马斯克TED演讲：一个令人无比期待的未来？
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:03 | Elon Musk, great to see you. | 埃隆·穆斯克 很高兴见到你 |
| 0:05 | How are you? | 你好吗? |
| 0:06 | I'm good. | 我没事 |
| 0:06 | How are you? | 你好吗? |
| 0:07 | I mean, we're here at the Texas Gigafactory | 我的意思是,我们在这里 在德克萨斯州吉他公司 |
| 0:10 | the day before this thing opens. | 这玩意打开的前一天 |
| 0:12 | It's been pretty crazy out there. | 外面很疯狂 |
| 0:14 | Thank you so much for making time. | 非常感谢你给我时间 |
| 0:16 | You're welcome. | 不用谢 |
| 0:16 | Busy day. | 忙着日. |
展开字幕全文（1087 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elon Musk, great to see you. | 埃隆·穆斯克 很高兴见到你 |
| 2 | How are you? | 你好吗? |
| 3 | I'm good. | 我没事 |
| 4 | How are you? | 你好吗? |
| 5 | I mean, we're here at the Texas Gigafactory | 我的意思是,我们在这里 在德克萨斯州吉他公司 |
| 6 | the day before this thing opens. | 这玩意打开的前一天 |
| 7 | It's been pretty crazy out there. | 外面很疯狂 |
| 8 | Thank you so much for making time. | 非常感谢你给我时间 |
| 9 | You're welcome. | 不用谢 |
| 10 | Busy day. | 忙着日. |
| 11 | I would love you to help us kind of cast our minds, | 我很想你帮我们打发时间 |
| 12 | I don't know, 10, 20, maybe 30 years into the future, | 我不知道,10,20, 也许30年后, |
| 13 | and help us try to picture | 帮助我们想象 |
| 14 | what it would take to build a future | 未来需要什么? |
| 15 | that's worth getting excited about. | 这值得兴奋 |
| 16 | You've often said, the last time you spoke at 10, | 你经常说 你上次10岁的时候 |
| 17 | you said that was really just a big driver. | 你说那只是个大司机 |
| 18 | You talk about lots of other reasons to do what you're doing, | 你谈论了很多其他的原因 做你在做什么, |
| 19 | but fundamentally you want to think about the future | 但从根本上说,你想考虑未来 |
| 20 | and not think that it sucks. | 不要以为那很烂。 |
| 21 | Yeah, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 22 | I think in general there's a lot of discussion | 我觉得总的来说有很多讨论 |
| 23 | of this problem or that problem, | 这个问题或问题, |
| 24 | and a lot of people are sad about the future | 很多人为未来难过 |
| 25 | and that they're pessimistic. | 他们很悲观 |
| 26 | And I think this is not great. | 我认为这是不伟大的。 |
| 27 | I mean, we really want to wake up in the morning | 我的意思是,我们真的想早上醒来 |
| 28 | and look forward to the future. | 并展望未来。 |
| 29 | We want to be excited about what's going to happen. | 我们想对将要发生的事情感到兴奋. |
| 30 | And life cannot simply be about sort of solving | 生活不能只是解决 |
| 31 | one miserable problem after another. | 一个又一个悲惨的问题。 |
| 32 | So if you look forward 30 years, | 所以,如果你向前看30年, |
| 33 | the year 2050 has been labeled by scientists | 2050年被科学家贴上标签 |
| 34 | as almost like this doomsday deadline on climate. | 和今天的气候末日一样 |
| 35 | There's a consensus of scientists, | 科学家们有共识 |
| 36 | a large consensus of scientists who believe that | 科学家们认为 |
| 37 | if we haven't completely eliminated greenhouse gases | 如果我们还没有完全消除温室气体 |
| 38 | or offset them completely by 2050, | 或到2050年完全抵消, |
| 39 | effectively we're inviting climate catastrophe. | 我们邀请气候灾难。 |
| 40 | Do you believe there is a pathway to avoid that catastrophe, | 难道你们认为有一条路可以避免那场灾难吗? |
| 41 | and what would it look like? | 它看起来像什么? |
| 42 | Yeah, so I am not one of the doomsday people, | 是啊,所以我不是一个 末日的人, |
| 43 | which may surprise... | 这可能会很意外... |
| 44 | I actually think we're on a good path, | 其实我觉得我们走的路不错 |
| 45 | but at the same time I want us to caution against complacency. | 但与此同时,我希望我们告诫不要自满。 |
| 46 | So long as we are not complacent, | 只要我们不自满 |
| 47 | as long as we have a high sense of urgency | 只要我们有高度的紧迫感 |
| 48 | about moving towards a sustainable energy economy, | 走向可持续能源经济, |
| 49 | then I think things will be fine. | 那么我觉得一切都会好起来的 |
| 50 | So I can't emphasize that enough. | 所以我不能强调这一点。 |
| 51 | So long as we push hard and are not complacent, | 只要我们不自满地努力 |
| 52 | the future is going to be great. | 未来将是伟大的。 |
| 53 | Don't worry about it. | 别着急 |
| 54 | I mean, worry about it, but if you worry about it, | 我的意思是,担心它, 但如果你担心它, |
| 55 | ironically it will be a self-unprofiling prophecy. | 具有讽刺意味的是,这将是一个无法描述的预言。 |
| 56 | So there are three elements to a sustainable energy future. | 因此,可持续能源的未来有三个要素。 |
| 57 | One is obviously sustainable energy generation, | 一个显然是可持续能源的产生, |
| 58 | which is primarily wind and solar. | 主要是风和太阳 |
| 59 | There's also hydro, geothermal. | 还有水力,地热. |
| 60 | I'm actually pro-nuclear. | 我其实是亲核的 |
| 61 | I think nuclear is fine. | 我觉得核是好的。 |
| 62 | But it's going to be primarily solar and wind | 但主要是太阳能和风能 |
| 63 | as the primary generators of energy. | 作为能源的主要发电机。 |
| 64 | The second part is you need batteries | 第二部分是需要电池 |
| 65 | to store the solar and wind energy, | 储存太阳能和风能, |
| 66 | because the sun doesn't shine all the time. | 因为太阳不会一直发光 |
| 67 | The wind doesn't blow all the time. | 风不常吹. |
| 68 | So you need a lot of stationary battery packs. | 所以你需要很多固定电池包 |
| 69 | And then you need electric transport. | 然后你需要电动运输。 |
| 70 | So electric cars, electric planes, boats. | 所以电动汽车,电动飞机,船。 |
| 71 | And then ultimately it's not really possible | 最终不可能 |
| 72 | to make electric rockets, | 制造电动火箭, |
| 73 | but you can make the propellant used in rockets | 但你可以制造火箭所用的推进剂 |
| 74 | using sustainable energy. | 利用可持续能源。 |
| 75 | So ultimately we can have a fully sustainable energy economy. | 因此,我们最终可以有一个完全可持续的能源经济。 |
| 76 | And it's those three things. | 且道这三件事. |
| 77 | Solar wind, stationary battery pack, electric vehicles. | 太阳风,固定电池包,电动车辆. |
| 78 | So then what are the limiting factors on progress? | 那么,限制进展的因素是什么? |
| 79 | The limiting factor really will be battery cell production. | 限制因素是电池的生产。 |
| 80 | So that's going to really be the fundamental rate driver. | 所以,这将会是真正的 基本利率驱动器。 |
| 81 | And then whatever the slowest element | 然后无论最慢的元素 |
| 82 | of the whole lithium-ion battery cell supply chain from mining | 来自采矿业的整个锂离子电池电池供应链 |
| 83 | and the many steps of refining | 以及许多精炼步骤 |
| 84 | to ultimately creating a battery cell | 最终创建电池 |
| 85 | and putting it into a pack, | 并把它装进包里, |
| 86 | that will be the limiting factor on progress towards sustainability. | 这将是对可持续性取得进展的限制因素。 |
| 87 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 88 | So we need to talk more about batteries, | 所以我们需要多谈谈电池 |
| 89 | because the key thing that I want to understand, | 因为关键的事情,我想了解, |
| 90 | like there seems to be a scaling issue here | 就像这里似乎有个缩放问题 |
| 91 | that is kind of amazing and alarming. | 这是一种惊人和惊人的。 |
| 92 | You have said that you have calculated | 你说过你计算过 |
| 93 | that the amount of battery production | 电池生产量 |
| 94 | that the world needs for sustainability | 世界需要可持续性 |
| 95 | is 300 terawatt hours of batteries. | 300千兆瓦的电池 |
| 96 | That's the end goal. | 这就是最终目标。 |
| 97 | Very rough numbers. | 非常粗略的数字。 |
| 98 | And I certainly wouldn't invite others to check our calculations, | 我当然不会邀请别人来检查我们的计算结果 |
| 99 | because they may arrive at different conclusions. | 因为他们可能得出不同的结论。 |
| 100 | But in order to transition not just current electricity production, | 但为了转变电流生产 |
| 101 | but also heating and transport, | 还有暖气和运输, |
| 102 | which roughly triples the amount of electricity that you need, | 大约是所需电量的三倍, |
| 103 | it amounts to approximately 300 terawatt hours of installed capacity. | 它的装机容量约为300千兆瓦。 |
| 104 | So we need to give people a sense of how big a task that is. | 因此,我们需要让人们 了解一个多么重大的任务。 |
| 105 | 我的意思是,我们在这里 在Gigafactory。 | |
| 106 | This is one of the biggest buildings in the world. | 这是世界上最大的建筑之一. |
| 107 | What I've read, and tell me if this is still right, | 我读过的东西, 告诉我如果这还是正确的, |
| 108 | is that the goal here is to eventually produce | 目标是最终产生 |
| 109 | 100 gigawatt hours of batteries here a year. | 每年有100千兆瓦的电池 |
| 110 | We're probably doing more than that, | 我们可能做的更多, |
| 111 | but yes, hopefully we get there within a couple of years. | 但是是的,希望我们能在几年内到达那里。 |
| 112 | Right. | 对 |
| 113 | So that is... | 这就是... |
| 114 | 0.1 terawatt hours. | 0.1千瓦时. |
| 115 | But that's still one one-hundredth of what's needed. | 但这还是需要的一百分之一 |
| 116 | How much of the rest of that one-hundred | 剩下的一百块有多少 |
| 117 | is Tesla planning to take on, | 是特斯拉计划承担, |
| 118 | let's say between now and 2030, 2040, | 假设从现在到2030年 2040年 |
| 119 | when we really need to see the scale up happen? | 当我们真的需要看到 扩大规模发生? |
| 120 | I mean, these are just guesses. | 我的意思是,这些只是猜测。 |
| 121 | So please, people shouldn't hold me to these things. | 所以请,人们不应该 抱着我这些东西。 |
| 122 | What does happen is I'll make some best guess, | 发生的事情是,我会做一些最好的猜测, |
| 123 | and then people in five years, | 然后五年后人们, |
| 124 | there'll be some jerk that writes an article, | 会有人写文章 |
| 125 | Elon said this would happen, and it didn't happen. | 伊隆说这会发生,但并没有发生. |
| 126 | He's a liar and a fool. | 他是一个骗子和傻瓜。 |
| 127 | It's very annoying when that happens. | 发生这种事会很烦人的 |
| 128 | So these are just guesses. | 这些只是猜测 |
| 129 | This is a conversation. | 这是谈话。 |
| 130 | I think Tesla probably ends up doing 10% of that, roughly. | 我认为特斯拉可能最终 做了10%,大约。 |
| 131 | Let's say 2050. | 比方说2050年. |
| 132 | We have this amazing 100% sustainable electric grid | 我们有一个惊人的100%可持续电网 |
| 133 | made up of some mixture of the sustainable energy sources you talked about. | 由你所说的可持续能源的混合组成。 |
| 134 | That same grid probably is offering the world really low-cost energy, isn't it, | 同样的电网可能为世界提供 真正的低成本能源,不是吗, |
| 135 | compared with now? | 与现在相比? |
| 136 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 137 | And I'm curious about, like, should people, | 我很好奇,如果人们, |
| 138 | are people entitled to get a little bit excited | 人们有权利兴奋一下 |
| 139 | about the possibilities of that world? | 关于那个世界的可能性? |
| 140 | People should be optimistic about the future. | 人们应该对未来感到乐观。 |
| 141 | The humanity will solve sustainable energy. | 人类将解决可持续能源问题。 |
| 142 | It will happen. | 它会发生的。 |
| 143 | If we are, you know, continue to push hard, | 如果我们是,你知道, 继续用力, |
| 144 | the future is bright and good from an energy standpoint. | 从能量角度看,未来是光明和美好的。 |
| 145 | And then it will be possible to also use that energy | 然后再利用这种能量 |
| 146 | to do carbon sequestration. | 进行碳固存。 |
| 147 | It takes a lot of energy to pull carbon out of the atmosphere | 要从大气中抽出碳 需要大量能量 |
| 148 | because in putting it in the atmosphere, it releases energy. | 因为把它放进大气层 就会释放能量 |
| 149 | So now, obviously, in order to pull it out, you need to use a lot of energy. | 所以,现在,很明显,为了把它拉出来, 你需要使用大量的能量。 |
| 150 | But if you've got a lot of sustainable energy from wind and solar, | 但是如果你从风和太阳得到很多可持续能源 |
| 151 | you can actually sequester carbon, | 你实际上可以固碳, |
| 152 | so you can reverse the CO2 parts per million of the atmosphere and oceans. | 从而可以扭转大气和海洋中百万分之的二氧化碳部分。 |
| 153 | And also, you can really have as much fresh water as you want. | 而且,你也可以有你想要的淡水。 |
