【双语音+文稿】（完整对话）经济学教授金刻羽博士深度拆解中美
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剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 【双语音+文稿】（完整对话）经济学教授金刻羽博士深度拆解中美 | 48:39 |
P1 · 【双语音+文稿】（完整对话）经济学教授金刻羽博士深度拆解中美局势、中国经济与投资新方向 p01 英文版 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:12 | It is my honor to introduce Dr. Kay Eugene, an esteemed economist, author, and a professor | 我很荣幸介绍凯·尤金博士 著名经济学家、作家和教授 |
| 0:20 | at the London School of Economics. | 在伦敦经济学院 |
| 0:23 | As a brief background, Dr. Jane's career is marked by | 作为简短的背景,简博士的职业生涯标志是: |
| 0:26 | her work on global macroeconomics and international finance, with a focus on the evolving roles | 她在全球宏观经济学和国际金融方面的工作,重点是不断变化的作用 |
| 0:33 | of the Asian economies on the world. | 亚洲经济体在世界。 |
| 0:36 | Between 2009 and 2016, she was an assistant professor | 2009年至2016年间,她担任助理教授. |
| 0:40 | at the London School of Economics, later advancing to associate professor, and she's also served | 在伦敦经济学院,后来升为副教授,她还服务于 |
| 0:48 | as visiting professor at Yale University and the UC Berkeley. | 担任耶鲁大学和加州大学伯克利分校客座教授. |
| 0:53 | In 2014, she was named Young | 2014年,她被命名为杨 |
| 0:55 | Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. | 世界经济论坛的全球领袖。 |
展开字幕全文（876 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | It is my honor to introduce Dr. Kay Eugene, an esteemed economist, author, and a professor | 我很荣幸介绍凯·尤金博士 著名经济学家、作家和教授 |
| 2 | at the London School of Economics. | 在伦敦经济学院 |
| 3 | As a brief background, Dr. Jane's career is marked by | 作为简短的背景,简博士的职业生涯标志是: |
| 4 | her work on global macroeconomics and international finance, with a focus on the evolving roles | 她在全球宏观经济学和国际金融方面的工作,重点是不断变化的作用 |
| 5 | of the Asian economies on the world. | 亚洲经济体在世界。 |
| 6 | Between 2009 and 2016, she was an assistant professor | 2009年至2016年间,她担任助理教授. |
| 7 | at the London School of Economics, later advancing to associate professor, and she's also served | 在伦敦经济学院,后来升为副教授,她还服务于 |
| 8 | as visiting professor at Yale University and the UC Berkeley. | 担任耶鲁大学和加州大学伯克利分校客座教授. |
| 9 | In 2014, she was named Young | 2014年,她被命名为杨 |
| 10 | Global Leader by the World Economic Forum. | 世界经济论坛的全球领袖。 |
| 11 | Dr. Jane's expertise has made her a sought-after | 简博士的专长让她成为了追求者 |
| 12 | voice for major global institutions, including the World Bank, the International Monetary | 代表主要全球机构,包括世界银行、国际货币 |
| 13 | Fund, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. | 纽约联邦储备银行 |
| 14 | Dr. Jane has also held various roles at top | Jane医生也担任过各种职务 |
| 15 | financial institutions, such as Credit Suisse, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and JP Morgan, | 瑞士信贷、高盛、摩根斯坦利和JP摩根等金融机构 |
| 16 | and she's currently serving as a non-executive director at Richmont Group. | 她目前担任里希蒙特集团的非执行董事. |
| 17 | Dr. Jane's analysis | Jane医生的分析 |
| 18 | has guided policymakers, business leaders, and investors across the world, with her work appearing | 指导了世界各地的决策者、商界领袖和投资者,她的工作出现了 |
| 19 | in the Financial Times and the South China Morning Post, and even publications issued in collaboration | 在《金融时报》和《南华早报》上,甚至还有合作发行的出版物 |
| 20 | with regulatory bodies, such as the China Banking Regulatory Commission. | 与中国银行业监督管理委员会等监管机构. |
| 21 | Today, we are privileged | 今天,我们享有特权 |
| 22 | to hear her perspectives on the critical economic and geopolitical forces shaving the futures of | 倾听她对关键经济力量和地缘政治力量的看法 |
| 23 | the US and Asia. | 美国和亚洲 |
| 24 | Please join me in welcoming her and Paul and Frederick on stage. | 请和我一起欢迎她和保罗和弗雷德里克上台 |
| 25 | Thank you, | 谢谢 |
| 26 | Eugene. | 尤金 尤金 |
| 27 | Welcome to Hong Kong. | 欢迎来到香港 |
| 28 | It's great to have you here with us and we're really happy to have | 很高兴你和我们在一起 我们真的很高兴 |
| 29 | someone with us who is going really to help us analyze the world situation, which is complicated | 和我们一起的人 将真正帮助我们分析世界局势, 这很复杂 |
| 30 | to say the least. | 至少说一句 |
| 31 | Maybe before we start, what I suggest is for the coming 20 minutes, we'll be | 也许在我们开始之前,我建议 接下来的20分钟,我们将 |
| 32 | asking questions, talking about the current situation in China out of it, and then we will | 问问题,谈谈中国的现状,然后我们将 |
| 33 | give the mic to the audience, and please feel free to ask questions. | 给观众麦克风 请随意提问 |
| 34 | So let's jump straight into it. | 我们直接跳进去吧 |
| 35 | We have a new president in the US, a new administration. | 我们在美国有了新的总统,一个新的政府。 |
| 36 | Trump won, was pretty strong | 川普赢了,很强壮 |
| 37 | with China. | 与中国。 |
| 38 | Then you had the Biden administration, which was perhaps less vocal, but certainly trying | 然后,你有拜登政府, 它也许没有那么大声, 但肯定尝试 |
| 39 | to hurt even more. | 伤害更多。 |
| 40 | How will Trump 2 look like? | 特朗普2会怎么样? |
| 41 | First of all, thank you so much for having me. | 首先,谢谢你邀请我 |
| 42 | It's great to be here and privileged to be here with your audience. | 很高兴能在这里和观众在一起 |
| 43 | This is obviously the key | 这显然是关键 |
| 44 | question that everyone is asking. | 每个人都在问这个问题。 |
| 45 | I think there will be a difference, not only with Trump 2 versus | 不仅与特朗普2对决 |
| 46 | Trump 1, but also China's reaction to the Trump administration. | 特朗普1号,但也有中国对特朗普政府的反应. |
| 47 | The first time around, I would | 我第一次来的时候 |
| 48 | say a lot of the focus is obviously the first trade wars. | 说很多焦点显然是第一次贸易战争. |
| 49 | China wasn't really sure about what | 中国不太确定什么 |
| 50 | exactly the goal was. | 目标正是 |
| 51 | Actually, we probably still are not sure what his goals with the trade war is, | 事实上,我们可能还不知道 他的目标是什么 在贸易战争, |
| 52 | but they were trying to feel the parameters during the trade war. | 但是在贸易战争中 他们试图感受到参数 |
| 53 | So the reaction was strong. | 因此反应强烈. |
| 54 | It was | 这是 |
| 55 | a little bit learning along the way and not quite sure exactly where this is going. | 一点点的学习 沿途, 并不太确定 确切这是向何处去。 |
| 56 | I think this | 我觉得 |
| 57 | time around, the reaction would be very different because they've had Trump 1.0. | 因为他们有特朗普1.0。 |
| 58 | First of all, | 首先,我们... |
| 59 | I should say that in the interim years, there has been a lot more of indifference towards which US | 我要说,在中间的几年里,美国更加冷漠。 |
| 60 | presidential candidate. | 总统候选人. |
| 61 | I think a couple years back, their hope was to normalize to the extent | 我想几年前 他们的希望是正常化 |
| 62 | possible trade and investment, but fully understand that technology is going in two separate ways. | 可能的贸易与投资,但完全理解技术正在以两种不同的方式发展。 |
| 63 | So | 这么说 |
| 64 | they still had that kind of aspiration. | 他们还有那种愿望 |
| 65 | So this time around, first of all, I think there will be | 所以这次,首先,我想会有 |
| 66 | a reaction, but it won't be anything major. | 一种反应,但它不会是什么重大。 |
| 67 | It won't be anything too aggressive. | 不会太冲动的 |
| 68 | I don't think | 我不觉得 |
| 69 | they're quite reluctant to pull out these leverage-like critical minerals or things | 他们很不愿意拔出 这些杠杆般的关键矿物或东西 |
| 70 | that really doesn't really help China either, if you resort to that kind of tactic. | 如果你采用这种战术,那也帮不了中国 |
| 71 | Because | 因为 |
| 72 | I think in the policymakers' minds, the US-China relationship, it's already gone to a point where | 我认为在决策者的脑海里, 美中关系, 它已经到了一个点 |
| 73 | it's not going to improve significantly. | 它不会显著改善。 |
| 74 | China's clearly designing its own path with the understanding | 中国明目张胆地设计自己的道路 |
| 75 | that it's going to be difficult with the US. | 很难对付美国 |
| 76 | So it's not going to be a shock anymore. | 故不复惊动. |
| 77 | It's | 这是 |
| 78 | not going to be a shock. | 不会是惊吓。 |
| 79 | First of all, if we look at some of the new sectors, the new productive | 首先,如果我们看看一些新的部门,新的生产 |
| 80 | forces, I think that last time I checked, it was only 5% of total exports, the rest being other | 我认为上次我检查的时候 只占出口总额的5% 其余的则是其他 |
| 81 | kinds of manufacturing. | 那种制造业。 |
| 82 | The majority of these exports of these new productive forces, renewables, | 这些新的生产力量的大多数出口都是可再生能源, |
| 83 | EVs, and so forth, is with Europe. | EVs等与欧洲相伴. |
| 84 | So Europe is really the major trading partner. | 因此,欧洲是真正的主要贸易伙伴。 |
| 85 | And also looking | 还有看 |
| 86 | back, after the trade wars, there has been a lot of rerouting going on. | 贸易战争之后 路线不断改变 |
| 87 | So Chinese exports are still | 所以中国的出口还在 |
| 88 | increasing. | 不断增加。 |
| 89 | They're going to different places. | 他们要去不同的地方。 |
| 90 | Obviously, much of it still ends up in the US, | 显然,它的大部分仍然 在美国结束, |
| 91 | because it goes through Mexico and Vietnam. | 因为它通过墨西哥和越南。 |
| 92 | If you look at a figure of the correlation between | 如果你看一个数字 关联性 |
| 93 | where China exports more to, it's a very, very high correlation with where US imports from. | 在中国出口较多的地方, 它与美国的进口高度相关。 |
