【双语音+文稿】美国正陷入经济危机的困境——经济学博主：Ec
共 1 集
剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 【双语音+文稿】美国正陷入经济危机的困境——经济学博主：Ec | 32:44 |
P1 · 【双语音+文稿】美国正陷入经济危机的困境——经济学博主：Econoclasts p01 英文版 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | The private sector in America is loading up with debt like never before. | 美国私营部门负债累累 前所未有的。 |
| 0:03 | I am predicting that the U.S. will have a debt crisis. | 我预言美国将面临债务危机. |
| 0:06 | Default, when you are in a debt crisis, is happening. | 当你陷入债务危机时,违约正在发生。 |
| 0:10 | The question is, who is going to pay the price of the default? | 问题是,谁要支付违约的代价? |
| 0:13 | There's always an American economist who will tell me, | 总有一位美国经济学家会告诉我 |
| 0:15 | don't worry, we are the anchor currency, the dollar is the global reserve currency. | 别担心,我们是固定货币,美元是全球储备货币。 |
| 0:18 | The U.S. cannot default, full stop. | 美国不能违约,全停. |
| 0:20 | And that's just nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 0:22 | If this breaks, then you have every reason to be fearful. | 如果这断了 你就有理由害怕 |
| 0:25 | We're heading into a broader-based crisis of the global financial system as a whole. | 我们正面临全球金融系统整体上一个更广泛的危机。 |
展开字幕全文（767 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The private sector in America is loading up with debt like never before. | 美国私营部门负债累累 前所未有的。 |
| 2 | I am predicting that the U.S. will have a debt crisis. | 我预言美国将面临债务危机. |
| 3 | Default, when you are in a debt crisis, is happening. | 当你陷入债务危机时,违约正在发生。 |
| 4 | The question is, who is going to pay the price of the default? | 问题是,谁要支付违约的代价? |
| 5 | There's always an American economist who will tell me, | 总有一位美国经济学家会告诉我 |
| 6 | don't worry, we are the anchor currency, the dollar is the global reserve currency. | 别担心,我们是固定货币,美元是全球储备货币。 |
| 7 | The U.S. cannot default, full stop. | 美国不能违约,全停. |
| 8 | And that's just nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 9 | If this breaks, then you have every reason to be fearful. | 如果这断了 你就有理由害怕 |
| 10 | We're heading into a broader-based crisis of the global financial system as a whole. | 我们正面临全球金融系统整体上一个更广泛的危机。 |
| 11 | If our global financial sector is not going to hold, | 如果我们的全球金融部门无法维持 |
| 12 | that will be a singularity in our modern history. | 这将是我们现代历史上的一个奇特之处。 |
| 13 | China could be writing a new chapter in history, | 中国可以写历史新篇章 |
| 14 | and that opportunity will require the Chinese to ensure | 而这一机会将要求中国人确保 |
| 15 | that the benefits from this production-focused AI tech are spread across the population. | 这种以生产为重点的人工智能技术的好处分布在民众中。 |
| 16 | The idea that we have to work longer hours forever, I never accepted this. | 这个想法,我们必须工作更长的时间 永远,我从来没有接受这一点。 |
| 17 | Certainly what I can say from my end is that the approach | 当然,我可以从我的结尾说, 方法 |
| 18 | to start off with open source models seems to me the right one. | 从开源模型开始,在我看来是正确的。 |
| 19 | 欢迎回到Econoclast队 | |
| 20 | It is my great pleasure to welcome back to the program | 我很高兴能回来参加节目 |
| 21 | Wolfgang Munchau, 他离开了, 一个非常值得的节日。 | |
| 22 | And I have to say that currently I speak to you from the Mediterranean Sea. | 我不得不说,我目前正在地中海与你们交谈。 |
| 23 | This is a boat floating, so I'm having my own holiday. | 这是一条漂浮的船, 所以我有我自己的假期。 |
| 24 | But how could I miss the opportunity to welcome Wolfgang back? | 但我怎么能错过欢迎沃尔夫冈回来的机会? |
| 25 | Hello Wolfgang, tell us where you've been. | 哈罗 沃尔夫冈,告诉我们你去哪了 |
| 26 | I've been in cooler waters. | 我去过更凉的水域。 |
| 27 | I've been in the north of Europe. | 历任欧洲北部知县. |
| 28 | My family and I, we took a trip around the Baltic Sea, | 我的家人和我 我们环游波罗的海 |
| 29 | spent quite a bit of time in the Baltic Republics and then in Finland and Sweden. | 在波罗的海各共和国以及芬兰和瑞典度过了相当长的时间。 |
| 30 | There's something we should probably discuss at some point, | 有些事情我们也许应该讨论一下 |
| 31 | something I noted this time. | 这一次我注意到的东西。 |
| 32 | I've been visiting the Baltic Republics before, | 我以前去过波罗的海共和国 |
| 33 | but something I noted for the first time for another podcast, not for today. | 但我第一次注意到 另一个播客,不是今天。 |
| 34 | But I noticed that prices in those countries have risen enormously. | 但我注意到这些国家的价格已经大幅上涨。 |
| 35 | In some respects, it was a relief to go to Finland because things were cheaper. | 在某些方面,去芬兰是一种宽慰,因为事情比较便宜。 |
| 36 | And that was like an almost absurd experience. | 这就像一个几乎荒谬的经历。 |
| 37 | Tell us something about a monetary union, | 告诉我们一个货币联盟, |
| 38 | that the one-size-fits-all policy of a monetary union | 货币联盟的一刀切政策 |
| 39 | that doesn't fit those small countries anymore. | 这已经不适合那些小国了 |
| 40 | And that's something, quite an interesting development | 这是件有趣的事情 |
| 41 | that I didn't quite have on my radar screen. | 我雷达屏幕上没有这个 |
| 42 | Today I would like to talk about something that happened last week. | 今天我想谈谈上周发生的事情。 |
| 43 | The rise in US interest rates, the intervention by the US Treasury Secretary, | 美国利率的上升,美国财政部长的干预, |
| 44 | and the fact that it didn't work really as well as intended. | 和事实,它没有真正 工作如意。 |
| 45 | And I think this is sort of a reminder of the kind of times we're living in, | 我觉得这有点提醒人们 我们生活在什么样的时代, |
| 46 | of the kind of debt-ridden times we are living in. | 那种充满债务的时代 我们生活在。 |
| 47 | The private sector in America is loading up with debt like never before. | 美国私营部门负债累累 前所未有的。 |
| 48 | So is the public sector. | 公共部门也是如此。 |
| 49 | Donald Trump's budget, I thought it was one of the most irresponsible | 唐纳德・特朗普的预算,我认为这是 最不负责任之一 |
| 50 | fiscal plans in US history, is exploding the deficit. | 美国历史上的财政计划正在爆发赤字。 |
| 51 | The Congressional Budget Office has revised the deficit projections. | 国会预算办公室修订了赤字预测。 |
| 52 | And I think we're sort of in a debt trap situation where you pile on debt, | 我认为我们处于一种债务陷阱的情况 你堆积债务, |
| 53 | the markets push up the interest rates, it increases your debt servicing costs. | 市场推高利率 增加你的偿债成本 |
| 54 | So your debt goes up higher by what it was originally projected. | 所以,你的债务上升了 以它最初的预测。 |
| 55 | And as a result, the markets keep on pushing up the interest rates. | 因此,市场不断提高利率。 |
| 56 | This can easily get out of control. | 这很容易失控 |
| 57 | Now, it hasn't gotten out of control. | 现在,它还没有失控。 |
| 58 | We're talking about interest rates of 5.3% around that level in the United States | 美国的利率是5.3%左右 |
