诺贝尔奖获得者丹尼尔・卡尼曼：思考，快与慢｜谷歌讲座
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | He started in 1954, received his bachelor's in experimental psychology and mathematics | 他从1954年开始学习实验心理学和数学 |
| 0:05 | from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. | 来自耶路撒冷希伯来大学 |
| 0:09 | In 1961, he was awarded his PhD from University of California, Berkeley, right across the | 1961年,他被授予加州大学伯克利分校博士学位, |
| 0:13 | bay in experimental psychology. | 研究实验心理学 |
| 0:17 | In 1979, he and his co-author Amos Tversky published their seminal paper on prospect | 1979年,他和他的共同作者阿莫斯·特维尔斯基发表了他们关于前景的开创性论文. |
| 0:23 | theory, which started to change the way that people reframed the argument around gains, | 理论,它开始改变 人们重新定义 围绕收益的争论, |
| 0:28 | losses, and decision-making under uncertainty. | 损失和不确定情况下的决策。 |
| 0:31 | Several years later, in 2002, Professor Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize largely for the | 几年后,在2002年,Kahneman教授主要因美国人民革命运动而获得诺贝尔奖。 |
| 0:37 | work on prospect theory. | 研究前景理论。 |
| 0:39 | And Nobel Prizes, I think, are always impressive, his perhaps more so because there actually | 诺贝尔奖,我认为,总是令人印象深刻, 他也许更是这样,因为实际上, |
展开字幕全文（764 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | He started in 1954, received his bachelor's in experimental psychology and mathematics | 他从1954年开始学习实验心理学和数学 |
| 2 | from the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. | 来自耶路撒冷希伯来大学 |
| 3 | In 1961, he was awarded his PhD from University of California, Berkeley, right across the | 1961年,他被授予加州大学伯克利分校博士学位, |
| 4 | bay in experimental psychology. | 研究实验心理学 |
| 5 | In 1979, he and his co-author Amos Tversky published their seminal paper on prospect | 1979年,他和他的共同作者阿莫斯·特维尔斯基发表了他们关于前景的开创性论文. |
| 6 | theory, which started to change the way that people reframed the argument around gains, | 理论,它开始改变 人们重新定义 围绕收益的争论, |
| 7 | losses, and decision-making under uncertainty. | 损失和不确定情况下的决策。 |
| 8 | Several years later, in 2002, Professor Kahneman was awarded the Nobel Prize largely for the | 几年后,在2002年,Kahneman教授主要因美国人民革命运动而获得诺贝尔奖。 |
| 9 | work on prospect theory. | 研究前景理论。 |
| 10 | And Nobel Prizes, I think, are always impressive, his perhaps more so because there actually | 诺贝尔奖,我认为,总是令人印象深刻, 他也许更是这样,因为实际上, |
| 11 | isn't a Nobel Prize in psychology. | 不是诺贝尔心理学奖。 |
| 12 | He had to win his Nobel Prize in economics. | 他不得不获得诺贝尔经济学奖. |
| 13 | And as far as I know, I think there's only one other person, one other psychologist who | 据我所知,我认为只有一个人,另一个心理学家 |
| 14 | has won a Nobel Prize, and that's Ivan Pavlov, and he may be a physiologist, we could argue | 诺贝尔奖得主是伊万·巴甫洛夫 他或许是生理学家 |
| 15 | about that. | 关于那个。 |
| 16 | Years later, in 2007, psychologists tried to reclaim Professor Kahneman as one of our | 多年之后,2007年,心理学家试图将Kahneman教授作为我们的一员。 |
| 17 | own when the American Psychological Association awarded him the Lifetime Distinguished Contribution | 当美国心理学会授予他终身杰出贡献时 |
| 18 | Award. | 奖. |
| 19 | And today he is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International | 今天他是伍德罗·威尔逊公立国际学院的高级学者 |
| 20 | Affairs at Princeton University, and he's here to talk about his new book, Thinking | 普林斯顿大学的事务, 他在这里谈论 他的新书,思考 |
| 21 | And Google's mission, which we all know, is to take the world's information and to make | 而Google的任务,我们都知道, 是取 全世界的信息,并制作 |
| 22 | it more useful and universally accessible. | 它更有用,更普及。 |
| 23 | And all information, all knowledge is important, but I think some, again, is more important | 所有的信息,所有的知识都很重要, 但我认为,一些,再次,更重要 |
| 24 | than others because the information that he'll present today, I think, it's very personal. | 而不是其他人 因为他今天会提供的信息, 我认为,这是非常私人的。 |
| 25 | It's about each of us. | 约诸众生. |
| 26 | And if you listen carefully and really understand what he says, it's going to change the way | 如果你仔细听好并真正理解他的话,那会改变方式 |
| 27 | that you think about yourself and the world around you. | 想想你自己和周围的世界 |
| 28 | So please join me in welcoming Professor Kahneman to Google. | 所以请和我一起欢迎卡恩曼教授来到谷歌 |
| 29 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 30 | Well, I think intuition has been discussed a lot in recent years, and I'll be talking | 我觉得近些年来 直觉已经讨论了很多 我会谈谈 |
| 31 | about intuition. | 关于直觉。 |
| 32 | There are two camps in this discussion, naturally, there is the pro and the con. | 这场讨论有两个阵营,当然有利弊. |
| 33 | And of course, many people here will have read Malcolm Gladwell's Blink, which although | 当然,这里的很多人会读过马尔科姆·格拉德威尔的"闪烁",虽然 |
| 34 | it's not an unconditional defense of intuition, it certainly gave people the impression that | 这不是无条件的直觉辩护, 它当然给人一种印象, |
| 35 | sometimes we magically know things without knowing why we know them. | 有时我们神奇地知道一些东西 却不知道为什么我们知道它们 |
| 36 | Within the discipline of psychology and judgment and decision making, there is a group, and | 在心理学和判断与决策学科中,有一个团体, |
| 37 | it's headed by a very interesting figure called Gary Klein, who wrote a book that I recommend. | 由一位非常有趣的人物Gary Klein领导 他写了一本我推荐的书 |
| 38 | It's Sources of Power is the one of his books that I would recommend most warmly. | 这是权力的来源 是他的书之一 我会最热烈地推荐。 |
| 39 | And they are great believers in expert intuition. | 他们确是信道的,确是直觉的。 |
| 40 | On the other side, there are skeptics about intuition in general and including expert | 另一方面,人们对于一般的直觉和包括专家的直觉持怀疑态度。 |
| 41 | intuition. | 直觉 |
| 42 | And I have long been counted as one of the skeptics because my early work with Imus | 我早就被算作怀疑者之一了 因为我在伊睦斯的早期工作 |
| 43 | about intuitive errors and flaws and biases of intuitive thinking. | 关于直觉错误和缺陷 和偏执直觉思维。 |
| 44 | Today, you find that discussion in many places, and for example, in medicine, among the popular | 今天,你们在很多地方,例如在医学领域, 在大众中, |
| 45 | writers, there are two writers, both of whom write for the New Yorker, Gerald Grutman and | 作家,有两位作家,他们都为纽约人,杰拉尔德·格鲁特曼和 |
| 46 | Atul Gawande, and they clearly differ. | 阿图尔·加旺德,他们明显不同. |
| 47 | Atul Gawande is in favor of formal systems, very skeptical about human judgment and wanting | Atul Gawande支持正式制度, 对人类的判断非常怀疑, |
| 48 | to improve it all the time, and Gerald Grutman being in fact, although he doesn't quite | 而杰拉尔德·格鲁特曼其实是 虽然他并不完全 |
| 49 | admit it, he really likes good old-fashioned medical intuition. | 承认吧 他真的很喜欢古老的医学直觉 |
| 50 | Of course, he would like the physicians well-educated, but he doesn't like formal system. | 当然,他喜欢那些受过良好教育的医生,但他不喜欢正式的制度. |
| 51 | And the issue in medicine is the issue of what is the role of evidence-based medicine | 医学的问题是 循证医学的作用 |
| 52 | and how do you allocate functions between that and intuition. | 和如何分配函数 在它和直觉之间。 |
| 53 | The background, actually, part of the background for what I'll talk today is a strange collaboration | 其实,我今天要谈的背景部分 是一个奇怪的合作 |
| 54 | in which I engaged for about eight years with Gary Klein, whom I mentioned. | 我和Gary Klein约了八年,我提到了他。 |
| 55 | So he is the guru of a group of people who really, I wouldn't say they despise what I | 所以他是一群人的教头 他们不会轻视我 |
| 56 | do, but they certainly don't like what I do because they think that the emphasis on biases | 做,但他们当然不喜欢 我做什么,因为他们认为强调偏见 |
| 57 | of judgment has drawn an unjustly unfavorable picture of the human mind. | 判决给人类的心灵描绘了一幅不公的画面。 |
| 58 | And by and large, I'm inclined to agree. | 总的来说,我倾向于同意。 |
| 59 | Seven or eight years ago, I invited him and we worked together for a number of years trying | 七八年前,我邀请了他 我们一起工作了几年 |
| 60 | to figure out what is the boundary? | 找出边界是什么? |
| 61 | Where is intuition marvelous and where is it flawed and can we tell? | 直觉在哪里? 哪里有缺陷? 我们能分辨出来吗? |
| 62 | And I think we can tell. | 我想我们可以知道。 |
| 63 | And we wrote a paper at the end of six or seven years with a lot of vicissitudes that | 我们写了一篇论文 在六、七年的末期 有很多变化 |
| 64 | we went through since we basically don't agree. | 因为我们基本上不同意,所以才经过 |
| 65 | We wrote a paper, the title of which was on a failure to disagree because on the substance, | 我们写了一篇论文, 题目是"没有异议", 因为实际上, |
| 66 | I think we know and we both agree where you can trust intuition and where you cannot. | 我想我们都知道,我们都同意 哪里你可以相信直觉,哪里你做不到。 |
| 67 | Emotionally, we haven't changed. | 情感上,我们没有改变。 |
| 68 | He still hates the idea of biases and doesn't think that areas of experts are very funny | 他仍然讨厌偏执的想法,不认为 专家领域是很有趣的 |
| 69 | and I think that areas of experts are quite funny. | 我认为专家领域相当有趣。 |
| 70 | So that's a difference right there. | 因此,这是一个区别 在那里。 |
| 71 | There are two modes of thinking that all of us are familiar with. | 我们所有人都熟悉两种思维方式。 |
| 72 | And there is one mode, one way for thoughts that come to mind and this is this. | 一种模式,一种方式 来思考,这就是这个。 |
| 73 | I mean, you know about this lady that she's angry just as quickly as you know that her | 我的意思是,你知道 关于这个女人, 她的愤怒,就像你知道她 |
| 74 | hair is dark and it's interesting to dwell a bit about this. | 头发很黑,想多呆一会也很有趣 |
| 75 | This is not something, the judgment that she's angry or the impression that she's angry | 这不是什么事情,判断 她生气或印象 她生气 |
| 76 | doesn't feel like something you did. | 感觉不像是你干的 |
| 77 | It feels like something that happens. | 感觉好像发生了点什么 |
| 78 | It happens to me. | 发生在我身上。 |
| 79 | We have the basic experience is a passive experience in those judgments. | 我们的基本经验是这些判决的被动经验。 |
