马斯克与OpenAI决裂：一场万亿美元AI权力战
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Hello, welcome to AI Decoded. | 你好,欢迎来到AI代码。 |
| 0:03 | Two battles this week, thousands of miles apart, | 这周的两场战役 相隔数千英里 |
| 0:07 | that could well shape the future of artificial intelligence. | 这完全可以塑造人工智能的未来。 |
| 0:10 | First, the courtroom drama in Oakland, California. | 首先,加州奥克兰的法庭剧. |
| 0:14 | Elon Musk accused Sam Altman of stealing a charity. | 埃隆·穆斯克指责萨姆·阿尔特曼盗窃了一个慈善机构. |
| 0:18 | The world's richest man said he had donated nearly $38 million | 全世界最有钱的人说他捐了近三千八百万 |
| 0:22 | to OpenAI on the basis it would be run as a non-profit, | 将它作为非营利组织运作, |
| 0:26 | for the good of all humanity. | 为了全人类的利益。 |
| 0:28 | Instead, Altman commercialised it and built it into a company | 相反,阿尔特曼将其商业化并建为一家公司 |
| 0:32 | worth a trillion dollars. | 价值一万亿. |
展开字幕全文（482 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hello, welcome to AI Decoded. | 你好,欢迎来到AI代码。 |
| 2 | Two battles this week, thousands of miles apart, | 这周的两场战役 相隔数千英里 |
| 3 | that could well shape the future of artificial intelligence. | 这完全可以塑造人工智能的未来。 |
| 4 | First, the courtroom drama in Oakland, California. | 首先,加州奥克兰的法庭剧. |
| 5 | Elon Musk accused Sam Altman of stealing a charity. | 埃隆·穆斯克指责萨姆·阿尔特曼盗窃了一个慈善机构. |
| 6 | The world's richest man said he had donated nearly $38 million | 全世界最有钱的人说他捐了近三千八百万 |
| 7 | to OpenAI on the basis it would be run as a non-profit, | 将它作为非营利组织运作, |
| 8 | for the good of all humanity. | 为了全人类的利益。 |
| 9 | Instead, Altman commercialised it and built it into a company | 相反,阿尔特曼将其商业化并建为一家公司 |
| 10 | worth a trillion dollars. | 价值一万亿. |
| 11 | The jury ruled against Musk, not because he was wrong, | 陪审团对穆斯克不利 并不是因为他错了 |
| 12 | but because in their view he'd waited too long to say so. | 但因为他们认为他等了太久才这么说 |
| 13 | In the final days of that hearing, Musk abandoned the court | 在庭审的最后几天,穆斯克放弃了法庭 |
| 14 | and headed for Beijing to join President Trump | 并前往北京加入川普总统 |
| 15 | at his high-stakes summit with President Xi. | 在他与习主席的高层峰会上 |
| 16 | Because while the court case was important to who controls | 因为法庭的案子对谁控制 |
| 17 | and steers the most powerful AI companies on Earth, | 并指导地球上最强大的AI公司, |
| 18 | the bigger battle in China was over who controls the chips | 中国最大的战役 已经结束了 谁控制芯片 |
| 19 | that power AI itself. | 那权力AI本身。 |
| 20 | Darrell Flack is a government adviser on cyber security. | 达雷尔·弗莱克是一名网络安全方面的政府顾问. |
| 21 | He spent 25 years defending the UK's national interests | 他花了25年维护英国的国家利益 |
| 22 | and he is the co-founder of Avella Security. | 他是阿维拉保安公司的共同创始人 |
| 23 | Nina Shang has written several books on the AI industry in China, | 尼娜·翔在中国写了几本关于AI产业的著作, |
| 24 | Red AI and the US-China tech war, | 红色AI和美中科技战争, |
| 25 | and also with us our regular co-host Dr Stephanie Hare, | 也和我们一起共同主持史蒂芬妮·海尔博士 |
| 26 | author of Technology Is Not Neutral. | 技术不是中立的作者。 |
| 27 | Welcome to you all. | 欢迎大家光临 |
| 28 | Darrell, Sam Altman is now free to cement his commercial control of OpenAI, | 达雷尔,萨姆·阿尔特曼现在可以自由巩固他对OpenAI的商业控制, |
| 29 | which appears headed towards one of the biggest IPOs that we've seen. | 似乎朝我们见过的最大的IPO之一前进 |
| 30 | The company is free to pursue a data centre expansion | 公司可以自由扩展数据中心 |
| 31 | that could cost hundreds of billions of dollars. | 这可能花费数千亿美元。 |
| 32 | So on the face of it, this verdict in Oakland, California this week | 所以从表面上看,本周加州奥克兰的这个判决 |
| 33 | was hugely consequential. | 后果非常严重 |
| 34 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 35 | I think it was a win-win all round for Team OpenAI. | 我想这是OpenAI队的双赢 |
| 36 | I think Musk was looking for $150 billion in damages. | 我认为穆斯克正在寻找 1500亿美元的损失。 |
| 37 | He was looking to have Altman removed from the board | 他想让Altman离开董事会 |
| 38 | and he was looking to unwind all of that commercial structure around that | 他正想把那些商业结构 解开 |
| 39 | and he failed on all of those counts. | 在所有这些罪名上他都失败了 |
| 40 | Then that doesn't mean that OpenAI wasn't guilty, | 那并不意味着OpenAI无罪 |
| 41 | it just means by the statute of limitations | 它只是根据诉讼时效 |
| 42 | Musk left it too late to take it to court. | 穆斯克留下了太迟,没有将其告上法庭. |
| 43 | So overall if you're Sam Altman right now, | 所以,总的来说,如果你是萨姆阿尔特曼 现在, |
| 44 | you're sitting in a very good position and you're quite happy with that outcome. | 你坐在一个非常好的位置上 你对结果很满意 |
| 45 | He says he will appeal and maybe he does have a case | 他说他会上诉 也许他有案子 |
| 46 | because we know that they did create this commercial arm | 因为我们知道 他们确实创造了这个商业臂 |
| 47 | which has become hugely profitable. | 这已经变得非常有利可图。 |
| 48 | But maybe in the eyes of the jury, | 但也许在陪审团看来 |