| 59 | for 30-year bonds. | 30年的债券 |
| 60 | That's not a debt crisis. | 这不是债务危机。 |
| 61 | But it's an uncomfortable level. | 但它是一个不舒服的水平。 |
| 62 | We're no longer living in the zero interest rate environment. | 我们不再生活在零利率环境下. |
| 63 | It is sort of also a reminder that the United States is not immune to debt issues, | 这也提醒人们,美国不能免除债务问题, |
| 64 | to debt problems. | 解决债务问题。 |
| 65 | For pretty much the last 20, 30 years, whenever I raised the issue of the US deficit, | 过去20、30年里 每次我提出美国赤字的问题 |
| 66 | there was always an American economist who would tell me, | 总是有一位美国经济学家告诉我 |
| 67 | don't worry, we are the anchor currency. | 别担心 我们是固定货币 |
| 68 | We are the dollar is the global reserve currency. | 我们是美元是全球储备货币。 |
| 69 | The US cannot default, full stop. | 美国不能违约,全停。 |
| 70 | And that's just nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 71 | It really is nonsense. | 这真是胡说八道。 |
| 72 | And I think it conflates a number of issues. | 我认为它概括了一些问题。 |
| 73 | Of course, the US can default, anybody can default. | 当然,美国可以违约,任何人都可以违约。 |
| 74 | The fact that the Fed can print money, that doesn't mean that the US cannot default. | 美联储可以印钱 并不意味着美国不能违约 |
| 75 | Every central bank can print money. | 每个中央银行都可以印钞票. |
| 76 | The ECB can print money for every member state. | 欧洲中央银行可以为每个成员国印制货币。 |
| 77 | It doesn't do that. | 它不会做到这一点。 |
| 78 | But it can. | 但它会的。 |
| 79 | The Bank of England can print money. | 英格兰银行可以印钱. |
| 80 | But look at what's happening here in the UK. | 但看看英国发生了什么 |
| 81 | It's not like the fact that the Bank of England can print money | 英国银行不会印钱 |
| 82 | makes the UK immune to debt crisis. | 使英国免于债务危机。 |
| 83 | Very much on the contrary. | 甚处相反. |
| 84 | Well, your story is about debts and deficits. | 你的故事是关于债务和赤字 |
| 85 | My story for today will be about surpluses and will be about China. | 我今天的故事是关于盈余和中国。 |
| 86 | And the orthodoxy that I want to debunk is the standard argument | 我想解开的正统是标准论点 |
| 87 | that for China to escape what I call its rent trap at the moment, | 对于中国逃避我所说的 租金陷阱,目前, |
| 88 | the Chinese, both the private sector and the public sector, | 中国,私营部门和公共部门, |
| 89 | need to go on a spending spree. | 需要花一大笔钱。 |
| 90 | The radical solution I see on the horizon, because this is no solution. | 我在地平线上看到的激进解决方案,因为这不是解决方案。 |
| 91 | Consumerism galore is not a solution. | 消费主义不是解决办法。 |
| 92 | The radical solution I see on the horizon, | 我在地平线上看到的激进解决方案 |
| 93 | and I'm going to be talking about that later on, | 我稍后会谈这个 |
| 94 | concerns the smart use of Chinese AI. | 担心中国AI的聪明使用. |
| 95 | I'm sure this is going to be a controversial point | 我敢肯定,这将是一个有争议的问题 |
| 96 | and I'm looking forward to your response to it. | 我期待着你对它的反应。 |
| 97 | But let's go back to your orthodoxy of the day | 但让我们回到你的正统时代 |
| 98 | about American debt mattering or not mattering. | 关于美国的债务是重要还是不重要。 |
| 99 | Debt is not a problem in itself if you can service it. | 如果你能偿还债务,债务本身就不是一个问题。 |
| 100 | So there isn't such a thing as a correct level of debt | 因此,没有这样的事情 正确的债务水平 |
| 101 | or a maximum level of debt. | 或债务上限。 |
| 102 | The maximum level of debt is the one that you can service. | 债务的最高水平是您可以偿还的债务。 |
| 103 | This is very simple as that. | 这很简单。 |
| 104 | And governments have instruments available to themselves | 政府拥有工具 |
| 105 | that private companies don't. | 私人公司不会的 |
| 106 | They can tax. | 他们可以征税。 |
| 107 | This is why sovereign debt enjoys a special status in the bond markets. | 这就是为什么主权债务在债券市场上享有特殊地位的原因。 |
| 108 | Government must not default. | 政府决不能违约。 |
| 109 | It can always raise the money if it wants to. | 如果愿意,它总是可以筹钱的. |
| 110 | It can choose to default. | 它可以选择默认. |
| 111 | So this is another matter. | 所以这是另一个问题。 |
| 112 | But a private sector borrower can be in a position | 但是,一个私营部门的借款人可以处于一个地位 |
| 113 | where the private sector, where they want to service the debt | 私营部门,它们想偿还债务的地方 |
| 114 | but can't, physically can't. | 但不能,身体上不能。 |
| 115 | Governments are rarely in that possibility, in that situation. | 在这种情况下,政府很少有这种可能性。 |
| 116 | Governments usually have more options available | 政府通常有更多的选择 |
| 117 | than the private sector. | 而不是私营部门。 |
| 118 | And the reserve currency of the world, | 和世界储备货币, |
| 119 | the government of the reserve currency of the world, | 世界储备货币的政府, |
| 120 | the United States, has more options available than others. | 美国比其他国家有更多的选择。 |
| 121 | That's for sure. | 当然 |
| 122 | It has a lot of investments locked up. | 里面有很多投资 |
| 123 | It can tax investments. | 它可以对投资征税。 |
| 124 | As Donald Trump even tried to do at one point, | 唐纳德·特朗普甚至一度试图这么做, |
| 125 | it can impose a tax on all the deposits, | 它可以对所有存款征税, |
| 126 | foreign deposits in the United States. | 外国在美国的存款。 |
| 127 | There's an awful lot they can do to avoid default. | 他们可以做很多事情来避免违约 |
| 128 | And I'm not predicting that the US will default. | 我无法预测美国会违约 |
| 129 | I am predicting that the US will have a debt crisis | 我预测美国将面临债务危机 |
| 130 | and that it will need to act fairly forcefully to counter it, | 并且它需要相当有力的行动来对付它, |
| 131 | either through accepting higher inflation, | 要么接受更高的通胀率, |
| 132 | which is, I think, what they will do, | 我认为,这是他们要做的, |
| 133 | or through taxing foreign investors, | 或通过对外国投资者征税, |
| 134 | or through a combination, | 或通过组合, |
| 135 | or maybe even of defaulting on obligations to their citizens, | 或甚至不履行对其公民的义务, |
| 136 | on health care, on pensions. | 关于医疗保健,关于养老金。 |
| 137 | And we can always default, not only on markets, | 我们总是可以违约, 不仅仅是在市场上, |
| 138 | we can default on our own citizens. | 我们可以放弃自己的公民。 |
| 139 | This is another form of default. | 这是另一种违约形式。 |
| 140 | And I would actually call it that, | 而我会说, |
| 141 | because if you promise people that they have a safe pension | 因为如果你向人们保证 他们有安全的养老金 |
| 142 | and then you rate the pension fund, | 然后把养老基金评分 |
| 143 | that's a form of default. | 这是一种默认形式。 |
| 144 | It is very unlikely that this is sustainable. | 这极不可能是可持续的。 |
| 145 | I'm not a pessimist of the US. | 我不是美国悲观主义者 |
| 146 | I'm not one of these people who say that Trump will fail | 我不是说特朗普会失败的人 |
| 147 | because he's Trump. | 因为他是特朗普。 |