| 80 | And that is true of perception. | 感知就是这样。 |
| 81 | When we see the world, we don't decide to see it. | 当见世尊不决定见. |
| 82 | It is true of impressions and it is true in general what we call intuitive thinking. | 印象是真实的,我们所说的直觉思维是真实的。 |
| 83 | It just happens. | 它只是发生。 |
| 84 | It comes from somewhere and we are not the author of it. | 它来自某个地方,我们不是它的作者。 |
| 85 | Now there is another way that thoughts come to mind and here I suppose essentially nothing | 现在有另一种方式 思想开始思考 在这里,我想基本上没有 |
| 86 | came to your mind but the answer is 408. | 你终于想到了 但答案是408 |
| 87 | To produce the 408 requires a completely different kind of operation. | 生产408型需要完全不同的操作. |
| 88 | You have to retrieve the program that you learned in school. | 你必须拿回你在学校学到的课程 |
| 89 | The program consists of steps. | 节目由台阶组成. |
| 90 | You have to go through the steps. | 你必须穿过台阶。 |
| 91 | You've got to pay attention successively to partial products and so on and keep things | 你得相继关注 部分产品等等 并保存东西 |
| 92 | in mind and keep the whole program in mind. | 记住 记住整个计划 |
| 93 | And this is hard work. | 这是很辛苦的工作。 |
| 94 | This is something that you do. | 这是你做的事情。 |
| 95 | It is not something that happens to you. | 这不是发生在你身上的事情。 |
| 96 | And there are many indications that this is hard work. | 有许多迹象表明,这是艰苦的工作。 |
| 97 | One is that physiology indicates that this is hard work. | 其一,生理学表明这是艰苦的工作. |
| 98 | The pupil dilates. | 瞳孔扩张。 |
| 99 | This is something that I studied many, many years ago. | 这是我很多年前研究过的东西。 |
| 100 | The pupil really on a program like that, on a problem like that, if you are going to | 学生真的在这样的程序, 在这样的一个问题, 如果你要去 |
| 101 | do it in your head, your pupil will dilate, the area will increase by about 50% as soon | 做在你的脑袋里,你的瞳孔会扩大,面积会增加约50% |
| 102 | as you engage in that and it will stay dilated as long as you are working and it will sort | 当你参与, 它会保持扩大 只要你在工作, 它会排序 |
| 103 | of collapse back to normal size either when you quit or when you find the answer. | 当您退出或找到答案时, 崩溃会恢复到正常大小。 |
| 104 | So this is another way thoughts come to mind. | 因此,这是另一种思考方式。 |
| 105 | And this is definitely not the intuitive way. | 这绝对不是直觉的方法。 |
| 106 | Here we are, we feel a sense of agency. | 在这里,我们感到一种代理感。 |
| 107 | We feel something deliberate is happening and a very important aspect of it. | 我们感到正在发生一些刻意的事情,而且这是一个非常重要的方面。 |
| 108 | This is effortful and what psychologists mean by effort is basically, you know, if you want | 这是费力的,心理学家的意思 基本上,你知道, 如果你想 |
| 109 | a quick introduction to what effort is, this is something you cannot do while making a | 简单介绍一下努力是什么 这是你无法做到的 |
| 110 | left turn into traffic. | 左转成为交通。 |
| 111 | You cannot do it and you shouldn't try. | 你不能这样做,你不应该尝试。 |
| 112 | And the reason is that there is limited capacity to exert effort and if you engage that capacity | 原因是,努力的能力有限,如果你利用这种能力 |
| 113 | of those resources in one task, less is available for another task. | 用于另一项任务的资源较少。 |
| 114 | Now, there is another function of system two and here I'm going to tell you a riddle, most | 现在,还有另一个功能 第二系统 在这里,我要告诉你一个谜语,大多数 |
| 115 | of you are familiar with it. | 你们熟悉它。 |
| 116 | A bat and a ball together cost a dollar ten, the bat costs a dollar more than the ball | 一只球和一只球一起要10美元, 球比球多1美元 |
| 117 | and of course how much does the ball cost. | 球要花多少钱? |
| 118 | How many people know this riddle by the way? | 顺便说一句,有多少人知道这个谜语? |
| 119 | Oh, okay, so it's still usable. | 哦,好吧,所以它仍然可以使用。 |
| 120 | The point about this riddle is that the number came to your mind and the number is ten cents | 这个谜题的要点是 数字出现在你的脑海里 数字是十美分 |
| 121 | and everybody, just I think, you know, maybe here, maybe there are exceptions, very few | 每个人,只是我想, 你知道,也许在这里, 也许有例外,非常少 |
| 122 | exceptions, people confess that the number ten cents immediately came to mind. | 除了,人们承认 数字十美分立即想到。 |
| 123 | Now it's wrong. | 现在错了。 |
| 124 | I mean, ten cents and a dollar ten is a dollar twenty so that's not the solution, the solution | 我的意思是,十美分和一美元 十是一美元二十 所以这不是解决方案,解决方案 |
| 125 | is five cents. | 是五毛钱。 |
| 126 | But what is interesting here is that at Princeton, at MIT, at Harvard, and I don't know about | 但有趣的是普林斯顿大学 麻省理工学院 哈佛大学 我不知道 |
| 127 | Stanford or Caltech, but about fifty percent of students ask this question of undergraduates | 斯坦福或加州理工学院,但大约50%的学生 问这个本科生的问题 |
| 128 | say ten cents. | 说十分. |
| 129 | And we learned something very interesting when somebody says ten cents. | 我们学到了非常有趣的东西 当有人说10美分。 |
| 130 | We learned that they didn't check because if they had checked they wouldn't say ten | 我们得知他们没检查 因为如果他们检查过 他们就不会说10 |
| 131 | cents. | 一分钱 |
| 132 | So there is a sense of confidence that people have, that these people in particular have, | 因此,人们有一种自信感, 特别是这些人有, |
| 133 | and it brings us to another function of what I'll call system two. | 它给我们带来了另一个功能 我要称之为系统二。 |
| 134 | System one is the intuitive one, it performs those automatic activities and system two | 系统一是直观的,它进行那些自动活动,系统二 |
| 135 | is the effortful one, the one that's the deliberate one. | 是努力的, 是故意的。 |
| 136 | And the reason that I classify this as a system two operation is that self-control and controlling | 我将这归类为系统二操作的原因是 自我控制和控制 |
| 137 | your attention and deliberate exertion of effort are impaired by other activities. | 你们的注意力和努力因其他活动而受到影响。 |
| 138 | So if for example, to give you a trivial example, if somebody is asked to retain seven digits | 所以,比如说,给你一个小例子, 如果有人被要求保留七个数字 |
| 139 | in their head and is then given a choice between chocolate cake, sinful chocolate cake and | 然后在巧克力蛋糕 罪恶的巧克力蛋糕和 |
| 140 | virtuous fruit salad, they are more likely to choose the chocolate cake than they would | 良性水果沙拉 他们比他们更可能选择巧克力蛋糕 |
| 141 | if they were asked without seven digits in their head. | 如果问他们时,头部没有七个数字。 |
| 142 | It takes some effort to control your impulses, even such mild impulses as a preference for | 要控制你的冲动 需要一些努力 即使是轻度冲动 |
| 143 | chocolate. | 朱古力(英语: |
| 144 | So, you should be aware of that difference between system one operations, the automatic | 所以,你应该知道系统一操作,自动操作之间的区别 |
| 145 | ones and system two operations, the deliberate ones. | 和系统两个操作, 故意操作。 |
| 146 | It comes very clearly when in driving. | 开车的时候会非常清楚 |
| 147 | So driving is a skill and any skilled activity, measure of skill, is that things begin to | 因此,驾驶是一种技能,任何技术活动, 衡量技能,是事物开始 |
| 148 | happen automatically. | 自动发生。 |
| 149 | So you can drive and conduct a conversation. | 这样你就可以开车和进行谈话。 |
| 150 | You cannot make a left turn into traffic, but by and large, we can drive and talk. | 你不能左转 交通, 但总的来说,我们可以开车和说话。 |
| 151 | So driving is largely automatic. | 所以驾驶基本上是自动的. |
| 152 | Braking, when there is any sign of danger, braking is completely automatic. | 刹车 当有危险迹象时 刹车是完全自动的 |
| 153 | That is, you can notice why you are braking, but you first respond so that the response | 也就是说,你可以注意到你为什么 刹车,但你先回答,这样的反应 |
| 154 | is immediate, it is fully automatic. | 这是立即的,它是完全自动的。 |
| 155 | Now, in some places, not here, where people drive in snow or ice, they learn about skids. | 现在,在有些地方,不是在这里, 人们在雪或冰中开车, 他们学习滑雪。 |
| 156 | And then occasionally, you'll find yourself as a driver in a skid and then system two | 偶尔你会发现自己是个驾驶员 然后是二号系统 |
| 157 | will be mobilized because in a skid, you are not supposed to do anything that comes naturally | 你不应该做任何自然而然的事 |
| 158 | to you. | 给你的。 |
| 159 | You shouldn't brake and you shouldn't steer away from the skid. | 你不应该刹车,你不应该避开滑雪。 |
| 160 | You should leave the brakes alone and steer into the skid, completely non-intuitive. | 你该把刹车放一边 开进滑行的完全不直观的地方 |
| 161 | Now when people have a lot of practice with skids, that too becomes automatic. | 现在,当人们有很多练习 与滑雪, 这太自动。 |
| 162 | So one thing that we can tell about system one and system two, those two types of operations, | 关于系统一和系统二, 两种类型的操作, |
| 163 | is some of the basic innate operations, functions that we have, such as perceiving things, having | 是一些基本的内在操作, 我们拥有的功能,例如感知事物, |
| 164 | emotional reactions to things, all this is system one. | 情感对事物的反应, 所有这一切都是系统一。 |
| 165 | We don't choose to do it, it just happens to us. | 我们没有选择这样做,它只是发生在我们身上。 |
| 166 | But also, system one is where skill is. | 系统一就是技术所在 |
| 167 | That is, when we get to be skilled at something, it becomes automatic and it demands your resources | 也就是说,当我们变得有技能的时候,它就会自动化,需要你的资源 |
| 168 | and we get to be very good at it. | 而我们得到 非常擅长它。 |
| 169 | Now the issue of intuition, and here I'm not sure, but I suspect that Malcolm Gladwell | 现在的直觉问题, 在这里我不确定, 但我怀疑马尔科姆格拉德威尔 |
| 170 | really did us a disservice by giving that sense that there is a magic to intuition. | 给我们一种感觉 直觉有魔力 对我们确实有害 |
| 171 | There really is no magic at all and we should understand how it works. | 真的没有魔法,我们应该明白它是如何运作的。 |
| 172 | Intuition and Herbert Simon, who was a psychologist and an economist and a political scientist | Intuition和赫伯特·西蒙曾是心理学家、经济学家和政治学家 |
| 173 | and a Nobel laureate, Herbert Simon gave a very good definition of what intuition is. | 和诺贝尔奖得主赫伯特·西蒙(Herbert Simon)对直觉的定义非常好. |
| 174 | It is simply recognition. | 这仅仅是承认。 |
| 175 | There is really no difference between the physician recognizing a disease, a particular | 医生承认一种疾病, 一种特定的, |
