselves sentential.	谓次结分部分自是发心.
616	But it's not an argument because it doesn't satisfy the description, does it?	但这不是争论,因为它不能满足描述,是吗?
617	It doesn't satisfy the claim that there must be a sentence that's being put forward as true	肯定有句子是真实的
618	and other sentences that are being put forward to support the claim that that one sentence is true.	以及正在提出的其他判决,以证实这一说法。
619	So, that's an implication, not an entailment.	所以,这是一个暗示,而不是暗示。
620	So, it's snowing, implied the mail will be late.	所以,它下雪了, 暗示邮件会迟到。
621	It doesn't entail that the mail will be late.	邮件不会迟到的
622	Question at the back.	后问.
623	What about the if?	如果是这样呢?
624	If you put in a therefore, would that make it as an argument?	因此,如果你加进去, 这是否就是一个争论?
625	Well, it would make it ungrammatical, actually.	实际上,这不会是语法上的
626	Therefore, it is snowing, the mail will be late.	因此,它正在下雪,邮件会迟到。
627	Sorry, Robert, paste one to the other.	对不起,罗伯特,把一个贴到另一个
628	But if it's snowing, therefore, the mail will be late.	但是如果下雪了邮件会迟到的
629	That would make it an argument because the therefore signals entailment.	这将使它成为一种争论,因为因此它意味着信号。
630	Then, it can signal entailment, but doesn't automatically.	然后,它可以发出信号,但不自动。
631	But therefore, I was going to say something very bash there.	但是,因此,我要说一些非常痛快的事情。
632	Therefore, always does, and I may be right about that.	因此,总是如此,我也许是对的。
633	So, we need to distinguish things like that from arguments.	因此,我们需要区分类似的事情和争论。
634	Now, we get on to the bit that's been worrying around this end of the room here.	现在,我们开始讨论这间屋子的这一端一直在担心的问题。
635	The thing about assertions is they're either true or false.	有关断言的是,它们要么是真实的,要么是虚假的.
636	Now, this is an interesting thing.	现在,这是一个有趣的事情。
637	There are only two sorts of things that can be true or false in this world.	于此世界中唯有二种能说真假.
638	One of them is beliefs.	其中之一是信仰。
639	Beliefs are either true or false.	信仰是真还是假。
640	And the other is the sentences that we use to express beliefs.	另一个是用来表达信仰的句子。
641	So, if I believe that the chair is blue, I can express that belief in the sentence, the chair is blue.	因此,如果我相信椅子是蓝色的, 我可以表达对句子的信念,椅子是蓝色的。
642	And both the belief and the sentence used to express it can be either true or false.	而用来表达它的信仰和句子,既可以是真实的,也可以是虚假的.
643	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
644	Can you think of anything else that can be true or false?	你能想到什么是真实或虚假的吗?
645	No, facts are what make sentences true or false.	不,事实就是判决的真伪
646	They are not themselves true or false.	它们本身不是真实或虚假的。
647	They just exist or don't exist.	他们只是存在或不存在。
648	So, the fact that that chair is blue makes true the sentence, that chair is blue.	所以,那张椅子是蓝色的这句子是真的,那张椅子是蓝色的。
649	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
650	What about her hair is blonde?	那她的头发是金发呢?
651	When you say that, are you saying what about that fact or that sentence?	当你这么说的时候你是在说那个事实还是那个句子?
652	That sentence.	这句话
653	Well, that's either true or false, isn't it?	好吧,这是真的还是假的,不是吗?
654	I mean, let me just point out an ambiguity.	我的意思是,让我只指出一个模糊。
655	What's your name?	你叫什么来着?
656	Fiona.	菲奥娜
657	Said, what about, what did you say?	说什么?
658	Her hair is blonde.	她的头发是金发
659	If I put it like that, I'm talking about the fact, aren't I?	如果我这么说,我说的是事实,不是吗?
660	Whereas if I do that, I'm now talking about the sentence, right?	而如果我这样做, 我现在谈论的句子,对不对?
661	If I take those out again, that's not the sort of thing that can be true,	如果我再拿出来,那就不是真的了
662	because the fact that someone's hair is blonde, that her hair is blonde,	因为某人的头发是金发, 她的头发是金发,
663	makes true the sentence, her hair is blonde.	她的头发是金发的
664	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
665	Difficult stuff philosophy, isn't it?	很难理解,不是吗?
666	But the really nice thing is that if you persevere with logic,	但真正的好事是,如果你坚持逻辑,
667	you too will be able to do things like this.	你也会做这种事的
668	These distinctions are there to be made.	应作出这些区分。
669	You just need the clarity of thought to be able to make them.	你只需要思想的清晰才能制造它们
670	Is that because facts are just always true?	是不是因为事实总是真实的?
671	Facts aren't true at all.	事实根本不是真的
672	Facts are what makes sentences true.	事实才是句子的真理。
673	Facts, if you like, are combinations of things or events,	事实,如果你喜欢, 是事物或事件的组合,
674	or things or properties and events.	或事物或财产和事件。
675	So if you think of something like, her hair is blonde, that's a fact.	所以,如果你想到类似的东西, 她的头发是金发,这是一个事实。
676	Okay, her hair's being blonde.	好吧,她的头发是金发。
677	Her jacket's being...	她的夹克是...
678	Green.	绿色。
679	Is it green?	是绿色的吗?
680	Well, I think so.	嗯,我想是这样。
681	Right.	对
682	Whether that's a fact or not, we're not really sure.	不管这是否属实我们并不确定
683	If it's green, then there's a fact of the matter,	如果它是绿色的, 那么有一个事实,
684	which is Diana's Japanese dream.	这是戴安娜的日梦
685	These are facts which either exist or not.	这些事实要么存在要么不存在。
686	Some people might say that that's not a fact, that Diana's Japanese dream.	有人可能会说,这不是事实,是戴安娜的日本梦.
687	The sentence that expresses that, the belief that that's a fact, is false.	表达这种观点的句子,认为这是事实,是虚假的.
688	Sorry, I lost myself in the beginning of that sentence.	抱歉,我在句子开头就迷失了自我
689	Is it like the sentence earlier, about the witch and the mode of work?	和刚才的句子一样关于女巫和工作方式吗?
690	The witch is a mode of work, there's a fact in that sentence.	魔女是一种工作方式,这句话中有一个事实.
691	That sentence referred to a fact, if you like.	如果你愿意的话,这句话指的是一个事实。
692	Even though witches aren't a mode of work in that context.	即使巫师不是那种工作方式
693	So you could argue that the question was false.	这样你就可以说问题是假的
694	Oh, I see, it referred to a potential fact, a positive fact.	哦,我明白了,它提到了一个潜在的事实, 一个积极的事实。
695	Yes.	对
696	That's right.	没错
697	Yes, of course.	当然
698	No, thank you, that's a very good point to make.	不,谢谢,这是一个很好的论点。
699	Of course, if I say something false, what makes it false is a fact,	当然,如果我说错什么, 是什么使它是假的是一个事实,
700	but it's not the fact.	但事实并非如此
701	So if I say that chair's black, the fact of the chair's not being black	如果我说椅子是黑色的那椅子不是黑色的
702	is what makes that true.	这才是事实
703	It gets difficult, as you can see.	事情变得很困难,如你所见。
704	But the thing to remember is this, there are three different levels	但记住的是,有三个不同的关卡
705	that we very importantly have to keep separate in thinking clearly.	我们必须保持清晰的思维。
706	And of course, all critical reasoning involves clarity of thought.	当然,所有批判性推理都涉及思想的清晰.
707	These levels are the level of language, thought,	这些级别是语言水平,思想,
708	and the thing they always call reality, but that's wrong,	和他们常称之为现实的东西, 但这是错的,
709	because of course, language and thoughts are real,	当然,语言和思想是真实的,
710	so that's completely wrong, but I keep using it that way.	所以这是完全错误的, 但我继续使用它的方式。
711	So if I put down red, and I put quotes around so that you make it clear	所以,如果我把红色的, 我把引号周围,让你说清楚
712	that it is a word, it's a linguistic item,	这是一个词, 这是一个语言项目,
713	then there's the concept red.	然后是概念红色。
714	It's when I think that is red, I'm using the concept red.	我觉得那是红色的,我用的是红色的概念。
715	And then there's redness, the property.	然后是红色,财产。
716	So these three things are quite different from each other, aren't they?	所以这三件事彼此之间是相当不同的,不是吗?
717	So if I say this pen has the property of being red,	如果我说这支笔是红色的
718	I'm talking about this, and if I'm thinking about this pen as being red,	我说的是这个如果我想这支笔是红的
719	then I'm exercising my concept of red,	然后我在行使我的红色概念,
720	and if I say this pen is red, then I'm using the word red.	如果我说这支笔是红色的那我就用红色这个词
721	Notice in French, it would be a different word, wouldn't it?	注意用法语说,这将是另一个词,不是吗?
722	But the same concept, and the same property.	但同一概念同一财产
723	So there's an arbitrary element in language that isn't there in the other two.	所以语言中有一个任意的元素,在其他两种语言中并不存在.
724	So what's the French word?	那么,法语是什么呢?
725	Rouge, I think.	红色,我想。
726	I'm glad I used red, not something else.	我很高兴我用红色而不是别的东西
727	I'm sorry, could you speak up?	对不起,你能说出来吗?
728	This is Metaphysics 101.	这是元物理101。
729	Facts aren't true.	事实并非如此。
730	Right, okay, let's unpack what you're talking about here,	好了,好了,我们把你们在说什么
731	in terms of facts and truths and so on.	在事实和事实等方面。
732	Okay, what you're suggesting is that what I see as red,	好吧,你的意思是我认为红色,
733	Mike might see as green, or something else.	迈克可能会看到绿色,或者别的什么。
734	Okay, so what we're saying is, why isn't anyone wearing red?	好吧,所以我们要说的是, 为什么没有人穿红色?
735	Will somebody please come next time wearing red?	下次有人穿红衣服来吗?
736	It makes it much easier.	这样就容易多了
737	There's a lady at the back wearing pink, or in the middle there.	后面有位女士穿着粉红色,或者在中间.
738	So when I look at that lady, what's her name?	当我看着那个女人时她叫什么名字?
739	Hildegard.	希尔德加德.
740	Hildegard, right.	希尔德加德,没错。
741	Okay, when I look at Hildegard's jacket, I see pink.	好吧,当我看着希尔德加德的外套, 我看到粉红色。
742	I see it looks like that.	看来是这样
743	And when Mike looks at it, it looks different.	而当迈克看它, 它看起来不同。
744	Okay, so it appears differently to Mike.	好吧,所以它看起来与迈克不同。
745	So I would say that jacket is pink.	所以我说那件夹克是粉红色的
746	And of course, Mike would also say it's pink.	当然,迈克也会说它是粉红色的。
747	Okay, but pink is different for Mike than it is for me.	好吧但粉红色对迈克来说和我不一样
748	That's what you're, where are you?	这就是你,你在哪里?
749	That's what you're saying.	汝所说法.
750	Okay.	摆
751	You might say you might not call it pink,	你可能会说你可能不会把它叫做粉红色,
752	you might actually call it red, because a lot of men,	你可能实际上叫它红色, 因为很多男人,
753	a lot of people think they're pink.	很多人认为他们是粉红色的。
754	A lot of people are useless at colors,	很多人的颜色都没用
755	is that what you're going to say?	你要这么说吗?
756	Well, there are a lot of people,	嗯,这里有很多人,
757	I mean, some people might say it's ginger,	我的意思是,有些人可能会说这是姜,
758	or pink, or some people say that it's pink.	或者粉红色,或者有些人说它是粉红色的。
759	Yeah, shall we not get into that?	是啊,我们不进去吗?
760	But isn't that the basis?	但这不就是依据吗?
761	How can we say that something is a fact?	我们怎么能说某事是事实?
762	Well, let's make a very important distinction	好吧,让我们有一个非常重要的区别
763	between epistemology and metaphysics here.	在流行病学和元物理学之间
764	There's one question, which is, is something a fact?	有个问题,那就是,是事实吗?
765	And there's another question, do we know it's a fact?	还有另一个问题,我们知道这是事实吗?
766	Okay.	摆
767	So let's talk about it is pink as a fact, okay,	所以,让我们谈谈它是粉红色的事实,好吗,
768	rather than do we know it's a fact.	而不是我们知道这是一个事实。
769	Wittgenstein告诉我们这个问题,
770	could we see it differently, is actually a non-question.	我们能不能用不同的眼光来看待它?
771	The answer is, no, this is getting too complicated,	答案是不这太复杂了
772	it's going to take us too far away from,	它会带我们太远,
773	I'm sorry, I don't want to tease you with this,	对不起,我不想用这个来逗你
774	but I just realized what I was about to get into.	但我刚意识到我即将进入的阶段
775	I'm just trying to clarify what you mean by saying,	我只是想澄清你说的是什么意思
776	you know, by definition, for me personally,	你知道,根据定义,对我来说,
777	if you say something, a belief is either true or false,	如果你说什么,一个信仰是真实的或虚假的,
778	how, I mean, by definition, for me,	我是说,对我来说,
779	a belief is something you can't prove or disprove	信仰是无法证明或反驳的
780	and just believe in, so how can we logically argue	只要相信,那么我们如何逻辑上争论
781	that God exists or not?	神是否存在?
782	Hang on, hang on, hang on, hang on.	坚持住,坚持住,坚持住
783	Oh, right, okay.	哦,对了,好吧。
784	You're using beliefs in a way that lots of people do,	你利用信仰的方式很多人这样做,
785	so actually I'm very glad you brought this up.	所以实际上我很高兴你提起这件事
786	People think of beliefs as things that you can't prove,	人们把信仰看作是你无法证明的事情
787	so you have either belief or you have knowledge.	所以,你们不是信仰就是知识。
788	Well, that's not how we use the word belief in philosophy.	我们不是用这个词来表达哲学的
789	A belief is something you postulate	信仰是你假设的
790	in explanation of someone's behavior	解释某人的行为
791	or is something you put forward as true or as false,	或你们所妄言的,
792	and it's certainly not the case	肯定不是这样
793	that it's something you can't prove.	那是你无法证明的事
794	I mean, there are many beliefs that we can prove.	我的意思是,有很多信念我们可以证明。
795	I mean, I believe that two plus two is four,	我的意思是,我相信二加二是四,
796	and I dare say that you wouldn't want me to even attempt	我敢说你不想我尝试
797	to prove that because you believe it too.	来证明这一点因为你相信它。
798	Is that reasonable?	合理吗?
799	Okay, so here's a belief that we believe is conclusive, true,	好吧,所以这里有一个信念我们相信是决定性的,正确的,
800	so we don't mean belief to mean religious belief	所以我们不意味着信仰是指宗教信仰
801	or something like that.	或者类似的东西。
802	Look, this is perhaps it.	你看,这也许是它。
803	If we go back to this, let's use chair,	如果我们回到这个,让我们使用椅子,
804	concept of chair, and chair here.	椅子的概念,这里的椅子。
805	So a chair is something I can draw, okay?	所以我可以画一张椅子,好吗?
806	I can't draw the concept of a chair, can I?	我不能画一个椅子的概念,是吗?
807	I can only entertain it,	我只能娱乐它,
808	and I can say chair has five letters.	我可以说椅子有五个字母
809	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
810	Okay, chairs exist.	好吧,椅子存在。
811	Now, that's a fact which I can think about.	现在,这是我可以想到的事实。
812	Do chairs exist?	有椅子吗?
813	Barclay said that chairs didn't exist	巴克利说没有椅子
814	except as perceptions in my mind,	除了在我脑海里的感受
815	and of course I can then talk about what I'm thinking about.	我当然可以谈论我在想什么
816	So the fact that chairs exist, if indeed it is a fact,	因此,事实上,椅子的存在, 如果这是事实,
817	is something we can think about and talk about.	我们可以考虑和谈谈
818	Do you see the distinction?	你看到区别了吗?
819	You may not feel confident in using it at the moment,	你可能现在对使用它没有信心
820	but that's just a matter of practice.	但这只是实践的问题
821	If we confuse these three levels,	如果我们混淆这三层,
822	we will not think clearly because you might end up	我们不会清楚思考因为你可能会最终
823	thinking like the concept chair has five letters.	以为概念椅有五个字母
824	Well, concepts don't have any letters, actually.	实际上,概念上没有任何字母。
825	Or you might think chairs have five letters.	或者你可能认为椅子有五个字母。
826	Well, actually chairs don't have any letters.	其实椅子上没有信
827	It doesn't make sense to think that chairs have any letters.	认为椅子上有字母是没有道理的.
828	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
829	So going back to this one,	所以回到这个
830	if I said this jug is loud,	如果我说这罐子很响
831	what would you think?	你觉得呢?
832	This jug is loud.	这罐子很响
833	I would wonder if you mean it in a different context of saying it.	我想知道你是不是用另一种语境来形容
834	Well, and you'd be perfectly reasonable for you to mean it.	好吧,你会完全合理,你是认真的。
835	Because actually that doesn't make any sense, that sentence, does it?	因为实际上这没有任何意义, 这句话,是吗?
836	Because jugs aren't the sort of thing that can be loud.	因为罐子不是那种可以大声的东西。
837	It would have to be metaphorical,	它必须比喻,
838	I'd have to be being poetic or something like that.	我不得不是诗意之类的。
839	Or I would be displaying my misunderstanding of the word loud	不然我就会大喊大叫地表达我的误解
840	or the misunderstanding of the word jug.	或者对"罐子"这个词的误解
841	Is that right?	是吗?
842	When you say that argument is false,	当你说这种争论是虚假的,
843	you display the fact that you don't understand either the words argument or false.	你展现了一个事实,即你不明白词的争论或虚假。
844	These arguments can't be true or false.	这些论点不可能是真实的或虚假的.
845	Arguments can only be good or bad.	辩才能善恶.
846	They can be valid or invalid.	它们可以是有效的或无效的.
847	They can't be true or false.	它们不能是真实的或虚假的。
848	And that's because the only things that are true or false are beliefs or sentences,	因为只有信仰或判决才是真实或虚假的
849	the sentences that express beliefs.	表达信仰的句子
850	Now, in general, every day talk, we do talk about arguments being true or false.	现在,总的来说,我们每天都在谈论争论的真假。
851	You know, everybody does that.	你知道,每个人都这样做。
852	But if you want to learn how to appease it,	但如果你想学会如何安抚它
853	if you want to learn how to think clearly about arguments,	如果你想学习如何清晰地思考争论,
854	you must stop doing that because arguments can't be false.	你必须停止这样做,因为争论不可能是虚假的。
855	What is it for a belief to be false?	信何为虚妄.
856	If I talk about Mike is tall,	如果我说迈克很高
857	what is it for that belief to be false?	这种信念有什么错?
858	Small.	小一点
859	It's for the thing that I mean by Mike to not be in the class of things that are tall.	我意思是迈克不要在高档上
860	Is that right?	是吗?
861	And arguments are sets of sentences.	辩论是一组句子。
862	You can't evaluate them in that way, can you?	你不能这样评价他们对吧?
863	Isn't it a term, though, that there's a form of argument that is termed the truth preserving?	不过,这难道不是个术语吗? 有一种被称为真理保存的争论形式?
864	All arguments are truth preserving.	所有的论点都是维护真理的。
865	Or at least all good arguments are truth preserving.	或者至少所有好的论点都是保留真理的。
866	Because the truth of the premises is preserved in the truth of the conclusion.	因为馆舍的真相保存在结论的真相中.
867	So to say there's an argument is truth preserving.	所以说有争论是维护真理。
868	And we'll talk about that later on.	我们稍后再谈
869	We're not saying it's true.	我们不是说这是真的。
870	But we're not saying the argument is true.	但我们不是说这个论点是真的。
871	We're saying it's truth preserving, which is a different thing in time.	我们说这是保存真理这在时间上是不一样的
872	Okay.	摆
873	Do we understand this?	明白了吗?
874	This is crucially important because to understand what truth is,	这一点至关重要因为要了解真相
875	is to see that it's predicated only of sentences and beliefs, not of arguments.	也就是说它只是判决和信仰的前提而不是争论
876	And to understand what an argument is, is to see that it can't be true or false.	而知其辩,即见其不能真假.
877	I think you can see that in the argument about the word and the witch.	我想你可以在关于这个词和女巫的争论中看到这一点.
878	You can see what?	你看见什么了?
879	That it can't be?	不可能吗?
880	That it was a valid argument.	说这是个合理的论点。
881	Right.	对
882	Doesn't that differ from truth?	这与事实不同吗?
883	The truth is only contained in that argument.	事实只包含在这一论点中。
884	Nobody would say that a witch is made of wood unless you bought it at a store.	没人会说女巫是木头做的除非你在商店买的
885	But in terms of the way the argument was constructed, the reason was valid.	但从论证方式来看,理由是有效的.
886	Yeah.	对
887	I'm not sure how to unpack what you're saying here, except to say that that's actually...	我不知道怎么解开你在这里说的话除了说这其实...
888	Oh, yes, that was an argument.	哦,是的,这是一个争论。
889	It's an argument because we're saying that that is true.	这是一个争论,因为我们说这是事实。
890	And we're offering as reasons for believing it's truth the truth of that and the truth of that.	而我们提出的理由相信这是事实真相和真相。
891	Okay.	摆
892	So the argument itself is a good one.	所以这个论点本身是好的.
893	And you use the word valid, and we'll get on to valid at some point next week, I think.	你用有效这个词, 我们下周某个时候就会生效。
894	But the argument itself can't be true or false.	但争论本身不能是真假.
895	But the sentences that constitute the argument can, of course, be either true or false.	但构成争论的句子当然可以是真实的,也可以是虚假的.
896	So if the sentences are false, does it make the argument bad?	所以,如果句子是虚假的,是否使争论变得糟糕?
897	Well, that's a very important one.	嗯,这是一个非常重要的。
898	We'll come to that later.	我们稍后再谈这个
899	So does that sentence actually contain three assertions?	这句话真的包含三个断言吗?
900	It contains three sentences, each of which could be used as an assertion.	它包含三句,每一句都可以用作断言.
901	And in order for a sentence to be an assertion, it's got to be assertive.	而要使句子成为一种断言,就必须是肯定的.
902	And I'm not really asserting this, I'm just talking about it.	我并不是说这个我只是在说这个
903	So we have three potential assertions, each of which is either true or false.	因此,我们有三个潜在的断言,每个断言都是真实的或虚假的.
904	And together, they make up the argument because two are being offered as reasons for believing the truth of the other.	他们共同组成了争论,因为两个被提出来作为相信另一个真理的理由.
905	Right.	对
906	Okay.	摆
907	A good argument.	一个很好的争论。
908	This is coming on to your point now.	这才是你的观点
909	A good argument must have at least two characteristics.	一个好的论点必须至少有两个特征.
910	Actually, it needs many more than two characteristics, but there are two that we're really interested in.	实际上,它需要两个以上的特点, 但我们真正感兴趣的有两个。
911	These are the two.	这是两个。
912	The conclusion must follow from the premises, and the premises must all be true.	结论必须从房地中得出,房地必须全部是真的。
913	If both those things are true, you've got a good argument.	如果这两件事都是真的, 你有一个很好的争论。
914	If one of these things, if the conclusion doesn't follow, then even if the premises are true, you haven't got a convincing argument.	如果其中之一,如果结论没有遵循,那么即使前提是真的,你也没有令人信服的论据.
915	Or if the premises are not true, even though the conclusion follows, then you haven't got a good argument in that way because the premises are false.	或者说,即使结论是这样的,但如果前提不真实,那么你也没有这样的好争论,因为前提是假的.
916	But having said that, we're interested only in argument in this session.	但是说到这一点,我们只对本届会议的辩论感兴趣。
917	We're not actually interested in the truth of the premises at all.	我们其实对这里的真相一点兴趣都没有.
918	We're interested only in whether the arguments follow from, sorry, whether the conclusion follows from the premises.	我们只关心这些论点是否源于,抱歉,结论是否源于前提.
919	So as logicians generally, we're not in the business of going out to the world to see whether premises are true or false.	因此,作为逻辑学家,我们一般不从事到世界去考察房地是真实的还是虚假的生意.
920	We're only in the business of seeing whether the relation between the premises and the conclusion is such that the conclusion follows from the premises.	我们只负责看房地与结论的关系是否如此,从而得出来自房地的结论.
921	And as we'll see next week, there are loads of different ways in which conclusions can follow from premises.	正如我们下周所看到的, 有很多不同的方式, 得出的结论可以从前提。
922	So I would often talk about some arguments being good, even though the premises, I mean, let's take this one.	所以,我经常说一些争论是好的, 尽管前提,我的意思是,让我们来做这个。
923	Is that a good argument or not?	这是不是很好的论点?
924	It's good in the logician sense, isn't it?	这在逻辑学意义上是好的,不是吗?
925	I mean, actually, the premises are all false, aren't they?	我的意思是,实际上, 房地都是假的,不是吗?
926	They're both false.	二者虚妄.
927	There are only two premises of this argument.	这一论点只有两个前提。
928	They're both false.	二者虚妄.
929	It's not Friday.	这不是星期五。
930	It's Monday.	这是星期一。
931	And Marianne always wears jeans on Friday.	玛丽安星期五总是穿牛仔裤
932	It's also false.	亦是虚妄.
933	You'll have to take it from me.	汝当得取.
934	So that's not a good argument from the point of view of the premises.	因此,从前提的角度来说,这不是一个很好的论点.
935	But as far as a logician is concerned, that is a good argument because the conclusion follows from the premises.	但就逻辑学家而言,这是一个很好的论点,因为结论来自前提。
936	OK.	摆
937	So if we were actually using that argument to say anything, we'd want the premises to be true as well.	所以,如果我们真的用这个论点来说什么, 我们就会希望这些前提也是真的。
938	But as we're just talking about the argument in order to say what's a good argument and what isn't a good argument, that will do.	但当我们只是谈论争论,以说什么是好争论,什么不是好争论,这就可以了.
939	In fact, that's a conclusive argument, isn't it?	事实上,这是一个结论性的论点,不是吗?
940	If the premises are true there, the conclusion would have to be true.	如果这里的房地是真的,那么结论必须是真实的。
941	So it's a very good argument.	故辩才甚妙.
942	Are there premises in the argument?	争论中是否有前提?
943	No, because if the premises are true here, the conclusion would have to be true, wouldn't it?	不,因为如果这里的建筑是真实的,那么结论必须是真实的,不是吗?
944	Which is something?	什么东西?
945	What, what?	什么,什麽?
946	Not on the next day.	次日不见.
947	Before a Friday.	一个星期五之前
948	Well, then it wouldn't be true that Marianne always wears jeans on Friday.	那么玛丽安星期五总是穿牛仔裤不是真的
949	You'd say Marianne always wore jeans on Friday, maybe.	你说玛丽安星期五总是穿牛仔裤
950	Yes.	对
951	What do you mean?	你说什么?
952	I'm not sure dead people wear jeans at all, actually.	我不确定死人会穿牛仔裤
953	Could you just remind them, what makes the premise true?	你能提醒他们吗? 是什么使前提变得真实?
954	Is that the facts as well?	这也是事实吗?
955	A premise is true if there's, actually you're asking a huge philosophical question there, but let me just say, yes, if there's a fact that makes the sentence true, then it's true.	如果有的话,一个前提是真实的,实际上你正在问一个巨大的哲学问题,但是让我说,是的,如果有事实使句子成真,那么它就是真实的.
956	Oh, I can't believe I said that.	哦,我不能相信我说。
957	That's awful, but never mind, that'll do.	这太可怕了,但没关系,那就够了。
958	What were you going to say?	你想说什么?
959	You can't always say that you always wear jeans on Friday, because you haven't had all your Fridays, have you?	你不能总是说你总是穿牛仔裤在星期五, 因为你还没有所有你的星期五,是吗?
960	Well, I hope so.	我希望是这样
961	If I haven't had all my Fridays, it's alright.	如果我还没有所有我的星期五, 这是正常的。
962	You can't actually say that, because you can't say that you always wear jeans.	你不能这么说因为你不能说你总是穿牛仔裤
963	This is inductive.	这很诱人
964	This is actually a type of argument we're going to be looking at next week, which is the inductive arguments.	这其实是下周我们将要研究的一种争论, 这就是引论。
965	And inductive arguments always take us further than we can actually go by claiming something like swans are always white.	引人入胜的论据总是让我们走得更远, 比我们实际上可以走声称的东西像天鹅总是白色的。
966	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday.	玛丽安每周五都穿牛仔裤
967	But you could still say that...	但你还是可以说...
968	We're not going to get into knowledge, the philosophy of knowledge is definitely not on this curriculum.	我们不会进入知识, 知识的哲学肯定不是在这个课程。
969	Okay, going back to what I was saying there.	好吧,回到我刚才说的话。
970	Okay, so	好吧,这样吧
971	do you understand the difference between the truth of the premise and the conclusions following from the	你是否理解前提的真相与以下结论之间的区别?
972	premises?	房子吗?
973	That's the important thing.	这才是最重要的
974	And it's because what makes an argument good is that the conclusion follows from the	因为它使一个争论是好的是结论从
975	premises, that you've got to distinguish the goodness of an argument from the truth of the premises.	你必须把辩论的善良和场馆的真相区分开来
976	Truth, just because truth is a good thing and validity, say, is a good thing doesn't make them the same thing.	真理,只是因为真理是一件好事,是正当的,可以说,是一件好事,并不让他们成为同样的事情.
977	That's the important thing.	这才是最重要的
978	We mustn't just take validity as a sort of general pro-word and in the same way truth	我们不能仅仅把有效性作为一种一般的亲词和同样的方式真理
979	isn't just a general pro-word.	不只是一个一般的亲词。
980	Okay, let's have a look at these arguments.	好吧,让我们来看看这些争论。
981	Okay, one of them is good, one of them is bad.	好吧,其中一个是好的,一个是坏的。
982	Don't	别
983	call out, but just have a look at them yourselves and decide which is the good one and which is the bad one.	喊出来,但只要自己看看他们并决定谁是好,谁是坏。
984	Who's decided?	谁决定了?
985	Alright, a bit more time.	好吧,多一点时间。
986	Okay, who's decided?	好吧,谁决定了?
987	Okay, is that a good argument?	好吧,这是个很好的争论吗?
988	Is that a good argument?	这是很好的辩论吗?
989	Well done.	干得不错
990	Yeah, absolutely.	当然
991	You see, you don't need to come to this class at all.	你看,你不需要来这个班级。
992	No, you're absolutely right.	不,你绝对是对的。
993	This is a deductive argument, it gives us absolute certainty in the following sense.	这是一个推理性的论点,它使我们在以下意义上具有绝对的确定性。
994	If these premises, and I'll read out the premises, if it's Monday the lecture will finish at 3.30, it is Monday,	如果这些房子,我会读出房子,如果是星期一讲座将在3点30分结束,这是星期一,
995	therefore the lecture will finish at 3.30.	因此,讲座将于3时30分结束。
996	If these premises are both true, this conclusion would have to be true, wouldn't it?	如果这两个前提都是真的,这个结论必须是真实的,不是吗?
997	It couldn't be false if those two premises are both true.	如果这两个前提都是真的,那是不可能的。
998	So the truth of the premises is preserved in the truth of the conclusion there.	因此,该院落的真相被保存在那里的结论的真相中.
999	You couldn't have those two premises true in that conclusion, not so if you believe those two premises,	如果你相信那两个前提
1000	rationally speaking, you must believe that conclusion.	理性地说,你必须相信这个结论。
1001	Okay, that's what it is to be a rational animal and	好吧,这就是它是什么一个理性的动物和
1002	instantly I say you're wasting your time in this lecture if you knew that.	我马上说,如果你知道的话, 你在浪费你的时间来讲课。
1003	Of course, that's nonsense because	当然,那是废话因为
1004	you're all rational animals, you have to be rational animals,	你们都是理性的动物你们必须是理性的动物
1005	you wouldn't be here if you weren't because you saw the leaflet or whatever you saw and you thought that sounds interesting,	如果你不在这里,你就不会在这里因为你看到传单或你看到的一切你觉得这听起来很有趣,
1006	I would like to go to that lecture, that lecture starts at 2 o'clock on Monday, whatever day this is at the moment,	我想去讲课,讲课在星期一2点开始, 不管今天是什么日子,
1007	therefore I will go to that lecture hall.	因此,我将去演讲厅。
1008	Did you not?	是吗?
1009	You had loads of reasons.	你有很多理由。
1010	So we're talking theoretical arguments here, but of course actually arguments are the most practical thing in the world.	我们在这里谈的是理论论证, 但当然,辩论是世界上最实际的。
1011	Your bit of practical reasoning led you here.	你的一点实际推理引导你来到这里。
1012	So each one of you is rational.	所以你们每个人都是理性的。
1013	What we're doing in these lectures is learning how to	我们在这些讲座中所做的就是学习如何
1014	explicate our	解释我们
1015	capacity for reason.	说明理由的能力。
1016	Okay, you know whether a conclusion follows from premises or not.	好吧,你知道一个结论是否来自房地。
1017	That's why when you argue in the pub with your son's daughter's wife's or whoever,	这就是为什么当你在酒吧里和你儿子的女儿的妻子或者任何人争论,
1018	you know whether what you're hearing is a good argument or not.	你知道你听到的是不是个好辩论
1019	There's something wrong with that argument, you say as you read the leader in the newspaper or as you hear the person on television or something like that.	这种争论有些不对劲,你说当你在报纸上读到领袖,或者当你在电视上听到这个人之类的话时.
1020	Something wrong with that argument.	那个论点有问题
1021	Your intuitions, your rational intuitions are telling you	你的直觉你的理性直觉告诉你
1022	what you need to know, but what you're doing in these classes is learning how to make explicit	你需要知道的, 但你在这些课上在做什么是学习如何明确
1023	your intuitions, what your intuitions are telling you.	你的直觉你的直觉告诉你的
1024	Okay, so your intuitions tell you, in that category, that's a good argument, that's a bad argument.	好吧,所以你的直觉告诉你, 在这个类别, 这是一个很好的争论, 这是一个坏争论。
1025	What's wrong with this one?	这个怎么了?
1026	Yes, okay, everything I heard there is good.	是的,好吧,我听到的一切都很好。
1027	Okay, let me ask you a question.	好吧,让我问你一个问题。
1028	Could it be the case that these two premises are true and yet this conclusion falls?	这两种前提是否属实,而这一结论是否属实?
1029	Okay, can anyone give me a counter example to this argument?	好吧,谁能给我一个反例这个论点?
1030	Let me read them out again.	让我再读一遍
1031	Who can't hear?	谁听不见?
1032	If it's Monday, the lecture will finish at 3.30.	如果在星期一,演讲会在3点30分结束.
1033	The lecture will finish at 3.30.	讲座将在3点30分结束。
1034	Therefore, it's Monday.	因此,现在是星期一。
1035	Okay, can anyone give me a counter example to that argument?	好吧,谁能给我一个反例来证明这个论点?
1036	A situation in which both those premises are true	两种情况都是真的
1037	and that conclusion is false.	而这个结论是错误的。
1038	A situation in which both those premises are true and that conclusion is false.	这两种前提都是真实的,结论是错误的。
1039	Good, well done.	干得不错
1040	Or Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, exactly.	周三、周四、周五
1041	And this says if it's Monday, the lecture will finish at 3.30.	这上面说,如果是星期一, 讲座将在3点30分结束。
1042	This merely says the lecture will finish at 3.30.	这只是说演讲将在3点30分结束。
1043	It could be Monday, but it might not be.	可能是星期一但也许不是
1044	Okay, so there is a situation in which both these premises are true and this conclusion is false.	好吧,所以有这样一种情况, 这两个前提都是真实的, 这个结论是虚假的。
1045	Therefore, this is a bad argument.	因此,这是一个糟糕的论点。
1046	It's an invalid argument.	辩才无效.
1047	It's actually an	其实是
1048	instance of the fallacy of affirming the consequence.	证实后果是错误的。
1049	Because do you see that the	因为,你看到
1050	lectures and the arguments, whatever they are, they look very similar, but of course they're not because this one's taken the	演讲和辩论,不管它们是什么, 它们看起来非常相似, 但当然不是因为这一个拿了
1051	antecedent as the second premise and this one's taken the consequence as the second premise.	以前是第二个前提这个假设是第二个前提
1052	And we'll be learning a lot more about fallacies later on in the course.	我们以后会学到更多关于谬论的
1053	But that's it for today.	不过今天就到此为止吧
1054	Next week, we're going to look at all the different sorts of arguments there are	下周,我们将看各种各样的争论
1055	and how to distinguish them from each other.	如何区分他们彼此。
1056	And then we're going to get on to learning how to set them out properly and how to evaluate them.	然后我们开始学习如何正确设定它们,如何评价它们。
1057	Okay, we've got a quarter of an hour for questions.	好吧,我们有一个半小时的问题。
1058	Can you tell me how to do the car part perfectly?	你能告诉我如何完美地完成汽车部分吗?
1059	No, that's easy.	不,这很简单。
1060	You can try reading Hazel.	你可以试试看海瑟
1061	She might be able to tell you what I doubted.	她也许能告诉你我怀疑什么
1062	Who was this partly the thought of chair of assembly of concept and what did he sit on?	谁是概念组合主席,他坐在什么位置?
1063	He didn't think of chair of assembly of concept.	他没有想到概念组合的主席.
1064	It was Bishop Barclay, George Barclay, who lived, I don't know where he lived, I'm sorry, I don't remember the dates.	是巴克莱主教乔治·巴克莱(英语:George Barclay)居住,我不知道他住在哪里,对不起,我不记得日期了.
1065	He believed that our only reason for believing that something exists is because we can either see it now	他相信我们相信有东西存在的唯一理由就是我们现在可以看见它
1066	or that we could see it under some other circumstances.	或者我们可以在其他情况下看到它。
1067	So if I claim, okay, what makes it true that this lectern exists?	所以,如果我声称, 好吧,是什么使它真正存在这种语言?
1068	We can see it, we can hear it, we can touch it, all sorts of things.	我们可以看到它,我们听到它, 我们可以触摸它,各种事情。
1069	What's more, we also believe that were we to come back tonight at midnight	还有,我们也相信我们今晚午夜回来
1070	and nobody had moved us and so on, all other things being equal, it would still be here.	没有人动过我们等等, 所有其他的事情都是平等的, 它仍然在这里。
1071	So there we have an appeal to actual perceptions, we can see it now,	因此,我们有一个吸引力对于实际的看法, 我们现在可以看到它,
1072	and we've got an appeal to counterfactual perceptions.	我们有一个反事实感
1073	If we came at twelve o'clock we would be able to see it.	如果我们在12点来,我们会看到它。
1074	And Barclay says, you give me a reason for thinking that anything exists	巴克利说,你给我一个理由认为一切存在
1075	that doesn't depend upon actual or counterfactual perceptions,	这不取决于实际或反事实的看法,
1076	sorry, let me rephrase that, you will not be able to give me a reason	对不起,我再说一遍,你无法给我一个理由
1077	for thinking that anything exists that doesn't appeal to one or other of those two.	认为任何事物都无法吸引这两个人
1078	Therefore, if something is unperceivable, then you have no reason for thinking it exists.	因此,如果某事是不可观察的,那么你没有理由认为它存在.
1079	What about concepts?	概念呢?
1080	Well, we experience concepts all the time, don't we?	我们经常体验概念不是吗?
1081	Do they exist?	他们存在吗?
1082	You wouldn't be thinking, a concept is a constituent of a thought,	你不会在想,一个概念是一个思想的组成部分,
1083	so as long as you think you think, then you will think in concepts	只要你想,你会思考的概念
1084	and you have reason for thinking concepts exist.	你有理由思考概念存在。
1085	Sorry.	对不起
1086	Is that the same sort of thing as virtually collapsing in the middle of some forest somewhere	这跟在某处森林中几乎崩溃一样
1087	but nobody hearing it and making noise?	但没人听到制造噪音?
1088	Yes, I mean the fact is if you were in the forest you would hear it,	是的,我的意思是,如果你在森林里你会听到它,
1089	because your experience is in other forests you have been in,	因为你的经验是在其他森林里
1090	but it would make a noise.	但它会发出声音。
1091	No, your reason for thinking that noise exists is that you would hear it if you were there,	不,你认为噪音存在的原因是如果你在那里你会听到它,
1092	so that's a counterfactual perception that you're basing that on.	因此,这是一个反事实感觉你基于这一点。
1093	Barclay is very important, and he's a fascinating philosopher actually,	巴克利很重要他是一个迷人的哲学家
1094	he thinks that physical objects are made up of ideas of ours,	他认为物理物体是由我们的想法组成的,
1095	he's one of the first idealists,	他是最早的理想主义者之一,
1096	and he doesn't mean that you can put your hand through this because it's an idea,	他并不代表你可以把你的手穿过这个,因为这是一个想法,
1097	he just means that my idea of this lectern is an idea made up partly of solidity,	他只是说,我的想法这个演讲是一个想法部分由固态,
1098	the idea that if I do that I won't be able to push any further,	如果我这么做,我无法再继续前进
1099	that's a perception, notice, that's a perception.	这是感知,注意,那是感知。
1100	It's a bundle of perceptions.	即是一束觉.
1101	Is it as well that we have second order accounts of ours,	我们是否也有第二顺序的账号
1102	this idea that what we see is actually the result of a reaction in the brain	我们所看到的其实是大脑反应的结果
1103	to something that's computer left and only gets translated into a particular way?	只能被翻译成特定的方式?
1104	I think it's sense data perhaps, so that we never see the object directly,	我认为这也许是感官数据这样我们就不会直接看到物体
1105	we just see the data.	我们只是看到数据。
1106	There are some ways of thinking about sense data,	有一些方法思考感知数据,
1107	one way is now very old fashioned, we don't think of it that way anymore,	一种方式是现在非常古老的, 我们不再这样想,
1108	Russell和Wittgenstein 和这样的人就是这样想的
1109	which is that we never see the thing itself, we only ever see an idea in our mind,	就是我们从来没有看到东西本身, 我们只看到一个想法在我们的脑海里,
1110	and why would you think that's the answer?	为什么你认为这就是答案?
1111	Are you really sure that I'm here?	你真的确定我在这里?
1112	Your reason for believing that I'm here is you can see me, hear me and so on,	你相信我在这里的理由是你可以看到我,听到我等等,
1113	but couldn't it be with you exactly as it is now and yes it not be true that I'm here?	但不能跟你在一起就像现在一样是的我在这里不是真的
1114	When you say no, have you ever had a lucid dream that you said no?	当你说不的时候,你有没有做过一个清晰的梦你说不?
1115	Oh you said no, sorry.	哦,你说不,对不起。
1116	You said no.	你说不。
1117	So you don't think that you can have an experience as if I were here doing what I'm doing and yet I'm not here?	所以你不认为你可以有经验就像我在这里做我在做什么而我却不在这里?
1118	You'll probably have one of those tonight.	你今晚可能会吃这种
1119	Genie would be one, but here's another one,	精灵会是其中之一, 但这里还有一个,
1120	what you think at the moment is that you're having perceptions as of me,	你现在认为你对我的看法
1121	and what's causing those perceptions is me.	造成这些感觉的是我
1122	And what's more, your perceptions are a good guide to what I'm like.	更重要的是,你的看法能很好地指导我的感受。
1123	But look, if we talk about the causal relation,	但是,如果我们谈论因果关系,
1124	if we think that A causes B, we have to know about both A and B, don't we?	如果我们认为A会引起B, 我们必须知道A和B,不是吗?
1125	We have to see that they're constantly conjoined, they're correlated, something like that.	我们必须看到它们经常交织在一起, 它们彼此相关,类似的东西。
1126	So we've got to be standing here, if you like, to see that A and B are correlated,	所以,我们必须站在这里,如果你喜欢, 看A和B是相互关联的,
1127	but if you're thinking of B as a chair and A as your idea of a chair,	但如果你想把B当椅子,把A当椅子,
1128	and you can't get outside your ideas, and here is where you stand with respect to your perceptions, isn't it?	你无法走出你的想法, 这就是你站在你的看法,不是吗?
1129	How can you get outside your perceptions to see what causes them?	你怎么可以离开你的看法来了解是什么原因吗?
1130	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
1131	It's got an objective existence, because I can't change in a dream if it's a little dream.	它有客观的存在,因为如果是一个小梦,我无法在梦中改变.
1132	Yeah, but we're not talking about dreams now, we're talking about...	是的但我们现在不是在谈论梦想而是在谈论...
1133	But with something that's objectively actually out there, existing,	但有某种东西是客观上存在的
1134	the observer can't change the movement or whatever of that.	观察者不能改变运动或任何东西。
1135	Yeah, hang on, let me ask the question again.	是啊,等一下,让我再问一个问题。
1136	If we're talking about your idea of a chair, your ideas of a chair,	如果我们在谈论你对椅子的想法, 你对椅子的想法,
1137	your concepts of a chair and so on, and chairs,	你的概念一个椅子等等, 和椅子,
1138	can you get outside your idea of a chair in order to see that it's caused by a chair?	你能离开你的想法一个椅子,以便看到它是由椅子造成的?
1139	Now, if it can be with me, exactly as it is now, here I am,	现在,如果它可以和我在一起, 正是现在,我在这里,
1140	I'm looking at this chair, I'm touching the chair, I'm hearing the chair, all sorts of things,	我看着这把椅子,我碰了椅子, 我听到椅子,各种各样的东西,
1141	and yes, it's possible that I might be asleep, and there being no chair here.	是的,我可能睡着了这里没有椅子
1142	Even if I was asleep, I might want to say something like,	即使我睡着了,我也许想说点什么
1143	well, I must have experienced the chair before in order to be able to do this.	好吧,我以前一定经历过椅子才能做到这一点。
1144	I could say, well, why should I think in the first place	我可以说,嗯,为什么我应该思考首先
1145	that there is something that's causing my perceptions?	有什么东西引起我的看法?
1146	All I've got is my perceptions.	我只有我的感觉
1147	I can't get outside my perceptions to adopt this perspective on them, can I?	我无法超越我的认知对他们采取这种观点,对不对?
1148	So are you saying you could create the idea of a chair in your mind	你是说你可以在思想中创造出一个椅子的想法
1149	without actually having to see them?	而不一定要见他们?
1150	Maybe not me creating them, it may be an evil demon.	也许不是我创造的可能是邪恶的恶魔
1151	What I'm giving you here is the Cartesian thought experiment.	我给你的是笛卡尔思想实验
1152	The idea being that if you push what you know to the final degree,	想法是,如果你推你所知道的到最后的程度,
1153	you'll see that actually the only reason you believe in the physical universe	你会看到,实际上你相信物理宇宙的唯一原因
1154	and things outside yourself, and that includes your own body,	还有你身体以外的东西
1155	is because you assume that your perceptions are caused by something outside yourself,	是因为你认为你的看法是由你自己之外的东西引起的,
1156	outside your mind, and that your mind is a good guide to the nature of these things.	在你的心灵之外, 你的心灵是这些事物的本质的良好指南。
1157	And if you question both those perceptions, you're left with nothing.	如果你质疑这两种看法, 你就一无所有。
1158	Because what makes you think that there's something outside causing your perceptions	因为是什么让你觉得外面有些东西引起你的看法
1159	if all you can see is the perceptions themselves,	如果你能看见的只是感知本身
1160	rather than the causal relation between your perceptions and what that is causing them.	而不是你的看法和造成这些看法的原因之间的因果关系。
1161	We're getting a bit away from the critical reasoning here.	我们离批判性推理有点远了
1162	What you can see is the reaction on your ability to control what's around you.	你可以看到的是你控制周围事物的能力的反应。
1163	If we try to do something that the object doesn't do what it wants to do,	如果我们试图做一些事情物体不做它想要做的事,
1164	then couldn't it be that it's outside of you?	难道它不是在你之外吗?
1165	But all you're talking about is one experience after another, aren't you?	但你所说的只是一次又一次的经历,不是吗?
1166	There are some perceptions of mine that obey my will,	我有些看法是服从我的意志
1167	and there are other perceptions of mine that don't.	还有一些其他的看法对我,没有。
1168	That chair doesn't obey my will, that particular perception doesn't obey my will,	那把椅子不服从我的意愿, 特定的观念不服从我的意愿,
1169	whereas others do.	而其他人则如此。
1170	I think perhaps I've introduced the Cartesian thought experiment	我想我介绍过笛卡尔思想实验
1171	with too little time to convince you.	也没有多少时间说服你
1172	You can go away and read.	你可以走开看书
1173	The first meditation is very easy to read.	初禅冥想甚易读诵.
1174	Actually, it doesn't take much longer to read than...	实际上,读书的时间不会比...
1175	Who argues against it?	谁反对?
1176	Barclay.	巴克莱
1177	The Cartesian thought experiment completely revolutionised philosophy,	笛卡尔的思想实验彻底的革命哲学,
1178	because it revolutionised our belief that we could claim to have knowledge.	因为它改变了我们的信念我们可以声称有知识。
1179	Barclay attempted to get over that, because if we...	巴克利试图克服这一点, 因为如果我们...
1180	OK, here's the world, and here's our mind, and here's the evil demon.	好吧,这就是世界,这就是我们的思想,这就是邪恶的恶魔。
1181	If Descartes has shown that once this is in place,	如果笛卡尔已经证明,一旦这一点到位,
1182	and you see that could be exactly as it is whatever this is like,	你可以看到,这可能是完全一样它是什么样子,
1183	you need to say something about our knowledge of the external world.	你得谈谈我们对外界的了解
1184	What Barclay is doing is he's remaking the world in the mind.	巴克利正在做的是他在思想中重新塑造世界.
1185	So if there is nothing more to a physical object than a set of perceptions,	因此,如果一个物理物体没有什么比一组感知,
1186	and if the only thing of which we can have knowledge is our perceptions,	如果我们唯一能了解的就是我们的看法
1187	then there's no reason why we can't have knowledge of physical objects,	那么我们没有理由不能了解物理物体,
1188	if they are perceptions.	如果它们是感知。
1189	So Barclay was trying to show that we do have knowledge,	巴克利想证明我们有知识
1190	despite the Cartesian thought experiment.	尽管笛卡尔的思想实验。
1191	Anyway, there is no way we're going to...	无论如何,我们不可能...
1192	If you would like to know more about that,	如果你想知道更多情况
1193	you can come to another set of lectures.	你可以来另一套讲座。
1194	OK, I see there is time for one more question, if anyone would like one.	好吧,我想还有时间再问一个问题如果有人愿意的话
1195	There's one at the back there.	后面有个
1196	There are three books on the reading list.	阅览单上有三本书.
1197	No.	没有
1198	What do you mean, on what they're...	什么意思,他们是什么...
1199	Well, they're all good on them, or they wouldn't be on the reading list.	好吧,他们都很好他们不会在阅读列表。
1200	The short introduction to logic is very interesting,	对逻辑学的简短介绍非常有趣,
1201	and that's very easy to read, very short.	这很容易读,非常简短。
1202	So I'll have a go at that.	所以,我会试试。
1203	The Hackett book.	哈克特书.
1204	On the little leaflets that went...	在那些小传单上...
1205	OK, well, if you look outside, you'll find the leaflets on the thing,	好吧,如果你看外面, 你会找到传单的东西,
1206	and you should find the reading list back.	你应该找到读取列表。
1207	Sorry, say that again.	对不起,再说一遍。
1208	Yes, I know it sounds pretty, it's very irritating, isn't it?	是的,我知道这听起来很漂亮, 它非常刺激,不是吗?
1209	You can get it on Amazon.	你可以在亚马逊得到它。
1210	The reason it's irritating is it's a very good little book.	令人烦恼的原因是它是一个非常好的小书.
1211	If you can't find it on Amazon, let me know.	如果你在亚马逊找不到,告诉我
1212	You can't, that's right.	你不能,没错。
1213	OK.	摆
1214	I can't really read this by, sorry.	我读不出来,对不起。
1215	It's on the reading list.	释文表上.
1216	OK, I think we'll stop there.	好吧,我想我们会停止在那里。
1217	Thank you for coming, and see you next week.	谢谢你能来,下周见

该视频共有字幕 1226 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

P3 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p03 2. 2.论证的不同型态. (P3)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p03 2. 2.论证的不同型态. (P3)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 1:10:57

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	Okay, now we're on week two and this week we're going to look at different types of arguments and in particular we're going to look at deduction and induction.	好了,现在我们进入第二周了这周我们将研究不同类型的论点特别是我们将要研究推理和诱导
0:09	These are two basic types of arguments and we'll be looking at different examples of each type.	这些是两种基本的论证类型,我们将研究每种类型的不同的例子。
0:15	Welcome back everyone.	欢迎大家回来
0:16	So it didn't put you off entirely last week then.	所以上星期没有把你完全关掉
0:19	Difficult though it was, I'm sure it was difficult.	虽然很困难,但肯定很困难
0:23	Let's do a quick recap on last week so we can remember where we were.	上星期我们来回顾一下吧这样我们就能记得我们在哪里了
0:27	If you remember I said that arguments are sets of sentences such that one of them, the conclusion if you remember, is being said to be true and the others, called the premises, are being offered as reasons for believing the truth of the one or reasons for	如果你记得我说过,争论是一组句子,其中之一,如果你记得的话,结论是真实的,而其他人,即所谓的前提,是作为相信其中之一的真理的理由或相信该一的理由提出的。
0:45	Okay, so that's what an argument is and I said it was important to distinguish arguments from two things.	好吧,这就是一个争论是什么, 我说,重要的是区分争论和两件事。
0:52	Firstly, sets of sentences that aren't arguments and if you remember I gave there two sorts of sets of sentences that are not arguments, can anyone remember what they are?	首先,不是争吵的一组句子,如果你记得我给了那里两组不是争吵的句子,谁能记得它们是什么?
1:04	No, an assertion isn't an argument.	不,一个断言不是争论。