| 94 | So | 这么说 |
| 95 | the rerouting is definitely going on. | 改变路线肯定在继续 |
| 96 | So there's a reorganization of globalization. | 所以全球化的重组. |
| 97 | So I guess your | 所以我猜你的吗? |
| 98 | answer to this, to much of the people's surprise, China didn't really, really care that much. | 回答这一点,对于人们的很多惊喜,中国并没有真正,真的那么关心. |
| 99 | Not | 没有 |
| 100 | like the first time around, whether it was Harris or Trump. | 就像第一次,无论是哈里斯还是特朗普。 |
| 101 | But I think that if I were to say one | 但我认为如果我说一个 |
| 102 | difference is that they still believe that there's room for negotiation with Trump. | 不同的是,他们仍然相信与特朗普的谈判还有余地. |
| 103 | They still see | 他们还看到 |
| 104 | him as a businessman. | 他是一个商人。 |
| 105 | Just like with Europe, on the EVs and the tariffs, they feel there's | 就像欧洲,在EV和关税, 他们觉得有 |
| 106 | still room for maneuver, whereas it wouldn't have been the case with the Democrats. | 仍然有策略的余地, 而民主党不会是这样。 |
| 107 | But my other | 但另一个 |
| 108 | concern, which is not necessarily the policymaker's concern at this point, is that if there were to be | 目前并不一定是决策者关心的问题,那就是如果有的话。 |
| 109 | a very truculent stance towards China, very aggressive, just like we saw at the height of | 对中国的态度很不灵活,非常有侵略性,就像我们在最高处看到的 |
| 110 | COVID and the China virus, et cetera, then that's going to push the Chinese policymakers into a | COVID和中国病毒等等, 这会把中国决策者推向 |
| 111 | more aggressive foreign policy response, even though not economically speaking, because they | 更积极的外交政策反应,尽管不是经济反应,因为它们 |
| 112 | still have a Chinese populace to respond to. | 仍有中国民众需要响应。 |
| 113 | And that cornering them into a more aggressive | 把他们逼到更凶猛的地步 |
| 114 | position is obviously quite dangerous, in my view. | 我认为,立场显然相当危险。 |
| 115 | If we look now from the China perspective, | 如果我们从中国的角度来看 |
| 116 | from the inside. | 从内. |
| 117 | So there's been this new plan indication, 24th of September, 26th of September, | 所以有了这个新计划,9月24日,9月26日, |
| 118 | or more recently. | 或更近期。 |
| 119 | What are the problems that are trying to be addressed with this new kind of plan? | 用这种新计划试图解决的问题是什么? |
| 120 | And what would be the read that we should be looking at? | 我们该看什么? |
| 121 | Just explaining, there's been a lot | 解释一下,有很多 |
| 122 | of comments from the foreign press that the amount is small. | 外国媒体评论说数额很小。 |
| 123 | It's not like the strong consumption | 这不像是强消费 |
| 124 | stimulus that everyone expected. | 大家期待的刺激 |
| 125 | How do you see that? | 你怎么看出来的? |
| 126 | And what can we derive from this type of | 我们能从这种 |
| 127 | plan that is currently being in place? | - 现行计划? |
| 128 | So backtrack a little bit. | 所以回溯一点。 |
| 129 | I think for the last two to three | 我觉得最后两到三 |
| 130 | years, two years, especially as the economy got significantly more problematic, there was still | 两年,特别是因为经济问题明显增加 |
| 131 | a debate going on among the leadership. | 领导层正在进行辩论。 |
| 132 | First of all, is this a structural problem or is it a | 首先,这是一个结构性问题,还是 |
| 133 | me? | 我吗? |
| 134 | And other economists, many other economists believe it's a short-term macro problem, a cyclical | 而其他经济学家,许多其他经济学家认为这是一个短期的宏观问题,是一个周期性的问题. |
| 135 | problem. | 问题。 |
| 136 | Again, if you look at the history of US economy, the cycles, at least 12 recessions in the | 再说一遍,如果你看看美国经济的历史, 周期,至少12个衰退 |
| 137 | last few decades. | 过去几十年 |
| 138 | China is experiencing officially its first one. | 中国正正式经历第一次. |
| 139 | And if you look at the lack of | 如果你看 缺乏 |
| 140 | aggregate demand, disinflation, all of that, it suggests there's a strong confidence issue, | 总体需求,去除通货膨胀, 所有这一切, 它表明有一个强烈的信心问题, |
| 141 | so cyclical. | 如此的周期性。 |
| 142 | But there was a big debate as to whether that was that or it was a structural | 但对于是那样还是结构上的 |
| 143 | problem, and that the short-term macro solutions were going to be effective. | 短期宏观解决办法将会有效。 |
| 144 | And whether the | 还有,是否 |
| 145 | marginal impact of the monetary policy or the spillovers were going to be as strong as it was | 货币政策或外溢效应的微弱影响将一如既往地强劲 |
| 146 | after 2009. | 于2009年之后。 |
| 147 | So there was still a big debate. | 因此,仍然有一场大辩论。 |
| 148 | There was also an inflammation problem. | 还有一个炎症问题。 |
| 149 | Exactly what is | 没错 |
| 150 | the situation on the ground? | 地面局势? |
| 151 | I know it's hard to believe, but the transmission of information has | 我知道这很难相信, 但信息传递有 |
| 152 | been not the most smooth. | 并不是最顺畅的。 |
| 153 | And I think that this time around, this year, when fiscal revenues start | 我想这次,今年,当财政收入开始 |
| 154 | to look pretty much under pressure, you can't hide that behind GDP numbers. | 在压力下看, 你不能隐藏在GDP数字后面。 |
| 155 | That's when they | 那时他们 |
| 156 | start to worry. | 开始担心。 |
| 157 | Now, it actually came much later than we had hoped for, but sooner than I expected, | 现在,它实际上比我们所期望的要晚得多, 但比我所期望的要快得多, |
| 158 | in the sense I was waiting for even greater unemployment or more social reactions to push | 从这个意义上讲,我正在等待更大的失业 或更多的社会反应来推动 |
| 159 | them. | 他们。 |
| 160 | But it came a little earlier. | 但它来得有点早。 |
| 161 | I think the one thing that was, well, the most important thing | 我认为一件事,是,嗯,最重要的事情 |
| 162 | is that it is a signal. | 这是信号。 |
| 163 | It's a signal that economics is back, the economic goals are put | 这是一个信号,经济是回归的, 经济目标是设置的 |
| 164 | front and center, and the government is behind it, because that was a little bit wobbly. | 前面和中央,政府是幕后黑手, 因为那是有点摇摆。 |
| 165 | Now, | 现在, |
| 166 | again, just give me a little bit, just one second for the backdrop. | 再说一遍,给我一点时间,就一会儿 |
| 167 | I think for the last few years, | 我想过去几年 |
| 168 | there was definitely a little bit of a detraction, you could say, or reorientation towards more | 你可以说,肯定有一点 贬低,或者调整方向 |
| 169 | social issues. | 社会问题。 |
| 170 | Social issues like consumer protection, inequality issues, and so forth. | 消费者保护、不平等问题等社会问题。 |
| 171 | Everyone is very familiar with that. | 每个人都很熟悉这一点。 |
| 172 | And to the point, because then I think the nation was feeling | 说到重点,因为那时我觉得全国感觉 |
| 173 | pretty confident about its standing in the world as technology and so on. | 相信它作为科技在世界的地位 |
| 174 | And we know what happens | 我们知道会发生什么 |
| 175 | when you choose social issues over economics. | 当你选择社会问题 而不是经济学。 |
| 176 | There's plenty of case studies in the world to | 世界上有很多案例研究 |
| 177 | choose from, Latin America, for instance. | 以拉丁美洲为例。 |
| 178 | And then now, I think after many years of really high youth | 现在,我想 经过多年 真正的高青年 |
| 179 | unemployment, real issues, fiscal resources, local government debt problems, it's the economy | 失业 实际问题 财政资源 地方政府债务问题 经济 |
| 180 | stupid. | 蠢货 |
| 181 | That kind of phrase is ringing true. | 那种语句很真实 |
| 182 | So I think, first of all, it's important to say that | 所以,我想,首先, 重要的是说 |
| 183 | that's a strong signal, and they've sent a strong signal. | 这信号很强 他们发出强烈信号 |
| 184 | And I think the stimulus would come over | 我觉得刺激会过去 |
| 185 | time. | 时间。 |
| 186 | Now, of course, we're saying, okay, when are we going to see it in the numbers? | 现在,当然,我们是在说,好吧,我们什么时候才能看到数字? |
| 187 | That could take | 这可能需要 |
| 188 | some time. | 有时间。 |
| 189 | There could be a lag. | 可能有一个滞后。 |
| 190 | Okay, now let's shift to technology, young consumer behavior. | 好了,现在让我们转向科技, 年轻的消费者行为。 |
| 191 | I think everybody is focused on that. | 我想每个人都在关注这个问题。 |
| 192 | Everybody is focused on real estate sector recovery, | 每个人都专注于房地产部门的复苏, |
| 193 | being a catalyzer for the rest. | 做催化剂 |
| 194 | Talk to us about this. | 跟我们谈谈这个 |
| 195 | What's your take on that? | 你对此有什么看法? |
| 196 | How do we see it | 我们如何看待 |
| 197 | evolving? | 进化? |
| 198 | Chinese entrepreneurs are amazing. | 中国企业家惊人. |
| 199 | They've been put sometimes a bit of a leash | 他们有时被绑起来 |
| 200 | in the past three, four years. | 在过去的三年,四年。 |
| 201 | Is this changing? | 这是在改变吗? |
| 202 | And how? | 怎么样? |
| 203 | So before we segue into this, I think it's important to draw a conclusion or an observation | 因此,在我们讨论这个问题之前,我认为重要的是要得出结论或观察 |
| 204 | here, which is China does long term very well. | 在这里,中国的长远发展非常良好。 |
| 205 | And I hope we'll spend more time talking about | 我希望我们能花更多的时间谈论 |
| 206 | technology, because that's really the most fascinating phenomenon that we're seeing, | 技术,因为那是我们所看到的 最令人着迷的现象, |
| 207 | China being the first and only developing country with cutting edge technology. | 中国是拥有尖端技术的第一个和唯一的发展中国家。 |
| 208 | And part of the | 和一部分 |
| 209 | reason is China's leaders, planners, does long term very well. | 原因是中国的领导人,规划者,长期做得很好. |
| 210 | And it's still doing very, very | 而且它还在做非常,非常 |
