纳瓦尔：如何不靠运气致富？（完整版）
共 2 集
剧集目录
| 集 | 标题 | 时长 |
|---|---|---|
| P1 | 纳瓦尔：如何不靠运气致富？（完整版） 上 | 1:50:46 |
| P2 | 纳瓦尔：如何不靠运气致富？（完整版） 下 | 1:45:29 |
P1 · 纳瓦尔：如何不靠运气致富？（完整版） p01 上 (P1)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Hey, this is Nivi. | 嘿,这是尼维。 |
| 0:01 | You're listening to the Nival podcast. | 你听的是尼瓦尔播客 |
| 0:03 | This is one giant megisode that collects every episode we've done on getting rich. | 这是一个巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨 |
| 0:09 | All of it based on his tweetstorm of how to get rich without getting lucky. | 所有这一切都基于他的推特风暴 如何发财而不走运。 |
| 0:14 | I've collected them all here because we're going to switch topics to the new topic of happiness on the next episode. | 我把它们都收集到这里,因为我们要把话题切换到下一集的幸福新话题. |
| 0:21 | We've published one of these giant megasodes before, but this one's even bigger. | 我们以前出版过这些巨型集, 但这个更大。 |
| 0:25 | It's about three and a half hours long. | 全长约3个半小时. |
| 0:28 | It covers all the tweets from the how to get rich tweetstorm, plus all the Q&A that we did after that, | 它覆盖了所有的推特 如何获得丰富的推特暴风, 加上所有我们做 之后的QQA, |
| 0:34 | plus 10 minutes of bonus material at the very end that we've never released. | 加上10分钟的奖金 我们从来没有发布过。 |
| 0:40 | The overall sound quality of this megisode improves a lot after the first hour. | 这个megisode的整体音质在第一个小时后大为改善. |
展开字幕全文（2317 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hey, this is Nivi. | 嘿,这是尼维。 |
| 2 | You're listening to the Nival podcast. | 你听的是尼瓦尔播客 |
| 3 | This is one giant megisode that collects every episode we've done on getting rich. | 这是一个巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨型巨 |
| 4 | All of it based on his tweetstorm of how to get rich without getting lucky. | 所有这一切都基于他的推特风暴 如何发财而不走运。 |
| 5 | I've collected them all here because we're going to switch topics to the new topic of happiness on the next episode. | 我把它们都收集到这里,因为我们要把话题切换到下一集的幸福新话题. |
| 6 | We've published one of these giant megasodes before, but this one's even bigger. | 我们以前出版过这些巨型集, 但这个更大。 |
| 7 | It's about three and a half hours long. | 全长约3个半小时. |
| 8 | It covers all the tweets from the how to get rich tweetstorm, plus all the Q&A that we did after that, | 它覆盖了所有的推特 如何获得丰富的推特暴风, 加上所有我们做 之后的QQA, |
| 9 | plus 10 minutes of bonus material at the very end that we've never released. | 加上10分钟的奖金 我们从来没有发布过。 |
| 10 | The overall sound quality of this megisode improves a lot after the first hour. | 这个megisode的整体音质在第一个小时后大为改善. |
| 11 | You can find a link to a clean transcript in the show notes or if you go to the website nav.al. | 您可以在节目笔记中找到与干净的笔录的链接,或者如果前往网站nav.al. |
| 12 | There's no dot com at the end. | 结尾没有点com. |
| 13 | I hope you enjoy. | 我希望你喜欢。 |
| 14 | You probably know Nival from his Twitter account, | 你可能知道他的推特账号上的尼瓦尔 |
| 15 | and we're going to be talking about his epic tweetstorm on how to get rich without getting lucky. | 我们将要谈论他的史诗般的推特风暴 如何在不走运的情况下发财。 |
| 16 | We're going to go through most of the tweets in detail, | 我们要详细浏览大多数的微博 |
| 17 | give Nival a chance to expand on them and just generally riff on the topic. | 给尼瓦尔一个扩展的机会 并且只是一般地说,这个话题。 |
| 18 | He'll probably throw in some ideas that he hasn't even published before. | 他可能会提出一些他以前没有发表过的想法. |
| 19 | He's also the co-founder of AngelList and Opinions. | 他也是"天使列表和观点"的联合创始人. |
| 20 | He's a prolific tech investor in companies like Twitter, Uber, and many more. | 他是微博,Uber等公司的大量技术投资者,还有更多公司. |
| 21 | And I'm the co-founder of AngelList with Nival, | 我是天使列表的创始人与尼瓦尔, |
| 22 | 我也曾与他共同撰写了Venture Hacks博客。 | |
| 23 | Yeah, the how to get rich tweetstorm definitely hit a nerve. | 是啊,如何获得丰富的微博风暴 肯定打击了神经。 |
| 24 | A lot of people say it was helpful to reach across aisles, | 很多人都说走过过走廊很有帮助 |
| 25 | and people outside of the tech industry, people in all walks of life, | 以及科技行业以外的人 以及各行各业的人 |
| 26 | people do want to know how to solve their money problems. | 人们确实想知道如何解决他们的金钱问题。 |
| 27 | And everyone vaguely knows that they want to be wealthy, | 每个人都模糊地知道 他们想成为富有, |
| 28 | but they don't have a good set of principles to do it by. | 但他们没有一套好的原则来做到这一点。 |
| 29 | What's the difference between wealth, money, and status? | 财富,金钱,地位有何区别? |
| 30 | Wealth is the thing that you really want. | 财富是你想要的 |
| 31 | Wealth is assets that earn while you sleep. | 财富是睡觉时赚的钱 |
| 32 | Wealth is the factory, the robots that's cranking out things. | 财富是工厂, 机器人在制造事情。 |
| 33 | Wealth is the computer program that's running at night that's serving other customers. | 财富是晚上运行的计算机程序,为其他客户服务. |
| 34 | Wealth is even money in the bank | 财富甚至银行的钱 |
| 35 | that is being reinvested into other assets and into other businesses. | 正在重新投资于其他资产和其他企业。 |
| 36 | Even a house can be a form of wealth because you can rent it out, | 即使是一栋房子也可以是一种财富 因为你可以把它租出去 |
| 37 | although that's probably a lower use of productivity in the land | 虽然这大概是 生产力在土地的低用 |
| 38 | than actually doing some commercial enterprise. | 比实际做一些商业企业。 |
| 39 | So my definition of wealth is much more businesses and assets | 所以我对财富的定义是 更多的企业和资产 |
| 40 | that can earn while you sleep. | 可以在你睡觉的时候挣钱 |
| 41 | But really the reason you want wealth is because it buys you freedom. | 但你真正想要财富的原因是 因为它能给你带来自由 |
| 42 | So you don't have to wear a tie like a collar around your neck. | 所以你不必在脖子上戴领带 |
| 43 | So you don't have to wake up at 7 a.m. | 所以你不必在早上7点醒来 |
| 44 | and rush to work and sit and commute traffic. | 急忙工作,坐着坐着,通勤 |
| 45 | So you don't have to waste away your entire life | 所以你不用浪费一辈子 |
| 46 | grinding all the productive hours into a way to a soulless job that doesn't fulfill you. | 将所有生产时间 磨成一个没有灵魂的工作 不满足你。 |
| 47 | So the purpose of wealth is freedom. | 因此财富的目的就是自由. |
| 48 | It's nothing more than that. | 何等为余. |
| 49 | It's not to buy fur coats or drive Ferraris or sail yachts | 不是买毛衣 开法拉利或帆船 |
| 50 | or jet around the world near Gulf Stream. | 或喷气机环绕世界 在海湾流附近。 |
| 51 | That stuff gets really boring and really stupid really fast. | 那些东西变得真的很无聊 真的很愚蠢 非常快。 |
| 52 | It's really just so that you are your own sovereign individual. | 这真的只是为了让你成为你自己的君主 |
| 53 | You're not going to get that unless you really want it. | 除非你真的想要 否则你不会得到的 |
| 54 | And the entire world wants it. | 整个世界都想要它。 |
| 55 | And the entire world is working hard at it. | 全世界都在为此努力工作。 |
| 56 | And to some extent it is competitive. | 在某种程度上,它具有竞争力。 |
| 57 | It's a positive sum game, but there are competitive elements to it | 这是一个正和的游戏,但有竞争因素 |
| 58 | because there's a finite amount of resources right now in society | 因为现在社会上的资源有限 |
| 59 | and to get the resources to do what you want | 并获得资源 做你想做的 |
| 60 | you have to stand out. | 你必须突出。 |
| 61 | Money is how we transfer wealth. | 金钱是我们转移财富的方式。 |
| 62 | Money is social credits. | 金钱是社会信用. |
| 63 | It is the ability to have credits and debits on other people's time. | 能够借记他人时间的贷项和借项。 |
| 64 | If I do my job right, if I create value for society, | 如果我做好我的工作, 如果我为社会创造价值, |
| 65 | society says, oh, thank you. | 社会说,哦,谢谢你。 |
| 66 | We owe you something in the future for the work that you did in the past. | 我们欠你一些东西 未来你的工作在过去。 |
| 67 | Here's a little IOU. | 这里有一个小井。 |
| 68 | Let's call that money. | 让我们叫钱。 |
| 69 | And that money gets debased because people steal the IOUs. | 那笔钱因为别人偷IOU而变得不值钱 |
| 70 | The government prints extra IOUs. | 政府额外印制IOU. |
| 71 | People renege on their IOUs. | 人们在他们的IOU上叛逆。 |
| 72 | But really what money is trying to be is trying to be a reliable IOU from society | 但实际上钱是想成为 一个可靠的IOU从社会。 |
| 73 | that you are owed something for something you | 你欠你的东西 |
| 74 | or someone who gave you the money did in the past. | 或是过去给你钱的人 |
| 75 | And we can transfer these IOUs around. | 我们能把这些井转过来 |
| 76 | So really money is how we transfer wealth. | 所以,真的金钱是我们如何转移财富的。 |
| 77 | There are fundamentally two huge games in life that people play. | 生活中基本上有两个巨大的游戏,人们玩。 |
| 78 | One is the money game because money is not going to solve all your problems, | 一个是金钱游戏 因为金钱不会解决你所有的问题 |
| 79 | but it's going to solve all your money problems. | 但这能解决你所有的钱问题 |
| 80 | So I think that people know that. | 所以我认为人们知道这一点。 |
| 81 | They realize that they want to make money. | 他们意识到他们想赚钱。 |
| 82 | But at the same time, many of them deep down believe that they can't make it. | 但与此同时,许多内心深处的人认为他们无法成功. |
| 83 | They don't want any wealth creation to happen. | 他们不希望任何财富创造发生. |
| 84 | So they virtue signal by attacking the whole enterprise by saying, | 因此,他们通过攻击整个企业来发出美德信号, |
| 85 | well, making money is evil. | 好吧,赚钱是邪恶的。 |
| 86 | You shouldn't do it, blah, blah, blah. | 你不应该这样做,等等,等等,等等。 |
| 87 | But what they're trying to do is they're actually playing the other game, | 但是他们想做的是 他们真的在玩另一个游戏 |
| 88 | which is a status game. | 这是一个状态游戏。 |
| 89 | They're trying to be high status in the eyes of other people watching by saying, | 他们试图在别人的眼中高居一等, |
| 90 | well, I don't need money. | 我不需要钱 |
| 91 | We don't want money. | 我们不想要钱。 |
| 92 | And then status is just your ranking in the social hierarchy. | 然后,地位只是你 排名在社会等级。 |
| 93 | So wealth is not a zero-sum game. | 所以财富不是零和游戏。 |
| 94 | Everybody in the world can have a house. | 世界上每个人都可以有房子。 |
| 95 | Because you have a house doesn't take away from my ability to have a house. | 因为你有房子 也不能剥夺我拥有房子的能力 |
| 96 | If anything, the more houses that are built, the easier it becomes to build houses. | 如果有什么,建造房屋越多,建造房屋就越容易. |
| 97 | The more we know about building houses and just the more people that can have houses. | 我们对建造房屋的了解越多,拥有房屋的人就越多. |
| 98 | So wealth is a very positive sum game. | 所以财富是一个非常积极的总和游戏。 |
| 99 | We create things together. | 我们一起创造东西。 |
| 100 | We're starting this endeavor to create this hopefully piece of art that explains | 我们开始努力创造希望的艺术 |
| 101 | what we're doing. | 我们在做什么。 |
| 102 | At the end of it, something brand new will be created. | 最后,将创造出全新的东西。 |
| 103 | It's a positive sum game. | 现成正和游戏. |
| 104 | Status, on the other hand, is a zero-sum game. | 而地位则是一种零和游戏. |
| 105 | It's a very old game. | 这是一个非常古老的游戏。 |
| 106 | We've been playing it since Monkey Tribes. | 我们从猴子部落就开始玩了 |
| 107 | And it's hierarchical. | 而分等级. |
| 108 | Who's number one? | 谁是第一? |
| 109 | Who's number two? | 谁是二号? |
| 110 | Who's number three? | 谁是三号? |
| 111 | And for number three to move to number two, number two has to move out of that slot. | 三号移动到二号,二号必须离开那个位置。 |
| 112 | So status is zero-sum game. | 所以状态是零和游戏. |
| 113 | Holotix is an example of a status game. | Holotix是一个状态游戏的例子. |
| 114 | Even sports is an example of a status game. | 甚至体育也是状态游戏的典范. |
| 115 | To be the winner, there must be a loser. | 为胜必有败者. |
| 116 | I don't fundamentally love status games. | 我根本不喜欢状态游戏 |
| 117 | They play an important role in our society. | 他们在我们的社会中发挥着重要作用。 |
| 118 | So we figure out who's in charge. | 所以我们知道谁负责了 |
| 119 | But fundamentally, you play them because they're a necessary evil. | 但从根本上来说,你玩它们是因为它们是必然的邪恶. |
| 120 | The problem is, on an evolutionary basis, like if you go back thousands of years, status | 问题是,在进化的基础上, 就像你回到几千年前,状态 |
| 121 | is a much better predictor of survival than wealth is. | 比财富更能预测生存 |
| 122 | You couldn't have wealth before the farming age, before farmers, because you couldn't | 在农耕时代之前,在农民之前,你不能拥有财富,因为你不能 |
| 123 | store things. | 存储东西。 |
| 124 | Hunter-gatherers carried everything on their backs. | 猎杀者背负一切. |
| 125 | So hunter-gatherers lived entirely in status-based societies. | 所以狩猎采集者完全生活在基于地位的社会中. |
| 126 | Farmers started going to wealth-based societies. | 农民开始走向以财富为基础的社会。 |
| 127 | And the modern industrial economies are much more heavily wealth-based societies. | 而现代工业经济则是更重的财富型社会. |
| 128 | But there's always a subtle competition going on between status and wealth. | 但地位和财富之间总是有微妙的竞争. |
| 129 | For example, when journalists attack rich people or attack the technology industry, | 例如,当记者攻击富人或攻击技术产业时, |
| 130 | they're really bidding for status. | 他们真的在争取地位 |
| 131 | They're saying, no, the people are more important, and I, the journalist, represent the people. | 他们说,不,人民更重要,我,记者,代表人民. |
| 132 | And therefore, I am more important. | 因此,我更为重要。 |
| 133 | The problem is that by playing these status games, to win a status game, you have to put | 问题是,通过这些状态游戏, 要赢得状态游戏, 你必须设置 |
| 134 | somebody else down. | 别人下来。 |
| 135 | That's why you should avoid status games in your life, because they make you into an angry, | 这就是为什么你应该避免 状态游戏在你的生活中, 因为他们让你生气, |
| 136 | combative person. | 战士 |
| 137 | You're always fighting to put other people down, to put yourself and the people that | 你总是在努力把其他人放下来 把你自己和那些人 |
| 138 | you like up. | 你喜欢起来。 |
| 139 | And they're always going to exist. | 他们总是会存在。 |
| 140 | There's no way around it. | 无边法界. |
| 141 | But just realize that most of the times, when you're trying to create wealth, you're actually | 但只要意识到大多数时候, 当你试图创造财富, 你实际上 |
| 142 | getting attacked by someone else, and they're trying to look like a goody-two-shoes. | 被别人袭击, 他们试图看起来像一个好双鞋。 |
| 143 | But really, what they're doing is they're trying to up their own status at your expense. | 但实际上,他们正在做的是 他们试图提高自己的地位 以你为代价。 |
| 144 | They're just playing a different game, and it's a worse game. | 他们只是玩不同的游戏,这更糟糕. |
| 145 | It's a zero-sum game instead of a positive-sum game. | 是零和游戏,而不是正和游戏. |
| 146 | One thing you mentioned before the interview that stuck with me was the idea that you think | 采访前你提到的 坚持我的想法 |
| 147 | everyone can become rich. | 人人都会发财 |
| 148 | And that perhaps some of the ways of getting rich or the idea of wealth is vilified by | 也许一些发财的方式 或财富的想法被诽谤 |
| 149 | some people in other countries, say. | 有些人在其他国家,比如说。 |
| 150 | Do you want to expand on that a little bit? | 你想再多说一点吗? |
| 151 | Yeah, I think there's this notion that making money is evil, right? | 是的,我想有这样的观念 赚钱是邪恶的,对不对? |
| 152 | It's rooted all the way back down to money's a root of all evil. | 其根遍下至财为一切恶根. |
| 153 | People think that the bankers steal our money. | 人们以为银行家偷了我们的钱 |
| 154 | And it's somewhat true in that in a lot of the world, there's a lot of theft going on | 在世界上很多地方 有很多盗窃事件 |
| 155 | all the time. | 所有的时间。 |
| 156 | The history of the world in some sense is this predator-prey relationship between makers | 从某种意义上说,世界的历史是 制造者之间的掠夺者与猎物的关系 |
| 157 | and takers. | 和摄取者。 |
| 158 | There are people who go out and create things and build things and work hard on things, | 有人出去创造东西 建造东西 努力工作 |
| 159 | and then there are people who come along and take with a sword or a gun or taxes or crony | 然后有人会带着剑、枪、税、裙 |
| 160 | capitalism or communism or what have you. | 资本主义或共产主义 或者你有什么。 |
| 161 | There's all these different methods to steal. | 偷东西的方法各有不同 |
| 162 | Even in nature, there are more parasites than there are non-parasitical organisms. | 即使在自然界,寄生虫也多于非寄生生物. |
| 163 | You have a ton of parasites in you who are living off of you, and the better ones are | 你体内有一吨寄生虫 依靠你生活 最好的是 |
| 164 | symbiotic or giving something back, but there are a lot that are just taking. | 共生或还原的东西, 但有很多只是取。 |
| 165 | That's just the nature of how any complex system is built. | 这就是任何复杂系统是如何构建的。 |
| 166 | But what I am focused on is true wealth creation. | 但我所关注的是真正的财富创造。 |
| 167 | It's not about taking money. | 这不是拿钱。 |
| 168 | It's not about taking something from somebody else, but it's from creating abundance. | 这不是取别人的东西, 而是创造丰产。 |
| 169 | Obviously, there's not a finite number of jobs or a finite amount of wealth. | 显然,没有数量有限的工作或数量有限的财富. |
| 170 | Otherwise, we would still be sitting around in caves figuring out how to divide a piece | 否则,我们仍会坐在洞穴里 研究如何分割一块 |
| 171 | of the firewood and the occasional dead deer. | 木柴和偶尔死去的鹿。 |
| 172 | So most of the wealth and civilization, in fact, not most, all of it has been created. | 因此,大部分的财富和文明,实际上,不是大多数,都是创造出来的. |
| 173 | And it got created from somewhere. | 从某处创造出来的 |
| 174 | It got created from people. | 它是从人创造出来的。 |
| 175 | It got created from technology, got created from productivity, got created from hard work. | 由技术创造,由生产力创造,由辛勤工作创造. |
| 176 | So this idea that it's stolen is, I think, this horrible zero-sum game that people who | 因此,这个想法,它被偷了,我认为, 这个可怕的零和游戏, 人谁 |
| 177 | are trying to gain status play. | 试图获得状态游戏。 |
| 178 | But the reality is everyone can be rich. | 但现实是,每个人都可以富有。 |
| 179 | And we can see that by seeing that in the first world, everyone is richer than almost | 我们可以看到,在第一世界,每个人都比几乎更富有 |
| 180 | anyone who was alive 200 years ago. | 二百年前活着的人 |
| 181 | 200 years ago, nobody had antibiotics, nobody had cars, nobody had electricity, nobody had | 200年前,没有人有抗生素,没有人有汽车,没有人有电,没有人有电 |
| 182 | iPhone(英语:iPhone). | |
| 183 | So all of these things are inventions that have made us wealthier as a species. | 所以所有这些东西都是让我们更加富有的发明。 |
| 184 | Today, I would rather be a poor person in a first world country than be a rich person | 今天,我宁愿成为第一世界国家的穷人 也不愿成为富人 |
| 185 | in Louis XIV's France. | 在路易十四的法国 |
| 186 | I'd rather be a poor person today than an aristocrat back then. | 今天我宁可当一个穷人 也不愿当一个贵族 |
| 187 | And that's just because of wealth creation. | 这仅仅是因为财富的创造。 |
| 188 | The engine of technology is science that is applied for the purpose of creating abundance. | 技术的引擎是用于创造丰量目的的科学. |
| 189 | So I think fundamentally everybody can be wealthy. | 所以我认为,基本上每个人都可以富有。 |
| 190 | And the thought experiment I want you to think through is imagine if everybody had the knowledge | 我想让你们思考的实验 就是想象如果每个人都有这种知识 |
| 191 | of a good software engineer and a good hardware engineer. | 一个好的软件工程师和一个好的硬件工程师。 |
| 192 | If you could go out there and you could build robots and computers and bridges and program | 如果你能去那里,你可以 建造机器人,计算机,桥梁和程序 |
| 193 | them. | 他们。 |
| 194 | Let's say every human knew how to do that. | 假设一切众生悉得成就. |
| 195 | What do you think society would look like in 20 years? | 你觉得20年后社会会是什么样子? |
| 196 | My guess is what would happen is we would build robots, machines, software, and hardware | 我猜会发生什么 是我们造机器人、机器、软件和硬件 |
| 197 | to do everything, and we would all be living in massive abundance. | 我们都会生活在巨大的富庶之中 |
| 198 | We would essentially be retired in the sense that none of us would have to work for any | 我们基本上将退休,因为我们没有人会为任何人工作 |
| 199 | of the basics. | 基础。 |
| 200 | We'd even have robotic nurses. | 我们甚至有机器人护士 |
| 201 | We'd have like machine driven hospitals. | 我们要的是机器驱动的医院 |
| 202 | We'd have self-driving cars. | 我们有自驾车 |
| 203 | We'd have farms that are 100% automated. | 我们有百分之百自动化的农场 |
| 204 | We'd have clean energy. | 我们会有干净的能量。 |
| 205 | So at that point, we could use technology breakthroughs to get everything that we wanted. | 因此,在那个时候,我们可以利用技术的突破来获得我们想要的一切。 |
| 206 | And if anyone is still working at that point, they're working as a form of expressing their | 如果有人还在工作, 他们正在做一种表达方式 |
| 207 | creativity. | 创造力。 |
| 208 | They're working because it's in them to contribute and to build and design things. | 他们之所以工作,是因为在他们身上有贡献,建造和设计事物. |
| 209 | But I don't think capitalism is evil. | 但我不认为资本主义是邪恶的。 |
| 210 | Capitalism is actually good. | 资本主义实际上是好的。 |
| 211 | It's just that it gets hijacked. | 只是它被劫持了 |
| 212 | It gets hijacked by improper pricing of externalities. | 它被外在因素的不当定价所劫持。 |
| 213 | It gets hijacked by improper deals where you have corruption or you have monopolies. | 它被不正当交易所劫持 当你有腐败或垄断。 |
| 214 | Overall, capitalism is intrinsic to the human species. | 总的来说,资本主义是人类固有的。 |
| 215 | Capitalism is not something we invented. | 资本主义不是我们发明的 |
| 216 | Capitalism is not even something we discovered. | 资本主义甚至不是我们发现的东西。 |
| 217 | It is innate to us in every exchange that we have. | 这对我们来说是天生的。 |
| 218 | When you and I exchange information, I want some information back from you. | 你和我交换情报时 我要从你那里得到一些情报 |
| 219 | I give you information. | 我给你消息 |
| 220 | You give me information. | 你给我消息 |
| 221 | If we weren't having a good information exchange, you go talk to somebody else. | 如果情报交换不好 你去跟别人谈谈 |
| 222 | So the notion of exchange and keeping track of credits and debits, this is built into | 因此,关于交换和跟踪信用和借项的概念,已纳入 |
| 223 | us as flexible social animals. | 我们作为灵活的社会动物。 |
| 224 | We are the only animals in the animal kingdom that cooperate across genetic boundaries. | 我们是动物王国中唯一跨越基因边界合作的动物. |
| 225 | Most animals don't even cooperate, but when they do, they cooperate only in packs where | 大多数动物甚至不合作, 但当他们这样做, 他们只合作的包 |
| 226 | they co-evolve together and they share blood. | 他们共同进化 并分享血液。 |
| 227 | So they have some shared interests. | 所以他们有一些共同的利益。 |
| 228 | Humans don't have that and what lets us cooperate? | 人类没有这个,我们有什么可以合作的? |
| 229 | It's because we can keep track of debits and credits. | 因为我们可以追踪借记和贷记 |
| 230 | Who put in how much work? | 谁把多少工作? |
| 231 | Who contributed how much? | 谁捐了多少钱? |
| 232 | That's all free market capitalism is. | 自由市场资本主义就是如此 |
| 233 | So I strongly believe that it is innate to the human species and we are going to create | 所以,我坚信它是人类的天生 我们将要创造 |
| 234 | more and more wealth and abundance for everybody. | 给每个人带来越来越多的财富和财富。 |
| 235 | Everybody can be wealthy. | 每个人都可以发财。 |
| 236 | Everybody can be retired. | 每个人都可以退休。 |
| 237 | Everybody can be successful. | 每个人都可以成功。 |
| 238 | It is merely a question of education and desire. | 它只是一个教育和愿望的问题。 |
| 239 | You have to want it. | 你必须想要它。 |
| 240 | If you don't want it, that's fine. | 如果你不想的话 那没关系 |
| 241 | Then you opt out of the game, but don't try and put down the people who are playing the | 然后,你选择退出 游戏,但不要试图 和放下的人谁玩 |
| 242 | game because that's the game that keeps you in a comfortable warm bed at night. | 游戏,因为那是游戏让你在晚上在舒适的温暖的床上. |
| 243 | That's the game that keeps a roof over your head. | 这游戏让你头顶难忘 |
| 244 | That's a game that keeps your supermarket stock. | 那是个让你的超市保持股权的游戏 |
| 245 | That's the game that keeps the iPhone buzzing in your pocket. | 这是让iPhone在你的口袋里响的游戏。 |
| 246 | So it is a beautiful game that is worth playing ethically, rationally, morally, socially for | 因此,这是一个美丽的游戏,值得玩 道德,理性,道德,社会 |
| 247 | the human race and it's going to continue to make us all richer and richer until we | 人类和它会继续 使我们更加富有,直到我们 |
| 248 | have massive wealth creation for anybody who wants it. | 给任何想要创造财富的人带来巨大的财富。 |
| 249 | And it's not just individuals secretly despising wealth, right? | 这不仅仅是个人 秘密掠夺财富,对不对? |
| 250 | There's countries, groups, political parties that overtly despise wealth or at least seem to. | 有一些国家,团体,政党公然轻视财富,或者至少看起来如此. |
| 251 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 252 | And so what those countries, political parties and groups are reduced to is playing the zero-sum | 因此,这些国家、政党和团体被贬为零和 |
| 253 | game of status and the process to destroy wealth creation, they drag everybody down | 地位游戏和破坏创造财富的过程 他们把每个人都拖下水 |
| 254 | to their level, which is why the US is a very popular country for immigrants because | 因此美国对移民来说非常受欢迎, |
| 255 | it's the American dream. | 这是美国梦 |
| 256 | Anyone can come here, be poor and then work really hard and make money and get wealthy, | 任何人都可以来这里, 贫穷,然后工作 真正的努力,赚钱和获得财富, |
| 257 | but even just make some basic money for their lives. | 但即使只是赚一些基本钱 他们的生活。 |
| 258 | Obviously, the definition of wealth is different for different people. | 显然,财富的定义对于不同的人来说是不同的. |
| 259 | A first world citizen's definition of wealth might be I have to make millions of dollars | 第一位世界公民对财富的定义是 我必须赚上百万 |
| 260 | and I'm completely done. | 我受够了 |
| 261 | Whereas to a third world poor immigrant just entering the country and we were poor immigrants | 而第三世界的贫穷移民 刚进入这个国家,我们是贫穷的移民 |
| 262 | who came here when I was fairly young to the United States, wealth may just be a much lower | 我年轻的时候来到美国 财富可能要低得多 |
| 263 | number. | 数字。 |
| 264 | It may just be that I don't have to work a manual labor job for the rest of my life that | 也许只是,我不用做 体力劳动的余生 |
| 265 | I don't want to work. | 我不想工作了,别这样 |
| 266 | But groups that despise it will essentially bring the entire group down to that level. | 但是那些蔑视它的群体 基本上会把整个群体降到这个水平 |
| 267 | If you get too many takers and not enough makers, society falls apart. | 如果你得到太多的接受者和 没有足够的制造者, 社会崩溃。 |
| 268 | You end up with a communist country. | 你最终会加入共产主义国家 |
| 269 | Look at Venezuela, right? | 看看委内瑞拉,对吧? |
| 270 | They were so busy taking and dividing and reallocating that people literally starving | 他们忙着抢夺 分拆 重新分配 以致人们实际上挨饿 |
| 271 | in the streets and losing kilograms of body weight every year just through sheer starvation. | 每年因为饥饿而体重下降 |
| 272 | Another way to think about it is imagine an organism that has too many parasites. | 另一种思考方法就是想象一种寄生虫过多的生物. |
| 273 | You actually need some small number of parasites to stay healthy and you need a lot of | 实际上你需要一些少量的寄生虫 保持健康,你需要很多 |
| 274 | symbiotes like all the mitochondria in all of our cells that help us respirate and burn | 共生体就像我们所有细胞中的线粒体 帮助我们呼吸和燃烧 |
| 275 | oxygen. | 氧气 |
| 276 | These are symbiotes that help us survive. | 这些是共生体 帮助我们生存。 |
| 277 | We can survive without them. | 没有他们我们就能活下来 |
| 278 | But to me, those are partners in the wealth creation that creates the human body. | 但对我来说,这些是创造财富的伙伴 创造人类的身体。 |
| 279 | But if you just were filled with parasites, if you got infected with worms or a virus | 但是如果你只是充满了寄生虫 如果你感染了蠕虫或病毒 |
| 280 | or bacteria that were purely parasitical, you would die. | 或者纯粹是寄生虫的细菌 你会死的 |
| 281 | So any organism can only withstand a small number of parasites. | 因此任何生物只能承受少量的寄生虫. |
| 282 | And when the parasitic element gets too far out of control, you die. | 当寄生元素失去控制时 你就会死 |
| 283 | So, you know, that again, I'm talking about ethical wealth creation. | 所以,你知道,再次,我指的是道德财富创造。 |
| 284 | I'm not talking about monopolies. | 我不是说垄断 |
| 285 | I'm not talking about crony capitalism. | 我不是在说裙带资本主义 |
| 286 | I'm not talking about mispriced externalities like the environment. | 我不是在说环境这种价格过高的外在因素。 |
| 287 | I'm talking about free minds and free markets, small scale exchange between humans | 我说的是自由的头脑和自由的市场 人类之间的小规模交流 |
| 288 | that's voluntary and doesn't have an outsized impact on others. | 这是自愿的,不会对他人造成太大的影响。 |
| 289 | But I think that kind of wealth creation, if a society does not respect it, if a group | 但我认为这种财富创造, 如果一个社会不尊重它,如果一个群体 |
| 290 | does not respect it, that society will plunge into ruin and darkness. | 社会将陷入毁灭和黑暗 |
| 291 | Obviously, we want to be wealthy and we want to get there in this lifetime without having | 很明显,我们想成为富人 我们想在这一生中到达那里,没有 |
| 292 | to rely on luck. | 依靠运气。 |
| 293 | A lot of people think making money is about luck. | 很多人认为赚钱是运气问题. |
| 294 | It's not. | 这不是。 |
| 295 | It's about becoming the kind of person that makes money. | 而是成为赚钱的人 |
| 296 | You know, I like to think that if I lost all my money and if you drop me on a random | 你知道,我喜欢认为 如果我失去了我所有的钱 如果你扔我一个随机 |
| 297 | street in any English speaking country within five, ten years, I'd be wealthy again, | 任何英语国家的街道 在5,10年内,我会再次富有, |
| 298 | right? | 对吧? |
| 299 | Because it's just a skill set that I've developed and I think anyone can develop. | 因为这只是我开发的一套技能,我想任何人都可以开发. |
| 300 | You know, in a thousand parallel universes, you want to be wealthy in 999 of them. | 你知道,在一千个平行的宇宙中, 你想在其中的999个富人。 |
| 301 | You don't want to be wealthy in the 50 of them where you got lucky. | 在你走运的50个地方,你不想发财 |
| 302 | So we want to factor luck out of it. | 所以我们要考虑运气。 |
| 303 | There's really four kinds of luck that we were talking about. | 我们刚才说的有四种运气 |
| 304 | This came from a book, P. | 这是一本书,P。 |
| 305 | Mark, Mark Andreessen wrote a blog post about it, but there's different kinds of luck. | 马克,马克·安德烈森写了一篇有关此事的博客文章,但也有不同种类的运气. |
| 306 | The first kind of luck you might just say is like blind luck where I just got lucky | 你可能只是说第一种运气 就像瞎了的运气 在那里我刚刚走运 |
| 307 | because something completely out of my control happened. | 因为我完全失控了 |
| 308 | You know, that's fortune, that's fate, etc. | 你知道,那是财富,那是命运等等。 |
| 309 | Then there's luck that comes through persistence, hard work, hustle, motion, which is | 还有运气,通过坚持不懈, 辛勤工作,动作,这就是 |
| 310 | when you're just running around creating lots of opportunities, you're generating a | 当你跑来跑去创造很多机会时,你就在创造 |
| 311 | lot of energy, you're doing a lot of things. | 大量的能量,你正在做很多事情。 |
| 312 | Lots of things will just get stirred up in the dust. | 很多事情只会在尘埃中被激起 |
| 313 | It's almost like mixing a Petri dish and seeing what combines or mixing a bunch of | 它几乎就像混合一个Petri菜 和看到什么结合或混合 一堆 |
| 314 | reagents and seeing what combines. | 试剂和看什么结合。 |
| 315 | You're just generating enough force and hustle and energy that luck will find you. | 你只是产生足够的力量和精力 运气会找到你 |
| 316 | A third way is that you just become very good at spotting luck. | 第三种方式是,你只是变得非常 擅长发现运气。 |
| 317 | So if you are very skilled in a field, you will notice when a lucky break happens in | 所以,如果你很熟练 在田里,你会注意到 当幸运的休息发生 |
| 318 | that field and other people who aren't attuned to it won't notice. | 那片田地和不适应它的人不会注意到的 |
| 319 | So you become sensitive to luck and that's just skill and knowledge and work. | 所以,你变得对运气很敏感, 那只是技能、知识和工作。 |
| 320 | And then the last kind of luck is the weirdest, hardest kind. | 最后一种运气是最奇怪最难的 |
| 321 | But that's what we want to talk about, which is where you build a unique character, | 但是这就是我们要谈的 那就是你创造独特角色的地方 |
| 322 | a unique brand, a unique mindset where then luck finds you. | 一个独特的品牌, 一个独特的思维 在那里运气找到你。 |
| 323 | For example, let's say that you're the best person in the world at deep sea underwater | 比如说你是 深海水下最好的人 |
| 324 | diving and you're known to like take on deep sea underwater dives that nobody else | 潜水,你知道你喜欢 深海潜水,没有人 |
| 325 | will even attempt to dare. | 将甚至试图胆敢。 |
| 326 | And then by sheer luck, somebody finds a sunken treasure ship off the coast they | 幸运的是 有人在海岸发现一艘沉没的宝船 |
| 327 | can't get at. | 没办法 |
| 328 | Well, their luck just became your luck because they're going to come to you to get | 他们的运气就成了你的运气 因为他们会来找你 |
| 329 | that treasure and you're going to get paid for it. | 那宝藏,你会得到报酬的。 |
| 330 | Now that's an extreme example, but it's just showing how like the person who got | 这是一个极端的例子,但它只是 显示如何像谁得到了 |
| 331 | lucky by finding the treasure chest that was blind luck, but them coming to you and | 幸运的是找到那个 盲目的宝箱 但是他们来找你 |
| 332 | asking you to extract it and having to give you half. | 让你取出来 并给你一半 |
| 333 | That's not luck. | 这不是运气。 |
| 334 | You created your own luck. | 你创造了你自己的运气。 |
| 335 | You put yourself in a position to be able to capitalize on that luck or to attract that | 你让自己有能力 利用运气或吸引它 |
| 336 | luck when nobody else has created that opportunity for themselves. | 幸运的是,没有人为自己创造了这个机会。 |
| 337 | So when we talk about without getting lucky, we want to be deterministic. | 所以,当我们谈论没有获得幸运, 我们想要决定。 |
| 338 | We don't want to leave it to chance. | 我们不想让机会发生 |
| 339 | Do you want to elaborate a little bit more on the idea that in a thousand parallel | 你是否想更详细地阐述一下这个想法? |
| 340 | universes you want to get rich in 999 of them? | 你想在999个宇宙里发财? |
| 341 | I think some people are going to see that and say that sounds impossible. | 我想有些人会看到 并说这听起来不可能。 |
| 342 | Sounds like it's too good to be true. | 听起来太好 不是真的。 |
| 343 | No, I don't think it's impossible. | 不,我不认为这是不可能的。 |
| 344 | I think that you may have to work a little bit harder at it given your starting | 我认为你可能得努力工作 因为它是你的开始 |
| 345 | circumstances. | 环境。 |
| 346 | I mean remember I started as a poor kid in India, right? | 我的意思是记得我开始 是一个可怜的孩子在印度,对不对? |
| 347 | So if I can make it anybody can in that sense. | 所以,如果我能做到这一点 任何人都可以从这个意义上。 |
| 348 | Now, obviously I had all my limbs and I had my mental faculties and I did have an | 现在,很明显,我有我的四肢, 我有我的精神能力,我确实有一个 |
| 349 | education. | 教育。 |
| 350 | So there are some prerequisites you can get past. | 所以,有一些先决条件 你可以过去。 |
| 351 | But if you're listening to this video or podcast, you probably have the requisite | 但是如果你在听这个视频或播客, 你可能有必要 |
| 352 | means at your disposal, which is a functioning body and a functioning mind. | 它是一个正常运转的机构和一个正常运转的心灵 |
| 353 | And I've encountered plenty of bad luck along the way. | 我一路遇到很多坏运气 |
| 354 | First little fortune that I made I instantly lost in the stock market. | 我赚的第一大笔钱 立刻在股票市场上输了 |
| 355 | The second little fortune that I made or I should have made I got cheated by my | 我赚的第二个小钱 或者我本该赚的 我被我骗了 |
| 356 | business partners. | 商业伙伴。 |
| 357 | It's only the third time around has been a charm and even then it has been in a | 这仅仅是第三次 一直是一个魅力, 即使那时它一直在一个 |
| 358 | slow and steady struggle. | 缓慢而稳定的斗争。 |
| 359 | And I haven't made money in my life in one giant payout. | 我这辈子没赚过钱 一次巨大的报酬。 |
| 360 | It's always been a whole bunch of small things piling up. | 总是一大堆小东西堆积起来. |
| 361 | So it's more about consistently creating wealth by creating businesses and | 因此,它更多的是通过创建企业和 |
| 362 | creating opportunities and creating investments. | 创造机会和创造投资。 |
| 363 | It hasn't been like a giant one-off thing. | 它没有像一个巨大的一次性的事情。 |
| 364 | My personal wealth has not been generated by one a big year. | 我个人的财富不是一年一个大的。 |
| 365 | It just stacks up a little bit chips at a time more options, more businesses, | 它只是堆起一些芯片 时间更多的选择,更多的企业, |
| 366 | more investments, more things I can do. | 更多的投资,更多的事情我可以做。 |
| 367 | Same way someone like a Nenad, he's building his brand online. | 就像Nenad一样 他在网上建立自己的品牌 |
| 368 | He's building videos. | 他在录影带 |
| 369 | It's not like any one video is going to suddenly shower him with riches overnight. | 没有一个视频会突然 给他带来一晚上的财富 |
| 370 | It's going to be a long lifetime of learning of reading of creating. | 将终身修习读诵创作. |
| 371 | That's just going to compound. | 这会很复杂 |
| 372 | So we're talking about getting wealthy so you can retire. | 所以我们是说要发财才让你退休 |
| 373 | So you have your freedom not retire the sense that you don't do anything, but in | 所以,你的自由没有 退休的感觉,你什么都不做,但是在 |
| 374 | the sense that you don't have to be any place you don't want to be. | 感觉你不必成为你不想成为的地方 |
| 375 | You don't have to do anything you don't want to do and you can wake up when you | 你不必做你不想做的事 当你醒来的时候 |
| 376 | want you can sleep and you want you don't have a boss that's freedom. | 想要你睡着 想要你没有老板 那就是自由 |
| 377 | So we're talking about enough wealth to get to freedom and especially thanks to | 所以,我们说的是足够的财富 获得自由,特别是感谢 |
| 378 | the internet these days. | 现在的互联网。 |
| 379 | Those opportunities are massively abundant. | 这些机会是巨大的。 |
| 380 | I in fact have too many ways to make money. | 其实我有很多赚钱的方法 |
| 381 | I don't have enough time. | 我没有足够的时间。 |
| 382 | I literally have opportunities pouring out of my ears and the thing I keep | 我确实有从耳朵里涌出来的机会 以及我保留的东西 |
| 383 | running out of his time. | 他的时间不多了 |
| 384 | There's just so many ways to create wealth to create products to create | 创造财富和创造产品的方法太多了 |
| 385 | businesses to create opportunities and to as a byproduct get paid by society | 企业创造机会和作为副产品获得社会报酬 |
| 386 | that I just can't even handle it all. | 我甚至不能应付这一切。 |
| 387 | I think it's pretty interesting that the first three kinds of luck that you | 我觉得这很有趣,你头三种运气 |
| 388 | described there are very common cliches for them that everybody knows and then | 说他们有很常见的陈词滥调 每个人都知道,然后 |
| 389 | for that last kind of luck that comes to you out of the unique way that you act. | 为了最后的运气,从你独特的行为方式 降临到你身上。 |
| 390 | There's no real cliche for it. | 没有真正的陈词滥调 |
| 391 | So for the first three kinds, there's dumb luck or blind luck. | 所以对于前三种,有哑运气或盲运气. |
| 392 | That's the first kind of luck the second kind of luck. | 此是第一义运二义. |
| 393 | There's the cliche that fortune favors the bold. | 有陈词滥调 幸运喜欢大胆。 |
| 394 | That's a person who gets lucky just by stirring the pot and acting the third | 这是一个人谁得到幸运的 只是搅锅 演第三 |
| 395 | kind of luck people say that chance favors the prepared mind. | 幸运的是,人们说机会有利于 准备好的头脑。 |
