【BBC六分钟】气候模型到底能不能“预测未来”？超级计算机背
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:07 | Hello. | 哈罗 |
| 0:08 | This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. | 这是6分钟英语 来自BBC学习英语。 |
| 0:11 | I'm Phil. | 我是菲尔。 |
| 0:12 | And I'm Pippa. | 我是皮帕,我是皮帕 我是皮帕,我是皮帕,我是皮帕 |
| 0:13 | This summer is becoming one of the hottest ever, with heat waves across Europe. | 今年夏天是有史以来最热的一年, 热浪遍及欧洲。 |
| 0:19 | Here | 给 |
| 0:20 | in the UK, a new record for the highest June temperature was set at a sweltering 37.7 degrees | 在英国,6月最高气温的新纪录设定为37.7度 |
| 0:29 | It seems that year after year, temperatures are going up. | 年复一年,气温上升 |
| 0:34 | In 2015, the COP21 summit agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. | 2015年,COP21峰会同意将全球变暖限为1.5摄氏度. |
| 0:39 | But | 不过 |
展开字幕全文（98 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello. | 哈罗 |
| 2 | This is 6 Minute English from BBC Learning English. | 这是6分钟英语 来自BBC学习英语。 |
| 3 | I'm Phil. | 我是菲尔。 |
| 4 | And I'm Pippa. | 我是皮帕,我是皮帕 我是皮帕,我是皮帕,我是皮帕 |
| 5 | This summer is becoming one of the hottest ever, with heat waves across Europe. | 今年夏天是有史以来最热的一年, 热浪遍及欧洲。 |
| 6 | Here | 给 |
| 7 | in the UK, a new record for the highest June temperature was set at a sweltering 37.7 degrees | 在英国,6月最高气温的新纪录设定为37.7度 |
| 8 | It seems that year after year, temperatures are going up. | 年复一年,气温上升 |
| 9 | In 2015, the COP21 summit agreed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. | 2015年,COP21峰会同意将全球变暖限为1.5摄氏度. |
| 10 | But | 不过 |
| 11 | since then, research shows temperatures exceeding that, leading to warnings of catastrophic | 自那时起,研究显示气温超过此值,导致出现灾难性警报。 |
| 12 | damage to Earth's life support systems. | 破坏地球的生命支撑系统 |
| 13 | In this episode, we'll be discussing how hot the planet could get using some useful | 在这个剧集中,我们将讨论 这个星球会有多热 用一些有用的 |
| 14 | new vocabulary. | 新词汇。 |
| 15 | And remember, you'll find a free transcript to read along with on our | 记住,你会找到免费的笔录 与我们一起阅读 |
| 16 | 网站 bbclearningenglish.com. (原始内容存档于2018-09-29). | |
| 17 | But first, I have a question for you, Phil. | 但首先 我有个问题要问你 菲尔 |
| 18 | Scientists monitor climate change using the | 科学家利用 |
| 19 | Earth's energy imbalance, the difference between the solar energy entering the Earth's atmosphere | 地球能量的不平衡 太阳能量进入地球大气层的差别 |
| 20 | and the radiation going back out into space. | 辐射会回到太空 |
| 21 | But which unit do scientists use for this? | 但科学家用哪个单位来做这个? |
| 22 | Is it A, Fahrenheit, B, watts per square metre, or C, joules? | 是A,华氏,B,瓦特每平方米,还是C,焦耳? |
| 23 | Ooh, I know joules is something to do with energy, so I'm going to go with C. | 我知道焦耳和能量有关 所以我要和C一起去 |
| 24 | Well, we'll find out the answer at the end of the programme, although careful listeners | 好吧,我们会找出答案 在节目的结尾, 虽然仔细的听众 |
| 25 | might hear the answer sooner. | 可能早点听到答案 |
| 26 | Ooh! | 瓳 |
| 27 | Yes, exciting. | 是的,令人兴奋。 |
| 28 | So, how do scientists calculate the effects of climate change in the first place? | 那么,科学家们如何计算气候变化的影响呢? |
