这本书去年为我赚了19.2万美元
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Investing is not as complicated as a lot of people think. | 投资并不像很多人想象的那样复杂。 |
| 0:03 | Some of the world's greatest investors, like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger rest his soul. | 世界上一些最伟大的投资者,比如沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格休息他的灵魂. |
| 0:08 | Talk about this all the time. | 常说此经. |
| 0:09 | It's not rocket science, and people tend to overcomplicate it. | 这不是火箭科学,人们往往过于复杂. |
| 0:13 | And if you haven't heard of Warren Buffett, at the time of this recording, | 如果你没听说过沃伦·巴菲特 在录音的时候 |
| 0:16 | he's the sixth richest person in the world, clocking in at $145 billion. | 他是世界上第六富有的人,以1,450亿美元计时。 |
| 0:22 | And he made his wealth as an investor. | 他以自己的财产为投资者。 |
| 0:24 | And in his younger years, Buffett was actually a disciple of Benjamin Graham, | 在他年轻的时候,巴菲特实际上是本杰明·格雷厄姆的弟子, |
| 0:28 | who's the author of the book, The Intelligent Investor, which this video is going to summarize. | 谁是书的作者, 智能投资者, 这个视频将总结。 |
| 0:32 | Buffett has even gone so far as to say that The Intelligent Investor is, quote, | 巴菲特甚至说 聪明的投资者是, |
展开字幕全文（308 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Investing is not as complicated as a lot of people think. | 投资并不像很多人想象的那样复杂。 |
| 2 | Some of the world's greatest investors, like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger rest his soul. | 世界上一些最伟大的投资者,比如沃伦·巴菲特和查理·芒格休息他的灵魂. |
| 3 | Talk about this all the time. | 常说此经. |
| 4 | It's not rocket science, and people tend to overcomplicate it. | 这不是火箭科学,人们往往过于复杂. |
| 5 | And if you haven't heard of Warren Buffett, at the time of this recording, | 如果你没听说过沃伦·巴菲特 在录音的时候 |
| 6 | he's the sixth richest person in the world, clocking in at $145 billion. | 他是世界上第六富有的人,以1,450亿美元计时。 |
| 7 | And he made his wealth as an investor. | 他以自己的财产为投资者。 |
| 8 | And in his younger years, Buffett was actually a disciple of Benjamin Graham, | 在他年轻的时候,巴菲特实际上是本杰明·格雷厄姆的弟子, |
| 9 | who's the author of the book, The Intelligent Investor, which this video is going to summarize. | 谁是书的作者, 智能投资者, 这个视频将总结。 |
| 10 | Buffett has even gone so far as to say that The Intelligent Investor is, quote, | 巴菲特甚至说 聪明的投资者是, |
| 11 | by far the best book on investing ever written. | 投资史上最好的一本书 |
| 12 | And I would definitely agree with him. | 我绝对同意他的意见。 |
| 13 | I've been using the principles from this book to skyrocket my own wealth in the stock market | 我用这本书的原理 在股市上暴涨自己的财富 |
| 14 | over the last 15 years. | 15年来 |
| 15 | And the first big lesson from The Intelligent Investor is the idea of Mr. Market. | 而"智能投资者"的第一个大教训是"市场先生"的想法. |
| 16 | So let's say you own a farm that generates a certain amount of profit every year, | 因此,让我们假设你拥有一个农场 每年产生一定的利润, |
| 17 | and you have a neighbor named Mr. Market. | 有个邻居叫市场先生 |
| 18 | And every day, Mr. Market knocks on your door and offers to buy your farm | 每天市场先生敲你的门 提出要买你的农场 |
| 19 | for a certain amount of money, let's say a million dollars. | 为了一定的金额, 让我们说一百万。 |
| 20 | Now, the first couple of weeks, the price he offers you is about the same, | 头几周 他给你的价钱差不多一样 |
| 21 | moving up or down a few percentage points. | 上下移动几个百分点。 |
| 22 | So you might think, huh, okay, my farm is worth about a million dollars. | 所以你可能会认为 我的农场价值约一百万 |
| 23 | But over the course of several years, you start to notice that Mr. Market is actually | 但几年来,你开始注意到 Market先生其实是 |
