【中英】著名经济学家：资本主义已经终结—只是没人注意到
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Machines capable of training us to train them, to train us to train them to know us better, | 能够训练我们训练他们的机器 训练我们训练他们更了解我们 |
| 0:07 | win our trust, and then once they have our trust, automatically, without any human participation | 赢得我们的信任,然后一旦他们得到我们的信任, 自动,没有人类的参与 |
| 0:14 | in this, to input desires into our mind, and once we have those desires, to satiate those | 将欲望输入我们的脑海里 一旦我们有了这些欲望 就能满足这些欲望 |
| 0:23 | desires by selling us the stuff that we now desire, bypassing every market. | 想要卖掉我们现在想要的东西 绕过每个市场 |
| 0:27 | A closed system. | 一个封闭的系统。 |
| 0:28 | Well, that's no longer capitalism. | 那已经不是资本主义了 |
| 0:30 | Welcome to techno-fiddle-ism. | 欢迎加入科技小提琴 |
| 0:39 | Welcome to How the Light Gets In. | 欢迎光照进场 |
| 0:42 | My guest today is Yanis Varoufakis, former Greek finance minister and man who has written | 今天的客人是Yanis Varoufakis 前希腊财政部长和写过信的人 |
| 0:49 | many interesting things about the shape of the world economy and where it's going. | 关于世界经济的形状和走向,有许多有趣的事情。 |
展开字幕全文（357 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machines capable of training us to train them, to train us to train them to know us better, | 能够训练我们训练他们的机器 训练我们训练他们更了解我们 |
| 2 | win our trust, and then once they have our trust, automatically, without any human participation | 赢得我们的信任,然后一旦他们得到我们的信任, 自动,没有人类的参与 |
| 3 | in this, to input desires into our mind, and once we have those desires, to satiate those | 将欲望输入我们的脑海里 一旦我们有了这些欲望 就能满足这些欲望 |
| 4 | desires by selling us the stuff that we now desire, bypassing every market. | 想要卖掉我们现在想要的东西 绕过每个市场 |
| 5 | A closed system. | 一个封闭的系统。 |
| 6 | Well, that's no longer capitalism. | 那已经不是资本主义了 |
| 7 | Welcome to techno-fiddle-ism. | 欢迎加入科技小提琴 |
| 8 | Welcome to How the Light Gets In. | 欢迎光照进场 |
| 9 | My guest today is Yanis Varoufakis, former Greek finance minister and man who has written | 今天的客人是Yanis Varoufakis 前希腊财政部长和写过信的人 |
| 10 | many interesting things about the shape of the world economy and where it's going. | 关于世界经济的形状和走向,有许多有趣的事情。 |
| 11 | Welcome to you. | 欢迎光临 |
| 12 | Thanks for being with us. | 谢谢你陪我们 |
| 13 | Great being here. | 很高兴在这里。 |
| 14 | Let me ask you, in a roundabout way, getting a sense of where you are in terms of your | 我问你,在绕行的方式, 得到感知你在哪里 在你的 |
| 15 | economics, because in a rather surprising turn of events, you argue that capitalism | 经济学,因为在一个相当令人惊讶的转折中,你认为资本主义 |
| 16 | has actually ended, it's over, and it's been replaced with a form of techno-fiddle-ism. | 已经结束了,它结束了, 它被替换为 某种形式的技术-小提琴主义。 |
| 17 | Has capitalism really ended, and if so, it's strange that no one else seems to have noticed? | 资本主义真的结束了吗,如果结束了,那么奇怪的是,似乎没有人注意到? |
| 18 | It sounds a bit absurd, doesn't it, to have this hypothesis and to put it about, until | 这听起来有点荒谬,不是吗,有这个假设 并把它在,直到 |
| 19 | you home in on the actual hypothesis, which is that capital has triumphed. | 你回到了实际的假设, 那就是资本已经胜利了。 |
| 20 | Absolutely, it has steamrolled over organized labor, the trade unionist movement, social | 当然,它已经蒸发了 有组织的劳动, 工会运动,社会 |
| 21 | democracy, even liberalism. | 民主,甚至自由主义。 |
| 22 | And its triumph has been so complete that, like a toxic virus, it mutated into a new | 它的胜利是如此的完整, 像有毒的病毒一样, 它变异成一个新的 |
| 23 | form of capital. | 资本形式。 |
| 24 | That has never happened before in the history of humanity for the last 20,000 years. | 过去20 000年来,人类历史上从未发生过这种情况。 |
| 25 | Capital was always produced misofroduction, that is, you build a plow in order to produce | 资本总是被制造出错误的诱惑, 也就是说,你造一个犁来生产 |
| 26 | something else, wheat, or you build a steam engine to have textiles, or an industrial | 或者你制造蒸汽机来制造纺织品 或者工业品 |
| 27 | 来组装Teslas或BYDs什么的 | |
| 28 | But what lives in those laptops and tablets and smartphones of ours is a produced means, | 但我们的笔记本电脑、平板电脑和智能手机 都是一种生产手段, |
| 29 | it's a machine, but it doesn't produce anything except a remarkable exorbitant power to modify | 这是一台机器,但它除了 惊人的超强的修改能力之外,什么也没有产生 |
| 30 | our behavior. | 我们的行为。 |
| 31 | This is algorithmic capital, if you want to call it cloud capital, because supposedly | 这是算法资本, 如果你想把它叫做云资本, 因为据说 |
| 32 | it lives in it. | 它活在其中。 |
