25分钟教你读完两年MBA的精华
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Alright, you're human, which means you're constantly moving objects across time and | 好吧,你是人类, 这意味着你不断移动 物体跨时间和 |
| 0:04 | space in exchange for colorful rectangles, hoping those rectangles eventually turn into | 空间以换色矩,希望这些矩最终变成 |
| 0:08 | food, comfort, or something of value to help you forget the things you spent the rectangles | 食物、舒适或有价值的东西 帮助你忘记你花在矩形上的东西 |
| 0:12 | on last week. | 上个星期。 |
| 0:14 | Surprise! | 惊喜! 惊喜吗? |
| 0:14 | That's also what a business is. | 业亦如是. |
| 0:16 | A business is basically a value-creating, rectangle-collecting machine, where the goal | 企业基本上是一个创造价值, 矩形的收集机器, 其中目标 |
| 0:20 | is to sell people things they didn't know they needed by convincing them they always | 就是卖那些他们不知道的东西 说服他们 |
| 0:25 | needed them. | 需要他们。 |
| 0:25 | If we opened a business in 30 seconds, it would sound like this. | 如果我们在30秒内开业 听起来就像这样 |
展开字幕全文（646 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alright, you're human, which means you're constantly moving objects across time and | 好吧,你是人类, 这意味着你不断移动 物体跨时间和 |
| 2 | space in exchange for colorful rectangles, hoping those rectangles eventually turn into | 空间以换色矩,希望这些矩最终变成 |
| 3 | food, comfort, or something of value to help you forget the things you spent the rectangles | 食物、舒适或有价值的东西 帮助你忘记你花在矩形上的东西 |
| 4 | on last week. | 上个星期。 |
| 5 | Surprise! | 惊喜! 惊喜吗? |
| 6 | That's also what a business is. | 业亦如是. |
| 7 | A business is basically a value-creating, rectangle-collecting machine, where the goal | 企业基本上是一个创造价值, 矩形的收集机器, 其中目标 |
| 8 | is to sell people things they didn't know they needed by convincing them they always | 就是卖那些他们不知道的东西 说服他们 |
| 9 | needed them. | 需要他们。 |
| 10 | If we opened a business in 30 seconds, it would sound like this. | 如果我们在30秒内开业 听起来就像这样 |
| 11 | Here's the thing. | 事情是这样的 |
| 12 | Do you want it? | 你想要吗? |
| 13 | If yes, give us money. | 如果有,给我们钱。 |
| 14 | If no, we'll try yelling, then manipulating, then crying and praying until we get a yes, | 如果不行,我们会试着大喊大叫,然后操纵,然后哭着祈祷,直到我们得到同意, |
| 15 | get over it, or go broke. | 克服它,或去破产。 |
| 16 | Let's say our prayers get answered, then resources gather, money flows in from customers | 让我们的祷告得到回应 然后资源集中 顾客的钱流进来 |
| 17 | and flows out to employees, suppliers, landlords, lenders, taxes, that one subscription you | 并流向员工,供应商,房东,贷款人,税收, 一个订阅你 |
| 18 | forgot to cancel, and before you know it, you're making decisions. | 忘了取消 还没知道就决定了 |
| 19 | But because there's never enough of anything, time, cash, attention, every decision is like | 但是,因为从来没有 足够的东西,时间,现金,注意力, 每个决定就像 |
| 20 | a series of awkward trade-offs, like spend here or spend there, do this or do that, hire | 一系列尴尬的权衡,比如在这里花或者在那里花, 做这个或者做那个,雇佣 |
| 21 | or don't hire, buy inventory, or fix the printer that's been screaming since COVID. | 或者不雇人 购买存货 或修复自COVID以来一直在尖叫的打印机 |
| 22 | So managing a business is very much like strategic juggling, but with consequences. | 所以,管理一个企业 是非常像战略杂耍, 但会产生后果。 |
| 23 | Let's start mastering it by doing what every MBA does on day one. | 让我们开始掌握它 通过做每一个MBA 做的第一天。 |
| 24 | Pretend to know the customer. | 假装认识顾客 |
| 25 | That's marketing. | 这是营销。 |
| 26 | It's one part psychology, one part economics, and one part, I promise our logo is fun. | 这是心理学的一部分,经济学的一部分 我保证我们的标志是有趣的。 |
| 27 | Marketing strategy has seven steps. | 营销策略有七个步骤. |
| 28 | You cannot skip them. | 你不能跳过它们。 |
| 29 | You can try, but then your product will fail and the customers will ghost you like you're | 你可以尝试,但那样你的产品就会失败 顾客会像你们一样缠着你 |
| 30 | Diddy. | 迪迪,你好吗? |
| 31 | The steps go consumer analysis, market analysis, competitive analysis, channel review, preliminary | 步骤包括:消费者分析、市场分析、竞争分析、频道审查、初步分析 |
| 32 | marketing mix, economics evaluation, revision, and then you loop until your boss stops asking | 营销组合,经济评价,修订, 然后你循环,直到你的老板停止问 |
| 33 | questions. | 问题。 |
| 34 | Let's start with step one, consumer analysis, the most pseudo of the pseudo scientific marketing | 先从第一步开始 消费者分析 最伪科学营销 |
| 35 | arts where you stare directly into a customer's soul and try to figure out what emotional | 你直接凝视顾客灵魂的艺术 试着找出什么是情感 |
| 36 | hole you can shovel a product into. | 你可以把产品铲进洞里 |
| 37 | Imagine an average Joe. | 想象一个普通的乔。 |
| 38 | Yep, that's your consumer. | 是的,那是你的消费者。 |
| 39 | Joe is like a bald little puzzle box full of needs, feelings, desires, irrational impulses, | 乔就像一个秃头的小谜盒 充满了需求,感情,欲望,非理性的冲动, |
| 40 | and money. | 和钱。 |
| 41 | Sometimes Joe just buys things because he's high and there's a sale or an opportunity. | 有时乔只是因为身高而买东西,有买卖或机会. |
| 42 | You thought about buying the island. | 你想买下这个岛 |
| 43 | Dude. | 哥们 |
| 44 | When the island was for sale, we talked about it for a second. | 岛上出售的时候,我们谈了一下 |
| 45 | The thing is, Joe doesn't wake up wanting your thing. | 事情是,乔不会醒来 想要你的东西。 |
| 46 | Joe wakes up wanting something to eat or something to feel cool with or something to stop little | Joe醒来想吃点东西 或觉得很酷 或做点什么 |
| 47 | Joey screaming. | 乔伊在尖叫 |
| 48 | So have you ever done DMT? | 你做过DMT吗? |
| 49 | Every product sits inside some giant existential bucket. | 每个产品都放在一个巨大的生存桶里 |
| 50 | So first, what you gotta do is you gotta identify Joe's need category, which is MBA speak for | 首先,你必须确定乔的需求类别 MBA代表 |
| 51 | what weird mess Joe's into these days and can it be our business? | Joe最近惹了什么麻烦 会不会是我们的事? |
| 52 | Needs come in all shapes, functional, emotional, social, personal, or that weird urge to buy | 需要的形状,功能,情感,社交,个人 或奇怪的购买欲望 |
| 53 | a blender that connects to wifi for no reason. | 一个无缘无故连接wifi的搅拌机. |
| 54 | Let's say you sell baking soda, but Joe's not into baking. | 假设你卖烘焙苏打水,但乔不喜欢烘烤。 |
| 55 | Don't give up just yet. | 先别放弃 |
| 56 | Maybe he's in deodorizing refrigerators, cleaning carpets, brushing teeth, and neutralizing | 也许他在除臭 冰箱, 清洁地毯,刷牙和中和 |
| 57 | weird smells in his studio. | 他工作室里闻起来怪怪的 |
| 58 | Find every possible use case. | 找到每一个可能的用途 |