| 211 | well on the long term planning. | 好在长期规划。 |
| 212 | The dominating strategic emerging sector is the major goal. | 占主导地位的战略新兴部门是主要目标。 |
| 213 | Just like they're reaping Olympic gold medal whole of a nation program, they use the same spirit, | 就像他们收获奥运会金牌一样 他们用的是同样的精神 |
| 214 | same kind of resources system to go after that. | 同样的资源系统 之后去。 |
| 215 | But I hope we'll discuss that as well. | 但我希望我们也讨论一下 |
| 216 | But the short term, do they believe in the Keynesian stimulus? | 但短期内,他们相信凯恩斯主义的刺激吗? |
| 217 | Do they believe? | 他们相信吗? |
| 218 | Again, there was always a little bit of a debate. | 再说一遍,总是有一点点的辩论。 |
| 219 | If we look around the world, | 如果我们环顾世界 |
| 220 | US spent $5 trillion during the pandemic, and it had an official recession of two months. | 美国在这场大流行期间花费了5万亿美元,官方也出现了两个月的衰退. |
| 221 | It was effective, but of course there were consequences. | 它很有效,但当然有后果。 |
| 222 | But that kind of big Keynesian | 但那种大凯恩斯主义者 |
| 223 | stimulus is actually not pursued by many countries outside of the western few UK, US. | 西方少数英国和美国以外的许多国家实际上没有采取刺激措施。 |
| 224 | Developing countries are hesitant. | 发展中国家犹豫不决。 |
| 225 | And Chinese government thinks, okay, well, even if, | 中国政府认为,即使, |
| 226 | are they going to spend the money by the Chinese consumers? | 他们要花钱给中国消费者吗? |
| 227 | It's not like the American consumers | 这不像美国消费者 |
| 228 | get the check, you spend it. | 拿到支票,你花掉它。 |
| 229 | The Chinese won't do that. | 中国人不会那么做的 |
| 230 | So there was a debate about, so the short | 因此,有一个辩论,所以短 |
| 231 | term hesitance, right? | 犹豫不决,对吧? |
| 232 | They don't do short term macro management that well. | 它们不会做那么好的短期宏观管理。 |
| 233 | They don't have that | 他们没有 |
| 234 | experience. | 经验 |
| 235 | The consumers are responding very differently. | 消费者的反应非常不同。 |
| 236 | And so they do the long term very | 因此,他们做长期非常 |
| 237 | well. | 不错 |
| 238 | But I think that in order to get to the long term, you need to do the short term, right? | 但我认为,为了实现长远, 你需要做短期,对不对? |
| 239 | So the fact that they have not put in the right dosage for the short term solutions is going to | 所以,他们没有为短期解决方案提供正确的剂量 |
| 240 | hinder their long term potential. | 阻碍其长期潜力。 |
| 241 | But again, pausing that long term question about technology, | 但是,再次, 缺少关于技术的长期问题, |
| 242 | I think that is the main issue. | 我认为这是主要问题。 |
| 243 | Now, coming back to the, let me talk about the consumers first, | 现在,回到现在, 让我先谈谈消费者, |
| 244 | because we're seeing very, very rapid change, okay? | 因为我们看到非常,非常迅速的变化,好吗? |
| 245 | I spent a lot of time in China recently, | 我最近在中国待了很多年 |
| 246 | talked to a lot of Chinese people from the younger generation. | 与许多年轻一代的中国人交谈. |
| 247 | It's actually really | 其实是真的 |
| 248 | interesting what's going on. | 有趣的是发生了什么。 |
| 249 | China moves so fast, you got to keep up, right? | 中国动作这么快,你得跟上,对不对? |
| 250 | And they respond to | 他们回应 |
| 251 | real time circumstances and adapt to it very quickly. | 并且非常迅速地适应它。 |
| 252 | And they are really, really highly | 他们真的,真的很高 |
| 253 | resilient. | 坚韧. |
| 254 | The first thing we have to understand is that there's a huge generational change. | 我们首先要明白的是,代代相传发生了巨大的变化. |
| 255 | From my parents' generation, went through the culture evolution, you know, the huge vicissitudes, | 从我父母的一代,经历了文化进化, 你知道,巨大的变化, |
| 256 | right? | 对吧? |
| 257 | Psychological, physical hardship to the one top policy, to the gen Z's and so forth. | 心理上,身体上的困难 到一个顶级政策, 基因Z's等等。 |
| 258 | Now, the newer generation, even if you look at the statistics, and we all know this anecdotally, | 现在,新一代, 即使你看看统计数据, 我们都知道这个传闻, |
| 259 | love to spend, love to borrow, love to live a good life, right? | 爱花,爱借,爱过好生活,对不对? |
| 260 | They are very different from | 他们与我不同 |
| 261 | the Foscon workers that was, you know, opting for three shifts a night to earn that extra few | 福斯康工人,你知道,选择每晚三班 赚取额外少 |
| 262 | dollars. | 钱 |
| 263 | They don't do that anymore, right? | 他们不再这样做了,对吧? |
| 264 | So that whole global shock of cheap, you know, | 所以,整个全球冲击 便宜,你知道, |
| 265 | massive production, Chinese goods flooding the global market, with that generation, | 大量生产,中国商品 淹没全球市场,与那一代, |
| 266 | they're going to pass it on to other countries. | 他们打算把它传给其他国家。 |
| 267 | So it's about life, life work balance. | 所以这是关于生活,生活的工作平衡。 |
| 268 | And even, | 即便这样 |
| 269 | and turning, so borrowing, 85% of consumer borrowing is taken, taken by people under 35. | 85%的消费借款 被35岁以下的人拿走 |
| 270 | And if you look at the generational differences, people post 80s spend, post 80s and 90s spend | 如果你看一代人的不同, 人们80岁,80岁和90岁 |
| 271 | twice as much on clothing as those born in the 1970s, despite earning much less, this is talking | 衣着是1970年代的两倍,尽管收入少得多,但这是在说 |
| 272 | about an absolute per capita amount, and much more on food and entertainment. | 大约是人均绝对数量, 更多关于食物和娱乐。 |
| 273 | So clearly, | 很明显 |
| 274 | it's a very different thing. | 这是一个非常不同的事情。 |
| 275 | Okay, so now we come to the downturn, the recent economic downturn, | 好吧,所以现在我们来到 衰退,最近的经济衰退, |
| 276 | obviously, a lot of them lost jobs or have pay cuts, they adapted very quickly. | 很明显,他们中很多人失业或减薪, 他们适应得很快。 |
| 277 | What do they do? | 他们做什么的? |
| 278 | They find all kinds of new ways of life being really and really kind of, you know, on the on | 他们发现各种新的生活方式 是真实的,真的,你知道的,在上 |
| 279 | the whole, if you look at Hong Shu, or they're all now competing on who can live a better life | 整个人,如果你看洪舒, 或者他们现在都在竞争 谁可以过更好的生活 |
| 280 | on a very tiny budget. | 在一个很小的预算。 |
| 281 | Okay, there's an anecdote where there is the city close to basically North | 有个传闻说 这座城市离北区很近 |
| 282 | Korea and North China is becoming work. | 韩国和华北地区正在成为工作. |
| 283 | Is that what you're telling us? | 这就是你告诉我们的吗? |
| 284 | Well, and a bunch of | 嗯,还有一堆 |
| 285 | things, but not in the same way, not not in the same way. | 事情,但不同的方式, 不同的方式。 |
| 286 | But there's a there's a city close to | 但有一个城市接近 |
| 287 | North Korea that became hugely popular because there's very cheap, really delicious barbecue. | 朝鲜因为有非常便宜,非常美味的烧烤而变得非常流行. |
| 288 | And people made a trip to plan around these kind of, you know, camping and, and they they they | 人们去计划 围绕这种,你知道,露营和, 他们 |
| 289 | delight themselves in these kind of new ways of life. | 喜欢这种新的生活方式 |
| 290 | You know, am as bag in a metro, that kind | 你知道,像包 在地铁,这种 |
| 291 | of thing. | 东西。 |
| 292 | So anyway, I think that there will be lots of new innovations around the new generation, | 所以,无论如何,我认为 有很多新的创新 围绕新一代, |
| 293 | how they want to live their lifestyle. | 他们想要过自己的生活 |
| 294 | And obviously that talking about entrepreneurs, | 很明显,谈论企业家, |
| 295 | they are the most creative. | 他们是最有创意的。 |
| 296 | So in that sense, what I'm trying to say convey is that it's a | 所以,从这个意义上讲,我想说的是,这是一个 |
| 297 | rapidly adapting society to the circumstances, the new generation are big consumers, borrowers, | 快速适应社会 环境, 新一代是大消费者,借款人, |
| 298 | and so forth. | 诸如来. |
| 299 | And they have changed their way of living. | 他们改变了生活方式。 |
| 300 | Now, entrepreneurialism is still very | 现在,企业主义仍然是非常 |
| 301 | strong. | 强壮。 |
| 302 | I mean, I don't see any other country that can match in terms of the the spirit of hard | 我的意思是,我没有看到任何其他 国家可以匹配 在精神硬 |
| 303 | working, the spirit of, you know, still being very, very motivated, and also the opportunity, | 工作,精神,你知道, 仍然非常,非常积极, 和机会, |
| 304 | right? | 对吧? |
| 305 | You have great entrepreneurs, even in your country, sorry to say even your country, | 你有伟大的企业家,即使在你的国家, 对不起,甚至你的国家, |
| 306 | but where's the opportunity, right? | 但机会在哪里,对不对? |
| 307 | The opportunity here in China, the scale, the market, the size, | 在中国的机会,规模,市场,规模, |
| 308 | the talent, it's all there. | 才华横溢 |
| 309 | So they still have these dreams. | 所以他们仍然有这些梦想。 |
| 310 | Meanwhile, having a much more | 同时,拥有更多 |
| 311 | kind of lifestyle. | 一种生活方式。 |
| 312 | So again, I think finance is a challenge, right? | 因此,我再次认为 金融是一个挑战,对不对? |
| 313 | I think this is actually | 我觉得这是真的 |
| 314 | one of the biggest challenges today. | 今天最大的挑战之一 |
| 315 | You have an equally brilliant technology, | 你有同样绝妙的技术 |
| 316 | you know, in China, it's harder to be funded, you take it outside, it's much easier to be funded. | 你知道,在中国, 很难得到资助, 你把它外面, |
| 317 | So the financial system, because the Chinese government is coming in, and again, you know, | 所以,金融系统, 因为中国政府正在进来, 再一次,你知道, |
| 318 | regulating, cleaning it, if you will, that has, I think, in the short term, really restricted | 管理,清理,如果你愿意, 我认为,从短期来看, 这确实受到限制 |