| 33 | Let me pick up on, sorry, cloud capital. | 让我接一下 抱歉 云之都 |
| 34 | But let me just end because it brings it together. | 但让我结束吧,因为它把事情结合在一起。 |
| 35 | What I'm saying is that we have a new form of capital, just like the steam engines of | 我想说的是,我们有一种新的资本形式 就像蒸汽机一样 |
| 36 | year, caused the major transformation from feudalism to capitalism. | 导致从封建主义到资本主义的重大转变 |
| 37 | We replaced with, we allowed this cloud capital, surreptitiously, without even noticing that | 我们用,我们让这个云之都 偷偷地,甚至没有注意到 |
| 38 | it happened, to replace markets with digital platforms, which are not markets, they look | 它发生,以数字平台取代市场, 这些不是市场,它们看起来 |
| 39 | like markets, but they're more like cloud fiefdoms, and to replace profit, capital is | 像市场, 但他们更像云层, 为了取代利润,资本是 |
| 40 | profit, with a form of ground rent, which is of course not ground rent, it's cloud rent. | 利润,带有一种形式的地租,当然不是地租,而是云租. |
| 41 | And this is a completely different game that we are finding ourselves in. | 这是一个完全不同的游戏 我们发现我们自己在。 |
| 42 | Well, let me pursue that line about cloud capital, as you put it in, you've sort of | 好吧,让我继续 关于云之都的台词, 当你把它放在,你有点 |
| 43 | given me a sense of what you mean, but I want to push you. | 让我感觉到你的意思 但我想推你 |
| 44 | How would you define cloud capital? | 你怎么定义云资本? |
| 45 | Machines, which are networked with one another, capable of training us to train them, to train | 能够训练我们训练他们 训练我们 |
| 46 | us to train them to know us better, win our trust, and then once they have our trust, | 我们训练他们更了解我们 赢得我们的信任 一旦他们得到我们的信任 |
| 47 | automatically, without any human participation in this, to input desires into our mind, | 在没有人参与的情况下 自动地将欲望输入我们的脑海 |
| 48 | and once we have those desires, to satiate those desires by selling us the stuff that | 一旦我们有了这些欲望 就能满足这些欲望 通过出售我们的东西 |
| 49 | we now desire, bypassing every market. | 我们现在渴望 绕过每个市场 |
| 50 | A closed system. | 一个封闭的系统。 |
| 51 | Well, that's no longer capitalism. | 那已经不是资本主义了 |
| 52 | Welcome to techno-feudalism. | 欢迎加入科技恐惧主义 |
| 53 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 54 | Well, let me talk about the feudalism part of it. | 让我谈谈封建主义的部分 |
| 55 | So a company owns every part of the market, is effectively what you're saying. | 所以,一个公司拥有市场的每一部分, 实际上是你说的。 |
| 56 | It doesn't own a market. | 它没有市场。 |
| 57 | It owns a fiefdom, which is not a market. | 它拥有一个领地,它不是一个市场。 |
| 58 | There's economic activity on that fiefdom. | 那片土地上有经济活动 |
| 59 | There is buying and there is selling, but it's not a market. | 有买有卖,但它不是一个市场。 |
| 60 | 想想amazon.com,罗杰。 | |
| 61 | I mean, there are thousands, millions of buyers, millions of sellers, but there is no degree | 我的意思是,有成千上万,数百万买家,数百万卖家, 但是没有学位 |
| 62 | of decentralization whatsoever. | 任何权力下放。 |
| 63 | In a sense, and I think somebody like you with your experience in politics and economics | 从某种意义上讲,我认为像你这样的人 具有你的政治和经济经验 |
| 64 | and so on will appreciate that, it resembles, at least from where I'm standing, the wet | 喜欢的,至少从我站的地方,湿的 |
| 65 | dream of the Soviet economic planners. | 苏联经济计划者的梦想 |
| 66 | What did they want? | 他们想要什么? |
| 67 | They wanted to replace the market with an algorithm. | 他们想用算法来取代市场 |
| 68 | They used pen and paper back then, cybernetics, you know, in the ministry, the gospel ministry, | 当时他们用钢笔和纸, 网络内科,你知道, 在部,福音部, |
| 69 | if you remember, in Moscow, in order to match producers and consumers outside the context | 如果你还记得,在莫斯科, 为了匹配生产者和消费者 在背景之外 |
| 70 | of the market. | 市场。 |
| 71 | Well, this is what Jeff Bezos' algorithm does. | 这就是杰夫·贝佐斯的算法 |
| 72 | When you are in amazon.com, you don't get to choose whose wares you're going to see. | 在amazon.com时,你无法选择你将要看到的什么东西. |
| 73 | The algorithm chooses that. | 算法选择了这一点。 |
| 74 | If you and I have tablets and we punch in, let's say, electric bicycles, we'd get different | 如果你和我有平板电脑 我们打进电动自行车 我们就不一样了 |
| 75 | vendors, you and I, because it all depends on the algorithm's capacity to predict what | 卖家,你和我, 因为这都取决于 算法的能力 预测什么 |
| 76 | is the maximum rent Bezos can make from the bicycle producer when Bezos matches particular | 是当Bezos特别匹配时,Bezos能够从自行车生产商那里获得的最大租金 |
| 77 | producers to us. | 我们的制作人。 |
| 78 | That is not a market. | 这不是市场。 |