| 49 | Elon Musk, the richest man in the world, is the wrong person to make the argument. | 世界上最富有的人埃隆·穆斯克(Elon Musk)是提出争论的错人. |
| 50 | I think when he also spoke to OpenAI around 2018, | 我想当他也在2018年左右和OpenAI谈话时 |
| 51 | he was looking for Tesla to buy a stake | 他在找特斯拉买个木桩 |
| 52 | which isn't a charity. | 这不是慈善机构。 |
| 53 | So I think when you've got a sense of direction that you want to take | 所以我想当你有方向感的时候 |
| 54 | what started out as a charity to be a commercial organisation | 最初的慈善机构是商业组织 |
| 55 | and then you get removed from that board or you leave that board | 然后从板子上移除 否则就离开板子 |
| 56 | and it subsequently gets taken to Microsoft. | 之后被带去微软公司 |
| 57 | When you go back many years later to Cry Foul, | 当你回到很多年后去哭Foul, |
| 58 | I think many on the jury would have seen that | 我觉得陪审团里有很多人会看到 |
| 59 | and thought actually it's just sour grapes. | 还以为只是酸葡萄 |
| 60 | Nina, obviously the focus is on these very big personalities, | 妮娜,很明显 重点是这些大人物 |
| 61 | Elon Musk and Sam Altman, | 伊隆·穆斯克和萨姆·阿尔特曼 |
| 62 | which is interesting in and of itself to the rest of us. | 这本身对我们其他人来说是有趣的。 |
| 63 | But this verdict is a very important win for Microsoft too | 但这个判决对微软来说也是很重要的 |
| 64 | because they are closely entwined with OpenAI | 因为他们与OpenAI密不可分。 |
| 65 | and that relationship is crucial to their AI development. | 这种关系对于他们的人工智能发展至关重要。 |
| 66 | Yes, this is clearly good for OpenAI and Microsoft | 是的,这显然对OpenAI和微软有好处 |
| 67 | because it removes a huge cloud of uncertainty | 因为它消除了巨大的不确定性云 |
| 68 | handing over an important partnership. | 交出重要的伙伴关系。 |
| 69 | But it's also not that bad for Elon Musk. | 但对伊隆·穆斯克来说也没那么糟糕. |
| 70 | Like you say, the world's richest man and SpaceX valuation continues to soar. | 就像你说的,世界上最富有的人 和SpaceX的估值继续飙升。 |
| 71 | So I guess we don't have to shed tears for both of them. | 所以我想我们不用为两人流泪 |
| 72 | Now that's a really interesting point. | 这是一个非常有趣的问题。 |
| 73 | 我觉得这个行业很大 Stephanie | |
| 74 | sometimes tries to portray this united front | 有时试图描绘统一战线 |
| 75 | when it comes to AI, to safety, to research, to inclusivity. | 当涉及到AI,安全,研究,包容。 |
| 76 | But this case served as a very powerful reminder to all of us | 但这个案子非常有力地提醒了我们所有人 |
| 77 | that AI giants are not charities. | AI巨头不是慈善机构 |
| 78 | They're not there for the good of humanity. | 他们不是为了人类的利益 |
| 79 | They are in it for the money and it is fierce competition. | 他们是为了钱,而这是激烈的竞争。 |
| 80 | Yeah, I mean, we saw this recently at the last AI Summit in India | 是啊,我的意思是,我们看到这一点 最近在印度上次AI峰会 |
| 81 | where Sam Altman would not hold hands at the end | 萨姆·阿尔特曼终究不会牵手 |
| 82 | when all the leaders held hands with Anthropics CEO Dario Amodei. | 当所有的领袖们与人类学首席执行官达里奥·阿莫代握手时. |
| 83 | They refused to hold hands. | 他们拒绝牵手。 |
| 84 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 85 | They couldn't even do that. | 他们甚至不能做到这一点。 |
| 86 | So they are fiercely competing for market share | 所以他们激烈争夺市场份额 |
| 87 | to see who's going to have the best model and even for who's a verb. | 看看谁会有最佳的模特儿 甚至是动词 |
| 88 | So if you think about it, when you say I'm going to just check it up on chat GPT, | 所以,如果你考虑一下,当你说 我要只是检查它 通过聊天GPT, |
| 89 | what most people mean by that is I'm just going to use generative AI, | 大多数人的意思是 我只是要使用基因AI, |
| 90 | but chat GPT is a verb like I'm going to Google it, you know? | 但是聊天GPT就像我要谷歌一样 |
| 91 | So who's going to be the one that becomes the trusted partner for enterprise? | 那么谁会成为企业的可靠合伙人呢? |
| 92 | But also in culture, in popular culture, | 在文化界,大众文化界, |
| 93 | when you think generative AI, who do you think? | 当你认为基因AI, 你觉得是谁? |
| 94 | And the question I'd love to ask with Nina joining us today is | 我想问一个问题 与尼娜今天加入我们 |
| 95 | in the United States, we often hear regulation will hinder innovation | 在美国 我们经常听到监管会阻碍创新 |
| 96 | and then China will win. | 然后中国就会赢 |
| 97 | Is there a parallel conversation happening in China? | 中国有没有平行对话?. |
| 98 | Are they saying if we don't stop regulating so much, | 他们说如果我们不停止管制这么多 |
| 99 | the United States will just have this lead that we will never upset? | 美国只会有这个线索 我们永远不会生气? |
| 100 | Nina? | 妮娜吗? |
| 101 | What's the view there? | 风景如何? |
| 102 | I would say perhaps not so much in China | 我想说在中国也许没那么多 |
| 103 | in terms of having regulation which hinder technology's advances. | 在管理上阻碍技术的进步。 |
| 104 | I feel like the Chinese government definitely feel they are in the driver's seat | 我觉得中国政府肯定觉得他们是司机 |
| 105 | and they have this God's view on China's tech development | 他们有上帝对中国科技发展的看法 |
| 106 | as well as their citizens' well-being. | 以及他们的公民的福祉。 |