| 176 | disease from a facial expression or something, and a little child pointing to something and | 病从面部表情什么的, 一个小孩指的东西, |
| 177 | saying doggy. | 说狗。 |
| 178 | The little child has no idea what the clues are, but he just said, he just knows this | 那孩子不知道线索是什么 但他只是说 他只知道 |
| 179 | is a dog without knowing why he knows. | 是只狗 不知道他为什么知道 |
| 180 | And once you think about it this way, this really demystifies intuition to a very considerable | 一旦你这样思考, 这真的解密了直觉 一个非常可观的 |
| 181 | extent and it also leads you to a sort of a solution to the problem that Gary Klein | 和它也引导你 某种解决的问题 Gary Klein |
| 182 | and I were trying to solve. | 我试图解决。 |
| 183 | When can you trust intuition and when can't you? | 你什么时候可以相信直觉,什么时候可以相信? |
| 184 | And then it becomes an issue of is the world regular enough so that you can learn to recognize | 然后它成为一个问题 是一个世界的规律 足够让你可以学会承认 |
| 185 | things and then did that particular individual have an opportunity to learn the regularities | 事情,然后,那个特定的人 有机会学习规律 |
| 186 | of the world. | 这个世界。 |
| 187 | So the world of chess players is highly regular and statistically even the world of poker | 所以棋手的世界是高度规律的 统计上甚至是扑克的世界 |
| 188 | players is regular so they can be an element of chess, but there are rules and the mind | 玩家是常规的,所以他们可以成为国际象棋的一个元素, 但有规则和思想 |
| 189 | is so set that if there are rules in the environment and we're exposed to them for a long time | 如果环境有规矩,我们长期接触 |
| 190 | and we get immediate feedback on what is right and wrong, or fairly immediate feedback, | 我们立即得到对错的反馈 或者相当即时的反馈 |
| 191 | we will acquire those rules. | 我们将获得这些规则。 |
| 192 | So all of us have expert intuitions, even if we're not physicians and we're not chess | 所以,我们每个人都有专家的直觉, 即使我们不是医生,我们也不是象棋 |
| 193 | players, master chess players, I recognize my wife's mood from one word on the telephone | 我从电话上一个字就能认出我妻子的心情 |
| 194 | and most of you can do that, there's people that you know very well. | 多数人可以做到这一点, 有的人你非常了解。 |
| 195 | All of us recognize a dangerous driver on the next lane and we get cues and we don't | 我们都认得下一个车道上一个危险的司机 我们得到提示,我们没有 |
| 196 | necessarily know what is the cue, but that this person is driving erratically and could | 一定是知道什么是提示, 但这个人驾驶不稳定 并且可能 |
| 197 | do something dangerous and this is a lot of reinforced practice and we're very good at | 做一些危险的事情 这是很多强化的练习 我们非常擅长 |
| 198 | that. | 那个 |
| 199 | We can learn about those, there are differences among experts, among professionals in the | 我们可以了解这些,专家之间和专业人员之间有差异。 |
| 200 | level of expertise that they have and they depend in the level of intuitive expertise | 他们拥有的专门知识水平,取决于直观的专门知识水平 |
| 201 | that they can develop. | 他们可以发展。 |
| 202 | So for example compare anesthesiologist to radiologist, anesthesiologists get very good | 举例来说 麻醉师和放射学家比较 麻醉师变得非常好 |
| 203 | and immediate feedback whenever they do anything wrong. | 只要他们做错事,就立即反馈 |
| 204 | They have all those measurements that are in real time and they get the feedback. | 他们有实时的测量结果 并且得到反馈 |
| 205 | Radiologists get really miserable feedback about whether they're right or wrong. | 放射科医生得到的反馈很悲惨 无论是对还是错 |
| 206 | So you could expect an anesthesiologist to develop intuition much more than you would | 这样你就能指望麻醉师的直觉比你想的要高得多 |
| 207 | expect radiologists to develop intuition and so that is part of the answer about intuitive | 期望放射科医生能发展直觉 所以这是直觉答案的一部分 |
| 208 | expertise. | 专门知识。 |
| 209 | We don't need to disagree about that because we know pretty much when intuitive expertise | 我们不需要对此有异议 因为我们知道很多 当直观的专门知识 |
| 210 | is likely to develop and as I said we also, that means that intuitive expertise is not | 正如我所说的,这意味着直觉性的专门知识不是 |
| 211 | going to develop in a chaotic universe or in a chaotic world. | 在混乱的宇宙或混乱的世界中发展 |
| 212 | So for example I personally do not believe that stock pickers, people who pick stocks | 举例来说,我个人不相信 采股者, 采股者 |
| 213 | to invest in can develop intuition because simply the market takes care of it. | 投资可以发展直觉,因为市场可以照顾它。 |
| 214 | There isn't enough regularity in what's going to happen to prices for intuitions to develop. | 对于直觉的发展来说,价格的规律性还不够。 |
| 215 | We also know about political forecasters when they forecast long term they are really no | 我们还知道政治预测者 当他们预测长期, 他们真的不是 |
| 216 | better than a dart throwing monkey and they're certainly not better than the average reader | 胜过扔猴子的飞镖 他们肯定不比普通读者好 |
| 217 | in the New York Times. | 在纽约时报上 |
| 218 | In intuitions and the reason it's not the pundits fault and that research has been done | 从直觉和原因来看 并不是专家的过错 研究已经完成 |
| 219 | with pundits and with CIA analysts and with regional experts it is really not their fault | 有专家,有中情局分析员 也有区域专家 这其实不是他们的错 |
| 220 | that they're not, that they can't predict the long range future, 10 or 15 years. | 他们不能预测未来 10年或15年 |
| 221 | They're quite good at short term predictions, they're really not very good at all in long | 他们很擅长短期预测,真的不擅长长期 |
| 222 | term predictions. | 术语预测。 |
| 223 | It's not their fault, it's the fault of the world. | 这不是他们的错,这是世界的错。 |
| 224 | The world is probably not predictable and if the world is not predictable you are not | 世界可能无法预测,如果世界无法预测,你就无法预测 |
| 225 | going to, you're not going to predict it. | 去,你不会预测它。 |
| 226 | When there are marginal situations where there is some predictability but poor, formulas | 当有某种可预测性但较差的边缘情况时,公式 |
| 227 | do better than individuals. | 比个人做得更好 |
| 228 | That is the domain where formulas beat individuals regularly is a domain of fairly low predictability | 这就是公式经常击败个人的领域,这是一个相当低的可预测性领域 |
| 229 | because when there are weak cues people are not very good at picking them up and are not | 因为当有弱的提示 人们不擅长接他们 而不是 |
| 230 | good at using them consistently but formulas can be generated on the basis of experience | 善于一致使用,但可根据经验生成公式 |
| 231 | and they will do a better job than individual judgment. | 他们的工作比个人判断要好。 |
| 232 | Okay, now I've introduced you to system one and system two and I've told you something | 好了,现在我介绍你到系统一和系统二,我告诉你一些事情 |
| 233 | about skill and about skill in system one. | 关于技能和第一系统的技能。 |
| 234 | Now I'd like to point out something that we sometimes have intuitions and that applies | 现在我想指出一些东西 我们有时有直觉 并且适用 |
| 235 | to political forecasters and to stock pickers and to all of us. | 给政治预报员、拾股员和我们所有人 |
| 236 | We quite frequently have intuitions that are false and they come up and come to mind and | 我们经常有错的直觉, 和他们出现和想到, |
| 237 | they are subjectively undistinguishable from expert intuitions so I'm now talking of people | 他们主观上和专家直觉是分不开的 所以我现在说的是人 |
| 238 | who have intuitions that are not based on expertise and they come, they're system one | 他们的直觉不是基于专业知识 他们来了,他们是系统一 |
| 239 | in the sense that they are effortless and automatic and where do they come from and | 因为他们是无劳的,是自动的,他们从何而来? |
| 240 | that is what I'm going to try to illuminate, shed some light on in the rest of the talk. | 我将试着照亮它, 在谈话的其余部分提供一些启示。 |
| 241 | So I want to introduce you to system one. | 所以我想向大家介绍一个系统。 |
| 242 | And first of all let me get one thing clear because I might forget. | 首先让我说清楚 因为我可能忘记了 |
| 243 | I use system one and system two, those terms, they're very shocking terms in my discipline. | 我使用系统一和系统二, 这些术语, 他们非常令人震惊的术语在我的学科。 |
| 244 | You're really not supposed to do that because every psychologist gets taught fairly early | 你真的不该这么做 因为每个心理学家都早点学会 |
| 245 | you're not supposed to explain what happens in the mind by invoking little agents inside | 你不该通过 招揽小探员来解释 心里发生了什么 |
| 246 | the mind and explain what the mind does by what the little agents do. | 来解释一下这些小特工们做了什么 |
| 247 | Those are homunculi and that's a bad word in psychology. | 这些都是homunculi, 这是一个坏字在心理学。 |
| 248 | I'm going to use system one and system two absolutely as homunculi. | 我要使用系统一和系统二 绝对作为蜂窝。 |
| 249 | Now what do I have to say in my defense? | 现在我该说什么呢? |
| 250 | First of all, well I'm warning you, those are fictitious characters, they don't exist. | 首先,我警告你, 那些是虚构的人物,不存在。 |
| 251 | I don't believe that there is such a thing as system one and system two. | 我不相信有 系统一和系统二。 |
| 252 | Don't look for them in the brain because they are not two systems in the brain of which | 不要在大脑里寻找它们 因为它们不是大脑中的两个系统 |
| 253 | one does one and the other does the other. | 一个做一个,另一个做另一个。 |
| 254 | So why am I using this terrible language? | 那我为什么要用这种可怕的语言? |
| 255 | I'm using it because I think that is helpful, it fits the way our minds work and to explain | 我使用它,因为我认为这是有用的, 它符合我们的思维方式 并解释 |
| 256 | the background of that decision of why I use system one and system two, I refer you to | 关于我为什么使用系统一和系统二的背景,我请你参考 |
| 257 | a very good book that I really recommend because in addition to its being informative it's | 我建议写一本非常好的书 因为除了内容丰富外 |
| 258 | very entertaining. | 非常令人愉快。 |
| 259 | It's by Joshua Furr and it's called Moonwalking with Einstein and it came out earlier this | 由约书亚·弗瑞尔作曲 与爱因斯坦一起行走的月球 |
| 260 | year and what the book is about, Joshua Furr went, he is a science writer and he went | 约书亚·福尔是科学作家 他去了 |
| 261 | to the memory championship of the United States, you might not know there is such a thing but | 在美国的记忆锦标赛上 你也许不知道有这样的事情 |
| 262 | there is. | 就是这样 |
| 263 | So people memorize decks of cards and very, very long lists of things and perform feats | 所以人们会记住牌的牌 和非常,非常长的清单 和表演的功绩 |