| 148 | And I've been sort of, as listeners and viewers will know, | 我一直有点, 听众和观众会知道, |
| 149 | I've been, I wouldn't say pro-Trump, | 我一直,我不说亲特朗普, |
| 150 | but I've been sort of open-minded about some of the things, | 但我对一些事情有些开明 |
| 151 | especially some of the tariff policies | 特别是一些关税政策 |
| 152 | and some of his economic policies. | 以及他的一些经济政策。 |
| 153 | I didn't see them in the same light | 我没在同一个光线下看到他们 |
| 154 | as sort of traditional commentators in Europe would do. | 就像欧洲的传统评论家一样 |
| 155 | I also think that some of his policies | 我也觉得他的一些政策 |
| 156 | have actually worked better than people predicted, | 其实比人们预测的要好 |
| 157 | like his tariffs. | 像他的关税。 |
| 158 | They certainly raised a lot of money | 他们肯定筹了很多钱 |
| 159 | and they didn't produce the kind of inflation | 他们没有产生那种通货膨胀 |
| 160 | that people predicted. | 人们预言。 |
| 161 | So I'm not really dissing him here | 所以,我不是真的 迷惑他在这里 |
| 162 | or dissing his administration. | 或破坏他的管理。 |
| 163 | The issue is very much that, | 问题是, |
| 164 | can the US maintain this level of growth? | 美国能否保持这种增长水平? |
| 165 | If they can, if they can grow at 3% every year, | 如果他们能,如果他们能以每年3%的速度增长, |
| 166 | I think it will probably be all right. | 我觉得可能没事 |
| 167 | But we have also an issue in the tech sector. | 但我们也有技术部门的问题。 |
| 168 | If there is a bubble, | 如果有气泡的话 |
| 169 | if the AI investments that are currently being made | 如果目前进行的人工智能投资 |
| 170 | and that are competing, | 那是互相竞争的, |
| 171 | the bond issuance of AI companies | AI公司的债券发行 |
| 172 | are competing with the bond issuance | 与发行债券竞争 |
| 173 | of the US administration. | 美国政府。 |
| 174 | Now, if some of these investments go bad, | 现在,如果这些投资有问题 |
| 175 | and I'm sure some will, | 我敢肯定,一些意愿, |
| 176 | then we might be ending up | 那我们就完了 |
| 177 | in a sort of combined public-private sector debt crisis. | 在公私部门债务危机中。 |
| 178 | And should this result in the US recession, | 如果这导致美国衰退, |
| 179 | and the Fed will be prevented from supporting the economy | 美联储将无法支持经济 |
| 180 | because of high inflation, | 由于高通胀, |
| 181 | we might well be in a situation | 我们很可能处于某种状况 |
| 182 | where interest rates rise fairly dramatically. | 利率大幅上升。 |
| 183 | And it's like with all debt crisis, | 就像所有债务危机一样 |
| 184 | they follow the old Hemingway format | 他们按照海明威的格式 |
| 185 | of gradually then suddenly. | 渐渐地, |
| 186 | That's the case here. | 就是这样 |
| 187 | And there's an actual sort of economic | 还有一种实际的经济 |
| 188 | or even mathematical reason for that. | 甚至是数学原因 |
| 189 | It is the fact that debt levels raise relatively slowly, | 事实上,债务水平上升相对缓慢, |
| 190 | even with high deficits. | 即使有很高的赤字。 |
| 191 | But once the interest rates, | 但一旦利率, |
| 192 | once the market responds to this, | 一旦市场对此作出反应, |
| 193 | then this creates a toxic dynamics | 这样就会产生一种毒性动力 |
| 194 | between interest rates, debt levels, deficits, | 利率、债务水平、赤字、 |
| 195 | and you can easily end up, like Greece did, | 你可以轻易结束 像希腊那样 |
| 196 | end up starting with 100% debt to GDP, | 最终从100%的债务到GDP, |
| 197 | it was a bit more, | 有点多 |
| 198 | ending up at 200 in no time. | 很快就到了200岁 |
| 199 | I remember the early austerity programs in Greece | 我记得希腊早期的紧缩计划 |
| 200 | actually drove up the debt level | 债务水平上升了 |
| 201 | because people completely misjudged | 因为人们完全误判 |
| 202 | the Europeans that kind of forced Greece into this, | 那些欧洲人强迫希腊这么做, |
| 203 | completely misjudged the economic dynamics of this. | 完全错误地判断了经济动态。 |
| 204 | And you could see similar things happening | 你可以看到类似的事情发生 |
| 205 | in the United States. | 在美国。 |
| 206 | It's genuinely difficult for a country | 一个国家真的很难 |
| 207 | to be in this situation, | 面对这种情况, |
| 208 | to extricate themselves through domestic policy changes. | 通过国内政策改革使自己摆脱困境。 |
| 209 | So default is always an option. | 所以默认总是一个选项。 |
| 210 | It was an option in Greece. | 这是希腊的一个选择。 |
| 211 | It's going to be an option in the United States | 这将是一个选择在美国 |
| 212 | should they come into this scenario. | 他们应该加入这个圈套 |
| 213 | This is not an outright default on bondholders. | 这不是债券持有人完全违约。 |
| 214 | It could take different, different, different ways. | 它可能采取不同,不同,不同的方式。 |
| 215 | One could, I've been hearing in France, | 可以,我在法国听说了 |
| 216 | Jean-Luc Mélenchon's party, | 让-吕克·梅伦森的派对, |
| 217 | the party of the far left in France, | 远在法国的政党, |
| 218 | they're now openly discussing turning the French bonds | 他们现在公开讨论 转换法国债券 |
| 219 | at the Bank of France and the ECB | 法国银行和欧洲中央银行 |
| 220 | into zero-coupon perpetuals. | 变成零圈的永恒 |
| 221 | That sounds like an interesting technical thing, | 这听起来像 一个有趣的技术事情, |
| 222 | but all it means is a default. | 但它意味着默认。 |
| 223 | Basically, the bond will never be repaid | 基本上,保证金是不会还的 |
| 224 | and it never pays any interest. | 它从不支付任何利息。 |
| 225 | That's basically the same thing as like, | 基本上就是一样 |
| 226 | you no longer have it. | 你不再拥有它。 |
| 227 | This is the kind of debate that we're now starting to get. | 这就是我们现在开始的争论。 |
| 228 | This is, I don't think Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 这是,我不认为 让-吕克·梅伦森 |
| 229 | will be the next president of France, | 将成为法国的下一任总统, |
| 230 | but he is in there with a chance. | 但是他有机会在里面 |
| 231 | There is certainly a scenario in which he might be, | 肯定有一个情景 他可能会, |
| 232 | he might be a second round candidate. | 他可能是第二轮候选人 |
| 233 | And it's not just some people on the fringes. | 而且不只是一些边缘的人。 |
| 234 | These are main, I would call him a mainstream politician. | 这些是主要的,我称他为主流政治家。 |
| 235 | He's certainly polling higher than the vast majority | 他的投票率肯定比大多数人都高 |
| 236 | of the centrist candidates in France. | 法国的中间派候选人。 |
| 237 | So yeah, we should take this seriously | 所以,我们该认真对待 |
| 238 | and we should take Trump seriously | 我们应该认真对待川普 |
| 239 | because he is clearly not interested | 因为他显然不感兴趣 |
| 240 | in balancing the budget. | 平衡预算。 |
| 241 | That was never going to happen. | 这永远不会发生。 |
| 242 | The US private sector is going into an investment spree | 美国民营部门正在投入投资 |
| 243 | that is unprecedented and that relies | 这是前所未有的,并且依赖 |
| 244 | on extremely optimistic assumptions about the economy. | 对经济极为乐观的假设。 |
| 245 | And I'm optimistic about AI. | 我对AI很乐观 |
