何以应该生孩子？
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | I'm an exhausted dad, currently owned and dominated by two mini-dictators | 我是一个精疲力尽的父亲, 目前拥有和主导 由两个小型诉讼 |
| 0:11 | who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers. | 他用铁拳支配我的生活 却穿着哈吉斯尿布 |
| 0:16 | Now, probably because I've been drowning in small people lately, | 可能是因为我最近被小人淹死了 |
| 0:19 | I've been paying close attention to a particular headline. | 我一直在密切关注一个特定的头条。 |
| 0:23 | It seems around the world, in developed countries, | 它似乎在世界各地, 在发达国家, |
| 0:25 | people are having fewer babies. | 人们生的婴儿越来越少。 |
| 0:28 | From North America to Europe to China to Japan, | 从北美到欧洲,从中国到日本, |
| 0:30 | there's actually been an increase in the number of children | 实际上,孩子的数量有所增加 |
| 0:32 | and a consistent decline in birth rates. | 出生率持续下降。 |
| 0:34 | In fact, over the past 50 years, | 事实上 在过去50年里 |
展开字幕全文（264 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I'm an exhausted dad, currently owned and dominated by two mini-dictators | 我是一个精疲力尽的父亲, 目前拥有和主导 由两个小型诉讼 |
| 2 | who rule my life with an iron fist while wearing their Huggies diapers. | 他用铁拳支配我的生活 却穿着哈吉斯尿布 |
| 3 | Now, probably because I've been drowning in small people lately, | 可能是因为我最近被小人淹死了 |
| 4 | I've been paying close attention to a particular headline. | 我一直在密切关注一个特定的头条。 |
| 5 | It seems around the world, in developed countries, | 它似乎在世界各地, 在发达国家, |
| 6 | people are having fewer babies. | 人们生的婴儿越来越少。 |
| 7 | From North America to Europe to China to Japan, | 从北美到欧洲,从中国到日本, |
| 8 | there's actually been an increase in the number of children | 实际上,孩子的数量有所增加 |
| 9 | and a consistent decline in birth rates. | 出生率持续下降。 |
| 10 | In fact, over the past 50 years, | 事实上 在过去50年里 |
| 11 | the global fertility rate has halved. | 全球生育率减半。 |
| 12 | What the heck is going on? | 这到底是怎么回事? |
| 13 | Now, my friends who don't want kids | 现在,我的朋友 谁不想孩子 |
| 14 | all point to climate change as a reason for never having babies. | 都指出气候变化是永远不生孩子的原因。 |
| 15 | And many of you are sitting there right now saying, | 你们很多人现在都坐在那里说 |
| 16 | watch, there's also overpopulation. | 看,还有人口过多。 |
| 17 | There's also high birth rates, | 还有高出生率, |
| 18 | which still exist in many African and Middle Eastern countries. | 在许多非洲和中东国家仍然存在。 |
| 19 | There's also orphan kids who still need parents. | 还有一些孤儿仍然需要父母. |
| 20 | There's also a lack of resources to go around for everyone. | 也缺乏资源来绕过每个人. |
| 21 | And oh, by the way, | 哦,顺便说一句, |
| 22 | we have a ginormous carbon footprint that is destroying this planet. | 我们有一个巨大的碳足迹 正在摧毁这个星球。 |
| 23 | I hear you. | 我听见了 |
| 24 | And yet, despite all this chaos, | 然而,尽管这一切混乱, |
| 25 | I still think we should have babies. | 我还是觉得我们应该生孩子 |
| 26 | I believe we can and should fight for the earth and humanity side by side. | 我认为,我们可以而且应该同时为地球和人类而斗争。 |
| 27 | Now, if I could take it personal for a second, I get it. | 现在,如果我可以把它 个人的一秒钟,我明白了。 |
| 28 | I get why some of you might be skeptical about having babies. | 我知道你们为什么对生孩子持怀疑态度 |
| 29 | All right? | 好吗? |