| 79 | So they don't own a market. | 所以他们没有市场 |
| 80 | They own a cloud fiefdom, a digital fiefdom, and they collect ground rent or cloud rent | 他们拥有一个云域,一个数字域, 他们收集地面租金或云域租金 |
| 81 | up to 40% of the price of the electric bicycle. | 电动自行车价格最高可达40%. |
| 82 | That's not a market. | 这不是市场。 |
| 83 | Okay. | 摆 |
| 84 | Now, the terminology is really interesting in this because you're talking about feudalism, | 现在,术语 真正有趣的在这里 因为你谈论封建主义, |
| 85 | you're talking about a thief, you're talking about rent. | 你说的是小偷,你说的是房租 |
| 86 | This sounds like pre-capitalism almost. | 这听起来就像前资本主义。 |
| 87 | Is that really what you're saying? | 你真的这么说吗? |
| 88 | We're going back to some sort of medieval system? | 我们要回到某种中世纪系统? |
| 89 | No. | 没有 |
| 90 | We're going forward to something far worse than what we had. | 我们要面对比以前更糟糕的事情 |
| 91 | And I say this as a leftist critic of capitalism. | 我以资本主义左派批评者的身份这样说。 |
| 92 | What we now end up having, techno-feudalism, is something far worse. | 我们现在的结局是 技术恐惧主义 更糟糕的是 |
| 93 | It's a mistake to think that we're going back because there are huge differences between | 以为我们回去是错的,因为... |
| 94 | feudalism and what I call techno-feudalism. | 封建主义与我所说的科技-封建主义. |
| 95 | So for instance, Jeff Bezos was not born with a silver spoon in his mouth. | 举个例子,杰夫·贝佐斯不是生来嘴里有银勺的. |
| 96 | Feudal lords, the landed gentry, all they had to do to be feudal lords was to be born | 领主们,登陆的护卫们 他们要成为封建领主 所要做的就是诞生 |
| 97 | in the right family. | 在正确的家庭。 |
| 98 | Now, Jeff Bezos is a very smart man. | 现在,杰夫·贝佐斯是一个非常聪明的人。 |
| 99 | Whether you like him or not is another matter. | 无论你是否喜欢他都是另一回事 |
| 100 | He is a capitalist. | 他是一个资本家。 |
| 101 | He invests in cloud capital, huge quantities of money. | 他投资云资本,巨额资金. |
| 102 | The fact that most of it comes from a central bank or came from the central bank as part | 大部分来自中央银行或中央银行 |
| 103 | of quantitative easing, but that's another story, is neither here nor there. | 量化宽松,但这是另一个故事, 既不在这里,也不在那里。 |
| 104 | So it's a capitalist enterprise, but the form of capital that he's using is creating a new | 所以,这是一个资本主义企业, 但他使用的资本形式 是创造新的 |
| 105 | form of rent, which resembles feudal ground rent, but it is based on new, old singing | 类似封建地租的租金 但它是基于新的老歌 |
| 106 | or dancing machinery, capital goods. | 或者跳舞的机械,资本商品。 |
| 107 | OK. | 摆 |
| 108 | So what can be done about this? | 那么,可以怎么办呢? |
| 109 | What can be done to… are there positive proposals for tackling what you're talking | 我们能做的是... 有解决你所说的问题的积极建议 |
| 110 | about? | 关于? |
| 111 | I mean, nationalising big tech, I suppose, is something some people have certainly talked | 我的意思是,国有化 大技术,我想, 是一些人们肯定谈论 |
| 112 | about. | 有关。 |
| 113 | Is that the kind of thing you think should go? | 你觉得应该这样吗? |
| 114 | There are many different gradations of what can be done. | 有许多不同的等级,可以做什么。 |
| 115 | So because I'm a leftist, an un-reconstructed Marxist, as I'm sure you will say at some | 所以,因为我是一个左派, 一个未经重建的马克思主义者, 我敢肯定,你会说一些 |
| 116 | point or remind our audience, for me, the solution always is this, not the nationalisation | 或提醒我们的观众,对我来说, 解决办法总是这样, 而不是国有化 |
| 117 | because I have an antipathy towards the state, but the socialisation of apps, of algorithms. | 因为我对州有反感, 但应用的社会化,算法。 |
| 118 | So for instance, you know, why should taxi drivers subscribe to Uber and have so much | 比如说,出租车司机为什么要订阅Uber 拥有这么多 |
| 119 | value being taken away from them and sent to the Cayman Islands because this is where | 珍视被带走并送往开曼群岛,因为这里是 |
| 120 | it ends up? | 结果呢? |
| 121 | Why can't they be a cooperative using an application? | 为什么他们不能用申请做合作社? |
| 122 | Why can't the municipality in which we live or the region have an app instead of Airbnb | 为什么我们所在的市或地区不能有一个应用而不是Airbnb |
| 123 | so that the value stays within the community? | 使价值留在社区内? |
| 124 | Why can't the community decide the rules of this communal, socially owned Airbnb, | 为什么社区不能决定 这个公有的,社会拥有的Airbnb的规则, |
| 125 | the rules by which, you know, the renting out of apartments proceeds? | 租房的规矩是什么? |
| 126 | So that is, if you want, the left-wing socialist leaning my kind of solution. | 这就是说,如果你愿意的话,左翼社会主义者 倾向于我这种解决方案。 |