| 107 | And they have moved very quickly to issue laws | 并且他们很快地 颁布了法律 |
| 108 | banning youth from using addictive social media apps. | 禁止青少年使用上瘾社交媒体应用. |
| 109 | But also, as you remember, several years back, banning youth from playing internet games. | 但正如你所记得的,几年前, 禁止青年玩网络游戏。 |
| 110 | So I think Beijing is more concerned in terms of AI competition | 所以我觉得北京更关心AI的竞争 |
| 111 | as a national key strategic industry | 作为国家关键战略产业 |
| 112 | and also in the perspective of national security. | 还从国家安全的角度出发。 |
| 113 | But regulation, they feel, is not something that hinders development | 但他们觉得 监管不是阻碍发展的东西 |
| 114 | but rather could overall improve society's well-being. | 但总的来讲可以改善社会的福祉。 |
| 115 | But let's be honest. | 但是,让我们说实话。 |
| 116 | Donald Trump would have loved this fight this week. | 唐纳德·特朗普本周会喜欢这场比赛的 |
| 117 | He's all about making money. | 以财为业. |
| 118 | That's what drives him. | 这才是他的动力 |
| 119 | The drag he takes is let's have more of this, | 他的拖累是让我们有更多这样的, |
| 120 | this competition that expands American competition. | 这个竞争扩大了美国的竞争。 |
| 121 | Except there are more than 60 loyal allies who've written to the White House this week | 除了这周给白宫写过信的 六十多个忠诚的盟友 |
| 122 | within the MAGA movement, and Steve Bannon is one of them, | 在MAGA运动中,史蒂夫·班农是其中之一, |
| 123 | saying that he wants more rigorous testing of the sort of pre-flight models of AI | 说他想更严格地测试AI的飞行前模型 |
| 124 | because they pose such a risk. | 因为他们有这样的风险。 |
| 125 | So it seems to me that while Trump is driving the commercialization of the industry, | 因此,在我看来,当特朗普 驱动产业商业化, |
| 126 | the White House policy on this is at odds with the MAGA base. | 白宫的政策 与MAGA基地不一致。 |
| 127 | There's a deep, deep irony here, | 这里有一个深刻的,深刻的讽刺, |
| 128 | which is that the company that's probably the leading AI company | 可能是AI公司领先的公司 |
| 129 | 在美国的AI安全,这是Anthropic, | |
| 130 | was itself declared a security risk, a supply chain risk, by Donald Trump, right? | 被唐纳德·特朗普宣布为安全风险,供应链风险,对吧? |
| 131 | And that was the first company that was in the US classified systems. | 这是第一个在美国机密系统中的公司。 |
| 132 | It's being used in Iran, etc. | 现用于伊朗等地. |
| 133 | Still being used. | 仍在使用中. |
| 134 | Still being used right now because you can't just pull that stuff out | 现在还在被利用 因为你不能把那些东西拿出来 |
| 135 | just because somebody wakes up one day and decides to declare you a supply chain risk. | 就因为有一天有人醒来 决定宣布你为供应链风险 |
| 136 | But what's also really interesting | 但真正有趣的东西 |
| 137 | and perhaps explains the change in position of Steve Bannon and other Trump advisors | 并可能解释史蒂夫·班农和其他特朗普顾问的立场变化 |
| 138 | is that Anthropic itself had to convene a group of other tech companies | 是Anthropic自己不得不召集 一组其他技术公司 |
| 139 | and say, we have created something called Mythos, | 你说:我们创造了一种称为神话的东西, |
| 140 | which is so powerful and so dangerous | 如此强大而危险 |
| 141 | that it could reveal all of the vulnerabilities that everybody's got around the world. | 它可以揭示世界各地每个人的弱点。 |
| 142 | We're talking banking, we're talking utilities, we're talking weapons. | 我们谈论的是银行,我们谈论的是公用事业,我们谈论的是武器. |
| 143 | And we can surface those errors before people have a chance to patch them. | 我们可以在人们有机会弥补这些错误之前发现这些错误。 |
| 144 | So this is the nightmare scenario. | 这就是噩梦的情景。 |
| 145 | So it was a private company, Anthropic, that convened this meeting, | 是一家私人公司Anthropic召集了这次会议 |
| 146 | has been very safely... | 已经非常安全... |
| 147 | Not the regulator. | 不是监管者。 |
| 148 | Yeah, they were doing a regulator's job. | 是的,他们在做一个监管者的工作。 |
| 149 | They might have a commercial interest for doing that. | 他们这样做可能具有商业利益。 |
| 150 | Exactly, but they were doing a regulator's job. | 没错,但他们在做监管者的工作 |
| 151 | And the deep irony is they were doing it | 讽刺的是,他们这样做 |
| 152 | while themselves being declared a supply chain risk by the White House. | 却被白宫宣布为供应链风险 |
| 153 | But suddenly we're all talking about Claude and Mythos. | 但突然间我们都在谈论克劳德和神话 |
| 154 | And as I say, he'd fly a kite saying, this is dangerous. | 正如我所说,他会放风筝说,这很危险。 |
| 155 | This is far-reaching. | 这影响深远。 |
| 156 | It's a great marketing tool. | 这是一个伟大的营销工具。 |
| 157 | It's a great marketing tool, yeah. | 这是一个伟大的营销工具,是的。 |
| 158 | But do you buy into some of that, the concerns? | 但是,你买 在一些,担心? |
| 159 | I think there's absolute concerns there. | 我想那里绝对有问题 |
| 160 | I think AI is going to change the landscape | 我觉得AI会改变风景 |
| 161 | when it comes to identifying vulnerabilities and how you patch them. | 当它涉及到识别弱点 和如何弥补它们。 |
| 162 | So absolutely it is going to create a much faster timeframe | 所以绝对会创造更快的时间 |
| 163 | for organisations to be able to be aware | 组织能够意识到 |