| 30 | Here's a photo of my wife and me before we had kids. | 这是我妻子和我生孩子前的照片 |
| 31 | Young, happy, fresh. | 年轻,快乐,新鲜。 |
| 32 | Here's a photo of me after having kids. | 这是我生孩子后的照片 |
| 33 | A broken, defeated husk of a man. | 一个破碎的,被打败的人壳。 |
| 34 | Here's a photo of the car I thought I'd be driving as an adult. | 这是一张我成年时想开车的照片 |
| 35 | A Porsche. | 保时捷 |
| 36 | Here's what I actually drive. | 我开的是这个 |
| 37 | A Honda Odyssey minivan. | 本田奥德赛小货车 |
| 38 | For the minivan. | 为小车. |
| 39 | Where there was once hope, | 曾经有希望的地方 |
| 40 | now there is convenient space and good mileage. | 现在有方便的空间和良好的里程。 |
| 41 | Good mileage. | 里程不错 |
| 42 | Now, I just want to stress that I'm completely aware | 现在,我只想强调 我完全意识到 |
| 43 | of the very dire threats of global warming and climate change. | 全球变暖和气候变化的严重威胁。 |
| 44 | I just want to acknowledge that choosing to have babies | 我只想承认选择生孩子 |
| 45 | is a deeply, profoundly personal choice, | 是一个深刻,深刻的个人选择, |
| 46 | and that many who want to are unable. | 有许多人,是不能自卫的。 |
| 47 | But just for today, | 不过今天 |
| 48 | let's examine the flip side of the coin | 我们检查一下硬币的反面 |
| 49 | at how not having enough new people | 如何没有足够的新人 |
| 50 | is going to be a major problem moving forward. | 这将是一个大问题 前进。 |
| 51 | According to the World Health Organization, | 世界卫生组织认为, |
| 52 | we need to average about 2.1 children per woman today, | 我们今天需要平均每名妇女2.1个孩子 |
| 53 | just so we have enough people to replace the previous generation. | 我们有足够的人来取代前辈 |
| 54 | A lot of you thought overpopulation was going to be a problem in 100 years. | 你们很多人认为100年后人口过剩会是一个问题。 |
| 55 | Yeah, it might be underpopulation. | 是啊,这可能是人口不足。 |
| 56 | So a question. | 问曰. |
| 57 | What happens if that number dips below 2.1? | 如果数字低于2.1会怎样? |
| 58 | There's going to be a domino effect. | 将出现多米诺效应. |
| 59 | As all of us get older and live longer, | 随着我们都变老 活得更长 |
| 60 | there's going to be a shrinking younger population, | 年轻人口将会减少 |
| 61 | which is going to lead to rising labor shortages | 导致劳动力短缺 |
| 62 | in the world's biggest economies. | 在世界上最大的经济体。 |
| 63 | I'm talking about the United States, China, Japan, Germany. | 我指的是美国,中国,日本,德国. |
| 64 | Fewer younger working people means less tax revenue. | 较年轻的工人意味着税收减少。 |
| 65 | Less tax revenue means less money and resources | 税收减少意味着资金和资源减少 |
| 66 | to go to safety net programs | 进入安全网方案 |
| 67 | that all of us are going to depend upon. | 我们所有人都将依赖它。 |
| 68 | I'm talking about pensions and health care. | 我说的是养老金和医疗 |
| 69 | It seems every generation is indeed connected. | 似乎每一代人都有联系。 |
| 70 | But how the heck do we get here in the first place? | 但是我们怎么才能来这里呢? |
| 71 | Well, in some cases, it was intentional. | 在某些情况下,这是故意的。 |
| 72 | Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times. | 让我们把德罗兰号带到更简单的时代. |
| 73 | Let's stop in China, | 我们到中国去 |
| 74 | somewhere between the death of Disco and Empire Strikes Back, 1980. | 1980年迪斯科的死和帝国的反击之间 |
| 75 | In 1980, China decided to implement the one-child policy, | 1980年,中国决定实施独生子女政策. |