展开字幕全文（1223 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Okay, now we're on week two and this week we're going to look at different types of arguments and in particular we're going to look at deduction and induction.	好了,现在我们进入第二周了这周我们将研究不同类型的论点特别是我们将要研究推理和诱导
2	These are two basic types of arguments and we'll be looking at different examples of each type.	这些是两种基本的论证类型,我们将研究每种类型的不同的例子。
3	Welcome back everyone.	欢迎大家回来
4	So it didn't put you off entirely last week then.	所以上星期没有把你完全关掉
5	Difficult though it was, I'm sure it was difficult.	虽然很困难,但肯定很困难
6	Let's do a quick recap on last week so we can remember where we were.	上星期我们来回顾一下吧这样我们就能记得我们在哪里了
7	If you remember I said that arguments are sets of sentences such that one of them, the conclusion if you remember, is being said to be true and the others, called the premises, are being offered as reasons for believing the truth of the one or reasons for	如果你记得我说过,争论是一组句子,其中之一,如果你记得的话,结论是真实的,而其他人,即所谓的前提,是作为相信其中之一的真理的理由或相信该一的理由提出的。
8	Okay, so that's what an argument is and I said it was important to distinguish arguments from two things.	好吧,这就是一个争论是什么, 我说,重要的是区分争论和两件事。
9	Firstly, sets of sentences that aren't arguments and if you remember I gave there two sorts of sets of sentences that are not arguments, can anyone remember what they are?	首先,不是争吵的一组句子,如果你记得我给了那里两组不是争吵的句子,谁能记得它们是什么?
10	No, an assertion isn't an argument.	不,一个断言不是争论。
11	An assertion is the second thing from which you should distinguish arguments.	断言是第二件事,你应该区分争论。
12	So I said that there are two sets, I think you misunderstand my question slightly, whoever it was then.	所以我说,有两套, 我想你稍微误解了我的问题, 不管是谁。
13	So there are two things from which you distinguish arguments but the first one is sets of sentences and I said that there are two things, two types of sets of sentence that you need to distinguish from an argument.	所以,有两件事,你们可以区分争论,但是第一件事是一组句子,我说有两件事, 两类句子,你们需要区别于一个争论。
14	Can anyone remember what those two types of sets of sentences were?	有人记得这两类判决是什么吗?
15	Sorry?	你说什么?
16	No?	是吗?
17	Okay, maybe that's not a fair question.	好吧,也许这是一个不公平的问题。
18	Okay, the first one is sets of sentences that aren't related at all.	好吧,第一个是一组句子是完全无关的。
19	Do you remember I talked about Sears, Salt and Melbourne's in Australia?	你还记得我说过西尔斯盐和墨尔本在澳大利亚的事吗?
20	Well, until you add therefore and a bit of context, that's not an argument, is it?	好吧,直到你添加因此和一些上下文, 这不是一个争论,是吗?
21	It's just two unrelated sentences.	仅是两句不相关.
22	And the second type of sets of sentence you should distinguish from arguments are those that are related but not as an argument is related, not as the sets of sentences that constitute an argument are related.	而第二类句子,你应该与论证区分的是那些相关但因论证而无关的句子,而不是构成论证的句子相关.
23	So in order for a set of sentences to be an argument, it's got to be related in the sense that the conclusion is being said to follow from the premises.	因此,为了让一组句子成为争辩,必须联系到一个意义上,就是说,结论是从前提中遵循的.
24	Okay, that's what an argument is, that one of the sentences of the set is being said to follow from the others.	好吧,这就是一个论点, 一组句子之一被说从其他句子。
25	If that relation isn't being said to be there, then it's not an argument.	如果说这种关系不存在那就不是争论了
26	The second thing from which you must distinguish an argument is a sentence.	第二件事,你必须区分一个争论是句子。
27	And can anyone remember how you distinguish sentences from arguments or one way at least in which you would distinguish a sentence from an argument?	有人记得你是如何区分句子和争论的吗? 或者至少你是如何区分句子和争论的?
28	What do you mean by premise?	你说的前提是什么意思?
29	A premise has a very particular definition.	前提有一个非常特别的定义。
30	The definition is that a premise is a sentence that's being offered as reason for believing the truth of the conclusion.	定义是,一个前提是一个句子,被提出来作为相信结论真相的理由.
31	So what the question is here is how do you distinguish a sentence or assertion from an argument?	因此,问题在这里是如何区分句子或断言和争论?
32	A sentence you could see as an incomplete argument, I suppose, but that's not what I was thinking of.	这句话你可能认为是不完整的争论,但我不是这么想的。
33	Certainly there's no conclusion, nothing being, well, there is something being postulated if the sentence is being asserted, isn't there?	当然没有结论,什么也没有,嗯, 有一些假设,如果判决是断言的,不是吗?
34	There's no relation, that's right.	没有关系,没错。
35	But okay, hang on, there's one more back there.	好吧,等一下,还有一个后面。
36	Say that again.	再说一遍
37	That's right, this is just a statement and a statement isn't an argument, is it?	没错,这只是声明,声明不是争论,是吗?
38	A statement isn't good or bad.	声明不善恶.
39	Well, it could be, I suppose, couldn't it?	嗯,它可能是,我想,不是吗?
40	A statement is true or false and an argument is good or bad.	陈述是真还是假,争论是好还是坏.
41	Do you remember?	你记得吗?
42	Very important that you shouldn't call arguments true or false because arguments can't be true or false.	非常重要的是,你不应该把辩词称为真或假,因为辩词不可能是真或假.
43	The only thing that can be true or false is the sentences that make up the argument.	唯一可以真实或虚假的就是构成争论的句子.
44	What an argument is is truth preserving.	争论是维护真理。
45	So if you have truth in the premises and it's a good argument, then the conclusion will be true.	所以,如果你有真理在前提这是一个很好的争论, 那么结论是真实的。
46	But notice it's the premises that are true and the conclusion that's true, not the argument itself.	但注意的是前提是真实的,结论是真实的,而不是争论本身.
47	The most the argument can be is truth preserving.	最多的论点是维护真理。
48	Okay, so that's distinguishing arguments from sets of sentences and from sentences themselves.	好吧,所以这是区分论点与句子和句子本身。
49	What we're going to do today is consider different types of arguments.	我们今天要做的是考虑不同类型的论证.
50	And we're going to start using some of the concepts that you've already mentioned this morning.	我们将开始使用一些你今天上午已经提到的概念。
51	So there are two basic types of argument.	所以有两种基本的论证类型.
52	There are deductive arguments and they're inductive arguments.	有一些推论,它们是推论.
53	This is a very basic type of argument because you'll see later there are lots of other types of arguments in these categories.	这是一种非常基本的论点,因为以后你会看到这些类别中有很多其他类型的论点。
54	But these two categories are the most important.	但这两个类别是最重要的.
55	These are the ones you need to get a grip on.	这些是你需要抓住的
56	Okay, let's look at deductive arguments first.	好吧,让我们先看看推论。
57	Now, these are such that the truth of their premises guarantees the truth of the conclusion.	现在,这些都使得他们的前提的真相保证了结论的真相.
58	So if the premises are true, then the conclusion must be true because if it's a good deductive argument, it's truth guaranteeing.	因此,如果假设是真实的,那么结论必须是真实的,因为如果这是一个很好的推理论证,那就是真理的保证.
59	So here's a deductive argument.	所以这里有一个推理论.
60	You'll be familiar with this one.	你会熟悉这个
61	We used it last week.	我们上周用过
62	It's Friday.	礼拜五
63	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday.	玛丽安每周五都穿牛仔裤
64	Therefore, Marianne is wearing jeans.	因此,玛丽安穿着牛仔裤。
65	Notice that the conclusion of this argument is true, but neither of the premises are.	请注意,这一论点的结论是真实的,但前提都不是。
66	So that that should give you an idea that the argument is a good one.	这样你就能明白争论是好的
67	The conclusion is true, but actually neither of the premises are true.	结论是真实的,但实际上这两个前提都不是真实的.
68	So this will be something we'll look at again when we look at what a good argument is next week relating to the real world.	接下来我们再看一看下周关于现实世界的好论点
69	That's right.	没错
70	It's not Friday.	这不是星期五。
71	Therefore, that premise is false.	因此,这一前提是错误的。
72	It's not true.	非实非实.
73	You'll have to take it from me on authority that I don't always wear jeans on a Friday.	你不得不从我的权力, 我并不总是穿牛仔裤在星期五。
74	I do happen to be wearing jeans today, but of course that's irrelevant because it's neither Friday nor is it the case that I always wear jeans on a Friday.	今天我确实穿着牛仔裤, 但当然这无关紧要, 因为它既不是星期五,也不是我总是在星期五穿牛仔裤。
75	But what's important about this argument is that it's deductive.	但是,这个论点很重要的是,它是推论性的.
76	It's truth guaranteeing at least conditionally upon the truth of the premises.	这是事实,至少有条件地保证房地的真相。
77	Can you think of any situation?	你能想到什么情况吗?
78	I really try and use your ingenuity here.	我真的想利用你的才华
79	Let's see if we can get in which that would be true.	让我们看看我们能不能找到那是真的
80	OK, it isn't true.	好吧,这不是真的。
81	We know that.	我们知道这一点。
82	But we're assuming for the sake of argument that it is true.	但我们假设这是真的
83	So imagine a situation where that's true and that's true for some reason.	所以,想象一下一个情况,这是真实的,也是出于某种原因的.
84	I always wear jeans on a Friday.	我每周五总是穿牛仔裤
85	Could that be false?	会不会是假的?
86	Can anyone think you might have lost them?	有人会认为你失去了他们吗?
87	Well, well, that that would that wouldn't that make that not true?	那么,那不会使那不是真的吗?
88	No, no, it doesn't.	不,不,它没有。
89	I may not.	我可能不会。
90	I may hate wearing jeans.	我可能讨厌穿牛仔裤
91	That may mean nothing to do with it.	这可能与此事无关。
92	I may wear jeans as a penance on a Friday because I once did something really ghastly and said to myself, right.	我可能穿着牛仔裤作为周五的忏悔因为我曾经做过可怕的事对自己说,没错
93	OK, from now on, I'm always going to wear jeans on a Friday.	好吧,从现在开始,我每星期五都要穿牛仔裤
94	So it doesn't say that I want to.	所以它没有说我想。
95	Can anyone think of a counter example?	有人能想到一个反例吗?
96	OK, so it's true.	好吧,所以这是真的。
97	It would be Friday on that day.	当天是星期五
98	But would this be true?	但这是真的吗?
99	No, it wouldn't, would it?	不会吧?
100	So we've given what we've given there is a falsification of that, not a counter example to the argument.	因此,我们给出了我们所给出的,这是伪造的,而不是一个反驳这个论点的例子.
101	OK, do you see where I'm getting at?	好了,你看见我说什么了吗?
102	What we're doing is we're distinguishing the truth of the premises from the truth preservingness of the argument.	我们正在做的是,我们区分前提的真相和维护真相的论点。
103	Lots of us can think of situations where that's false or where that's false.	我们很多人都能想到那些虚假或虚假的情况.
104	But that's not what I'm asking you to do.	但我不是要你这么做的
105	What I'm asking you to do is to think of a situation where that's true and that's true and that's false.	臣所请之事,乃思一时之情,实与虚实,实与虚实.
106	It is, isn't it?	是吗?
107	Well, hang on.	好吧,坚持住。
108	There are a couple of other examples here.	这里还有其他几个例子。
109	Let's try one.	让我们试试一个。
110	So I'm on the moon or something like that.	所以我在月球上之类的。
111	Very ingenious.	非常有才华
112	I think what we're talking about is a situation where these two are true together.	我认为,我们所说的是这两个人在一起是真实的。
113	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
114	And what you're giving me is one where it's not Friday, aren't you?	你给我的不是星期五,对吧?
115	Really?	真的吗?
116	You're trying to make it not Friday somehow by shifting me out of a time zone in which it is Friday.	你想把我从周五的时区里移到周五里来
117	No, it won't do.	不不会的
118	But we don't need to guarantee it because all we're doing, we're saying this is true if this is true and if this is true.	但是,我们不需要保证,因为我们所做的一切,我们说这是真的,如果这是真的,如果这是真的.
119	We're not saying this is true.	我们不是说这是真的。
120	I mean, this is another very important distinction.	我的意思是,这是另一个非常重要的区别。
121	When you're doing logic, you're not talking about the actual truth value of a sentence.	在做逻辑时,你不是在说句子的实际真实价值.
122	OK, so the truth value of that could be either true or false.	好吧,所以真理的价值可以是真实的或虚假的。
123	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
124	So that's the value of its truth is either true or false.	因此,这就是其真理的价值是真实的还是虚假的.
125	And we're not saying it is true, but we're saying if it's true and if this is true, this can't be false.	且吾等亦不说此真谛,但说此真谛,若此真谛,此不可谬也.
126	And as you rightly said, actually, if these two are true, it's impossible for this to be false.	正如你正确说过的,事实上,如果这两个是真的,这是不可能的。
127	It really is, isn't it?	真的,不是吗?
128	Well, if we're looking at an argument, we're saying we're asking ourselves two questions.	好吧,如果我们看一个争论, 我们说我们自己问两个问题。
129	The questions are does the conclusion follow from the premises?	问题是,结论是否来自房地?
130	And in asking that, what we're asking is if the premises were true, would the conclusion be true?	在问这个问题时,我们所问的是,如果房地是真的,那么结论是否是真的?
131	If the premises are true, would the conclusion be true?	如果馆舍是真的,结论是否是真的?
132	And if we look at these two premises and we ask that question, we're not asking whether the premises are true.	如果我们看看这两处建筑, 我们问这个问题, 我们不是在问这些建筑是否真实。
133	We're saying if they're true, would the conclusion be true?	我们说的是,如果它们是真的,结论会是真的吗?
134	And the answer is yes.	且答为是.
135	Can everyone see that?	大家都能看见吗?
136	This is a deductively valid argument.	这是一个推理有效的论据。
137	It's truth preserving.	这是维护真理。
138	And therefore, it's very, very useful because we know that if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.	因此,它非常,非常有用,因为我们知道,如果前提是真的,结论必须是真实的.
139	Now, in this particular case, this is not very useful because it's all hypothetical.	现在,在这个特殊的例子中,这个并不十分有用,因为它都是假设性的.
140	But can you imagine if this was something that we didn't know but we were wanting to test, then we could say, OK, it's Friday.	但是,你能想象,如果这是我们不知道的东西但我们想测试, 然后我们可以说,OK,这是星期五。
141	Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday.	玛丽安每周五都穿牛仔裤
142	Therefore, Marianne is wearing jeans.	因此,玛丽安穿着牛仔裤。
143	Then if you see that I'm not wearing jeans, what do you know?	如果你看到我没穿牛仔裤,你知道什么?
144	One or other of these isn't true exactly.	这其中的一种或另一种并不是真的。
145	So if you see that Marianne isn't wearing jeans, you know either that it's not Friday, that that one's false, or that Marianne always wears jeans on a Friday is itself false.	所以,如果你看到玛丽安没有穿牛仔裤, 你知道,要么它不是星期五, 那一个是假的, 要么玛丽安总是穿牛仔裤在星期五本身就是虚假的。
146	So you know either your hypothesis is false or your observation is false.	所以你知道你的假说是假的或者你的观察是假的
147	Or sorry, you're quite right.	或者抱歉你说的对
148	Or both.	或同时兼有.
149	That's right.	没错
150	So if you have a valid argument, a deductively valid argument, the conclusion to which is false, you know that one of the premises must be false.	因此,如果您有合理的论证,推理有效的论证,其结论是虚假的,您知道其中一个前提必须是虚假的.
151	And that's why truth preserving this is useful, whatever the situation is, even if it turns out that the conclusion is false.	这也是为什么保留这个真理是有用的,不管情况如何,即使事实证明这个结论是错误的.
152	Anyway, again, that's something we'll talk about more next week.	总之,再说一遍,下星期我们再谈这个
153	The only thing that's important for now is that you understand what a deductively valid argument is.	现在唯一要紧的是你明白什么是推理有效的论点
154	You understand that it's truth preserving that if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.	你明白,这是真理维护,如果房地是真实的, 结论必须是真实的。
155	OK, everyone happy with that?	好了,大家都满意吗?
156	Let's move on.	让我们继续前进。
157	OK, you should note, incidentally, that deduction is an either or thing.	好吧,你应该顺便指出, 扣减是要么或是什么。
158	Either an argument is deductive, deductively valid, or it's not.	争论要么是推理性的,推理性的,要么不是.
159	OK, there's no in between there.	好吧,那里之间没有。
160	It's one or the other.	即是分别.
161	A good deductive argument gives us conditional certainty.	一个很好的推理给了我们有条件的确定性。
162	Certainty conditional upon the truth of the premises.	确定性取决于地点的真相。
163	Well done.	干得不错
164	I can feel you're getting it now.	我能感觉到你现在得到了它。
165	OK, a bad one tells us nothing, because if the argument isn't a good one, if it isn't truth preserving, then the conclusion could be either true or false.	好吧,一个坏的告诉我们什么, 因为如果争论不是一个好的论点, 如果它不是真理保存, 那么结论要么是真实的,要么是虚假的。
166	And we really don't know.	而我们真的不知道。
167	OK, so that's deduction.	好吧,这是扣除。
168	Let's move to induction.	动向入门.
169	Inductive arguments is such that the truth of their premises makes the conclusion either more or less probable.	引人入胜的论点是,其前提的真相使结论或多或少有可能。
170	OK, it doesn't give us certainty, makes the conclusion more or less probable.	好吧,它不给我们的确定性, 使结论或多或少的可能性。
171	Now, this means that inductive arguments can be either weak or strong.	现在,这意味着诱导性的论点可以是软弱的,也可以是强烈的.
172	OK, so here's an example of a strong inductive argument.	好吧,我举个例子来说明一个很强的诱导性论点。
173	The sun has risen every day in the history of the universe.	在宇宙历史上,太阳每天都升起.
174	Therefore, the sun will rise tomorrow.	因此,明天太阳会升起。
175	OK, that's a strong inductive argument.	好吧,这是一个强烈的诱导性论点。
176	Why isn't that a deductive argument?	为什么这不是一种推理论?
177	Sorry, what may not be true, because arguments can't be true, of course, can they?	对不起,什么可能不是真的, 因为争论不可能是真实的, 当然,他们可以吗?
178	This may not be true.	这可能不是真的。
179	OK, but we're saying if this is true, then this will be true.	好吧,但我们要说如果这是真的, 那么这是真的。
180	So why is that not deductively certain?	那么,为什么这不能肯定呢?
181	OK, so this could be true, and yet this false, and yet this is a good argument.	好吧,所以这可能是真的, 但这个错误, 然而这是一个很好的争论。
182	Yeah, good.	是啊,不错。
183	Well done.	干得不错
184	That's exactly right.	没错
185	The hallmark of a strong inductive argument is even though you've got a very strong argument,	强烈的诱导性论点的特征是即使你有一个非常强烈的论点,
186	and if the sun has risen every single day in the history of the universe so far,	如果太阳在宇宙历史上的每一天都升起
187	I've no idea how old the universe is, but it's old, right?	我不知道宇宙有多古老,但它是旧的,对不对?
188	If the sun has risen every day in the history of the universe,	如果太阳在宇宙历史上每天都升起
189	then it's hugely likely that the sun is going to rise tomorrow, isn't it?	那么明天太阳会升起的可能性很大不是吗?
190	And then you say, but we can't be 100% certain, because who knows, the sun may explode tomorrow.	然后你说, 但我们不能百分百确定, 因为谁知道,明天太阳会爆炸。
191	Or maybe the law that ensures that the sun rises every morning actually has a bit of a dogleg in it.	或者也许确保每天早上太阳升起的法则里面有条狗腿
192	So it's saying, OK, what the law is, is every morning the sun will rise,	所以,它的意思是,好吧,什么是法律, 每天早晨,太阳会升起,
193	except on the 7th of October 2009, it's suddenly going to miss a day.	除了2009年10月7日,突然错过一天.
194	And from then on, it's only going to rise every other day, OK, for the rest of the history of time.	从那时起,它只会每隔一天升起,OK, 对于剩下的时间。
195	Do we know that that isn't what the law is?	我们知道这不是法律吗?
196	Do we know that the law that ensures that the sun has risen every morning in the history of the universe so far	我们是否知道,确保太阳每天早上升起宇宙历史至今
197	won't tomorrow miss a day?	明天不会错过一天吗?
198	Well, it makes it weaker, but it means that we haven't got certainty.	但它意味着我们没有把握
199	This could be true and this false.	这可能是真的,也可能是错的。
200	But it's a different type of argument.	然此论不同.
201	We mustn't think that because deductive arguments are certain and inductive arguments aren't,	我们不能认为因为推理论是肯定的推理论不是
202	that therefore inductive arguments are somehow inferior,	因此,诱导性的论点是劣等的,
203	because actually they're dealing with different things.	因为实际上他们正在处理不同的事情。
204	This is the sort of argument that science deals with, isn't it?	科学就是这样争论的不是吗?
205	You observe that nature has been like this all the times before,	你看,大自然一直像这样以前,
206	and then you extrapolate into the future to assume it's going to be like that in the future.	然后你推导到未来假设将来会是这样
207	So every daffodil you've ever seen in your life so far has been yellow.	所以到目前为止你所见过的水仙都是黄色的
208	You're going to assume that the next daffodil you see will be yellow.	你会假设你看到的下一个水仙是黄色的
209	There's another bad example, you see.	还有另一个坏例子,你看。
210	But you see what I mean, I hope.	但你明白我的意思,我希望。
211	Ah, because there's a...	因为有个...
212	Whoops, sorry, I'm going the wrong way.	抱歉,我走错路了
213	This is the argument, right?	这就是争论,对不对?
214	An argument is a set of sentences.	辩才即是一组句子.
215	There are three sentences in this argument.	此论有三句.
216	The argument claim that's being made by this sentence is that if this is true and this is true,	这个句子所提出的论点是,如果这是真的,这是真的,
217	then this will be true.	那么,这是真实的。
218	This will be true, okay?	这是真的,好吗?
219	And this one, the inductive argument,	而这一个,诱导性的论点,
220	is saying if this is true, this will be true, okay?	是说如果这是真的, 这是真的,好吗?
221	Now, in this case, we can say that there could be a counterexample to this.	现在,在这种情况下,我们可以说,可能有一个反例。
222	The counterexample might be that the sun explodes tomorrow,	反例可能是明天太阳会爆炸
223	or that the law of nature has had written into it from the history of time	或自然法则从历史中写进它
224	that it will change tomorrow of all days.	它将改变所有天的明天。
225	We know that this doesn't give us certainty,	我们知道这不能让我们确定
226	but it gives us a jolly good reason for thinking that this is true, doesn't it?	但它给了我们一个很好的理由认为这是真的,不是吗?
227	I mean, I could give you an inductive argument that goes like this.	我的意思是,我可以给你一个诱导性的论点这样下去。
228	In fact, let me give you one.	其实,让我给你一个。
229	Every time I've seen Marianne, she's been wearing earrings.	每次我见到玛丽安她都戴耳环
230	Therefore, next time I see Marianne, she'll be wearing earrings, okay?	因此,下一次我见到玛丽安, 她会穿耳环,好吗?
231	Now, is that a strong inductive argument?	这是很强的诱导性辩论吗?
232	No.	没有
233	Well, it's not very strong, is it?	不是很强吧?
234	I mean, the next time you see me, you might have come knocking on my door at 7 o'clock in the morning	我的意思是,下一次你看到我, 你可能会来敲我的门在早上7点
235	and I've just got up and I don't wear earrings in bed.	我刚刚起床,不在床上戴耳环
236	We know too much about the world, about people, about earrings and things like that	我们太了解世界,了解人,了解耳环之类的东西
237	to know that that's a good inductive argument.	要知道这是一个很好的诱导性论点。
238	Well, let's go back to this one and notice that here we're arguing from this, not to it.	好吧,让我们回到这一个并且注意到我们在这里争论从这个,而不是它。
239	This is a premise in our argument, not a conclusion.	这是我们辩论的前提,而不是结论。
240	Whereas if we're looking here...	而如果我们看这里...
241	Oh, now I'm going the wrong way the other way.	现在我走错路了
242	No, actually what I was just about to tell you there isn't going to work.	不,其实我正要告诉你的是不会有工作的。
243	How did we get to this?	我们怎么做到的?
244	We've seen the sunrise every single day.	我们每天都看到日出
245	We've seen lots of observations and therefore we naturally extrapolate to a generalisation like this.	我们看到了很多观测结果因此我们自然地推断出这样的概括
246	This is a different form of reasoning.	这是另一种推理形式。
247	This is inductive reasoning.	这是诱导推理。
248	And it's the same reasoning that causes us to say something like this.	同样的推理也促使我们这样说
249	But in this case, the same reasoning isn't as strong.	但在这种情况下,同样的推理并没有那么强烈.
250	Here's another one.	这里还有一个。
251	Who takes a lucky rabbit's foot into an exam if they ever go into an exam?	谁会把幸运的兔子的脚带进考试,如果他们曾经参加考试?
252	Who used to take a lucky rabbit's foot into an exam?	谁会把幸运的兔子的脚带进考试?
253	Who has a lucky red jumper or something like that?	谁有幸运的红色跳伞之类的?
254	We've all had the experience of something's really nice happening to us	我们都有过经历我们之间发生了一件好事
255	and we were wearing something or carrying something	我们穿着什么或携带什么
256	and we think maybe I'll wear that again and I'll be lucky again	и稱砛и穦Ω 礛и穦┋笲
257	because we extrapolate from what's happened in the past to what's going to happen in the future.	因为我们从过去发生的事情推断出将来会发生什么
258	I've lost you.	我已经失去了你。
259	I can see.	我看得出来
260	I'm looking at your faces and you've gone.	我看着你的脸,你走了。
261	Right.	对
262	The only thing you need to remember is that a deductive argument, you've got certainty.	你唯一需要记住的就是推理论,你有确定性。
263	Because if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.	因为如果前提是真的,结论必须是真实的.
264	In an inductive argument, you haven't got certainty.	在诱导性辩论中,你没有把握.
265	You've only got probability.	你只有概率。
266	This premise gives you probable reason to believe this.	这个前提让你有理由相信
267	If this premise is true, this conclusion is probably true.	如果这个前提是真的,这个结论很可能是真的.
268	But it's not certainly true.	但事实并非如此。
269	And if this premise is true, then this conclusion is not even probably true, is it?	如果这个前提是真的,那么这个结论甚至可能也不是真的,不是吗?
270	This is a very weak inductive argument.	这是一个非常微弱的诱导性论点。
271	This gives you some reason for believing this, but not very much.	这给了你一些理由相信这一点,但并不是很多。
272	Have a look at these.	看看这个。
273	I'm going to give you a couple of minutes to do them on your own	我给你几分钟时间自己做
274	so you really try and work this out for yourself.	所以,你真的尝试解决这一点自己。
275	Decide which of those are deductive arguments and which of those are inductive arguments.	决定其中哪些是推理性论点,哪些是推理性论点。
276	And then we'll have a look at them together.	然后我们一起看看
277	So the sun is coming...	所以太阳要来了...
278	Well, actually, let's do them together.	嗯,实际上,让我们一起做。
279	I think that's probably easier at this point.	我觉得现在可能比较容易
280	Let's have a look.	让我们来看看。
281	The sun is coming out, so the rain should stop soon.	阳气已出,故雨宜速止.
282	Which is the conclusion of that argument?	这一论点的结论是什么?
283	Oh, OK. Well, let's do it the canonical way, shall we, just so we've all got it.	哦,没事。好吧,让我们做它峡谷的方式,我们,让我们都得到了它。
284	Which is the conclusion of this argument?	这个论点的结论是什么?
285	The rain should stop soon.	雨很快就会停了
286	That's what we're claiming.	这就是我们所声称的。
287	And the reason we're giving for that claim is the sun is coming out.	我们之所以提出这个要求是因为太阳出来了
288	So the premise is the sun is coming out, therefore the rain should stop soon.	所以前提就是太阳要出来了因此雨应该很快停止
289	Now, does the truth of that premise make the truth of the conclusion certain?	现在,这个前提的真相是否使结论的真相确定?
290	No.	没有
291	You can't have more or less certain.	你不能有或多或少的确定。
292	Sorry.	对不起
293	More or less probable, but not more or less certain.	或多或少是可能的,但不能多或少地确定。
294	OK.	摆
295	So is it inductive or deductive?	那么,它是诱导还是推导?
296	Put up your hands if you think it's inductive.	如果觉得有诱导作用就把手举起来.
297	Yay!	赞!
298	You see, I knew you'd got it, really.	你看,我知道你会得到它,真的。
299	OK, good.	好吧,不错。
300	That's an inductive argument.	即是引论.
301	What about this one?	这个呢?
302	Let's do it the canonical way.	贡举志五种上.
303	What's the conclusion?	有何结论.
304	Right, I'm going to make you do the things that I make undergraduates or used to make undergraduates do.	好吧,我要让你做我做本科生或用来做本科生。
305	Notice there's... Can you make that a proper sentence?	请注意... 你能把这句话写成句子吗?
306	John won't be at the party.	约翰不会去派对的
307	That's right.	没错
308	It's obvious what the sentence should be, isn't it?	句子应该是什么是显而易见的,不是吗?
309	So OK, the conclusion is John won't be at the party and the premises are...	好吧,结论是约翰不会在派对上,而且...
310	Good.	不错
311	There are two premises here.	这里有两个地方
312	One is Jane is at the party and the other is if Jane is at the party, John won't be at the party.	一是简在党,二是简在党,约翰不会在党.
313	Notice that that's a complex sentence that's constituted of two sentences within the sentence.	注意,这是一个复杂的句子, 构成两句在句子内。
314	But you don't separate those two to make them two different premises	但你不分开那两个让他们两个不同的前提
315	because this sentence being asserted is if Jane is at the party, John won't be.	因为如果简在派对上,约翰就不会
316	That's the premise.	这就是前提。
317	Good.	不错
318	OK.	摆
319	So we've got an argument that goes if Jane is at the party, John won't be at the party.	所以,我们有一个争论,如果简在党,约翰不会在党。
320	Jane is at the party, therefore John won't be at the party.	Jane在派对上所以John不会在派对上
321	Is that deductive or inductive?	这是推理还是诱导?
322	Put up your hand if you think it's inductive.	举手若以为诱.
323	OK, put up your hand if you think it's deductive.	好吧,举起你的手,如果你认为它是扣除。
324	Well done.	干得不错
325	OK.	摆
326	So you are getting this.	所以,你得到这个。
327	OK, it's just sign up.	好吧,它只是注册。
328	The house is a mess, therefore Lucy must be at home.	房子一团糟,所以露西一定在家
329	What's the conclusion?	有何结论.
330	Just Lucy must be at home.	只有露西必须在家里。
331	The therefore just marks the conclusion rather than being the conclusion.	因此,这只是结论,而不是结论。
332	OK, Lucy must be at home.	好吧,露西必须在家里。
333	Premise the house is a mess.	预设殿堂为乱.
334	Inductive or deductive?	诱导还是推理?
335	Put up your hand if you think inductive.	举起你的手,如果你认为诱导。
336	Well done.	干得不错
337	Can you give me a counterexample to that argument?	你能给我一个反例吗?
338	Yes, that's right.	没错
339	OK.	摆
340	So the house is a mess, but Lucy isn't at home.	房子一团糟但露西不在家
341	You've had burglars instead.	你却有盗贼
342	Good.	不错
343	OK.	摆
344	Either he's in the bathroom or the bedroom.	他要么在浴室要么在卧室
345	He's not in the bathroom, so he must be in the bedroom.	他不在洗手间所以肯定在卧室里
346	Conclusion is obvious.	结论是显而易见的。
347	It must be in the bedroom.	一定是在卧室里
348	And the two premises, either he's in the bathroom or the bedroom,	还有两处房子,要么他在浴室要么在卧室
349	he's not in the bathroom.	他不在厕所里
350	OK. Deductive or inductive?	摆贬低还是诱导?
351	Deductive.	减者.
352	Well done.	干得不错
353	OK. Dog would have barked if it saw a stranger.	摆狗看到陌生人会叫的
354	It didn't bark, so it didn't see a stranger.	它没有吠叫,所以没有看到陌生人.
355	Deductive.	减者.
356	Good.	不错
357	No one in Paris understands me, so my French must be rotten	巴黎没有人能理解我所以我的法语一定很烂
358	or the Parisians are stupid.	或者说巴黎人很蠢
359	I got this from a book.	我从一本书上拿到的
360	Inductive.	摄受.
361	OK.	摆
362	It's difficult, that one, but it is inductive.	很难,那一个,但它是诱导性的。
363	You're quite right, because what's the conclusion?	你说得对,因为结论是什么?
364	That's right.	没错
365	It's actually a complex conclusion, isn't it?	这其实是一个复杂的结论,不是吗?
366	My French must be rotten or the Parisians are stupid.	我的法国人一定烂透了否则巴黎人就是傻子
367	And the premises, no one in Paris understands me.	巴黎没人能理解我
368	So it may be the case that if that's true, these are true.	因此,如果这是真的,这些是真实的。
369	But there are other reasons for nobody understanding me,	但还有别的理由没人理解我
370	aren't there, as well?	对不对?
371	OK. Good.	摆不错
372	So you have actually got it,	所以,你实际上得到了它,
373	even if we got tied up in a few knots there.	即使我们被绑在了几节里
374	No, I'm not going to say all that.	不我不会说这些的
375	Right.	对
376	Logicians study deduction by studying valid argument forms.	逻辑学家通过研究有效的论证表来研究推理.
377	Now, here it's very important to distinguish form from content.	现在,在这里,区分形式和内容是非常重要的.
378	Arguments are deductively valid in virtue of their forms	论据因其形式而具有扣减效力
379	rather than their contents.	而不是他们的内容。
380	Now, that's not true of all deduction,	现在,这不是真的所有扣减,
381	but it's true of most deduction.	但大多数推理都是如此
382	So let's have a look at what I mean here.	让我们来看看我在这里的意思。
383	All men are mortal.	一切众生皆是凡夫.
384	Socrates is a man.	苏格拉底是个男人
385	Therefore, Socrates is mortal.	因此,苏格拉底是凡人.
386	OK.	摆
387	All actions that produce the greatest happiness of the greatest number.	所有能带来最大幸福的动作
388	I got very bored writing it out.	我写出来很无聊
389	The greatest happiness of the greatest number.	最大数中最幸福.
390	All actions that produce the greatest happiness of the greatest number	所有创造最大幸福的动作
391	are right, morally right, that is.	说对了说对了
392	That action produced the greatest happiness of the greatest number.	这一行动产生了最大数量的幸福。
393	Therefore, that action was right.	因此,这一行动是正确的。
394	OK.	摆
395	Can you see that the form of those two arguments is exactly the same?	你可以看到这两种论点的形式是完全相同的吗?
396	Can you see that?	你看到了吗?
397	So the content of the two arguments is quite different.	因此两个论点的内容是相当不同的.
398	This is an argument about Socrates and mortality,	这是关于苏格拉底和死亡的争论,
399	and this is an argument about morality	这是关于道德的争论
400	and the greatest happiness of the greatest number.	以及最伟大的幸福
401	Completely different topics, completely different content,	完全不同的主题, 完全不同的内容,
402	but each of the arguments has the same form.	但每个论点都有相同的形式。
403	Can anyone try and write down the form?	谁能试着把表格写下来?
404	Tell me the form of that argument.	告诉我辩论的形式
405	The structure of it.	其结构.
406	Do you not know what I mean?	你不知道我的意思吗?
407	No.	没有
408	OK. Let's do it together.	摆一起来.
409	所有A's为B.
410	S is an A.	S是一个A。
411	Therefore, S is a B.	因此,S是一个B。
412	Did you get that?	你听到了吗?
413	所有A's为B.
414	So, A, let's do an interpretation here.	所以,A,让我们在这里做一个解释。
415	A equals, let's do it properly here.	等价的,让我们在这里做正确。
416	X is a man.	X是个男人
417	X is mortal.	X是个凡人
418	S is Socrates.	S是苏格拉底
419	And the form of this is all A's are B.	而这种形式都是A的就是B.
420	S is an A.	S是一个A。
421	Therefore, S is a B.	因此,S是一个B。
422	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
423	Let me do it again.	让我再来一次
424	Can you see on the side there?	你能看见那边吗?
425	So, if this is the interpretation,	所以,如果这是解释,
426	I've just changed the words for symbols here,	我刚刚换了符号
427	and the symbols are only letters.	而符号只是字母。
428	So, A of X says X is a man.	所以,A的X说X是一个男人。
429	X is mortal, is B.	X是凡人,是B,是B。
430	And S is Socrates.	S是苏格拉底
431	So, all A's are B.	所以,所有A's是B。
432	S is an A.	S是一个A。
433	Therefore, S is a B.	因此,S是一个B。
434	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
435	So, see if you can do that for the other argument.	所以,看看你能不能为另一个论点这样做。
436	What would we have to say that A is there?	我们该说什么是A?
437	Good.	不错
438	A is an action.	A是一种行动。
439	B,X很难
440	Go on.	继续
441	Produce, no, okay.	生产,不,好。
442	All men are mortal.	一切众生皆是凡夫.
443	All actions that produce the greatest happiness,	所有产生最大幸福的动作,
444	the greatest number are right.	人数最多是正确的。
445	Okay, so actually A isn't actions, is it?	好吧,所以实际上A不是行动,是吗?
446	It's actions that produce, no, not right actions,	行动产生,不,不是正确的行动,
447	actions that produce the greatest happiness,	创造最大幸福的行动,
448	the greatest number.	最伟大的数字。
449	So, all men are mortal.	因此,所有的人都是凡人.
450	And all actions that produce the greatest happiness,	所有产生最大幸福的动作,
451	the greatest number are right.	人数最多是正确的。
452	You with me?	你明白吗?
453	So, all A's, all men, are B's, mortal.	所以,所有的A's,所有的人, 是B's,凡人。
454	All A's, actions that produce the greatest happiness,	所有A,产生最大幸福的动作,
455	the greatest number, are right.	最伟大的数字,是正确的。
456	Okay, and then the next one,	好吧,然后下一个,
457	that action produced the greatest happiness,	行动产生了最大的幸福,
458	the greatest number.	最伟大的数字。
459	You've got Socrates here is a particular thing,	你带苏格拉底来这是一件特别的事
460	just as that action is a particular thing.	就像那个行动是一件特别的事情一样。
461	Okay?	好吗?
462	And you're saying that particular thing is a man,	而你说, 特殊的事情是一个男人,
463	i.e.	即说.
464	falls into this class here,	这里属于这个班级,
465	and therefore he falls into the other class too.	所以他也属于另一个阶级。
466	Okay?	好吗?
467	So, both those arguments have the form,	所以,这两个论点都有形式,
468	all A's are B, S is an A, therefore S is a B.	所有A是B,S是A,因此S是B.
469	Now, the point of this is just to get you	现在,这是重点只是让你
470	to distinguish form and content.	以区分形式和内容。
471	Can you see that an argument can have different forms	你可以看到一个争论可以有不同的形式
472	and yet the same content?	但内容是一样的吗?
473	Sorry, different contents and yet the same form.	抱歉,内容不同,但形式相同
474	Okay, so these are two arguments of exactly the same form,	好吧,这是两个完全相同的论点,
475	different contents.	不同的内容。
476	What's important about this is that logic is topic neutral.	重要的是逻辑是中性的。
477	Once you've learnt how to do logic,	一旦你学会了如何运用逻辑
478	it doesn't matter what you're doing it with or on,	无论你用什么做或继续做,
479	it's always the same.	总是一样
480	Logic is the same whether you're talking about	逻辑学和你说的一样
481	the colour of chairs, whether you're talking about biochemistry,	椅子的颜色, 不管你在谈论生物化学,
482	whether you're talking about the philosophy of time.	无论你说的是时间哲学
483	It doesn't matter what you're talking about.	无量无边.
484	If an argument is valid,	如果一个论点是有效的,
485	it'll be valid by virtue of its form,	因其形式而有效
486	whatever the topic is you're talking about.	不管你在说什么
487	So, logic is the ultimate transferable skill.	因此,逻辑是最终可转移的技能.
488	If you've learnt logic,	如果你学会了逻辑
489	you can do it with whatever you happen to be talking about,	你可以用你所说的一切来做
490	whatever it is you're interested in,	无论你感兴趣的是什么
491	whether it's art history or fashion.	无论是艺术史还是时尚
492	Right, okay.	对,好的。
493	Let's have a look at a few argument forms.	让我们来看看一些争论表。
494	Here's a valid argument form.	此处为有效论证形式.
495	若P,则Q.
496	P, therefore Q.	P,因此为Q.
497	What's P standing in for here?	P站在这里干什么?
498	What type of thing is it standing in for?	它站在那里是为了什么?
499	Can anyone tell me?	有人能告诉我吗?
500	Good, or a sentence, I was going to say,	好,或者一句话,我本来要说,
501	but a premise is even better.	但有一个前提甚至更好。
502	Yes, well done.	是的,干得不错。
503	So, this is one sentence.	所以,这是一句话。
504	What's this?	这是什么?
505	No.	没有
506	No, not even that.	不,甚至没有。
507	Oh, actually, that's a premise.	哦,其实,这是一个前提。
508	Actually, that's a premise.	事实上,这是一个前提。
509	That's only a sentence.	这只是一句。
510	Can you see why?	你明白为什么吗?
511	That's right.	没错
512	Okay, so if P, then Q is one premise,	好吧,所以如果P, 那么Q是一个前提,
513	P is the other premise,	P是另一个前提,
514	and Q is the conclusion.	和Q是结论。
515	So, all we've done there,	我们所做的一切
516	instead of thinking about actual sentences,	而不是考虑实际的句子,
517	we've just put in what are called sentence letters.	我们刚刚把所谓的句子字母。
518	Any letter will do, doesn't matter,	任何信件都行,无所谓
519	just so long as you get the form of the argument right.	只要你把辩论的形式弄对了
520	Can you think of an argument that fits that form?	你能想到一个适合这种形式的争论吗?
521	Okay, just think for yourself now	好,现在你自己想想
522	of an argument that fits that form.	符合这种形式的论点。
523	You could use one that we've already used.	你可以用我们用过的
524	You could use one to do with the colours	你可以用一个和颜色有关
525	of the chair in this room.	这个房间里的椅子。
526	Quite difficult, but see if you can think of one.	相当困难,但看看你能不能想到一个。
527	Go on, try it.	试试看
528	Give her a clap.	给她鼓掌
529	Well done.	干得不错
530	That's exactly right.	没错
531	Can anyone think of another one?	有人能想到另一个吗?
532	No, there's no all there.	不,没有所有的。
533	No, just if the impossible cannot happen,	不如果不可能发生的话
534	then, no, you're not quite getting the idea here.	那么,不,你并不完全得到这个想法。
535	Now, this will be happening to lots of you.	这会发生在你们很多人身上
536	This is not just you.	这不仅仅是你
537	The form is if sentence, then sentence,	形式是如果句子,然后句子,
538	sentence, therefore sentence.	因此,判决。
539	And these two have got to be the same sentence,	这两句话也一样
540	and these two have got to be the same sentence.	这两句话也一样
541	So, the form of this has got to be	所以,这个形式必须是
542	if P, then Q,	如果P,然后是Q,
543	P, therefore Q.	P,因此为Q.
544	Think of another one.	想想另一个
545	Think to yourselves first,	先想想你们自己
546	and then when you feel confident that you've got it,	然后当你觉得自信你得到了它,
547	put your hand up and we'll try.	把手举起来,我们试试
548	This is really doing logic.	这真的在做逻辑。
549	So, if you're finding it hard, that's right.	所以,如果你觉得很难,这是对的。
550	It's in the nature of the beast.	以兽性为体.
551	Are you?	是吗?
552	Well, sit down and think for yourself,	好吧,坐下来,自己想想,
553	and then try again.	然后再试一次
554	No, you've just said, oh, no, you didn't.	不,你刚才说, 哦,不,你没有。
555	No, it's, okay, go on, you say one.	不,这是,好吧,继续,你说一个。
556	No, that was an if P, and Q, wasn't it?	不,那是P,还有Q,不是吗?
557	And we're looking for an if P, then Q.	我们正在寻找一个如果P,然后Q。
558	These words that are left are the logical words,	剩下的这些词是逻辑词
559	and it's getting the logical words right,	它使逻辑词是正确的,
560	if, then, and, or, not, that's hugely important.	如果,那么,或者,不, 这是非常重要的。
561	Have you got one?	你有吗?
562	Good, okay.	不错,好吧。
563	If he gets a bus, then he's eco-friendly.	如果他得到一辆公交车,那么他是生态友好的.
564	He does get a bus, therefore he's eco-friendly.	他确实有公交车,所以他生态友好。
565	Good, well done, Paul.	做得好,保罗
566	Oh, something wrong with that.	哦,这是不对的。
567	What was wrong with it?	有什么不对吗?
568	Now, the sentences were great.	现在,判决是伟大的。
569	Say it again, though.	虽复说 it.
570	Okay, so P is, it is raining.	好吧,所以P是,这是下雨。
571	Okay, and Q is, I raised an umbrella.	好吧,而Q是,我举起伞。
572	Now, was P my umbrella is up?	现在,P是我的伞上了吗?
573	What was P?	P是谁?
574	It雨.
575	So what do you need there instead?	那你需要什么来着?
576	It is raining.	下着雨呢
577	Therefore, you're, do you see, what you were doing there	因此,你,你看到了, 你在那里做什么
578	is you were committing the fallacy	是你犯了错
579	of affirming the consequence.	肯定后果。
580	Very common fallacy.	非常常见的谬论.
581	We'll do fallacies next week, I think.	我想我们下周会做错事
582	So, but do you see, it has to be,	所以,但你看, 它必须是,
583	you have to have the letters in the right order,	你必须有字母的顺序正确,
584	because what you gave me initially wasn't a valid argument,	因为你最初给我的不是合理的论点
585	but a valid argument could easily be made from it	但可以很容易地从中得出一个有效的论据
586	just by transposing those.	只是通过转换这些。
587	Do you have another one?	你有另一个吗?
588	It's sunny, dog for a walk.	阳光灿烂,狗散步。
589	Therefore, I'll take my dog for a walk.	因此,我带我的狗散步。
590	Exactly, so P is, it is sunny.	没错,所以P是,它是阳光。
591	Q is, I'm taking my dog for a walk.	Q是,我要带我的狗散步。
592	And the argument is, if it's sunny,	而争论是,如果它是阳光,
593	then I'm taking my dog for a walk.	然后我带我的狗散步。
594	It is sunny, therefore I'm taking my dog for a walk.	阳光灿烂,所以我要带我的狗散步
595	Okay, now that has to be valid, doesn't it?	好吧,现在必须有效,不是吗?
596	Sorry, that has, if those premises are true,	对不起,如果那些房子是真的,
597	that conclusion has to be true,	这个结论必须是真的,
598	because any argument of this form must be a good argument.	因为任何这种形式的论点都必须是一个很好的论点。
599	It's deductively valid.	推算有效.
600	Anyone else want to try another one?	还有谁想再试一次吗?
601	Good, okay.	不错,好吧。
602	If the postman is striking, then we will have no letters.	如果邮递员出事了我们就不会有信了
603	The postman are striking, therefore we'll have no letters.	邮递员罢工了所以我们没有信
604	So P is, the postman is striking.	所以P是,邮差是惊人的。
605	No, not if, because the if, okay,	不,不是如果,因为如果,好吧,
606	the postman is striking, and Q is, we will have no letters.	邮递员正在罢工 Q是,我们将没有信件。
607	So if the postman is striking, then we'll have no letters.	所以,如果邮递员罢工, 那么我们就不会有信件。
608	The postman are striking, therefore we'll have no letters.	邮递员罢工了所以我们没有信
609	Good, okay, one more, and then we'll move on.	好,好,再来一个,然后我们继续
610	This is looking good.	这看起来不错
611	That's right, if he's breathing, then he's alive.	没错如果他有呼吸那他还活着
612	He is breathing, therefore he's alive.	他在呼吸,所以他还活着。
613	Okay, yeah, good.	好吧,是的,不错。
614	Okay, it's dead easy, isn't it, once you get the idea of it?	好吧,这很容易,不是吗, 一旦你得到的想法?
615	And here's the, sorry, say that again.	再说一遍,抱歉
616	Like the third parrot.	如第三鹦鹉.
617	Oh, the dead parrot.	死鹦鹉.
618	Yes, I'm sure we could make one there.	是的,我相信我们可以在那里做一个。
619	Here we are, if there are no chance factors in chess,	在这里,我们是, 如果没有机会因素在围棋,
620	then chess is a game of skill.	那么,围棋是一种技巧的游戏。
621	There are no chance factors in chess, therefore chess is a game of skill.	国际象棋没有机会因素,因此国际象棋是技能的游戏.
622	What's P here?	什么是P在这里?
623	Good, what's Q?	好,什么是Q吗?
624	Good, well done.	干得不错
625	Here's another argument.	这里还有另一个论点。
626	Okay, that was modus ponens, by the way.	好吧,那是临时小马,顺便说一句。
627	So you now have to do modus ponens.	所以,你现在必须做临时小马。
628	Here's modus tollens, the mode of denial.	这是临时收费拒绝的方式
629	If P, then Q, not Q, therefore not P.	如果P,那么Q,而不是Q,因此不是P.
630	Okay, if P, then Q, not Q, therefore not P.	好吧,如果P,那么Q,不是Q,所以不是P。
631	So this is saying, in effect, that P is sufficient for Q.	因此,这就是说,事实上,P足以满足Q.
632	Sorry, have I got it the wrong way around?	对不起,我搞错了吗?
633	No, I have got it the right way around.	不,我得到了它的正确的方式绕。
634	What we're saying here is that Q is necessary for P,	我们要说的是 Q对P来说是必要的
635	and so if Q isn't the case, then P isn't the case either.	所以,如果不是Q, 那么P也不是这种情况。
636	Well, let's have a look at the example, and then you can come up with your own.	好吧,让我们来看看这个例子, 然后你可以想出你自己的。
637	Actually, this example is wrong, because that shouldn't be in there.	实际上,这个例子是错误的,因为不应该有。
638	But let's do it.	却作么生.
639	If the dog didn't know the visitor well, the dog would have barked.	如果狗不熟悉访客,狗就会叫.
640	The dog didn't bark, therefore the dog did know the visitor.	狗没有叫,因此狗确实认识访客.
641	That shouldn't be in there.	那不应该在那里。
642	That's the one that I was saying I'd got wrong before we started.	这就是我说,我错了在我们开始之前。
643	So if you take that knot out, I won't draw on the screen there.	所以,如果你把结, 我不会画在屏幕上。
644	So on your handouts, make sure that you take that knot out on slide 16.	因此,在你的施舍, 确保你取出结在滑行16。
645	Write that down now.	写下来吧
646	I think it's 16, yep, because that's incorrect.	我想是16岁,因为那不对
647	But do you see how that argument is valid?	但是,你看到这个论点如何有效吗?
648	If it's true that if the dog didn't know the visitor well, the dog would have barked,	如果真的,如果狗不认识访客,狗会叫,
649	it's a good guide dog, guard dog, guard dog, not guide dog.	是一种很好的导盲犬,卫视犬,卫视犬,而不是导盲犬.
650	It didn't bark, therefore it must have known the visitor well, mustn't it?	它没有叫,所以它肯定很了解访客,不是吗?
651	Okay.	摆
652	So see if you can come up with something of that form now.	看看你能不能想出那种形式
653	I'll take the example out so it's not confusing you.	我会举个例子这样你就不会困惑了
654	Have you come up with one already?	你已经想好了吗?
655	Well done.	干得不错
656	Fantastic.	厉害
657	Absolutely right.	没错
658	So P is I have money.	所以我有钱
659	Q is I would be in the pub.	Q是我会在酒吧。
660	Is that right?	是吗?
661	I'm not in the pub, therefore I have no money.	我不在酒吧,所以我没有钱。
662	If I had money, so having money would be sufficient for you to be in the pub.	如果我有钱,所以有钱就足够你进酒吧了
663	Okay.	摆
664	But you're not in the pub, therefore you haven't got any money.	但你不在酒吧,所以你没有钱
665	Okay, anyone else wants to have a go?	好了,还有谁想试试吗?
666	Gentleman there.	先生们
667	You've got it, I think.	我想你已经得到了它,我想。
668	Does anyone else want to have a go or does everyone feel that they've got that?	还有谁想试试还是每个人都觉得自己有这个能力?
669	What was it?	这是什么?
670	Sorry, say it again.	对不起,再说一遍。
671	Okay, so P is the sun is out and Q is I'll take my dog for a walk.	好吧,所以P是太阳出来了,而Q是我要带我的狗散步。
672	Ah, I'm sorry.	啊,对不起。
673	Those of you who saw the error, that's quite right.	你们中谁看到错误, 这是相当正确的。
674	Okay, what should be here?	好吧,什么应该在这里?
675	I'm not taking my dog out for a walk, therefore the sun is not out.	我不会带我的狗出去散步, 因此太阳没有出来。
676	Yep, that's right.	没错
677	Good.	不错
678	Okay, try one more then as we got that, as I got that wrong.	好吧,再试一次,因为我们得到了, 因为我错了。
679	Yes, okay.	是的,还好。
680	No, we had a knot in the wrong place there, didn't we?	不,我们有一个结在错误的地方,不是吗?
681	How did it go again?	又怎么样?
682	If I'm hungry, then I won't concentrate.	如果我饿了,我就不会集中精神
683	и...
684	Right.	对
685	It would be...	这将是...
686	Hang on, we'll write this one down because there are knots in there that we need to get right because, as you see.	等一下,我们会写下这个因为里面有些结,我们需要得到正确的,因为,如你所见。
687	Okay, so P is I am hungry.	好吧,我饿了。
688	Q is I can't concentrate.	Q是我不能集中精力。
689	Okay, notice that we've changed Q.	好吧,请注意我们已经改变了Q。
690	Q is actually a negative here.	Q其实是负面的
691	That's where it's very easy to get tied up, so be very careful of this.	在那里很容易被绑起来,所以要非常小心.
692	Negatives immediately make things quite difficult.	消极因素立即使事情变得相当困难.
693	But never mind, we can do it.	但没关系,我们能做到的。
694	Okay, so Q is I can't concentrate.	好吧,所以Q是我不能集中精力。
695	Now, not Q, therefore, is I can concentrate.	现在,不是Q,因此,我可以集中精神。
696	Therefore, I'm not hungry.	因此,我不饿。
697	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
698	Do you see how that works?	你看到这怎么工作了吗?
699	So you had the right sentences.	所以你有正确的句子。
700	You were just not using the negatives in the right way.	你只是没有用底片的方式正确。
701	I've forgotten who said this, so I'm looking at all the wrong people.	我忘了是谁说的所以我看错人了
702	Okay, one more on this one because it's quite difficult.	好吧,再来一次,因为很困难
703	Paul.	保罗
704	Oh, actually, we've had you, Paul.	哦,实际上,我们已经得到了你,保罗。
705	So did we have you before?	我们以前有你吗?
706	Okay.	摆
707	Good.	不错
708	Okay, if I catch my train...	好吧,如果我赶上我的火车...
709	No, sorry, start again.	不,对不起,重新开始。
710	If I miss my train, I'll be late.	如果我错过我的火车,我会迟到。
711	I'm not late.	我没有迟到。
712	Therefore, I haven't missed my train.	因此,我没有错过我的火车。
713	You don't have to use the same words as long as you...	你不必用相同的词只要你...
714	Now, this is actually an important point.	这其实是一个重要的问题。
715	You don't have to use the same words as long as the words have the same meaning.	只要文字有相同的含义,就不必使用相同的词.
716	Or do you see what I mean?	或者你明白我的意思吗?
717	But when you're learning logic, it's a very good idea to use the same words	但是当你学习逻辑学时,使用相同的词句是一个非常好的主意.
718	because it cuts out one area of complication.	因为它切断了一个复杂区域。
719	Do you see that?	你看到了吗?
720	Why change your language when what it's going to do is confuse you?	为什么改变你的语言当它将要做的是混淆你?
721	Keep things as simple as possible.	尽量简单
722	This is quite hard enough without adding layers of complication in.	这已经够难了,没有增加层层的复杂。
723	Okay, good.	好吧,不错。
724	You did that well.	你表现的很好
725	So what have I got?	我有什么发现?
726	Oh, well, we've already tried that.	我们已经试过了
727	Good.	不错
728	Let's try another one.	我们再试试看
729	This is a disjunctive syllogism.	这是一种断开的语境
730	P or Q, not P, therefore Q.	P或Q,而非P,故为Q.
731	Okay?	好吗?
732	Have a go at that one.	试试那个
733	P or Q, not P, therefore Q.	P或Q,而非P,故为Q.
734	Okay?	好吗?
735	Oh, good.	哦,不错。
736	Look at you.	看着你。
737	Hands going up immediately now.	举起手来
738	Brilliant.	聪明
739	Okay?	好吗?
740	It's either raining or it's sunny.	要么下雨要么阳光灿烂
741	It's not raining, therefore it's sunny.	没有下雨,所以是阳光
742	Good.	不错
743	Well done.	干得不错
744	One at the back there.	一个在后面。
745	Good.	不错
746	Well done.	干得不错
747	Anyone else?	还有谁?
748	Good.	不错
749	Okay.	摆
750	I think you've got one.	我想你已经得到了一个。
751	Good.	不错
752	Well done.	干得不错
753	Okay.	摆
754	Notice that that works if you've got an exclusive or.	注意,如果你有独家或。
755	Because or is actually an ambiguous word in English.	因为或实际上在英语中是一个模棱两可的词.
756	It can mean either or, or it can mean not both.	可以是两者之一,也可以不是两者兼有。
757	And if this was either, this has got to be either or, hasn't it?	如果这是要么, 这必须是要么,或者,不是吗?
758	Because if it were not both, you couldn't get the conclusion, could you?	因为如果不是两者兼而有之,你就不能得出结论,对吧?
759	So that's where English can lead us astray a little bit because English is itself ambiguous.	因此,英语可以让我们有点迷路,因为英语本身是模糊的。
760	Okay.	摆
761	Here's my example.	举个例子
762	This is actually a Bertrand Russell example.	这其实是一个伯特兰·罗素的例子。
763	Either we hope for progress through improving morals or we hope for progress from improving intelligence.	我们要么希望通过改善道德来取得进展,要么希望通过改进情报来取得进展。
764	We can't hope for progress through improving morals, therefore we must hope for progress through improving intelligence.	我们不能希望通过提高道德来进步,因此我们必须希望通过提高智力来进步.
765	What this should tell you, incidentally, we've been looking at very simple ones, but actually these forms can be very complicated.	顺便说一句,我们一直在寻找非常简单的表格, 但实际上这些表格可能非常复杂。
766	One of the things I'm going to ask you to do this week while you're at home is when you read your newspaper,	这周你在家的时候我要请你做一件事就是看你的报纸
767	you listen to your television or argue with your friends in the pub or whatever you happen to do.	你听你的电视或者和你朋友在酒吧里争吵或者随便你做什么
768	I want you to try and identify arguments that come up whenever you hear the words if then and or not.	我要你试着找出每当你听到这些话时就会出现的论点
769	If and only if all these logical words, all is lovely logical words.	如果并且只有所有这些逻辑词,所有逻辑词都是可爱的.
770	Just you've got to be sensitized to them this week because I want you to hear you every time you hear this.	你本周必须对他们有敏锐感应因为我希望你每次听到这个都会听到你的声音
771	If then, I want you identifying the form of the argument in which you find it.	如果那样的话,我要你找出你发现的争论的形式。
772	Of course, it might not be in an argument, might it?	当然,它可能不是在争论,是吗?
773	It might be just a freestanding assertion.	这也许只是一个独立的断言。
774	But have a look, see if there is an argument there.	但看看,看看有没有争论。
775	Second sentence.	第二释.
776	Yes.	对
777	Each of the premises is an asserted sentence, a sentence that's being asserted, isn't he?	每一个前提都是一个断言的句子,一个被断言的句子,不是吗?
778	So Russell is saying, you know, it's true that either we hope for progress this way or we hope for it this way.	所以,罗素是说,你知道,这是真的, 我们要么希望这样进步, 要么我们希望这样。
779	OK, there's no other option.	好吧,没有其他选择。
780	We can't hope for it this way, he's asserting.	我们不能指望这样,他坚持。
781	Therefore, we must hope for it that way.	因此,我们必须希望这样做。
782	What's incorrect?	什么是错的?
783	Hang on, what's false here?	等等,这有什么错?
784	So is it the first premise?	所以这是第一个前提吗?
785	Let's start to use the language now.	现在开始使用语言。
786	Is it the first premise that's false or the second?	是第一个假设是假的还是第二个假设?
787	Well, improving intelligence isn't a sentence and it appears here and here.	改进情报不是一句句子它出现在这里和这里
788	So what?	那又怎样?
789	So is that the false premise or that one?	那么这是假前提还是假前提?
790	Right.	对
791	I think I'm going to put this on one side because A, we're not really looking at the truth of the premises and B, you've got to take the premises as they are here.	我想我要把这个放在一边,因为A,我们不真正地看房子的真相,B,你必须把房子当他们在这里。
792	This is what's being asserted.	这就是人们所主张的。
793	So we're not saying this is true or that this is true.	所以我们不是说这是真的,也不是说这是真的。
794	What we're saying is if this is true and this is true, then this must be true.	我们说的是,如果这是真的,这是真实的,那么这一定是真实的。
795	OK, these conditionals are very important.	好吧,这些条件是非常重要的。
796	Presupposition of what?	假设什么?
797	We'll get on to that later on.	我们稍后再谈
798	So what I want to get us now, just sensitizing us now to deduction and induction and to the form of an argument.	所以,我现在想要得到的, 只是让我们认识到,现在,我们扣除和诱导和辩论的形式。
799	That's what we need to get today.	这就是我们今天需要得到的。
800	OK, let's move on.	好吧,让我们继续前进。
801	Here's another one.	这里还有一个。
802	Leibniz law.	莱布尼兹法.
803	A为F.
804	A equals B.	一个等于B。
805	Therefore, B is F.	因此,B为F.
806	I'll give you my example of that because it's quite a difficult one.	我举个例子给你,因为那很困难
807	Jane is tall.	简曰高.
808	Jane is the bank manager.	Jane是银行经理
809	Therefore, the bank manager is tall.	因此,银行经理很高。
810	If these are true, is that true?	如果这些是真的,那是真的吗?
811	Has to be, doesn't it?	一定是,不是吗?
812	Can't be anything else.	不能是别的东西。
813	Go on.	继续
814	Think of a couple of examples of that one.	想想这个例子
815	Go for it.	来啊
816	No, I don't think it's going to work.	不,我不认为它会工作。
817	Why is that not going to work?	为什么这样不行?
818	Let's see.	让我看看。
819	Why is this not going to work?	为什么这样不行?
820	Well, dog's bark doesn't have the form A is F.	狗的树皮没有A是F
821	The chair is blue.	椅子是蓝色的。
822	Marianne is tall.	玛丽安很高
823	The board duster is lost, et cetera.	板尘器失落等.
824	Not dog.	不是狗,不是狗,不是狗,是狗,是狗,是狗,是狗,是狗,是狗
825	You could say the dog is barking.	你可以说狗在叫
826	But dog's bark is saying of one class of things that they fit another class of things.	但狗的树皮在说一种类型的东西, 它们适合另一种类型的东西。
827	And that's not the form of that sentence, is it?	这不是那个句子的形式,是吗?
828	Go on.	继续
829	Not quite.	没有
830	What we've got here, this is a very interesting ambiguity here.	我们这里有一个非常有趣的模糊之处。
831	Is is a very slippery word in English.	英文词很滑
832	Is you can have the is of predication and the is of identity.	你可以有预言和身份。
833	And your attempted argument there.	还有你试图争吵的事
834	And don't worry about this at all.	不用担心这件事
835	This is a perfectly reasonable mistake to make.	这是完全合理的错误。
836	You equivocated between these two is's.	你平息了这两件事
837	So you said this chair is blue.	你说这椅子是蓝色的
838	Is that right?	是吗?
839	Right.	对
840	Then you said this chair is comfortable.	你说这把椅子很舒服
841	OK.	摆
842	Now this.	现在这个。
843	Well, actually, those are both is's of predication, aren't they?	其实,这都是预言,不是吗?
844	Whereas what we're looking for here is an is of identity, isn't it?	我们要找的是身份,不是吗?
845	A is B is the very same thing as B.	A是B 和B是一样的
846	So here we've got a predication, haven't we?	所以这里我们有一个预兆,不是吗?
847	A为F.
848	A has a certain property.	A有一定财产.
849	And here we have and this thing A is the same thing as this thing B.	我们这里有A和B一样
850	Therefore, B is F.	因此,B为F.
851	Do you see how that has to be true?	你明白这是怎么一回事吗?
852	This is a it's a law of logic, this one, isn't it?	这是逻辑定律,不是吗?
853	This is Leibniz law.	这是莱布尼兹法。
854	It is a law of logic.	这是逻辑法则。
855	If A is F, if Marianne is tall, I'm just giving you the same example.	如果A是F,如果Marianne是高的, 我只是给你一个同样的例子。
856	So let me give it to you.	所以,让我给你。
857	If Jane is tall and Jane is the bank manager, here's an is of predication.	如果简是高的,简是银行经理,这是个预言。
858	So we're predicating tallness of Jane, aren't we?	所以,我们预示高的简,不是吗?
859	You with me?	你明白吗?
860	And here we've got the is of identity, haven't we?	在这里,我们得到了身份,不是吗?
861	Jane is the bank manager.	Jane是银行经理
862	OK, if that's true and that's true, that has to be true, doesn't it?	好吧,如果这是真的,这是真的, 这必须是真实的,不是吗?
863	Because the bank manager is Jane, isn't she?	因为银行经理是Jane 对吧?
864	Yes, that's exactly it.	是的,就是这样。
865	That's what we're doing.	这就是我们在做什么。
866	We're looking at examples of deductively valid arguments, arguments that are valid by virtue of their form.	我们研究的是推理有效的论证的例子,这些论证因其形式而有效.
867	OK, good.	好吧,不错。
868	One last one, I think.	我想还有最后一个
869	Here's a syllogism.	此处作毗卢遮那.
870	Now, this should be easy.	这应该很简单
871	All F's are G.	所有的F's是G。
872	A is an F.	A是一个F。
873	Therefore, A is G.	因此,A为G.
874	All Fords are cars.	一切福德为车.
875	OK.	摆
876	A is a Ford.	A是一个福特。
877	Therefore, A is a car.	因此,A是一种汽车。
878	Yeah, well done.	是啊,干得不错。
879	That'll do.	这样就行了
880	Anyone else want to give one more example and we'll move on?	还有谁想再举个例子,我们继续前进?
881	Good.	不错
882	I see where you're getting to.	我明白你们要做什么了
883	Yeah, the grammar got a bit mixed up, but yes.	是的,语法有点乱,但是是的。
884	OK.	摆
885	So all my clothes are wet.	所以我的衣服都湿了
886	That pair of jeans is one of my clothes, sort of.	那双牛仔裤是我的衣服
887	Therefore, it is wet.	因此,这是湿的。
888	I see where you're coming from.	悉从何处来.
889	OK.	摆
890	You've got one.	你有一个。
891	OK, go on.	好吧,继续。
892	All miracles are impossible.	所有奇迹都不可能
893	Resurrection is a miracle.	复活是一个奇迹。
894	OK.	摆
895	It works, doesn't it?	它的工作,不是吗?
896	Well done.	干得不错
897	Well, you knew you would get there somewhere.	嗯,你知道你会到达的地方。
898	Incidentally, let me just give you a logical problem with that just because I think you	顺便说一句让我给你一个逻辑问题因为我觉得你
899	might enjoy it.	可能会很享受
900	You said the resurrection is a miracle.	你说复活是奇迹
901	Therefore, the resurrection is impossible.	因此,复活是不可能的。
902	There's something very logically fishy about true negative existential sentences, isn't	真实的负面存在性句子是有道理的
903	there?	那边?
904	If we say Pegasus doesn't exist, aren't we picking out something by the word Pegasus	如果我们说"飞马"不存在, 难道我们不是用"飞马"这个词来挑东西吗?
905	in order to say of it that it doesn't exist?	为了说它不存在?
906	In which case, how can a negative existential be true?	在这种情况下,消极的存在怎么可能是真的?
907	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
908	Hamlet doesn't exist.	哈姆雷特不存在。
909	You're picking out something, Hamlet, in order to say of him that he doesn't exist.	哈姆雷特,你挑出一些东西是为了说他不存在
910	Well, how can you do that?	那你怎么能这么做?
911	You shouldn't be able to do that.	你不应该做到这一点。
912	I'll just leave you with a little conundrum because that's philosophical logic.	我会给你留下一个小难题因为那是哲学逻辑。
913	And we're not doing that here.	而我们不这样做在这里。
914	We're doing symbolic logic here.	我们正在做象征性的逻辑。
915	So now you know of two different types of logic.	现在你知道两种不同的逻辑。
916	OK.	摆
917	There's the canonical example for that one.	其有可证.
918	All men are mortal.	一切众生皆是凡夫.
919	Now, I said that some arguments are deductively valid, but not in virtue of their form.	现在,我说,一些论点在推论上是有效的,但就其形式而言并非如此。
920	Here are just a couple that are valid in virtue of their content, apparently.	这里只有一对夫妇,显然,他们的内容是有效的。
921	Deontic logic.	定律逻辑.
922	Now, this is cutting edge stuff.	现在,这是尖端的东西。
923	We know very little about deontic logic.	我们对道德逻辑知之甚少。
924	Deontic logic is the logic of morality.	定律逻辑是道德的逻辑.
925	OK.	摆
926	What we're trying to look at is the area of discourse in which we talk about morality	我们想研究的是讨论道德的话题
927	and say, how does it work logically?	并说,它是如何运作的逻辑?
928	How can we get a valid argument form from talk of morality?	我们怎样才能从道德的角度得到一个有效的论证表?
929	Now, look at this argument.	现在,看看这个争论。
930	Lying is wrong.	说谎是错误的。
931	Therefore, we shouldn't lie.	因此,我们不应该撒谎。
932	Now, that looks like a deductively valid argument, doesn't it?	现在,这看起来像一个推理有效的论据,不是吗?
933	In other words, if that's true, surely this must be true as well.	换句话说,如果这是真的,这肯定也是事实。
934	But if so, it's not true in virtue of its form.	但如是,则其形体不实.
935	It's true in virtue of its.	以其功德为真.
936	Well, could you say lying is wrong?	你能说撒谎是错的吗?
937	But I'm going to lie.	但我要说谎。
938	Well, we all know that you could lie.	我们都知道你会撒谎
939	But if you truly believe that lying is wrong, you're also going to believe you shouldn't lie.	但如果你真的相信说谎是错的你也会相信你不该说谎
940	Now, that doesn't mean you won't lie, but you'll feel guilty.	这并不意味着你不会撒谎但你会感到内疚
941	Madam, that's just what I said.	夫人我就是这么说的
942	I said, if you believe lying is wrong, then you're going to believe you shouldn't lie, aren't you?	我说,如果你相信说谎是错的, 那你会相信你不应该撒谎,不是吗?
943	Do you think you could possibly really believe that lying is wrong and yet not believe that you shouldn't lie?	你认为你可能真的相信说谎是错误的却不相信你不应该撒谎吗?
944	Well, I think that if you find it OK, if you lie, either you're going to feel shame,	好吧,我想如果你发现它好, 如果你撒谎, 要么你会觉得羞愧,
945	which manifests your belief that lying, you do think lying is wrong,	这表明你确信说谎是错的,
946	or you don't going to feel any shame at all, which manifests the fact that you don't believe that lying is always and everywhere wrong.	或者你根本不觉得羞耻这说明你不相信说谎是错的
947	Oh, don't get me on that.	哦,别这样
948	I'm not going to follow that one up at all.	我绝对不会跟随他
949	Oh, it's very important.	这很重要
950	Yes, but we're not.	是的,但我们不是。
951	But actually, we can safely leave it on one side here.	但实际上,我们可以安全地把它放在一边。
952	If you're a Kantian, you think that this entails that.	如果你是康德人,你认为这包含着这一点。
953	Incidentally, you might want to put another premise in here.	顺便说一句,你可能想在这里放另一个前提。
954	You might want to say we shouldn't do things that are wrong.	你也许想说我们不该做错事
955	Did someone want to do that?	有人想这样做吗?
956	OK.	摆
957	Kant would say if you did that, you're manifesting the facts that you think that you could believe that something's wrong without believing you shouldn't do it.	康德会说,如果你这样做, 你揭示的事实,你认为你可以相信某件事是错误的,而不相信你不应该这样做。
958	And that just shows you don't understand what wrongness is.	这说明你不明白什么是错的
959	To Kant, to have the proper moral concept, which is that lying is wrong or something like that,	对康德来说, 要有正确的道德概念, 即说谎是错的或类似的东西,
960	you cannot believe that something is wrong without also believing you shouldn't do it.	你不能相信事情是错的不相信你不应该这样做。
961	So it doesn't mean you won't do it, because we all know that we do things we believe to be wrong.	所以这并不意味着你不会这样做,因为我们都知道我们做我们认为是错误的事情。
962	But your belief that it's wrong will manifest itself as guilt.	但你相信这是错的就会表现为内疚
963	And if it doesn't, it manifests the fact you don't believe the first thing that lying is wrong.	如果它不这样做,它表明你不相信第一件事是错的。
964	So anyway, we're not going to get into morality.	所以,无论如何,我们不会进入道德。
965	I just wanted to say there is a logic, a type of logic called deontic logic.	我只是想说,有一个逻辑, 一种叫做非自主逻辑的逻辑。
966	And it looks at that sort of inference.	它看着这种推论。
967	And notice that we can't give you a form for that.	注意,我们不能给你一个表格。
968	That's the very meaning of the word wrong.	这就是错误这个词的意义所在。
969	There's something very special about the meaning of the word wrong, logically.	这个词的意义很特殊逻辑上
970	Here's another one, modal logic.	这里还有一个,模式逻辑。
971	Modal logic is the logic of necessity and possibility.	模式逻辑是必要性和可能性的逻辑.
972	It's necessarily the case that there are no square circles.	必然无方圆.
973	In other words, there's no possible world in which there's a square circle.	换句话说,没有可能的世界有一个方圆.
974	If it's square, it's not circular and so on.	如是方性不圆等.
975	Therefore, it's not possible that there are square circles.	因此,不可能有方圆.
976	So if P is necessarily true, then not P is not possible.	因此,如果P必然是真实的,那么P是不可能的.
977	Can you hear that?	你能听到吗?
978	Your capacity for reason would follow that quite quickly.	你的理性能力会很快跟上
979	If A is necessary, then not A is not possible.	如果需要A,则不可能是A。
980	Got to be the case, hasn't it?	一定是这样不是吗?
981	So again, we have a deductively valid argument, but it's not deductively valid at least.	再说一遍,我们有一个推理有效的论点, 但至少它不是推理有效。
982	Actually, we're a lot further on with modal logic than we are in deontic logic.	实际上,我们比自命不凡的逻辑更进一步。
983	We can do quite a lot with modal logic these days.	这些天我们可以用模式逻辑做很多事情。
984	Here's a bit of temporal logic for you.	给你一点时间逻辑
985	It's raining today, therefore tomorrow it will have been raining yesterday.	今天下雨了,所以明天昨天就会下雨了
986	Is that true?	是吗?
987	If that's true, then that must be true, mustn't it?	如果这是真的,那那一定是真的,不是吗?
988	Couldn't not.	没办法。
989	That's because of temporal logic, the way the logic of time works.	这是因为时间逻辑,时间逻辑的作用方式.
990	Let's move on.	让我们继续前进。
991	We're a bit short of time here.	我们的时间有点短
992	We'll move on to inductive arguments.	我们继续开导论
993	Now, inductive arguments, remember, what's the hallmark of an inductive argument?	现在,引证论,记住,引证论的特征是什么?
994	It's if the premises are true, the conclusion might be true, probably is true.	如果馆舍是真实的,结论可能是真实的,可能是真实的.
995	That's right.	没错
996	So the premises give us reason for believing the conclusion, but not in the conclusion.	因此,这些前提让我们有理由相信结论,但不能相信结论。
997	in this case, certainty.	在这种情况下,确定性。
998	They don't give us conclusive reason	他们不给我们确凿的理由
999	for bringing in the conclusion.	给结论。
1000	And that's because inductive arguments rely	那是因为诱导性的论点
1001	on the assumption of the uniformity of nature.	假设自然的统一。
1002	That's what Hume called it, David Hume.	这就是休姆的称呼,大卫休姆.
1003	The idea that the future will be like the past.	未来如过去之念.
1004	So if we've seen the sunrise every day	所以如果我们每天都看到日出
1005	in the history of the universe,	在宇宙历史上,
1006	we expect it to rise tomorrow.	我们期望它明天会升起。
1007	If every time we've come here	如果我们每次来这里
1008	for Marianne's lecture on Monday at two o'clock	为玛丽安星期一下午两点的讲座
1009	and Marianne's been lecturing at two o'clock,	玛丽安在两点钟方向讲课
1010	we'll come on, we'll carry on doing that.	我们继续做下去
1011	And if we come on the seventh week,	如果我们在第七个星期来,
1012	we'll be disappointed, sadly, okay?	很遗憾,我们会失望的,好吗?
1013	But it was quite a good reason for believing	但这是个好理由相信
1014	that Marianne would be lecturing on Monday at two,	玛丽安会在星期一2点上课
1015	that she has been lecturing at two every Monday	她每周一两次上课
1016	for the last six weeks, but it's not conclusive and so on.	过去六个星期, 但它不是决定性的等等。
1017	So we are, one of the biggest problems of philosophy	所以我们是哲学的最大问题之一
1018	in fact is how do we justify,	事实上,我们如何证明,
1019	can we justify this assumption,	我们可以证明这个假设,
1020	the assumption that the future is going to be like the past?	假设未来会像过去一样?
1021	Why should we think that the future has been like the past?	我们为什么要认为未来就像过去一样?
1022	Can anyone give me a reason?	有人能给我个理由吗?
1023	Exactly, because it has always been the case	没错,因为一直都是这样
1024	that the future has been like the past in the past.	未来就像过去一样
1025	So that's a circular, yes, exactly.	所以,这是一个循环,是的,准确的。
1026	Every time you try and justify the belief	每次你试图证明信仰
1027	that the future is going to be like the past,	未来将会像过去一样
1028	you'll find yourself arguing in a circle.	你会发现自己在一个圈子里争论。
1029	The only reason we think that that works	唯一的理由,我们认为这工作
1030	is because it always has worked in the past,	因为它过去一直有效,
1031	therefore we assume it will work that way in the future.	因此,我们假定,它将在今后这样做。
1032	But human beings just cannot not argue like that.	但人类不能这样争论。
1033	It's very interesting, I was playing with my cat	很有趣,我和我的猫玩
1034	the other day and I noticed that it doesn't go in	那天我注意到它没进
1035	for inductive reasoning.	用于诱导推理.
1036	If you do that with a cat,	如果你用猫做,
1037	if you do it with a human being,	如果你和一个人在一起
1038	the human being will keep going	人类会继续前进
1039	and expect you to keep going, but the cat doesn't.	并期望你继续走, 但猫没有。
1040	If you stop it, it stops, you don't catch it just slightly.	如果你阻止它,它停止了,你不会只是稍稍抓住它。
1041	It was interesting.	这很有趣。
1042	Anyway, that's what inductive arguments rely on.	总之,这就是诱导性论点所依赖的.
1043	Okay, tell me why this one.	好吧,告诉我为什么这个。
1044	Tell me what it is we're assuming.	告诉我我们在假设什么
1045	Actually, this is a silly question.	实际上,这是一个愚蠢的问题。
1046	In fact, I don't like this question, I'm going to skip it.	事实上,我不喜欢这个问题,我要跳过它。
1047	You can see why the assumption here is that	你明白为什么这里的假设是
1048	because the sun has always done this,	因为太阳总是这样
1049	it'll always continue doing that in the future.	它会一直这样做在未来。
1050	And the assumption here is that because in your experience,	这里的假设是因为你的经验,
1051	Marianne's always done this,	玛丽安总是这样
1052	in the future Marianne will always do this.	在未来,玛丽安将永远这样做。
1053	But our background knowledge comes in to say	但我们的背景知识是说
1054	whether you think it's a strong argument or a weak argument.	不管是强辩还是弱辩
1055	And I think you'll see that given what we know about physics,	我想你会看到,鉴于我们对物理的了解,
1056	about astronomy, about the laws of nature, et cetera,	关于天文学, 关于自然规律,等等,
1057	that is a strong argument.	这是一个有力的论点。
1058	Given what we know about people and what they wear,	鉴于我们了解的人和他们穿什么
1059	that's a weak argument.	这是一个弱辩。
1060	But both of them rely on the assumption	但他们都依靠这个假设
1061	of the principle of the uniformity of nature.	原则。
1062	And there are sub-categories	还有亚类
1063	within the category of inductive arguments.	属于诱导性论据类别。
1064	Here's one, an argument from analogy.	这里有一个,一个从类比的论据。
1065	A是像B,A是F,因此B是F.
1066	Okay, A is like B.	好吧,A就像B一样。
1067	And notice these smaller lowercase letters	注意这些小写字母
1068	stand in for particular things,	站在特定的东西,
1069	whereas letters like this stand in for either properties	而这样的字母代表两个属性
1070	or sometimes sentences,	或有时判决,
1071	but I tend to use P, Q, R for sentences and A for...	但我倾向于用P,Q,R来判决和A来...
1072	Oh, actually, that should be smaller case.	哦,实际上,那应该是较小的情况。
1073	Now I've started explaining it.	现在我开始解释
1074	That should be smaller case.	这应该比较小。
1075	Ah, scrub that.	擦干净
1076	Okay, A is like B, A is F, therefore B is F.	好吧,A是像B,A是F,所以B是F。
1077	You see how that works?	看见了吗?
1078	And here's an example.	这里有一个例子。
1079	The universe is like a pocket watch.	宇宙犹如袖表.
1080	A pocket watch has a designer,	一个袖珍表有一个设计师,
1081	therefore the universe has a designer.	因此,宇宙有一个设计师。
1082	You'll be familiar with that Pascal's...	你会熟悉帕斯卡的...
1083	No, it's not Pascal's, what is it?	不,这不是帕斯卡的,是什么?
1084	Paley, thank you.	佩莉,谢谢你
1085	So the universe is like a pocket watch.	所以宇宙就像个袖珍表
1086	A is the universe, B is a pocket watch,	A是宇宙,B是一个袖珍表,
1087	A为F.
1088	I've got this the wrong way around, haven't I?	我走错路了不是吗?
1089	Here's your homework.	这是你的功课
1090	Take that argument and put it	说吧,说吧
1091	into proper canonical logical form.	以适当的逻辑形式。
1092	Come back and tell me where I've got that wrong	回来告诉我哪里错了
1093	because I've got several quite interesting	因为我有几个很有趣的
1094	little errors in there.	小错误在那里。
1095	Some of them are just in the logic that I'm using	有些只是我用在逻辑上
1096	and some of them I've just transposed various things.	还有一些我刚转写了各种东西
1097	It should be easy for you to see where I've gone wrong.	应该很容易让你看到我错了地方
1098	Do it.	做到这一点。
1099	And if you want to come and check that with me next week,	如果你想下周来我这里看看
1100	I'm very happy to have a look at it.	我很高兴能看看
1101	Okay, do you want to come up	好吧,你想上来
1102	with your own argument from analogy?	用你自己的论据来比喻?
1103	Got time for one or two, perhaps.	也许还有一两个时间
1104	Hang on, there's someone over here	等等,这里有人
1105	who hasn't had a chance so far.	他还没有机会
1106	Yes, okay, that would do.	是的,好吧,这样就行了。
1107	One of your premises isn't true.	你的一个地方不是真的
1108	Well, actually, no.	其实没有
1109	Yes, one of your...	是的,一个你的...
1110	Well, I suppose the universe is like a cabbage, isn't it?	我想宇宙就像小白菜对吧?
1111	I don't know, roughly so, shape-wise.	我不知道,大概是这样,形状。
1112	Okay, well, that would work, yep.	好吧,那会工作,是啊。
1113	One more.	再来一次
1114	Sorry, say that again.	对不起,再说一遍。
1115	Trish is like Sylvia.	崔西就像西尔维娅
1116	Good, yep, absolutely, that'll do.	好的,是的,绝对的,这就可以了。
1117	Good, we've got that.	很好,我们得到了。
1118	Let's have a look at another inductive argument.	让我们来看看另一个诱导性的论点。
1119	Can you see how that's inductive, by the way?	顺便说一句,你看到这有多诱人吗?
1120	Why does that depend on the principle	为什么这取决于原则
1121	of the uniformity of nature?	自然的统一性?
1122	Well, it's again, we're assuming if one thing	再说一遍我们假设如果有一件事
1123	is like another in some ways,	在某些方面就像另一个
1124	then it'll be like another in other ways.	然后它会像另一种方式。
1125	So we're assuming the uniformity of nature, aren't we?	所以我们假设大自然是统一的,不是吗?
1126	So if it's like that in one way,	所以如果从某种意义上来说是这样的话
1127	it'll be like that in another way as well.	也会是那样的
1128	Here's another argument, an argument from authority.	这里还有另一个论点,来自权威的论点.
1129	Einstein is a brilliant physicist.	爱因斯坦是一个杰出的物理学家。
1130	Einstein says relativism is true,	爱因斯坦说相对主义是真的
1131	therefore relativism is true.	因此,相对论是正确的。
1132	Of course, we could put in a different thing here.	当然,我们可以把不同的东西在这里。
1133	Einstein says pacifism is the right creed,	爱因斯坦说和平主义是正确的信念,
1134	therefore pacifism is the right creed.	因此和平主义是正确的信条。
1135	What have we done there?	我们在那里做了什么?
1136	We've changed a good argument to a bad argument.	我们把好争论改成坏争论
1137	Why is one good and one bad?	为什么一个好一个坏?
1138	Because he is an authority on physics, that's right,	因为他是物理学权威
1139	and he isn't an authority on politics.	他不是一个政治权威
1140	So, but we'll be looking at good and bad arguments	所以,但是我们会看好和坏的争论
1141	from now on after next week.	从现在开始,下周之后。
1142	Okay, causal arguments.	好吧,因果关系。
1143	We looked at causal arguments briefly last week.	我们上周简要地研究了因果关系。
1144	Every time an A occurs, a B occurs,	每次发生A,B,
1145	therefore A's cause B.	因此,A的事业B。
1146	Now, we have a huge tendency,	现在,我们有一个巨大的趋势,
1147	and in fact, that tendency was manifested here last week	事实上,上星期这里就出现了这种趋势
1148	in this very room, wasn't it,	在这个房间里,不是吗,
1149	where we assumed that where there's a correlation,	在那里,我们假设在有关联,
1150	there's also a causal relation.	还有因果关系
1151	Well, we know that that's not true, is it?	我们知道那不是真的对吧?
1152	We know that there can be correlations	我们知道可能存在关联
1153	without causal relations,	没有因果关系,
1154	but even so, our evidence for causation	但即便如此,我们的证据因果关系
1155	tends to rest on a correlation.	倾向于依靠一种关联。
1156	So if every time an A occurs, a B occurs,	所以,如果每次发生A, 一个B,
1157	we'll tend to think that A's cause B's.	我们会倾向于认为A的事业B的。
1158	So we argue from observation of a correlation	因此,我们争论从观察一个关联
1159	to an assertion about a causal relation.	对因果关系的断言。
1160	And just to say quickly that causal arguments	并只是快速说, 因果关系的论点
1161	can be deductive or inductive	可以是扣减性或诱导性
1162	depending on whether we're arguing	取决于我们是否在争论
1163	from a causal claim or to one.	从因果关系索赔或从因果关系索赔到因果关系索赔。
1164	So A's cause B, there was an A,	所以A的事业B, 有一个A,
1165	therefore there will be a B.	因此,将有一个B。
1166	Every time, every observed A has been followed by a B,	每一次,每个观测到的A 被后面有一个B,
1167	therefore A's cause B.	因此,A的事业B。
1168	Which of these is deductive?	其中哪一种是可扣除的?
1169	Left or right?	左边还是右边?
1170	My left, that's left.	我的左边,那是左边。
1171	Deductive, inductive, yep, that's right.	减,引也,是也,对也.
1172	We're taking cause here.	我们在这里有原因。
1173	What we're saying, we're arguing to a causal claim,	我们所说的,我们是在争论一个因果关系,
1174	aren't we, from observations of correlation?	难道我们不, 从相关观察?
1175	And here, we're arguing from a causal claim,	在这里,我们争论从因果关系,
1176	indeed the conclusion of that one,	那一个结论,
1177	to a particular claim, okay?	对一个特定的主张,好吗?
1178	So that's deductive, well you should be able to do this.	所以这是减员的,你应该可以做到这一点。
1179	Okay, that's deductive because if that's true,	好吧,这是扣除因为如果这是真的,
1180	if that's true and that's true,	如果这是真的,这是真的,
1181	then that must be true, okay?	那一定是事实,好吗?
1182	This might be true and yet this be false.	这也许是真的,但这是假的。
1183	But even so, that is reason to believe that, isn't it?	但即便如此,也有理由相信,不是吗?
1184	Okay, it's just not conclusive reason.	好吧,这不是决定性的原因。
1185	Whereas these are conclusive reason to believe that.	虽然这些是令人信服的理由相信这一点。
1186	Right.	对
1187	Your task for the week ahead.	接下来一周的任务
1188	See if you can find in your newspaper, magazine,	看看能不能在你报纸,杂志上找到
1189	or a book, or wherever,	或书,或任何地方,
1190	I've said four, but that's entirely arbitrary.	我说了四个,但这完全是任意的。
1191	Just see if you can find some arguments	看看能不能找到一些参数
1192	that fit the patterns that we've been looking at today.	符合我们今天所看到的规律
1193	And you might also notice in your own behavior,	你也许也会注意到自己的行为
1194	as you're talking to people,	当你在跟别人说话
1195	you'll find yourself, and I'm hoping to sensitize you	你会发现自己, 而我希望让你敏感
1196	{\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}这些逻辑词不能过去
1197	without your thinking, ooh.	没有你的想法,哦。
1198	So when you find yourself saying if, then,	所以当你发现自己说,如果,那么,
1199	that's a particularly good one, if, then,	这是一个特别好,如果,
1200	or therefore, or since, or things like that,	因此,或从,或诸如此类的事情,
1201	catch yourself and try and work out what your argument was.	抓住自己试着找出你的论点
1202	Now some of your arguments are going to be	现在你们的一些争论将会是
1203	far too complicated to work out like that.	实在太复杂了,不能这样工作
1204	At the moment, stick to simple ones.	目前,要坚持简单一点.
1205	See if you can find yourself offering a simple argument.	看看你能不能提供简单的论据
1206	I said if you don't clean your room,	我说如果你不清理你的房间
1207	then this would happen.	那样就会发生
1208	You did not clean your room, therefore,	你没有清理你的房间,因此,
1209	this sort of thing is what you're trying to find out for.	这种事是你想找出来的原因
1210	And have a look and see if you can fit them into the forms	看看能不能把它们装进表格里
1211	that we've given here.	我们在这里给予的。
1212	Okay, and next week, we're going to look at	好吧,下个星期,我们来看看
1213	actually identifying arguments	实际识别参数
1214	and setting them out logic book style.	并把它们逻辑书样式。
1215	We've been doing that today,	我们今天一直在做,
1216	but we're going to do that	但我们要这样做
1217	with some rather more complicated arguments next week.	下周的争论比较复杂
1218	We're going to look at arguments	и璶
1219	that you might make in the pub	你可以在酒吧里做点什么
1220	or in a newspaper or something like that.	或者在报纸上之类的
1221	We'll look at a few magazine leaders and things like that.	我们看看几个杂志的负责人和类似的事情.
1222	Sorry, newspaper leaders.	对不起,报纸领导人。
1223	That's it.	就这样