| 319 | the possibilities of these companies. | 这些公司的可能性。 |
| 320 | Because ultimately, even if you look at the data research, | 因为最终,即使你看看数据研究, |
| 321 | academic research, finance is crucial for innovation. | 学术研究、金融对创新至关重要。 |
| 322 | This is why US is one of the most | 这就是为什么美国是最伟大的 |
| 323 | innovative marketplaces. | 创新市场。 |
| 324 | But what's happening to the financial system, the drying up of credit | 但金融系统发生了什么 信用的枯竭 |
| 325 | and the possibilities, I think is a factor that holds them back. | 和可能性,我认为是一个因素 阻止他们。 |
| 326 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 327 | This is a good transition before we go to China outside also, and especially in Asia. | 我们到外面的中国,特别是亚洲之前,这是一个良好的转变。 |
| 328 | But, | 不过 |
| 329 | in a way now, it's more and more difficult to invest in USD. | 从某种意义上说,现在投资美元越来越困难。 |
| 330 | And what we hear is that it's | 我们听到的是,这是 |
| 331 | necessary, right? | 有必要,对不对? |
| 332 | So will we ever be able to benefit from the great investment opportunity | 我们能从伟大的投资机会中获益吗? |
| 333 | on paper that we hear and that we see now from a USB perspective? | 我们所听到的和我们现在从USB角度看到的纸上? |
| 334 | And if so, what will it require | 如果是这样,它需要什么 |
| 335 | for foreign investors to be able to invest again, knowing that right now you have no | 外国投资者能够再次投资,知道你现在没有 |
| 336 | possible exits of unlimited? | 可能的无限出口? |
| 337 | Well, if it's not clear to everyone in this room, I would hope to | 好吧,如果这房间里的每个人都不清楚, 我希望 |
| 338 | make it clear that obviously China is very much open for business globally, right? | 明确指出,很明显,中国在全球对商业非常开放,对吧? |
| 339 | Whilst we see | 当我们看到 |
| 340 | a lot of protectionism going on, especially in the Western part of the world, that is not China's | 许多保护主义的进行,特别是在世界西部地区,这不是中国的。 |
| 341 | stance at all, despite the kind of misconstrued perspective you might be seeing in the West. | 尽管你对西方的看法有误解 |
| 342 | China is open for business. | 中国开业. |
| 343 | Now, that is not in contradiction to China wants to be self-reliant. | 现在,这与中国希望自力更生并不矛盾. |
| 344 | I mean, if you think about national security, if you think about critical technology, everybody | 我的意思是,如果你想到国家安全, 如果你想到关键技术,每个人 |
| 345 | needs to be self-reliant. | 需要自力更生。 |
| 346 | That's what decoupling, de-risking is about. | 脱钩,脱险就是这个意思. |
| 347 | But it doesn't mean that | 但这并不意味着 |
| 348 | the stance is more protectionism. | 立场是更多的保护主义。 |
| 349 | Also very important to note that as China becomes bigger | 同样重要的是,随着中国的崛起 |
| 350 | and richer, it is going to look a lot more like the US, statistically speaking. | 从统计学角度讲,它看起来更像美国。 |
| 351 | US trades a lot | 美国经常交易 |
| 352 | less than European countries, smaller countries. | 少于欧洲国家,较小的国家. |
| 353 | US produces much more of its intermediate products | 美国生产更多的中间产品 |
| 354 | than it imports. | 而不是进口。 |
| 355 | And China's looking like that. | 而中华亦复如是. |
| 356 | And if you look at the statistics, you see a | 如果你看统计,你会看到一个 |
| 357 | declining share of export as a share of production, that's not a sign of protectionism. | 出口占生产比重下降,这并非保护主义的表现. |
| 358 | It's a sign | 是个征兆 |
| 359 | of China becoming a bigger economy, where the majority of it's domestically absorbed. | 使中国成为一个更大的经济体, 大部分是国内吸收的。 |
| 360 | So that's | 这么说吧 |
| 361 | one thing to keep in mind. | 记住一件事 |
| 362 | So that said, the globalization aspect is very clear. | 因此,全球化的方面非常清楚。 |
| 363 | China is | 中国是 |
| 364 | quite desperate to get global capital. | 相当渴望获得全球资本。 |
| 365 | And I think that there will be a slew of policies | 我认为将会有一系列政策 |
| 366 | that will be more favorable to, first of all, the protection and also the ability to take money in | 首先,这更有利于保护,也有利于获取资金的能力。 |
| 367 | and out. | 出来 |
| 368 | Actually, I was talking to some Chinese entrepreneurs yesterday, and they were saying | 其实,我昨天跟一些中国企业家谈过, 他们说 |
| 369 | local governments, first and foremost, protect foreign companies. | 地方政府首先保护外国公司。 |
| 370 | They don't want to offend | 他们不想冒犯我 |
| 371 | foreign companies, foreign capital. | 外国公司,外国资本. |
| 372 | Because that makes them look bad. | 因为这让他们看起来很糟糕。 |
| 373 | Their bosses are angry | 他们的老板很生气 |
| 374 | so that actually is the most protected part. | 因此,这实际上是最受保护的部分。 |
| 375 | Unlike many of us here, there's many policies that | 和我们这里的很多人不同 有许多政策 |
| 376 | says that the discrimination implicit or explicit has to stop, and a lot more friendly policies. | 指出隐含或明确的歧视必须停止,许多更友好的政策。 |
| 377 | So that's China's perspective. | 这就是中国的观点。 |
| 378 | One has to make clear. | 一者须明. |
| 379 | Now what the US intends to do is something | 现在美国打算做的是 |
| 380 | else. | 别的 |
| 381 | And I cannot be really sure of what the US intention is. | 我无法确定美国的意图是什么。 |
| 382 | I still believe that because | 我仍然相信,因为 |
| 383 | still the major presence of some major companies from American companies, especially the consumer | 美国公司的一些大公司,特别是美国消费者的主要存在 |
| 384 | markets, barring the high tech, the critical technologies, you just cannot ignore China. | 市场,除了高科技,关键技术, 你不能忽视中国。 |
| 385 | Second largest economy still offers many diversification opportunities to global assets | 第二大经济体仍然为全球资产提供了许多多样化机会。 |
| 386 | and all that. | 这一切。 |
| 387 | It is a big opportunity even for the US. | 这对美国来说也是个大机会。 |
| 388 | So I don't see it going into direction | 所以,我不认为它走向方向 |
| 389 | where there's a total cutoff. | 在那里有一个总的截断。 |
| 390 | By the way, it's also important to mention that in China you are | 顺便说一句,你在中国也是 |
| 391 | not allowed to talk about decoupling. | 不允许谈论脱钩。 |
| 392 | This word does not exist in Chinese. | 这个词在汉语中并不存在. |
| 393 | If you mention on | 如果你提到 |
| 394 | social media, you might be censored and all that. | 社交媒体,你可能会被审查 这一切。 |
| 395 | So it's important to make clear China's stance, | 因此,必须明确中国的立场, |
| 396 | which is that they're going to manage the relationship and not have a total cutoff. | 也就是他们要管理关系 而不是完全断绝关系 |
| 397 | Lastly, the point is it's opportunity. | 最后,重点是机会。 |
| 398 | Now the US economy is doing well. | 现在美国经济进展顺利. |
| 399 | Yes, but it's not always | 是的,但并不总是 |
| 400 | going to stay that way if you look at all those cycles. | 如果你看这些循环,会一直这样 |
| 401 | If there's another financial crisis comes | 如果再发生金融危机 |
| 402 | around, there's no way these two central banks are not going to work together. | 这两家中央银行不会合作 |
| 403 | Even in 2009, | 甚至在2009年, |
| 404 | they brought in China to do so much to provide emergency liquidity, to buy up Greek debt. | 他们来中国是为了提供紧急流动性 买下希腊债务 |
| 405 | What | 什麽? |
| 406 | did China do? | 中国有吗? |
| 407 | China cooperated for the safety of the global financial system. | 中国合作保障全球金融体系安全. |
| 408 | So there will be | 所以会有的 |
| 409 | and there will be absolute total need for cooperation. | 而且绝对需要合作。 |
| 410 | And I think when that time comes | 我想当那个时候到了 |
| 411 | around, global capital, not everything, but all of them will just taste returns, growth, | 环绕着,全球资本,不是一切, 但他们都只是品尝回报,增长, |
| 412 | balance with diversification. | 与多样化保持平衡。 |
| 413 | You cannot ignore the second largest economy. | 你不能无视第二大经济体。 |
| 414 | You cannot ignore Asia. | 你不能忽视亚洲。 |
| 415 | What something like 50% of middle class people are going to be in Asia. | 50%的中产阶级将在亚洲。 |
| 416 | If you look at the | 如果你看着 |
| 417 | demographics, 50% of the young people are going to be Asia. | 人口统计,50%的年轻人将是亚洲人。 |
| 418 | Two thirds of I think the global growth | 我认为全球增长的三分之二 |
| 419 | in Asia, all of these things. | 在亚洲,所有这些东西。 |
| 420 | I mean, it's just, I think that's, you know, this is not a geopolitical | 我的意思是,这只是,我认为, 你知道,这不是地缘政治 |
| 421 | problem, right? | 问题,对不对? |
| 422 | It's, it's, you have to balance both. | 这是,这是, 你必须平衡两者。 |
| 423 | Very clear. | 非常明确。 |
| 424 | Let's shift towards China versus | 让我们转向中国对战 |
| 425 | rest of Asia. | 亚洲其他地区。 |
| 426 | Past three years have been tough relationship between the US and India. | 过去三年来,美国和印度之间的关系很艰难。 |
| 427 | So these | 所以这些 |
| 428 | two giants at the moment, there is a bit of a euphoria in India, almost like a revenge spirit | 现在有两个巨头,印度有点兴奋 几乎像复仇精神 |
| 429 | over China. | 在中国上空。 |
| 430 | How do you see that evolving? | 你怎么看这种变化? |
| 431 | Second, in the smallest or smaller economies, | 第二,在最小或较小的经济体中, |
| 432 | such as Vietnam that you mentioned earlier, how are they going to evolve in that? | 比如你刚才提到的越南, 他们是如何进化的呢? |
| 433 | Will they have | 他们会有 |
| 434 | to take a stance on US or China? | 对美国或中国采取立场? |
| 435 | Or can they still play and who are going to be the winners out of | 或者他们还能玩 谁是赢家 |
| 436 | that? | 那个? |