| 164 | and to enact some of the changes they're going to need to change. | 并颁布一些 他们需要改变。 |
| 165 | But I think doing what they did | 但我认为他们做了什么 |
| 166 | and inviting only the cool people in the tent, | 并只邀请在帐棚里的帅人们, |
| 167 | they chose the tech companies of the products | 他们选择了产品技术公司 |
| 168 | that they wanted to have in their group. | 他们想在他们的团体中拥有。 |
| 169 | And whilst you could say that it's altruistic | 你可以说这是利他主义 |
| 170 | that they're trying to protect the world, | 他们试图保护世界, |
| 171 | equally they're trying to create a top tier of tech companies | 同样地,他们正在尝试 创建顶级技术公司 |
| 172 | that have this information that can patch vulnerabilities the fastest. | 拥有这个信息,可以快速补上弱点。 |
| 173 | So where does that leave anybody who's not at that top table? | 那么,谁不在最上层? |
| 174 | Anyone else who wants to create one? | 还有谁想创造? |
| 175 | A critical infrastructure for a start. | 启动的关键基础设施。 |
| 176 | If OpenAI was launched for the good of humanity, | 如果OpenAI是为人类的利益而推出的 |
| 177 | there's clearly a long way to go to convince the public | 要说服公众显然还有很长的路要走 |
| 178 | that that's what AI companies are doing. | AI公司就是这样做的。 |
| 179 | Axios published a poll this week | Axios本周公布民意调查 |
| 180 | which tells us fundamentally people are turning against AI. | 这告诉我们人们根本上反对AI。 |
| 181 | Over 70% of Americans think it's moving too fast. | 超过70%的美国人认为移动速度过快. |
| 182 | Negative views have doubled in just three years. | 在短短三年时间里,负面观点增加了一倍。 |
| 183 | Only 18% of young people say they feel hopeful about it. | 只有18%的年轻人说他们对此抱有希望. |
| 184 | If AI were a candidate for political office, says Axios, | 如果AI是政治职位的候选人 Axios说 |
| 185 | it would be losing in a landslide. | 山体滑坡时会输掉 |
| 186 | And this court case ain't going to help. | 而这个法庭的案子也帮不了你 |
| 187 | No. | 没有 |
| 188 | I mean it is interesting that many of these AI companies, | 有趣的是,很多这些AI公司, |
| 189 | their CEOs have been writing these very long essays | 他们的CEO一直在写这些很长的论文 |
| 190 | that they'd like to publish to great fanfare | 他们想出版给伟大的粉丝 |
| 191 | saying we're going to wipe out most white collar jobs | 说我们要消灭大多数白领工作 |
| 192 | within 18 months, two years tops. | 在18个月之内,最多两年。 |
| 193 | And then expect people to be happy about that news, right? | 然后期待人们会为这个消息高兴,对吧? |
| 194 | And in the United States there's another exacerbating factor | 在美国还有另一个因素 |
| 195 | which is if you go to university there, | 如果你在那里上大学, |
| 196 | you could very conceivably walk out with a six-figure debt. | 你能想象地带着六位数的债务走出去 |
| 197 | So you've got to get a job and start earning | 所以,你必须找到工作,开始赚钱 |
| 198 | and paying off that debt straight away. | 立即还清债务 |
| 199 | So no, you're not going to enjoy AI, | 所以,不,你不会享受AI, |
| 200 | which yes, may have helped you with your homework | 是的,也许有助于你的功课 |
| 201 | or something that's convenient or a bit of fun making memes, | 或一些方便的东西 或一点点的乐趣 制作迷因, |
| 202 | but if it's making it where you can't have a career path | 但是,如果它使它 在那里你不能有一个职业路径 |
| 203 | and you can't imagine ever being able to afford a home, | 你无法想象能买得起房子 |
| 204 | have a family, like not being able to earn | 有个家庭,好像没钱挣 |
| 205 | makes people feel very insecure | 让人觉得很不安全 |
| 206 | so they make different decisions. | 所以他们做出不同的决定。 |
| 207 | We've seen that particularly with this younger generation. | 我们特别看到这个年轻一代。 |
| 208 | They already weren't feeling hopeful. | 他们已经没有希望了 |
| 209 | And now we've added this. | 现在又加了这个 |
| 210 | Can I show you all this? | 我能给你看这些吗? |
| 211 | This is a clip that went viral this past week. | 这段是上周的病毒 |
| 212 | It features one of the guest speakers at a graduation ceremony | 毕业典礼上的特邀演讲者之一 |
| 213 | at the University of Central Florida. | 在佛罗里达中部大学 |
| 214 | And she began by telling her students | 她开始告诉学生 |
| 215 | that AI will be the next industrial revolution. | AI将是下一个工业革命。 |
| 216 | Just watch the reaction. | 注意反应 |
| 217 | The rise of artificial intelligence | 人工智能的兴起 |
| 218 | is the next industrial revolution. | 是下一个工业革命。 |
| 219 | Oh, I struck a chord. | 哦,我打了一个和弦。 |
| 220 | So today we stand on this edge | 所以今天我们站在这个边缘 |
| 221 | of another technological transformation, | 另一种技术变革, |
| 222 | one that will be larger, faster, | 一个更大,更快的, |
| 223 | and more consequential than what came before. | 并且比以前更严重。 |
| 224 | It will touch every profession, every classroom, | 它会触及每一个职业,每一个教室, |
| 225 | every hospital, every laboratory, | 每个医院,每个实验室, |
| 226 | every person and every relationship you have. | 每个人 和你的一切关系 |
| 227 | I know what many of you are feeling about that. | 我知道你们很多人对此有什么感觉。 |
| 228 | I can hear you. | 我听得见 |
| 229 | There is a fear. | 有一种恐惧。 |
