TED演讲：当世界走向电动化时，加油站会怎么样？

发布于 2024-02-28 · 时长 8:13

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:08	Picture this.	想象一下这个
0:10	You're in your car, and you're getting worried.	尔时车驾而忧.
0:14	You were really, really relying	你真的很,真的很依赖
0:16	on that fuel station being open.	燃料站是开放的。
0:19	Now you're not sure you're going to make it to the next	现在,你不确定你要去下一个
0:21	one you see on your map.	一个你在地图上看到的。
0:22	And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.	而这一地区因不可靠的站点而臭名昭著.
0:27	You definitely	当然
0:28	don't have enough range to make it to the one that you know is usually working, or even	没有足够的范围使它到一个你知道通常工作,甚至
0:32	the one that at least has decent customer service on their helpline when it's down.	一个至少有体面的客户服务在他们的求助热线当它关闭。

展开字幕全文（138 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Picture this.	想象一下这个
2	You're in your car, and you're getting worried.	尔时车驾而忧.
3	You were really, really relying	你真的很,真的很依赖
4	on that fuel station being open.	燃料站是开放的。
5	Now you're not sure you're going to make it to the next	现在,你不确定你要去下一个
6	one you see on your map.	一个你在地图上看到的。
7	And this area is notorious for unreliable stations.	而这一地区因不可靠的站点而臭名昭著.
8	You definitely	当然
9	don't have enough range to make it to the one that you know is usually working, or even	没有足够的范围使它到一个你知道通常工作,甚至
10	the one that at least has decent customer service on their helpline when it's down.	一个至少有体面的客户服务在他们的求助热线当它关闭。
11	So you slow way down to conserve energy and sigh when you see a giant hill coming up on	所以,你慢下来节约能源并叹息当你看到一个巨大的山丘上
12	the freeway ahead of you.	高速公路在你前面。
13	The way people are driving, there is no way you're going to make	人们开车的方式,你不可能做到
14	it up this hill at a safe highway speed without killing your energy efficiency.	它在山上以安全的高速公路速度而又不破坏你的能效
15	It's hot out,	外面很热
16	but you turn off your AC and remind yourself again that charging your phone in the car	但你把空调关了提醒自己在车里充电
17	doesn't actually use that much energy.	并没有真正使用这么多的能量。
18	Man, you think to yourself.	伙计,你自己想想
19	I remember when this	我记得这个
20	was a problem for EVs.	对EV来说是个问题
21	But when I bought this car, I just didn't think finding gasoline	但当我买这辆车时,我没想到能找到汽油
22	was ever going to be this much of a problem.	曾经是这么多的问题。
23	If we succeed at reaching international climate	如果我们成功地达到国际气候
24	goals, the fossil fuel infrastructure systems that support about 80% of global energy consumption	支持全球能源消费约80%的矿物燃料基础设施系统
25	will mostly, if not entirely, retire over the next few decades.	在未来几十年里,如果不是完全退休的话,大部分将退休。
26	The global dominance	全球支配地位
27	of fossil fuels and the global emergency of climate change means that this retirement	化石燃料和全球气候变化紧急情况意味着这种退休
28	imperative exists everywhere, whether infrastructure is relatively old, like in the US where I	不论基础设施是否相对较旧,
29	work on these issues and where most of my examples come from, or relatively newer as	关于这些问题的工作,以及我的大多数例子来自何处,或较新的例子,例如:
30	in many countries with more recent industrialization.	在许多最近工业化的国家。
31	What I'm talking about is big infrastructure,	我说的是大基础设施
32	like power plants and refineries, but it's also things like gas stations and people's cars,	发电厂和炼油厂, 但它也是像加油站和人们的汽车,