| 59 | That's your need universe. | 这就是你需要的宇宙 |
| 60 | Next, say goodbye to Joe and figure out who buys and who uses because they are not always | 接下来,跟乔说再见,找出谁买谁用,因为他们并不总是 |
| 61 | the same person, which explains at least half of birthday gifts. | 同一个人 这至少解释了一半的生日礼物 |
| 62 | Sometimes the buyer is a parent and the user is the toddler eating glue. | 有时买家是家长,使用者是吃胶的幼儿. |
| 63 | Sometimes the buyer is a boss and the user is the employee going apeshit on the desktop. | 有时买家是老板,用户是员工在桌面上胡说八道. |
| 64 | Sometimes the buyer is a naive little friend who misinterpreted a hint and is now on his | 有时候买家是个天真的小朋友 他误解了一个暗示,现在正在他身上 |
| 65 | knees in front of 18,000 strangers and the user? | 跪在18000个陌生人和用户面前? |
| 66 | Oh, I think she's saying I can't do it right now. | 哦,我想她说我现在做不到 |
| 67 | I really do like you a lot, but let's just be friends. | 我真的很喜欢你 但是我们做朋友吧 |
| 68 | Look at this. | 看看这个。 |
| 69 | Wow. | 珃 |
| 70 | Life can be brutal. | 生命是残酷的。 |
| 71 | If you aim your advertising at the wrong one, your product dies, and sometimes you die inside | 如果你的广告针对错的,你的产品会死,有时你会死在里面 |
| 72 | too. | 也一样。 |
| 73 | Now let's walk the buying process, also known as the five-step emotional rollercoaster every | 现在,让我们走 购买过程, 也被称为五步 情绪滚车 |
| 74 | consumer rides. | 消费者骑。 |
| 75 | That's awareness, search, evaluation, purchase, and post-purchase feeling. | 这就是意识,搜索,评价,购买,以及购买后的感觉. |
| 76 | You see a thing. | 你看到的东西。 |
| 77 | You Google it. | 你来谷歌吧 |
| 78 | You compare too many versions that look identical but have different price tags. | 你比较了太多看起来完全一样但价格标签不同的版本. |
| 79 | You buy one of them because you got tired. | 你买其中一个是因为你累了 |
| 80 | Then you spend three days cursing yourself. | 然后用三天的时间骂自己 |
| 81 | That's called buyer's remorse. | 这叫买家的悔恨 |
| 82 | Academics don't like that term. | 学者不喜欢这个术语. |
| 83 | I don't like academics. | 我不喜欢学术 |
| 84 | Risk also plays a role. | 风险也发挥作用。 |
| 85 | It increases involvement. | 它增加了参与。 |
| 86 | High involvement purchases like cars, insurance, couches, and shoes with too much personality | 高参与度购买汽车,保险,沙发和鞋 性格太强 |
| 87 | make people spend weeks researching until you could write a 40-page thesis. | 在你写一篇长达40页的论文之前 人们要花几周时间进行研究 |
| 88 | Low involvement purchases are like gum because who cares? | 低参与购买就像口香糖 因为谁在乎? |
| 89 | Marketers love low involvement purchases because you can practically trip and still make money. | 市场营销者喜欢低参与度购买,因为你几乎可以绊倒,还可以赚钱. |
| 90 | They also low-key love turning low-involvement crap into high-involvement statements like | 他们也低调的爱情 将低调的介入的废话变成高参与的言论 比如 |
| 91 | turning water into artisanal, glacier-kissed hydration experiences. | 将水变成手工的 冰川吻合的水合体验 |
| 92 | The more emotional the product, the more margin they can charge without crying. | 产品越情绪化,他们就可以不哭地充电. |
| 93 | This leads to one more behavior twist, impulse versus planned purchases. | 这导致了另一个行为扭曲, 冲动与计划购买。 |
| 94 | Impulse purchases skip the entire flow and just say, gimme, candy at checkout? | 冲动购买 跳过整个流量 并只是说,给我,糖果 在退货? |
| 95 | Impulse. | 冲动。 |
| 96 | A refrigerator? | 冰箱吗? |
| 97 | Planned. | 计划 |
| 98 | If it's impulse, placement matters more than persuasion. | 如果这是冲动,安置比说服更重要. |
| 99 | If it's planned, persuasion matters more than placement. | 如果有计划的话,说服比安置更重要. |
| 100 | MBAs love this stuff. | MBA喜欢这种东西。 |
| 101 | It makes them feel powerful. | 这让他们觉得很强大 |
| 102 | What makes them feel even more powerful is chopping the entire human species into factions | 让他们感到更强大的是 将整个人类分成派系 |
| 103 | and slices. | 还有切片 |
| 104 | That's segmentation. | 这是分裂。 |
| 105 | It's socially unacceptable in real life, but extremely acceptable in marketing. | 这在现实生活中是社会无法接受的,但在营销中是极可接受的. |
| 106 | To avoid being roasted in meetings, memorize these four classic segmentation types. | 为避免在会议上被烤焦,记住这四种经典的分块类型. |
| 107 | 1. | 一、导 言 |
| 108 | Geographic. | 地理学报. |
| 109 | Where you live. | 居何处. |
| 110 | 2. | 2. 国家 |
| 111 | Demographic. | 人口统计学. |
| 112 | Who you are. | 你是谁? |
| 113 | 3. | 3个 |
| 114 | Psychographic. | 灵验. |
| 115 | Why you are like this. | 你为什么这样 |
| 116 | 4. | 4个 |
| 117 | Behavioral. | 行为. |
| 118 | What you actually do when no one is watching. | 没人在看的时候你做什么? |
| 119 | But it isn't just slashing and slicing. | 但是,它不仅仅是刀割和切片。 |
| 120 | You have to evaluate whether the slice is worth eating. | 你必须评估这个切片是否值得吃. |
| 121 | Good segmentation passes seven MBA approved tests. | 良好的分区通过7个MBA批准测试. |
| 122 | Measurability. | 可测量性。 |
| 123 | Accessibility. | 无障碍. |
| 124 | Substantiality. | 实质性的。 |
| 125 | Profitability. | 利乐. |
| 126 | Compatibility. | 相应性. |
| 127 | Effectiveness. | 有效性。 |
| 128 | And. | 还有... |
| 129 | Defendability. | 被告行为。 |
| 130 | If you combine these, you can target precisely. | 如果你把这些结合起来,你可以精确瞄准。 |
| 131 | If a segment can't be measured. | 若一段不能测. |
| 132 | Reached. | 到达。 |
| 133 | Sold to. | 卖了 |
| 134 | Served well. | 干得不错 |
| 135 | Defended against competitors. | 对抗竞争对手 |
| 136 | And turned into money. | 然后变成钱 |
| 137 | Throw it away. | 弃之. |
| 138 | And find a better slice of humanity. | 找到一个更好的人性。 |
| 139 | That's called a makeable, but not marketable, idea. | 这叫做可塑但不能市场化的想法 |
| 140 | Meaning cute. | 意思是可爱。 |
| 141 | But we can't make rent with this. | 但我们不能用这个来挣房租 |
| 142 | Okay, now that you've figured out who you're trying to manipulate, I mean, serve, let's | 好吧,既然你已经知道 你想操纵谁,我的意思是,服务,让我们 |
| 143 | do some market analysis, which zooms out from individual consumers to the whole battlefield. | 做一些市场分析 从消费者个体放大到整个战场 |
| 144 | First task, define your relevant market, which is MBA code for stop pretending everyone on | 第一个任务, 定义您的相关市场, 这是MBA代码, 用于停止假装每个人在 |
| 145 | earth wants your product. | 地球想要你的产品。 |
| 146 | Because if everyone is the target audience, then no one is. | 因为如果每个人都是目标受众, 那么没有人是。 |
| 147 | Let's be real. | 作么生会. |
| 148 | 你不是Google,你不是Google,你不是Google,你不是Google,你不是Google | |
| 149 | Maybe you're niche. | 也许你很适合 |
| 150 | Maybe you're super niche. | 也许你是超强的优势 |