该视频共有字幕 1228 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

P4 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p04 3. 3.设定论证逻辑的课本形式. (P4)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p04 3. 3.设定论证逻辑的课本形式. (P4)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 1:20:21

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	Right, now we're onto the third week now and this week we're going to learn how to identify and how to analyse arguments	好了,现在我们进入第三周了这周我们要学会如何识别如何分析论点
0:07	and how to set them out logic book style.	和如何设置它们逻辑书风格。
0:10	And the point of doing this is it enables you to get rid of all sorts of things that are irrelevant to the argument	这样做的重心是它能让你摆脱与争论无关的一切
0:16	and you set out the argument so the structure of the argument is very clear.	你提出了这个论点所以这个论点的结构非常清楚
0:20	That way it's much easier to evaluate.	这样比较容易评估.
0:22	Okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
0:26	Okay, just a brief recap as usual on last week.	好吧,只是简短的回顾上周的往常。
0:29	Okay, if you remember we looked at the fact that there are two basic types of arguments, deductive and inductive,	好吧,如果你记得我们看的事实, 有两种基本类型的论点, 推理和诱导,
0:38	and we saw that deductive arguments are such that, come on, tell me, don't look at your handouts,	而且我们看到推论是如此, 来吧,告诉我, 不要看你的施舍,
0:45	tell me what a deductive argument is.	告诉我什么是推理论