| 264 | that we think are completely extraordinary. | 我们认为是完全不同寻常的。 |
| 265 | Joshua Furr decided to find out what happens and a year later he was actually the champion, | 约书亚 Furr决定查清楚发生了什么 一年后他实际上是冠军 |
| 266 | the memory champion of the United States and the book is the story of how he did it and | 美国的记忆冠军 书中讲述了他是如何做到的 |
| 267 | basically the story which was known to the Greeks in some form is that memory is very, | 基本上希腊人以某种形式知道的故事 是记忆非常, |
| 268 | very good at some things and terrible at other things. | 非常擅长一些东西, 可怕的东西。 |
| 269 | Memory is terrible at remembering lists, we are really not good at remembering lists. | 记忆在记忆列表中是可怕的,我们真的不擅长记忆列表. |
| 270 | Memory is superb at remembering routes through space. | 记忆在记忆中超乎寻常, |
| 271 | That evolution has endowed us with an ability to remember routes and not lists. | 这种演变使我们有能力记住路线而不是清单。 |
| 272 | So now you can trick yourself, if you mentally you have a list and you want to remember the | 所以,现在你可以欺骗自己, 如果你精神上你有列表,你想记住 |
| 273 | list then you create a mental route and you distribute the items on your list along the | 列表然后创建一个精神路径,然后沿着 |
| 274 | route and then when you want to remember the deck of cards or whatever it is then you go | 路由,然后当你想记住牌甲板 或者它是什么,然后你去 |
| 275 | through your route and you pick out the items one after the other because that you can do. | 在你的路线上,你逐个挑选物品,因为你可以做到。 |
| 276 | It turns out that something very similar happens in another context. | 结果发现,在另一种背景下发生了非常相似的情况。 |
| 277 | People are very good thinking about agents. | 人们对特工的想法很好 |
| 278 | The mind is set really beautifully to think about agents. | 思考特工的心思非常美好 |
| 279 | Agents have traits, agents have behaviors, we understand agents, we form global impressions | 特工有特质,特工有行为,我们理解特工,我们形成全球印象 |
| 280 | of their personalities. | 他们的人格。 |
| 281 | We are really not very good at remembering sentences where the subject of the sentence | 我们真的不太善于记住句子 句子的主题 |
| 282 | is an abstract notion but an agent is very, very good. | 是一个抽象的概念,但一个代理人是非常,非常好。 |
| 283 | So just remember whenever I say system one does X, what I mean is that X is a mental | 所以只要记住,每当我说系统一做X, 我的意思是,X是一个精神 |
| 284 | activity that can be performed automatically and without effort. | 能够自动和不费力地进行的活动。 |
| 285 | You'll remember a lot more about system one if you think of it as doing things than if | 如果你认为它比做事情更能记住系统一 |
| 286 | you think of those mental activities. | 你想想那些心理活动 |
| 287 | It helps me think and I think it helps other people understand. | 它能帮助我思考 我认为它能帮助其他人理解 |
| 288 | So let me introduce you to system one. | 让我给你介绍一个系统。 |
| 289 | I'll begin with a study, just an extreme case. | 我先做个研究 只是个极端的案子 |
| 290 | This study was done at the university in the UK and like in many departments of biology | 这项研究是在英国大学和许多生物学系进行的 |
| 291 | actually, and like many places in the UK, they have a small room which is a tea room | 实际上,像英国很多地方一样, 他们有一个小房间,是一个茶室 |
| 292 | or coffee room where people can make themselves tea or coffee and get some biscuits and there | 或咖啡室,人们可以自己煮茶或咖啡 和得到一些饼干和那里 |
| 293 | is an honesty box and they pay into the honesty box. | 一个诚实的盒子,他们支付 在诚实的盒子。 |
| 294 | Somebody had the bright idea of sticking a poster right on top of the honesty box and | 有人有一个好主意,在诚实的盒子上贴上海报 |
| 295 | of changing the poster once a week. | 每周更换一次海报 |
| 296 | And so this is week one and that's the poster. | 这是第一周,这就是海报。 |
| 297 | Week two is flowers. | 第二周为花. |
| 298 | Week three is eyes and so on. | 第三周为眼等. |
| 299 | Now what is remarkable about this is this is something that happens to people. | 这一点令人瞩目的是,这是发生在人们身上的事情。 |
| 300 | They have no idea it's happening to them. | 他们不知道这发生在他们身上。 |
| 301 | In fact, they have no idea about the posters. | 事实上,他们对海报一无所知。 |
| 302 | They are barely aware that their poster is there. | 他们几乎不知道他们的海报在那里。 |
| 303 | They certainly don't know that the posters change systematically. | 他们肯定不知道海报有系统变化. |
| 304 | They have no idea that the posters influence their behavior. | 他们不知道海报会影响他们的行为 |
| 305 | System one can do those things. | 系统一可以做那些事。 |
| 306 | Those things, a lot is happening in our mind that we're not fully aware of, that we're | 那些东西,很多事情发生在我们的脑海 我们没有充分意识到,我们 |
| 307 | not aware of at all in fact. | 其实根本不知道 |
| 308 | And there is a link between eyes and being watched and being watched and not wanting | 眼睛和被监视 被监视 和不想看到 |
| 309 | to do bad things or wanting to do good things. | 做坏事 或想要做好事。 |
| 310 | All of this is deep in our associative memory and it gets activated. | 所有这一切都是深入 我们的关联记忆, 它被激活。 |
| 311 | You see eyes, especially those large eyes on week one, and it does something to you | 你看见眼睛了,尤其是第一个星期的大眼睛, 它对你有所帮助 |
| 312 | that you may not be aware it does. | 以免你们不知所措。 |
| 313 | Now let me show you something else. | 现在让我给你看别的东西。 |
| 314 | This I just want to enumerate very briefly what happened to you in the couple of seconds | 我只想简单列举一下你们在几秒钟内发生的事 |
| 315 | the first couple of seconds when I put this on the screen. | 头两秒钟 当我把这个放在屏幕上。 |
| 316 | And first of all, you read them. | 首先,你读过 |
| 317 | You read the words. | 汝念诸字. |
| 318 | Now you didn't intend to read the words. | 现在你不打算读这些话了 |
| 319 | You didn't have to decide. | 你不必决定 |
| 320 | I mean, you had to read them. | 我的意思是,你不得不读它们。 |
| 321 | You had no choice in the matter. | 你在这件事上别无选择 |
| 322 | Second, ideas and images and memories came to mind, probably none of them very pleasant. | 第二,人们想到了各种想法、图像和记忆,也许没有一个是令人愉快的。 |
| 323 | So that's the second thing that happened. | 所以,这是第二件事发生。 |
| 324 | Another thing that happened is physical. | 发生的另一个事情是身体。 |
| 325 | You recoil. | 你个后坐力 |
| 326 | This has actually been measured. | 这实际上已经测量过了。 |
| 327 | I mean, when people are exposed to a threatening word, they move back. | 我的意思是,当人们接触到一个威胁的字, 他们搬回来。 |
| 328 | So the threat is to some extent, to some slight extent, taken to be real. | 因此,这种威胁在某种程度上略微被认为是真实的。 |
| 329 | The symbolic threat is taken to be real. | 象征性的威胁被认为是真实的。 |
| 330 | You made a disgust face. | 你的脸很恶心 |
| 331 | You experienced disgust. | 你感到恶心 |
| 332 | And that is getting to be interesting because those things are reciprocally reinforcing. | 这越来越有趣了,因为这些东西相互强化。 |
| 333 | So if you make a disgust face, you are more likely to feel disgust. | 所以如果你做一个恶心的脸, 你更可能感到恶心。 |
| 334 | If you make a smiling face, you are more likely to think that things are funny. | 如果你做一个笑脸, 你更有可能认为事情是有趣的。 |
| 335 | So one of my favorite experiments along those lines is you take a pencil, you stick it in | 我最喜欢的实验之一是 你拿一支铅笔 插进去 |
| 336 | your mouth like that, and cartoons will appear funnier to you because when you stick a pencil | 你那样的嘴, 和卡通会看起来更有趣 对你来说,因为当你用铅笔 |
| 337 | into your mouth like that, you are making a smile. | 那样的嘴里,你正在微笑。 |
| 338 | And just the sheer muscular change is enough to feed back into our emotions and our feelings. | 光是肌肉的改变 就足以回馈我们的情感和感情 |
| 339 | This is all fairly important because what it means is you can think of, well, let me | 这都很重要 因为这意味着你能想到 让我 |
| 340 | add something and then I'll pull it together. | 加入一些东西,然后我会把它拉在一起。 |
| 341 | I think of system one very largely in terms of what happens in associative memory. | 我想到一个系统, 主要是联系记忆中发生的事情。 |
| 342 | And to think of associative memory, you can think of a gigantic network of ideas and the | 想到关联记忆, 你可以想到一个巨大的网络 想法和 |
| 343 | ideas are linked to each other in various ways associatively. | 思想之间以各种方式相互联系。 |
| 344 | Some of them are causes of other things or categories or example instances of, there | 有些是其他事物的原因 或类别或实例 |
| 345 | are many different links. | 有许多不同的链接。 |
| 346 | But you have that huge representation of ideas that we have in our mind and at any one time | 但是,你有着巨大的代表 思想,我们有在我们脑海 和任何时间 |
| 347 | the stimulus occurs, it activates a subset of those nodes in that representation in memory | 刺激发生后,它激活了记忆中 代表中的一些节点 |
| 348 | and then activation spreads through the associative network. | 然后激活通过关联网络传播. |
| 349 | Not a lot, but it spreads some. | 不多,但它传播了一些。 |
| 350 | So for example, you're now, and we can know that it spreads because we become sensitized | 所以,比如说,你现在是, 而且我们知道它扩散,因为我们变得敏感 |
| 351 | to other ideas that have been activated in this fashion. | 以这种方式被激活的其他想法。 |
| 352 | So for example, right now, if somebody whispered words in your ears, you would be much more | 比如说,现在,如果有人在你的耳朵里低声说话, 你会变得更多 |
| 353 | likely to detect and recognize words like sickness and smell and stink and nausea and | 可能发现和识别诸如疾病、臭味、恶心和 |
| 354 | hangover and a lot of associations have been activated. | 宿醉和许多协会已经启动. |
| 355 | You're not aware of any of them. | 你根本不知道他们是谁 |
| 356 | You're not aware of anything. | 汝等无明. |
| 357 | Those are not conscious activations, but they are activations nonetheless. | 这些并不是有意识的激活,但它们仍然是激活。 |
| 358 | And because those ideas are partially activated, a weak stimulus is going to be sufficient | 由于这些想法被部分激活,弱刺激就足够了 |
| 359 | to bring them over threshold. | 让他们超越门槛。 |
| 360 | This again is a very important function of system one or associative memory. | 这又是系统一或关联记忆的一个非常重要的功能. |
| 361 | We are prepared. | 我们准备好了。 |
| 362 | Basically, by the spreading activation, prepares things for what might come next. | 基本上,通过扩散的激活, 准备的东西 未来可能。 |