| 76 | largely limiting most parents to having just one kid | 大部分父母只能有一个孩子 |
| 77 | to combat overpopulation. | 对抗人口过剩。 |
| 78 | Check out some good old-fashioned Chinese propaganda. | 看看中国老式的好宣传 |
| 79 | Lovely. | 可爱 |
| 80 | Now, fast-forward to 2019. | 现在,快速前进到2019年. |
| 81 | Even after ending its one-child policy in 2015, | 即使在2015年结束其独生子女政策之后, |
| 82 | China's birth rates have largely declined. | 中国的出生率基本下降. |
| 83 | In fact, the falling population in China | 事实上,中国人口下降 |
| 84 | is removing one of its biggest drivers of growth, people. | 正在消除它增长的最大动力之一,人。 |
| 85 | If trends continue, | 如果趋势继续下去, |
| 86 | China's population is actually going to peak in 2029 | 2029年中国人口实际上将达到顶峰 |
| 87 | before entering quote, unstoppable decline. | 在输入引用前,不可停止的递减。 |
| 88 | China's government is so freaked out right now | 中国政府现在吓坏了 |
| 89 | that it's actually doing new propaganda. | 它实际上在做新的宣传。 |
| 90 | It's begging couples to have children for the country. | 是求夫妇为国生子. |
| 91 | Let's take the DeLorean and hop over to Japan, | 让我们带着德罗琳号去日本 |
| 92 | home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan. | 我亲爱的本田奥德赛小货车的家 |
| 93 | Japan is now producing more adult diapers than infant ones. | 日本现在生产的成人尿布比婴儿尿布多。 |
| 94 | The number of kids in Japan has fallen for the 37th straight year. | 日本儿童人数连续37年下降. |
| 95 | And unlike other countries, | 不像其他国家 |
| 96 | it has not been able to replace its population numbers | 它一直未能取代其人口数量 |
| 97 | through immigrant workers. | 通过移民工人。 |
| 98 | There will be labor shortages | 会有劳动力短缺 |
| 99 | and not enough money to fund the safety net programs. | 没有足够的钱资助安全网方案。 |
| 100 | Now, Japan has introduced two solutions. | 现在,日本提出了两个解决办法。 |
| 101 | First, a financial incentive. | 一,财政奖励. |
| 102 | Some local governments in Japan have offered couples money to have babies, | 日本一些地方政府提供夫妇钱来生孩子, |
| 103 | with the money increasing with each additional child being born. | 钱会随着每个孩子的出生而增加 |
| 104 | This actually worked for one year in 2014 in this town called Ama. | 这实际上在2014年在这个叫阿玛的小镇工作了一年. |
| 105 | It actually raised the birth rate from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8. | 这实际上将出生率从每个妇女约1.66个孩子提高到1.8个孩子. |
| 106 | But it did not gain traction across Japan. | 但并没有在日本各地获得动力。 |
| 107 | In 2018, a leader of Japan's ruling party tried a new tack. | 2018年,日本执政党领导人试制新塔克. |
| 108 | He told young people, | 他告诉年轻人, |
| 109 | you're selfish for not having babies. | 你因为没有孩子而自私 |
| 110 | Shockingly, shaming was not a rousing aphrodisiac. | 令人吃惊的是,羞辱不是一个令人发指的恶作剧。 |
| 111 | Surprise, I know, surprise. | 惊讶,我知道,惊喜。 |
| 112 | Who would have thought? | 谁能想到呢? |
| 113 | Let's take the DeLorean to Europe, | 让我们带德罗兰人去欧洲 |
| 114 | the continent of delicious cheeses I love to eat but cannot pronounce. | 充满美味奶酪的大陆 我喜欢吃,但不能发音。 |
| 115 | The UK and much of Western Europe | 联合王国和西欧大部分地区 |
| 116 | has a birth rate of about 1.7 kids per woman, | 生育率约为每个妇女1.7个孩子, |
| 117 | which at least is better than Hungary, | 这至少比匈牙利更好, |
| 118 | where it hovers around 1.45. | 在那里它徘徊在1.45左右。 |