展开字幕全文（1168 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Right, now we're onto the third week now and this week we're going to learn how to identify and how to analyse arguments	好了,现在我们进入第三周了这周我们要学会如何识别如何分析论点
2	and how to set them out logic book style.	和如何设置它们逻辑书风格。
3	And the point of doing this is it enables you to get rid of all sorts of things that are irrelevant to the argument	这样做的重心是它能让你摆脱与争论无关的一切
4	and you set out the argument so the structure of the argument is very clear.	你提出了这个论点所以这个论点的结构非常清楚
5	That way it's much easier to evaluate.	这样比较容易评估.
6	Okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
7	Okay, just a brief recap as usual on last week.	好吧,只是简短的回顾上周的往常。
8	Okay, if you remember we looked at the fact that there are two basic types of arguments, deductive and inductive,	好吧,如果你记得我们看的事实, 有两种基本类型的论点, 推理和诱导,
9	and we saw that deductive arguments are such that, come on, tell me, don't look at your handouts,	而且我们看到推论是如此, 来吧,告诉我, 不要看你的施舍,
10	tell me what a deductive argument is.	告诉我什么是推理论
11	How do you recognise it?	你怎么认出来的?
12	Ooh, ooh, ooh, aren't you good?	哦,哦,哦,你不好吗?
13	Haven't you done well?	你做得很好吗?
14	You're absolutely right, that's right.	你说得对,没错
15	The truth of the premise makes the truth of the conclusion certain,	前提的真相使结论的真相是肯定的,
16	or those of you who use the word guarantee, the truth of the premise guarantees the truth of the conclusion.	或用"保证"这个词的人前提的真相保证结论的真相
17	Well done, that's absolutely right.	干得好,这绝对是正确的。
18	Okay, then inductive arguments are such that, good, okay, I can hear that you've got it as well.	好吧,那么诱导性的论点是如此,好的,好吧, 我可以听到,你也得到了它。
19	Okay, I've put it slightly differently this week because if you remember last week we got into trouble	好吧,我这个星期有点不同因为如果你记得上周我们遇到了麻烦
20	with the way I phrased this as more or less	用我的话来说,这或多或少
21	because we don't want promises making less probable the conclusion, do we?	因为我们不想让承诺做出更不可能的结论,不是吗?
22	So I've said the truth of the premise makes the truth of the conclusion more likely	所以我说了前提的真相让结论的真相更可能
23	and, of course, as you know, it's either much more likely, as in the case of the sun has risen every day	当然,你知道的,它或者更可能, 就像太阳每天都升起一样
24	in the whole history of the universe, therefore it's likely it'll rise tomorrow	在宇宙的整个历史中, 因此它很可能明天会上升
25	and it's really pretty likely, isn't it?	也很有可能,不是吗?
26	It's almost certain.	这几乎是肯定的。
27	Or slightly more likely.	或者更可能一点
28	So the fact that every time you see me I've been wearing earrings makes it slightly more likely	所以每次你见到我我都会戴耳环这更可能
29	that the next time you see me I'll be wearing earrings.	下次你再见到我我就戴耳环了
30	So whereas deduction is an either-or thing, induction is a matter of degree.	因此,扣除是要么是要么是要么是,诱导是程度问题。
31	An argument is more or less strong.	争辩或多或少强.
32	Good, we then looked at some examples of arguments that are deductively valid in virtue of their form	好,我们接着研究了一些论点的例子,这些论点因其形式而具有推论效力。
33	and do you remember I was using the P's and Q's and so on	你还记得我用的是P和Q之类的吗?
34	to talk about things like modus ponens and modus tolens and so on	来谈谈诸如"临时小马"和"临时小马"之类的
35	so we've got if P then Q, P therefore Q.	因此,我们得到了如果P 然后Q,P 因此Q。
36	That's valid in virtue of its form because it doesn't matter what you're talking about	这在形式上是有效的因为不管你在说什么
37	it doesn't matter what sentences you put in for P or Q	你对P或Q的判罚不重要
38	if the structure of the argument is if P then Q, P therefore Q, it will be valid.	如果参数的结构是 P 然后是 Q, P 因此是 Q,它将是有效的.
39	So then we looked at some arguments that are deductively valid in virtue of their content.	因此,我们研究了一些论点,这些论点在内容上具有推论性。
40	Can you remember any of those?	你还记得吗?
41	This is a bit harder because they were only examples that we gave.	这有点困难,因为它们只是我们给出的例子。
42	Good?	怎么样?
43	Not quite.	没有
44	Lying is wrong therefore we shouldn't lie, exactly.	撒谎是错的因此我们不应该撒谎,确切地说。
45	Do you see how that is, if that's a deductively valid argument	你明白这是怎样的吗,如果这是一个推理有效的论据
46	it's in virtue of the meaning of the word wrong, isn't it?	是以字义之误,岂不?
47	Lying is wrong therefore we shouldn't lie.	说谎是错的所以我们不应该撒谎
48	So the thought is that if you understand the word wrong properly	所以,我想如果你正确理解这个词
49	you'll see that if lying is wrong, if you believe lying is wrong	你会看到,如果说谎是错误的, 如果你相信说谎是错误的
50	then you'll also believe that you shouldn't lie.	那你也会相信你不应该撒谎
51	Doesn't mean you won't lie, but it does mean that if you do you'll feel guilty or whatever.	但不代表你不会撒谎但这确实意味着如果你这样做你会觉得内疚什么的
52	But that's in virtue of the meaning of the word wrong.	然此言因缘义错.
53	Can you remember any other arguments that were valid in virtue of the content, the meaning of particular words?	你还记得其他任何因为内容,特定词的含义而有效的论据吗?
54	Right, I can't remember the particular example I used there.	对,我不记得我用过的具体例子了
55	I don't think that would have been one actually.	我觉得那其实不是
56	I might be wrong about that, but I have a feeling that was an example that I used of one of the ones that's valid in virtue of form.	我可能错了, 但我有一种感觉, 那是我用的例子之一在形式上是有效的。
57	No, that came later.	不,这是后来。
58	Temporal, yes, okay, that was one.	时间,是的,好吧,这是一个。
59	Can you remember how that went?	你还记得这是怎么回事吗?
60	Okay, that's right.	好吧,没错。
61	It's raining today, therefore tomorrow it will have rained today.	今天下雨了所以明天今天就会下雨了
62	Okay, so that's because of the word tomorrow and our understanding of before and after and yesterday and today and so on.	好吧,那是因为明天的话, 以及我们对前后和昨天,今天等等的理解。
63	Okay, good.	好吧,不错。
64	Then we moved on to inductive arguments and we looked at several different examples of an inductive argument.	然后,我们转而讨论引论,我们研究了引论的几个不同的例子。
65	Can you remember any of those?	你还记得吗?
66	You mentioned one a minute ago.	你一分钟前提到过一个
67	Yes, what was it about Einstein?	是的,爱因斯坦是怎么回事?
68	It was an argument from authority, good.	这是权威的争论,很好。
69	Okay, so this man's an authority on this, therefore he said this, therefore he's an authority on this.	好吧,所以这个人是一个权威关于这一点, 因此他说了这一点, 因此他是一个权威关于这一点。
70	That's a bad way of looking at it, but you can see that assumes the principle of what?	这是不好的看待它的方式, 但你可以看到,这是假设什么的原则?
71	What's behind every inductive argument?	每个诱导性论点背后是什么?
72	Continuity, yes.	连续,是的。
73	Can anyone put it in the way I put it last week?	有人能用上星期我说的话来阻止吗?
74	There's a principle that Hume is most famous for, David Hume, he said the principle of the uniformity of nature, that's right.	有一条原则认为休姆最著名的是,大卫·休姆,他说自然统一的原则,这是正确的.
75	So what's happened in the past will happen in the future.	故前世之事,将来之事也.
76	If it was like that in the past, it's going to be like that in the future and so on.	如是往昔如来未来如是等.
77	That's the principle of the uniformity of nature which underlies every inductive argument and which can't itself be argued for because arguing for it takes us in a circle.	这就是自然的统一原则,它支撑着每一个引证性的论点, 并且它本身不能被争论,因为它的争论让我们陷入一个圈子.
78	Why is the future like the past?	为什么未来会像过去一样?
79	Because it always has been.	因为它一直是。
80	Well, again, we're relying on induction, aren't we?	再说一遍,我们靠上岗培训,不是吗?
81	Okay, so we looked at some examples.	好吧,我们看看一些例子。
82	This week we're going to be learning how to identify and analyze arguments and how to set them out logic book style.	本周我们将学习如何辨别和分析论证,以及如何提出逻辑书的风格.
83	So if you've got some arguments from this week that you had trouble analyzing or you had trouble recognizing, you'll be able to use the arguments that you found this week to practice what we're going to learn today.	所以如果你从这个星期得到一些论点, 你分析有问题,或者你难以识别, 你就可以利用这个星期你发现的论点来实践我们今天要学的东西。
84	Okay, so let's start by seeing an argument set out logic book style.	好吧,让我们先看一个论证设置逻辑书风格。
85	You're getting sick of this argument, aren't you?	你厌倦了这场争论,不是吗?
86	I'm getting sick of this argument.	我厌倦了这个争论。
87	But here it is again, set out logic book style.	但这里又出现了逻辑书的风格。
88	Okay, you don't have to write out premise one in full.	好吧,你不必写出前提一全。
89	You can just put P1 or you don't even have to put that.	你可以放P1 或者你甚至不用放那个
90	You can just assume that the premises come first and then the conclusion.	你可以假设房子是先来的然后是结论
91	But that's an argument set out logic book style.	但这是个论点,规定了逻辑书的风格.
92	And you might ask, well, what's the point of setting out arguments logic book style?	你可能会问, 那么,有什么意义设置论证逻辑书风格?
93	Has anyone got any idea?	有人知道吗?
94	Why do we bother setting out arguments logic book style?	为什么我们要费劲地提出逻辑学的书式?
95	Yes, absolutely.	是的,当然。
96	It should make it stronger because what you're doing in setting out an argument logic book style is just identifying the argument.	它应该使它更强大,因为你在阐述论证逻辑书风格时所做的只是辨别论证.
97	Therefore, you shouldn't you shouldn't be able to make it either stronger or weaker.	因此,你不应该让它更强或更弱。
98	All you're doing is identifying what the argument is.	你所做的就是找出争论是什么
99	So we're not evaluating it at the moment.	所以我们现在没有在评估它。
100	We're just analyzing it, just setting it out logic book style.	我们只是分析一下它, 只是设定它的逻辑书风格。
101	Good.	不错
102	Absolutely.	当然
103	That's that's right.	没错
104	What we do in setting out an argument logic book style is we actually identify all the premises.	我们在论证逻辑的书本风格时所做的就是确定所有的地方。
105	So if there's a suppressed premise or an assumption, as Paul says, we try and make it explicit if we can.	因此,如果有一个被压制的前提或假设,如保罗所说,我们如果可以,就尽量明确它.
106	Absolutely.	当然
107	It's a set format.	这是一个设定格式。
108	So if you remember what was on there, you got premise, premise, conclusion.	所以,如果你记得那里是什么, 你有前提,前提,结论。
109	So we know exactly what is being argued for, because that's what the conclusion is, isn't it?	所以,我们完全知道为什么争论, 因为这就是结论,不是吗?
110	And we know exactly what's being put forward as reasons for believing that thing, which are the premises.	我们确切地知道是什么被提出来作为相信那东西的理由, 这是前提。
111	Any other ideas on this one, one, two, and then we'll move on.	任何其它的想法关于这个,一,二, 然后我们继续前进。
112	That's right.	没错
113	Because if you remember, I was asking you to identify the premises and the conclusion.	因为如果你记得,我要求你确定房地和结论。
114	Of course, you have to be able to do that to set out an argument logic book style.	当然,你必须能够做到这一点,来设定一种论证逻辑书的风格.
115	But once you've done it, once you've set it out logic book style, then it's obvious.	但是,一旦你完成了它,一旦你规定了逻辑书的风格,就很明显了.
116	Yep.	对
117	One, two, the gentleman behind you was first.	一,二,你后面的先生是第一个。
118	It can do.	它可以做到这一点。
119	Yes.	对
120	That might also come later.	以后也可能出现这种情况。
121	Again, we'll have a look at that later on.	我们稍后再看看
122	One more.	再来一次
123	Up to a point, as we'll see, Lord Copper.	上至一分,如所见,铜爵.
124	OK.	摆
125	I've put down.	我已经放下了
126	There's the one we mentioned.	我们提到的那个
127	It enables us to add suppressed premises.	它使我们能够增加被压制的房舍。
128	It enables us to eliminate cross references, irrelevancies and inconsistent terms.	它使我们能够消除相互参照、不光彩和不一致的用语。
129	OK. And that makes it much easier to identify the argument.	摆这样就更容易辨别这个论点。
130	We'll go through all this.	我们会经历这一切。
131	So if you don't quite understand what I mean here, don't worry about it.	所以,如果你不完全理解我的意思, 不要担心。
132	We'll cover it in a minute.	我们马上就来
133	And it makes it much, much easier to evaluate the argument, as I hope you'll see today.	这让评估争论变得容易得多,我希望你们今天能看到。
134	OK.	摆
135	Right.	对
136	On the surface of it, it's easy to set out arguments logic book style.	在它的表面,很容易设定辩证逻辑书风格.
137	Let's try this one.	让我们试试这个。
138	You're familiar with this.	你很熟悉这个
139	You've seen this argument before.	你以前见过这种争论
140	First of all, tell me what's the conclusion of this argument.	首先,告诉我这个论点的结论是什么.
141	Tell me which is the conclusion.	告诉我什么是结论。
142	Good.	不错
143	Edinburgh is north of Oxford.	爱丁堡位于牛津北部.
144	So premise one.	因此,前提一。
145	Good.	不错
146	And I'm glad you left out the word since, because that's a logical word, isn't it?	我很高兴你忘了这个词因为这个词很合理不是吗?
147	That's not actually part of the sentence that is the premise.	这其实不是部分句子的前提。
148	So you were absolutely right to leave that out.	所以,你绝对是正确的,不说这一点。
149	OK.	摆
150	Premise one, then.	假设一个,那么。
151	So you're writing down premise one.	所以你写下来的前提一。
152	Manchester is north of Oxford.	曼彻斯特位于牛津北部.
153	Premise two.	初标二.
154	Edinburgh is north of Manchester.	爱丁堡位于曼彻斯特以北.
155	Good.	不错
156	And the conclusion, Edinburgh is north of Oxford.	而结论是爱丁堡位于牛津北部.
157	And you left out since and and.	你从那时起就离开了
158	Well done.	干得不错
159	Those two are the logical words.	这两个词是逻辑上的
160	They're the words on which the validity of the argument hangs, as we'll see later.	正如我们以后所见,它们就是争论的有效性所依赖的词.
161	But we leave them out of the identification of the premise and the conclusion.	但是,我们不让他们参与确定前提和结论。
162	OK. Let's try this one.	摆让我们试试这个。
163	What's the conclusion?	有何结论.
164	Which is float?	哪个是浮?
165	Yeah.	对
166	OK.	摆
167	The conclusion is which is float.	结论是浮着的。
168	Premise one.	精进一.
169	Which is the made of wood?	哪个是木头做的?
170	Wood floats.	木飘浮.
171	Good.	不错
172	Again, you left out the logical words and that's right.	再说一遍,你漏掉了逻辑词,这是正确的。
173	Can I just give you a warning of this?	我可以给你一个警告吗?
174	And is a logical word.	并是一个逻辑词。
175	But and here is connecting which two parts of language?	但这里是连接语言的哪两个部分?
176	I mean, two of the same parts of language.	我的意思是,两个相同的语言部分。
177	What's it connecting here?	这里有什么联系?
178	Two two premises.	两座楼
179	OK.	摆
180	But what are premises there?	但那里有什么前提?
181	Sentences.	判决。
182	So and here is a sentence connector.	这里有一个句子连接器。
183	OK. And we can connect any sentences we want here.	摆我们可以在这里连接任何句子。
184	Here it is used again, connecting these two sentences.	这里再次使用,连接这两句.
185	But what about this one?	但是这个呢?
186	Oedipus is a black and white cat.	俄狄浦斯是一只黑白的猫.
187	OK.	摆
188	Is and working as a sentence connective there?	和工作作为一个句子连接在那里?
189	Oedipus is a black and white cat.	俄狄浦斯是一只黑白的猫.
190	What's it connecting there?	那有什么关系?
191	Two adjectives or two predicates, as we would say in logic.	正如我们在逻辑中所说的,有两个形容词或两个前提。
192	So you've got to be a bit careful when you see and in a sentence.	所以,你必须有点小心当你看到和在一个句子。
193	Sometimes and will be part of the content if it's not combining two sentences but two predicates.	有时,如果它不是将两句合并,而是将构成内容的一部分.
194	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
195	So just watch out for that.	所以小心点
196	Keep keep an eye open for that.	注意点
197	Right.	对
198	Good.	不错
199	Well, we've set those two out logic book styles.	好了,我们已经设定了这两种逻辑书的风格。
200	OK.	摆
201	Now try this one.	现在试试这个
202	OK. Now I'm not serious about your trying that one right at the minute.	摆现在,我不是认真的关于你尝试一分钟。
203	But we are going to do that one before the end of today.	但是,我们将在今天结束前完成这项工作。
204	OK.	摆
205	But this is another reason we set it out logic book style, because you can look straight at those arguments and you can pretty well see what the form is.	但这也是我们提出逻辑书风格的另一个原因, 因为你们可以直观地看待这些论点, 你可以非常清楚地看到形式是什么。
206	Can't you?	不可以吗?
207	You can see the other ones.	你可以看见其他的
208	You can see whether they're good arguments.	你可以看到他们是否是很好的争论。
209	You can tell straight off.	你可以直说
210	But this is now those of you who found arguments from magazines or newspapers of this week.	但是,现在,你们这些从本周杂志或报纸上找到论据的人。
211	Were your arguments more like that one or more?	你的论点是不是更像一个或更多?
212	Yes.	对
213	OK.	摆
214	And this is why they're so difficult, because actually when we're in the pub arguing with each other about whether euthanasia is acceptable or not,	这就是为什么他们如此困难, 因为实际上当我们在酒吧里争论关于安乐死是否可以接受,
215	whether we should go for assisted suicide or not, we add all sorts of things to our arguments.	无论我们是否应该去协助自杀, 我们增加各种事情我们的论点。
216	We say things like, well, if that's true, I'm a Dutchman.	我们说话喜欢,嗯,如果这是真的, 我是个荷兰人。
217	What does that mean?	这是什么意思?
218	If that's true, I'm a Dutchman.	如果是真的,我是一个荷兰人。
219	What does that mean in English?	这在英语中是什么意思?
220	It's not true.	非实非实.
221	So when I say if that's true, I'm a Dutchman.	所以,当我说如果这是真的,我是荷兰人。
222	All I'm actually saying is that's not true.	我只是说,这不是真的。
223	OK. Let's see if I can think of another one.	摆看看我能不能再想一个
224	No, I can't because I'm doing it off the top of my head.	不,我不能,因为我这样做从我的头顶。
225	But in English, when we're talking, we use all sorts of colloquialisms.	但是在英语中,当我们说话的时候,我们使用各种口语.
226	We add all sorts of things.	我们添加各种东西。
227	We have all sorts of ums and ahs and uhs.	我们有各种各样的ums,啊,呃。
228	And it makes it very difficult to identify the argument itself.	它使得很难辨别这个论点本身。
229	And that's what you're doing when you set out an argument logic book style, is you're getting rid of all the irrelevancies.	这就是你所要做的, 当你提出一个论证逻辑的书风格, 就是你正在摆脱所有的不光彩。
230	OK.	摆
231	Here's a set of steps for analyzing arguments.	以下是分析论据的一套步骤.
232	I'm not using this microphone, by the way.	顺便说一句,我没有用麦克风
233	Can people at the back hear me?	后面的人能听见我吗?
234	Yeah.	对
235	OK.	摆
236	Here's a set of steps for analyzing arguments.	以下是分析论据的一套步骤.
237	We're going to follow these steps today.	我们今天要遵循这些步骤。
238	And I meant to actually write them out on the board and I forgot.	我本想把它们写在板子上我忘了
239	So you'll have to keep referring back as I ask you, what do we do next?	所以,你将不得不继续提到回我问你, 我们下一步怎么办?
240	You'll have to keep referring back to slide 11.	你得继续引用到11号幻灯片
241	OK. Firstly, let's look at identifying premises and conclusions.	摆首先,让我们看看确定前提和结论。
242	We've already done quite a lot of this.	我们已经做了很多事情
243	So this is fairly easy.	所以这很简单。
244	We look for the argument indicators and I've given quite a few here.	我们寻找论证指标我在这里给出了很多
245	And then we identify.	然后我们确定。
246	Well, OK.	好吧,没关系。
247	In identifying the conclusion, what are we looking for?	在确定结论时,我们在找什么?
248	Tell me again what a conclusion is.	再告诉我一个结论是什么
249	Another bit of revision.	又一释.
250	Now, careful.	小心点
251	What is the conclusion?	是什么结论?
252	It's not the reason for the truth of the other premises.	此非别处真言之因.
253	The other premises is what you said, actually, isn't it?	其他的是你说过的,不是吗?
254	That's right.	没错
255	It's what it is you're arguing for, isn't it?	这就是你所争辩的,不是吗?
256	It's the final.	终会.
257	You were just getting mixed up there and it's very easy to get mixed up.	你刚刚弄混了那里很容易搞混
258	And when you get mixed up, of course, you invert it, which gets everything wrong.	当你被搅拌的时候,当然,你颠倒它, 这让一切都错了。
259	But that's easy to do.	但这很容易
260	But the conclusion, you can only tell which is the conclusion by looking at the function of that sentence in the argument.	但是,结论,你只能通过在论证中看那句的功能来判断哪个是结论.
261	And what a conclusion is, is the thing you are arguing for.	一个结论是,你所主张的就是这个。
262	It's, in effect, the statement you're making.	实际上,这是你的声明。
263	And then the premises are the supporting evidence or the supporting reasons.	然后,房地是证明证据或证明理由。
264	You've got to be a bit careful with evidence because they're not always, they're arguments rather than evidence.	你必须小心对待证据,因为证据并不总是,而是争论而不是证据.
265	Yeah, exactly.	没错
266	So, yeah.	对
267	OK, good.	好吧,不错。
268	Let's, here's an easy one.	让我们来,这里是一个简单的。
269	Identify the argument indicators in these arguments.	确定这些论点中的论点指标。
270	What about the first one?	那第一个呢?
271	Which is the argument indicator in this one?	这其中的辩证指标是什么?
272	There are two actually.	其实有两个
273	Since.	从此.
274	Good.	不错
275	Is there another one?	还有别的吗?
276	Four.	四门.
277	Well done.	干得不错
278	You're getting good at this.	你越来越擅长了
279	OK, what about this one?	好吧,那这个呢?
280	Put up your hands this time.	这次把手举起来
281	I'm going to.	我会的。
282	OK, what's the argument indicator in this one?	好吧,这里面的争论指标是什么?
283	Stick your hand up if you're, once you've found it.	找到就举起手来
284	Because some people, and I have to admit I'm one of them, think quite slowly.	因为有些人,我必须承认我是其中之一, 慢慢思考。
285	And if people yell out, it's, they don't get a chance to think.	如果人们大喊大叫,那就是,他们没有机会思考.
286	OK, now you can all yell out together.	现在你们可以一起大喊大叫了
287	Because.	因为...
288	That's right.	没错
289	Yep.	对
290	Good.	不错
291	OK, what about this one?	好吧,那这个呢?
292	Put your hand up again.	又举手曰.
293	Quite easy, this one, isn't it?	这个很简单,不是吗?
294	OK, again.	好吧,再来一次。
295	Yeah, there we are.	是的,我们到了。
296	And there it is.	就是这样
297	You've got them all right.	你得到了他们所有的权利。
298	Oh, actually, the red isn't very good, is it?	哦,其实,红色不是很好,是吗?
299	Can you see that I've marked them all in red?	你看到我用红色标记了吗?
300	If you can't see, you'll see it on your handout.	若见不见即见于施.
301	That's a shame.	真遗憾
302	I didn't realize that the red doesn't show.	忽觉红不露.
303	OK, now we're going to practice looking at conclusions.	好了,现在我们要练习看结论。
304	Again, we've done this before, so this isn't difficult at all.	再说一遍,我们以前做过,所以这一点都不难
305	What's the conclusion here?	这里有什么结论?
306	What is it?	这是什么?
307	Have another.	再来一杯
308	Don't yell out.	别大喊大叫
309	OK, have another look at the argument.	好吧,再看看这个争论。
310	Remind yourself what a conclusion is and tell me.	提醒自己一个结论是什么告诉我
311	Socrates is mortal.	苏格拉底是凡人
312	Yes.	对
313	Why did you get that confused?	你为什么这么困惑?
314	I mean, there's a very good reason for getting confused.	我的意思是,有一个很好的理由变得困惑。
315	What is it?	这是什么?
316	What?	你说什么?
317	It's not at the end.	终不在.
318	You're you're you're being expecting to see the conclusion at the end, haven't you?	你是在期待最后看到结论是吗?
319	But but as you see from this one, it doesn't need to be at the end in this one.	但是,从这个你可以看到, 它不需要在这个结尾。
320	It's in the middle, isn't it?	在中间,不是吗?
321	So it's remember what I say that the you can only tell which is the conclusion by looking at the function of played by a particular sentence.	所以,记住我所说的,你只能通过看某一句子所扮演的功能来判断这个结论。
322	The conclusion is the sentence you are arguing for.	结论是你所主张的句子。
323	OK, so here's the and it's this in red.	好吧,这是红色的。
324	Just as you said, Socrates is mortal is the conclusion.	就像你说的苏格拉底是凡人就是结论
325	OK, find the conclusion of this argument.	好吧,找到这个论点的结论。
326	Now, put up your hand again rather than yelling out.	现在,再把手举起来而不是大喊大叫
327	And don't worry if it takes you a bit of time.	不要担心,如果你需要一点时间。
328	Some people just do think more slowly and that's fine.	有些人只是想得比较慢,这很好。
329	OK, what is it?	好吧,这是什么?
330	You're brilliant.	你很聪明
331	They are exactly right.	他们说得对。
332	Socialism was doomed to failure.	社会主义注定要失败。
333	OK, as picked out in red.	好吧,红色的。
334	And what about this one?	那这个呢?
335	Hands up.	举起手来
336	OK, would you like to have a go?	好,你想试试吗?
337	Yes.	对
338	OK, they will continue to need help from industrial nations.	好吧,他们将继续需要工业国家的帮助。
339	Now, here's a little hint for something that's coming.	现在,有一个小提示的东西即将来临。
340	Do you remember I said that setting something out logic book style enables you to remove cross references,	你还记得我说过设定一些逻辑书样式让你可以删除交叉引用
341	irrelevancies and whatever the other one was.	无可救药还有其他的
342	OK, look at this one.	好了,看看这个。
343	Can you have an idea of what I meant there?	你能知道我在说什么吗?
344	Because this put up your hands if you can if you think you see what I can mean.	因为如果能的话,这个会举起手来如果你认为你明白我的意思
345	OK, no, that's that's actually not what I mean there.	好吧,不,那其实不是我的意思。
346	I was thinking I think you thought I meant in the whole argument.	我在想,我认为你认为我指的是整个争论。
347	But actually, I just meant in they will continue to need help from industrial nations.	但实际上,我的意思是,他们将继续需要工业国家的帮助。
348	Just look at the conclusion there.	看看结论
349	Can you see what I might have meant by saying we need to remove cross references and inconsistent terms and so on?	你明白我的意思吗? 我说我们需要删除交叉引用和不一致的术语等等?
350	Well done.	干得不错
351	Because this they is an anaphoric reference, isn't it?	因为这是个令人厌恶的参考,不是吗?
352	It takes us back to something that's already been said.	它带我们回到已经说过的东西。
353	And we need to identify that because when we separate it out as the conclusion,	我们需要确定这一点因为当我们把它分开作为结论时
354	we're left with a statement that actually has no meaning, does it?	我们有一个声明,实际上没有意义,是吗?
355	In the they will continue to need.	他们将继续需要。
356	Well, who's they?	他们是谁?
357	So we need to remove that cross reference and we'll be seeing how to do that later.	所以我们需要去掉那个交叉的参照物, 以后我们再看看怎样做。
358	Indeed, there is.	确实如此。
359	And we'll be looking at that later, I think.	我想我们以后再看
360	Good.	不错
361	Well done.	干得不错
362	OK, there's the conclusion they picked out in red.	好吧,这是他们用红色做的结论。
363	I'll pick it out in green next week.	下星期我用绿色选出来
364	Yes.	对
365	OK, that's a good idea.	好吧,这是一个好主意。
366	I'll do that.	我来
367	Yes, because it's already in bold, but I could easily do it or I could do it in capital letters, couldn't I?	是的,因为它已经用粗体, 但我可以很容易做到这一点或者我可以用大写字母,不是吗?
368	OK, identify all the premises of this argument.	好吧,找出这个论点的所有前提。
369	And don't forget that there might be a suppressed premise.	别忘了可能有一个被压制的前提.
370	Now, this is going to take you a little longer.	现在,这要花你一点点时间。
371	Don't call out.	别叫
372	You might have to write it down and put up your hands when you've identified the premises of that argument.	你可能必须写下来并举起手当你已经确定辩论的前提。
373	And a hint.	还有一点提示
374	There are two of them.	有二门.
375	Push up your hand when you've finished.	完成后举手.
376	You'll have to paraphrase a little bit.	得略释.
377	And if you're finding that, don't don't worry about it.	如果你发现这一点, 不要担心。
378	If you're thinking I can't be right because I'm not using exactly the same words, don't worry about that.	如果你认为我不对因为我没有使用完全相同的词, 别担心。
379	Paraphrase is fine.	释义无碍.
380	What you mustn't do is change the meaning of anything.	你不能做的就是改变一切的意义
381	But paraphrasing it to get the grammar right or whatever is fine.	但用它来解释语法的正确或什么的都行
382	OK, right.	好吧,对了。
383	Would you like to tell us?	你想告诉我们吗?
384	Yep.	对
385	OK, that's premise one.	好吧,这是前提一。
386	对,OK。
387	Yes, that that would do.	是的,这样就可以了。
388	OK, any variation on those themes?	好吧,有什么变化这些主题?
389	So here it is.	所以在这里。
390	Premise one.	精进一.
391	Incentives are needed for a prosperous economy.	经济繁荣需要激励。
392	Premise two.	初标二.
393	Socialism did not provide incentives.	社会主义并没有提供奖励。
394	Conclusion.	结论。
395	Socialism was doomed to failure.	社会主义注定要失败。
396	OK, do you see where both those premises come from?	OK,你看到这两处房子都来自哪里吗?
397	OK, they're needed.	好吧,他们是需要的。
398	Which one is the suppressed premise?	哪个是被压制的前提?
399	Yes, that's right.	没错
400	The first one was suppressed in the original argument.	第一个在最初的论证中被压制.
401	But but it's made explicit as we set out the argument logic book style.	但是在我们阐述论证逻辑书的风格时,它已经明确了.
402	And if you had any variation on this theme, that's fine.	如果你有关于这个主题的任何变化, 那没关系。
403	So long as it has the same meaning.	如是等义.
404	Does anyone want to check some?	有人想检查一下吗?
405	Well, I think what you're thinking.	我觉得你在想什么
406	Well, is this what you're thinking of?	这就是你的想法吗?
407	Doomed to failure.	最终失败。
408	I mean, you want something like you will only succeed if you have a prosperous economy.	我的意思是,你想要的东西像你会成功只有你有一个繁荣的经济。
409	Don't you?	是吗?
410	OK, that's really in.	好吧,这是真的英寸
411	You've got that in premise one, haven't you?	你有一个前提,不是吗?
412	Or you could have something like you have succeeded only if you if you have a prosperous economy.	或者,只有经济繁荣,你才能有像你这样的成功。
413	You could add that.	你可以加上这个
414	OK, you don't need to me.	好吧,你不需要对我。
415	I mean, quite honestly, if you make explicit everything, you might find yourself.	老实说如果你把一切都说清楚你可能会发现自己
416	Is that my mobile?	那是我的手机吗?
417	No, it's yours.	不,这是你的。
418	Good.	不错
419	Well, bad.	情况很糟
420	But better than this being mine, I completely accept your point.	但比这更好的是我的, 我完全接受你的观点。
421	I think you could easily add another premise in there and you could say prosperous companies are needed for success.	我认为你可以很容易地增加另一个前提并且你可以说,繁荣的公司是成功的需要的。
422	Incentives are needed for prosperous economies.	繁荣的经济需要激励。
423	Socialism did not provide incentives.	社会主义并没有提供奖励。
424	Therefore, socialism was not a success or something.	因此,社会主义并不是成功的。
425	Do you see we could easily have added that one in as well and made explicit to suppress premises.	你看,我们本可以很容易地加上这个,并明确禁止房地。
426	Yeah, fair enough.	对,很公平
427	OK, anyone else have anything?	好吧,还有谁有吗?
428	Not quite this.	不是这个
429	No.	没有
430	OK, good.	好吧,不错。
431	复用此 one.
432	So since many newly emerging nations do not have the capital resources needed necessary for sustained growth,	因此,由于许多新兴国家没有持续增长所需的资本资源,
433	they will continue to need help from industrial nations.	他们将继续需要工业化国家的帮助。
434	You'll find, actually, as you practice at this, it gets much, much easier.	你会发现,实际上,当你在练习的时候, 它会变得非常,更容易。
435	And another trick is, if you've not quite seen this, is to identify the sentences that make up the premise, if you can.	另一个诀窍是,如果你还没有完全看到这一点, 就是识别那些构成前提的句子,如果可以的话。
436	I mean, here you've only got one sentence and then see what else you need to make an argument.	我的意思是,这里你只有一个句子然后看看你还需要什么提出争论。
437	OK, let's try some.	好吧,让我们试试。
438	Many newly emerging nations will continue to need help.	许多新兴国家将继续需要帮助。
439	Anyone have anything different?	有人有不一样的吗?
440	Yes, that's certainly implicit in that argument, so you can make it explicit if you like.	是的,这当然是隐含在这个论点中, 所以你可以明确地说,如果你喜欢的话。
441	Well, no.	嗯,没有。
442	Now you've got to be careful because when you're identifying the premise, don't put in anything that you happen to believe.	现在,你必须小心因为当你确定前提时, 不要放任何你碰巧相信的东西。
443	What you're doing is you're identifying the argument that whoever it is that wrote this is making.	你所做的是找出一个论点, 即无论是谁写的。
444	Now, we haven't we're not yet evaluating the argument.	现在,我们还没有评估这个论点。
445	We may decide that they're wrong in all sorts of ways.	我们可以决定他们在各种方面都是错误的。
446	But what we don't do is add things on.	但我们不做的是增加一些东西。
447	All we're doing here is sticking to the meaning of the original.	我们在这里所做的只是坚持原话的意思.
448	We can paraphrase, but we mustn't change the meaning.	我们可以解释,但我们不能改变意义。
449	To change the meaning is really bad, really, really bad.	改变意义是非常糟糕的,真的,非常糟糕。
450	OK, is there anything else that anyone wants to try?	OK,还有别的什么想尝试的吗?
451	Oh, yes, one more.	哦,是的,再来一个。
452	Yep.	对
453	OK.	摆
454	When you're adding suppressed premises, try and be careful not to add more than you need for the argument.	在增加被压制的前提时,尽量注意不要增加比辩论所需的更多.
455	I mean, let's have a look.	我的意思是,让我们来看看。
456	Let's see what I put down and then let's see whether we still need that.	看看我写了什么然后看看我们是否还需要这个
457	So I've put down many newly emerging nations do not have capital resources.	所以,我把许多新兴国家都没有资本资源。
458	Capital resources are necessary for sustained growth.	资本资源是持续增长的必要条件。
459	If a newly emerging nation is to sustain its growth and it does not have capital resources, it will need help from industrial nations.	如果一个新兴国家要维持其增长并且没有资本资源,它将需要工业化国家的帮助。
460	Conclusion, many newly emerging nations will need help from industrial nations.	结论是,许多新兴国家需要工业化国家的帮助。
461	Well, is it now remember in the very first week we looked at the difference between implication and entailments.	嗯,它现在记得,在第一个星期,我们审视了含义和内涵之间的区别。
462	Does anyone remember what the difference between implication and entailment is?	有人记得暗示和暗示之间的区别吗?
463	And don't worry if you don't, because it's a very sophisticated distinction, but it's important to realize.	也不用担心,如果你不这样做,因为它是一个非常复杂的区分,但重要的是要意识到.
464	If we've got an if-then statement, are we asserting either the antecedent, the if clause, or the consequent, the then clause?	如果我们有声明的话,我们是否坚持前例,如果条款,或者随后的条款?
465	Or are we just saying if P then Q?	或者我们只是说如果P然后是Q?
466	We're not actually claiming that P or Q, are we?	我们其实不是在声称P或Q吧?
467	If we say if P then Q, are you with me?	如果我们说,如果P然后Q, 你和我一起吗?
468	So is there a conclusion in if P then Q?	那么,如果P然后是Q,那有什么结论吗?
469	Does something of that structure have the premise and conclusion structure that would make it an argument?	这种结构的某种东西是否有前提和结论结构,使它成为一个论据?
470	No, it doesn't, does it?	不,它没有,是吗?
471	What it has is two sentences combined with the logical phrase if then.	它有两个句子和逻辑短语结合,如果是的话。
472	But actually you're not claiming anything and you're not backing up anything by offering reasons.	但实际上你并没有声称什么也没有通过提供理由来支持任何事情。
473	So it's not an argument, it's an implication.	故此非辩,谓之含义.
474	Do you understand that?	你明白吗?
475	That would be a case of putting in a suppressed premise too far from my perspective.	这将是一个从我的观点看太过被压制的前提。
476	And I think that's because we haven't specified what help they need here.	我认为这是因为我们没有说明他们需要什么帮助。
477	We're just saying, okay, you've got if that, then that, and that's saying the if is true, if you like, so then that.	我们只是说,好吧,你已经得到了如果, 那么,这就是说如果是真的,如果你喜欢,那么。
478	We don't actually need to spell out what the that is.	我们实际上不需要说明那是什么。
479	I can see why you want that, but I would say it's not necessary for the argument.	我能理解你为什么想这么做但我会说辩论没必要这样
480	You could just say what?	你能说什么?
481	Would need help from the World Bank.	需要世界银行的帮助。
482	Well, yes, the fact is what we're doing is we're identifying the argument.	嗯,是的,事实是,我们正在做的是确定的论点。
483	We're not evaluating it yet.	我们还没评估呢
484	Do you see the difference?	你看到区别了吗?
485	We're just identifying it, then we evaluate it.	我们只是确认一下然后评估一下
486	So we do have to let the content go.	因此,我们确实必须放弃内容。
487	But he is quite right that if there is another suppressed premise there that's needed for the argument, we need to bring it out.	但他说得对,如果有另一个被压制的前提在那里,我们需要把它出来。
488	But I don't think that was one of them.	但我不认为那是其中之一。
489	Well, is this argument saying what sort of help they need from?	这个论点是他们需要什么样的帮助?
490	I mean, I agree it's an implication there, but I don't think it's okay.	我的意思是,我同意这是一个暗示, 但我不认为没关系。
491	So it could be that instead of it will need help.	因此,它可能需要帮助而不是帮助。
492	We should change that help to capital resources.	我们应当改变这种有助于资本资源的做法。
493	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
494	So it would then read many newly emerging nations do not have capital resources.	因此,它将读出许多新兴国家没有资本资源。
495	Capital resources are necessary for sustained growth.	资本资源是持续增长的必要条件。
496	If a newly emerging nation is to sustain its growth and it does not have capital resources, it will need capital resources from industrial nations.	如果新兴国家要维持其增长,而且没有资本资源,就需要工业化国家的资本资源。
497	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
498	And then in the same way, we'd say many newly emerging nations will need capital resources from sustain.	同样的,我们也会说,许多新兴国家需要资本资源来维持。
499	So that we would be getting the premise that you want in by removing inconsistent terms rather than by adding another premise.	这样我们就能通过删除前后不一致的术语而不是增加另一个前提来获得你想要的前提.
500	But I'm saying it is.	但我是说它是。
501	Well, I'll tell you what.	好吧,我告诉你。
502	Let's come back to this when we've looked at inconsistent terms, because I hope then I'll be able to convince you that it is actually in there.	让我们回到这个,当我们看不一致的术语, 因为我希望这样,我就可以说服你,它实际上是在那里。
503	It's just in there in an inconsistent way.	它只是以不一致的方式在那里。
504	But do remind me to come back.	但请提醒我回来
505	Well, no, because the conclusion is that they will need help.	不,因为结论是他们需要帮助
506	I mean, don't forget the premises may be false.	我的意思是,不要忘记房地可能是假的。
507	I mean, nobody's saying that the premises are true at the moment.	我的意思是,没有人说房地是真实的,目前。
508	We're just wanting to identify the premise.	我们只是想确定前提
509	Well, that we worry about later.	好吧,我们担心以后。
510	When we're not evaluating the argument at the moment, we're just analyzing it.	目前我们没有评估争论时,只是分析一下.
511	We're putting down exactly what was said in the argument or what was said and what was implied in the argument.	我们要把辩论中所说的或辩论中所说的和辩论中暗示的全部放下来
512	Well, I think if we change that to capital resources, it does say that.	我想如果我们改用资本资源,它确实这么说。
513	I mean, aren't we implying in this argument that the help that the industrialized nations are giving to the newly emerging nations is capital resources?	我的意思是,我们不是在这个论点中暗示工业化国家给予新兴国家的帮助是资本资源吗?
514	Yes, absolutely.	是的,当然。
515	But that's why when we get rounds to removing inconsistent terms, which we haven't got round to yet, that's one of the things we would want to make explicit.	但这就是为什么当我们得到的回合去除不一致的术语, 而我们还没有得到回合, 这就是我们想要明确的事情之一。
516	So there are different ways of making things explicit.	因此,有不同的方式使事情变得明确。
517	One is by adding suppressed premises and another is by removing inconsistent terms.	一个是增加被压制的房地,另一个是删除不一致的用语。
518	And I've already promised we'll come back to this argument when we've done that and make sure that we're clear on that.	我已经保证过,我们会回到这个争论当我们这样做了,并确保我们清楚这一点。
519	I wouldn't.	我不会的
520	Not at the moment, I wouldn't.	现在不行,我不会的
521	OK, now you've done so well, we're going to try the really complicated argument.	好了,现在你做得很好, 我们要尝试非常复杂的争论。
522	OK, we'll do that for the rest of this session.	好吧,我们会做到这一点, 剩下的会议。
523	Here's the argument.	如下辩才.
524	OK, this is the one.	好,就是这个
525	By the end of this session, you will have analyzed this argument and seen how it works.	到本届会议结束时,你们将分析这一论点,看看它是如何运作的。
526	OK, firstly, identify the conclusion of this argument.	首先,确定这个论点的结论。
527	OK, right.	好吧,对了。
528	Who wants to?	谁愿意?
529	Who hasn't had a go?	谁没去?
530	Would you like to have a go?	你想试试吗?
531	Sorry, I was asking that lady there.	对不起,我问那位女士。
532	You deserve to get scratched.	你应该得到刮伤。
533	There's a bit more to it than that.	亦复有余无余.
534	That is part of the conclusion.	这是结论的一部分。
535	Well, it's not if you tickle her tummy, is it?	好吧,这不是如果你痒她的肚子,是吗?
536	It's if you.	是若尔时.
537	OK, somebody else.	好吧,别人。
538	Just she didn't want you to tickle her tummy.	只是她不希望你痒她的肚子。
539	OK, no, wrong.	好吧,不,错了。
540	Absolutely.	当然
541	俱 sentence句.
542	It's actually a conditional conclusion.	这实际上是有条件的结论.
543	If the poor thing did want you to tickle her tummy, you deserve to get scratched.	如果那个可怜的家伙要你抚摸她的肚子你就应该被刮伤
544	So it's not that you deserve to get scratched on its own,	所以你不该被自己刮伤
545	because you only deserve to get scratched if she did want you to tickle her tummy.	因为只要她要你抚摸她的肚子你就应该被刮伤
546	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
547	The whole thing is a conditional conclusion.	整件事都是有条件的结论.
548	And you said something like if you tickled her tummy,	你说过要是她肚子疼的话
549	and I wasn't sure whether you were leaving out the if she wanted you to tickle her tummy,	我不确定你是否忘了如果她要你抚摸她的肚子
550	because actually that's very important,	因为实际上这是非常重要的,
551	because there's a big difference between you tickled her tummy	因为你把她的肚子给痒了
552	and she wanted you to tickle her tummy, isn't there?	她希望你抚摸她的肚子,不是吗?
553	And for the purposes of this argument, that's actually quite an important difference.	而为了这个论点的目的,这实际上是一个相当重要的区别.
554	So the conclusion, and I said there was a nice large argument indicator right in front of it,	所以,结论,我说有一个很好的大辩论指标就在它的前面,
555	and here it is.	在这里,它是。
556	So if the poor thing did want you to tickle her tummy,	所以,如果可怜的东西想要你抚摸她的肚子,
557	you deserve to get scratched.	你应该得到刮伤。
558	That's the conclusion.	这就是结论。
559	OK, everyone happy with that?	好了,大家都满意吗?
560	Can you see that the fact that it's a conditional sentence,	你能看到这是有条件的句子吗?
561	a complex sentence, doesn't stop it from being a conclusion,	一个复杂的句子,并不能阻止它成为一个结论,
562	because a conclusion is what?	因为结论是什么?
563	Again?	又来了?
564	It's the claim for which you're arguing.	这是你争论的主张。
565	That's right.	没错
566	It's the statement that you're making and that you're backing up with reasons.	这是你所做的声明并且你支持的原因。
567	OK, what's the next thing we do, having identified the conclusion?	好吧,接下来我们做什么, 确定结论?
568	We identify the premises.	我们确定地点
569	OK.	摆
570	Identify the premises of that argument.	说明这一论点的前提。
571	Yes.	对
572	Yep.	对
573	Sometimes within an argument, you get sort of sub-arguments.	有时在争论中,你会得到某种子争论.
574	But don't worry about that.	但别担心
575	Treat it as a premise, not a conclusion.	把它当作一个前提,而不是一个结论.
576	OK, I think we're getting there.	好了,我想我们到了。
577	I'm going to reveal what I've got, and then you can tell me if you've got something else.	我要透露我有什么, 然后你可以告诉我如果你有别的东西。
578	OK, this is premise one.	好吧,这是前提一。
579	Well, perhaps she didn't want you to tickle her tummy,	好吧,也许她不希望你痒她的肚子,
580	or she didn't realise that's what you were going to do.	或者她不知道你会这么做
581	Now, I've just realised that I've misled you in something,	现在,我刚刚意识到我误导了你的东西,
582	because I've praised you for leaving out the argument indicators,	因为我称赞你漏掉了辩论指标,
583	whereas actually the only argument indicators I want you to leave out are the synths and the fours and so on.	而实际上我唯一想要你省略的争论指标是合成物和四合体等等。
584	This or here is making these two sentences into a complex sentence.	此或此处令此二句成复句.
585	So you should leave that in.	所以,你应该留在那里。
586	OK, so the premise there, you can see the structure of that, can't you?	好吧,所以前提在那里, 你可以看到的结构,不是吗?
587	P or Q.	P 或问.
588	So the or is part of it.	所以说,是其中的一部分。
589	No, you mustn't.	不,你不应该。
590	The only one you can actually separate like that is and,	你唯一能像那样分开的就是
591	because if you have P and Q, then just two separate premises will do.	因为如果你有P和Q, 那么只有两个不同的前提会做。
592	But if you have P or Q, do you see that the or is rather different, isn't it, logically?	但是如果你有P或Q, 你有没有看到, 或相当不同,不是吗,逻辑上?
593	You can't just have one sentence.	岂可一句而已.
594	If I say, look, here's a way of doing it, and we're taking, if I've got a pen, yes?	如果我说,你看,有一个方法做到这一点,我们正在采取, 如果我有一支笔,是吗?
595	Right, we're moving ahead a little bit here in what I'm going to tell you.	好吧,我们正向前走一步这里一点点,我要告诉你。
596	So if you start getting confused, just stop your ears up.	所以,如果你开始变得困惑, 只是停止你的耳朵。
597	When we eventually get round to evaluating arguments,	当我们最终开始评估争论时
598	what we try and do is to set out the conditions under which each premise is true,	我们尝试和做的是确定每个前提都真实存在的条件,
599	so we can then set out the conditions under which they're all true together.	这样我们就可以确定他们在一起的条件
600	OK, don't worry about how we do that at the moment.	好吧,不要担心我们如何做到这一点,现在。
601	It's just that's what we try and do.	这只是我们试图做的。
602	Now, if I look at P and Q, I can say, well, this is true.	现在,如果我看P和Q, 我可以说,这是真的。
603	This whole sentence is true, isn't it?	这整个句子是真的,不是吗?
604	If there's one world in which P is true and Q is true, is that right?	如果有一个世界,P是真实的,Q是真实的,那对不对?
605	Do you see intuitively that?	你看到直觉了吗?
606	So what is it for P and Q to be true?	那么P和Q的真谛是什么?
607	Well, it's for P to be true and Q to be true in the same world or in the same situation, if you prefer.	那么,这是P是真实的,Q是真实的在同一个世界或者在同样的情况,如果你喜欢。
608	So I can represent it just with one line and putting P and Q on the same line.	所以我只能用一条线来代表它并把P和Q放在同一条线上。
609	Whereas if I say P or Q, I can't do that, can I?	如果我说P或Q, 我不能做到这一点,不是吗?
610	P or Q is true just in case what?	P还是Q是真的,以防万一?
611	Yeah, either P is true or Q is true or sometimes both.	是的,要么P是真实的,要么Q是真实的,或者有时两者兼而有之.
612	So I'd have to draw two lines and put P on one line and Q on the other, wouldn't I, in order to say P or Q?	所以我得画两条线,把P放在一条线上,把Q放在另一条线上,是不是我,说P或Q?
613	So they have their different words, different logical words.	因此他们有不同的词,不同的逻辑词.
614	And you see how if I separate the P and Q in one premise, it doesn't really matter.	你看,如果我把P和Q分开一个前提,那并不重要。
615	Whereas if I separate the P or Q, it does matter because then I've only got one on each line.	如果我把P或Q分开,那就很重要了因为我每条线上只有一条
616	So I must keep them together.	所以我必须让他们在一起。
617	In fact, what I should do is keep them all together just because at this moment you don't know what the difference between and and or and so on is.	事实上,我应该做的就是把它们都放在一起, 只是因为在这个时刻,你不知道区别是什么,等等。
618	So any complex sentence, just keep them together.	所以,任何复杂的句子, 只是保持它们在一起。
619	OK, did anyone have something different from that other than just separating the two sentences?	好吧,除了把两句分开之外有没有人有别的东西?
620	And actually, you're separating the two sentences was because I misled you in the beginning.	实际上,你把这两句话分开是因为我一开始就误导了你。
621	So don't knock yourself for that.	所以,不要敲自己为此。
622	Well, think about what we're doing here.	好吧,想想我们在这里做什么。
623	Do you remember I said we've got to keep the meaning, the meaning has got to be the same, whatever else we do.	你还记得我说过我们必须保持意义, 意义必须是一样的, 不管我们做什么。
624	Now, this sentence is saying either this is true or this is true.	现在,这句话是说,要么这是事实,要么就是事实。
625	Is that right?	是吗?
626	OK, so if we separate them, so we've lost the or, we've just got this is true and this is true.	好吧,如果我们把它们分开, 所以,我们失去了或,我们刚刚得到了这个是真实的,这是真实的。
627	There are two independent centers.	有两个独立的中心。
628	I completely agree.	我完全同意你的观点。
629	I mean, it might be true that she did want you didn't want you to tickler and it might be true that she didn't realize that you were going to tickler.	我的意思是,这可能是真的,她确实希望你不希望你痒而且这可能是真的,她没有意识到你要去痒。
630	But what this sentence says is that either this or this.	但此句所说非此非此.
631	And that's what we have to get.	这就是我们必须得到的。
632	I mean, OK, so the premise of the argument is we start off with either this or this.	我的意思是,OK,所以辩论的前提是,我们从这个或这个开始。
633	Do you remember the first when we were doing the argument?	你还记得我们第一次吵架吗?
634	Well, look at P or Q.	看看P还是Q
635	P, sorry, not P, therefore Q.	P,对不起,不是P,所以,Q。
636	OK, do you remember that argument?	好吧,你还记得那个争论吗?
637	P or Q, not P, therefore Q.	P或Q,而非P,故为Q.
638	OK, OK, OK, now I'm not understanding you.	好吧,好吧,好吧, 现在我不明白你。
639	Why not?	为什么不呢?
640	But why is that a problem?	但为什么这是个问题?
641	Because remember here, the two sentences are completely independent of each other.	因为记住这里,两句是完全独立的.
642	We talked about it's if it's it's either sunny or rainy.	我们讨论过,如果是阳光或雨。
643	Now, that shouldn't give you the because we could say it's either sunny or windy.	现在,这不应该给你因为我们可以说是阳光或风。
644	If it's sunny, then it's not windy.	如果阳光灿烂,那就不是风
645	But we haven't said that if then is completely different from or if then is a different logical claim.	但是,我们没有说过,如果那样就完全不同,或者那样就是一个不同的逻辑主张.
646	Right.	对
647	No, no.	没有,没有。
648	I'm sure you're not the only person who's confused by this.	我敢肯定,你不是唯一的一个谁被这个困惑。
649	All this says here is either this is true or this is true.	这里只说这是事实还是事实
650	And this says this isn't true, therefore this must be.	这上面说这不是真的, 所以这一定是。
651	So listen to the logic again.	故复听其逻辑.
652	Either this or this.	无论这个还是这个
653	Sorry, I'll do it.	对不起,我来吧。
654	Either this or that.	无论是这个还是那个。
655	Not this, therefore that.	不是这个,是那个
656	And it doesn't matter what this or that is.	和它无关这或是什么。
657	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
658	So so here we said she didn't want you to tickle her.	所以我们在这里说她不希望你痒她。
659	Well, yeah, but yeah, but hang on.	嗯,是的,但是是的,但坚持住。
660	This is but nothing follows from this.	但这件事没有结果。
661	This is only one premise.	这只是一个前提。
662	We've got to get the whole argument before anything follows.	我们得在一切发生之前得到整个争论
663	And you don't have to be able to do that.	亦不须 do.
664	No, I was just using that to illustrate that the or can stand between two two independent sentences.	不,我只是用这个来说明这两句独立的句子之间
665	It doesn't matter what the sentences are.	何等为句.
666	Their content is irrelevant.	它们的内容无关紧要。
667	OK, if you still don't understand that, see me afterwards.	好吧,如果你还不明白, 之后见我。
668	Is anyone else still bothered by this?	还有谁对此感到困扰吗?
669	Put your hand up if you want me to go over that again.	把手举起来,如果你想我再重复一遍。
670	No.	没有
671	OK.	摆
672	See me afterwards if you still haven't got it.	等会儿见,如果你还没拿到
673	OK, does anyone have anything else for premise one than this other than having divided the two up?	除了把两者分开之外,还有别的东西可以做前提吗?
674	No.	没有
675	OK, good.	好吧,不错。
676	Premise two.	初标二.
677	If she didn't realize, then you obviously went about it in the wrong way.	如果她没意识到那你显然走错了路
678	Does anyone have something different for that?	有人有不同的东西吗?
679	No.	没有
680	Premise three.	初释三.
681	In that case, you deserve to get scratched unless you really thought she was such a perceptive cat that she'd understand woof woof meant roll over.	那样的话,你应该被刮伤除非你真的认为她很敏锐她会明白Woof Woof的意思是滚蛋
682	Sorry to say that again.	对不起,再说一遍。
683	Well, because remember that you're not evaluating the argument at this point.	好吧,因为记住,你没有评估这个论点在这一点上。
684	What you're doing is you're trying to capture the meaning of each premise.	你所做的是试图捕捉每个前提的意义.
685	If you left out in that case, you deserve to get scratched unless you so you just have unless you just have unless you really thought she was such a perceptive cat.	如果那样的话,你应该被刮伤除非你有,除非你真的觉得她很敏锐
686	Well, that's actually not even a sentence, is it?	那其实根本不是句子是吗?
687	In order to be a premise, it has to be a sentence.	以是定义须是句.
688	It might be a complex sentence, but it has to be a sentence.	可能是一个复杂的句子,但必须是句子.
689	Yeah.	对
690	Anyone have anything different there?	有人有什么不同吗?
691	No.	没有
692	Good.	不错
693	You're doing very well.	你表现得很好
694	Premise four.	初释四.
695	If you thought that you're an idiot, but you're not an idiot, you're just twisted.	如果你觉得自己是个白痴, 但你不是白痴, 你只是扭曲。
696	Anyone have anything different for that?	有谁有不同之处吗?
697	If you thought that you sorry.	如果你觉得对不起的话
698	What did you have?	你们有什么?
699	Okay.	摆
700	At this point, I actually sympathize with your having left that out and you'll see why in a minute.	此时此刻,我实际上同情你忘了这一点,你会明白为什么在一分钟内。
701	But you shouldn't have left it out at this point because it is actually in there.	但你不应该把它抛在一边因为其实它就在里面
702	So so you should put it in.	所以你应该放进去
703	What were you going to say?	你想说什么?
704	Okay.	摆
705	At the moment, we're not removing irrelevancies, but perhaps when we do, we'll take this out.	现在,我们不是去除不光彩, 但也许,当我们这样做,我们会把它拿出来。
706	But at the moment, we'll leave it in.	但是现在,我们会把它留在里面。
707	But but your intuition that it's irrelevant is is a good one, as you'll see in a minute.	但是,你的直觉是无关紧要的是一个好的,你会看到在一分钟。
708	Okay.	摆
709	So there's the argument set out logic book style as it actually stands at the moment.	因此,有一个论点规定了逻辑书的风格,其实它目前的状况。
710	But of course, we haven't finished at the moment because we need to remove all sorts of bits and pieces.	但是,当然,我们目前还没有完成,因为我们需要去除各种位点和片段.
711	So on your list of the steps to set out an argument logic book style, what's the third step?	所以,在你列出的设置论证逻辑书风格的步骤列表中,第三步是什么?
712	We've identified the premises and the conclusions.	我们已经确定了场地和结论
713	What do we do next?	接下来怎么办?
714	Sorry.	对不起
715	Right.	对
716	Actually, I'll tell you now there aren't any suppressed premises.	其实,我告诉你,现在没有任何被压制的房舍。
717	So so we don't have to worry with that here.	这样我们就不会担心了
718	What's the next step?	下一步怎么办?
719	Remove irrelevancies.	取消撤销。
720	Okay.	摆
721	Let me see how we've done that.	让我看看我们是如何做到的。
722	Okay.	摆
723	What we need to do is take each premise separately.	我们需要做的是把每个前提分开。
724	Now, the nice thing about having identified the premises and the conclusion separately is we can treat each one separately now.	现在,把房子和结论分开来, 不错的一点是,我们现在可以各自单独处理。
725	We don't have to do them all all at the same time.	我们不必同时做所有的事
726	And that that helps us.	这对我们有帮助。
727	So let's look at premise one and let's remove the irrelevancies from premise one.	因此,让我们看看前提一, 让我们去除不可逆转的前提一。
728	Just get rid of any words that are not contributing to what that sentence means.	只要删除任何没有帮助这句话的意思的话。
729	That are just bits of fluff, if you like.	如果你喜欢的话,那只是毛毛
730	Well, yes, that can go, can't it?	嗯,是的,这可以去,不是吗?
731	I mean, that doesn't do anything.	我的意思是,那没有做任何事情。
732	What else?	还有什么?
733	Anything else?	还有别的吗?
734	Perhaps.	也许吧
735	I think perhaps can go as well.	我想也许也可以去。
736	Yep.	对
737	Okay.	摆
738	There's one more word I'd get rid of virtually.	还有一个字我几乎可以删除。
739	Not or, no.	没有,或者,没有。
740	T.
741	Who said tummy?	谁说的肚子?
742	Yep.	对
743	You can get rid of tummy, can't you?	你可以摆脱肚子,不是吗?
744	So what you've got is she didn't want you to tickle her or she didn't realize that was what you were going to do.	所以,你得到了什么是她不希望你痒她或者她不知道这是你要去做的。
745	So here we are.	我们到了
746	There.	在这里。
747	Green.	绿色。
748	Is that green easier than red?	绿色比红色容易吗?
749	Okay.	摆
750	So if we get rid of well, perhaps and tummy, we've got she didn't want you to tickle her	所以,如果我们摆脱好,也许和肚子, 我们得到了她不想让你痒她
751	or she didn't realize that's what you were going to do.	否则她不知道你会这么做
752	Okay.	摆
753	Let's try premise two.	我们试试前提二
754	What have you got?	有什么发现?
755	Then and obviously.	很明显
756	If she didn't realize.	如果她没意识到的话
757	I'll leave the then in.	我会离开当时。
758	Yep.	对
759	But the obviously can go, can't it?	但显然可以去,不是吗?
760	The obviously is just a bit of, you know, whether it was obvious or not is completely	这显然只是一点点,你知道, 它是明显的与否是完全的
761	irrelevant.	无关紧要
762	It might not have been obvious.	这也许并不明显。
763	It wouldn't really matter, would it?	这不重要,不是吗?
764	Okay.	摆
765	So we take out the obviously.	┮и碞р硂
766	Next, premise three.	下一个,前提三。
767	You'd take out only really unless you really thought.	除非你真的想到,否则你只会出局
768	You can certainly take out really.	你当然可以出去
769	Yep.	对
770	Not in that case.	这样不行
771	Why not in that case?	为什么不呢?
772	Can anyone?	有人能吗?
773	Exactly.	没错
774	It refers, it says if this, if that is true, then something.	它提到,它说如果这个,如果这是真的,那么什么。
775	So in that case is really very important.	因此,在这种情况下,非常重要。
776	Okay.	摆
777	I'll show you what I'd take out.	我让你看看我要拿什么
778	I'd take out the lot.	我会拿掉所有的东西。
779	In that case, you deserve to get scratched.	这样的话,你应该被刮伤
780	Because actually, if you look at the fourth premise, which I'd also take out completely,	因为实际上,如果你看看第四个前提, 我也会完全地去掉,
781	if you thought that you're an idiot, but you're not an idiot, you're just twisted.	如果你觉得自己是个白痴但你不是白痴你只是扭曲
782	This is, this is just a little insult that somebody is putting into the argument in order	这是,这只是一个小侮辱,有人把辩论的顺序
783	to ram it home, isn't it?	把它挤回家,不是吗?
784	Oh, come on, you idiot.	哦,来吧,你这个白痴。
785	You can't not believe this, which means what?	你不能相信这一点, 这意味着什么?
786	Well, it means just this, doesn't it?	就是这个意思,不是吗?
787	If I say P and you're an idiot if you don't believe it, what am I saying?	如果我说P,你是一个白痴如果你不相信,我说什么?
788	Just on the whole, well, yes, I'm also saying you're an idiot if I put it that way, don't I?	总之,是的,我还说你是个白痴如果我这么说,不是吗?
789	But so premises four, premise four can go completely and premise three.	但是,所以前提四,前提四可以完全去前提三。
790	To see that, let's go back to the whole argument.	为了看到这一点,让我们回到整个争论。
791	Okay.	摆
792	And let me read it out to you because it's sometimes much easier.	让我读给你听,因为有时候容易得多。
793	If you ever find you're having trouble with an argument, try reading it out loud because that'll,	如果你发现你和争吵有矛盾就大声读出来因为那样会
794	the tone you put on it will give you much better idea of where you're going with the logic.	你在上面的语气可以让你更清楚地了解你的逻辑
795	So let's read it out.	故当诵之.
796	Well, perhaps she didn't want you to tickle her tummy or she didn't realize that's what she was going to do.	也许她不想你挠她的肚子或者她不知道她会这么做
797	If she didn't realize, then you obviously went about it in the wrong way.	如果她没意识到那你显然走错了路
798	In that case, you deserve to get scratched.	这样的话,你应该被刮伤
799	Well, unless you really thought she was such a perceptive cat that she'd understand woof woof meant roll over.	除非你真的认为她很敏锐她会明白Woof waof的意思是滚蛋
800	But if you thought that you're an idiot, but you're not an idiot, you're just twisted.	但如果你觉得自己是个白痴, 但你不是白痴, 你只是扭曲。
801	So if the poor thing did want you to tickle her tummy, you deserve to get scratched.	所以,如果可怜的东西真的想要你痒她的肚子, 你应该得到刮伤。
802	You see, this actually cancels itself out from here because you're saying let's look at the structure of it.	你看,这实际上取消了从这里因为你说,让我们看看它的结构。
803	P unless Q.	P,除非Q。 (中文(简体) ).
804	Okay, Q is you really thought she was such a perceptive cat that she'd understand woof woof meant roll over.	好吧,Q是你真的觉得她是一个如此敏锐的猫她会明白Woof Woof的意思是滚过来。
805	Okay, if you thought so, if Q, then you're an idiot.	好吧,如果你这么想,如果Q, 那么你是一个白痴。
806	If Q, then R, but not R.	如果Q,则R,但不R.
807	And you're just twisted is just an insult added on.	你只是被扭曲只是一个侮辱加在。
808	P unless Q, if Q, then R, but not R.	P,除非Q,如果Q,然后是R,但不是R.
809	Can you see how that all cancels each other out?	你能看到这一切如何取消彼此?
810	P unless Q, if Q, then R, but not R.	P,除非Q,如果Q,然后是R,但不是R.
811	So it all just becomes, but again, don't worry about the letters I've put in here.	所以一切都变成这样了, 但再说一遍,别担心我写的信。
812	Just do it in your own, try reading it out and see what really counts.	自己来,试着读出来看看真正重要的是什么
813	Okay, let's, so here's the argument with the irrelevancies.	好吧,让我们,所以这里的争论与不可逆转。
814	Oh, okay, one more thing, the conclusion.	哦,好吧,还有一件事,结论。
815	I've just taken out the tummy again because we took out the tummy from the first premise, so do it in the conclusion.	我刚刚再次取出肚子因为我们从第一个前提取出肚子, 所以在结论中做。
816	So here's the argument with the irrelevancies removed.	因此,这里的争论与取消的不特权。
817	And I hope you agree it starts to look much more simple, much easier to evaluate.	我希望你同意,它开始看起来简单得多,更容易评估。
818	She didn't want you to tickle her or she didn't realize that's what you were going to do.	她不想你抚摸她否则她不知道你会这么做
819	If she didn't realize, then you went about it in the wrong way.	如果她没意识到那你就走错了路
820	In that case, you deserve to get scratched.	这样的话,你应该被刮伤
821	So if the poor thing did want you to tickle her, you deserve to get scratched.	所以,如果可怜的东西想要你抚摸她, 你应该得到刮伤。
822	But let's continue.	但是,让我们继续。
823	What's the next step?	下一步怎么办?
824	Sorry, question first.	对不起,先提问
825	It could be a conclusion, but don't forget, anything could be a conclusion.	这可能是一个结论,但不要忘记,任何事都可以是一个结论.
826	A conclusion is just the role that something plays in an argument.	一个结论只是某事在争论中扮演的角色.
827	And in this argument, this is not playing the role of a conclusion.	而在这个论点中,这并没有起到结论的作用.
828	It is perhaps playing the role of a sub-conclusion, but this is the conclusion.	它也许正在发挥次级结论的作用,但这就是结论。
829	Do you see, again, remember that the conclusion is that for which you are arguing.	你是否再次看到,记住,你所争辩的结论。
830	And that's the only thing that makes it a conclusion.	而此唯一能令其成结.
831	But you're absolutely right, that could play the role of a conclusion.	但你绝对是对的, 这可以发挥一个结论的作用。
832	Okay, what's the next step?	好吧,下一步怎么办?
833	No?	是吗?
834	Remove inconsistent terms, okay, and cross-references.	删除不一致的术语,好吗,和交叉引用。
835	Okay, inconsistent terms.	好吧,不一致的术语。
836	What do we mean by inconsistent terms?	术语不一致是什么意思?
837	Well, if we go back to that argument that we were looking at earlier, okay, this one.	好吧,如果我们回到我们之前讨论的争论, 好吧,这个。
838	Do you see how people wanted to have another premise in there?	你看到人们有多想有一个前提在那里?
839	Something about industrial nations need to give emerging nations capital resources or whatever it was.	工业国家需要给予新兴国家资本资源,或者说它是什么。
840	If we look round to this one, if a newly emerging nation is to sustain its growth and it does not have capital resources,	如果我们看看这个,如果一个新兴国家要维持其增长,而它没有资本资源,
841	it will need help from industrial nations.	它需要工业国家的帮助。
842	What does this need help mean?	这需要帮助是什么意思?
843	It will need, what's the help that is implied here?	这需要什么帮助?
844	Capital resources.	资本资源。
845	So we're using two different terms for capital resources, aren't we?	所以我们用两个不同的术语资本资源,不是吗?
846	Here we're using capital resources and here we're using just help.	在这里,我们使用资本资源, 在这里,我们使用只是帮助。
847	But actually they mean the same thing, don't they?	但实际上他们的意思是一样的,不是吗?
848	So actually the way this argument, we can reveal the argument much more carefully by saying many newly emerging nations do not have capital resources.	因此,实际上,我们可以通过说许多新兴国家没有资本资源来更仔细地揭示这一论点。
849	Capital resources are necessary for sustained growth.	资本资源是持续增长的必要条件。
850	If a newly emerging nation is to sustain its growth and it does not have capital resources,	如果一个新兴国家要维持其增长,却没有资本资源,
851	it will need capital resources from industrial nations.	它需要来自工业国家的资本资源。
852	Many newly emerging nations will need capital resources from emerging nations.	许多新兴国家将需要新兴国家的资本资源。
853	Could you use pronouns?	你能用代词吗?
854	Can you use what, sorry?	你能用什么,对不起?
855	Pronouns, like them.	代言人,和他们一样.
856	Well you couldn't use them there, will it?	你不能在那里使用它们,是吗?
857	Many newly emerging nations will need, oh them, you mean capital resources, I see, I'm sorry.	很多新兴国家需要,哦,你是指资本资源,我明白了,我很抱歉。
858	No, well what you're aiming to do is to reveal the structure of the argument	不,你打算做的是揭示辩论的结构
859	and you do that by getting rid of as many things that are distracting you from the structure of the argument as you can.	并且你这样做,通过摆脱尽可能多的事情正在分散你从辩论的结构,你可以。
860	And one of the things that's distracting you here is the fact that two different words or phrases are used for the same thing.	令你分心的一件事,就是两个不同的词或短语用于同一事物。
861	So what you do is you change them so that you're using the same word throughout the argument.	所以,你所做的就是改变它们, 这样你在整个争论中都用同一个词。
862	Now you could just use, many newly emerging nations do not have help.	现在你可以使用,许多新兴国家没有帮助。
863	Help is necessary for sustained growth.	帮助是持续增长的必要条件。
864	I mean this suggests.	我的意思是这个暗示。
865	We shouldn't use help doesn't it okay?	我们不应该使用帮助对不对?
866	So let's use capital resources instead	不如用资本资源吧
867	Then is actually a pronoun that that you're on the whole you're trying to get rid of rather than put in so	那其实是一个代词,你正在整体上,你试图摆脱而不是放
868	I wouldn't use that but I see why you wanted to yeah	我不会用,但我明白你为什么想要
869	Okay, do you see what I mean about removing inconsistent terms and have I convinced you?	好吧,你明白我的意思移除不一致的术语我说服了你吗?
870	You were right about what?	你说得对什么?
871	So	这么说
872	You need to book so that should be capital resources	你需要订票,所以应该是资本资源
873	Yes, yes, you were right about that, but I hope I was right that that wasn't a suppressed premise	是的,是的,你是对的, 但我希望我是对的, 这不是一个被压制的前提
874	It's a matter of an inconsistent term needing to be removed or needing to be made consistent	这是一个前后不一致的名词问题,需要去除或需要使一致
875	So let's try it with this the argument.	因此,让我们试试这个争论。
876	We're looking at now.	我们现在在看
877	I've now forgotten which slide we were on	我现在忘了我们上哪张幻灯片了
878	Oh	瓳
879	Yeah, now I was just explaining what inconsistent terms are okay.	是啊,现在我只是解释哪些不一致的术语是好的。
880	That's what an inconsistent term is what about a cross-reference if we've got	这就是一个不一致的术语是什么如果我们有
881	Marianne always wears jeans on Friday.	玛丽安星期五总是穿牛仔裤
882	She is wearing jeans	她穿着牛仔裤
883	Got what the other	得到了其他的东西
884	What have we got there that we could and it's like an inconsistent term	我们得到了什么,我们可以, 这就像一个不一致的术语
885	This is the not the jeans, but she because she is referring to	这不是牛仔裤, 但她是因为她指的是
886	Marianne so either make both she that would be fine	玛丽安,要么让她俩都好
887	But but it might fall down elsewhere in the argument or make both Marianne	但它可能会掉落到其他地方的争论或者使玛丽安
888	So remove the she and and make it explicit that you mean Marianne.	所以把她带走并明确你是指玛丽安
889	So let's try that in this premise	所以,让我们试试这个前提
890	Now I'm just a hint here	现在我只是一个暗示
891	We're going to leave the she in here because throughout the argument.	我们要把她留在这因为整个争论
892	It's she isn't it	是她不对
893	We're never introduced to the cat's name.	我们从来没有介绍过猫的名字。
894	We don't know what her name is	我们不知道她叫什么
895	Nor is she referred to as the cat at any point or anything like that	在任何时刻,她都不被称为猫之类的
896	So in fact, this isn't an inconsistent term	所以实际上,这不是一个不一致的术语
897	It's consistent throughout even though it's exactly the sort of thing that you would usually be removing	尽管你平时会去掉的东西却始终如此
898	Okay, so she didn't want you to tickler or she didn't realize that's what you were going to do	好吧,所以她不希望你痒或者她没有意识到这是你打算做的
899	Anyone can see anything that wants you want to put put up your hand if you see something that you'd like to remove	谁都能看到任何你想举起手来的东西如果你看到一些你想摘的东西
900	She didn't want you to tickle her or she didn't realize you were going to tickle her that was what you were going to do	她不想你抚摸她否则她不知道你会抚摸她
901	Stands in for you were going to tickle her doesn't it?	挺身而出,因为你会痒她,不是吗?
902	We're not changing the meaning by by making those two terms consistent	我们不会改变意义通过使这两个词一致
903	We're just making explicit	我们只是明确
904	Something that in the original premise is left implicit and here it is	在最初的前提中隐含着的东西在这里
905	She didn't want you to tickler or she didn't realize that you were going to tickle her	她不想你痒或者她不知道你会痒她
906	I've left the that out, but that doesn't matter see okay.	我漏掉了,但没关系
907	Anyone have any problems with that	任何人都有问题
908	No, okay.	不,没关系。
909	Let's move on.	让我们继续前进。
910	What about premise two if she didn't realize then you went about it in the wrong way	假设二,如果她没意识到... ...那么你走错了路
911	Very nearly right the first bit was certainly right if she didn't realize you were going to tickle her	差一点就对了,如果她没意识到你会打她
912	Do you see you need to add this in because otherwise if you didn't if she didn't realize isn't actually a sentence is it?	你明白你需要加上这个吗? 否则如果你不知道她其实不是句子的话?
913	Until you add you were going to tickle her so you complete that sentence by adding that in what what about the second half?	直到你补充你要去痒她,所以你完成了句子加上,那下半部分呢?
914	Anyone have any ideas here?	有人知道吗?
915	Then you were going to tickle her in the wrong way	然后你会用错误的方式抚摸她
916	Yes, something like that keep it as similar as possible because all you're doing is trying to get rid of the complications	是的,类似的东西保持尽可能相似因为你所做的只是试图摆脱并发症
917	You're trying to make it as simple as possible	你想尽量简单
918	So as to reveal the structure of the arguments and you do that by getting rid of all the things that that	为了揭示这些争论的结构, 你这样做的方式是摆脱一切
919	Are just confusing you so if she didn't realize you were going to tickle her then you were going to tickle her in the wrong way	只是迷惑你所以如果她没意识到你会打她那你会打她
920	Okay, anyone any questions about that?	好吧,有人要问吗?
921	No good premise three good well done in that case	没有好的前提 3个好成绩
922	Refers back to the previous premise doesn't it and it says if you were going to tickler in the wrong way you deserve to get scratched	回溯到之前的前提,它不它说,如果你要去痒用错误的方式,你应该得到刮伤
923	There's two quite separate sentences aren't there you were going to tickle her in the wrong way	有两句很分别的句子,你不是想用错误的方式抚摸她
924	And she didn't realize you were going to tickle her now.	她没意识到你现在会抚摸她
925	Those are different sentences	这些是不同的句子
926	You mustn't conflate them because actually they matter to the argument is very much so	你不能把他们混为一谈因为其实他们和争论很重要
927	Okay, any other questions about premise three	好吧,任何其他问题关于前提三
928	No, let's move on.	不,让我们继续前进。
929	What about the conclusion?	那结论呢?
930	It's an easy one isn't it okay if she did want you to tickle her you deserve to get scratched	这很容易如果她真的要你抚摸她你就应该被刮伤
931	Okay, so we take out the poor thing and put in she	好,我们把可怜的东西拿出来放进去
932	Okay question	好吧,问题
933	Yes, it does	没错
934	Well if the poor cat wanted you to tickle her oh I see you think okay if she wanted you to tickle her	如果那只可怜的猫要你抚摸她我看你觉得如果她要你抚摸她的话
935	Okay, I see where you're going and it is a sentence	好吧,我知道你要去哪里,这是句句子
936	But you're wanting okay shall I tell you what you're doing and and I completely	但你想要的好,我告诉你你在做什么我完全
937	Sympathize with what you're doing and what's more you are not the only person in this room who's doing it	同情你正在做的事更何况你不是这个房间里唯一这样做的人
938	you're probably the only person who's got the courage to	或许你是唯一有勇气
939	Question me on it what you're doing is you're trying to put the logic in here	问我你在做什么你试图把逻辑在这里
940	Okay, you're you're trying to to make this you're trying to make it all follow	好吧,你试图使这个你试图使这一切遵循
941	So that it it makes sense as an argument and what you should be doing is just trying to identify what is said	所以,它有道理作为一个争论,你应该做什么只是试图识别说什么
942	Here what you want to put in is this I think so if she did want you to tickle her	你想放的就是这个如果她真的想要你抚摸她的话
943	But she went about it in the wrong way or something like that then you deserve to get scratched is that is that right?	但是她走错路了或者那样的话... ...你应该被刮伤是吗?
944	Because you know	因为你知道
945	But the but the conclude	但最后的结果
946	Yeah, you're wrong.	是啊,你错了。
947	Okay, that's	好吧,这是
948	That's all I'll say right now.	我现在就说这些
949	You're wrong	你错了
950	And what you should do is I have a look at the argument over the week	你该做的是,我看看这周的争论
951	And if you're still thinking that if you still don't see what I'm saying	如果你还在想如果你还不明白我在说什么
952	Come and see me next week and I'll explain it again.	下周来看我我再解释一遍
953	This will convince you	这能说服你
954	I'm going to reveal the structure of this argument by formalizing it and if that doesn't convince you nothing will	我要通过形式化来揭示这个论点的结构如果这不能说服你
955	Okay	还好
956	We're going to put it into	我们要把它投入
957	P's and Q's and it will be a revelation to you how putting it into P's and Q's will make it make much more sense	P's and Q's 这会给你一个启示如何将它投入到P's and Q's
958	Okay, what we've got to do is identify each of the constituent sentences of the argument and assign it a sentence letter	好吧,我们必须做的是确定每个组成句子并给它分配一个句子字母
959	Now have I gone no, okay.	现在,我走了没有,好吗。
960	I haven't done this.	我没有这样做。
961	Okay	还好
962	Let's look at premise one	让我们看看前提一
963	we've got to identify the constituent sentences of that premise and	我们必须确定这个前提的构成句子
964	Assign it a letter.	授记一函.
965	So just looking at premise one.	所以看一号前提
966	What are the constituent sentences?	组成判决是什么?
967	What's the first one?	第一个是什么?
968	She didn't	她没有
969	Want you to tickle her?	想要你抚摸她吗?
970	Okay, and the other one	好吧,另一个
971	she didn't	她没有
972	Realize	实现
973	You were only going to tickle her	你只是要抚摸她
974	Okay.	摆
975	Well here are two sentences.	这里有两句
976	Let's provide them with sentence letters	让我们给他们提供句子字母
977	I'd ask you which ones you wanted but I want you to choose certain ones	我想问你想要哪一个但我希望你选一些
978	So you can choose either P or Q and I'd rather and that P for this one good	所以你可以选择P或Q 我宁愿选择P
979	Okay, what about the next one?	好吧,下一个呢?
980	Q well done	成绩不错
981	Good choices I have to say okay.	不错的选择,我必须说好的。
982	So whenever we use the sentence letter P	所以,每当我们使用句子字母P
983	That that means that sentence.	这表示这句话。
984	It's just standing in for that sentence	它只是站在那里的句子
985	Okay, and whenever you use the sentence letter Q that just stands in for that sentence.	好吧,每当你使用句子字母Q 刚刚代表该句子。
986	Okay, it's dead simple.	好吧很简单
987	There's nothing	什么都没有
988	Magical about these things at all and the reason we use capital letters from this side this part of the alphabet	关于这些东西的神奇之处以及我们使用大写字母的原因
989	That's just conventional	这很传统
990	We if we use capital letters like FG, etc	我们用大写字母像FG等等
991	We tend to use them for other parts of the language and if we use lowercase letters like ABC	我们倾向于在语言的其他部分使用,如果我们使用小写字母,如ABC
992	That's for another part of language.	这是另一个语言部分。
993	So there is a conventions about which part of language you use for which sentence letters	因此,有一个公约关于哪一部分语言你使用的句子字母
994	So that's why I want you to use letters from here.	所以我要你用这里的信
995	Okay, so premise one	好吧,那么前提一
996	Has two constituent sentences	有两个组成句子
997	She didn't want you to tickle her and she didn't realize you were only going to tickle her and we've labeled them P and Q	她不想你抚摸她她不知道你只会抚摸她我们给他们贴上了P和Q的标签
998	Okay premise two.	好前提二
999	What are the constituent sentences in this letter this one?	这封信有什么组成句子?
1000	What's the first one?	第一个是什么?
1001	She didn't realize you're only going to tickle her.	她没意识到你只会打她
1002	Well, we've got that already haven't we so we don't need to put that down	好了,我们已经有了,我们没有所以我们不需要放下
1003	What about the other one?	另一个呢?
1004	You were going to tickle her in the wrong way.	你要用错误的方式抚摸她
1005	Okay, you were	好吧,你曾经
1006	Going to tickle her in the wrong way	要用错误的方式抚摸她
1007	Okay, it needs a sentence letter.	好吧,它需要一个句子字母。
1008	What should we have?	我们该吃什么?
1009	Oh good.	不错
1010	Yes.	对
1011	Well done	干得不错
1012	You've got the idea here.	你有这个想法。
1013	See you can formalize things dead easily	你看,你可以正式的东西死容易
1014	Okay	还好
1015	That's premise two, isn't it?	这是前提二,不是吗?
1016	Good premise three	好前提三
1017	Okay, you were going to tickle her in the wrong way	好吧,你本来想用错误的方式抚摸她
1018	That's that that's our again.	那又是我们的了
1019	You deserve to get scratched.	你应该得到刮伤。
1020	Okay, you	好吧,你这个
1021	deserve	应得的
1022	to get	获取
1023	scratched	刮伤
1024	What should we call that?	我们该怎么称呼?
1025	S	编号
1026	Good.	不错
1027	Okay and conclusion.	好吧,结论。
1028	So if she did want you to tickle her	所以,如果她真的想要你抚摸她
1029	Now that's interesting because up here we've got she didn't want you to tickle her now do it	现在有意思了因为上面有她不想你打她
1030	I'm going to put her outside the room	我要把她放在房间外面
1031	No	没有
1032	This is	这是
1033	It's very good that you question things because that's important	这很好,你质疑事情因为那很重要
1034	We won't need another sentence letter because what can we use instead?	我们不需要另一个句子字母,因为我们能用到什么?
1035	Not P can't we you don't you certainly don't need?	你不需要吗?
1036	P and not P because you've got that just in having P and the word and the logical word not	P而不是P 因为你有P 和字和逻辑字
1037	Okay, so if she did want you to tickle her you deserve to get scratched.	好吧,所以如果她真的想要你痒她,你应该得到刮伤。
1038	Do we need anything else?	我们还需要什么吗?
1039	That's s already exactly.	这已经很准确了
1040	So we're here	所以我们来了
1041	We've got all the sentences that make up the argument haven't we all the sentences that	我们所有的句子构成争论我们所有的句子
1042	Constitute the argument now.	现在组成争论。
1043	I need somebody to hold this please	我需要人来拿着这个
1044	Somebody come up and hold this for me	有人上来帮我拿着这个
1045	Okay, there we there.	好了,我们到了。
1046	We have an interpretation.	我们有解释
1047	That's what that's called an interpretation	这就是所谓的解释
1048	now premise one	现在的前提一
1049	What's the form of that there's a logical word in that that's holding together two sentences	什么样的形式有一个逻辑词在那里,它把两句
1050	What are the sentences and what are the logical words?	句子是什么,逻辑词是什么?
1051	P or Q good.	P还是Q好。
1052	That's premise one, isn't it?	这是前提一,不是吗?
1053	What's premise two?	前提二是什么?
1054	so if	因此,如果
1055	Is it Q?	是Q吗?
1056	She didn't realize okay if Q then not there for your confusing implication and entailment whoever that was	她不知道,如果Q不在那里... ...你含混不清的暗示...
1057	If Q then s was it ah	如果Q是S的话啊
1058	Okay, then the third	好,那第三个
1059	Premise if you were going to tickle her in the wrong way you deserve to get scratched if R	如果你是想用错误的方式抚摸她你应该得到刮伤,如果R
1060	then s and the conclusion is	然后S,结论是
1061	If not	如果没有
1062	She didn't want you if not P then	她不想要你,如果不是P的话
1063	No, where's the not?	不,哪里没有?
1064	Where's the not?	哪里没有?
1065	No, it's not wrong	不,没有错
1066	You'll be outside too in a minute.	你马上就要出去了
1067	I	一、导言
1068	There was no not no, I'm putting the	没有没有没有,我放
1069	hang on I'm putting the not in front of the P because we've got P was she didn't want you to tickle her and	坚持住,我把不在P前因为我们有P 是她不希望你痒她和
1070	The not here is if she did want you to tickle her	不在这里是如果她真的想要你抚摸她
1071	Okay, but this says you deserve to get scratched doesn't it and this says you deserve to get scratched	好吧,但这是说你应得的刮伤,不是吗? 这说明你应得的刮伤
1072	There's no not snuck in here	这里没有偷溜的
1073	I'm saying not P, but I'm not saying not s am I	我不是说P, 但我不是说S是I
1074	No, you don't	不,你没有
1075	Know because well, what you put actually if you use	因为如果用的话,你写了什么?
1076	If you you know	如果你知道的话
1077	This says if not P then s whoops.	这上面写着,如果不是P,那就叫
1078	No, that's	不,这是
1079	Okay, it's only the P. That's been negated not the s	好吧,这只是P。这被否定了,不是S
1080	Not the s	不是那个S
1081	Okay	还好
1082	You're getting me confused now.	你现在让我困惑了
1083	Hold on.	坚持住。
1084	We've got four minutes to go.	我们还有四分钟
1085	Let's finish	我们说完吧
1086	Okay, that's fine because actually no we might need that a minute stay there	好吧,没关系,因为实际上不,我们可能需要一分钟在那里停留。
1087	Okay, so this PQRS	好吧,所以这个PQRS
1088	And	还有
1089	Here's premise one.	这是前提一
1090	Oh, I was going to make you do it like this, but it's all right.	哦,我本来打算让你这样,但没关系。
1091	You've done it so	你这样做了
1092	Here so there's the whole argument, which is exactly what you've had there what you've got there	这里有整个争论, 正是你在那里,你得到了什么
1093	oops, I	欧,我
1094	Should have put a not there shouldn't I and I haven't but that's my mistake	不应该放在那里,我和我没有,但这是我的错误
1095	Okay, there's only a not there	好吧,只有一个不在那里
1096	She didn't want you to tickle her or she didn't realize you were going to tickler	她不想你抚摸她否则她不知道你会抚摸她
1097	Okay, that's a straightforward either or isn't it either?	好吧,这是一个直截了当要么还是不是?
1098	This is the case or that's the case	这是事实还是事实
1099	Then this says if she didn't realize that you were going to tickler then you were going to tickler in the wrong way now	那这上面写着如果她没意识到你会发痒那你现在会发痒
1100	Obviously if you like something's happened	显然如果你喜欢发生什么
1101	She scratched you hasn't she and and somebody said if she didn't realize you were going to tickle her then	她抓你,她没有,有人说如果她不知道你会痒她,那么
1102	Obviously you went about it in the wrong way so going about it gently push push push you you	显然你走错了路所以轻轻地推推你
1103	shoved your hand into her tummy and	把你的手塞进她的肚子里
1104	Scratched so if she didn't realize you were going to tickler then she and the implication there	所以如果她没意识到你会更痒她和那的暗示
1105	Is that if she had realized you wouldn't have got scratched is that right?	如果她意识到你不会被刮伤是吗?
1106	That's the implication there if she had realized you wouldn't have got scratched	这就是她的暗示如果她意识到你不会被刮伤
1107	Okay	还好
1108	No, we're not talking about wanting here at all	不,我们不是想在这里
1109	No, no, but the premises are separate the premises are completely separate we're looking at the meaning of each one separately	不,不,但房地是分开的房地是完全分开的我们正在研究每个地方的意义
1110	Okay, so this one the implication is if she had realized then then you wouldn't have got scratched	好吧,这个暗示是如果她意识到,那么你就不会被刮伤了
1111	If you're going to tickler in the wrong way you you deserve to get scratched	如果你想用错误的方式抓痒你应该得到抓伤
1112	Okay, so there's a question of dessert coming in here	好,有甜点问题来了
1113	And so the conclusion is if she did want you to tickle her and you went about it in the wrong way	所以结论是如果她真的想要你抚摸她而你走错了路
1114	Then you deserve to get scratched so the poor thing was longing for you to tickle her and	那你应该被刮伤所以可怜的东西渴望你抚摸她
1115	What she did when you did tickler was scratch you well?	你抽痒的时候她做了什么?
1116	Why did that happen because you went about it in the wrong way?	为什么是因为你走错了路?
1117	Have we got it?	拿到了吗?
1118	Right, I'm going to shut you up now	好,我要让你闭嘴
1119	Okay, let's I don't I don't want to leave on a note of confusion	好,我不想在混乱中离开
1120	the	联合国
1121	Important thing is that what we've done today is we've taken an argument that you looked at when and when you looked at it	重要的是我们今天所做的就是我们做了一个论点你看着它的时间和时间
1122	You weren't good	你不好吗?
1123	Didn't you okay?	你没事吧?
1124	Well, I said we're going to set it out logic book style.	好吧,我说我们要设置逻辑书的风格。
1125	All we're going to do is identify the argument	我们要做的就是找出证据
1126	We're going to analyze the argument reveal its structure	我们要分析这个论点揭示它的结构
1127	So what we've done is we've taken the argument.	所以,我们所做的是,我们采取了争论。
1128	We identified the conclusion of the argument.	我们确定了这一论点的结论。
1129	We all did that fairly easily	我们都做得很轻松
1130	We identified each premise.	我们确定了每个前提。
1131	We all did that fairly easily.	我们都这样做相当容易。
1132	Yes	对
1133	Okay, and we looked for suppressed premises, but I told you there weren't any so so we didn't bother with that one	好吧,我们找了被压制的场所, 但我告诉你没有,所以我们没有打扰到那个
1134	then we went through each premise and we removed inconsistent terms cross references and irrelevancies and	然后我们经过每一个前提, 我们删除了不一致的术语交叉的参考和不光彩和
1135	Revealed the arguments which might be a very bad argument for all we know	揭开那些对我们所知的可能非常糟糕的论点
1136	But but we revealed the argument that was there	但我们揭露了当时的争论
1137	What we didn't do is try and impose the argument	我们没有做的是把争论强加于人
1138	We would have made because it would have been a better one	我们本来会做的因为那会更好
1139	On the argument that we were trying to analyze.	关于我们试图分析的论点。
1140	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
1141	So all we've done is revealed the arguments here	所以,我们所做的一切揭示在这里的争论
1142	We've revealed the structure.	我们揭示了这个结构
1143	We've even got it down to P's Q's R's and S's	我们甚至把它降到了P的Q的R的和S的
1144	now what you should do for next week is take one of the arguments that you found this week and	现在,你应该做的是下周你发现的一个论点
1145	Try and do that and an awful lot of that's going to be removing	试试看,还有很多东西要清除
1146	Irrelevancies cross references and things like that and adding suppressed premises	各种不切实际的参考文献和诸如此类的东西,
1147	But it'll give you practice in doing it and don't forget	但它会给你练习做到这一点,不要忘记
1148	This is the important thing you can apply this methodology either to somebody else's arguments	这很重要,你可以把这个方法应用到别人的论点上
1149	which is what we've been doing here and what you will do if you look at arguments from the newspaper or	这就是我们一直在这里做什么如果你看看报纸上的论点
1150	You can apply it to your own	你可以把它应用到自己的身上
1151	Arguments and you think of something for which you often argue climate change or something like that or I don't know	争论和你想的东西你经常争论气候变化或类似的东西我不知道
1152	What's that	这是什么
1153	Okay, that's a good one.	好吧,这是一个很好的。
1154	That'll do.	这样就行了
1155	Oh, they anyway find something for which you like to argue in the pub	哦,不管怎样,他们找到的东西你喜欢在酒吧争论
1156	Write down your conclusion and write down your premises and try and make the arguments the argument you actually	写下你的结论写下你的前提试着把辩论做你实际上的论点
1157	Give	给
1158	So that then when we start evaluating arguments, we can look at it	这样,当我们开始评估论证,我们可以看看它
1159	but you will have identified your own argument and set it out logic book style because	但你会找出自己的论点并把它逻辑书风格,因为
1160	people often don't do that with their own arguments and therefore don't see that they're missing out a huge premise or that	人们常常不这样做用他们自己的论据, 因此,不要看到他们错过了一个巨大的前提或者
1161	This is happening or that's happening or whatever	这正在发生或发生什么
1162	Okay	还好
1163	So if your homework for this week either take the arguments you found last week and set them out logic book style or choose a client	所以如果你这周的功课要么接受你上周找到的论据提出逻辑书的风格要么选择客户端
1164	Claim you'd like to make and see if you can set it out as an argument logic book style	声称你愿意做和看看你是否可以把它作为一个论证逻辑书风格
1165	Okay	还好
1166	Cool.	凉爽。
1167	I'm exhausted	我筋疲力尽了
1168	Ha ha ha ha	呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵呵

该视频共有字幕 1172 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

P5 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p05 4. 4.怎么样才是好的论证？正确的真实的. (P5)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p05 4. 4.怎么样才是好的论证？正确的真实的. (P5)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 52:59

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	OK, here we are at week four.	好了,我们到了第四个星期了
0:02	Well done for staying with us so far.	和我们呆在一起做的很好
0:04	This week we're going to be looking at how to evaluate arguments,	这周我们将会研究如何评价争论
0:07	how to tell whether an argument is a good one or a bad one,	如何分辨争辩是好是坏,
0:10	and we'll start with inductive arguments.	我们先从诱导性辩论开始
0:14	Right, let's get started today.	好了,今天开始吧
0:17	Last week we learnt how to analyse arguments,	上周我们学会了如何分析争论
0:20	and what I meant by that was how to identify them	我指的是如何识别他们
0:23	and how to set them out logic book style.	和如何设置它们逻辑书风格。
0:26	I gave you six steps to analysing an argument,	我给了你六个步骤来分析一个争论,