| 363 | You will be able to recognize and respond to things more easily than before. | 你会比以前更容易地认识和回应事物. |
| 364 | Then something else happens. | 然后发生一些事情。 |
| 365 | And this is, there are two words here, banana vomit, and you made a story. | 这是,这里有两个词,香蕉呕吐, 你做了一个故事。 |
| 366 | I mean, what happens, there is really no need to do that, but in effect, this was sufficient | 我的意思是,会发生什么, 真的没有必要这样做, 但实际上,这是足够的 |
| 367 | to create a causal link so that somehow the bananas cause the vomit. | 制造一个因果关系 这样香蕉就会导致呕吐 |
| 368 | You didn't make a conscious decision for that to happen, but we know that's the kind of | 你没有做一个有意识的决定 发生这一点, 但我们知道这是那种 |
| 369 | thing that happens. | 发生的事情。 |
| 370 | As soon as a stimulus is presented, we look back for causes. | 一旦提出刺激措施,我们就会回顾原因。 |
| 371 | The associative machinery looks back and latches on possible causes. | 联系机器回头看, 并按住可能的原因。 |
| 372 | Here, it's very simple to find a cause, and this has an effect. | 在这里,找到一个原因非常简单,这有效果. |
| 373 | So temporarily, you don't like bananas because an association has been created, and that | 所以暂时来说,你不喜欢香蕉 因为一个协会已经成立, |
| 374 | happens because of the causal search. | 因因果搜索而发生。 |
| 375 | So this should give you a sense of one of the functions of system one, and to complete | 因此,这应该给你一种感觉 一个系统的功能之一, 并完成 |
| 376 | that, let me show you something else. | 那,我给你看别的 |
| 377 | So this is a famous psychological demonstration, but many of you might not have seen it. | 因此,这是一个著名的心理演示, 但很多人可能没有看到它。 |
| 378 | You read that as A, B, C. You read this as 12, 13, 14, but the B and the 13 are physically | 你读的A,B,C。 你读的这个是12,13,14, 但B和13是物理的。 |
| 379 | identical. | 一样 |
| 380 | So this tells us something quite important about the way that associative machinery and | 因此,这告诉我们一些非常重要的事情 关于如何 联系机器和 |
| 381 | system one work on new stimuli. | 系统一的工作 对于新的刺激。 |
| 382 | Everything is made coherent. | 万事俱备 |
| 383 | So in the context of letters, that ambiguous stimulus is going to be read as a letter. | 因此,在字母的背景下,这个模棱两可的刺激将会被理解为一个字母. |
| 384 | In the context of numbers, it is going to be read as a number. | 在数字方面,它将被读作数字。 |
| 385 | What is quite important, there are two aspects here. | 重要的是,这里有两个方面。 |
| 386 | One is the coherence, and the other is that you're not aware of the ambiguity. | 一是一致性,二是不了解模糊性. |
| 387 | The ambiguity is suppressed. | 模糊性被压制. |
| 388 | That is, you just get one interpretation. | 也就是说,你只得到一个解释。 |
| 389 | In this case, it's a coherent interpretation, and that is the way that the system works. | 在这种情况下,这是一个连贯的解释,这就是系统的运作方式. |
| 390 | It generates associatively coherent representations or reactions to situations. | 它产生对局势的共同一致的表述或反应。 |
| 391 | Associative memory, or system one, is also the repository of our world knowledge. | 联合记忆,即系统一,也是我们世界知识的库藏. |
| 392 | So when an event occurs, our reaction to it is informed by a lot of things that we know. | 所以,当一个事件发生时, 我们对它的反应 来自于我们所知道的很多事情。 |
| 393 | And I'll give you my favorite example of this. | 我会给你我最喜欢的例子。 |
| 394 | This is people are listening to sentences while the events in their brain are recorded. | 这是人们在听句子 而他们的大脑中的事件被记录。 |
| 395 | And an upper-class male British voice says, I have large tattoos all down my back. | 一个上流阶层的英国男声说 我背上有大纹身 |
| 396 | And approximately 3 tenths of a second later, the brain responds with a characteristic signature | 大约十分之三的秒后 大脑用特征特征来反应 |
| 397 | of surprise. | 没想到 |
| 398 | This is astonishing if you stop to think about it. | 如果你停止思考,这是惊人的。 |
| 399 | I mean, was that voice? | 我的意思是,那是声音吗? |
| 400 | You have to classify it as an upper-class British voice. | 你必须把它归类为英国的上等声. |
| 401 | Now, upper-class British men don't have tattoos down their back. | 现在,上流社会英国人背上没有纹身. |
| 402 | Something is odd, and you get a surprise reaction. | 有些事情很奇怪,你得到一个惊喜的反应。 |
| 403 | You get a mobilization of system two, because system two is the one that pays attention. | 因为第二系统才是注意的 |
| 404 | Surprise calls attention to the event. | 惊喜会引起大家的注意 |
| 405 | You know, a male voice saying, I believe I'm pregnant, of course, same thing. | 你知道,一个男性的声音说, 我相信我怀孕了, 当然,同样的事情。 |
| 406 | So this system holds our world knowledge and uses our world knowledge to classify situations | 所以这个系统掌握着我们的世界知识 并利用我们的世界知识 来分类各种情况 |
| 407 | as normal or abnormal, and it does this at top speed. | 是正常的或不正常的, 它这样做的最高速度。 |
| 408 | And it updates very quickly. | 并且更新得很快。 |
| 409 | Well, I'll tell you a story about updating. | 好吧,我会告诉你一个故事 关于更新。 |
| 410 | It updates what it considers normal. | 它更新了它认为正常的东西。 |
| 411 | Now, this is an anecdote. | 这是传闻 |
| 412 | You're free not to believe me. | 你自由了 不信我的话 |
| 413 | I believe it, because it's a personal experience. | 我相信,因为这是个人经历。 |
| 414 | We were some years ago on vacation in Australia in a resort that has all of the 40 little | 我们几年前在澳洲度假 度假胜地有40个小 |
| 415 | villas, and in the evening, we go to have dinner, first evening, and we meet a psychologist | 晚上,我们去吃晚饭,第一天晚上, 我们遇见一个心理学家 |
| 416 | from Stanford. | 从斯坦福。 |
| 417 | Oh, you know, surprise, coincidence, and we're very delighted to meet each other. | 哦,你知道,惊喜,巧合, 我们很高兴见面。 |
| 418 | Now, two weeks later, we're in the theater in London, and it goes dark, and we watch, | 两周后,我们在伦敦的剧院里 天黑了,我们看着 |
| 419 | and then the lights come back on, and next to me, same guy. | 然后灯光又亮了 紧跟着我 同一个家伙 |
| 420 | Now, the important point is that I was less surprised the second time than the first, | 现在,重要的一点是,我第二次比第一次更不惊讶, |
| 421 | because, oh, John, you know, here's the guy I meet everywhere. | 因为,哦,约翰,你知道的, 这就是我到处遇到的人。 |
| 422 | I mean, it takes very little time to create what we call the norm. | 我的意思是,它需要很少的时间来创造 我们称之为规范。 |
| 423 | So one event, the second event, links back to the first. | 一个事件,第二个事件, 链接回第一个。 |
| 424 | If I had met anybody else, that is what's impressed me. | 如果我遇见了其他人 那让我印象深刻 |
| 425 | If I had met anybody else, I would have been more surprised. | 如果我遇到其他人,我会更惊讶。 |
| 426 | That's odd, if you think about it statistically. | 这是奇怪的,如果你从统计学上考虑。 |
| 427 | It is crazy. | 这是疯了。 |
| 428 | But in fact, it was very clear that, and I wouldn't say that I consciously expect to | 但事实上,这是非常明显的, 我不会说,我自觉地期望 |
| 429 | see John wherever I go, but, you know, if I'm going to meet someone, I'd be prepared | 无论我去哪里,都会见到约翰 但是,你知道,如果我要去见一个人,我会准备好的 |
| 430 | to meet John. | 认识约翰 |
| 431 | Now, I've mentioned something about causal thinking, and I want to give you some sense | 现在,我已经提到一些 因果关系思考, 我想给你一些意义 |
| 432 | of how that works. | 如何运作。 |
| 433 | So it's a question which is more probable, that a mother has blue eyes if her daughter | 因此,这是一个更可能的问题, 一个母亲有蓝眼睛,如果她的女儿 |
| 434 | has blue eyes, or that a daughter has blue eyes if her mother has blue eyes. | 眼睛是蓝色的,或者女儿是蓝色的,如果母亲是蓝色的。 |
| 435 | Now, again, as in the bat and ball, there is an intuitive response. | 现在,再次,像在蝙蝠和球, 有一个直觉的反应。 |
| 436 | And the intuitive response is that it's more probable that a daughter has blue eyes if | 直觉的反应是 女儿有蓝眼睛的可能性更大 |
| 437 | her mother has blue eyes than the other way around. | 她妈妈有蓝眼睛 |
| 438 | If you stop to do the math on the assumption that the incidence of blue eyes are the same | 如果你停止做数学 假设蓝眼睛的发生率是一样的 |
| 439 | in the two generations, the probabilities are strictly equal. | 在两代,概率是完全相等的。 |
| 440 | But even before you do the math, your reasoning flows along causal lines. | 但是,即使在你做数学之前, 你的推理会按照因果线进行。 |
| 441 | Your thinking flows along causal lines. | 你的思维是因果性的 |
| 442 | This happens intuitively, and it's not, and one of these fears, okay, it feels more coherent. | 这是直观的,它不是, 和其中的一个恐惧, 好吧,它感觉更连贯。 |
| 443 | And the coherence that we experience can be turned into a judgment of probability. | 而我们所经历的连贯性可以转化为对概率的判断. |
| 444 | That is, the confidence that we experience is a judgment of probability. | 也就是说,我们所感受到的信心是对概率的判断。 |
| 445 | Now, I'm going to skip the other example. | 现在,我要跳过另一个例子。 |
| 446 | And I said earlier that people have intuitions that are not necessarily true, and that people | 我之前说过,人们的直觉不一定是真实的,人们 |
| 447 | are confident in judgments that are not necessarily true. | 对不一定真实的判决有信心。 |
| 448 | And I would like to sort of present a tentative theory about how that happens. | 我想提出一个初步的理论 来说明这是怎么回事。 |
| 449 | And the general idea is very straightforward. | 而一般的想法是非常直截了当的. |
| 450 | When we're asked a question that we cannot answer, typically, system one is going to | 当我们被问到一个 我们无法回答的问题, 通常,系统一要 |
| 451 | come up with the answer to a related question that is easier, and it's going to use that | 提出一个更简单的相关问题的答案, 它会使用这个 |
| 452 | answer to the wrong question, the question that hasn't been asked, in place of the question | 回答错误的问题,没有被问到的问题,以代替问题 |
| 453 | that was asked. | 这被问到。 |
| 454 | We call that a mechanism of substitution. | 我们称之为替代机制。 |
| 455 | It's substituting an easier question for a hard one. | 以此代替一个比较简单的问题来代替一个困难的问题. |
| 456 | It happens automatically. | 自动发生. |
| 457 | People are not aware that it happens, and it is the source of many intuitions that don't | 人们不知道它会发生, 它是许多直觉的来源 不 |
| 458 | come from expertise, and they are much less likely to be correct than the intuitions that | 和直觉相比 他们不太可能正确 |