| 246 | I'm not one of these European pessimists | 我不是那些欧洲悲观主义者 |
| 247 | who always think, see the problems | 谁总是想,看问题 |
| 248 | but never see the opportunities. | 但永远看不到机会 |
| 249 | I think AI is going to be a sort of a life | 我觉得AI会是种生活 |
| 250 | and society changing event. | 社会变迁 |
| 251 | That doesn't mean that the investments we're making today | 这并不意味着我们今天的投资 |
| 252 | are all sensible. | 这很明智 |
| 253 | It's a bit like the dot-com bubble. | 有点像点-com泡沫. |
| 254 | Dot -com不是一个泡沫, | |
| 255 | but a lot of the investments people made at the time | 但很多投资的人在当时 |
| 256 | were a bubble. | 是个泡泡 |
| 257 | AI may well follow the same pattern, | 大赦国际很可能遵循同样的模式, |
| 258 | that it will be a successful technology in the long run | 从长远来看,这将是一项成功的技术 |
| 259 | but not in the way people envisage it today | 但不是今天人们想象的那样 |
| 260 | and that a lot of the investments people are making | 很多人在投资 |
| 261 | will not come good. | 不会有好的。 |
| 262 | And the same, if this private sector crisis | 同样,如果这个私营部门的危机 |
| 263 | and the public sector debt crisis come together, | 和公共部门债务危机汇聚一堂, |
| 264 | because that crisis of a state is the private | 因为国家危机是私人的 |
| 265 | and the public sector taking together | 公共部门的共同努力 |
| 266 | because ultimately the government is responsible | 因为最终政府有责任 |
| 267 | for the debt of the nation, | 为了国家的债务, |
| 268 | not just of the public sector of the nation. | 不仅仅是国家的公共部门 |
| 269 | If both come together, | 如果两者合在一起, |
| 270 | we could see a serious turmoil in the financial markets | 我们可以看到金融市场的严重动荡 |
| 271 | to the extent that the dollar may no longer be | 在美元可能不再存在的情况下 |
| 272 | the global anchor currency that we've known it to be. | 我们所知道的全球锚值货币 |
| 273 | And this is now, I think a scenario | 而现在,我认为一个情景 |
| 274 | that's no longer outlandishly small probability | 这已经不是小概率了 |
| 275 | but it is a mainstream scenario for me. | 但对我来说,这是一个主流的情景。 |
| 276 | I'm not saying the most probable scenario | 我不是说最有可能的情况 |
| 277 | but I think it is a scenario | 但我觉得这是场景 |
| 278 | that we should take sufficiently seriously. | 我们应当充分认真对待。 |
| 279 | When you were discussing the possibility | 当你在讨论可能性时 |
| 280 | of government defaulting on its people, | 即政府违抗人民, |
| 281 | given that, of course, here in Greece, | 当然,在希腊 |
| 282 | in the heights of our debt crisis, | 在我们债务危机的高潮中, |
| 283 | this default did take place, | 这个默认发生, |
| 284 | you reminded me of something that happened | 你让我想起了发生的事情 |
| 285 | when I was Minister of Finance during that crisis. | 那次危机期间我担任财政部长 |
| 286 | Klaus Regling, a gentleman who was heading | 克劳斯・雷林,一个绅士 谁去 |
| 287 | the European Sustainability Mechanism, | 欧洲可持续性机制, |
| 288 | he said at some point to me, | 他说,在某个时候,我, |
| 289 | you have to make a payment | 你必须要付钱 |
| 290 | to the International Monetary Fund, Giannis, tomorrow. | 明天去国际货币基金组织,吉安尼斯 |
| 291 | The thing to do is default on your pensioners, | 要做的是拖欠你的退休金 |
| 292 | cancel all pensions for six months. | 取消所有六个月的养老金。 |
| 293 | So default when you are in a debt crisis is happening. | 所以,当你处于债务危机时,违约正在发生。 |
| 294 | The question is, who is going to pay the price of the default? | 问题是,谁要支付违约的代价? |
| 295 | Will it be the lenders? | 会是贷款人吗? |
| 296 | Will it be the public? | 会是大众么. |
| 297 | Will it be the pensioners? | 会是养老金领取者吗? |
| 298 | Will it be the foreigners? | 是外国人吗? |
| 299 | Indeed, in 2011, 2012, | 事实上,2011年、2012年, |
| 300 | Greece had the greatest default in human history. | 希腊是人类历史上最严重的违约国。 |
| 301 | A hundred billion euros was written off. | 1000亿欧元被注销. |
| 302 | But, of course, the bankers lost nothing | 当然,银行家一无所获 |
| 303 | because they were compensated, | 因为他们是受报酬的, |
| 304 | overcompensated for whatever losses they made. | 他们的损失都过重赔偿 |
| 305 | But, you know, small bondholders | 但是,你知道,小债券持有人 |
| 306 | of the Greek state were wiped out completely. | 希腊国家被彻底消灭。 |
| 307 | Our pension funds were wiped out. | 我们的养老基金被消灭了 |
| 308 | Anyway, I just want to do... | 总之 我只想... |
| 309 | I couldn't prevent myself from making this jab. | 我不能阻止自己做这个刺拳。 |
| 310 | In response to your reminder, apt reminder, | 以记念和记念发誓, |
| 311 | that when the debt is unpayable, | 当债务无法偿还的时候, |
| 312 | somebody suffers a default. | 有人违约了 |
| 313 | But the question is who? | 但问题是谁? |
| 314 | And the answer to that question is always political. | 这个问题的答案总是政治性的。 |
| 315 | It's never economics, not macroeconomics, not scientific. | 它从来不是经济学,也不是宏观经济学,也不是科学学. |
| 316 | The people who suffer from the default, | 受违约之害的民众, |
| 317 | which is inevitable, are the weakest links. | 这是不可避免的,是最薄弱的环节。 |
| 318 | The people with the least political power. | 政治权力最小的人. |
| 319 | Now, when it comes to your worries, | 现在,当你的担心, |
| 320 | the worries that were spearheaded by the fact | 由事实引领的担忧 |
| 321 | that 30-year bonds in the United States rose above 5%. | 美国的30年债券增长了5%以上。 |
| 322 | There was this spike. | 有个钉子 |
| 323 | Now, when we talk about the United States, | 现在,当我们谈论美国, |
| 324 | we have to make sure that we talk specifically | 我们一定要确保我们谈谈 |
| 325 | about the United States. | 关于美国。 |
| 326 | Because what applies to the United States | 因为对美国适用 |
| 327 | doesn't apply to other countries. | 不适用于其他国家。 |
| 328 | So, you know, the United Kingdom, | 所以,你知道,英国, |
| 329 | it may be also privileged enough | 可能也有足够的特权 |
| 330 | to be printing the currency in which it borrows. | 用来打印其借入的货币。 |
| 331 | But it doesn't have the privileges | 但是它没有特权 |
| 332 | that come with the issuer of the world reserve currency. | 和世界储备货币的发行商一起来的 |
| 333 | So the question is, are these American economists | 所以问题是 这些美国经济学家 |
| 334 | that always remind you that, | 那总是提醒你, |
| 335 | oh, we have the exorbitant privilege | 哦,我们有很高的特权 |
| 336 | of the reserve currency, | 储备货币, |
| 337 | so don't worry about our debt. | 所以别担心我们的债务 |
| 338 | Are they right or are they wrong? | 他们是对还是错? |
| 339 | Is it possible? | 有可能吗? |
| 340 | Essentially, the question is, | 问题是, |
| 341 | is the exorbitant privilege under threat? | 贵重的特权是否受到威胁? |
| 342 | As long as it isn't, then they're right. | 只要它不是,那么他们是正确的。 |
| 343 | But just because they have had the exorbitant privilege | 但只是因为他们拥有了高贵的特权 |
| 344 | all these years doesn't mean | 这么多年 并不意味着 |