| 396 | But for the fourth kind of luck there is not really a common cliche out there | 但对于第四种运气 外面并没有常见的陈词滥调 |
| 397 | that matches the unique character of your action, which I think is interesting | 这符合你行动的独特性 我觉得很有趣 |
| 398 | and perhaps an opportunity and it also just shows that people aren't | 或许是一个机会 也表明人们不是 |
| 399 | necessarily taking advantage of that kind of luck the way they should be. | 必然会利用这种运气 |
| 400 | I think also at that point it starts becoming so deterministic that it | 我想这时候,它开始变得如此决定性 |
| 401 | stops being luck. | 不再是运气。 |
| 402 | So the definition starts fading from luck to more destiny. | 因此,定义开始从运气消失到更多的命运. |
| 403 | So I would characterize that fourth one is you build your character in a | 所以我认为第四件事就是 你将你的性格建在 |
| 404 | certain way and then your character becomes your destiny. | 一定的方式,然后你的性格成为你的命运。 |
| 405 | One of the things I think that is important to making money. | 我认为这对赚钱很重要 |
| 406 | You want the kind of reputation that makes people do deals through you. | 你想要那种能让人们通过你来交易的名声 |
| 407 | You know, I use the example of like if you're a great diver, then treasure | 你知道,我用的例子 像你是一个伟大的潜水员,然后宝藏 |
| 408 | hunters will come and give you a piece of the treasure for your diving skills. | 猎人会来 并给你一块宝藏 为了你的潜水技能。 |
| 409 | If you're a trusted reliable high integrity long-term thinking dealmaker | 如果你是一个可靠的高正直 长期思考交易商 |
| 410 | then when other people want to do deals, but they don't know how to do them | 当别人想做交易时 他们不知道怎么做 |
| 411 | in a trustworthy manner with strangers, they will literally approach you | 以值得信赖的方式与陌生人, 他们字面上接近你 |
| 412 | and give you a cut of the deal or offer you a unique deal just because | 并给你一份交易 或给你一个独特的交易 只是因为 |
| 413 | of the integrity and reputation that you've built up Warren Buffett. | 你为沃伦·巴菲特创造的正直和名誉 |
| 414 | He gets offered deals and he gets to buy companies and he gets to buy | 买公司,买公司 |
| 415 | warrants and bailout banks and do things that other people can't do | 搜查令和救助银行 做别人不能做的事 |
| 416 | because of his reputation. | 因为他的名声 |
| 417 | But of course that's fragile. | 当然很脆弱 |
| 418 | It has accountability on the line. | 它有问责制在线。 |
| 419 | It has a strong brand on the line and as we will talk about later that | 它有很强的品牌 我们稍后再谈 |
| 420 | comes with accountability attached, but I would say your character your | 不过我要说你的性格 |
| 421 | reputation. | 名声 |
| 422 | These are things that you can build that then will let you take out | 这些东西你可以建造,然后让你取出 |
| 423 | advantages of opportunities that other people may characterize as lucky, | 机会的好处 其他人可能认为幸运, |
| 424 | but you know that it wasn't luck. | 但你知道这不是运气 |
| 425 | You said that this fourth kind of luck is more or less a destiny. | 你说这种第四种运气 或多或少是一种命运 |
| 426 | There's a quote from that original book that was in Mark's blog post | 马克的博客文章里 引用了那本原著 |
| 427 | from Benjamin Disraeli who I think was the former Prime Minister of | 本杰明·迪斯雷利的前任总理 |
| 428 | the UK. | 英国。 |
| 429 | The quote to describe this kind of luck was we make our fortunes and | 用来描述这种运气的引言是 我们赚了大钱 |
| 430 | we call them fate. | 我们称之为命运。 |
| 431 | There were a couple other interesting things about this kind of luck | 有一些其他有趣的事情 关于这种运气 |
| 432 | that were mentioned in the blog post. | 在博客文章中提及, |
| 433 | I think it'll be good for the listeners to hear about is that this | 我想听这些会好听的 |
| 434 | fourth kind of luck can almost come out of eccentric ways that you | 第四种运气 几乎可以从古怪的方式,你 |
| 435 | do your things and that eccentricity is not necessarily a bad thing in | 做你的事情 古怪不一定是坏事 |
| 436 | this case. | 这个案子 |
| 437 | In fact, it's a good thing. | 事实上,这是件好事。 |
| 438 | Yeah, absolutely because the world is a very efficient place. | 是啊,绝对是因为世界是一个非常有效的地方。 |
| 439 | ┮┮Τ常┮Τ陪礛よ dug | |
| 440 | find something that's new and novel and uncovered it helps to be | 找到新颖的东西 发现它有帮助 |
| 441 | operating on a frontier where right there you have to be a little | 在一个边境上行动,在那里你需要一点点 |
| 442 | eccentric to be out on the frontier by yourself and then you just | 独自一人在边境上走出来很怪,然后你就 |
| 443 | have to be willing to dig deeper than other people do deeper than | 比别人挖得更深 |
| 444 | seems irrational just because you're interested. | 似乎不理智 只是因为你感兴趣。 |
| 445 | Yeah, the two quotes that I've seen that express this kind of luck | 是啊,两句我见过的 表达这种幸运 |
| 446 | in addition to that Benjamin Disraeli one are this one from Sam | 除了本杰明・迪斯雷利的外 还有一个来自山姆的 |
| 447 | Altman where he said extreme people get extreme results. | 阿尔特曼 他说极端的人会得到极端的结果 |
| 448 | I think that's pretty nice. | 我觉得这很好 |
| 449 | And then there's this other one from Jeffrey Pfeffer who is a | 还有另一个来自杰弗里·费弗的 |
| 450 | professor at Stanford that you can't be normal and expect abnormal | 斯坦福大学的教授说你不能正常 并期望异常 |
| 451 | returns. | 返回。 |
| 452 | I've always enjoyed that one too. | 我也很喜欢这个 |
| 453 | Yeah, and one quote that I like which is the exact opposite of that | 是啊,还有一句我喜欢的 正好相反 |
| 454 | is play stupid games win stupid prizes. | 是玩愚蠢的游戏 赢得愚蠢的奖。 |
| 455 | All right, a lot of people spend a lot of their time playing social | 好吧,很多人花很多时间在社交上 |
| 456 | games like on Twitter where you just trying to improve your social | 像是推特上的游戏 你只是想改善你的社交能力 |
| 457 | standing and you basically win stupid social prizes which are | 你基本上赢得了愚蠢的社会奖 |
| 458 | worthless. | 没用 |
| 459 | I guess the last thing that I have from this blog post is just the | 我猜我从这篇博客文章里 得到的最后一点就是 |
| 460 | idea that by pursuing these kinds of luck, especially the last | 认为通过追求这些运气,特别是最后的 |
| 461 | one basically everything but dumb luck by pursuing them. | 基本上,一切,但愚蠢的运气 通过追逐他们。 |
| 462 | You essentially run out of unlock. | 你基本上没有解锁了 |
| 463 | So if you just keep stirring the pot and stirring the pot that alone | 所以,如果你继续搅拌锅 和搅拌锅孤独 |
| 464 | you will run out of unlock. | 你会失去解锁。 |
| 465 | Yeah, or it could just be a reversion to the mean, right? | 是的,或者它可能只是 转回恶性,对不对? |
| 466 | So then you at least neutralize luck so that it's your own talents | 所以,你至少中和运气 所以这是你自己的才能 |
| 467 | that come into play. | 这开始起作用。 |
| 468 | Next you go into more specific details on how you can actually | 接下来你详细介绍你怎样才能做到 |
| 469 | get rich and how you can't get rich. | 发财 发财 |
| 470 | The first point was about how you're not going to get rich. | 第一点是关于你不会发财 |
| 471 | You're not going to get rich renting out your time. | 你不会得到富有 租出你的时间。 |
| 472 | You must own equity a piece of a business to gain your financial | 你必须拥有股权 一份生意来获得你的财务 |
| 473 | freedom. | 自由权。 |
| 474 | This is probably one of the absolute most important points people | 这大概是绝对最重要的一点之一 |
| 475 | seem to think that you can create wealth and make money through | 似乎认为你可以创造财富和赚钱 |
| 476 | work and it's probably not going to work. | 工作可能不会成功 |
| 477 | There are many reasons for that. | 原因很多。 |
| 478 | But the most basic is just that your inputs are very closely tied | 但最基本的是,你的投入是紧密相连的 |
| 479 | to your outputs in almost any salary job, even at one that's paying | 你几乎在任何薪水工作上的工作, 即使是一个支付 |
| 480 | a lot per hour like lawyer or a doctor. | 像律师或医生一样 每小时很多 |
| 481 | You're still putting in the hours and every hour you get paid. | 你还在付工时和每个小时的薪水 |
| 482 | So what that means is when you're sleeping, you're not earning when | 意思是当你睡觉的时候 你没有挣钱 |
| 483 | you're retired. | 你已经退休了 |
| 484 | You're not earning when you're in vacation. | 你在度假的时候没赚到钱 |
| 485 | You're not earning and you can't earn nonlinearly if you look at | 你没有挣钱,而且你不可能 得到非线性,如果你看 |
| 486 | even doctors who get rich like really rich. | 连有钱的医生都像有钱人一样 |
| 487 | It's because they open a business they open like a private practice | 因为他们开的生意就像私人的生意 |
| 488 | and that private practice builds a brand and that brand attracts | 和私人做法 建立一个品牌 和吸引 |
| 489 | people or they build some kind of a medical device or a procedure | 人或他们制造某种医疗设备或程序 |
| 490 | or a process where they have intellectual property. | 或拥有知识产权的程序。 |
| 491 | So essentially you're working for somebody else and that person | 所以基本上你为别人和那个人工作 |
| 492 | is taking on the risk and has the accountability and the intellectual | 正在承担风险,并有问责制和知识分子 |
| 493 | property and the brand. | 财产和品牌。 |
| 494 | So they're just not going to pay you enough. | 所以他们不会给你足够的报酬 |
| 495 | They're going to pay you the bare minimum that they have to to | 他们会付你最低的薪水 |
| 496 | get you good at the job and that can be a high bare minimum, | 让你在工作上做得好, 这可以是一个很高的最低限度, |
| 497 | but it's still not going to be true wealth where you're retired. | 但它仍然不会是真正的财富 在你退休的地方。 |
| 498 | And then finally you're actually just not even creating that much | 最后,你实际上只是 连创造这么多 |
| 499 | original for society. | 社会独创。 |
| 500 | Like I said, this tweetstorm should have been called how to create | 就像我说的,这个微博风暴应该被称为如何创建 |
| 501 | wealth is just how to get rich was a more catchy title, but you're | 财富只是如何发财 是一个更引人注目的头衔, 但你是 |
| 502 | not creating new things for society. | 不为社会创造新事物。 |
| 503 | You're just doing things over and over and you're essentially replaceable | 你只是一次又一次地做一些事情 你基本上可以替代 |
| 504 | because you're now doing a set role. | 因为你现在正在做一个固定的角色。 |
| 505 | Most set roles can be taught if they can be taught like in a school | 如果能像在学校里一样教他们,大多数固定角色都可以教 |
| 506 | then eventually you'll be competing with someone who's got more recent | 最终,你将会竞争 与最近的人 |
| 507 | knowledge who's been taught and is coming in to replace you. | 已经学会了 并且要来代替你 |
| 508 | You're much more likely to be doing a job that can be eventually | 你更可能做一个最终可能的工作 |
| 509 | replaced by a robot or by an AI and it doesn't have to be a | 被机器人或人工智能取代 不一定是 |
| 510 | wholesale replaced overnight. | 批发连夜更换. |
| 511 | It can be replaced a little bit of a time and that eats into your | 它可以被替换 一点点的时间 吃进你的 |
| 512 | wealth creation and therefore your earning capability. | 创造财富,从而创造你们的能力。 |
| 513 | So fundamentally your inputs are matched to your outputs. | 所以,基本上,你的投入与你的产出相匹配。 |
| 514 | You are replaceable and you're not being creative. | 你是可以替代的,你没有创造力。 |
| 515 | I just don't think that that is a way that you can truly make money. | 我只是不认为那是你真正赚钱的方式。 |
| 516 | So everybody who really makes money at some point owns a piece of | 所以所有真正赚钱的人 都拥有一块 |
| 517 | a product or a business or some kind of IP that can be through | 一种产品或企业或某种可以穿过的IP |
| 518 | stock options. | 股票期权。 |
| 519 | So if you can be working at a tech company, that's a fine way to | 所以如果你能在科技公司工作 那是个好办法 |
| 520 | start but usually the real wealth is created by starting your own | 开始,但通常真正的财富是通过开始自己的创造 |
| 521 | companies or by even investors. | 公司,甚至投资者。 |
| 522 | They are in an investment firm and they're buying equity. | 他们在一家投资公司 正在购买股票 |
| 523 | So these are much more the routes to wealth. | 所以这些是通往财富的道路。 |
| 524 | It doesn't come to the hours. | 时不来. |
| 525 | You really just want a job or a career or a profession where your | 你真的只是想要一份工作 事业 或职业 |
| 526 | inputs don't match your outputs. | 输入与您的输出不匹配 。 |
| 527 | So if you look at modern society and again this is later in the | 所以,如果你看看现代社会, 再说一遍,这是后期 |
| 528 | tweet storm businesses that have high creativity and high leverage | 微博暴风雨, |
| 529 | tend to be ones where you could do an hour of work and it can have | 通常你可以做一个小时的工作,它可以有 |
| 530 | a huge effect or you can do a thousand hours of work and have | 巨大的效果,或者你可以做一千小时的工作 |
| 531 | no effect. | 没有效果。 |
| 532 | For example, look at software engineering. | 例如,看看软件工程. |
| 533 | One great engineer can for example create Bitcoin and create | 一个伟大的工程师可以创造 比特币和创造 |
| 534 | billions of dollars worth of value. | 价值数十亿. |
| 535 | An engineer who's working on the wrong thing or not quite as | 做错事的工程师 |
| 536 | good or just not as creative or thoughtful or whatever can work | 好,或者只是没有 创造性或深思熟虑或任何东西可以工作 |
| 537 | for an entire year and every piece of code they ship ends up | 一整年 他们运送的每件代码都会被终结 |
| 538 | not getting used. | 没有被利用。 |
| 539 | Customers don't want it. | 顾客不想要它。 |
| 540 | That is an example of a profession where the input and the | 这是一个职业的例子,其中投入和 |
| 541 | outputs are highly disconnected. | 产出高度脱节。 |
| 542 | It's not based on the number of hours that you put in. | 这不是基于你投入的小时数。 |
| 543 | Whereas on the extreme other end if you're a lumberjack even the | 如果你是伐木工的话,反之亦然 |
| 544 | best lumberjack in the world assuming they're not working with | 世界上最好的伐木工 如果他们不合作 |
| 545 | tools so the inputs and outputs are fairly connected and just | 工具,使投入和产出能够公平连接和公正 |
| 546 | using an axe or a saw the best lumberjack in the world maybe | 用斧头或锯子 世界上最好的伐木工 也许 |
| 547 | like 3x better than one of the worst lumberjacks, right? | 比最烂的伐木工还好,对吧? |
| 548 | It's not going to be a gigantic difference. | 这不是一个巨大的区别。 |
| 549 | So you want to look for professions and careers where the | 所以,你想寻找职业和事业 |
| 550 | inputs and the outputs are highly disconnected. | 投入和产出高度脱节。 |
| 551 | This is another way of saying that you want to look for things | 这是另一种说法,你想寻找的东西 |
| 552 | that are leveraged and by leverage I don't mean financial | 杠杆和杠杆 我不是说金融 |
| 553 | leverage alone like Wall Street uses and that has a bad name. | 像华尔街那样的杠杆 名字不好 |
| 554 | I'm just talking about tools. | 我只是在说工具 |
| 555 | We're using tools. | 我们在用工具 |
| 556 | Computer is a tool that software engineers use. | 计算机是软件工程师使用的工具. |
| 557 | If I'm a lumberjack with bulldozers and automatic robot | 如果我是一个伐木工 与推土机和自动机器人 |
| 558 | axes and saws, I'm going to be using tools and have more | 斧头和锯子,我要用工具 拥有更多的 |
| 559 | leverage than someone who's just using his bare hands and try | 比那些赤手空拳来试一试 |
| 560 | to rip the trees out by their roots. | 把树从树根上拔出来 |
| 561 | Tools and leverage are what create this disconnection between | 工具和杠杆是造成这种脱节的原因 |
| 562 | inputs and outputs creativity. | 投入和产出。 |
| 563 | So the higher the creativity component of a profession the | 因此,一个专业的创造力成分越高, |
| 564 | more likely it is to have disconnected inputs and outputs. | 更可能使投入和产出脱节。 |
| 565 | So I think that if you're looking at professions where your | 所以我认为,如果你看 专业 你的 |
| 566 | inputs and your outputs are highly connected, it's going to | 输入和您的输出高度连接,它将会 |
| 567 | be very, very, very hard to create wealth and make wealth | 非常,非常,非常难 创造财富和创造财富 |
| 568 | for yourself in that process. | 在那个过程中你自己。 |
| 569 | Any other big things you should avoid other than renting out | 除了租房以外,你应该避免其他大事 |
| 570 | your time? | 你的时间? |
| 571 | Yeah, there are two tweets that I put out that are related. | 是的,有两条微博是我发的 与此相关的。 |
| 572 | So the first one was talking about where someone like how | 所以第一个是在谈论 哪里有人喜欢如何 |
| 573 | your lifestyle, you know, has to upgrade shouldn't get upgraded | 你的生活方式,你知道, 必须升级不应该升级 |
| 574 | too fast. | 速度太快了,我们该走了 |
| 575 | And that one said people who are living far below their | 那一个说,人们 谁生活在远远低于他们的 |
| 576 | means enjoy a freedom that people busy upgrading their | 意味着享受自由 人们忙于提升他们的 |
| 577 | lifestyles just can't fathom. | 生活方式是无法理解的。 |
| 578 | And I think that's very important like just to not upgrade | 我觉得这很重要 就像不升级一样 |
| 579 | your lifestyle all the time to maintain your freedom and it | 你的生活方式 一直维护你的自由 |
| 580 | just gives your freedom of operation. | 只是给你的操作自由。 |
| 581 | Once you make a little bit of money, you still want to be | 一旦你赚了点钱,你还是想 |
| 582 | living like your old self. | 就像你以前一样生活 |
| 583 | So that's just the worry goes away. | 所以那只是担心的消失。 |
| 584 | So don't go out to upgrade that house and lifestyle and all | 所以别出去改造房子和生活方式 |
| 585 | that stuff. | 那个东西。 |
| 586 | Let's say you're going to get a thousand dollars an hour. | 假令一时得一千金. |
| 587 | The problem is that when you go into a work lifestyle like | 问题是当你进入一种工作生活方式,比如 |
| 588 | that, you don't just suddenly go from making $20 an hour to | 你不只是突然从每小时赚20美元到 |
| 589 | making a thousand dollars an hour. | 每小时赚一千块 |
| 590 | That's a progression over a long career. | 这是一项漫长的事业 |
| 591 | And as that happens, one subtle problem is that you upgrade | 发生这种情况后,一个微妙的问题是 你升级 |
| 592 | your lifestyle as you make more and more money and that upgrading | 你的生活方式,因为你赚了越来越多的钱 和提升 |
| 593 | of the lifestyle ups what you consider to be wealth and you | 生活方式增加你认为是财富和你的 |
| 594 | stay in this wage slave trap. | 留在这个工资奴隶陷阱。 |
| 595 | So I forget who said it. | 所以我忘了是谁说的 |
| 596 | Maybe it was Nassim Taleb, but he said, you know, the most | 也许就是纳西姆·塔莱布 但他说,你知道,最 |
| 597 | dangerous things are heroin and a monthly salary, right? | 危险的东西是海洛因和月薪,对不对? |
| 598 | Because they're highly addictive. | 因为他们很上瘾 |
| 599 | The way you want to get wealthy is you want to be poor and | 你想发财的方式是想变穷 |
| 600 | working and working and working. | 工作,工作,工作,工作。 |
| 601 | And this is for example, how the tech industry works where | 例如,科技产业如何运作 |
| 602 | you don't make any money for 10 years and then suddenly in | 你十年没赚钱,突然进来 |
| 603 | year 11, you might have a giant payday, which is what by the | 11年级,你可能有一个巨大的工资日, 这是由 |
| 604 | way, one reason why these very high marginal tax rates for | 这也是为什么这些非常高的边际税率 |
| 605 | the so-called wealthy are flawed because the highest | 所谓富人是有缺陷的 因为最高的 |
| 606 | risk-taking most creative professions that will be lose | 冒险从事将失去的大多数创造性职业 |
| 607 | money for a decade of your life while you take massive risk | 你冒着巨大的风险 花了你十年的时间 |
| 608 | and you bleed and bleed and bleed and then suddenly in year | 血流成河 年复一年 |
| 609 | 11 or year 15, you might have one single big payday, but then | 11年或15年,你可能有一个大薪日,但之后 |
| 610 | of course Uncle Sam show up and say, hey, you know what? | 当然,山姆叔叔来了 说,嘿,你知道吗? |
| 611 | You just made a lot of money this year. | 你今年赚了很多钱 |
| 612 | Therefore you're rich. | 因此,你很有钱。 |
| 613 | Therefore you're evil and you got to hand it all over to us. | 因此,你是邪恶的,你必须把它全部交给我们。 |
| 614 | So it just destroys those kinds of creative risk-taking | 所以它只是摧毁了这种 创造性冒险 |
| 615 | professions, but ideally you want to make your money in | 职业,但理想的 你想赚钱在 |
| 616 | discrete lumps separated over long periods of time so that | 长期分离的离散块,以便 |
| 617 | your own lifestyle does not have a chance to adapt quickly | 你自己的生活方式没有机会迅速适应 |
| 618 | and then you can say, okay, now I'm done. | 然后你可以说,好吧, 现在我结束了。 |
| 619 | Now I'm retired. | 现在我退休了 |
| 620 | Now I'm free. | 现在我自由了 |
| 621 | I'm still going to work because you got to do something with | 我仍然要工作 因为你得做点什么 |
| 622 | your life, but I'm going to work on only the things that I | 你的生活,但我要去工作 只有我的东西 |
| 623 | want when I want and it's going to be much more creative | 想要我需要的时候 就会更有创意 |
| 624 | expression and much less about money. | 更别提钱了 |
| 625 | You're not going to get rich renting out your time, but you | 你不会有钱租出去的 但你 |
| 626 | say that you will get rich by giving society what it wants, | 说你会发财 给社会它想要的, |
| 627 | but does not yet know how to get at scale. | 但却还不知道如何达到规模。 |
| 628 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 629 | So essentially as we talked about before money is IOUs from | 所以基本上就像我们在钱之前讲的,是来自 |
| 630 | society saying you did something good in the past. | 社会说你过去做过好事 |
| 631 | Now here's something that we owe you for the future. | 现在,这是我们欠你的未来。 |
| 632 | And so society will pay you for creating things that it | 所以社会会付钱给你创造的东西 |
| 633 | wants, but society doesn't yet know how to create those | 想要,但社会还不知道 如何创造这些 |
| 634 | things because if it did it would need you. | 事情,因为如果它这样做 它会需要你。 |
| 635 | They would already be stamped out big time. | 他们早就被消灭了 |
| 636 | Almost everything is in your house in your workplace and | 几乎一切都在你家里 在你的工作场所和 |
| 637 | on the street used to be technology at one point in time. | 街上曾经一度是科技. |
| 638 | There's a time when oil was technology that made JB | 有一段时间石油是技术 使JB |
| 639 | Rockefeller rich. | 洛克菲勒有钱 |
| 640 | There's a time when cars were technology that made Henry | 有段时间,汽车是技术 使亨利 |
| 641 | Ford rich. | 福德富贵. |
| 642 | So technology is just the set of things as Alan Kay said | 所以,科技只是 一组事情,艾伦凯说 |
| 643 | that don't quite work yet. | 还没成功 |
| 644 | Once something works is no longer technology. | 一旦有东西起作用 就不再是技术了 |
| 645 | So society always wants new things and if you want to be | 所以社会总是想要新的事物 如果你想成为 |
| 646 | wealthy, you want to figure out which one of those things | 有钱人,你想知道其中哪一种 |
| 647 | you can provide for society that it does not yet know how | 你可以为社会提供它不知道如何 |
| 648 | to get but it will want that's natural to you and within | 来得到它,但它会希望 这是自然的你和内部 |
| 649 | your skill set within your capabilities and then you | 你的能力,然后你 |
| 650 | have to figure out how to scale it because if you just | 必须想出如何扩大它 因为如果你只是 |
| 651 | build one of it, that's not enough. | 盖其中之一,不足矣. |
| 652 | You got to build thousands or hundreds of thousands or | 你必须造出几千或几十万 |
| 653 | millions or billions of them. | 几百万或数十亿 |
| 654 | So everybody can have one Steve Jobs and his team of | 这样每个人都可以有一个史蒂夫・乔布斯和他的团队 |
| 655 | course figured out that society would want smartphones | 当然,社会需要智能手机 |
| 656 | computer in their pocket that had all the phone capability | 电脑在他们的口袋里 拥有所有的电话能力 |
| 657 | times a hundred and be easy to use. | 百倍而易用. |
| 658 | So they figured out how to build that and then they | 所以他们想出了如何建造它,然后他们 |
| 659 | figured out how to scale it and they figured out how to | 他们想出如何扩大范围 |
| 660 | get one into every first world citizens pocket and | 获得一个进入每一个世界 公民口袋, |
| 661 | eventually every third world citizen too and so because | 最终每个第三世界公民同样如此,因为 |
| 662 | of that they're handsomely rewarded and Apple is the | 他们得到的回报是英俊 苹果是 |
| 663 | most valuable company in the world. | 世界上最有价值的公司。 |
| 664 | The way I tried to put it was that the entrepreneurs | 我想说的是 企业家们 |
| 665 | job is to try to bring the high-end to the mass market. | 工作是努力把高端市场带入大众市场. |
| 666 | It starts as high-end first it starts with an act of | 它从高端开始 首先它从行为开始 |
| 667 | creativity. | 创造力。 |
| 668 | First you create just because you want it you want it and | 首先,你创造只是因为 你想要它,你想要它 |
| 669 | you know how to build it and you need it and so you | 你知道如何建造它 你需要它,所以你 |
| 670 | build it for yourself. | 为自己建造. |
| 671 | Then you figure out how to get it to other people and | 然后你想出怎么把它给别人 |
| 672 | for a little while rich people have it like for example | 有一阵子有钱人就喜欢 |
| 673 | rich people had chauffeurs and then they had black | 有钱人有司机,还有黑人 |
| 674 | town cars and then uber came along and everyone's | 镇上的汽车,然后 uber来了,每个人都 |
| 675 | private driver was available to everybody and now you | 私人司机可以让所有人使用,现在你 |
| 676 | can even see uber pools that are replacing shuttle | 甚至可以看到正在取代太空梭的 uber池 |
| 677 | buses because it's more convenient and then you get | 巴士因为更方便,然后你得到 |
| 678 | scooters which are even further down market of that. | 摩托车甚至更落后的市场。 |
| 679 | So you're right. | 所以你是对的 |
| 680 | It's about distributing what rich people used to have | 而是分配富人曾经拥有的 |
| 681 | to everybody but the entrepreneurs job starts even | 对每个人来说,除了企业家的工作 开始甚至 |
| 682 | before that which is creation entrepreneurship is | 在创造创业之前 |
| 683 | essentially an act of creating something new from | 基本上是一种创造新事物的行为 |
| 684 | scratch predicting the society will want it and then | 刮伤预示着社会会想要它,然后 |
| 685 | figuring out how to scale it and get it to everybody | 想想怎么把它放大给大家 |
| 686 | in a profitable way in a self-sustaining way. | 以自给自足的方式盈利。 |
| 687 | Let's look at this next tweet which I thought was | 让我们看看这下一个微博 我认为是 |
| 688 | cryptic and also super interesting about the kind of | 秘密的,而且超级有趣 对于这种 |
| 689 | job or career that you might have you said the | 工作或事业 你可能说过 |
| 690 | internet has massively broadened the possible space | 互联网已经大大拓宽了可能的空间 |
| 691 | of careers. | 职业。 |
| 692 | Most people haven't figured this out yet. | 多数人还没想明白 |
| 693 | The fundamental property of the internet more than | 互联网的基本财产比 |
| 694 | other single thing is it connects every human to each | 另外一件事是它把每个人和每个人联系起来 |
| 695 | other human on the planet. | 地球上的其他人类 |
| 696 | You can now reach everyone whether it's by emailing | 你现在可以联系到每个人了 不管是通过电子邮件 |
| 697 | them personally whether it's by broadcasting to them | 他们个人是否通过广播对他们 |
| 698 | on Twitter whether it's by posting something on Facebook | 在推特上是否通过在脸书上张贴一些东西 |
| 699 | that they find whether it's by putting up a website | 他们是否通过建立网站来发现 |
| 700 | they come and access it connects everyone to everyone. | 他们来访问它 连接每个人和每个人。 |
| 701 | So the internet is an internet working tool. | 所以互联网是一个互联网工作工具。 |
| 702 | It connects everybody that is its superpower. | 它连接着每一个拥有超级力量的人。 |
| 703 | So you want to use that what that helps you figure | 所以,你想用这个帮助你想象 |
| 704 | out is that the internet means that you can find your | 互联网意味着你可以找到你的 |
| 705 | audience for your product or your talent and skill | 或你的天赋和技能 |
| 706 | no matter how far away they are. | 无论他们有多远 |
| 707 | For example, Nenad who is illicertus if he was in his | 例如,Nenad如果身处险境,那么他就是邪恶的。 |
| 708 | videos pre-internet, how would he get the message out | 视频预告网,他怎么把消息传出去 |
| 709 | there? | 那边? |
| 710 | It would just be what would he do? | 他会怎么做? |
| 711 | He would run around where he lives in his neighborhood | 他会跑来跑去他住的地方 |
| 712 | showing it to people on a computer or a screen or he | 在电脑或屏幕上展示给大家看 |
| 713 | would try to get it played at his local movie theater. | 试着让他的电影院播放 |
| 714 | It was impossible. | 这是不可能的。 |
| 715 | It only works because he can put it on the internet and | 是因为他能上网 |
| 716 | then how many people in the world are really interested | 那么世界上有多少人真正感兴趣 |
| 717 | in it or even interested in what we're talking about | 或甚至对我们所说的感兴趣 |
| 718 | are really going to absorb it, right? | 真的会吸收它,对不对? |
| 719 | It's going to be a very small subset of humanity. | 它将成为人类的一个很小的子集. |
| 720 | The key is being able to reach them. | 关键是能够接触到他们。 |
| 721 | So what the internet does is allows any niche obsession | 因此,互联网所做的是 允许任何特殊迷恋 |
| 722 | which could be just the weirdest thing it could be | 这可能是最奇怪的事情 它可能是 |
| 723 | like people who collect snakes to like people who like | 喜欢收集蛇的人喜欢喜欢的人 |
| 724 | to ride hot air balloons to people who like to sail | 骑着热气球 给喜欢航行的人 |
| 725 | around the world by themselves. | 独自环绕世界 |
| 726 | Just one person on a craft or someone who's obsessed | 只有一个人在船上 或一个人谁痴迷 |
| 727 | with miniature cooking like there's this whole Japanese | 做小饭就像日本人一样 |
| 728 | major cooking phenomenon or there's a show about a woman | 主要烹饪现象 或者有一个节目 关于一个女人 |
| 729 | goes in people's houses and tidies it up, right? | 去人们的房子里 并把它加起来,对不对? |
| 730 | So whatever niche obsession you have the internet allows | 所以不管你有什么特别的迷恋 互联网允许 |
| 731 | it to scale now. | 它现在规模。 |
| 732 | That's not to say that what you build will be the next | 这不是说,你建造 将是下一个 |
| 733 | Facebook或覆盖数十亿用户. | |
| 734 | But if you just want to reach 50,000 passionate people | 但如果你只想接触五万个热情的人 |
| 735 | like you there's an audience out there for you. | 像你一样,外面有观众 |
| 736 | So the beauty of this is that we have 7 billion beings | 因此,它的美丽 是,我们有70亿生命 |
| 737 | in this planet. | 在这个星球上 |
| 738 | The combinatorics of human DNA are incredible. | 人类DNA的组合法令人难以置信. |
| 739 | Everyone is completely different. | 每个人都完全不同 |
| 740 | You'll never meet any two people who are even vaguely | 你永远也见不到两个模糊不清的人 |
| 741 | similar to each other that can substitute for each other. | 相类似,可以相互替代。 |
| 742 | It's not you can say well maybe just left my life so I | 说得不好 也许只是离开了我的生活 所以我 |
| 743 | can have this other person come in and he's just like | 可以让另一个人进来,他就像 |
| 744 | maybe and I get the same feelings the same responses and | 也许和我有同样的感觉 同样的反应, |
| 745 | the same ideas. | 同样的想法。 |
| 746 | No, there are no substitutes for people. | 不,没有替代的人。 |
| 747 | People are completely unique. | 人们是完全独特的。 |
| 748 | So given that each person has different skill sets different | 所以,考虑到每个人都有不同的技能 组合不同 |
| 749 | interests different obsessions and it's that diversity that | 对不同的迷恋感兴趣 而正是这种多样性 |
| 750 | becomes a creative superpower. | 成为创造力的超级力量 |
| 751 | So each person can be creatively superb at their own unique | 所以每个人都可以创造出超能力 以自己的独特性 |
| 752 | thing but before that didn't matter because if you were | 但在此之前这不重要 因为如果你是 |
| 753 | living a little fishing village in Italy like your fishing | 住在意大利的渔村里 就像你的渔场 |
| 754 | village didn't necessarily need your completely unique skill | 村里不一定需要你独特的技能 |
| 755 | and you had to conform to just a few jobs that were available | 而且你不得不遵守 只有少数工作是可用的 |
| 756 | but now today you can be completely unique. | 但是今天你可以完全独一无二 |
| 757 | You can go out on the internet and you can find your audience | 你可以上网 找到观众 |
| 758 | and you can build a business and create a product and build | 你可以建立企业 创造产品和建设 |
| 759 | wealth and make people happy just uniquely expressing | 财富,让人民快乐 独具一格的表达 |
| 760 | yourself through the internet space of careers has been so | 在职业的互联网空间里 你一直如此 |
| 761 | broad eSports players people making millions of dollars | 大型电子体育玩家 赚了数百万美元 |
| 762 | playing Fortnite people creating videos and uploading | 播放创建视频和上传的堡垒 |
| 763 | YouTube播音员博客, | |
| 764 | Rogan. | 罗干. |
| 765 | I read true or false. | 我读真伪. |
| 766 | I don't know but I read that he's going to make about a hundred | 我不知道,但我读到,他会赚大约一百 |
| 767 | million dollars a year on his podcast and he's had two billion | 他的播客每年有100万美元 他有20亿 |
| 768 | 下载甚至PewDiePie. | |
| 769 | This is a hilarious tweet that I retweeted the other day PewDiePie | 这是我前几天发的热闹微博 PewDiePie |
| 770 | is the number one trusted name in news. | 是新闻中最信任的名字。 |
| 771 | This is a kid I think in Sweden and he's got three times the | 这是个孩子,我想在瑞典, 他有三倍 |
| 772 | distribution of the top cable news networks just on his news | 在他新闻上传播有线新闻 |
| 773 | channel. | 频道. |
| 774 | It's not even on his entertainment channel. | 连他的娱乐频道都没有 |
| 775 | The internet enables any niche interest as long as you're the | 互联网可以带来任何兴趣 只要你是 |
| 776 | best at it to scale out and the great news is because every | 最好能扩大范围 好消息是,每个 |
| 777 | human is different. | 人类不同 |
| 778 | Everyone is the best at something you being themselves. | 每个人最擅长的就是你自己 |
| 779 | Another tweet I have that is worth weaving in but didn't go | 我还有一条推文值得编织,但没有去 |
| 780 | into this tweet storm was a very simple one. | 这场推特风暴非常简单。 |
| 781 | I like things when they can compress them down because | 我喜欢那些可以压缩的东西 因为 |
| 782 | they're easy to remember it easy to hook on to but that one | 他们很容易记住 很容易钩上 但那个 |
| 783 | was escape competition through authenticity. | 是通过真实性逃避竞争 |
| 784 | So when you're competing with people it's because you're | 所以当你和别人竞争时 是因为你 |
| 785 | copying them. | 复制他们。 |
| 786 | It's because you're trying to do the same thing but every human | 那是因为你试图做同样的事情 但每个人 |
| 787 | is different don't copy. | 这是不同的,不要复制。 |
| 788 | I know we're mimetic creatures and Renee Gerard has a whole | 我知道我们是模仿生物 蕾妮·杰拉德有一套 |
| 789 | mimesis theory, but it's much easier than that. | 模拟理论,但比这容易得多。 |
| 790 | Don't imitate don't copy just do your own thing. | 不要模仿,不要复制 只是做你自己的事情。 |
| 791 | No one can compete with you on being you it's that simple and | 没有人可以和你竞争,因为你是那么简单 |
| 792 | so the more authentic you are to who you are and what you love | 所以,你越真实 你是谁,你爱什么 |
| 793 | to do the less competition you're going to have so you can | 来做你将要拥有的更少的竞争,这样你就可以 |
| 794 | escape competition through authenticity when you realize | 当你意识到通过真实性 逃避竞争 |
| 795 | that no one can compete with you on being you and normally | 没有人能和你竞争 与你和正常 |
| 796 | that would have been useless advice pre-internet post-internet | 那会是无用的忠告 前网后网 |
| 797 | you can turn that into a career talk a little bit about what | 你可以把这变成一个职业 谈一点点什么 |
| 798 | industries you should think about working in what kind of | 你应该考虑在什么样的行业工作 |
| 799 | job you should have and who you might want to work with. | 你应该有的工作 以及你可能想和谁合作。 |
| 800 | So you said one should pick an industry where you can play | 所以你说应该选一个你可以玩的行业 |
| 801 | long-term games with long-term people why yeah, this is an | 长期游戏与长期的人 为什么是的,这是一个 |
| 802 | insight into what makes Silicon Valley work and what makes | 深入了解硅谷的工作原理和作用 |
| 803 | high-trust societies work essentially all the benefits in life | 高度信任社会在生活上基本上享有所有利益 |
| 804 | come from compound interest whether it's in relationships | 无论是在恋爱中 都来自复合兴趣 |
| 805 | or making money or in learning so compound interest is a marvelous | 或赚钱 或学习 所以复加兴趣是惊人的 |
| 806 | force where it's like, you know, you start out with 1x what | 你从1x开始 |
| 807 | you have and then if you increase 20% a year for 30 years, | 如果你在30年内每年增加20%, |
| 808 | it's not that you got 30 years times 20% added on it was compounding | 并不是说,你得到了30年 倍20%加在它的复合 |
| 809 | so it just grew and grew and grew until you suddenly got a | 所以,它只是生长和成长 直到你突然得到一个 |
| 810 | massive amount of whatever it is whether it's goodwill or love | 不管是善意还是爱情 都有很多 |
| 811 | or relationships or money. | 或关系或金钱。 |
| 812 | So I think compound interest is very important for so you have | 所以我觉得复合兴趣很重要 所以你有 |
| 813 | to be able to play a long-term game and long-term games are | 能够玩长期游戏和长期游戏 |
| 814 | good not just for compound interest. | 好,不只是为复合利息。 |
| 815 | They're also good for trust. | 它们也有利于信任。 |
| 816 | If you look at prisoners dilemma type games the solution to | 如果你看囚犯困境 类型游戏的解决方案 |
| 817 | prisoners dilemma is tit for tat, which is I'm just going to | 囚犯的两难境地是奶子 塔特,这就是我只是要去 |
| 818 | do to you what you did last time to me with some forgiveness | 做你上次对我做的事 原谅我 |
| 819 | in case there was a mistake made but that only works in an | 以防出错,但只有 |
| 820 | iterated prison prisoners dilemma. | 累累的囚犯困境。 |
| 821 | In other words, we play the game multiple times. | 换句话说,我们玩过多次游戏. |
| 822 | So if you're in a situation like for example, you're in Silicon | 所以,如果你在类似的情况, 你在硅 |
| 823 | Valley where people are doing business with each other and | 谷地里人们互相做生意 |
| 824 | they know each other they trust each other then they do right | 他们互相认识,互相信任,然后做对的事 |
| 825 | by each other because they know this person will be around for | 因为他们知道这个人会来 |
| 826 | the next game and of course that doesn't always work because | 下一场比赛,当然也不一定成功,因为 |
| 827 | you can make so much money in one move in Silicon Valley. | 在硅谷的一次行动中,你可以赚很多钱。 |
| 828 | Sometimes people betray each other because they're just like | 有时人们背叛对方 因为他们就像 |
| 829 | I'm going to get rich enough about this that I don't care. | 我会得到足够的钱 关于这一点我不在乎。 |
| 830 | So there can be exceptions to all these circumstances, but | 因此,可以有例外 所有这些情况,但 |
| 831 | essentially if you want to be successful you have to work | 基本上 如果你想成功 你必须工作 |
| 832 | with other people and you have to figure out who can you trust | 和别人,你必须找出 谁可以信任你 |
| 833 | and who can you trust over a long long period of time that | 和谁可以信任 在很长一段时间, |
| 834 | you can just keep playing the game with them so that compound | 你可以继续和他们玩游戏 这样复合 |
| 835 | interest in high trust will make it easier to play the game | 对高度信任的兴趣会让游戏更容易玩 |
| 836 | and will let you collect the major rewards which are usually | 以便你们获得通常的重大的报酬, |
| 837 | at the end of the cycle. | 周期结束时。 |
| 838 | So for example, Warren Buffett has done really well as an | 例如,沃伦·巴菲特做得很好 |
| 839 | investor in the US stock market. | 美国股票市场的投资者。 |
| 840 | But the biggest reason he could do that was because the US | 但他能这么做的最大原因是美国 |
| 841 | stock market has been stable and around and didn't get for | 股票市场一直很稳定,而且没有 |
| 842 | example, seized by the government during a bad administration | 例如,在政府不善时被政府扣押 |
| 843 | or the US didn't plunge into some war. | 或者美国没有陷入战争 |
| 844 | The underlying platform didn't get destroyed. | 基础平台没有被破坏. |
| 845 | So in his case, he was playing a long-term game and the | 所以在他的案子里 他玩了个长期游戏 |
| 846 | trust came from the US stock market stability in Silicon | 信任来自美国硅股票市场的稳定 |
| 847 | 谷 Valley. | |
| 848 | The trust comes from the network of people in the small | 信任来自于 网络的人在小 |
| 849 | geographic area that you figure out over time who you can | 随着时间的推移,你能找到的地理区域 |