| 459 | do come from expertise, but they come with equal confidence, or just about. | 他们的确来自专业,但他们有同样的自信,或只是约。 |
| 460 | So there are several mechanisms that take part in this substitution thing, and I'd like | 因此,有几种机制 参与这个替代的东西, 我想 |
| 461 | to introduce them. | 介绍他们。 |
| 462 | One of them, which I call the mental shotgun, is that when you are trying to instruct it | 其中之一,我称之为精神猎枪, 当你试图指示它 |
| 463 | to perform an operation, you typically perform other operations as well that are related | 执行操作时,您通常执行其它操作以及相关的操作 |
| 464 | to it associatively, are related to the target operation, but they are different. | 与目标操作有关 但它们不同 |
| 465 | My favorite example is I'll say words, and you are to judge as quickly as possible whether | 我最喜欢的例子是 我会说出话来 你将尽快判断 |
| 466 | the words rhyme or not. | 词押韵与否. |
| 467 | The first pair of words is vote note. | 第一对词为投票注. |
| 468 | It's easy. | 方便无碍. |
| 469 | The second pair of questions is vote goat. | 第二对问题是投山羊. |
| 470 | Vote goat is substantially harder than vote note. | 投票山羊比投票记录难得多。 |
| 471 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 472 | Because although nobody asks you to, you spell. | 因为虽然没人要你,但你拼写。 |
| 473 | There's a mismatch in spelling, and although they rhyme, at least as I pronounce them, | 拼写不匹配 虽然有韵律 至少在我发音的时候 |
| 474 | just as well as vote note, you have a conflict, and the conflict slows you down. | 和选票一样,你有一个冲突, 冲突拖慢你。 |
| 475 | Typically, we compute more than we intend to compute. | 通常,我们计算得比我们想计算多。 |
| 476 | And that allows for substitutions to take place. | 这样可以进行替代。 |
| 477 | So let me give you an example of a substitution here. | 所以,让我举个例子来说明一个替代品。 |
| 478 | The question here would be, which of the three figures is larger on the screen? | 这里的问题是,屏幕上哪个数字更大? |
| 479 | And the answer is they're equal. | 答案是他们平等 |
| 480 | All three figures on the screen are of equal size. | 屏幕上的三个数字大小相同. |
| 481 | But it's a very powerful illusion. | 但它是一个非常强大的幻觉. |
| 482 | We see the figure on the right as larger than the figure on the left, and we see it | 我们看见右边的图 比左边的图大,我们看到它 |
| 483 | because you cannot help it. | 因为你无法自拔 |
| 484 | Although you were told to think of it as a two-dimensional object, you compute the | 虽然你被告知把它看作一个二维物体,但你计算 |
| 485 | three-dimensional solution in which the object on the right is in fact larger than the object | 右侧对象实际上大于对象的三维解决方案 |
| 486 | on the left, and that is what you see. | 左边,这就是你看到的。 |
| 487 | There are many other examples of this general process. | 这一总的进程还有其他许多例子。 |
| 488 | Another one I like is, I call that the dating heuristic. | 另一个我喜欢的是,我称之为 约会热情。 |
| 489 | Students are asked in a survey, they're asked two questions. | 学生在调查中被问到,他们被问到两个问题. |
| 490 | One is, how happy are you? | 第一,你有多高兴? |
| 491 | And the other is, how many dates did you have last month? | 另一个是,你上个月有多少次约会? |
| 492 | And if you ask the questions in that order, the correlation is essentially zero. | 如果你按这个顺序问问题, 相关性基本上是零。 |
| 493 | Turns out that there are many things in life that determine happiness, and dating is not | 原来人生有很多事情决定幸福 约会不是 |
| 494 | particularly important. | 特别重要的 |
| 495 | You invert the order, so you ask people, how many dates did you have last month, and how | 你颠倒命令,所以你问人们, 你有多少日期上个月, |
| 496 | happy are you with your life as a whole? | 幸福与你的生活整体吗? |
| 497 | Correlation is 0.66. | 关联度为0.66. |
| 498 | What has happened, and this is both a heuristic and an example of what I call the focus of | 发生了什么,这既是一个热力主义,也是一个我称之为焦点的例子。 |
| 499 | illusion, that you have an emotional reaction to, the student has an emotional reaction | 幻觉,你有一种情绪反应,学生有一种情绪反应 |
| 500 | to the question about number of dates, that emotional reaction is sitting there, then | 关于日期数的问题, 情绪反应坐在那里,然后 |
| 501 | you're asked a related question about happiness, and without knowing that you're doing this, | 你被问到一个有关幸福的问题, 而不知道你这样做, |
| 502 | you substitute one for the other. | 你用一个代替另一个 |
| 503 | And you can do it with many different questions. | 你可以用很多不同的问题来做。 |
| 504 | Now, it's not that people are confused about what happiness is. | 现在,并不是人们对什么是幸福感到困惑. |
| 505 | They know that happiness is not the same as satisfaction with the number of dates. | 他们知道幸福与对日期数的满足并不相同. |
| 506 | It's just that this is the answer that comes to mind, to the happiness question. | 这只是一个答案 想到的,关于幸福的问题。 |
| 507 | There has been substitution, and you're not aware of it. | 已经有人替补了,你不知道 |
| 508 | Now, there is a process that is essential to this, and this is another strange ability | 现在,有一个过程 这是至关重要的, 这是另一个奇怪的能力 |
| 509 | of system one. | 系统一。 |
| 510 | We can map intensities across different dimensions. | 我们可以绘制不同层面的强度图。 |
| 511 | So I'll give you my standard example for this. | 所以我会给你我的标准例子。 |
| 512 | So it's about Julie, who is a graduating senior, and she read fluently when she was | 因此,这是关于朱莉,谁是 一个毕业的高级, |
| 513 | age four, and the question is, what is her GPA? | 4岁,问题是, 她的GPA是什么? |
| 514 | And the odd thing is that you know what her GPA is, pretty much. | 奇怪的是你知道她的GPA是什么, 差不多。 |
| 515 | At least you have an idea. | 至少你有一个想法。 |
| 516 | I mean, it's clearly about 3.2. | 我的意思是,它显然大约3.2。 |
| 517 | It's clearly less than four, about 3.7, which is ridiculous, of course. | 这显然少于4,大约3.7,这当然是荒谬的. |
| 518 | But how do people get to 3.7 or somewhere like that? | 但人们怎么才能到达3.7或者类似的地方? |
| 519 | Well, here is how it goes. | 是这样的 |
| 520 | She read fluently at age four. | 她四岁的时候读得很流利 |
| 521 | That gives us an impression of precocity. | 这给我们的印象是先发制人。 |
| 522 | How precocious was she as a reader? | 她作为一个读者是多么的谨慎? |
| 523 | And people could express that in percentiles. | 人们可以用百分数来表达这一点。 |
| 524 | What is the likelihood that you'll meet a child that reads faster than that? | 你见到读得更快的孩子的可能性有多大? |
| 525 | Then when you're asked the question, what is her GPA, without you knowing you're doing it, | 然后当你被问到, 她的GPA是什么, 你不知道你这样做, |
| 526 | you're matching the percentiles. | 你和百分数相当 |
| 527 | And you get the GPA that is about as extreme in the distribution of GPA as reading at age | 你得到的GPA 在GPA的分布上 与年龄读数一样极端 |
| 528 | four is in the distribution of reading age. | 四是读书时代的分布. |
| 529 | Completely unaware. | 完全没有意识到。 |
| 530 | Statistically completely absurd. | 统计学上完全荒谬 |
| 531 | You should be much more regressive. | 你应该更后退 |
| 532 | This is not the correct answer. | 这不是正确的答案。 |
| 533 | But this is a compelling, subjective answer. | 但这是一个令人信服的主观答案。 |
| 534 | This is one of the mechanisms that lead to intuitive errors. | 这是导致直觉错误的机制之一. |
| 535 | This mechanism of substitution. | 这种替代机制。 |
| 536 | And I'll give you one more example. | 再举个例子 |
| 537 | International travelers, this is an experiment. | 国际旅行者,这是一个实验。 |
| 538 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 539 | The experiment was run during a period when there were many terrorist incidents in Europe. | 实验是在欧洲发生许多恐怖事件期间进行的。 |
| 540 | So that's the background. | 这就是背景。 |
| 541 | How much would you pay for insurance that pays $100,000 in case of death for any reason? | 你会付多少保险 支付10万美元 如果死亡的原因? |
| 542 | And how much would you pay for insurance that pays $100,000 in case of death in a terror incident? | 如果在恐怖事件中死亡 你会付多少保险金? |
| 543 | People pay much more for the second than for the first. | 人付第二比第一多得多。 |
| 544 | And the reason that they do is that there is an immediate response, which is how afraid am I? | 而他们这样做的理由是,有立即的反应,这就是我有多害怕? |
| 545 | And I'm more afraid, most people are. | 而且我更害怕,大多数人是。 |
| 546 | I'm more afraid of the idea of dying in a terrorist incident than they're afraid of dying. | 比起他们害怕死亡,我更害怕在恐怖事件中死亡的想法. |
| 547 | And that is the mapping that takes place. | 这就是正在发生的绘图。 |
| 548 | Again, you know, that's the way it works. | 再说一遍,你知道,这是它的工作方式。 |
| 549 | This is the associative machinery. | 这是联系机制。 |
| 550 | And one beautiful thing about it, it doesn't get stumped. | 一件美丽的事情, 它不会被砍断。 |
| 551 | It produces an answer to questions that it doesn't know how to answer. | 它产生一个答案 对于它不知道如何回答的问题。 |
| 552 | But it produces them by answering easier questions. | 但它通过回答更容易的问题来产生它们. |
| 553 | And a lot of our mental life is conducted in just this way. | 我们许多的心理生活都是以这种方式进行的。 |
| 554 | So let me complete the circle and talk a little bit about subjective confidence. | 因此,让我完成这个圈子,谈谈一些主观信心. |
| 555 | Subjective confidence, which is closely related to the probability of being correct, | 主观信心 与正确概率密切相关 |
| 556 | is actually not a judgment at all. | 其实根本不是判断。 |
| 557 | It is a feeling. | 这是一种感觉。 |
| 558 | It is a feeling that people have. | 这是人们的一种感觉。 |
| 559 | And I think we know what the origin of that feeling is. | 我想我们知道那种感觉的起源。 |
| 560 | And it is system one, if you will, assessing the fluency of its own processing, | 这是系统一,如果你愿意的话, 评估它自己处理的流畅度, |
| 561 | assessing the coherence of the story that it has created to deal with the current situation. | 评估它为处理当前局势所创造的故事的一致性。 |
| 562 | And if the story is coherent, confidence is high. | 如果故事是连贯的,那么信心是很高的。 |
| 563 | Now, this is disastrous in some ways, because you can make a very coherent story | 现在,这在某些方面是灾难性的, 因为你可以做一个非常连贯的故事 |
| 564 | out of very little information and out of information that is, in fact, not reliable. | 从很少的信息 和实际上不可靠的信息。 |