| 437 | So first of all, setting the broader stage, I think China's geopolitical strategy is | 因此,首先,设置更广泛的舞台,我认为中国的地缘政治策略是: |
| 438 | diversification of everything. | 所有事物的多样化。 |
| 439 | Diversification of friends, partners, diversification of currencies, | 朋友、伙伴和货币的多样化 |
| 440 | okay? | 好吗? |
| 441 | So not just holding US dollars, diversification of conduits, financial conduits. | 所以不只是持有美元, 多样化的管道,金融管道。 |
| 442 | So whether it's Enbridge, BRICS, SIPs, or whatever it is, it's all about diversification, signing up | 所以无论是恩布里奇,金砖国家,SIP,还是无论它是什么, 都是为了多样化,报名 |
| 443 | as many trade agreements as possible, much more regional cooperation and so forth. | 尽可能多的贸易协定,更多的区域合作等等。 |
| 444 | I think that | 我觉得 |
| 445 | is China's geopolitical strategy. | 是中国的地缘政治战略。 |
| 446 | So that would also involve many other countries that you mentioned. | 因此,这也涉及你提到的许多其他国家。 |
| 447 | China-India relationship is, you know, it's always on a very, very thin line. | 中印关系,你知道, 总是在一个非常,非常薄的线上。 |
| 448 | I think I heard | 我好像听说了 |
| 449 | for India, the difference is border before broader. | 对印度来说,区别在于边界比范围更广。 |
| 450 | Broader mean broader cooperation, | 更广泛的合作意味着更广泛的合作, |
| 451 | economic and all of that. | 经济和所有这一切。 |
| 452 | China is broader before border, okay? | 中国比边境要宽,好吗? |
| 453 | So let's talk about | 所以,让我们谈谈 |
| 454 | multilateralism, talk about trade partnerships, investments before border. | 多边主义,谈论贸易伙伴关系,投资先于边境。 |
| 455 | So there's a little bit | 所以有一点 |
| 456 | of a difference there. | 不同之处 |
| 457 | Obviously now with the US, the triangular relationship, you know, US is going | 显然,现在与美国,三角关系, 你知道,美国要去 |
| 458 | to use India as kind of a balancing act with China. | 利用印度作为与中国的平衡 |
| 459 | Obviously China's view is the same with Russia, | 很明显,中国的观点与俄罗斯相同, |
| 460 | right? | 对吧? |
| 461 | It's all just, you know, it's all multipolar, right? | 这一切都只是,你知道, 这是所有的多极,对不对? |
| 462 | It's also going to be a shifting. | 亦是转法轮. |
| 463 | So it's | 所以这是 |
| 464 | hard to say. | 很难说 |
| 465 | I think that people don't expect there to be a dramatic improvement, but it would | 我认为人们并不期望有戏剧性的改善,但会 |
| 466 | be kind of, you know, quite volatile and adapting to the circumstances. | 有点,你知道,相当不稳定 和适应环境。 |
| 467 | But I think that, yeah, | 但我认为,是的, |
| 468 | for China in Asia, it's a very, very, and we see a lot more regionalization going on around the | 对于亚洲的中国来说, 这是一个非常,非常, 而且我们看到更多的区域化 围绕亚洲。 |
| 469 | world because of the protectionist trends that are taking place. | 世界正因为正在发生的保护主义趋势。 |
| 470 | Perfect. | 不错 |
| 471 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 472 | Let me open the session to the audience. | 请允许我向观众开放会议。 |
| 473 | Please, if you have any question. | 如果你有任何问题,请。 |
| 474 | Before we start, can I just mention something I think that is fundamentally important, right? | 在我们开始之前,我可以只提到一些我认为非常重要的事情吗? |
| 475 | First is China's strength and potential. | 首先是中国的实力和潜力. |
| 476 | We talked a lot about the weaknesses, but I'll also | 我们谈了很多关于弱点的问题 但我也会 |
| 477 | summarize that. | 总结一下 |
| 478 | If you look at, and this is some work that I'm currently doing, I mentioned | 如果你看,这是我正在做的一些工作,我提到 |
| 479 | dominating emerging strategic sectors as a whole of a nation goal, like reaping a gold Olympics. | 支配新兴的战略部门,作为国家目标的整体,如收获金牌奥运会. |
| 480 | If you look at whether it's EVs or solar panels or the renewables or any of these emerging sectors, | 如果你看看是EV还是太阳能电池板 可再生能源还是这些新兴部门 |
| 481 | China has just gone straight to the top, okay? | 中国刚刚上台,好吗? |
| 482 | In a very short spate of time. | 在很短的时间内 |
| 483 | It is absolutely | 这是绝对的 |
| 484 | remarkable and quite striking what it's achieved. | 令人瞩目的成就 |
| 485 | Now with cost, but still the benefits I think | 现在,成本,但仍然是好处 我想 |
| 486 | outweigh the cost. | 超过成本。 |
| 487 | What is its approach? | 它的方法是什么? |
| 488 | This is something I emphasize in my book. | 这是我书中强调的。 |
| 489 | Don't think | 别想 |
| 490 | about centralization. | 关于中央集权。 |
| 491 | That's political centralization, but economic decentralization | 这是政治集中,但经济权力下放 |
| 492 | at the mayoral or provincial governor level, at the local level. | 在市长或省省长一级,在地方一级。 |
| 493 | Some of the latest studies, | 一些最新的研究, |
| 494 | if I draw a map for you, show you a map, in 2005, you look at solar panels, whether it's | 如果我为你画一张地图,给你看一张地图, 2005年,你看太阳板,不管它是 |
| 495 | production or innovation, desert. | 生产或创新,沙漠。 |
| 496 | Then what happened? | 然后发生了什么? |
| 497 | These policies to boost the solar panel | 这些政策旨在提升太阳能电池板 |
| 498 | started to be rolled out one city after another, you know, 10 and then 15 and then 30. | 开始推出一个又一个城市, 你知道,10,然后15,然后30。 |
| 499 | 10 years later, you look at this map again, it has blossomed into, and this is not just Beijing, | 10年后,你再看这张地图, 它已经开花, 这里不仅仅是北京, |
| 500 | Shanghai and Shenzhen, it's all over China. | 上海和深圳,全中国都有. |
| 501 | Some cities achieving 2,500 new patents in solar alone, | 一些城市仅太阳能就获得了2500项新专利, |
| 502 | okay? | 好吗? |
| 503 | At the very, very global frontier. | 在非常,非常全球的前沿。 |
| 504 | And this is again, not just in the centers, | 再说一遍,不只是在中心 |
| 505 | but everywhere. | 但无处不在 |
| 506 | The ones that boosted or had the strongest policy had the biggest impact. | 那些加强政策或政策最强的政策影响最大。 |
| 507 | So it's really highly incontrovertible, the strength, the power of that coordination, | 因此,这是非常不可争辩的, 力量,协调的力量, |
| 508 | that mobilization of the state. | 动员国家。 |
| 509 | It's not the subsidies. | 这不是补贴。 |
| 510 | People think it's just the financial | 人们觉得只是财政问题 |
| 511 | subsidy, and they subsidize lots of things that failed, but it's that supply chain coordination, | 补贴,他们补贴很多 失败的东西, 但这是供应链协调, |
| 512 | it's the actually pushing the private sector, enabling them to do all the work. | 这是真正推动私营部门, 使他们能够做所有的工作。 |
| 513 | And again, | 再说一遍 |
| 514 | you draw the same map for EVs, same picture. | 您为 EVs 绘制相同的地图,同样的图片。 |
| 515 | It's a desert versus, you know, 100 flowers | 这是沙漠对100朵花 |
| 516 | in bloom. | 在开花。 |
| 517 | And they're using that approach to tackle these new sectors, and they're dominating, | 他们用这种方法来处理这些新的部门, 他们主导着, |
| 518 | right? | 对吧? |
| 519 | So that is a very powerful model. | 这是一个非常强大的模型。 |
| 520 | And hence, this is why we're seeing in the US, | 这就是为什么我们在美国看到, |
| 521 | a countervailing kind of effort to say, we need to do industrial policies. | 可以说,我们需要采取工业政策。 |
| 522 | I say, if you just say, | 我说,如果你只是说, |
| 523 | if you say China's so bad all the time, why are you looking more and more like the China model? | 如果你一直说中国很坏 为什么你越来越像中国模特儿? |
| 524 | Right? | 对吧? |
| 525 | But we have to also understand the weaknesses, right? | 但我们也必须了解弱点,对吧? |
| 526 | This is a very strong | 这个很强壮 |
| 527 | system for innovation production, but a much more weaker one for consumption. | 创新生产系统,但消费系统更弱。 |
| 528 | So it's a complex picture. | 所以这是一张复杂的图片。 |
| 529 | But I think China has all the chips in its favor to reach much higher | 但我认为中国有所有的筹码 有利于它达到更高的水平 |
| 530 | potential. | 潜力。 |
| 531 | Again, if you look at the key cities that reach 30,000 per capita income, just by | 如果你再看看那些人均收入达到30,000的关键城市, |
| 532 | internal convergence of the cities to richer cities within China, there will be some good growth | 城市内部与中国较富裕城市的汇合 将会有良好的增长 |
| 533 | to accomplish, just like in the US, states converge eventually over time. | 完成,就像在美国, 各州最终会逐渐汇合。 |
| 534 | But the question is, | 但问题是, |
| 535 | can you get to the long term by doing the short term? | 你能通过做短期工作实现长远目标吗? |
| 536 | Sorry, it was a long-winded discussion. | 抱歉,讨论很长 |
| 537 | Thanks, Dr. Jin, for the very insightful sharing. | 谢谢你,金博士,非常深刻的分享。 |
| 538 | I just want to ask a question on the Chinese | 我只是想问一个中国人的问题 |
| 539 | market, especially for foreign capital continuing to double down on Chinese market. | 市场,特别是外国资本在中国市场上继续翻一番。 |
| 540 | And especially, | 尤其是, |
| 541 | for example, TR Capital is also taking a watch and monitor stance. | 例如,TR Capital也在采取监视和监测立场。 |
| 542 | When do you think is the | 你觉得什么时候 |
| 543 | taking point for foreign capital, especially PE investors coming back to the Chinese market | 吸引外国资本,特别是PE投资者回到中国市场 |
| 544 | to continue to invest in Chinese portfolio companies? | 继续投资中国证券公司? |
| 545 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 546 | I'm obviously not an expert investor. | 我显然不是一个专家投资者。 |
| 547 | You guys are. | 你们是。 |
| 548 | But I think as with any stimulus, | 但我认为任何刺激, |
| 549 | whether it's the US or anywhere, it takes a few months to show up, right? | 不管是美国还是任何地方 都要花几个月才能出现 对吧? |