| 850 | work with who you can if you keep switching locations, you | 如果你继续切换位置 就能和谁合作 |
| 851 | keep switching groups. | 继续切换组。 |
| 852 | Let's say you started out in the woodworking industry and | 假设你是从木工行业开始的 |
| 853 | you build up a network there and you're working hard. | 你在那里建立网络,你努力工作。 |
| 854 | You're trying to build a product in the woodworking industry | 你想在木工行业制造产品 |
| 855 | and suddenly another industry comes along that's adjacent | 突然间又出现了一个工业 毗邻的 |
| 856 | but different but you don't really know anybody in it and | 但不一样,但你并不认识任何人 |
| 857 | you want to dive in and make money there. | 你想潜进去赚钱 |
| 858 | If you keep hopping from industry to know actually I need | 如果你继续从行业购物 来知道实际上我需要 |
| 859 | to open a line of electric car stations for electric car | 开通电动车站 |
| 860 | refueling. | 补油。 |
| 861 | That might make sense. | 这也许有道理。 |
| 862 | It might be the best opportunity but every time you reset | 这也许是最好的机会 但你每次重设 |
| 863 | every time you wander out of where you built your network, | 每次你走出你的网络 |
| 864 | you're going to be started from scratch. | 你会从头开始 |
| 865 | You're not going to know who to trust. | 你不会知道该相信谁 |
| 866 | They're not going to trust you. | 他们不会相信你的 |
| 867 | There are also industries in which people are transient by | 也有一些行业,人们通过 |
| 868 | definition. | 定义。 |
| 869 | They're always coming in and going out politics is an | 他们总是进进出出 政治是一个 |
| 870 | example of that right in politics new people are being | 政治中这项权利的例子 新的人正在 |
| 871 | elected. | 当选。 |
| 872 | You see in politics that when you have a lot of old-timers | 在政治中你可以看到,当你有很多老家伙 |
| 873 | like the Senate people have been around for a long time | 就像元老院的人 已经在这里很久了 |
| 874 | and they've been career politicians. | 他们是职业政治家 |
| 875 | Yeah, there's a lot of downside to career politicians like | 对 职业政客来说有很多缺点 |
| 876 | corruption but an upside is they actually get deals done | 腐败,但有一个反面是 他们实际上得到的交易做 |
| 877 | with each other because they know the other person is going | 因为他们知道对方要去 |
| 878 | to be in the same position 10 years from now and they got | 10年后,他们就在同一位置 |
| 879 | to keep dealing with them. | 继续对付他们 |
| 880 | So they might as well learn how to cooperate. | 所以他们最好学会如何合作。 |
| 881 | Whereas every time you get like a new incoming freshman | 而每次你得到像一个新的新生 |
| 882 | class in the House of Representatives which turns over | 众议院的班级 |
| 883 | every two years the big wave election nothing gets done | 两年一次的大浪选举 什么都没有做 |
| 884 | because there's a lot of fighting because I just got here. | 因为我刚到这儿 有很多战斗 |
| 885 | I don't know you. | 我不认识你 |
| 886 | I don't know if you're going to be around. | 我不知道你会不会在附近 |
| 887 | Why should I work with you rather than just trying to do | 我为什么要跟你合作 而不是仅仅努力去做 |
| 888 | whatever I think is right? | 我觉得对吗? |
| 889 | So it's important to pick an industry where you can play | 所以,重要的是选择一个行业 你可以玩 |
| 890 | long-term games and with long-term people so those people | 长期游戏 和长期的人 所以那些人 |
| 891 | have to signal that they're going to be around for a long | 一定要发出信号,他们会在附近待很久 |
| 892 | time that they're ethical and their ethics are visible to | 时间,他们道德 和他们的道德可见 |
| 893 | their actions in a long-term game. | 他们的行动在长期游戏。 |
| 894 | It seems that everybody is making each other rich and in | 看来大家都在互相致富 |
| 895 | a short-term game it seems like everybody is making themselves | 一个短期游戏,似乎每个人都在自制 |
| 896 | rich. | 有钱 |
| 897 | I think that is a brilliant formulation. | 我认为这是一个非常出色的提法。 |
| 898 | Yeah in a long-term game. | 是啊,在一个长期游戏。 |
| 899 | It's positive some we're all baking the pie together. | 我们一起烤馅饼是肯定的 |
| 900 | We're trying to make it as big as possible in a short-term | 我们试图在短期内尽可能大 |
| 901 | game. | 游戏。 |
| 902 | We're cutting up the pie. | 我们要切掉馅饼了 |
| 903 | Now. | 现在 |
| 904 | This is not to excuse the socialists right the socialists | 这不是为社会主义者对社会主义者的正确辩护 |
| 905 | the people who are not involved in baking the pie and who | 没有参与烘焙馅饼的人 |
| 906 | show up at the end and say I want a slice or I want the | 出现在最后,说我要一个片或我想要 |
| 907 | whole pie they show up at the guns, but I think a good | 整个派,他们出现在枪, 但我认为一个好 |
| 908 | leader doesn't take credit a good leader tries to inspire | 领导者不把功劳当好领导者 试图激励 |
| 909 | peoples that the team get the job done and then things get | 团队的工作完成,然后事情得到 |
| 910 | divided up according to fairness and who contributed how | 按照公平原则分开,由谁出资 |
| 911 | much or as close to it as possible and took a risk as | 尽可能靠近它 并承担了风险 |
| 912 | opposed to just whoever has the longest knife the sharpest | 反对谁有最长的刀 最锋利 |
| 913 | knives at the end. | 刀在端头. |
| 914 | So these next two tweets are play iterated games all returns | 接下来的两条微博都是玩游戏的 |
| 915 | in life whether in wealth relationships or knowledge come | 无论是财富关系还是知识的到来 |
| 916 | from compound interest. | 从复合利息。 |
| 917 | Yeah, when you've been doing business with somebody you've | 是啊,当你一直 与某人做生意,你有 |
| 918 | been friends with somebody for 10 years 20 years 30 years it | 和别人交了十年 二十年 三十年 |
| 919 | just gets better and better because you trust them so easy | 只是越来越好,因为你信任他们那么容易 |
| 920 | if the friction goes down you can do bigger and bigger | 如果摩擦下来,你可以做更大的,更大的 |
| 921 | things together. | 东西在一起。 |
| 922 | For example, you know the simplest one is getting married | 比如说,你知道最简单的是结婚 |
| 923 | to someone having kids and raising children like that's | 给一个有孩子 抚养孩子的人 |
| 924 | compound interest right investing in those relationships | 投资于这些关系的复利权利 |
| 925 | those relations end up being invaluable compared to more | 这些关系最终比 |
| 926 | casual relationships. | 临时的关系。 |
| 927 | It's true in health and fitness, you know, the fitter | 在健康和健身方面都是真实的,你知道的,适者 |
| 928 | you are the easier just to stay fit where's the more you | 你是比较容易保持 适合在哪里 你越多 |
| 929 | deteriorate your body the harder just to come back and | 让你的身体恶化 越难回来 |
| 930 | claw your way back to a baseline it requires heroic | 抓住你的路回到基线 它需要英雄 |
| 931 | acts regarding compound interest. | 涉及复合利息的行为。 |
| 932 | I think I saw you retweet something a while back. | 刚才我看到你再发短信了 |
| 933 | Maybe it was from Ed Latimore. | 也许是艾德·拉蒂莫的 |
| 934 | It was something along the lines of get some traction get | 就像是得到一些牵引力 |
| 935 | purchase and don't lose it. | 购买和不要失去它。 |
| 936 | So the idea was to gain some initial traction and never fall | 所以这个想法是获得一些初始的牵引力 并且永远不坠落 |
| 937 | back. | 回来 |
| 938 | Just keep ratcheting up and up. | 继续往上转 |
| 939 | I don't remember it exactly. | 我不记得了 |
| 940 | But I think that was right. | 但我认为这是正确的。 |
| 941 | Yeah, I was like get traction and don't let go. | 是的,我就像得到 牵引和不要放手。 |
| 942 | It was a good one. | 这是一个很好的。 |
| 943 | Yeah in terms of pick people to work with that have high | 是啊,在挑选人 与有高 |
| 944 | intelligence high energy and high integrity. | 高能量和高完整性 |
| 945 | I find that's the three-part checklist that you cannot | 我认为这是三部分的检查表,你不能 |
| 946 | compromise on you need someone who's smart or they're heading | 妥协吧,你需要一个聪明人,或者他们正在前进 |
| 947 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你走错方向了 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}你不会进监狱的 | |
| 948 | the right place. | 正确的地点。 |
| 949 | You need someone high energy because the world is full of | 你需要一个高能量的人 因为世界充满了 |
| 950 | smart lazy people. | 聪明懒汉. |
| 951 | We all know people in our lives are really smart, but you | 我们都知道生活中的人很聪明 但你 |
| 952 | know can't get out of bed or lift a finger and we also know | 知道不能下床或举起手指 我们也知道 |
| 953 | people who are very high energy, but not that smart. | 高能量的人,但没那么聪明。 |
| 954 | So they work hard, but they're running in the wrong direction | 所以他们努力工作,但他们跑的方向不对 |
| 955 | and smart. | 和聪明。 |
| 956 | It's not a pejorative. | 亦非贬义. |
| 957 | It's not meant to be like someone smart. | 谓非有为智者. |
| 958 | Someone else is stupid, but it's more that everyone smart | 别人很蠢,但更聪明的是 |
| 959 | at different things. | 在不同的事物。 |
| 960 | So depending on what you want to do. | 所以取决于你想做什么。 |
| 961 | Well, you have to find someone who's smart at that thing and | 你得找一个很聪明的人 |
| 962 | then energy a lot of times people are unmotivated for a | 那么,能量很多时候 人们没有动机 |
| 963 | specific thing, but they're not motivated for other things. | 具体的事情, 但他们没有动机 其他的东西。 |
| 964 | So for example, someone might be really unmotivated to go to | 比如说,有人可能真的没有动机去 |
| 965 | a job and sit in an office, but they might be really motivated | 工作,坐在办公室里, 但他们可能真的有动机 |
| 966 | to go paint right on that case. | 去给那个案子画画 |
| 967 | They should be a painter. | 他们应该是一个画家。 |
| 968 | They should be putting art up on the internet trying to figure | 他们应该把艺术放在互联网上 试图去想 |
| 969 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}而不是穿 | |
| 970 | a collar around their neck and going to a dreary job and then | 项圈缠住他们的脖子 然后去干活 然后 |
| 971 | high integrity is the most important because otherwise you | 高品德是最重要的 因为否则你 |
| 972 | got the other two what you have is you have a smart and | 有了另外两个 你有一个聪明人 |
| 973 | hard-working crook who's eventually going to cheat you. | 勤奋的骗子 谁最终会欺骗你。 |
| 974 | So you have to figure out the person's high integrity. | 所以你得弄清楚这个人的高度正直 |
| 975 | As we talked about the way you do that is through signals and | 正如我们谈论的 你如何做到这一点 通过信号和 |
| 976 | signals is what they do not what they say. | 信号不是他们所说的 |
| 977 | It's all the nonverbal stuff that people do when they think | 这是所有非语言的东西 当人们认为 |
| 978 | nobody's looking with respect to the energy. | 没人在看能量 |
| 979 | There was this interesting thing from Sam Altman a while | 萨姆·阿尔特曼有件有趣的事 |
| 980 | back where he was talking about delegation and he was saying | 他当时在谈论代表团 他说 |
| 981 | one of the important things for delegation is delegate to | 代表团的一个重要事项是: |
| 982 | people who are actually good at the thing that you want them | 真正擅长你想要的东西的人 |
| 983 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们得去 | |
| 984 | It's the most obvious thing, but it seems like you want to | 这是最明显的事情,但似乎你想 |
| 985 | partner with people who are naturally going to do the things | 和那些自然会做的事情的人合作 |
| 986 | that you want them to do. | 你希望他们这样做。 |
| 987 | Yeah, I almost won't start a company or hire a person or work | 是啊,我几乎不会创办公司 或雇用一个人或工作 |
| 988 | with somebody if I just don't think they're into what I want | 和别人在一起,如果我不认为 他们喜欢我想要的 |
| 989 | them to do when I was younger. | 我年轻的时候,他们就会这么做 |
| 990 | I used to try and talk people into things. | 我曾经尝试 和人交谈的东西。 |
| 991 | I was an idea that you can sell someone into doing something | 我是一个想法,你可以 出卖某人做一些事情 |
| 992 | but you can't you can't keep them motivated. | 但你不能保持他们的动机。 |
| 993 | You can get them inspired initially. | 你可以先给他们灵感 |
| 994 | It might work if you're a king like Henry the fifth and you | 如果你是像亨利一样的国王... |
| 995 | try to get them to just charge into battle and then they'll | 让他们投入战斗 然后他们就会 |
| 996 | figure it out. | 想办法 |
| 997 | But if you're trying to keep someone motivated for the long | 但如果你想让某个人 长久地 |
| 998 | term that motivation has to come intrinsically you can't just | 动机的内在性,你不能只是 |
| 999 | create it nor can you be the crutch for them if they don't | 如果他们不这样做,你绝不能做他们的监护者。 |
| 1000 | have that intrinsic motivation. | 有内在的动机。 |
| 1001 | So you have to make sure people actually are high-energy and | 所以,你必须保证 人们实际上是高能量和 |
| 1002 | want to do what you want them to do or what you want to work | 想要做你想做的 或者你想工作 |
| 1003 | with them. | 与他们。 |
| 1004 | Reading signals is very very important signals are what people | 阅读信号是非常重要的信号 是人 |
| 1005 | do despite what they say. | 尽管他们说。 |
| 1006 | So it's important to pay attention to subtle signals. | 所以必须注意微妙的信号. |
| 1007 | We all know this socially if someone treats a waiter waitress | 我们都知道,如果有人对待服务员 |
| 1008 | in a restaurant really badly, then it's only a matter of time | 在餐厅里很糟,那只是时间问题 |
| 1009 | until they treat you badly if somebody screws over an enemy | 如果有人在敌人面前捣乱 就会对你不好 |
| 1010 | and is vindictive towards them. | 并惩罚他们。 |
| 1011 | Well, it's only a matter of time before they redefine you from | 好吧,这只是时间问题 他们重新定义你从 |
| 1012 | friend to enemy and you feel their wrath. | 敌人的朋友,你感觉到他们的愤怒。 |
| 1013 | So angry outraged vindictive short-term thinking people are | 所以愤怒的愤怒 报复性的短期思考 人们是 |
| 1014 | essentially that way in many interactions in their life. | 在他们生活中的许多互动中,基本上都是这样。 |
| 1015 | People are oddly consistent. | 人们是奇怪的一致。 |
| 1016 | It's one of the things you learn about them. | 这是你了解的其中之一 |
| 1017 | So you want to find long-term people you want to find people | 所以,你想找到长期的人,你想找的人 |
| 1018 | who seem irrationally ethical. | 他们似乎不合乎道德 |
| 1019 | For example, I had one friend of mine whose company I invested | 例如,我有一个朋友 我投资的公司 |
| 1020 | in and the company failed and he could have wiped out all the | 公司失败了 他本可以消灭一切 |
| 1021 | investors, but he kept putting more and more personal money | 投资人,但他不断投放 越来越多的个人钱 |
| 1022 | in through three different pivots. | 穿过三个不同的小洞 |
| 1023 | He put personal money in until the company finally succeeded | 他把个人的钱放进去 直到公司成功 |
| 1024 | and in the process. | 并在此过程中。 |
| 1025 | He never wiped out the investors and I was always grateful | 他从不消灭投资人 我一直很感激 |
| 1026 | to him for that. | 给他的这个。 |
| 1027 | I said like why that's amazing that you know, you are so good | 我说了为什么你这么厉害 |
| 1028 | to your investors. | 给您的投资者。 |
| 1029 | You didn't wipe them out and he got offended by that. | 你没有消灭他们 他因此生气 |
| 1030 | He said I didn't do it for you. | 他说我不是为了你 |
| 1031 | I didn't do it for my investors. | 我不是为了我的投资者 |
| 1032 | I did it for me. | 我是为了我 |
| 1033 | It's my own self-esteem. | 即是自负. |
| 1034 | It's what I care about. | 这就是我关心的。 |
| 1035 | That's how I live my life. | 这就是我的生活。 |
| 1036 | That's the kind of person you want to work with another quote | 这就是那种你想用另一个引语工作的人 |
| 1037 | that I like I would tweet on this. | 我喜欢在推特上说 |
| 1038 | I think I read this somewhere else recently. | 我最近在别的地方读了这个 |
| 1039 | So I'm not taking credit for this, but I modified a little | 所以,我不为这功劳, 但我修改了一点 |
| 1040 | bit which is that self-esteem is a reputation that you have | 也就是自尊是你们有的名声 |
| 1041 | with yourself. | 与你自己。 (笑声) |
| 1042 | You always know so good people moral people ethical people | 你总是那么好的人 道德的人 道德的人 |
| 1043 | easy to work with people reliable people tend to have | 与可靠人合作往往容易 |
| 1044 | very high self-esteem because they have very good reputation | 高度的自尊 因为他们有非常好的声誉 |
| 1045 | with themselves and they understand that it's not ego | 他们明白这不是自我 |
| 1046 | self-esteem and ego are different things because ego can | 自尊和自我是不同的事物 因为自我可以 |
| 1047 | be undeserved but self-esteem at least you feel like you lived | 不值得但自尊 至少你觉得自己活着 |
| 1048 | up to your own internal moral code of ethics and so it's very | 最高到你的内部道德 道德守则,所以它非常 |
| 1049 | hard to work with people who end up being low integrity and | 很难与人合作 那些最终是低廉和 |
| 1050 | it's hard to figure out who's high integrity and low | 很难确定谁是高正直和低贱的 |
| 1051 | integrity generally the more someone is saying that they're | 人越是说他们 |
| 1052 | moral and ethical and high integrity the less likely there | 道德、道德和高尚的品德 |
| 1053 | to be that way. | 以这种方式。 |
| 1054 | It's very much like status signaling if you overtly bid | 这就像状态信号 如果你公开出价 |
| 1055 | for status if you overly talk about being high status that | 如果你过度谈论高地位 |
| 1056 | is a low status move if you openly talk about how honest | 如果你公开说出有多诚实,那就太低级了 |
| 1057 | and reliable and trustworthy you are you're probably not | 可靠和值得信赖的你 你可能不是 |
| 1058 | that honest and trustworthy. | 诚实可靠 |
| 1059 | That is a characteristic of con men. | 这是骗子的一个特征。 |
| 1060 | So yeah, pick an industry in which you can play long-term | 所以,选择一个行业 你可以玩长期 |
| 1061 | games with long-term people. | 与长期人士游戏. |
| 1062 | Let's do this last tweet. | 让我们做这最后的微博。 |
| 1063 | You said don't partner with cynics and pessimists their | 你说不要和愤世嫉俗的人结为伙伴 |
| 1064 | beliefs are self-fulfill and yeah, essentially to create | 信仰是自我实现的,是的,本质上是创造 |
| 1065 | things you have to be a rational optimist rational in the | 事情你必须是一个理性的乐观主义者 理性在 |
| 1066 | sense that you have to you'll see the world for what it | 感觉你必须面对世界 |
| 1067 | really is and yet you have to be optimistic about your own | 真的,你必须对自己乐观 |
| 1068 | capabilities and your capability to get things done. | 以及你把事情办好的能力 |
| 1069 | We all know people who are consistently pessimistic who | 我们都知道有些人总是悲观 |
| 1070 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}会击落每个人生命中的一切 | |
| 1071 | the helpful critical guy, right? | 那个有帮助的批评者,对吧? |
| 1072 | He thinks he's being helpful, but he's actually being critical | 他认为他有帮助,但他其实是批评 |
| 1073 | and he's a downer on everything that person will not only never | 而他却对一切感到沮丧 这个人不仅永远不会 |
| 1074 | do anything great in their lives. | 做他们生活中伟大的事 |
| 1075 | They'll prevent other people around them for doing something | 他们会阻止周围的人做一些事情 |
| 1076 | great. | 伟大的。 |
| 1077 | They think their job is to shoot holes in things and it's | 他们认为他们的工作是打洞的东西,这是 |
| 1078 | okay to shoot holes in things as long as you come with the | 只要你们能一起来 |
| 1079 | solution. | 解决方案。 |
| 1080 | There's also the classic like military line either lead follow | 还有经典的,如军事线 要么领队跟着 |
| 1081 | or get out of the way and these people want a fourth option | 或者让开 这些人想要第四个选择 |
| 1082 | where they don't want to lead they don't want to follow but | 在那里他们不想领导 他们不想跟随,但 |
| 1083 | they don't want to get out of the way they want to tell you | 他们不想离开他们想告诉你的路 |
| 1084 | why the things not going to work and all the really successful | 为什么事情不会起作用 所有真正成功的 |
| 1085 | people. | 人们 |
| 1086 | I know have a very strong action bias. | 我知道有很强的动作偏差。 |
| 1087 | They just do things the easiest way to figure out if something's | 他们只是做一些最容易 找出事情 |
| 1088 | viable or not is by doing it at least do the first step in | 是否可行至少是第一步 |
| 1089 | the second step in the third and then decide so if you want | 第三步的第二步,然后决定 如果你想 |
| 1090 | to be successful in life creating wealth or having good | 在生活中成功创造财富或善良 |
| 1091 | relationships or being fit or even being happy you need to | 关系或适合 甚至快乐 你需要 |
| 1092 | have an action bias towards getting what you want and you | 行动偏向于获得你想要的 和你 |
| 1093 | have to be optimistic about it. | 必须对此持乐观态度。 |
| 1094 | Not irrationally. | 没有不理智的。 |
| 1095 | There's nothing worse than someone who's just like foolhardy | 没有什么比像傻子一样的人更糟糕的了 |
| 1096 | and chasing it's not work. | 追寻它不是工作。 |
| 1097 | That's a rational optimist, but you have to be rational know | 这是一个理性乐观主义者, 但你必须理性知道 |
| 1098 | all the pitfalls know the downsides but still keep your | 所有陷阱都知道缺点 但仍留着你的 |
| 1099 | chin up when you've got one life on this planet. | 当你有生命在这个星球上。 |
| 1100 | Why not try to build something big? | 为什么不试着做点大的事呢? |
| 1101 | This is the beauty of Elon Musk and why I think he inspires | 这是伊隆·穆斯克的美丽,我为什么认为他激励 |
| 1102 | so many people is just because he takes on really really big | 这么多人只是因为他 承担真的很大 |
| 1103 | audacious tasks and he provides an example for people to think | 大胆的任务,他为人们提供了思考的榜样 |
| 1104 | big and it takes a lot of work to build even small things. | 建造小东西需要很多工作 |
| 1105 | I don't think the corner grocery store owner is working any | 我觉得街角杂货店老板没有工作 |
| 1106 | less hard than Elon Musk or pouring any less sweat and toil | 不如伊隆穆斯克硬 或倒下汗水和劳累 |
| 1107 | into it maybe even more but for whatever reason, you know | 也许更多,但无论出于什么原因 |
| 1108 | education circumstance. | 教育情况。 |
| 1109 | They didn't get the chance to think as big so the outcome is | 他们没机会想得那么大 结果就是 |
| 1110 | not as big. | 没那么大。 |
| 1111 | So it's just better to think big obviously rationally within | 因此,它只是更好 思考大显然 理性的内心 |
| 1112 | your means to stay optimistic the cynics and the pessimists | 你的手段是保持乐观 愤世嫉俗和悲观主义者 |
| 1113 | what they're really saying and fortunate, but they're saying | 他们真正说的话很幸运,但他们在说 |
| 1114 | I've given up. | 我放弃了 |
| 1115 | I don't think I can do anything and so the world to me just | 我觉得我什么也做不了 所以这个世界就对我 |
| 1116 | looks like a world where nobody can do anything. | 看起来像一个没有人能做什么的世界。 |
| 1117 | And so why should you go do something because if you fail | 那你为什么要去做点什么 因为如果你失败了 |
| 1118 | then I'm right, which is great. | 那我是对的,这是伟大的。 |
| 1119 | But if you succeed then you just make me look bad. | 但是如果你成功的话 你就让我看起来很糟 |
| 1120 | Yeah, it's probably better to be an irrational optimist than | 是啊,它可能更好 作为一个非理性乐观主义者 比 |
| 1121 | it is to be a rational cynic. | 这是理性的愤世嫉俗 |
| 1122 | Yeah, there's a completely rational frame on why you | 是啊,有一个完全合理的框架 关于你为什么 |
| 1123 | should be an optimist. | 应该是一个乐观主义者。 |
| 1124 | Historically, if you go back 2,000 years 5,000 years 10,000 | 历史上,如果你回到两千年 5000年 10,000年 |
| 1125 | years two people are wandering through a jungle. | 两年来,两个人在丛林中徘徊 |
| 1126 | They hear a tiger one's an optimist and says oh, it's not | 他们听到一只老虎是乐观主义者 说,哦,不是 |
| 1127 | headed our way. | 我们的路。 |
| 1128 | The other one says I'm a pessimist. | 另一个说我是个悲观主义者 |
| 1129 | I'm out of here and the pessimist runs and survives and | 我走了 悲观派跑了 活了下来 |
| 1130 | the optimist gets eaten. | 乐观主义者被吃掉了 |
| 1131 | So we're descended from pessimists. | 所以我们是悲观派的后裔 |
| 1132 | We're genetically hardwired to be pessimists, but modern | 我们的基因是坚固的 悲观主义者,但现代的 |
| 1133 | society is far far safer. | 社会更加安全。 |
| 1134 | There are no tigers wandering down the street. | 街上没有老虎 |
| 1135 | It's very unlikely that you will end up in total ruin. | 你不可能彻底毁灭 |
| 1136 | Although you should avoid total ruin much more likely that | 虽然你应该避免完全毁灭 更可能 |
| 1137 | the upside is unlimited and the downside is limited. | 颠倒是无限的,负面是有限的。 |
| 1138 | So adapting for modern society means overriding your pessimism | 所以适应现代社会意味着压倒你的悲观 |
| 1139 | and taking slightly irrationally optimistic bets because | 并且打着有点不合理乐观的赌注 因为 |
| 1140 | the upside is unlimited. | 颠倒是无限的。 |
| 1141 | 如果你开始下一个SpaceX或Tesla或Uber,你可以 | |
| 1142 | make billions of dollars of value for society and for | 创造数十亿美元的社会价值和 |
| 1143 | yourself and change the world. | 改变世界 |
| 1144 | And if you fail, that's a big deal. | 如果你失败了,那是个大问题。 |
| 1145 | You lost a few million dollars of investor money and they've | 你损失了几百万的投资人的钱,他们已经 |
| 1146 | got plenty more and that's the bet they take the chances | 还有很多钱 赌注就是他们冒险 |
| 1147 | that you will succeed. | 你会成功的 |
| 1148 | It made sense to be pessimistic in the past. | 过去悲观亦复如是. |
| 1149 | It makes sense to be optimistic today, especially if you're | 今天乐观有道理,特别是如果你 |
| 1150 | educated living in a first world country, even a third | 生活在第一世界国家,甚至三分之一 |
| 1151 | world country. | 世界国家。 |
| 1152 | I actually think the economic opportunity in third world | 其实我觉得第三世界的经济机会 |
| 1153 | countries are much larger. | 国家的规模要大得多。 |
| 1154 | The one thing you have to avoid is the risk of ruin. | 你唯一要避免的就是毁灭的危险 |
| 1155 | Ruin means to stay out of jail. | 鲁因的意思是远离监狱。 |
| 1156 | So don't do anything that's illegal. | 所以别做违法的事 |
| 1157 | It's never worth it to wear an orange jumpsuit and stay out | 穿一件橙色的跳伞服,别出来 |
| 1158 | of total catastrophic loss. | 彻底的灾难性损失。 |
| 1159 | That could mean that you stay out of things that could be | 那可能意味着你别插手可能的事 |
| 1160 | physically dangerous, hurt your body. | 身体危险,伤害你的身体。 |
| 1161 | You have to watch your health and stay out of things that | 你一定要注意健康 远离那些事 |
| 1162 | can cause you to lose all of your capital, all of your | 让你失去所有资本,所有资本 |
| 1163 | savings. | 储蓄。 |
| 1164 | It'll gamble everything at one go, but you take rationally | 它会赌一切一去, 但你理智地对待 |
| 1165 | optimistic bets with big upside. | 乐观的赌注,大颠倒。 |
| 1166 | I think there's people that will try and build up your | 我想有些人会试着建立你的 |
| 1167 | ideas and build on your ideas, no matter how far-fetched | 无论你的想法有多牵强 |
| 1168 | they might seem. | 他们可能看起来像。 |
| 1169 | And then there are people who will list out all the obvious | 然后有人会列出所有明显的 |
| 1170 | exceptions, no matter how obvious they are. | 例外,不管它们有多明显。 |
| 1171 | And fortunately in the startup world, I don't even really | 幸运的是,在创业世界里,我甚至没有真正 |
| 1172 | get exposed to the people that are giving you the obvious | 暴露在那些给你机会的人面前 |
| 1173 | exceptions and all the reasons it's not going to work. | 特例和所有原因都行不通 |
| 1174 | I barely get exposed to that anymore. | 我几乎不再接触那个了。 |
| 1175 | 这就是Twitter的用途. | |
| 1176 | Scott Adams got so annoyed by this that he came up with | 斯科特·亚当斯对此感到很烦恼 于是他想出了 |
| 1177 | the phrase, an acronym, which is, but of course there are | 这个词,一个缩写,是, 但当然有 |
| 1178 | obvious exceptions, B-O-C-T-A-O-E, and he used to like | 很明显的例外,B -O -C -T |
| 1179 | pin that acronym at the end of his articles for a while. | 在文章结尾处贴上这个缩写 |
| 1180 | But Twitter is just like overrun with nitpickers. | 但推特就像被吸食硝酸盐的人所淹没。 |
| 1181 | And where it's exactly as you're pointing out, Silicon | 和你说的一样,硅 |
| 1182 | Valley has learned that the upside is so great that you | 谷子已经得知, 颠倒是如此伟大的你 |
| 1183 | never look down on the slobby kid who's wearing a hoodie | 永远不要看不起那个穿连衣帽的荡妇 |
| 1184 | and has like coffee on his shoes and just looks like a | 他的鞋上有咖啡 看起来像个 |
| 1185 | slob because you don't know if he's going to be the next | 因为你不知道他是不是下一个 |
| 1186 | Mark Zuckerberg or the next Reid Hoffman. | 马克·扎克伯格或下一个里德·霍夫曼. |
| 1187 | So you've got to treat everybody with respect. | 所以你要尊重每个人 |
| 1188 | You've got to look up to every possibility and opportunity | 你要注意所有的可能性和机会 |
| 1189 | because the upside is so unlimited and the downside is | 因为颠倒是无限的 负面是 |
| 1190 | so limited in the modern world, especially with financial | 在现代世界如此有限,特别是在金融领域 |
| 1191 | assets and instruments. | 资产和工具。 |
| 1192 | You want to talk a little bit about the skills that you | 你想谈谈你的技能 |
| 1193 | need in particular, specific knowledge, accountability, | 具体需要,具体知识、问责制、 |
| 1194 | leverage and judgment. | 杠杆和判断。 |
| 1195 | So the first tweet in this area is arm yourself with specific | 所以这个区域的第一个微博 是用特定的武装自己 |
| 1196 | knowledge, accountability and leverage and I'll throw in | 知识,责任和杠杆,我会投入 |
| 1197 | judgment as well. | 判断也一样。 |
| 1198 | I don't think you covered that in that particular tweet. | 我想你没有在那个微博里说 |
| 1199 | If you want to make money, you have to get paid at scale | 要想赚钱,就要按规模赚钱 |
| 1200 | and why you that's accountability at scale, that's | 以及你为什么 问责的规模,这就是 |
| 1201 | {\fn黑体\fs20\shad2\2aH82\3aH20\4aH33\fscx95\3cH592001\be1}只要你得到报酬 而不是别人 | |
| 1202 | else getting paid that specific knowledge. | 否则得到报酬 具体的知识。 |
| 1203 | So specific knowledge is probably the hardest thing to | 所以,具体的知识可能是最难的 |
| 1204 | get across in this whole tweet storm and it's probably the | 在整个推特风暴中渡过 这可能是 |
| 1205 | thing that people get the most confused about the thing is | 人们最困惑的是 |
| 1206 | that we have this idea that everything can be taught. | 我们有这个想法,一切可以教。 |
| 1207 | Everything can be taught in school and it's not true that | 一切都可以在学校教 不是真的 |
| 1208 | everything can be taught. | 一切众生皆能教化. |
| 1209 | In fact, the most interesting things cannot be taught but | 事实上,最有趣的事情是不能教的 |
| 1210 | everything can be learned and very often that learning either | 一切可以学习 经常学习 |
| 1211 | comes from some innate characteristics in your DNA or | 来源于你DNA中的一些固有特征 |
| 1212 | it could be through your childhood where you learn soft | 可能在你的童年中学会柔软 |
| 1213 | skills, which are very, very hard to teach later on in life | 技能,这是非常,非常难 教授以后的生活 |
| 1214 | or it's something that is brand new. | 或者这是全新的东西。 |
| 1215 | So nobody else knows how to do it either or it's true on | 所以,没有人知道如何做到这一点 或者它是真实的 |
| 1216 | the job training because your pattern matching into highly | 职业训练,因为你的模式高度匹配 |
| 1217 | complex environments building judgment in a specific domain | 在特定领域建立判断力的复杂环境 |
| 1218 | classic examples investing, but it could be in anything. | 典型的例子投资,但它可能是在任何东西。 |
| 1219 | It could be in judgment in running a fleet of trucks could | 经营一队卡车可能 |
| 1220 | be judgment in weather forecasting. | 对天气预报有判断力 |
| 1221 | So specific knowledge is the knowledge that you care about | 所以,具体的知识是 你关心的知识 |
| 1222 | especially if you're later in life. | 特别是如果你在晚年的生活。 |
| 1223 | Let's say you're post-20, 21, 22, you almost don't get to | 假设你是20,21,22,你几乎没有得到 |
| 1224 | choose which specific knowledge you have rather you get to | 选择您拥有哪些特定知识 |
| 1225 | look at what you have already built by that point in time | 看看你已经造出来的东西 |
| 1226 | and then you can build on top of it. | 然后,你可以在它的顶部。 |
| 1227 | The first thing to notice about specific knowledge is that | 首先要注意的是, |
| 1228 | you can't be trained for it. | 你无法接受训练 |
| 1229 | If you can be trained for it, if you can go to a class and | 如果你能接受训练 如果你能上一个班 |
| 1230 | learn specific knowledge, then somebody else can be trained | 学会具体的知识,然后可以训练别人 |
| 1231 | for it too and then we can mass produce and mass train people | 这样我们就能大量生产 大量训练人 |
| 1232 | heck we can even program computers to do it and eventually | 我们甚至可以编程电脑来完成,最终 |
| 1233 | we can program robots to walk around doing it. | 我们可以编程机器人走来走去 |
| 1234 | So if that's the case, then you're extremely replaceable | 所以,如果是这样的话,那么你是非常可以替代的 |
| 1235 | and all we have to pay you is the minimum wage that we have | 我们只付你最低工资 |
| 1236 | to pay you to get you to do it when there are lots of other | 付你钱让你做 当有很多其他的 |
| 1237 | takers who can be trained to do it. | 能受修行者摄持. |
| 1238 | So really your returns just devolve into your cost of | 所以,真的,你的回报 刚刚转移到你的成本 |
| 1239 | training plus the return on investment on that training. | 培训加上对培训的投资回报。 |
| 1240 | So you really want to pick up specific knowledge. | 所以,你真的想 收集具体的知识。 |
| 1241 | You need your schooling. | 你需要上学 |
| 1242 | You need your training to be able to capitalize on the | 你需要你的训练才能利用 |
| 1243 | best specific knowledge. | 最具体的知识。 |
| 1244 | But the part of it that you get paid for is the specific | 但你得到报酬的部分是具体的 |
| 1245 | knowledge. | 知识。 |
| 1246 | For example, someone who goes and gets a degree in | 比如说,一个人去 并获得学位 |
| 1247 | psychology and then becomes a salesperson. | 心理学然后成为一个推销员。 |
| 1248 | Well, if they were already a formidable salesperson had | 那么,如果他们已经是一个可怕的推销员 |
| 1249 | great salesmanship to begin with then the psychology | 伟大的销售技巧从心理学开始 |
| 1250 | degree is leverage. | 学位是杠杆。 |
| 1251 | It arms them and they do much better at sales. | 它武装他们,他们在销售方面做得更好。 |
| 1252 | But if they were always an introvert never very good at | 但是,如果他们总是 一个内向者不擅长 |
| 1253 | sales and they're trying to use psychology to learn sales, | 他们试图用心理学来学习销售, |
| 1254 | they're just not going to get that great at it. | 他们只是不会得到那么好的。 |
| 1255 | Specific knowledge is found much more by pursuing your | 通过追求你 |
| 1256 | innate talents, your genuine curiosity and your passion. | 天赋,你真正的好奇心和激情 |
| 1257 | It's not by going to school for whatever is the hottest | 不是因为上学才最热的 |
| 1258 | job. | 任务。 |
| 1259 | It's not for going into whatever field investors say is | 这不是去 任何外地投资者说 |
| 1260 | the hottest. | 最热的。 |
| 1261 | Very often specific knowledge is at the edge of knowledge. | 具体知识往往处于知识的边缘。 |
| 1262 | It's also stuff that's just being figured out or is really | 也有些事情是刚刚才想出来的 或者真的 |
| 1263 | hard to figure out. | 难解. |
| 1264 | So if you're not a hundred percent into it somebody else | 所以,如果你不是百分百 进入它的人 |
| 1265 | who is a hundred percent into it will outperform you. | 谁在其中百分百 将超过你。 |
| 1266 | And they won't just outperform you by a little bit. | 而且他们不会仅仅比你多一点。 |
| 1267 | They'll outperform you by a lot because now we're operating | 它们会比你多得多 因为现在我们行动了 |
| 1268 | the domain of ideas compound interest really applies and | 思想领域 复合兴趣 真正适用和 |
| 1269 | leverage really applies. | 杠杆真的适用。 |
| 1270 | So if you're operating with a thousand times leverage and | 所以,如果你运行 用一千倍的杠杆和 |
| 1271 | somebody is right 80% of the time and somebody is else | 80%的时间都是对的 有人是别人 |
| 1272 | right 90% of the time the person who's right 90% of the | 时间的90% 正确者时间的90% |
| 1273 | time will literally get paid hundreds of times more by the | 时间会得到数百倍的薪水 |
| 1274 | market because of the leverage and because of the compounding | 由于杠杆和复合 |
| 1275 | factors and being correct. | 因素和正确性。 |
| 1276 | So you really want to make sure you're good at it. | 所以,你真的想要确保 你擅长它。 |
| 1277 | So your genuine curiosity is very important. | 所以你真正的好奇心是非常重要的 |
| 1278 | So very often it's not something you sit down and you | 所以,经常这不是什么 你坐下和你 |
| 1279 | reason about it's more found by observation. | 其原因更多是通过观察发现的. |
| 1280 | You almost have to look back on your own life and see what | 你几乎必须回首你自己的生活,看看什么 |
| 1281 | you're actually good at. | 你其实很擅长 |
| 1282 | For example, I wanted to be a scientist and that is where a | 例如,我想成为一名科学家,那就是 |
| 1283 | lot of my moral hierarchy comes from. | 我道德等级的很多来源 |
| 1284 | I view scientists at the top of the production chain for | 我将科学家置于生产链的顶端 |
| 1285 | humanity and the group of scientists who have made real | 人类和科学家的 |
| 1286 | breakthroughs and contributions have probably added more to | 突破和贡献可能增加了 |
| 1287 | society. | 社会。 |
| 1288 | I think than any single other class of human beings not take | 我想比其他任何一类人类都不要 |
| 1289 | away anything from art or politics or engineering or | 远离艺术、政治、工程或 |
| 1290 | business, but without the science, you know, we'd still | 但是如果没有科学,你知道,我们仍然 |
| 1291 | be scrabbling in the dirt fighting with sticks and trying | 在泥土中摇摇欲坠 用棍棒搏斗和尝试 |
| 1292 | to start fires. | 引发火灾。 |
| 1293 | My whole value system was built around scientists and I | 我的整个价值系统 围绕科学家和我 |
| 1294 | wanted to be a great scientist, but when I actually look back | 想要成为一位伟大的科学家, 但当我真的回头看 |
| 1295 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我最擅长的是什么 | |
| 1296 | my time doing it was more around making money tinkering | 我的时间做它 更多围绕赚钱 |
| 1297 | with technology and selling people on things explaining | 技术 和推销人的东西解释 |
| 1298 | things talking to people. | 和别人说话的事 |
| 1299 | So I have some sales skills, which is a form of specific | 所以,我有一些销售技能, 这是一种形式的具体 |
| 1300 | knowledge that I have. | 我拥有的知识。 |
| 1301 | I have some analytical skills around how to make money and | 我有一些分析技巧 如何赚钱和 |
| 1302 | having this ability to absorb data obsess about it and break | 拥有这种吸收数据的能力 |
| 1303 | it down and that is a specific skill that I have. | 它下来,这是一个特定的技能,我有。 |
| 1304 | I also just love tinkering with technology and all of this | 我也喜欢用科技和这一切 |
| 1305 | stuff feels like play to me, but it looks like work to | 感觉就像在玩耍,但看起来像工作 |
| 1306 | others. | 别人。 |
| 1307 | So there are other people to whom these things things | 所以还有其他人 这些东西的人 |
| 1308 | would be hard. | 这将是艰难的。 |
| 1309 | They say like, well, how do I get good at being pithy and selling ideas? | 他们说,嗯,我如何得到好 做pitty和销售想法? |
| 1310 | Well, if you're not already good at it or you're not really into it, maybe it's not | 好吧,如果你已经不擅长它 或者你不是真的喜欢它,也许它不是 |
| 1311 | your thing. | 你的东西。 |
| 1312 | Focus on the thing that you are really into. | 专注于你真正喜欢的东西。 |
| 1313 | This is ironic, but the first | 这是讽刺,但第一个 |
| 1314 | person to actually point out my real specific knowledge was my mother. | 其实我真正的知识是我妈妈 |
| 1315 | And she did it as | 她这样做是 |
| 1316 | an aside talking from the kitchen. | 在厨房边说话 |
| 1317 | And she said it when I was like 15 or 16 years old. | 我15或16岁时她就这么说了 |
| 1318 | I was telling a friend of mine that I wanted to be an astrophysicist. | 我告诉一个朋友 我想成为一个天体物理学家。 |
| 1319 | And she said, no, | 她说,不, |
| 1320 | you're going to go into business. | 你会去做生意。 |
| 1321 | And I was like, what? | 我当时想,什么? |
| 1322 | My mom's telling me I'm going | 我妈说我要走了 |
| 1323 | to be in business. | 来做生意。 |
| 1324 | I'm going to be an astrophysicist. | 我要成为天体物理学家 |
| 1325 | Mom doesn't know what she's talking about. | 妈妈不知道她在说什么 |
| 1326 | But mom knew exactly what she was talking about. | 但是妈妈知道她在说什么 |
| 1327 | She had already observed that every | 她已经注意到, |