| 230 | There is a fear in your generation | 你们这代人有恐惧 |
| 231 | that the future has already been written, | 未来已经写好了, |
| 232 | that the machines are coming, | 机器来了, |
| 233 | that the jobs are evaporating, | 工作正在蒸发, |
| 234 | that the climate is breaking, | 气候正在破裂, |
| 235 | that politics is fractured, | 政治是分裂的, |
| 236 | and that you are inheriting a mess that you did not create. | 而你们将继承你们所未创造的灾难。 |
| 237 | And I understand that fear. | 我理解这种恐惧。 |
| 238 | Does that surprise you that they all boo? | 你惊讶他们都嘘? |
| 239 | Not really. | 没有 |
| 240 | I think this is a... | 我觉得这是... |
| 241 | 助动AI. | |
| 242 | I mean, it's amazing from a generation | 我的意思是,这是惊人的 从一代人 |
| 243 | that has embraced technology. | 已经接受了技术。 |
| 244 | I think it's a clear case of Turkey's voting against Christmas. | 我认为这是土耳其投票反对圣诞节的明显案例. |
| 245 | I think they can see what's coming. | 我想他们能看见未来 |
| 246 | And if we look at employment and youth unemployment, | 如果我们看看就业和青年失业, |
| 247 | as Stefan has touched on, in the UK is very high. | 正如Stefan所提到, 在英国非常高。 |
| 248 | And what that's meaning is that | 而这意味着 |
| 249 | when the cost of employing people is expensive, | 当雇人的费用昂贵的时候, |
| 250 | the cost of employing young people | 雇用年轻人的费用 |
| 251 | who are unskilled and untrained | 非熟练和未受过训练者; |
| 252 | at the corporate and enterprise level, | 在公司和企业一级, |
| 253 | you're going to choose potentially AI | 你会选择潜在的AI |
| 254 | to fill those junior roles, | 担任这些初级职务, |
| 255 | to do that research, to do that analysis. | 做那个研究,做那个分析。 |
| 256 | And the students, as you say, | 还有学生,就像你说的, |
| 257 | have been using that to help them in their homeworks, | 曾经用它来帮助他们做功课, |
| 258 | to help them in their dissertations. | 帮助他们撰写论文。 |
| 259 | They know how valuable it can be. | 他们知道这有多值钱 |
| 260 | Once they get into that workplace, | 一旦他们进入工作场所 |
| 261 | they're finding that there isn't any jobs for them | 他们发现他们没有工作 |
| 262 | because it's being supplanted by AI, | 因为它被AI取代, |
| 263 | or the cost of employing people at that level is just too high. | 或雇用人员的费用太高。 |
| 264 | We have an audience question. | 我们有一个观众问题。 |
| 265 | Keep your emails coming and your questions. | 继续发邮件和提问 |
| 266 | 在bbc.co.uk的AIDE编码. | |
| 267 | This one's from Patrick in Minnesota on a similar theme. | 这个来自明尼苏达州的帕特里克,主题类似. |
| 268 | He says, how do we reconcile AI optimism | 他说,我们如何调和AI乐观 |
| 269 | with the realities of current policies | A. 与现行政策现实的联系 |
| 270 | which frequently prioritise economic growth | * 经常将经济增长列为优先事项 |
| 271 | over human enrichment? | 人类的丰富? |
| 272 | So I would love to take this first. | 所以我想先拿这个 |
| 273 | Loving the beautiful state of Minnesota. | 热爱明尼苏达美丽的州 |
| 274 | So thank you very much for the question. | 所以,非常感谢你的问题。 |
| 275 | We have to ask ourselves, I think, | 我们必须问自己,我想, |
| 276 | what does good AI look like? | 好AI长什么样? |
| 277 | I don't think we would want to go back, | 我不认为我们想回去, |
| 278 | just like we can't, you know, not use the internet anymore. | 就像我们不能再使用互联网一样 |
| 279 | We can't un-use AI. | 我们不能不使用AI。 |
| 280 | It's here. | 它在这里。 |
| 281 | We want AI in areas where it's really appropriate. | 我们希望AI在真正合适的领域。 |
| 282 | And I'm thinking specifically of places like in healthcare. | 我特别想到了医疗保健之类的地方。 |
| 283 | It's helping doctors, it's helping nurses, | 它帮助医生, 它帮助护士, |
| 284 | and that helps patients. | 帮助病人。 |
| 285 | None of us would want that to go away. | 我们谁都不希望这种情况消失。 |
| 286 | If anything, we want to go really hard on that. | 如果有什么,我们想 真正努力地做到这一点。 |
| 287 | Also, because healthcare is a highly regulated sector, | 此外,由于保健是一个高度规范的部门, |
| 288 | so if you're using AI, it has to be safe and accountable. | 所以,如果你使用AI, 它必须是安全的和负责任的。 |
| 289 | Right? | 对吧? |
| 290 | Where we perhaps need to revisit this entire question | 我们也许需要重新审视整个问题 |
| 291 | is about the social contract. | 是关于社会契约的 |
| 292 | So if all of the money is going to very few companies, | 所以如果所有的钱都流向很少的公司 |
| 293 | which don't represent most, frankly, of the economy, | 老实说,这并不能代表经济 |
| 294 | it's a very, very small thing, | 这是一个非常,非常小的事情, |
| 295 | it's decoupled from the wider economy. | 它与更广泛的经济脱钩。 |
| 296 | That is not helpful for the wider society. | 这无助于更广泛的社会。 |
| 297 | If it's affecting young people, | 如果它影响了年轻人, |
| 298 | if it's causing AI psychosis, | 如果这导致AI精神病, |
| 299 | if it is leading to greater misinformation and disinformation, | 如果这导致了更大的错误和虚假, |
| 300 | which interferes with our democracies, | 干涉我们的民主, |
| 301 | then we need to crack down on it. | 然后我们需要破解它。 |
| 302 | So the question is, are our existing laws sufficient | 所以问题是,我们现有的法律是否足够 |