| 345 | they will continue to have it tomorrow. | 他们明天会继续拥有它。 |
| 346 | The problem of empiricism. | 模范主义的问题. |
| 347 | You remember, of course, the allegory | 你记得,当然,寓言 |
| 348 | where the chicken always assumes | 鸡总是假设 |
| 349 | that it will live forever | 它将永生 |
| 350 | because the farmer keeps feeding it | 因为农民一直在喂它 |
| 351 | until one day the farmer chops its head off. | 直到有一天农民砍掉头 |
| 352 | So, you know, is the exorbitant privilege's head | 所以,你知道,是高贵的特权的头 |
| 353 | going to be chopped off or not? | 会不会被砍掉? |
| 354 | Well, I don't think it's got anything to do really | 嗯,我不认为它有什么 做真的 |
| 355 | with interest rates, interest rate policies | 利率政策 |
| 356 | by the Fed or, you know, what Scott Besant is doing. | 或者,你知道,斯科特·贝桑特在做什么。 |
| 357 | By the way, I was amazed by the article | 对了,我对这篇文章很惊讶 |
| 358 | he wrote in the Financial Times | 他在"金融时报"上写道 |
| 359 | in which he is threatening Iran | 他威胁伊朗 |
| 360 | with an economic D-Day. | 经济日。 |
| 361 | It just goes to show that Scott Besant | 它只是显示,斯科特贝桑特 |
| 362 | is far lesser of a Treasury Secretary | 比财政部长要小得多 |
| 363 | than I thought. | 比我想的还要多 |
| 364 | He seems to be in a state of panic now. | 他现在似乎处于恐慌状态. |
| 365 | But anyway, the question about | 但总之,关于 |
| 366 | the exorbitant privilege of the dollar | 美元巨额特权 |
| 367 | turns on another question | 打开另一个问题 |
| 368 | which is more profound, deeper and more meaningful. | 更深刻、更深入、更有意义。 |
| 369 | Is the United States economy | 美国经济 |
| 370 | going to continue to be able | 能够继续 |
| 371 | to recycle other people's surpluses? | 回收别人的剩余? |
| 372 | Because, you know, the reason why | 因为,你知道,原因 |
| 373 | American hegemony has been growing | 美国霸权不断增长 |
| 374 | since 1971, the end of Bretton Woods, | 自1971年以来,布雷顿森林的终结, |
| 375 | in spite of the fact that it has been, | 尽管它一直以来, |
| 376 | the United States has been sinking | 美国一直在沉没 |
| 377 | deeper and deeper into red ink, | 越来越深的红色墨水, |
| 378 | both when it comes to its current account | 在涉及经常账户时 |
| 379 | and its budget accounts. | 及其预算账户。 |
| 380 | The reason why it has been | 为何如此 |
| 381 | increasing its hegemony analogously | 同样的,增加其霸权 |
| 382 | in proportion to how much in debt it went | 债务金额的比例 |
| 383 | and in deficit it went, | 在亏损中, |
| 384 | the reason is because it was | 原因是因为... |
| 385 | recycling other people's money, | 回收别人的钱, |
| 386 | other people's profits. | 其他人的利润。 |
| 387 | So, you know, I keep saying this | 所以,你知道,我一直说 |
| 388 | but it's important to remind this, | 但重要的是提醒这一点, |
| 389 | you know, every time Mercedes Benz | 每次梅赛德斯奔驰 |
| 390 | was sold to the United States | 卖给美国 |
| 391 | or aluminum was sold by some | 或铝被某些人卖掉 |
| 392 | factory in Shenzhen to California, | 深圳至加利福尼亚的工厂 |
| 393 | a pile of dollars ended up | 一大笔钱最后 |
| 394 | in German or Chinese accounts | 德国或中国的账户 |
| 395 | and then it migrated back to Wall Street | 然后它又搬回华尔街 |
| 396 | to be recycled in American government bonds, | 在美国政府债券中回收, |
| 397 | some equities and real estate. | 一些股票和房地产。 |
| 398 | And this is the manner in which | 这就是我们... |
| 399 | other people's profits and surpluses | 其他人的利润和盈余 |
| 400 | have maintained and financed | 维持和资助 |
| 401 | American hegemony. | 美国霸权. |
| 402 | Is this recycling scheme, | 这是回收计划吗? |
| 403 | which is pretty remarkable, | 这是相当了不起的, |
| 404 | it's never happened in human history before, | 这在人类历史上从未发生过 |
| 405 | that's not how the British Empire functions, | 大英帝国不是这么运作的 |
| 406 | not how the Dutch Empire function, | 不是荷兰帝国如何运作, |
| 407 | it's only how the American Empire has functioned. | 美帝国就是这样运作的 |
| 408 | Is this under threat? | 这是受到威胁的吗? |
| 409 | Will this break? | 这能打破吗? |
| 410 | If this breaks, | 如果这断了 |
| 411 | then you have every reason to be fearful. | 那你就有理由害怕了 |
| 412 | I'm also not saying that | 我也没那么说 |
| 413 | the US is about to default. | 美国即将违约。 |
| 414 | It's not my prediction. | 这不是我的预言。 |
| 415 | I am, however, saying that even | 不过,我是说,甚至 |
| 416 | the issuer of the global reserve currency | 全球储备货币发行人 |
| 417 | and the country that enjoys | 享受经济、社会和文化权利的国家 |
| 418 | the exorbitant privilege | 高贵的特权 |
| 419 | that the US undoubtedly does | 美国无疑会 |
| 420 | is not immune from financial crises | 无法免于金融危机 |
| 421 | and it's not immune from financial crises | 也不能免于金融危机 |
| 422 | of a sort that might be very difficult | 那种可能很困难的 |
| 423 | to fix with a classic bailout mechanism. | 以典型的救市机制进行修复。 |
| 424 | This is a debt crisis of that proportion | 这是如此比例的债务危机 |
| 425 | if it's based on a loss of trust by investors. | 如果它是基于投资者失去信任。 |
| 426 | It's not going to be fixed by a central bank | 中央银行不会修好的 |
| 427 | that issues money and monetizes the debt. | 发行钱和货币化的债务。 |
| 428 | We're heading into a broader-based crisis | 我们正面临一场更广泛的危机 |
| 429 | of the global financial system as a whole. | 整个全球金融体系。 |
| 430 | It is indeed a distributional issue | 这的确是一个分配问题 |
| 431 | of who gets to pay for this crisis. | 谁能为这场危机付出代价。 |
| 432 | And I would agree for you, | 我同意你的意见 |
| 433 | and this is the people | 这就是人民 |
| 434 | with the least amount of representation, | 代表人数最少, |
| 435 | and this is the poorest | 这是最贫穷的, |
| 436 | and those that are least organized. | 和那些组织最差的人。 |
| 437 | I think the bigger question is, | 我认为更大的问题是, |
| 438 | if the global financial system, | 如果全球金融系统, |
| 439 | as we know it, | 正如我们所知, |
| 440 | which was the backdrop | 这是背景 |
| 441 | to our age of globalization, | 我们的全球化时代, |
| 442 | it was an age of financial globalization. | 这是一个金融全球化的时代。 |
| 443 | This wasn't just a feature of it. | 这不仅仅是它的一个特点。 |
| 444 | It was a central pillar of it. | 这是它的核心支柱。 |
| 445 | If our global financial sector | 如果我们的全球金融部门 |
| 446 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}我无法忍受 | |
| 447 | if it suffers a collapse, | 如果它崩溃了 |
| 448 | that will be undoubtedly more serious | 这无疑会更严重 |
| 449 | than the one after the Lehman Brothers collapse. | 而不是雷曼兄弟倒闭后的那个 |
| 450 | That will be a singularity in our modern history. | 这将是我们现代历史上的一个奇特之处。 |
| 451 | I think we'll end our discussion | 我想我们讨论完了 |
| 452 | on the United States on this point. | 在美国,在这一点上。 |
| 453 | We'll be back after the break. | 休息后再回来 |