展开字幕全文（833 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	OK, here we are at week four.	好了,我们到了第四个星期了
2	Well done for staying with us so far.	和我们呆在一起做的很好
3	This week we're going to be looking at how to evaluate arguments,	这周我们将会研究如何评价争论
4	how to tell whether an argument is a good one or a bad one,	如何分辨争辩是好是坏,
5	and we'll start with inductive arguments.	我们先从诱导性辩论开始
6	Right, let's get started today.	好了,今天开始吧
7	Last week we learnt how to analyse arguments,	上周我们学会了如何分析争论
8	and what I meant by that was how to identify them	我指的是如何识别他们
9	and how to set them out logic book style.	和如何设置它们逻辑书风格。
10	I gave you six steps to analysing an argument,	我给了你六个步骤来分析一个争论,
11	and these are the only steps.	这是唯一的步骤。
12	Another thing that's become clear to me from emails	还有一件事我从邮件里明白
13	and questions I've had this week is that a lot of people	这周我遇到的问题是很多人
14	are trying to evaluate an argument,	试图评估一个论点,
15	to say whether it's a good argument or a bad argument,	无论是好争论还是坏争论,
16	as they try and analyse it.	他们试图分析它。
17	Well, don't, because you'll always be led astray	好吧,不要,因为你会永远被引导错误
18	if you try to do that,	如果你试图做到这一点,
19	especially with a complicated argument	特别是一个复杂的争论
20	like the one we looked at last week.	就像我们上周看到的一样
21	So follow just these steps.	所以跟着这些步骤走
22	Don't do anything else to the argument.	不作别论.
23	Don't say, I think the conclusion shouldn't have a knot in it here,	不要说,我认为结论不应该有一个结在这里,
24	and take the knot out.	并取出结。
25	Knots are really very important,	鼻孔真的很重要,
26	and they shouldn't be added in either if they're not there.	如果它们不在也不应该加进去
27	So just follow these steps.	所以,只是遵循这些步骤。
28	That's all you need to do.	这就是你需要做的。
29	I'm not suggesting it's easy.	我并不是说这很容易
30	In fact, this is the hardest thing you'll ever do in logic.	事实上,这是你逻辑上最难做到的事
31	Computers can't do this.	电脑不能这样
32	Only we can do this.	只有我们能做到这一点。
33	A computer can evaluate arguments very easily	电脑很容易评估参数
34	by appeal to just a very simple algorithm,	利用简单的算法
35	but what it can't do is translate an argument in English	但它不能做的是用英语翻译一个论点
36	into a formal language.	成为正式语言。
37	Hopeless, computers can't do that,	无望,计算机不能做到这一点,
38	or at least not unless they're very, very, very simple.	除非他们非常非常非常简单
39	So those are the steps that you must take	所以,这是你必须采取的步骤
40	to analyse arguments,	分析各种论点,
41	and don't try and evaluate them at the same time.	不要同时尝试评估它们。
42	Okay, we did see that although we needed to paraphrase arguments	好吧,我们确实看到了,虽然我们需要解释的论点
43	in order to complete these steps,	为了完成这些步骤,
44	in other words, we had to add in things that,	换句话说,我们不得不说,
45	I mean, instead of it, we put she, or something like that,	我的意思是,不是它,我们放她, 或者类似的东西,
46	or that wasn't a good example,	或者这不是个好例子
47	but instead of it, it was tried to tickle him,	而不是它,它试图痒他,
48	or do you remember?	还是你还记得?
49	So we had to paraphrase arguments to complete these steps,	所以我们不得不解释论点来完成这些步骤,
50	but by paraphrase, I just mean put what's there in different words,	但是用句子来说,我的意思是用不同的词来表达
51	not change the meaning of anything,	不改变任何事物的意义,
52	and certainly don't add in any meanings	绝不增加任何迹象,
53	or take away any meanings.	或夺走任何意义。
54	Paraphrase is just changing the words	句子只是换词而已
55	so that the argument structure becomes clearer.	以便论证结构更加清晰。
56	Do you see the difference?	你看到区别了吗?
57	And again, you'll probably need a bit of practice	再说一遍,你可能需要练习一下
58	before that comes easily,	在那容易发生之前
59	because it really is a temptation to evaluate the argument	因为这真的是一种诱惑来评价争论
60	and to change its meaning	改变其意义
61	if you think it would be clearer	如果你认为会更清晰
62	if so-and-so said this rather than that.	如果是这样说而不是那样说
63	But try to avoid that,	但尽量避免,
64	because what you're trying to do	因为你想做的事
65	is identify the arguments that somebody else is making,	找出别人提出的论点,
66	not the argument that you would make	而不是你所说的
67	if you were in his position, okay?	如果你是在他的位置,好吗?
68	Because the point about analyzing arguments	因为分析论据的意义
69	is in the hope that you might learn something,	希望你们能学到点什么
70	and you won't do that if you're imposing your own grid	如果你把自己的网格强加于人你就不会这么做
71	of understanding onto someone else's argument.	理解别人的论点
72	Okay, so paraphrase, but don't change the meaning.	好吧,所以解释, 但不要改变意义。
73	We also saw that it's necessary to bring to bear	我们还看到,它的必要性来承受
74	our understanding of the argument.	我们对这个论点的理解。
75	For example, do you remember the suppressed premises	比如,你还记得被压制的建筑吗?
76	that we added last week?	我们上周加的?
77	We had quite a tussle with some of them, didn't we?	我们和其中一些人有过一段很愉快的旅程不是吗?
78	Some of the things that we thought	一些东西,我们想
79	might be suppressed premises	可能会被查封
80	turned out actually to be a matter of inconsistent terms	原来是前后矛盾的
81	or something like that.	或者类似的东西。
82	So we have to bring to bear our understanding of the argument	所以我们要让大家明白
83	and what follows from that.	接下来会发生什么
84	But don't read into the argument	但不要读到争论
85	anything that isn't actually there.	任何没有真正存在的东西。
86	If a suppressed premise is there,	如果有一个被压制的前提在那里,
87	it's usually pretty clear	通常说得很清楚
88	that that's a suppressed premise of the argument.	这是争论中被压制的前提
89	It's a premise that ought to be there, but isn't.	这是一个前提应该在那里,但不是。
90	So all you're doing is making explicit	所以,你所做的只是明确
91	something that's already there implicitly.	某种已经隐含的东西
92	Okay, I think we're...	好吧,我想我们...
93	Okay, and I've just said it's extremely important	好,我刚说这很重要
94	in analyzing an argument not to evaluate it.	分析一个不评估它的论点。
95	First you identify it, then you evaluate it.	先确认一下然后评估一下
96	Okay, any questions about all that	好吧,任何关于这一切的问题
97	before I move on to today?	在我开始今天之前?
98	No.	没有
99	Okay.	摆
100	Let's move on to today.	今往前说.
101	What we're going to do today is to start learning	我们今天要做的是开始学习
102	how to evaluate arguments.	如何评价论据。
103	Now, today I've got down as starting with validity and truth,	今天,我从有效性和真相开始
104	looking at the distinction between them.	看他们之间的区别
105	But I've decided instead to start with induction	但我决定从上岗开始
106	and then go on to validity and truth next week	然后在下周继续说真话
107	and then look at deductive arguments	,然后看扣除性论据
108	and the evaluation of them in the final week.	并在最后一周对他们进行评估。
109	So we're going to deal with induction this week.	因此,我们将处理本周上岗。
110	Oh, okay.	哦,还好。
111	Oh, I've done it now.	哦,我已经做到了。
112	I was going to ask you to tell me what an inductive argument was,	我本来想请你告诉我什么是诱导性的辩论,
113	but there we are.	但是我们到了。
114	Okay, you knew this anyway, didn't you?	好吧,你也知道这一点,不是吗?
115	Yes, good.	是的,不错。
116	Okay, there you go.	好吧,给你。
117	Fantastic.	厉害
118	Inductive arguments are such that the truth of their premises	引人入胜的论据是他们前提的真实性
119	makes the truth of their conclusion more or less likely.	让结论的真相或多或少都有可能
120	Okay, and if you remember, we looked at two examples in the first place.	好吧,如果你记得, 我们首先看了两个例子。
121	We looked at the sun's rising.	我们看着太阳升起
122	The sun has risen every day in the history of the world.	世界历史上,太阳每天都升起.
123	Therefore, the sun will rise tomorrow.	因此,明天太阳会升起。
124	And every time you see Marianne, she's been wearing earrings.	每次你见到玛丽安她都戴耳环
125	So next time you see her, she'll be wearing earrings.	所以下次你见到她她会戴耳环
126	I'm going to leave them off next week, if I remember.	如果我记得的话,我下星期会离开他们
127	All inductive arguments rely on the principle of the uniformity of nature,	所有引证论点都依据自然统一的原则,
128	as Hume called it, David Hume called it.	正如休姆所说的,大卫休姆称之为.
129	And the only arguments for the principle of the uniformity of nature itself	而自然本身统一原则的唯一论据
130	are themselves inductive.	本身是诱导性的。
131	So it looks as if any argument you offer for induction	所以看起来你对上岗有什么意见
132	is going to be circular and based on induction itself.	这将是循环的,基于感应本身。
133	And this is a real problem.	这是一个真正的问题。
134	People would love to be able to justify the principle of the uniformity of nature	人们愿意为自然统一的原则辩护
135	to say why we should believe that the future will be like the past.	说为什么我们应该相信未来会像过去一样
136	But no one's conclusively succeeded.	但最终没有人成功.
137	There's reams and reams and reams of books and papers written on this problem.	也有关于这个问题的书和论文的复刻本和复刻本.
138	And there are lots of theories about it,	有很多关于它的理论,
139	but there's no theory on which everyone would converge yet.	但还没有一个理论,每个人都会一致。
140	OK, different types of inductive argument.	好吧,不同类型的诱导性论点。
141	Inductive generalisations, causal generalisations,	诱导性概括,因果性概括,
142	arguments from analogy and arguments from authority.	从类推和权威角度提出的论点。
143	We're going to have a look at each of these separately	我们要分别看这些东西
144	and look at how to evaluate them.	看看如何评价它们。
145	So by how to evaluate, how to tell whether they're good arguments or bad arguments.	因此,通过如何评价,如何辨别它们是好辩还是坏辩.
146	Because remember, inductive arguments are not,	因为记住,诱导性的论点不是,
147	it's not a matter of either or with inductive arguments.	这不是一个问题或与诱导性的论点。
148	They're either strong or weak.	或强或弱.
149	OK, so there's a gradation.	好吧,所以有一个等级。
150	It's a matter of degree as to how good an inductive argument is.	如何是引法辩才之妙,是程度问题.
151	OK, let's start with inductive generalisations.	好吧,让我们开始诱导性概括。
152	And what I mean by this is that the premise identifies the characteristic	我的意思是,前提识别特征
153	of a sample of the population, of a population,	人口样本,人口,
154	and the conclusion extrapolates that characteristic to the rest of the population.	并且结论将这一特征推向其他人口。
155	And all inductive arguments are actually a form of this, of inductive generalisation.	并且所有的引论其实都是这种形式,即引论的概括.
156	So in learning how to evaluate inductive generalisations,	因此,在学习如何评估引力概括,
157	you can apply everything you learn to other types of inductive generalisation.	您可以将所学的一切应用到其他类型的诱导概括中。
158	But let's have a look at them generally.	但是,让我们来看看它们的总体。
159	OK, here are two examples.	好吧,这里有两个例子。
160	So OK, looking first at this one, what's the population that we're looking at here?	那么,首先看这一个, 什么是人口,我们正在看这里?
161	So do you remember I said the premise points to a sample of a population	你还记得我说的前提吗? 指一个样本
162	and the conclusion extrapolates to the rest of the population.	而结论则推断为其他人口.
163	So what do I mean by the population in this case?	那么,我是什么意思人口在这种情况下?
164	Voters, exactly, that's right.	选民,没错,没错。
165	So we're saying here that 60% of the voters have been sampled	因此,我们在这里说,60%的选民已经抽样
166	and that 60% said they'd vote for Mr.	而60%的人说他们会投票支持先生。
167	Many Promise.	很多承诺。
168	And we're extrapolating from that to therefore,	因此我们推断
169	actually there's a suppressed premise here, isn't there?	实际上这里有一个被压制的前提,不是吗?
170	Or there's something we could add in here.	或者我们可以在这里补充一些东西。
171	Well, no, we'll move on to that in a minute.	好吧,不,我们会继续在一分钟。
172	We're sort of assuming, aren't we, that 60% of the population as a whole	我们假设,是不是, 60%的人口作为一个整体。
173	would be enough for him to win.	足以让他赢
174	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
175	Because that's implied by this, isn't it?	因为这是隐含的,不是吗?
176	Rather than actually stated.	而不是实际说。
177	OK, and then the other one we've got here, what's the sample?	好吧,然后另一个我们这里, 什么样本?
178	Oh, sorry, what's the population here?	哦,对不起,这里的人口是多少?
179	One more.	再来一次
180	BT电话
181	Yeah, calls to BT.	对,打给BT
182	So the premise says whenever I've tried to ring BT,	因此,前提说,每当我试图拨BT,
183	whenever I've tried to make calls to BT, it's taken me hours.	每当我试图打给BT, 它花了我几个小时。
184	And I'm extrapolating to that for that to actually,	我推算到这一点实际上,
185	it's calls by me, actually, isn't it?	其实是我打来的对吧?
186	Rather than calls by calls generally.	而不是一般的打电话。
187	So I'm extrapolating from my past experience to my future experience.	所以我从我过去的经验中推断出未来的经验.
188	Correctly.	没错
189	OK, so what I want you is to have a look at each of these arguments,	好吧,所以我要你看看这些论点,
190	or you can choose just one of them if you want to do it more slowly.	或者你可以选择其中之一如果你想做慢一点。
191	And ask yourself, write down the questions to which you would need answers	问问你自己,写下你需要回答的问题
192	in order to decide whether these are good arguments.	以便决定这些是好的论点。
193	And then we'll go through them together.	然后我们一起通过他们。
194	So have a look yourself and just think about these questions	你自己看看,想想这些问题
195	and think about what you would ask in order to satisfy yourself	想想你想问什么满足自己
196	that these were good arguments.	这些是很好的论据。
197	OK, anyone want to give me examples of the sort of questions you would ask?	好吧,谁想举个例子来说明你会问什么问题?
198	OK, if the electorate was just 10 people,	好吧如果选民只有十个人
199	why would that help you evaluate the argument?	为什么那会帮助你评估争论?
200	Is it really the population, the number of the population you want,	这是真的人口, 数量,你想要的人口,
201	or what else might it be?	或者还有什么可能呢?
202	You might want to know the size of the sample.	你也许想知道样本的大小
203	Yes, I thought you might.	是的,我想你会的。
204	Because if you've got 10 people only were in the sample	因为如果你有10个人在样本中
205	and yet there are a million people in the population,	然而,人口却有100万,
206	then the sample just isn't big enough, is it?	那样本不够大是吗?
207	Have you got another question?	你有另一个问题吗?
208	Is it implicit in your word voters?	你的话里有暗示吗?
209	No, it isn't implicit in the word voters.	不,这不是隐含在选民一词。
210	You need to know how many voters actually vote.	你需要知道有多少选民实际投票.
211	Yes, one of the things you would certainly want to consider here	是的,你肯定想考虑的一件事
212	is that the voters' sample said that they would vote for whatever his name is,	选民的样本说他们会投票支持他的名字,
213	but actually won't vote for him.	但实际上不会投给他
214	Or may not vote at all.	或终不得投.
215	Yes, I mean either way it wouldn't make much difference.	是的,我的意思是无论哪种方式它不会有什么区别。
216	So, yes, I don't think that's...	所以,是的,我不认为...
217	You can't say whether he'd win.	你不能说他会不会赢
218	Yes, that's a bit of background information that you would bring to bear	是的,这是一个有点背景资料,你会得到
219	on this particular argument.	关于这一具体论点。
220	Something you know about voters,	你知道一些关于选民的事
221	which show that you really have to know a bit more about...	这说明你必须多了解一些...
222	Well, I expect there's a number by which they determine	嗯,我期望有一个数字他们决定
223	how many are likely to actually say...	有多少人可能会说...
224	I don't know.	师曰.
225	Yes, you'd certainly need to know whether they were telling the truth.	是的,你当然需要知道他们说的是真的。
226	Yes, OK.	是的,还好。
227	OK, it's certainly the case that Mr.	好吧,这是肯定的情况,先生。
228	Many Promise is not likely to win	许多承诺不可能赢
229	if he's not going to stand, even if 60% of the voters...	如果他不站立, 即使60%的选民...
230	So actually that's quite a good counter-example, isn't it?	所以,其实这是一个很好的反例,不是吗?
231	A case where the premise would be true,	如果假设是真的,
232	but the conclusion would have to be false.	但结论必须是假的
233	That is quite a good counter-example to that.	这是一个很好的反例。
234	If you've got a situation where the voters really did want to vote for whoever it was,	如果选民真的想投给谁的话
235	but he wasn't going to stand.	但他不会站着的
236	Yes, I like that one.	是的我喜欢这个
237	Another one here.	再来一个
238	Good.	不错
239	You'd want to know whether the sample is representative, wouldn't you?	你想知道样本是否具有代表性吧?
240	Because if the only people they asked were males,	因为如果他们要求的只有男性
241	then who knows what women are going to do.	谁知道女人会怎么做呢?
242	Or if they're all under 24, or if they're all black, or if they're all whatever.	或皆24岁以下,或皆黑色,或无所不至.
243	You need to know that the sample chosen is representative of the population as a whole.	你需要知道所选的样本代表整个人口.
244	Yes, OK.	是的,还好。
245	So if you have something like the radio,	所以如果你有类似收音机的东西
246	there was a radio programme, wasn't there, that was taking votes for something rather,	有一个电台节目,是不是在那里, 那是投票某事,
247	and a lot of people...	还有很多人...
248	So, I mean, actually what you want to do is you want to ask whether the premise here is true at all.	所以,我的意思是,实际上你想做的是, 你想知道这里的前提是否是真的。
249	Yes, definitely.	是的,当然。
250	Yes, because it may be that 60% of the voters said that they would vote for Mr Brown,	是的,因为可能是60%的选民说他们会投票支持布朗先生,
251	but then something dreadful happens,	但后来发生了可怕的事
252	and it's certainly not the case that if you sampled them again just before the election,	如果你在选举前再次采样肯定不是那样的
253	they would still say,	他们仍然会说,
254	good, you're coming up with all sorts of things I haven't got myself here.	好,你来各种事情我没有得到自己在这里。
255	This is brilliant.	这是辉煌的。
256	Who did the sampling?	谁做的取样?
257	Yep, that would be a very good thing.	是的,这将是一个非常好的事情。
258	And again, I mean, that's another example of is the premise true?	再说一遍,这就是另一个例子前提是真的吗?
259	Because if the person saying that 60% of the voters said that they would vote for him,	因为如果说60%的选民说他们会投给他
260	if they're all apparatchiks for Mr Many Promise who want to make him feel good before the election,	如果他们都喜欢很多承诺先生在选举前让他感觉好一点
261	you might question the premise itself, mightn't you?	你可能会质疑前提本身,不是吗?
262	OK, what about this one?	好吧,那这个呢?
263	Or is there anything that would be added to this one that we haven't already considered?	还是我们还没考虑过还要加点什么?
264	Gentleman there.	先生们
265	When I think is perfectly good,	当我觉得很好的时候
266	because if I've been trying to ring BT at two o'clock in the morning,	因为如果我在凌晨2点打BT
267	it might be perfect.	这可能是完美的。
268	You know, yes, it may have taken hours,	你知道,是的, 它可能已经花了几个小时,
269	but were I to ring at 10 o'clock in the morning,	但是早上十点我打电话
270	it might be different.	可能不一样
271	I'm assuming they don't answer the phone at two o'clock in the morning.	我猜他们早上两点不接电话
272	OK, it's certainly reasonable to ask whether it's just me.	好吧,这当然合理问它是不是只有我。
273	Yes, I mean, there might be something about my particular telephone number	是的,我的意思是,也许有什么关于我的具体电话号码
274	that whenever I ring BT,	每当我打BT,
275	there's something that says don't answer this one or something like that.	有些东西说不要回答这个或者什么
276	But as the conclusion is that when I ring BT,	但结论是当我按BT
277	do you see what I mean?	你明白我的意思吗?
278	Again, the way I've set this up,	再说一遍,我这样安排的
279	the population here is calls that I make to BT rather than calls that anyone makes to BT.	这里的人是我给BT的电话而不是任何人给BT的电话
280	Yes, I might have only made one or two.	是的,我可能只做了一两个。
281	Again, that's structurally the same as when we said here,	再说一遍结构上和我们在这里说的一样
282	how many people did we sample in the population	我们抽样调查了多少人
283	and what percentage of the population is that?	人口的百分比是多少?
284	And you're suggesting exactly the same thing here quite properly.	你在这里的建议完全一样,非常正确。
285	If I've only tried to ring once or twice,	如果我只打了一两次电话
286	then is that really a big enough sample?	那这个样本真的够大了吗?
287	Good.	不错
288	Again, you're questioning whether that premise is true.	你又在质疑这个前提是否正确
289	I mean, maybe I'm just very bad at calculating time.	我的意思是,也许我只是非常糟糕的计算时间。
290	Maybe I'm one of these people who's very keen to get somebody to answer my phone call immediately.	也许我是其中之一谁非常热衷于找人接我的电话立即。
291	And if it takes 30 seconds, then I get very irritated and think it's ours.	如果需要30秒,那么我就会非常烦恼,觉得这是我们的。
292	OK, you would have to assume, wouldn't it, that it was the same part of BT?	好吧,你不得不假设, 是不是, 这是BT的相同部分?
293	Again, because otherwise you'd get an equivocation, wouldn't you?	再说一次否则你就会变得模棱两可不是吗
294	BT here wouldn't mean the same as BT here.	这儿的BT和这里的BT不一样
295	An equivocation, by the way, is an argument in which you use the same word with two different meanings.	顺便提一句,一个模棱两可的争论就是用两个不同含义的同一个词.
296	OK, so if you think of the word bank, it could mean financial institution.	好吧,所以如果你想到银行这个词, 它可能指金融机构。
297	It could mean an action of an aeroplane or it can mean the side of a river.	可能指飞机的动作,也可能指河流的一侧.
298	And if in an argument you use this in all three of those meanings,	如果你在争论中用这三种含义
299	you could imagine an argument that would look good, but as a matter of fact, wouldn't work at all.	你可以想象一个看起来不错的争论, 但事实上,这根本行不通。
300	And that's as a result of equivocation.	而这是因模棱两可的结果。
301	You're equivocating on the word bank.	你对"银行"一词的描述相当
302	So if I were equivocating here on the word BT or the letters BT, my conclusion might not follow from my premises.	因此,如果我在这里对BT一词或字母BT等同,我的结论可能不会从我的前提中得出。
303	OK, very good.	好吧,很不错。
304	That really is good.	这真的很好。
305	I think it's very impressive.	我觉得很令人印象深刻
306	You'll see as I go through the things that I'm going to list that you've said just about all of them.	你会看到我所要列举的你刚刚提到的那些事情
307	OK, firstly, is that just about all of them?	好吧,首先,这是所有的人吗?
308	There's one I think I've got that you haven't.	我想有一个我得到了你没有。
309	Is the premise true?	前提是真的吗?
310	OK, we've got 60 percent of the sample said that they would vote for Mr. Money Promise.	好吧,我们得到了60%的样本说他们会投票给钱承诺先生。
311	Well, can we really believe that?	我们真的相信吗?
312	Might they be bad at record keeping?	他们可能不会做记录吗?
313	So it actually wasn't 60 percent.	所以其实不是60%。
314	It was only 50 percent.	这只有50%。
315	And, you know, if you last year when you used those people, they were completely hopeless.	而且,你知道,如果你去年当你使用这些人, 他们是完全没有希望的。
316	Might they be engaged in wishful thinking?	他们是否愿意这样做?
317	Might they be bad, just bad at maths?	他们会不会很坏,只是数学不好?
318	They can't work out percentages.	他们不能解决百分比。
319	And am I telling the truth?	我说的是实话吗?
320	Am I in the pay of one of BT's rivals?	我是BT的对手吗?
321	Am I prone to exaggeration?	我容易夸张吗?
322	Am I just very bad at estimating time?	我只是对估计时间很不好吗?
323	So lots of reasons why the premise itself might not be true.	因此,许多理由,为什么前提本身可能不是真的。
324	And if you remember, whenever we're evaluating an argument, there are two things we've got to look at.	如果你还记得,每当我们评估一个争论时, 我们有两件事要研究。
325	Can you remember what they are?	你还记得他们是什么吗?
326	Just two basic things we look at whenever we're evaluating an argument of any kind at all.	每当我们评估任何论点时,我们都会考虑两个基本问题。
327	One is, does the conclusion follow from the premises?	其一,结论是否源于馆舍?
328	That's right.	没错
329	And the other is, are the premises true?	而另一个是, 房子是真的吗?
330	That's right.	没错
331	Because if even one premise is false, then that doesn't guarantee the truth of the conclusion, does it?	因为即使一个前提都是虚假的,那也不能保证结论的真实性,不是吗?
332	Or doesn't even make the truth of the conclusion more likely?	或者连结论的真相都不可能吗?
333	So first thing you look at when you look at any argument is, are the premises true?	所以,你首先看当你看到任何争论是, 前提是真的吗?
334	OK, how large is the sample?	好,样本有多大?
335	Again, you've got this.	再说一遍,你有这个
336	How many of those who would vote in the election were sampled?	有多少人将在选举中投票?
337	Ten out of one million?	百万分之十吗?
338	Well, that doesn't look very good, does it?	看起来不太好吧?
339	A thousand out of one million?	十万分之一吗?
340	That looks better.	这看起来好多了。
341	How many is enough, though, do you think?	有多少是足够的,虽然, 你觉得呢?
342	And that's a really difficult question, isn't it?	这是一个非常困难的问题,不是吗?
343	How many is enough?	有多少够?
344	I'm just specifying here that one million is the population.	我只是在这里具体说明 100万人口。
345	And then we're saying, OK, how many of those would count as enough?	然后我们要说,好吧,有多少这些可以算得够多了?
346	And I'm saying there actually isn't any answer to that.	我意思是实际上没有任何答案。
347	We can certainly answer that ten is probably not enough.	我们当然可以回答,十项可能是不够的。
348	And we might be able to say that 999, well, a thousand or ten thousand, I don't even know how much a million is.	我们也许可以说999,嗯,一千到一万, 我甚至不知道百万是多少。
349	A thousand thousand, isn't it?	一千,不是吗?
350	OK, nine hundred thousand would be enough.	好吧,90万就够了。
351	OK, but in between those two numbers, what counts as enough?	好吧,但是在这两个数字之间, 什么是足够的?
352	Well, that's coming later.	嗯,这是以后。
353	That's coming when we look at the representativeness of the sample.	当我们观察样本的代表性时,就会出现这种情况。
354	At the moment, the only thing we're talking about is the size of the sample.	目前,我们只谈样本的大小.
355	If I say all swans are white and you say, well, what's your reason for saying that?	如果我说所有的天鹅都是白的你说,那你为什么这么说?
356	And I say, well, I've saw a swan just now and it was white.	我说,我刚刚看到一只天鹅,它是白色的。
357	And you say, just one?	你说,只有一个?
358	And I say, yeah.	我说,是的。
359	And you can be more or less inductively bold.	并且你可以多一点的诱导性大胆。
360	And actually, if we were to look at people in this room, if we were to do a head count of people in this room,	实际上,如果我们要看看这个房间里的人, 如果我们要做一个头数在这个房间里的人,
361	we'd find that some of us are very or actually I shouldn't say us because I'm not inductively bold.	我们会发现,我们中有些人是非常或实际上,我不应该说我们,因为我并不大胆。
362	But some of us would be prepared to extrapolate from a very small number.	但我们有些人愿意从极少数国家推断。
363	And others of us would be very skeptical about extrapolating even from quite a large number.	而我们其他人会非常怀疑即使从相当数量推断。
364	So actually, the question, how many is enough?	所以,实际上,问题, 有多少是足够的?
365	The answer would be it depends on who you are and on how inductively bold you are.	答案是取决于你是谁取决于你有多大胆
366	Well, statisticians have to come up with something that they would count as enough.	统计学家们必须想出他们认为足够的东西。
367	When you say the larger the sample, do you mean that it's certainly true that if a thousand have been sampled,	当你说样本越大,你的意思是, 如果有一千个样本,
368	that's much more confidence boosting than 10?	这比十点更有信心?
369	Yes.	对
370	Is that what you mean?	这就是你的意思吗?
371	Yes.	对
372	OK.	摆
373	80 percent is 55 percent plus or minus 10 percent.	80%是55%加减10%。
374	And the range of their prediction depends upon the size of the sample.	而它们的预测范围取决于样本的大小.
375	No, I'm getting out of my depth here.	不,我要离开这里的深度。
376	I don't understand what you're saying, I'm afraid.	我不懂你在说什么,我害怕。
377	Yes, we're coming to that.	是的,我们来了。
378	That's representativeness.	这就是代表性。
379	Yes.	对
380	No, let's leave representativeness aside.	不,让我们离开代表性。
381	At the moment, I'm just talking about size.	目前,我只说大小.
382	All we need to look at is how many of those in the sample, how many in the population, how many in the sample	我们只要看看样本中有多少人有多少人口
383	do we think that we've got enough who've been sampled in order to make us more confident about the extrapolation?	我们是否认为我们有足够的人被采样,以便让我们对推断更加有信心?
384	If I've only run BT once, then my claim that the next time I'm going to ring is is really pretty low, isn't it?	如果我只运行过一次BT, 那么我声称下一次我要响真的很低,不是吗?
385	It's a very weak argument.	辩才极弱.
386	Whereas if I've run BT 50 times and not got through, then that's more reason to think.	如果我运行了50次BT,没有通过, 那更有理由思考。
387	So if we think remember that inductive arguments make the premises make the conclusion more or less likely.	所以,如果我们想记住, 引证性的论点使前提使结论或多或少的可能性。
388	Well, if my premise is I've run BT once in the past and it took them hours to answer,	好吧,如果我的前提我曾经运行过一次BT 并且他们花了几个小时来回答,
389	then so it'll take them hours to answer again.	那么他们需要几个小时才能回答
390	My argument is much less strong than if I say I've run BT 50 odd times in the past and it's taken them hours to answer.	我的论点比过去运行过50次的BT更没有那么强烈,
391	Therefore, it'll take them hours to answer next time.	所以下次要花几个小时才能回答
392	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
393	And again here, if I say 10 out of 60 percent of 10, in other words, six voters out of a million said that they'd be voting for Mr.	换句话说,一百万中有六位选民说他们会投票支持先生。
394	Many Promise, therefore Mr.	许许多多承诺,所以,先生。
395	Many Promise will win the election.	许多承诺会赢得选举。
396	That's a less good argument, a weaker argument than if I say 60 percent of a thousand voters say that they'll vote for Mr.	较之我所说的千分之六的选民说他们会投票支持先生
397	Many Promise.	很多承诺。
398	Therefore, Mr.	因此,我建议:
399	Many Promise will 60 percent of people will vote for him in the election and he'll win.	许多承诺将会有60%的人在选举中投票支持他,他会获胜.
400	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
401	We haven't actually looked at representativeness yet.	我们还没有真正看待代表性。
402	We will about to do so.	我们将这样做。
403	You're all dying to get onto unrepresentativeness.	你们都渴望获得无代表性。
404	So let's do so.	故应之.
405	Here we go.	开始了
406	OK, the second thing that we ask is how representative is the sample?	好吧,我们问的第二件事是样本的代表性如何?
407	What you should do instantly, I'm giving you again, you might see it as another algorithm, another just list of steps that you might do.	你该立刻做什么,我再给你一次, 你可能会把它看作是另一种算法, 另一种你可能要做的步骤。
408	Again, try and keep them separate in your mind because if you tick off each one, OK, you've asked yourself how many there are in the sample and how many there are in the population and made a judgement about whether there is nothing in the sample to be ab	再重复一遍,试着把它们分开, 因为如果你把每个都切掉,好吧, 你问自己样本里有多少个, 有多少个在人群中, 并判断样本里有没有什么可以推断的。
409	Second question you ask is whether the sample is representative.	你问的第二个问题是样本是否具有代表性。
410	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
411	Descartes, very famous philosopher, brilliant philosopher, had a list of rules of thinking.	笛卡尔,非常著名的哲学家,辉煌的哲学家,有一系列的思维规则.
412	And one of the things he said was that you should take any problem you have and break it up into its parts and then deal with each part separately and then make sure that looking at each of the parts you can put together as a solution to the whole.	他说的一件事是,你应该处理任何问题, 把它分成几个部分, 然后分别处理每个部分, 然后确保把每个部分都放在一起,作为整体的解决方案。
413	And what I'm suggesting here is you ask each of these questions separately so that you make sure that you ask all of them.	我建议你分别问每个问题这样你就能确保问到所有的问题
414	And it just makes your thoughts clearer.	它只是让你的想法更清晰。
415	Again, as with first, you identify the argument and analyse it.	同样,与第一一样,你确定并分析这一论点。
416	Then you evaluate it.	那你来评估一下
417	OK, you don't try and do both at once.	好吧,你不尝试和同时做。
418	OK, so here again, you got all these.	好吧,所以在这里,你得到了所有这些。
419	Were the voters sampled all female?	投票人都是女性吗?
420	Well, I mean, there are a lot of medical experiments or medical surveys that look only at men and then extrapolate the results to women.	嗯,我的意思是,有很多医学实验或医学调查只看男人,然后推断结果给女人。
421	I don't know if you've seen recently, they've decided that for women, the symptoms of a heart attack are quite different from the heart attack symptoms of a man.	我不知道你最近有没有看过, 他们决定,对于女性来说,心脏病发作的症状与男性的心脏病发作症状大不相同.
422	And therefore, all the extrapolation that they've done in the past from male experience of heart attacks to female experience of heart attacks has been faulty.	因此,他们过去从男性心脏病发作经历到女性心脏病发作经历的推断都是错误的.
423	There was quite a big thing about that a couple of weeks ago.	几个星期前这件事很重要
424	Are they all over 40?	他们都超过40岁了吗?
425	Are they all white?	他们都是白人吗?
426	Are they all middle class?	他们都是中产阶级吗?
427	Are they all known to the person conducting the survey?	调查人员是否都认识他们?
428	The famous example that you were mentioning a minute ago and in fact that you've just mentioned as well in an election between who Roosevelt and Landon.	一分钟前你提到的著名例子在罗斯福和兰登的选举中你也提到过
429	That's right.	没错
430	They thought that 60 percent of the population was going to vote.	他们认为60%的人口会投票。
431	That's what their sample have said.	他们的样本就是这么说的
432	But how did they find the sample?	但是他们是怎么找到样本的?
433	They looked in the telephone book.	他们看了电话簿。
434	How many people had telephones then?	有多少人有电话?
435	Actually, very few.	实际上,很少。
436	So although there was 60 percent of the sample said that they would vote for Roosevelt, actually the sample was horrendously unrepresentative because it was middle class people with a fair amount of money who had telephones.	因此,虽然有60%的样本说他们会投罗斯福的票, 但实际上,这些样本非常不具有代表性, 因为有电话的中产阶级是拥有相当数量钱的。
437	And therefore, it didn't represent the population as a whole.	因此,它并不代表整个人口.
438	OK.	摆
439	And anyway, the same thing here.	无论如何,同样的事情在这里。
440	Again, we came as have I only rung BT on the Sunday after 10 p.m.	再说一遍,晚上十点后,我星期天才跑BT
441	When I'm in a hurry, et cetera, et cetera.	急急时等.
442	OK.	摆
443	So firstly, is the premise true?	首先,前提是真的吗?
444	Secondly, what was it?	第二,这是什么?
445	How large is the sample as a percentage of the population?	样本占人口的百分比有多大?
446	Thirdly, how representative is the sample?	第三,样本的代表性如何?
447	Three questions to ask there.	问此三问.
448	Here's another one.	这里还有一个。
449	Here's a one you haven't thought of and perfectly reasonable that you shouldn't.	这是你没想过的也是你不该想到的
450	If you were asked, here are two hands of cards.	如果你被问到,这里有两张牌。
451	Which one is most likely to come up?	哪一个最有可能出现?
452	Who thinks this one is most likely to come up?	谁认为这个最有可能出现?
453	No.	没有
454	You're all very clever, aren't you?	你们都很聪明,不是吗?
455	You're absolutely right.	你说得对
456	They're actually equally likely to come up because, of course, cards are just at random.	它们实际上同样有可能出现因为,当然,卡片只是随机的。
457	They're not.	他们不是。
458	But actually, if you if you if you ask the students at the university where this experiment was done,	但实际上如果你问大学的学生做实验的地方
459	which hand is likely to come up, they come out overwhelmingly against this one and for this one.	这只手很可能会升起他们非常强烈地反对这个也反对这个
460	This is much more likely to come up than this one.	这比这个更有可能出现。
461	Now, you can see why they think this, can't you?	你明白他们为什么这样想吧?
462	This is this one.	这是这个。
463	Well, yes, this is the one they'd love to have come up.	嗯,是的,这是他们喜欢上的人。
464	And this is the one that they have come up.	这是他们提出的一个。
465	They think all the time sort of thing.	他们总是这样想
466	But, of course, actually, it doesn't quite work like that because they're using an informal heuristic to say,	但是,当然,实际上,它不相当像那样工作因为他们使用非正式的热力学说,
467	in my experience, this never comes up and this always comes up.	以我的经验,这永远不会出现并且总是出现。
468	And actually, you just can't use that here, can you?	其实,你只是不能用在这里,你呢?
469	Because what comes up is something like that, but certainly not that.	因为事情是这样的但肯定不是那样的
470	It just means a way of making a decision.	这只是决定的方法。
471	A rule of thumb, if you like, a way of making a decision.	拇指规则,如果你喜欢, 做决定的方式。
472	Thank you for asking.	谢谢你的问候
473	I should have explained it before.	我早该解释的
474	OK, so if an inductive generalisation is based on an informal claim like this,	好吧,所以如果一个诱导概括是基于这样的非正式索赔,
475	in my experience, hands like this never come up.	根据我的经验像这样的手永远不会出现
476	Therefore, this one is much less likely than that one.	因此,这个可能性远低于那个。
477	Then you should be very wary of the generalisation.	那你应该非常谨慎的概括。
478	And here's another one, and I expect you're all going to be clever enough to get this too.	还有一个,我希望你们都够聪明也能得到这个。
479	OK, in four pages of a novel, how many words would you expect to find ending in "-ing"?	好吧,在小说四页里,你会期望在"-ing"中找到多少个词?
480	And in four pages of a novel, how many words would you expect to find that include the letter N?	在小说四页中,你会想找到多少字包括字母N?
481	Would you expect that to be larger than that or vice versa?	你会期望这个比那个大还是反之?
482	So you'd expect more of the "-ing words.	所以,你会期望更多的 " -ing"的词。
483	No, more of the N words.	不,更多的是N词。
484	Put up your hands if you think there are more N words.	举起手来,如果你认为有更多的N字。
485	OK, put up your hands if you think more "-ing words.	好吧,举起手来,如果你多想 " -ing"的词。
486	OK, that's interesting.	好吧,这很有趣。
487	This time you have fallen for the trick.	这次你被骗了
488	Because, of course, there are going to be...	因为,当然,会有...
489	That's right.	没错
490	They're always going to...	他们总是...
491	Oh, OK, I'm sorry.	哦,好吧,对不起。
492	So you're absolutely right.	所以你绝对是对的
493	There are going to be many more N words than there are N words,	N字比N字还多
494	because they're going to be at least as many N words as there are N words.	因为它们至少会像N字一样多
495	Yes, OK.	是的,还好。
496	Sorry, you did get that.	对不起,你确实得到了。
497	What happens again when you ask these students, the psychology students at the university where this experiment was done,	当你问这些学生做实验的大学的心理学学生会发生什么
498	is they expect many more of these because they can think of many more "-ing words than they can of N words.	因为他们能想到比N字还多的 " 动词 " 。
499	And therefore they inductively generalise again.	因此,他们又进行了感应性概括。
500	Well, I can think of many more of those, therefore there probably are more of those.	嗯,我可以想到更多的这些, 因此可能有更多的这些。
501	Again, bad arguments.	再说一遍糟糕的争论
502	If I ask you how many footballers or something from a particular team score well,	如果我问你们多少足球运动员或某队什么的得分很好
503	you'll be able to think... Well, that's a very bad example.	你会想到... 嗯,这是一个非常糟糕的例子。
504	Anything that you think you know a bit about, you're probably tempted to rely on your own experience to make an inductive generalisation.	任何你觉得自己有点了解的东西,你可能都想依靠自己的经验来做一个感官概括.
505	That can work if you really do know what you're talking about,	如果你真的知道自己在说什么,那就成功了
506	but it doesn't work if you're just using that way of doing it on another context where actually your knowledge is not so secure.	但是,如果你只是用这种方式来做另一个环境,而实际上你的知识并不那么安全,那就行不通了。
507	OK. OK, so five steps there, I think it was.	摆好吧,所以5个步骤,我想是的。
508	When you're evaluating any inductive generalisation, you're looking for firstly, is the premise true?	当你评估任何感官概括时,你首先要寻找的是,前提是真的吗?
509	Secondly, does the sample size of the population, is it large enough compared to the population as a whole?	第二,人口的抽样规模是否与整个人口相比足够大?
510	Thirdly, is the sample representative or is there a bias in it due to whatever?	第三,样本是否具有代表性,或者其中是否有偏见,因为什么原因?
511	All sorts of reasons for different biases.	不同偏见的各种原因.
512	And finally, is it based on an informal heuristic that actually an informal rule of thumb that actually just won't stand up to proper scrutiny here?	最后,是不是基于一种非正式的休眠症也就是一个非正式的拇指规则而实际上却无法接受适当的检查?
513	OK, and as I said, all inductive arguments are based on inductive generalisations.	好吧,正如我所说,所有引论都是基于引论的概括。
514	And so that little way of testing things can be used for all of them.	那样,测试事物的微小方法就可以用于所有的东西。
515	Let's look at causal generalisations.	让我们来看看因果概括。
516	OK, a causal generalisation is a type of inductive generalisation.	好吧,一个因果概括是一种诱导概括。
517	The premise identifies a correlation between two types of events	该前提确定了两类事件之间的关联性
518	and the conclusion states that events of the first type cause events of the second type.	并且结论指出,第一类事件导致第二类事件。
519	So the idea is that if you see A and B, A and B, A and B, A's and B's are always correlated,	所以这个想法是,如果你看到A和B,A和B,A和B,A和B总是相互关联的,
520	you extrapolate to the claim that A's and B's will always be correlated	你推论A's和B's永远相关
521	and you imply that the reason for this is that there's a causal relation between them.	而你暗示,原因是因为他们之间有因果关系。
522	So where there's correlation, there's cause.	因此,在有关联的地方,有原因.
523	That's what a causal generalisation is.	这就是因果关系的概括。
524	So let's have a look at a couple.	让我们看看一对夫妇。
525	OK, married men live longer than single men.	好吧,已婚男人的寿命比单身男人长。
526	Therefore, being married causes you to live longer.	因此,结婚让你活得更长。
527	I apologise for this one.	我为这个道歉
528	When air is allowed into a wound, maggots form.	当允许空气进入伤口时,蛆会形成.
529	Therefore, maggots in wounds are caused by air being allowed into the wound.	因此,伤口中的蛆是由允许进入伤口的空气造成的。
530	Sorry.	对不起
531	OK, I tell you what, let's do it openly.	好吧,我告诉你,让我们公开做它。
532	What do we need to know to know whether these arguments are good arguments?	我们需要知道什么才能知道这些论点是否是好的论点?
533	OK, let's have a look.	好吧,让我们来看看。
534	Again, we ask is the premise true?	我们再次问,前提是否正确?
535	Who says married men live longer?	谁说已婚男人活得更久?
536	A woman who wants to get married?	一个想结婚的女人?
537	Fred, whose parents split up when he was five?	弗莱德,他五岁时父母分开了?
538	I mean, who's saying this?	谁说的?
539	Where are we actually getting this information from?	我们从哪里得到这个信息?
540	Who says maggots form when air gets into the wound, just as you said at the back there?	谁说当空气进入伤口时蛆会形成就像你在后面说的?
541	Was it a newly qualified nurse who's observed this once?	是一位新合格的护士看过一次吗?
542	Was it an elderly doctor who's seen this a lot, but only in his own experience and in his own study, perhaps?	是一位年长的医生看过很多, 但只有他自己的经验和研究,也许?
543	Or was it a scientific study, one that you would expect to have looked at more carefully?	还是你期望更仔细研究的科学研究?
544	Causation is actually, I mean, to give you a little bit of background on this,	原因其实是给你一些背景
545	David Hume, the person I've mentioned already in connection with the principle of the uniformity of nature,	大卫·休姆,我已经提到过的人关于自然的统一原则,
546	believes that actually causation, we cannot determine causation.	我们认为,事实上是因果关系,我们不能确定因果关系。
547	If we find A causes B and we try and find out why A causes B, what is this causal relation?	如果我们找到A原因B,我们试图找出为什么A原因B,这个因果关系是什么?
548	What is it that relates the two things that have cause and effect?	它与有因果关系的两件事有什么关系?
549	We'll just find another correlation, C and D. OK, so why do we think C and D are correlated?	我们只是找到另一个关联,C和D。好吧,为什么我们认为C和D是关联的?
550	We look further and we look down and we see yet another correlation.	我们向前看,向下看,我们看到另一个关联。
551	So all we ever see is correlation.	所以,我们所看到的只是相关性。
552	We never actually see the causal relation itself.	我们从来没有看到因果关系本身。
553	We can never get to the causal relations itself.	我们永远无法找到因果关系本身。
554	And he actually thought, arguably, this is a very popular theory of Hume, although lots of people deny it these days,	他实际上想,可以说, 这是一个非常流行的论调休姆,虽然很多人否认它这些天,
555	that he actually thought causation didn't exist at all, that our beliefs about causation are just a habit of mind.	他实际上认为因果关系根本不存在, 我们关于因果关系的信念只是一种心理习惯。
556	So we see A correlated with B, A correlated with B, A correlated with B, and we start to say that A causes B.	因此,我们看到A与B相关,A与B相关,A与B相关,我们开始说A是B的原因。
557	And all we mean by that is that A is correlated with B.	我们的意思是,A和B是相关联的。
558	There's just a constant conjunction between A and B.	A和B之间只是不断的连接.
559	There's nothing that makes A cause B.	没有什么能让A的原因B。
560	I have to say that there's another theory of Hume's that he says that A causes B,	我不得不说休姆的另一个理论是他说A是B
561	where has it not been the case that A, it would not have been the case that B.	如果不是A, 就不会是B。
562	Had it not been the case that A, it would not have been the case that B.	如果没有A,就不会是B。
563	And that suggests that there's a power of some kind, isn't there, that makes A cause B.	这说明有一种力量,不是它, 它使A事业B。
564	But we don't ever see that power, do we?	但我们从来没有看到这种力量,不是吗?
565	We just see the cause and the effect and the correlation between them.	我们只是看到原因、结果和它们之间的关联。
566	And so causation is a really interesting philosophical issue.	因此因果关系是一个非常有趣的哲学问题。
567	The question of what causation is, is endlessly interesting.	因果关系的问题无休止地令人感兴趣。
568	I think it's endlessly interesting.	我觉得这很有趣
569	But it remains to be the case that our evidence for causation is always a correlation.	但是,我们有关因果关系的证据始终是相互关联的。
570	But a correlation simply isn't sufficient as evidence for causation, is it?	但是一种关联不足以作为因果关系的证据不是吗?
571	Because it could be evidence for identity, for example.	因为它可能是身份的证据,例如。
572	So night, well, the evening star goes down, the morning star rises and so on and so forth.	故夜,则夜星降,晨星升等.
573	Do they cause each other to do it?	他们是否互相造成?
574	No, they're actually, they're the same thing.	不,他们其实是一样的
575	That's why they're correlated.	所以它们才互相关联
576	That's why the pattern is uniform.	所以图案统一.
577	Do husbands cause wives?	丈夫生妻子吗?
578	But they're correlated.	但它们是相互关联的。
579	Well, what we're saying is that correlation isn't sufficient for a causation.	我们说的是关联性不足以解释因果关系
580	But it's the only evidence we're ever likely to have.	但这是我们唯一可能掌握的证据
581	But when you see a causal generalisation, it will be based on correlations.	但是,当你看到一个因果概括时,它会基于相关性.
582	But what we're alerting you to here is that a correlation isn't sufficient for a causation.	但我们要提醒你的是关联性不足以解释因果关系
583	You need to ask lots of other questions.	你需要问很多其他的问题。
584	So is the premise true?	前提是真的吗?
585	How strong is the correlation?	其相关性有多强?
586	How many married men were observed?	有多少已婚男子被观察到?
587	I mean, this is, again, exactly the same as how many are in the sample from the last question.	我的意思是,这是,再次, 完全一样在样本中有多少从最后一个问题。
588	How long were they observed?	他们被观察到多久了?
589	Were unmarried men observed?	未婚男子被观察到了吗?
590	How many cases of maggots forming were observed?	观察到了多少只蛆形成的情况?
591	Because John Stuart Mill, famous philosopher, English philosopher,	因为约翰·斯图亚特·米尔,著名哲学家,英国哲学家,
592	came up with what he called the method of agreement and the method of difference for scientific experiments.	提出了他所说的一致方法和科学实验的区别方法.
593	If you're trying to work out what causes what, you need to see firstly that they do correlate,	如果你想找出原因你得先看看它们是否相关
594	that the cause correlates with the effect.	原因与效果相关
595	The next thing you need to do is to try and bring about the cause without the effect.	接下来你需要做的是尝试实现没有效果的事业.
596	If you're saying that A's cause B, because A's are always correlated with B,	如果你说的是A的事业B 因为A总是和B有关
597	then what you do is you try and bring about an A without a B,	然后,你所做的,是尝试带来一个A没有B,
598	because if you can do that, you've disproved your claim about causation.	因为如果你可以做到这一点, 你已经反驳了你关于因果关系的说法。
599	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
600	And that shows us that we tend to think that a cause is sufficient for its effect,	这表明我们倾向于认为一个事业足以产生其效果,
601	that if A causes B, the occurrence of an A must be followed by the occurrence of a B,	如果A导致B, A的发生必须随后发生B,
602	because A is sufficient for B.	因为A足够B。
603	So that's the method of samenesses and the method of differences,	所以,这是方法相同和不同,
604	which tells you whether something's a cause or not.	告诉你什么是原因还是不是
605	Also, you want to ask, does the causal relation make sense or could it be accidental?	另外,你想问的是,因果关系是否合理,还是偶然的?
606	Let's say that we discovered that in the whole history of the universe,	假设我们发现在宇宙的整个历史,
607	every time a match has been struck, a pineapple has fallen.	每一次比赛,菠萝都掉下来了
608	Okay, we have a correlation, and we've done our very best to try and make sure	好吧,我们有一个关联, 我们已经尽了最大努力试图确保
609	that we've struck matches without a pineapple falling, and we keep on doing it,	我们打的火柴没有菠萝掉落, 我们继续这样做,
610	so we can't break the correlation in any way.	因此,我们无法打破任何方式的关联。
611	Do we think that matches striking cause pineapples to fall?	我们是否认为这匹配使菠萝坠落?
612	Well, some people are quite inductively bold here.	有些人很大胆
613	They think, yes, if you've got a correlation as strong as that, it must be causal.	他们认为,是的,如果你有这么强的关联, 那一定是因果关系。
614	Apparently, there's also a correlation between the length of skirts and the Dow Jones index.	显然,裙子的长度与道琼斯指数之间也有关联.
615	As one goes up, the other goes up, and as one goes down, the other goes down.	如一升而一升而一升而一降而一降.
616	It might be the other way around, but anyway, there's a correlation here.	也许是相反的, 但无论如何, 这里有一个关联。
617	Do we think that the length of skirts causes the rise and fall of the Dow Jones index or vice versa?	我们是否认为裙子的长度会导致道琼斯指数的升降,反之亦然?
618	You can sort of see something that makes sense, can't you, in that?	你可以看到有道理的东西,不是吗?
619	Maybe when the Dow Jones index is really high, people are really excited and pleased,	也许当道琼斯指数真的很高时人们会非常兴奋和高兴
620	and therefore they risk taking, so they put on their miniskirt.	因而他们冒着危险穿上迷你裙
621	Okay, so the claim that being married makes you live longer if you're a man.	好吧,所以声称结婚让你活得更长如果你是一个男人。
622	Why would being married cause men to live longer?	为什么结婚会让男人活得更久?
623	I think this is where your claim about are we including civil relationships is quite interesting.	我想这就是你声称的我们包括的民事关系是相当有趣的。
624	Why would being married cause men to live longer?	为什么结婚会让男人活得更久?
625	Incidentally, I think it causes women to die earlier.	顺便说一句,我觉得这导致妇女更早死亡。
626	Just a warning to women in this room.	只是给这房间里的女人一个警告
627	Okay, they're happier, their stress reduces.	好吧,他们更快乐,压力降低。
628	Another explanation?	另一种解释?
629	What?	你说什么?
630	That's a first, he says.	他说这是第一次
631	It might also be because women tend to look after diets and things like that.	这可能是因为妇女往往照顾饮食之类的事情。
632	Men are cooked for more often than women are, perhaps, and when women do the cooking,	男人比女人更经常做饭当女人做饭时
633	they're concerned about nutrition and da-da-da-da.	他们关心的是营养和达达达
634	So when a married man eats, he tends to eat more healthily than a...	所以,当一个已婚男人吃, 他倾向于吃更健康比一个...
635	I mean, we can think of reasons for why that would be the case, can't we?	我的意思是,我们可以想出原因为什么会这样,不是吗?
636	So it's not a complete mystery.	所以这不是一个完全的神秘。
637	What about this one?	这个呢?
638	Why would air getting into a wound cause maggots to form?	为什么空气进入伤口会让蛆形成?
639	So, I mean, the experiment we've done here,	所以,我的意思是,我们已经做的实验,
640	some nurses have seen that when a wound was covered up by accident or something like that,	有些护士看到当伤口被意外或类似的东西掩盖时
641	maggots didn't form, and she thinks, well, you know, could it be?	她觉得,这有可能吗?
642	So she covers up a few and she leaves a few open,	所以她盖了几个,留下了几个开口,
643	and she sees that the ones she's covered up don't get maggots,	她看到那些被遮住的人不会得到蛆,
644	whereas the ones that are left open do get maggots.	而那些被打开的却会得到蛆。
645	So she's formed a hypothesis.	所以她形成了一个假说.
646	Could it be that air getting into the wound causes maggots?	会不会是空气冲进伤口会导致蛆?
647	But why would that be the case?	但为什么会这样呢?
648	Perhaps because there's something carried in the air that causes maggots to form,	也许因为有东西在空气中携带导致蛆形成,
649	and actually we know now that that is the case.	而实际上我们现在知道,情况就是这样。
650	Okay, so does the causal relation make sense?	好吧因果关系有道理吗?
651	Incidentally, if it doesn't make sense, does that mean it's not causal?	顺便说一句,如果这不合理,那是否意味着它不是因果关系?
652	No, it doesn't actually, does it?	不,这不是真的,是吗?
653	Because you can imagine that there may be something that is a complete mystery for us for a while,	因为你可以想象可能有些事情对我们来说是一个完全的谜
654	and I wish I could think of an example,	我希望我能想到一个例子,
655	but which turns out to be true and turns out to have an explanation.	但事实证明是真实的, 并有一个解释。
656	But even so, if things seem to be just totally disparate,	但即使如此如果事情看起来完全不同
657	that would be a mark against this argument being a good one.	这将是一个标志与这个论点是一个好的。
658	We also might, and we've done this a bit, okay, what cause is what?	我们也可能,我们已经做了一点, 好吧,什么原因是什么?
659	Could it be that being long-lived causes marriage?	会不会是长寿导致婚姻?
660	So it might be that having genes for longevity cause men to get married.	所以也许长寿的基因会导致男人结婚
661	So you said socioeconomic factors, but I'm suggesting it could be genetic factors.	你说了社会经济因素但我建议可能是遗传因素
662	So there's one set of genes such that if a man has them,	所以,有一套基因这样,如果一个人有它们,
663	he's both more likely to get married and he's more likely to live longer.	他更可能结婚也更可能活得更长
664	So there's one common cause for the two things rather than one thing causes the other.	所以两件事有一个共同的原因,而不是一个原因。
665	Yeah, and I couldn't think of anything.	是啊,我什么都想不出来。
666	Could maggots forming cause air to get into the womb?	哺乳动物会让空气进入子宫吗?
667	No, I couldn't think about that.	不,我不能考虑。
668	So, okay, right.	所以,好吧,对了。
669	So that's looking at causal generalizations,	所以,这就是对因果关系的概括,
670	and you'll see that many of the questions that you would ask about causal generalizations	你会看到很多关于因果概括的问题
671	are also questions you've already asked about inductive generalizations.	也是你已经问过的问题关于诱导概括。
672	That's not surprising because causal generalizations are a type of inductive generalization.	这不足为奇,因为因果通论是一类诱导通论.
673	And all the ones that you're asking separately are the ones that say,	而你们单独要求的都是那些说
674	you know, why should we think that a correlation has a causal relation under it?	你知道,我们为什么认为一种关联有着因果关系它下?
675	So just moving on quickly to analogy here, another type of inductive generalization.	所以,只要快速地进行类比, 另一种类型的诱导性概括。
676	It takes just one sample of something and then extrapolates from a character of that example	它只需要一个样本然后从这个例子的特征推断
677	to the character of something similar to that thing.	与类似的东西的性格。
678	And there's a famous argument from analogy.	而有名辩从类推.
679	The universe is like a pocket watch.	宇宙犹如袖表.
680	Pocket watches have designers.	口袋表有设计师。
681	Therefore, the universe must have a designer.	因此,宇宙必须有一个设计师。
682	I think we're probably all familiar with that argument.	我想我们可能都熟悉这个论点。
683	Okay, how would we go about questioning this argument?	好吧,我们如何去去质疑这个论点?
684	Yes.	对
685	Okay.	摆
686	What aspect are we picking out here and saying is similar to the two cases?	我们在这里挑出哪些方面,并说与这两个案件相似?
687	So why is the universe like a pocket watch?	那么为什么宇宙就像一个袖珍表?
688	I mean, using this famous example, what did the person believe?	我的意思是,用这个著名的例子, 人相信什么?
689	That's right.	没错
690	It was very...	这是非常...
691	Who was it?	是谁?
692	It's gone completely.	它已经完全消失。
693	Paley.	佩丽
694	That's right.	没错
695	Thank you.	谢谢
696	I'm sorry.	对不起
697	I have got a head full of cotton wool.	我有一头棉羊毛。
698	It's very strange.	甚为怪异.
699	Yeah.	对
700	Paley believed that the pocket watch moves regularly.	佩利认为袖珍表经常移动.
701	It's very complex.	这是非常复杂的。
702	It must have been very difficult to put together.	肯定很难拼凑
703	And he believes that the universe is also very regular, very complex.	他认为宇宙也非常规律,非常复杂.
704	It must have been difficult to put together.	肯定很难拼凑
705	Therefore, if one has a designer, the other has the designer.	因此,如果一个有设计师,另一个有设计师.
706	What else might you ask?	你还能问什么?
707	Okay.	摆
708	There are many...	这里有很多...
709	There is a similarity, we might say, between pocket watches and the universe.	我们可以说,袖珍表和宇宙之间有相似之处。
710	But there are many, many dissimilarities.	但有许多不同之处。
711	Why should we consider that this similarity is more important	我们为什么要认为这种相似性更重要
712	than all these differences?	比所有这些不同?
713	Yep.	对
714	Okay.	摆
715	But wouldn't you say that if the universe is like a pocket watch	但如果宇宙就像个袖珍表
716	in this particular thing,	在这个特殊的事情,
717	and the explanation of pocket watches having a designer	和解释手表拥有设计师
718	is this particular thing, in other words, it's being very complex,	换句话说,它非常复杂
719	so if we agree that everything that's complex and regular must have a designer,	所以,如果我们同意所有复杂和正常的必须有设计师,
720	okay, but we are saying the universe is like a pocket watch	好吧,但我们是在说宇宙就像一个袖珍表
721	in being very complex and regular.	在非常复杂和经常。
722	Pocket watches have a designer.	口袋手表有一个设计师。
723	Oh, I see.	原来如此
724	Okay, so you're absolutely right.	你说得对
725	I'm sorry.	对不起
726	No, you are right.	不,你说得对。
727	I was changing that second premise to everything that's complicated has a designer.	我将第二个前提换成所有复杂的事情都有一个设计师
728	And that's not what it says, is it?	上面不是这么说的吧?
729	And so I've rightly been pulled up on that.	所以,我正确地拉了起来。
730	Okay, it isn't what it says.	好吧,这不是它说什么。
731	I suppose that's why we think that this is going to work at all, though, isn't it?	我想这就是为什么我们觉得这样做是完全可行的,不是吗?
732	In order to give an argument, we do have to say a lot of things	为了引起争论,我们必须说很多话
733	in support of the various premises	支助各种房地
734	and in support of our belief that the conclusion follows from the premise and so on.	并且支持我们的信念,即结论来自前提等等。
735	So you wouldn't expect almost anything said to be an argument.	所以你不会期望几乎任何东西可以说是一个争论。
736	And actually, as you learn...	实际上,当你学会...
737	Yes, no, I'm not surprised.	是的,不,我不惊讶。
738	I suppose what I'm doing is I'm defending newspapers	我想我所做的是捍卫报纸
739	because actually you need to read a whole article	因为实际上你需要读一整篇文章
740	in order to see what the claim being made is.	以了解索赔内容。
741	And then you need to go back and identify what the reasons are being given for the claim.	然后,你需要回去并找出原因为索赔。
742	Okay, are the two things similar in the respect of...	好吧这两件事很相似...
743	Is the respect in which they're similar relevant to the argument being made?	与提出的论点相类似的尊重是否相关?
744	And also, can we find a disanalogy, which is the thing you mentioned,	还有,我们可以找到一个解剖, 这就是你提到的事情,
745	is are there differences between them and do the differences pertain to this argument?	它们之间是否有差异,这些差异是否与这一论点有关?
746	But the thing to remember about arguments from analogy	但从类比上记住争论
747	is that they are extrapolating from just one example.	他们只是从一个例子中推断出来的。
748	Therefore, the one example and the extrapolation	因此,一个例子和推断
749	have to be really pretty strong before you should go along with them.	在你和他们在一起之前一定要非常坚强
750	So arguments from...	所以说...
751	Actually, arguments from analogy are much more common	实际上,从类比中论证更常见
752	and probably for the reason you're saying,	可能是因为你说的原因
753	because they often take us along with them emotionally.	因为他们常常带我们和他们在一起
754	Let's finally look at arguments from authority.	最后让我们看看权威的论点.
755	Which take one person or a group of persons	需要一人或一组人
756	who are or are assumed to be right about some things	对于某些事情,他们或被认为是对的
757	and they extrapolate to the claim that they're right about other things.	他们推论自己在其他事情上是对的
758	So human rights monitoring organisations are experts	所以人权监督组织是专家
759	on whether human rights have been violated.	关于人权是否受到侵犯的问题。
760	They say that some prisoners are mistreated in Mexico,	他们说,一些囚犯在墨西哥受到虐待,
761	therefore some prisoners are mistreated in Mexico.	因此,一些囚犯在墨西哥受到虐待。
762	What do we need to ask about this?	我们要问什么?
763	Where do they get their information from?	他们从哪里得到信息?
764	Is it just that they've become hackneyed and cynical	难道只是他们变得黑客化和愤世嫉俗
765	and they think that everyone mistreats everyone?	他们认为每个人都虐待别人?
766	Or do they actually have reasons for saying what they have?	还是他们真的有理由说他们有什么?
767	All that's needed for this argument is that some prisoners are mistreated,	这个论点只需要一些囚犯受到虐待,
768	not that they're mistreated by anyone in particular.	不是说他们受到任何人的虐待
769	You might say here, we've started the first premise here,	你可能会说,我们开始这里的第一个前提,
770	is they may be experts on whether human rights have been violated,	他们是否是人权是否受到侵犯的专家,
771	but are they experts on whether somebody's been mistreated?	但他们是专家是否有人受到虐待?
772	Are they perhaps seeing trivial forms of mistreatment	他们有没有看到微不足道的虐待形式
773	as violations of human rights or something?	作为侵犯人权还是什么?
774	Is that what you mean?	这就是你的意思吗?
775	Let's have a look.	让我们来看看。
776	Who exactly is the source of information?	信息来源究竟是谁?
777	It was implying at least that all the human rights organisations were saying it,	这至少意味着所有人权组织都这样说,
778	but it might just say one.	但它可能只是说一个。
779	Again, there you would want to make a judgement	再说一遍,你想做个判决
780	about whether the source of information really is an expert,	关于信息来源是否真的是专家,
781	whether they're qualified in the appropriate area,	无论他们在合适的领域是否合格,
782	because it's very easy, again, going back to how inductively bold you are.	因为它非常容易,再次, 回到如何诱导的大胆。
783	If you have a tendency to think this person is an expert in one area,	如果你倾向于认为这个人是一个领域的专家
784	you may well inductively generalise to his or her being an expert in another area.	你完全可以概括他或她在另一个领域的专家。
785	Your tutor, for example, if Marianne says P, then P,	比如说,如果玛丽安说P,那么P
786	which is of course a very good argument,	这当然是一个很好的论点,
787	but if what she's talking about is politics or mathematics or something like that,	但如果她说的是政治数学之类的
788	then it's complete nonsense, isn't it?	那完全是胡说八道,不是吗?
789	You need to know who they are, you need to know whether they're qualified in the right area,	你需要知道他们是谁, 你需要知道他们是否合格在正确的领域,
790	you need to know whether they're impartial in respect to this particular claim.	你们需要知道他们是否公正对于这个特定的说法。
791	Amnesty International, let's say, are impartial.	可以说,大赦国际是公正的。
792	They go out and they get the evidence and they're very careful not to be biased.	他们走出去,得到证据,非常小心不要有偏见.
793	I don't know whether that's true, incidentally, but let's say it could be.	顺便说一句,我不知道这是否是真的, 但让我们假设它可能是。
794	But then there might be another human rights organisation	但也许还有另一个人权组织
795	that's not careful to make sure that its information isn't biased.	不小心地确保信息没有偏见
796	You'd need to make a distinction between the fact that Amnesty is a reputable organisation	你得区分一下特赦组织是一个有声誉的组织
797	and this other one isn't.	而另一个不是。
798	Well, you get that quite often.	嗯,你经常得到这一点。
799	If you want to belittle the results that come out of a particular survey,	如果你想贬低某一调查的结果,
800	one way of doing it is to say that the people who are putting forward this survey are biased.	一种做法是说,提出这项调查的人是有偏见的。
801	I've been working on looking at GM food,	我一直在研究转基因食品
802	and actually it's very, very difficult to get a source that hasn't been funded by a pharmaceutical company	实际上很难找到一个没有制药公司资助的来源
803	or by a company that isn't the Soil Association or somebody that's very anti-GM food.	或者不是土壤协会的公司或者是反GM食物的人
804	So finding something that really is an impartial source is really very difficult,	所以找到一个真正公正的来源是非常困难的,
805	and it's very, very important to try and find one if you're really going to evaluate these arguments.	如果你真的要评估这些论点试着找到一个是非常重要的
806	Finally, the point you made a minute ago,	最后,你刚才说的一点,
807	it's very rarely the case that you have one expert in an area,	在某个领域你只有一位专家的情况很罕见
808	and it's very rarely the case also that all the experts in an area will agree on something.	一个领域的所有专家也很少会达成一致
809	And if you have different experts making different claims,	如果你有不同的专家提出不同的要求,
810	you need to make a judgement as to which of them you think is correct.	你需要判断你认为其中哪一个是正确的。
811	And what you can't rely on there is an argument from authority, can you?	你无法依赖的是权威的争论,对吧?
812	Because they're both authorities.	因为他们都是当局
813	So if you were an undergraduate writing an essay,	所以如果你是本科生写作
814	or indeed if you were you writing an essay on philosophy for me,	如果你为我写一篇关于哲学的论文
815	I would have given you lots of reading, you would have done the reading,	我本来会给你很多的阅读, 你会做阅读,
816	and I would have expected you to come away and to think,	我本希望你离开,然后想
817	好吧,好吧,So -so说这个和 thingamabob说,
818	and he says P and he says not P.	他说P和他说不是P。
819	Well, which of them is the case?	那么,谁是他们的情况?
820	Well, now you need to look at what the arguments are that so-and-so gives,	那么,现在,你需要看看哪些争论是 so -so给,
821	what the arguments are that thingamabob gives,	辩论是什么东西amabob给予,
822	and work out which ones you think are the best ones and why.	找出你认为最好的,为什么
823	Okay, so there's no substitute for thinking for yourself.	好吧,所以没有替代思考自己。
824	An appeal to an argument for authority is okay for various things.	对于各种情况来说,对权威理由提出上诉是好的。
825	I mean, we have to rely on authorities for all sorts of things.	我的意思是,我们必须依靠当局各种各样的事情。
826	But if you were trying to write a philosophy essay saying Marianne says P,	但如果你想写一篇哲学论文说玛丽安说P
827	therefore P, will not do,	因此,P不会这样做,
828	and that's true of every philosopher you ever come across	每一个哲学家都是这样
829	because there are very, very few things in philosophy that aren't questioned.	因为哲学中很少有事情是没有疑问的.
830	Okay, that's where I was going today.	好吧,这就是我今天要去的地方。
831	Next week we'll look at validity and truth,	下星期我们再研究事实真相
832	and then we'll turn to the evaluation of deductive arguments.	然后我们再谈谈对推理的评价。
833	Thank you.	谢谢