| 1328 | time we walked down the street, I would critique the local pizza parlor on why they were selling | 当我们走在街上, 我会批评当地披萨店 他们为什么卖 |
| 1329 | their slices a certain way with certain toppings and why their process of ordering was this | 他们的切片 一定的方式 与某些顶端 和为什么他们订购的过程 是这个 |
| 1330 | way when it should have been that way. | 应该是那样的 |
| 1331 | So she knew that I was just had more of a business | 所以她知道我只是有点生意 |
| 1332 | curious mind. | 好奇的头脑。 |
| 1333 | But then my obsession with science combined to create technology and technology | 但后来我对科学的痴迷 结合了科技创造 |
| 1334 | business is where I found myself. | 生意就是我发现自己的地方 |
| 1335 | So very often, your specific knowledge is observed | 所以经常被观察你的具体知识 |
| 1336 | and often observed by other people who know you well and revealed in situations rather | 并经常被其他人观察到 他们非常了解你 并在情况中透露 |
| 1337 | than something that you come up with. | 而不是你想出的东西。 |
| 1338 | To the extent that specific knowledge is taught, | 在传授具体知识方面, |
| 1339 | it's on the job. | 这是在工作。 |
| 1340 | It's through apprenticeships. | 这是通过学徒。 |
| 1341 | And that's why the best businesses, the best | 这就是为什么最好的企业,最好的 |
| 1342 | careers are the apprenticeship careers, because those are things that society still has not | 职业是学徒生涯,因为这些是社会还没有的东西 |
| 1343 | figured out how to train and automate yet. | 已经想好了如何训练 如何自动化 |
| 1344 | The classic line here is that Warren Buffett | 这里经典的台词是沃伦·巴菲特 |
| 1345 | went to Benjamin Graham when he got out of school. | 本杰明·格雷厄姆放学后去了学校. |
| 1346 | And Benjamin Graham was the author | 本杰明・格雷厄姆是作者 |
| 1347 | of The Intelligent Investor and sort of modernized or created value investing as a discipline. | 和某种现代化或创造价值投资作为一种学科。 |
| 1348 | And Warren Buffett went to Benjamin Graham and offered to work for him for free. | 而沃伦·巴菲特则去找本杰明·格雷厄姆,主动提出免费为他工作. |
| 1349 | And | 还有 |
| 1350 | Graham said, actually, you're overpriced. | Graham说 其实你太贵了 |
| 1351 | Free is overpriced. | 免费价格过高。 |
| 1352 | And Graham was absolutely | 格雷厄姆绝对是 |
| 1353 | right that when it comes to a very valuable apprenticeship, like the type that Graham | 没错,当它涉及到 一个非常宝贵的学徒, 像那种类型的格雷厄姆 |
| 1354 | was going to give Buffett, Buffett should have been paying him a lot of money. | 本来打算给巴菲特, 巴菲特应该付他很多钱。 |
| 1355 | And that | 还有 |
| 1356 | right there tells you that those are skills worth knowing. | 告诉你这些是值得学习的技能 |
| 1357 | Specific knowledge also tends | 具体知识也趋向于 |
| 1358 | to be technical and creative. | 具有技术和创造性。 |
| 1359 | So on the bleeding edge of technology, on the bleeding edge of | 因此,在技术的流血边缘, 在流血边缘, |
| 1360 | art, on the bleeding edge of communication. | 艺术,在流血的 通讯边缘。 |
| 1361 | Even today, for example, there are probably | 例如,即使在今天,也可能有 |
| 1362 | meme lords out there on the internet who can create incredible memes that will spread the | 互联网上那些能创造出 令人难以置信的记忆的领主们 |
| 1363 | idea to millions of people or very persuasive. | 给数百万人的想法 或者很有说服力 |
| 1364 | Like, for example, Scott Adams is a good example | 比如说,斯科特·亚当斯就是个好例子 |
| 1365 | of this. | 这个 |
| 1366 | He's essentially becoming one of the most credible people in the world by making | 他基本上正在成为世界上最可信的人之一 通过制造 |
| 1367 | accurate predictions through persuasive arguments and videos. | 通过有说服力的论证和视频进行准确的预测. |
| 1368 | And that is specific knowledge | 这就是具体的知识 |
| 1369 | that he has built up over the years because he got obsessed with hypnosis when he was | 多年来他积聚起来 因为他迷恋催眠 |
| 1370 | young. | 年轻。 |
| 1371 | He learned how to communicate through cartooning. | 他学会了如何通过漫画进行交流. |
| 1372 | He embraced Periscope early, so | 他很早就拥抱了潜望镜 所以 |
| 1373 | he's been practicing lots of conversation. | 他一直在练习很多对话。 |
| 1374 | He's read all the books on the topic. | 他读过所有关于这个话题的书籍. |
| 1375 | He's | 琌 |
| 1376 | employed it in his everyday life. | 在日常生活中使用它。 |
| 1377 | If you look at his girlfriend, she's like this beautiful | 如果你看他的女朋友,她就像这么漂亮 |
| 1378 | 年轻的Instagram模型。 | |
| 1379 | That is an example of someone who has built up a specific knowledge | 这是建立特定知识的人的例子 |
| 1380 | over the course of his career. | 在他的职业生涯中 |
| 1381 | It's highly creative. | 很有创意 |
| 1382 | It has elements of being technical | 它有技术因素 |
| 1383 | in it. | 进去吧 |
| 1384 | And it's something that is never going to be automated. | 这是永远不会自动化的东西。 |
| 1385 | No one's going to take that | 没有人会接受的 |
| 1386 | away from him because he's also accountable under one brand as Scott Adams. | 离他远点 因为他还得为斯科特·亚当斯负责 |
| 1387 | And he's | 而他却 |
| 1388 | operating with a leverage of media with Periscope and drawing billboard cartoons and writing | 利用媒体的杠杆作用,利用潜望镜,绘制广告牌漫画和写作 |
| 1389 | books. | 书 |
| 1390 | He has massive leverage on top of that brand, and he can build wealth out of it if | 他拥有巨大的杠杆 在那个品牌之上, 他可以建立财富 |
| 1391 | he wanted to build additional wealth beyond what he already has. | 他想要创造更多的财富 超越他已经拥有的。 |
| 1392 | Should we be calling it unique knowledge or does specific knowledge somehow make more | 如果我们称之为独有的知识 或者说具体的知识会增加 |
| 1393 | sense for it? | 有感觉吗? |
| 1394 | You know, I came up with this framework when I was really young and we're talking decades | 你知道,我想到这个框架 当我真的年轻, 我们正在谈论几十年 |
| 1395 | and decades. | 和几十年。 |
| 1396 | It's now probably over 30 years old. | 现在可能已经超过30年了 |
| 1397 | And so at the time, just specific knowledge | 所以,在当时,只是特定的知识 |
| 1398 | stuck with me. | 坚持住我。 |
| 1399 | So that is how I think about it. | 这就是我的想法。 |
| 1400 | The reason I didn't try and change it is | 我之所以没改变是因为 |
| 1401 | because every other term that I found for it was overloaded in a different way. | 因为我找到的所有其他术语 都以不同的方式超载了 |
| 1402 | At least | 起码 |
| 1403 | specific knowledge isn't that used. | 特定的知识是没有用的。 |
| 1404 | I can rebrand it. | 我可以重新标注它。 |
| 1405 | The probably unique knowledge is, yeah, maybe it's unique. | 可能独特的知识是,是的,也许它是独特的。 |
| 1406 | But if I learn it from somebody | 但如果我从别人那里学到 |
| 1407 | else, it's no longer unique. | 另外,它不再独一无二。 |
| 1408 | Then we both know it. | 那我们都知道了 |
| 1409 | So it's not so much that it is unique. | 所以说,它不是那么独特。 |
| 1410 | It's that it is highly specific to the situation. | 因为它是高度针对具体情况的. |
| 1411 | It's specific to the individual. | 具体为个体. |
| 1412 | It's specific | 特别的 |
| 1413 | to the problem. | 对问题。 |
| 1414 | And it can only be built as part of a larger | 它只能作为更大的建筑的一部分 |
| 1415 | obsession, interest and time spent in that domain. | 痴迷、兴趣和时间都花在这个领域。 |
| 1416 | It can't just be read straight out of a single book, nor can it be taught in a single course, | 不能只从一书中直接读出来,也不能在一课中教授, |
| 1417 | nor can it be programmed into a single algorithm. | 也不能编程为单一算法. |
| 1418 | Speaking of Scott Adams, he's got a blog post on how to build your career by getting in, | 说到斯科特・亚当斯,他有一个博客文章 如何构建你的职业生涯 通过进入, |
| 1419 | say, the top 25 percentile at three or more things. | 说,前25% 在三个或更多的事情。 |
| 1420 | And by doing that, you become the | 通过这样做,你成为 |
| 1421 | only person in the world who can do those three things in the 25th percentile. | 世界上只有一个人能做这三件事 在25%。 |
| 1422 | So instead of trying to be the best at one thing, you just try to be very, very good at | 所以,你没有试图成为最好的一件事, 你只是尝试非常,非常擅长 |
| 1423 | three or more things. | 3个或更多 |
| 1424 | Is that a way of building specific knowledge? | 这是建立具体知识的方法吗? |
| 1425 | I actually think the best way is just to follow your own obsession. | 我其实认为最好的办法 就是跟随你自己的痴迷 |
| 1426 | And somewhere in the back | 在后面的某个地方 |
| 1427 | of your mind, you can realize that, hey, actually, this obsession, like I'll keep an eye out | 在你的脑海里,你可以意识到, 嘿,实际上,这种痴迷, 就像我会留意 |
| 1428 | for the commercial aspects of it. | 因为它的商业方面。 |
| 1429 | But I think if you go around trying to build it a little | 但我想如果你绕圈子 试图建设它一点点 |
| 1430 | too deliberately, if you become too goal oriented on the money, then you won't pick the right | 这么刻意的,如果你对钱太有进取心,那你就不会选对了 |
| 1431 | thing. | 东西。 |
| 1432 | You won't actually pick the thing that you love to do, so you won't go deep enough | 你不会真正选择你喜欢做的事情, 所以你不会去足够深 |
| 1433 | into it. | 进入它。 |
| 1434 | Scott Adams' observation is a good one. | 斯科特·亚当斯的观察是很好的. |
| 1435 | It's predicated on statistics. | 这是基于统计的。 |
| 1436 | Let's say there's 10,000 areas that are valuable to the | 假设有一万个地区对 |
| 1437 | world. | 这个世界 |
| 1438 | Number one in those 10,000 slots is taken. | 那一万个插槽里的第一个被拿走了 |
| 1439 | Someone else is likely to be the number one each of those 10,000, unless you happen to be | 其他人很可能是这万块中的头号 除非你碰巧是 |
| 1440 | one of the 10,000 most obsessed people in the world at a given thing. | 世界上最迷恋的人之一 在一个特定的东西。 |
| 1441 | But when you start going the combinatorics of combining, well, number 3728 with | 但当你开始 组合,嗯,3728号与 |
| 1442 | top-notch sales skills and really good writing skills and someone who understands accounting | 优秀的销售技巧和优秀的写作技巧 以及懂会计的人 |
| 1443 | and finance really well, when the need for that intersection arrives, you have expanded | 和资金真的很好, 当需要那个交叉点到来时, 你扩大了 |
| 1444 | now from 10,000 through combinatorics to millions or tens of millions. | 从一万到数以百万或数以千万计 |
| 1445 | So it just becomes much less competitive. | 所以,它只是变得少得多的竞争。 |
| 1446 | Also, there's diminishing returns. | 还有,回报越来越少了 |
| 1447 | So it's much easier to be top 75 percentile at three or four things than it is to be | 所以在三、四样事情上 成为最高的75%就容易多了 |
| 1448 | literally the number one at something. | 从字面上说,第一在某事。 |
| 1449 | I think it's a very pragmatic approach, but I think it's important that one not start | 我认为这是一个非常务实的方法, 但我认为重要的是,一个不开始 |
| 1450 | assembling things too deliberately because you do want to pick things where you are a | 收集的东西太刻意,因为你确实想 选择的东西你是一个 |
| 1451 | natural. | 当然 |
| 1452 | Everyone is a natural at something. | 每个人都是天生的 |
| 1453 | We're all familiar with that phrase, a natural. | 我们都很熟悉这句话,很自然 |
| 1454 | Oh, this person's a natural at meeting men or women. | 哦,这个人是天生遇到男人或女人。 |
| 1455 | This person's a natural socialite. | 这个人是天然的社会主义者. |
| 1456 | This person's a natural programmer. | 这个人是一个自然程序员。 |
| 1457 | This person is a natural reader. | 这个人是天生的读者. |
| 1458 | So whatever you are a natural at, you want to double down on that. | 所以,无论你是一个自然的, 你想双倍下降。 |
| 1459 | And then there are probably multiple things you are natural at, because personalities | 之后可能有很多事情 你自然,因为个性 |
| 1460 | and humans are very complex. | 人类是非常复杂的 |
| 1461 | So we want to be able to take the things that you are natural at and combine them so | 所以,我们想 能够采取的东西 你是自然的 并结合它们这样 |
| 1462 | that you automatically just through sheer interest and enjoyment end up top 25 or top | 你自动通过 纯粹的兴趣和享受 最终最高25或最高 |
| 1463 | 10 or top 5 percent at a number of things. | 10或前5%在一些事情。 |
| 1464 | Talking about combining skills, you said that you should learn to sell, learn to | 说到结合技能,你说你应该学会出售,学习 |
| 1465 | build. | 建设。 |
| 1466 | If you can do both, you will be unstoppable. | 如果你能做到两者兼而有之 你会是无法阻挡的 |
| 1467 | You know, this is a very broad category now, but it's two broad categories. | 你知道,这是一个非常广泛的类别 现在,但它是两大类别。 |
| 1468 | One is building the product, which is hard and it's multivariate that can include | 其一是构建产品,它很硬,而且可以包含多种变异. |
| 1469 | design, that can include development, that can include manufacturing, logistics, | 设计,可以包括开发,可以包括制造,物流, |
| 1470 | procurement. | 采购。 |
| 1471 | It could even be designing and operating a service. | 它甚至可以设计和运营一项服务。 |
| 1472 | It has many, many definitions, but in every industry, there is a definition of the | 它有许多,许多定义,但在每个行业,都有定义 |
| 1473 | builder in our tech industry. | 我们科技行业的建筑师 |
| 1474 | That's the CTO, it's the programmer, it's the software engineer, hardware engineer. | 那是CTO,是程序员,是软件工程师,硬件工程师. |
| 1475 | But, you know, even in like a laundry business, it could be the person who's | 但是,你知道,即使在一个洗衣店, 它可能是人谁是 |
| 1476 | building the laundry service, who is making the trains run on time, who's making | 是谁让火车准时运行 是谁在制造 |
| 1477 | sure all the clothes end up in the right place, the right time and so on. | 确定所有的衣服最终都放在合适的地方,合适的时间等等. |
| 1478 | Then the other side of it is the sales side. | 另一边是销售部 |
| 1479 | Again, selling has a very broad definition. | 同样,销售的定义也非常宽泛。 |
| 1480 | Selling doesn't necessarily just mean selling individual customers, but it could | 卖掉不一定意味着卖掉个别的客户 但它可以 |
| 1481 | mean marketing, it could mean communicating, it could mean recruiting, it | 意思是营销,可以指 沟通,可以指 招募,它 |
| 1482 | could mean raising money, it could mean inspiring people, it could mean doing PR. | 可能意味着筹集资金, 可能意味着激励人们, 它可能意味着做公关。 |
| 1483 | So it's a broad umbrella category. | 故为广伞类. |
| 1484 | So generally the Silicon Valley startup model tends to work best. | 因此一般硅谷启动模型往往效果最好. |
| 1485 | It's not the only way, but it is probably the most common way when you have two | 这不是唯一的办法,但这可能是最常见的办法 当你有两个 |
| 1486 | founders, one of whom is a world class at sales and one of whom is world class at | 创始人,其中一位是世界级销售商,一位是世界级销售商。 |
| 1487 | building. | 大楼。 |
| 1488 | An example is, of course, Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak with Apple, Gates | 当然,一个例子是史蒂夫・乔布斯和史蒂夫・沃兹尼亚克与苹果,盖茨 |
| 1489 | and Allen probably had similar responsibility early on with Microsoft. | 艾伦很可能在早期对微软也有类似的责任. |
| 1490 | Larry and Sergey, you know, probably broke down along those lines, although it's a | 拉里和谢尔盖,你知道,可能 打破了这些思路,虽然这是一个 |
| 1491 | little different there because that was a very technical product delivered to end | 这没什么不同,因为这是一个非常技术的产品 交付结束 |
| 1492 | users through a simple interface. | 用户通过一个简单的界面。 |
| 1493 | But generally you will see this pattern repeated over and over. | 但一般你会看到这种模式反复出现。 |
| 1494 | There's a builder and there's a seller. | 有造者有卖者. |
| 1495 | There's a CEO and CTO combo and the venture and technology investors are almost | 有个CEO和CTO组合 风险投资和技术投资人几乎 |
| 1496 | trained to look for this combo whenever possible. | 训练了尽可能寻找这个组合。 |
| 1497 | It's the magic combination. | 这是魔法组合。 |
| 1498 | The ultimate is when one individual can do both. | 最终是当一个人可以做到两者兼有。 |
| 1499 | That's when you get true superpowers. | 这时你得到了真正的超能力。 |
| 1500 | That's when you get people who can create entire industries. | 这时你得到的人 谁可以创造整个行业。 |
| 1501 | The living example is Elon Musk. | 活生生的例子是伊隆·穆斯克. |
| 1502 | He may not necessarily be building the rockets himself, but he understands enough | 他不一定是自己造火箭 但他很明白 |
| 1503 | that he actually makes technical contributions. | 他实际上做出了技术贡献。 |
| 1504 | He understands the technology well enough that no one's going to snow him on it. | 他非常了解技术 没人会给他下雪 |
| 1505 | And he's not running around making claims that he doesn't think he can eventually | 而且他不会到处乱跑 声称他最终不会 |
| 1506 | deliver. | 交付。 |
| 1507 | He may be optimistic in the timelines, but he thinks it's within | 他也许对时间很乐观 但他认为这是在 |
| 1508 | reasonableness of delivery. | 交货的合理性。 |
| 1509 | Even Steve Jobs developed enough product skills and was involved enough in the | 甚至史蒂夫·乔布斯也掌握了足够的产品技能,并参与到 |
| 1510 | product that he also operated in both of these domains. | 他同时在这两个领域操作的产品。 |
| 1511 | Larry Ellison started as a programmer and I think wrote the first version of | Larry Ellison是作为一个程序员开始的 我想他写了第一个版本 |
| 1512 | Oracle or was actually heavily involved in it. | 甲骨文或实际上 大量参与其中。 |
| 1513 | Mark Andreessen was also in this domain. | 马克·安德烈森也在这个领域. |
| 1514 | He may not have had enough confidence in his sales skills, but he was the | 他可能没有足够的信心 他的销售技能, 但他是 |
| 1515 | 程序员写了Netscape Navigator, 其中一大块。 | |
| 1516 | So I think the real giants in any field are the people who can both build and | 所以我认为任何领域真正的巨头 都能够建造和建造 |
| 1517 | sell. | 卖掉。 |
| 1518 | And usually the building is the thing that like a salesperson can't pick | 通常,大楼是 像销售员不能选择的东西 |
| 1519 | up building later in life. | 晚点再建 |
| 1520 | It requires too much focused time, but a builder can pick up selling a little bit | 这需要太多的专注时间, 但是一个建筑商可以拿起 销售一点点 |
| 1521 | later, especially if they were already innately wired to be a good communicator. | 后来,特别是如果它们已经天生被电线连接成一个良好的交流器. |
| 1522 | Bill Gates famously paraphrased this as, I would rather teach an engineer | 比尔·盖茨的名言是 我宁愿教一个工程师 |
| 1523 | marketing than a marketer engineering. | 营销比营销工程。 |
| 1524 | I think if you start out with a building mentality and you have building skills | 我认为,如果你开始 建筑心态和你有建筑技能 |
| 1525 | and it's still early enough in your life or you have enough focused time that you | 生命还很早 或者你有足够的时间集中精神 |
| 1526 | think you can learn selling and you have some natural characteristics for your | 以为可以学卖 并且你有一些自然特征 |
| 1527 | good salesperson, then you can double down on those. | 不错的推销员,然后你就可以翻倍了。 |
| 1528 | Now your sales skills could be in a different than traditional domain. | 现在,你的销售技能可能 在一个不同的传统领域。 |
| 1529 | So for example, let's say you're a really good engineer and then people are saying, | 比如说你是一个很好的工程师 然后人们就说 |
| 1530 | well, now you need to be good at sales. | 好吧,现在你需要 擅长销售。 |
| 1531 | Well, you may not be good at hand to hand sales, but you may be a really good | 好吧,你可能不擅长手 手的销售, 但你可能是一个真正的好 |
| 1532 | writer and writing is a skill that can be learned much more easily than say in | 写作和写作是一种技能,比说得容易得多 |
| 1533 | person selling. | 人卖。 |
| 1534 | And so you may just cultivate writing skills until you become a good online | 所以你可以培养写作技巧 直到你成为好网络 |
| 1535 | communicator and then use that for your sales. | 然后用它做你的销售 |
| 1536 | On the other hand, it could just be that you're a good builder and you're bad at | 另一方面,你可能只是 是一个好建筑师,你是坏的 |
| 1537 | writing and you don't like communicate to mass audiences, but you're good one on | 写作,你不喜欢跟观众交流, 但你是一个好人 |
| 1538 | one. | 一个 |
| 1539 | So then you might use your sales skills for recruiting or for fundraising, which | 所以,你可能利用你的销售技能 招聘或筹款, |
| 1540 | are more one-on-one kinds of endeavors. | 更是一对一的努力 |
| 1541 | This is pointing out that if you're at the intersection of these two, don't | 这是指出,如果你 在这两个的交叉点,不要 |
| 1542 | despair because you're not going to be the best technologist and you're not going | 绝望是因为你不会成为最好的科技家 也不会去 |
| 1543 | to be the best salesperson. | 成为最好的推销员 |
| 1544 | But in a weird way, that combination back, the Scott Adams skill stack, that | 但奇怪的是 那个组合 斯科特·亚当斯技能堆 |
| 1545 | combination of two is unstoppable. | 二的组合是不可阻挡的。 |
| 1546 | Long-term people who understand the underlying product and how to build it and | 长期了解基础产品以及如何建立基础产品的人 |
| 1547 | can sell it. | 可以卖掉 |
| 1548 | These are catnip to investors. | 这些是投资者的猫咪 |
| 1549 | These people can break down walls if they have enough energy and they can get | 这些人只要有足够的能量就能破墙 |
| 1550 | almost anything done. | 几乎什么都做过了。 |
| 1551 | If you could only pick one to be good at, which one would you pick? | 如果你能挑一个好,你会选哪一个? |
| 1552 | When you're trying to stand out from the noise, building is actually better | 当你试图远离噪音时, 建筑其实更好 |
| 1553 | because there's so many hustlers and salespeople who have nothing to back them | 因为有这么多的皮条客和推销员 他们没有什么可支持的 |
| 1554 | up. | 起来 |
| 1555 | When you're starting out, when you're trying to be recognized, building is | 当你开始的时候 当你试图被认出来的时候 建筑就是 |
| 1556 | better, but much later down the line, building gets exhausting because it is a | 更好的,但很多后 下行,建筑物变得累 因为这是一个 |
| 1557 | focused job and it's hard to stay current because there's always new people, new | 有重点的工作 很难保持时态 因为总是有新人,新人 |
| 1558 | products coming up who have newer tools and frankly more time because it's very | 产品出现 谁有更新的工具 坦率地说,更多的时间 因为非常 |
| 1559 | intense, it's a very focused task. | 紧张,这是一个非常集中的任务。 |
| 1560 | So sales skills actually scale better over time. | 因此,销售技能实际上随着时间推移而提高。 |
| 1561 | Like for example, if you have a reputation for building a great product, that's | 比如说,如果你有造一个伟大的产品的声誉,那就是 |
| 1562 | good, but when you ship your new product, I'm going to evaluate it based on the | 好,但当你运送你的新产品, 我会根据 |
| 1563 | product. | 产品。 |
| 1564 | But if you have a reputation for being a good person to do business with and | 但是,如果你有一个名声 作为一个好人与和 |
| 1565 | you're persuasive and communicative, then that reputation almost becomes | 你很有说服力和沟通力, 那么,名誉几乎变成了 |
| 1566 | self-fulfilling. | 自我实现。 |
| 1567 | So I think if you only had to pick one, you can start with building and then | 所以我想如果你只选一个, 你可以从建筑开始,然后 |
| 1568 | transition to selling. | 向销售过渡。 |
| 1569 | This is a cop-out answer, but I think that is actually the right answer. | 这是一个不听话的答案, 但我认为这其实是正确的答案。 |
| 1570 | Before we go and talk about accountability and leverage and judgment, | 在我们讨论责任 杠杆和判断之前 |
| 1571 | you've got a few tweets further down the line that I would put in the category of | 你还有几条微博 更深入地说,我会把 分类 |
| 1572 | continuous learning. | 继续学习。 |
| 1573 | They're essentially, there is no skill called business, avoid business magazines | 基本上,没有技能叫生意,避开生意杂志 |
| 1574 | and business class, study microeconomics, game theory, psychology, persuasion, | 和商科,研究微观经济学,游戏理论,心理学,说服, |
| 1575 | ethics, mathematics, and computers. | 伦理、数学和计算机。 |
| 1576 | There's one other comment that you made in a periscope that was you should be able | 还有一个你用潜望镜提出的意见 你应该可以 |
| 1577 | to pick up any book in the library and read it. | 取出图书馆里的任何书籍,然后阅读 |
| 1578 | And the last tweet in this category was reading is faster than listening, doing | 而这一类的最后一个微博读得比听得快 做 |
| 1579 | is faster than watching. | 它比观看快。 |
| 1580 | Yeah, the most important tweet on this I don't even have in here, unfortunately, | 是啊,最重要的微博 我甚至没有在这里, 不幸的是, |
| 1581 | which is the foundation of learning is reading. | 这是学习的基础 是阅读。 |
| 1582 | I don't know a smart person who doesn't read and read all the time. | 不识智者常不读诵. |
| 1583 | And the problem is, what do I read? | 问题是,我读什么? |
| 1584 | How do I read? | 我怎么看书? |
| 1585 | Because for most people, it's a struggle, it's a chore. | 因为对大多数人来说,这是一场斗争,是一场争斗. |
| 1586 | So the most important thing is just to learn how to educate yourself and the way | 所以最重要的是要学会如何教育自己和方式 |
| 1587 | to develop a love for reading. | 发展对阅读的热爱。 |
| 1588 | So the tweet that is left out, the one that I was hinting at is read what you | 所以,被忽略的微博, 我暗示的那个是读你 |
| 1589 | love until you love to read. | 爱直到你喜欢阅读。 |
| 1590 | It's that simple. | 就这么简单 |
| 1591 | Everybody I know who reads a lot loves to read and they love to read because they | 我认识的每个人都喜欢看书 他们喜欢看书,因为他们 |
| 1592 | read books that they loved. | 看他们喜欢的书 |
| 1593 | It's a little bit of a catch 22, but you want to start off just reading wherever | 有点像22号,但你想从读到哪里开始 |
| 1594 | you are and then keep building up from there until reading becomes a habit. | 然后继续积蓄 直到阅读成为习惯 |
| 1595 | And then eventually you will just get bored of the simple stuff. | 最后你会厌倦那些简单的东西。 |
| 1596 | So you may start off reading fiction, then you might graduate to science fiction. | 这样你就可以开始读小说, 然后你可以毕业 科幻。 |
| 1597 | Then you may graduate to nonfiction. | 然后你可以毕业为非虚构。 |
| 1598 | Then you may graduate to science or philosophy or mathematics or whatever it | 然后,你可能毕业 科学或哲学或数学或任何它 |
| 1599 | is, but take your natural path and just read the things that interest you until | 是,但走你的自然道路, 只是读的东西 你感兴趣的,直到 |
| 1600 | you understand them and then you'll naturally move to the next thing and the | 你理解他们,然后你自然地 移动到接下来的事情和 |
| 1601 | next thing and the next thing. | 接下来的事 接下来的事 |
| 1602 | Now there is an exception to this, which is where I was hinting with what things | 现在有一个例外 那就是我暗示的东西 |
| 1603 | you actually do want to learn, which is at some point there's too much out there | 其实你确实想学, 在某些时候, 外面太多 |
| 1604 | to read and even reading is full of junk. | 阅读甚至阅读都是垃圾 |
| 1605 | There are actually things you can read, especially early on that will program | 有一些东西你可以读, 特别是早期的会编程 |
| 1606 | your brain a certain way and then later things that you read, you will decide | 你的大脑有某种方式,然后你阅读的东西,你会决定 |
| 1607 | whether those things are true or false based on the earlier things. | 那些东西是真实的还是假的 根据早期的东西。 |
| 1608 | So it is important that you read foundational things and foundational things | 所以,重要的是,你读 基础的东西和基础的东西 |
| 1609 | I would say are the original books in a given field that are very | 我想说,在一个特定领域的原始书籍 是非常 |
| 1610 | scientific in their nature. | 科学性质。 |
| 1611 | So for example, instead of reading a business book, pick up Adam Smith's | 比如说,不是读一本商业书,而是拿起亚当·斯密的 |
| 1612 | The Wealth of Nations. | 国家财富. |
| 1613 | Instead of reading a book on biology or evolution that's written today, I would | 而不是读一本今天写的关于生物学或进化论的书 |
| 1614 | pick up Darwin's Origin of the Species. | 采集达尔文的物种起源. |
| 1615 | Instead of reading a book on biotech right now that may be very advanced, I | 而不是读一本关于生物技术的书 现在可能非常先进,我 |
| 1616 | would just pick up The Eighth Day of Creation by Watson and Crick. | 华生和克里克的第八创作日 |
| 1617 | Instead of reading advanced books on what cosmology and what Neil deGrasse | 而不是阅读关于宇宙学和尼尔·德格拉斯的高级书籍 |
| 1618 | Tyson and Stephen Hawking have been saying, you can pick up Richard Feynman's | 泰森和史蒂芬・霍金一直说, 你可以拿理查德・费曼的 |
| 1619 | Six Easy Pieces and start with basic physics. | 六易片 以基础物理为起点. |
| 1620 | If you understand the basics, especially in mathematics and physics and sciences, | 如果你了解基本知识 特别是数学和物理科学 |
| 1621 | then you will not be afraid of any book. | 那么你不会害怕任何一本书。 |
| 1622 | All of us have that memory of when we're sitting in class and we're learning | 我们都记得我们坐在教室里 学习 |
| 1623 | mathematics and it was all logical and all made sense until at one point the | 数学和它都是逻辑的 并且都有意义 直到某一点 |
| 1624 | class moved too fast and we fell behind. | 班级走得太快,我们落后了 |
| 1625 | And then after that, we were left memorizing equations, memorizing concepts | 之后,我们被留下 记忆方程式,记忆概念 |
| 1626 | without being able to derive them from first principles. | 而不能够从第一原则中得出这些原则。 |
| 1627 | And at that moment we're lost because unless you're a professional | 那时我们迷路了 除非你是专业的 |
| 1628 | mathematician, you are not going to remember those things. | 数学家 你不会记得那些事的 |
| 1629 | All you're going to remember are the techniques, the foundations. | 你要记住的只是技巧,基础. |
| 1630 | So you have to make sure that you're building on a steel frame of | 所以,你必须确定 你建在钢框架 |
| 1631 | understanding because you're putting together a foundation for a skyscraper | 理解 因为你正在为摩天大楼奠定基础 |
| 1632 | and you're not just memorizing things because if you're just memorizing | 你不只是在回忆一些事情 因为如果你只是回忆 |
| 1633 | things, you're lost. | 东西,你迷路了。 |
| 1634 | So the foundations are ultra important. | 所以基础是极其重要的。 |
| 1635 | And the ultimate, the ultimate is when you walk into a library and you look | 最终,你走进图书馆,看着 |
| 1636 | at it up and down and you don't fear any book, you know that you can take any | 在它上下,你不害怕任何书, 你知道你可以拿任何 |
| 1637 | book off the shelf, you can read it, you can understand it, you can absorb what | 书本从书架上脱落,你可以阅读,可以理解,可以吸收什么 |
| 1638 | is true, you can reject what is false and you have a basis for even working | 是真的,你可以拒绝 虚假的,你有一个基础 甚至工作 |
| 1639 | that out that is logical and scientific and not purely just based on opinions. | 这很符合逻辑和科学 不只是基于观点 |
| 1640 | The beauty of the internet is the entire library of Alexandria times 10 is at | 互联网的美丽是 整个亚历山大图书馆 10倍 |
| 1641 | your fingertips at all times. | 你的指尖随时随地 |
| 1642 | It's not the means of education or the means of learning are scarce. | 这不是教育手段,也不是学习手段稀缺. |
| 1643 | The means of learning are abundant. | 修习具足. |
| 1644 | It's the desire to learn that's scarce. | 乃欲学之所缺. |
| 1645 | So you really have to cultivate that desire and it's not even | 所以,你真的必须培育 欲望,它甚至不 |
| 1646 | cultivated, you have to not lose it. | 栽培,你必须不要失去它。 |
| 1647 | Children have a natural curiosity. | 孩子们天生好奇 |
| 1648 | If you go to a young child whose first learning language, they're pretty much | 如果你去找第一个学习语言的小孩, 他们几乎是 |
| 1649 | always asking, what's this, what's that? | 总是问,这是什么,是什么? |
| 1650 | Why is this? | 为什么? |
| 1651 | Who's that? | 那是谁? |
| 1652 | They're always asking questions. | 他们总是问问题。 |
| 1653 | But one of the problems is that schools and our educational system and even our | 但问题之一是学校和我们的教育制度,甚至我们 |
| 1654 | way of raising children replaces curiosity with compliance. | 抚养儿童的方式取代了好奇心和遵守。 |
| 1655 | And once you replace the curiosity with the compliance, you get an obedient | 一旦你把好奇心换成服从 就会得到服从 |
| 1656 | factory worker, but you no longer get a creative thinker and you need creativity. | 工厂工人,但你不再 有创意的思想家 你需要创造力。 |
| 1657 | You need that ability to feed your own brain, to learn whatever you want. | 你需要这种能力 养活你自己的大脑, 学习任何你想要的。 |
| 1658 | And to me, foundational things are principles. | 对我来说,基础是原则。 |
| 1659 | There are algorithms, they're deep seated, logical understanding where you can | 有算法,它们坐的很深 符合逻辑的理解,你可以 |
| 1660 | defend it or attack it from any angle. | 保护它或从任何角度攻击它。 |
| 1661 | And that's why microeconomics is important because macroeconomics are a | 这就是为什么微观经济学很重要 因为宏观经济学是 |
| 1662 | lot of memorization, a lot of macro bullshit as Nassim Taleb says, it is | 像纳西姆·塔莱布所说, 大量的宏大废话, |
| 1663 | easier to macro bullshit than it is to micro bullshit because macroeconomics | 宏观的废话比微观的废话容易 因为宏观经济学 |
| 1664 | is voodoo complex science meets politics. | 是巫术复杂的科学与政治相遇 |
| 1665 | You can't find two macroeconomists to agree on anything these days. | 这些天你找不到两个宏观经济学家来同意任何事情. |
| 1666 | And different macroeconomists get used by different politicians to | 不同的宏观经济家 被不同的政客用来 |
| 1667 | peddle their different pet theories. | 玩弄他们不同的宠物理论。 |
| 1668 | There are even macroeconomists out there now peddling something called | 外面甚至还有宏观经济家,现在在兜圈子 |
| 1669 | modern monetary theory, which says, Hey, except for this pesky thing called | 现代的货币理论,它说,嘿, 除了这个叫 |
| 1670 | inflation, we can just print all the money that we want. | 通货膨胀,我们只要打印所有我们想要的钱。 |
| 1671 | Yes, except for this pesky thing called inflation. | 是的,除了这个叫通货膨胀的讨厌的东西 |
| 1672 | That's like saying instead of limited energy, we can fire rockets off | 这就像说,而不是有限的能量, 我们可以发射火箭关闭 |
| 1673 | into space all day long. | 进入太空一整天。 |
| 1674 | It's just nonsense. | 胡说八道 |
| 1675 | But the fact that there are people who have macroeconomists in their title and | 但事实上,有些人 拥有宏观经济学家的头衔和 |
| 1676 | are peddling modern monetary theory just tells you that macroeconomics as a | 现代货币理论 说宏观经济学是 |
| 1677 | so-called science has been corrupted. | 所谓的科学已经腐化了 |
| 1678 | It's a blanch of politics. | 政事 a. |
| 1679 | So you really want to focus on the foundations foundation. | 所以,你真的想专注于基金会。 |
| 1680 | The ultimate foundation are mathematics and logic. | 最终基础是数学和逻辑学. |
| 1681 | If you understand logic and mathematics, then you have the basis for | 如果你理解逻辑和数学 那你有基础 |
| 1682 | understanding the scientific method. | 了解科学方法。 |
| 1683 | Once you understand the scientific method, then you can understand how to | 一旦你理解了科学方法,你就能理解如何 |
| 1684 | separate truth from falsehood in other fields and other things that you're reading. | 将真理与你所读的 其他领域和其他事物的谎言分开 |
| 1685 | So be very careful about reading other people's opinions and even be careful | 所以,要非常小心 阅读别人的意见,甚至小心 |
| 1686 | about reading facts because so-called facts are often just opinions, but, you | 关于阅读事实 因为所谓的事实 往往只是观点,但,你 |
| 1687 | know, with a veneer around them, what you really are looking for is algorithms, | 你知道,在他们周围的阴森, 你真正寻找的是算法, |
| 1688 | what you're really looking for is understanding. | 你真正寻求的就是理解 |
| 1689 | It's better to go through a book really slowly and struggle and stumble and | 最好慢慢地读一本书 然后挣扎 摔倒 |
| 1690 | rewind than it is to fly through it quickly and say, well, now I've read 20 | 倒影比它要快 飞过它,说,嗯,我已经读了20 |
| 1691 | books, I've read 30 books, I've read 50 books in the field. | 书籍,我读过三十本,田里读过五十本. |
| 1692 | It's like Bruce Lee said, I don't fear the man who knows a thousand kicks and | 就像李小龙说的,我不怕知道千脚的人 |
| 1693 | a thousand punches, I fear the man who's practiced one punch 10,000 times or | 一千拳,我怕那个 练了一万拳的人 |
| 1694 | one kick 10,000 times. | 一脚一万次。 |
| 1695 | It's the understanding that comes through repetition and through usage and through | 是通过重复、使用和 |
| 1696 | logic and foundations that really makes you a smart thinker. | 逻辑和基础让你真正成为一个聪明的思想家. |
| 1697 | To lay a foundation for learning for the rest of your life, I think you need two | 为了为余生的学习奠定基础 我想你需要两个 |
| 1698 | things if I was going to try and sum it up, one, practical persuasion, and two, | 如果我想总结一下,一,实际说服,二, |
| 1699 | you need to go deep in some technical category, whether it's abstract math, or | 你需要深入一些技术类, 无论是抽象的数学, |
| 1700 | you want to read Donald Knuth's books on algorithms, or you want to read Feynman's | 你想读唐纳德·克努斯关于算法的书 或者你想读费曼的书 |
| 1701 | lectures on physics, if you have practical persuasion and a deep understanding of | 如果你对物理学有实际的说服力和深刻的理解 |
| 1702 | some complex topic, I think you'll have a great foundation for learning for the | 一些复杂的话题, 我想你会有一个伟大的基础 为学习 |
| 1703 | rest of your life. | 一辈子 |
| 1704 | Yeah, if I could expand that a little bit, I would say that the five most important | 是啊,如果我可以扩大一点点, 我会说,五个最重要的 |
| 1705 | skills are, of course, reading, writing, arithmetic, and then as you are adding in | 当然,技能是阅读、写作、算术,然后如您所加 |
| 1706 | persuasion, which is talking, and then finally, I would add computer programming, | 说服,这是在谈论, 最后,我会增加计算机编程, |
| 1707 | just because it's an applied form of arithmetic that just gets you so much | 因为它是一种应用的算术形式 只是让你得到这么多 |
| 1708 | leverage for free in any domain that you operate in. | 在您操作的任意域中免费使用杠杆 。 |
| 1709 | If you're good with computers, if you're good at basic mathematics, if you're good | 如果你精通计算机, 如果你精通基本的数学, 如果你精通 |
| 1710 | at writing, if you're good at speaking, and if you like reading, you're set for | 写作时,如果你擅长演讲, 如果你喜欢阅读,你就可以 |
| 1711 | life. | 活着 |
| 1712 | So in that sense, business to me is bottom of the barrel. | 因此,从这个意义上讲, 生意对我来说是桶底。 |
| 1713 | There's no actual skill called business. | 没有真正的技能叫生意 |
| 1714 | It's too generic of a thing. | 这太普通的东西。 |
| 1715 | It's like a skill called relating, like relating to humans. | 这就像一种技能 被称为关联, 像与人类相关。 |
| 1716 | That's not a skill. | 这不是一个技能。 |
| 1717 | It's too broad. | 太宽了 |
| 1718 | So a lot of what goes on in business schools, and there's some very intelligent | 在商学院里发生了很多事情 有一些很聪明的事 |
| 1719 | stuff taught in business schools. | 在商学院教的东西。 |
| 1720 | I don't mean to distract from them completely, but some of the stuff that's | 我无意完全分散他们的注意力 但有些东西是 |
| 1721 | taught in business school is essentially just anecdotes. | 在商学院教书基本上只是传闻。 |
| 1722 | They call it case studies, but it's just anecdotes and they're trying to help you | 他们称之为案例研究,但这只是传闻 他们试图帮助你 |
| 1723 | pattern match by throwing lots of data points at you. | 模式匹配方式是向您投掷很多数据点。 |
| 1724 | But the reality is you will never understand them fully until you're actually | 但现实是你永远无法完全理解他们 直到你真正 |
| 1725 | in that position yourself. | 在那个位置你自己。 |
| 1726 | Even then, you will find that basic concepts from game theory and psychology | 即使这样,你也会发现 游戏理论和心理学的基本概念 |
| 1727 | and ethics and mathematics and computers and logic will serve you much, much | 伦理学、数学、计算机和逻辑学 将会为您带来很多好处 |
| 1728 | better. | 好多了,你还好吧? |
| 1729 | So I would focus on the foundations. | 所以我要集中关注基础。 |
| 1730 | I would focus with a science bent. | 我会专心于科学 |
| 1731 | I would develop a love for reading, including by reading so-called junk food | 我会发展对阅读的热爱,包括阅读所谓的垃圾食品 |
| 1732 | that you're not supposed to read. | 你不应该读。 |
| 1733 | You don't have to read the classics. | 不须诵经典. |
| 1734 | That is a foundation for your self education. | 这是你们自我教育的基础。 |
| 1735 | What did you mean when you said that doing is faster than watching? | 你说做比看快是什么意思? |
| 1736 | When it comes to your learning curve, if you want to optimize your learning curve, | 当你的学习曲线, 如果你想优化你的学习曲线, |
| 1737 | one of the reasons why I don't love podcasts, even though I'm a generator of | 虽然我是一个发明者,但我不喜欢播客的原因之一 |
| 1738 | podcasts, is that I like to consume my information very quickly. | 播客,是我喜欢消耗 我的信息非常快。 |