| 454 | Don't go away. | 别走 |
| 455 | 欢迎回到Econoclast队 | |
| 456 | In the second part of our series today, | 我们今天系列的第二部分 |
| 457 | Yiannis wants to talk about China, spending, and AI. | 延尼斯想谈中国,支出,和AI. |
| 458 | 交给你了,Yiannis。 | |
| 459 | Well, thank you, Wolfgang. | 谢谢你,沃尔夫冈 |
| 460 | The orthodoxy concerning China, | 关于中国的正统思想, |
| 461 | at least in the West, | 至少在西方, |
| 462 | but not just in the West, | 但不只是在西方, |
| 463 | is that to escape stagnation | 是为了避免停滞 |
| 464 | and to stop China exporting deflation | 停止中国出口通货紧缩 |
| 465 | to the rest of the world | 给世界其他地方的 |
| 466 | through its huge net exports, | 通过其巨大的净出口, |
| 467 | the going orthodoxy is that the Chinese | 正统是中国人 |
| 468 | need to go on a spending spree, | 需要继续花大钱, |
| 469 | both the private sector and the public sector. | 私营部门和公共部门。 |
| 470 | Now, I shall be arguing | 现在,我要争论 |
| 471 | that this will not solve China's economic problems. | 这解决不了中国的经济问题。 |
| 472 | At least it won't do so sustainably | 至少它不会持续这样做 |
| 473 | or prevent China from impinging on other countries. | 或防止中国侵扰他国. |
| 474 | But I think there is a radical solution to the problem, | 但我认为这个问题有一个彻底的解决办法, |
| 475 | which is not part of the orthodoxy or the mainstream, | 它不是正统或主流的一部分, |
| 476 | and that depends on the smart use of Chinese AI, | 这取决于中国人工智能的智能使用, |
| 477 | specifically Chinese AI, | 特别是中国的AI, |
| 478 | because the Chinese do AI very differently | 因为中国人做AI的方式很不一样 |
| 479 | to what the Americans do, | 美国人做什么, |
| 480 | and certainly more differently | 当然更不同 |
| 481 | to what the Europeans do, | 对于欧洲人的行为, |
| 482 | if the Europeans are doing anything with AI | 如果欧洲人跟AI有什么瓜葛 |
| 483 | that is worth mentioning. | 这值得一提。 |
| 484 | The United Kingdom, the European Union, | 联合王国、欧洲联盟、 |
| 485 | and the United States, | 和美国, |
| 486 | the advanced North Atlantic economies | A. 对北大西洋先进经济体的影响 |
| 487 | have fallen into a rent trap a long time ago. | 很久以前就陷入了租房陷阱了 |
| 488 | And the question is, can China escape it? | 问题是,中国能逃脱吗? |
| 489 | What do I mean by a rent trap? | 什么叫房租陷阱? |
| 490 | A rent trap is what happens, | 租房陷阱是会发生什么, |
| 491 | the thing you fall into, | 你掉进去的东西, |
| 492 | when privateers decide how and where | 当私人决定如何和在哪里 |
| 493 | to channel accumulated wealth. | 用来引导积累的财富。 |
| 494 | Because as competition in the productive | 因为作为生产的竞争 |
| 495 | industrial sectors drives profit rates down, | 工业部门推动利润率下降, |
| 496 | privateers buy assets, | 私人购买资产, |
| 497 | rent yielding property, in other words. | 换句话说,是租房 |
| 498 | And the more wealth chases rents, | 而财富追逐租金越多, |
| 499 | the higher the asset prices, | 资产价格越高, |
| 500 | and the faster the exodus from industry | 并且越快地离开工业 |
| 501 | into the rentier sector. | 进入租房部门。 |
| 502 | Now, unsurprisingly, rent traps hollow out industry | 现在,不奇怪, 租金陷阱 空洞的行业 |
| 503 | and turn proud industrial powerhouses | 变成骄傲的工业家, |
| 504 | like the North of England, | 就像英格兰北部一样 |
| 505 | once upon a time, | 曾经, |
| 506 | the American Midwest, | 美国中西部, |
| 507 | they turn them into wastelands | 他们把他们变成荒地 |
| 508 | with momentous political repercussions | 具有重大政治影响 |
| 509 | of the sort that we are immersed in, | 那种我们沉浸在其中, |
| 510 | and we live through across the West. | 我们穿过西方 |
| 511 | Now, China almost fell into this rent trap | 现在,中国几乎陷入这个租界 |
| 512 | recently with the real estate bubble, | 最近房地产泡沫, |
| 513 | who can forget Evergrande, | 他能忘记永孙, |
| 514 | that huge real estate company that went bust. | 那个大房地产公司破产了 |
| 515 | If I'm right, its managing director | 如果我是对的,它的总经理 |
| 516 | or chairman was imprisoned recently. | 或者主席最近被关进监狱 |
| 517 | The Chinese solution to this rent trap, | 中国人解决这个租借陷阱的办法 |
| 518 | which seems to have worked quite well | 这似乎很有效 |
| 519 | in the shofan at least, | 至少在绍凡, |
| 520 | is the fact that instead of leaving it | 而不是离开它 |
| 521 | to the private sector | 私营部门 |
| 522 | to channel investments, | 引导投资, |
| 523 | the state has played an activist role, | 国家扮演了积极的角色, |
| 524 | has directed investment | 投资方向 |
| 525 | with great success in many cases. | 在许多情况下取得了巨大的成功。 |
| 526 | Ultra-fast railways are crisscrossing China. | 超快铁路贯通中国. |
| 527 | Critical minerals have been cornered | 关键矿物被围住 |
| 528 | the whole market globally. | 整个市场 |
| 529 | Green energy, I mean, | 绿色能源,我的意思是, |
| 530 | batteries, electric vehicles, | 电池、电动车辆、 |
| 531 | microchips now taking advantage | 微芯片现在占便宜 |
| 532 | of Joe Biden's ill-conceived ban | 乔・拜登的不良禁令 |
| 533 | of exports of microchips to China. | 向中国出口微芯片。 |
| 534 | More recently, of course, AI. | 最近,当然,AI。 |
| 535 | Now, this has helped China | 现在,这帮助了中国 |
| 536 | avoid or skirt or steer clear, | 或退避,或退避,或退避, |
| 537 | at least temporarily, | 至少暂时的 |
| 538 | from the rent trap that I mentioned before. | 从我之前提到的租金陷阱。 |
| 539 | But there is a side effect | 但有一个副作用 |
| 540 | to this success story, | 对于这个成功的故事, |
| 541 | and it's the huge accumulated savings of China. | 这是中国积累下来的巨额储蓄 |
| 542 | There are 170, more than 170 trillion won, | 有170万亿韩元 |
| 543 | that's around 25 trillion dollars | 大约25万亿美元 |
| 544 | of accumulated savings. | 累积节余。 |
| 545 | Now, if these are channeled | 现在,如果这些有渠道 |
| 546 | into asset purchases, | 用于购买资产, |
| 547 | you have a rent trap. | 你有一个租金陷阱。 |
| 548 | If they're invested abroad, | 如果他们投资到国外 |
| 549 | you have a kind of imperialism. | 你有一种帝国主义。 |
| 550 | And you also have the problem | 你也有一个问题 |
| 551 | that the German investors faced, | 德国投资者面对的, |
| 552 | who forgets the Eurozone crisis. | 他们忘记了欧元区危机。 |
| 553 | And what is the problem that they faced? | 他们面临的问题是什么? |
| 554 | Well, they realized that they were entrusting | 嗯,他们意识到 他们委托 |
| 555 | their savings to foreigners. | 他们的储蓄给外国人。 |
| 556 | Now, why am I saying that Chinese AI | 为什么我要说中国的AI |
| 557 | is offering the opportunity, | 正在提供这个机会, |
| 558 | it doesn't mean that the Chinese government | 这并不意味着中国政府 |
| 559 | or economy is going to take advantage | 或经济会占上风 |
| 560 | of this opportunity. | 利用这一机会。 |
| 561 | What I'm saying is that it is offering | 我想说的是,它提供 |
| 562 | the opportunity of escaping the rent trap | 逃离租金陷阱的机会 |
| 563 | and actually having a historic impact | 具有历史影响 |