| 151 | Maybe your target market is three people who live in Vermont. | 也许你的目标市场是三个住在佛蒙特州的人 |
| 152 | It happens. | 它发生。 |
| 153 | So to start things off, your market should be not too big. | 因此,要开始的事情, 你的市场不应该太大。 |
| 154 | Not too small. | 没那么小 |
| 155 | Toothpaste isn't competing with sports cars, unless the commercial really goes off the | 牙膏不会和运动车竞争 除非广告真的响了 |
| 156 | rails. | 铁轨。 |
| 157 | A restaurant might think it's in the food business, but customers might see it as convenience, | 一家餐馆可能认为它属于食品行业, 但顾客可能认为这是方便的, |
| 158 | entertainment, or I guess this is open? | 娱乐,还是我猜这是开放的? |
| 159 | Or maybe. | 也许吧 |
| 160 | You're selling one of those super fancy gourmet coffee blends with multiple nationalities | 你卖的是一个超级华丽的咖啡 配有多种国籍 |
| 161 | and sustainable packaging. | 可持续包装。 |
| 162 | Good for you. | 对你有好处 |
| 163 | But not all coffee markets are accessible. | 但并非所有的咖啡市场都可以进入. |
| 164 | And not all coffee buyers are hipsters. | 不是所有的咖啡买家都是嬉皮士 |
| 165 | And not all hipsters are interested in flavored coffee with questionable origin stories. | 并不是所有的嬉皮士都对有可疑起源故事的口味咖啡感兴趣. |
| 166 | The relevant market shrinks fast as you filter. | 相关市场在过滤时会迅速萎缩. |
| 167 | Welcome to reality. | 欢迎来到现实 |
| 168 | Whoa. | 珃 |
| 169 | What's that? | 这是什么? |
| 170 | That's the competition. | 这就是竞争。 |
| 171 | And it's coming to getcha. | 它会来接你 |
| 172 | Let's face it in step three. | 让我们面对第三步。 |
| 173 | Competitive analysis. | 竞争性分析。 |
| 174 | Where you study your competition and try not to cry. | 在那里,你学习你的竞争 并尝试不哭。 |
| 175 | Industry factors shape competition. | 工业因素形成竞争。 |
| 176 | Barriers to entry. | 入境障碍. |
| 177 | Market share. | 市场份额。 |
| 178 | High capital needs. | 高资本需求. |
| 179 | Patents. | 专利 |
| 180 | Distribution lock-ins. | 分发锁定。 |
| 181 | Customer loyalty and switching costs. | 客户忠诚和转换成本。 |
| 182 | Keep newbies out or make it tough to stay relevant. | 保持新人外出或 很难保持相关性。 |
| 183 | Ask yourself this. | 问问你自己 |
| 184 | What can you actually do that isn't embarrassing? | 你究竟能做什么不尴尬? |
| 185 | That's your core competencies. | 这就是你的核心能力 |
| 186 | Can be tech, brand strength, or extremely well-timed memes. | 可以是技术,品牌力量,也可以是非常及时的迷因. |
| 187 | Compare strengths, weaknesses, share trends, key resources, and the infamous key competitive | 比较强项、弱项、共享趋势、关键资源和臭名昭著的关键竞争力 |
| 188 | factors. | 因素。 |
| 189 | Price. | 价.. |
| 190 | Quality. | 质量. |
| 191 | Advertising. | 广告. |
| 192 | R&D. | 研发. |
| 193 | And service. | 还有服务 |
| 194 | Figure out which one your industry actually cares about. | 找出你的行业真正关心的 |
| 195 | Fast food. | 快餐报. |
| 196 | Advertising. | 广告. |
| 197 | Tech. | 技术 |
| 198 | Features. | 特征. |
| 199 | And patents. | 还有专利 |
| 200 | Chemicals. | 化学品。 |
| 201 | Price. | 价.. |
| 202 | And logistics. | 还有后勤 |
| 203 | Luxury fashion. | 奢侈时尚. |
| 204 | Everything except price. | 除了价钱之外的一切 |
| 205 | If your positioning is off, you lose. | 如果你的定位关闭,你就输了。 |
| 206 | To delay losing, draw two axes. | 为拖延失利,画两轴. |
| 207 | Usually price versus quality or any attributes that matter. | 通常价格与质量或者任何重要属性. |
| 208 | Then plot where you and your enemies sit. | 然后策划你和你的敌人坐在哪里 |
| 209 | Suddenly you see the battlefield. | 你突然看到战场了 |
| 210 | That's perceptual mapping. | 即是知觉映射. |
| 211 | Think of it like astrology for products that say things like sweet versus salty, durable | 把它当成占星术 对于那些说的东西 像甜美和咸,耐久 |
| 212 | versus fashionable, fast versus reliable, cheap versus fancy, and boring versus exciting. | 与时尚,快与可靠, 便宜与花哨, 无聊与激动。 |
| 213 | If you notice an empty space far from everyone else, congratulations. | 如果你注意到一个远离其他人的空地,恭喜。 |
| 214 | That's either a brilliant opportunity or an abandoned wasteland. | 要么是个绝佳的机会 要么是一个废弃的荒地 |
| 215 | You won't know which until you go there and succeed or explode. | 直到你成功或爆炸,你才会知道 |
| 216 | Choose wisely. | 明智的选择 |
| 217 | Okay, enough internal analysis. | 好了,够了内部分析。 |
| 218 | Time to zoom out and review distribution channels, also known as how do we get this thing to | 是时候放大和审查 发行渠道, 也被称为我们如何得到这个东西 |
| 219 | before it expires or breaks. | 在过期或中断之前。 |
| 220 | You can choose direct channels, indirect channels, retail, wholesale, online, teleportation, | 你可以选择直接频道,间接频道,零售,批发,在线,远程传送, |
| 221 | whatever makes sense. | 随你怎么说 |
| 222 | Every channel has power imbalances, margins, and politics. | 每个渠道都有权力不平衡,边际,政治. |
| 223 | Channel margins are like a conga line. | 海峡边缘就像一条康加线 |
| 224 | Manufacturers sell bulk goods to wholesalers at a profit, their margin. | 制造商向批发商出售散装货物,利润和利润。 |
| 225 | Wholesalers then sell smaller quantities to retailers who add their own markup to reach | 批发商然后向零售商出售数量较小的商品,零售商将自己加加价以达到 |
| 226 | the final consumer price. | 最终消费价格。 |
| 227 | Basically, everyone takes a cut until math says enough. | 基本上,每个人都在数学上说够了之前 被切掉 |
| 228 | Grocery stores, for example, charge slotting fees, which is basically give us money or | 例如,杂货店收取时间档费,这基本上就是给我们钱,或者 |
| 229 | we'll hide your product behind the mops. | 我们把你的产品藏在拖把后面 |
| 230 | And retail margin? | 还有零售利润? |
| 231 | Retail margin equals retail price minus wholesale price divided by retail price multiplied by | 零售幅度等于零售价格减去批发价格除以零售价格乘以 |
| 232 | 100%. | 百分百的 百分百的 百分百的 |
| 233 | Let's say if a retailer buys an item for $20 and sells to consumer for $50, then the | 如果一个零售商以20美元的价格买东西 以50美元的价格卖给消费者 那么 |
| 234 | gross profit is $30. | 毛利润为30美元。 |
| 235 | 30 by 50 times 100 equals 60, meaning retailer makes 60% profit margin on that item, or 60 | 30乘以50乘以100等于60,即零售商对该项目的利润率为60%,即60 |
| 236 | cents for every dollar of sales. | 每卖一元钱一分. |
| 237 | Understanding margin math is key because it determines your final consumer price, whether | 理解比值数学是关键,因为它决定了您的最终消费价格,是否 |
| 238 | you want it to or not. | 你愿意还是不愿意 |
| 239 | And that leads us into the heart of the plan, the famous preliminary marketing mix. | 这使我们进入计划的核心, 著名的初步营销组合。 |
| 240 | The four P's, product, place, promotion, price. | 四P的,产品,地点,推广,价格. |
| 241 | The four nipples you twist until your customer says, okay, fine, I'll buy it. | 你扭的四乳头 直到你的客户说,好吧,好吧,我会买它。 |