| 1739 | And now I'm a good reader, a fast reader, and I can read very fast, but I can only | 现在,我是一个很好的读者, 一个快速的读者, 我可以阅读非常快, 但我只能 |
| 1740 | listen at a certain speed. | 以一定的速度聆听。 |
| 1741 | I know people listen to 2X, 3X, but everyone sounds like a chipmunk and it's | 我知道人们听2X,3X, 但每个人都听起来像一个花栗鼠,这是 |
| 1742 | hard to go back. | 很难回去。 |
| 1743 | It's hard to highlight. | 难为突出. |
| 1744 | It's hard to pinpoint snippets and save them in your notebook and so on. | 很难确定片段 并保存在你的笔记本等。 |
| 1745 | Similarly, a lot of people think they can become really skilled at something by | 类似地,很多人认为 他们可以真正成为技能 通过某事 |
| 1746 | watching others do it or even by reading about others doing it and going back to | 看着别人做,甚至看到别人做,然后回去 |
| 1747 | business school case study. | 商业学校案例研究。 |
| 1748 | That's a classic example. | 这是一个典型的例子。 |
| 1749 | You know, they study other people's businesses, but in reality, you're going to | 你知道,他们研究别人的生意, 但实际上,你会 |
| 1750 | learn a lot more about running a business by operating your own lemonade stand or | 更多关于经营企业的学习 通过操作自己的柠檬水摊或者 |
| 1751 | equivalent, or even opening a little retail store down the street. | 或者在街上开个零售店 |
| 1752 | That is how you're going to learn on the job, because a lot of the subtleties | 这就是你如何学习的工作, 因为很多微妙 |
| 1753 | don't express themselves until you're actually running the business. | 在你实际经营生意之前 不要表达自己 |
| 1754 | For example, everyone's now into mental models these days, right? | 举个例子,现在每个人都喜欢心理模型了,对吧? |
| 1755 | You go to Farnham Street, you go to poor Charlie's Almanac, and you can learn all | 你去法恩汉姆街, 去可怜的查理的阿尔马纳克, 你可以学习所有 |
| 1756 | the different mental models, but which ones matter more? | 不同的心理模型, 但哪些更重要? |
| 1757 | Which ones do you apply more often? | 你经常申请哪一个? |
| 1758 | Which ones matter in which circumstances? | 哪种情况很重要? |
| 1759 | That's actually the hard part. | 这其实是困难的部分。 |
| 1760 | For example, my personal learning has been that the principal agent problem drives | 例如,我个人的学问是, 主要的代理问题驱动 |
| 1761 | so much in this world. | 这世上这么多 |
| 1762 | It's an incentives problem. | 这是一个激励问题。 |
| 1763 | You know, I've learned that tit for tat, iterative prisoner's dilemma is the piece | 你知道,我学会了奶子的Tat,迭代 囚犯的两难境地是一块 |
| 1764 | of game theory that is worth knowing the most. | 游戏理论 值得最了解。 |
| 1765 | You can literally almost put down the game theory book after that. | 你可以把游戏理论书 写下来 |
| 1766 | By the way, the best way to learn game theory is to play lots of games. | 顺便说一句,学习游戏理论的最佳方法就是玩很多游戏. |
| 1767 | I never even read game theory books. | 我甚至从来没有读过游戏理论书籍。 |
| 1768 | I consider myself extremely good at game theory. | 我认为自己非常擅长游戏理论。 |
| 1769 | I've never opened up a game theory book and found a result in there where I was | 我从来没有打开一本游戏理论书 在那里发现了一个结果 |
| 1770 | like, oh, yeah, that's common sense to me because the reason is I just grew up | 就像,哦,是的,这对我来说是常识 因为原因是我刚刚长大 |
| 1771 | playing all kinds of games and I ran into all kinds of corner cases with all kinds | 玩各种游戏,我碰上各种角落的案子 |
| 1772 | of friends, and so it's just second nature to me. | 朋友,所以这只是我的第二性。 |
| 1773 | So you can always learn better by doing on the job. | 这样你就能在工作上学得更好 |
| 1774 | But the doing is a subtle thing that we're doing encapsulates a lot. | 但是,我们这样做是一件微妙的事情,它包罗了很多东西。 |
| 1775 | So, for example, let's say I want to learn how to run a business. | 因此,比如说,我想学习如何经营企业。 |
| 1776 | Well, if I start a business where I go in every day and I'm doing the same thing, | 好吧,如果我开始一个生意 在那里我每天去 我做同样的事情, |
| 1777 | let's say I'm running the retail store down the street where I'm stocking the | 假设我经营的零售店 在街上,我储存 |
| 1778 | shelves with food and liquor every single day, I'm not going to learn that much | 每天有食物和酒的货架,我不会学到那么多 |
| 1779 | because I'm repeating things a lot. | 因为我经常重复 |
| 1780 | So I'm putting in thousands of hours, but there are thousands of hours doing the | 所以我要投入上千小时 但还有上千小时 |
| 1781 | same thing. | 同样的事情。 |
| 1782 | Whereas if I was putting in thousands of iterations, that would be | 如果我放上千次重复的话,那就是 |
| 1783 | different. | 不一样 |
| 1784 | So learning curve is across iterations. | 因此,学习曲线是跨越迭代的。 |
| 1785 | So if I was trying new marketing experiments, the store all the time, I was | 所以,如果我尝试新的营销实验, 商店所有的时间,我是 |
| 1786 | constantly changing out the inventory. | 不断更改清单 |
| 1787 | I was constantly changing out the branding and the messaging. | 我不停地改变 品牌和消息。 |
| 1788 | I was constantly changing the sign. | 我不停地改变标志。 |
| 1789 | I was constantly changing the online channels that I was used to drive foot | 我不停地改变我用来驾驶脚的网络频道 |
| 1790 | traffic in. | 堵车 |
| 1791 | I was experimenting with being open at different hours. | 我尝试在不同时间开放 |
| 1792 | If I even had the ability to walk around and talk to other store owners and get | 如果我甚至有能力 四处走走 和别的店主交谈 并得到 |
| 1793 | in their books and figure out how they're running their business, it's the number | 在他们的书里 找出他们的经营方式 这是数字 |
| 1794 | of iterations that drives a learning curve. | 驱动学习曲线的迭代。 |
| 1795 | So the more iterations you can have, the more shots on goal you can have, the | 因此,越多的迭代 你可以得到, |
| 1796 | faster you're going to learn. | 学得更快 |
| 1797 | It's not just about the hours put in. | 不只是时间问题 |
| 1798 | It's actually a combination of the two. | 实际上是两者的结合. |
| 1799 | But I think just the way we're built and the way that the world presents itself, | 但我认为我们的方式 和世界展示自己的方式, |
| 1800 | the world offers us very easily the opportunity to do the same thing over and | 世界为我们提供了非常容易的机会 做同样的事情 |
| 1801 | over and over again. | 一次又一次 |
| 1802 | But really, we'd be better served if we went off and found ways to do new things | 但是,真的,如果我们走出去 并找到方法做新的事情,我们会得到更好的服务 |
| 1803 | from scratch. | 从零开始。 |
| 1804 | And doing something new the first time is painful because you're | 第一次做新的事情很痛苦 因为你 |
| 1805 | wandering into uncertain territory and high odds are that you will fail. | 游荡在不确定的领地 和很高的概率是 你会失败。 |
| 1806 | So you just have to get very, very comfortable with frequent small failures. | 所以,你只需要变得非常,非常舒适 对于频繁的小故障。 |
| 1807 | You know, Nassim Taleb talks about this. | 你知道,纳西姆・塔莱布谈到这一点。 |
| 1808 | Also, he made his fortune, his wealth, by being a trader who relied upon black | 而且,他通过做一个靠黑人为生的商人来创造财富 |
| 1809 | swans. | 天鹅. |
| 1810 | Nassim Taleb made money by essentially losing little bits of money every | 纳西姆·塔莱布赚钱 基本上损失了一点钱 |
| 1811 | day. | 日报. |
| 1812 | And then once in a blue moon, he would make a lot of money when the | 然后在蓝色的月亮中 他赚了很多钱 |
| 1813 | unthinkable happened for other people. | 对其他人来说是不可思议的 |
| 1814 | Whereas most people want to make little bits of money every day and in exchange, | 大多数人每天都想赚点钱 换钱 |
| 1815 | they'll tolerate lots of blow up risk. | 他们会容忍很多爆炸风险 |
| 1816 | They'll tolerate going completely bankrupt. | 他们会容忍彻底破产 |
| 1817 | We're not evolved to bleed a little bit every day. | 我们的进化不是每天都有一点流血 |
| 1818 | If you're out in the natural environment and you get a cut and you're literally | 如果你在自然环境里,你得到了一个切,你字面上 |
| 1819 | bleeding a little bit every day, you will eventually die. | 每天都有一点流血,你终究会死的 |
| 1820 | You have to stop that cut. | 你必须停止割伤。 |
| 1821 | We're evolved for small victories all the time, but that becomes very expensive. | 我们总是为小胜利而进化,但这变得非常昂贵. |
| 1822 | That's where the crowd is. | 即众生处. |
| 1823 | her群于此. | |
| 1824 | So if you're willing to bleed a little bit every day, but in exchange, you will | 所以如果你愿意每天流血一点, 但作为交换,你会 |
| 1825 | win big later, you will do better. | 以后赢大了,你会做得更好 |
| 1826 | That is, by the way, entrepreneurship. | 顺便说一句,这就是创业。 |
| 1827 | Entrepreneurs bleed every day. | 企业家每天都流血。 |
| 1828 | They're not making money. | 他们不赚钱。 |
| 1829 | They're losing money. | 他们输了钱。 |
| 1830 | They're constantly stressed out all the responsibilities upon them. | 他们不断强调所有的责任 |
| 1831 | But when they win, they win big. | 但当他们赢了,他们赢得了大。 |
| 1832 | On average, they'll make more. | 平均来说,它们会赚更多. |
| 1833 | So why don't we jump into accountability, which I thought was pretty interesting. | 因此,我们为什么不 跳进问责制, 我认为这很有趣。 |
| 1834 | And I think you have your own unique take on it. | 我想你有自己独特的选择 |
| 1835 | So the first tweet on accountability was embrace accountability and take | 所以第一个关于问责制的微博是 接受问责制并接受 |
| 1836 | business risks under your own name. | 以自己的名义经营风险。 |
| 1837 | Society will reward you with responsibility, equity, and leverage. | 社会会以责任、公平和影响力奖励你。 |
| 1838 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 1839 | So to get rich, you're going to need leverage and leverage comes in labor, | 所以为了发财,你需要杠杆和杠杆 来劳动, |
| 1840 | it comes in capital, or it can come through code or media. | 也可以通过密码或媒体 |
| 1841 | But most of these like labor and capital, people have to give to you for labor. | 但是,大多数像劳动力和资本, 人们必须给你做劳动力。 |
| 1842 | Somebody has to follow you for capital. | 得有人跟着你才能成为资本 |
| 1843 | Somebody has to give you money or assets to manage or machines. | 总得有人给你钱或资产来管理或机器 |
| 1844 | So to get these things, you have to build up credibility and you have to do those | 因此,为了得到这些东西, 你必须建立 可信度,你必须做这些 |
| 1845 | under your own name as much as possible, which is risky. | 尽量用你自己的名字,这是危险的。 |
| 1846 | So accountability is a double edged thing. | 因此,问责制是一个双重边缘问题。 |
| 1847 | It allows you to take credit when things go well and to bear the brunt of the | 它允许你接受信用 当事情顺利 并承受首当其冲 |
| 1848 | failure when things go badly. | 情况不妙时就失败了 |
| 1849 | So in that sense, you know, people who are stamping their names on things | 因此,从这个意义上讲,你知道的, 那些在事物上印上自己名字的人 |
| 1850 | aren't foolish. | 一点都不愚蠢 |
| 1851 | They're just confident. | 他们只是自信。 |
| 1852 | Maybe it turns out to be foolish in the end, but if you look at a Kanye or an | 也许最后会很愚蠢 但如果你看着一个Kanye或者一个 |
| 1853 | Oprah or a Trump or an Elon or anyone like that, these people can get rich just | 奥普拉或特朗普、伊隆或任何类似的人 这些人可以发财 |
| 1854 | off their name because their name is such powerful branding, you know, regardless | 因为他们的名字 如此强大的品牌,你知道,无论 |
| 1855 | of what you think of Trump, you have to realize that the guy was among the best | 你对特朗普的看法, 你必须意识到,这家伙是最棒的 |
| 1856 | in the world at just branding his name. | 全世界都在为他的名字打上烙印 |
| 1857 | Why would you go to Trump casino? | 你为什么要去特朗普赌场? |
| 1858 | It used to be because Trump, why would you go to Trump tower because of Trump? | 过去是因为特朗普,为什么因为特朗普而去特朗普塔? |
| 1859 | When it came time to vote, I think there are a lot of voters who just went and | 当投票的时候,我想有很多选民 刚刚去了, |
| 1860 | said Trump, they recognize the name. | 特朗普说 他们认得这个名字 |
| 1861 | So the name recognition paid off. | 故名识果报. |
| 1862 | Same thing with Oprah. | 和奥普拉一样 |
| 1863 | She puts her brand on something, her name on something, and it flies off the shelves | 她把牌子贴在东西上 她的名字贴在东西上 然后就从书架上飞走了 |
| 1864 | and it's like instant validator. | 这就像即时验证器。 |
| 1865 | But these people also take risks for putting their name out there. | 但是这些人也冒着风险 把他们的名字放在那里。 |
| 1866 | Obviously Trump is now probably hated by half or more than half of the country | 显然特朗普现在可能 被一半或一半以上的国家讨厌 |
| 1867 | and by a big chunk of the world because he sticks his name out there by putting | 被大块世界所覆盖 因为他把他的名字贴在那里 |
| 1868 | your name out there, you become a celebrity and fame has many, many downsides. | 你的名字在那里,你成为一个名人 和名声有很多,很多缺点。 |
| 1869 | It's better to be anonymous and rich than to be poor and famous, but even famous | 匿名富贵胜于贫贱名声,但甚至名声 |
| 1870 | and rich has a lot of downsides associated with it. | 而富人也有很多与之相关的缺点. |
| 1871 | You're always in the public eye. | 常在大众眼中. |
| 1872 | So accountability is quite important. | 因此,问责制非常重要。 |
| 1873 | When you're working to build a product or you're working on a team or you're | 当努力打造产品,或者在团队中工作,或者在团队中工作. |
| 1874 | working in a business, we are constantly drummed into our heads how important it | 在企业中工作, 我们不断鼓动我们的头脑 多么重要 |
| 1875 | is to be part of a team and absolutely agree with that. | 是一个团队的一部分 绝对同意这一点。 |
| 1876 | A lot of our training socially is telling us to not stick our necks out of the | 我们的很多社交训练 告诉我们不要把脖子伸出来 |
| 1877 | crowd. | 观众。 |
| 1878 | This is saying that I hear from Australian friends that like the tall | 这就是说,我从澳大利亚朋友那里听到的 像高个子一样 |
| 1879 | poppy gets cut, right? | 罂粟被割了,对吧? |
| 1880 | Don't stick your neck out. | 别把脖子伸出来 |
| 1881 | But I would say that actually a really, really well-functioning team is small | 但我会说,实际上 一个真正,真正运行良好的团队是小 |
| 1882 | and has clear accountability for each of the different portions. | 并且对每个不同部分都有明确的责任。 |
| 1883 | Like so you can say, OK, this person is responsible for building the product. | 比如说,好吧,这个人负责制造产品。 |
| 1884 | This person is responsible for the messaging. | 这个人负责留言 |
| 1885 | This person is responsible for raising money. | 这个人负责筹款. |
| 1886 | This person is responsible for the pricing strategy and maybe the online advertising. | 此人负责定价策略,也许负责在线广告. |
| 1887 | So if somebody screws up, you know exactly who's responsible. | 所以,如果有人搞砸了, 你知道谁的责任。 |
| 1888 | While at the same time, something goes really well. | 与此同时,有些事情进展得很好。 |
| 1889 | You also know exactly who's responsible. | 你也知道谁负责 |
| 1890 | So if you have a small team and you have clearly delineated responsibilities, then | 所以,如果你有一个小团队 而且你有明确的责任, 那么, |
| 1891 | you can still keep a very high level of accountability. | 您仍可保持高度问责。 |
| 1892 | And accountability is really important because when something succeeds or fails, | 问责制真的很重要 因为当某件事成功或失败时 |
| 1893 | if it fails, everybody points fingers at each other. | 如果失败了 每个人都互相指责 |
| 1894 | And if it succeeds, everybody steps forward to take credit. | 如果成功,每个人都会走在前头,以获得信用。 |
| 1895 | And we've all had that experience when we were in school and we got like a group | 我们在学校的时候都有这种经历,我们像一个团体 |
| 1896 | assignment to do and there were people in there, there were probably a few people | 任务完成 里面有人 也许有几个人 |
| 1897 | in there who did a lot of the work. | 在那里谁做了很多工作。 |
| 1898 | And then there were a few people who just did a lot of grandstanding or | 然后有几个人 刚刚做了很多的外公或 |
| 1899 | positioning to do the work. | 定位完成这项工作。 |
| 1900 | So we're all familiar with this from a childhood sense, but it is uncomfortable | 我们从童年时代就熟悉这个,但很不舒服 |
| 1901 | to talk about, but clear accountability is important. | 但明确的问责制很重要。 |
| 1902 | Without accountability, you don't have incentives. | 没有问责,你就没有激励。 |
| 1903 | Without accountability, you can't build credibility, but you take risk. | 没有问责制,你就不能建立信誉,但你要承担风险. |
| 1904 | So you take risk of failure, you take risk of humiliation, you take risk of | 所以,你承担失败的风险,你承担羞辱的风险,你承担风险 |
| 1905 | failure under your own name, which, you know, luckily in modern society, there's | 以自己的名义失败, 在现代社会,幸运的是, |
| 1906 | no more debtors prison and people don't go to jail or get executed for losing | 不会再有债务者入狱 人们也不会因为输掉而坐牢或被处死 |
| 1907 | other people's money, but we're still socially hardwired to not fail in public | 别人的钱,但是我们社会上 仍然很难在公共场合失败 |
| 1908 | under our own names. | 以我们自己的名字。 |
| 1909 | And the people who have the ability to fail in public under their own names | 以及那些能以自己的名义 公开失败的人 |
| 1910 | actually gain a lot of power. | 实际获得了很大的力量。 |
| 1911 | For example, I'll give a personal anecdote. | 例如,我会给个人的传闻。 |
| 1912 | Up until about 2013, 2014, my public persona was entirely around startups | 直到2013年,我的公众人物 完全围绕初创企业 |
| 1913 | and investing and only around 2014, 2015, did I start talking about philosophy and | 2015年左右 我开始谈论哲学 |
| 1914 | psychological things and broader things. | 心理和广义的东西。 |
| 1915 | And it made me a little nervous because I was doing it under my own name. | 这让我有点紧张 因为我是用自己的名字做的 |
| 1916 | And there were definitely people in the industry who sent me messages through the | 行业里肯定有人通过 |
| 1917 | black channel, like, what are you doing? | 黑色频道,像,你在做什么? |
| 1918 | You're ending your career. | 你结束了你的事业。 |
| 1919 | This is stupid. | 这是愚蠢的。 |
| 1920 | And I just went with it. | 我随它去。 |
| 1921 | I took a risk. | 我冒了险 |
| 1922 | Same with crypto early on. | 早期密码也一样 |
| 1923 | It took a risk. | 冒险了 |
| 1924 | But when you put your name out there, you take a risk with certain things. | 但是,当你把你的名字在那里, 你冒险 某些东西。 |
| 1925 | You also get to reap the rewards. | 你也能得到奖励 |
| 1926 | You get the benefits. | 你得到好处。 |
| 1927 | Accountability is important because that's how you're going to get leverage. | 问责制很重要,因为这样你才能获得影响力。 |
| 1928 | That's how you're going to get credibility. | 由此得证. |
| 1929 | It's also how you're going to get equity. | 亦是如何获得平等. |
| 1930 | You're going to get a piece of the business when you're negotiating with | 和你谈判时,你会得到一笔生意 |
| 1931 | other people. | 别人。 |
| 1932 | Ultimately, if someone else is making a decision about how to compensate you, | 归根结底 如果别人决定如何补偿你 |
| 1933 | that decision will be based on how replaceable you are. | 这一决定将基于你是如何可以替代。 |
| 1934 | And if you have high accountability that makes you less replaceable, and then they | 如果你有高度的问责制 让你更难替代, 然后他们 |
| 1935 | have to give you equity, which is a piece of the upside. | 得给你公平,这是件好事 |
| 1936 | But equity itself is a good example because equity is also a risk-based | 但股权本身就是一个很好的例子 因为股权也是基于风险的 |
| 1937 | instrument. | 乐器。 |
| 1938 | Equity means you get paid everything after all the people who need guaranteed | 公平意味着所有需要保障的人 都得到报酬 |
| 1939 | money are paid back. | 钱会还的 |
| 1940 | So if you look at the hierarchy of capital in a company, the employees get paid | 所以,如果你看看一个公司的资本等级, 雇员得到报酬 |
| 1941 | first. | 先说 |
| 1942 | They get to pay the salary first, like in the legal proceedings, you know, the | 他们可以先支付工资, 就像在法律诉讼中,你知道, |
| 1943 | salaries are sacrosanct. | 工资是神圣的。 |
| 1944 | If you are a board member and the company spends too much money and has back | 如果你是董事 公司花太多钱又回来了 |
| 1945 | salaries to pay, the government will go after you personally to pay back the | 薪水,政府会去 追逐你个人还 |
| 1946 | salaries. | 薪金。 |
| 1947 | So the employees get the most security, but in exchange for that security, they | 所以员工得到的安保最多, 但作为交换,他们 |
| 1948 | don't have as much upside. | 没有那么多颠倒。 |
| 1949 | Then next in line would be the debt holders who are maybe the bankers who lent | 然后,下一个排队的将是债务持有者 谁是也许银行家 谁借 |
| 1950 | money to the company for operations and they need to make their fixed coupon | 给公司的钱,他们需要 做他们的固定券 |
| 1951 | every month or every year, but they don't get much more upside beyond that. | 每月或每年,但是它们不会得到更多的颠倒。 |
| 1952 | Now they might be making 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% a year, but that's where their upside | 现在他们可能每年赚5,10,15,20,25%, 但这就是他们的颠峰之处 |
| 1953 | is limited to. | 仅限。 |
| 1954 | And then finally are the equity holders. | 最终成为股权持有者. |
| 1955 | And these people are actually going to get most of the upside. | 这些人真的会得到大部分的胜利。 |
| 1956 | So once the debt holders are paid off and the salaries are paid off, whatever | 所以一旦债主得到还清 薪水也得到还清 |
| 1957 | remains goes to them. | 遗体交给他们。 |
| 1958 | But if there isn't enough money to pay off the salaries and the debt holders, or | 但是如果没有足够的钱 支付工资和债务持有者,或 |
| 1959 | if there's just enough to pay off the salary and the debt holders, which is what | 如果有足够的钱还清工资和债主,这就是 |
| 1960 | happens with most businesses most of the times, the equity holders get nothing. | 大多数时候, 与大多数企业发生, 股东得不到任何东西。 |
| 1961 | So the equity holders take on greater risk, but then they take on in exchange, | 所以股权持有者承担了更大的风险, 但是他们承担了交换, |
| 1962 | they get nearly unlimited upside and you can do the same with all of your work. | 他们几乎无穷无尽的颠倒 而你可以做同样的事情 |
| 1963 | So essentially taking accountability for your actions is the same as taking an | 所以从本质上讲,为你们的行为承担责任,与采取 |
| 1964 | equity position in all of your work. | 在你所有的作品中都占有平等的地位。 |
| 1965 | You're essentially taking greater downside risk and greater upside risk, but | 你基本上承担了更大的下行风险和更大的倒置风险,但 |
| 1966 | realize that in modern society, the downside risk is not that large. | 认识到在现代社会中,下滑的风险并不大。 |
| 1967 | You know, even personal bankruptcy can wipe the debts clean in good ecosystems. | 即使是个人破产 也能在良好的生态系统中清理债务 |
| 1968 | I'm most familiar with Silicon Valley, but generally people will forgive | 我对硅谷最熟悉 但一般人们都会原谅 |
| 1969 | failures as long as you are honest and made a high integrity effort. | 失败,只要你诚实,并付出了很高的诚信努力。 |
| 1970 | So there's not really that much to fear in terms of failure. | 因此在失败方面并没有那么多的恐惧. |
| 1971 | And so people should be taking on a lot more accountability than they actually are. | 所以人们应该承担比实际更多的责任。 |
| 1972 | Is accountability actually fragile or do you really just mean that we're hardwired | 责任其实很脆弱 还是你只是说我们是铁丝网 |
| 1973 | not to fail in public so it just feels like it's a fragile thing? | 不要在公共场合失败,所以它只是感觉 这是一种脆弱的事情? |
| 1974 | I think it could actually be fragile. | 我认为它实际上可能是脆弱的。 |
| 1975 | The example of accountability is you're an airplane pilot. | 问责的例子是你是飞机飞行员 |
| 1976 | As a captain, you're taking on accountability for the entire plane. | 作为机长,你承担着整个飞机的责任. |
| 1977 | Let's say that something goes wrong with the aircraft. | 假设飞机出了问题 |
| 1978 | You can't later blame it on anyone else. | 你以后不能怪别人 |
| 1979 | You can't blame it on the steward or the stewardess. | 你不能把责任归咎于女服务员或女服务员 |
| 1980 | You can't blame it on the co-pilot. | 不能怪副驾驶. |
| 1981 | You're the captain. | 你是船长 |
| 1982 | You're responsible for the ship. | 你对这艘船负责 |
| 1983 | And if you screw up, you crash the ship and there are immediate consequences. | 如果你搞砸了,你会撞到船, 并有立即的后果。 |
| 1984 | In the old days, you know, the captain was expected to go down with the ship. | 在旧时,你知道,船长应该和船一起下去。 |
| 1985 | If the ship was sinking, literally the last person who got to get off was the captain. | 如果船在沉没 最后一个下车的人就是船长 |
| 1986 | So, yeah, I think accountability does come with real risks, but we're talking | 所以,是的,我认为 问责制确实带来 真正的风险,但我们正在谈论 |
| 1987 | about in a business context, the risk here would be that you would probably be the | 在商业背景下,这里的风险是 你可能是 |
| 1988 | last one to get your capital back out. | 最后一个让你的资本 回来。 |
| 1989 | You'd be the last one to get paid for your time. | 你会是最后一个 得到报酬你的时间。 |
| 1990 | So, you know, the time that you put in the capital that you put in into the company, | 所以,你知道,时间 你投入资本 你投入到公司, |
| 1991 | these are what are at risk. | 这些都是危险。 |
| 1992 | Even if a business fails and your name's on it, that's not as bad as if it turns | 就算生意失败了 你的名字在上面 也没那么糟糕 |
| 1993 | out to be an integrity issue like you're Bernie Madoff, for example, Madoff | 像伯尼·麦道夫一样的正直问题 比如麦道夫 |
| 1994 | Investments, that name is never going to be good again in the investment community. | 投资,这个名字在投资界再也不会好起来. |
| 1995 | You could be Bernie Madoff's great, great, great grandson. | 你可能是伯尼・麦道夫的伟大,伟大的,伟大的孙子。 |
| 1996 | You're not going to go into the investment business because you ruin the family name. | 你不会去投资业务 因为你毁了姓氏。 |
| 1997 | So I think these days, the accountability risk with the name happens more around | 所以我觉得现在 名字的问责风险 更多发生在周围 |
| 1998 | integrity rather than it does around purely economic failure. | 正直而不是纯粹的经济失败。 |
| 1999 | The big takeaway for me on accountability is that you will be rewarded directly in | 对于我来说 责任的最大的外卖 就是直接奖励你 |
| 2000 | proportion with your accountability. | 比例与您的责任。 |
| 2001 | I also think this is why people like Taleb rail against CEOs who get | 我也认为这就是为什么人们喜欢塔列布铁路 对抗获得 |
| 2002 | rewards without accountability. | 奖励不负责任。 |
| 2003 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 2004 | I mean, Taleb's skin in the game is required reading. | 我是说 Taleb在游戏中的皮肤需要阅读 |
| 2005 | If you want to get anywhere in modern life and understand how modern systems work, | 如果你想在现代生活中有所作为 了解现代系统是如何运作的 |
| 2006 | then skin in the game would be near top of my list to read. | 然后在游戏中的皮肤 将接近我的列表阅读。 |
| 2007 | But yes, accountability, skin in the game. | 但是,是的,责任, 皮肤在游戏中。 |
| 2008 | These concepts go very closely hand in hand. | 这些概念紧密相连。 |
| 2009 | I think of accountability as reputational skin in the game. | 我认为,问责制是游戏中的名声。 |
| 2010 | It's putting your personal reputation on the line as skin in the game. | 这让你个人的名声在游戏中暴露 |
| 2011 | Accountability is a simple concept. | 问责制是一个简单的概念。 |
| 2012 | The only part of accountability that may be a little counterintuitive is that we're | 问责制中唯一可能有点反感的部分就是我们 |
| 2013 | currently socially brainwashed to not take on accountability, not in a visible way. | 目前社会上洗脑,不承担问责责任,没有明显的责任。 |
| 2014 | But I think there are ways to take on accountability where every member of a team | 但我认为在团队的每个成员 都有责任 |
| 2015 | can take on accountability for their portion. | 可以承担他们的责任。 |
| 2016 | And that is how you get a well-functioning team while still putting credits and losses | 这就是你如何得到一个运转良好的团队 同时仍然放信用和损失 |
| 2017 | in the correct columns. | 在正确的栏中。 |
| 2018 | So why don't we talk a little bit about leverage. | 所以,我们为什么不谈一下杠杆。 |
| 2019 | The first tweet in the storm was a famous quote from Archimedes, which was, | 风暴中的第一个推文是Archimedes的著名引文,即, |
| 2020 | give me a lever long enough and a place to stand and I will move the earth. | 给我一个足够长的杠杆和一个站的地方 我会移动地球。 |
| 2021 | The next tweet was, fortunes require leverage. | 接下来的推文是,财富需要杠杆. |
| 2022 | Business leverage comes from capital, people and products with no marginal | 企业杠杆来自资本、人和没有边际产品 |
| 2023 | cost of replication. | 复制费用。 |
| 2024 | Leverage is critical. | 杠杆是关键。 |
| 2025 | The reason I stuck an Archimedes quote in there is normally I don't like putting | 我之所以把Archimedes的引言塞进去 通常我不喜欢放 |
| 2026 | other people's quotes in my Twitter. | 我推特上的其他人的报价 |
| 2027 | Like that doesn't add any value. | 喜欢这并不增加任何价值。 |
| 2028 | You can go look up those people's quotes, but this quote I had to put in there | 你可以去查查那些人的引用, 但这个引用我不得不放在那里 |
| 2029 | because it's just so fundamental. | 因为这太重要了 |
| 2030 | I read it when I was very, very young and it had a huge impression on me. | 当我非常,非常年轻的时候,我读了它 它给我留下了巨大的印象。 |
| 2031 | And we all know what leverage is when we use a seesaw or a lever. | 我们都知道,当我们使用锯木或杠杆时,杠杆是什么。 |
| 2032 | We understand how that works physically. | 我们了解这在身体上是如何运作的。 |
| 2033 | But I think what our brains aren't really well evolved to comprehend is how much | 但我认为我们的大脑进化得不太清楚 是多少 |
| 2034 | leverage is possible in modern society and what the newest forms of leverage are. | 在现代社会中可以发挥杠杆作用,以及最新的杠杆形式是什么。 |
| 2035 | And so the oldest form of leverage is labor, which is people working for you. | 所以最古老的杠杆形式是劳动, 这就是为你们工作的人。 |
| 2036 | So instead of me lifting rocks, I can have 10 people lift rocks. | 所以我可以让10个人去搬石头。 |
| 2037 | Then just by my guidance and where the rocks should go, a lot more rocks get | 然后在我的引导下 岩石应该去的地方 得到更多的岩石 |
| 2038 | moved than I could do myself. | 动得我无法自拔 |
| 2039 | Everybody understands this because we're evolved to understand the labor | 每个人都明白这一点,因为我们进化 了解劳动力 |
| 2040 | form of leverage. | 一种杠杆形式。 |
| 2041 | And so what happens is society overvalues labor as a form of leverage. | 因此,社会将劳动力视为一种杠杆。 |
| 2042 | This is why your parents are impressed when you get a promotion and you have | 这就是为什么你的父母 印象深刻 当你得到晋升,你有 |
| 2043 | lots of people working underneath you. | 很多人在你们下面工作 |
| 2044 | This is why when a lot of naive people, when you tell them about your company, | 这就是为什么很多天真的人 当你告诉他们你的公司 |
| 2045 | they'll say, how many people work there? | 他们会说,有多少人在那里工作? |
| 2046 | They'll use that as a way to establish credibility. | 他们会用它来建立信誉 |
| 2047 | They're trying to measure how much leverage and impact you actually have. | 他们试图衡量你的实际影响力和影响。 |
| 2048 | Or when someone starts a movement, they'll say how many people they have or | 或者当有人发起运动时 他们会说他们有多少人 |
| 2049 | how big the army is. | 军队有多大? |
| 2050 | We just automatically assume that more people is better, but I would argue that | 我们只是自动假设更多的人更好, 但我会说 |
| 2051 | this is the worst form of leverage that you could possibly use. | 这是最糟糕的杠杆形式 你可以使用。 |
| 2052 | Managing other people is incredibly messy. | 管理别人太乱了 |
| 2053 | It requires tremendous leadership skills. | 这需要巨大的领导技能。 |
| 2054 | You're one short hop from a mutiny or getting eaten or torn apart by the mob. | 你只是从兵变中逃出来 被暴徒吃掉或撕裂的短路 |
| 2055 | It's incredibly competed over. | 令人难以置信的竞争。 |
| 2056 | Entire civilizations have been destroyed over this fight. | 这场战斗摧毁了整个文明。 |
| 2057 | For example, communism, Marxism is all about the battle between capital and | 例如,共产主义,马克思主义都是关于首都与首都之间的战斗. |
| 2058 | 劳动, das Kapital au und das 劳动力,对不对? | |
| 2059 | So it's a trap. | 故曰陷阱. |
| 2060 | So you really want to stay out of labor based leverage. | 所以,你真的想 远离劳动力的杠杆。 |
| 2061 | You want the minimum amount of people working with you that are going to allow | 你想要最少的人 和你一起工作 允许 |
| 2062 | you to use the other forms of leverage, which I would argue are much more | 你用其他的筹码,我更认为 |
| 2063 | interesting. | 有趣,你喜欢我 |
| 2064 | The second type of leverage is capital. | 第二类杠杆是资本。 |
| 2065 | And this one's a little less hardwired into us because large amounts of money | 而这一个有点少 硬连接到我们 因为大量的钱 |
| 2066 | moving around and being saved and being invested in money markets. | 四处移动 被拯救 被投资于货币市场 |
| 2067 | These are inventions of human beings in the last few hundred to few thousand | 这些是人类过去几百到几千年的发明 |
| 2068 | years. | 岁月 |
| 2069 | They're not evolved with us from hundreds of thousands of years. | 它们不是从数十万年中 与我们一起进化出来的 |
| 2070 | So we understand them a little bit less well. | 所以,我们了解他们 有点少。 |
| 2071 | They probably require more intelligence to use correctly and the ways in which | 它们可能需要更多的智力才能正确使用,以及如何使用 |
| 2072 | we use them keep changing. | 我们用它们不断改变。 |
| 2073 | Management skills from 100 years ago might still apply today, but investing in | 从100年前起的管理技能可能今天仍然适用,但投资 |
| 2074 | the stock market skills from 100 years ago probably don't apply to the same | 一百年前的股票市场技能 可能就不一样了 |
| 2075 | level today. | 级别为今天。 |
| 2076 | So capital is a trickier form of leverage to use. | 因此,资本是一种更巧妙的杠杆形式。 |
| 2077 | It's more modern. | 比较现代. |
| 2078 | It's the one that people have used to get fabulously wealthy in the last century. | 这是上个世纪里人们最富有的地方 |
| 2079 | It's probably been the dominant form of leverage in the last century. | 这可能是上个世纪的主流杠杆形式. |
| 2080 | And you can see this by who are the richest people. | 你可以从谁是最富有的人看出来。 |
| 2081 | It's bankers, politicians in corrupt countries who print money, essentially | 是银行家,腐败国家的政客 印钞票,基本上 |
| 2082 | people who move large amounts of money around. | 那些转移大量资金的人 |
| 2083 | And if you look at the top of very large companies outside of technology | 如果你看看科技以外的大公司 |
| 2084 | companies in many, many large old companies, the CEO job is really a | 许多大老公司的公司 首席执行官的工作其实是 |
| 2085 | financial job. | 财务工作。 |
| 2086 | They're really financial asset managers. | 他们是真正的金融资产管理者。 |
| 2087 | Now, sometimes an asset manager can put a pleasant face on it. | 有时候资产经理可以给它贴上一个愉快的表情 |
| 2088 | So you get a Warren Buffett type, but deep down, I think we all dislike | 所以,你得到一个沃伦巴菲特类型, 但内心深处,我想我们都不喜欢 |
| 2089 | capital as a form of leverage because it feels unfair because it's this | 资本是杠杆的一种形式 因为它觉得不公平 因为是这样 |
| 2090 | invisible thing that can be accumulated and passed across generations and | 无形的东西,可以积累和传递 世代和 |
| 2091 | suddenly seems to result in people having gargantuan amounts of money with | 突然间,人们似乎 拥有大量钱与 |
| 2092 | nobody else kind of around them or necessarily sharing in it. | 周围没有别人 或必须分享。 |
| 2093 | That said, capital is a powerful form of leverage. | 尽管如此,资本是一种强大的杠杆形式。 |
| 2094 | It can be converted to labor. | 可以转为劳动. |
| 2095 | It can be converted to other things. | 它可以转换成其他的东西。 |
| 2096 | It's very surgical, very analytical. | 它非常外科手术,非常具有分析性. |
| 2097 | If you are a brilliant investor and you have a billion dollars and you can make | 如果你是一个杰出的投资人 你有10亿美元,你可以赚 |
| 2098 | a 30% return with it, where anybody else can only make a 20% return, you're | 30%的回报率 其他人只有20%的回报率 |
| 2099 | going to get all the money and you're going to get paid very handsomely for it. | 要得到所有的钱 你会得到非常 英俊的报酬为此。 |
| 2100 | It scales very, very well. | 它的尺度非常,非常好。 |
| 2101 | If you get good at managing capital, you can manage more and more capital, much | 如果你善于管理资本 你可以管理越来越多的资本 |
| 2102 | more easily, they can manage more and more people. | 他们更容易管理越来越多的人 |
| 2103 | So it is a good form of leverage, but the hard part with capital is how do you | 所以,这是一个很好的杠杆形式, 但资本的艰难部分是 你如何 |
| 2104 | obtain it? | 拿到了吗? |
| 2105 | And that's why I talked about specific knowledge and accountability | 这就是为什么我谈论具体的知识和责任 |
| 2106 | first. | 先说 |
| 2107 | If you have specific knowledge in a domain and if you're accountable and you | 如果你在某个领域有特定知识 如果你负责,你 |
| 2108 | have a good name in that domain, then people are going to give you capital as | 有个好名字 然后人们就会给你资本 |
| 2109 | a form of leverage that you can use to then go get more capital. | 一种杠杆形式,你可以使用 然后去得到更多的资本。 |
| 2110 | So, but capital also is fairly well understood. | 所以,但资本也是相当清楚的。 |
| 2111 | And I think a lot of the knocks against capitalism come because of the | 我认为许多反对资本主义的打击 是因为 |
| 2112 | accumulation of capital. | 资本积累。 |
| 2113 | The most interesting and the most important form of leverage is this idea | 最有趣和最重要的杠杆形式就是这个想法 |
| 2114 | of products that have no marginal cost of replication. | 用于无复制边际成本的产品。 |
| 2115 | This is the new form of leverage. | 这是新的杠杆形式。 |
| 2116 | This was only invented in the last few hundred years. | 这是过去几百年才发明的 |
| 2117 | It got started with the printing press and accelerated broadcast media. | 从印刷机和加速广播媒体开始。 |
| 2118 | And now it's really blown up with the internet and with code. | 现在它真的被网络和密码炸飞了。 |
| 2119 | So now you can multiply your efforts without having to involve other humans | 所以,现在你可以加倍努力,而不必让其他人参与 |
| 2120 | and without needing money from other humans. | 不需要其他人类的钱 |
| 2121 | This podcast is a form of leverage. | 这种播客是一种杠杆形式. |
| 2122 | Long ago, I would have had to sit in a lecture hall and lecture each of you | 很久以前,我不得不坐在一个讲堂里 和你们每个人的演讲 |
| 2123 | personally, and I would have maybe reached a few hundred people. | 就我个人而言,我也许可以接触到几百人。 |
| 2124 | And that would have been that 30 years ago, I would have to be lucky to get on | 那会是30年前,我必须走运 |
| 2125 | TV, which is somebody else's leverage. | 电视,这是别人的筹码。 |
| 2126 | They would have distorted the message. | 他们会歪曲信息 |
| 2127 | They would have taken the economics out of it or charged me for it. | 他们本会把经济拿出来 或者收我的钱 |
| 2128 | They would have muddled the message and I would have been lucky to get that | 他们会把消息弄得一团糟 而我会很幸运的 |
| 2129 | form of leverage. | 一种杠杆形式。 |
| 2130 | But today, thanks to the internet, I can buy a cheap microphone, hook it up to a | 但今天,由于互联网, 我可以买一个便宜的麦克风, 把它连接到一个 |
| 2131 | laptop or an iPad, and there you are all listening. | 笔记本电脑或iPad 你们都在听 |
| 2132 | So this newest form of leverage is where all the new fortunes are made. | 因此,这种最新的杠杆形式是所有新财富的产地. |
| 2133 | So all the new billionaires, the last generation fortunes were made by capital. | 所以所有的新亿万富翁,上一代的财富都是由资本创造的. |
| 2134 | That was the Warren Buffets of the world. | 那是世界的沃伦·巴菲兹 |
| 2135 | But the new generation fortunes are all made through code or media. | 但新一代的财富都是通过代码或媒体实现的. |
| 2136 | Joe Rogan making 50 to 100 million bucks a year from his podcast, PewDiePie. | 乔·罗根每年从播客PewDiePie那里赚到5到1亿美金. |
| 2137 | I don't know how much money he's rolling in, but he's bigger than the news, right? | 我不知道他开多少钱 但他比新闻还大 对吧? |
| 2138 | The Fortnite players, of course, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg and Larry Page | 堡垒球员,当然,杰夫·贝佐斯和马克·扎克伯格和拉里·佩吉 |
| 2139 | and Sergey Brin and Bill Gates and Steve Jobs, that is all code-based leverage. | 谢尔盖·布林和比尔·盖茨和史蒂夫·乔布斯 都是基于密码的杠杆 |
| 2140 | Now, the beauty is when you combine all of these three, that's where tech | 现在,美丽的是 当你结合了所有这三个, 这就是技术 |
| 2141 | startups really excel, where you take just the minimum, but highest output labor | 初创企业真的很出色, 在那里你只需要最小的, 但产出最高的劳动力 |