| 24 | not the normal, rational guy you thought he was when he first moved in next door. | 不是那个你以为他刚搬进隔壁的时候 正常、理智的人 |
| 25 | You realize that he's actually a lunatic who frequently takes complete leave of his senses. | 你知道他其实是个疯子 他经常完全失去理智 |
| 26 | Because some days, you see him skipping with joy on the way to your house, | 因为有朝一日,你看见他在去你家的路上 欣然跳过, |
| 27 | offering you $10 million for your farm. | 为你的农场提供一千万美元 |
| 28 | But a couple months later, you see him boarding up the windows to his house, | 但几个月后 你看到他登上了房子的窗户 |
| 29 | raving like a madman about how the world is coming to an end. | 胡说八道 说世界会怎样结束 |
| 30 | And he offers you just $50,000 for your entire farm, | 他只给你5万元的农场 |
| 31 | which is less money than your farm generates in profit in a single year. | 比你农场一年赚的钱还少 |
| 32 | And so you realize that when you're trying to figure out the true value of your farm, | 所以你意识到 当你试图找出你农场的真正价值时 |
| 33 | you can't just take what Mr. Market is offering you at face value. | 你不能随便拿市场先生给你的价钱 |
| 34 | You have to do some type of analysis to figure out the intrinsic value | 要找出内在价值 你必须做某种分析 |
| 35 | based on real business fundamentals, like how much profit you generate every year, | 基于真正的商业基础, 就像你每年产生多少利润, |
| 36 | how fast your farm is growing, how fast the price of produce is rising, | 你们的农场在增长, 农产品价格上涨, |
| 37 | and other factors like this. | 还有其他因素 |
| 38 | And the reason it's important to know this is because Mr. Market is never forcing you | 因为市场先生从来不强迫你 |
| 39 | to make a deal with him, he's just providing you with an opportunity to make a deal. | 为了和他做交易 他只是给你机会做交易 |
| 40 | So if you calculate that, based on the business fundamentals of your farm, | 所以,如果你计算, 根据你的农场的商业基础, |
| 41 | it's worth $3 million. | 价值300万美元。 |
| 42 | Then when Mr. Market comes a-knockin' and offers you $1 million, | 然后当Market先生来了一大笔钱 给你一百万 |
| 43 | you can turn him away. | 你可以让他离开。 |
| 44 | And when he offers you $10 million, you can take him up on his offer and sell. | 而当他给你1000万美元, 你可以接受他的提议并出售。 |
| 45 | In the next year, if you run into him at the grocery store, | 第二年 如果你在杂货店碰到他 |
| 46 | and nothing has fundamentally changed about the farm, | 农场根本没变 |
| 47 | but Mr. Market is going on one of his paranoid rants again | 但Market先生又发狂了 |
| 48 | and is trying to get rid of the farm as fast as possible, | 并试图尽快摆脱农场, |
| 49 | you can take him up on his offer again and buy it back at half a million dollars. | 你可以再次接受他的提议 用50万美元买回来 |
| 50 | Here's what Benjamin Graham is trying to teach you with the Mr. Market analogy. | 本杰明·格雷厄姆想用市场先生的类比教你 |
| 51 | Mr. Market is obviously the stock market. | 市场先生显然是股票市场。 |
| 52 | And when you buy a stock like Apple or Google or Microsoft, | 当你购买苹果或谷歌或微软等股票时 |
| 53 | you're not just buying some ticker symbol on a chart that moves up and down, | 你不只是在一张上下移动的图表上 买一些滴答符号 |
| 54 | you're essentially buying a percentage ownership in that actual company. | 你基本上正在买一个百分比所有权 在实际的公司。 |
| 55 | And Graham's philosophy is make your investing decisions | 而格雷厄姆的理念是决定你的投资 |
| 56 | based on what price you would pay to truly become a part owner in that company. | 根据你付出的代价 真正成为公司的一部分所有者。 |
| 57 | If little Susie down the street is selling stock in her lemonade stand, | 如果街上的小苏西在卖柠檬水摊上的股票 |
| 58 | which earns $10 a day, | 它每天挣10美元, |
| 59 | and you find out that little Susie is actually selling that lemonade illegally | 你发现小苏西实际上是非法出售柠檬水 |