| 119 | Now, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban | 现在,匈牙利总理维克多·奥尔班 |
| 120 | has proposed a new solution to try to incentivize people to have kids. | 已经提出了一个新的解决方案,试图激励人们生孩子。 |
| 121 | He said families where the women have four or more kids | 他说有四个或四个以上孩子的家庭 |
| 122 | will no longer pay income tax. | 将不再缴纳所得税。 |
| 123 | Pretty good, right? | 不错吧? |
| 124 | Right? | 对吧? |
| 125 | Pretty good. | 不错 |
| 126 | At least it's better than Russia's 2007 proposal, | 至少比俄罗斯2007年的提案要好 |
| 127 | which once offered women in a particular region | 曾经为特定地区妇女提供 |
| 128 | the opportunity of winning a fridge if they had more kids. | 有机会赢得一个冰箱,如果他们有更多的孩子。 |
| 129 | Yeah, it didn't work. | 是啊,它没有工作。 |
| 130 | It didn't work. | 没有用 |
| 131 | But hold on, pump the brakes. | 但坚持住,泵制动。 |
| 132 | Orban主要提议 | |
| 133 | because he wants to limit the population of Muslims and people of color. | 因为他想限制穆斯林和有色人种的人口 |
| 134 | He says he doesn't think Hungary's traditions and culture and color | 他说他不认为匈牙利的传统、文化、肤色 |
| 135 | has to be, quote, | 必须是,引用, |
| 136 | mixed with those of others. | 和别人混在一起 |
| 137 | Subtle. | 细细. |
| 138 | Unfortunately for Orban and much of the EU, | 对欧班和欧盟大部分地区来说, |
| 139 | the birth rates are not high enough right now | 现在的出生率还不够高 |
| 140 | to be replenished without immigration. | 在没有移民的情况下补充。 |
| 141 | Among EU countries, there is a demographic decline. | 在欧盟国家中,人口呈下降趋势。 |
| 142 | So it seems in Europe, karma is going to be brown and Muslim. | 看来在欧洲,因果报应会是棕色的和穆斯林的. |
| 143 | Just saying. | 只是说说而已 |
| 144 | The question remains, | 问题仍然是: |
| 145 | why aren't people having enough kids? | 为什么人们没有足够的孩子? |
| 146 | Why is the birth rate declining in these countries? | 这些国家为什么出生率下降? |
| 147 | In some cases, it's because women are more literate, more educated. | 在某些情况下,这是因为妇女识字程度较高,受教育程度较高. |
| 148 | They have more economic opportunities. | 他们有更多的经济机会。 |
| 149 | Please applaud. | 请鼓掌。 |
| 150 | All good things. | 一切善财. |
| 151 | Yes, all good things. | 是的,所有好东西。 |
| 152 | In India, this has been fantastic. | 在印度,这是太棒了。 |
| 153 | It has actually reduced the birth rate, | 它实际上降低了出生率, |
| 154 | but kept it above that magic 2.1 number. | 但保持它高于魔法2.1的数字。 |
| 155 | Women also have more access to birth control, | 妇女还可以更多地接受节育; |
| 156 | more control over their reproductive lives. | 更能控制他们的生育生活 |
| 157 | All good things. | 一切善财. |
| 158 | But in the United States in particular, | 但在美国尤其如此, |
| 159 | a lot of young people who are opting out of having kids | 很多选择不生孩子的年轻人 |
| 160 | largely cite the same reason. | 大部分理由相同。 |
| 161 | Financial concerns. | 财务问题。 |
| 162 | Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland, | 让我们把德罗兰人带到我的祖国, |
| 163 | the United States of America, | 美利坚合众国, |
| 164 | where the birth rate hit its historic low in 2017. | 其中出生率在2017年达到历史最低点。 |
| 165 | The United States is the most expensive country in the world | 美国是世界上最昂贵的国家 |
| 166 | to give birth. | 来生孩子 |
| 167 | If you do not have insurance, | 如果你没有保险, |
| 168 | it will cost you $32,000 to have a baby | 生孩子要花32000块 |