33	stoves and furnaces.	炉子和炉子
34	Fossil fuel infrastructure is a complex network of high hazard industries	化石燃料基础设施是一个由高风险行业组成的复杂网络.
35	that need to be able to continue to operate safely until the new system is completely	需要能够继续安全运行直到新系统完全完成
36	ready to take over, including during emergencies complicated by climate change.	准备接管,包括在气候变化造成的紧急情况下。
37	Just letting	只是让
38	these systems go away would be deeply disruptive and hazardous.	如果这些系统消失,将会造成极大的破坏和危险。
39	We'd expect disproportionate harm	我们预计会遭受不相称的伤害
40	to overburdened and underserved communities who can't opt out from skyrocketing prices,	那些无法选择退出价格暴涨的社区,
41	abandoned remediation plans, and declining access to energy services.	放弃了补救计划,能源服务的获取机会减少。
42	This means ongoing	这意味着持续
43	fossil expenditures and a reliance on highly trained workers in industries that might not	化石支出和对行业中训练有素的工人的依赖
44	outlast their careers, with a simultaneous focus on phasing out these same industries	结束职业生涯,同时注重淘汰这些行业
45	as quickly as possible to address climate change and a host of other environmental injustices.	尽快应对气候变化和其他一系列环境不公正现象。
46	This is why we need to plan.	这就是为什么我们需要计划。
47	And right now, there's basically nowhere in the world where	而现在,世界上几乎没有一个地方
48	these urgently needed plans for phasing out the fossil system while phasing in the clean energy	这些迫切需要的逐步淘汰化石系统的计划,同时逐步采用清洁能源
49	system exist.	系统存在。
50	When we talk about climate goals, the question I like to ask is, if we actually	当我们谈论气候目标时我想问的问题是如果我们真的
51	believed we were going to succeed, what would we need to be doing right now?	相信我们会成功我们现在需要做什么?
52	The time between now	从现在开始
53	and success is where this gets real and very difficult.	成功是真正和非常困难的地方。
54	Sarah Hastings-Simon and I call this	莎拉・黑斯廷斯・西蒙和我叫这个
55	the mid-transition.	中间过渡。
56	And even under a best-case scenario, it will probably last for decades.	即使是在最好的情况下也可能持续几十年
57	During the mid-transition, the clean energy system and the fossil energy system are both too small	在过渡中期,清洁能源系统和化石能源系统都太小
58	to fulfill all of the energy needs we have, but big enough that they can't really operate	满足我们所有的能量需求但体积足够大无法真正运作
59	without constraining each other.	而不互相约束
60	Also, the mid-transition overlaps with the climate	此外,过渡中期与气候重叠
61	transition.	过渡。
62	This means we'd expect the systems we have now to become less functional as they	这意味着我们期望现在的系统功能降低,因为它们
63	operate further and further outside of design parameters.	在设计参数之外进一步运行。
64	And it also means we don't entirely	也意味着我们并不完全
65	know what the new systems will need to be able to handle.	了解新系统需要处理什么。
66	Another issue here is that we'd also	这里的另一个问题是,我们也会
67	expect that the transitioning system will just generally work less well than either the stable	预期过渡系统一般不会像稳定型系统那样运作。
68	starting point or the stable end point.	起点或稳定终点。
69	As long as both systems are operating at scale, we can't	只要两套系统都规模化了我们就不能
70	optimize for either one's needs.	最好地满足其中之一的需要。
71	People are often willing to accept some level of problem in order	人们常常愿意接受某种程度的问题
72	to enable a shared future vision.	实现共同的未来愿景。
73	But trust in that vision will be extraordinarily fragile when	但是,对这个设想的信任,在
74	it's required for decades while climate impacts are making everything scarier and while we're	需要几十年的时间气候影响使得一切变得更加可怕而我们则
75	visibly dismantling infrastructure that people remember as functional.	明显拆除人们记忆中的功能性基础设施。
76	As we plan, keeping a	我们计划,保持一个
77	clear and focused commitment on people first and foremost and ensuring that these are community-led	明确和重点突出的承诺,首先是对人民的承诺,并确保这些承诺是社区主导的;
78	projects will be critical.	这些项目至关重要。
79	One of the nice things about existing energy infrastructure is it exists.	现有能源基础设施的好东西之一是它的存在。
80	So you can go to a power plant break room and chat up people about how long they expect to keep	这样你就可以去一个电厂破房和人们聊天他们期待保持多久
81	working or which bits of the plant site might need remediation.	工作或工厂工地的哪些位可能需要补救。
82	This means planning can be very,	这意味着计划可以非常,
83	very specific and guided by the expertise of people that are in these places.	非常具体,并且以这些地方的人的专门知识为指导。
84	Who needs a job	谁需要工作
85	if the power plant closes?	如果电厂关闭?
86	Does everyone in town have safe temperatures in their homes?	镇上的每个人都家里有安全的温度吗?
87	Which gas	哪个气体
88	stations need to stay open longer than they're profitable to make sure that everybody can get	车站需要保持开放时间超过利润,以确保每个人都可以得到
89	to work while alternative transportation systems mature?	在替代运输系统成熟时开展工作?
90	How much extra funding do you need for the	您需要多少额外资金用于
91	if tax revenues start to decline?	如果税收开始下降?