| 60 | because she doesn't even have a food permit, | 因为她甚至没有食物许可 |
| 61 | and all the neighbors are getting sick after drinking her lemonade | 邻居都喝柠檬水生病了 |
| 62 | because little Susie never remembers to wash her damn hands, | 因为小苏西从来不记得洗手 |
| 63 | it doesn't matter if the stock market is valuing little Susie's lemonade company at $10 million. | 股市是否重视小苏西柠檬水公司1000万美元并不重要. |
| 64 | You should know that that's a stupid price to pay to buy into that company. | 你该知道 买进那家公司要付出这个愚蠢的代价 |
| 65 | Now, you might think that that's a ridiculous example. | 现在,你可能会认为 这是一个荒谬的例子。 |
| 66 | So let's look at some real world examples. | 让我们看看一些真实世界的例子。 |
| 67 | Here's a chart of American Express stock. | 这是美国运通股票的图表 |
| 68 | During the financial crisis of 2008, | 2008年金融危机期间, |
| 69 | the value of American Express stock went down 75% in less than a year. | 美国运通股票价值在不到一年的时间里下降了75%。 |
| 70 | Now, of course, there was a lot of fear and worry about the financial system during that time. | 当然,在那段时间里,对于金融系统,人们非常担心和担心。 |
| 71 | And rightfully so, the financial crisis was a huge deal. | 理所应当的是,金融危机是一个巨大的交易。 |
| 72 | But American Express is a huge global network | 但美国快递是一个巨大的全球网络 |
| 73 | that processes hundreds of billions of transactions every year. | 每年处理数千亿的交易 |
| 74 | Can you imagine trying to start a competing business to American Express today? | 你能想象今天想和美国快递公司竞争吗? |
| 75 | You can count the number of competitors they've had for the last three to four decades on one hand. | 你可以数一数过去三四十年的竞争者人数 |
| 76 | So the idea of that entire global network with all of their business assets | 所以整个全球网络的想法 及其所有的业务资产 |
| 77 | having their value evaporate 75% in less than one year? | 其价值在不到一年的时间内蒸发75%? |
| 78 | Some investors might interpret that | 一些投资人可能会解释 |
| 79 | as Mr. Market going on one of his mad ravings again and overreacting. | Market先生又在发疯 反应过度 |
| 80 | Investors that just held on to their investment and did nothing | 投资者坚持投资,却一无所获 |
| 81 | would have recovered and would be up 500% today from the previous peak | 本来可以恢复 并且今天会比前一个峰值上升500% |
| 82 | from before the financial crisis. | 从金融危机之前。 |
| 83 | And the people who took advantage and bought more shares at ultra-cheap prices | 以及那些以超低价收购更多股票的人 |
| 84 | when Mr. Market went completely bonkers | 当Market先生完全疯了 |
| 85 | would be up 2,500% on their investment in just 15 years. | 在短短的15年里,他们的投资将增加250%。 |
| 86 | That means if you invested $100,000 when the price went to its lowest, | 这意味着如果你投资10万美元 当价格降到最低, |
| 87 | in just 15 years, it would have been worth $2.6 million. | 在短短的15年里, 它的价值260万美元。 |
| 88 | Now, for our Gen Z listeners, let's take a look at a more recent example, Marriott. | 现在,对于我们的Gen Z听众来说,让我们来看看最近的一个例子,Marriott. |
| 89 | During the COVID crash in 2020, the value of Marriott stock went down by 60% in just six weeks. | 2020年COVID空难期间,万豪股票价值仅6周就下降了60%. |
| 90 | Now, Marriott is worth tens of billions of dollars. | 现在,万豪价值数百亿. |
| 91 | They generate billions of dollars in revenue every year. | 它们每年产生数十亿美元的收入。 |
| 92 | They have over 30 brands in almost 9,000 properties across 140 countries. | 它们在140个国家的近9 000个房产中拥有30多个品牌。 |
| 93 | They have the most popular points program for frequent business travelers. | 他们对频繁的商务旅行者有最受欢迎的积分方案. |
| 94 | It makes sense for the stock price to drop in times of fear and uncertainty, | 股价在恐惧和不确定的时候下跌是有道理的, |