| 550 | And how long this is | 还要多久 |
| 551 | going to take, I can't really judge at this point. | 接下来,我不能真正判断这一点。 |
| 552 | They're also going to level up in terms of more | 他们也会升级 更多 |
| 553 | different types of stimulus on services, on consumption, potentially consumption vouchers | 对服务、消费、潜在消费凭证的不同类型的刺激 |
| 554 | and all of that. | 这一切。 |
| 555 | But really the important thing is, when is confidence really going to be regained? | 但真正重要的是,什么时候真正恢复信心? |
| 556 | Because some of the reaction in the near term is, yes, there's a stimulus, but I'm still very | 因为近期内的一些反应是,是的,有一个刺激,但我仍然非常 |
| 557 | reluctant to spend, right? | 不愿花,对不对? |
| 558 | So judging the timing is going to be a little bit tricky. | 所以判断时机会有点困难。 |
| 559 | But as the | 但作为 |
| 560 | move to an equilibrium, and they're seeing that signal, and companies can invest again, | 他们看到信号 公司可以再投资 |
| 561 | I think it is a path towards recovery. | 我认为这是一条走向复苏的道路。 |
| 562 | But I think the important thing is, | 但我认为重要的是 |
| 563 | as we were talking earlier, I always say, do your homework, right? | 正如我们刚才说的,我总是说,做你的功课,对不对? |
| 564 | And the way to do your homework, | 还有做功课的方法 |
| 565 | first of all, is to go see China, talk to some of these Chinese companies, understand the reality. | 首先,是去看中国,跟一些中国公司谈话,了解现实. |
| 566 | I think the reality is a very challenging macro picture that could potentially improve, | 我认为现实是一个非常具有挑战性的宏观情况,它有可能改善, |
| 567 | but still very, very good and solid companies at the micro level. | 但还是非常,非常好和坚实的公司 在微观层面。 |
| 568 | And to make a judgment based on | 并作出基于 |
| 569 | accurate information and to get a sense, a feel of the vibe, of the spirit, what are people, | 准确的信息,并获得感知, 感觉的氛围, 精神,什么是人, |
| 570 | people are still motivated, are they still quite at least looking forward to a new path. | 人们仍然有积极性,他们至少仍然相当期待一条新的道路。 |
| 571 | So I think | 所以我觉得 |
| 572 | the timing is hard to tell, but I would say that many of us expect that the bottom has, | 时机很难说,但我要说,我们许多人期望底部有, |
| 573 | the Chinese economy has already bottomed. | 中国经济已经下沉。 |
| 574 | Perhaps I could add to that. | 也许我可以补充一下。 |
| 575 | Look at what | 看这个 |
| 576 | happened two months ago on public market in China. | 发生在两个月前的中国公共市场。 |
| 577 | And I split here public and private market. | 我在这里分割了公共和私人市场。 |
| 578 | The minute you've had an announce of stimulus plan, the public market went crazy up. | 你一宣布刺激计划 公共市场就疯狂了 |
| 579 | Obviously, there is more inertia for private markets, so that's very different. | 显然,私人市场有更多的惰性,所以这非常不同. |
| 580 | But I would | 但我会 |
| 581 | say that the minute you start to see some signs of weakness in the US economy, and they've been so | 说一旦你看到美国经济有些疲软的迹象 他们就一直如此 |
| 582 | strong in the past few years that, you know, for the moment, we don't see it. | 在过去几年里,我们没有看到它。 |
| 583 | But the minute you | 但是,当你的那一刻 |
| 584 | will have this, where else do you want to invest? | 你还想投资到哪里去? |
| 585 | Is it going to be Europe? | 会不会是欧洲? |
| 586 | Maybe not. | 也许不是。 |
| 587 | So let's see. | 让我们来看看。 |
| 588 | But I think that will be a triggering point as well. | 但我认为这也是一个触发点。 |
| 589 | Thank you for sharing your thoughts. | 谢谢你分享你的想法 |
| 590 | I guess one question that a lot of people have is, with the leadership transition, I think a lot of | 我想很多人都有一个问题 就是随着领导权的转变 我认为 |
| 591 | pragmatism gave way to ideology. | 务实主义让位于意识形态。 |
| 592 | And I think we've seen a lot of that in the last couple of years. | 我想我们在过去的几年里见过很多这样的事。 |
| 593 | Now we're seeing, you know, these stimulus packages and so on. | 现在我们看到,你知道,这些刺激计划等等。 |
| 594 | Is this bowing to reality, | 这是向现实鞠躬吗? |
| 595 | so to speak, a tactical move based on pressures that are faced now? | 也就是说,基于现在面临的压力的战术行动? |
| 596 | And | 还有 |
| 597 | investors should expect more ideology down the road? | 投资者应该期待 更多的意识形态在道路上? |
| 598 | Or do you think this is a strategic shift | 还是你认为这是战略转变? |
| 599 | where we are back to the road to pragmatism? | 我们回到务实之路? |
| 600 | No, I think that's a very good question, | 不,我认为这是一个非常好的问题, |
| 601 | keen observation. | 敏锐观察. |
| 602 | You've seen China's pendulum swing, right, from extremely closed to really, | 你见过中国的摇摆,没错, 从极封闭到真正的, |
| 603 | open and a lot of policy experiments. | 开放和很多政策实验。 |
| 604 | I firmly believe, and I wouldn't say the focus was on | 我坚信,我不会说焦点是 |
| 605 | ideology. | 意识形态。 |
| 606 | I think that's the Western portrayal because it's a different thing. | 我认为这是西方的描绘,因为它是不同的事物。 |
| 607 | And they do talk | 他们说话 |
| 608 | about it. | 关于它。 |
| 609 | But I think there was a lot of focus on social issues, right, society, the people, | 但我认为有很多关注 社会问题,正确的,社会,人民, |
| 610 | the grassroots, a lot on, you know, purging kind of the wealthy and or reducing inequality, | 草根,很多,你知道, 净化那种富人 或减少不平等, |
| 611 | inequities, things that actually the West talks about all the time, big tech and regulations | 不平等,西方经常谈论的事情, 大型的科技和规章 |
| 612 | anti-corruption, right? | 反腐败,对不对? |
| 613 | I think it was, that is actually also practical, but it's just not | 我认为,这是,实际上也是实用的, 但只是不 |
| 614 | practical in an economic sense. | 经济意义上的实用性。 |
| 615 | So I don't think it's this Marxist-Leninist kind of shrouding thing | 所以我不认为这是马克思列宁主义 那种遮掩的东西 |
| 616 | where people are, you know, really going back into that kind of era. | 在那里人们,你知道, 真正的回到那种时代。 |
| 617 | I don't think it's that. | 亦不觉. |
| 618 | It's that preference to deal with social issues, but in a way that has hurt the economy, right? | 处理社会问题的偏好是那样,但以伤害经济的方式,对不对? |
| 619 | Should we be surprised by that? | 我们是否应该对此感到惊讶? |
| 620 | No, I'm not surprised because I study economic history and | 不 我不惊讶 因为我研究经济史 |
| 621 | I've seen what happens when you tackle these kind of things. | 我见过你处理这些事情会怎样 |
| 622 | See, a lot of countries give up the | 你看,许多国家放弃 |
| 623 | pro-growth agenda too early on, and that's what happens. | 支持增长的议程太早了,这就是结果。 |
| 624 | And I think there was a deviation | 我觉得有偏差 |
| 625 | detraction. | 贬低。 |
| 626 | I firmly believe that that is a lesson learned. | 我坚信,这是一个经验教训。 |
| 627 | That's a lesson learned, | 这是一个教训, |
| 628 | and that's not the approach. | 而这不是方法。 |
| 629 | Now, these issues will still be important, just like they are | 现在,这些问题仍然很重要,就像它们一样 |
| 630 | in other countries, but how they're going to be dealt with is going to be much more discreet, | 在其他国家, 但如何处理它们 将会更加谨慎, |
| 631 | much more with greater discretion, and maybe put on hold for a while. | 更需要更多的酌处权,也许可以暂时搁置。 |
| 632 | You know, lots of the things | 你知道,很多东西 |
| 633 | that were said about capitalism, about capital, about real estate, you don't hear any of that | 有人说资本主义,资本,房地产,你听不懂 |
| 634 | anymore, okay? | 现在,好吗? |
| 635 | They've paused that. | 他们暂停了 |
| 636 | And also, you know, kind of sustaining confidence, managing | 还有,你知道,一种 保持信心,管理 |
| 637 | market expectations, it's not a coordinated thing in the Chinese government, right? | 市场预期,这不是一个协调的事情 在中国政府,对不对? |
| 638 | One should look | 应该看看 |
| 639 | at the whole picture. | 整个画面。 |
| 640 | You know, the Fed chair chooses very, very carefully everything he says, | 你知道,联邦主席非常非常非常小心地选择 他说的一切, |
| 641 | but in China, that experience is not mature, right, of how to sustain confidence and market | 但在中国,这种经验并不成熟 如何维持信心和市场 |
| 642 | expectations and communicate in a transparent, predictable manner. | 以透明、可预测的方式进行交流。 |
| 643 | I think this time was a | 我觉得这次是 |
| 644 | lesson learned. | 吸取教训。 |
| 645 | So from my prediction is that these issues will still be important and we'll | 所以我的预测是 这些问题仍然很重要 我们将 |
| 646 | hear about them, but even common prosperity, you don't hear that anymore so much, right? | 听说了,但即使是共同的繁荣, 你不再听到这么多,对不对? |
| 647 | But | 不过 |
| 648 | revive the growth agenda, and if you were to deal with these issues, deal with it in much more | 重振增长议程,如果你要处理这些问题,就更进一步地处理这一问题。 |
| 649 | delicate and different ways. | 微妙和不同的方式。 |
| 650 | So I don't think it's just a temporary, you know, kind of strategic | 所以我不认为这只是暂时的,你知道的, 一种战略 |
| 651 | response. | 反应。 |
| 652 | Dr. Jin, thank you for the sharing. | 金博士 谢谢你的分享 |
| 653 | Very insightful. | 很有见识 |
| 654 | So double-clicking on your | 所以双击你 |
| 655 | observations on the stimulus package and the consumer behavior a little bit. | 关于刺激计划 和消费者行为的一些观察。 |
| 656 | So we all see | 我们都看到了 |
| 657 | that Chinese people are, you know, very adaptive, resilient. | 中国人民,你知道, 非常适应性强,有弹性。 |
| 658 | We save a lot and we try to spend as | 我们省了很多钱,我们试图作为 |
| 659 | much as we can, and really don't complain much. | 尽量不要抱怨太多 |