| 154 | Earth is mostly water. | 地球多为水. |
| 155 | We should call Earth water. | 我们应该叫地球水 |
| 156 | It's 70% water by surface area. | 按水面面积划分为70%. |
| 157 | Now, most of that's seawater, but it's still, it's like, | 现在,大部分是海水,但它仍然是,它就像, |
| 158 | we just happen to be on the bit that's land. | 我们刚好在陆地上 |
| 159 | Right. | 对 |
| 160 | And with energy, you can turn seawater into irrigating water | 有了能量,就可以把海水变成灌溉水 |
| 161 | or whatever water you need. | 或任何你需要的水。 或任何你需要的水。 |
| 162 | Yes, absolutely. | 是的,当然。 |
| 163 | At very low cost. | 费用非常低 |
| 164 | Things will be good. | 事情会好起来的 |
| 165 | Yes. | 对 |
| 166 | And also, the benefits, right, to this non-fossil fuel world | 还有 这个非化石燃料世界的好处 |
| 167 | where the air is cleaner and... | 那里空气比较干净... |
| 168 | Yes, exactly. | 没错 |
| 169 | Because when you burn fossil fuels, | 因为当你燃烧化石燃料时, |
| 170 | there's all these side reactions and toxic gases of various kinds, | 所有这些副反应和各种有毒气体 |
| 171 | and sort of little particulates that are bad for your lungs. | 和一些对肺有害的小颗粒 |
| 172 | There's all sorts of bad things that are happening that will go away. | 各种坏事都会消失的 |
| 173 | And the sky will be cleaner and quieter. | 则天将清净寂静. |
| 174 | It feels going to be good. | 感觉会很好 |
| 175 | I want us to switch now to think a bit about artificial intelligence. | 我想我们现在换个位置 想想人工智能 |
| 176 | But the segue there, you mentioned how annoying it is | 但那边的缝合,你提到它有多烦人 |
| 177 | when people haul you up for bad predictions in the past. | 当人们为了过去不好的预言 把你拉起来 |
| 178 | So I'm possibly going to be annoying now. | 所以我现在可能会很烦人 |
| 179 | But I'm curious about your timelines and how you predict, | 但我很想知道你的时间表 和你如何预测 |
| 180 | and how come some things are so amazingly on the money and some aren't. | 而为什么有些事情是如此惊人 钱,有些不是。 |
| 181 | So when it comes to predicting sales of Tesla vehicles, for example, | 例如,在预测特斯拉车辆销售额时, |
| 182 | I mean, you've kind of been amazing. | 我的意思是,你已经有点惊人。 |
| 183 | I think in 2014, when Tesla had sold that year 60,000 cars, | 我想在2014年 当特斯拉当年卖了6万辆汽车 |
| 184 | you said, 2020, I think we will do half a million a year. | 你说,2020年,我想我们一年做50万 |
| 185 | We did almost exactly half a million. | 我们做了将近50万。 |
| 186 | You did almost exactly half a million. | 你做了将近50万。 |
| 187 | You were scoffed in 2014 because no one since Henry Ford with the Model T | 你被嘲笑在2014年 因为自从亨利·福特和模特儿T之后 |
| 188 | had come close to that kind of growth rate for cars. | 已经接近汽车的这种增长率。 |
| 189 | You were scoffed, and you actually hit 500,000 cars, | 你被嘲笑了,你撞到了50万辆车, |
| 190 | and 510,000 or whatever produced. | 和51万或任何生产。 |
| 191 | But five years ago, last time you came to TED, | 但五年前 你上次来TED的时候 |
| 192 | I asked you about full self-driving. | 我问你关于自驾车的事 |
| 193 | And you said, yep, this very year, | 你说,是啊,今年, |
| 194 | I'm confident that we will have a car going from L.A. to New York | 我相信我们会有一辆从洛杉矶到纽约的车 |
| 195 | without any intervention. | 没有任何干预。 |
| 196 | Yeah, I don't want to blow your mind, but I'm not always right. | 是啊,我不想吹你的心, 但我并不总是对。 |
| 197 | So what's the difference between those two? | 那两者有什么区别? |
| 198 | Why has full self-driving in particular been so hard to predict? | 为什么完全的自驾车特别难以预测? |
| 199 | I mean, the thing that really got me, | 我的意思是,真正让我得到的东西, |
| 200 | and I think it's going to get a lot of other people, | 我认为这会得到很多其他人, |
| 201 | is that there are just so many false storms with self-driving | 就是有这么多的假风暴 与自驾车 |
| 202 | where you think you've got the problem, have a handle on the problem, | 当你觉得自己有问题的时候 控制一下问题 |
| 203 | and then it turns out you just hit a ceiling. | 结果你撞上了天花板 |
| 204 | And if you were to plot the progress, the progress looks like a log curve. | 如果你要绘制进度, 进度看起来就像一个日志曲线。 |
| 205 | So it's like a series of log curves. | 因此它就像一系列的日志曲线. |
| 206 | So it goes up sort of a fairly straight way, | 因此,它向上排序 一个相当直径, |
| 207 | and then it starts tailing off, | 然后它开始尾随离开, |
| 208 | and you start getting diminishing returns. | 你开始得到越来越少的回报。 |
| 209 | And you're like, oh, it was trending up, | 你就像,哦,这是趋势上升, |
| 210 | and now it's sort of curving over, | 现在它有点曲折, |
| 211 | and you start getting to these what I call local maxima | 你开始得到这些 我称之为本地最大 |
| 212 | where you don't realize basically how dumb you were. | 你根本不知道自己有多蠢 |
| 213 | And then it happens again. | 然后又发生. |
| 214 | And ultimately, in retrospect, they seem obvious, | 归根结底,回顾一下,它们看起来很明显, |
| 215 | but in order to solve full self-driving properly, | 但为了妥善解决自我驾驶问题 |
| 216 | you actually just have to solve real-world AI. | 你只需要解决现实世界的AI |
| 217 | Because you say, what are the road networks designed to work with? | 因为你说,什么是 道路网络设计与工作? |
| 218 | They're designed to work with a biological neural net, our brains, | 他们设计用生物神经网,我们的大脑 |
| 219 | and with vision, our eyes. | 我们的目光 |
| 220 | And so in order to make it work with computers, | 所以为了让电脑工作 |
| 221 | you basically need to solve real-world AI and vision. | 你基本上需要 解决现实世界的AI和视觉。 |
| 222 | Because we need cameras and silicon neural nets | 因为我们需要摄像头和硅神经网 |
| 223 | in order to have self-driving work for a system | 为系统自驾车工作 |
| 224 | that was designed for eyes and biological neural nets. | 这是为眼睛和生物神经网设计的 |
| 225 | I guess when you put it that way, it's sort of quite obvious | 我猜当你这么说的时候 很明显 |
| 226 | that the only way to solve full self-driving | 这是解决自我驾驶问题的唯一办法 |
| 227 | is to solve real-world AI and sophisticated vision. | 解决现实世界的AI和复杂的视觉问题。 |
| 228 | What do you feel about the current architecture? | 你觉得目前的建筑怎么样? |
| 229 | Do you think you have an architecture now | 你以为你现在有建筑吗? |
| 230 | where there is a chance for the logarithmic curve | 在对数曲线有机会的地方 |
| 231 | not to tail off any time soon? | 什么时候都别追了? |
| 232 | Well, I mean, these may be infamous last words, | 我的意思是,这些可能是 臭名昭著的遗言, |
| 233 | but I actually am confident that we will solve it this year, | 但我相信我们今年会解决的 |
| 234 | that we will exceed the probability of an accident. | 我们将超过事故的概率。 |
| 235 | At what point do you exceed that of the average person? | 你什么时候能超过一般人? |
| 236 | I think we will exceed that this year. | 我认为我们今年将超过这个水平。 |
| 237 | What are you seeing behind the scenes that gives you that confidence? | 你在幕后看到什么 让你有信心? |
| 238 | We're almost at the point where we have a high-quality unified vector space. | 我们快到了我们拥有高质量统一矢量空间的地步. |
| 239 | In the beginning, we were trying to do this | 一开始,我们想这么做 |
| 240 | with image recognition on individual images. | 在单个图像上进行图像识别。 |
| 241 | But if you look at one image out of a video, | 但如果你从视频里看到一个图像 |
| 242 | it's actually quite hard to see what's going on with that ambiguity. | 其实很难看清楚 模糊不清是怎么回事 |
| 243 | But if you look at a video segment of a few seconds of video, | 但如果你看到一段几秒钟的视频 |
| 244 | that ambiguity resolves. | 模糊性就解决了 |
| 245 | So the first thing we have to do is tie all eight cameras together | 所以我们首先要做的是 把所有八台摄像机绑在一起 |
| 246 | so they're synchronized. | 所以它们是同步的。 |
| 247 | So all the frames are looked at simultaneously | ┮┮Τ框框常癬 |
| 248 | and labeled simultaneously by one person, | 并同时标注一个人, |
| 249 | because we still need human labeling. | 因为我们仍然需要人类的标签。 |
| 250 | So at least they're not labeled at different times by different people | 所以至少他们不是在不同的时间 被不同的人贴上标签 |
| 251 | in different ways. | 在不同的方面。 |
| 252 | So it's sort of a surround picture. | 所以,它是一种环绕图片。 |
| 253 | Then a very important part is to add the time dimension | 那么一个非常重要的部分就是增加时间维度 |
| 254 | so that you're looking at surround video | 让你看到周围的视频 |
| 255 | and you're labeling surround video. | 你在贴标签 周围的视频。 |
| 256 | And this is actually quite difficult to do from a software standpoint. | 从软件的角度来说,这实际上很难做到。 |
| 257 | We had to write our own labeling tools | 我们不得不自己写标签工具 |
| 258 | and then create an auto-labeling software | 然后创建自动标签软件 |
| 259 | to amplify the efficiency of human labelers, | 提高人类标签的效率, |
| 260 | because it's quite hard to label video. | 因为很难给视频贴标签 |
| 261 | In the beginning, it was taking several hours to label a 10-second video clip. | 一开始,贴上10秒的录像片段需要几个小时。 |
| 262 | This is not scalable. | 这是无法扩展的。 |
| 263 | So basically, what you have to have is you have to have surround video, | 所以基本上,你必须拥有的是 周围的视频, |
| 264 | and that surround video has to be primarily automatically labeled | 环绕的视频必须主要自动标注 |
| 265 | with humans just being editors | 人类只是编辑 |
| 266 | and making slight corrections to the labeling of the video | 对录像的标签稍作修改 |
| 267 | and then feeding back those corrections into the future auto-labeler | 然后把这些修正反馈到未来的自动标签器中 |
| 268 | so you get this flywheel eventually where the auto-labeler | 所以,你得到这个飞轮 最终在那里,自动标签器 |
| 269 | is able to take in vast amounts of video | 能够拍摄大量视频 |
| 270 | and with high accuracy automatically label the video | 并用高精度自动标记视频 |
| 271 | for cars, lane lines, drive space. | 汽车 车道线 驾驶空间 |
| 272 | What you're saying is that the result of this | 你说的是这个结果 |
| 273 | is that you're effectively giving the car a 3D model | 也就是你给这辆车一个3D模型 |
| 274 | of the actual objects that are all around it. | 周围的实际物体。 |
| 275 | It knows what they are, and it knows how fast they are moving. | 它知道它们是什么 它知道它们移动的速度 |
| 276 | And the remaining task is to predict what the quirky behaviors are, | 剩下的任务就是预测 怪异的行为是什么 |
| 277 | that when a pedestrian is walking down the road with a smaller pedestrian, | 当一个行人与一个较小的行人走在路上的时候, |
| 278 | that maybe that smaller pedestrian might do something unpredictable | 也许小的行人 会做一些无法预料的事 |
| 279 | or things like that. | 或者那样的事情 |
| 280 | You have to build into it before you can really call it safe. | 你必须先加固它 然后再称之为安全 |
| 281 | You basically need to have memory across time and space. | 你基本上需要记忆 跨越时间和空间。 |
| 282 | So what I mean by that is the memory can't be infinite | 所以我的意思是 记忆不可能是无限的 |
| 283 | because it's using up a lot of the computer's RAM basically. | 因为它使用了很多计算机的内存。 |
| 284 | So you have to say how much are you going to try to remember. | 所以,你必须说 你要试着记住多少。 |
| 285 | It's very common for things to be occluded. | 以物为常. |
| 286 | So if you talk about say a pedestrian walking past a truck | 所以如果你说行人走过卡车 |
| 287 | where you saw the pedestrian start on one side of the truck, | 在那里你看到行人开始 在卡车的一侧, |
| 288 | then they're occluded by the truck. | 然后他们被卡车包围 |
| 289 | But you would know intuitively, | 但你会直觉地知道 |
| 290 | okay, that pedestrian is going to pop out the other side most likely. | 好吧,那行人 会弹出 另一边最可能。 |
| 291 | The computer doesn't know until it stops. | 电脑直到停机才知道 |
| 292 | A skeptic is going to say that every year for the last five years, | 一个怀疑者会说 在过去五年里,每年, |
| 293 | you've kind of said, well, no, this is the year. | 你说过,好吧,不,这是一年。 |
| 294 | We're confident that we're there in a year or two. | 我们有信心,我们在那里 一两年。 |
| 295 | It's always been about that, that far away. | 一直都是这样,那么远。 |