| 303 | and fit for purpose and just need to be reinforced, | 并适合目的 并需要得到加强, |
| 304 | or do we need new legislation and regulation? | 还是我们需要新的立法和条例? |
| 305 | It's worth saying, Nina, that that negative AI sentiment | 尼娜 值得一提的是 这种负面的AI情绪 |
| 306 | is a real liability for these AI labs | 对人工智能实验室来说是真正的责任 |
| 307 | because they need data centers to run their models. | 因为他们需要数据中心来运行他们的模型。 |
| 308 | Those data centers need to be built somewhere | 这些数据中心需要建在某个地方 |
| 309 | in communities connected to power grids. | 与电网相连的社区。 |
| 310 | And suddenly, because of the negativity, | 突然间,因为消极情绪, |
| 311 | communities are starting to fight back, | 社区开始反击, |
| 312 | so planning applications are being blocked. | 因此规划应用程序被屏蔽. |
| 313 | And ultimately, this is a restriction, is it not, on compute power? | 归根结底,这是对计算能力的限制,不是吗? |
| 314 | So they have to win this PR battle with the public, | 所以他们必须赢得这场公关战役 |
| 315 | otherwise they're doomed. | 否则就完了 |
| 316 | Yeah, but I think a good contrast is think about | 是的,但我认为一个很好的对比 是思考 |
| 317 | Navidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, also did a commencement speech. | 纳维迪亚的首席执行官Jensen Huang也做了开场演讲. |
| 318 | And of course, he talked about AI a lot during his speech, | 当然,他在演讲中经常谈到AI, |
| 319 | and he wasn't booed. | 他没有嘘声。 |
| 320 | I think if you look at the positioning of his speech, | 我认为如果你看看他的演讲位置 |
| 321 | he represented AI more as an opportunity, | 他更多地代表大赦国际的机会, |
| 322 | but also as a change in how future work will be different | 未来工作将如何改变 |
| 323 | from what we got used to in the past. | 从我们过去习惯的。 |
| 324 | So he mentioned plumbers, electricians. | 于是他提到了水管工,电工. |
| 325 | Those are new careers young people could consider. | 这些是年轻人可以考虑的新职业。 |
| 326 | But he wasn't focused on the aspect of AI replacing entry-level jobs. | 但他并没有专注于AI取代起职工作的方面. |
| 327 | So you're right, and I agree with Stephanie a lot on her points about regulation. | 你说得对 我同意Stephanie关于监管的观点 |
| 328 | The technology is indeed moving so fast beyond the society | 技术确实在超越社会 |
| 329 | and regulators and governments can prepare for, | 监管者和政府可以做好准备, |
| 330 | the very significant challenges and risks. | 挑战与风险。 |
| 331 | So it's definitely not, it's the same challenge for both China and the US, | 所以,这绝对不是, 这是同样的挑战 中国和美国, |
| 332 | even though China has implemented a lot of regulation, | 虽然中国执行了很多条例 |
| 333 | it faces the same fundamental challenge that there's no answer for. | 它面临着同样的根本挑战,没有答案。 |
| 334 | Well, compute power and data centers is precisely what brings us to our second story, | 计算电源和数据中心正是我们第二个故事的内容 |
| 335 | because thousands of miles away from Oakland in Beijing, | 因为离北京奥克兰数千英里远 |
| 336 | two countries have been fighting over exactly that. | 两国正为此而斗争。 |
| 337 | Trump and Xi met in Beijing alongside Jensen Huang, | 特朗普和习近平在北京和黄詹森会面 |
| 338 | who Nina was just mentioning, the CEO of Nvidia, | 尼娜刚刚提到的恩维迪亚的首席执行官 |
| 339 | and Trump has approved limited sales of Nvidia's H200 chips to 10 Chinese firms. | 而特朗普也批准将Nvidia的H200芯片有限销售给10家中国公司. |
| 340 | On Air Force One on the way home, | 空军 一个回家的路上, |
| 341 | Trump told reporters that he had discussed, and I quote, | 特朗普告诉记者,他已经讨论过,我引用 |
| 342 | the guardrails for AI with President Xi. | 和习主席一起为AI做护栏 |
| 343 | Sir, can I ask you two on technology? | 先生,我可以问你们两个关于技术? |
| 344 | First, computer chips, advanced computer chips like the H200s that Jensen has, | 首先,电脑芯片,高级电脑芯片 像H200的詹森有, |
| 345 | did that come up at all with Xi? | 和习近平有关系吗? |
| 346 | It didn't come up, but as you know, Jensen was there, | 它没有出现,但你知道,詹森在那里, |
| 347 | he's an amazing guy, Nvidia. | 他是一个惊人的家伙,恩维迪亚。 |
| 348 | And he would be excited. | 他会很兴奋的 |
| 349 | You know, they have a much higher level than the H200. | 他们比H200高很多 |
| 350 | But the H200 is good. | 但H200型机车不错 |
| 351 | China needs it. | 中国需要它。 |
| 352 | And so, yeah, it came up. | 所以,是的,它来了。 |
| 353 | They haven't bought it in so much. | 他们没有买这么多。 |
| 354 | No, because they chose not to. | 不,因为他们选择不这样做。 |
| 355 | They want to try and develop their own. | 他们想尝试开发自己的。 |
| 356 | But it did come up, and I think something could happen on that. | 但事情确实发生了, 我认为可能会发生一些事情。 |
| 357 | And then on artificial intelligence, | 然后关于人工智能 |
| 358 | you have quite a bit higher level. | 你有相当高的级别。 |
| 359 | But the H200 is a good, it's a great chip. | 但H200型机车是好的,是很好的芯片. |
| 360 | And then on artificial intelligence, | 然后关于人工智能 |
| 361 | what is it that you want to get done? | 你想完成什么任务? |
| 362 | Did you bring up the goals? | 你提出目标了吗? |