| 95 | especially since nobody knew how long COVID was going to stick around | 特别是因为没人知道COVID会待多久 |
| 96 | or how long travel would be locked down for. | 或者旅行会持续多久 |
| 97 | But a 60% drop in value in six weeks? | 但是6周内价值下降60%? |
| 98 | Investors who felt that Mr. Market was getting a little paranoid there | 觉得市场先生有点偏执的投资者 |
| 99 | and ended up buying Marriott stock after this crash | 在这次空难之后 最终买下了万豪的股票 |
| 100 | would have made a 330% return on their investment in just four years. | 在短短的四年内 他们的投资回报率就会达到330% |
| 101 | Graham's disciple Warren Buffett has a great quote to summarize this entire concept. | 格雷厄姆的弟子沃伦·巴菲特(英语:Warren Buffett)有一个很好的引文来总结这个整个概念. |
| 102 | Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. | 当别人贪婪和贪婪的时候,当别人害怕的时候,你应当敬畏。 |
| 103 | And this segues really nicely into the next big lesson from the book, | 这本书的下一个大课 |
| 104 | which is to require a margin of safety. | 也就是需要一定的安全范围。 |
| 105 | Investing is always going to have some degree of risk, | 投资总是会有一定程度的风险, |
| 106 | but literally anything in life has risk. | 但实际上生命中的一切都有风险 |
| 107 | Sitting inside your house has risk because a plane could crash into it. | 坐在你家里有危险 因为飞机可能会撞到它 |
| 108 | Holding your money in a checking account has risk | 在支票账户里存钱有风险 |
| 109 | because it could be severely devalued by inflation. | 因为通货膨胀可能严重贬值。 |
| 110 | So risk is a spectrum. | 因此,风险是一个谱。 |
| 111 | And while you can't completely get rid of it, | 虽然你无法完全摆脱它, |
| 112 | you can do things to reduce it and therefore tilt the scales a bit more in your favor. | 你可以做一些事情来减少它, 因此倾斜的天平 一点点有利于你。 |
| 113 | So let's say you're a civil engineer and you build a bridge | 所以说你是土木工程师 搭桥 |
| 114 | and use your fancy college education to calculate | 用你的高校教育来计算 |
| 115 | that this bridge can hold 50,000 pounds without breaking. | 这座桥可以保持5万磅而不破裂。 |
| 116 | When you go to the state authorities, | 当你去州当局, |
| 117 | you're not going to tell them that this bridge is limited to 50,000 pounds. | 你不会告诉他们 这座桥只有5万磅 |
| 118 | You're going to tell them that they should not exceed 45,000 pounds or 40,000 pounds | 你要告诉他们 他们不应该超过45,000磅或4万磅 |
| 119 | because there's always some risk of the unknown. | 因为总是有未知的危险 |
| 120 | And you want to protect yourself with a buffer, which Graham calls your margin of safety. | 你想用缓冲器保护自己 Graham称之为你的安全范围 |
| 121 | So when you calculate what you think is a fair valuation for a company's stock, | 所以当你计算你认为 公平估价公司股票时 |
| 122 | Graham suggests to apply a margin of safety | Graham建议采用安全系数 |
| 123 | by only buying if the price dips a certain amount below what you think is the right value. | 只有在价格低于你所认为的正确价值时,才能购买。 |
| 124 | He suggests that if you're buying a company's bonds, | 他建议如果你买公司的债券 |
| 125 | and if you don't know what a bond is, | 如果你不知道什么是纽带, |
| 126 | bonds pay out a fixed amount of interest every X amount of months until the bond matures, | 债券每X个月支付一笔固定利息,直到债券到期, |
| 127 | kind of like a bank CD. | 有点像一张银行CD |
| 128 | So if you're buying a bond | 所以,如果你买债券 |
| 129 | and you're trying to figure out the risk of the company defaulting on that bond, | 你试图找出 公司违约的风险 在债券, |
| 130 | then you should look for a margin of safety where, | 那你应该找一个安全的地方 |
| 131 | even if business slows down for that company, | 即使公司生意减速 |
| 132 | they have enough financial padding that they can weather a slowdown or a recession | 它们有足够的资金,可以应付减速或衰退 |
| 133 | and not go under. | 并且不要下潜。 |