| 564 | on the evolution of the political economy, | 关于政治经济的演变, |
| 565 | not just of China, but of the world. | 不仅是中国,也是世界 |
| 566 | Now, the point I'm going to make is that | 现在,我要说的是, |
| 567 | Chinese AI is not just a labor-saving technology. | 中国AI不仅仅是一种节省劳动力的技术. |
| 568 | It is that, but it is a lot more than that. | 就是这样,但不止于此。 |
| 569 | Unlike in the United States, Silicon Valley, | 不像美国 硅谷 |
| 570 | which obsesses over building AGI, | 它沉迷于建筑AGI, |
| 571 | all-purpose general intelligence machines | 通用一般情报机 |
| 572 | that essentially offer us services | 基本上为我们提供服务 |
| 573 | like creating lots of slop, | 譬如创造许多 s, |
| 574 | bad poetry, plagiarizing stuff and so on. | 不良诗歌,盗用东西等等. |
| 575 | A kind of process which enriches | 一种可以丰富 |
| 576 | a tiny rentier class made of big tech, | 一个小型的租借阶级 由大科技, |
| 577 | technology. | 技术。 |
| 578 | In China, the focus of AI, | 在中国,AI的焦点, |
| 579 | of the technological AI revolution | 技术知识革命 |
| 580 | is actual production of stuff. | 是实际生产的东西。 |
| 581 | AI is incorporated into machines | 人工智能被纳入机器 |
| 582 | that build stuff. | 那东西。 |
| 583 | And that is leading to what can | 这导致什么 |
| 584 | usefully be described as a productivity singularity. | 可以说是一种生产力的奇特之处。 |
| 585 | And by productivity singularity, | 而生产力奇异, |
| 586 | I don't mean just labor-saving automation | 我不是说只是节省劳力的自动化 |
| 587 | that replaces living labor. | 代替活的劳动力。 |
| 588 | The important point to notice here is that, | 这里需要注意的是, |
| 589 | at least from the political economy tradition | 至少从政治经济传统来看 |
| 590 | where I come from, Volkang, | 我来自哪里,沃尔康 |
| 591 | value is the result of expending | 值是支出的结果 |
| 592 | socially necessary labor to build something. | 社会必需的劳动来制造一些东西。 |
| 593 | Now, a robot does not create value. | 现在,机器人不创造价值。 |
| 594 | It transfers the value embedded in it | 它转移嵌入的值 |
| 595 | by the workers who build it. | 以建造者发誓, |
| 596 | Similarly with textile machinery. | 与纺织机械类似。 |
| 597 | The point about AI replacing labor | 关于人工智能替代劳动力的问题 |
| 598 | is that it does so not in a localized manner, | 因为它不是以本地化的方式这样做的, |
| 599 | but it does replace labor | 但它确实取代了劳动 |
| 600 | across the entire supply chain, | 在整个供应链中, |
| 601 | including increasingly design | 包括日益完善的设计 |
| 602 | and the theoretical aspects | 理论方面 |
| 603 | of the production process. | 生产过程。 |
| 604 | So this is where Chinese AI | 这就是中国的人工智能 |
| 605 | is proving to be quite revolutionary. | 证明是相当革命性的。 |
| 606 | It's not simply giving a competitive advantage | 这不是简单地赋予竞争优势 |
| 607 | to the companies that use it. | 给使用它的公司。 |
| 608 | It offers a possibility of the material basis | 它提供了物质基础的可能性 |
| 609 | for the abolition of value itself. | 价值的废除本身。 |
| 610 | Because if you think about it, | 因为如果你考虑一下 |
| 611 | if dark factories, | 如果黑暗工厂, |
| 612 | the way that they produce CAETL batteries | 他们生产CAETL电池的方式 |
| 613 | or the way that they produce electric vehicles | 或生产电动车辆的方式 |
| 614 | without using almost any labor, | 没有使用几乎任何劳动力, |
| 615 | in the end, you're going to have a lot of output | 最后,你会有很多输出 |
| 616 | that has very little economic value | 经济价值很小 |
| 617 | to have a lot of utility, | 有很多用处, |
| 618 | but no economic value | 但没有经济价值 |
| 619 | because the labor costs | 因为劳动力成本 |
| 620 | will be absolutely infinitesimal. | 绝对是无限的。 |
| 621 | Now, the big question is, | 现在,最大的问题是, |
| 622 | can Chinese society organize itself | 中国社会可以组织自己 |
| 623 | so that the benefits, | 以便他们得享福利, |
| 624 | this utility that can be produced | 可生成的此工具 |
| 625 | with no value be shared? | 没有共享值 ? |
| 626 | Because if it can, | 因为如果可以的话 |
| 627 | then they don't need a consumer expenditure spree | 那他们就不需要消费支出了 |
| 628 | in order to stabilize aggregate demand | 稳定总需求 |
| 629 | in order to stabilize society. | 为了稳定社会。 |
| 630 | Now, if they manage to pull this one off, | 现在,如果他们成功完成了这个, |
| 631 | to use the revolutionary character of Chinese AI, | 用中国AI的革命性, |
| 632 | which is also open source, | 也是开源 |
| 633 | so it means that it can be adapted | 也就是说它可以被改造 |
| 634 | by small businesses and medium-sized businesses | 小企业和中小型企业 |
| 635 | at almost negligible cost | 费用几乎可以忽略不计 |
| 636 | in order to assist in the maximization of output | 协助最大限度地实现产出 |
| 637 | and the minimization of prices. | 和尽量减少价格。 |
| 638 | If they can make sure that the benefits of this AI, | 如果他们能确保这个AI的好处, |
| 639 | unlike in the United States, | 不像美国 |
| 640 | where the benefits are going to fall squarely | 好处会完全落下 |
| 641 | in the bank accounts | 银行账户 |
| 642 | of a tiny, tiny number of tech lords, | 少数科技大师, |
| 643 | if those are spread, | 如果那些是散漫的, |
| 644 | the benefits in China | 中国的利益 |
| 645 | on the basis of the democratization, | 在民主化的基础上, |
| 646 | if you want, | 如果你想的话 |
| 647 | of the returns to AI revolutionary technologies, | 对AI革命技术的回报, |
| 648 | then China could be writing a new chapter in history. | 那时中国可能正在写历史的新篇章. |
| 649 | I'm not saying it will. | 我不是说它会。 |
| 650 | What I'm saying is that they have an opportunity. | 我想说的是他们有机会 |
| 651 | And that opportunity will require the Chinese state | 这个机会需要中国国家 |
| 652 | moving from simply directing investment | 从简单的投资方向转移 |
| 653 | into managing to ensure | 管理以确保 |
| 654 | that the benefits from this production-focused AI tech | 这种以生产为重点的AI技术的好处 |
| 655 | are spread across the population. | 人口分布在各地。 |
| 656 | I'm moderately optimistic | 我有点乐观 |
| 657 | that they might actually achieve this | 他们可能真正实现这一点 |
| 658 | because China has a different strategy on AI | 因为中国对AI有不同的策略 |
| 659 | than the United States, | 而不是美国, |
| 660 | and one that worries the United States, | 一个令美国担忧的, |
| 661 | and which is the open source strategy. | 这是开源策略。 |
| 662 | They also exist in the United States. | 它们也存在于美国. |
| 663 | There are open source companies that compete, | 有公开源码公司竞争, |
| 664 | but that's the smart way of doing this, | 但这是明智的方法, |
| 665 | rather than having closed systems. | 而不是有关闭的系统。 |
| 666 | The Europeans tried it with closed systems | 欧洲人用封闭的系统尝试过 |
| 667 | because they wanted to keep everything secret, | 因为他们想保守一切秘密 |
| 668 | and they completely failed. | 他们完全失败了 |