| 242 | Let's blitz through them. | 让我们闪过他们。 |
| 243 | First P is product, it's not just the thing. | 首先,P是产品, 它不只是事情。 |
| 244 | It's features, styling, reliability, quality, packaging, branding, brand equity, extensions. | 其特色,造型,可靠性,质量,包装,品牌,品牌股权,扩展. |
| 245 | And the question, does this make people happy or confused? | 问题是,这是让人高兴还是困惑? |
| 246 | Branding is huge because people love meaning. | 品牌是巨大的,因为人们喜欢意义。 |
| 247 | Brand equity is the magical value your brand adds without changing the actual product. | 品牌股权是您品牌增加的神奇价值,而不改变实际产品. |
| 248 | Strong brands can sell anything. | 强大的品牌可以销售任何东西. |
| 249 | Weak brands can barely sell what they're supposed to. | 薄弱的品牌几乎无法卖掉他们应该卖的东西. |
| 250 | You can extend brands, but if you extend too far, you dilute them. | 可以扩展品牌,但如果延伸过远,则稀释. |
| 251 | If you try to sell Gucci branded dish soap, expect riots. | 如果你想卖古奇品牌的菜式肥皂 就会引发骚乱 |
| 252 | Depth of line means how many versions of one product. | 线的深度是指一种产品的多少版本. |
| 253 | Breadth of line means how many categories you cover. | 线条面包是指你覆盖多少个类别. |
| 254 | Big brands love adding both as territorial land grabs. | 大牌子喜欢同时加入土地掠夺 |
| 255 | But sometimes more depth equals more SKUs equals more chaos. | 但有时更深度等于更多的SKU等于更多的混乱. |
| 256 | Speaking of chaos, let's talk circle of life. | 说到混乱,我们来谈谈生活圈子. |
| 257 | But for products, that's product life cycle or PLC. | 但对于产品来说,那是产品生命周期或PLC. |
| 258 | PLC has four stages. | PLC分为四个阶段. |
| 259 | Introduction, growth, maturity, decline. | 引进,成长,成熟,衰落. |
| 260 | Intro is please notice me. | 介绍是请注意我。 |
| 261 | Growth is holy wow, people love this. | 成长是神圣的,人们喜欢这个。 |
| 262 | Maturity is everyone sells this now and decline is nobody cares anymore. | 成熟是每个人现在卖这个, 下降是没有人在乎了。 |
| 263 | You have two jobs. | 你有两份工作 |
| 264 | First is to figure out what stage you're in. | 首先要弄清楚你处在哪个阶段. |
| 265 | So you don't accidentally spend growth phase money on your decline phase tragedy. | 所以你不会不小心把增长阶段的钱 花在你的衰退阶段的悲剧上。 |
| 266 | Second is to squeeze as much money as possible out of each stage without looking desperate. | 第二是尽量把钱挤出每个舞台,而不要绝望. |
| 267 | P number two is place otherwise known as distribution. | P2是别称分布的地方. |
| 268 | We partially covered it in distribution channels. | 我们部分地覆盖在分发渠道。 |
| 269 | Here's some more sauce. | 再来点酱汁 |
| 270 | Exclusive distribution means high control and prestige. | 独家分配意味着高度控制和声望。 |
| 271 | Selective means some outlets mass means everywhere that sells anything, | 选择性意味着一些渠道 质量意味着到处销售任何东西, |
| 272 | including that one gas station where all food is slightly dusty. | 包括一个加油站 在那里所有的食物都微尘。 |
| 273 | Your choice affects margins, brand image, customer access and your sanity. | 你的选择会影响边际 品牌形象 客户访问和你的理智 |
| 274 | Choose with care. | 仔细选择 |
| 275 | Third P promotion includes advertising, personal selling, sales promotions, PR, | 第三P促销包括广告,个人销售,销售促销,PR, |
| 276 | screaming into the void, whatever gets attention without getting sued. | 尖叫进入空虚, 任何受到注意而不被起诉。 |
| 277 | Advertising is shouting loudly. | 广告大喊大叫 |
| 278 | Measured with reach. | 以达度量. |
| 279 | How many people saw it? | 有多少人看见了? |
| 280 | Frequency. | 频率。 |
| 281 | How often? | 什么时候? |
| 282 | GRP and TRP reach times frequency CPM cost per 1000 impressions and creatives. | GRP和TRP达到频率,CPM每1000个印象和创意成本. |
| 283 | The actual ad, the ad can be brilliant. | 真实的广告,广告可以是辉煌的. |
| 284 | But if CPM is too high, you're basically setting money on fire. | 但是如果CPM太高,你基本上在放火烧钱. |
| 285 | Personal selling is convincing softly. | 个人销售很温柔 |
| 286 | Salespeople follow some classic scripts. | 销售人员遵循一些经典剧本. |
| 287 | There's Music Man, also known as Sing and Charm. | 著有"音乐人",又名"歌手与魅力". |
| 288 | Animated catalog, also known as show pictures like a kindergarten teacher. | 动画目录,又称展示图片如幼儿园教师. |
| 289 | Magic formula, also known as features first, benefits last. | 魔法配方,又称特征先,利益最后. |
| 290 | Problem solver, also known as fix things and pretend it was your idea. | 问题解决者,又称解决问题 假装这是你的主意 |
| 291 | Sales promotion is give stuff away so customers like you temporarily. | 促销是把东西送走 所以像你们这样的顾客 |
| 292 | Coupons, samples, contests, rebates, free undies with your logo on them. | 套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套套 |
| 293 | Publicity is promotion someone else pays for. | 宣传是别人付钱的晋升 |
| 294 | PR and earned media is shaping the story so you look less greedy than you are. | 公关和赚来的媒体 正在塑造这个故事 所以你看起来不像你那么贪婪 |
| 295 | Direct selling is door to door like it's 1957. | 直销就是一扇门 就像1957年一样 |
| 296 | Then there's push versus pull. | 然后是推对拉。 |
| 297 | Push is like shoving. | 推是如掷. |
| 298 | Pull is like seducing. | 拉像诱惑。 |
| 299 | Both work. | 二者功业. |
| 300 | Marketers prefer pull because it feels like a victory parade. | 市场商更喜欢拉,因为它感觉像胜利游行. |
| 301 | OK, fourth P price. | 好吧,第四个P价。 |
| 302 | Many ways to price cost based, value based, competitive, skimming, | 基于成本、基于价值、竞争性、低价 |
| 303 | penetration, elasticity based and more. | 穿透 弹性 更多 |
| 304 | These are the four main ones. | 此是四大义. |
| 305 | Cost based price equals cost plus markup value based charge, whatever value you | 基于成本的价格等于成本加上基于加价的收费,无论您的价值如何 |
| 306 | create competitive match or beat rival prices, elasticity based price, depending | 创造竞争性匹配或击败竞争对手价格、弹性价格,取决于 |
| 307 | on how dramatically people scream and run away when you raise the price. | 当你提高价格时,人们会尖叫和逃跑。 |
| 308 | Elastic buyers rage quit like Karens. | 聪明的买家像凯伦斯一样愤怒 |
| 309 | Inelastic buyers are addicts, super fans, desperate or sick. | 无弹性买家是瘾君子,超级粉丝,绝望或生病. |
| 310 | Pick one or mix. | 选一个或混合。 |
| 311 | But remember the rule. | 但要记住规矩 |
| 312 | If price is less than cost, you are a charity. | 如果价格低于成本,你是一个慈善机构。 |
| 313 | Also remember channel margins from earlier because margins matter. | 请记住早先的频道边距, 因为边距很重要。 |
| 314 | Everyone takes a cut. | 每个人都吃一块 |
| 315 | Markup stack. | 马克堆。 |
| 316 | You price too high. | 你的价格太高了。 |
| 317 | No one buys. | 没有人买。 |
| 318 | You price too low. | 你的价格太低了。 |