| 565 | The quality of the story depends very little on the quality and quantity of the information. | 故事的质量很少取决于信息的质量和数量. |
| 566 | So people can be very confident with very little reason. | 所以人们可以非常自信 没有什么理由。 |
| 567 | Confidence is therefore not a good diagnostic for when you can trust | 因此,当您能够信任时,信心并不是一个很好的诊断 |
| 568 | either yourself or somebody else. | 或你自己或别人。 |
| 569 | If you are to evaluate whether you can trust somebody with a lot of confidence, | 如果你要评价你能否信任一个很有信心的人 |
| 570 | that's not the way to do it. | 那样不行 |
| 571 | The way to do it is, as I was saying earlier, is to ask what environment have they been in | 正如我先前所说,这样做的方式是问他们所处的环境是什么 |
| 572 | and have they had an opportunity to learn its regularities. | 他们有机会学习它的规律。 |
| 573 | Subjective confidence is not a good indicator. | 主观信心不是一个好指标。 |
| 574 | So that's the story I could tell in about 45 minutes about the two systems. | 大约45分钟后我就能讲到这两个系统的故事。 |
| 575 | So let me remind you, they don't exist. | 让我提醒你,它们不存在。 |
| 576 | But I think you should feel free to think in those terms, because what you may be beginning to do | 但我觉得你应该自由思考 因为你可能开始做的事 |
| 577 | is you may be beginning to have an idea of the personalities of system one and system two. | 你可能开始对系统一和系统二的个性有了认识。 |
| 578 | This is ridiculous, but having an idea of those personalities will actually enable you to think | 这是荒谬的,但有一个想法 这些人格实际上 让你思考 |
| 579 | better about psychological events than if you just had a long list of unrelated phenomena. | 比起一长串无关现象 心理事件要好 |
| 580 | Those ideas, those personalities, they have a certain coherence, and they're worth something | 这些想法,那些人格, 他们有一定的一致性, 他们是值得的 |
| 581 | in the coin of being able to make judgments. | 能够做出判断 |
| 582 | I think we should open for questions. | 我认为我们应该开放提问。 |
| 583 | How fixed or plastic are the system one processes, and are there things like mindfulness | 一个系统是如何固定或塑胶的, 并且有类似注意的东西 |
| 584 | or other emotional regulation that have any effect? | 或者其他情绪调节 有任何效果? |
| 585 | As I have described it, system one can be updated in terms of content very readily. | 正如我所描述的,系统一可以很容易地从内容上加以更新。 |
| 586 | You can learn in one trial what is normal and what is not normal. | 你可以在一个试验中学习什么是正常的,什么是不正常的。 |
| 587 | What is very difficult to do is to get control over how it works, over the rules of its operation. | 很难做到的是控制它的运作方式,控制它的运作规则。 |
| 588 | I do not know of a lot of evidence that people, that system one can change, | 我不知道很多证据表明 人,系统之一可以改变, |
| 589 | unless you have acquired skills, which requires reinforced practice. | 除非你已经掌握了技能 这需要强化练习 |
| 590 | What you can do and what people clearly can do is you can educate your system two, | 你能做的和人们可以做的是 你可以教育你的系统二, |
| 591 | and you can educate and you can learn to recognize situations in which | 你可以接受教育,并学会识别在哪些情况下 |
| 592 | system two takes over and takes control of the reactions, thereby avoid some mistakes. | 系统二接管并控制反应,从而避免一些错误. |
| 593 | Can't be done too much, but if I don't sound optimistic about training system one, | 不能做太多 但如果我对训练系统不乐观 |
| 594 | it's because I'm not. | 因为我不是。 |
| 595 | Another question about training system one. | 另一个关于训练系统的问题 |
| 596 | You talked about reinforcement learning and the time constants and the immediacy | 你讲的是强化学习 时间常数和即时 |
| 597 | in building expertise, but for many of the practices that we have around software development, | 但对于我们围绕软件开发的许多做法, |
| 598 | the time constants are somewhat longer. | 时间常数长一些。 |
| 599 | In particular, you gave a counter example, which was your Australia-UK visit and the fact that a | 特别是,你举了一个反例,那就是你对澳大利亚-联合王国的访问,以及一个澳大利亚、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联合王国、联 |
| 600 | single incident with John predisposed you to that association. | 和约翰一起发生的一起事件 使你成为了那个协会的成员 |
| 601 | I wonder if there has there been any testing to see what time constants really play a role here? | 不知道有没有测试 看看什么时候常数 真正在这里发挥作用? |
| 602 | In terms of updating and learning associations, this is something that we can learn quite quickly. | 在更新和学习协会方面,这是我们可以很快学到的。 |
| 603 | You can be taught to be afraid of something without anything else happening. | 你可以学会害怕什么,没有其他事情发生。 |
| 604 | In that sense, system one associative memory can be updated, and you can | 从这个意义上说,系统一的关联记忆可以更新,你可以 |
| 605 | now be developing software expertise. | 现在正在开发软件专门知识。 |
| 606 | That is a somewhat different story, and it's more like learning how to be a chess master. | 这是一个有点不同的故事, 它更像是学习如何成为一名国际象棋大师。 |
| 607 | That takes a lot of experience and a lot of reinforcement, and it had better be effective | 这需要很多的经验和很多的强化, 它最好有效 |
| 608 | than learning how to do that. | 而不是学习如何做到这一点。 |
| 609 | In the software thing, the time is, to some extent, not a big problem because ultimately | 在软件方面,时间在某种程度上不是一个大问题,因为最终 |
| 610 | you are going to see it all together, the error you made and the correct solution. | 你会看到这一切, 你所犯的错误和正确的解决方案。 |
| 611 | Time is not a major factor. | 时间不是一个主要因素。 |
| 612 | In learning how to steer a tanker, that reinforcement is very slow, and it's a lot harder | 在学习如何驾驶油轮时,加固速度非常缓慢,而且难度很大 |
| 613 | to learn to do that than it is to learn to steer a smaller ship. | 学会这样做 比学会驾驶更小的船。 |
| 614 | This is a pretty broad question, so please take this whichever direction you like. | 这是一个相当宽广的问题, 所以请选择这个你喜欢的方向。 |
| 615 | I was just wondering how these systems come into play and how you see it in media and | 我只是想知道这些系统是如何发挥作用的 以及你如何看待媒体和 |
| 616 | advertising, and maybe I was thinking of how it's changed over time. | 广告,也许我在想 它是如何改变的时间。 |
| 617 | It's very clear that advertising is typically addressed to system one. | 非常明显的是,广告通常针对系统一. |
| 618 | It doesn't convey information for judgments. | 它不传递信息 用于判决。 |
| 619 | It moves your emotions and it creates associations. | 它能感动你的情绪 并产生关联 |
| 620 | That's what it is intended to do, and it's pretty effective. | 这就是它的本意,而且相当有效. |
| 621 | A lot of politics is addressed to system one, a lot of political messaging. | 许多政治都针对系统一,很多政治信息. |
| 622 | The influences of system one on activities, which are really important and we should be | 系统一对活动的影响,这些活动非常重要,我们应该 |
| 623 | thinking about, is pretty frightening. | 想想,是相当可怕的。 |
| 624 | One of my younger colleagues at Princeton has done studies on the effect of facial | 我在普林斯顿的一个年轻同事 研究过面部效应 |
| 625 | characteristics on political preferences, and it's utterly amazing. | 政治偏好的特点, 这是完全惊人的。 |
| 626 | You take 538 pairs of pictures of the two contestants for each congressional race, | 你为每场国会比赛 拍了538对两个选手的照片 |
| 627 | and you show those pairs of pictures to Princeton students for one tenth of a second, | 给普林斯顿的学生看一对照片 一秒钟 |
| 628 | and you ask which looks more competent. | 你问哪一个看起来更胜任。 |
| 629 | That predicts 70% of elections. | 这预测了70%的选举。 |
| 630 | So the impact of system one on the decisions we make, for example, how much to pay to an | 因此,系统一的影响 我们的决定,例如, 支付多少 |
| 631 | honesty box, that is something that we're really very rarely aware of, and it's much more than we | 诚实的盒子,这是我们非常 很少意识到的, 而且它远不止我们 |
| 632 | think. | 以为. |
| 633 | Although you say the system one and system two don't show up as specific structures, | 虽然你说系统一和系统二 不显示为特定的结构, |
| 634 | have there been functional MRI, diffusion spectral imaging, diffusion tensor imaging studies that | 是否有功能性核磁共振、扩散光谱成像、扩散拉伸成像研究 |
| 635 | highlight whether system one is more primal brain initial activation and system two is more | 强调系统一是否是更原始的大脑初始激活,系统二是否是更多 |
| 636 | neocortex? | 神经病? |
| 637 | Well, you know system one is extremely sophisticated, so it's not some part, that is in part why I don't | 嗯,你知道系统一是极其精密的, 所以它不是某个部分,部分 这就是为什么我不 |
| 638 | believe that there is any simple representation in the brain of those two systems, because what | 相信这两个系统的大脑中 有任何简单的表现 因为 |
| 639 | I've called system one operations by their characteristics include both innate responses | 我用系统一操作的特性称呼它 包括两个内在反应 |
| 640 | and highly skilled responses, and the whole representation of world knowledge is in system | 和高技能的对策,以及世界知识的整体表现在系统之中 |
| 641 | one. | 一个 |
| 642 | So it's hard to classify one as primitive, and I should add that system two, the reasoning | 所以很难将一个归类为原始的, 我应该加上系统二,推理 |
| 643 | system as it were, is not necessarily rational. | 原制度不一定合理。 |
| 644 | I mean system two knows what it knows. | 我的意思是系统二知道它知道什么。 |
| 645 | It knows | 它会知道 |
| 646 | what we know, and we don't know a lot. | 我们知道的,我们不知道很多。 |
| 647 | So it's not that system two is infallible and that all the | 所以不是说系统二是不可逆的 |
| 648 | mistakes come from system one. | 错误来自系统一。 |
| 649 | We make very significant mistakes when we think very seriously. | 当我们认真思考时,我们犯了非常重大的错误。 |
| 650 | So you mentioned that experts when making a long-term forecast, and they trust the intuition, | 你提到专家在做长期预测时 他们相信直觉 |
| 651 | they're often wrong, but there are still a lot of people who listen to them, so is it bad for the | 他们经常是错的,但是仍然有很多人听他们的话,所以对 |
| 652 | society in general that we listen to experts who may be just as wrong as we are, and should we be | 社会上,我们倾听那些 可能和我们一样错误的专家, 我们是否应该 |
| 653 | worried, should we try to do something? | 担心,我们该做些什么? |
| 654 | I think there is a very good reason for the demand for | 我认为有很好的理由要求 |