| 296 | But we've got a new architecture now. | 但我们现在有了一个新的建筑。 |
| 297 | You're seeing enough improvement behind the scenes to make you not certain, | 你看到幕后的改善 让你无法确定 |
| 298 | but pretty confident that by the end of this year, | 但很有信心 到今年底 |
| 299 | what in most, not in every city, in every circumstance, | 在大多数,不是在每个城市, 在每一种情况下, |
| 300 | but in many cities and circumstances, | 但在许多城市和情况下, |
| 301 | basically the car will be able to drive | 车可以开车了 |
| 302 | without interventions safer than a human. | 没有干预 比人类更安全。 |
| 303 | Yes, I mean the car currently drives me around Austin | 是的,我的意思是,现在的车 驱动我在奥斯汀 |
| 304 | most of the time with no interventions. | 大部分时间没有干预。 |
| 305 | So it's not like, and we have over 100,000 people | 因此,它不是像, 我们有超过10万人 |
| 306 | in our full stop driving theater program. | 我们完全停止驾驶 戏剧节目。 |
| 307 | So you can look at the videos that they post online. | 你可以看看他们在网上张贴的视频。 |
| 308 | I do. | 当然 |
| 309 | Okay, great. | 好吧,伟大的。 |
| 310 | Some of them are great and some of them are a little terrifying. | 有些是伟大的,有些是有点恐怖。 |
| 311 | I mean, occasionally the car seems to sort of veer off | 我的意思是,偶尔 车似乎有点 鹿关 |
| 312 | and scare the hell out of people. | 并吓出地狱的人。 |
| 313 | It's a little better. | 有点好 |
| 314 | It's still better. | 还好么. |
| 315 | But behind the scenes, looking at the data, | 但是在幕后 看数据 |
| 316 | you're seeing enough improvement to believe that this year's timeline is real. | 你可以看到足够的改进 相信今年的时间是真实的。 |
| 317 | Yes, that's what it seems like. | 是的,这就是它的样子。 |
| 318 | We could be here talking again in a year, | 我们一年后还会在这里再谈 |
| 319 | and it's like, well, yet another year went by and it didn't happen. | 这就像,嗯,又一年过去了,它没有发生。 |
| 320 | But I think this is the year. | 但我认为今年是这一年。 |
| 321 | And so in general, when people talk about Elon time, | 一般来说,当人们谈论伊隆时间时, |
| 322 | it sounds like you can't just have a general rule | 钮癬ㄓぃ琌Τ贺笵 |
| 323 | that if you predict that something will be done in six months, | 如果你预测六个月后会有所作为 |
| 324 | actually what we should imagine is it's going to be a year | 其实我们应该想象的 是,这将是一年 |
| 325 | or it's like 2X or 3X. | 或者它像2X或3X。 |
| 326 | It depends on the type of prediction. | 这取决于预测的类型. |
| 327 | Some things, I guess things involving software, AI, whatever, | 有些东西,我猜 涉及软件,AI,随便, |
| 328 | are fundamentally harder to predict than others. | 比其他人更难预测 |
| 329 | Is there an element that you actually deliberately make | 你是否真的故意制造出一个元素 |
| 330 | aggressive prediction timelines to drive people to be ambitious? | 大胆的预测时间 促使人们有野心? |
| 331 | Without that, nothing gets done. | 没有它,什么都做不了。 |
| 332 | Well, I generally believe in terms of internal timelines | 嗯,我一般认为 内部的时限 |
| 333 | that we want to set the most aggressive timeline that we can | 我们想要设定最积极的时间 |
| 334 | because there's sort of like a law of gas expansion for schedules | 因为有类似气体膨胀法 对于时间表 |
| 335 | where whatever time you set, it's not going to be less than that. | 不管时间多长 也不会比这少 |
| 336 | It's very rare that it will be less than that. | 极难得会少于此. |
| 337 | And as far as my predictions are concerned, | 至于我的预测 |
| 338 | what tends to happen in media is that they will report all the wrong ones | 媒体往往会报道所有错误的 |
| 339 | and ignore all the right ones. | 并无视所有正确的。 |
| 340 | When writing an article about me, | 写我的文章时 |
| 341 | I've had a long career in multiple industries. | 长期从事多种行业. |
| 342 | If you list my sins, I sound like the worst person on earth. | 如果你列出我的罪孽, 我听起来像世界上最糟糕的人。 |
| 343 | But if you put those against the things I've done right, | 但如果你把那些 与我所做的正确的事情, |
| 344 | it makes much more sense. | 这更有意义。 |
| 345 | So essentially, the longer you do anything, | 所以基本上,你做任何事情的时间越长, |
| 346 | the more mistakes that you will make cumulatively, | 你累计犯的错越多 |
| 347 | which if you sum up those mistakes, | 如果你总结这些错误, |
| 348 | will sound like I'm the worst predictor ever. | 听起来我是最坏的预测者 |
| 349 | But for example, for Tesla vehicle growth, | 但是,例如,对于特斯拉车辆的增长, |
| 350 | I said I think we'll do 50% and we've done 80%. | 我说,我认为我们会做50%,我们已经做了80%。 |
| 351 | But they don't mention that one. | 但他们没提到那个 |
| 352 | So I mean, I'm not sure what my exact track record is on predictions. | 所以,我的意思是,我不知道 我的确切记录是预测。 |
| 353 | They're more optimistic than pessimistic, | 他们更乐观 比悲观, |
| 354 | but they're not all optimistic. | 但他们并不都乐观 |
| 355 | Some of them are exceeded probably more or later. | 其中有些可能或多或少会超过。 |
| 356 | But they do come true. | 但它们确实实现了。 |
| 357 | It's very rare that they do not come true. | 难得其成. |
| 358 | It's sort of like if there's some radical technology prediction, | 就像有些激进的技术预测 |
| 359 | the point is not that it was a few years late, | 关键不是它已经晚了几年, |
| 360 | but that it happened at all. | 但事情发生了 |
| 361 | That's the more important part. | 这是更重要的部分。 |
| 362 | So it feels like at some point in the last year, | 因此,感觉像在过去一年的某个时候, |
| 363 | seeing the progress on understanding the Tesla AI, | 在了解Tesla AI方面取得了进展, |
| 364 | understanding the world around it, | 了解周围的世界, |
| 365 | led to a kind of an aha moment in Tesla. | 导致在特斯拉的片刻 |
| 366 | Because you really surprised people recently when you said | 因为你最近真的很惊讶 你说 |
| 367 | probably the most important product development going on at Tesla this year | 可能是今年特斯拉最重要的产品开发 |
| 368 | is this robot, Optimus. | 是这个机器人 擎天柱 |
| 369 | Many companies out there have tried to put out these robots. | 外面的很多公司都试图消灭这些机器人. |
| 370 | They've been working on them for years. | 他们已经做了好几年了 |
| 371 | And so far, no one has really cracked it. | 目前为止,还没有人真正破解它。 |
| 372 | There's no mass adoption robot in people's homes. | 民众家中没有大规模收养机器人. |
| 373 | There are some in manufacturing. | 有一些在制造业。 |
| 374 | But I would say no one's really cracked it. | 但我会说,没有人真的破解它。 |
| 375 | Is it something that happened in the development of full self-driving | 是在开发完全自驾车的过程中发生的吗? |
| 376 | that gave you the confidence to say, | 这让你有信心说, |
| 377 | you know what, we could do something special here? | 我们可以在这里做点特别的事吗? |
| 378 | Yeah, exactly. | 没错 |
| 379 | So it took me a while to sort of realize that in order to solve self-driving, | 所以我花了一段时间才意识到 为了解决自我驾驶问题 |
| 380 | you really needed to solve real-world AI. | 你真的需要解决现实世界的AI。 |
| 381 | And at the point at which you solve real-world AI for a car, | 当你为一辆汽车解决现实世界的AI时 |
| 382 | which is really a robot on four wheels, | 这真的是一个机器人 四轮, |
| 383 | you can then generalize that to a robot on legs as well. | 你也可以把它概括给一个腿上的机器人 |
| 384 | The two hard parts, I think, | 两个难的部分,我想, |
| 385 | obviously companies like Boston Dynamics have shown that it's possible to make | 很明显,像波士顿动力公司这样的公司 已经表明,这是可能的 |
| 386 | quite compelling, sometimes alarming robots. | 相当有说服力,有时令人吃惊的机器人。 |
| 387 | Right. | 对 |
| 388 | So from a sensors and actuators standpoint, | 所以从传感器和引爆器的角度 |
| 389 | it's certainly been demonstrated by many that it's possible to make a humanoid robot. | 许多人肯定都证明 制造人造机器人是可能的 |
| 390 | The things that are currently missing are enough intelligence | 目前缺失的东西 足够智能 |
| 391 | for the robot to navigate the real world and do useful things | 机器人在真实世界中航行 做有用的事情 |
| 392 | without being explicitly instructed. | 没有明确的指示。 |
| 393 | So the missing things are basically real-world intelligence | 所以,缺失的东西基本上是真实世界的智能 |
| 394 | and scaling up manufacturing. | 扩大制造业。 |
| 395 | Those are two things that Tesla is very good at. | 特斯拉很擅长这两件事 |
| 396 | So then we basically just need to design the specialized actuators and sensors | 所以我们基本上只需要设计 专用的助推器和传感器 |
| 397 | that are needed for a humanoid robot. | 是人造机器人所需要的 |
| 398 | People have no idea. | 人们不知道。 |
| 399 | This is going to be bigger than the car. | 这比车子还大 |
| 400 | So let's dig into exactly that. | 所以,让我们仔细研究一下。 |
| 401 | I mean, in one way, it's actually an easier problem than full self-driving, | 我的意思是,从某种意义上说, 它实际上是一个更容易的问题 比完全的自我驾驶, |
| 402 | because instead of an object going along at 60 miles an hour, | 因为不是一个每小时60英里的物体 |
| 403 | which if it gets it wrong, someone will die, | 如果弄错了,有人会死 |
| 404 | this is an object that's engineered to only go three or four or five miles an hour. | 这个物体设计时速只有三、四、五英里 |
| 405 | Yeah, walking speed, basically. | 是啊,步行速度,基本上。 |
| 406 | And so a mistake, there aren't lives at stake. | 所以,一个错误, 没有生命危险。 |
| 407 | There might be embarrassment at stake. | 可能会有尴尬的危险。 |
| 408 | As long as the AI doesn't take it over and... | 只要人工智能不接手... |
| 409 | Right. | 对 |
| 410 | And put us in our sleep or something. | 并让我们进入我们的睡眠什么的。 |
| 411 | Right. | 对 |
| 412 | But talk about... | 但说说... |
| 413 | I mean, I think the first applications you've mentioned | 我的意思是,我认为 第一个应用你提到 |
| 414 | are probably going to be manufacturing, | 可能会是制造, |
| 415 | but eventually the vision is to have these available for people at home, correct? | 但最终的愿景是 在家里为人们提供,对不对? |
| 416 | Yes. | 对 |
| 417 | If you had a robot that really understood the 3D architecture of your house | 如果你有一个真正理解你家三维建筑的机器人 |
| 418 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}知道那房子里的每个物体 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}是的 | |
| 419 | and could recognize all those objects, | 可以认出所有这些物体, |
| 420 | that's kind of amazing, isn't it? | 这有点惊人,不是吗? |
| 421 | The kind of thing that you could ask a robot to do would be what? | 你能要求机器人做的是什麽? |
| 422 | Like, tidy up. | 像,收拾干净。 |
| 423 | Yeah, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 424 | Or... | 还是... |
| 425 | Make dinner, I guess, mow the lawn. | 做晚饭,我想,割草坪。 |
| 426 | Take a cup of tea to grandma and show her family pictures. | 喝杯茶给奶奶看看她家人的照片. |
| 427 | Exactly, take care of my grandmother and make sure... Yeah, exactly. | 没错 照顾好我奶奶 确保... 没错 |
| 428 | And it could recognize, obviously recognize everyone in the home. | 它可以识别,显然 承认每个人在家里。 |
| 429 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 430 | Could play catch with your kids. | 可以跟你的孩子玩接球游戏 |
| 431 | Yes. | 对 |
| 432 | I mean, obviously we need to be careful that this doesn't become a dystopian situation. | 我的意思是,很明显,我们需要小心 这不会变成一个阻塞的局面。 |
| 433 | Like, I think one of the things that's going to be important | 我觉得其中一件很重要的事 |
| 434 | is to have a localized ROM chip on the robot that cannot be updated over the air, | 机器人上有一个无法在空中更新的 ROM 芯片, |
| 435 | where if you, for example, were to say, stop, stop, stop, that would... | 比如说,如果你说,停止,停止,停止,那会... |
| 436 | If anyone said that, then the robot would stop, you know, type of thing. | 如果有人这么说,那么机器人就会停止,你知道的,类型。 |
| 437 | And that's not updatable remotely. | 这可不能远程提升。 |
| 438 | I think it's going to be important to have safety features like that. | 我认为拥有这样的安全特性很重要. |
| 439 | Yeah, that sounds wise. | 是啊,这听起来很明智。 |
| 440 | And I do think there should be a regulatory agency for AI. | 我觉得应该有AI的管理机构 |
| 441 | I've said this for many years. | 我已经说了好多年了 |