| 127 | But even at a much lower level of engagement, let's say that tomorrow the House of Commons | 但即使接触水平要低得多 不如说明天下议院 |
| 128 | in this country or, you know, whoever in the European Union, it's a maze there. | 在这个国家,或者,你知道,无论谁在欧盟, 这是一个迷宫在那里。 |
| 129 | Yeah, introduces a very simple rule that to operate in our jurisdiction, you have to allow | 是啊,引入了一个非常简单的规则, 在我们的管辖范围内运作, 你必须允许 |
| 130 | for interoperability. | 用于互操作性。 |
| 131 | What does that mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 132 | Let me give you an example. | 让我举个例子。 |
| 133 | I don't know about you, but when Elon Musk went haywire, I wanted to leave ex-Twitter. | 我不知道关于你,但当伊隆·穆斯克去干草时,我想离开前特沃特. |
| 134 | 但我不能离开Twitter。 | |
| 135 | I'm a prisoner because I have, you know, 1.2 million followers. | 我是个囚犯 因为我有120万追随者 |
| 136 | There are all forms of this, Blue Sky? | 蓝天,有各种形式吗? |
| 137 | Yes, and I went. | 对,我走了 |
| 138 | But in Blue Sky I had 10 followers. | 但在蓝天,我有10个追随者。 |
| 139 | 在Twitter上,我拥有120万。 | |
| 140 | Now interoperability would solve this problem because it would impose in the same way that | 现在,互操作性可以解决这个问题,因为它会以同样的方式强加 |
| 141 | once upon a time, remember with telecoms, they were forced by law to allow you to take | 有一次,用电讯记住, 他们被法律强迫让你服用 |
| 142 | a telephone number from one company to another to create competition. | 一个电话,从一个公司到另一个公司 创建竞争。 |
| 143 | Imagine if Twitter was forced, or ex was forced, if when I post something on Blue Sky to transmit | 想象一下,如果Twitter是被迫的,或者前夫是被迫的, 如果我在蓝天上张贴一些东西来传输 |
| 144 | to my followers in Twitter, that would be an amazing breakthrough in combating the exorbitant | 在推特上对我的追随者说, 这将是一个惊人的突破 在打击高额 |
| 145 | power of these technofuture lords. | 这些未来的技术领主的力量。 |
| 146 | So you can do anything from that degree of minimalist but important and substantial legislation | 所以,你可以做任何事情 从这种程度的最低限度 但重要和实质性的立法 |
| 147 | all the way to socializing the means of communication. | 一路实现交流方式的社会化. |
| 148 | But there's no sense in the contemporary politics that that's on the cards. | 但是在当代政治中,卡片上却没有任何意义. |
| 149 | I mean, if you look at Europe, but also, of course, in Trump's America, many of the people | 我的意思是,如果你看看欧洲, 当然,在特朗普的美国, 许多人 |
| 150 | who preside, the feudal lords, I suppose, with the barons within your system, are in | 我想封建的领主 和你的制度内的领主 |
| 151 | positions of strong political power as well as economic power. | 拥有强大的政治权力以及经济权力。 |
| 152 | So there's no prospect of this happening, is there? | 所以,没有发生这种情况的前景,是吗? |
| 153 | Oh, no, no, no. | 哦,不,不,没有。 |
| 154 | I would never concede to that. | 我永远不会承认这一点。 |
| 155 | It's not in the air. | 不在空中. 师曰. |
| 156 | But this is the beauty, the wild beauty of politics and of democratic politics. | 但这是政治与民主政治的美丽,野生的美丽. |
| 157 | We're here to have this debate. | 我们是来辩论的 |
| 158 | The first step towards overthrowing and overturning exorbitant, absolute power is to realize that | 推翻和推翻巨大绝对权力的第一步是认识到 |
| 159 | it exists, that you're subject to it, and then to agitate, and then to have this, to | 它的存在,你被它所支配, 然后激动,然后有这个, |
| 160 | do what we're doing now, and then to build a democratic process up so that you can take | 做我们现在做的,然后建立一个民主的过程 这样你就可以采取 |
| 161 | away that exorbitant privilege from the latter-day feudal lords and transfer it to where it belongs, | 离开末日封建主的高贵的特权,而移到属于它的地方; |
| 162 | to the many. | 对许多人来说 |
| 163 | But everything we know about Trump's first few months in power, for example, suggests | 但我们对特朗普执政的头几个月所了解的一切 都表明 |
| 164 | that is not the game he is playing. | 这不是他玩的游戏。 |
| 165 | He is there for four years. | 他在那里呆了四年了,他现在在那里 |
| 166 | He has very strong links with the people we've been talking about. | 他和我们讨论过的人有很强的联系 |
| 167 | And he's also playing numerous other economic games, of course, I mean, the kerfuffle over | 而且他还玩着许多其他的经济游戏, 当然,我的意思是, 烤肉饼结束 |
| 168 | tariffs. | 关税。 |
| 169 | What actually is your impression of the first Trump 100-plus days and its impact in that | 你对第一个特朗普100多天的印象是什么? |
| 170 | area? | 区域? |
| 171 | Well, on the one hand, like, I think, many of us, I'm appalled and I am mortified by | 嗯,一方面,像,我想,我们许多人, 我震惊,我感到羞愧 |
| 172 | this show of utter disregard for basic human decency, no doubt about that, the way that | 完全无视人类基本尊严的表演, 毫无疑问,这是 |