| 655 | experts, and I was referring to a particular book that you may want to read, or you may want to | 专家,我指的是一本你可能想读的书 或者你可能想读 |
| 656 | to look for the New Yorker review of that book. | 寻找纽约人对那本书的评论 |
| 657 | It's a book by Phil Tetlock on political judgment, | 这是菲尔·特洛克关于政治判断的书 |
| 658 | where he studied forecasts in the time range of 10-15 years of political forecast, and one of the | 他研究了10至15年政治预测时间范围内的预测, |
| 659 | interesting observations is who are the people that we like to listen to as pundits, and there | 有趣的观察是,谁是 我们喜欢倾听的人 作为专家,在那里 |
| 660 | are people with very high confidence who think they understand the world. | 是信心十足的人 他们认为他们了解世界 |
| 661 | Now they actually are | 现在他们其实是 |
| 662 | worse than chance. | 比机会还糟糕 |
| 663 | I mean they're worse than people who are more hesitant, but we want them, | 我的意思是他们比那些更犹豫的人更糟糕 但我们想要他们 |
| 664 | we need them, and so there is a real demand for overconfidence. | 我们需要他们,所以确实需要过度自信。 |
| 665 | So as you were going through all | 所以,当你经历所有 |
| 666 | the slides of the various illusions, by the time you came to the three figures on the screen, | 各种幻觉的幻灯片, 当你来到屏幕上的三个数字, |
| 667 | I guess I was expecting that okay there's something, so even though the figure on the | 我想,我想我期望,没关系 有一些东西,所以即使数字 |
| 668 | right looked bigger, I looked again and I was like okay they're the same, now was that system one or | 右看起来更大,我再次看, 我就像没事 他们是一样的,现在是系统之一或 |
| 669 | system two? | 二号系统? |
| 670 | Well that is clearly system two, and that is the way that we can learn to overcome | 嗯,这显然是第二系统, 这是我们可以学习克服的方法 |
| 671 | illusions, both visual and cognitive. | 幻觉 视觉和认知 |
| 672 | You still see it as one larger than the other, but you know | 你仍然认为它比另一个大,但你知道 |
| 673 | that when you see a display like that you shouldn't trust your eyes, and to a similar extent you can | 当你看到这样的展示 你不应该相信你的眼睛, 在同样程度上你可以 |
| 674 | recognize, you can recognize that you're in a situation where somebody is having too much | 认得,你可以认得 你的处境是 有人有太多 |
| 675 | effect on you, because she's very eloquent, but you know the content may not be there, | 因为她很有说服力 但内容可能不存在 |
| 676 | and so you force yourself to be skeptical. | 所以你强迫自己 怀疑。 |
| 677 | So is there any research to that effect that people who | 因此,是否有这方面的研究,即: |
| 678 | are aware, let's say for example, that advertising is going to have an emotional effect on them. | 例如,广告会对他们产生情感影响。 |
| 679 | Is there any risk, let's say if I'm aware that advertising is supposed to have an emotional | 有风险吗? 假设我知道广告应该有感情 |
| 680 | effect on me, activate system one, will I be better suited to sort of ignore those things? | 对我的影响,激活系统一, 我会更适合忽略那些东西吗? |
| 681 | I mean you certainly are going to ignore it better than if you didn't know it, but whether | 我的意思是,你肯定会 忽略它更好 如果你不知道,但是否 |
| 682 | you are capable of ignoring it altogether, that I'm much more skeptical about. | 你完全可以无视它, 我更怀疑。 |
| 683 | I mean the real | 我是说真的 |
| 684 | thing is not to expose yourself to it, because once you're exposed to it, it's going to affect you, | 事情不是暴露自己 因为它一旦你接触到它, 它会影响你, |
| 685 | and you know those effects are the cues in our world that we are not aware, that we're not aware | 你知道这些影响 是我们世界的提示 我们不知道,我们不知道 |
| 686 | can be extremely powerful. | 可能非常强大 |
| 687 | There is a whole line of study, it's not exactly to your point, | 有一整行的研究, 它不完全针对你的观点, |
| 688 | but I must tell you that story. | 但我必须告诉你这个故事。 |
| 689 | There is a whole line of studies on what happens to people when | 对人们的遭遇有一整套研究 |
| 690 | they're exposed to the idea of money, and for example, they perform one task and there is a | 他们暴露在金钱的观念之下 比如说,他们执行一个任务 |
| 691 | computer nearby, and on the computer there is a screensaver, and the screensaver are dollars | 电脑在附近 电脑上有一个屏幕保护器 屏幕保护器是美元 |
| 692 | floating in water, dollar bills floating in water. | 浮于水,元钞浮于水. |
| 693 | That makes you selfish, it makes you | 这让你自私,它让你 |
| 694 | reluctant to ask for the help of others, it makes you put your chair further away from the chairs | 不愿寻求别人的帮助,这让你把椅子离椅子更远 |
| 695 | of other people when you have to set up an interview situation. | 其他人,当你必须设置 面试的情况。 |
| 696 | It has effects on all | 这对大家都有影响 |
| 697 | sorts of behavior that people are completely unaware of, and the links are symbolic, and | 那种人们完全不知道的行为, 这些联系是象征性的, |
| 698 | you can be aware of that. | 你可以知道这一点。 |
| 699 | How can you resist it? | 你怎么能抗拒呢? |
| 700 | You know, we are exposed to money and it's going | 你知道,我们被暴露在金钱的面前,它去 |
| 701 | to have some effect. | 以产生某种效果。 |
| 702 | Now, if you're designing an organization, or if you're designing an | 现在,如果你在设计一个组织, 或者如果你在设计一个 |
| 703 | environment for people, you can create an environment that will remind people of money all | 环境,你可以创造环境 提醒人们的钱所有 |
| 704 | the time, or you can create an environment that will remind them of other things, and that will | 或者你可以创造一个环境 让他们想起其他事情 |
| 705 | control their behavior to some extent. | 在某种程度上控制他们的行为 |
| 706 | Although possibly not one of the big five in the personality | 虽然可能不是人格上的五大人物之一 |
| 707 | categories yet, have you developed any empirical testing that ranks people on a scale of one to | 你是否做过任何经验测试 将人排在一至二级 |
| 708 | two and shows where they fall in terms of default behaviors? | 并显示其默认行为? |
| 709 | Well, there is a relevant scale on the | 嗯,有一个相关的规模 |
| 710 | activity of system two, and the bat and ball question is actually a very, very good question, | 第二系统的活动 蝙蝠和球的问题其实是一个非常好的问题 |
| 711 | and there are several examples of this. | 这里有几个例子。 |
| 712 | My former colleague and postdoc, Shane Frederick, developed | 我前同事兼博士后肖恩·弗雷德里克 |
| 713 | that test. | 那个测试。 |
| 714 | It's called the cognitive reflection test, and the people who fail that item, that is, | 这叫做认知反射测试 和那些失败的人, 即, |
| 715 | who say ten cents, they are different in some interesting ways from the people who are better | 谁说十美分, 他们在某些有趣的方式 不同的人谁更好 |
| 716 | able to make it, and let me give you an example. | 让我举个例子。 |
| 717 | You ask them a standard Amazon question, so you've | 你问他们亚马逊的标准问题,所以你已经 |
| 718 | ordered a gift for yourself. | 自己订了礼物 |
| 719 | How much will you pay extra to have it tomorrow rather than the | 你明天要多付多少钱 而不是买 |
| 720 | second business day? | 第二个工作日? |
| 721 | And the people who fail this item are willing to pay more to get it tomorrow, | 而那些失败的人 愿意付出更多的钱来得到它明天, |
| 722 | so there are connections. | 所以有联系。 |
| 723 | What there isn't, and I'm very surprised there isn't, I don't know | 我感到非常惊讶的是,没有,我不知道 |
| 724 | their s**t. I don't know their s**t. I don't know their s**t. I don't know their s**t. I don't know | 我不认识他们 我不认识他们 我不认识他们 我不知道,你觉得呢? |
| 725 | should be tests of intelligence that are tests of system one. | 应该是对情报的测试 对系统一的测试 |
| 726 | That are tests of the richness and subtlety | 这是对丰富和微妙的考验 |
| 727 | of the model of the world that we have. | 我们的世界模式。 |
| 728 | All the intelligence tests that we have | 我们所有的智力测试 |
| 729 | are tests for system two. | 测试系统二。 |
| 730 | They're reasoning tests. | 他们是推理测试。 |
| 731 | We don't have, and I wish somebody would develop it, | 我们没有 我希望有人能开发它 |
| 732 | and I hope somebody will, | 我希望有人会 |
| 733 | but that we don't have at the moment. | 但我们现在没有 |
| 734 | Hi, so this is sort of a two-part question. | 嗨,所以这是一个有点 两个部分的问题。 |
| 735 | So do you find that people who are more system one | 所以,你有没有发现 人谁更系统一 |
| 736 | or system two prone for immediate judgments | 或系统二易于立即判决 |
| 737 | are more likely to be that way for long-term, | 更有可能是长期, |
| 738 | like larger decisions? | 像更大的决定? |
| 739 | I don't know enough about this. | 我对这件事了解不够 |
| 740 | We do know that self-control | 我们确实知道自我控制 |
| 741 | and the general activation of system two | 系统二的一般激活 |
| 742 | is an important personality characteristic, | 是一个重要的人格特征, |
| 743 | and it's present in a rudimentary form at age four, | 在四岁时,它以初级形式存在, |
| 744 | and has implications. | 并有影响。 |
| 745 | The ability, the test is called the marshmallow test, | 能力,测试叫做棉花糖测试, |
| 746 | and you can have one marshmallow now, | 你可以有一个棉花糖了, |
| 747 | or you can have two if you wait 15 minutes. | 或者你可以有两个 如果你等待15分钟。 |
| 748 | That predicts what they will do 20 years later | 预言他们20年后会做什么 |
| 749 | remarkably well, so there are things that are quite stable. | 非常好,所以有些事情是相当稳定的。 |
| 750 | And then the other part is that, | 然后另一个部分是, |
| 751 | have you encountered people who say | 你曾遇到过他们说: |
| 752 | they have to make a decision, | 他们必须做出决定, |
| 753 | and they're aware that their system one mind | 他们意识到他们的系统 一个头脑 |
| 754 | is telling them decision A, | 告诉他们决定A, |
| 755 | their system two mind is telling them decision B. | 他们的系统2 正在告诉他们决定B。 |
| 756 | What do people go with? | 人会怎样? |
| 757 | No, I don't know enough. | 不,我不够清楚。 |
| 758 | It will be so dependent on circumstances, | 这取决于情况 |
| 759 | whether you impose the system two judgment. | 无论你是否强制系统两个判断。 |
| 760 | In many cases, really, system two just endorses | 在许多情况下,真的,系统二刚刚认可 |
| 761 | what system one suggests. | 什么系统建议。 |
| 762 | That's the model that I have. | 这就是我的模型。 |
| 763 | Sometimes you can overturn it. | 有时候你可以推翻它。 |
| 764 | It's hard work. | 勤修众生. |
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