| 134 | And this concept of risk management is a recurring theme throughout the book. | 而这种风险管理概念是整个书中反复出现的主题. |
| 135 | And it shows up in a lot of different ways because | 它以不同的方式出现 因为 |
| 136 | Graham explains how properly understanding in managing risk | Graham解释如何正确理解风险管理 |
| 137 | is a huge part of being an intelligent investor. | 是个聪明的投资者 |
| 138 | And part of that risk management process is having a clear understanding | 风险管理过程的一部分是 清楚了解 |
| 139 | of your own personal situation and risk tolerance. | 个人处境和风险承受能力。 |
| 140 | Graham says that there's basically two categories of investors. | 格雷厄姆说,基本上有两类投资者. |
| 141 | Defensive and enterprising. | 防御而进. |
| 142 | Defensive investors encapsulate the vast majority of the population. | 防御性投资者将绝大多数人口包围起来。 |
| 143 | It's regular people who can follow a pretty standard playbook for investing. | 是普通人可以遵循 相当标准的游戏本投资。 |
| 144 | Here are some of the strategies Graham outlines for defensive investors. | 以下是Graham为防御投资者提出的一些战略纲要。 |
| 145 | One, diversify your investments. | 一,分散投资. |
| 146 | Don't put all your eggs in a single basket. | 别把鸡蛋都放在一个篮子里 |
| 147 | Graham lays out some statistics for how many people | Graham为多少人提供了一些统计数据 |
| 148 | over-concentrate their investments into just a single company, | 他们的投资过度集中在一个单一的公司, |
| 149 | like the company they work for. | 就像他们工作的公司 |
| 150 | This is incredibly risky for a lot of different reasons. | 由于许多不同的原因,这是极其危险的。 |
| 151 | Something that's called out in the book's commentary notes | 书评笔记里提到的 |
| 152 | is that in today's times, a great way to diversify | 在今天的时代, 多样化的伟大方式 |
| 153 | is with something like an index fund that tracks the S&P 500, | 有了类似指数基金 跟踪S&P500, |
| 154 | which matches the performance of the 500 largest companies | 与500家大公司的业绩相匹配 |
| 155 | listed on the stock exchange in the United States. | 在美国证券交易所上市。 |
| 156 | Which brings us to point number two, | 这让我们到了第二点, |
| 157 | which is to stick with large, prominent companies. | 即与大型知名公司合作 |
| 158 | If you want to be a follower of Graham's teachings, | 如果你想成为格雷厄姆教义的追随者 |
| 159 | then unsubscribe from all those shitty newsletters | 然后不订阅所有这些烂通讯 |
| 160 | that try to peddle you penny stocks as the next big thing. | 试图把你的硬币股票当做下一个大事 |
| 161 | Large, well-established companies | 大型、成熟的公司 |
| 162 | with a long and successful track record | 有着长期和成功的记录 |
| 163 | are a better place to be according to Graham. | 据Graham说,这是一个更好的地方。 |
| 164 | And again, you can get exposure to these with an S&P 500 index fund. | 再说一次,你可以用一个S&P500指数基金来接触这些。 |
| 165 | Point number three, dollar cost average. | 第三点,美元平均成本。 |
| 166 | This is the idea where you take a fixed amount of money | 这就是你拿固定数额钱的主意 |
| 167 | that you can afford to invest every month | 每月可以投资 |
| 168 | and you do it consistently every month without fail, like clockwork. | 你每个月都如时钟般坚持不懈 |
| 169 | Ken Fisher, the billionaire founder of Fisher Investments, | 肯·费舍尔 费舍尔投资公司的亿万富翁创始人 |
| 170 | has a famous quote that summarizes this idea really well. | 有个著名的引文 很好地总结了这个想法。 |
| 171 | He says, time in the market beats timing the market. | 他说,在市场上的时间 胜过市场的时间。 |
| 172 | There's an entire subspecialty of research called behavioral finance | 整个研究的分支叫做行为金融 |
| 173 | that's really fascinating. | 这真的很有趣。 |
| 174 | I'll be doing some videos on it in the future, | 以后我会拍一些录像 |
| 175 | but there's overwhelming research that shows | 但有压倒性的研究表明 |
| 176 | that humans are notoriously bad at timing the market. | 人类在市场时机上非常糟糕 |