| 173 | Elon Musk walked into the federal government departments and essentially plugged his cloud | 伊隆·穆斯克走进联邦政府部门 基本上插上了他的云 |
| 174 | capital, what I call cloud capital, into the public cloud capital and essentially to usurp | 资本,我所说的云资本, 进入公共云资本 基本上篡夺 |
| 175 | all the data. | 所有的数据。 |
| 176 | It's a regime change that harks back to the mid-war period of the fascist takeover of | 这是政权的更迭,可以追溯到 法西斯接管的中战时期 |
| 177 | the states. | 各州 |
| 178 | You see it in that light. | 你从那道光中看到它。 |
| 179 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 180 | And, you know, the zig-highs are not accidents imitating art or something like that. | 而且,你知道,Zig高不是意外 模仿艺术或类似的东西。 |
| 181 | Having said that, I differ substantially from centrists, both of the centre-left and the | 尽管如此,我与中间派大相径庭。 |
| 182 | right, both in the United States and in the United Kingdom and also in the European Union, | 在美国、联合王国和欧洲联盟, |
| 183 | who dismiss the Trump-esting as a bunch of buffoons who don't know what they're doing. | 他们把特朗普作为一群不知所措的蠢货解雇了 |
| 184 | You asked me about tariffs or you mentioned tariffs. | 你问我关税,或者你提到关税。 |
| 185 | I see a very clear plan in what they are doing. | 我看到一个非常明确的计划 他们在做什么。 |
| 186 | I'm not saying it was going to work, but I think that it is highly irresponsible of critics | 我不是说它会成功 但我认为对批评者来说是极不负责任的 |
| 187 | of Trump to dismiss them as a bunch of idiots. | 特朗普把他们当白痴开除 |
| 188 | If you read their texts, if you listen to the smart people in the team, like Scott Besant, | 如果你读他们的短信, 如果你听团队中的聪明人, 像斯科特·贝桑特, |
| 189 | the US Treasury Secretary, there is a very clear analysis, which actually is not wrong, | 美国财政部长,有一个非常明确的分析, 实际上没有错, |
| 190 | regarding the imbalances, the gross imbalances of the world economy with the United States | 世界经济与美国的不平衡 |
| 191 | being at the centre of it. | 成为它的核心。 |
| 192 | And if you read their analysis of what they are trying to do, not of the means by which | 如果你读了他们的分析 他们试图做什么, 而不是用什么方法 |
| 193 | they are trying to achieve it, of what they are trying to do, I actually find myself | 他们试图达到这个目标, 他们想要做的事情, 我发现自己 |
| 194 | in agreement with them. | 同意他们的意见。 |
| 195 | So when they say that there is a clear and present danger that the dollar world, which | 因此,当他们说有 明确和现在的危险 美元世界, |
| 196 | is so inflated compared to the capacity of the United States economy to manufacture stuff, | 与美国经济的制造能力相比,它被夸大了 |
| 197 | this huge imbalance is a bubble waiting to burst. | 这种巨大的不平衡 是一个等待破裂的泡沫。 |
| 198 | And then when it bursts, it's not that China will overtake America or anything like that, | 而当它暴发的时候, 中国不会超越美国或任何类似的事情, |
| 199 | but we are all going to have a crisis that will make 2008 look like a walk in the park. | 但我们都会有一场危机 让2008年看起来像在公园散步 |
| 200 | They are right in that. | 他们是正确的。 |
| 201 | And that the world needs to be rebalanced. | 而世界需要重新平衡。 |
| 202 | They are right in that. | 他们是正确的。 |
| 203 | Whereas, you know, the Biden administration, the European Union, Kabal in Brussels, | 拜登政府、欧洲联盟、布鲁塞尔的卡巴尔 |
| 204 | Keir Starmer在这里,Rishi Sunak 在他们之前,他们没有任何有趣的说, | |
| 205 | nothing that is analytically pertinent about the growing dangerous imbalances in the world. | 对世界上日益严重的危险不平衡没有任何分析意义。 |
| 206 | The tragedy, of course, is that the people who are putting their finger on the wound | 悲剧当然是 那些用手指指着伤口的人 |
| 207 | that... | 那个... |
| 208 | Which you say is a real wound. | 你说这是个真正的伤口 |
| 209 | It is a real wound. | 这是一个真正的伤口。 |
| 210 | Are the ones who are proposing measures that are more likely than not to bring about, you | 那些提出更可能实现的措施的人吗? |
| 211 | know, the crisis that they are there warning us about. | 你知道,他们在那里的危机 警告我们。 |
| 212 | Well, tell us about that crisis, because what you're saying is, yes, there is a problem. | 好吧,告诉我们那个危机, 因为你说的是, 是的,有一个问题。 |
| 213 | Yes, they have a coherent plan, but you don't approve of the means. | 是的,他们有一个连贯的计划, 但你不赞成的手段。 |
| 214 | You think the means are wrong and probably destructive. | 你觉得手段是错的 很可能是破坏性的 |
| 215 | Is it the fact of imposing big tariffs, or is it simply the huge uncertainty there? | 是实行高额关税的事实,还是仅仅是那里巨大的不确定性? |
| 216 | Tariffs are irrelevant. | 关税无关紧要。 |