| 442 | I don't love being regulated, but I, you know, | 我不喜欢被监管, 但我,你知道, |
| 443 | I think this is an important thing for public safety. | 我觉得这对公共安全很重要 |
| 444 | 复说 that言. | |
| 445 | But I'm just... | 不过... |
| 446 | I don't think many people have really sort of taken seriously | 很多人都不太认真 |
| 447 | the notion of, you know, a robot at home. | 在家里有个机器人的概念 |
| 448 | I mean, at the start of the computing revolution, you know, Bill Gates said, | 我的意思是,在计算革命的开始, 你知道,比尔盖茨说, |
| 449 | there's going to be a computer in every home. | 每个家庭都会有一台电脑 |
| 450 | And people at the time said, yeah, whatever. | 当时人们说,是的,随便 |
| 451 | Who would even want that? | 谁会想这样? |
| 452 | Never have a computer in our pocket. | 我们口袋里从来没有电脑 |
| 453 | Do you think there will be, basically, like, say 2050 or whatever, | 你认为,基本上, 说2050年或什么的, |
| 454 | that a robot in most homes is what there will be? | 大部分家庭中的机器人会是什么? |
| 455 | Yeah, I think there probably will. | 是啊,我想也许会有。 |
| 456 | And people will love them and count on them? | 人们会爱他们并依靠他们? |
| 457 | You'll have your own butler, basically? | 你将拥有自己的管家,基本上? |
| 458 | Yeah, you'll have your sort of buddy robot, probably, yeah. | 是啊,你会有你的那种伙伴机器人, 可能,是的。 |
| 459 | I mean, how much of a buddy? | 我的意思是,多少一个朋友? |
| 460 | How many applications do you thought? | 你认为有多少申请? |
| 461 | Can you have a romantic partner, a sex partner? | 你能有一个浪漫的伴侣, 一个性伴侣? |
| 462 | I mean, it's probably inevitable. | 我的意思是,这可能是不可避免的。 |
| 463 | I mean, I did promise the internet that I'd make cat girls. | 我的意思是,我确实承诺 互联网,我会让猫女孩。 |
| 464 | We could make a robot cat girl. | 我们可以做个机器人猫女 |
| 465 | Be careful what you promise the internet. | 小心你承诺的互联网。 |
| 466 | So, yeah, I guess it'll be whatever people want, really, you know? | 所以,是的,我想这将是任何人们想要的,真的,你知道吗? |
| 467 | What sort of timeline should we be thinking about | 我们该考虑什么样的时间 |
| 468 | of the first models that are actually made and sold? | 最早的型号 实际制造和销售? |
| 469 | Well, you know, the first units that we intend to make | 嗯,你知道,我们打算做的第一批单位 |
| 470 | are for jobs that are dangerous, boring, repetitive, | 用于危险 无聊 重复的工作 |
| 471 | and things that people don't want to do. | 以及人们不想做的事 |
| 472 | And, you know, I think we'll have, like, an interesting prototype | 而且,你知道,我想我们会, 像,一个有趣的原型 |
| 473 | sometime this year. | 今年某个时候 |
| 474 | We might have something useful next year, | 我们明年可能有有用的东西 |
| 475 | but I think quite likely within at least two years. | 但我认为很可能在至少两年之内 |
| 476 | And then we'll see rapid growth year over year | 然后我们就会看到年复一年的快速增长 |
| 477 | of the usefulness of the human hydro robots | 人类水力机器人的作用 |
| 478 | and decrease in cost and scaling up production. | 降低成本和扩大生产。 |
| 479 | Initially, just selling to businesses? | 一开始,只是卖给企业? |
| 480 | Or when do you picture yourself, you'll start selling them | 或者当你想象自己,你会开始卖掉它们 |
| 481 | in a way you can buy your parents one for Christmas or something? | 某种方式,你可以买 你的父母一个圣诞节什么的? |
| 482 | I'd say less than ten years. | 我估计不到十年了 |
| 483 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 484 | Help me on the economics of this. | 帮我搞点经济学 |
| 485 | What do you picture the cost of one of these being? | 你觉得其中之一的成本是多少? |
| 486 | Well, I think the cost is actually not going to be crazy high. | 我觉得代价不会太高 |
| 487 | Like, less than a car. | 比车还少 |
| 488 | Initially, things will be expensive | 一开始,事情会很贵的 |
| 489 | because it'll be new technology at low production volume. | 因为它将是新技术 在低产量。 |
| 490 | The complexity and cost of a car | 车辆的复杂性和成本 |
| 491 | is greater than that of a humanoid robot. | 比人造机器人还大 |
| 492 | So I would expect that it's going to be less than a car | 所以我想它会比车少 |
| 493 | or at least equivalent to a cheap car. | 或至少相当于廉价车。 |
| 494 | So even if it starts at 50K, | 所以即使从5万开始 |
| 495 | within a few years it's down to 20K or lower or whatever. | 在几年内,它下降到20K或更低或什么的。 |
| 496 | And maybe for home they'll get much cheaper still. | 也许他们回家会更便宜 |
| 497 | But think about the economics of this. | 但想想这个经济学 |
| 498 | If you can replace a $30,000, $40,000 a year worker, | 如果你能替换一个每年3万,4万元的工人, |
| 499 | which you have to pay every year, | 你每年必须支付, |
| 500 | with a one-time payment of $25,000 for a robot | 一次性支付机器人25 000美元 |
| 501 | that can work longer hours, | 可以工作更长的时间, |
| 502 | a pretty rapid replacement of certain types of jobs, | 相当快速的替换 某些类型的工作, |
| 503 | how worried should the world be about that? | 世界应该对此有多担心? |
| 504 | I wouldn't worry about the sort of putting people out of a job thing. | 我不会担心 那种把人 工作的事情。 |
| 505 | I think we're actually going to have | 我想我们真的会 |
| 506 | and already do have a massive shortage of labor. | 并且已经非常缺乏劳动力。 |
| 507 | So I think we will have not people out of work | 所以,我想我们不会有人失业 |
| 508 | but actually still a shortage of labor even in the future. | 但实际上,即使在将来,劳动力仍然短缺。 |
| 509 | But this really will be a world of abundance. | 但是,这确实将是一个丰盛的世界。 |
| 510 | Any goods and services will be available to anyone who wants them. | 任何物品和服务都会提供给任何想要这些物品和服务的人。 |
| 511 | It'll be so cheap to have goods and services it'll be ridiculous. | 拥有商品和服务会很便宜,这太荒谬了. |
| 512 | And presumably it should be possible to imagine | 假设应该可以想象 |
| 513 | a bunch of goods and services that can't profitably be made now | 一堆现在不能赚钱的商品和服务 |
| 514 | but could be made in that world courtesy of legions of robots. | 但在这个世界上,机器人军团的礼遇是存在的。 |
| 515 | Yeah, it will be a world of abundance. | 是啊,这将是一个充满财富的世界。 |
| 516 | The only scarcity that will exist in the future | 未来唯一存在的匮乏 |
| 517 | is that which we decide to create ourselves as humans. | 我们决定把自己变成人类 |
| 518 | Okay, so AI is allowing us to imagine | 好吧,所以AI是允许我们想象 |
| 519 | a differently powered economy that will create this abundance. | 一种不同的动力经济 将创造这种丰盛。 |
| 520 | What are you most worried about going wrong? | 你最担心的是什么? |
| 521 | Well, like I said, AI and robotics will bring out | 就像我说的 人工智能和机器人会带出来 |
| 522 | what might be termed the age of abundance. | 所谓丰盛的年代, |
| 523 | Other people have used this word. | 别人也用过这个词 |
| 524 | And this is my prediction. | 这是我的预测。 |
| 525 | It will be an age of abundance for everyone. | 这对每个人都是丰盛的时代。 |
| 526 | I guess the dangers would be the artificial general intelligence | 我猜危险是人工一般情报 |
| 527 | or digital super intelligence decouples from a collective human will | 或数码超级智能 与人类的集体意志脱钩 |
| 528 | and goes in a direction that for some reason we don't like | 朝着我们不喜欢的方向走 |
| 529 | of whatever direction it might go. | 无论它可能走向什么方向。 |
| 530 | 这就是Neuralink背后的想法 | |
| 531 | is to try to more tightly couple collective human will | 试图更紧密地结合人类的集体意志 |
| 532 | to digital super intelligence. | 到数字超级智能。 |
| 533 | And also along the way solve a lot of brain injuries | 也解决了很多脑部损伤 |
| 534 | and spinal injuries and that kind of thing. | 脊椎受伤之类的 |
| 535 | So even if it doesn't succeed in the greater goal, | 因此,即使它没有成功 在更大的目标, |
| 536 | I think it will succeed in the goal of alleviating brain and spine damage. | 我认为它将成功地实现减轻脑和脊椎损伤的目标。 |
| 537 | So the spirit there is that if we're going to make these AIs | 所以精神是 如果我们要做这些AI |
| 538 | that are so vastly intelligent, we ought to be wired directly to them | 这么聪明,我们应该直接被窃听 |
| 539 | so that we ourselves can have those super powers more directly. | 这样我们就能更直接地拥有这些超级大国。 |
| 540 | But that doesn't seem to avoid the risk that those super powers | 但是这似乎无法避免那些超级大国的风险 |
| 541 | might turn ugly in an unintended way. | 可能变成丑陋 无意中。 |
| 542 | No, I think it's a risk. | 不,我认为这是一个风险。 |
| 543 | I agree. | и種 |
| 544 | I'm not saying that I have a certain answer to that risk. | 我不是说我有办法应对这种风险 |
| 545 | I'm just saying maybe one of the things that would be good | 我只是说,也许其中之一 会是好的 |
| 546 | for ensuring that the future is one that we want | 确保未来是我们希望的未来 |
| 547 | is to more tightly couple collective human will to digital intelligence. | 更紧密地结合人类对数字智能的集体意志。 |
| 548 | The issue that we face here is that we're already a cyborg, | 我们面对的问题是 我们已经是一个机器人, |
| 549 | if you think about it. | 如果你考虑一下 |
| 550 | The computers are an extension of ourselves. | 电脑是我们自己的延伸 |
| 551 | And when we die, we have a digital ghost, | 当我们死了,我们有一个数字鬼, |
| 552 | all of our text messages and social media, emails. | 我们所有的短信 社交媒体 电子邮件 |
| 553 | It's quite eerie, actually, when someone dies, | 实际上,当有人死的时候,这很紧张 |
| 554 | but everything online is still there. | 但网上的一切都还在 |
| 555 | But you say, what's the limitation? | 但你说,有什么限制? |
| 556 | What is it that inhibits human machine symbiosis? | 何谓抑制人机共生? |
| 557 | It's the data rate. | 是数据率 |
| 558 | When you communicate, especially with a phone, | 当你交流,尤其是用电话, |
| 559 | you're moving your thumbs very slowly. | 你的拇指移动得很慢 |
| 560 | So you're moving your two little meat sticks at a rate | 所以,你移动你的两个小肉棒 以速度 |
| 561 | that's maybe 10 bits per second, optimistically 100 bits per second. | 也许每秒10位,乐观地说每秒100位。 |
| 562 | And computers are communicating at the gigabit level and beyond. | 计算机在千兆塔及更远的层面上进行交流。 |
| 563 | Have you seen evidence that the technology is actually working, | 你有没有看到有证据表明 技术是有效的, |
| 564 | that you've got a richer, higher bandwidth connection, if you like, | 如果你愿意的话,你有一个更丰富、更高的带宽连接。 |
| 565 | between external electronics and a brain than has been possible before? | 外部电子和大脑之间 比以前可能发生的事情? |
| 566 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 567 | I mean, the fundamental principles of reading neurons, | 我的意思是,阅读神经元的基本原则, |
| 568 | sort of doing read-write on neurons with tiny electrodes, | 在神经元上用微小电极读写, |
| 569 | have been demonstrated for decades. | 已经证明几十年了。 |
| 570 | So it's not like the concept is new. | 所以这个概念并不是新的. |
| 571 | The problem is that there's no product that works well | 问题是没有产品能有效 |
| 572 | that you can go and buy. | 你可以去买。 |
| 573 | So it's all sort of in research labs. | 所以这都是在研究实验室里。 |
| 574 | There's always some cord sticking out of your head, | 你脑子里总会有绳子 |
| 575 | and it's quite gruesome, and it's really... | 这很可怕,真的... |
| 576 | There's no good product that actually does a good job | 没有好产品能做得很好 |
| 577 | and is high bandwidth and safe, | 且带宽而安全, |
| 578 | and something that you could buy and would want to buy. | 和一些你可以买 并且想买的东西。 |
| 579 | 因此,如何思考 Neuralink 设备 | |
| 580 | is kind of like a Fitbit or an Apple Watch | 有点像Fitbit或苹果观察 |
| 581 | where we take out a small section of skull about the size of a quarter, | 在那里,我们取出一小块 大约四分之一的颅骨, |
| 582 | replace that with what in many ways really is very much like | 换成在许多方面 真正的非常像 |
| 583 | a Fitbit Apple Watch or some kind of smartwatch thing. | 一个Fitbit苹果观察或某种智能观察的东西。 |
| 584 | But with tiny wires, very, very tiny wires, | 但用很小的电线,非常,非常小的电线, |
| 585 | wires so tiny it's hard to even see them. | 电线太小了 甚至很难看到它们。 |