| 169 | if everything goes perfectly. | 如果一切都顺利的话 |
| 170 | That's like buying a brand-new Honda Odyssey minivan, OK? | 这就像买一辆全新的本田奥德赛小货车,好吗? |
| 171 | So congratulations, you just had a baby, | 恭喜你刚刚生了个孩子 |
| 172 | but the baby's economic productivity is zero. | 但婴儿的经济生产力是零。 |
| 173 | And guess what? | 你猜怎么着? |
| 174 | The United States is the only industrialized country in the world | 美国是世界上唯一的工业化国家 |
| 175 | that does not require employers to offer paid parental leave. | 无需雇主提供带薪育儿假。 |
| 176 | Mom, you just had a baby. | 妈妈,你刚生了个孩子 |
| 177 | Congratulations. | 祝贺你 |
| 178 | That's lovely. | 真可爱 |
| 179 | Get back to work! | 继续工作! |
| 180 | Or you're fired, young mom. | 或者你被解雇了,年轻的妈妈。 |
| 181 | My wife and I, both working parents, | 我妻子和我 双职工父母 |
| 182 | pay about $3,500 a month, | 每月付三千五百块 |
| 183 | a month in Virginia, for childcare. | 在弗吉尼亚州呆一个月 照顾孩子 |
| 184 | If you do the math, that's $40,000 a year. | 如果你算算的话,每年是4万元 |
| 185 | That's like buying a brand-new souped-up Honda Odyssey minivan, OK? | 就像买辆全新汤汤的本田奥德赛小货车 |
| 186 | I have one. | 我有一个。 |
| 187 | I do not need 10. | 我不需要10个 |
| 188 | So here's my bold suggestion. | 因此,这是我大胆的建议。 |
| 189 | Let's make it easier for people to have babies. | 令众生得方便. |
| 190 | It seems in order to invest in our future, | 为了投资我们的未来 |
| 191 | we actually have to invest in the present | 我们实际上必须投资于现在 |
| 192 | and help those people who want to become parents. | 帮助那些想成为父母的人 |
| 193 | Give them affordable health care. | 为他们提供负担得起的保健。 |
| 194 | Give them affordable childcare. | 给他们买得起的托儿服务。 |
| 195 | Give them paid parental leave. | 给他们带薪育儿假。 |
| 196 | Among the EU states in 2017, | 在2017年的欧盟国家中, |
| 197 | France reported the highest birth rates. | 法国报告出生率最高。 |
| 198 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 199 | Largely due to its pronatal policies | 主要由于其产前政策 |
| 200 | that actually kept women in the workforce. | 让女性继续工作 |
| 201 | I'm talking about subsidized daycare and paid maternal leave. | 我说的是补贴日托和带薪产假。 |
| 202 | China and Japan, thank God, are finally wisening up | 感谢上帝,中国和日本终于明智了 |
| 203 | and proposing such policies. | 并提出此类政策。 |
| 204 | This is great. | 这是伟大的。 |
| 205 | That being said, I know some of you have listened to me, | 这么说吧,我知道你们中有些人听我的 |
| 206 | and you still think the best investment we can make in the future | 你仍然认为我们在未来能做的最好的投资 |
| 207 | is not having babies. | 没有孩子。 |
| 208 | I respect that. | 我尊重这一点。 |
| 209 | I get where you're coming from. | 我得到你从哪里来。 |
| 210 | And I know many of you in this audience want to have babies, | 我知道在座的很多人都想生孩子 |
| 211 | but you are terrified about the future. | 但你害怕未来 |
| 212 | And as a parent, I feel you. | 作为父母,我感觉到你 |
| 213 | I'm scared about the future. | 我害怕未来 |
| 214 | I wrote that last line a month ago, | 我一个月前写了最后一行 |
| 215 | but it really hit home three days ago for me | 但三天前,它真的击中了家 |
| 216 | 当我在TED。 | |
| 217 | Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying. | 三天前,我老婆打电话给我,哭着 |
| 218 | I pick it up in my hotel room, | 我在酒店房间捡的 |