| 2142 | that you can get, which are engineers and designers, product developers. | 工程师和设计师 产品开发者 |
| 2143 | And then you add in capital, you use that for marketing, advertising, scaling, | 然后加上资本,你用它来营销,广告,缩放, |
| 2144 | and you add in lots of code and media and podcasts and content to get it all out there. | 加上很多的代码、媒体、播客和内容 才能把它们都弄出来 |
| 2145 | That is a magic combination. | 这是一种魔法组合。 |
| 2146 | And that's why you see technology startups explode out of nowhere, use massive | 这就是为什么你看到科技初创 突然爆炸,使用大规模 |
| 2147 | leverage and just make huge outsize returns. | 发挥杠杆作用,使回报量大到超度 |
| 2148 | Do you want to talk a little bit about permissioned versus permissionless? | 你想谈谈允许与不允许的问题吗? |
| 2149 | Probably the most interesting thing to keep in mind about the new forms of | 也许是最有趣的事情 记住新的形式 |
| 2150 | leverage is they are permissionless. | 杠杆是它们没有被允许。 |
| 2151 | They don't require somebody else's permission for you to use them or succeed. | 他们不需要别人的许可 你才能使用或成功 |
| 2152 | For labor leverage, somebody has to decide to follow you. | 对于劳动力杠杆, 得有人决定跟随你。 |
| 2153 | For capital leverage, somebody has to give you money to invest or to turn into a | 对于资本杠杆,有人必须给你钱 投资或变成一个 |
| 2154 | product, but coding, writing books, recording podcasts, tweeting, | 产品,但编码,写书,录制播客,推特, |
| 2155 | YouTubing, these kinds of things, these are permissionless. | 你猜,这些东西,这是不允许的。 |
| 2156 | You don't need anyone's permission to do them. | 你不需要任何人的许可 |
| 2157 | And that's why they're very egalitarian. | 这就是为什么他们非常平等。 |
| 2158 | They're great equalizers of leverage. | 他们是杠杆的巨大均衡者。 |
| 2159 | And as much as people may rail on Facebook and YouTube, they're not going to | 虽然人们在脸书和YouTube上可以摇摆不定 他们不会 |
| 2160 | stop using it because this permissionless leverage where everyone can be a | 停止使用它,因为这种无授权的杠杆 在那里每个人都可以是一个 |
| 2161 | broadcaster is just too good. | 广播机太好。 |
| 2162 | The same way, you know, you can rail upon Apple for having a slightly closed | 同样的方式,你知道,你可以 栏杆苹果有一点点关闭 |
| 2163 | ecosystem in the iPhone, but everyone's writing apps for it. | iPhone中的生态系统, 但每个人都为它写应用程序。 |
| 2164 | So as long as you can write apps for it, you can get rich or reach users doing | 所以只要你能够为它编写应用程序, 你就可以发财或者联系用户 |
| 2165 | that, why not? | 那为什么不呢? |
| 2166 | I think of all the forms of leverage, the best one in modern society and people | 我想到了各种杠杆形式 现代社会中最好的一种 |
| 2167 | that this is glib, this is a little overused, but, and this is why I tell | 这是glib,这是有点过度使用, 但是,这就是为什么我告诉 |
| 2168 | people learn to code, right? | 人们学习密码,对不对? |
| 2169 | It's that we have this idea that in the future there's going to be these robots | 我们有这个想法 未来会有这些机器人 |
| 2170 | and they're going to be doing everything. | 他们会做所有的事 |
| 2171 | And that may be true, but I would say the majority of the robot revolution has | 这可能是真的, 但我会说大多数机器人革命 |
| 2172 | already happened. | 已经发生了。 |
| 2173 | The robots are already here and there are way more robots than there are humans. | 机器人已经在这里 机器人比人类还要多 |
| 2174 | It's just that we pack them in data centers for heat and efficiency reasons. | 因为热量和效率的原因 我们把它们装入数据中心 |
| 2175 | We put them in servers, they're inside the computers, all the circuits, the | 我们把它们放在服务器上, 放在电脑里面,所有的电路, |
| 2176 | robot mind inside that's doing all the work. | 里面的机器人头脑正在做所有的工作。 |
| 2177 | And so every great software developer, for example, now has an army of robots | 因此,每个伟大的软件开发者, 例如,现在有一支机器人军队 |
| 2178 | working for him at nighttime while he or she sleeps after they've written the | 晚上为他工作 晚上他或她睡觉时,他们已经写了 |
| 2179 | code and it's just cranking away. | 代码和它只是摇动了。 |
| 2180 | So the robots army is already here. | 所以机器人军队已经来了 |
| 2181 | The robot revolution has already happened. | 机器人革命已经发生了。 |
| 2182 | We're about halfway through it. | 我们快过了一半了 |
| 2183 | We're just adding in much more of the hardware component these days, as we get | 我们只是增加了更多的硬件组件 这些日子,我们得到了 |
| 2184 | more familiar, we get more comfortable with the idea of autonomous vehicles and | 更熟悉的是,我们更舒服 的想法是自主车辆和 |
| 2185 | autonomous airplanes and autonomous ships and maybe autonomous trucks and, you | 自动飞机和自动船只,也许还有自动卡车 |
| 2186 | know, there's delivery bots and Boston Dynamics robots and all that. | 有送货员和波士顿动力机器人之类的 |
| 2187 | But robots who are doing web searching for you, for example, are already here. | 但是,正在做网络搜索的机器人 已经在这里了。 |
| 2188 | You know, the ones who are like cleaning up your video and audio and transmitting | 你知道,那些像清理 你的视频和音频以及传输 |
| 2189 | around the world are already here. | 全世界已经到了这里。 |
| 2190 | The ones who are answering many customer service queries, things that you would | 那些回答许多客户服务询问的人,你愿意做的事 |
| 2191 | have had to call a human for are already here. | 不得不叫人来 因为这里已经有人了 |
| 2192 | So an army of robots is already here. | 所以一队机器人已经来了 |
| 2193 | It's very cheaply available. | 现价非常便宜. |
| 2194 | And the bottleneck is just figuring out intelligent and interesting things to do | 瓶颈只是想出 明智和有趣的事情做 |
| 2195 | to them. | 给他们。 |
| 2196 | And essentially you can order this army of robots around just the commands have | 基本上你可以命令这群机器人 周围只有命令 |
| 2197 | to be issued in a computer language, in the language that they understand. | 以他们理解的语言以计算机语言发行。 |
| 2198 | So these robots aren't very smart. | 所以这些机器人不太聪明。 |
| 2199 | They have to be told very precisely what to do and how to do it. | 必须非常准确地告诉他们该做什么以及如何去做。 |
| 2200 | So coding is such a great superpower because now you can speak the language of | 所以,编码是一个伟大的超级力量 因为现在你可以说语言 |
| 2201 | the robot armies and you can tell them what to do. | 机器人军队 你可以告诉他们该怎么做 |
| 2202 | And I think at this point, actually, people are not only commanding the army of | 此时此刻,人们不仅指挥着 |
| 2203 | robots within servers through code, they're actually manipulating the movement of | 服务器内的机器人通过代码, 他们实际上在操纵移动 |
| 2204 | trucks of other people, just ordering a package on Amazon. | 其他人的卡车, 只是订购一个包裹在亚马逊。 |
| 2205 | You're manipulating the movement of many people and many robots to get a package | 你操控着很多人和许多机器人的行动 来得到一个包裹 |
| 2206 | delivered to you. | 送给你的 |
| 2207 | People are doing the same things to build businesses now. | 人们现在也在做同样的事情来建立企业. |
| 2208 | So there's the army of robots within servers. | 所以服务器里面有一群机器人 |
| 2209 | And then there's also an army of actual robots and people that are being | 还有一群真正的机器人和人 |
| 2210 | manipulated through software. | 通过软件操纵。 |
| 2211 | Labor and capital are much less egalitarian, not just in their inputs, but in | 劳动力和资本不仅在投入方面,而且在 |
| 2212 | their outputs. | 其产出。 |
| 2213 | Let's say that I need something that humans have to provide, like if I want to | 假设我需要人类提供的东西 比如我想 |
| 2214 | massage or if I need someone to cook my food, the more of a human element there | 按摩,或者我需要人来做饭, 更多的人性元素在那里 |
| 2215 | is in providing that service, the less egalitarian it is. | 即提供这种服务,这种服务越不平等。 |
| 2216 | Jeff Bezos probably has much better vacations than most of us, right? | 杰夫·贝佐斯的假期可能比我们大多数人都好,对吧? |
| 2217 | Because he has lots of humans running around doing whatever he needs to do. | 因为他有很多人类到处跑 做他需要做的事 |
| 2218 | But if you look at the output of code in media, Jeff Bezos doesn't get to watch | 但是如果你看看媒体的代码输出 杰夫·贝佐斯就不会看 |
| 2219 | better movies and TV than we do. | 比我们更好的电影和电视。 |
| 2220 | Jeff Bezos连更好的计算经验都没有,比如Google | |
| 2221 | doesn't give him some premium special Google account where his searches are | 不给他一些高价的谷歌专用账户 在那里他的搜索 |
| 2222 | better. | 好多了,你还好吧? |
| 2223 | It's the nature of code and media output that the same product is accessible to | 密码和媒体输出的性质 同一产品可以访问 |
| 2224 | everybody. | 每个人。 |
| 2225 | And it turns into a positive sum game, where if Jeff Bezos is consuming the | 如果杰夫·贝佐斯正在消耗 |
| 2226 | same product as a thousand other people, that product would be better than the | 和一千个人一样,产品会比 |
| 2227 | version that Jeff would consume on his own. | 杰夫会自己消费的版本 |
| 2228 | Whereas with other products, that's not true. | 而与其他产品相比,这不是真的。 |
| 2229 | If you look at something like buying a Rolex, which is no longer about telling | 如果你看的东西 像购买劳力士, 这已经不是说 |
| 2230 | time, it's a signaling good. | 时间,这是一个信号良好的。 |
| 2231 | It's all about showing off, I have a Rolex. | 这一切都是为了炫耀,我有劳力士。 |
| 2232 | That's a zero sum game. | 这是零和游戏。 |
| 2233 | If everybody in the world is wearing a Rolex, then people don't want to wear | 如果世界上每个人都穿着劳力士,那么人们就不想穿 |
| 2234 | Rolexes anymore because they no longer signal. | 劳力士已经不再发出信号了 |
| 2235 | It's canceled out the effect. | 它取消了效果。 |
| 2236 | And so rich people do have an advantage in consuming that product. | 所以富人确实有消费这种产品的优势。 |
| 2237 | They'll just price it up till only they can have Rolexes and then poor people | 他们只会给钱,直到他们有劳力士和穷人 |
| 2238 | can't have Rolexes and Rolexes resume their signaling value. | 不能让劳力士和劳力士恢复它们的信号值. |
| 2239 | 但是,比如看Netflix或者使用Google或者使用Facebook或者YouTube | |
| 2240 | or even frankly, modern day cars like rich people don't have better cars. | 甚至坦率地说,像富人这样的现代汽车没有更好的汽车. |
| 2241 | They just have weirder cars. | 他们只是有更怪的车。 |
| 2242 | You can't drive a Lamborghini on the street at any speed that makes sense for | 你不能在街上开一辆兰博基尼 任何速度都合理 |
| 2243 | a Lamborghini. | a 兰博基尼。 |
| 2244 | So it's actually a worse car in the street. | 所以其实是街上更糟糕的车. |
| 2245 | It just turned into a signaling good at that point. | 它只是变成了一个信号 良好的在这一点上。 |
| 2246 | Your sweet spot where you want to be is somewhere like a Tesla Model 3 or like a | 你的甜点,你想成为的地方 是像特斯拉模型3或像一个 |
| 2247 | Toyota Corolla is an amazing car. | 丰田科罗拉是一辆惊人的汽车. |
| 2248 | The new Toyota Corolla is a really nice car, but because it's mainstream, the | 新的丰田Corolla是一辆非常好的车, 但是因为它是主流的, |
| 2249 | technology has amortized the cost of production over the largest number of | 技术将生产成本的摊销额超过 |
| 2250 | consumers possible and the best products tend to be at the center, at the sweet | 消费者可能 和最好的产品 往往处于中心, 在甜 |
| 2251 | spot, the middle class rather than being targeted at the upper class. | 而不是针对上层阶级 |
| 2252 | So I think one of the things that we don't necessarily appreciate in modern society | 所以我认为在现代社会中 我们未必欣赏的东西之一 |
| 2253 | is as the forms of leverage have gone from being human based, labor based and | 正如杠杆形式已经从人本、劳动力本位和 |
| 2254 | being capital based to be more product and code and media based, that most of the | 以资本为基础,以更多的产品和代码为基础,以媒体为基础, |
| 2255 | goods and services that we consume are becoming much more egalitarian in their | 我们消费的商品和服务越来越平等 |
| 2256 | consumption. | 消费。 |
| 2257 | Even food is becoming that way. | 甚至食物也变得如此。 |
| 2258 | Like food is becoming cheap and abundant, at least in the first world, too much so | 就像食物越来越便宜和丰富,至少在第一世界,太过份了 |
| 2259 | to our detriment. | 对我们不利。 |
| 2260 | Jeff Bezos isn't necessarily eating better food. | 杰夫·贝佐斯不一定吃得更好 |
| 2261 | He's just eating different food or he's eating like food that's prepared and | 他只是吃不同的食物 或者他吃 像食物的准备 |
| 2262 | served theatrically. | 在剧场上 |
| 2263 | So it's almost like more of, again, the human element performance. | 因此,它几乎像更多的, 再次,人元素性能。 |
| 2264 | But the labor element out of food production has gone down massively. | 但是,粮食生产中的劳动力成分已经大幅下降。 |
| 2265 | The capital element has gone down massively. | 资本因素已经严重下降。 |
| 2266 | And so even food production itself has become more technology oriented. | 因此,甚至食品生产本身也变得更加面向技术。 |
| 2267 | And so the gap between the haves and the have nots is getting smaller. | 因此,富人和无人之间的差距正在缩小。 |
| 2268 | So if you care about ethics in wealth creation, it is better to create your | 所以如果你关心创造财富的道德, 最好创造你 |
| 2269 | wealth using code and media as leverage, because then those products are equally | 以密码和媒体为杠杆的财富,因为那么这些产品就等于 |
| 2270 | available to everybody as opposed to trying to create your wealth through labor | 而不是试图通过劳动创造财富 |
| 2271 | or capital. | 或资本。 |
| 2272 | Because what I'm referring to here is scale economies, technology products and | 因为我指的是规模经济 技术产品和 |
| 2273 | media products have such amazing scale economies that you always want to use the | 媒体产品有如此惊人的规模经济 你总是想使用 |
| 2274 | product that is used by the most people. | 被大多数人使用的产品。 |
| 2275 | The one that's used by the most people ends up having the largest budget. | 大多数人使用的那个 最终预算最多 |
| 2276 | There's no marginal cost of adding another user. | 添加另一个用户没有边际成本. |
| 2277 | And so with the largest budget, you get the highest quality. | 所以,以最大的预算, 你得到了最高的质量。 |
| 2278 | So the best TV shows are actually not going to be some obscure ones just made | 所以,最好的电视节目 实际上不会是 一些模糊的刚刚制作 |
| 2279 | for a few rich people. | 给几个有钱人 |
| 2280 | They're going to be the big budget ones like The Game of Thrones or The Breaking | 他们将会是大 预算如游戏王座或破碎 |
| 2281 | Bad or Bird Box, where they have massive, massive budgets. | 坏或鸟盒,在那里 他们有大规模,巨大的预算。 |
| 2282 | They can just use those budgets to get to a certain quality level. | 他们可以用这些预算达到一定的质量水平。 |
| 2283 | And then the rich people to be different, they have to fly to Sundance and watch a | 然后富人要不同 他们必须飞到圣丹斯 看一看 |
| 2284 | documentary because you and I aren't going to fly to Sundance because, you know, | 因为你和我不会飞到圣丹斯 |
| 2285 | that's something that bored rich people do to show off and we're not going to | 无聊的有钱人做 炫耀,我们不会 |
| 2286 | watch a documentary because most of them just aren't actually even that good. | 看一部纪录片,因为大多数都不是真的那么好。 |
| 2287 | Right. | 对 |
| 2288 | Again, if you're wealthy today for large classes of things, you spend your money | 再说一次,如果你今天有钱 做很多事情,就花你的钱 |
| 2289 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}在信号商品上 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}让别人知道你很有钱 | |
| 2290 | convert them to status as opposed to actually consuming the goods for their own | 将货物转换为地位,而不是为自身实际消费货物 |
| 2291 | sake. | 来杯啤酒 |
| 2292 | People and capital as a form of leverage have a negative externality and code and | 人和资本作为一种杠杆形式,具有负面的外部性和守则, |
| 2293 | product have a positive externality attached to them. | 产品具有积极的外部性。 |
| 2294 | If I was going to sum up your point, I think that capital and labor are also | 如果我要总结你的观点 我认为资本和劳动力也是 |
| 2295 | starting to become a little more permissionless, or at least the | 开始变得有点没有授权, 或者至少 |
| 2296 | permissioning is diffuse because of the internet. | 由于互联网,授权是分散的。 |
| 2297 | So instead of labor, we have community now, which is diffused form of labor. | 因此,我们没有劳动,而是建立了社区, 社区是分散的劳动形式。 |
| 2298 | For example, Mark Zuckerberg has a billion people doing work for him by using | 例如,马克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)有十亿人通过使用 |
| 2299 | Facebook and instead of going to raise capital from someone who's rich, now we | Facebook 而不是向有钱人募集资金 现在我们 |
| 2300 | have crowdfunding. | 有人群资助。 |
| 2301 | So you can raise millions and millions of dollars for a charity, for a health | 所以,你可以筹集上百万美元 一个慈善,健康 |
| 2302 | problem, or for a business, you can do it all online. | 问题,或为生意, 你可以在网上做这一切。 |
| 2303 | So capital and labor are also becoming permissionless and you don't need to | 所以,资本和劳动力也变得 不允许,你不需要 |
| 2304 | necessarily do it the old fashioned way where you have to go around and ask | 一定要用老式的方法去问 |
| 2305 | people for permission to use their money or their time. | 人们需要钱或时间 |
| 2306 | One more question about leverage. | 还有一个关于杠杆的问题。 |
| 2307 | Do you think a choice of business model or a choice of product can also bring a | 你认为选择商业模式或选择产品也能带来 |
| 2308 | kind of leverage to it? | 那种杠杆呢? |
| 2309 | For example, pursuing a business that has network effects, pursuing a business | 例如,追求具有网络效应的企业,追求企业 |
| 2310 | that has brand effects or other choices of business model that people could | 具有品牌效应或人们可以选择的商业模式 |
| 2311 | manipulate that just give you free leverage? | 操纵那只是 给你的自由杠杆? |
| 2312 | Yeah, there's some really good micro economic concepts that are important to | 是啊,有一些非常好的微观经济概念 很重要 |
| 2313 | understand. | 明白吗? |
| 2314 | One of those is scale economies, which is the more you produce something, the | 其中之一是规模经济, 也就是你生产的东西越多, |
| 2315 | cheaper it gets to make it. | 做起来更便宜 |
| 2316 | That's something a lot of business cheaper gets to make with. | 这是很多商业 便宜得到做。 |
| 2317 | That's something we'd a lot of business cheaper gets to make with. | 我们的生意要便宜得多 |
该视频共有字幕 2317 条。解锁更多字幕为会员功能，请移动到 价格
P2 · 纳瓦尔：如何不靠运气致富？（完整版） p02 下 (P2)
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | old-fashioned way where you have to go around and ask people for permission to use their | 旧式的方式,你必须去的地方 并征求人们的许可 使用他们的 |
| 0:04 | money or their time. | 钱或时间。 |
| 0:06 | One more question about leverage. | 还有一个关于杠杆的问题。 |
| 0:08 | Do you think a choice of business model or a choice of product can also bring a kind | 你认为选择商业模式或选择产品也能带来一种 |
| 0:12 | of leverage to it? | 对它的影响? |
| 0:13 | For example, pursuing a business that has network effects, pursuing a business that | 例如,追求一个具有网络效应的企业,追求一个具有网络效应的企业. |
| 0:19 | has brand effects, or other choices of business model that people could manipulate that just | 或人们可以操纵的 商业模式的其他选择 |
| 0:25 | give you free leverage? | 给您自由的杠杆? |
| 0:27 | Yeah, there's some really good microeconomic concepts that are important to understand. | 是的,有一些非常好的微观经济概念 需要理解。 |
| 0:32 | One of those is scale economies, which is the more you produce something, the cheaper | 其中之一是规模经济,它越是生产的东西,就越便宜 |
展开字幕全文（2285 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | old-fashioned way where you have to go around and ask people for permission to use their | 旧式的方式,你必须去的地方 并征求人们的许可 使用他们的 |
| 2 | money or their time. | 钱或时间。 |
| 3 | One more question about leverage. | 还有一个关于杠杆的问题。 |
| 4 | Do you think a choice of business model or a choice of product can also bring a kind | 你认为选择商业模式或选择产品也能带来一种 |
| 5 | of leverage to it? | 对它的影响? |
| 6 | For example, pursuing a business that has network effects, pursuing a business that | 例如,追求一个具有网络效应的企业,追求一个具有网络效应的企业. |
| 7 | has brand effects, or other choices of business model that people could manipulate that just | 或人们可以操纵的 商业模式的其他选择 |
| 8 | give you free leverage? | 给您自由的杠杆? |
| 9 | Yeah, there's some really good microeconomic concepts that are important to understand. | 是的,有一些非常好的微观经济概念 需要理解。 |
| 10 | One of those is scale economies, which is the more you produce something, the cheaper | 其中之一是规模经济,它越是生产的东西,就越便宜 |
| 11 | it gets to make it. | 它会成功的 |
| 12 | That's something that a lot of businesses have, basic economics 101, and you should | 这是很多企业都有的, 基础经济学101,你应该 |
| 13 | try and get into a business where making widget number 12 is cheaper than making widget number | 尝试进入一个制造部件12比制造部件号码便宜的行业 |
| 14 | 5, and making widget number 10,000 is a lot cheaper than the previous ones, and this builds | 5,而制造10000元的部件 比之前的便宜很多, 而这个建筑 |
| 15 | up an automatic sort of barrier to entry against competition and getting commoditized. | 对进入竞争和商品化设置自动障碍 |
| 16 | So that's an important one. | 这很重要 |
| 17 | Another one, this is along the same lines, but technology products especially, and media | 另一条,这是同样的路线, 但技术产品,尤其是媒体 |
| 18 | products have this great quality where they have zero marginal cost of reproduction. | 产品质量如此之高 繁殖成本为零 |
| 19 | So creating another copy of what you just created is free. | 所以创造出另一个你刚刚创造的拷贝是免费的。 |
| 20 | So when somebody listens to this podcast or watches a YouTube video about this, it doesn't | 所以,当有人听这个播客 或观看一个YouTube视频 关于这一点,它不 |
| 21 | cost me anything for the next person who shows up. | 为了下一个出现的人 我付出了一切 |
| 22 | Those zero marginal cost things, they take a while to get going because you make very | 那些零边际成本的东西, 他们需要一段时间去 因为你做的非常 |
| 23 | little money per user, but over time, they can really, really add up. | 每个用户的钱很少,但随着时间的推移, 他们可以真的,真的加起来。 |
| 24 | So Joe Rogan is working no harder on his current podcast than he was on podcast number one, | 乔·罗根现在的播客工作比第一播客更努力 |
| 25 | but on podcast number 1100, he's making a million dollars for the podcast, whereas for | 但是在1100号播客上 他为播客赚了一百万 |
| 26 | the previous one, he probably lost money for the first one. | 上次他可能输了第一个 |
| 27 | That's an example of zero marginal cost. | 这是零边际成本的例子. |
| 28 | And then the most subtle but the most important is this idea of network effects, and it comes | 最微妙但最重要的就是这个网络效应的概念,它来了 |
| 29 | from computer networking. | 从计算机网络。 |
| 30 | Bob Metcalf, who created Ethernet, famously coined Metcalf's law, which is the value | 创建以太网的鲍勃·梅特卡夫(Bob Metcalf),著名的发明了梅特卡夫定律,这就是价值. |
| 31 | of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes in the network. | 一个网络与网络中节点数的平方成正比。 |
| 32 | So if a network of size 10 would have a value of 100, a network of a size 100 would have | 所以如果一个10号的网络的值是100,一个100号的网络的值是100。 |
| 33 | a value of 10,000. | 价值为10,000。 |
| 34 | It's not just 10x more, it's 100x more because it's a square, so the difference is a square. | 不仅10x多,100x多是因为是方形,所以区别是方形. |
| 35 | So you want to be in a network effects business, assuming you're not number two. | 所以你想参与网络效应业务, 假设你不是第二。 |
| 36 | If you're number one in network effect business, you win everything. | 如果你是网络效应行业的头号人物, 你赢得了一切。 |
| 37 | So example, if you look at Facebook, your friends and family's social networking protocol, | 举个例子,如果你看看脸书, 你的朋友和家人的社交网络协议, |
| 38 | who's their competitor? | 他们的竞争者是谁? |
| 39 | Nobody, because they won everything through network effects, which is why when people | 没有人,因为他们通过网络效应赢得了一切 这就是为什么当人们 |
| 40 | say, well, I can just switch away from Facebook, they don't realize that network effects create | 说,好了,我可以只是切换 从Facebook, 他们不知道网络效应创造 |
| 41 | natural monopolies. | 自然垄断。 |
| 42 | They're very, very powerful things. | 它们是非常非常强大的东西。 |
| 43 | And one of the dirty secrets of Silicon Valley is that a lot of the winning businesses are | 硅谷的一个肮脏秘密是 很多赢家都是 |
| 44 | natural monopolies. | 自然垄断。 |
| 45 | Even ride sharing tends towards one winner take all system, like Uber will always have | 即使是骑马共享 也倾向于一个赢家拿走所有系统 就像Uber永远拥有 |
| 46 | better economics than Lyft, as long as it's moving more drivers and more riders around. | 比Lyft更经济, 只要它移动更多的司机和骑手周围。 |
| 47 | Something like Google, there's only one viable search engine. | 比如谷歌,只有一个可行的搜索引擎。 |
| 48 | I do like DuckDuckGo, you know, privacy reasons, but they're just always going to be behind | 我喜欢DuckDuck Go,你知道的,隐私的原因, 但他们总是会落后 |
| 49 | because of network effects. | 因为网络效应。 |
| 50 | Twitter, right? | 推特 对吧? |
| 51 | Where else would you go for microblogging? | 微博还能去哪? |
| 52 | Even YouTube has weak network effects, but they're still powerful enough. | 连YouTube都有微弱的网络效果,但它们仍然足够强大. |
| 53 | There's really no number two site that you go to to consume your video on a regular basis. | 其实没有二号站台可以定期消耗你的视频. |
| 54 | It even turns out in e-tail Amazon Prime and convenience stored credit cards and information | 连电子尾巴亚马逊Prime和方便 都存有信用卡和信息 |
| 55 | creates a powerful network effect. | 创造强大的网络效应。 |
| 56 | So what is a network effect? | 那么网络效应是什么? |
| 57 | Let's just define it precisely. | 让我们精确地定义它。 |
| 58 | A network effect is when each additional user adds value to the existing user base. | 网络效应是指每个新增用户增加现有用户基础的价值. |
| 59 | So your users themselves are creating some value for the existing users. | 所以,你的用户本身正在为现有的用户创造一些值. |
| 60 | The classic example that I think everybody can understand is language. | 我认为每个人都能理解的经典例子就是语言。 |
| 61 | Let's say that there's 100 people live in the community and speak 10 different languages | 不如说社区里有一百个人 讲十种不同的语言 |
| 62 | and each person just speaks one of those 10. | 每个人只说其中之一10。 |
| 63 | Well, you're having to translate all the time. | 你总是要翻译 |
| 64 | It's incredibly painful. | 这是令人难以置信的痛苦。 |
| 65 | But if all 100 of you spoke the same language, it would add tremendous value. | 但是,如果你们所有100人都说同样的语言,那会增加巨大的价值. |
| 66 | And so the way that community will play out is 10 people start out speaking 10 languages. | 因此,社区将发挥出 10 人开始讲10种语言。 |
| 67 | So let's say that one extra person learns English. | 因此,让我们假设一个额外的人学习英语。 |
| 68 | Well, now all of a sudden, 11 people know English. | 突然,11个人懂英语 |
| 69 | So the next person comes in to learn a new language, probably going to choose English. | 因此,下一个人进来学习一种新语言,可能要选择英语. |
| 70 | At some point, let's say English gets to 20 or 25 people, it's done. | 在某些时候,让我们假设英语得到20或25人,就完成了. |
| 71 | It's just going to own the entire language marketplace and the rest of the languages | 它会拥有整个语言市场 以及其他语言 |
| 72 | will get competed out, which is why long term, the entire world is probably going to end | 将获得竞争, 这就是为什么长期, 整个世界可能会结束 |
| 73 | speaking English and Chinese. | 说英语和中文。 |
| 74 | China is closed off on the Internet, but the Internet itself is a great leveler. | 中国在互联网上被关闭,但互联网本身却是一个巨大的平面. |
| 75 | And people who want to communicate on the Internet are forced to speak English because | 而想在互联网上交流的人被迫说英语,因为 |
| 76 | the largest community of people on the Internet speaks English. | 互联网上最大的人群会说英语。 |
| 77 | I always feel bad for my colleagues who grew up speaking foreign languages in foreign countries | 我总是为那些在外国说外语长大的同事们感到难过 |
| 78 | because you don't have access to so many books. | 因为你没有那么多的书 |
| 79 | So many books just haven't been translated into other languages. | 所以很多书还没有翻译成其他语言。 |
| 80 | So if you only spoke French or you only spoke German or you only spoke Hindi, for example, | 所以,如果你只说法语 或者你只说德语 或者你只说印地语,例如, |
| 81 | you would be at a severe disadvantage in a technical education. | 在技术教育方面,您将处于非常不利的地位。 |
| 82 | Invariably, if you go and get a technical education, you have to learn English just | 总是,如果你去接受技术教育, 你必须学习英语 |
| 83 | because you have to read these books that have this data that has not been translated. | 因为你必须读这些书 这些数据还没有翻译。 |
| 84 | So languages are probably the oldest example of network effect. | 所以语言可能是网络效应最古老的例子. |
| 85 | Money is another example. | 钱是另一个例子。 |
| 86 | We should all probably be using the same money, except for the fact that geographic | 我们也许都该用同样的钱 除了地理上 |
| 87 | and regulatory boundaries have created these artificial islands of money. | 和监管边界 创造了这些人工的金钱岛屿。 |
| 88 | But even then, the world tends to use a single currency as the reserve currency | 但即使这样 世界也倾向于使用单一货币作为储备货币 |
| 89 | at most times, currently the US dollar. | 在多数情况下,目前为美元。 |
| 90 | So network effects are a very powerful concept. | 所以网络效应是一个非常强大的概念. |
| 91 | When you're picking a business model, it's really good idea to pick a model where you | 当你选择一个商业模型, 这是非常好的主意 选择一个模型在那里你 |
| 92 | can benefit from network effects, low marginal costs and scale economies. | 可受益于网络效应、低边际成本和规模经济。 |
| 93 | And these tend to go together like anything that has zero marginal cost of production | 这些都像生产零边际成本的东西一样 |
| 94 | obviously has scale economies. | 显然有规模经济。 |
| 95 | And things that have zero marginal cost of reproductions very often tend to have network | 复制成本为零的东西 往往有网络 |
| 96 | effects because it doesn't cost you anything more to stamp out the thing. | 效果是因为它并不花费你 更多的东西来消灭它。 |
| 97 | So then you can just create little hooks for users to add value to each other. | 这样你就可以仅仅为用户创造小钩子来增加彼此的价值. |
| 98 | So you should always be thinking about how your users, your customers can add value to | 所以,你应该总是在想 你的用户,你的客户 如何增加价值 |
| 99 | each other, because that is the ultimate form of leverage. | 相互之间,因为这是杠杆的最终形式。 |
| 100 | You're on the beach in the Bahamas or you're sleeping at night and your customers are adding | 你在巴哈马的海滩上 或者晚上睡觉 你的顾客在加 |
| 101 | value to each other. | 对彼此的价值。 |
| 102 | The tweet storm is very abstract. | 推特风暴非常抽象. |
| 103 | It's deliberately meant to be broadly applicable to all kinds of different domains and disciplines | 它有意广泛适用于各种不同的领域和学科 |
| 104 | and time periods and places. | 以及时间和地点。 |
| 105 | But sometimes it's hard to work without concrete example. | 但有时没有具体的例子很难工作. |
| 106 | So let's go concrete for a minute. | 所以,让我们去 混凝土一分钟。 |
| 107 | Look at the real estate business. | 央视房地产业务. |
| 108 | You could start at the bottom. | 你可以从底部开始 |
| 109 | Let's say you're a day laborer. | 假设你是一个日工。 |
| 110 | You come in, you fix people's houses. | 你进来,你修复人们的房子。 |
| 111 | Someone orders you around, tells you break that piece of rock, sand that piece of wood, | 有人命令你 告诉你打破那块石头 沙子那块木头 |
| 112 | put that thing over there. | 把那东西放那边 |
| 113 | There's all these menial jobs that go on the construction site. | 建筑工地上都有这些普通工作 |
| 114 | If you're working one of those jobs, unless you're a skilled trade, like say a carpenter | 如果你在做其中一项工作 除非你是个熟练的行业 比如说木匠 |
| 115 | or electrician, you don't really have specific knowledge. | 或电工, 你不是真的有特定的知识。 |
| 116 | And even carpenter or electrician is not that specific because other people can be trained | 连木匠或电工都不这么具体 因为其他人可以接受训练 |
| 117 | how to do it. | 如何办. |
| 118 | So you can be replaced. | 这样你就可以被替换了。 |
| 119 | So you get paid your $15, $20, $25, $50. | 所以你得到15美元,20美元,25美元,50美元。 |
| 120 | If you're really lucky, $75 an hour, but that's about it. | 如果你真的走运的话,每小时75美元,不过就这个了. |
| 121 | You don't have any leverage other than from the tools that you're using. | 除了你使用的工具之外,你没有任何杠杆。 |
| 122 | So if you're driving a bulldozer, that's better than doing it with your hands. | 所以如果你开的是推土机, 那比用手来做要好。 |
| 123 | So day labor in India makes a lot less because they have no tool leverage. | 因此,印度的日产产量要少得多,因为他们没有工具杠杆。 |
| 124 | You don't have much accountability. | 你没有太多的责任。 |
| 125 | You're a faceless cog in the construction crew and the owner of the house or the buyer | 你是建筑工人和房主或买家的无脸眼镜 |
| 126 | of the house doesn't know or care that you worked on it. | 房子不知道 也不关心你的工作。 |
| 127 | One step up from that, you might have a contractor, like a general contractor, who someone hires | 再往前一步,你可能会有一个承包商, 像一个普通承包商,谁雇用谁 |
| 128 | to come and fix and repair and build up their house. | 来修补他们的房子 |
| 129 | That general contractor is taking accountability, they're taking responsibility. | 那个总承包商负责,他们负责 |
| 130 | So now, let's say they got paid $250,000 for the job. | 所以,现在,让我们假设 他们得到了25万美元的工作。 |
| 131 | Sorry, I'm using barrier prices, so maybe I'll go rest the world price, $100,000 for | 对不起,我用屏障价格,所以 也许我会去休息 世界价格,10万美元 |
| 132 | the job to fix up a house. | 修复房子的工作。 |
| 133 | And it actually costs the general contractor all said and done $70,000. | 这实际上花费了总承包商全部 说并做了7万美元。 |
| 134 | Well, that contractor is going to pocket that remaining 30. | 那个承包商会把剩下的30块藏起来 |
| 135 | So they got the upside. | 因此,他们得到的优势。 |
| 136 | They got the equity, but they're also taking accountability and risk. | 他们有股权,但他们也承担着责任和风险. |
| 137 | So if the project runs over and there's losses, then they eat the losses. | 所以,如果项目运行过后出现损失,那么他们就会吃掉损失. |
| 138 | But you see just the accountability gives them some form of additional potential income. | 但是,你看到的只是 问责制给他们 某种形式的额外的潜在收入。 |
| 139 | And then they also have labor leverage because they have a bunch of people working for them. | 他们也有劳动杠杆,因为他们有一群人为他们工作。 |
| 140 | But it probably tops out right there. | 但它可能顶端就在那里。 |
| 141 | You can go one level above that and you can look at a property developer. | 你可以跳到一个级别以上,你可以看一个地产开发商。 |
| 142 | This might be someone who is a contractor who did a bunch of houses, did a really good | 这可能是一个承包商 谁做了一堆房子,做了一个真正的好 |
| 143 | job, then decided to go into business for themselves and they go around looking for | 然后决定自己去做生意 他们四处寻找 |
| 144 | beaten down properties that have potential. | 摧毁那些有潜力的房产 |
| 145 | They buy them. | 他们买的 |
| 146 | They either raise money from investors, they're fronted themselves, they fix the place up, | 他们要么向投资者募集资金, 要么面对自己, |
| 147 | and then they sell it for twice what they bought it for. | 然后他们卖掉它两倍 他们买它。 |
| 148 | Maybe they only put in 20% more, so it's a healthy profit. | 也许他们只加20%,所以这是一个健康的利润. |
| 149 | So now a developer like that takes on more accountability, has more risk, they have more | 所以现在这样的开发者要承担更多的责任, 承担更多的风险, 他们拥有更多的 |
| 150 | specific knowledge because now you have to know which neighborhoods are worth buying | 具体的知识,因为现在你必须知道 哪些街区值得购买 |
| 151 | in, which lots are actually good and which lots are bad. | 哪些是好的 哪些是坏的 |
| 152 | What makes or breaks a specific property, you have to imagine the finished house that's | 是什么使 或打破一个特定的财产, 你必须想象 完成的房子是 |
| 153 | going to be there even when the property itself might look really bad right now. | 即使地产本身现在看起来很糟糕 也会在那里 |
| 154 | So there's more specific knowledge. | 故有更具体知识. |
| 155 | There's more accountability and risk. | 责任追究和风险增加. |
| 156 | And now you also have capital leverage because you're also putting money into the project. | 而现在你也有资本杠杆, 因为你也把资金投入项目。 |
| 157 | But conceivably, you could buy a piece of land or a broken down house for $200,000 and | 但可以想象 你可以以20万美金买块土地或破房子 |
| 158 | turn it into a million dollar mansion and pocket all the difference. | 把它变成一百万的豪宅 并吞下所有的区别。 |
| 159 | One level beyond that might be a famous architect or a developer where just having your name | 更远的一层可能是一个著名的建筑师 或一个开发商,只要有你的名字 |
| 160 | on a property because you've done so many great properties increases its value. | 因为你做了这么多伟大的财产 增加了它的价值 |
| 161 | One level up from that, you might be a person who decides, well, I understand real estate | 从这个高度上看,你可能是一个决定,嗯,我理解房地产 |
| 162 | and I now know enough of the dynamics of real estate that rather than just build and flip | 我现在对房地产的动态了解得够多了 不只是建造和翻翻 |
| 163 | my own properties or improve my own properties, I'm going to be a massive developer. | 无论是我自己的属性还是改进我自己的属性,我都会成为一个大规模的开发者. |
| 164 | I'm going to build entire communities. | 我要建立整个社区 |
| 165 | Another person might say, I like that leverage, but I don't want to manage all these people. | 其他人可能会说,我喜欢这种杠杆, 但我不想管理所有这些人。 |
| 166 | I want to do it more through capital. | 我想通过资本做更多的事情 |
| 167 | So I'm going to start a real estate investment trust. | 所以我要启动房地产投资信托. |
| 168 | And that requires specific knowledge, not just about investing in real estate and building | 这需要具体的知识 不只是投资房地产和建筑 |
| 169 | real estate, but also requires specific knowledge about the financial markets, the capital markets | 房地产,但也要求掌握关于金融市场、资本市场的具体知识 |
| 170 | and how real estate trusts operate. | 以及房地产信托如何运作。 |
| 171 | One level beyond that might be somebody who says, actually, I want to bring the maximum | 超过这个水平的人可能说,实际上,我想带来最大的 |
| 172 | leverage to bear in this market and the maximum specific knowledge. | 在这个市场发挥杠杆作用,并获得最大程度的具体知识。 |
| 173 | And so that person would say, well, I understand real estate and I understand everything from | 所以那个人会说,嗯,我理解房地产,我理解一切 |
| 174 | basic housing construction to building properties and selling them to how real estate markets | 建造基本住房,建造房产,并将其出售给房地产市场; |
| 175 | move and thrive. | 移动和繁荣。 |
| 176 | And I also understand the technology business. | 我也了解科技行业。 |
| 177 | So I understand how to recruit developers, how to write code and how to build good product. | 所以我知道如何招聘开发者, 如何写代码和如何制造好产品。 |
| 178 | And I understand how to raise money from venture capitalists and how to return it and how all | 我理解如何从风险投资家那里筹集资金 如何回报,如何所有 |
| 179 | of that works. | 说到做到 |
| 180 | And obviously not a single person may know this. | 显然没有人知道这一点。 |
| 181 | You may pull a team together to do it where each have different skill sets. | 你可以召集一个团队 来完成它 在每一个有不同的技能组合。 |
| 182 | But that combined entity would have specific knowledge in technology and in real estate. | 但是,这个合并的实体在技术和房地产方面有具体的知识。 |
| 183 | It would have massive accountability because that company's name would be a very high risk, | 会有巨大的责任 因为那个公司的名字会是一个非常高的风险, |
| 184 | high reward effort attached to the whole thing. | 整件事都付出了很高的回报 |
| 185 | And people would devote their lives to it, take on significant risk. | 人们会为此付出生命 承担重大风险 |
| 186 | And then it would have leverage in code with lots of developers. | 然后它就会在代码中与许多开发者有杠杆作用. |
| 187 | It would have capital with investors putting money in and the founders own capital. | 它拥有资本,投资者投入资金,创始人拥有资本。 |
| 188 | And it would have labor of some of the highest quality labor that you can find, which is | 它将拥有一些你能找到的 最高品质的劳动,这就是 |