| 29 | The answer is with models. | 答案是与模型。 |
| 30 | Huge amounts of physical and chemical data are fed into | 大量物理和化学数据被输入 |
| 31 | supercomputers, which then paint pictures of possible futures on Earth. | 超级计算机,然后画出地球上可能的未来的图片. |
| 32 | But as NASA climate | 但作为NASA的气候 |
| 33 | scientist Kate Marvell explained to BBC World Service programme The Climate Question, | 科学家凯特·马维尔(英语:Kate Marvel)向英国广播公司世界服务节目"气候问题"(The Climate Question)解释, |
| 34 | nothing is certain. | 没什么是肯定的。 |
| 35 | Climate models don't make predictions, they make projections. | 气候模型不做预测,它们做预测. |
| 36 | Predictions are saying this is what | 预言是这样说的 |
| 37 | will happen. | 将会发生。 |
| 38 | And a projection is conditional. | 而投影是有条件的。 |
| 39 | A projection is if we do this, then this will happen. | 一个预测是,如果我们这样做, 那么这将发生。 |
| 40 | Climate models don't make predictions, those are statements about what's likely to happen. | 气候模型不会作出预测, 这些都是关于会发生什么的声明。 |
| 41 | Instead, they make projections about different possible futures, and these depend on many things. | 相反,他们预测了不同的可能的未来,而这些取决于许多事情。 |
| 42 | In other words, climate models are conditional, meaning that they depend on other factors. | 换句话说,气候模型是有条件的,这意味着它们依赖于其他因素. |
| 43 | The main factor in climate change, of course, is human activity, especially greenhouse gas | 气候变化的主要因素当然是人类活动,特别是温室气体。 |
| 44 | emissions. | 排放量。 |
| 45 | Another influence on climate models is clouds. | 对气候模型的另一个影响是云. |
| 46 | We usually associate hot summers with cloudless | 我们通常把炎热的夏天和无云地联系起来 |
| 47 | blue skies. | 蓝天 |
| 48 | But in fact, clouds play a big part in the climate, as Kate Marvell explained | 但事实上 云在气候中扮演了重要角色 正如凯特·马维尔所解释的 |
| 49 | to the BBC World Service. | 致英国广播公司世界服务社 |
| 50 | So the thing about clouds is that they have this dual effect. | 因此,关于云,它们具有这种双重效果。 |
| 51 | They both cool the planet by | 他们都冷却地球 |
| 52 | blocking sunlight, and they warm the planet because they have their own greenhouse effect. | 挡住阳光,它们让地球暖和 因为它们有自己的温室效应。 |
| 53 | Right now, the unit that scientists use to measure the energy imbalance of the planet, | 现在,科学家用来测量地球能量不平衡的单位, |
| 54 | how much it's out of whack, is watts, like in a light bulb, per square metre. | 每平方米的电瓦就像灯泡一样 |
| 55 | Kate starts by saying the thing about clouds is she uses the expression the thing about | 凯特首先说 关于云的事是 她用表达 |
| 56 | to introduce the most important detail about something. | 介绍最重要的细节 |
| 57 | Here, that detail is that clouds both cool the planet by blocking sunlight, but also | 在这里,这个细节是,云层 既冷却地球 通过阻挡阳光, |
| 58 | warm it by trapping heat. | 通过捕捉热量来温暖它。 |
| 59 | So climate models monitor clouds to accurately measure how much the Earth is out of whack. | 因此,气候模型监测云层 准确测量地球的消耗量。 |
| 60 | If something is out of whack, it's out of balance and not working properly. | 如果某件事出了问题, 它的平衡和不工作正常。 |
| 61 | Climate models sound very complicated to me, Pippa. | 气候模型听起来很复杂,皮帕 |
| 62 | For one thing, how can you monitor clouds | 首先,你怎么能监视云 |
| 63 | which are constantly moving and changing? | 哪些在不断移动和变化? |