92	Although good transition plans need to be deeply community	尽管良好的过渡计划需要深入社区
93	embedded, the scale and the impact of the energy system demands some level of centralized coordination.	嵌入式,能量系统的规模和影响需要一定程度的集中协调.
94	One strategy here is to set deadlines for fossil asset retirements.	这里的一个策略是设定化石资产退役的最后期限.
95	Ample notice, say a decade,	注意,说十年,
96	gives communities enough time to create and implement plans, and a legislated end date	给社区足够的时间来制定和执行计划,以及法定的结束日期
97	gives people enough confidence to commit to what can be an intense process.	给人们足够的信心来致力于一个可能是一个激烈的进程。
98	I showed that in the	我在电影里表现过
99	States requiring all fossil fuel fired power generators to close by 2035, which is President	要求所有矿物燃料发射发电机在2035年前关闭的国家,总统
100	Biden's power sector decarbonization target would actually allow the large majority of them to meet	拜登的电能部门去碳化目标能够让绝大多数人实现
101	or exceed a typical lifespan, potentially giving communities some confidence that these deadlines	或超过一个典型的寿命期,有可能使社区对这些最后期限抱有某种信心。
102	are manageable.	是可管理的。
103	That may not be true in places with much newer infrastructure.	基础设施较新的地方可能并非如此。
104	And so the	所以说
105	conversation about how to choose these deadlines would look quite different.	关于如何选择这些期限的对话看起来大不相同。
106	But in general,	但总的来说,
107	being honest with people about what's coming with enough time and support to do something about it	向人们坦白地说时间和支持足够多能够有所作为
108	can be really transformative.	它可以是真正的变革。
109	But it does require a commitment to the end point and to proactively	但它确实需要承诺最终点和主动
110	ensuring people have what they need to thrive alongside transition.	确保人民在过渡的同时拥有他们需要的繁荣。
111	That is what earns and	这就是收入和
112	maintains trust, not far off emissions targets with vague implementation plans.	保持了信任,距离排放目标不远,实施计划模糊不清。
113	The alternative	备选案文
114	to unplanned transitions is unacceptable, but common.	向无计划过渡是不可接受的,但很常见。
115	Notably, this is what we would expect to	值得注意的是,这是我们期待
116	see if we just rely on clean energy becoming cheap enough to displace fossil energy systems.	看看我们是否仅仅依靠清洁能源变得足够便宜足以取代化石能源系统
117	What I've observed over the years is that facilities might close suddenly with a round	这些年来我观察到设施可能会突然关闭
118	of layoffs and a bankruptcy notification with very little notice and no plan for what comes next.	和破产通知几乎没有通知也没有下一步的计划
119	Several years ago, I was working on a survey in a coal mining community, and the morning my survey	几年前,我在煤矿社区调查早上我的调查
120	hit people's mailboxes, about 500 coal miners were suddenly laid off.	大约500名煤矿工人突然被解雇。
121	Just four U.S. coal mining	只有四个美国煤矿
122	companies used bankruptcy to avoid about $5 billion in pensions and environmental cleanup	公司利用破产避免了大约50亿美元的养老金和环境清理
123	obligations just between 2012 and 2017.	仅在2012年至2017年期间承付。
124	The coal industry in the United States is actually pretty	美国的煤炭工业其实很漂亮
125	small, now providing about 11% of primary energy, down from 18% a decade ago.	现在提供约11%的一次能源, 低于十年前的18%。
126	We're talking about	我们在谈论
127	successfully retiring and replacing infrastructure that supports 80% of energy use globally and in	成功退役和更换支持全球80%能源使用的基础设施
128	the United States, all before I reach retirement age.	在美国,所有在我到达退休年龄之前。
129	Planning the transition is an ethical	规划过渡是一种道德
130	responsibility that takes time, but also creates opportunities to implement a just and sustainable	责任需要时间,但也为执行公正和可持续
131	future that corrects the harms of the past.	未来可以纠正过去的伤害
132	Collaboration and a laser-like focus on ensuring	协作和类似激光的焦点是确保
133	people have what we need to succeed through this transition will be critical, particularly as the	人民拥有我们在过渡中取得成功所需要的东西,这是至关重要的,特别是因为
134	transition collides with climate tragedies.	过渡与气候悲剧交织在一起。
135	What would we do now if we believed we'd succeed?	如果我们相信我们会成功,那我们现在怎么办?
136	Anticipating the bumps and planning for success is the path to adjust decarbonized and sustainable	预测冲击和规划成功是调整去碳化和可持续的道路
137	word.	词
138	Thank you.	谢谢

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