| 177 | Like you always hear the advice, buy low, sell high, | 就像你总是听到建议,买低,卖高 |
| 178 | but it's almost like we're hardwired | 但它几乎就像我们硬线 |
| 179 | to make poor timing decisions because of our emotions. | 因为我们的情绪 做出糟糕的时机决定 |
| 180 | And so dollar cost averaging | 所以,美元平均成本 |
| 181 | takes that psychological disadvantage out of the equation. | 把心理上的缺点从方程式中取出。 |
| 182 | Now, what Graham calls an enterprising investor | 格雷厄姆所说的有创意的投资者 |
| 183 | is someone who might be more experienced or savvy. | 可能更经验丰富或更体贴的人 |
| 184 | And so they might stray from these general guidelines | 他们可能会偏离这些一般准则 |
| 185 | because they have a particularly specialized set of knowledge | 因为他们有一套特别专门的知识, |
| 186 | that gives them an advantage in certain areas of investing. | 让他们在某些投资领域享有优势。 |
| 187 | So this could be like famously successful hedge fund managers | 所以,这可以像著名的成功 对冲基金管理者 |
| 188 | like Ray Dalio or John Paulson. | 就像雷·达利奥或约翰·保罗森 |
| 189 | These guys are not dollar cost averaging into the S&P 500. | 这些家伙不是平均美元成本 到S&P500。 |
| 190 | They have dedicated their entire lives and careers | 他们奉献了一生和事业 |
| 191 | to being extremely savvy investors that can beat the averages. | 成为超乎寻常的投资者, |
| 192 | But most people are not professional hedge fund managers, | 但大多数人都不是专业的对冲基金经理 |
| 193 | which leads us to the next lesson, | 使我们获得下一个教训, |
| 194 | which is that the same investment can have different degrees | 也就是说,同样的投资可以有不同的程度 |
| 195 | of actual risk to different people. | 给不同的人带来实际风险。 |
| 196 | And this builds even more on the earlier lesson | 这更能借鉴早期的教训 |
| 197 | of really understanding your personal situation | 真正了解你个人情况 |
| 198 | and investing accordingly. | 和相应的投资。 |
| 199 | The book gives a really good example on this | 这本书就是一个很好的例子 |
| 200 | by talking about mortgages. | 通过谈论抵押贷款。 |
| 201 | So imagine you have a situation | 想象一下你的情况 |
| 202 | where interest rates are really low | 利率确实很低的地方 |
| 203 | and there's a big housing boom where everyone's trying to buy a house. | 和有一个巨大的住房繁荣 在那里每个人都试图买房子。 |
| 204 | And you've got these two families who each buy a house. | 你有两个家庭 每人买房子 |
| 205 | In this example, let's say that the two houses are identical | 举个例子说两院都一样 |
| 206 | and right next door to each other. | 紧挨着对方 |
| 207 | Now, family one is basically retired | 现在,一家人基本退休了 |
| 208 | and the town where they bought this house, | 和他们买下这所房子的城市, |
| 209 | they grew up in this town their whole lives, right? | 他们在这个小镇长大 一辈子,对不对? |
| 210 | They have a ton of family and friends in this town. | 他们有很多亲朋好友 |
| 211 | Their kids go to school in this town. | 他们的孩子在这个镇上上学。 |
| 212 | So they know with a really high degree of certainty | 所以他们非常肯定地知道 |
| 213 | that they're gonna stay in this house for a really, really long time. | 他们会在这房子里待很久 |
| 214 | At least 10 to 15 years. | 至少10到15岁 |
| 215 | And they're happy. | 而且他们很快乐。 |
| 216 | They're able to lock in a super low interest rate on their mortgage, | 他们可以锁定超低利率的抵押贷款, |
| 217 | super low monthly payments. | 每月超低额付款。 |
| 218 | They're not paying rent anymore. | 他们不再付房租了 |
| 219 | It's a great financial move. | 财经大动. |
| 220 | Now, right next door, you have family two. | 现在,就在隔壁,你有两个家庭。 |
| 221 | And family two is just a husband and wife. | 而二家只是一夫一妻. |
| 222 | They don't have kids. | 他们没有孩子。 |
| 223 | They don't have any friends or family in the area. | 他们在该地区没有任何朋友或家人. |