| 319 | Someone asks if something's wrong with the product. | 有人问产品是否有问题. |
| 320 | It's a delicate dance. | 微妙舞乐. |
| 321 | Now we hit the final stop on this MBA marketing carnival ride. | 现在我们在MBA销售狂欢节上 到了最后一站 |
| 322 | Economics evaluation. | 经济学评价. |
| 323 | This is where your marketing plan gets hit by a calculator. | 这就是你的营销计划被计算器击中的地方. |
| 324 | Does this marketing plan actually make money? | 这个营销计划真的赚钱吗? |
| 325 | You check your margins, your channel cuts, your volume potential and your break even. | 你检查你的边缘,你的频道 削减,你的体积潜力 和你的休息均匀。 |
| 326 | Break even is the point where total revenue equals total costs, meaning a | Break even 是总收入等于总成本的点,意思是a |
| 327 | business makes neither a profit nor a loss, essentially covering expenses. | 企业既不是利润,也不是损失,基本上包括开支。 |
| 328 | If break even is high, revise. | 如果断裂甚至很高, 修正。 |
| 329 | If your payback period is longer than your product's life cycle, again, revise. | 如果你的回报期比产品寿命周期长的话,再修订一次. |
| 330 | If your boss looks pale after reading the numbers, you know it, revise. | 如果你的老板读完数字后看起来苍白, 你知道,修正。 |
| 331 | That's the revision cycle looping you back to the start. | 这就是修正周期 循环你回到开始。 |
| 332 | Keep cycling until the numbers start to look less bad and your mistakes | 保持循环,直到数字开始 看上去不那么糟糕和你的错误 |
| 333 | stop being mistakes. | 别再犯错误了 |
| 334 | OK, now that we've marketed somewhat reasonably, we arrive at accounting. | OK,既然我们有些合理的市场化了, 我们完成了会计。 |
| 335 | The ancient art of telling the financial truth using only lies that are allowed by law. | 讲述金融真相的古老艺术 仅使用法律允许的谎言 |
| 336 | The whole accounting universe revolves around MS Excel powered Holy Trinity of | 整个会计宇宙围绕MS Excel 动力的圣三一 |
| 337 | balance sheet, income statement and cash flow statement. | 资产负债表、损益表和现金流量表。 |
| 338 | They all tell the story of the company, what you own, how much you made and | 他们都讲述了公司的故事, 你拥有什么, 你做了多少, |
| 339 | whether you're secretly broke. | 不论你是否秘密破产了 |
| 340 | But from the perspective of three unreliable narrators who witnessed the same | 但从三个不可靠的旁白的观点来看 他们目睹了同样的 |
| 341 | car accident from different angles. | 从不同角度的车祸 |
| 342 | First, the balance sheet. | 一,资产负债表. |
| 343 | Think of balance sheet as a financial selfie of your business on a random Tuesday. | 将资产负债表视为你周二的金融自拍 |
| 344 | At its core sits the famous accounting equation that accountants | 其核心是会计师们著名的会计方程式 |
| 345 | tattoo on their love handles. | 他们的爱柄上有纹身 |
| 346 | Assets equals liabilities plus equity translation. | 资产等于负债加股本折算。 |
| 347 | What we have equals what we owe, plus what's truly left after the embarrassment. | 我们拥有的等于我们欠的, 再加上尴尬之后真正剩下的。 |
| 348 | Assets include cash, inventory, equipment, the office lava lamp. | 资产包括现金、库存、设备、办公熔岩灯。 |
| 349 | Liabilities are debts, payments owed and emotional damage from vendor relationships. | 负债是供应商关系中的债务、欠款和精神损害。 |
| 350 | Equity is what's left for owners. | 公平是留给所有者的 |
| 351 | If everything is sold and everyone is paid, everything must balance on a chart. | 如果一切被出售,每个人都得到报酬,那么一切必须在图表上保持平衡. |
| 352 | If it doesn't, you're either dumb or committing fraud or both. | 如果不是这样,你要么是哑巴,要么是诈骗,要么是两者兼有。 |
| 353 | Next, income statement, which tells the story of a company over time. | 接下来是收益表,它讲述了一个公司随着时间的推移的故事. |
| 354 | Revenue comes in, expenses go out and whatever remains is either profit or | 收入会进来 支出会出来 剩下的就是利润 |
| 355 | a very long explanation in a meeting. | 一个很长的解释 在一次会议上。 |
| 356 | The formula goes like this. | 公式是这样的 |
| 357 | Profit equals revenue minus expenses translation. | 利润等于收入减去费用翻译。 |
| 358 | Money in minus money out equals feelings. | 金钱减钱等于感情 |
| 359 | Revenue is the money customers hand over because they believe the product has value. | 收入是客户交出的钱,因为他们相信产品有价值。 |
| 360 | Expenses are the cost of proving them right. | 费用是证明正确的费用。 |
| 361 | The difference is either encouraging or accompanied by a phrase like, damn. | 这种区别要么是令人鼓舞的,要么是伴随着一个短语,比如,该死的。 |
| 362 | I'm sorry. | 对不起 |
| 363 | Revenue minus COGS equals gross margin. | 收入减去COGS等于总比值。 |
| 364 | COGS is the cost of goods sold, meaning how much it costs to produce the thing you sold. | COGS是出售商品的成本,意思是生产你出售的商品的成本. |
| 365 | Gross margin minus operating expenses equals operating income. | 毛比值减去业务费用等于营业收入. |
| 366 | Subtract interest taxes and anything weird that happened this year. | 减除今年发生的利息税和任何奇怪事件. |
| 367 | And you get net income, which makes executives happy or net loss, | 你得到的净收入, 这让高管高兴或净损失, |
| 368 | which makes them schedule urgent meetings. | 这使得他们安排了紧急会议。 |
| 369 | Then cash flow statement enters the chat like, show me the money! | 然后现金流转表像进入聊天, 给我看钱! |
| 370 | Because companies die from cash shortages, not bad vibes. | 因为公司死于现金短缺,而不是不良的氛围。 |
| 371 | Cash flow statements keep it real. | 现金流量表是真实的。 |
| 372 | They look beyond the hype and track real money comings and goings. | 他们的眼光超越了喧闹 跟踪真正的钱来去去。 |
| 373 | Cash flow equals operating cash for everyday business activity, | 现金流等于日常商业活动的现金, |
| 374 | plus investing cash, buying big things like equipment and acquisitions, | 加上投资现金 购买设备 和收购 |
| 375 | plus financing cash, equity, debt, paying back debt. | 再加上为现金,股本,债务融资,还债. |
| 376 | A healthy company generates operating cash, | 健康公司能产生现金 |
| 377 | invests strategically and uses financing wisely | 战略性投资,明智地利用融资 |
| 378 | instead of like a spoiled zoomer with daddy's credit card. | 而不是像一个被宠坏的放大器 用爸爸的信用卡。 |
| 379 | Now you must be thinking, bank statements already record all these numbers, | 你一定在想 银行对账单已经记录了这些号码 |
| 380 | just chuck them into a spreadsheet and we good, right? | 把它们扔进电子表格里,我们就没事了,对吧? |
| 381 | Only if it were that simple. | 只有这么简单 |
| 382 | You're thinking of straightforward cash accounting. | 你在考虑直截了当的现金会计 |
| 383 | Businesses use a special trick called accrual accounting, | 企业使用一种叫做权责发生制会计的特殊伎俩, |
| 384 | which needlessly complicates life by recording revenue when earned, | 它不必要地使生活变得复杂,因为它记录收入, |
| 385 | not when collected, and expenses when incurred, not when paid. | 而不是收取时,或发生的费用,而不是支付时。 |