| 219 | and she said, I'm calling from the hospital, | 她说 我在医院打电话 |
| 220 | we had to take my baby daughter Nuseba, | 我们不得不带走我的女儿努塞巴, |
| 221 | who's named after a warrior princess, | 以战士公主的名字命名的 |
| 222 | to the hospital because she found a bump on the stomach. | 去医院是因为她胃部被撞伤了 |
| 223 | We got back the results, | 我们得到了结果, |
| 224 | and there were bumps all around her liver. | 她的肝脏周围都出现了突起 |
| 225 | Today, this morning, | 今天,今天上午, |
| 226 | we found out that she has stage four liver cancer. | 我们发现她得了第四级肝癌 |
| 227 | It has been a challenging week. | 这是一个具有挑战性的星期。 |
| 228 | And if I may, I just want to take a moment | 如果可以的话,我只想花点时间 |
| 229 | to acknowledge the TED staff, | 感谢TED工作人员, |
| 230 | everyone top down, | 所有人上楼, |
| 231 | everyone in the back, in the green room, | 每个人都在后面, 在绿色的房间, |
| 232 | some of the speakers, the word has spread. | 有些发言者,这个词已经传播。 |
| 233 | On behalf of my family, my wife and my parents, | 代表我的家人,我的妻子和我的父母, |
| 234 | my Pakistani parents that I had to say this, | 我的父母,我不得不说, |
| 235 | thank you for just being decent and kind this week. | 谢谢你这周的正直和善良 |
| 236 | So thank you, thank you. | 谢谢,谢谢 |
| 237 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 238 | These are my beloveds, | 这些是我的爱人, |
| 239 | my Ibrahim and Nuseba, | 我的易卜拉欣和努塞巴, |
| 240 | my babies. | 我的宝贝们 |
| 241 | I talked to my wife, | 我和我妻子谈过了 |
| 242 | and despite the terrible news and the fight ahead, | 尽管有可怕的消息和战斗, |
| 243 | we both concluded that we regret nothing. | 我们都认为我们没什么遗憾 |
| 244 | Deciding to have babies was the best decision we ever made. | 决定生孩子是我们做过的最好决定 |
| 245 | Our babies have brought us so much joy, | 我们的孩子带给我们这么多的快乐, |
| 246 | and they've brought the world so much joy. | 他们给世界带来了很多快乐 |
| 247 | And having kids is a risk, | 生孩子是一种风险, |
| 248 | but life is a risk. | 但生命是一种风险。 |
| 249 | And yes, I hope you've been paying attention. | 是的,我希望你一直关注。 |
| 250 | We need to invest in babies in developed countries | 我们需要投资 在发达国家的婴儿 |
| 251 | if we want to help save our economy and pensions. | 如果我们想拯救我们的经济和养老金 |
| 252 | But that's not the reason you have babies. | 但这不是你生孩子的原因 |
| 253 | That's not the main reason. | 这不是主要原因。 |
| 254 | Babies have always represented humanity's best, | 婴儿总是代表人类最好的, |
| 255 | boldest, most beautiful, infinite possibilities. | 最大胆 最美丽 无限的可能性 |
| 256 | And if we in developed countries, as a whole, | 如果我们在发达国家,作为一个整体, |
| 257 | opt out and don't invest in present and future generations, | 选择退出,不要投资 当代和后代, |
| 258 | then what the hell is the point? | 那到底有什么意义? |
| 259 | What's the point of being on this absurd journey together? | 这段荒谬的旅程有什么意义? |
| 260 | And so, for those who can and who choose to, | 所以,对于那些能够和选择, |
| 261 | for those who can and who choose to have kids, | 那些能够和选择生育的人, |
| 262 | may you pass on this beautiful thing called life | 愿你传承这美丽的东西 生命 |
| 263 | with kindness, generosity, decency and love. | 以仁慈、慷慨、正直和爱心 |
| 264 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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