| 224 | They don't really have anything tying them to this town. | 他们真的没有什么 他们绑在这个小镇。 |
| 225 | And historically, they've moved to cities and states every few years | 历史上,他们每隔几年就搬到城市和州去 |
| 226 | when they got better job offers somewhere else. | 当他们得到更好的工作机会 在别的地方。 |
| 227 | And they really just bought this house as a type of investment | 他们真的买了这房子 作为一种投资 |
| 228 | so they could stop paying rent. | 所以他们可以停止支付租金。 |
| 229 | Now, a couple of years later, they get laid off from their jobs | 几年后 他们被解雇了 |
| 230 | or they get job offers that'll give them a 40% pay raise. | 或者他们得到工作机会 给他们40%的薪水 |
| 231 | But they have to move to a different state to take those new jobs. | 但他们必须搬到另一个州去从事这些新工作。 |
| 232 | And obviously, they're gonna take them | 显然,他们会带走他们 |
| 233 | because there's really nothing keeping them in this town. | 因为镇上没有什么东西能留住他们 |
| 234 | So they have to sell the house. | 所以他们得卖掉房子 |
| 235 | But that year, interest rates skyrocketed. | 但当年,利率暴涨. |
| 236 | The housing market is way down. | 住房市场已经下滑。 |
| 237 | And after realtor commissions and closing fees, | 在房地产经纪人佣金和结账费之后 |
| 238 | they actually have to take a pretty big loss on their house. | 他们的房屋损失惨重 |
| 239 | Now, if they stayed in their house for 10 to 15 years, | 如果他们在自己的房子里呆了10到15年 |
| 240 | sure, it might have been a great investment. | 当然,这可能是一个伟大的投资。 |
| 241 | But because of their specific personal situation | 但因为他们个人的具体情况 |
| 242 | where they're forced to sell out of an investment at an inopportune time, | 他们被迫在不适宜的时候 将投资卖掉 |
| 243 | what was a great investment for their neighbors | 对他们邻居来说,这是一笔巨大的投资 |
| 244 | was a horrible investment for them | 对他们来说是个可怕的投资 |
| 245 | because they had a higher likelihood of being forced to sell early. | 因为他们更有可能被迫提前出售。 |
| 246 | So Graham argues that this general principle | 因此,格雷厄姆认为这个一般原则 |
| 247 | should be applied to your investment strategy. | 应用到您的投资策略中。 |
| 248 | The investment portfolio of a retired widow in her 60s, | 一个60多岁的退休寡妇的投资组合 |
| 249 | who's the primary caretaker of her three young grandchildren, | 她是她三个小孙子的主要照顾者 |
| 250 | should probably be totally different | 应该是完全不同的 |
| 251 | than the investment portfolio of a 25-year-old | 比25岁的投资组合 |
| 252 | who has a degree in finance and works in the investment industry. | 拥有金融学位并在投资行业工作。 |
| 253 | Now, interestingly enough, Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett | 现在,有趣的是,本杰明·格雷厄姆和沃伦·巴菲特 |
| 254 | do have some disagreements over investment philosophy. | 在投资哲学上确实有一些分歧。 |
| 255 | One of those areas they disagree on | 他们意见不一的领域之一 |
| 256 | is the idea of buying the stock of companies that you know. | 就是买你认识的公司股票 |
| 257 | So Buffett recommends buying companies that are in | 因此,巴菲特推荐 收购公司在 |
| 258 | what he calls your circle of competence. | 他称之为你的能力圈。 |
| 259 | The idea is if you really know the companies and understand them, | 想法是,如果你真的 了解和理解公司, |
| 260 | you'll be more likely to succeed | 你会更可能成功 |
| 261 | than if you branch out into areas where you're not as familiar. | 而不是你分到一些你不太熟悉的地方 |
| 262 | And this can make a lot of sense, | 这能说得通 |
| 263 | especially from a risk management point of view, | 特别是从风险管理的角度来看, |
| 264 | because the area where a lot of people get burned | 因为很多人被烧伤的地方 |
| 265 | is when they start investing in things that they don't understand. | 当他们开始投资 他们不明白的东西。 |
| 266 | They might just be buying those things | 他们可能只是买这些东西 |