| 586 | And it's very important to have very tiny wires | 拥有极小的电线很重要 |
| 587 | so that when they're implanted they don't damage the brain. | 这样,当它们被植入时 它们不会伤害大脑。 |
| 588 | How far are you from putting these into humans? | 你离把这些放到人类身上还有多远? |
| 589 | Well, we have put in our FDA application | 我们把FDA的应用放进去了 |
| 590 | to have the aspirationally do the first human implant this year. | 今年首次进行人工植入 |
| 591 | The first uses will be for neurological injuries of different kinds, | 第一个用途是不同种类的神经损伤 |
| 592 | but rolling the clock forward | 但将时钟向前滚动 |
| 593 | and imagining when people are actually using these | 并想象当人们实际使用这些 |
| 594 | for their own enhancement, let's say, | 比如说,为了增强他们的实力 |
| 595 | and for the enhancement of the world, | 和加强世界, |
| 596 | how clear are you in your mind as to what it will feel like | 你脑子里有多清楚 是什么感觉 |
| 597 | to have one of these inside your head? | 你脑子里有这个吗? |
| 598 | Well, I do want to emphasize we're at an early stage, | 好吧,我确实想强调 我们处于一个早期, |
| 599 | and so it really will be many years before we have anything | 所以这真的会是很多年 我们有什么 |
| 600 | approximating a high bandwidth neural interface | 近似高带宽神经接口 |
| 601 | that allows for AI human symbiosis. | 允许人工智能人类共生。 |
| 602 | For many years we will just be solving brain injuries | 多年来我们只是解决脑损伤 |
| 603 | and spinal injuries for probably a decade. | 和脊髓损伤 大概十年。 |
| 604 | This is not something that will suddenly, | 这不是会突然发生的事情 |
| 605 | one day it will have this incredible sort of whole brain interface. | 总有一天它会有一个不可思议的大脑界面。 |
| 606 | It's going to be, like I said, at least a decade | 就像我说的 至少要十年 |
| 607 | of really just solving brain injuries and spinal injuries. | 解决脑损伤和脊椎损伤 |
| 608 | And really I think you can solve a very wide range of brain injuries, | 我真的觉得你可以解决 一系列非常广泛的脑损伤, |
| 609 | including severe depression, morbid obesity, sleep, potentially schizophrenia, | 包括严重抑郁症、肥胖症、睡眠、潜在的精神分裂症, |
| 610 | like a lot of things that cause great stress to people, | 像很多东西 给人带来很大压力, |
| 611 | restoring memory in older people. | 恢复老年人的记忆。 |
| 612 | If you can pull that off, that's the app I will sign up for. | 如果你能成功,这就是我报名的应用程序。 |
| 613 | Please hurry, actually. | 请快点,实际上。 |
| 614 | I mean, the emails that we get at Neuralink are heartbreaking. | 我们从Neuralink收到的邮件让人心碎 |
| 615 | They'll send us just tragic, where someone was sort of in the prime of life | 他们会把我们送去一个悲惨的地方 在那里有人在大年期 |
| 616 | and they had an accident on a motorcycle | 他们骑摩托车出了意外 |
| 617 | and someone who's 25 can't even feed themselves. | 25岁的人甚至不能养活自己 |
| 618 | And this is something we could fix. | 这是我们可以解决的 |
| 619 | But you have said that AI is one of the things you're most worried about | 但你说过AI是你最担心的 |
| 620 | and that Neuralink may be one of the ways where we can keep abreast of it. | 而Neuralink 可能是我们能跟上的方法之一 |
| 621 | Yes, the short-term thing, which I think is helpful on an individual human level | 是的,短期的,我认为 帮助个人层面 |
| 622 | with injuries, and then the long-term thing is an attempt to address | 和伤害, 然后长期的事情 是试图解决 |
| 623 | the civilizational risk of AI by bringing digital intelligence | 通过带来数字智能 AI的文明风险 |
| 624 | and biological intelligence closer together. | 和生物情报更紧密地联系在一起。 |
| 625 | I mean, if you think of how the brain works today, | 我的意思是,如果你想到 大脑如何工作今天, |
| 626 | there are really kind of two layers to the brain. | 大脑有两层 |
| 627 | There's the limbic system and the cortex. | 有四肢系统及皮层. |
| 628 | You've got the kind of anal brain, which is kind of like the fun part, really. | 你有那种肛门大脑, 这有点像有趣的部分,真的。 |
| 629 | That's where most of Twitter operates, by the way. | 顺便说一句,大多数Twitter都在这里运作. |
| 630 | Yeah, I mean, I think like Tim Oven said this, | 是啊,我的意思是,我认为 像蒂姆奥文说, |
| 631 | we're like somebody stuck a computer on a monkey. | 我们就像有人把电脑卡在猴子身上 |
| 632 | So we're like, if you gave a monkey a computer, that's our cortex. | 所以我们喜欢,如果你给猴子一台电脑, 这就是我们的皮层。 |
| 633 | But we still have a lot of monkey instincts. | 但我们仍然有很多猴子的本能. |
| 634 | So we should then try to rationalize this. | 因此,我们应该努力使这一点合理化。 |
| 635 | No, it's not a monkey instinct. | 不 这不是猴子的本能 |
| 636 | It's something more important than that. | 其事更显. |
| 637 | But it's often just really a monkey instinct. | 但它常常只是真正的猴子本能。 |
| 638 | We're just monkeys with a computer stuck in our brain. | 我们只是用电脑卡住大脑的猴子 |
| 639 | So even though the cortex is sort of the smart or the intelligent part of the brain, | 所以尽管皮层是大脑的智能或智能部分, |
| 640 | the thinking part of the brain, people are quite... | 大脑的思维部分, 人们相当... |
| 641 | I've not yet met anyone who wants to delete their limbic system or their cortex. | 我还没有见过任何人 谁想删除 他们的四肢系统 或皮层。 |
| 642 | They're quite happy having both. | 他们都很开心 |
| 643 | Everyone wants both parts of their brain. | 每个人都想要大脑的两部分 |
| 644 | And people really want their phones and their computers, | 人们真的想要他们的手机和电脑, |
| 645 | which are really the tertiary, the third part of your intelligence. | 这才是你智力的第三部分 |
| 646 | It's just that it's like the bandwidth, | 只是它就像带宽, |
| 647 | the rate of communication with that tertiary layer is slow. | 与第三层的通信速度缓慢。 |
| 648 | And it's just a very tiny straw to this tertiary layer. | 它只是一个非常小的稻草 到这个第三层。 |
| 649 | And we want to make that tiny straw a big highway. | 我们想让那个小稻草成为一条大公路。 |
| 650 | And I'm definitely not saying that this is going to solve everything or... | 我绝对不会说这能解决一切 |
| 651 | It's something that might be helpful. | 这或许有帮助 |
| 652 | And worst-case scenario, I think we solve some important brain injury, spinal injury issues. | 最坏的情况是,我认为我们解决了一些重要的脑损伤,脊髓损伤问题。 |
| 653 | And that's still a great outcome. | 这仍然是个伟大的结果。 |
| 654 | Right. | 对 |
| 655 | Best-case scenario, we may discover a new human possibility, | 最好的情况,我们可能发现新的人类可能性, |
| 656 | telepathy you've spoken of in a way, a connection with a loved one, | 你说过的心灵感应 和爱人的关系 |
| 657 | full memory, and a much faster thought process, maybe. | 和更快的思考过程,也许。 |
| 658 | All these things. | 所有这些事情。 |
| 659 | It's very cool. | 这很酷。 |
| 660 | If AI were to take down Earth, we need a plan B. | 如果AI要摧毁地球 我们需要一个B计划 |
| 661 | Let's shift our attention to space. | 把注意力转移到太空上 |
| 662 | We spoke last time about reusability, | 上次我们谈到复用性 |
| 663 | and you had just demonstrated that spectacularly for the first time. | 你刚刚第一次以壮观的方式证明了这一点 |
| 664 | Since then, you've gone on to build this monster rocket, Starship, | 从那时起,你开始造这艘怪物火箭星舰, |
| 665 | which kind of changes the rules of the game in spectacular ways. | 什么样的改变 游戏的规则以壮观的方式。 |
| 666 | Tell us about Starship. | 告诉我们星舰的事 |
| 667 | Yes. | 对 |
| 668 | Starship is extremely fundamental. | 星舰是极重要的 |
| 669 | So the holy grail of rocketry or space transport is full and rapid reusability. | 因此火箭或太空运输的圣杯是完全和快速的复用性. |
| 670 | This has never been achieved. | 这从未实现。 |
| 671 | The closest that anything's come is our Falcon 9 rocket, | 最接近的东西是猎鹰9号火箭 |
| 672 | where we are able to recover the first stage, the boost stage, | 在那里,我们能够恢复 第一阶段,助推阶段, |
| 673 | which is probably about 60% of the cost of the vehicle of the whole launch. | 这大概是整个发射运载火箭成本的60%。 |
| 674 | Maybe 70%. | 也许70%。 |
| 675 | And we've now done that over 100 times. | 我们已经做了100多次了。 |
| 676 | So with Starship, we will be recovering the entire thing. | 因此,与星舰, 我们将恢复整个事情。 |
| 677 | At least that's the goal. | 至少这就是目标 |
| 678 | And moreover, recovering it in such a way that it can be immediately refloat. | 而且,以这样的方式回收它, 以便它能够立即重浮。 |
| 679 | Whereas with Falcon 9, we still need to do some amount of refurbishment | 和猎鹰9,我们还需要做一些翻新 |
| 680 | to the booster and to the fairy nose cone. | 对助推器和仙女鼻子锥。 |
| 681 | But with Starship, the design goal is immediate reflight. | 但与星舰一起,设计目标是立即重新飞行. |
| 682 | So you just refill propellants and go again. | 所以,你只是重新填充推进剂 并再次去。 |
| 683 | And this is gigantic, just as it would be in any other mode of transport. | 这是巨大的, 就像它在任何其他运输方式。 |
| 684 | And the main design is to basically take 100 plus people at a time, | 主要设计是一次带100多人 |
| 685 | plus a bunch of things that they need, to Mars. | 再加上一帮他们需要的东西,去火星。 |
| 686 | So first of all, talk about that piece. | 所以,首先,谈谈那个作品。 |
| 687 | What is your latest timeline? | 你最新的时间安排是什么? |
| 688 | One, for the first time a Starship goes to Mars, presumably without people, | 第一,星舰第一次去火星 大概没有人 |
| 689 | but just equipment. | 但只是设备。 |
| 690 | Two, with people. | 二与众生. |
| 691 | Three, the sort of, okay, 100 people at a time, let's go. | 三,那种,好的,一次100人,我们走吧。 |
| 692 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 693 | And just to put the cost thing into perspective, | 为了把成本问题看清楚 |
| 694 | the expected cost of Starship putting 100 tons into orbit | Starship将100吨投入轨道的预期费用 |
| 695 | is significantly less than what it did cost to put our tiny Falcon 1 rocket into orbit. | 远低于将小猎鹰一号火箭送入轨道的成本 |
| 696 | Just as the cost of flying a 747 around the world | 就像飞到世界各地的代价一样 |
| 697 | is less than the cost of a small airplane that was thrown away. | 低于被丢弃的小飞机的成本 |
| 698 | So it's really pretty mind boggling that the giant thing costs way less than the small thing. | 巨大的东西比小东西成本要低,这真是令人费解。 |
| 699 | So it doesn't use exotic propellants or things that are difficult to obtain on Mars. | 因此它不使用异域推进剂或火星上难以获得的东西. |
| 700 | It uses methane as fuel, and it's primarily oxygen. | 它使用甲烷作为燃料,主要是氧气. |
| 701 | It's sort of roughly 77, 78% oxygen by weight. | 大约是77,78%的氧气。 |
| 702 | And Mars has a CO2 atmosphere and has water ice, which is CO2 plus H2O, | 火星有二氧化碳大气层,有水冰, 即二氧化碳加H2O, |
| 703 | so you can make CH4, methane, and O2 oxygen on Mars. | 你可以在火星上制造CH4 甲烷和氧气 |
| 704 | Presumably one of the first tasks on Mars will be to create a fuel plant | 火星上的首要任务之一 应该是建立一个燃料厂 |
| 705 | that can create the fuel for the return trips of many Starships. | 这可以为许多星舰的回程创造燃料。 |
| 706 | Yes, and actually it's mostly going to be an oxygen plant, | 是的,实际上它大部分 将是一个氧气厂, |
| 707 | but it's because it's 78% oxygen, 22% fuel. | 这是因为78%的氧气,22%的燃料。 |
| 708 | But the fuel is a simple fuel that is easy to create on Mars | 但燃料是简单的燃料 很容易在火星上制造 |
| 709 | and on many other parts of the solar system. | 以及太阳系的许多其他部分。 |
| 710 | So basically, and it's all propulsive landing, no parachutes, nothing thrown away. | 所以基本上,这是所有的推进着陆, 没有降落伞,没有丢掉的东西。 |
| 711 | It has a heat shield that's capable of entering on Earth or Mars. | 它有能进入地球或火星的热屏蔽. |
| 712 | We could even potentially go to Venus, but you don't want to go there. | 我们甚至有可能去维纳斯, 但你不想去那里。 |
| 713 | Venus is hell, almost literally. | 维纳斯是地狱,几乎字面上。 |
| 714 | But it's a generalized method of transport to anywhere in the solar system, | 但它是一种通向太阳系任何地方的通用运输方法, |
| 715 | because to the point at which you have a propellant depot on Mars, | 因为你在火星上有一个推进剂库 |
| 716 | you can then travel to the asteroid belt and to the moons of Jupiter | 你可以去小行星带和木星的月球 |