| 189 | high quality engineers and designers and marketers who are working on the company. | 从事公司工作的高品质工程师、设计师和营销员。 |
| 190 | And then you may end up with a Trulia or a Redfin or a Zillow kind of company. | 然后,你可能会有一个特鲁利亚 或者一个雷德芬 或者一个Zillow类型的公司。 |
| 191 | And then the upside could potentially be in the billions of dollars or the hundreds of | 然后,成功的可能在于 数十亿美元或数百美元 |
| 192 | billions of dollars. | 数十亿. |
| 193 | So as you layer in more and more kinds of knowledge that can only be gained on the job | 所以当你积累越来越多的知识 只能靠工作获得 |
| 194 | and aren't common knowledge and you layer in more and more accountability and risk taking | 并且不是普通知识 而你在越来越多的责任和风险中 |
| 195 | and you layer in more and more great people working on it and more and more capital on | 并且你把越来越多的伟大的人 工作在其中 和越来越多的资本 |
| 196 | it and more and more code and media on it, you keep expanding the scope of the opportunity | 它和越来越多的代码 和媒体在上面, 你不断扩大 机会的范围 |
| 197 | all the way from the day laborer who might just literally be scrapping on the ground | 从白天开始,工人们 可能只是从地上刮下来 |
| 198 | with their hands all the way up to somebody who started a real estate tech company and | 他们的手一直到某人 谁创办了房地产技术公司和 |
| 199 | took it public. | 把它公开。 |
| 200 | We spoke about specific knowledge. | 我们谈到了具体的知识。 |
| 201 | We talked about accountability. | 我们谈到了问责制。 |
| 202 | We talked about leverage. | 我们谈论了杠杆。 |
| 203 | The last skill that Naval talks about in his tweet storm is judgment, where he says that | 海军在他的微博风暴中谈到的最后一个技巧是判断,他说 |
| 204 | leverage is a force multiplier for your judgment. | 杠杆可以增强你的判断力 |
| 205 | We are now living in an age of nearly infinite leverage and all the great fortunes are created | 我们现在生活在一个 几乎无限的杠杆时代 所有伟大的财富都是创造的 |
| 206 | through leverage. | 通过杠杆。 |
| 207 | So your first job is to go and obtain leverage and you can obtain leverage through permission | 所以,你的第一个工作是去获得杠杆 通过许可,你可以得到杠杆 |
| 208 | by taking risks and getting people to work for you or by raising capital or you can get | 通过冒险和让人们为你工作 或者通过筹集资本或者你可以得到 |
| 209 | leverage permissionlessly by learning how to code or becoming good communicator and | 通过学习如何编码或成为好通讯员和 |
| 210 | podcasting, broadcasting, creating videos, writing, etc. | 播客,广播,制作视频,写作等. |
| 211 | So that's how you get leverage. | 所以这就是你如何得到杠杆。 |
| 212 | But once you have leverage, what do you do with it? | 但一旦你有筹码,你怎么办? |
| 213 | Well, the first part of your career is spent hustling to get leverage. | 好吧,你职业生涯的第一部分 花了很多时间来获得影响力。 |
| 214 | Once you have the leverage, then you want to slow down a bit because your judgment really | 一旦你有了筹码,你就想减慢一点 因为你的判断真的 |
| 215 | matters. | 问题。 |
| 216 | It's like you've gone from steering your sailboat around to now you're steering an ocean liner | 就像你从驾着帆船转到现在 你开着一艘远洋班轮 |
| 217 | or a tanker. | 或者油轮 |
| 218 | You have a lot more at risk, but you have a lot more to gain as well. | 你的风险更大,但你也有 更多的好处。 |
| 219 | You're carrying a much higher payload. | 你携带的载荷要高得多 |
| 220 | So in an age of infinite leverage, judgment becomes the most important skill. | 因此在无限杠杆时代,判断成为最重要的技能. |
| 221 | Warren Buffett is so wealthy now because of his judgment. | 由于他的判断,沃伦·巴菲特现在非常富有. |
| 222 | Even if you were to take away all of Warren's money, tomorrow, investors would come out | 即使你拿走沃伦的所有钱 明天投资人就会出来 |
| 223 | of the woodwork and hand him $100 billion because they know his judgment is so good | 给他一千亿 因为他们知道他的判断是那么好 |
| 224 | and they would give him a big chunk of that $100 billion to invest. | 他们会给他一大笔1000亿美元投资 |
| 225 | So ultimately, everything else that you do is actually setting you up to apply your judgment. | 最终,你所做的一切 都是为了运用你的判断。 |
| 226 | One of the big things that people rail on a CEO pay, and for sure, there's crony capitalism | 人们用首席执行官的薪水来支付一笔大钱 肯定有专制资本主义 |
| 227 | that goes on where these CEOs control their boards and the boards give them too much money. | 这些首席执行官控制着他们的董事会 董事会给了他们太多钱 |
| 228 | But there are certain CEOs who definitely earn their keep because their judgment is | 但有些CEO肯定能挣到钱 因为他们的判断是 |
| 229 | better. | 好多了,你还好吧? |
| 230 | If you're steering a big ship, if you're steering Google or Apple, and your judgment | 如果你在驾驶一艘大船 如果你在驾驶Google或苹果 以及你的判断 |
| 231 | is 10 or 20% better than the next person's, society will literally pay you hundreds of | 比下一个人好10%或20% 社会会付你几百块 |
| 232 | billions of dollars more because you're steering a $100 billion ship. | 还要多数十亿美元 因为你正在驾驶一艘1000亿美元的船只 |
| 233 | If you're on course 10 or 20% of the time more often than the other person, the compounding | 如果你在课程 10%或20%的时间 比其他人更频繁, 复合 |
| 234 | results on that hundreds of billions of dollars you're managing will be so large that your | 你所经手的数千亿美元 将会变得如此之大 |
| 235 | CEO pay will be dwarfed in comparison. | 首席执行官的薪水将相形见绌。 |
| 236 | So demonstrated judgment, credibility around the judgment is so critical. | 所显示的判断, 围绕判断的可信度是如此关键。 |
| 237 | Warren Buffett wins here because he has massive credibility. | 沃伦·巴菲特在这里获胜,因为他具有巨大的可信度. |
| 238 | He's been highly accountable. | 他一直高度负责。 |
| 239 | He's been right over and over in the public domain. | 他一直在公有领域反复 |
| 240 | He's built a reputation for very high integrity so you can trust him. | 他为高度正直创造了名声 让你相信他 |
| 241 | So a person like that, people will throw infinite leverage behind him because of his judgment. | 所以这样的人,人们会因为他的判断而将无限的筹码投在他身后. |
| 242 | Nobody asks him how hard he works. | 没人问他有多努力 |
| 243 | Nobody asks him when he wakes up or when he goes to sleep. | 没人问他什么时候醒来 什么时候睡觉 |
| 244 | They're like, Warren, just do your thing. | 他们就像,沃伦,做你的事。 |
| 245 | So especially demonstrated judgment with high accountability, clear track record is critical. | 因此,特别是具有高度问责制的判断力,明确的记录至关重要。 |
| 246 | Let's define judgment. | 让我们定义判断。 |
| 247 | I would define it as knowing the long-term effects of your decisions or being able to | 我会把它定义为 知道你的决定的长期影响 或者能够 |
| 248 | predict the long-term effects of your decisions. | 预测你的决定的长期影响。 |
| 249 | It's funny. | 这很有趣。 |
| 250 | My definition of wisdom is knowing the long-term consequences of your actions. | 我对智慧的定义是知道你的行动的长期后果. |
| 251 | So they're not all that different. | 所以,他们不是所有不同的。 |
| 252 | Wisdom is just judgment on a personal domain. | 智慧只是对个人领域的判断. |
| 253 | Wisdom applied to external problems I think is judgment. | 智慧适用于外部问题 我认为是判断。 |
| 254 | So they're highly linked. | 所以它们高度相连。 |
| 255 | But yes, it's knowing the long-term consequences of your actions and then making kind of the | 但是,是的,它知道 你的行动的长期后果 然后做那种 |
| 256 | right decision to capitalize on that. | 正确的决定 利用这一点。 |
| 257 | Judgment is very hard to build up. | 判决很难建立起来。 |
| 258 | This is where both intellect and experience come in play. | 智慧和经验都在这里发挥作用。 |
| 259 | There are many problems with the so-called intellectuals in the ivory tower, but one | 象牙塔里 所谓的知识分子有很多问题 但有一个 |
| 260 | of the reasons why Nassim Taleb rails against them is because they have no skin in the game. | 纳西姆·塔莱布对他们不利的原因 在于他们在比赛中没有皮肤 |
| 261 | They have no real-world experience, right? | 他们没有真实的经验,对不对? |
| 262 | So they just apply purely intellect. | 所以他们只是运用纯粹的智慧。 |
| 263 | And intellect without any experience is often worse than useless because you get the confidence | 没有经验的智慧往往比无用更糟糕 因为你得到自信 |
| 264 | that the intellect gives you and you get some of the credibility. | 智慧给你,你得到一些可信度。 |
| 265 | But because you had no skin in the game and you had no real experience and no real accountability, | 但是,因为你没有皮肤 在游戏中,你没有真正的经验 和真正的问责, |
| 266 | you're just throwing darts. | 你只是扔飞镖。 |
| 267 | The real world is always far, far more complex than we can intellectualize. | 现实世界总是很遥远, 远比我们智能化还要复杂。 |
| 268 | And especially all the interesting fast-moving edge domains and problems, | 特别是所有有趣的快速移动的边缘域和问题, |
| 269 | you can't get there without experience. | 没有经验你无法到达那里 |
| 270 | So if you are smart and you iterate fast, it's not even you put 10,000 hours into something, | 所以,如果你很聪明,而且速度很快, 它甚至没有你把一万小时的东西, |
| 271 | but you take 10,000 tries at something. | 但你要花一万去尝试一些东西。 |
| 272 | If you are smart and you have a lot of quick iterations and you try to keep your emotions | 如果你聪明,你有很多快速的迭代 你试图保持你的情绪 |
| 273 | out of it, the people with the best judgment are actually among the least emotional. | 从中,最有判断力的人 实际上是情绪最低的。 |
| 274 | A lot of the best investors are considered almost robotic in that regard, but I wouldn't | 许多最好的投资者 被认为是几乎机器人在这方面, 但我不会 |
| 275 | be surprised if even the best entrepreneurs often come across as unemotional. | 如果即使是最优秀的企业家 也常常会觉得情绪不稳,那会很惊讶 |
| 276 | There is this archetype of the passionate entrepreneur, and yeah, they have to care | 有这种典型的热情企业家, 他们必须关心 |
| 277 | about what they're doing, but they also have to see very clearly what's actually happening. | 但是他们也必须非常清楚 到底发生了什么 |
| 278 | And the thing that prevents you from seeing what's actually happening are your emotions. | 阻止你看到实际发生的事情的是你的情绪。 |
| 279 | Our emotions are constantly clouding our judgment. | 我们的情绪不断影响我们的判断。 |
| 280 | And investing or in running companies or in building products or being an entrepreneur, | 投资或经营公司 或建筑产品 或作为一个企业家, |
| 281 | emotions really get in the way. | 情绪真的妨碍。 |
| 282 | Emotions are what prevent you from seeing what's actually happening until you can no | 情感是阻止你看到 现实发生,直到你无法 |
| 283 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}直到它变得太突然 然后你就成了 | |
| 284 | forced into suffering, which is a breaking of this emotional fantasy that you had put together. | 被迫受苦,这是破解 这种情感幻想,你已经汇集在一起。 |
| 285 | To try and connect some of these concepts, I would say that first you're accountable | 为了尝试把其中一些概念联系起来,我想说,首先你有责任 |
| 286 | for your judgment. | 为了你的判断 |
| 287 | Judgment is the exercise of wisdom. | 判决是行使智慧。 |
| 288 | Wisdom comes from experience, and that experience can be accelerated through short iterations. | 智慧来自经验,这种经验可以通过短时间迭代来加速. |
| 289 | And the reason why a lot of the top investors, a lot of the value investors, if you read | 还有为什么很多顶级投资者 很多价值投资者 如果你读到 |
| 290 | Jeremy Grantham 或者你读过Warren Buffett 你读过Michael Burry 这些人 | |
| 291 | sound like philosophers, or they are philosophers, or they're reading a lot of history books or | 听起来像哲学家,或他们是哲学家, 或他们阅读了很多历史书籍或 |
| 292 | science books. | 科学书籍. |
| 293 | What are they doing? | 他们在干什么? |
| 294 | Shouldn't they be reading investment books? | 他们不该看投资书吗? |
| 295 | No. | 没有 |
| 296 | Investment books are the worst place to learn about investment because investment | 投资书是最难了解投资的地方 因为投资 |
| 297 | is a real world activity that is highly multivariate. | 是一种真实的世界活动,具有高度的多变性。 |
| 298 | All the advantages are always being competed | 所有优势总是在竞争 |
| 299 | away. | 离开。 |
| 300 | It's always on the cutting edge. | 常在尖端处. |
| 301 | So what you actually just need is very, very broad | 所以,你实际上只是需要 非常,非常广泛 |
| 302 | based judgment and thinking. | 基于判断和思考。 |
| 303 | And the best way to do that is to study everything, including | 最好的办法是研究一切,包括 |
| 304 | a lot of philosophy. | 很多哲学 |
| 305 | And philosophy also makes you more stoic, makes you less emotional. | 哲学也让你更沉闷, 让你更情绪化。 |
| 306 | And so you make better decisions. | 所以你做出更好的决定 |
| 307 | You have better judgment. | 你有更好的判断力。 |
| 308 | One simple thing is I see I go out on Twitter and it seems like half of Twitter is outraged | 一个简单的事情是,我看到 我出去在推特上, 它似乎一半的推特是愤怒的。 |
| 309 | at something at all times. | 在任何时刻。 |
| 310 | You can go within someone's Twitter feed and get at least some | 你可以进入别人的推特 并至少得到一些 |
| 311 | semblance of what it must be like to be in their head all the time. | 他们脑子里总是有这种感觉 |
| 312 | And the more outraged somebody | 一个人越生气 |
| 313 | is, I guarantee you, the worse their judgment is. | 我向你保证 他们的判断越差 |
| 314 | If someone's constantly tweeting political outrage | 如果有人不断在推特上发表政治愤慨 |
| 315 | and seems like an angry person getting into fights, you don't want to hand this person | 和似乎一个愤怒的人 进入战斗, 你不想交出这个人 |
| 316 | the keys to your car, let alone the keys to your company. | 你的车钥匙 更别说你的公司钥匙了 |
| 317 | So we covered the skills that you need to get rich. | 因此,我们涵盖了你需要的 获得财富的技能。 |
| 318 | That was specific knowledge, | 这是具体的知识, |
| 319 | accountability, leverage, judgment, and lifelong learning. | 问责制、影响力、判断力和终生学习。 |
| 320 | Let's talk a little bit about | 我们谈谈 |
| 321 | the importance of working hard and valuing your time. | 努力工作并珍惜时间的重要性。 |
| 322 | So no one is going to value you more than you value yourself. | 所以没人比你更重视你 |
| 323 | So you just have to set a very | 所以你只需要设置一个非常 |
| 324 | personal hourly rate and you have to stick to it. | 个人小时工资,你必须坚持。 |
| 325 | So even since when I was young, | 所以即使我年轻的时候 |
| 326 | I just decided that I was worth a lot more than the market thought I was worth, | 我刚刚决定,我的价值 比市场认为我的价值, |
| 327 | but I started treating myself that way. | 但我开始这样对待自己 |
| 328 | So always factor your time into every decision. | 所以每次决定都要考虑你的时间 |
| 329 | How much time does it take? | 需要多少时间? |
| 330 | Oh, it's going to take me an hour to get across town to get this thing. | 哦,这需要我一个小时 穿过镇子得到这个东西。 |
| 331 | Well, I value myself at $100 an hour. | 我值每小时100美元 |
| 332 | That's throwing $100 out of my pocket. | 那是从我口袋里扔出100美元。 |
| 333 | Am I going to | 我会去 |
| 334 | do that? | 这样做? |
| 335 | You buy something from Amazon, they screwed it up. | 你从亚马逊买东西 他们搞砸了 |
| 336 | You have to return it. | 得还. |
| 337 | Is it | 是吗? |
| 338 | your time to return it? | 你该回去了吗? |
| 339 | Is it worth the mental hassle? | 值得精神上的烦恼吗? |
| 340 | Keep in mind that you have less work hours, | 记住你工作时间少 |
| 341 | you have less mentally high output hours. | 您的输出时数较少。 |
| 342 | Do you want to use them to run errands and solve | 你想用它们来跑腿和解决吗? |
| 343 | little problems or do you want to save them for the big stuff? | 问题小,还是你想把它们保存起来? |
| 344 | All the great scientists were | 所有伟大的科学家 |
| 345 | terrible at managing their household life. | 很难管理他们的家庭生活。 |
| 346 | None of them had a clean organized room or, you know, | 他们没有一个干净有条理的房间 或者,你知道, |
| 347 | made all their social events on time or sent their thank you cards. | 他们的社交活动都按时进行 或者寄出感谢卡 |
| 348 | You can spend your life | 你可以过一辈子 |
| 349 | however you want, but if you want to get rich, it has to be your number one overwhelming desire, | 不管你想怎样,但如果你想发财, 它必须是你的首要欲望, |
| 350 | which means that it has to come before anything else, which means you can't be penny pinching. | 这意味着它必须先于其他东西, 这意味着你不能被一分钱捏。 |
| 351 | This is what people don't understand. | 这是人们不明白的。 |
| 352 | You can penny pinch your way to a basic sustenance. | 你可以吃点吃的 |
| 353 | You | 你们 |
| 354 | can keep your expenses low, maybe retire early and not spend too much. | 可以保持低开支, 也许提前退休, 并且不会花费太多。 |
| 355 | And that's perfectly | 这是完美的 |
| 356 | valid. | 无效。 |
| 357 | But we're here to talk about wealth creation. | 但我们是来谈财富创造的 |
| 358 | And if you're going to do that, | 如果你要这样做, |
| 359 | then that has to be your number one overwhelming priority. | 那一定是你的首要任务 |
| 360 | So fast forward to your wealthy self | 这么快的走向你富有的自我 |
| 361 | and pick some intermediate hourly rate. | 并选择一些中间小时费率。 |
| 362 | For me, believe it or not, back when you could have hired | 对我来说,信不信由你,当你可以雇佣 |
| 363 | me, which now obviously you can't, but back when you could have hired me, and this was true a decade | 我,现在你显然不能, 但回来的时候,你本可以雇用我, 这是真实的十年 |
| 364 | ago or even two decades ago before I had any real money, my hourly rate, I used to say to myself | 20年前,甚至20年前,我还有真正的钱,我的小时工资,我常对自己说 |
| 365 | over and over is $5,000 an hour. | 超过每小时5000美元 |
| 366 | Today, when I look back, really it was about a thousand dollars an | 今天,当我回头看, 真的是大约一千美元一个 |
| 367 | hour. | 一小时 |
| 368 | And of course I still ended up doing stupid things like arguing with the electrician or | 当然,我还是做傻事,比如跟电工争吵 |
| 369 | returning the broken speaker, but I shouldn't have. | 把那断掉的扬声器还给我 但我不该这么做的 |
| 370 | And I did a lot less than any of my friends would. | 我比我的朋友都少得多 |
| 371 | And I would make a theatrical show out of throwing something in the trash pile or giving it to | 我会做一个戏剧表演 扔的东西在垃圾堆 或者把它给 |
| 372 | an army rather than trying to return it or handing something to people rather than trying to fix it. | 而不是试图把它还给别人 而不是试图修复它。 |
| 373 | I would argue with my girlfriends and even today to my wife, like I don't do that. | 我会跟我的女朋友们争论,甚至今天 和我太太争论,就像我不这样做。 |
| 374 | That's not a | 这不是一个 |
| 375 | problem that I solve. | 问题,我解决。 |
| 376 | I still argue that with my mother when she hands me like little to do's, | 我仍然在和我的母亲争论 当她把我像少做一样, |
| 377 | I just don't do that. | 我只是不这样做。 |
| 378 | I would rather hire you an assistant. | 我宁愿雇个助手给你 |
| 379 | And this was true even when I didn't | 即便我没有 |
| 380 | have money. | 有钱 |
| 381 | Another way of thinking about something is that if you can outsource something or not do | 另一种思考方式是 如果你可以外包某件事或不做 |
| 382 | something for less than your hourly rate, outsource it or don't do it. | 少付你小时工资 外包还是不做 |
| 383 | So if you can hire someone to | 所以如果你能雇个人 |
| 384 | do it for less than your hourly rate, hire them. | 照你每小时的费率办事 雇他们 |
| 385 | That even includes things like cooking. | 甚至包括烹饪之类的东西 |
| 386 | Now you | 现在你 |
| 387 | may want to eat your healthy home cooked meals, but if you can outsource it, do that instead. | 可能想吃你健康家做的饭, 但是如果你可以外包它,代之以。 |
| 388 | And I know some people will say, well, what about the joy of life and what about getting it right | 我知道有些人会说 人生的欢乐如何 以及如何正确 |
| 389 | just your way? | 只是你的方式吗? |
| 390 | Sure, you can do that, but you're not going to be wealthy because now you've made | 当然,你可以做到这一点, 但你不会是富有, 因为现在你已经做了 |
| 391 | something else a priority. | 还有其他的要紧事 |
| 392 | Paul Graham said it pretty well for Y Combinator startups. | 保罗·格雷厄姆(Paul Graham)对Y联合企业的创始人说得很好. |
| 393 | He said, | 他说, |
| 394 | you should be working on your product and getting product market fit and you should be exercising | 你应该在你的产品上工作, 使产品市场适合,你应该锻炼 |
| 395 | and eating healthy. | 和健康的饮食。 |
| 396 | Like that's about it. | 喜欢它。 |
| 397 | That's kind of all you have time for while you're on this | 这就是你在这期间的全部时间 |
| 398 | mission. | 任务。 |
| 399 | So set a very high hourly aspirational rate for yourself and stick to it. | 所以为自己设定一个非常高的小时愿望率并坚持下去. |
| 400 | And it should | 它应该 |
| 401 | seem and feel absurdly high. | 似乎和感觉 荒谬的高。 |
| 402 | If it doesn't, it's not high enough. | 若不高则不高. |
| 403 | And whatever you picked, | 不管你选什么 |
| 404 | my advice to you would be raise it. | 我对你的忠告是会提高它。 |
| 405 | Like I said, for myself, even before I had money for the longest | 就像我说的,为了我自己, 甚至在我有钱买最长的 |
| 406 | time, I used $5,000 an hour. | 时间,我用$5000每小时。 |
| 407 | And if you extrapolate that out into what it looks like as an annual | 如果你推断出它 看起来像一个年度 |
| 408 | salary, it's multiple millions of dollars per year. | 薪水,每年是数百万美元。 |
| 409 | Ironically, I actually think I've beaten it. | 讽刺的是,我确实认为我已经打败了它。 |
| 410 | When I look back, because I'm not the hardest working person, I'm actually kind of a lazy person. | 回头看,因为我不是最难的工人, 其实我是一个懒惰的人。 |
| 411 | So I work through bursts of energy where I'm really motivated with some things. | 所以我用能量来工作, 在那里我真的很有动力。 |
| 412 | If I actually | 如果我真的这样 |
| 413 | look at how much I've earned per actual hour that I've put in, it's probably quite a bit higher than | 你看,我每个实际小时挣多少钱, 我投入,它可能比 |
| 414 | that. | 那个 |
| 415 | Let's talk about hard work. | 说苦行. |
| 416 | There's this battle that happens on Twitter a lot between | 在推特上经常发生这场战斗 |
| 417 | should you work harder and should you not. | 你应该努力工作,而你不应该。 |
| 418 | Like David Hauser is on there saying, | 就像大卫·豪泽尔在说 |
| 419 | it's like you're slave driving people. | 就像你是奴隶 驱使人们。 |
| 420 | And Keith Raboi is always on there saying like, no, | 而基思・拉布总是在那里说,不, |
| 421 | all the great founders work their fingers to the bone. | 所有伟大的创始人都把手指伸到骨头上 |
| 422 | And they're talking past each other. | 和他们谈话过对方。 |
| 423 | First of all, they're talking about two different things. | 首先,他们谈论两个不同的事物。 |
| 424 | David is talking about employees in a | 大卫在谈论员工 |
| 425 | thing in life if you're doing that is not getting wealthy. | 人生中的事情 如果你这样做 并不富裕。 |
| 426 | You have a job, you also have your family, | 你有工作,你还有家人 |
| 427 | you also have your life. | 你还有你的生活。 |
| 428 | But Keith is talking about the Olympics of startups. | 但是基思在谈论创业者的奥运会. |
| 429 | He's talking | 他在说话 |
| 430 | about the person going for the gold medal and trying to build a multi-billion dollar public | 想要赢得金牌 并试图建立一个数十亿美元的公众 |
| 431 | company. | 连队。 |
| 432 | That person has to get everything right. | 那个人必须把一切都做好 |
| 433 | They have to have great judgment. | 他们必须有伟大的判断。 |
| 434 | They have to | 他们必须 |
| 435 | pick the right thing to work on. | 选择正确的工作。 |
| 436 | They have to recruit the right team and they have to work crazy | 他们必须招到合适的队伍 他们必须疯狂工作 |
| 437 | hard because they're basically engaged in a competitive sprint. | 因为他们基本上在参加一场竞技短跑 |
| 438 | So if getting wealthy is | 所以如果有钱了 |
| 439 | your goal, you are going to have to work as hard as you can. | 你的目标,你必须努力工作 |
| 440 | But hard work is absolutely no substitute | 但辛勤工作绝对不能替代 |
| 441 | for who you work with and what you work on. | 为了你和谁合作 以及你的工作 |
| 442 | What you work on is probably the most important thing. | 你的工作也许是最重要的 |
| 443 | Finding product market founder fit to expand on Mark Andresen's definition. | 寻找产品市场创始人适合扩展马克·安德森的定义. |
| 444 | He came up with | 他想出来的 |
| 445 | product market fit, but I would add product market founder fit, which is how well you are | 产品市场合适,但我还要加上产品市场创始人合适,这就是你有多好 |
| 446 | personally suited to that business. | 个人适合这个行业。 |
| 447 | The combination of that three, that should be your overwhelming | 三个组合,那应该是你的压倒性 |
| 448 | goal. | 目标。 |
| 449 | And you can save yourself a lot of time if you pick the right area to work in. | 如果你选择合适的工作区域,你可以节省很多时间。 |
| 450 | Picking the | 选择 |
| 451 | right people to work with is the next most important piece. | 合适的人一起工作 是下一个最重要的作品。 |
| 452 | And then third comes how hard | 第三个又会有多难 |
| 453 | you work, but they're like three legs of a stool. | 你工作,但他们就像三条腿的凳子。 |
| 454 | If you shortchange in any one of them, the whole | 如果其中任何一个都少了 整个 |
| 455 | stool is going to fall down. | 凳子要掉下来了 |
| 456 | So it's not like you can pick one over the other that easily. | 所以,它不是像你可以选择 一个比另一个容易。 |
| 457 | So the order of operations when you're building a business is, or even building your career, | 所以,当你建立企业, 甚至建立你的事业, |
| 458 | is first figure out what should I be doing? | 先想想我该做什么? |
| 459 | What is something where there is a market that is | 哪里有市场 |
| 460 | emerging, there's a product that I can build that I'm excited to work on, and something where I have | 正在出现,有一个产品我可以制造, 我兴奋地工作, 和我拥有的东西 |
| 461 | specific knowledge and I'm really into it. | 具体的知识,我很喜欢 |
| 462 | And then second, surround yourself with the best people | 第二,你身边有最好的人 |
| 463 | possible. | 也许吧 |
| 464 | And no matter how high your bar is, raise your bar, because you can never be working | 无论你的酒吧有多高,举起你的酒吧 因为你永远不能工作 |
| 465 | with other people who are great enough. | 与其他人 谁伟大的。 |
| 466 | If there's someone greater out there to work with, you should | 如果有更伟大的人在那里工作, 你应该 |
| 467 | go work with them. | 和他们一起工作。 |
| 468 | I advise a lot of people who are looking at which start to join in Silicon Valley | 我建议很多人开始加入硅谷 |
| 469 | as they basically pick the one that's going to have the best alumni network for you in the future. | 因为他们基本上选一个 将来会有最好的校友网络 |
| 470 | Look at the PayPal mafia. | 看看那个黑手党 |
| 471 | They work with a bunch of geniuses, so they all got rich. | 他们和一群天才一起工作 所以他们都发财了 |
| 472 | So just try and pick based on the highest intelligence, energy and integrity people | 所以根据最高智商 能量和正直的人来挑选 |
| 473 | that you can find. | 你能找到的,你已经找到了 |
| 474 | And then finally, once you've picked the right thing to work on and the right | 最后,一旦你选择了合适的工作 和正确的 |
| 475 | people to work with, then you work as hard as you can. | 和人们一起工作,然后你尽可能努力工作。 |
| 476 | This is where the mythology gets a little | 这是神话中有点 |
| 477 | crazy. | 疯了。 |
| 478 | People work 80, 120 hour weeks. | 人们工作80,120小时周。 |
| 479 | A lot of that's just status signaling. | 很多只是状态信号。 |
| 480 | It's showing off. | 示众曰. |
| 481 | Nobody really works 80 to 120 hours a week sustained at high output with mental clarity. | 没有人真的工作80到120小时 每周的高产量 保持精神清晰。 |
| 482 | Your brain breaks down, you just won't have good ideas. | 你的大脑崩溃了,你就是没有好点子 |
| 483 | So really the way people tend to work most | 所以,真正的方式 人们倾向于工作最 |
| 484 | effectively, especially in knowledge work is they sprint as hard as they can while they're working | 有效,尤其是在知识工作上 他们工作时尽量冲刺 |
| 485 | on something and they're inspired and they're passionate and then they rest to take long breaks. | 和他们的灵感 和热情,然后休息 长时间休息。 |
| 486 | It's more like a lion hunting and much less like a marathon runner running. | 更像是猎狮 更不像跑马拉松的跑者 |
| 487 | So you sprint, then you | 所以,你冲刺,然后你 |
| 488 | rest, you reassess and then you try again. | 休息,你重新评估 然后再试一次。 |
| 489 | And what you end up doing is you end up building a | 你最后要做的是 你最终会建立一个 |
| 490 | marathon of sprints. | 马拉松冲刺。 |
| 491 | Nivy just made the point to me on the side that inspiration is perishable, | Nivy刚刚告诉我 灵感是易腐烂的 |
| 492 | which is a very good point. | 这是一个很好的观点。 |
| 493 | When you have your inspiration, do it right then and there. | 当你得到你的灵感时, 做它的时间和那里。 |
| 494 | This | 这个 |
| 495 | happens to me a lot with my tweet storms. | 我的推特暴风雨时, |
| 496 | I've actually come up with a whole bunch of additional | 我实际上想出了一大堆额外的 |
| 497 | tweet storms besides the ones that are already out there, but sometimes I just hesitate or I just | 除了那些已经存在的暴风雨之外 有时我犹豫不决 |
| 498 | pause and then it just dies. | 暂停,然后它就死了。 |
| 499 | And what I've learned is if I'm inspired to write a blog post or to | 我所学到的就是 如果我被启发写博客文章或者 |
| 500 | publish a tweet storm, I should probably do it right away. | 发布推特暴风雨,我也许应该马上做. |
| 501 | Otherwise it's not going to get out | 否则它就出不去了 |
| 502 | there. | 这里 |
| 503 | I won't come back to it. | 我不会回来的 |
| 504 | So inspiration is a beautiful and powerful thing. | 因此灵感是一件美丽而强大的事情. |
| 505 | And when you have | 当你有 |
| 506 | it, just seize it. | 抓住它 抓住它 抓住它 |
| 507 | So people talk about impatience. | 故人谈无厌. |
| 508 | When do you know to be impatient? | 你什么时候知道不耐烦? |
| 509 | When do you know | 你什么时候知道 |
| 510 | to be patient? | 要耐心吗? |
| 511 | My glib tweet on this was impatience with actions and patience with the results. | 我对此事的glib推文, |
| 512 | And I | 还有我 |
| 513 | think that's actually a good philosophy for life. | 认为这实际上是一个良好的哲学生活。 |
| 514 | Anything you have to do, just get it done. | 无论你做什么,只要把它完成。 |
| 515 | Why | 为什么 |
| 516 | wait? | 单单 |
| 517 | You're not getting any younger. | 你不会再年轻了 |
| 518 | Your life is slipping away. | 你的生活正在消逝。 |
| 519 | You don't want to spend it waiting | 你不想花在等待的时候 |
| 520 | in line. | 排队 |
| 521 | You don't want to spend it traveling back and forth. | 你不想花它 往返旅行。 |
| 522 | You don't want to spend it doing | 你不想花它来做 |
| 523 | things that you know ultimately aren't part of your mission. | 你知道的事情 最终不是你的任务的一部分。 |
| 524 | And when you do them, you want to | 当你这样做,你想 |
| 525 | do them as quickly as you can while you do them well with your full attention. | 尽你所能尽快完成,同时全心全意地完成 |
| 526 | But then you just | 不过你只是 |
| 527 | have to give up on the results. | 必须放弃结果。 |
| 528 | You have to be patient with the results because you're dealing | 你要对结果有耐心 因为你在交易 |
| 529 | with complex systems. | 有复杂的系统。 |
| 530 | You're dealing with lots of people. | 你在对付很多人 |
| 531 | It takes a long time for markets to adopt | 市场需要很长的时间 |
| 532 | products. | 产品。 |
| 533 | It takes time for people to get comfortable working with each other. | 人们需要时间来适应彼此的工作。 |
| 534 | It takes time for great | 这需要时间 伟大的 |
| 535 | products to emerge as you polish away, polish away, polish away. | 当你抛光时 产品就会出现 抛光 抛光 |
| 536 | So impatience with actions, | 如此不耐烦的行动, |
| 537 | patience with results. | 对结果有耐心 |
| 538 | And as Nibby said, inspiration is perishable. | 正如尼比所说 灵感是易腐烂的 |
| 539 | So when you have | 所以,当你有 |
| 540 | inspiration, act on it right then and there. | 灵感,就在这里 |
| 541 | If I have a problem that I discover in one of my | 如果我有一个问题,我发现在我的之一 |
| 542 | businesses that needs to be solved, I won't sleep until at least the resolution is in motion. | 需要解决的企业,我不会睡觉 至少直到决议启动。 |
| 543 | And | 还有 |
| 544 | this is just a personal feeling. | 这只是个人的感觉。 |
| 545 | But if I'm on the board of a company, I'll call the CEO. | 但如果我在一家公司的董事会 我会打电话给CEO |
| 546 | If I'm | 狦и琌 |
| 547 | running the company, I'll call my reports. | 我会打电话给我的报告。 |
| 548 | If I'm responsible, I'll get on there right then and there | 如果我有责任,我马上去 |
| 549 | and solve it. | 并解决它。 |
| 550 | If I don't solve a problem, the moment it happens or I don't start moving towards | 如果我不解决一个问题, 那一刻它发生或我不开始走向 |
| 551 | solving the moment it happens, I have no peace. | 解决它发生的那一刻, 我没有和平。 |
| 552 | I have no rest. | 我没有休息。 |
| 553 | I have no happiness until that | 在那之前我没有快乐 |
| 554 | problem is solved. | 问题解决了。 |
| 555 | So solve it as quickly as possible. | 所以尽快解决 |
| 556 | I literally won't sleep until it's | 我真的不会睡觉,直到它 |
| 557 | solved. | 解决了。 |
| 558 | Maybe that's a personal characteristic, but it's worked out well in business. | 也许这是个人的特质,但是在商业上效果很好. |
| 559 | We squander | 我们挥霍 |
| 560 | our time with a death of a thousand cuts. | 我们的时代 千刀万刀 |
| 561 | So another tweet I had was, you should be too busy | 所以,我的另一个推文是, 你应该太忙 |
| 562 | to do coffee while still keeping an uncluttered calendar. | 一边做咖啡,一边保持一个没有麻烦的日历。 |
| 563 | People who know me know that I'm famous | 认识我的人知道我很出名 |
| 564 | for simultaneously doing two things. | 同时做两件事 |
| 565 | One is having a very clean calendar. | 一个是日历很干净 |
| 566 | I have almost no meetings | 我几乎没开会 |
| 567 | on it. | 交给我 |
| 568 | And there are people that I meet with when they see my calendar, they almost weep. | 有些人看到我的日历时,我遇见他们, 他们几乎哭了。 |
| 569 | Well, | 那个 |
| 570 | at the same time, I am busy all the time. | 与此同时,我总是很忙。 |
| 571 | I'm always doing something. | 我总是做一些事情。 |
| 572 | And it's usually | 通常是这样的 |
| 573 | quote unquote work related. | 引用未引用的相关工作 。 |
| 574 | But it is whatever the highest impact thing is that needs to be done | 但无论什么影响最大 都需要去做 |
| 575 | at that time and that I'm most interested and inspired about. | 那时我很感兴趣 也很受启发 |
| 576 | But the only way to do that | 但唯一的办法 |
| 577 | is to constantly ruthlessly decline meetings. | 总是无情地拒绝开会 |
| 578 | People want to do coffee and build relationships. | 人们想做咖啡和建立关系。 |
| 579 | And that's fine early in your career when you're still exploring, but later in your career when | 这在职业生涯的早期是好的 当你还在探索, 但在你的职业生涯的后期 |
| 580 | there are more things coming at you than you have time for, you have to ruthlessly cut meetings out | 你遇到的事情比时间还多 你不得不无情地切断会议 |
| 581 | of your life. | 你一生的记忆 |
| 582 | If someone wants to do a meeting, see if you can do it with a phone call instead. | 如果有人想开个会 看看能不能用电话打个电话 |
| 583 | If they want to do a phone call, see if they can do it with an email instead. | 如果他们想打个电话 看看能不能用电子邮件 |
| 584 | If they want to do | 如果他们愿意的话 |
| 585 | an email, see if they can do a text message instead. | 电子邮件,请查看他们是否可以做一个短信。 |
| 586 | If they're text messaging, you should | 如果他们是短信,你应该 |
| 587 | probably be ignoring most text messages unless they're true emergencies. | 可能忽略了大多数短信 除非它们是真正的紧急情况 |
| 588 | So one has to be utterly | 所以必须彻底 |
| 589 | ruthless about dodging meetings. | 无情地躲开会议。 |
| 590 | When you do do meetings, do walking meetings, do standing | 当你开会、散步、站立 |
| 591 | meetings, keep them short, keep them actionable, keep them small. | 开会、短时间、可以行动、小时间 |
| 592 | Any meeting with eight people | 跟八个人见面 |
| 593 | and it's sitting on a conference table, nothing is getting done in that meeting. | 它坐在一个会议桌边, 在那次会议里没有任何进展。 |
| 594 | You're literally | 你其实是 |
| 595 | just dying one hour at a time. | 只是一个小时就死了 |
| 596 | Doing coffee reminds me of an old quote I think from Steve | 喝咖啡让我想起史提夫的一句老话 |
| 597 | Jobs when they asked him, hey, why doesn't Apple come to conventions or why don't you come to my | 工作,当他们问他,嘿, 为什么苹果不来 公约,或者你为什么不来我 |
| 598 | convention? | 公约? |
| 599 | And his response was, well, then because we wouldn't be here working. | 他的反应是 因为我们不会在这里工作 |
| 600 | Yeah, | 对 |
| 601 | I used to have a tough time turning people down for meetings, but now I just tell them outright. | 我以前很难拒绝别人开会 但现在我直接告诉他们 |
| 602 | I just say, look, I don't do non-transactional meetings. | 我只是说,你看, 我不做非交易会议。 |
| 603 | I don't do meetings without a strict | 没有严格规定,我不开会 |
| 604 | agenda. | 议程。 |
| 605 | I don't do meetings unless we absolutely have to. | 除非我们一定要开会 否则我不会开会的 |
| 606 | Nibvi used to do this. | 尼卜维曾作此. |
| 607 | He would email | 他会发电子邮件 |
| 608 | people when they would ask Nibvi and I for a meeting, like coffee meeting, get to know you. | 人们会问尼布维和我见面 像咖啡会议一样 了解你 |
| 609 | He would say, we don't do meetings unless it's life and death urgent. | 他会说 除非生死攸关 否则我们不开会 |
| 610 | And then that person | 然后那个人 |
| 611 | has to respond, yeah, it's life and death urgent or there's no meeting. | 一定要回应,是的,这是生死 紧急或没有会议。 |
| 612 | When you have something | 当你有东西 |
| 613 | important or something valuable, other busy, interesting people will meet with you. | 重要或有价值的, 其他忙碌,有趣的人 会与你见面。 |
| 614 | Your | 你们 |
| 615 | calling card has to be, hey, here's what I've done. | 电话卡必须是,嘿,这是我所做的。 |
| 616 | Here's what I can show you. | 这是我能给你看的 |
| 617 | Let's meet and I'll | 让我们见面,我会 |
| 618 | be respectful of your time if this is useful to you. | 尊重你的时间 如果这对你有用的话 |
| 619 | And I find that there are very busy, | 我发现这里很忙 |
| 620 | important people who will take your meeting, but you have to come with a proper calling card. | 重要的人谁会参加你的会议, 但你必须来 一个适当的呼叫卡。 |
| 621 | All the people who tweet and who email famous or rich people saying, hey, if I could just get one | 所有发微博和发电子邮件的人 名人或富人说,嘿,如果我能得到一个 |
| 622 | and they're vague about it, they're not going to get anywhere in life. | 他们对此很模糊, 他们不会得到任何生活。 |
| 623 | You have to build up | 你必须振作起来 |
| 624 | the credibility. | 信誉。 |
| 625 | When, for example, an investor in the tech business and the venture business | 例如,技术企业和风险企业的投资者 |
| 626 | looks at a startup, the first thing they want to see is they want to see some evidence of product | 看一个开始,他们想看到的第一件事是 他们想看到一些产品的证据 |
| 627 | progress. | 进展。 |
| 628 | They don't just want to even see a slide deck. | 他们不想看到滑板 |
| 629 | They want to see product progress | 他们想看看产品的进展 |
| 630 | because the product progress is the resume for the entrepreneur. | 因为产品的进步是企业家的简历。 |
| 631 | It is the unshakable, | 这是不可动摇的, |
| 632 | unfakable resume. | 不可伪造的简历 。 |
| 633 | So you have to do the work. | 所以,你必须做的工作。 |
| 634 | To use a crypto analogy, you have to have proof of | 要用密码类比, 你必须有证据证明 |
| 635 | work. | 工作时 |
| 636 | If you have proof of work and you truly have something interesting, then you shouldn't hesitate | 如果你有工作证明 而且你确实有有趣的东西 那你就不应该犹豫 |
| 637 | to put it together in an email and send it to somebody. | 把它放在邮件里 发给别人 |
| 638 | But even then, when you're asking for | 但即使如此,当你要求 |
| 639 | a meeting, you want to be super actionable about it. | 开个会,你就想对它采取行动 |
| 640 | But I would say even the other side, even if | 但我会说,甚至另一边, 即使 |
| 641 | you yourself haven't made it yet, if you think you're going to make it by going out and networking | 你还没来得及 如果你觉得自己能通过出门和联网 |
| 642 | and doing a whole bunch of meetings, you're probably incorrect. | 和做一大堆会议, 你可能不正确。 |
| 643 | Yes, networking can be important | 是的,联网可能很重要 |
| 644 | early in your career. | 在你的职业生涯早期。 |
| 645 | 是的,你可以得到serventiptions, 但概率是 | |
| 646 | pretty low. | 相当低。 |
| 647 | And as we spent time talking about earlier, when you are just meeting people and | 当我们花时间谈论 早些时候, 当你只是遇到人们, |