该视频共有字幕 833 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

P6 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p06 5. 5.论证评估. (P6)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p06 5. 5.论证评估. (P6)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 1:06:23

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:01	Okay, here we are at week five.	好了,我们到了第五个星期了
0:02	Now this is going to be the most difficult week you'll have done.	现在这是你最难熬的一周了
0:06	We're going to be looking at evaluating arguments again, this time deductive arguments,	我们要重新评估各种论点这次是推论
0:12	and in particular we've got to look at the notion of validity.	特别是我们必须研究有效性的概念。
0:15	And this is a difficult notion to wrap your mind around, so expect to have a hard slog,	这是一个很难的概念包围你的思想, 所以期望有一个硬的口吻,
0:20	but if you keep at it, you'll be fine.	但如果你坚持下去你会没事的
0:25	Right, just a recap as usual on last week.	是的,只是回顾一下上周的往常。
0:29	If you remember, last week we evaluated inductive arguments.	如果你记得,上周我们评估了引证性辩论。
0:34	Remind me what an inductive argument is, a percentage chance of being right.	提醒我一个诱导性的论点是什么, 一个百分比的机会是正确的。
0:42	I'm not sure that's quite the way I put it, but more or less, what's more or less likely?	我不太确定我这么说, 但多少,什么是多或少的可能性?

展开字幕全文（1452 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Okay, here we are at week five.	好了,我们到了第五个星期了
2	Now this is going to be the most difficult week you'll have done.	现在这是你最难熬的一周了
3	We're going to be looking at evaluating arguments again, this time deductive arguments,	我们要重新评估各种论点这次是推论
4	and in particular we've got to look at the notion of validity.	特别是我们必须研究有效性的概念。
5	And this is a difficult notion to wrap your mind around, so expect to have a hard slog,	这是一个很难的概念包围你的思想, 所以期望有一个硬的口吻,
6	but if you keep at it, you'll be fine.	但如果你坚持下去你会没事的
7	Right, just a recap as usual on last week.	是的,只是回顾一下上周的往常。
8	If you remember, last week we evaluated inductive arguments.	如果你记得,上周我们评估了引证性辩论。
9	Remind me what an inductive argument is, a percentage chance of being right.	提醒我一个诱导性的论点是什么, 一个百分比的机会是正确的。
10	I'm not sure that's quite the way I put it, but more or less, what's more or less likely?	我不太确定我这么说, 但多少,什么是多或少的可能性?
11	Given the premises, the conclusion is more or less likely, exactly, as opposed to a deduction,	鉴于这些前提,结论或多或少是可能的,确切地说,而不是一种扣减,
12	where if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.	如果馆舍属实,结论必须属实。
13	Okay, so we looked at inductive generalisations and causal generalisations.	好吧,我们研究了感应论和因果论。
14	Arguments from analogy and arguments from authority.	以类推为论据,以权威为论据.
15	All different types of inductive arguments.	所有不同种类的引证论.
16	And if you remember, we looked at these things.	如果你记得,我们看了这些东西。
17	Now I realised at the end of last week that I hadn't added that one on.	现在我在上周末意识到我没有加一个。
18	So if you've got, you might want to go back to the handouts that you had from last week,	所以,如果你得到了,你也许想回到你上周的施舍,
19	and just note that this week's handouts will have that one on as well.	并只要注意,本周的施舍也将有一个。
20	And it's fairly obvious what that is, and if it isn't, it will be by the end of today.	这一点是相当明显的,如果不是的话,那就是今天的结束。
21	Okay, so those were the tests for an inductive generalisation.	好吧,这些是测试诱导性概括。
22	These were the tests for a causal generalisation.	这些是因果概括的检验标准。
23	These for the argument from analogy and these for the arguments for authority.	这些是用类比提出的论点,这些是用权威提出的论点。
24	I won't go over them again because as we've started a bit late, I would rather get straight on to today.	我不会再重复一遍了,因为我们开始晚了一点, 我宁愿今天直接说。
25	But if we have time left at the end of today for questions,	但是,如果我们还有时间在今天结束时的问题,
26	if you want to go over any of the ones that we did last week and you can't remember them	如果你想看看我们上星期做的那些你不记得了
27	or you'd just like a reminder, ask me then and we'll certainly come back to those.	或者你只是想提醒一下,然后问我我们一定会回到那些。
28	Okay, but this week we're going to be looking at the distinction between validity and truth	好吧,但这个星期,我们将看到区别有效性和真相
29	and at why validity is important.	以及为什么有效性是重要的。
30	And we're going to finish both this week and next week with evaluating deductive arguments.	我们本周和下星期都要完成评估推理
31	We've actually already mentioned the distinction between validity and truth.	我们实际上已经提到了有效性和真相之间的区别.
32	Would anyone like to have a go at telling me what it is?	有人愿意告诉我是什么吗?
33	It was about three weeks ago, so quite reasonable if you don't remember	大约三周前的事了如果你不记得的话,那么很合理
34	and quite reasonable if you get it wrong because we only mentioned it glancingly.	而且很合理如果你弄错了因为我们只提到它闪闪发光
35	Good, yeah, okay.	不错,是的,好。
36	An argument can be valid but not true.	论证可以成立,但不能成立.
37	Why is that the case?	为什么?
38	Right, okay, let's not push it.	好吧,好吧,让我们不要推它。
39	No, you were doing very well then.	不,你当时表现得很好
40	You're absolutely right.	你说得对
41	Statements or sentences or propositions can be true or false,	声明或句子或命题可以是真实的或虚假的,
42	but arguments can't be true or false.	但争论不能是真实的或虚假的。
43	Arguments can only be valid or invalid.	参数只能有效或无效。
44	Do you remember that?	你还记得吗?
45	We talked about that in the first week.	我们在第一周就谈过了
46	And I said then that one of the things that will give you away every time to a philosopher or a logician	然后,我说,一个事情会让你每次向一个哲学家或逻辑学家
47	is if you talk about arguments being true or false	是,如果你谈论争辩是真还是假
48	or if you talk about sentences being valid or invalid	或者说句子有效或者无效
49	because it's like my talking about the table being loud.	因为这就像我谈论桌子是大声的。
50	It makes it clear that I either don't understand the meaning of loud	这说明我要么不明白大声的意义
51	or I don't understand the meaning of table	或者我不明白桌子的意义
52	or I'm speaking metaphorically might also help.	或者我用隐喻来形容也会有所帮助
53	So sentences, statements can be true or false.	因此句子,陈述可以是真实的或虚假的.
54	So premises can be true or false.	因此,房地可以是真实的或虚假的。
55	Conclusions can be true or false, but arguments can't be.	结论可以是真实的,也可以是虚假的,但争论不能是.
56	And arguments can be valid or invalid, but they can't be either true or false.	而论据可以有效或无效,但不能是真实或虚假的.
57	Okay, so we'll be looking at why that is in a little more depth today.	好吧,我们来研究为什么今天会更深入一些。
58	And we'll be looking at why validity is important	我们会研究为什么有效性很重要
59	because one of the interesting things about valid arguments, as you'll see,	因为一个有趣的事情关于有效的争论, 你会看到,
60	is that they can have false conclusions.	他们可能得出错误的结论。
61	And you might ask yourself, well, why should an argument that has a false conclusion	你可能会问自己为什么一个有错误结论的争论
62	be a useful argument, never mind a good argument,	做个有用的辩论,不要介意一个好的辩论,
63	but we'll see why in this session.	但我们会知道为什么在这段时间。
64	Right, first we're going to deal with the idea of soundness.	是的,我们首先要处理健全的想法。
65	And an argument, a good deductive argument is sound	和一个争论,一个好的推理论是健全的
66	if and only if it's both valid and it has true premises.	前提是它既有效又有真实的前提
67	So soundness is to do with both validity and the truth of the premises.	因此,健全性既关系到有效性,也关系到前提的真实性.
68	So, okay, is this argument sound?	所以,好吧,这是争论的声音?
69	Put up your hand rather than yell out.	举起手来而不是大喊大叫
70	Put up your hand if you think this argument is sound.	如果你觉得这个争论很合理,就把手举起来.
71	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
72	This argument is valid and has false premises.	这一论点是有效的,有虚假的前提。
73	Could this argument be sound?	这种论点是否合理?
74	Put up your hand rather than shout out.	把手举起来,不要大喊大叫
75	Anyway, you've all done it now and you're quite right.	总之,你们现在都做了,你们都说对了.
76	No, that can't be sound, can it?	不,这不可能是声音,不是吗?
77	Okay, what about this one?	好吧,那这个呢?
78	Put up your hand because some people think more quickly than others,	举起手来,因为有些人比别人想得更快
79	so give everyone a chance to think.	给大家一个思考的机会
80	As soon as you've decided, put up your hand.	你一决定就把手举起来
81	Okay, that's most of you.	好吧,这是大多数你。
82	What is it?	这是什么?
83	No, it's got to be unsound, hasn't it?	不,它必须是不健全的,不是吗?
84	It couldn't possibly be both.	不可能是两者兼有
85	What about this one?	这个呢?
86	Okay, what are you saying to this one?	好吧,你在说什么这个?
87	No, okay, again, this one can't be valid.	不,好吧,再说一遍,这个不行
88	And so, what about this one?	那这个呢?
89	Yes, you can yell out this time.	是的,这次你可以大喊大叫
90	Okay, yes, that's right.	好吧,是的,没错。
91	That's got to be sound.	即得声闻.
92	Good.	不错
93	Okay, so there's the same thing filled in.	好吧,所以有同样的东西填充。
94	Okay, now, so the two things that are both necessary for a sound argument	好吧,现在,所以两件事既需要一个声音辩论
95	or a good argument in so far as soundness goes,	或一个很好的争论,只要声音响亮,
96	truth of the premises and the validity of the argument.	前提的真实性和论证的有效性.
97	Now, the truth of the premises, and I've mentioned this before,	现在,这里的真相, 我之前提到过,
98	is not an interesting matter for logicians or for you,	对逻辑学家或你们来说,这不是一件有趣的事情,
99	given that your interest is in critical reasoning.	因为你对批判性推理感兴趣
100	And the reason for that is that when we determine the truth or falsity of a premise,	原因是,当我们确定一个前提的真相或假象时,
101	it's not necessarily a logical matter.	这不一定是合乎逻辑的事
102	It's not necessarily a philosophical matter at all.	这不一定是一个哲学问题。
103	So, if I say, is the chair blue,	所以,如果我说,椅子是蓝色的,
104	how are you going to determine the truth or falsehood of that?	你将如何确定真相或谎言?
105	It's dead easy.	死难易.
106	There's no trick question here.	这里没有诡计的问题。
107	You're going to look at the chair.	你会看着椅子。
108	That's right.	没错
109	Okay, if I say two plus two equals four, is that true or not?	好吧,如果我说2加2等于4,那是真的还是不是?
110	Okay, yes, it is.	好吧,是的,这是。
111	Okay, and how do you know?	好吧,你怎么会知道?
112	Yeah, I mean, you all know your basic arithmetic.	是啊,我的意思是,你们都知道你的基本算术。
113	Okay, and you might say, okay, all swans are white.	好吧,你可能会说,好吧, 所有天鹅都是白色的。
114	How do you determine the truth of that answer inductively and so on?	如何以诱导的方式确定答案的真相?
115	So, there are lots of different ways in which a premise would be determined to be true or false.	因此,有许多不同的方式可以确定一个前提是真实的还是虚假的.
116	And my job in teaching critical reasoning is not to teach you	我教批判推理的工作不是教你
117	how to look at a premise and decide whether it's true or false.	如何看待一个前提,决定它是真还是假.
118	My job is to teach you how to look at an argument and determine whether it's valid.	我的工作就是教你如何看待一个争论,并确定它是否有效.
119	Okay, are you with me?	好吧,你明白吗?
120	So, when two characteristics of a sound argument,	所以,当一个声音争论的两个特征,
121	one is true premises, one is validity,	一个是真实的前提, 一个是有效性,
122	I'm leaving it to you to ask about true premises.	我把它留给你问关于真实的前提。
123	All I can teach you is what validity looks like, what validity is.	我只能教你什么是有效性,什么是有效性。
124	Okay, validity is of interest to logicians because validity preserves truth.	好吧,有效性是逻辑学家感兴趣的因为有效性维护真理。
125	If an argument is valid, then if its premises are true,	如果一个论点是有效的, 那么如果它的前提是正确的,
126	we can be certain that its conclusion is true.	我们可以肯定,它的结论是正确的。
127	So, it's the if here that's important.	所以,如果这是重要的。
128	If the premises are true, then the conclusion must be true.	如果馆舍是真的,那么结论必须是真实的.
129	And so, the validity of an argument preserves the truth of the premises.	因此,论证的有效性维护了前提的真实性.
130	If there's truth there, it will preserve it.	如果有真相,它会保存它。
131	If there isn't truth there, it won't say anything about the truth of the conclusion.	如果那里没有真理的话,它不会说结论的真相.
132	So, we'll see more about that in a minute.	所以,我们会看到更多关于一分钟。
133	Okay, so validity is truth preserving.	好吧,所以有效性是维护真理。
134	That's why it's useful.	故为用.
135	So, validity is of interest to anyone who's concerned with truth.	所以,任何关心真相的人都对有效性感兴趣.
136	It's not just true premises that concern you if you're interested in truth.	如果你对真相感兴趣那不只是你关心的前提
137	It's also the validity of arguments.	这也是论证的有效性.
138	And that's because we often don't know the truth of our premises,	这是因为我们常常不知道我们房子的真相
139	and we often test the truth of our premises by constructing valid arguments	我们经常通过建立有效的论据来检验我们的前提的真相
140	and testing the truth of the conclusion.	并测试结论的真相。
141	So, let me go through that again.	所以,让我再说一遍。
142	Okay, if an argument is valid, then if the premises are true,	好吧,如果一个论点是有效的, 那么如果前提是真的,
143	the conclusion must be true.	结论必须是真实的。
144	Okay, so we might have a premise that we don't know whether the premise is true or not.	好吧,所以我们可能有一个前提我们不知道这个前提是否是真的。
145	But if we can use that premise as the premise of a valid argument	但是,如果我们能利用这个前提作为有效论点的前提
146	and then test the conclusion of that argument to see whether that's true or false,	然后测试这个论点的结论看看这是不是真的,
147	then if we can show that the conclusion of a valid argument is false, what do we know?	那么如果我们能证明一个有效论点的结论是虚假的,我们怎么知道呢?
148	If we can show that the conclusion of a valid...	如果我们能证明一个有效的结论...
149	Put your hand up.	举手曰.
150	If we can show that the conclusion of a valid argument is false, what do we know?	如果我们能证明一个有效论点的结论是虚假的,我们知道什么?
151	Let me remind you again of the argument is valid if and only if,	让我再次提醒各位,如果而且只有在以下情况下,这一论点才有效:
152	if the premises are true, the conclusion must be true.	如果馆舍是真的,结论必须是真实的。
153	So, if we see that the conclusion of a valid argument is false, what do we know?	因此,如果我们看到一个有效论点的结论是错误的,我们知道什么?
154	Put your hands up when you've got the answer.	答时举手曰.
155	A little bit longer.	稍长.
156	It's quite difficult to play with these concepts in your mind if you're not used to.	如果不习惯的话,在思想中玩这些概念是很困难的.
157	So, okay, right, what do we know?	好吧,好吧,我们知道什么?
158	Who wants to give me the answer?	谁想给我答案?
159	Do you want to have a go?	你想试试吗?
160	Yep.	对
161	Right, at least one of the premises must be false.	对,至少其中一处是伪造的
162	That's right.	没错
163	They might all be false or it might be just one of them is false,	他们可能都是假的也可能只是其中之一是假的
164	but we know that at least one of them must be false.	但我们知道其中至少有一个一定是虚假的
165	So, if an argument is valid and the conclusion is false,	因此,如果一个论点是有效的,结论是虚假的,
166	then we know that at least one of the premises must be false.	那么我们知道至少有一个地方是假的
167	And here's a couple of examples.	下面是几个例子。
168	Okay, smoking causes cancer.	好吧,吸烟会导致癌症。
169	That's a hypothesis.	这是假设
170	Okay, where do we get that from?	好吧,我们从哪里得到的?
171	What sort of argument might that be the conclusion of?	什么样的论点可能是结论?
172	An inductive argument, good.	一个诱导性的辩论,很好。
173	So, we see that this smoker's got cancer, this smoker's got cancer,	因此,我们看到这个吸烟者得了癌症, 这个吸烟者得了癌症,
174	this smoker's got cancer, et cetera,	这个吸烟者得了癌症,等等,
175	and we form the hypothesis smoking causes cancer.	我们假设吸烟会导致癌症
176	Okay, that generates a prediction, doesn't it?	好吧,这产生一个预测,不是吗?
177	If we put that hypothesis as starkly as that, smoking causes cancer,	如果我们把这个假设说得如此严谨吸烟会引起癌症
178	it generates a prediction.	它会产生一个预测。
179	If smoking causes cancer, then every smoker will get cancer, doesn't it?	如果吸烟导致癌症,那么每个吸烟者都会得癌症,不是吗?
180	Oh, yes, it does.	哦,是的,确实如此。
181	No, remember I said if we put the conclusion as starkly as that,	不,记得我说过如果我们把结论说得这么清楚
182	sorry, the premise as starkly as that,	抱歉如此严酷的前提
183	that's the prediction it generates.	这就是它的预测。
184	Okay, the test or the conclusion of this argument is each smoker gets cancer.	好吧,测试或结论这个论点是每个吸烟者都得癌症。
185	Okay, now if we look at smokers,	好吧,现在如果我们看看吸烟者,
186	we see that some of them get cancer and some of them don't, don't we?	我们发现他们中有些人得了癌症而有些人没有,不是吗?
187	Okay, so what do we know?	好吧,那么我们知道什么?
188	This is a valid argument, isn't it?	这是一个有效的论点,不是吗?
189	Yeah, okay, but we've seen that the conclusion is false,	是的,好吧,但我们已经看到的结论是虚假的,
190	so what do we know?	所以,我们知道什么?
191	That one of the premises is, now it might be this,	其中一个是,现在可能是这个,
192	it's not the case that smoking causes cancer,	吸烟不会引起癌症,
193	or it might be the case that smoking could cause cancer	或者吸烟可能引发癌症
194	without it being the case that every smoker would cause cancer.	而不是每个吸烟者都会得癌症
195	So what do we do if we're researchers at this point?	那么,如果我们是研究者,我们该怎么办呢?
196	What might be the case?	可能是什么情况?
197	We've got a correlation between smoking and cancer, haven't we?	我们有吸烟和癌症的关联不是吗?
198	Otherwise we wouldn't have that first premise.	否则我们就不会有第一个前提
199	But it was not going to be an exception as correlation, is it?	但它不会是一个例外作为相关性,是吗?
200	We've seen that.	我们已经看到了。
201	So we could say, we could decide to jettison the idea that smoke,	所以我们可以说我们可以决定放弃烟雾的想法
202	that causation is sufficient.	因果关系就足够了。
203	So we might want to say, well, okay, it's possible for A to cause B	所以,我们也许想说, 好了,好吧,这是可能的 A造成B
204	without it being the case that A is sufficient for B.	但A对B来说就足够了
205	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
206	So we could jettison premise two.	所以我们可以放弃前提二。
207	So possibly A can cause B without it being the case	所以,也许A可以引起B 没有它的情况
208	that you always get B if you get A.	你总是得到B 如果你得到A。
209	Actually, we probably wouldn't want to jettison that, would we?	事实上,我们可能不想放弃,是吗?
210	Why not?	为什么不呢?
211	Okay, I think I'm going about this,	好吧,我想我要去这个,
212	looking at your faces I'm getting a bit wrong.	看你们的脸我有点错了
213	Okay, let's say that we decide to jettison that.	好吧,假设我们决定放弃它。
214	Does that mean we're going to say that's false?	这是否意味着我们要说那是假的?
215	What are we going to say instead?	我们要说什么呢?
216	We could say that.	我们可以这么说
217	Or we could say that smoking plus something else.	或者我们可以说吸烟再加上别的东西。
218	We could say we know the hypothesis is going in the right direction.	我们可以说,我们知道假设的方向是正确的。
219	It's smoking plus.	这是吸烟加。
220	I mean, maybe there's some genetic characteristic of people who smoke	我的意思是,也许有遗传特征的人吸烟
221	and get cancer that's different from those who smoke	并得癌症与吸烟者不同
222	and don't get cancer or something along those lines.	并且不要得癌症或任何类似的东西。
223	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
224	So we've got something for which we've got reason to believe it's true,	因此,我们得到了一些东西我们有理由相信这是真的,
225	but we're not sure, or actually given what we know,	但我们不确定或者说我们所知道的
226	we're pretty sure it isn't entirely true.	我们很确定这不是真的
227	But if we put these together in a valid argument,	但是,如果我们把这些在一个有效的论据,
228	we get that which we know to be false,	我们得到我们知道是虚假的,
229	so we know that either one of those has got to be false.	所以我们知道其中任何一个都是假的
230	We could play around with something	我们可以玩一些东西
231	that's the business of philosophers to play around with,	那是哲学家们要玩的游戏
232	namely our concept of causation,	即我们的因果关系概念,
233	and say, well, okay, there can be causes	并说,好吧,可以有原因
234	that don't always have their effects,	并不总是有它们的效果,
235	that don't necessitate their effects.	这并不需要他们的效果。
236	Or we could stick to being empirical	或者我们可以坚持经验主义
237	and say there's something in addition to smoking	说除了抽烟还有别的东西
238	that causes cancer.	导致癌症。
239	You with me?	你明白吗?
240	If smoking always caused cancer,	如果吸烟总是引起癌症,
241	you couldn't have a smoker that didn't get cancer,	你不可能有一个没有癌症的吸烟者,
242	so that would be true, wouldn't it?	所以这是真的,不是吗?
243	So because that's false,	所以因为那是假的
244	we know that one or the other of these is true,	我们知道其中之一或另一是真的,
245	and if you're a philosopher, you might want to say,	如果你是一个哲学家, 你可能会想说,
246	well, maybe causes don't necessitate their effects	好吧,也许原因并不需要它们的效果
247	could premise to be true.	有可能是事实
248	Sorry, false.	对不起,假的。
249	If you're a scientist, you're much more likely to say,	如果你是一个科学家, 你更有可能说,
250	actually, causes do necessitate their effects,	实际上,原因确实需要它们的效果,
251	therefore it's not smoking on its own that causes cancer.	因此它不会自己吸烟导致癌症。
252	There must be something in addition to smoking	除了抽烟一定还有其他事
253	that goes to causing cancer,	导致癌症,
254	necessitates its effects.	这需要它的效果。
255	Well, you say by definition,	你说从定义上来说
256	but of course part of the job of a philosopher	当然是哲学家工作的一部分
257	is to say, well, is it true	是说,嗯,这是真的
258	that that's the correct definition of cause?	这就是原因的正确定义?
259	Could there be?	有吗?
260	No, if it doesn't cause it, it's not a cause it,	不,如果它不引起它, 它不是一个原因,
261	but if it doesn't necessitate it, might it cause it?	但是,如果它不需要它, 它会造成它吗?
262	I mean, if we look at quantum mechanics, for example,	我的意思是,如果我们看量子力学,例如,
263	here are some ideas that there may be causation	这里有一些想法可能有因果关系
264	that doesn't necessitate,	没必要
265	and one of the big questions of philosophy,	和哲学的一个大问题,
266	and if you ever do an introduction to philosophy	如果你做过哲学的介绍
267	as opposed to an introduction to critical reasoning course,	而不是引入批判推理课程,
268	you might look at questions of,	你也许可以看看问题,
269	could there be backwards causation, for example?	例如,是否有倒退的因果关系?
270	Could the effect come before a cause?	效果会先于原因吗?
271	Could there be non-necessitating causes?	会不会有不必要的原因?
272	What actually is the causal relation?	什么是因果关系?
273	These are all philosophical questions that are...	这些都是哲学问题...
274	No, no, they don't have a different concept of cause.	不,不,他们没有不同的事业概念。
275	What they do is they unpack the concept of cause	他们做的是解开事业的概念
276	that we think we have,	我们认为我们有,
277	and I quite agree that the common concept of cause	我同意共同的事业概念
278	is that cause is necessitating.	这是必须的。
279	Yeah, absolutely.	当然
280	Well, then what's the cause?	那么,是什么原因吗?
281	What do you mean by random here?	这是什么意思?
282	Well, then you're suggesting that a cause	好吧,那么你建议一个事业
283	isn't necessitating,	没必要
284	which is what's...	这就是...
285	I've forgotten your name, sorry.	我忘了你的名字,对不起。
286	Brian is questioning.	布莱恩在问话
287	Well, so you disagree on the meaning of the word cause.	那么,你不同意这个词的意义。
288	You can have that conversation later in the common room,	你可以晚点在客厅里谈
289	but I'll tell you now that if you want to find out	但我现在会告诉你如果你想知道
290	what the answer to that is,	答案是,
291	you should come to a philosophy weekend	你应该来参加哲学周末
292	on the nature of causation,	关于因果关系的性质,
293	because it's a big issue, that one.	因为它是一个大问题,那个。
294	Very big one.	非常大一个。
295	You had a question.	你有一个问题。
296	Well, that would lead you...	那会引领你...
297	That's why you know that each smoker doesn't,	所以你才知道每个吸烟者不会
298	but if you're evaluating the inductive argument	但是如果你在评估引言
299	that leads to that,	这导致,
300	you might want to deal with percentages and so on, exactly.	你可能会想处理百分比等等,准确的说。
301	But what I'm pointing out here is that you form a hypothesis,	但我要指出的是你是一个假设,
302	you generate a prediction,	你应当用一个预言,
303	which is going to be based on your understanding	这是基于你的理解
304	of causation and so on,	因果关系等,
305	and then you test that prediction,	然后测试这个预测,
306	and look, what you've done is you've constructed	你看,你所做的是你建造了
307	a deductive argument,	一种推论,
308	and as long as it's valid,	只要它有效的话
309	and you test the conclusion,	你将考验这个结论,
310	if the conclusion comes out false,	如果结论出错
311	then you know that at least one of your premises is false.	那么你知道你至少一个地方是假的
312	Either your hypothesis is false,	要么你的假说是假的
313	or there's something fishy about causation,	或有可疑的因果关系,
314	and you're almost certainly not going to go for that one	你几乎肯定不会去那个
315	unless you're a philosopher.	除非你是个哲学家
316	Okay, here's another one.	好吧,这是另一个。
317	All women are passive.	所有女人都是被动的
318	Mrs Thatcher is a woman.	撒切尔太太是个女人
319	Therefore, Mrs Thatcher is passive.	因此,撒切尔夫人是被动的。
320	Okay, you've got a hypothesis here.	好吧,你有一个假设。
321	Okay, you've generated that on what grounds?	好吧,你创造了什么理由?
322	None at all, he says.	他说没有
323	The grounds of prejudice or something like that.	偏见的理由或类似的东西。
324	Say inductive grounds as well.	说感应法也.
325	This is observation, isn't it?	这是观察,不是吗?
326	And do we have a valid argument here?	我们在这里有合理的论点吗?
327	Yeah, if these premises are true,	是的如果这些房子是真的
328	this conclusion must be true.	这一结论必须是真实的。
329	Okay, the conclusion isn't true.	好吧,结论不是真的。
330	I think you'd probably agree with me.	我想你可能同意我的观点
331	Therefore, one or other of these must be false,	因此,其中之一必须是虚假的,
332	and as we know, an awful lot of people talked about	正如我们所知很多人谈论
333	Mrs Thatcher as being the best man in the cabinet,	撒切尔夫人是内阁的伴郎
334	da da da da.	达达达达.
335	In effect, they were relying on this argument	实际上,他们依靠的是这一论点。
336	and suggesting that instead of that one being false,	并暗示,与其捏造,
337	it's this one that's false.	是这个是假的
338	And here's another one.	这里还有一个。
339	All Labour Party members are left-wing,	所有工党成员都是左翼,
340	or all socialists are left-wing.	或者所有社会主义者都是左翼的
341	Tony Blair is a socialist.	托尼·布莱尔是一个社会主义者.
342	Therefore, Tony Blair is left-wing.	因此,托尼·布莱尔是左翼.
343	And if you think Tony Blair is far too right-wing	如果你认为托尼·布莱尔太右翼了
344	to be a socialist, you're going to say that	成为社会主义者,你会说
345	Tony Blair isn't a socialist	托尼·布莱尔不是社会主义者
346	rather than not all socialists, da da da da.	而不是所有社会主义者,达达达达。
347	That came off the top of my head.	我从头顶上掉下来了
348	I may have got bits of that wrong,	我可能搞错了
349	but I hope you can see the general thrust of it.	但我希望你能看到它的总方向。
350	As we're going to see in a minute,	我们马上就会看到
351	you can have a valid argument,	你可以有一个有效的论据,
352	the conclusion of which is false.	其结论是虚假的。
353	So you might ask, well, then,	所以,你可能会问, 那么,
354	what's the point of a valid argument?	有效论证有何意义.
355	Why should we be interested in validity	我们为什么要对有效性感兴趣?
356	if it can generate arguments,	如果它能产生论据,
357	the conclusion to which is false?	其结论是错的?
358	And I'm saying, well, actually,	我说的是,其实,
359	the discovery of a valid argument	发现有效的参数
360	that its conclusion is false	其结论是错误的
361	can be hugely important.	这很重要
362	And the reason it can be important	和原因它可以是重要的
363	is that we often test our premises	就是我们经常测试自己的房子
364	by constructing a valid argument	通过构建一个有效的参数
365	and testing the conclusion.	并测试结论。
366	Okay, so I just...	好吧,所以我刚...
367	Well, I just made it clear,	嗯,我只是说清楚了,
368	just to make it clear that	只是为了说明
369	we were testing a hypothesis	我们在测试一个假设
370	by constructing a valid argument	通过构建一个有效的参数
371	showing the conclusion was false	显示结论不正确
372	and then seeing that we can question	然后看到我们可以质疑
373	either or both of the premises.	或两处都行
374	So you can just substitute	这样你就可以代替了
375	premise, premise, conclusion,	前提,前提,结论,
376	no problem, exactly the same.	没有问题,完全一样。
377	So it's just that we use premises	所以,这只是我们使用房地
378	in different ways, don't we?	不同的方式,不是吗?
379	Sometimes we use premises as hypotheses,	有时我们把场地当作假设
380	sometimes we use them as predictions,	有时我们用它们做预测
381	and so on.	诸如来.
382	Okay, so I hope I've convinced you	好吧,我希望我已经说服你
383	that the relation of validity	有效性的关系
384	is important to you	对你很重要
385	if you're concerned about truth.	如果你担心真相的话
386	And what makes it important	是什么让它重要
387	is that validity preserves truth.	有效性是维护真理的。
388	If there's truth in the premises,	如果这里有真相的话
389	there will be truth in the conclusion.	在结论中会有真理。
390	If there isn't truth in the premises,	如果这里没有真相
391	there won't necessarily be truth	也不一定是事实
392	in the conclusion,	在结论中,
393	and that might tell you	这可能告诉你
394	that the premises are not true,	以物配主,
395	which might be very useful information.	这可能是非常有用的信息。
396	In fact, it is often very useful information	事实上,它往往是非常有用的信息
397	because, of course, the whole of science	因为,当然,整个科学
398	involves testing hypotheses	涉及测试假设
399	and hoping, some would say, to falsify them.	有人说,他们想伪造经文。
400	Okay, so why is this relationship	好吧,为什么是这种关系
401	of validity so important?	效力如此重要?
402	What exactly is it?	到底是什么东西?
403	Well, there are different theories	有不同的理论
404	of the nature of validity,	有效性的性质,
405	and there are some problems,	有一些问题,
406	as we'll see later on,	我们以后再看
407	with the notion of validity.	与有效性的概念。
408	But what I'm going to give you now	但我现在会给你什么
409	is the best theory that we can come up with.	是我们能找到的最好的理论
410	An argument is valid if and only if	如果且只有在
411	and notice this logical phrase here,	注意这个逻辑短语,
412	if and only if there is no possible situation	如果而且只有在没有可能的情况下
413	in which all its premises are true,	在那部天经里,万物确是真实的,
414	remember, it must be all of them,	记住一定是他们所有人
415	and its conclusion false.	和它的结论是假的。
416	Okay, that's a claim about a valid argument.	好吧,这是一个权利主张一个有效的论据。
417	Okay, let's move on.	好吧,让我们继续前进。
418	Okay, two things to be aware of.	好吧,有两件事要注意
419	Firstly, it's the possibility	首先,这是可能的
420	of the combination of true premises	综合实际房地
421	and false conclusion	和虚假结论
422	that's ruled out by an argument	这被一个争论排除了
423	being valid, okay?	有效,好吗?
424	So it's not that it must have true premises	所以不是说它必须有真实的前提
425	or it must have a true conclusion.	或者它必须有一个真实的结论。
426	What it must have in order to be valid	必须有它才能有效
427	is true premises, sorry,	是真实的前提,对不起,
428	what it must not have in order to be valid	它必须拥有才能有效
429	is the combination of true premises	是真实前提的组合
430	and false conclusion.	和虚假的结论。
431	That's completely ruled out	这完全排除了
432	by an argument being valid.	理由成立
433	And we're going to do some exercise in a minute.	我们马上就要做一些锻炼。
434	Also, the second thing to note	还有,第二件事值得注意
435	and the second thing to be aware of,	和第二件事情,
436	and this is going to trip you up,	这会把你绊倒的
437	boy, are you going to leave today	孩子,你今天要离开吗?
438	having felt you've really had a mental gymnastics,	觉得你真的有精神体操,
439	because you're all going to get this wrong, probably.	因为你们可能都搞错了
440	Maybe you won't.	也许你不会。
441	I mean, maybe you're cleverer than most people are,	我是说也许你比大多数人都聪明
442	but every class I've ever taught this to	但我教过的每一门课
443	starts off by getting it wrong	说错了才开始
444	in almost every aspect.	几乎每个方面
445	So don't be worried if you do.	所以不要担心,如果你这样做。
446	It's the possibility of the combination	这是结合的可能性
447	of true premises and false conclusions	真实前提和虚假结论
448	that's ruled out,	这是排除,
449	not just the actuality of that combination, okay?	不只是这个组合的实际情况,好吗?
450	So it's not just that the premises,	因此,不仅仅是房地,
451	as a matter of fact, are true,	事实上,是真的
452	and the conclusion, as a matter of fact,	和结论,事实上,
453	is false, that's ruled out.	这是虚假的,这是排除的。
454	It's the very possibility of the premises being true	房子是真实存在的
455	and the conclusion false that's ruled out, okay?	和结论的假排除,好吗?
456	Big difference between actuality and possibility.	实际性与可能性的差别很大.
457	Marianne is actually wearing a skirt today,	玛丽安今天穿裙子
458	but she might have been wearing jeans, okay?	但她可能穿着牛仔裤,好吗?
459	So there is a possible world in which Marianne's wearing jeans,	在玛丽安穿着牛仔裤的世界里
460	even though in the actual world she's wearing a skirt.	虽然在现实世界里她穿着裙子
461	So, faced with an argument	所以,面对一个争论
462	whose validity we're trying to determine,	我们试图确定谁的有效性,
463	we've got to ask, not just are the premises true	我们不得不问, 不只是房子是真的
464	and the conclusion false together in actuality,	和妄言,
465	but could the premises be true	但这里是否是真的
466	and the conclusion false together in some situation?	在某种情况下,结论是错的?
467	Okay, do you see the difference?	好吧,你看到了区别吗?
468	You're all looking very worried.	你们看起来都很担心
469	Okay, let's try a few, let's test a few.	好吧,让我们试试几个, 让我们测试几个。
470	Okay, I'm going to leave that with you.	好吧,我把它留给你。
471	You have a look.	你来看看。
472	Put your hands up when you think,	把手举起来
473	well, actually, let's do the first one.	好吧,实际上,让我们做第一个。
474	Do you think the arguments,	你认为那些争论,
475	an argument could be valid if all its premises are false?	如果其所有前提都是虚假的,则论据是有效的?
476	Put your hands up if you think you've got the answer.	如果你觉得有答案就把手举起来
477	Don't yell out, and don't worry if you're a bit slower.	不要大喊大叫, 不要担心,如果你有点慢。
478	Everyone thinks at different speeds.	每个人都认为速度不同。
479	Okay, if the premises of an argument are false,	好吧如果辩论的前提是假的
480	could the argument be valid?	这一论点是否有效?
481	Could the argument be valid if the premises are false?	如果假设是虚假的,这个论点是否有效?
482	Okay, those who said yes are right.	好吧,那些答应的人是对的。
483	Okay, you could have a valid argument	好吧,你可以有一个有效的论证
484	in which the premises are false.	其中的建筑是假的。
485	The only thing that's ruled out by an argument being valid	唯一能排除的就是证据
486	is the possibility of the combination	组合的可能性
487	of the premises being true and the conclusion false.	假设是真实的,结论是虚假的。
488	Okay, so the only thing that's ruled out	好吧,所以唯一排除的东西
489	by an argument being valid is the possibility,	如果一个论点是有效的,则有可能,
490	not the actuality, of the combination	组合的实际情况
491	of the premises being true and the conclusion false.	假设是真实的,结论是虚假的。
492	So you could have a valid argument,	这样你就可以有有效的争论,
493	the premises of which are all false.	那些地方都是虚假的。
494	If it's Friday, Marianne's wearing jeans,	如果星期五,玛丽安穿着牛仔裤,
495	it is Friday, therefore Marianne is wearing jeans.	今天是星期五,所以玛丽安穿着牛仔裤
496	Isn't that an argument that has the two false premises	这不就是两个错误的假设吗?
497	but is valid?	但有效吗?
498	Okay, right, what about the following?	好吧,好吧,接下来呢?
499	The premises of the argument are true	论点的前提是真的
500	and the conclusion is true.	而结论是真实的。
501	Okay, remember the question.	好吧,记住这个问题。
502	Do you think an argument of this sort could be valid?	你觉得这种争论有道理吗?
503	The premises are true and the conclusion is true.	处所是真,结论是真.
504	Okay, could it be valid or not?	好吧,它是否有效吗?
505	Well done, well done.	干得不错
506	You're getting there.	你到达那里。
507	Okay, that's pretty spectacular.	好吧,这是相当壮观的。
508	Okay, good.	好吧,不错。
509	What about the last one?	最后一个呢?
510	The premises of the argument are true	论点的前提是真的
511	and the conclusion false.	和结论虚假。
512	Put your hand up, don't yell out the answer.	举起手来,不要大喊大叫
513	Okay, some of you say yes, some of you say no.	好吧,有些人说是,有些人说不。
514	The ones who say no in this case are right.	此中说不者对.
515	Okay, the only thing that's ruled out	好吧,唯一能排除的东西
516	by the definition of validity	根据有效性的定义
517	is an argument that's valid	是一个有效的参数
518	where there's a possibility,	如果有可能的话,
519	and in this case there's an actuality,	而在这种情况下,有一个事实,
520	of the combination of premises that are true	合并的房地
521	and conclusion false.	和结论虚假。
522	That's the only one that's ruled out	只有这个被排除了
523	and that is this one.	这是这个。
524	So an argument of this kind couldn't be valid.	因此这种争论是无效的.
525	The other two could.	其他两个可以。
526	Okay, don't worry, there's plenty of time to practice.	好了别担心有很多时间练习
527	We can spend the rest of this.	我们可以花掉剩下的时间
528	Okay, so let's think again.	好吧,让我们再想想。
529	If the premises could be true together with,	如果这栋房子是真实的,
530	so do you remember I said two things	你还记得我说过两句话吗?
531	you need to be aware of, what are they?	你需要知道,他们是什么?
532	Two things I said you've got to be aware of, what are they?	我说了两件事,你要知道,是什么?
533	Look back on your notes if you can't remember,	回首你的笔记如果你不记得,
534	because I really meant it	因为我是认真的
535	that you must be aware of these things.	你必须知道这些事情。
536	Two things you must be aware of.	两件事你必须知道。
537	It's the combination of true premises	这是真实的建筑组合
538	and false conclusion that's ruled out,	和错误的结论排除,
539	not either one or the other, but both together.	不是两者,而是两者并存。
540	So if the premises could be true together	所以,如果房子可以真实在一起
541	with the conclusions being false,	那些结论是虚假的,
542	okay, that's one of the things you're looking out for.	好吧,这是你要注意的事情之一。
543	What's the other one?	另一个是什么?
544	It's the possibility of the combination	这是结合的可能性
545	rather than the actuality.	而不是现实
546	So if the conclusion could be false	所以如果结论是虚假的
547	together with the premises being true,	与真实的房屋,
548	if it could be the case, not just that if it is the case,	如果有可能, 不只是如果是这样,
549	if it could be the case, then the argument is valid.	如果有可能的话,那么这个论点是有效的。
550	Is that right?	是吗?
551	Sorry, I lost track myself there.	对不起,我失去了追踪自己在那里。
552	Yes, because it's only deductive arguments	是的,因为这只是推理
553	that are truth preserving,	是维护真理的,
554	where the conclusion is guaranteed	在结论得到保证的情况下
555	by the truth of the premises.	以律所的真理发誓,
556	Some people do talk about inductive validity	有些人会说感应力
557	and deductive validity, but if they do,	并减除效力,如果他们做了,
558	they're using valid in two different senses.	它们在两种不同意义上是有效的。
559	I think it's actually much better to stick to the idea	我觉得坚持这个想法要好得多
560	of validity with deductive arguments	附有推理理由的有效性
561	and talk about inductive strength	并谈论感应力
562	rather than inductive validity,	而不是诱导有效性,
563	because validity is an either-or thing,	因为有效性是非一物,
564	whereas strength is a matter of degree,	力量是程度问题,
565	and inductive arguments are more or less strong,	或多或少的引言,
566	whereas deductive arguments are either valid or invalid.	而推理论点是有效的或无效的。
567	What does an argument have to have to be sound?	辩论必须声音好听吗?
568	Can anyone tell me?	有人能告诉我吗?
569	Two things it needs in order to be sound.	以是声闻所须二事.
570	True premises and be valid.	真实的前提和有效。
571	That's right.	没错
572	So that's soundness, and that's fairly easy.	这就是声音,这相当容易。
573	We can put that on one side.	我们可以把它放在一边。
574	We're now looking at validity, one of those characteristics,	我们现在在研究有效性其中一个特征
575	because, well, as I'm about to show you,	因为我要告诉你
576	it doesn't mean it necessarily is valid.	这并不意味着它必然是有效的。
577	It could be valid.	这可能是有效的。
578	Valid is an either-or thing for every argument,	任何争论,都是有效的。
579	but if you have a situation	但是,如果你有一个情况
580	where the premises have one truth value	馆舍有一个真实价值的地方
581	and the conclusion another truth value,	和结论另一个真理价值,
582	that could encompass different arguments.	可能包含不同的论点。
583	I'll show you exactly what I mean.	我让你明白我的意思
584	Okay, so just keep this in mind.	好吧,所以记住这一点。
585	If the premises could be true,	如果这房子是真的
586	together with the conclusions being false,	和结论都是虚假的,
587	then the argument is invalid.	参数无效。
588	Otherwise, it could be valid.	否则,它可能有效。
589	Okay, now this is a bit of a trick question,	好吧,现在这是一个有点诡计的问题,
590	and I'll explain why actually it isn't a trick question afterwards.	我会解释为什么它实际上不是一个骗局问题之后。
591	Okay, here's an argument.	好吧,这里有一个争论。
592	Now remember, I told you right at the very beginning	记住,我一开始就告诉过你
593	that anything can be an argument, depending on the context.	任何事情都可以是争论,取决于背景。
594	So you may not find this a very convincing argument,	所以,你可能不认为这是非常令人信服的论点,
595	but believe me, it's an argument,	但相信我这是个争论
596	because 2 plus 2 equals 5, therefore grass is green.	因为2加2等于5 所以草是绿色的
597	Okay, that's an argument.	好吧,这是一个争论。
598	Could that be valid?	这是否有效?
599	Okay, now don't try and be clever here.	好吧,现在不要尝试和聪明在这里。
600	Don't try and be clever here.	别在这里耍聪明
601	Work it out actually from the definition,	从定义出发
602	which you can't read there, but you can read in your notes.	你无法读到的, 但你可以在你的笔记中读到。
603	So have a look at that.	看看这个
604	Is there a situation in which the premises could be true	是否有一种情况房地可能是真实的
605	and the conclusion false?	而结论是假的吗?
606	Is there a situation,	有情况吗?
607	any situation in which that is true and that is false?	是否有这种情况是真实和虚假的?
608	Could it be that that is true and that false	会不会是真假
609	in any possible world?	在任何可能的世界吗?
610	No.	没有
611	Okay, so is that argument valid?	好吧,那么这个论点是否成立?
612	Who said yes?	谁答应了?
613	Somebody said yes, and if they would admit to it,	有人答应了如果他们承认的话
614	I would then give them a clap.	我会给他们鼓掌。
615	Well done.	干得不错
616	It is.	没错
617	That's a valid argument.	辩才有效.
618	And what that shows you is that actually	这说明你实际上
619	for an argument to be good,	以辩才为善,
620	it needs more than validity.	它需要的不仅仅是有效性。
621	Okay, that is a perfectly valid argument,	好吧,这是一个完全合理的论据,
622	because there's no possible situation	因为没有可能的情况
623	in which that premise is true and that conclusion false.	其前提是正确的,结论是错误的。
624	And the reason for that is there's no possible situation	原因就是没有可能的情况
625	in which that premise is true, is there?	那个前提是真的,是吗?
626	That premise is a contradiction.	这个前提是一个矛盾。
627	And you may have heard the saying,	你或许已经听到这句话,
628	anything follows from a contradiction.	任何事物都源于矛盾
629	And the reason anything follows from a contradiction	任何原因都源于矛盾
630	is that a contradiction must be false.	矛盾必须是虚假的。
631	So there's no possible situation	所以没有可能的情况
632	in which the premise is true.	假设是真实的。
633	Therefore, there couldn't possibly be a situation	因此,不可能出现这样的情况
634	in which the premise is true and the conclusion false.	假设是真实的,结论是虚假的。
635	Could there?	可以吗?
636	So that satisfies the definition of validity.	这样就满足了有效性的定义。
637	And that's what I want you to go on.	这就是我想要你继续。
638	Shall I tell you why you're all sitting there	让我告诉你为什么你们都坐在那里
639	looking so worried?	这么担心?
640	I feel for you, I really feel for you,	我为你感到,我真的为你感到,
641	but I went through this.	但我经历了这个。
642	Honestly, I'll tell you, when I was an undergraduate,	老实说,我会告诉你, 当我是本科生,
643	we did logic in my first term.	我第一个学期就讲逻辑
644	And I sat there looking a bit like some of you	我坐在那里看起来有点像你们
645	were looking there through the whole term thinking,	看着那整个术语的想法,
646	oh, what have I got myself in for?	哦,我为什么进来?
647	And then during the vacation,	然后在度假期间
648	I sat there with my logic book	我坐在那里我的逻辑书
649	and I worked through it step by step by step.	我一步一步地通过它。
650	And I went over it again and again and again and again.	我一遍又一遍地重复一遍地重复一遍地重复一遍地重复一遍地重复一遍。
651	And the thing that I had been missing all along	而我一直缺失的东西
652	was that I should have been taking more account	我本来应该多考虑一下
653	of definitions than I had been.	比我更了解定义
654	I was doing what you're almost certainly doing now.	我在做你现在几乎肯定做的事
655	True is a good thing, isn't it?	真是个好东西,不是吗?
656	True sort of gives you a nice warm feeling,	真正让你感觉温暖
657	all sort of warm and cuddly.	那种温暖和可爱。
658	And validity gives you that same sort of nice warm feeling,	有效性给你同样的温暖感
659	doesn't it?	对不对?
660	So therefore, anything that's true is valid.	因此,任何真实的东西都是有效的.
661	And anything that's valid is true.	任何有效的东西都是真实的
662	And all this business about false premises	和所有关于假馆舍的事
663	has nothing to do with...	这跟...
664	Do you think this might be behind what you...	你觉得这可能是你...
665	Yes.	对
666	Okay, does that help?	好吧有用吗?
667	So try and drop the fact	所以试着放弃事实
668	that both truth and validity make you feel all warm inside	既真实又有效让你内心充满温暖
669	and just go for the definition.	并只是去定义。
670	Does this argument satisfy the definition of validity	这一论点是否满足有效性的定义
671	or does it not?	还是没有?
672	Could this argument satisfy the definition of validity	这个论点能否满足有效性的定义
673	or could it not?	还是不能?
674	That's what you answer on.	这就是你的回答。
675	Not on your nice warm feelings	不是因为你温暖的感情
676	of truth and validity going together	真理与有效性
677	because sadly, they don't,	因为可悲的是,他们没有,
678	except in the one case of truth being preserved	惟有一件事,是真实的,
679	by true premises.	由真实的前提。
680	Okay, does everyone see why this is a valid argument?	好了,大家都明白为什么这是个合理的论点吗?
681	Would you like me to go over it again?	你要我再来一遍吗?
682	Yeah, okay.	是啊,没关系。
683	Sorry.	对不起
684	Okay.	摆
685	Okay, the definition of validity	好吧,有效的定义
686	is there is no possible...	有没有可能...
687	An argument is valid if and only if	如果且只有在
688	there's no possible situation in which the premises are true	没有可能的情况房地是真的
689	and the conclusion false.	和结论虚假。
690	And what matters is that it's a possible situation,	重要的是,这是一个可能的情况,
691	not an actual situation,	不是实际情况,
692	and that it's the combination of true premises	和它是结合真正的前提
693	and false conclusion that's ruled out, okay?	和错误的结论这是排除,好吗?
694	That's the definition of validity.	这就是有效性的定义.
695	Now, here we have an argument.	现在,我们有一个争论。
696	Okay, could this be valid?	好吧,这是有效的吗?
697	Well, is there a situation, could it be the case,	那么,有没有情况, 可能是这样,
698	could it be the case, that's what I'm asking,	会不会是这样,这就是我要问的,
699	that this premise is true	这个前提是真的
700	together with this premise being false?	再加上这个前提是假的?
701	Well, you look at this,	你看看这个
702	and you see that there actually isn't any situation ever,	你看,实际上没有任何情况,
703	anywhere, in which this could be true.	在任何地方, 这可能是真的。
704	Is that true?	是吗?
705	So how could there ever be a situation	怎么会有这样的情况
706	in which that's true and that's false?	在其中,这是真实的,这是虚假的?
707	Couldn't be, could there?	不会吧?
708	With me?	跟我来?
709	Yeah, and I can see,	我看得出来
710	it's getting there, isn't it?	已经到了,不是吗?
711	I can see understanding dawning	我可以看到理解的黎明
712	on about 50% of faces.	大约50%的脸。
713	The other 50% are looking pretty sick.	其余50%看起来很恶心
714	Okay, if I say that something's P and Q,	好吧,如果我说的东西的P和Q,
715	and then I say that, okay, is that true?	然后我说,好吧,这是真的吗?
716	You don't know, do you?	你不知道,是吗?
717	But if I then say, not P, and say, is this true?	但是如果我说,不是P,是说,这是真的吗?
718	What do you know?	你们知道什么?
719	No, you don't know, not Q.	不,你不知道,没有Q。
720	But do you know the truth value of this?	但你知道这个的真相价值吗?
721	If P's false, what's the truth value of P and Q?	如果P的虚假,P和Q的真实价值是什么?
722	False, it must be, mustn't it?	一定是假的,不是吗?
723	Because a necessary condition for P and Q being true	因为P和Q是真实的必要条件
724	is that P and Q are true.	P和Q是真实的。
725	Sorry.	对不起
726	But it is, isn't it?	但它是,不是吗?
727	You all knew that immediately.	你们都知道了
728	In the same way, if I say there's no possible situation	同样,如果我说没有可能的情况
729	where this is true and this is false,	如果这是真的,而这是假的,
730	well, if there's no possible situation	如果没有可能的话
731	in which this is true,	这确是真实的,
732	then how could there be a situation	那怎么会有这样的情况
733	in which this is true and this is false?	这是真的,这是假的。
734	Another couple of lights went on, then.	还有两盏灯继续着
735	I'll do another one.	我再来一杯
736	Let's see another one.	我们再看看
737	Hang on, where are we?	等等,我们在哪?
738	Could this argument be valid?	这种论点是否有效?
739	Put your hands up when you've got the answer.	答时举手曰.
740	Don't yell it out.	别大喊大叫
741	Just, dear, nobody's got it yet.	只是,亲爱的,还没有人得到它。
742	Oh, yeah, one hand's up.	哦,是的,一只手起来。
743	Well done.	干得不错
744	Okay, so you're asking yourself,	好吧,所以你问自己,
745	could there be a possible situation	有没有可能出现这种情况
746	in which that is true and that's false?	在其中,这是真实的,这是虚假的?
747	Is there any possible situation	有没有任何可能的情况
748	in which that's true and that's false together?	在其中,这是真实的, 这是虚假的在一起?
749	Is there any situation in which that's true	是否有这种情况是真实的
750	and that's false together?	那都是假的吗?
751	Put your hand up when you've got the answer.	答时举手曰.
752	Yes.	对
753	No, you're doing exactly what I'm warning against.	不,你正在做我警告的。
754	Did you hear what the lady said?	你听到那位女士说什么了吗?
755	She said she thought a valid argument	她说她认为一个合理的论点
756	was where the premises were true	房子是真实的
757	and the conclusion true.	和结论是正确的。
758	Now, that's a classic example of thinking	现在,这是典型的思考例子
759	that because validity is good and truth is good,	因为真理是好的,真理是好的,
760	therefore a valid argument must have	因此,有效的论据必须
761	true premises and true conclusion.	真正的前提和真正的结论。
762	Do you see how that works?	你看到这怎么工作了吗?
763	But actually, a valid argument	但实际上,一个有效的论点
764	doesn't have true premises and true conclusions.	没有真正的前提也没有真正的结论
765	What is a valid argument?	什么是有效的论据?
766	You give me the definition of a valid argument.	你给我一个有效辩论的定义
767	You've got it written down in front of you.	你面前写下来了
768	Oh, no, you haven't got it written there anymore.	哦,不,你已经没有写了。
769	It's on slide 19.	在19号幻灯片上
770	I'm glad you asked me that question	我很高兴你问我这个问题
771	because you will be far from the only person in the room	因为你会远离房间里唯一的一个人
772	who's thinking exactly what you're thinking.	谁在想你在想什么。
773	And the two things that are important	还有两件事很重要
774	is that we're looking at the combination	也就是我们在看的组合
775	of true premises and false conclusion,	是真实的,是虚假的,
776	and we're looking at the possibility of,	而我们正在研究的可能性,
777	not the actuality of.	事实并非如此。
778	This is why the definition is important.	这就是为什么定义很重要。
779	And as soon as you understand that,	当你明白这一点,
780	as soon as you stop thinking of a valid argument	一旦你不再想一个有效的论据
781	as having true premises and true conclusion,	有真实的前提和结论,
782	you will see what's going on here.	你会看到这是怎么回事。
783	I promise you.	我保证
784	It's a bit rash, isn't it?	有点疹子,不是吗?
785	Don't give me the answer yet.	先别答.
786	Okay, put your hand up if you've got the answer to that.	好吧,把手举起来如果你有答案。
787	Could that argument be valid?	这种论点是否有效?
788	Hand up if you've got it.	有了就举手.
789	Right up so I can see you.	起来,让我看到你。
790	Okay, is it valid?	好吧,这是有效的吗?
791	Yes, it is valid.	是的,这是有效的。
792	Those who said yes have got it right.	答应的人说对了
793	Okay, now why is it valid?	好吧,为什么它有效?
794	Would anyone like to give me a crisp and clear account	有人愿意给我一个清晰的描述吗?
795	of why it's valid or should I do it?	为什么它有效还是我应该这样做?
796	Would you like to have a go?	你想试试吗?
797	That's right.	没错
798	This can't possibly be false, can it?	这不可能是虚假的,不是吗?
799	So there's no possible situation	所以没有可能的情况
800	in which the conclusion is false.	其中结论是虚假的。
801	So how could there be a possible situation	那么,怎么会有可能的情况
802	in which the premise is true	假设是真实的
803	and the conclusion false?	而结论是假的吗?
804	See what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
805	Could this argument be valid?	这种论点是否有效?
806	Actually, as a matter of fact,	事实上,事实上
807	this argument must be valid.	这一论点必须有效。
808	Can anyone tell me why it must be valid	谁能告诉我为什么它必须有效?
809	rather than just could be valid?	而不是仅仅可以有效?
810	That can never be false.	这绝不是虚假的。
811	That's necessarily true, isn't it?	这是必然的,不是吗?
812	Given that that's necessarily true,	鉴于这必然是真的,
813	how could there be a possible situation	怎么会有这样的情况
814	in which that's true and that's false	在其中,这是真实的,这是虚假的
815	given that that cannot be false?	鉴于这不可能是虚假的?
816	Cannot be false.	不能是虚假的。
817	It's not just that it is false,	不只是这是假的,
818	it's that it can't be false.	它不能是虚假的。
819	And actually the same is true of the other one	其实另一个也一样
820	if you look at this.	如果你看看这个。
821	Given that that is a contradiction,	鉴于这是一个矛盾,
822	it's necessarily false,	这一定是虚假的,
823	again, there's no possible situation	再说一遍,没有可能的情况
824	in which that's true,	在其中这是真的,
825	so how could it be the case	怎么会这样呢?
826	that that's true and that's false?	这是真的,这是虚假的?
827	It couldn't be.	这不可能。
828	So if we say could this argument be valid	所以,如果我们说这个论点是否成立
829	in each of those cases,	在每一个案件中,
830	the answer is no.	答案是没有。
831	Sorry, yes.	对不起,是的。
832	Not only is it valid,	不仅有效,
833	but it must be valid.	但它必须是有效的。
834	And why is that?	为什么?
835	Because there's no possible situation	因为没有可能的情况
836	in which the premises are true	在其中,房地是真实的
837	and the conclusion false.	和结论虚假。
838	So when you ask me as the answer	所以,当你问我作为答案
839	to those two questions different,	对于这两个不同的问题,
840	they're different questions.	他们是不同的问题。
841	Okay, let me just tell you that the two arguments	好吧,让我告诉你这两个论点
842	I've given you here are called	我给了你一个叫
843	the paradoxes of entailment.	产生矛盾。
844	The paradoxes of entailment.	内涵的悖论。
845	And a paradox	还有一个悖论
846	is something that	是什么东西
847	you cannot understand.	你无法理解
848	It's just something you can't wrap your mind around.	这只是一些你无法包围你的思想。
849	And the reason you'd want to look at these	还有你想看这些的原因
850	and tell me that they're not arguments	告诉我他们不是争论
851	is because	因为
852	they couldn't convince you of anything,	他们不能说服你什么,
853	could they?	是吗?
854	As arguments, they would be pretty lousy	作为辩论,他们会非常糟糕
855	because they wouldn't be convincing.	因为他们不会令人信服
856	But they're still valid	但他们依然有效
857	because they satisfy the definition	因为他们符合定义
858	of validity.	有效性。
859	So in the same way we might say, if you think	所以,同样的方式,我们可以说,如果你认为
860	whales, for example,	例如鲸鱼,
861	aren't fish, are they?	不是鱼吗?
862	Well, they jolly well should be, shouldn't they?	他们应该很开心,不是吗?
863	I mean, it seems to me they jolly well should be.	我觉得他们应该很快乐
864	They go swimming around and they're	他们游来游去
865	fish, aren't they?	鱼,不是吗?
866	But they're not	但他们不是
867	because they don't satisfy the definition of fish.	因为它们不能满足鱼的定义
868	They satisfy the definition of mammal.	它们满足哺乳动物的定义.
869	Well, you might want to say, well, surely we should	好吧,你也许想说, 好吧,我们当然应该
870	fiddle with our definitions so that	我们的定义是这样的
871	whales come out fish	鲸鱼出来
872	because they're fish, obviously.	因为它们是鱼,很明显。
873	But they're not.	但他们不是。
874	Do you see what I mean?	明白我的意思了吗?
875	Sometimes	有时
876	things that are really	真实的东西
877	rather irritating are thrown up	相当刺激的被抛出
878	by definitions that work for every	按对每一实体有效的定义
879	other case.	其他情况。
880	And therefore you think,	所以,你认为,
881	oh, Sonic will just put up with these anomalies.	索尼奇会忍受这些异常的
882	Well, these are the paradoxes	嗯,这些是悖论
883	of entailment because we wish	因为我们希望
884	that our definition of validity didn't	我们的有效性定义没有
885	generate these two arguments	生成这两个参数
886	as valid.	作为有效。
887	But they do.	但他们有
888	And actually,	事实上,
889	think about everything follows from a	想想一切从一个
890	contradiction.	矛盾。
891	That makes sense, doesn't it?	这有道理,不是吗?
892	Because if I say Marianne's wearing a skirt and	因为如果我说玛丽安穿着裙子
893	it's not the case Marianne's wearing a skirt,	这不是玛丽安穿裙子的情况
894	that leaves open every possibility,	留下一切可能性,
895	doesn't it?	对不对?
896	Everything	所有的东西
897	follows from a contradiction	由矛盾产生
898	because a contradiction	因为一个矛盾
899	doesn't rule out any possibility	没有排除任何可能性
900	at all.	一点也不
901	Okay, so	好吧,这样吧
902	those are the paradoxes of entailment.	这些是必然产生的矛盾。
903	Actually, these are a pretty good test	其实,这是个很好的测试
904	of your understanding of validity	你对有效性的理解
905	because when you see that those	因为当你看到那些
906	two arguments, the paradoxes of entailment,	引申的矛盾,
907	must be valid,	必须有效,
908	then you'll have understood	那你就会明白
909	validity.	有效性。
910	So that's	这么说吧
911	quite a good little way of testing	不错的测试方法
912	your own understanding of validity.	你对有效性的理解
913	Yes.	对
914	Yep.	对
915	Absolutely.	当然
916	That's right.	没错
917	It really	痷
918	doesn't matter.	没关系
919	And actually, that's true	其实,这是真的
920	anywhere because	任何地方,因为
921	this is	这是
922	actually a theorem.	其实是一个定理。
923	If you have an argument,	如果你有争论,
924	I've just seen a can of worms	我刚刚看到一罐虫子
925	opening up in front of me as I'm about to	打开在我面前当我即将
926	do this, but let's see if I can do it.	这样做,但让我们看看我能不能做到这一点。
927	Okay, if you have a	好吧,如果你有一个
928	premise here and a premise	这里的前提和前提
929	here,	在这里,
930	sorry, let's	对不起,让我们
931	do it this way.	这样做。
932	I'm going to draw a truth table.	画真言台.
933	I haven't actually	其实我没有
934	introduced you to truth tables, but it doesn't	把你介绍给真人表,但是没有
935	really matter because they're very easy.	真的很重要,因为他们很容易。
936	True, true,	对,对
937	false, false.	虚假的,虚假的。
938	P and	经常预算和
939	Q.	腾讯.
940	Okay, I've	好吧,我已经
941	got each of these	得到了每个这些
942	structures is a different	结构是不同的
943	world.	这个世界
944	Okay?	好吗?
945	This is the world in which Q	这就是Q的世界
946	is true, and	没错,而且
947	P is true.	P是真实的。
948	Okay?	好吗?
949	What's the truth	什么是事实
950	value of P and Q in	P和Q的数值
951	this world?	这个世界?
952	True.	没错
953	Good.	不错
954	Well done.	干得不错
955	Okay, this is the	好吧,这是
956	world in which Q is true and	Q是真实的,
957	P is false.	P是虚假的。
958	What's	何谓
959	the truth value of P and	P和P的真实价值
960	Q in this world?	这个世界上的Q?
961	Brilliant.	聪明
962	Okay.	摆
963	This is	这是
964	the world in which Q is false and P	Q是虚假和P的世界
965	is true.	没错
966	Okay, what's	好吧,这是什么
967	truth value of p and q in this world?	这个世界上p和q的真理价值?
968	And here's the world where p and q are both	这就是P和Q两个世界
969	false.	虚假的。
970	What's the truth value?	何谓真谛值.
971	False again.	又说假话了
972	Okay, so we had true, false, false, false.	好吧,所以我们有真实,虚假,虚假,虚假。
973	Didn't we?	不是吗?
974	Remember that?	记得吗?
975	Okay, now this is the world where q is true and p is	好了,现在这就是世界 q是真实的,p是
976	true.	没错
977	What's the truth value of q in this world?	q在这个世界上的真相价值是什么?
978	True.	没错
979	What about this world?	这个世界怎么办?
980	True.	没错
981	What about this world?	这个世界怎么办?
982	False.	虚假的。
983	That's just q.	这只是q。
984	So in the world where q is	因此,在这个世界,q是
985	false, it's got to be false, hasn't it?	假的,一定是假的,不是吗?
986	Okay, what about p?	好吧,怎么样P?
987	True, false, true, false.	实,虚也.
988	Okay, that's just copying out that bit of the truth table.	好吧,那只是复制出一点点的真相表。
989	Now, here's an argument,	现在,有一个论点,
990	q and p, q, therefore p. Okay, you with me?	q和p, q,因此为p. 好吧,你明白吗?
991	Now, we can use this truth table to	现在,我们可以使用这个真相表
992	test whether this argument's valid.	测试此参数是否有效。
993	Here, the two premises are true and the	在这里,两个前提是真实的,
994	conclusion is true, so that's okay.	结论是真的,所以没关系。
995	That seems to be valid.	这似乎是正确的。
996	Here, one premise is	这里有一个前提
997	true, the other is false, and the conclusion's false, so that seems to be	对,另一个是虚假的,结论是虚假的,所以似乎
998	valid as well.	同样有效。
999	Is that reasonable?	合理吗?
1000	That's not a possible situation in	这不可能
1001	which the premises are both true and the conclusion false.	其前提既真实又虚假。
1002	Yeah?	是吗?
1003	Is this a	这是一
1004	situation in which the premises are both true and the conclusion false?	房地是真实的,结论是虚假的?
1005	No, because	不,因为
1006	the premises are both false and the conclusion true, the other way around.	房子是虚假的,结论是真实的,相反。
1007	And	还有
1008	what about this?	这个怎么样?
1009	The premises are both false and the conclusion false, so that	馆舍既假又假,所以
1010	could also be valid.	也可以有效。
1011	So as you'd expect, that argument is valid.	所以,如你所料,这个论点是正确的。
1012	But notice, if I	但请注意,如果我
1013	put in any other premise here, it's going to stay valid.	放在其他任何前提, 它会保持有效。
1014	Any other premise, what	任何其他前提,什么
1015	would you like me to put in here in order to make the argument invalid?	你希望我放在这里使辩论无效?
1016	Not p.	没有p.
1017	Okay, if I put in not p, okay, this is the world in which p is true, so not p	好吧,如果我放不进P,好吧, 这是世界的p是真实的,所以不是p
1018	will be, no, this is the world in which p is true, so not p will be false.	将,不,这是世界其中p是真实的, 所以p不会是虚假的。
1019	Okay, this is the	好吧,这是
1020	world where p is false, so not p will be true, good.	这个世界的p是虚假的, 所以p不会是真的,很好。
1021	This is the world where p is	这就是P的世界
1022	true, so not p will be, and it's false here, so it'll be true.	真实的,所以P不会是, 它在这里是假的,所以它会是真的。
1023	So let's test for	我们来测试一下
1024	validity again, okay.	再说一次,好吧
1025	Now this one, in this world, the premises are true, true,	现在,这个,在这个世界上, 房地是真的,真的,
1026	and false, and the conclusion is true, okay.	和虚假,结论是真实的,好吧。
1027	Is that all right, or is that a	这是所有的权利,还是一个
1028	counterexample?	反实例?
1029	Is that still valid?	还有效吗?
1030	So it's not the case that all the premises	所以不是所有建筑都这样
1031	are true, okay, the conclusion is true, but that's okay, it's still valid, isn't it?	是真的,好吧,结论是真的, 但没关系,它仍然是有效的,不是吗?
1032	What about false, true, true, as the premises, and the conclusion is false?	假,真,真,真,如所处处,而结论不实,则如何?
1033	Still okay, isn't it?	还好吧?
1034	We haven't yet found one where we've got true, true, true, and	我们还没有找到一个我们得到了真实,真实,真实,和
1035	false as the conclusion, which is what we'd be looking for.	假象是结论, 这就是我们要找的。
1036	Here we've got false,	这里有假的
1037	false, false, true, valid, and here we've got false, false, true, false, valid.	假的,假的,真实的,有效的,我们这里有假的,假的,假的,有效的.
1038	So you	这么说你
1039	see, I could add in even a negation of the conclusion, and it hasn't changed the	你看,我可以加甚至否定的结论, 它没有改变
1040	validity.	有效性。
1041	Once you've got a valid argument, you can add anything you like,	一旦你有一个有效的争论, 你可以添加任何你喜欢的,
1042	and it'll still be valid.	还会有效
1043	I don't know why I went into telling you all that,	我不知道我为什么要告诉你这些
1044	this is information you really didn't need to know, but it's so interesting,	这是你真正不需要知道的信息, 但它是如此有趣,
1045	isn't it?	是吗?
1046	I think it's interesting.	我觉得很有趣
1047	Let's move on.	让我们继续前进。
1048	Okay, so let's test you again.	好吧,让我们再次测试你。
1049	Okay, don't shout out your answer.	好吧,不要大声回答
1050	So is the argument valid if we've got true	如果有事实的话,这个论点也是有效的
1051	premises and a true conclusion?	和真正的结论?
1052	Could it be valid is what I should have asked?	我本该问的是否有效?
1053	Yeah, hand up if you think yes.	是的,如果你认为是的话。
1054	Yeah, okay, you're quite right.	是啊,好吧,你说得对。
1055	False premises,	虚假的房舍,
1056	true conclusion.	真正的结论。
1057	Hand up.	手举起来。
1058	Okay, premises are false, the conclusion's true.	好吧,前提是假的,结论是真的。
1059	Could it still be valid?	还能有效吗?
1060	Yep, good, well done.	是的,不错,做得好。
1061	What about false conclusion, false	那假结论,假结论呢?
1062	premises?	房子吗?
1063	Could it still be valid?	还能有效吗?
1064	Yes, yes.	对,对。
1065	And true premises, false conclusion,	和真实的前提, 虚假的结论,
1066	could it be valid?	能有效吗?
1067	No.	没有
1068	Some of you are getting there, some of you I thought	你们中有些人到了,有些人我想
1069	I've got there have got themselves lost in the meantime.	我在这期间迷路了
1070	Okay, let's, okay, I'm	好吧,让我们,好吧,我
1071	going to look at this another way of looking at it, just because you're	就因为你
1072	already probably exhausted.	可能已经累坏了
1073	I'm already exhausted.	我已经筋疲力尽了
1074	We're going to look at Venn	我们要看看文恩
1075	diagrams and we're actually going to run out of time in this session.	图表和我们实际上将用完时间在这个会议。
1076	Okay, here's	好吧,这里
1077	an example.	一个例子。
1078	Here we have two arguments.	我们有两个论点。
1079	In both cases the premises are actually	在这两种情况下,房地实际上是
1080	true and the conclusion is actually true.	和结论其实是真的。
1081	Okay, but one of them is valid and the	好吧,但其中一个是有效的,
1082	other one isn't valid and I'm going to show you that to you by means of Venn	其他的都无效,我要用文恩的方式告诉你
1083	diagrams if I can find my pen.	如果我能找到我的笔,就用图表
1084	So, all cats meow.	所以,所有的猫都低调。
1085	Okay, here's the class of	好吧,这里的课
1086	meowers, right?	低调,对不对?
1087	All cats are meowers, so where should I draw the class of all	所有猫都是小猫,所以我应该在哪里画所有阶级
1088	cats?	猫?
1089	Inside, outside or overlapping?	里面,外面还是重叠?
1090	Inside.	进去
1091	If all cats meow then all	如果所有的猫都呜咽,那么所有的
1092	cats must be inside the class of things that meow.	猫一定在那种低俗的东西里
1093	Is that right?	是吗?
1094	Okay, Bo,	好吧,鲍
1095	incidentally, I hope you notice my topical reference to the dog of the	顺便说一句,我希望你注意到我的专题提到狗
1096	United States of America, unless he's died since.	美国除非他从此去世了
1097	Okay, Bo does not meow, so	好吧,波不低调,所以
1098	where do I draw the Bo?	我从哪里画波?
1099	Here.	这里。
1100	Okay, Bo is not a cat.	好吧,波不是猫。
1101	Well, is that true?	是吗?
1102	Yeah, okay,	是啊,没关系,
1103	that's true.	没错
1104	So, if all cats meow and Bo does not meow, then Bo is not a cat.	所以,如果所有的猫低头和波不低头, 那么波不是猫。
1105	There's no possibility, is there, in which those are true and that's not true.	有没有可能,在那里,那些是真实的,而不是真实的。
1106	If those are true, that's got to be true.	如果那些是真的,那一定是事实。
1107	Okay, so that's a valid argument.	好吧,所以这是一个有效的论点。
1108	Accepted?	接受吗?
1109	Okay, and yet the truth value of that is true.	好吧,但事实价值是真实的。
1110	Yes, truth value of that is true.	是的,这是事实价值。
1111	I	一、导言
1112	assume the dog doesn't meow and that's true as well.	假设狗不低调这也是事实
1113	Okay, so you accept my	好吧,所以你接受我的话
1114	claim about the truth values and you accept my claim about the validity.	你接受我关于有效性的说法
1115	
1116	let's have a look at this one.	让我们来看看这个。
1117	All cats meow.	所有的猫都低调。
1118	So, here's the meowers.	所以,这里的低调者。
1119	Where do I	我该去哪儿?
1120	draw the thing of cats?	画猫的事?
1121	Okay, cats.	好吧,猫咪。
1122	Okay, second premise, dogs are not cats.	好吧,第二个前提,狗不是猫。
1123	They're	他们是
1124	outside the class of cats, aren't they?	在猫类之外,不是吗?
1125	But they could be either	但他们也可能是
1126	inside or outside or overlapping the class of meowers, couldn't they?	里面或外面或重叠的阶级低调,不是吗?
1127	So, there	所以,这里
1128	is a possible situation in which that's true and that's true, but that isn't true.	有可能是真实的,但事实并非如此
1129	And that's the possible situation in which cats meow.	猫咪可能就这样
1130	Now, we know that cats	现在,我们知道猫
1131	don't actually meow.	别那么低调
1132	Glad you're all with me.	很高兴你们都跟我在一起
1133	But you see, dogs could meow,	但你看,狗会低调,
1134	couldn't they, as far as that?	他们不能这样吗?
1135	I mean, these do not guarantee that, do they, in the way	我的意思是,这些不能保证, 他们的方式
1136	that these guarantee that.	这些保证了这一点。
1137	Is that right?	是吗?
1138	Okay, and yet would you agree with me	好吧,你同意我的话吗?
1139	that that's true?	是真的吗?
1140	Yeah?	是吗?
1141	That's true?	是吗?
1142	Is that true?	是吗?
1143	Oh, come on.	哦,来吧。
1144	Is it true?	真的吗?
1145	Is it	是吗?
1146	actually true?	是真的吗?
1147	Yes, it is.	没错
1148	Dogs do not meow.	狗是不会叫的。
1149	But that's not a necessary truth,	但这不是一个必要的事实,
1150	is it?	是吗?
1151	Dogs could meow.	狗会低头
1152	So, there is a possible situation and this does not rule	所以,有一个可能的情况和这不规则
1153	out that possible situation.	摆脱那种可能的情况。
1154	So, here we have premises where the actual truth	因此,这里我们有房地中的真实真相
1155	values, the premises are all true, the conclusion is true, but here's one of	价值,前提都是真实的,结论是真实的, 但这里有一个
1156	an argument exactly like that that's valid and here's an argument exactly	这样的争吵是有效的这里的争吵就是
1157	like that that's not valid.	这样不行
1158	What's the difference between them?	他们有什么区别?
1159	Answer, in this	回答,在这个
1160	case, if the premises are true, the conclusion couldn't be false.	如果房子是真的,结论不能是虚假的
1161	Okay?	好吗?
1162	Whereas here, if the premises are true, the conclusion could still be false.	而在这里,如果前提是真的,结论可能仍然是虚假的。
1163	Okay?	好吗?
1164	If we didn't know, I'm talking about dogs here, but what if I was talking about,	狦иぃ笵 и弧琌 狦и琌弧
1165	name an animal you wouldn't know anything about.	给动物起个你什么都不知道的名字
1166	Griffins.	格里芬丝
1167	Actually, you've	其实,你已经
1168	all watched your Harry Potter, so that's a bad example too.	所有人都看着你的哈利波特, 所以这也是一个不好的例子。
1169	But, okay, I'm talking	但是,好吧,我在说
1170	about a mythological animal or an animal we've only just discovered.	我们刚刚发现的神话动物或动物
1171	I can tell	我看得出来
1172	you it's, yeah, unicorns are not cats, but unicorns don't meow.	独角兽不是猫但独角兽不是猫
1173	You actually	其实你
1174	wouldn't know the truth value of that, would you?	会不会知道真相的价值,你呢?
1175	And you'd have to recognise	你必须认识到
1176	that the truth of those two leaves that one open.	那两个的真相留下一个打开。
1177	Okay?	好吗?
1178	That's the	就是这样
1179	importance of validity.	有效性的重要性。
1180	Here's the next one.	下个
1181	Okay, I've got two arguments again.	好吧,我还有两个论点
1182	The premises are actually false, I hope, and the conclusion is actually true.	我希望,这些前提实际上是虚假的,结论实际上是真实的。
1183	Okay?	好吗?
1184	Do you accept that that's false?	你接受那是假的吗?
1185	Is that false?	那是假的吗?
1186	Is that true?	是吗?
1187	It is.	没错
1188	Is that false?	那是假的吗?
1189	There are fish without scales.	有鱼没有鳞片。
1190	I looked it up.	我查过了
1191	And Jewish people either can or	犹太人可以或
1192	can't eat them.	不能吃他们。
1193	I can't remember which this is.	我不记得这是哪一个了
1194	But there's a whole table of which	但有一个完整的表格
1195	fish have scales and which don't.	鱼有鳞片,没有鳞片
1196	Okay?	好吗?
1197	Whales have scales, is that false?	鲸鱼有鳞片,是不是假的?
1198	Good.	不错
1199	Whales are not fish.	鲸鱼不是鱼
1200	True or false?	是真的还是假的?
1201	True.	没错
1202	Okay, good.	好吧,不错。
1203	So you agree with me that the	所以你同意我的观点
1204	truth values, the actual truth values are like that.	真理价值,实际真理价值是这样的.
1205	Yes?	是吗?
1206	Okay, as I described.	好吧,正如我所描述的。
1207	Now	现在
1208	let's look at the validity of these arguments.	让我们看看这些论点的有效性。
1209	All fish have lungs.	一切鱼有肺.
1210	This is	这是
1211	the class of lunged things.	肺部的东西。
1212	Where do I draw the class of fish?	我该从哪里画鱼类?
1213	Inside.	进去
1214	Here's fish.	鱼来了
1215	If whales have lungs, where have I got to draw the...	如果鲸鱼有肺,我在哪里画...
1216	Hang on.	坚持住。
1217	All fish have	所有鱼都有
1218	lungs.	肺经.
1219	Whales are fish.	鲸鱼是鱼.
1220	It's got to be there, hasn't it?	它必须在那里,不是吗?
1221	Okay, so it's got	好吧,所以它会
1222	{\fn华文楷体\fs16\1cHE0E0E0}在那里
1223	And if it's there, what's got to be the case?	且若有之,则必有之乎?
1224	It's got to have lungs,	它必须有肺
1225	hasn't it?	是吗?
1226	So if those two are true, that's got to be true.	所以,如果这两个是真的,那一定是事实。
1227	Accept that?	接受吗?
1228	Now	现在
1229	let's have a look at the final one.	让我们来看看最后一个。
1230	Sorry, not the final one.	对不起,不是最后一个。
1231	All fish have scales.	所有的鱼都有鳞片。
1232	This is the class of scaled things.	这是类缩放的东西。
1233	Class of fish?	鱼类?
1234	In there?	里面吗?
1235	Okay.	摆
1236	Fish.	鱼
1237	Whales have	鲸鱼有
1238	scales.	缩放。
1239	So where do I draw whales?	那么,我在哪里画鲸鱼?
1240	须 be内.
1241	Has it got to be	它必须是
1242	here or here?	这里还是这里?
1243	It could be in either, couldn't it?	也可能在里面,不是吗?
1244	And whales are not fish.	鲸鱼不是鱼
1245	
1246	that tells us that it is there, but it could be either, couldn't it?	这告诉我们它存在, 但也可能存在,不是吗?
1247	Again,	再说一遍
1248	the truth of these two, if they were true, doesn't guarantee the truth of	这两人的真相,如果是真的, 并不能保证真相
1249	that, because you can have scales without being a fish.	那样,因为你可以有鳞片而不是鱼。
1250	Okay, so again, if you look	好吧,那么再次,如果你看着
1251	at the explanation underneath, in both cases the premises are actually false	在下面的解释中,在这两种情况下,房地实际上都是虚假的。
1252	and the conclusion is actually true, but in the first case, if the premises were	而结论实际上是真实的,但在第一种情况下,如果房地是
1253	true, the truth of the conclusion, I should have said there, can you see?	是的,我应该说,你能看到吗?
1254	Scrab it out on your copy.	抄本上写出来
1255	That should be conclusion.	这应该是结论。
1256	The truth of the	事实真相
1257	conclusion would be guaranteed.	将保证结论。
1258	In the second case, even if the premises were	在第二种情况下,即使房地
1259	true, the conclusion could still be false.	是的,结论仍然可能是错误的。
1260	Okay, it isn't false, but it could be.	好吧,这不是假的,但它可能是。
1261	Are	对
1262	you beginning to follow?	你开始跟随?
1263	And here, I'll actually, I'll skip over these, because	在这里,我其实,我会跳过这些,因为
1264	would you like me to do these with you as I've done the others?	你想让我和你们一起做这些吗?
1265	You would?	你会吗?
1266	
1267	your gluttonous for punishment, aren't you?	你对惩罚的贪婪,不是吗?
1268	Okay, firstly, do you agree with me	好吧,首先,你同意我的观点吗?
1269	that the truth values are as I say?	真理的价值就像我说的?
1270	Okay, I've said everything's false.	好吧,我说过一切都是假的
1271	Is that	这是
1272	false?	虚假?
1273	All fish have wings.	所有鱼都有翅膀
1274	Yep, whales are fish.	是的,鲸鱼是鱼。
1275	Is that false?	那是假的吗?
1276	Whales have wings.	鲸鱼有翅膀
1277	False?	虚假?
1278	False.	虚假的。
1279	Okay, all fish have scales.	好吧,所有的鱼都有鳞片。
1280	False.	虚假的。
1281	Whales have scales.	鲸鱼有鳞片。
1282	False.	虚假的。
1283	Whales	鲸鱼
1284	are fish.	是鱼。
1285	Okay, so all the premises and the conclusions are false here, but this	好吧,所以所有的前提和结论在这里是假的,但这个
1286	argument is valid and this argument is invalid.	参数是有效的,该参数无效。
1287	Okay, why do I say that?	好吧,我为什么要这么说?
1288	Well, if	好吧,如果
1289	I find my pen again, all fish have wings.	我又找到了我的笔所有的鱼都有翅膀
1290	Here's the class of winged things.	这是机翼类的东西。
1291	The	那个
1292	class of fish is inside.	鱼类是在里面。
1293	Whales have wings.	鲸鱼有翅膀
1294	Oh, sorry, yes, thank you.	哦,对不起,是的,谢谢你。
1295	I'm suddenly	我突然间
1296	thinking, oh my god, it's not valid.	想想,哦,我的上帝, 这是无效的。
1297	All fish have wings.	所有鱼都有翅膀
1298	Whales are fish.	鲸鱼是鱼.
1299	
1300	therefore, they've got to have wings, haven't they?	因此,他们必须有翅膀,不是吗?
1301	That guarantees it.	这保证它。
1302	They've	他们已经
1303	got to be inside the class of winged things.	一定在机翼类里
1304	What have we got over here?	这里有什么?
1305	We've	我们已经
1306	got all fish have scales, so there's the scales things and there's the	所有鱼都有鳞片,所以有鳞片的东西,有
1307	fish.	鱼
1308	Whales have scales.	鲸鱼有鳞片。
1309	Well, they could be either or, couldn't they?	那么,他们可能是或者,不是吗?
1310	Whales are	鲸鱼是
1311	not fish.	不是鱼
1312	Well, okay, that tells us that whales are here, but is that guaranteed	好吧,好吧,这告诉我们鲸鱼在这里, 但这是保证
1313	other than the fact that we're saying that that's true?	除了我们说的是真的?
1314	You know, actually, it	你知道,其实,它
1315	could be false, couldn't it?	可能是假的,不是吗?
1316	Even though it is true, it could be false and it's	虽然是真的,但有可能是虚假的
1317	not guaranteed by those, is it?	他们不能保证,是吗?
1318	Because as far as the fact that all fish are not	因为事实上所有的鱼都不是
1319	guaranteed by those, is it? Because as far as the fact that all fish are not	他们保证,是吗? 因为事实上所有的鱼都不是
1320	are in the class of things that have scales,	是属于有秤量的事物的,
1321	that doesn't tell us whether whales are out here,	这并不能告诉我们鲸鱼是否在这里
1322	so they have scales but are not fish,	他们有鳞片,但不是鱼。
1323	or whether they're in here and they're fish with scales.	或者他们是否在这里而且他们是鱼与鳞片。
1324	We don't know that.	我们不知道
1325	No.	没有
1326	It happens that all the arguments I'm using	碰巧我用的所有论点
1327	are straightforward cases of modus polens.	这些都是简单易行的例子。
1328	所有P's是Q,P,因此Q.
1329	No, hang on.	不,坚持住。
1330	No, sorry, I've gotten past the stage where I'm thinking.	不,对不起,我已经过了舞台我在想什么。
1331	Your homework this week is to go home and work out	你这个礼拜的功课是回家打工
1332	what the form of that argument is,	这种争论的形式是什么?
1333	because I'm using the same one for each one.	因为我每个都用同一个
1334	What I'm trying to point out is that what matters	我想说的是...
1335	is the possibility, not the actuality.	是可能性,而不是现实。
1336	It's the possible truth values,	这是可能的真理价值,
1337	not the actual truth values that matter.	而不是真实的价值这很重要。
1338	Possible truth values, not the actual truth values.	可能的真理价值,而不是实际的真理价值.
1339	Okay, here's another way.	好吧,这是另一种方式。
1340	We've used Venn diagrams to have a look,	我们用Venn图表来查看
1341	but let's have another look.	但让我们再看看
1342	Another way of determining validity	确定有效性的另一种方式
1343	is to create a counter example set	创建反例集
1344	and then determine consistency.	然后确定一致性。
1345	Let's have a look at what we mean by that.	让我们来看看我们的意思。
1346	Firstly, to determine the counter example set,	首先为了确定反例
1347	we set out the argument logic book style, okay?	我们设定了论证逻辑书的风格,好吗?
1348	Here are two arguments set out logic book style.	这里有两个论点规定了逻辑书的风格.
1349	You're familiar with these, you've seen them before, okay?	你熟悉这些,你以前见过,好吗?
1350	Now, that's the argument set out logic book style.	这就是逻辑书的风格
1351	Now I'm going to negate the conclusion	现在我要否定这个结论
1352	and thereby set out the counter example set.	从而列出反例。
1353	So we negate the conclusion by tacking	所以我们否定这个结论
1354	it is not the case that in front of the conclusion.	结论之前的情况并非如此。
1355	So here we are.	我们到了
1356	This is the counter example set	这是反例集
1357	of the two arguments I gave you.	我给了你两个理由
1358	And all I've given you is exactly the same arguments,	我给你的只是同样的论点
1359	but with the words it is not the case that,	但用这些话来说,情况并非如此,
1360	tacked in front of them.	在他们面前夹击。
1361	The next thing we do is we need to consider	接下来我们要考虑
1362	whether the set consisting of the premises	是否由办公用房组成
1363	and the negation of the conclusion,	并否认这一结论,
1364	in other words, the counter example set,	换句话说,反例集,
1365	is consistent, i.e.	一致的,即:
1366	could they all be true together?	他们在一起是不是都是真的?
1367	If the counter example set is consistent,	如果反例集一致,
1368	then the original argument is invalid.	然后原始参数无效。
1369	Can anyone see why that's the case?	有人知道为什么吗?
1370	Oh, this is really tough.	哦,这真的很难。
1371	Why am I doing this to you?	我为什么要这样对你?
1372	If the counter example set isn't consistent,	如果反例集不一致
1373	then the original argument isn't valid.	那么最初的论点是无效的。
1374	Now again, let me warn you	再说一遍,我警告你
1375	that consistency is a bit like truth.	这种一致性有点像事实。
1376	You think of it as a nice, good, warm thing.	你认为这是一件很好,很好,温暖的事情。
1377	And so you tend to think that if it's valid,	所以,你倾向于认为如果它是有效的,
1378	it must be consistent.	必须一致
1379	But what I'm suggesting here	但我在这里的建议
1380	is if the counter example set is consistent,	如果反例集一致,
1381	in other words, if the counter example set	换句话说,如果反例设置
1382	can't all be true together,	不能都是真的在一起,
1383	then the argument is invalid.	参数无效。
1384	Let's have a look why.	让我们来看看为什么。
1385	Okay, this is the counter example set, okay?	好吧,这是反例集,好吗?
1386	Consisting of the premises	由房地组成
1387	plus the negation of the conclusion.	加上否定结论。
1388	Do you accept that?	你接受吗?
1389	Are you with me on that?	你同意吗?
1390	Now, what I'm claiming is if this is consistent,	现在,我要说的是如果这是一致的,
1391	then the original argument must have been valid, okay?	那么,最初的论点必须是有效的,好吗?
1392	Let's have a look at here with,	让我们来看看这里,
1393	you'll agree with me that the original argument here	你同意我的观点,这里最初的争论
1394	is invalid, isn't it?	无效,不是吗?
1395	Do you agree with that?	你同意吗?
1396	Okay, so if it's snowing, the mail will be late.	好吧,所以如果下雪,邮件会迟到。
1397	The mail will be late, therefore it's snowing.	信会迟到,所以下雪了
1398	That's invalid, isn't it?	这是无效的,不是吗?
1399	Because there is a possible situation	因为有种可能
1400	where the premises are true and the conclusion false.	在那里,房地是真实的,结论是虚假的。
1401	Well, what we're doing here is we're saying,	嗯,我们在这里做的是,我们是在说,
1402	well, let's assume that the conclusion is false	假设结论是假的
1403	and let's see if these can all be true together.	让我们看看这些是否都是真的
1404	Well, if they can, then it can't be the case	好吧,如果他们可以, 那么不可能是这样
1405	that the original argument was valid, could it?	原论点是有效的,不是吗?
1406	Bleh.	布莱
1407	I think this is an argument too far, frankly.	坦率地说,我认为这是一场争论。
1408	So if you're not with me, don't,	所以,如果你没有和我一起,不要,
1409	but actually what you can do is you can,	但实际上,你可以做的是,
1410	because this bit is dead simple, actually,	因为这一点是死简单,实际上,
1411	and if you go away yourself and you work out,	如果你离开自己,你的工作,
1412	there's several ways in which you can test	有几种方法可以测试
1413	your understanding of what I've said today.	你理解我今天说的话
1414	The first one is if you understand	第一个是如果你明白
1415	why the paradoxes of entailment,	为什么产生悖论,
1416	the two arguments I gave you	我给了你两个理由
1417	and told you were the paradoxes of entailment,	并告诉你,那是悖论,
1418	if you can work out why they are valid,	如果你能找出为什么它们有效
1419	you will have understood validity.	你将明白它的有效性。
1420	Second thing is if you understand why this is the case,	第二件事是如果你明白为什么这样
1421	why you can test the validity of an argument	为什么您可以测试一个参数的有效性
1422	by appeal to a counterexample set	上诉的反例
1423	and you can understand why this is the case,	你能理解为什么这样
1424	in other words, if the counterexample set is consistent,	换句话说,如果反例集一致,
1425	then the original argument is invalid	然后原始参数无效
1426	and if the counterexample set isn't consistent,	如果反例集不一致
1427	ah, oh, oh, oh.	摆瓳瓳
1428	Sorry, you can still see it over my hands, can't you?	对不起,你仍然可以看到它在我的手上,不是吗?
1429	That's terrible.	这太可怕了
1430	Right, okay.	对,好的。
1431	You will all see that I've put a knot in	你们都会明白,我已经打结了
1432	where I shouldn't have put a knot,	我不应该打结的地方
1433	which is the worst thing you can do	这是你所能做的最糟糕的事
1434	when you're teaching people logic.	当你在教人逻辑时
1435	So will you please all note	请大家注意
1436	that that knot shouldn't be there?	那个结不应该在那里?
1437	And so the second test	所以第二个测试
1438	of whether you've understood today's work	关于你是否理解今天的工作
1439	is whether you can see how this works, okay?	看你能不能看清情况好吗?
1440	So if you haven't understood where you are now	所以如果你还不明白你现在在哪
1441	and if you're feeling,	如果你觉得,
1442	I'm never gonna understand another thing again,	我再也不会明白其他的事情了
1443	I don't ever want to see that Talbot woman ever again.	我不想再见到塔尔博特的女人了
1444	Quite understand, but go home and have a look at it yourself	完全明白,但回家自己看一看
1445	and I promise you, if you work through it step by step	我向你保证,如果你一步一步地工作
1446	and just think of the definitions, you will understand.	想想定义你会明白的
1447	And if you don't, email me and we'll go through it	如果你不去,就给我发邮件,我们再讨论
1448	all again by email.	再次通过电子邮件。
1449	Okay, I'll stop there,	好吧,我会停下来,
1450	but there's five minutes for questions	但有五分钟的提问时间
1451	if anyone has still got some energy.	如果还有人有活力的话
1452	If anyone has still got some energy.	如果还有人有活力的话