| 717 | and then to Saturn and ultimately anywhere in the solar system. | 然后到土星 并最终在太阳系的任何地方 |
| 718 | Right, but your main focus and SpaceX's main focus is still Mars. | 是的,但你的主要焦点和SpaceX的主要焦点仍然是火星. |
| 719 | That is the mission, that is where most of the effort will go? | 这就是任务,这就是大部分努力将去的地方? |
| 720 | Or are you actually imagining a much broader array of uses, | 或者你实际上在想象 更广泛的用途, |
| 721 | even in the coming, you know, the first decade or so of uses of this? | 即使在未来,你知道, 头十年左右的使用这个? |
| 722 | Where we could go, for example, to other places in the solar system to explore, | 例如我们可以去太阳系的其他地方探索 |
| 723 | perhaps NASA wants to use the rocket for that reason? | 也许NASA想用火箭的原因? |
| 724 | Yeah, NASA is planning to use Starship to return to the moon, | 是啊,NASA正计划 利用星舰返回月球, |
| 725 | to return people to the moon. | 以还人月. |
| 726 | And so we're very honored that NASA has chosen us to do this. | 我们非常荣幸NASA选择了我们做这件事。 |
| 727 | But I'm saying it is a generalized, it's a general solution | 但我是说,这是一个通用的, 这是一个通用的解决方案 |
| 728 | to getting anywhere in the greater solar system. | 在太阳系的任何地方。 |
| 729 | It's not suitable for going to another star system, | 它不适合去另一个恒星系统, |
| 730 | but it is a general solution for transport anywhere in the solar system. | 但它是太阳系任何地方运输的一般解决办法。 |
| 731 | Before it can do any of that, it's got to demonstrate it can get into orbit around Earth. | 在它能做这些事情之前 必须证明它能进入地球周围的轨道 |
| 732 | What's your latest advice on the timeline for that? | 你最近有什么建议? |
| 733 | It's looking promising for us to have an orbital launch attempt in a few months. | 几个月后我们有望进行轨道发射 |
| 734 | So we're actually integrating the, we'll be integrating the engines | 因此,我们实际上集成 发动机 |
| 735 | into the booster for the first orbital flight starting in about a week or two. | 进入助推器进行第一次轨道飞行 大约一周或两周后开始 |
| 736 | And the launch complex itself is ready to go. | 而发射场本身也准备出发. |
| 737 | So assuming we get regulatory approval, | 所以,假设我们得到监管批准, |
| 738 | I think we could have an orbital launch attempt within a few months. | 我认为我们可以在几个月内进行轨道发射尝试。 |
| 739 | And a radical new technology like this, presumably there is real risk on those early attempts. | 类似这种激进的新技术, 推测这些早期尝试确实有风险。 |
| 740 | Yeah, yeah. | 对 对 |
| 741 | I mean, the joke I make all the time is that excitement is guaranteed. | 我的意思是,我总是在开玩笑 兴奋是有保障的。 |
| 742 | Success is not guaranteed, but excitement certainly is. | 成功是不能保证的,但激动是肯定的。 |
| 743 | But the last I saw on your timeline, | 但我最后一次看到你的时间线 |
| 744 | you've slightly put back the expected date to put the first human on Mars till 2029, I want to say. | 你稍稍把预计的日期放回火星上 到2029年 |
| 745 | Yeah, I mean, so let's see. | 是啊,我的意思是,让我们来看看。 |
| 746 | I mean, we have built a production system for Starship. | 我们为星舰建立了生产系统 |
| 747 | So we're making a lot of ships and boosters. | 因此,我们制造了许多舰船和助推器. |
| 748 | How many are you planning to make, actually? | 你计划制造多少? |
| 749 | Well, we're currently expecting to make a booster and a ship roughly every, | 我们正期待每艘都做个助推器和飞船 |
| 750 | well, initially roughly every couple of months and hopefully by the end of this year, one every month. | 嗯,最初大约每两个月, 希望到今年年底,每月一次。 |
| 751 | So it's giant rockets and a lot of them. | 所以是巨型火箭和很多火箭。 |
| 752 | Just in terms, talking in terms of rough orders of magnitude, | 就从粗略的量级来说 |
| 753 | in order to create a self-sustaining city on Mars, | 为了在火星上建立一个自我维持的城市, |
| 754 | I think we'll need something on the order of a thousand ships. | 我想我们需要一千艘船的订单 |
| 755 | We just need a Helen of Sparta, I guess, on Mars. | 我们只需要一个斯巴达的海伦, 我猜,在火星上。 |
| 756 | This is not in most people's heads, Elon. | 这在大多数人的脑子里都不是,伊隆 |
| 757 | The planet that launches a thousand ships. | 发射千艘飞船的星球 |
| 758 | That's nice. | 不错 |
| 759 | But this is not in most people's heads. | 但是这在大多数人的脑海中都不是 |
| 760 | This picture that you have in your mind that, so there's basically a two-year window. | 这张照片是你心里想的, 所以基本上有一个两年的窗口。 |
| 761 | You can only really fly to Mars conveniently every two years. | 你每两年只能方便地飞到火星 |
| 762 | Yes. | 对 |
| 763 | You are still, you are picturing that during the 2030s, every couple of years, | 你还在想象20世纪30年代 每几年 |
| 764 | something like a thousand starships take off, each containing a hundred or more people. | 像是一千艘星舰起飞 每艘都有一百多人 |
| 765 | I mean, that picture is just completely mind-blowing to me. | 我的意思是,那张照片只是 彻底的心灵吹动我。 |
| 766 | Yes. | 对 |
| 767 | That sense of this armada of humans going through. | 人类的这种感觉 |
| 768 | Yeah, like Battlestar Galactica, the fleet departs. | 是啊,就像Battlestar卡拉狄加, 舰队离开。 |
| 769 | And you think that it can basically be funded by people spending maybe a couple hundred grand on a ticket to Mars. | 并且你认为它基本上可以 由人们出资 也许花费几百万美元 在火星的机票。 |
| 770 | Is that price about where it has been? | 这是价钱吗? |
| 771 | Well, I think, what's required in order to get enough people and enough cargo to Mars to build a self-sustaining city? | 那么,我想,需要什么 才能让足够的人 和足够的货物到火星 建立一个自我维持的城市? |
| 772 | And it's where you have an intersection of sets of people who want to go, | 这是你有一个交汇 一组人谁想去, |
| 773 | because I think only a small percentage of humanity will want to go, | 因为我认为人类只有一小部分人愿意去, |
| 774 | and can afford to go or get sponsorship in some manner. | 也可以以某种方式获得赞助。 |
| 775 | That intersection of sets, I think, needs to be a million people or something like that. | 我认为,这一系列的交汇点 需要一百万人或类似的东西。 |
| 776 | And so it's what can a million people afford or get sponsorship for, | 因此,这是百万人能买得起 或获得赞助, |
| 777 | because I think governments will also pay for it, and people can take out loans. | 因为我认为政府也会为此付出代价,人们可以接受贷款. |
| 778 | But I think at the point at which you say, OK, if moving to Mars costs, if I'm going to take $100,000, | 但我想,当你说, 好吧,如果搬到火星花费, 如果我要10万美元, |
| 779 | then I think almost anyone can work and save up and eventually have $100,000 and be able to go to Mars if they want. | 然后,我想几乎任何人都可以工作 和储蓄 并最终拥有10万美元 并且能够去火星 如果他们愿意。 |
| 780 | We want to make it available to anyone who wants to go. | 我们要把它提供给任何想走的人 |
| 781 | And very important to emphasize that Mars, especially in the beginning, will not be luxurious. | 并且非常重要的是要强调火星,特别是在开始的时候,不会奢侈. |
| 782 | It will be dangerous, cramped, difficult, hard work. | 这将是危险的,抽筋,困难的,艰苦的工作。 |
| 783 | It's kind of like that Shackleton ad for going to the Antarctic, which I think is actually not real, but it sounds real and it's cool. | 这有点像沙克尔顿去南极的广告, 我认为这实际上不是真实的, 但听起来是真实的,而且很酷。 |
| 784 | It's sort of like the sales pitch for going to Mars is it's dangerous, it's cramped. | 它有点像去火星的销售投注 是危险的,它的抽筋。 |
| 785 | You might not make it back. | 你可能回不来了 |
| 786 | It's difficult. | 难曰. |
| 787 | It's hard work. | 勤修众生. |
| 788 | That's the sales pitch. | 这就是销售投注。 |
| 789 | Right. | 对 |
| 790 | But you will make history. | 但你会创造历史 |
| 791 | But it will be glorious. | 但它将是荣耀的。 |
| 792 | Right. | 对 |
| 793 | So on that kind of launch rate you're talking about, over two decades, you could get your million people to Mars, essentially. | 因此,在你说的这种发射速率上, 在20年的时间里, 你可以让你的百万人到火星,基本上。 |
| 794 | Whose city is it? | 是谁的城市? |
| 795 | Is it NASA's city? | 是NASA的城市吗? |
| 796 | 是SpaceX的城市吗? | |
| 797 | The people of Mars' city. | 火星城的人们. |
| 798 | The reason for this. | 其缘由. |
| 799 | I mean, I have to say, I feel like, well, why do this thing? | 我的意思是,我必须说,我觉得,嗯,为什么这样做? |
| 800 | I think this is important for maximizing the probable lifespan of humanity or consciousness. | 我认为,这对于最大限度地延长人类或意识的可能寿命十分重要。 |
| 801 | Human civilization could come to an end for external reasons like a giant meteor or super volcanoes or extreme climate change or World War III. | 人类文明可能由于诸如巨流或超级火山、极端气候变化或第三次世界大战等外部原因而结束。 |
| 802 | Or, you know, anyone for a number of reasons. | 或者,你知道,任何人 出于一些原因。 |
| 803 | And the probable lifespan of civilizational consciousness as we know it, which we should really view as this very delicate thing, like a small candle in a vast darkness. | 我们所知道的文明意识的 可能存在的时间, 我们确实应该把它看作是非常微妙的事情, 就像一个巨大的黑暗中的小蜡烛。 |
| 804 | That is what appears to be the case. | 看来情况就是这样。 |
| 805 | We're in this vast darkness of space. | 我们处在宇宙的黑暗之中 |
| 806 | And there's this little candle of consciousness that's only really come about after four and a half billion years. | 还有一个意识的小蜡烛 只有在45亿年后才真正出现。 |
| 807 | And it could just go out. | 并且它可能只是走出去。 |
| 808 | I think that's powerful. | 我认为这很有力。 |
| 809 | And I think a lot of people will be inspired by that vision. | 我认为很多人会从这一愿景中得到启发。 |
| 810 | And so the reason you need the million people is because there has to be enough people there to do everything that you need to survive. | 所以,你需要百万人的原因是 因为那里必须有足够的人 做你需要的 生存的一切。 |
| 811 | Really, the critical threshold is if the ships from Earth stop coming for any reason, does Mars City die out or not? | 真的,关键的门槛是,如果来自地球的飞船停止了任何原因的来袭,火星城是否死亡了? |
| 812 | And so we have to pass that. | 因此,我们必须通过这一点。 |
| 813 | You know, people talk about like these sort of the great filters, the things that perhaps, you know, we talk about the Fermi paradox and where are the aliens? | 你知道,人们谈论 喜欢这种 伟大的过滤器, 也许的东西,你知道, 我们谈论费米悖论 和外星人在哪里? |
| 814 | And like, well, maybe the aliens didn't, there is various great filters that the aliens didn't pass. | 也许外星人没有 外星人没有通过各种伟大的过滤器 |
| 815 | And so they eventually just cease to exist. | 所以它们最终就消失了 |
| 816 | And one of the great filters is becoming a multi-planet species. | 其中一个伟大的滤波器正在成为多行星物种。 |
| 817 | So we want to pass that filter. | 所以我们想通过过滤器。 |
| 818 | And I'll be long dead before this is, you know, a real thing, before it happens. | 在这件事发生之前 我会死很久的 |
| 819 | But I'd like to at least see us make great progress in this direction. | 但我至少希望看到我们在这方面取得巨大进展。 |
| 820 | Given how tortured the Earth is right now, how much we're beating each other up, shouldn't there be discussions going on with everyone who is dreaming about Mars to try to say, | 鉴于地球现在是多么的折磨, 多少我们正在打对方, 不应该有讨论 与所有谁 梦想火星试图说, |
| 821 | we've got a once, once in a civilization's chance to make some new rules here? | 我们有一次,一次 在文明的机会 制定一些新的规则在这里? |
| 822 | Should someone be trying to lead those discussions to figure out what it means for this to be the people of Mars City? | 是否应该有人试图引导这些讨论 找出这对火星城人民意味着什么? |
| 823 | Well, I think ultimately this will be up to the people of Mars to decide what, how they want to rethink society. | 我认为这最终将由火星人民决定 他们想怎样重新思考社会 |
| 824 | Yet there's certainly a risk there. | 但那里肯定有危险 |
| 825 | And hopefully the people of Mars will be more enlightened and will not fight amongst each other too much. | 希望火星人会更加开明 彼此之间不会太吵 |
| 826 | I mean, I have some recommendations, but which people of Mars may choose to listen to or not. | 我的意思是,我有一些建议, 但哪些火星人可能选择听或不听。 |
| 827 | And I would advocate for more of a direct democracy, not a representative democracy. | 我主张更多的直接民主,而不是代议制民主。 |