| 386 | So if someone buys your product in January but pays in July, | 所以如果有人在1月买下你的产品 而在7月支付, |
| 387 | accrual accounting says January, cash accounting says July. | 权责发生制会计为1月,现金会计为7月. |
| 388 | Your income statement says, congratulations, you're rich, | 你的收入表说,恭喜,你有钱 |
| 389 | while your bank account is like, you're broke, you're fucking poor. | 当你的银行账户像, 你破产,你他妈的穷人。 |
| 390 | So why use accrual accounting? | 为什么要使用权责发生制会计? |
| 391 | Because somehow it provides a bigger, truer financial picture, | 因为不知何故它提供了 一个更大的,更真实的财务情况, |
| 392 | making business performance more consistent and understandable. | 使经营业绩更加一致和易懂。 |
| 393 | It's weird at first, like reading a diary written out of order. | 一开始很怪异,比如读一本日记,写得不合秩序. |
| 394 | But by matching revenues with their related costs in the same period, | 但将收入与同期的相关成本相匹配, |
| 395 | it makes sure your numbers reflect when things happen, not when money moves. | 它能确保你的数字反映事情发生时,而不是货币移动时。 |
| 396 | Because otherwise, you'd be vibrating with the timings of bank transfers. | 否则,你会在银行转账的时间上振动。 |
| 397 | Now, let's keep moving because there's more trickery to uncover. | 现在,让我们继续前进 因为有更多的诡计可以发现。 |
| 398 | Ever heard of depreciation and amortization? | 听说过折旧和摊销吗? |
| 399 | They are accounting tricks that let you expense expensive things slowly over time. | 这些是会计的伎俩 让你慢慢花掉昂贵的东西 |
| 400 | Physical assets like buildings and machines depreciate. | 建筑物和机器等有形资产贬值。 |
| 401 | That means they lose value, and it's handy to know by how much. | 这意味着他们失去了价值,通过知道多少是有用的。 |
| 402 | Straight line depreciation equals cost minus salvage value divided by useful life. | 直线折旧等于成本减去残值除以使用寿命。 |
| 403 | Translation, instead of crying once, cry a little every year. | 翻译,与其哭一次,不如每年哭一点. |
| 404 | Accelerated depreciation is the I want tax benefits now method. | 加速折旧是现在我要的税收优惠方法。 |
| 405 | Amortization is the same thing, but for intangible assets like trademarks, | 摊销是一回事 但对于像商标这样的无形资产来说 |
| 406 | patents, or the cost of buying a company's sole. | 专利,或购买公司独资的成本。 |
| 407 | Next, inventory accounting. | 接下来是库存会计。 |
| 408 | Two big methods, FIFO, first in, first out, and LIFO, last in, first out. | 两种大法 FIFO先入后出,LIFO先出. |
| 409 | FIFO sells your oldest items first. | FIFO先卖你最老的东西 |
| 410 | LIFO sells your newest items first. | LIFO先卖你最新的东西 |
| 411 | FIFO makes profits look bigger when prices rise. | FIFO在物价上涨时使利润看起来更大. |
| 412 | LIFO makes profits look smaller, but taxes lower. | LIFO使利润看起来较小,但税收较低. |
| 413 | Companies choose strategies depending on whether they want to impress shareholders | 公司根据是否想打动股东而选择策略 |
| 414 | or avoid taxes. | 或避税. |
| 415 | Then, revenue recognition, which answers, when can you say you earned money? | 那么,收入确认, 答案是什么, 你什么时候可以说你挣的钱? |
| 416 | Well, did you actually deliver the goods? | 你真的送货了吗? |
| 417 | If yes, sure, go ahead. | 如果有,当然,请说。 |
| 418 | If no, then no. | 如果没有,那么没有。 |
| 419 | Next, we meet working capital, the stuff that keeps the business alive day to day. | 接下来,我们见到了周转资金, 那些维持日常商业活力的东西。 |
| 420 | Current assets minus current liabilities. | 流动资产减去流动负债。 |
| 421 | If high, congrats, you're breathing. | 如果高,恭喜,你在呼吸。 |
| 422 | If low, you're juggling bills. | 如果低,你杂耍的账单。 |
| 423 | If negative, call the bank. | 如果否定,请打电话给银行。 |
| 424 | And finally comes the classic MBA reality check. | 最后来了经典的MBA现实检查. |
| 425 | Cash is not profit. | 现金不是利润 |
| 426 | Profit is not cash. | 利润不是现金。 |
| 427 | Cash is real. | 现金是真实的。 |
| 428 | Profit is a social construct, a story told by a cruel accounting. | 利润是一种社会结构,一个残酷的会计所讲述的故事。 |
| 429 | You can have one without the other. | 你可以有一个没有另一个。 |
| 430 | Ideally, you want both. | 理想的,你想要两者。 |
| 431 | A company can be profitable and still go bankrupt, | 一个公司可以盈利 并且仍然破产, |
| 432 | like your favorite gym bro fainting in real life. | 就像你最喜欢的健身房兄弟 在现实生活中晕倒。 |
| 433 | OK, now that we've tickled the basics, we move into ratios, | 好吧,现在我们已经痒 基本,我们移动到比例, |
| 434 | the infamous comparison tools that turn numbers into more numbers, | 臭名昭著的比较工具 把数字变成更多的数字, |
| 435 | but smaller and more judgmental. | 但更小 更判断。 |
| 436 | Liquidity ratios ask, can we pay our bills? | 流动性比问,我们能支付我们的账单吗? |
| 437 | Examples, current ratio and quick ratio, | 实例、当前比率和快速比率, |
| 438 | which tell you if your short term finances are healthy or please send help. | 告诉你短期经济是否健康 或者请派人帮忙 |
| 439 | Current ratio equals current assets divided by current liabilities over one. | 流动比率等于流动资产除以流动负债大于1。 |
| 440 | You're breathing under one. | 你呼吸在一个。 |
| 441 | You're sweating. | 你在发汗。 |
| 442 | Leverage ratios assess how much debt are we juggling? | 杠杆比率评估我们有多少债务是杂合的? |
| 443 | Classic one is debt to equity equaling total debt divided by equity. | 典型的一是债务对股本等于债务总额除以股本. |
| 444 | Higher means riskier. | 更高意味着风险更大。 |
| 445 | Profitability ratios wonder, are we actually good at making money? | 利润率很奇怪,我们真的擅长赚钱吗? |
| 446 | And it's all about the margins. | 而说一切边际. |
| 447 | Gross operating and net. | 业务毛额和净额。 |
| 448 | We've tickled these earlier. | 我们早点碰过这个 |
| 449 | Tiny margins means you are working very hard to make very little. | 微小的边际意味着你非常努力地工作 来做很少。 |
| 450 | Efficiency ratios measure how quickly inventory moves or customers pay. | 效率比率衡量存货移动或客户付款的速度。 |
| 451 | Inventory turnover equals COGS divided by average inventory. | 库存周转额等于COGS除以平均库存。 |
| 452 | Higher turnover means fewer dusty products waiting for adoption. | 较高的营业额意味着等待收养的粉尘产品减少。 |
| 453 | Market ratios like price to earnings, P.E., market to book, | 市场比率,如价格对收入,P. E.,市场对账, |
| 454 | MB and earnings per share, EPS, | 甲基溴和每股收入,EPS, |
| 455 | compare your stock price to underlying fundamentals. | 把你的股票价格和基本价比起来 |
| 456 | They tell investors how appealing or shitty you look. | 他们告诉投资者你有多吸引人或低劣 |
| 457 | P. E. (英语). | |
| 458 | equals price divided by earnings per share. | 等于每股收入除以价格。 |
| 459 | High P.E. | 高级体育 |
| 460 | means we believe in you. | 这意味着我们相信你。 |
| 461 | Low P.E. | 低阴阳. |
| 462 | means we have questions. | 意味着我们有问题 |