该视频共有字幕 1456 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

P7 · 【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p07 6. 6.论证评估.二. (P7)

【牛津大学】6讲 # 逻辑推理入门公开课 # 超级优秀的教授及课程！ p07 6. 6.论证评估.二. (P7)

发布于 2026-09-09 · 时长 57:03

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:00	Okay, here we are at week six, the very last week of our course, and this week we're going to have a bit of a romp.	好了,我们到了第6周, 也就是我们最后一周的航程, 而这个星期我们将有一个有点隆隆。
0:06	We're going to start looking at fallacies.	始观虚妄.
0:08	Fallacies are bad arguments that look like good arguments and can easily be confused for them.	谬论是劣质的争论,看起来像是好争论,对他们来说很容易被混淆.
0:14	Okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
0:16	Just a recap on last week as always.	只是回顾一下上周的情况
0:19	If you remember, we looked at what makes a deductive argument sound,	如果你还记得,我们研究了是什么使得一个推理性争论的声音,
0:24	and we looked at what makes such an argument valid.	我们研究了为什么这样的论点是有效的。
0:28	So, just a quick reminder for you.	所以,只是一个快速提醒你。
0:31	Would the argument be sound in this situation,	如果这种情况下这个论点是否合理,
0:35	where it's valid but it has false premises?	有效但有虚假的前提吗?