| 660 | It's the best people that any government could ask | 这是最好的人,任何政府可以问 |
| 661 | for. | 为. |
| 662 | But on the other side, looking from what the government's behavior, the stimulus package | 但另一方面,从政府的行为来看,刺激计划 |
| 663 | has always been more on the supply side of things, and I heard an analogy last week | 我上周听到一个类比 |
| 664 | saying that our government is like a grumpy old grandpa who's very strict and just don't want | 说我们的政府就像一个脾气暴躁的老爷爷 他非常严格,只是不想 |
| 665 | to spoil their children by giving them just one candy. | 只要给孩子一块糖 就能宠坏他们的孩子 |
| 666 | And since you are closely advising some of | 既然你一直很贴心的劝告 |
| 667 | some of the decision makers, I hope, do you think, you know, there is any advocate or voice | 一些决策者,我希望,你认为, 你知道,有 任何倡导者或声音 |
| 668 | in the decision makers for more of a demand side policy going on? | * 在决策者中开展更多的需求方政策? |
| 669 | And if so, what should we be | 如果是这样,我们应该是什么 |
| 670 | expecting? | 等着? |
| 671 | I think just to put it more accurately, I sit in some of the discussions among policy | 我想说得更准确点 我参加了政策讨论 |
| 672 | makers, but I don't think that any of us has any advising role here, and that's part of the problem | 制造者,但我不认为我们谁 有任何建议的作用 在这里,这是问题的一部分 |
| 673 | where a lot of the expert opinion is not really necessarily heeded compared to the past. | 与过去相比,许多专家意见并不一定得到重视。 |
| 674 | But I | 不过 |
| 675 | think if you look at the technocratic level and the policy makers level, there is a great sense | 想想看技术官僚阶层和决策者阶层, 有一种伟大的感觉 |
| 676 | of pragmatism about what to do, but whether that is heeded and whether they are bold enough to make | 对做什么是务实的,但是否注意到这一点,以及他们是否胆大妄为 |
| 677 | such radical suggestions, I think that kind of urge has substantially subsided compared to the | 我认为,这种强烈的呼声已经大大减弱,而与之相比, |
| 678 | past. | 过去 |
| 679 | Who wants to take responsibility for major actions? | 谁想对重大行动负责? |
| 680 | Nobody really wants to do that anymore, | 没有人真的想这样做了, |
| 681 | so that's also part of the political economy problem with some of the things that we're seeing. | 这也是政治经济问题的一部分 与我们所看到的事物。 |
| 682 | But on a more technical base level, I think there will be a greater shift to the demand side | 但是,在更技术性的层面上,我认为将会有更大的转向需求方 |
| 683 | stimulus. | 刺激。 |
| 684 | The question is how, and how is it going to be effective, right? | 问题是如何,如何有效? |
| 685 | Obviously not by | 显然不是通过 |
| 686 | mailing checks, right? | 邮件支票,对不对? |
| 687 | But because they just won't be spent. | 因为他们不会花掉的 |
| 688 | I think there was a discussion about | 我想有人讨论过 |
| 689 | these consumption-expiring vouchers, for instance, as something, but how do you actually get it to | 比如说,这些消费过期的券, 是什么,但你实际上如何得到它 |
| 690 | the people who need it the most? | 那些最需要的人吗? |
| 691 | There's this discussion about whether this would also be | 讨论是否也会是 |
| 692 | done through the digital currency, the digital RMB, so that people in the most remote or most | 通过数字货币,数字人民币实现,使最偏远或最偏远的人 |
| 693 | worse off segment of society can have access. | 社会上更糟糕的阶层可以进入。 |
| 694 | These are the people they want to target. | 这些是他们想要对付的人。 |
| 695 | At this | 在这个 |
| 696 | point, they think it's not ready, and so you can't get it to them, and the marginal propensity to | 点,他们认为它还没有准备好, 所以你不能得到它给他们, |
| 697 | consume is not going to be very high, so there's some technical debates around that as well. | 消费不会很高,所以也有一些技术辩论。 |
| 698 | But I think we've seen quite a bit of stimulus also on the services, movies and restaurants and | 但我想我们也看到了一些刺激 服务,电影和餐馆, |
| 699 | all of that, so I think it will be coming. | 这一切,所以我想它会来。 |
| 700 | They are debating about whether it's going to be | 他们正在辩论是否 |
| 701 | effective, because you need people to get them to spend, so the supply side they can control, | 有效的,因为你需要人 让他们花费, 所以供给方可以控制, |
| 702 | and they obviously always put a much greater emphasis on production over consumption, | 它们显然总是更强调生产而不是消费, |
| 703 | but now it's obviously a balance of the two, so I think we'll see more coming. | 但是现在这显然是两者的平衡, 所以我想我们会看到更多的未来。 |
| 704 | Thanks a lot for your sharing. | 谢谢你的分享 |
| 705 | I have two questions. | 我有个问题 |
| 706 | You already touched it a bit, | 你已经摸过它了 |
| 707 | but maybe you can go a bit further on this one, on real estate. | 但也许你可以更进一步 关于房地产。 |
| 708 | How do you see real estate | 你怎么看房地产 |
| 709 | progress in the next two to three years, since I think it's a big driver for consumption? | 接下来两三年的进展,因为我认为它是消费的大驱动力? |
| 710 | And on the other side, when you look at the US, how far is the US willing to go | 而另一方面,当你看着美国, 美国愿意走多远 |
| 711 | in terms of maybe hurting China? | 也许伤害中国? |
| 712 | At the moment we hear tariffs. | 现在,我们听到关税。 |
| 713 | Are they considering other measures, like sanctioning China, like avoiding capital exchange? | 他们是否考虑过其他措施,比如制裁中国,比如避免资本交换? |
| 714 | How far do you think, if things get tough, where can it go? | 你认为,如果事情变得艰难,它能走到哪里? |
| 715 | Yes, two very important questions. | 是的,两个非常重要的问题。 |
| 716 | The real estate transition usually takes place over a | 房地产的过渡通常发生在 |
| 717 | 10-year horizon, finding an equilibrium. | 十年,寻找平衡。 |
| 718 | This was basically squeezed into three, | 这基本上是挤成三, |
| 719 | and that's why we've seen some of these major collisions. | 这就是为什么我们看到了一些 这些主要的碰撞。 |
| 720 | Now, this is not Japan. | 这不是日本。 |
| 721 | You really | 痷 |
| 722 | had a massive asset price collapse that hurt all the balance sheet banking system and so forth. | 导致资产价格暴跌 导致资产负债表银行系统受损 |
| 723 | It was hard to recover. | 很难恢复 |
| 724 | We haven't really seen that in China. | 我们还没有真正看到在中国。 |
| 725 | There's a significant mismatch | 有一个很大的不匹配 |
| 726 | between supply and demand, and then ultimately a wealth effect that affects people's consumption. | 在供求之间,最后是影响人们消费的财富效应。 |
| 727 | In the long term, it's about searching for an equilibrium, where eventually things are going | 从长远来看,这是在寻找一个平衡, 在那里,事情最终会发展 |
| 728 | to adjust. | 要调整。 |
| 729 | Prices will adjust so that supply and demand equilibrate, and that's going to take | 价格会调整 这样供求平衡, 这将需要 |
| 730 | a long time or a while to happen. | 很久或一阵子 |
| 731 | Currently, there's something like 140 million vacant or | 目前,大约有1.4亿个空缺 |
| 732 | excess capacity apartments, flats. | 超容量公寓、公寓。 |
| 733 | How do you feel that over time? | 你怎么看 随着时间的推移? |
| 734 | The demand is there. | 需求就在那里。 |
| 735 | The pent-up | 倒笔 |
| 736 | demand is there, I should say. | 我应该说,需求是存在的。 |
| 737 | I'm sure people here are aware of this, but do not forget about | 我敢肯定,这里的人知道这一点, 但不要忘记 |
| 738 | the massive under-educated, under-employed people in the rural areas. | 农村地区大量受教育不足、就业不足的人。 |
| 739 | We talk about China as if it's | 我们谈论中国就像它 |
| 740 | just Beijing, Shanghai, and the slowdowns in the first tier cities, but first of all, there is | 只是北京,上海, 以及一级城市的减速, 但首先, |
| 741 | massive untapped potential there. | 巨大的未开发潜力在那里。 |
| 742 | If you look at the disparity between urban rule and everything, | 如果你看看城市统治和一切的差别 |
| 743 | education, human capital, health, social infrastructure, everything, it's massive. | 教育,人力资本,卫生,社会基础设施,一切,都是巨大的. |
| 744 | It's not as if China is at a point where it's already reached Japan or South Korea or Hong Kong | 又不是中国已经到达日本、韩国、香港 |
| 745 | and Singapore when they start to level off. | 和新加坡,当他们开始平息。 |
| 746 | It's not the case at all. | 根本就没有 |
| 747 | There's a massive | 有一个巨大的 |
| 748 | heterogeneity in China, and again, there's untapped potential. | 中国的异质性, 再一次,还有未开发的潜力。 |
| 749 | They all want an apartment | 他们都想要一个公寓 |
| 750 | in the cities, access to education for their children and social infrastructure. | 在城市,其子女接受教育的机会和社会基础设施。 |
| 751 | If you | 如果你们 |
| 752 | calculate that, and the ownership rate in China is very high. | 计算,中国的拥有率非常高. |
| 753 | That's a sign of prestige and a sign | 这是威望的征兆和征兆 |
| 754 | of security. | 警卫人员。 |
| 755 | Also, we joke about this is actually not the joke because there are more men than women. | 而且,我们开这个玩笑其实不是笑话 因为男人比女人多 |
| 756 | It's better for bachelors to have a property to acquire a wife, nothing different from Jane | 单身汉最好有地产 娶个老婆,跟简没什么两样 |
| 757 | Oskin in the 19th century. | 19世纪奥斯金. |
| 758 | There's a kind of saying that the sex differentials or the ratios, | 有种说法,性别差异或比率, |
| 759 | the higher the housing prices in some of these regions. | 这些地区的住房价格越高。 |
| 760 | If you look at all these numbers, | 如果你看所有这些数字, |
| 761 | it's a matter of time of equilibrating the supply and demand. | 这是时间问题 平衡供求。 |
| 762 | In the short term, | 在短期内, |