| 363 | We talked, you know, we're leading by a lot, | 我们谈过,你知道, 我们领导了很多, |
| 364 | but they're second and they're very strong. | 但他们是第二 而且非常强壮。 |
| 365 | And we talked about possibly working together for guardrails. | 我们讨论过一起为护栏工作 |
| 366 | And he's great. | 他是个好人 |
| 367 | What kind of guardrails? | 什么样的护栏? |
| 368 | The standard guardrails that we talk about all the time. | 我们一直在谈论的标准护栏。 |
| 369 | AI is fantastic. | AI是惊人的。 |
| 370 | So many things can happen in terms of health, medicine, | 在健康,医学方面,有很多事情会发生 |
| 371 | operations, everything. | 行动,一切。 |
| 372 | The military, so many things can happen. | 军事,如此之多事可成. |
| 373 | But it's also got some drawbacks. | 但也有缺点 |
| 374 | Nina, what's actually going on here? | 妮娜,这到底是怎么回事? |
| 375 | Well, what's going on is that Washington still lives under the delusion | 华盛顿仍然生活在妄想之中 |
| 376 | that it can cripple China's AI development simply, | 它能使中国的AI发展瘫痪, |
| 377 | by restricting access to advanced chips. | 通过限制对高级芯片的访问。 |
| 378 | But the moment China decided to build its own self-reliant AI tech stack, | 但是,当中国决定 建立自己自力更生的AI技术堆栈, |
| 379 | you know, including its own chips, software, cloud infrastructure, | 包括自己的芯片 软件 云基础设施 |
| 380 | and supply chains, that ship had already sailed. | 和供应链, 船已经航行。 |
| 381 | And there's no turning back for China. | 而华严无退转. |
| 382 | And the fact that China looks likely to not buy the approved H200 chips | 而中国看起来可能不会买到批准的H200芯片 |
| 383 | anyway, shows that Beijing is fully dedicated to a future, | 总之,表明北京完全致力于未来 |
| 384 | not dependent on the media or the American AI ecosystem. | 不依赖媒体或美国AI生态系统. |
| 385 | Yeah, that's really important, isn't it? | 这很重要,不是吗? |
| 386 | Because Trump approved the H200 chip sales in January to these Chinese firms, | 因为特朗普在1月份批准了H200芯片销售给这些中国企业, |
| 387 | 阿里巴巴 Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com, 勒诺沃. | |
| 388 | And yet nothing's been shipped. | 然而,没有被运送。 |
| 389 | I mean, the Chinese said, no, thanks. | 我的意思是,中国人说,不,谢谢。 |
| 390 | And they're pushing all the effort towards their own domestic chip manufacturing. | 他们正在推动所有的努力 走向自己的国内芯片制造。 |
| 391 | Yeah, for sure. | 是的,当然。 |
| 392 | I mean, you know, you can think about, actually, | 我的意思是,你知道, 你可以思考,实际上, |
| 393 | the U.S. restrictions on Chinese technology really began escalating | 美国对中国科技的限制真的开始升级 |
| 394 | during Trump's first term around 2018. | 在2018年左右特朗普第一个任期期间. |
| 395 | So Beijing has had years of warning that dependence on American technology | 所以北京多年来一直警告 依赖美国技术 |
| 396 | could become a strategic vulnerability. | 可能会成为战略弱点。 |
| 397 | So those restrictions absolutely hurt Chinese tech companies. | 所以,这些限制绝对伤害了中国的技术公司。 |
| 398 | You know, let's not forget. | 你知道,让我们不要忘记。 |
| 399 | Huawei was once one of the world's dominant AI infrastructure companies, | 华威曾经是世界主流AI基础设施公司之一, |
| 400 | and its smartphone chips were globally competitive | 它的智能手机芯片具有全球竞争力 |
| 401 | before U.S. sanctions suddenly cut off access to advanced manufacturing. | 美国的制裁突然切断了先进制造业的准入。 |
| 402 | You know, so from Beijing's perspective, the lesson was very clear. | 所以从北京的角度来看,这个教训是非常明确的. |
| 403 | Any critical dependence on foreign technology could eventually become a liability. | 对外国技术的任何严重依赖最终都可能成为一项责任。 |
| 404 | So that's why China has spent years aggressively pursuing supply chain | 所以中国多年来一直积极追求供应链 |
| 405 | independence in chips, AI infrastructure and software ecosystem. | 在芯片,AI基础设施和软件生态系统中的独立性. |
| 406 | So, you know, this ship has sailed and there's definitely no going back. | 所以,你知道,这艘船已经航行了 绝对不能回头。 |
| 407 | Can we talk about the chips? | 我们能谈谈筹码吗? |
| 408 | I mean, they are supplying the Americans as the H100 | 我的意思是,他们供应美国人 作为H100 |
| 409 | and the Blackwell series, which are the sort of lesser model. | 和布莱克威尔系列, 这是那种次要的模型。 |
| 410 | What does that actually mean in practice for China's ability to compete? | 这实际上对中国的竞争能力意味着什么? |
| 411 | Because the H200 is commonly perceived around the world as the best chip, | 因为H200被普遍视为全球最好的芯片, |
| 412 | which they don't have. | 他们没有的 |
| 413 | So does America still have an edge in development? | 那么美国在发展上还有优势吗? |
| 414 | Well, I think America has the compute capacity from those chips, | 我想美国有这些芯片的计算能力 |
| 415 | which enables it to train the large language models | 它能够训练大型语言模型 |
| 416 | on the necessary amounts of compute power that it requires. | 需要多少计算能力。 |
| 417 | But I think exactly as Nina's mentioned, what China is very good at | 但我认为正如妮娜提到的 中国擅长的 |
| 418 | is they're very good at working with design constraints. | 他们很擅长设计限制 |
| 419 | And when there have been sort of constraints on exports, for example, | 例如,当出口受到限制时, |