展开字幕全文（897 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Okay, here we are at week six, the very last week of our course, and this week we're going to have a bit of a romp.	好了,我们到了第6周, 也就是我们最后一周的航程, 而这个星期我们将有一个有点隆隆。
2	We're going to start looking at fallacies.	始观虚妄.
3	Fallacies are bad arguments that look like good arguments and can easily be confused for them.	谬论是劣质的争论,看起来像是好争论,对他们来说很容易被混淆.
4	Okay, let's get started.	好了,我们开始吧
5	Just a recap on last week as always.	只是回顾一下上周的情况
6	If you remember, we looked at what makes a deductive argument sound,	如果你还记得,我们研究了是什么使得一个推理性争论的声音,
7	and we looked at what makes such an argument valid.	我们研究了为什么这样的论点是有效的。
8	So, just a quick reminder for you.	所以,只是一个快速提醒你。
9	Would the argument be sound in this situation,	如果这种情况下这个论点是否合理,
10	where it's valid but it has false premises?	有效但有虚假的前提吗?
11	Put your hand up if you think that's sound.	如果你觉得有声音就把手举起来
12	So it's a valid argument but false premises.	所以,这是一个有效的论据但虚假的前提。
13	Okay, what about if it's an invalid argument with false premises?	好吧,如果这是一个无效的争论与假前提?
14	Nope.	没有
15	Okay, what if it's an invalid argument with true premises,	好吧,如果这是无效的争论与真正的前提,
16	and a valid argument with true premises?	和有真凭实据的争论吗?
17	Okay, good, well done.	好吧,不错,做得好。
18	It's only sound if it's a valid argument and it has true premises.	只有有效论证且有真实前提,才有声音.
19	All its premises must be true and it's valid.	其一切处所皆须真实及具足.
20	Well done.	干得不错
21	Okay, now here's the tricky one.	好吧,现在这个棘手的。
22	The question is, could the argument be valid	问题是,这个论点是否有效
23	when it's got false premises and a false conclusion?	当它有虚假的前提和错误的结论?
24	It could be valid.	这可能是有效的。
25	Well done.	干得不错
26	Could it be invalid?	会不会无效?
27	Well done.	干得不错
28	Good.	不错
29	Okay, what if it has false premises and a true conclusion?	好吧,如果它有虚假的前提和一个真实的结论?
30	Could it be valid?	会不会有效?
31	Put your hand up this time.	这次把手举起来
32	Could it be valid if it has false premises and a true conclusion?	如果它有虚假的前提和真实的结论,它是否有效?
33	Could it be valid?	会不会有效?
34	Okay, those of you without your hands up,	好吧,那些没有你的手,
35	is that because you don't know?	因为你不知道吗?
36	Right, okay.	对,好的。
37	What about if it's got true premises and a true conclusion?	如果它有真实的前提和真实的结论呢?
38	Could it be valid then?	那它能有效吗?
39	Okay.	摆
40	Could it be invalid then?	那会不会无效?
41	Oh, yes, it could.	哦,是的,这可以。
42	Okay, there's only one situation in which it couldn't be valid.	好吧,只有一个情况它不能有效。
43	Only one situation in which it couldn't be valid,	只有一个情况不能有效
44	and that's this one.	这是这个。
45	If it's got true premises and a false conclusion,	如果有真实的前提和错误的结论
46	it couldn't be valid.	这不可能有效
47	Otherwise, it could be.	否则,它可能是。
48	It could be either valid or invalid.	它可以是有效的,也可以是无效的。
49	And the reason for that is because an argument is valid	原因就在于一个论点是有效的
50	if and only if there's no possible situation	只有在没有可能的情况下
51	in which all the premises are true and its conclusion false.	其中所有的前提都是真实的,它的结论是假的。
52	So it's a sufficient condition for an argument being valid,	因此,这是一个充分的条件一个辩论是有效的,
53	that there's no possible situation	没有可能的情况
54	in which its premises are true and conclusion false,	其前提确是真实的,其结论确是谬误的;
55	and that's a necessary condition too.	这也是个必要条件
56	And if you remember, I said to you last week,	如果你还记得,我上周对你说,
57	there are two things you've got to remember.	有两件事你得记住
58	One is that it's the possibility,	其一,这是可能性,
59	not the actuality of the combination of true premises	并非真实房地组合的实际情况
60	and false conclusion that's important.	和错误的结论这很重要。
61	And the other is it's the combination of true premises	另一个是真实的建筑组合
62	and false conclusion that's important.	和错误的结论这很重要。
63	Okay, I gave you another test.	好吧,我给了你另一个测试。
64	So that was one test of validity,	所以这是对有效性的检验
65	and the other test I gave you is that an argument is valid	而我给你的另一个测试是,一个争论是有效的
66	if and only if its counterexample set is consistent.	如果而且只有在其反例集一致的情况下。
67	And the counterexample set is the set	反比喻就是这个
68	consisting of the premises plus the negation of the conclusion.	包括房舍和否定结论。
69	So if it's Friday, Marianne's wearing jeans,	如果星期五,玛丽安穿着牛仔裤
70	it is Friday, therefore Marianne's wearing jeans.	今天是星期五,所以玛丽安穿着牛仔裤
71	That's an argument.	即是辩才.
72	If you take the conclusion Marianne's wearing jeans	如果你的结论是玛丽安穿着牛仔裤
73	and negate it, so you've got it's not the case	并否定它,所以你没有它的情况
74	that Marianne's wearing jeans,	玛丽安穿着牛仔裤
75	the counterexample set then becomes,	反比喻就变成了
76	if it's Friday, Marianne's wearing jeans,	如果星期五,玛丽安穿牛仔裤,
77	if Marianne is wearing jeans, it's not the case.	如果Marianne穿着牛仔裤情况并非如此
78	I've forgotten what the premise and conclusion was.	我忘了什么是前提和结论。
79	It is Friday, it's not the case that Marianne's wearing jeans.	今天是星期五,玛丽安穿牛仔裤的情况并非如此。
80	That's the counterexample set.	这是反例集。
81	Now listen again, is that consistent?	现在再听一遍,这是一致的吗?
82	Could all these sentences be true together?	所有这些句子在一起会是真的吗?
83	If it's Friday, Marianne's wearing jeans,	如果星期五,玛丽安穿着牛仔裤,
84	it is Friday, it's not the case that Marianne's wearing jeans.	今天是星期五玛丽安穿牛仔裤的情况并非如此
85	Could those be true together?	这些都是真的吗?
86	They couldn't, could they?	他们不能,是吗?
87	And that shows that the original argument is valid.	这表明最初的论点是有效的。
88	It shows there is no possible situation	它显示没有可能的情况
89	where the premises are true and the conclusion is false	如果场地是真实的,结论是虚假的
90	because the set consisting of the premises	因为那套房子由楼层组成
91	and the negation of the conclusion is inconsistent.	对结论的否定是不一致的。
92	In other words, there's no possible situation	换句话说,没有可能的情况
93	where they're all true together.	在那里他们都是真的在一起。
94	That's why that test works.	所以测试才有效
95	So, okay, and I said to you there are two tests.	所以,好吧,我告诉你有两项测试。
96	You will have understood the concept of validity	你会明白这个概念的
97	once you've understood firstly the paradoxes of entailment	一旦你首先理解了其中的矛盾
98	and secondly why this works.	其次,为什么这样做。
99	If you understand why this works, you're getting there.	如果你明白为什么这样会管用,你就会成功
100	If you understand why the paradoxes of entailment	如果你明白为什么引领的悖论
101	are valid arguments, you will see why	是有效的参数,你会明白为什么
102	you'll have understood the concept of validity.	你会理解有效性的概念。
103	Okay, I can see there are still people worrying	好吧,我可以看到还有人担心
104	about the concept of validity.	关于有效性的概念。
105	If there's time for questions, we'll have a look	如果有时间提问,我们来看看
106	at the questions that you might have then.	在你可能遇到的问题。
107	But we must go on today, I'm afraid,	恐怕我们今天得继续
108	so we'll move straight on.	我们继续前进
109	This week, we're going to be looking at common fallacies.	本周,我们将研究常见的谬论.
110	And a fallacy is an argument that looks like a good argument	谬论是一种看起来不错的争论
111	and can easily be mistaken for a good argument,	并且容易被误认为是善辩,
112	but that isn't a good argument.	但这可不是个好理由
113	And you won't believe how many fallacies there are,	你不会相信有多少谬误,
114	fallacies that you can just identify	你只能确认的谬误
115	and explain why they're fallacies,	并解释为什么他们是谬误,
116	why they look as if they're good arguments and they're not.	为什么他们看起来像是好争论,而不是。
117	But I've listed a whole load of fallacies.	但我列出了很多谬误
118	Actually, I've taken them from a website	其实,我从一个网站拿来的
119	that I've mentioned on the top.	我在上面提到过
120	And I think there are four pages or something of fallacies,	我认为有四页的谬误
121	all in, I apologize for the smallness of the print,	都在里面,我为印刷品的少而道歉,
122	but they wouldn't have let me photocopy it	但他们不会让我复印的
123	if I'd put it any larger.	如果我放大一点的话
124	And I'd just like to point out at the top,	我想在顶部指出
125	the one fallacy is, now I haven't got my glasses on,	一个谬论是, 现在我还没有戴眼镜,
126	it says something like,	上面写着...
127	please note that the argument from fast talking on page eight,	请注意第8页的快速谈话中的论点,
128	that tells you that if somebody talks fast,	它告诉你,如果有人说话快,
129	you haven't got a chance to work out for yourself	你没有机会为自己工作
130	校对:Soup
131	And I'd just like to point out that I've gone through these ideas	我只想指出,我经历了这些想法
132	in these lectures so quickly in some cases	在某些情况下,这些讲座如此之快
133	that there's no way you'll have had time to stop	你不可能有时间停下来的
134	and think about them as I've been talking.	想想我一直在谈论的
135	And so you could say that the whole of these series of lectures	所以你可以说,这些系列讲座
136	has been a giant fallacy of fast talking.	已经是一个巨大的谬误快速交谈。
137	I promise you it's not.	我保证不是
138	And that if you go back and consider what I've said,	如果你回去考虑一下我说的话
139	and of course, they'll all be on the podcast,	当然,他们都会在播客,
140	so you'll be able to actually go back and listen to what I've said again.	这样你就能回去听我再说一遍
141	You'll be able to listen to all my mistakes	你会听我的错误
142	as well as the things I've said correctly.	以及我说过的正确的话
143	I hope we've identified all my mistakes as we've gone through.	我希望我们已经查明了我的所有错误,因为我们经历了。
144	But that'll give you time to actually think about what I've said	但那样你就能有时间考虑一下我说的话
145	and work it out for yourself	自己想办法
146	because actually nobody can teach anybody else anything.	因为实际上没有人能教别人任何东西。
147	You can learn from what I say.	你可以从我说的话中学习。
148	There's nothing I can do to make you understand the concept of validity.	我没办法让你理解有效性的概念
149	You've got to put that effort in for yourself.	你得为你自己努力
150	One thing I will promise you though,	我答应你一件事
151	if you do put that effort in, you will understand.	如果你真的投入了努力你会明白的
152	And if you still don't, after putting in a lot of effort,	如果你仍然不这样做, 经过很多努力,
153	email me and I'll give you a tutorial all on your own	发邮件给我,我会给你一个辅导全部你自己
154	because it really is easy to understand once you've seen it.	因为一旦你看到它,它真的很容易理解。
155	And it really is just a question of looking at it in a slightly different way	这真的只是一个问题一个看它略有不同的方式
156	and you'll see it.	你会看到它。
157	It's one of those rather irritating things	这是其中之一相当刺激的东西
158	you'll probably remember from maths from school.	你可能记得从数学从学校。
159	Okay, so fallacy of fast talking.	好吧,那么荒谬的快速交谈。
160	But the list of fallacies is down there just for your amusement.	但那些谬论只是为你们着想
161	Okay, here's a fallacy or rather here's a deductively valid argument	好吧,这里有一个谬论或者说这里有一个推论性的论点
162	and here's a fallacy that looks like it.	这里有一个假象看起来像它。
163	Okay, here's an example of modus ponens you've come across before.	好吧,这里的一个例子临时小马你以前遇到过。
164	I think you'll agree.	我想你会同意的
165	Could these be true and this one false?	这些都是假的吗?
166	If these two are true, could this be false?	如果这两个是真的,这会不会是假的?
167	No, absolutely not.	不,绝对没有。
168	So if you negated that conclusion and took away the therefore,	如果你否定这个结论并夺走了它,
169	if you negated that conclusion, the set would be inconsistent, wouldn't it?	如果你否定了这个结论, 套集会不一致,不是吗?
170	And that shows you it's a valid argument.	这说明这是个合理的论点。
171	Would you like us to do that there?	你想我们在那里做吗?
172	We can look at the counter example set.	我们可以看看反例集。
173	If it is snowing, the mail will be late.	如果下雪,邮件会迟到
174	It is snowing.	这是下雪。
175	The mail will be late.	信会迟到的
176	And we're going to tack on it's not the case that, which is just that symbol there.	而我们正要抓住它, 情况并非如此, 那只是那里的象征。
177	Okay, that's what that means.	好吧,这就是这个意思。
178	It is not the case that.	事实并非如此。
179	So we've got the set consisting of if it's snowing, the mail will be late.	所以如果下雪,邮件会迟到
180	It is snowing.	这是下雪。
181	It's not the case the mail will be late.	邮件不会迟到的
182	Do you agree that's inconsistent?	你同意这不一致吗?
183	That there's no possible situation in which all those three sentences can be true together.	说此三句皆能合而为真,此三句皆不可有.
184	Okay.	摆
185	Well, if there's no possible situation in which those three sentences can be true together,	如果这三句话不可能一言以蔽之
186	then the set consisting of the premises plus the sorry,	然后是那一套房屋,里面有悔恨者,
187	there's no possible situation where the premises are true and the conclusion is false, is there?	没有可能的情况房地是真实的,结论是虚假的,是吗?
188	Because that's what the counter example set is.	因为反例集就是这样.
189	The truth, the premises, just as they are, and the negation of the conclusion.	事实,前提,就像它们一样, 和否定的结论。
190	Okay.	摆
191	That's why that test works.	所以测试才有效
192	But look at this one.	但看看这个。
193	If it's snowing, the mail will be late.	如果下雪,邮件会迟到
194	The mail will be late, therefore it's snowing.	信会迟到,所以下雪了
195	Let's create the counter example set of that.	让我们创建一个反例
196	So tell me what to write.	告诉我该写什么
197	Somebody.	有人吗?
198	If it's snowing, the mail will be late.	如果下雪,邮件会迟到
199	What do I write next?	我接下来写什么?
200	The mail will be late.	信会迟到的
201	No, we don't put the therefore in because we're creating the counter example set now.	不,我们不把因此,因为我们正在创建反例现在。
202	We're just making a set of sentences.	我们只是做了一组句子。
203	So I'm putting it is snowing.	所以我说下雪了
204	And then what do I do?	然后怎么办?
205	I put the negation sign in front of that and say it's not the case.	我把否定的标志放在前面并说这不是事实。
206	It's nice.	不错
207	So we've now got the set consisting of the premises just as they are.	所以,我们现在有一套由房子组成,就像它们一样。
208	Plus, we're pretending the conclusion is false.	而且,我们假装结论是假的
209	Okay.	摆
210	We're putting a not the case in front of the conclusion, pretending it's false.	我们不是在结论前立案的,而是假装是假的.
211	Now, is that could these sentences be true together?	现在,这些句子是不是都是真的?
212	Is there a possible situation in which all these sentences are true?	这些判决是否都是真的?
213	Where if it's snowing, the mail will be late.	如果下雪,邮件会迟到
214	The mail is late, but it's not snowing.	信虽迟,却不雪.
215	Yes.	对
216	Okay.	摆
217	Give me a couple.	给我两杯
218	This is a postal strike.	这是邮政罢工
219	Yes.	对
220	Exactly.	没错
221	So, okay.	所以,还好。
222	Give me another one if you can think of one.	再给我一个如果你能想到一个。
223	The mail van's broken down.	邮车坏了
224	Exactly.	没错
225	So there are all sorts of situations in which these two premises are true.	因此,在各种情况下,这两个前提都是真实的。
226	And so is the negation of the conclusion.	对结论的否定也是一样。
227	Therefore, it's obvious.	因此,这是显而易见的。
228	There's more than one possible situation in which the premises are true and the conclusion is false.	馆舍真实,结论虚假的情况不止一种.
229	So making a counterexample set enables you to think about situations where the premises are true and the conclusion is false.	所以做一个反例可以让你思考一下馆舍是真实的,结论是虚假的。
230	And that's why it tells you whether the argument's valid or not.	这就是为什么它告诉你的论点是否有效。
231	So this is a deductively valid argument.	因此,这是一个推理有效的论据。
232	And this is a fallacy.	这是谬误
233	This is the fallacy of affirming the consequence.	这是确认后果的谬误。
234	So if you like, you take the consequence of the conditional instead of the antecedent and you put that as the second premise and then derive the antecedent instead of the consequence.	所以,如果你喜欢的话,你把条件的结果而不是前置的, 你把它作为第二个前提, 然后得出前置的而不是后果。
235	And it doesn't work, as you can see.	然则不效,如所见也.
236	Okay.	摆
237	So that's a formal fallacy.	所以,这是一个正式的谬误。
238	We're going to look at fallacies informally.	我们将非正式地审视谬论.
239	Some of the fallacies that we'll look at are actually formal fallacies.	我们将要研究的一些谬论实际上是形式上的谬论.
240	But I'll talk about them informally because it's just as easy for you to understand.	但我会非正式地谈论他们,因为你同样容易理解.
241	Okay.	摆
242	We're going to have a look at three types of fallacy.	将观三种谬论.
243	We're going to look at fallacies of relevance, fallacies of vacuity and fallacies of clarity.	我们要研究一下相关性的谬误,挥发性的谬误和清晰性的谬误.
244	And even then, we're just skimming the surface.	即便如此,我们只是滑动表面。
245	Okay.	摆
246	So let's look at fallacies of relevance.	因此,让我们来看看相关的谬论。
247	The first one is a non sequitur.	第一种是非定义.
248	And you commit a fallacy of non sequitur when you cite in support of a conclusion something that's true but irrelevant.	当你引用一个真实但无关紧要的结论时你却犯了非定理的错误
249	So you cite in support of a conclusion.	所以你引用一个结论作为佐证。
250	So one of your premises is true.	所以,你的一个前提是真的。
251	So that's fine.	所以,这是罚款。
252	But it's irrelevant to the conclusion.	但与结论无关.
253	Now, you might be a bit worried about this, but let me just give you an example of non sequiturs that will be obviously non sequiturs.	现在,你可能有点担心这个, 但是让我给你们举个例子, 说明一些非下级的,显然不是下级的。
254	Bill lives in a large building.	比尔住在一座大建筑里
255	Therefore, his apartment is large.	因此,他的公寓很大。
256	Is there any situation in which this premise is true and this conclusion false?	是否有任何情况表明这一前提是真实的,这一结论是虚假的?
257	Hundreds of them.	数以百计.
258	I mean, he may live in a large apartment, large building, but his apartment may be no bigger than a broom cupboard.	我的意思是,他可能住在一个大的公寓,大大楼, 但他的公寓可能不比扫帚柜大。
259	So you can see that that isn't a valid argument.	所以,你可以看到,这不是一个有效的争论。
260	And the reason it isn't is because the premise doesn't matter how true the premises.	而之所以不是,是因为前提并不重要房子有多真实。
261	It's completely irrelevant to the conclusion, isn't it?	这与结论完全无关,不是吗?
262	You cannot derive the truth of the conclusion from the truth of that premise.	你不能从这个前提的真相中得出结论的真相。
263	Now, I can imagine that you're thinking, well, what about those paradoxes of entailment then?	现在,我可以想象,你在思考, 那么,那些悖论引领呢?
264	You know, surely that was a case, a paradigmatic case of irrelevance.	你知道,这当然是一个案例, 一个典型的无关紧要的案例。
265	You remember I had grass is green.	你还记得我有草是绿色的。
266	Therefore, two plus two equals four.	因此,二加二等于四.
267	Now, surely that premise is irrelevant to the conclusion.	现在,这个前提肯定与结论无关。
268	But let me ask again, is there any possible situation in which that premise is true and that conclusion is false?	但我要再次问,是否有任何可能的情况,即这一前提是真实的,而这一结论是虚假的?
269	Is there any possible situation?	有没有可能的情况?
270	Let me ask again, in which that premise is true and that conclusion false?	让我再次问一下,在哪些方面,这一前提是正确的,而这一结论是错误的?
271	Why not?	为什么不呢?
272	You're right, there isn't.	你说得对,没有
273	But why isn't there?	但为什么不在那里?
274	We saw here that this premise can be true and that conclusion false, can't we?	我们在这里看到这个前提可以是真实的,结论是虚假的,不是吗?
275	That's not a problem.	这不是问题。
276	That is a non sequiteur commits the fallacy of irrelevance.	这是一个非后继的不相干的错误。
277	But why doesn't this one do that?	但为什么这个不这样做?
278	That's all right, go on.	没关系,继续
279	Well, neither is that one.	这个也不是
280	I mean, that's what's wrong with this one is that the premise and the conclusion are completely irrelevant to each other, aren't they?	我的意思是,这是什么错的这一个是前提和结论完全无关彼此,不是吗?
281	So why isn't that a problem with this one?	那为什么这个不是问题?
282	The conclusion is necessarily true.	结论必然是真实的。
283	That's right.	没错
284	So the reason this is a paradox is that the premise is completely irrelevant to the conclusion, but it satisfies the definition of validity.	因此,这是一个悖论的原因是,前提与结论完全无关,但它满足了有效性的定义.
285	Because there can't be any possible situation in which the premise is true and the conclusion false.	因为不可能有任何假设是真实的,结论是虚假的.
286	If there isn't any possible situation in which the conclusion is false, how can P and Q be true if Q isn't true?	如果没有任何可能的情况,结论是虚假的,如果Q不是真实的,P和Q怎么会是真的?
287	If Q is necessarily false, then how can P and Q be true?	如果Q必然是虚假的,那么P和Q怎么会是真实的?
288	The truth of P just becomes irrelevant, doesn't it?	P的真相变得无关紧要,不是吗?
289	The truth of P is just unnecessary to the whole claim.	P的真相对整个主张来说是不必要的.
290	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
291	I'm seeing light sort of going on here, but it's difficult, isn't it?	我看见光线在变但是很困难不是吗?
292	OK, so this is a non sequiteur, whereas that's not.	好吧,所以这是一个非后续的, 而这不是。
293	That's a case of a paradox of entailment.	这是一种自相矛盾的情况。
294	And the difference between them is that 2 plus 2 equals 4 is a necessary truth.	而两者的区别在于,2+2等于4是必然的真理.
295	It cannot be false.	这不可能是虚假的。
296	So how could the premise be true and the conclusion false?	那么,这个前提怎么会是真实的,结论怎么会是虚假的?
297	But if it can't be the case that the premise is true and the conclusion false, then it satisfies the definition of validity, whereas this doesn't.	但是,如果不可能是假设是真实的,结论是虚假的,那么它就满足了有效性的定义,而这个定义并不正确.
298	OK, here's another non sequiteur.	好吧,这是另一个非后续的。
299	Every year, many people are supported through life by their religious beliefs.	每年,许多人的宗教信仰为生活提供了支持。
300	Therefore, their religious beliefs must be true.	因此,他们的宗教信仰必须是真实的。
301	OK, does that premise give any support at all to that conclusion?	好吧,这个前提是否完全支持这一结论?
302	No, I mean, perhaps your religious beliefs really do help you live a good life, live a life that's satisfying to you.	不,我的意思是,也许你的宗教信仰真的帮助你过上美好生活, 过上令你满意的生活。
303	That doesn't necessarily mean they're true, because false beliefs, if you believe false beliefs are true,	这并不一定意味着它们是真实的, 因为假信仰,如果你相信假信仰是真实的,
304	they're going to give you everything that they would give you if they were true, if you see what I mean.	他们会给你一切他们会给你,如果他们是真的, 如果你明白我的意思。
305	OK, so those are two non sequiteurs.	OK,所以这是两个非后续的。
306	And we can see why a non sequiteur is an invalid argument, that there's easily a possible situation which that's true and that's false.	我们可以看到,为什么一个非后遗症是无效的争论, 很容易有一个可能的情况,这是真实的,那是错误的。
307	Therefore, it's not valid.	因此,这是无效的。
308	Again, the truth of that bears no relation to the truth of that.	同样,这的真相与事实毫无关系。
309	So again, the two arguments are not valid.	因此,这两个论点也是无效的。
310	OK, how do arguments like this work?	好吧,这种争论如何?
311	I mean, one of the things we've got to argue, we're forever falling for fallacies.	我的意思是,我们必须争辩的一件事, 我们永远爱上谬误。
312	I mean, we argue incorrectly.	我的意思是,我们争论的不正确。
313	We either make fallacies, we argue fallaciously ourselves, or we fall for the fallacies that other people offer us.	我们要么做错事,要么我们自己做错事,要么我们相信其他人给我们的错事。
314	Have I talked to you about the principle of charity?	我跟你说过慈善原则吗?
315	The principle of charity tells you that your interlocutor's silliness is less likely than your bad interpretation.	慈善原则告诉你,你的对话者的愚蠢不像你糟糕的解释。
316	OK, what does that mean?	好吧,这是什么意思?
317	OK, what's your name?	好吧,你叫什么名字来着?
318	I was thinking of the lady in front with the nice necklace.	我想着前面那个戴着漂亮项链的女士
319	You've probably got a nice necklace too.	你项链也不错
320	OK, Margaret.	好吧,玛格丽特。
321	Margaret and I are arguing.	玛格丽特和我吵架了
322	Margaret says something that I think is blindingly obviously stupid.	玛格丽特说了一些我认为盲目的蠢话
323	OK, now I've got two possibilities.	好吧,现在我有两种可能性。
324	I can think Margaret's just said something blindingly obviously stupid.	我想玛格丽特刚才说的很明显是愚蠢的话
325	I'm not going to talk to her anymore.	我不会再跟她说话了
326	She's obviously not worth talking to because she said not P, whereas surely P is obvious.	她显然不值得交谈因为她说的不是P, 而肯定P是显而易见的。
327	Now, what the principle of charity tells me to do in that case is to say, well, that's interesting.	现在,慈善原则让我在那样的情况下说,这很有趣。
328	Margaret says not P.	玛格丽特说不是P.
329	I think not P is definitely false.	我认为不是P绝对是假的。
330	Therefore, I must have misunderstood Margaret	因此,我一定是误解了玛格丽特
331	because her silliness is far less likely than my misunderstanding her argument.	因为她的愚蠢比我误解她的论点要小得多
332	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
333	OK.	摆
334	So instead of saying to Margaret, you must be joking.	所以,你不是说玛格丽特, 你一定是在开玩笑。
335	How stupid can you get or anything like that?	你能有多蠢或任何类似的东西?
336	Or just saying to myself, right.	或只是对自己说,正确的。
337	OK.	摆
338	Thanks, Margaret.	谢谢,玛格丽特。
339	Nice to see you, et cetera.	很高兴见到你,等等。
340	I'm walking off.	我要离开
341	I say to Margaret, that's interesting.	我告诉玛格丽特,这很有趣。
342	You think not P.	你不认为P。
343	I think P.	我觉得P。
344	Why do you think not P?	为什么你不认为P?
345	And you give me your reasons and I give you my reasons for thinking of P.	你给我你的理由我给你我考虑P的理由
346	And we have a proper argument.	我们有一个适当的争论。
347	We discover actually that P and not P are not in this case inconsistent.	我们发现P而不是P在本案中并不一致。
348	That we've both got a slight misunderstanding.	我们都有点误会了
349	Let me give you an example.	让我举个例子。
350	I don't know why I use this example, but I always do.	我不知道我为什么用这个例子,但我总是这样做。
351	So I'm going to do it again.	故复发心.
352	Two rats in a cage.	笼中两鼠.
353	They both come from different cages.	它们都来自不同的笼子.
354	And in one of those cages, one of the rats was given an electric shock every time a sound	在其中的笼子里一只老鼠每次发出声音都会受到电击
355	was made.	被制造出来。
356	The same sound resulted in the other rat being given a food pellet.	同样的音响导致另一只老鼠被送给一只食物丸.
357	OK.	摆
358	So the experiments are finished.	所以实验已经结束。
359	They've now been put in the same cage.	它们现在被放在同一个笼子里。
360	And this sound happens.	而此音声常发生.
361	Sound sounds.	声音
362	Now, what's going to happen?	现在,会发生什么?
363	One rat's going to rush shaking into the corner of the cage waiting for an electric shock.	一只老鼠会急忙摇动到笼子的角落,等待电击.
364	And the other rat is going to be rushing up to the food bowl looking for a food pellet.	另一只老鼠要赶到食物碗里找一个食物丸
365	Isn't it?	是吗?
366	OK.	摆
367	And then they look at each other and think, you're mad.	然后他们互相看并思考,你疯了。
368	You know, why have you done that?	你为什么要这么做?
369	If they were talking to each other, this is why I don't understand why I use this example.	如果他们在交谈, 这就是为什么我不明白为什么我用这个例子。
370	If they were able to talk to each other, they would then discover that actually they both	如果他们能互相交谈然后他们就会发现他们俩
371	overgeneralized, didn't they?	过于普遍,不是吗?
372	Because one's experience was that whenever that, this.	因为一个人的经验是,无论何时,都这样。
373	And the other's experience was whenever that, that.	而对方的体验就是那样
374	And they assumed that's all the experience there was in the world.	他们认为这就是世界上所有的经验。
375	And in fact, they've now got two counterexamples to that.	事实上,他们现在有两个反例。
376	One is they're in a cage where the sound goes off and nothing happens.	一是他们被关在笼子里,声音响起,什么都没有发生.
377	And the other is that there are places in the world where something completely different happens.	另一个是,世界上有些地方发生了完全不同的事情。
378	And it's only if they talk about it that they'll discover that.	只有当他们谈论它,他们才会发现。
379	So arguing is the lifeblood of cooperating in the search for truth.	所以争论是合作寻找真相的生命线。
380	If you want to know what the truth is, you cooperate with other rational animals.	如果你想知道真相, 你与其他理性的动物合作。
381	In other words, other people like us.	换句话说,我们这样的人
382	And if you find that there's a contradiction, don't assume that the other person is wrong.	如果你发现有矛盾,不要假设对方错了.
383	Because the only rational thing to assume is that one of you is wrong.	因为唯一合理的假设是你们中的一个错了
384	And even that might be false.	甚至这也可能是虚假的。
385	但肯定是你干的可能是你干的 But it certainly might be you.
386	And it's the principle of charity that you observe when you argue in order not to do the irrational thing	你为了不做不理智的事而争论时遵守慈善原则
387	and to assume that the other person is wrong rather than assume that you've misunderstood them.	假设对方错了而不是你误解了他们
388	So that's what the principle of charity is.	这就是慈善的原则。
389	And what happens in this case, in the case of non-sequiteurs,	而本案中发生的情况, 对于非调查者,
390	is that the principle of charity can get you into the wrong place.	慈善原则可以让你走错地方
391	Because you might not notice the irrelevance.	因为你可能没注意到无关紧要
392	I mean, that can happen.	我的意思是,这是可能的。
393	For example, large apartment, large building, you might think the two larges there is enough to make it relevant	比如说,大公寓,大大楼,你可能认为那里的两个大块块足以使其相关
394	and you'll let the argument go through.	你会让辩论通过。
395	You wouldn't be right to do that, but it maybe is understandable.	你这样做是不对的但也许可以理解
396	But sometimes when people are arguing, you might think,	但有时当人们在争论,你可能会认为,
397	well, hang on, I'm sure that was irrelevant, but it can't have been	好吧,等一下,我敢肯定,这是无关紧要的,但不可能是
398	because Margaret's too rational to allow an irrelevance to go through, a non-sequiteur like that.	因为玛格丽特太理性了不能让一个无关紧要的人通过, 一个非法官这样的。
399	Or you might just want to not admit that you can't see the connection.	或者你可能只是不想承认你看不到联系
400	So the thing to do is to A, be aware that there should be, just in any conversation,	所以,要做的是,A, 要意识到,应该有, 任何谈话,
401	the implication is that there's a connection between premises and conclusion,	意思是房地和结论之间有联系
402	like the sea is its salt, Melbourne's in Australia.	就像大海是它的盐一样墨尔本在澳大利亚
403	When I gave you the context, you could see the connection.	当我给你上下文时,你可以看到联系。
404	So if you can't see the connection, ask for it.	故若不能见其联系,求之.
405	So don't be too generous because it's possible that this person is putting forward a non-sequiteur.	所以不要太慷慨,因为这个人有可能提出一个非调查者.
406	And certainly don't be too proud to ask for the relevance if you can't see it.	当然也不要太骄傲,如果你看不到, 问它的相关性。
407	OK, here's an ad.	好吧,这是广告。
408	So this is the second fallacy of relevance.	所以,这是第二个谬论的相关性。
409	So the second one is attacking the person.	所以第二个是攻击这个人
410	It's the second one we're looking at.	观身第二.
411	There are many more than this.	不止这些
412	You might attack the person making the arguments rather than the argument that's made.	你可能会攻击提出争论的人而不是提出争论的人
413	And this is called an ad hominem fallacy.	这叫做人类的谬论
414	And you may have heard it's Miliband on the Today programme the other day talking.	你可能听说过今天节目里的米利班德那天的谈话
415	Now, who was he talking to?	他跟谁说话?
416	Talking to William Hague.	跟威廉・海格说话
417	And he accused William Hague of an ad hominem fallacy.	而他指责威廉·黑格是一个人性的谬论.
418	He said, you're arguing against the man, not against the argument.	他说,你反对这个人,而不是反对他。
419	You're stopping the man, not the ball or something, he said.	你阻止了那个人,而不是球什么的,他说。
420	It was a very good example.	这是一个很好的例子。
421	OK, here's an ad hominem fallacy.	好吧,这里有一个人类的谬论。
422	Nick Griffin is leader of the BNP.	尼克·格里芬是BNP的领导人.
423	Therefore, his claim that some people worry about immigration is rubbish.	因此,他声称有些人担心移民是垃圾。
424	Now, I actually heard that fallacy loud and clear the other night on Question Time.	现在,我实际上听到这个谬论响亮和清晰的那天晚上在问答时间。
425	I'm sure you did too.	我敢肯定,你也一样。
426	Does the truth of the fact that Nick Griffin is leader of the BNP bear at all on the claim,	Nick Griffin是BNP的领袖的事实真相是否完全证实了
427	the truth of the claim, that some people worry about immigration?	有人担心移民?
428	I mean, could it be the case that Nick Griffin is leader of the BNP and some people worry about immigration?	我是说,尼克·格里芬是国民党的领袖而有些人担心移民?
429	Of course it could, couldn't it?	当然可以,不是吗?
430	Yes.	对
431	OK, here's another one, Von Daniken.	好吧,这是另一个,冯·达尼肯。
432	You may not even remember him.	你可能不记得他了
433	He was the chap who wrote books about people coming from space and building the pyramids and so on.	他曾写过一些关于来自太空的人的书,以及建造金字塔等等.
434	His books about ancient astronauts are worthless because he's a convicted forger and embezzler.	他关于古代宇航员的著作是毫无价值的,因为他是一个被定罪的伪造者和贪污者.
435	Now, he is actually a convicted forger and embezzler.	现在,他实际上是一个被定罪的伪造者和贪污者。
436	Does that mean that his books are worthless?	这是否意味着他的书一文不值?
437	OK, so could this premise be true and this conclusion false?	好吧,那么这个前提是否是真的,这个结论是否是假的?
438	Yes.	对
439	Could this premise be true and the conclusion false?	这个前提是否真实,结论是否虚假?
440	So the arguments are useless, aren't they?	所以这些争论是没用的,不是吗?
441	They're both invalid.	他们都是无效的
442	There are possible situations at which the premise is true, conclusion is false.	在某些情况下,前提是真实的,结论是虚假的。
443	They're not good arguments.	他们不是很好的争论。
444	现在,在考虑ad hominem谬误时,区分ad hominem税和ad hominem谬误是非常重要的.
445	And the difference between the two is this.	而二者之别是此.
446	You can attack somebody's right to say something.	你可以攻击别人的权利说话。
447	So you can cast doubt on why they're saying what they're saying by saying something about who they are.	这样你就可以怀疑他们为什么通过说出自己是谁来表达自己的说法.
448	What you can't do is cast doubt on the truth of what they're saying.	你无法做的是质疑他们所说的真相
449	So here's the difference between the two.	故此二种差别.
450	Here's the ad hominem attack.	这是人类攻击
451	Nick Griffin is a self-professed racist, so you should take care when listening to his claims about immigration.	Nick Griffin是个自发的种族主义者所以你在听他的移民主张时应该小心
452	Now, that just seems sensible, doesn't it?	现在,这看起来很明智,不是吗?
453	That's an ad hominem attack.	那是对人的攻击
454	That's not a fallacy at all.	这根本不是谬论
455	All you're doing is warning somebody that this person has a vested interest in making you believe something.	你所做的只是警告别人这个人有既得利益让你相信什么
456	So you should take his claims with an extra pinch of salt.	所以你应该多拿点盐来取他的要求
457	But it doesn't say anything about the truth of the claim.	却不说说法真言.
458	So here, well, the only thing it says about the truth of the claim is that you should be aware of the truth of the claim,	因此,在这里,嗯,它所说的唯一关于这个说法的真相是,你应该知道这个说法的真相,
459	because this person wants you to believe that.	因为这个人想让你相信这一点。
460	And of course, that's not a good enough reason for believing it.	当然,这不是一个足够的理由相信它。
461	Nick Griffin is leader of the BNP.	尼克·格里芬是BNP的领导人.
462	Therefore, his claim that some people worry about immigration is rubbish.	因此,他声称有些人担心移民是垃圾。
463	That is a fallacy.	那是个谬论。
464	If you attack a person instead of what he says, and your attack on the person is actually irrelevant to the truth of what he says.	如果你攻击一个人而不是他说的你攻击这个人实际上与他所说的真相无关
465	In other words, your attack might be a correct attack.	换句话说,你的攻击可能是正确的攻击。
466	You're not saying something false about this person.	你没有说错什么关于这个人。
467	But the truth of what you're saying has no bearing at all on the truth of what he is saying.	但你所说的话的真相与他所说的话的真相毫无关系
468	That's a fallacy.	那是个谬误
469	What you could be saying is warning somebody.	你可以说的是警告别人
470	So I've forgotten your name again.	我又忘记你的名字了
471	Ashley comes to me and tells me that so-and-so came and told her that the coffee is ready in the common room.	阿什利来找我告诉我,So -so来了并告诉她,咖啡已经准备好了在共同的房间。
472	And I say, yes, but I know why he told you that.	我说,是的,但我知道他为什么告诉你这些
473	That's because he likes everyone else to go to the common room first and then discover it's actually being served upstairs today.	这是因为他喜欢其他人先去公共房间,然后发现今天实际上在楼上服务.
474	And he gets all the chocolate biscuits.	他得到了所有的巧克力饼干。
475	I mean, when I'm doing that, I'm giving her a reason for why he said something.	我的意思是,当我这样做, 我给了她一个理由为什么他说什么。
476	It doesn't actually bear on the truth of what's there.	它实际上并不影响真实存在的东西。
477	But it's a good reason not to be sceptical about whether the coffee is being in the common room.	但对于咖啡是否在共同的房间里,不持怀疑态度是一个很好的理由.
478	You'd want to check with someone else that the coffee was in the common room before you went there, perhaps.	你可能想跟别人查查咖啡在你去那之前是否在公共房间
479	Or you wouldn't come down from Ewart House in order to get coffee from the common room on the basis of what Ashley said.	或者你不会从Ewart House下来根据Ashley的话从公共房间买咖啡
480	Or what this person said.	或此人所说.
481	OK, so that's the difference between ad hominem.	好,这就是人类的区别
482	So I don't know if that's answered your question.	我不知道这是否回答了你的问题
483	I mean, an ad hominem is an attack on the person making an argument, not on the argument he's making.	我的意思是,一个广告人是攻击提出争论的人,而不是他提出的争论。
484	And therefore, even if the attack is justified, it doesn't question the argument itself.	因此,即使攻击是正当的,也不质疑论点本身.
485	So those were fallacies of relevance.	因此,这些是相关的谬误。
486	Now, moving on to fallacies of vacuity.	现在,开始去虚无的谬论。
487	OK, the first one is a circular argument that we'll be looking at.	好吧,第一个是循环辩论,我们会看。
488	And when you argue in a circle, you cite in support of a conclusion that very conclusion.	当你在圆圈里争论时,你引用一个结论来支持这个结论。
489	So your premise or your conclusion is amongst your premises here.	所以,你的前提或你的结论在你的前提在这里。
490	Second fallacy we're looking at here is the fallacy of question begging.	我们在这里看到的第二个谬论是问题乞讨的谬论.
491	And thirdly, a self-sealing argument.	第三,自封论.
492	So let's start with circular arguments, then come back and look at these again.	让我们从循环辩论开始, 然后回来再看这些。
493	A circular argument, the conclusion is one of the premises.	循环争论,结论是前提之一.
494	And the difference between that and a question begging argument is that here the conclusion actually is one of the premises.	这和质询争论的区别在于这里的结论其实就是前提之一。
495	Exactly the same thing.	完全一样
496	And here the conclusion is assumed by one of the premises.	在这里,结论是由其中之一假设的。
497	So you haven't actually got the conclusion amongst the premises.	所以,你还没有真正得到的结论在房地。
498	But you've got amongst the premises a premise that assumes the conclusion.	但你有一个假设结论的前提
499	So here's an example of a circular argument.	所以这里是一个循环争论的例子。
500	All whales are mammals, therefore all whales are mammals.	所有鲸鱼都是哺乳动物,因此所有鲸鱼都是哺乳动物.
501	Now, is that argument valid?	现在,这个论点是否成立?
502	Well done.	干得不错
503	You're absolutely right, it is valid.	你说得对,这是有效的。
504	All circular arguments are valid.	所有循环论证都是有效的.
505	How could there be a possible situation in which that's true and that's false if they're the same thing?	如果两者是同一种情况,怎么会有真假的情况?
506	If that's true, that's got to be true, hasn't it?	如果这是真的,那一定是真的,不是吗?
507	So there's no possible situation in which that's true and that's false.	因此,不存在这样的假象和假象.
508	Therefore, that argument is valid.	因此,这一论点是有效的。
509	So circular arguments are always valid.	所以循环争论总是有效的.
510	And what that tells you is that there's got to be more to a good argument than validity.	这告诉你, 必须有更多的好的论点而不是有效性。
511	And what's more true premises?	还有什么更真实的前提?
512	Because that is actually a true premise as well.	因为这也是一个真正的前提。
513	So that's a sound argument, but it's not very good, is it?	所以,这是一个声音的争论, 但这不是很好,是吗?
514	It wouldn't convince anybody of anything.	它不会说服任何人什么。
515	But do you remember last week I got myself into a bit of a tangle by trying to draw truth tables on here and convince you that once you've got a premise,	但你还记得上周我让自己陷入了困境吗? 试着在这里画出真相表说服你一旦你有一个前提
516	once you've got a conclusion in amongst the premises, it doesn't matter what you add to the argument, it remains valid.	一旦你得到了一个结论在其中的前提, 它不重要你加什么论点,它仍然有效。
517	This is called the monotonic property of entailment.	这被称为引产的单质财产.
518	If I add lots of other premises to that, the circularity will no longer be as obvious as it is now, will it?	如果我再增加很多其他的前提,循环将不再像现在这样明显,不是吗?
519	But actually, you are validity detected.	但实际上,你被检测到了有效性。
520	That's what you are in virtue of being rational animals.	这就是你作为理性动物的美德
521	So somebody stands up in Parliament and gives a circular argument that's long and convoluted and so on.	所以有人站在议会里,提出一个循环争论,这种争论是漫长的,曲折的等等.
522	It's a valid argument.	辩才有效.
523	And you hear that.	你听见了
524	You can tell that it's a valid argument, that there's no possible situation where the premises are true and the conclusion false.	你可以看到,这是正当的论证,不存在前提真实,结论虚假的可能情况.
525	But what you don't see is that it's only valid because it's circular.	但是,你看不到的是,它之所以有效,只是因为它是循环的.
526	Do you see how it happens?	你看到它是如何发生的吗?
527	So nobody would put forward an argument like that.	所以没有人会提出这样的论点。
528	But if they embed that premise in with the, sorry, that conclusion in with the premises,	但是,如果他们把前提嵌入,对不起,这个结论在前提,
529	they've set up a situation in which there's no possible situation where all the premises are true and the conclusion false.	他们已经设置了一种情况,在那种情况下,不可能出现所有房地都是真实的,结论是虚假的.
530	How could there be?	怎么会这样?
531	Because it doesn't matter what other premises are there.	因为那里有什么别的地方不重要
532	If all the premises are true, the conclusion must be true as well because the conclusion is one of the premises.	如果所有前提都是真的,结论也必须是真实的,因为结论是前提之一.
533	So circular arguments are always valid and some circular arguments like this one are sound.	所以循环争论总是有效的,有些循环争论像这样的循环争论是健全的.
534	But that doesn't make them good.	但这并不让他们好。
535	There must be more to a valid argument, sorry, to a good argument than just soundness.	有效的论点,对不起,对一个好的论点,必须不止是合理的论点。
536	In the final analysis, the point of an argument is to persuade someone of something.	归根结底,一个争论的要点是说服某人有所作为.
537	So it's to persuade you if you don't believe P and I think you should believe P, I think P is true and therefore you should believe it.	所以这是要说服你如果你不相信P 我认为你应该相信P 我认为P是真的所以你应该相信
538	I put together an argument in the hope of convincing you that P.	我提出一个论点希望说服你这个P。
539	So what I want from an argument more than anything else is that it should be persuasive.	所以我最想从一个争论中得到的是它应该是有说服力的。
540	But I don't want it to be persuasive because of a fallacy.	但我不想因为一个谬论而让人信服
541	I actually want it to be a good argument as well.	我其实也希望它是一个很好的争论。
542	And therefore I want it to be sound and valid.	因此,我希望它声音和有效性。
543	But if it's sound and valid, not persuasive, it's pretty useless for any practical purpose.	但是,如果音效合理,不具有说服力,那么对于任何实际目的来说都是相当无用的.
544	So you actually, you can't have a productive argument with somebody unless you agree with them.	所以,你实际上, 你不能有一个富有成效的争论与某人,除非你同意他们。
545	Didn't anyone tell me why that might be the case?	没人告诉我为什么会这样吗?
546	Productive disagreement always depends on agreement.	产生分歧总是取决于协议。
547	Which is why if you've really got two sides who absolutely disagree on everything, you may as well forget it.	这就是为什么如果你真的有双方谁绝对不同意的一切, 你可能忘了它。
548	Why should productive disagreement depend on agreement?	产生成效的分歧为何要取决于协议?
549	I can only argue with you if you're prepared to accept my premises.	我只能跟你争论如果你愿意接受我的住所
550	If you reject my premises, then I can't draw anything from those premises that's going to convince you of anything, can I?	如果你拒绝我的建筑, 那我不能从那些建筑中提取任何东西来说服你什么,我可以吗?
551	So I've got to convince you of at least one of my premises before we can even get started.	因此,我必须说服你至少一个我的房子,我们甚至可以开始。
552	Of course, what I might do is say, will you agree to take this for the sake of argument and then take you through the arguments?	当然,我可以说,你是否同意为了辩论而接受这一点,然后带你通过辩论?
553	But of course, if you still don't accept the premise, really, you're never actually going to accept the conclusion of my argument, are you?	当然,如果你仍然不接受这个前提, 真的,你永远不会接受我的论点的结论,是吗?
554	So in order to disagree productively, you've got to agree on something.	所以为了产生效果的分歧,你必须就一些事情达成一致.
555	You've got to agree on the premises.	你必须同意的房地。
556	OK, so that's a circular argument and it's a valid one, but it's no good.	好吧,所以这是一个循环的争论,它是一个有效的争论,但这是不好的。
557	And it's no good because there's no possible situation in which the premise is true and the conclusion false.	而因为没有假设是真实的,结论是虚假的可能情况,所以没有好处.
558	But that's because the conclusion is amongst the premises.	但这是因为结论是前提之一。
559	OK, let's look at begging the question.	好吧,让我们看看乞求的问题。
560	Here's an argument.	下面是争论.
561	It's always wrong to murder human beings.	杀人总是错的.
562	Capital punishment involves murdering human beings.	死刑涉及谋杀人类。
563	Therefore, capital punishment is wrong.	因此,死刑是错误的。
564	What's question begging about this argument?	有什么问题要问这个争论吗?
565	Exactly.	没错
566	To talk about capital punishment as if it were murder, just to assume that capital punishment is murder,	说起死刑就像谋杀, 只是假设死刑是谋杀,
567	is to assume your conclusion, isn't it?	假设你的结论,不是吗?
568	Most people would say that actually capital punishment isn't murder because murder is illegal killing,	大多数人会说死刑其实不是谋杀因为谋杀是非法杀戮
569	whereas capital punishment is legal killing, isn't it?	而死刑是合法杀戮,不是吗?
570	Judicial killing.	司法杀戮。
571	So by talking as if capital punishment and murdering human beings are interchangeable here,	所以,通过交谈仿佛死刑和谋杀人在这里可以互换,
572	you're actually begging the question, aren't you?	你真的在求问,不是吗?
573	You're begging the question, well, hang on a second.	你在求问,好吧,等一下
574	Why should I believe capital punishment is wrong on the basis of these two premises?	我为什么要相信根据这两个前提,死刑是错误的呢?
575	I don't accept that one at all because you're just assuming your conclusion here.	我完全不接受因为你只是假设你的结论
576	Are you with me?	你明白吗?
577	So when you say that an argument is a fallacy, you're not necessarily saying it's invalid,	所以,当你说一个争论是谬误, 你不一定说它是无效的,
578	but you are saying there's something wrong with it.	但你在说这有问题
579	There's something wrong that means it's not persuasive.	有一些错误表示它没有说服力.
580	It shouldn't persuade you.	不应劝汝.
581	Often that'll be the case because it's invalid, but not always.	经常是这样,因为它是无效的,但并不总是。
582	And certainly with cases of circularity and question begging, that isn't the case.	当然,在循环和质疑乞讨的情况下,情况并非如此。
583	Okay, any other question before we move on?	好吧,还有别的问题吗?
584	No?	是吗?
585	Okay, let's...	好吧,让我们...
586	Okay, where are the question begging premises in each of the following arguments?	好吧,问题在哪里乞讨的前提在以下每一个论点?
587	Let's do an...	让我们做一个...
588	So intoxicated beverages should be banned because they make people drunk.	故醉酒应禁,因使人醉酒.
589	Let's set out the logic book style before we do that.	在这样做之前,我们先阐明逻辑书的风格.
590	We might need to suppress firms.	我们可能需要压制公司。
591	So what's the argument here?	那这里有什么争论?
592	Think about it for yourself and then put your hands up when you've put out the argument logic book style.	为自己考虑一下,然后把手举起来,当你把辩证逻辑书的风格拿出来.
593	Yes, being drunk is bad or something like that, or beverages that make people drunk should be bad.	是的,喝醉是坏的或类似的东西, 或饮料让人们喝醉应该是坏的。
594	That's probably the right one.	这可能是对的。
595	Beverages that make people drunk should be banned.	应禁止使人醉酒的饮料.
596	Intoxicated beverages make people drunk, therefore intoxicating beverages should be banned.	醉酒使人醉酒,因此应该禁止醉酒.
597	What's the question begging bit?	有什么问题要问吗?
598	Which premise would you reject?	你拒绝哪个前提?
599	You couldn't have a beverage that's intoxicating without having a beverage that would make you drunk	你喝不醉的饮料喝不醉的
600	because an intoxicating beverage is exactly a beverage that makes you drunk, isn't it?	因为喝醉的饮料正是让你喝醉的饮料,不是吗?
601	The fact is you're not going to be able to reject that argument because it's assuming its conclusion in its premises.	事实是你不会拒绝这个论点因为它假设它的结论在它的前提。
602	So beverages that make people drunk should be banned.	故应禁止使人醉酒的饮料.
603	Intoxicating beverages make people drunk, therefore intoxicating beverages should be banned.	醉酒使人醉酒,因此应该禁止醉酒.
604	It's a valid argument, but it's not ever going to persuade you.	辩才有效,但终不能劝.
605	Well, let's go back to this one.	好吧,让我们回到这个。
606	Let's go back to...	我们回去...
607	Can you see that now you might be for capital punishment or against it,	你可以看到,现在你可能是死刑或反对它,
608	but anyone who made this argument is clearly against capital punishment, aren't they?	但任何提出这一论点的人显然反对死刑,不是吗?
609	So they would be making the argument in order to try and persuade someone who's for capital punishment or neutral either way	因此,他们会提出这个论点为了试图说服某人谁的死刑或中立的方式
610	to agree with them that capital punishment is wrong, right?	同意他们的观点死刑是错误的,对不对?
611	And the problem with the argument they offer is that it's not going to convince anyone	而他们提出的论点的问题是它不会说服任何人
612	who isn't already convinced of the argument, is it?	谁已经不相信这个论点,是吗?
613	Because I might say I'm for capital punishment.	因为我可以说我是死刑犯
614	I might accept that premise as our starting point of agreement,	我可能接受这个前提作为我们达成协议的起点,
615	but as soon as we get to that one I'm going to say, hang on, no, why should I accept that?	但是,一旦我们到了那个,我要说, 坚持,不,我为什么要接受?
616	You're assuming that capital punishment is wrong in making that premise.	你假设死刑是错的?
617	If you change that premise to capital punishment involves killing human beings, that's fine,	如果你把前提改为死刑包括杀人那没关系
618	but then your argument isn't valid.	但你的论点是无效的
619	The only way you can make your argument valid is by putting murdering in,	你唯一能证明你的论点成立的方法就是把谋杀放进去
620	and then it's valid because it begs the question, and therefore it's not persuasive.	而后因为求问而有效,因此没有说服力.
621	So in exactly the same way, if somebody was making this argument, say I didn't believe whales were mammals,	所以同样如果有人提出这个论点说我不认为鲸鱼是哺乳动物
622	OK, I thought whales were fish.	我以为鲸鱼是鱼
623	Whales are obviously fish, aren't they?	鲸鱼显然是鱼不是吗?
624	I mean, we've discussed this before.	我的意思是,我们已经讨论过这一点。
625	Anyway, if they tell me whales are mammals, OK, so I don't believe whales are mammals,	总之如果他们告诉我鲸鱼是哺乳动物好吧所以我不相信鲸鱼是哺乳动物
626	and you're trying to convince me.	你想说服我
627	If you offer me this argument and say, well, here's a good argument for whales being mammals,	如果你提出这个论点并说, 好吧,这里有一个很好的论点鲸鱼是哺乳动物,
628	I'm going to say, no, no, that's not a good argument at all.	我要说,不,不,这不是一个很好的争论。
629	Why should I agree with you on that premise?	我为什么要同意你的前提?
630	In that premise, you're just assuming your answer, sorry, your conclusion.	在这个前提下,你只是假设你的答案,对不起,你的结论。
631	So you've got a valid argument, but it's hopelessly unpersuasive.	所以,你有一个有效的争论, 但这是无望的无劝阻。
632	Therefore, it's not a good argument.	因此,这不是一个很好的论点.
633	And this one is only slightly different in that instead of the premise actually being the same as the conclusion,	而这一个只是稍有不同, 与其说前提实际上与结论相同,
634	the premise assumes the conclusion.	假设结论。
635	So if you're using this argument against me, it's not going to persuade me of anything, is it?	所以,如果你利用这个争论来反对我, 它不会说服我任何事情,是吗?
636	And that's what's wrong with it, not that it's not valid.	然则其弊也,非其理也.
637	So we're looking at fallacies of vacuity.	故观察虚空之谬.
638	We've looked at fallacies of relevance.	我们研究了与此相关的谬误。
639	We're now looking at fallacies of vacuity.	今观虚空之谬.
640	And we've looked firstly at circular arguments where the conclusion is one of the premises.	我们首先研究的是循环辩论, 其中结论是前提之一。
641	Tell me again why that would convince anyone if you've made an argument where the conclusion is amongst the premises,	再说一遍,如果你们争吵一下,为什么会说服别人?
642	because it's valid, and because the fact that the conclusion is amongst the premises may be hidden among all sorts of other premises.	因为它是有效的, 并且因为这个结论位于房地中的事实可能隐藏在各种其他房地中。
643	So you just don't notice that the conclusion is there.	所以,你只是不注意结论在那里。
644	Then we looked at question-banging arguments, and we tied ourselves in knots, or I tied myself in a knot.	然后我们审视了质疑性争论, 我们把自己绑在了结里, 或者我把自己绑在了结里。
645	But the idea here is that instead of the conclusion being amongst the premises itself,	但这里的想法是, 与其说结论在前提本身,
646	there is amongst the premises a premise that assumes the conclusion.	在前提中有一个假设结论的前提。
647	That's the difference between those two.	二者分别.
648	And finally, we're going to look at arguments that are self-sealing.	最后,我们将研究一些自封的论点。
649	OK, a self-sealing argument.	好吧,一个自封的争论。
650	Two weeks from today at 2.45, you're going to be doing exactly what you are doing.	两周后2点45分你会做你正在做的事
651	Well, it will be a true statement, won't it?	好吧,这将是一个真实的声明,不是吗?
652	I mean, that couldn't be false, could it?	我的意思是,这不可能是虚假的,不是吗?
653	But it's not a persuasive argument.	但这不是一个有说服力的论点.
654	Why not?	为什么不呢?
655	It's completely vacuous.	它完全空虚。
656	It says absolutely nothing, does it?	它说绝对没有,是吗?
657	It doesn't give you any prediction.	它不给你任何预测。
658	It doesn't limit the possibilities at all.	这完全没有限制可能性.
659	It just tells you you're going to be doing whatever you're going to be doing, which has to be true.	它只是告诉你,你会做你要去做什么,这是必须的。
660	Not persuasive.	没有说服力
661	Here's one that actually lots of people do think is persuasive.	这是很多人认为有说服力的。
662	We must respect all moral beliefs, therefore moral relativism is true.	我们必须尊重所有道德信仰,因此道德相对主义是真实的.
663	This is called vulgar relativism by a chap called Bernard Williams, famous philosopher.	这被著名的哲学家伯纳德·威廉姆斯(Bernard Williams)称为粗俗相对主义.
664	The reason that's a self-sealing argument is that is a moral absolute.	所谓自封之辩,是道德之绝对.
665	We must respect all moral beliefs.	我们必须尊重所有道德信仰。
666	You cannot derive moral relativism from a moral absolute.	你不能从道德绝对论中得出道德相对论.
667	If that premise is true, then that conclusion is false.	如果这个前提是真的,那么这个结论就是错误的。
668	And if the conclusion is true, the premise is false.	如果结论是真的,前提是假的。
669	So it's a bad argument because it goes around in circles.	所以这是个糟糕的争论,因为它绕圈子。
670	Actually, that's self-defeating rather than self-sealing.	实际上,这是自负而不是自封.
671	Yes, that actually should be in a slightly different category.	是的,这实际上应该属于一个略有不同的类别。
672	But here's another one that you may have, variants of it will have caught you out at some point, I'm sure.	但还有一个你可能拥有的, 它的变体会在某个时候抓住你,我敢肯定。
673	Global economy is controlled by Jews and any appearance to the contrary is the result of Jewish cleverness.	全球经济由犹太人控制,任何相反的外表都是犹太人聪明的结果.
674	Women are stupid and any appearance to the contrary is just because they're quite good at covering it over sometimes.	女人是愚蠢的,任何相反的外表只是因为他们相当擅长掩盖它有时。
675	So again, a self-sealing argument because you know that you can't be refuted because whatever happens, you've got some reason for why what you're saying is true.	再说一次,一个自封的争论,因为你知道你不能被反驳,因为不管发生什么,你都有你所说的是真实的某种理由.
676	So some self-sealing arguments move back and forth from interesting but false claims.	因此,一些自封的论点从有趣的但虚假的主张中前后移动.
677	For example, you might say all human beings are selfish and you won't say, well, hang on, that's not true.	例如,你可能会说所有的人都是自私的,你不会说,好吧,坚持住,那不是真的。
678	Lots of people are altruistic.	很多人都是利他主义的
679	They do things for other people.	他们为别人做事
680	And then you say, oh, yes, but they're still doing it because they want to.	然后你说,哦,是的,但他们仍然这样做因为他们想这样做。
681	I mean, Mother Teresa, I mean, she wouldn't have helped all those people unless she wanted to.	特蕾莎修女除非她愿意否则她不会帮助那些人的
682	And you say, well, no, she did it out of duty.	你说,好吧,不,她这样做是出于职责。
683	And so you say, well, yes, but she wanted to do her duty, didn't she?	所以你说,嗯,是的, 但她想做她的职责,不是吗?
684	I mean, she still wanted to do what she did.	我的意思是,她仍然想做她做了什么。
685	So the only thing she did was what she wanted to do.	所以她唯一做的就是她想要做的事
686	So she's selfish as everyone else.	所以她和别人一样自私
687	You know what's happening here?	你知道这里发生了什么吗?
688	Well, what's happening is that someone's moving from an interesting but false claim to a true but vacuous claim.	发生的事情是有人正在从一个有趣但虚假的宣称变成一个真实但空洞的宣称
689	And what they'll do is they'll move backwards and forwards between the two until you've got yourself thoroughly tied in a knot.	他们要做的是,在你把自己完全捆绑起来之前,他们会前后移动。
690	And what you need to do is separate out the two claims that are being made and show why one of them is meaningless, even if true.	你需要做的是把正在提出的两项主张分开,并表明其中之一为何毫无意义,即使是真的。
691	So three ways that an argument can be self-sealing.	故辩才能自封三种法.
692	It can invent ad hoc ways to dismiss criticism.	它可以发明临时的方法来驳回批评.
693	So if my prediction didn't work, it's because there were negative vibes in the room.	所以,如果我的预测无效的话, 这是因为房间里有负面的氛围。
694	OK, you know, it's all your fault.	好吧,你知道,这都是你的错。
695	It can attack its critics as unable to see the benefits of the position.	它可以攻击批评者,认为他们看不到立场的好处.
696	So, you know, the only reason you don't see that the world's been taken over by Jews or women or blacks or whatever is because you've been taken in by them.	所以,你知道,唯一的原因你没有看到世界被犹太人或女人或黑人接管或什么的,
697	Or another one there is, you know, you're in denial.	或者还有另一个,你知道的,你是在否认。
698	Therefore, you don't understand what I'm saying about your appalling desires and what have you.	因此,你不明白我在说什么关于你骇人听闻的欲望和你有。
699	It can also redefine key words.	也可以重新定义关键词.
700	So it's selfish to always be doing just what you want to do.	所以总是做你想做的事很自私
701	Well, it depends how you interpret just what you want to do there.	那要看你怎么解释你想在那里做什么
702	If you interpret so even Mother Teresa was doing just what she wanted to do, then you might need to have another look at what you mean by selfish.	如果你这样解释甚至特蕾莎修女也在做她想做的事那你可能需要再看看你自私是什么意思
703	OK, finally, we're going to look at fallacies of clarity.	OK,最后,我们要看看模糊的谬误。
704	And I want to use some time for questions.	我想用点时间来提问
705	Sorry, you've got a question.	对不起,你有一个问题。
706	Well, on the on this one, as soon as you have the feeling that you're being moved from between two different propositions,	好吧,在这个方面, 一旦你有感觉你被从两个不同的命题之间转移,
707	one of which is false and interesting and the other is is safe.	其中一种是虚假和有趣的,另一种是安全的。
708	Ask for time out if you can, because that's the only way you're going to do it.	如果可以的话,请求暂停,因为只有这样才能做到.
709	And of course, this is what you won't get.	当然,这是你得不到的。
710	And try and identify what the two propositions are.	并尝试确定这两个命题是什么.
711	So in this case, you want to say, OK, the meaning of selfish is usually isn't interested in what anyone else wants,	所以在这种情况下,你想说,好吧, 自私的意义通常不感兴趣别人想要什么,
712	in which case Mother Teresa wouldn't be selfish because she is interested in what other people want.	特蕾莎修女不会自私因为她喜欢别人想要什么
713	Then you say, but then your other claim is that somebody selfish only if they sorry,	然后你说,但你的另一个说法是一个自私的人,只有他们道歉,
714	it's sufficient for being selfish that somebody acts on what they themselves want.	它足以满足于自私某人的行为他们自己想要。
715	And actually, that's not usually the definition of selfish.	实际上,这不是自私的定义。
716	So identify the weasel word and get out the two definitions and then show that somebody's flipping between one and the other is the way to do that.	所以,找出黄鼠狼的词, 并拿出两个定义, 然后显示有人在一种和另一种之间翻转是这样做的方法。
717	OK, fallacies of the heap.	好吧,错的堆。
718	If you have only one penny, you're not rich.	如果你只有一分钱,你就不有钱了。
719	If you're not rich and I give you a penny, then you still won't be rich.	如果你不有钱,我给你一分钱,那么你还是不会有钱.
720	It doesn't matter how many pennies I give you, then you won't be rich.	我给你多少便士,你就不会有钱了
721	OK, is that a good argument?	好吧,这是个很好的争论吗?
722	No.	没有
723	Why not?	为什么不呢?
724	I mean, is that false?	我的意思是,这是假的吗?
725	No.	没有
726	OK, is that false?	好吧,这是假的吗?
727	Is that?	是吗?
728	No, it's not false, is it?	不,这不是假的,是吗?
729	I mean, that's true.	我的意思是,这是真的。
730	If you gave me a penny, sadly, you wouldn't make me rich.	如果你给我一分钱, 可悲的是,你不会让我发财。
731	OK, so that's true and that's true.	好吧,所以这是真实的,这是真实的。
732	Is that true?	是吗?
733	OK, is this valid?	好吧,这是有效的吗?
734	Is there any possible situation where those two are both true and this is false?	这两种情况是否都是真实和虚假的?
735	Yes.	对
736	OK, this is actually not a valid argument at all, is it?	好吧,这实际上不是一个有效的争论,是吗?
737	It's trading on the fact that many words are vague.	以许多文字模糊的事实为交易.
738	They admit to borderline cases.	他们承认了边缘案件
739	So any word you can think of like tall, fat, clever.	所以,任何你能想到的词,像高,胖,聪明。
740	Can you think of a few others?	你能想到其他人吗?
741	Rich is one of them.	富贵是其中之一.
742	Yep.	对
743	Long.	长.
744	Poor.	贫道.
745	Yep.	对
746	Any word that admits of degrees, admits of borderline cases, you can construct a heap argument for the fallacy of the heap.	任何承认学位的词,承认边线案例的词,你都可以为堆积的谬误构建一个堆积的论据.
747	And so that's the fact that words do admit a borderline cases and the idea that a series of insignificant differences can't result in a significant difference.	因此,文字确实承认了一种界限性的情况,也承认了一系列无关紧要的差异不能导致显著的差异.
748	And of course, it's this one here that's that's at fault because a series of insignificant differences.	当然,是这里的这个问题, 是因为一系列微不足道的差别。
749	If we take blue at this end of the stage and red at this end of the stage, they're two different colors, aren't they?	如果我们在舞台的这一端取蓝色,在舞台的这一端取红色,它们就是两种不同的颜色,不是吗?
750	But we can go from one to the other in a series of gradations where you would say in each case, they're the same color, the same color, the same color.	但是我们可以在一系列的分级中从一个到另一个, 在每种情况下你都会说,它们都是相同的颜色, 相同的颜色, 相同的颜色。
751	So A and B are the same.	因此A和B是相同的.
752	B and C are the same.	B和C是一样的。
753	But A and C are not the same.	但A和C不一样
754	OK, they're intransitive.	OK,他们是不易的。
755	So when you're making an argument, you should try and avoid words that are grading words, scaling words.	所以,当你在争论的时候,你应该尽量避免那些是分级词,缩放词的词.
756	And how would you stop these being vague?	你怎能阻止这些模糊不清的事?
757	If you had had John has a nice income, what might you say instead of that?	如果你有约翰的收入不错, 你会说什么代替呢?
758	Say it again.	再说一遍
759	Some of you.	诸人中.
760	Good.	不错
761	John is in the top 10th percentile of income earners or something like that.	约翰是收入最高的10% 或类似的东西。
762	Yeah.	对
763	OK.	摆
764	Cocaine is a dangerous drug.	可卡因是一种危险的药物。
765	Cocaine is addictive or cocaine.	可卡因有上瘾性或可卡因。
766	You could say the same sort of thing.	你可以这么说
767	Yep.	对
768	Or whatever.	或有随缘.
769	Exactly.	没错
770	That's what you're trying to do is eliminate the vagueness by being more exact in some way or another.	这就是你试图做的就是通过某种方式更精确地消除模糊.
771	So Mary is a clever woman.	玛丽是个聪明的女人
772	You can just say Mary has got three degrees and a Ph.D. or something like that.	你可以说玛丽有3个学位和博士学位之类的
773	Jane is a terrific tennis player.	简是一个出色的网球运动员。
774	Jane is what?	简是什么?
775	Yes.	对
776	OK. Good.	摆不错
777	Dead easy.	很简单
778	Slippery slope fallacy.	滑坡谬论.
779	This is another fallacy of ambiguity.	这是另一个含糊不清的谬误。
780	Humans are rational.	人类是理性的。
781	Sorry.	对不起
782	In clarity, human irrational because they act for reasons.	明晰地说,人类不合理,因为他们的行为是有原因的.
783	Radiators turn themselves on when it's cold.	辐射器在冷的时候会打开
784	Therefore, radiators are rational.	因此,散热器是合理的。
785	Now, don't laugh, because actually lots of people try and convince me of this, because I I I don't believe animals are rational.	现在,不要笑, 因为实际上很多人试图说服我, 因为我不相信动物是理性的。
786	And people always tell me that I should believe animals are rational because they act for reasons.	人们总是告诉我,我应该相信动物是理性的, 因为他们的行为是有原因的。
787	And some people want to say that even radiators are rational because when it's cold, they turn themselves on, except in Rowley House.	而有些人想说,即使是散热器也是理性的,因为当冷却时,它们会自燃,除了在罗利之家.
788	But I mean, it's usually the case.	但通常都是这样
789	And therefore there's it has a belief that it's cold and a desire that it should not be cold.	因此,它有一种信念,认为它很冷,并且渴望它不应该冷.
790	And therefore it acts.	因此,它采取行动。
791	Why isn't that rational?	为什么这不合理?
792	But again, we're doing the same thing, aren't we?	再说一遍,我们也是这么做的,不是吗?
793	Because here are radiators down at one end of acting for reasons.	因为这里有散热器因为原因在一端
794	And here are human beings up at the other end of acting for reasons.	而这里是人类在另一端行动的原因。
795	And we're saying that there's no difference between the two.	且说二法无分别.
796	So any slippery slope arguments can fall foul of that just quickly.	因此,任何滑坡的争论都可以很快地犯规。
797	Slippery slope depends on the idea that we shouldn't distinguish between things that are not significantly different.	滑坡取决于我们不应该区分那些没有显著区别的东西的想法.
798	And the belief that if A isn't significantly different from B and B is not significantly different from C, then A isn't significantly different from C.	而认为如果A与B和B没有显著的区别,那么A与C没有显著的区别.
799	And again, that's true only if you've got something that's transitive.	再说一次,只有你有过渡性的东西,才是真的。
800	And there are many, many things that are not transitive.	有许多东西不是过渡性的。
801	Of course, sometimes you I mean, one way of avoiding a slippery slope is actually to define something.	当然,有时你我的意思是, 避免滑坡的方法之一实际上是定义一些东西。
802	We have to use slippery slopes sometimes, don't we?	我们有时必须用滑坡,不是吗?
803	When we think about, you know, well, why should we have the age of being allowed to marry at 16 without your parents' permission or whatever it is?	当我们想,你知道,嗯, 为什么我们有年龄允许结婚16 未经你父母的许可或什么的?
804	Or the age of being able to drink whatever it is?	或能饮其物之年?
805	Actually, I have no idea what it is.	事实上,我不知道是什么
806	18, is it?	18,是吗?
807	Right.	对
808	What happens between the last day that you're 17 and the first day that you're 18 that makes it possible for you to drink on one day and not drink on the other legally?	在最后一天你17岁到第一天你18岁之间会发生什么,使你一天可以喝酒,而另一天不能合法喝酒?
809	I mean, this is just daft, isn't it?	我的意思是,这是愚蠢的,不是吗?
810	Well, it is daft, of course, but here you have to make a cutoff point at some point.	当然,这是愚蠢的, 但在这里,你必须做出一个临界点在某个时候。
811	And what the slippery slope is, it can say, well, OK, there isn't an obvious difference, but we have to make it on somewhere or that we can just make one by regulation or whatever.	滑坡是什么,它可以说, 好了,没有明显的区别, 但是我们必须在某个地方做到这一点, 或者我们可以只是通过监管或什么的来做一个。
812	But slippery slopes trade on this particular problem.	但滑坡交易这个特殊的问题。
813	Here's another one.	这里还有一个。
814	Mary had a little lamb.	玛丽有一个小羊羔。
815	He followed her to school.	他跟着她上学。
816	Mary had a little lamb.	玛丽有一个小羊羔。
817	Then she had a little broccoli.	然后她有一点西兰花。
818	We can see that that's an equivocation.	我们可以看到,这是一个模棱两可。
819	It's not actually clear what it's an equivocation on, is it?	其实还不清楚它有什么模棱两可不是吗?
820	Is it lamb or is it had or little?	是羊肉还是小羊肉?
821	Well, and little, actually, isn't it?	嗯,而且很少,实际上,不是吗?
822	Because had means possessed, whereas in the first one and the second one, it means eight, doesn't it?	因为有被附身的手段, 而第一和第二, 它意味着8,不是吗?
823	Little lamb in the first one is a bit different from little lamb in the second one and so on.	第一只小羊肉与第二只小羊肉等有点不同.
824	Here's an equivocation.	这里有一个模棱两可。
825	OK, a feather is light.	好吧,羽毛是轻的。
826	What is light cannot be dark.	光线不能是黑暗的。
827	Therefore, a feather can't be dark.	因此,羽毛不能变黑.
828	What's the equivocation there?	那边有什么模棱两可的?
829	The word light.	字灯光.
830	In the first case, it means light as a feather weight wise.	第一种情况下,意思是轻如羽毛重量智慧.
831	And the second case, we're talking about light as opposed to dark.	第二例,我们谈论的是光明而不是黑暗。
832	So that's the fallacy of equivocation.	这就是模糊的谬误。
833	There are three types of ambiguity.	释义有三种.
834	Lexical.	语法性.
835	So what's wrong with that one?	那这个怎么了?
836	I thought it was rum is that rum is itself ambiguous.	我以为是朗姆酒朗姆酒本身是含糊不清的
837	That's a word that can mean different things.	这个词可以指不同的东西。
838	In the second one, Bert was a fat stock breeder.	在第二部中,伯特是一个脂肪种群饲养者.
839	What's the ambiguity there?	有什么模棱两可的?
840	Give me the two understandings of that term.	说说这个术语的两种理解.
841	Right.	对
842	Either Bert was fat or the stock was fat.	伯特不是胖子就是股票胖子
843	That's right.	没错
844	So it's the scope of fat.	故曰脂之范围.
845	So Bert was fat and Bert was a stock breeder.	所以伯特是胖子,伯特是种群饲养者.
846	Or is it that fat goes with stock breeder?	还是胖子和种群饲养员在一起?
847	So Bert was a fat stock breeder.	所以伯特是个胖子养殖师
848	OK, those are the two.	好吧,这是两个。
849	And then finally, cross-reference.	最后,相互参照。
850	My wife's cousin is engaged to her former husband.	我妻子的表妹和她前夫订婚了
851	What's the ambiguity there?	有什么模棱两可的?
852	So either my wife's cousin is engaged to my wife's former husband	所以,要么我妻子的表弟订婚了我的妻子的前夫
853	or my wife's cousin is engaged to the cousin she,	或者我妻子的表妹和她表妹订婚了
854	the wife's cousin, had before,	他妻子的表弟,曾经,
855	now that she's married for the second time to the same person.	现在,她第二次嫁给同一个人。
856	OK, explain the ambiguities in these sentences.	好吧,解释这些句子的模糊之处。
857	No one likes Oxford and Cambridge students.	没有人喜欢牛津和剑桥的学生.
858	Good.	不错
859	OK, nobody likes students who've been to Oxford and Cambridge	好吧,没有人喜欢学生谁去过牛津和剑桥
860	or nobody likes Oxford students and nobody likes Cambridge students.	或者没人喜欢牛津大学的学生没人喜欢剑桥大学的学生
861	Yes, no one likes Oxford and no one likes Cambridge students.	是的,没有人喜欢牛津, 没有人喜欢剑桥的学生。
862	Yes, that would be another one.	是的,这将是另一个。
863	Every nice girl loves a sailor.	每个好女孩都喜欢水手
864	Actually, if you were able to formalise things,	实际上如果你能把事情正式化
865	you would find it very easy to do this	你会发现这样做很容易
866	because this could mean there is a sailor	因为这可能意味着有一个水手
867	such that every nice girl loves him	这样,每个好女孩都爱他
868	or every nice girl is such that there is a sailor whom she loves.	或者每个好女孩都爱着水手
869	You with me?	你明白吗?
870	So every girl is such, sorry,	所以每个女孩都是这样的,对不起,
871	there is a sailor such that every girl loves him	有一个水手这样每个女孩都爱他
872	or every nice girl loves some sailor.	或者每个好女孩都喜欢水手
873	OK, so in the second case, there are lots of different sailors.	好吧,在第二种情况下,有很多不同的水手。
874	In the first case, there's just one sailor who's loved by all the girls.	第一种情况下,只有一个水手受到所有女孩的喜爱.
875	So that's a structural ambiguity.	所以这是结构上的模糊。
876	Our shoes are guaranteed to give you a fit.	我们的鞋子可以让你发火
877	I can see you've got that one.	我看得出来你得到了那个。
878	OK, irritating children should be banned.	好吧,应该禁止刺激儿童。
879	That's right.	没错
880	What are we banning?	我们禁止什么?
881	Children who are irritating or the irritating of children?	刺激或刺激儿童的儿童?
882	OK, what about the last one?	好吧,那最后一个呢?
883	Can anyone tell me what the ambiguity is here?	有人能告诉我这里有什么模糊之处吗?
884	This is more difficult.	这更难
885	You'll kick yourselves, but you'll also think that I've cheated you.	你会踢自己, 但你也会认为我欺骗了你。
886	Why do swallows fly south for winter?	燕子为什么南飞过冬?
887	Is that ambiguous?	模棱两可吗?
888	OK, and all it was is the intonation there.	好吧,它只是在那里的融合。
889	I managed to give it lots of different meanings.	我给了它很多不同的含义。
890	So you shouldn't think that actually the ambiguity might just be in the lexicon,	所以,你不应该认为其实模糊可能只是在词典中,
891	in the structure, and in the cross-references.	在结构, 和交叉引用。
892	Sometimes you can put it in just by the tone,	有时候你只要用语气就能放进去
893	the emphasis you give on the words that you use.	你对用词的强调。
894	Right, OK, that's it for the lectures.	好了,好了,讲课就到此为止
895	Thank you.	谢谢
896	Well, thank you, too.	嗯,谢谢你,太。
897	Thank you.	谢谢

该视频共有字幕 901 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到价格

下载安装