| 217 | They are a means to an end, even for them. | 它们是达到目的的手段,对他们来说也是如此。 |
| 218 | Maybe Trump loves tariffs, but the team around him, it's very clear that to them it is just | 也许特朗普喜欢关税,但身边的球队, 很清楚,对他们来说,这只是 |
| 219 | a weapon to terrorise everybody in order to get what they want. | 为了得到他们想要的 用来恐吓每个人的武器 |
| 220 | And what they want, let me be very clear and succinct here. | 他们想要的,让我在这里非常清楚和简洁。 |
| 221 | They want two things that sound contradictory, but they are not necessarily contradictory. | 他们想要两个听起来自相矛盾的东西,但它们不一定是自相矛盾的. |
| 222 | They can be, but they are not necessarily. | 它们可以,但不一定是。 |
| 223 | They want to devalue the dollar by 30% in order to shrink the American trade deficit | 为了缩小美国贸易逆差 他们想把美元贬值30% |
| 224 | and rebalance the world economy. | 重新平衡世界经济。 |
| 225 | That's not a bad idea. | 这主意不错 |
| 226 | But what they also want at the same time is to keep the exorbitant privilege of the US | 但他们同时想要的是 保持美国崇高的特权 |
| 227 | dollar. | 钱 |
| 228 | And that sounds incongruous, doesn't it? | 这听起来很不协调,不是吗? |
| 229 | You want to devalue the dollar, but to maintain its power. | 你想贬低美元的价值, 但保持它的力量。 |
| 230 | Now, the only way they can do that is by blackmailing the Japanese, for instance, who have $1.2 | 现在,他们唯一的办法就是勒索日本人 比如说,他们有1.2美元 |
| 231 | trillion of savings to get rid of half of them, to sell them in order to increase the | 数万亿储蓄,以除其半,卖之以增. |
| 232 | supply of dollars to reduce its price, but not to buy euros, not to buy the Chinese currency, | 提供美元来降低价格,但不购买欧元,不购买中国货币, |
| 233 | not to buy anything that could compete with the US dollar, and to buy instead long-term | 不购买任何可以与美元竞争的东西,而是购买长期 |
| 234 | or to bring the money to the United States. | 或者把钱带到美国 |
| 235 | Now, this is what they're using the tariffs for, at least the Trumpian team. | 这就是他们对特朗普队使用关税的原因 |
| 236 | They're using it in order to extract different things from different people. | 他们利用它从不同的人那里提取不同的东西. |
| 237 | From the Germans, for instance, they want to say, OK, if you want to have any degree | 比如德国人,他们想说,好吧 如果你想有任何学位的话 |
| 238 | of trade with us, you have to allow Basf and Siemens and Volkswagen to shift their manufacturing | 你必须让巴斯夫和西门子和大众公司 改变他们的生产 |
| 239 | plants to the United States. | 美国的工厂。 |
| 240 | From the French, they want other stuff. | 从法国,他们想要其他的东西。 |
| 241 | So they want this one-on-one bilateral divide-and-rule-based bargaining ground. | 因此,他们想要这种一对一的双边分歧和基于规则的谈判基础。 |
| 242 | And I very much fear that they will singularly fail to achieve that, especially given that | 我非常担心,他们将完全无法做到这一点,特别是鉴于 |
| 243 | China is not going to buy it. | 中国不会买的 |
| 244 | Well, China was what I was going to come on to immediately, because China holds a vast | 嗯,中国是我将要立即来到的, 因为中国拥有一个广阔的 |
| 245 | amount of dollar-denominated— | 美元金额 -- -- |
| 246 | Four and a half trillion. | 四五万亿. |
| 247 | —extraordinary amounts. | - 特别数额。 |
| 248 | And China has been, I would say, the big focus of tariffs, really. | 我想说,中国一直是关税的主要焦点。 |
| 249 | That's where the key ones have been, and the key ones have been lifted or suspended. | 关键部分就在那里,关键部分被取消或中止. |
| 250 | Is it going to work with China? | 与中原会合吗? |
| 251 | What effect is it going to have on that huge relationship between the two world's two biggest | 这对两个世界最大的 |
| 252 | economic powers? | 经济实力? |
| 253 | Well, China has been planning for a long time. | 中国已经计划了很久了 |
| 254 | They have seen this coming. | 他们已经预见到这种情况。 |
| 255 | Not necessarily for Trump, but remember, Trump is not that much of an outlier in American politics. | 对特朗普来说不一定,但记住,特朗普在美国政治中并不怎么出乎意料. |
| 256 | Remember when Biden came in? | 记得拜登进来的时候吗? |
| 257 | Many of us thought—me too, and I have to say erroneously—we thought that he was going | 我们中许多人也认为——我也不得不说错了——我们以为他会去 |
| 258 | to undo the new Cold War that Trump had started, and instead Biden turbocharged it. | 以解除特朗普发动的新冷战 代之以拜登用涡轮增压 |
| 259 | So let's not fall into the trap of thinking that, you know, if Trump loses the elections | 因此,让我们不要掉进陷阱 想,如果特朗普输了选举 |
| 260 | and in the midterms and then the Democrat comes in, this is not going to be reversed. | 而在中期, 然后民主党人进来, 这是不会逆转的。 |
| 261 | It's exactly like the Nixon shock in 1971. | 这与1971年的尼克松震荡完全相同. |