| 420 | they will work within what constraints they have. | 他们将在自己的限制范围内工作。 |
| 421 | 正如我们和DeepSeek看到的... | |
| 422 | DeepSeek是一个很好的例子。 | |
| 423 | When you don't have the compute capacity, | 当你没有计算能力时 |
| 424 | then you find other ways of being efficient. | 然后,你找到其他高效的方式。 |
| 425 | You find optimisations, you find new algorithms. | 你找到优化,你找到新的算法。 |
| 426 | And so to be able to achieve a similar or comparative outcome | 从而能够取得类似或比较的结果 |
| 427 | with US counterparts on much less capable hardware | 与美国同行的硬件能力低得多 |
| 428 | is something that China has been incredibly good at over the years. | 这是中国多年来非常擅长的东西。 |
| 429 | And with their native capability that they're now building, | 以他们的本土能力 他们现在正在建设, |
| 430 | that's only going to improve with time. | 这只会随着时间而改善 |
| 431 | So I think Trump has found himself in a difficult situation, really, | 所以我认为特朗普发现自己 陷入了困境,真的, |
| 432 | where they've constrained access to chips, | 在那里他们限制 获取芯片, |
| 433 | but it hasn't stopped China progressing. | 但它并没有阻止中国的进步。 |
| 434 | And now America wants the benefit of selling those chips in | 现在美国想从出售这些芯片得到好处 |
| 435 | without giving them too much of a head start over the US. | 没有给他们太多的头脑 从美国开始。 |
| 436 | So they find themselves caught between two worlds. | 于是他们发现自己被夹在两个世界之间. |
| 437 | Presumably Jensen Huang is on for the ride | 估计詹森 黄哥要上路了 |
| 438 | because he could be selling chips to China and making a fortune, | 因为他可能卖薯条到中国赚钱 |
| 439 | and he's not. | 他没有。 |
| 440 | It's win-win for him either way. | 对他来说是双赢的 |
| 441 | How do you mean win-win either way? | 你是指双赢吗? |
| 442 | Well, if he's able to sell fully and freely into China, | 如果他能畅销到中国 |
| 443 | he would be delighted. | 他会很高兴的。 |
| 444 | But if he isn't and can't do it, | 但是如果他不是 也不能做到这一点, |
| 445 | then he gets to have the sort of prestige of saying, | 然后,他得到了那种声望 说, |
| 446 | we have the leading chips. | 我们有领先的筹码 |
| 447 | China doesn't get access to them. | 中国无法接触他们. |
| 448 | If you want to have top chips, top computing, | 如果你想有顶级芯片,顶级计算, |
| 449 | you have to buy American. | 你必须买美国人。 |
| 450 | The real threat moment to his business will be | 真正的威胁时刻 他的业务将是 |
| 451 | when China is able to produce a chip that is as good or better. | 当中国能够生产出一个同样好或更好的芯片时. |
| 452 | The Democrats. | 帝释者. |
| 453 | Sorry, go on, Nina. | 对不起,继续,尼娜。 |
| 454 | 所以为了补充Stephanie的观点 | |
| 455 | Nvidia有很多损失, | |
| 456 | and America has a lot to lose if China indeed builds its own AI tech stack. | 如果中国真的建立了自己的AI技术堆栈,美国将损失惨重. |
| 457 | The mistake many people make is that thinking about AI | 很多人犯的错误是 想到AI |
| 458 | is only about who has the best single chip. | 只有谁有最好的单芯片。 |
| 459 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 460 | You know, Formula One isn't won by the best single engine. | 你知道吗,公式 一个不是最好的单引擎赢的 |
| 461 | It's won by the entire system. | 由整个系统赢得. |
| 462 | You know, software, coordination, networking, and skill. | 软件、协调、网络和技能 |
| 463 | 所以,你知道,我们看 DeepSeq V4, | |
| 464 | which is already running on Huawei's Ascent platform | 已经运行在华威的升华平台上 |
| 465 | and moving away from the VDS CUDA ecosystem already. | 并且已经远离了VDS CUDA生态系统. |
| 466 | That's a major milestone and symbolic moment. | 这是一个重要的里程碑和象征的时刻。 |
| 467 | So first time a world-leading model, | 所以,第一次 一个世界领先的模型, |
| 468 | AI model, running on, you know, not Nvidia chips, not CUDA ecosystem. | AI模型,运行在,你知道, 不是Nvidia芯片, 不是CUDA生态系统。 |
| 469 | I think Nvidia is, you know, actually facing potential, | 我认为Nvidia是,你知道, 实际上面对潜力, |
| 470 | you know, this breaking point of its very, very dominant ecosystem. | 你知道,这个突破点 它非常,非常主导生态系统。 |
| 471 | You know, CUDA has 85% market share in terms of AI, you know, ecosystem. | CUDA拥有85%的市场份额 在AI,你知道的,生态系统。 |
| 472 | So that is under threat right now. | 所以,这正在受到威胁。 |
| 473 | Well, that's all we have time for. | 好吧,这就是我们的时间。 |
| 474 | Daniel Flack, Nina Chang, Dr Stephanie Heath, thank you all very much indeed. | 丹尼尔·弗莱克、妮娜·张、史蒂芬妮医生 希斯,谢谢大家 |
| 475 | If you have any questions or thoughts on the programme, | 如果你对节目有任何问题或想法 |
| 476 | then you can email us as I say at aidecoded at bbc.co.uk. | 然后可以按我在bbc.co.uk的密码给我们发邮件 |
| 477 | On screen is the QR code that will take you to the back catalogue on YouTube. | 屏幕上是QR代码,可以带你到YouTube上的后台目录. |
| 478 | Every episode is there on the AI Decoded YouTube playlist, | 每集都在AI解码YouTube播放列表上, |
| 479 | 也可以在iPlayer上获得. | |
| 480 | Do take a look at that. | 看看这个 |
| 481 | Thank you for watching. | 谢谢你的观看。 |
| 482 | We'll see you next week. | 下周见 |
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