| 828 | And laws that are short enough for people to understand and where it is harder to create laws than to get rid of them. | 而法律短得足以让人理解,而制定法律比摆脱法律更难。 |
| 829 | Coming back a bit nearer term, I'd love you to just talk a bit about some of the other possibilities space that Starship seems to have created. | 回来的更近一点, 我希望你只是谈谈一些 其它的可能性空间, 星舰似乎已经创造了。 |
| 830 | So given given suddenly we've got this ability to move 100 tons plus into orbit. | 突然间,我们有了把100吨加到轨道的能力。 |
| 831 | Yes. | 对 |
| 832 | So we've just spent, we've just launched the James Webb telescope, which is an incredible thing. | 所以我们刚刚花费了,我们刚刚发射了詹姆斯·韦伯望远镜,这是一件不可思议的事情。 |
| 833 | It's unbelievable. | 难以置信 |
| 834 | It's an exquisite piece of technology, but people spent two years trying to figure out how to fold up this thing. | 这是一个精致的技术, 但人们花了两年时间 试图找出如何折叠这个东西。 |
| 835 | It's a three ton telescope. | 三吨级望远镜. |
| 836 | We can make it a lot easier if you've got more volume and mass. | 如果你有更多的体积和质地 我们可以让它变得更容易。 |
| 837 | But let's ask a different question, which is how much more powerful a telescope could someone design based on using Starship, for example? | 但是,让我们问一个不同的问题, 一个望远镜能有多大的威力 有人可以设计基于星际飞船,例如? |
| 838 | I mean, roughly I'd say it's probably an order of magnitude more resolution. | 我的意思是,我大概会说,这可能是一个数量级 更分辨率。 |
| 839 | If you've got a hundred tons and a thousand cubic meters volume, which is roughly what we have. | 如果你有一百吨和一千立方米的体积, 这大致就是我们所拥有的。 |
| 840 | And what about other exploration through the solar system? | 那太阳系的其他探索呢? |
| 841 | I mean, I'm, you know. | 我是说,我是,你知道的。 |
| 842 | Europa. | 欧罗巴 |
| 843 | Well, Europa. | 欧罗巴 |
| 844 | Big question mark. | 大问号. |
| 845 | Right. | 对 |
| 846 | So there's an ocean there, right? | 那里有个大海,对吧? |
| 847 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 848 | And what you really want to do is to drop a submarine into the ocean. | 你真正想做的是把潜艇扔到海里。 |
| 849 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 850 | Maybe there's like some squid civilization under the cephalopod civilization under the ice of Europa. | 可能有些乌贼文明 在欧罗巴的冰下 |
| 851 | That would be pretty interesting. | 这将是相当有趣的。 |
| 852 | I mean, Elon, if you could take a submarine to Europa and we see pictures of this thing being devoured by a squid, that would honestly be the happiest moment of our life. | 我的意思是,伊隆,如果你能坐潜水艇去欧罗巴... ...然后我们看到这艘船被乌贼吞噬的照片, 那将会是我们生命中最快乐的时刻。 |
| 853 | Pretty wild, yeah. | 相当狂野,是的。 |
| 854 | What other possibilities are out there? | 还有什么可能呢? |
| 855 | Like, it feels like if you're going to create a thousand of these things, they can only fly to Mars every two years. | 比如,感觉如果你要创造一千件这些东西, 它们只能每两年飞到火星. |
| 856 | What are they doing the rest of the time? | 剩下的时间他们在做什么? |
| 857 | It feels like there's this explosion of possibility that I don't think people are really thinking about. | 感觉有这种爆炸的可能性,我不认为人们真的在思考. |
| 858 | I mean, I don't know. | 我是说,我不知道。 |
| 859 | We've certainly got a long way to go. | 我们还有很长的路要走 |
| 860 | As you alluded to earlier, we still have to get to orbit. | 正如你早些时候提到的那样,我们仍然必须进入轨道。 |
| 861 | And then after we get to orbit, we have to really prove out and refine full and rapid reusability. | 然后,我们到达轨道后, 我们必须真正地证明出来, 并完善充分和快速的再使用性。 |
| 862 | That'll take a moment. | 这需要一点时间。 |
| 863 | But I do think we will solve this. | 但我认为我们会解决这个问题。 |
| 864 | I am highly confident we will solve this at this point. | 我非常有信心,我们将解决这一点。 |
| 865 | Do you ever wake up with the fear that there's going to be this Hindenburg moment for SpaceX where... | 你是否曾经醒来时 担心会有这个兴登堡的时刻 在SpaceX... |
| 866 | We've had many Hindenburg. | 我们有过很多兴登堡。 |
| 867 | Well, we've never had Hindenburg moments with people, which is very important. | 我们从未有过兴登堡与人相处的时刻, 这是非常重要的。 |
| 868 | Big difference. | 大差别. |
| 869 | Right, there is. | 对,有的 |
| 870 | We've blown up quite a few rockets. | 我们炸了好多火箭 |
| 871 | There's a whole compilation in line that we put together and others put together. | 有一个完整的汇编,我们一起整理,其他人一起整理。 |
| 872 | It's showing rockets are hard. | 它显示火箭很难。 |
| 873 | I mean, the sheer amount of energy going through a rocket is boggles the mind. | 我的意思是, 光是通过火箭的能量 就会使心灵崩溃。 |
| 874 | So getting out of both gravity well is difficult. | 所以从两个重力井里出来很困难 |
| 875 | We have a strong gravity and a thick atmosphere. | 我们的重力很强,气氛很浓厚。 |
| 876 | And Mars, which is less than 40% of... | 还有火星,不到40%... |
| 877 | It's like 37% of Earth's gravity and has a thin atmosphere. | 它就像地球引力的37%,并且有稀薄的大气层. |
| 878 | The ship alone can go all the way from the surface of Mars to the surface of Earth. | 舰只可以从火星表面一直到地球表面. |
| 879 | Whereas getting to Mars requires a giant booster and orbital refilling. | 而到达火星需要巨大的助推器和轨道再充填. |
| 880 | So, Elon, think more about this incredible array of things that you're involved with. | 所以,伊隆,多想想你参与的这些不可思议的事情。 |
| 881 | I keep seeing these synergies, to use a horrible word, between them. | 我一直看到这些协同作用, 用一个可怕的词,他们之间。 |
| 882 | For example, the robots you're building from Tesla could possibly be pretty handy on Mars. | 例如,你从特斯拉建造的机器人 在火星上可能相当方便 |
| 883 | Doing some of the dangerous work and so forth. | 做一些危险的工作等等。 |
| 884 | Maybe there's a scenario where your city on Mars doesn't need a million people. | 也许在火星上的城市不需要一百万人 |
| 885 | It needs half a million people and half a million robots. | 它需要50万人和50万机器人. |
| 886 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 887 | And that's a possibility. | 这是可能的。 |
| 888 | Maybe the Boring Company could play a role, | 也许Boring公司可以扮演一个角色, |
| 889 | helping create some of those subterranean dwelling spaces that you might need. | 帮助创建一些你可能需要的地下住宅空间。 |
| 890 | Back on planet Earth, it seems like a partnership between Boring Company and Tesla | 回到地球,它看起来像是伯灵公司和特斯拉的合作 |
| 891 | could offer an unbelievable deal to a city to say, | 可以提供 一个令人难以置信的交易 一个城市说, |
| 892 | we will create for you a 3D network of tunnels populated by robotaxis | 我们将为你建立一个由机器人轴组成的三维隧道网络 |
| 893 | that will offer fast, low-cost transport to anyone. | 它可以提供快速,低成本的交通 任何人。 |
| 894 | Full self-driving may or may not be done this year. | 完全自驾车可能在今年完成也可能不完成. |
| 895 | And in some cities, like Mumbai, I suspect won't be done for a decade. | 在一些城市里,比如孟买,我怀疑十年内都做不到。 |
| 896 | Some places are more challenging than others. | 有些地方比其他地方更具挑战性。 |
| 897 | But today, with what you've got, you could put a 3D network of tunnels under there. | 但是今天,用你所拥有的东西, 你可以把一个3D网络 隧道在那里。 |
| 898 | If it's just a tunnel, that's the sole problem, basically. | 如果它只是一个隧道, 这是唯一的问题,基本上。 |
| 899 | Exactly. | 没错 |
| 900 | Full self-driving is the sole problem. | 完全自驾是唯一的问题. |
| 901 | To me, there's amazing synergy there. | 对我来说,那里有惊人的协同作用。 |
| 902 | 和星舰,你知道, Gwynne Shotwell谈到, | |
| 903 | by 2028, having from city to city, you know, transport on planet Earth. | 到2028年,有从城市到城市, 你知道,在地球上的交通。 |
| 904 | Yeah, this is a real possibility. | 是啊,这是真正的可能。 |
| 905 | The fastest way to get from one place to another, if it's long distance, is a rocket. | 从一个地方到另一个地方最快的方式,如果是长距离,就是火箭. |
| 906 | It's basically an ICBM with a landing delete nuke. | 它基本上是一个ICBM 与着陆删除核弹。 |
| 907 | Because it's an ICBM, it has to land probably offshore. | 因为它是一个ICBM, 它必须降落 很可能离岸。 |
| 908 | Yes, it's a bit loud. | 是的,有点大声。 |
| 909 | Because it's loud. | 因甚声响. |
| 910 | So why not have a tunnel that then connects to the city? | 那么,为什么不有一个隧道 然后连接城市? |
| 911 | Yeah, that'd be cool. | 是啊,这将是很酷的。 |
| 912 | And Neuralink, I mean, if you're going to go to Mars, | 还有Neuralink 我是说 如果你要去火星 |
| 913 | having a telepathic connection with loved ones back home, even if there's a time delay. | 和家人有心灵感应 即使有时间拖延 |
| 914 | These are not intended to be connected, by the way. | 顺便说一句,这些不是要连接的。 |
| 915 | But there certainly could be some synergies, yeah. | 但肯定有某种协同作用,是的。 |
| 916 | Surely there is a growing argument that you should actually put all these things together | 肯定有越来越多的人认为你应该把这些东西拼凑起来 |
| 917 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}只有一家公司 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}致力于创造一个令人振奋的未来 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我还不知道 | |
| 918 | and let a thousand flowers bloom. | 让一千朵花开花 |
| 919 | Have you been thinking about that? | 你有想过吗? |
| 920 | I mean, it is tricky because Tesla is a publicly traded company | 我的意思是,这是棘手的 因为特斯拉是一个公开交易的公司 |
| 921 | 而Tesla和SpaceX的投资者 以及Boring Company和Neuralink 的投资者 则大不相同 | |
| 922 | Boring Company和Neuralink都是小公司. | |
| 923 | Right, by comparison. | 对,相比之下。 |
| 924 | The audience may, yeah. | 观众可以,是的。 |
| 925 | Tesla's got 110,000 people. | 特斯拉拥有11万人. |
| 926 | 我想,SpaceX大约是12,000人。 | |
| 927 | Boring Company和Neuralink都低于200人. | |
| 928 | So they're little tiny companies. | 所以他们是小公司 |
| 929 | But they will probably get bigger in the future. | 但他们将来可能会变大。 |
| 930 | They will get bigger in the future. | 他们将来会变大 |
| 931 | It's not that easy to sort of combine these things. | 合并这些东西并不容易。 |
| 932 | Traditionally, you've said that for SpaceX especially, you wouldn't want it public | 传统上,你说SpaceX 尤其是你不希望它公开 |
| 933 | because public investors wouldn't support the craziness of the idea of going to Mars or whatever. | 因为公众投资者不会支持 去火星之类的疯狂想法 |
| 934 | Yeah, making life multiplanetaries is outside of the normal time horizon of Wall Street analysts. | 是的,制造生命的多行星 是在正常的时间范围之外 华尔街分析员。 |
| 935 | To say the least. | 以说最下. |
| 936 | I think something's changed though. | 我觉得有些事情变了 |
| 937 | What's changed is that Tesla is now so powerful and so big and throws off so much cash | 改变的是,特斯拉现在如此强大 如此庞大 并扔下这么多现金 |
| 938 | that you actually could connect the dots here. | 你可以把这里的点连接起来 |
| 939 | Just tell the public that X billion dollars a year, whatever your number is, | 告诉公众,每年十亿 不管你的号码是多少 |
| 940 | will be diverted to the Mars mission. | 将被转移到火星任务 |
| 941 | I suspect you'd have massive interest in that company. | 我猜你对那家公司很感兴趣 |
| 942 | And it might unlock a lot more possibility for you now. | 它可能会为你打开更多的可能性。 |
| 943 | I mean, I would like to give the public access to ownership of SpaceX. | 我想让公众获得SpaceX的所有权 |
| 944 | The overhead associated with a public company is high. | 与公营公司有关的间接费用很高。 |
| 945 | As a public company, you're just constantly sued. | 作为一个公共公司, 你只是不断被起诉。 |
| 946 | It does occupy a fair bit of time and effort to deal with these things. | 它确实占用相当的时间和精力来处理这些事情。 |
| 947 | Right. | 对 |
| 948 | But you would still only have one public company. | 但你还是只有一家公共公司 |
| 949 | It would be bigger and have more things going on. | 它会更大 并且有更多的事情发生。 |
| 950 | But instead of being on four boards, you'd be on one. | 但与其在四块板上,不如在一块板上 |
| 951 | 实际上,我甚至不在Neuralink或Boring公司的董事会。 | |