| 262 | Nixon went, then Carter came, exactly the same policy of the Nixon shock continued. | 尼克松去了,然后卡特来了,尼克松震荡的完全一样的政策仍在继续. |
| 263 | So we have to brace ourselves. | 所以我们必须站稳脚跟。 |
| 264 | The Chinese know that and have been bracing themselves. | 中国人知道这一点,一直在自责。 |
| 265 | And I think they've already oriented themselves towards creating, to put it bluntly, a new | 我认为他们已经倾向于创造, 直截了当地说,一个新的 |
| 266 | Bretton Woods amongst the bricks with associated or associate members from the United Arab | 布雷顿森林,与阿拉伯联合 |
| 267 | Emirates to Saudi Arabia, maybe to some European countries. | 对沙特阿拉伯的酋长国,也许对一些欧洲国家。 |
| 268 | And this is now, you know, they say they are being extremely conservative, the Chinese. | 现在,你知道,他们说,他们是极端保守的,中国人。 |
| 269 | They are not making big noises. | 他们不会大吵大闹的 |
| 270 | They are, you know, taking it slowly. | 他们,你知道,慢慢来。 |
| 271 | They are still waiting just in case Trump sees some degree of reason. | 他们还在等待 以防特朗普看到某种程度的理由 |
| 272 | They are not selling their American treasures. | 他们不卖他们的美国宝藏。 |
| 273 | They could do this. | 他们可以做到这一点。 |
| 274 | They are not doing that. | 他们不这样做。 |
| 275 | They don't want their currency to replace the dollar. | 他们不希望他们的货币取代美元. |
| 276 | But if pushed, they are going to turn the bricks into a new Bretton Woods. | 但是,如果被推了,他们会把砖头变成一个新的布雷顿森林。 |
| 277 | Because remember, Bretton Woods was a system whose purpose was to maintain in the center | 因为记住,布雷顿森林是一个系统 它的目的是维持在中心 |
| 278 | of the United States as a surplus country, because after the Second World War, America | 美国作为一个盈余国家,因为第二次世界大战之后,美国 |
| 279 | had a huge trade surplus with the rest of us, with the United States using its currency, | 与我们其他国家有着巨大的贸易顺差, 美国使用其货币, |
| 280 | the dollar, as an anchor for all our other currencies. | 美元,作为我们所有其他货币的锚。 |
| 281 | 这就是Bricks Plus的计划 | |
| 282 | It's not to create an alternative currency. | 这并不是要创造另一种货币. |
| 283 | It's to create a trading group, which is... | 是为了建立一个贸易集团,这就是... |
| 284 | A trading group still using the dollar. | 一个交易集团仍然使用美元。 |
| 285 | Self-sufficient. | 自在无量. |
| 286 | No. | 没有 |
| 287 | If pushed, they are going to replace it with a one. | 如果被推了,他们会用一个来代替它。 |
| 288 | They have the digital payment systems. | 他们有数字支付系统。 |
| 289 | They have the digital currency issued some years ago by the Chinese Central Bank. | 他们有中国中央银行几年前发行的数字货币. |
| 290 | Now there are about 200 million accounts, including foreign accounts, using this digital wallet. | 现在大约有2亿个账户,包括外国账户,使用这个数字钱包. |
| 291 | There is WeChat, an amazing application which you could have as long as you wanted to make payments in one. | 有WeChat, 一个惊人的应用程序,你可以拥有 只要你想要付款在一个。 |
| 292 | So the world seems to be moving towards a bifurcation, at least to very, very different agglomerations. | 因此,世界似乎正在走向两极分化, 至少在非常,非常不同的集合。 |
| 293 | What about Europe, Yanis? | 欧洲呢,亚尼斯? |
| 294 | I mean, your home, your area where you have been in government, of course, in the past. | 我的意思是,你的家,你所在的地区 你一直执政, 当然,在过去。 |
| 295 | What can Europe make of these challenges and opportunities that they've got? | 欧洲对这些挑战和机遇能做些什么呢? |
| 296 | Is it an opportunity as well as a challenge in terms of what you're talking about? | 就你所说的而言,这既是机会也是挑战吗? |
| 297 | It's a fantastic opportunity. | 这是一个奇妙的机会。 |
| 298 | One that we are certainly going to miss. | 我们一定会错过的 |
| 299 | Certainly. | 当然 |
| 300 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 301 | Because of the mishandling of the euro crisis. | 由于欧元危机处理不当. |
| 302 | The euro crisis was another opportunity to consolidate, to create a political union, which is essential. | 欧元危机是巩固和建立政治联盟的又一次机会,而政治联盟是必不可少的。 |
| 303 | Roger, we created a federal money without a federal treasury. | 罗杰,我们创造了一个联邦钱 没有联邦国库。 |
| 304 | It was the euro crisis following the Wall Street collapse gave us an opportunity to correct that. | 华尔街倒塌之后的欧元危机使我们有机会纠正这种情况。 |
| 305 | Instead, we did everything we could not to do it. | 相反,我们竭尽所能未能做到这一点。 |
| 306 | Angela Merkel had the political capital to give a speech and say, | 安吉拉·默克尔有政治资本 发表演讲并说, |
| 307 | guys, girls, this is the time for us to create a federal Europe. | 伙计们,姑娘们,现在是我们创造联邦欧洲的时候了。 |