| 669 | When open source started for the first time, | 当开源首次启动时 |
| 670 | I myself, I have to admit, I didn't understand it. | 我自己,我不得不承认,我不明白 |
| 671 | I understood commercial models, | 我了解商业模式, |
| 672 | but when I heard that sort of operating system like Linux, | 但我听到Linux这样的操作系统 |
| 673 | they were sort of distributed on an open source basis, | 它们是在开源的基础上分发的, |
| 674 | I thought this was a fad initially | 一开始我还以为这很热闹呢 |
| 675 | because I didn't know anything about this stuff, | 因为我对这东西一无所知 |
| 676 | but it didn't make sense to me until I sort of realized | 但直到我意识到 这才有意义 |
| 677 | that this is actually very smart, | 这其实是非常聪明的, |
| 678 | because what happened here | 因为这里发生的事 |
| 679 | is that an awful lot of business opportunities | 那是很多商业机会 |
| 680 | were possible through it, | 通过它, |
| 681 | and it would actually leverage opportunities, | 它实际上会利用机会, |
| 682 | including for the founder of Linux, | 包括Linux的创始人, |
| 683 | who became sort of very much high in demand | 他们变得非常高的需求 |
| 684 | because people needed to repair it, | 因为人们需要修复它, |
| 685 | and people needed to service it, | 人们需要为它服务, |
| 686 | and people needed to develop it. | 人们需要开发它。 |
| 687 | It gave rise to much more business | 这引起了更多的生意 |
| 688 | than it would have been had it been a business, | 若不是生意的话, |
| 689 | and that's the idea of open source. | 这就是开源的想法。 |
| 690 | It's a spread. | 传之. |
| 691 | It's actually also quite democratic | 其实也是很民主的 |
| 692 | because it reduces barriers to entry. | 因为它减少了进入的障碍。 |
| 693 | I mean, we're seeing technologically, | 我的意思是,我们正在看到 技术上, |
| 694 | the Americans are very much ahead. | 美国人非常领先 |
| 695 | 毫无疑问,OpenAI和Anthropic的模型 | |
| 696 | are very, very good. | 非常,非常不错。 |
| 697 | I use them. | 我用他们。 |
| 698 | I use the OpenAI models, the latest one, | 我使用OpenAI模型,最新的一个, |
| 699 | and I'm massively impressed by the speed, | 我对速度印象深刻 |
| 700 | by also the change relative to where they were | 以及相对于其所在地的变化 |
| 701 | even like six months ago, | 甚至六个月前 |
| 702 | and there is no slowdown inside. | 内部没有减速。 |
| 703 | It's suspected that there will come a point | 疑似会出问题 |
| 704 | where it will slow down. | 在那里它会减速。 |
| 705 | That may happen at some point, | 这可能会发生在某个时候, |
| 706 | but right now we're still on something | 但是现在我们还在做一些事情 |
| 707 | that looks like an exponential curve. | 这看起来像一个指数曲线。 |
| 708 | So are the Chinese. | 中国人也是 |
| 709 | They're basically, I wouldn't say at the top, | 他们基本上,我不会说在顶部, |
| 710 | but they're closing the gap. | 但他们正在缩小缺口。 |
| 711 | They're very close, but more importantly | 他们很接近,但更重要的是 |
| 712 | is the fact that they have this distributive model. | 他们有这种分配模式 |
| 713 | When I learned about the economy, | 当我得知经济, |
| 714 | everybody's assumption was that progress | 每个人都认为进步 |
| 715 | meant we had to work less. | 意思是我们必须少干活 |
| 716 | When I grew up and had my first jobs | 当我长大 有了我的第一个工作 |
| 717 | and saw people in other jobs, | 并看到人们在其他工作, |
| 718 | certainly in the financial sector. | 当然,在金融部门。 |
| 719 | I never worked directly in the financial sector. | 我从来没有直接在金融部门工作。 |
| 720 | I was a journalist who observed it, | 我是一个记者 谁观察它, |
| 721 | but everybody in the financial sector | 但金融部门的每一个人 |
| 722 | seemed to work longer and longer hours, | 工作的时间越来越长 |
| 723 | and that seemed to counter the trend | 这似乎与趋势相反 |
| 724 | of we're getting more productive | 我们越来越有生产力 |
| 725 | and we need to work less. | 我们需要少做点工作。 |
| 726 | In finance, at least, everyone worked longer hours. | 在金融领域,至少每个人都工作时间更长。 |
| 727 | In industry, there was a trend | 在工业中,有一种趋势 |
| 728 | towards reduced working hours, | 缩短工作时间, |
| 729 | but that trend also didn't go all the way. | 但是这个趋势并没有彻底改变。 |
| 730 | And in some, the German response right now, | 有些德国人现在的反应 |
| 731 | for example, is to actually increase working hours. | 例如,实际增加工作时间。 |
| 732 | Some companies want to go back to the 40-hour | 有些公司想回到40小时 |
| 733 | week, having had the 35-hour week, | 每周35小时, |
| 734 | so they get more competitive. | 让他们更有竞争力 |
| 735 | I think this is not the way to go, | 我想这不是该走的路 |
| 736 | but the general idea of if AI brought this about, | 但一般的想法是 如果AI带来了这一点, |
| 737 | that we all work less, | 我们都工作少, |
| 738 | that would be a very good idea. | 这将是一个非常好的主意。 |
| 739 | Now, labor is not a lump. | 现在,劳动不是一团糟。 |
| 740 | There have been various lumps of labor theories. | 各种劳动理论纷纷出现. |
| 741 | You can't divide it, | 你无法分割它, |
| 742 | so we can't all work like 10 hours, | 所以我们不能都工作 像10小时, |
| 743 | and this isn't the way it will work. | 事情不是这样的 |
| 744 | But the idea that we have to work longer hours forever, | 但是,关于我们必须工作更长的时间的想法, |
| 745 | which was sort of the mantra of the globalization philosophy, | 这是一种全球化哲学的口号, |
| 746 | I never accepted this. | 我从来没有接受过这一点。 |
| 747 | And I think the idea that, as you outlined, | 我想这个想法,正如你所描述的, |
| 748 | that it will eventually be shared widely | 最终将广泛分享 |
| 749 | and it will actually produce benefits to broader... | 这会给更广泛的... |
| 750 | It's really about distribution. | 这是真正的分配。 |
| 751 | It's about how will the massive proceeds, | 这是关于 如何将大规模收益, |
| 752 | and the proceeds, I believe, will be absolutely massive. | 我相信,收益是绝对巨大的。 |
| 753 | How will it be distributed? | 如何分发? |
| 754 | Certainly, what I can say from my end | 当然,我可以从我的结尾说 |
| 755 | is that the approach to start off with open source models | 是从开源模型开始的方法 |
| 756 | seems to me the right one. | 在我看来是正确的。 |
| 757 | Well, Wolfgang, I wish I had a crystal ball. | 好吧,沃尔夫冈,我希望我有一个水晶球。 |
| 758 | I have no idea whether the Chinese will succeed in doing it. | 我不知道中国人是否会成功 |
| 759 | What I'm saying is that they have a chance of doing it, | 我想说的是 他们有机会这么做 |
| 760 | unlike the Europeans and unlike the Americans, | 不像欧洲人和美国人 |
| 761 | because of the preponderance of the power of big tech. | 因为大科技的优势 |
| 762 | We'll have to wait and see. | 须'等. |
| 763 | Maybe the next generation will find out | 也许下一代会发现 |
| 764 | and will have to find some way for informing you and me | 还要想办法通知你和我 |
| 765 | in some really high-tech way. | 在某种真正的高科技方式。 |
| 766 | So, folks, until next week, | 所以,伙计们,直到下周, |
| 767 | 不要忘记评分,喜欢, 订阅Iconoclasts。 |
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