| 463 | Ratios simplify complexity. | 比率简化了复杂性。 |
| 464 | If they look bad, fix the business or at least fix the PowerPoint. | 如果他们看起来不好,就解决生意 或者至少解决PowerPoint. |
| 465 | Now we zoom inside cost accounting. | 现在我们放大成本核算 |
| 466 | Fixed costs stay the same. | 固定费用保持不变。 |
| 467 | Variable costs change with activity. | 可变费用随活动而变化。 |
| 468 | Contribution margin is price minus variable cost, | 缴款比值为价格减去可变成本, |
| 469 | which tells you how much each unit contributes to fixed costs. | 它告诉你每个单位为固定成本贡献多少。 |
| 470 | Or in other words, money available to cover fixed costs, | 换句话说,可以用来支付固定费用的钱, |
| 471 | such as rent and salaries, and to generate profit. | 例如租金和工资,以及赚取利润。 |
| 472 | Breakeven分析问, | |
| 473 | how much do we need to sell before we stop losing money? | 在不输钱之前 我们要卖多少钱? |
| 474 | We've tickled its belly earlier in marketing. | 我们早些时候在推销时 已经把肚子痒了 |
| 475 | Now the formula. | 现在的公式。 |
| 476 | Breakeven units equals fixed costs divided by contribution margin. | 断面单位等于固定费用除以缴款比值。 |
| 477 | If variable cost is too close to price, the denominator becomes tiny. | 如果可变成本太接近价格,分母就会变得微小. |
| 478 | Your breakeven will shoot into the stratosphere, | 你的断面会射进平流层 |
| 479 | and you'll need to sell more units than exist on Earth. | 你得卖出比地球上更多的单位 |
| 480 | OK, enough accounting. | 好了,够了 |
| 481 | Let's dive into finance. | 让我们潜入金融。 |
| 482 | Actually, before finance, let's dip our toes into quantitative analysis, | 实际上,在金融之前,让我们把脚趾放到数量分析上, |
| 483 | the part of MBA where math pretends to make everything predictable. | MBA中数学假装让一切变得可以预测的部分. |
| 484 | Forecasting. | 预言. |
| 485 | Forecasting uses the past to guess the future using spreadsheets. | 预测用过去来用电子表格来猜未来. |
| 486 | Regression uses relationships between variables to pretend you're psychic. | 回归利用变量之间的关系来假装你是灵媒. |
| 487 | If one goes up, does the other go up? | 一个上去,另一个上去吗? |
| 488 | Down? | 下来? |
| 489 | Sideways? | 侧路? |
| 490 | Nobody knows. | 没有人知道。 |
| 491 | Probability theory. | 概率论. |
| 492 | Probability theory deals with the chances of things happening. | 概率论涉及事物发生的概率. |
| 493 | Probability equals number of desired outcomes divided by total outcomes. | 概率等于预期成果数除以总成果。 |
| 494 | Translation. | 翻译. |
| 495 | How likely is chaos? | 混乱的可能性有多大? |
| 496 | Expected value? | 预期值? |
| 497 | Weighted average of possible outcomes. | 可能结果加权平均数。 |
| 498 | Translation. | 翻译. |
| 499 | On average, is this really a good idea? | 平均来说,这是个好主意吗? |
| 500 | Variance and standard deviation. | 差异和标准偏差。 |
| 501 | Measure spread. | 测量扩展。 |
| 502 | Variance equals average of actual minus expected squared. | 差异等于实际减去预期平方的平均数。 |
| 503 | Standard deviation is square root of variance. | 标准偏差是差异的平方根 。 |
| 504 | Translation. | 翻译. |
| 505 | How bumpy is the future? | 未来有多颠簸? |
| 506 | High variance means it's going to be a roller coaster ride. | 高差异表示将进行过山车骑行. |
| 507 | Low variance says, relax, it's a walk in the park. | 低差异表示,放松,这是在公园散步. |
| 508 | Covariance confuses variance by adding directions. | 共性通过增加方向来混淆差异. |
| 509 | Decision trees. | 决策树. |
| 510 | Decision trees show choices and outcomes visually. | 决策树显示了选择和结果。 |
| 511 | Take each payoff, multiply by probability, and the best path wins. | 乘以概率 最佳道路获胜 |
| 512 | Sensitivity analysis. | 灵敏度分析. |
| 513 | Sensitivity analysis tests how fragile your plan is. | 灵敏度分析测试你的计划有多脆弱. |
| 514 | If changing one variable create massive swings, your plan needs a plan. | 如果改变一个变量 产生巨大的波动, 你的计划需要一个计划。 |
| 515 | Also, break-even analysis. | 还有 平衡分析 |
| 516 | Again. | 再来 |
| 517 | Then, cost-volume-profit analysis that ties together fixed costs, | 然后,成本-数量-利润分析 将固定成本联系起来, |
| 518 | variable costs, and profit to show how volume affects income. | 可变成本,以及显示数量如何影响收入的利润。 |
| 519 | More volume equals more profit, unless fixed costs sneak up on you. | 更多数量等于更多的利润,除非固定成本悄悄地发生在你身上. |
| 520 | If you need to double volume to break even, maybe don't. | 如果你需要加倍的音量来打破均匀,也许不要. |
| 521 | Finally, linear programming gives you a taste of optimization, | 最后,线性编程让你尝到优化的滋味, |
| 522 | allocating limited resources. | 分配有限的资源。 |
| 523 | Time, labor, money, optimally. | 时间,劳动,金钱,最好。 |
| 524 | You basically tell a computer, I'm short on everything except coffee. | 你基本上告诉一台电脑,我什么都缺 除了咖啡。 |
| 525 | Now, give me profit. | 现在,给我利润。 |
| 526 | The computer returns a solution. | 计算机返回一个解决方案。 |
| 527 | You take credit. | 汝当取功德. |
| 528 | Congratulations. | 祝贺你 |
| 529 | Your boss can now proudly declare, | 你老板现在可以骄傲地宣布 |
| 530 | That's my quant. | 这是我的量子。 |
| 531 | You're what? | 你说什么? |
| 532 | My quantitative. | 我的数量。 |
| 533 | My math specialist. | 我的数学专家 |
| 534 | Look at him. | 看着他 |
| 535 | Now, take a deep breath. | 现在,深呼吸。 |
| 536 | We're diving into finance, where money time travels. | 我们潜入金融领域, 金钱时间旅行。 |
| 537 | The core idea? | 核心点子? |
| 538 | Time value of money. | 钱的时间价值。 |
| 539 | Money today is worth more than money tomorrow. | 今天的钱比明天的钱还值钱 |
| 540 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 541 | Because today's money has earning potential. | 因为今天的钱有收入的潜力。 |
| 542 | While tomorrow's money has inflation, risk, | 虽然明天的钱有通货膨胀,风险, |
| 543 | and mysteriously disappearing potential. | 和神秘消失的潜力。 |
| 544 | Which leads us to discounting math magic | 这导致我们忽略了数学魔法 |
| 545 | that turns imaginary future cash into today cash. | 把想象中的未来现金变成今天的现金 |
| 546 | Present value, or what it's worth now, | 现值,或者现在的价值, |
| 547 | equals future value, or amount received later, | 等于未来价值或以后收到的金额, |
| 548 | divided by 1 plus r to the power of t. | 以1+r除为t的功率. |
| 549 | t is time period, days, months, years. | t是时间,天数,月份,年份. |
| 550 | r is the discount rate, | r是贴现率, |
| 551 | which equals original price minus selling price, | 等于原价减去售价, |
| 552 | or discount, divided by original price. | 或折扣,除以原价。 |
| 553 | Higher discount rate means future money shrinks more. | 较高的贴现率意味着未来的货币会更加萎缩. |
| 554 | To make sure investment is not doomed, | 为了保证投资不是注定的, |