| 308 | Fiscal and monetary union. | 财政和货币联盟。 |
| 309 | Either you do away with the federal money or you create a federal treasury. | 要么你放弃联邦钱 要么你建立联邦国库 |
| 310 | And if you're going to create a federal treasury, you might as well do it democratically, | 如果你要建立一个联邦国库, 你还是民主地去做, |
| 311 | so that you have a democratic legitimacy for imposing taxes, for borrowing on behalf of everyone. | 这样你就能有民主的合法性 来征收税收 代表每个人借贷 |
| 312 | And we didn't do that. | 我们没有这样做。 |
| 313 | And now you can see the political fragmentation. | 现在你可以看到政治分裂。 |
| 314 | You know, Emmanuel Macron is a lame duck president. | 你知道,埃马纽埃尔·麦克龙是一个跛脚的鸭子总裁。 |
| 315 | Goodness knows what will happen in the next presidential election, but whatever happens, | 天晓得下届总统选举会发生什么事 但不管发生什么 |
| 316 | you know, France is not going to have a government that is capable of answering these questions. | 法国政府不会回答这些问题的 |
| 317 | And Germany? | 德国呢? |
| 318 | Germany is gone. | 德国走了 |
| 319 | It's deindustrializing fast. | 其去工业化速. |
| 320 | It is now moving from being a fiscally conservative place to a fiscally irresponsible place. | 它现在正在从财政保守的地方转向财政不负责任的地方。 |
| 321 | They shouldn't have got rid of the Black Zero. | 他们不该除掉黑零号的 |
| 322 | Not for that reason. | 不为此故. |
| 323 | Not in order to buy weaponry, which we really neither need nor want. | 不是为了购买武器,我们既不需要也不想要武器。 |
| 324 | Neither need nor want? | 既不需要也不需要吗? |
| 325 | Neither need nor want. | 既无所求亦无所求. |
| 326 | This idea that the tragedy which is unfolding in Ukraine | 乌克兰正在发生的悲剧 |
| 327 | is a reason for us to replace Volkswagen plants with Rheinmetall plants producing leopard tanks, | 我们用Rheinmetall生产豹式罐体的工厂 来取代大众工厂 |
| 328 | which even if you go to war, they are completely useless, as the Ukraine war has proven. | 即使你参战,它们也毫无用处,乌克兰战争已经证明。 |
| 329 | But the only reason why they are doing it is because they need to replace, | 但他们这样做的唯一原因是 他们需要替换, |
| 330 | you know, Volkswagen cannot sell cars. | 大众汽车不能卖车 |
| 331 | So now we have to buy leopard tanks that we neither need nor want, I insist on this. | 因此,现在我们必须购买豹式坦克,这些坦克既不需要也不需要,我坚持这样做。 |
| 332 | But that's another conversation. | 但这是另一个谈话。 |
| 333 | The thing is that the mishandling of the euro crisis led to a political paralysis, | 问题是欧元危机处理不当导致政治瘫痪, |
| 334 | which makes this conversation impossible. | 这使得这个谈话不可能。 |
| 335 | They're not having it in Brussels. | 他们不会在布鲁塞尔买的 |
| 336 | You know, they simply come out with these ridiculous military Keynesian programs. | 你知道,他们只是出来 这些荒谬的军事凯恩斯主义程序。 |
| 337 | Before that, remember, it was a Green Deal. | 在此之前,请记住,这是绿色协议。 |
| 338 | What happened to that one trillion euros that was going to be spent on the Green Deal? | 花在绿色协议上的一万亿欧元呢? |
| 339 | It never existed. | 它从来没有存在。 |
| 340 | Because, you know, after the Wall Street collapse and the euro crisis, | 因为,你知道,在华尔街倒闭和欧元危机之后, |
| 341 | all you get from Brussels is smoke and mirrors. | 从布鲁塞尔得到的只是烟雾和镜子 |
| 342 | And with all this analysis, Yanis, yourself, you are formally in government. | 有了这些分析,亚尼斯,你自己, 你正式进入政府。 |
| 343 | You have, by your book and for everything else, you have some answers you believe in. | 你有,根据你的书 和其他一切, 你有一些答案 你相信。 |
| 344 | Would you yourself personally go back into politics? | 你个人会重返政坛吗? |
| 345 | I am in politics. | 我从政 |
| 346 | I'm heading a political party in Greece, a small political party in Greece. | 我领导希腊的一个政党,希腊的一个小政党. |
| 347 | We are active in places like Germany. | 我们活跃在德国这样的地方。 |
| 348 | We are active in Italy. | 我们活跃在意大利。 |
| 349 | Next month, I'm going to Oslo for the election campaign there | 下个月我去奥斯陆参加竞选 |
| 350 | in view of the elections in September. | 鉴于9月的选举。 |
| 351 | I never left politics. | 我从来没有离开政治。 |
| 352 | As Tony Benn once said, I left parliament in order to become more engaged in politics. | 正如托尼·贝恩曾经说过的那样,我离开议会是为了更多地参与政治. |
| 353 | And you come to places like this and festivals like this? | 你来到这样的地方 和这样的节日? |
| 354 | I need to have some fun. | 我需要一些乐趣。 |
| 355 | That is very fakis. | 这是非常法基斯。 |
| 356 | Thank you very much for being with us. | 非常感谢你和我们在一起。 |
| 357 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
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