| 763 | I think the government's approach is, first of all, provide much more affordable housing to the | 我认为,政府的方针是,首先,为人民提供更廉价的住房。 |
| 764 | middle class, turning some of that into affordable housing, lower rents. | 中产阶级,把其中一部分变成负担得起的住房,降低租金。 |
| 765 | There is a village called | 有一个村庄叫 |
| 766 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}一个村庄重建 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}就连北京的某个村庄 | |
| 767 | They're taking up some of these properties. | 他们占用了这些房产 |
| 768 | They're taking inspiration from the Singapore model | 他们从新加坡模式中汲取灵感 |
| 769 | where you have a very high percentage of what they call public housing or cheaper housing, | 您拥有高比例的公共住房或廉价住房, |
| 770 | community housing. | 社区住房。 |
| 771 | There are a number of tactics. | 有一些战术。 |
| 772 | There's a white list of property developers that | 有一份白名单的地产开发者 |
| 773 | want to keep absolutely secure financially to sustain it. | 想要保持财政上绝对的安全 来维持它。 |
| 774 | The rest will just adjust with the | 其余的只是调整一下 |
| 775 | market. | 市场。 |
| 776 | There's also significant stress tests on the banking system, which seems to be still okay | 银行系统也有重大压力测试 似乎还不错 |
| 777 | with the current shock. | 与当前的冲击。 |
| 778 | How painful is this going to be? | 这会有多痛苦? |
| 779 | It's hard to judge, but it's not as if | 很难判断,但不像 |
| 780 | there's going to be a major financial implosion. | 将发生重大财务内爆 |
| 781 | That's the real estate question. | 这是房地产问题。 |
| 782 | Now, I think | 现在,我想 |
| 783 | that the first of all, how far is the U.S. going to go? | 首先,美国会走多远? |
| 784 | I think at least with the Biden | 我至少觉得和拜登人在一起 |
| 785 | administration, we can still see that there is desire to engage, manage, or even deter | 我们仍能看到,人们渴望参与、管理、甚至阻止 |
| 786 | that kind of sense that the communication has to be there and that it wouldn't be just completely | 那种感觉 沟通必须在那里 而且不会是完全的 |
| 787 | widespread. | 广泛。 |
| 788 | Although some people believe that Biden's policies were much more detrimental, | 虽然有些人认为拜登的政策更加有害, |
| 789 | because as we mentioned, the trade stuff. | 因为正如我们提到的,交易的东西。 |
| 790 | Trade gets rerouted. | 贸易改道了 |
| 791 | It's more costly. | 更贵. |
| 792 | Fine. | 还好 |
| 793 | But critical | 但关键 |
| 794 | technologies, that's more detrimental. | 技术,这更有害。 |
| 795 | However, there's also a reaction to many of these policies. | 然而,对于许多这样的政策也有反应. |
| 796 | It's not like U.S. can actually stop Chinese from the China from growing. | 美国实际上不能阻止中国人从中国种植. |
| 797 | That is, I think, a fantasy, | 我觉得那是个幻想 |
| 798 | if you will. | 如果你愿意的话。 |
| 799 | Even if you look at the technological response, the reaction first of all is a whole | 即使你看看技术反应 首先反应是整个 |
| 800 | national mobilization to overcome these restrictions or a new motivation to do better. | 国家动员起来克服这些限制,或有新的动力来做得更好。 |
| 801 | I remember this story, and I think it's an important one to point out. | 我记得这个故事,我认为这是一个重要的故事来指出. |
| 802 | In the 1990s, | 在20世纪90年代, |
| 803 | there were American lobbyist groups that were brought to China to plead them to import U.S. | 有美国游说团体被带往中国 请求他们进口美国 |
| 804 | chips. | 筹码. |
| 805 | And out of goodwill, the Chinese did that. | 出于善意,中国人这样做了。 |
| 806 | And guess what happened to the semiconductors | 猜猜半导体发生了什么 |
| 807 | industry? | 工业? |
| 808 | It stalled. | 它停滞了。 |
| 809 | The best way to actually boost a sector is to actually cut off the ties. | 真正促进一个部门的最佳方式是实际切断联系。 |
| 810 | And actually, it's the home country that usually does that. | 实际上,是母国通常这样做。 |
| 811 | That's called industry | 这叫工业 |
| 812 | infant industry protection. | 婴幼儿产业保护. |
| 813 | Here, U.S. is doing it on China's behalf. | 在这里,美国是代表中国这样做的. |
| 814 | And so if you look at all | 所以,如果你看看这一切 |
| 815 | the semiconductors company, you guys will know better, but at least from the statistics, I've | 半导体公司,你们会知道的更好, 但至少从统计,我已经 |
| 816 | seen many, many of these companies' profits has raised, what, six times? | 看到很多,许多这些公司的利润 已经提高了,什么,六倍? |
| 817 | Or the average public | 或者普通公众 |
| 818 | 30% growth in profits because China spends as much on oil as it does on chips, and all of this is | 利润增长30% 因为中国花在石油上的钱 和花在薯片上的钱一样多 而这一切 |
| 819 | now redirected to domestic chipmakers. | 现在转向国内芯片制造商。 |
| 820 | Also, a lot of these EV companies and users, they don't | 而且,很多这些EV公司和用户,他们不 |
| 821 | feel comfortable using Nvidia chips or American chips because what if they are, so they start | 使用Nvidia芯片或美国芯片感觉很舒服, 因为如果它们是,所以它们开始 |
| 822 | to shift away to domestic opportunities. | 转向国内机会。 |
| 823 | So you see, that's actually sped up the innovation | 所以,你看,这实际上加速了创新 |
| 824 | and development and that, and it will accelerate in my view, especially in some of these high-tech | 我认为,这将加速发展,特别是在一些高科技领域。 |
| 825 | sectors. | 部门。 |
| 826 | It will accelerate the progress. | 这将加快进展。 |
| 827 | So can the U.S. really, and I think they will adjust | 美国也一样,我想他们会调整 |
| 828 | these policies over time. | 这些政策随时间演变。 |
| 829 | I mean, look at the Huawei's new phone and all that. | 我是说 看看华威的新手机 |
| 830 | These are, | 这些是, |
| 831 | there's so many stories like that coming that, you know, I don't know how many people have heard | 你知道,我不知道有多少人听说过 |
| 832 | this one, but I was really, I thought it was hilarious when, you know, Huawei made this | 这个,但我真的很,我觉得这很有趣 当,你知道,华伟做的这个 |
| 833 | and the Chinese people were, there was like a euphoria saying maybe even thanks to Biden's | 而中国人民, 似乎有一个喜悦 说也许甚至感谢拜登 |
| 834 | policies, China could do that. | 中国可以这样做。 |
| 835 | So they were saying, oh, President Biden, could you also please | 所以他们说,哦,拜登总统,你也可以 |
| 836 | sanction our men's national football team too to make them better? | 制裁我们的国家足球队 让他们更好? |
| 837 | You know, so you, it's never | 你知道,所以你,它从来没有 |
| 838 | a static thing. | 一个静态的东西。 |
| 839 | It's a reaction. | 是反应 |
| 840 | Be very careful what you do. | 要非常小心你所做的一切。 |
| 841 | If we look at history, starting from | 如果我们看历史,从 |
| 842 | the Napoleonic blockades, every time you have a blockade, you actually push the others to innovate, | 拿破仑式的封锁 每一次你受到封锁 你都会逼迫其他人创新 |
| 843 | and we have many, many historical episodes. | 我们有很多,很多历史故事 |
| 844 | So that doesn't directly answer your question, | 所以这不能直接回答你的问题 |
| 845 | but I think it is actually also a fluid thing. | 但我认为这其实也是个流畅的东西。 |
| 846 | Maybe just one final question, because I mean, | 也许只是最后一个问题,因为我的意思是, |
| 847 | of course, China is a very complicated country to understand, a fascinating one. | 当然,中国是一个非常复杂的国家,令人着迷。 |
| 848 | You said to everyone | 你对大家说 |
| 849 | here, do your homework. | 在这里,做你的功课。 |
| 850 | I'm sure people will do. | 我敢肯定,人们会这样做。 |
| 851 | If you had one other advice for the people in the | 如果你有其他建议 |
| 852 | room, for the investors here to give, what would this be today? | 今天会是什么情况? |
| 853 | Well, first of all, keep an open | 首先,保持开放 |
| 854 | mind. | 头脑。 |
| 855 | I mean, if anything, if I went to the West, that was what it was telling me, teaching me. | 我的意思是,如果有什么,如果我去西方, 这就是它告诉我,教我。 |
| 856 | Question, question what you read, question so-called authority, and have an open mind. | 问曰,问汝读甚么书,问所谓权威,且有开悟之心. |
| 857 | Let's suspend some of these suspicions, which I think is shrouded in misunderstanding of culture, | 让我们暂停一些这些怀疑, 我认为它隐藏在对文化的误解中, |
| 858 | of values, and see it from the other perspective, and not impose one lens or one model on everybody | 从另一个角度看 而不是把一个镜头或一个模型强加于每个人 |
| 859 | else. | 别的 |
| 860 | We're always going to make everything, make so many mistakes based on that. | 我们总是会做出一切, 做出如此众多的错误 基于这一点。 |
| 861 | I think this is a | 我觉得这是 |
| 862 | reaction globally towards the US, towards Western Europe. | 全球对美国,对西欧的反应。 |
| 863 | Many countries are saying, don't impose | 很多国家都在说,不要强迫 |
| 864 | and don't teach us just one lesson that has worked for you. | 别教我们一个对你有用的教训 |
| 865 | Understand our conditions, | 了解我们的条件, |
| 866 | our situation. | 我们的情况。 |
| 867 | Again, do your homework. | 再来,做你的作业。 |
| 868 | Try to understand what the real circumstances is. | 试着了解真实情况 |
| 869 | So I think keeping the mind open, read, see China from the inside out and outside in, | 所以,我想保持开放的头脑, 阅读,看到中国 从内外, |
| 870 | and do that exercise. | 并做到这一点。 |
| 871 | And I think that there will be so many more opportunities to actually make | 我认为,会有更多的机会 真正制造 |
| 872 | everybody better off. | 每个人都好。 |
| 873 | So thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 874 | Thank you very much, K.U. | 非常感谢,K. U. |
| 875 | That was great to have you here with | 很高兴你能来 |
| 876 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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