| 555 | take all future cash flows, | 带走所有未来的现金流量, |
| 556 | discount them, and subtract the initial investment. | 减去初始投资。 |
| 557 | That's your NPV, or net present value. | 那是你的NPV 或者净现值 |
| 558 | Positive NPV, project is good. | 阳性NPV,项目是好的。 |
| 559 | Negative, run. | 没有,跑。 |
| 560 | Zero, you'll break even. | 零,你会打破均匀。 |
| 561 | Discount rate that makes NPV zero | 折价率为零 |
| 562 | is called internal rate of return, or IRR. | 称为内部返回率,或IRR。 |
| 563 | If IRR exceeds the company's minimum required rate of return, | 如果IRR超过了公司的最低规定回报率, |
| 564 | also known as hurdle rate, roll your sleeves. | 也称为障碍率, 滚你的袖子。 |
| 565 | Let's get ready to rumble. | 准备狂欢吧 |
| 566 | Moving on, the payback period. | 继续,回报期。 |
| 567 | It's the time until investment is recovered. | 现在是收回投资的时候了. |
| 568 | Simple, quick filling like fast food. | 简单,快速的填充 像快餐。 |
| 569 | But don't make it your go-to diet, | 但不要让它成为你的饮食, |
| 570 | because it ignores time value and long-term cash flows. | 因为它忽略了时间价值和长期现金流量. |
| 571 | Then, capital budgeting and valuation. | 然后,资本预算和估值。 |
| 572 | Capital budgeting uses NPV, IRR, | 资本预算编制使用净现值、IRR、 |
| 573 | and payback period to choose investments. | 以及选择投资的回报期。 |
| 574 | And valuation uses discounted cash flows | 估值采用贴现现金流量 |
| 575 | to guess what the whole company is worth. | 猜猜整个公司值多少钱 |
| 576 | Pick the ones with positive NPV, good IRR, | 选那些有阳性核磁共振 良好的核磁共振 |
| 577 | reasonable payback, and realistic valuation. | 合理的回报 现实的估价 |
| 578 | Don't pick the ones someone pitched using vibes. | 别选那些用气质布置的人 |
| 579 | Speaking of vibes, | 说到气氛, |
| 580 | OpenAI is worth a trillion dollars, apparently. | OpenAI显然价值一万亿美元. |
| 581 | So yeah, it's mostly guessing, hoping, and hyping, | 所以,它大部分是猜测,希望,和hyping, |
| 582 | till everyone believes it. | 直到每个人都相信它。 |
| 583 | Make that make sense. | 说得通 |
| 584 | Alrighty, time for some bond pricing basics. | 好吧,时间 一些债券定价基础。 |
| 585 | Bonds are fancy IOUs. | 债券是花哨的 |
| 586 | IOU literally comes from the phrase IOU. | IOU字面意思是来自IOU这个短语. |
| 587 | It's usually an informal document acknowledging debt. | 通常是一份承认债务的非正式文件. |
| 588 | Pricing depends on coupon or regular interest payments, | 定价取决于优惠券或定期利息支付, |
| 589 | discount rates, and maturity. | 折扣率和到期率。 |
| 590 | If interest rates rise, bond prices fall. | 如果利率上升,债券价格下降。 |
| 591 | If interest rates fall, bond prices rise, | 如果利率下降,债券价格上升, |
| 592 | like a seesaw, but sadder. | 像锯子,但更伤心。 |
| 593 | Next, risk-return trade-off. | 其次,风险回报权衡。 |
| 594 | It's the universal truth. | 普现世间真言. |
| 595 | Higher the risk, higher the return. | 风险增加,回报增加. |
| 596 | There's no free lunch, | 没有免费午餐 |
| 597 | except in poorly regulated markets. | 市场管制不严除外。 |
| 598 | And then there's beta, | 然后还有β, |
| 599 | a cute little financial metric | 可爱的金融指标 |
| 600 | that measures asset volatility | 衡量资产波动 |
| 601 | or how much a stock wiggles relative to the market. | 或股市波动多少 |
| 602 | Formula, very statsy. | 配方,非常不稳定。 |
| 603 | Just remember these, beta is one, asset is chill. | 记住这些,β是一体的,资产是寒冷的。 |
| 604 | Asset price moves in line with the market. | 资产价格随市场波动. |
| 605 | Beta greater than one, drama queen. | 贝塔超过一个,戏剧皇后。 |
| 606 | Larger gains in up markets, larger losses in down markets. | 上市收益较大,下市损失较大. |
| 607 | Beta less than one, less volatile, more stable, | β小于一个, 不稳定性小, 更稳定, |
| 608 | but with lower potential returns. | 但回报率较低 |
| 609 | Beta is negative, nobody knows. | 贝塔是负的,没有人知道。 |
| 610 | That's why portfolio theory says diversify. | 这就是为什么组合理论说多样化。 |
| 611 | Put eggs in multiple baskets, | 把鸡蛋放进多个篮子里 |
| 612 | preferably baskets that don't fall together. | 最好是不掉在一起的篮子 |
| 613 | Finally, the mighty WACC hurdle. | 最后,强大的WACC障碍。 |
| 614 | Weighted average, cost of capital. | 加权平均,资本成本. |
| 615 | You jump it or you fail. | 你跳下去或失败。 |
| 616 | Formula looks hella intimidating. | 公式看起来很吓人 |
| 617 | Ignore it till you need it. | 别管它,直到你需要它。 |
| 618 | It basically blends the cost of equity and debt | 它基本上混合了股本和债务的成本 |
| 619 | weighted by their share in how the company is financed. | 以公司融资方式的股份加权。 |
| 620 | It tells you the minimum return a project must earn | 它告诉你,一个项目必须获得的最低回报 |
| 621 | to not embarrass the company. | 别让公司难堪 |
| 622 | Lower WACC, easier to create value. | 下WACC,更容易创造值. |
| 623 | Higher WACC, good luck. | 再高一点,祝你好运 |
| 624 | Congratulations. | 祝贺你 |
| 625 | You survived marketing, accounting, quant, and finance. | 你从营销 会计 数量和金融中幸存下来 |
| 626 | That's a whole ass year of MBA in like 25 minutes. | 这是整个屁股一年 MBA在25分钟。 |
| 627 | Took me like 28 weeks to make it, but who cares? | 我花了28周才来 但谁在乎呢? |
| 628 | Actually, I do, cause it was supposed to be two. | 事实上,我有,因为它应该是两个。 |
| 629 | Two whole ass years of MBA and that too in 20 minutes. | 两整屁股的MBA 20分钟内也是 |
| 630 | But I failed because my ass is too OCD, | 但我失败了 因为我的屁股太OCD, |
| 631 | dumb and proud to half ass my way to the end. | 愚蠢和骄傲的屁股 一半我的方式到最后。 |
| 632 | So, unfortunately, there has to be a part two, | 所以,不幸的是,必须有一个第二部分, |
| 633 | but more unfortunately, chances of you finding part two | 但更不幸的是 你找到第二部分的机会 |
| 634 | or part two finding you are, well, they're not good, | 或第二部分发现你, 嗯,他们不是很好, |
| 635 | 因为这是YouTube 第二部分在YouTube上表现不好 | |
| 636 | So, if you want the whole thing, you'll have to like, | 所以,如果你想要 整件事,你必须喜欢, |
| 637 | subscribe, comment, and enable notifications. | 订阅、评论和启用通知。 |
| 638 | I mean, you just have to for your own sake, | 我的意思是,你只要为了你自己, |
| 639 | but that on its own may not be enough. | 但单靠自己可能是不够的。 |
| 640 | That's why I'll be uploading part two | 所以我才会上传第二部分 |
| 641 | in exactly one month from now. | 一个月后 |
| 642 | To make double sure you get it, bookmark this page, | 要双倍确保你得到它, 书签这一页, |
| 643 | set a reminder in your calendar, | 在历法中设置一个记念, |
| 644 | and check back 31 days later. | 31天后再检查一下 |
| 645 | And if it's not there, feel free to unsub, dislike, | 如果它不在那里, 感觉自由 不明,不喜欢, |
| 646 | and ghost me forever. | 永远缠着我 |
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