| 64 | Yeah, and how much information from around the world would the supercomputers need to | 超级计算机需要多少信息? |
| 65 | make accurate projections? | 准确预测? |
| 66 | It's a concern that BBC presenter Greia Jackson raised with | 英国广播公司主持人Greia Jackson 提出的关注 |
| 67 | 凯特·马维尔为BBC世界服务节目The Climate Question. | |
| 68 | Surely we need to know the trajectory we're heading in, in order to adapt. | 我们当然需要知道我们前进的轨迹 为了适应 |
| 69 | Oh, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 70 | You know, I am very pro-science. | 你知道,我非常赞成科学。 |
| 71 | I am very pro-doing science because no climate | 我非常支持科学 因为没有气候 |
| 72 | change is unfortunately not on the table. | 不幸的是,改革没有摆在桌面上。 |
| 73 | Kate is very pro-science. | 凯特非常支持科学 |
| 74 | If you're pro-something, it means you're in favour of it. | 如是拥护者即是拥护. |
| 75 | Models are | 模型为 |
| 76 | complex, but they're necessary because unfortunately no climate change at all is not on the table. | 复杂,但它们是必要的, 因为不幸的是,没有任何气候变化 没有摆在桌面上。 |
| 77 | And that's an idiom meaning it's not an option. | 这是一个典型的,意思是它不是一个选择。 |
| 78 | If all this sounds a bit depressing, Kate's final message is more hopeful. | 如果这一切听起来有点压抑,凯特的最后信息更充满希望. |
| 79 | Climate models | 气候模型 |
| 80 | prove beyond doubt that the problem of global warming is created by humans, | 无疑地证明全球变暖问题是人类造成的, |
| 81 | so we know beyond doubt that the solution is also in our hands. | 因此,我们毫无疑问地知道,解决办法也掌握在我们手中。 |
| 82 | Now Pippa, careful listeners might already know, but go ahead and reveal the correct | 现在,皮帕,小心听者可能已经知道了, 但继续,揭示正确的 |
| 83 | answer to your question. | 回答你的问题。 |
| 84 | Yes, I asked you which unit do scientists use to measure the Earth's energy imbalance, | 是的,我问你 哪个单位的科学家使用 测量地球的能量不平衡, |
| 85 | and the answer was watts per square metre, and I didn't know that, Phil. | 答案是瓦特每平方米, 我不知道,菲尔。 |
| 86 | Right, it's time to recap the vocabulary we heard during this programme. | 对,是时候重述一下我们在节目中听到的词汇了。 |
| 87 | A prediction is a statement about what you think will happen in the future. | 一个预言就是关于你认为将来会发生什么的声明. |
| 88 | The adjective conditional means depending on other factors. | 形容词有条件是指取决于其他因素. |
| 89 | You can use the informal expression the thing about to introduce the most important feature | 你可以用非正式的表达方式 来介绍最重要的特征 |
| 90 | or detail of something. | 或细节的东西。 |
| 91 | The phrase out of whack means out of balance and not working properly. | 句子出格意味着平衡失常,工作不当。 |
| 92 | If you're pro-something, you're in favour of it. | 如是拥护者. |
| 93 | And if something is not on the table, it's not an option, it's not available to us. | 如果有东西不在桌子上, 它不是一个选择, 它不能给我们。 |
| 94 | That's the end of this episode of 6 Minute English. | 6分钟英语的这集结束. |
| 95 | Find a worksheet and quiz on our website to test what you've learnt. | 在我们的网站上找到工作表和测验 测试你学到了什么 |
| 96 | We'll be back next week with another episode, so make sure you don't miss it. | 我们下周再来另一集 保证你不会错过 |
| 97 | Bye for now. | 再见 |
| 98 | Bye. | 再见。 |
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