| 267 | because everyone around them is doing it. | 因为周围的人都在做 |
| 268 | But Graham argues that this buy what you know mentality | 但格雷厄姆认为这能买到你知道的心态 |
| 269 | can actually be dangerous because it leads to a form of overconfidence | 因为它会导致一种过度自信 |
| 270 | called home bias, | 所谓的家庭偏见, |
| 271 | where the more you feel like you already know about a company or a stock, | 在那里,你觉得 你已经知道 关于公司或股票, |
| 272 | the less likely you are to probe it for weaknesses. | 你越不可能去调查它的弱点 |
| 273 | He provides some statistics that back this theory up, | 他提供了一些统计 支持这个理论, |
| 274 | like the fact that 401k investors | 就像401k的投资者 |
| 275 | keep between 25 to 30 percent of their retirement funds | 保留25%至30%的退休基金 |
| 276 | in the stock of the company they work for. | 在他们工作的公司的股票。 |
| 277 | And a lot of investors like this got their finances absolutely destroyed | 很多这样的投资人 财务被彻底毁了 |
| 278 | when companies like Enron or Signature Bank | 当公司如安然银行或签名银行 |
| 279 | just collapsed pretty much overnight. | 刚崩溃几乎一夜。 |
| 280 | And the people who work there, | 和在那里工作的人, |
| 281 | who had 30 percent of their investments in their employer stock, | 拥有30%的雇主投资; |
| 282 | saw their money vanish along with their jobs. | 他们的钱和工作一起消失 |
| 283 | So now they're out of money and they're out of a job, double the risk. | 所以现在他们没钱又失业了 风险翻了一番 |
| 284 | As Graham writes in the book, | 正如格雷厄姆在书中写道, |
| 285 | in short, familiarity breeds complacency. | 简言之,熟悉会滋生自满情绪。 |
| 286 | The more familiar a stock is, | 越是熟悉的股票是, |
| 287 | the more likely it is to turn a defensive investor into a lazy one | 越有可能把防守投资者变成懒惰者 |
| 288 | who thinks that there's no need to do any homework. | 他们认为不需要做任何功课。 |
| 289 | Don't let this happen to you. | 别让这种事发生在你身上 |
| 290 | Now, a happy medium approach that Graham does approve of | 现在,一个快乐的中 方法,格雷厄姆确实赞成 |
| 291 | is that you can still buy what you know | 你还是可以买到你知道的 |
| 292 | so you don't get burned on investments that you don't understand. | 那样你就不会因为投资被你不明白而烧掉 |
| 293 | But you should simultaneously be following the other principles from the book in parallel, | 但你应该同时遵循书中的其他原则, |
| 294 | meaning that you diversify | 意味着你多样化 |
| 295 | instead of putting your entire investment portfolio into just one or two companies, | 而不是把你的全部投资组合 仅仅一两个公司, |
| 296 | and that you don't get lazy | 而且你不会变得懒惰 |
| 297 | and still do the work to actually analyze the businesses that you're investing in | 并且仍然做工作 实际分析 你投资的企业 |
| 298 | instead of just buying them because you feel like they're good companies | 而不是仅仅买下他们 因为你觉得他们是好公司 |
| 299 | since you see them everywhere. | 既然你到处都看见了 |
| 300 | Now, if you want to dive deeper into topics like finance and investing, | 现在,如果你想潜入 更深入的话题,如金融 和投资, |
| 301 | I'm linking some related videos on the screen that I highly recommend, | 我正在连接一些相关的视频 在屏幕上 我强烈推荐, |
| 302 | like my summary of Morgan Housel's book, The Psychology of Money. | 就像我对摩根·豪斯的书《金钱心理学》的总结 |
| 303 | And if you like this summary and you want to see more like it, | 如果你喜欢这个总结 并且你想看到更多的像它, |
| 304 | please do me a favor and hit that like and subscribe button. | 帮我个忙,按下按钮 |
| 305 | It really helps support this channel | 帮助支持此频道 |
| 306 | so I can keep coming out with more content just like this. | 这样我就可以继续 以更多的内容就像这样。 |
| 307 | Thanks again for watching. | 再次感谢您的观看。 |
| 308 | Good luck in your adventure, and I'll see you in the next one. | 祝你的冒险好运 下次见 |
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