| 952 | And I don't really attend the SpaceX board meetings. | 我也不参加SpaceX董事会会议。 |
| 953 | We only have two a year and I just stop by and chat for an hour. | 我们一年只有两个,我只是过来聊一小时。 |
| 954 | The board overhead for a public company is much higher. | 公共公司的董事会管理费要高得多。 |
| 955 | Right. | 对 |
| 956 | I think some investors probably worry about how your time is being split | 我想有些投资人可能担心 你的时间被分割了 |
| 957 | and they might be excited by that. | 他们可能对此感到兴奋。 |
| 958 | Anyway, I just woke up the other day thinking there are so many ways in which these things connect. | 总之,我刚刚醒来 有一天,我想有这么多的方法 这些东西连接。 |
| 959 | And just the simplicity of that mission of building a future that is worth getting excited about | 简而言之 建立一个值得兴奋的未来 |
| 960 | might appeal to an awful lot of people. | 可能会吸引很多人 |
| 961 | Elon, you are reported by Forbes and everyone else as now the world's richest person. | 伊隆,你被福布斯和其他人报道 成为全球最富有的人 |
| 962 | That's not a sovereign. | 这不是一个主权。 |
| 963 | You know, I think it's fair to say that if somebody is like the king or de facto king of a country, | 我觉得应该说 如果有人像一个国家的国王或事实上的国王 |
| 964 | they're wealthier than I am. | 他们比我有钱 |
| 965 | But it's just harder to measure. | 但它只是比较难衡量。 |
| 966 | So, $300 billion, I mean, your net worth on any given day is rising or falling by several billion dollars. | 所以,3000亿美元,我的意思是, 你的任何一天的净值 正在上升或下降数十亿美元。 |
| 967 | How insane is that? | 太疯狂了? |
| 968 | It's bonkers, yeah. | 这是愚蠢的,是的。 |
| 969 | I mean, how do you handle that psychologically? | 我的意思是,你如何处理 心理上? |
| 970 | There aren't many people in the world who have to even think about that. | 世界上没有多少人需要考虑这个问题。 |
| 971 | I actually don't think about that too much. | 我其实没想太多 |
| 972 | But the thing that is actually more difficult and that does make sleeping difficult is that | 但实际上更难 和确实使睡眠困难的是, |
| 973 | every good hour or even minute of thinking about Tesla and SpaceX has such a big effect on the company | 对Tesla和SpaceX的思索 对公司影响很大 |
| 974 | that I really try to work as much as possible to the edge of sanity, basically. | 基本上,我真的在努力 尽可能地工作到理智的边缘。 |
| 975 | Because Tesla is getting to the point where Tesla is getting to the point where | 因为特斯拉已经到了 特斯拉已经到了 |
| 976 | Probably will get to the point later this year where every good every high-quality minutes of thinking | 也许今年晚些时候会达到一个点, 每一个优秀的思考分钟 |
| 977 | is a million dollars to | 一百万美元到 |
| 978 | impact on Tesla, so | 对特斯拉的影响,所以 |
| 979 | Which is insane so I | 这太疯狂了 |
| 980 | Mean the basic, you know if Tesla's doing | 意思是基础,你知道 如果特斯拉做 |
| 981 | You know of a sort of two billion dollars a week. | 每周有20亿美金 |
| 982 | Let's say in revenue is sort of 300 million dollars a day | 这么说吧,每天的收入是3亿美金 |
| 983 | seven days a week | 每周七天 |
| 984 | You know, it's | 你知道,这是 |
| 985 | If you can change that by five percent in an hour's brainstorm | 如果你能在一小时的脑风暴中 改变5% |
| 986 | But that those are valuable. | 但是这些是有价值的。 |
| 987 | That's a pretty valuable hour. | 这是一个相当宝贵的小时。 |
| 988 | I mean that there are many instances where a | 我的意思是,有许多例子,一个 |
| 989 | Half-hour meeting the fan at I was able to improve the financial icon with the company by | 半小时后,我和粉丝见面 与公司一起改进了财务图标 |
| 990 | a hundred million dollars in a half-hour meeting | 半个小时的会议里一亿美金 |
| 991 | There are many other people out there who who who can't stand this world of billionaires like they are | 外面还有很多人 谁受不了这个 亿万富翁的世界,像他们一样 |
| 992 | hugely offended by the notion that an | 深深冒犯了这个概念: |
| 993 | Individual can have the same wealth as say a billion of or more of the the world's poorest people | 个人的财富可以和世界上十亿或十亿以上最贫穷的人一样 |
| 994 | If they examine sort of the sort of I think there's some axiomatic flaws | 如果他们检查了那种类型的 我认为有一些逻辑上的缺陷 |
| 995 | That that are leading to them to that conclusion | 导致他们得出这种结论 |
| 996 | If for sure it would be very problematic if I was consuming | 狦и穦陈沸 |
| 997 | You know billions of dollars a year in personal consumption, but that is not the case. | 你知道每年数十亿美元的个人消费,但情况并非如此。 |
| 998 | In fact, I don't even own a home right now | 其实我现在连家都没有 |
| 999 | I'm literally staying at friends places | 我其实住在朋友的地方 |
| 1000 | I if I travel to the Bay Area where most of tells the engineering is I stay in my I basically rotate through friends spare bedrooms | 如果我去湾区 大部分时间都说 工程是留在我的房间里 我基本上通过朋友的卧室旋转 |
| 1001 | I don't have a yard. | 我没有院子 |
| 1002 | I really don't take vacations | 我真的不放假的 |
| 1003 | so | 这样 |
| 1004 | It's not it's not as though there's that my personal consumption is is high | 又不是说我个人消费很高 |
| 1005 | With the only one exception is a plane, but if I don't use the plane that I have less hours to work | 只有一个例外,是飞机, 但是如果我不使用飞机,我工作的时间更少了 |
| 1006 | so | 这样 |
| 1007 | I mean, I personally think you have shown that you are mostly driven by | 我的意思是,我个人认为你已经表明 你大多被驱动 |
| 1008 | really quite a deep sense of moral purpose like you've tried your your your your attempts to | 真正的深层道德意识 就像你尝试过你的尝试 |
| 1009 | solve the climate problem have | 解决气候问题 |
| 1010 | Have been as powerful as anyone else on the planet that I'm aware of and I actually can't understand | 曾经和地球上的任何人一样强大 我意识到,实际上我无法理解 |
| 1011 | Personally, I can't understand the fact that you get all this criticism from the left about oh my god, he's so rich. | 就我个人而言,我无法理解你从左翼得到这么多的批评 关于哦,我的上帝,他是如此富有。 |
| 1012 | That's disgusting | 真恶心 |
| 1013 | When when climate is their issue? | 气候是什么时候的问题? |
| 1014 | Philanthropy is a topic that some people go to philanthropy is a hard topic. | 慈善事业是一些人去慈善事业的话题,是一个很困难的话题. |
| 1015 | Like how how do you think about that? | 你觉得怎么样? |
| 1016 | I think if you care about the reality of goodness instead of the perception of it film throughout philanthropy is extremely difficult | 我认为如果你关心善良的现实 而不是它在整个慈善事业中 的印象是极其困难的 |
| 1017 | SpaceX Tesla Neuralink Boring公司是慈善公司 如果你说慈善是对人类的爱 | |
| 1018 | They are philanthropy | 他们是慈善的 |
| 1019 | There Tesla is accelerating sustainable energy. | 特斯拉正在加速使用可持续能源。 |
| 1020 | This is a love of you of full entropy | 这是对你的爱 完全的Entropy |
| 1021 | SpaceX is trying to ensure the long-term survival of humanity with multi-planet species. | SpaceX试图确保人类与多行星物种的长期生存. |
| 1022 | This is love of humanity | 这是人类的爱 |
| 1023 | 你知道Neuralink是帮助解决 | |
| 1024 | brain injuries and | 脑损伤和 |
| 1025 | existential risk with AI love of humanity boring company is trying to solve traffic, which is health most people and | AI的爱人 无聊的公司试图解决交通问题 也就是大部分人的健康 |
| 1026 | That also is this opportunity. | 这也是这个机会。 |
| 1027 | It's like that. | 犹如是. |
| 1028 | How how | 怎么样 |
| 1029 | upsetting is it to you to hear this constant drumbeat of | 听到这个不停的鼓声 让你很不安 |
| 1030 | Billionaires my god, Elon Musk. | 亿万富翁 我的神 伊隆·穆斯克 |
| 1031 | Oh my god | 天呐 |
| 1032 | Like is that do you do you do you just shrug that off or does it does it actually hurt? | 比如说,你只是把那个缩下来 还是它真的疼? |
| 1033 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 1034 | Mean at this point, it's water if it takes back, you know | 这时候是水,如果它收回,你知道的 |
| 1035 | I like to as we wrap up now just pull the camera back and just think | 我喜欢现在收尾的时候 把摄像机拉回来 想想看 |
| 1036 | You're a father. | 你是个父亲。 |
| 1037 | I have seven | 我有七个 |
| 1038 | surviving kids and and well | 幸存的孩子们和好 |
| 1039 | I mean, I'm trying to say a good example because the birth rate on earth is so low that we're facing | 我的意思是,我试图说一个好的例子 因为地球上的出生率如此低 以至于我们面对 |
| 1040 | civilizational collapse unless the birth rate of | 文明崩溃,除非 |
| 1041 | Returns to a | 返回为a |
| 1042 | sustainable level | 可持续一级 |
| 1043 | Yeah, you've talked about this a lot that depopulation is a big problem and we we we yes people don't understand | 是的,你已经谈论了很多, 人口减少是一个大问题, 我们是的,人们不明白 |
| 1044 | The ocean collapse is one of the biggest threats to the future of human civilization and that is what is going on right now | 海洋崩塌是对人类文明未来的最大威胁之一,这就是现在发生的事情。 |
| 1045 | How what drives you on a day-to-day basis to do what you do? | 什么驱使你每天做你做的事? |
| 1046 | I? | 我吗? |
| 1047 | guess like I I really want to make sure that there is a good future for humanity and | 我想确保人类有美好的未来 |
| 1048 | That we're on a path to understanding the nature of the universe | 我们正走在了解宇宙本质的道路上 |
| 1049 | The meaning of life why are we here? | 生命的意义 为什么我们在这里? |
| 1050 | How do we get here? | 我们怎么到这里? |
| 1051 | and in order to | 并为了 |
| 1052 | understand the nature of the universe and | 了解宇宙的性质 |
| 1053 | all these fundamental questions | 所有这些根本问题 |
| 1054 | We must expand the scope and scale of consciousness | 我们必须扩大意识的范围和规模 |
| 1055 | I | 一、导 言 |
| 1056 | Certainly it must not diminish or go out. | 当然,它不能减少或退出。 |
| 1057 | We certainly we weren't understand this | 我们当然不明白 |
| 1058 | so I I would say I'm a motivated by curiosity more than anything and | 所以我会说我的动机 好奇心胜过一切 |
| 1059 | just desire to think about the future and | 只是想考虑未来 |
| 1060 | not be sad, you know and | 不要伤心,你知道 |
| 1061 | And and are you are you not sad? | 你还不伤心吗? |
| 1062 | I'm sometimes sad. | 我有时很伤心 |
| 1063 | I mostly I'm I'm I'm feeling I guess | 我大部分都是我 我觉得我猜 |
| 1064 | relatively optimistic about the future these days | 现在对将来比较乐观 |
| 1065 | There are certainly | 当然有 |
| 1066 | some big risks that humanity faces I | 人类面临的一些重大风险 |
| 1067 | Think the population collapse is a really big deal that I wish more people would | 认为人口崩溃是一件大事 我希望更多的人会 |
| 1068 | would think about | 会考虑 |
| 1069 | Because the birth rate is far below | 因为出生率远远低于 |
| 1070 | What's needed to sustain civilization as current at its current level? | 需要什么来维持目前的文明? |
| 1071 | and | 和 |
| 1072 | Yeah, there's obviously | 是的,很明显 |
| 1073 | And we need to take action on climate sustainability, which is how it's being done | 我们需要对气候的可持续性采取行动, 这就是如何做到这一点。 |
| 1074 | And we need to secure the future of consciousness by being a multi-planet species | 我们需要确保未来的意识 通过作为一个多行星物种 |
| 1075 | We need to address the essentially we it's important to take whatever actions we can think of to address the existential risks that affect the | 我们需要解决根本上的问题,重要的是采取我们所能想到的任何行动来应对影响人类的生存风险。 |
| 1076 | the future of | 未来 |
| 1077 | Consciousness there's a whole generation coming through who seem really sad about the future. | 意识中,有整整一代人经过, 他们似乎真的悲伤的未来。 |
| 1078 | What would you say to them? | 你会对他们说什么? |
| 1079 | Well, I think if you want the future to be good, you must make it so | 嗯,我想如果你希望未来是好的, 你必须让它如此 |
| 1080 | Take action | 采取行动 |
| 1081 | To make it good and it will be | 让它好,它会是 |
| 1082 | Elon thank you for all this time. | 伊隆一直感谢你 |
| 1083 | That is a beautiful place to end. | 这是一个美丽的地方结束。 |
| 1084 | Thanks for all that you're doing | 谢谢你所做的一切 |
| 1085 | For all that you're doing | 为了你所做的一切 |
| 1086 | You're welcome | 不用谢 |
| 1087 | Thanks for all that you're doing | 谢谢你所做的一切 |
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