| 648 | hoping to get that lucky break, you're relying on type one luck, which is blind luck and type | 希望有幸运的突破, 你依赖第一种运气, 这是盲目的运气和类型 |
| 649 | two luck, which is hustle luck. | 两个运气,这就是运利。 |
| 650 | But what you're not getting is type three or type four luck, | 但你没有得到的是3型或4型运气, |
| 651 | which are the better kinds where you spend time developing a reputation, working on something, | 这些是更好的种类 在那里,你花时间 发展声誉, 工作的东西, |
| 652 | developing a unique point of view and being able to spot opportunities that others can't. | 发展出独特的观点,并能够发现其他人无法抓住的机会。 |
| 653 | A busy calendar and a busy mind will destroy your ability to do great things in this world. | 繁忙的日历和繁忙的头脑会破坏你在这个世界上做大事的能力. |
| 654 | If you want to be able to do great things, whether you're a musician or whether you are a | 如果你想做伟大的事情, 无论你是一个音乐家还是你是一个 |
| 655 | entrepreneur or whether you're an investor, you need free time and you need a free mind. | 企业家或者你是否是投资人,你需要自由时间,你需要自由的头脑. |
| 656 | We just finished talking about the importance of working hard and valuing your time. | 我们刚刚谈完努力工作 重视你的时间的重要性 |
| 657 | Next, | 下一个 |
| 658 | there's a few tweets on the topic of working for the long term. | 有几条微博提到长期工作的主题。 |
| 659 | The first tweet is, | 第一个推特是, |
| 660 | become the best in the world at what you do. | 成为世界上最好的 你做什么。 |
| 661 | Keep redefining what you do until this is true. | 继续重新定义你的行为 直到这是真的 |
| 662 | If you really want to get paid in this world, you want to be number one at whatever it is that | 如果你真的想在这个世界上得到报酬, 你想成为第一 无论是什么 |
| 663 | you're doing. | 你这样做。 |
| 664 | And it can be niche. | 并且它可以是合适的。 |
| 665 | That's the point. | 这就是重点。 |
| 666 | It can literally be you're getting paid | 可能你得到报酬了 |
| 667 | for just being you. | 因为只是当你。 |
| 668 | You know, at this point, some of the more successful people in the world are | 此时此刻,世界上一些比较成功的人 |
| 669 | that way. | 那边 |
| 670 | Oprah gets paid for being Oprah. | 奥普拉因为是奥普拉而得到报酬. |
| 671 | Joe Rogan gets paid for being Joe Rogan. | 乔·罗根因为是乔·罗根而获得报酬. |
| 672 | And they're | 他们是 |
| 673 | being authentic to themselves. | 对自己来说是真实的 |
| 674 | So what this tweet is trying to say simultaneously is that you want | 所以这个微博试图同时说,你想要 |
| 675 | to be number one, but you're going to keep changing what you do until you're number one. | 但你要不断改变你的行为 直到你成为第一 |
| 676 | You can't just pick something arbitrary. | 你不能随便挑些武断的东西 |
| 677 | You can't say, I'm going to be the fastest runner | 你不能说,我会成为最快的跑者 |
| 678 | in the world. | 在这个世界。 |
| 679 | And now you got to beat the same bolt. | 现在你必须击败同样的螺栓。 |
| 680 | That's too hard of a problem. | 这太难解决了 |
| 681 | But what you | 不过你 |
| 682 | can do is you can keep changing what your objective is until it arrives to your specific | 你可以继续改变你的目标 直到它达到你的具体目标 |
| 683 | knowledge, your skill sets, your position, your capabilities, your location, your interests, | 知识 技能 位置 能力 位置 兴趣 |
| 684 | and then converges to making you number one. | 然后凝聚成你的第一。 |
| 685 | So when you're searching for what to do, | 所以当你在寻找 做什么, |
| 686 | you actually have two different foci that you have to keep in mind at all points. | 你实际上有两个不同的轴心 你必须记住在所有点。 |
| 687 | And one of those is I want to be the best at what I do. | 其中一个是我想成为我最擅长的 |
| 688 | And the second is what I do is flexible so | 第二,我的工作很灵活 |
| 689 | that I am the best at it until you arrive at a comfortable place where you're like, yes, | 我是最好的,直到你到达一个舒适的地方 你喜欢,是的, |
| 690 | this is something I can be amazing at while still being authentic to who I am. | 这是我可以令人惊叹的事物 同时仍然是真实的我是谁。 |
| 691 | And this is not going | 这是不可能的 |
| 692 | to be an overnight discovery. | 成为一夜之间的发现 |
| 693 | It's going to be a long journey, but at least you know how to think | 这将是一个漫长的旅程, 但至少你知道如何思考 |
| 694 | about it. | 关于它。 |
| 695 | The most important thing for a company is to find product market fit. | 对于一个公司来说,最重要的事情是发现产品市场适合. |
| 696 | I would say the | 我会说 |
| 697 | most important thing for an entrepreneur is to find founder product market fit where you are | 创业者最重要的事情是 发现创始人的产品市场适合你的位置 |
| 698 | naturally inclined to build the right product, which has a market. | 自然倾向于建立正确的产品,它有一个市场。 |
| 699 | And that's the three focus | 这就是三个重点 |
| 700 | problem, which is you got to make all three of those work at once. | 问题,这就是你必须让 这三个工作同时。 |
| 701 | If you want to be successful | 如果你想成功的话 |
| 702 | in life, you just have to get comfortable managing multivariate problems, multiple objective | 在生活中,你只需要得到舒适 管理多变的问题,多目标 |
| 703 | functions at once. | 函数。 |
| 704 | And this is one of those cases where you have to map at least two or three at | 这是其中之一,你必须绘制至少两到三个 |
| 705 | once. | 曾经 |
| 706 | This reminds me of your tweet about escaping competition through authenticity. | 这让我想起了你的推特 关于逃避竞争的真实性。 |
| 707 | It sounds like | 听起来像 |
| 708 | part of this is a search for who you are. | 一部分是寻找你是谁 |
| 709 | It's both a search and a recognition, because sometimes | 这既是搜索也是识别 因为有时候 |
| 710 | when we search our egos, we want to be something that we aren't. | 当我们搜索我们的自我, 我们想成为的东西,我们不是。 |
| 711 | And our friends and family are | 我们的朋友和家人 |
| 712 | better at telling us actually who we are, or looking back at what we've done is a better | 最好告诉我们我们是谁 或者回顾一下我们做了什么 |
| 713 | indicator of who we are. | 我们是谁的指标。 |
| 714 | Peter Thiel talks a lot about how competition is besides the point, | 彼得,别这样 蒂尔谈了很多关于竞争的问题 |
| 715 | it's counterproductive. | 适得其反. |
| 716 | We're highly mimetic creatures. | 我们是高度模仿的生物。 |
| 717 | We copy what everybody else is doing | 我们复制大家正在做的 |
| 718 | around us. | 我们周围。 |
| 719 | We copy our desires from them. | 我们从他们那里复制我们的欲望。 |
| 720 | Everyone around me is a great artist. | 我身边的每个人都是伟大的艺术家 |
| 721 | I want to be an | 我想成为一个 |
| 722 | artist. | 艺术家。 |
| 723 | If everyone around me is a great business person, I want to be a business person. | 如果我身边的每个人都是好生意人 我想成为生意人 |
| 724 | Everybody | 每个人 |
| 725 | around me is a social activist. | 我身边是一个社会活动家。 |
| 726 | I want to be a social activist. | 我想成为一个社会活动家。 |
| 727 | That's where my self-esteem will | 那是我的自尊心会在那里 |
| 728 | come from. | 从何而来. |
| 729 | You have to be a little careful when you get caught up in these status games that you | 你进入这些状态游戏的时候要小心 |
| 730 | end up competing over things that aren't worth competing over. | 最终为了不值得竞争的东西而竞争 |
| 731 | So Peter Thiel talks about how | 这么说彼得 蒂尔谈论如何 |
| 732 | he was going to be a law clerk because he was in law school, and everybody around him wanted to | 他本来要当书记官的 因为他在法学院 周围的人都想 |
| 733 | be a law clerk for a Supreme Court justice or some famous judge, and he got rejected. | 成为最高法院法官或一些著名法官的书记官,他遭到拒绝. |
| 734 | And that's what | 这就是 |
| 735 | made him go into business. | 让他去做生意。 |
| 736 | So it helped him break out of a lesser game into a greater game. | 因此,这帮助他从一个较小的游戏中突破进入一个更大的游戏. |
| 737 | So | 这么说 |
| 738 | sometimes you just get trapped in the wrong game because you're competing. | 有时候你只是被困在错误的游戏 因为你的竞争。 |
| 739 | And the best way to | 最好的办法 |
| 740 | escape competition, to get away from the specter of competition, which is not just stressful and | 逃避竞争, 远离竞争的幽灵, 这不仅仅是压力和 |
| 741 | nerve-racking, but will often drive you to just the wrong answer, the way to escape competition is | 神经紧张,但往往会 驱使你只是错误的答案, 逃避竞争的方法是 |
| 742 | just to be authentic to yourself. | 只是为了对自己真实 |
| 743 | If you are fundamentally building and marketing something | 如果你根本上是建筑和营销的东西 |
| 744 | that is just an extension of who you are, no one can compete with you on that. | 那只是你身份的延伸 没人能跟你竞争 |
| 745 | Who's going | 谁去 |
| 746 | to compete with Joe Rogan or Scott Adams? | 和乔·罗根或斯科特·亚当斯竞争? |
| 747 | It's impossible. | 这是不可能的。 |
| 748 | Is somebody else going to come along | 别人会来吗? |
| 749 | and write a better Dilbert? | 写一个更好的迪尔伯特? |
| 750 | No. | 没有 |
| 751 | Is someone going to compete with Bill Watterson and create a better | 是不是有人要和比尔·沃特森竞争 创造更好的 |
| 752 | Calvin and Hobbes? | 卡尔文和霍布斯? |
| 753 | No. | 没有 |
| 754 | They're being authentic. | 他们是真实的。 |
| 755 | This is easiest to see in art. | 这在艺术中是很容易看到的。 |
| 756 | Artists are, | 艺术家是, |
| 757 | by definition, all naturally authentic. | 从定义上讲,都是自然真实的。 |
| 758 | But even entrepreneurs are authentic. | 但连企业家都是真的 |
| 759 | Who's going to be | 谁会是 |
| 760 | Elon Musk? | 伊隆・穆斯克? |
| 761 | Who's going to be Jack Dorsey? | 谁是杰克多西? |
| 762 | These people are authentic and the businesses and | 这些人是真实的 和企业, |
| 763 | products they create are authentic to their desires and their means. | 他们创造的产品是真实的 他们的欲望和手段。 |
| 764 | If somebody else came | 如果有人来了 |
| 765 | along and started launching rockets, I don't think it would phase Elon one bit. | 并开始发射火箭, 我不认为它会 相位埃隆一点。 |
| 766 | He's still going to | 他还是会 |
| 767 | get to Mars because that's his mission. | 去火星 因为那是他的任务 |
| 768 | Insane as it seems, that's the one he set for himself | 看上去很疯狂,那是他为自己设定的 |
| 769 | and he's going to accomplish it. | 他会完成的 |
| 770 | So authenticity naturally gets you away from competition. | 所以真实性自然让你远离竞争. |
| 771 | It | 这个 |
| 772 | doesn't mean that you necessarily want to be authentic to the point where there's no product | 也不代表你一定要真实到没有产品 |
| 773 | market fit. | 市场合适。 |
| 774 | It may turn out you're the best juggler on a unicycle but maybe there just isn't | 或许你是单车最好的杂耍家 但也许没有 |
| 775 | that much of a market for that even with YouTube videos. | 即使有YouTube的视频 也有很多市场 |
| 776 | So you've got to adjust that somehow | 所以你得调整一下 |
| 777 | until you find product market fit but at least lean towards authenticity towards getting away | 直到你发现产品市场是合适的 但至少要倾向于真实性 |
| 778 | from competition and competition automatically leads towards copycatting and often towards just | 从竞争和竞争中自动导致模仿,并往往导致正义 |
| 779 | playing completely the wrong game. | 完全玩错了游戏。 |
| 780 | Especially in entrepreneurship, the masses are never right. | 特别是创业,群众永远不对. |
| 781 | If you see a lot of people tweeting about what a great market to enter is or you see journalists | 如果你看到很多人在推特上说 进入什么大市场 或者看到记者 |
| 782 | talking about a company is terrible, they don't know anything. | 谈论公司是可怕的, 他们什么都不知道。 |
| 783 | If the masses knew how to build | 如果大众知道如何建造 |
| 784 | great things and create great wealth, we'd all already be rich by now. | 伟大的事物和创造巨大的财富, 我们都已经富有了。 |
| 785 | So in a sense, | 所以从某种意义上说 |
| 786 | when you see a lot of competition, sometimes that indicates to you that the masses are already here | 当你看到很多竞争, 有时这向你们表明, 大众已经在这里 |
| 787 | so it's already competed over too much and there's nothing here or it's in the wrong trend to begin | 所以,它已经竞争过多, 这里什么都没有, 或者它处于错误的趋势开始 |
| 788 | with. | 带。 |
| 789 | On the other hand, if it's completely empty, if the whole market is empty and no one's there, | 另一方面,如果它是完全空的, 如果整个市场是空的,没有人在那里, |
| 790 | that can also be a warning indicator that you've gone too authentic and not enough on the product | 这也可以作为警示指标 表明你对产品太过真实和不够 |
| 791 | market fit part of founder product market fit. | 市场适合创始产品市场的一部分。 |
| 792 | So there's a balance. | 故有平衡. |
| 793 | You have to find it but | 你必须找到它,但 |
| 794 | generally most people will make the mistake of paying too much attention to the competition and | 一般来说,大多数人会犯一个错误 过于关注竞争 |
| 795 | being too much like the competition and not being authentic enough and the great founders tend to be | 和比赛太像 不够真实 伟大的创始人往往 |
| 796 | authentic iconoclasts. | 真正的标志。 |
| 797 | I hate to bring up the Scott Adams skill stack one more time but | 我不想再提起史考特·亚当斯的技艺了 |
| 798 | I'll still bring it up. | 我还会提起的 |
| 799 | Do you think one way of getting to authenticity is not necessarily adding | 你认为一种获得真实性的方法 不一定是添加 |
| 800 | some random skills that you think might be important but just really finding five or six | 一些随机技能,你认为可能很重要 但只是真正找到五或六 |
| 801 | various skills that you already authentically do and just stacking them on top of each other | 各种技能,你已经做了 并且只是堆叠在彼此之上 |
| 802 | and not even in any purposeful way. | 甚至没有任何目的 |
| 803 | If you are expressing who you are, you're going to be | 如果你在表达你是谁 你会是 |
| 804 | expressing all these little five or six different skills anyway. | 无论如何,表达这些小的五六种不同的技能。 |
| 805 | That's really where life is going | 生活就是那样的 |
| 806 | to lead you anyway. | 领导你反正。 |
| 807 | Long term, if you are good and successful at what you do, you will find | 长期来说,如果你是好人 和成功的工作,你会发现 |
| 808 | that whatever your hobbies were, you're almost doing them for a living. | 不管你的爱好是什么, 你几乎做他们的生活。 |
| 809 | As Robert Frost said, | 正如罗伯特·弗罗斯特所说, |
| 810 | combine your vocation and your avocation, what you love to do and what you do do. | 结合你的事业和你的职业, 你爱做什么和做什么。 |
| 811 | So I think you'll | 所以我认为你会 |
| 812 | find yourself there anyway and you're right about the skill stack and that everyone's got multiple | 不管怎么样,找到你自己,你是对的 关于技能堆 而且每个人都有多重 |
| 813 | skills. | 技术。 |
| 814 | We aren't all one-dimensional creatures even though that's how we have to portray ourselves | 我们并不是所有一维的生物 尽管我们必须这样描绘自己 |
| 815 | in our online profiles to get employed. | 在我们的在线简介 以获得就业。 |
| 816 | You meet somebody and they say I'm a banker or I'm a bartender | 你遇到别人,他们说我是银行家,还是酒保 |
| 817 | or I'm a barber or what have you, all the B's. | 或者我是一个理发师 或者你有什么,所有的B's。 |
| 818 | But people are multivariate, they have a lot of | 但人多变,他们有很多 |
| 819 | skills. | 技术。 |
| 820 | One banker might be good at finance, another one might be good at sales, a third one | 一个银行家可能善于金融,另一个银行家可能善于销售,第三个银行家 |
| 821 | might be just good at macroeconomic trends and have a feel for the markets. | 可能只是擅长宏观经济趋势,对市场有感觉。 |
| 822 | Another one might be | 另一个可能是 |
| 823 | really good at picking individual stocks. | 非常擅长挑选个体股票。 |
| 824 | Another one might just be good at maintaining relationships | 另一个可能只是擅长保持关系 |
| 825 | rather than selling new relationships. | 而不是卖新的关系。 |
| 826 | So everyone's going to have their various niches and you're | 所以,每个人都会 拥有自己的各种优势 而你 |
| 827 | going to have multiple niches, not going to be just one. | 将拥有多个优势, 不只是一个。 |
| 828 | So over time, you will find as you go | 所以,随着时间的推移,你会发现,当你去 |
| 829 | through your career, both you will gravitate towards the things that you're good at, which | 在你的职业生涯中,你将 引领你擅长的东西, |
| 830 | by definition are almost the things you enjoy doing, otherwise you wouldn't be good at them, | 顾名思义,你几乎就是喜欢做的事, 否则你不会擅长它们, |
| 831 | you wouldn't have put in the time. | 你也不会花时间的 |
| 832 | And other people will push you towards the things that | 其他人会把你推向那些东西 |
| 833 | you're good at because your smart bosses and your smart co-workers and your smart investors | 你擅长因为你的聪明老板 你的聪明同事和聪明的投资者 |
| 834 | will realize, okay, you're really world-class in this thing, you recruit somebody else for that | 你会意识到,好吧, 你真的是世界一流 这件事情,你招募别人为此 |
| 835 | other thing. | 还有一件事 |
| 836 | So ideally you want to end up specializing in being you. | 所以理想的是你最终想成为你 |
| 837 | I think when you're | 我想当你 |
| 838 | being authentic, you don't really mind competition that much. | 当真,你不会介意竞争的 |
| 839 | Yeah, it pisses you off and it inspires | 是啊,它惹你生气 并激励 |
| 840 | some fear and jealousy and all the other emotions that come along with it. | 恐惧和嫉妒 还有随之而来的情绪 |
| 841 | But also you don't really | 不过你也不是真的 |
| 842 | mind because you're more oriented towards the goal and the mission. | 因为你更倾向于目标 和任务。 |
| 843 | And worst case, you get some | 最坏的情况,你得到一些 |
| 844 | ideas from them and there's often ways to work with the competition in a positive way. | 从他们的想法, 往往有方法 与竞争以积极的方式工作。 |
| 845 | And it | 还有 |
| 846 | ends up increasing the size of the market for you. | 最终增加你的市场规模。 |
| 847 | Yeah, sometimes it depends on the nature of the | 是啊,有时候它取决于 的性质 |
| 848 | business. | 业务。 |
| 849 | Silicon Valley tech industry businesses tend to be winner take all, at least the good | 硅 谷科技工业企业往往能赢,至少能赢 |
| 850 | ones. | 这些 |
| 851 | And so when you see competition, it can make you fly into a rage because it really does | 所以,当你看到竞争, 它可以让你飞进愤怒,因为它真的 |
| 852 | endanger everything you've built. | 危及你建造的一切 |
| 853 | Whereas if I was opening a restaurant and a more interesting | 如果我开一家餐馆 更有趣 |
| 854 | version of the same restaurant opens up in a different town, that's fantastic. | 同一个餐厅的版本 在一个不同的城市打开, 这是美妙的。 |
| 855 | I'm just going | 我这就走 |
| 856 | to lift from them what's working and drop what I can see that they have already figured out is not | 从他们身上拔出工作的东西 掉下我看得出来他们已经知道的东西 |
| 857 | working. | 工作时 |
| 858 | So it does depend to some extent on the nature of the business. | 因此,它在某种程度上的确取决于企业的性质。 |
| 859 | That said, even the | 这么说,即使 |
| 860 | businesses that seem like that they are often direct competition really aren't. | 似乎经常是直接竞争的企业其实不是。 |
| 861 | They can end up | 他们可以结束 |
| 862 | adjacent or slightly different. | 相邻或略有不同。 |
| 863 | You're one step away from a completely different business. | 你离完全不同的生意还有一步 |
| 864 | And | 还有 |
| 865 | sometimes you need to take that one step and you're not going to be able to take it if you're busy | 有时候你需要迈出这一步 如果你很忙,你将无法承受 |
| 866 | fighting over a booby prize. | 争夺一个诱杀奖。 |
| 867 | Kind of you're playing a stupid game, you're going to win a stupid | 那种你玩一个愚蠢的游戏, 你会赢得一个愚蠢的 |
| 868 | prize. | 奖。 |
| 869 | It's not obvious right now because you're blinded by competition. | 现在不明显,因为你被竞争蒙蔽了眼睛. |
| 870 | But three years from now | 但从现在起三年后 |
| 871 | it'll be obvious. | 很明显 |
| 872 | To give a simple example, when I was first starting companies, one of my first | 举个简单的例子,当我刚创办公司时, 我的第一个公司之一 |
| 873 | was called Opinions, which was an online product review site for all the products out there that | 名为“意见”,是所有产品在线审查网站 |
| 874 | was independent of Amazon. | 曾经独立于亚马逊。 |
| 875 | 而那个空间最终变成了 TripAdvisor和Yelp, | |
| 876 | which is where we should have gone. | 这就是我们应该去的地方。 |
| 877 | We should have done more local reviews because there's more value | 我们本应该做更多的地方审查 因为有更大的价值 |
| 878 | to having a review of a scarce item like in a local restaurant that is of an item like a camera, | 像本地餐馆里一样的稀有物品 就像摄像机一样 |
| 879 | which was going to have a thousand reviews on Amazon. | 将会有一千篇关于亚马逊的评论 |
| 880 | But before we could get there, we got | 但是,在我们到达之前,我们得到了 |
| 881 | caught up in the whole comparison shopping game. | 卷入整个比较购物游戏. |
| 882 | 结果我们和DreamTime合并了 | |
| 883 | 与MySimon和Bizraid竞争,后者成为Shopsilla、PriceGrabber和Nextag和整个 | |
| 884 | bunch of these price comparison engines. | 这些价格比较引擎 |
| 885 | And we're all caught in fierce competition with each other. | 我们都陷入激烈的竞争之中 |
| 886 | And that whole space went to zero because it turns out Amazon won e-tail completely. | 整个空间变成零 因为亚马逊完全赢得了电子尾巴 |
| 887 | So there was no | 所以没有 |
| 888 | need for price comparison. | 需要价格比较。 |
| 889 | Everyone just went to Amazon. | 大家都去了亚马逊 |
| 890 | But we got the booby prize because we were | 但我们得到了诱杀奖,因为我们是 |
| 891 | caught in a competition with a bunch of our peers, when really we should have been looking at what | 和一群同龄人竞争的时候 我们真的应该看看 |
| 892 | the consumer really wanted and being authentic to ourselves, which was reviews and not price | 消费者真正想要的和真实的 对我们自己,这是审查而不是价格 |
| 893 | comparison and gone more and more into more and more esoteric items that needed to be reviewed | 比较,并越来越多地进入需要审查的越来越多的复杂项目 |
| 894 | where customers had less and less data and wanted reviews more badly. | 客户的数据越来越少 更想要评论 |
| 895 | So if we stayed authentic to | 所以如果我们保持真实 |
| 896 | ourselves, we would have done better. | 我们自己会做得更好 |
| 897 | We're still talking about working for the long term. | 我们仍然在谈论长期的工作。 |
| 898 | The next tweet on that topic is apply specific knowledge with leverage and eventually you will | 下一则关于这个话题的推文是运用特定知识, |
| 899 | get what you deserve. | 得到你应得的。 |
| 900 | I would also add to that, apply judgment, apply accountability and apply | 我还要补充一点,即适用判决、问责制和适用 |
| 901 | the skill of reading. | 阅读技巧。 |
| 902 | This one is just a glib way of saying that it takes time. | 这个只是说需要时间的一种格利布方式。 |
| 903 | Even once you have | 哪怕一旦你来了 |
| 904 | all of these pieces in place, there is an indeterminate amount of time that you're going to | 所有这些片段都到位了, 会有不确定的时间,你要去 |
| 905 | have to put in. | 得放进去 |
| 906 | And if you're counting, you will run out of patience before it actually arrives. | 如果你数数的话,你就会在它到达之前失去耐心。 |
| 907 | So you just have to make sure that you give these things a proper time. | 所以,你只需要确保 你给这些东西一个适当的时间。 |
| 908 | Life is long. | 寿命长. |
| 909 | Charlie Munger | 查理·芒格尔 |
| 910 | had some line on this. | 上面有些线索 |
| 911 | Somebody asked him about making money and he reinterpreted that and he | 有人问他赚钱的事 他重新解释后 |
| 912 | said, what the questioner is actually asking is how do I get rich like you but faster before I end | 说,问者其实是问我如何像你一样发财,但在我结束之前更快 |
| 913 | up as a really old guy? | 作为一个真正的老人? |
| 914 | And everybody wants it immediately, but the world is an efficient place. | 每个人都希望它立刻, 但世界是一个高效的地方。 |
| 915 | Immediate doesn't work. | 即时不效. |
| 916 | You do have to put in the time. | 你得把时间。 |
| 917 | You do have to put in the hours. | 你一定要把时间。 |
| 918 | And so I | 所以我才会 |
| 919 | think you just have to put yourself in the position with the specific knowledge, with the | 你只需要让自己处于 特定知识的地位 |
| 920 | accountability, with the leverage, with the authentic skill set that you have to be the best | 问责,利用杠杆, 真正的技能集,你必须是最好的 |
| 921 | in the world at what you do. | 在世界上你做什么。 |
| 922 | And then you have to enjoy it and just keep doing it and keep doing it | 然后你必须享受它 继续做下去 |
| 923 | and don't keep track and don't keep count. | 并且不要跟踪,不要继续数。 |
| 924 | Because if you do, you will run out of time. | 因为如果你这样做, 你会耗尽的时间。 |
| 925 | I can look back at my career and the people two decades ago that I had identified as brilliant | 我可以回顾我的事业 和20年前的人,我已经确定是辉煌的 |
| 926 | and hardworking but hadn't thought much more about it. | 辛勤工作,却没多想 |
| 927 | They're all successful now, almost without | 他们现在都成功,几乎没有 |
| 928 | exception. | 除外。 |
| 929 | On a long enough time scale, you do get paid, but it can easily be 10 or 20 years. | 在足够长的时间范围内,你会得到报酬,但很容易是10或20年。 |
| 930 | Sometimes it's five and if it's five or three and a friend of yours got there, it can drive you insane. | 有时候是5个 如果是5个或3个 你的一个朋友到了那里, 它会把你逼疯了。 |
| 931 | But those are exceptions. | 但这些都是例外。 |
| 932 | And for every winner, there's multiple failures. | 而对于每一个赢家来说,都会出现多次失败. |
| 933 | One thing that's important in entrepreneurship is you just have to be right once. | 在创业中很重要的一件事就是,你只需要正确一次。 |
| 934 | You get many, | 你得到许多, |
| 935 | many shots on goal. | 射门很多 |
| 936 | You can take a shot on goal every three to five years, maybe every 10 at | 你可以每3到5年打一球 也许每10次 |
| 937 | the slowest or once every year at the fastest, depending on how you're iterating with startups. | 每年最慢或最快一次 取决于你对初创企业的感受 |
| 938 | But you really only have to be right once. | 但你只要说一次就对了 |
| 939 | My little equation is that your eventual outcome | 我的小方程式是 你的最终结果 |
| 940 | will be equal to something like the distinctiveness of your specific knowledge | 将等于你特殊知识的特异性 |
| 941 | times how much leverage you can apply to that knowledge times how often your judgment is | 乘以你对知识的影响力 乘以你判断的频率 |
| 942 | correct times how singularly accountable you are for the outcome times how much society | 正确的时间 你对结果的负责程度 多少社会 |
| 943 | values what you're doing. | 珍视你在做什么。 |
| 944 | And then you compound all of that with how long you can keep doing it | 然后用你能持续多久来补充这一切 |
| 945 | and how long you can keep improving it through reading and learning. | 你可以通过阅读和学习不断改进它多久 |
| 946 | That's actually a really good way to summarize it. | 这其实是一个很好的总结方法。 |
| 947 | It's probably worth even trying to sketch | 画画也值得 |
| 948 | that equation out. | 那个方程式了。 |
| 949 | That said, people try to then apply mathematics to what is really philosophy. | 尽管如此,人们试图把数学应用到真正的哲学中。 |
| 950 | So I've seen this happen in the past where I say one thing and then I say another thing that seems | 所以,我见过这种情况 在过去,我说一件事 然后我说另一件事,似乎 |
| 951 | contradictory if you treat it as a math equation, but it's obviously in a different context. | 如果你把它当作一个数学方程,这是自相矛盾的,但它显然在不同的上下文中. |
| 952 | And then people will say, well, you say that desire is suffering. | 然后人们会说,嗯, 你说欲望是痛苦。 |
| 953 | That's the Buddhist saying. | 即是佛教说法. |
| 954 | And then you say that all greatness comes from suffering. | 后说一切大乘从苦来. |
| 955 | So does that mean all greatness comes | 所以,这意味着所有伟大的来 |
| 956 | from desire? | 从欲望? |
| 957 | And it's like, well, this isn't math people. | 这就像,好了,这不是数学的人。 |
| 958 | You can't just start carrying variables | 你不能只是开始携带变量 |
| 959 | around and forming absolute logical outputs. | 周围并形成绝对逻辑输出。 |
| 960 | You have to know when to apply things. | 你必须知道什么时候应用的东西。 |
| 961 | So I think | 所以我觉得 |
| 962 | that is very useful to understand. | 这对理解非常有用。 |
| 963 | But at the same time, one can't get too analytical about it. | 但与此同时,人们不能对此进行过多的分析. |
| 964 | It's | 这是 |
| 965 | what a physicist would call false precision. | 物理学家会称之为假精度 |
| 966 | When you take two made up estimates and you multiply | 当你用两个 计算和乘数 |
| 967 | them together and you get four degrees of precision, those decimal points don't actually | 他们在一起,你得到四度精度, 这些小数点实际上不是 |
| 968 | count. | 计数。 |
| 969 | You don't have that data. | 你没有这些数据。 |
| 970 | You don't have that knowledge. | 你没有这种知识。 |
| 971 | In a model, the more estimated | 在模型中,估计得越多 |
| 972 | variables you have, the greater the error in the model. | 变量,模型中错误越大。 |
| 973 | So just adding more and more complexity to | 所以,只是增加 越来越复杂 |
| 974 | your decision making process actually gets you a worse answer. | 你的决策过程让你得到更糟糕的答案 |
| 975 | You're better off just picking the | 你最好还是选个 |
| 976 | single biggest thing or two. | 一两件大事 |
| 977 | For example, what am I really good at? | 例如,我到底擅长什么? |
| 978 | According to observation and | 根据观察和 |
| 979 | according to people that I trust that the market values like that alone, those two variables alone | 我相信这样的市场价值 只有这两个变量 |
| 980 | are probably good enough. | 可能足够好。 |
| 981 | Because if you're good at it, you'll keep it up. | 因为若能精进持戒. |
| 982 | And if you're good at | 如果你擅长 |
| 983 | it, you develop the judgment. | 它,你发展判断。 |
| 984 | And if you're good at it, and you like to do it, eventually people | 如果你擅长,你喜欢做,最终人们 |
| 985 | will give you the resources and you won't be afraid to take on accountability. | 会给你资源 你不怕承担责任 |
| 986 | ┮Τ | |
| 987 | pieces will fall in place. | 片段会落地 |
| 988 | Product market fit is inevitable. | 产品市场是不可避免的。 |
| 989 | If you're doing something you love to | 如果你做了你喜欢的事 |
| 990 | do, and the market wants it. | 做,市场想要它。 |
| 991 | Regarding the guy that gets rich in five years, one of the tweets | 关于五年后发财的人,一个微博 |
| 992 | that you had on the cutting room floor was avoid people who got rich quickly. | 你在剪切室的地板上 避免了那些迅速发财的人 |
| 993 | They're just giving | 他们只是给 |
| 994 | you their winning lottery ticket numbers. | 你们是他们的中奖彩票号码 |
| 995 | This is generally true of advice anyway, which is it's back | 忠告一般都是这样 回来了 |
| 996 | to Scott Adams, systems not goals. | 给斯科特·亚当斯,系统不是目标。 |
| 997 | If you ask a specific person what worked for them, very often, | 如果你问一个特定的人什么对他们有用, 非常经常, |
| 998 | it's just like they're reading out the exact set of things that work for them, which may not be | 就像他们正在读那些对他们有用的东西 可能不是 |
| 999 | applicable for you. | 适用于您。 |
| 1000 | They're just reading your winning lottery ticket numbers. | 他们只是在看你的中奖彩票号码 |
| 1001 | It's a little | 有点 |
| 1002 | bit, there is something to be learned from them. | 比特,有 从他们学到的东西。 |
| 1003 | But you can't just take their exact circumstance | 但你不能只考虑他们的真实情况 |
| 1004 | and map it onto yours. | 把它映射到你的地图上 |
| 1005 | The best founders I know, they listen and read to everyone, but then they | 我认识的最好的创始人, 他们倾听和阅读每个人, 但后来他们 |
| 1006 | ignore everybody. | 忽略每个人。 |
| 1007 | And they make up their own mind. | 他们自己决定 |
| 1008 | They have their own internal model of how to apply | 他们有自己的内部模式如何应用 |
| 1009 | things to their situation. | 他们的处境。 |
| 1010 | And they do not hesitate to discard information. | 他们毫不犹豫地丢弃信息。 |
| 1011 | If you survey enough | 如果你调查够了 |
| 1012 | people, all the advice will cancel to zero. | 所有建议都会取消到零 |
| 1013 | So you do have to have your own point of view. | 所以你必须有自己的观点。 |
| 1014 | And when | 什么时候 |
| 1015 | something is sent your way, you have to very quickly decide is that true? | 东西是按你的方式送来的, 你必须迅速决定 这是真的吗? |
| 1016 | Is that true outside | 外面是真的吗? |
| 1017 | of the context of what that person applied it in? | 这个人在什么情况下应用它? |
| 1018 | Is it true in my context? | 我的背景是真的吗? |
| 1019 | And then do I want to | 礛и稱 |
| 1020 | apply it? | 应用它? |
| 1021 | You have to reject most advice, but you have to listen to and read enough of it to know | 你必须拒绝大多数建议, 但你必须听和阅读 足够知道 |
| 1022 | what to reject and what to accept. | 拒绝什么 接受什么 |
| 1023 | Even in this podcast, you should examine everything. | 即使在这个播客,你应该检查一切。 |
| 1024 | If | 若为 |
| 1025 | something does not feel true to you, put it down, set it aside. | 有些事对你并不真实 放下 放下 |
| 1026 | If too many things seem untrue, | 如果太多事情看起来不真实, |
| 1027 | delete this podcast. | 删除此播客 。 |
| 1028 | I think the most dangerous part of taking advice is that the person that | 我认为最危险的部分 接受建议的人 |
| 1029 | gave it to you is not going to be around to tell you when it doesn't apply any longer. | 交给你以后 不会再告诉你了 |
| 1030 | Yeah, I view the purpose of advice as a little different than most people. | 是啊,我认为建议的目的 与大多数人有点不同。 |
| 1031 | I just view it as | 我只是觉得 |
| 1032 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}帮助我写出一些故事和格言 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}后来我就能想起 | |
| 1033 | experience and say, ah, that's what that person meant. | 体验和说,啊,这就是那个人的意思。 |
| 1034 | 90% of my tweets are actually just maxims | 我百分之九十的推文其实只是格言 |
| 1035 | I carved for myself that are then little mental hooks to remind me when I'm in that situation | 我为自己雕刻的,然后是小的 精神钩子来提醒我 当我处于这种情况 |
| 1036 | again. | 再来 |
| 1037 | Like, oh, I'm the one who tweeted, if you can't see yourself working with someone for life, | 喜欢,哦,我是谁的推特, 如果你看不到自己工作 与某人终身, |
| 1038 | then don't work with them for a day. | 那就不要和他们合作一天。 |
| 1039 | So as soon as I know that this person is not going to be | 所以只要我知道这个人不会是 |
| 1040 | someone that I'm going to be working with 10 years from now, then I have to start extricating | 10年后我要和谁合作,然后我要开始解脱 |
| 1041 | myself from that relationship or just not investing that much more effort into it. | 或只是没有投入 更多的努力。 |
| 1042 | So I use my tweets and other people's tweets as maxims that help compress my own learnings | 所以我用我的微博和别人的微博 做为帮助压缩自己学习的格言 |
| 1043 | and be able to recall them. | 并能够召回他们。 |
| 1044 | The brain space is finite, your finite neurons. | 大脑空间是有限的, 你的有限的神经元。 |
| 1045 | So you can almost | 这样你几乎可以 |
| 1046 | think of these as pointers, addresses, mnemonics to help you remember deep-seated principles | 把这些当作指针、地址、示意图 来帮助你记住深层的原则 |
| 1047 | where you have the underlying experience to back it up. | 在那里,你有 潜在的经验支持它。 |
| 1048 | If you don't have the underlying experience, | 如果你没有基本经验 |
| 1049 | then it just reads like a collection of quotes. | 然后,它只是读 像集引文。 |
| 1050 | It's cool, it's inspirational for a moment. | 凉爽,励志一时. |
| 1051 | Maybe | 也许 |
| 1052 | you make a nice poster out of it, but then you forget it and move on. | 你做了一个很好的海报出来, 但你忘了它,继续前进。 |
| 1053 | So all of these are really | 所以这些都是真的 |
| 1054 | compact ways for you to recall your own knowledge. | 让你回忆起自己的知识 |
| 1055 | The last tweet on the topic of working for the long term is that when you're finally wealthy, | 关于长期工作的最后一个推文是 当你终于富有的时候 |
| 1056 | you'll realize that it wasn't what you were seeking in the first place, but that's for another day. | 你会意识到 这不是你最初想要的 但那是另一天 |
| 1057 | That's a multi-hour topic in and of itself. | 这是一个多小时的话题本身。 |
| 1058 | First of all, I just thought it was a really clever way | 首先,我认为这是非常聪明的方法 |
| 1059 | to end the whole thing because it disarms a whole set of people who'd say, well, what's the point | 结束这一切,因为它解除了 一整组人 谁会说,有什么意义 |
| 1060 | of getting rich? | 发财? |
| 1061 | Because there are a lot of people who just like the status signal, virtue signal | 因为很多人都喜欢状态信号,美德信号 |
| 1062 | against the idea of wealth creation or making money. | 反对创造财富或赚钱的想法。 |
| 1063 | So it was just a good way to disarm all | 所以这是解除一切的好办法 |
| 1064 | of them. | 他们。 |
| 1065 | But it's also true in that the things that you really want in life, yes, money will | 但这也是事实,因为你真正想要的东西 在生活中,是的,钱会 |
| 1066 | solve all your money problems, but it doesn't get you everywhere. | 解决你所有的钱问题,但它没有让你无处不在。 |
| 1067 | The first thing you'll realize | 第一件事你会意识到 |
| 1068 | when you've made a bunch of money is that you're still the same person. | 当你赚了一大堆钱时 就是说你还是同一个人 |
| 1069 | If you're happy, you're | 如果你高兴,你就 |
| 1070 | happy. | 快乐 |
| 1071 | If you're unhappy, you're unhappy. | 若不乐者. |
| 1072 | If you're calm and fulfilled and peaceful, | 如果你冷静 满足 和平 |
| 1073 | you're still that same person. | 你还是那个人 |
| 1074 | I know lots of very rich people who are extremely out of shape. | 我认识很多非常富有的人 他们非常的不健全。 |
| 1075 | I know lots of rich people who have really bad family lives. | 我认识很多有钱人 他们的家庭生活非常糟糕。 |
| 1076 | I know lots of rich people who | 我认识很多有钱人 |
| 1077 | are internally a mess. | 内部一片混乱 |
| 1078 | So I would lean on another tweet that I put out, which is actually when I | 所以我会倚靠另一个推特 我发布, 这其实当我 |
| 1079 | think back on it, I think it's my favorite tweet of mine. | 回想起来,我想这是我最喜欢的微博。 |
| 1080 | It's not necessarily the most insightful. | 未必最有见识. |
| 1081 | It's not necessarily the most helpful. | 不一定是最有帮助的 |
| 1082 | It's not even the one I think about the most, but I just, | 这不是我最想的 但我只是 |
| 1083 | when I look at it, there's just such a certain truth in there that it just resonates. | 当我看着它时, 里面有这样一个事实, 它只是共鸣。 |
| 1084 | And that | 还有 |
| 1085 | is that a calm mind, a fit body, and a house full of love, these things cannot be bought. | 一个冷静的头脑, 一个合适的身体, 一个充满爱的房子, 这些东西是买不来的。 |
| 1086 | They must | 他们必须 |
| 1087 | be earned. | 获得。 |
| 1088 | Even if you have all the money in the world, you can't have those three things. | 即使你拥有世界上所有的钱,你也不能拥有这三件事. |
| 1089 | Jeff | 贾夫 |
| 1090 | Bezos still has to work out. | 贝佐斯还得努力 |
| 1091 | He still has to work on his marriage or whatever his next relationship | 他的婚姻和以后的恋情都得解决 |
| 1092 | is. | 没错 |
| 1093 | And his internal mental state is still going to be very much not controlled by external events. | 而他的内心精神状态仍然会非常不受外界事件控制. |
| 1094 | It's going to be based on how calm and peaceful he's inside. | 将以他内心的平静与和平程度为基础. |
| 1095 | So I think those three things, | 所以我认为这三件事, |
| 1096 | your health, your mental health, and your close relationships are things that you have to cultivate | 你的健康,你的精神健康, 和你的亲密关系 这些都是你必须培育的东西 |
| 1097 | and can probably bring you a lot more peace and happiness than any amount of money ever will. | 并且可能给你带来 更多的和平与幸福 比任何数量的钱会。 |
| 1098 | So that's what I meant. | 所以,这就是我的意思。 |
| 1099 | Now, how to get there is actually a tweet storm that I still need to put | 现在,如何到达那里,实际上是一个微博风暴,我仍然需要把 |
| 1100 | out. | 出来。 |
| 1101 | I've been working on it. | 已而修习. |
| 1102 | I have probably a hundred tweets on it. | 我大概有一百条微博 |
| 1103 | It's just very hard to say | 很难说 |
| 1104 | anything on the topic without getting attacked from 50 different directions, especially these days | 任何关于这个话题的话题 都不要受到来自50个不同方向的攻击 尤其是现在 |
| 1105 | (原始内容存档于2019-09-21). at Twitter. | |
| 1106 | So I've been hesitant to do it because I want to target it for a very specific kind of | 所以我一直犹豫不决 因为我想把它瞄准一种非常特别的 |
| 1107 | person. | 个人。 |
| 1108 | There's a bunch of people who don't believe that working on your internal state is useful. | 有一群人不相信在你的内部状态上工作是有用的. |
| 1109 | They're too focused on the external. | 他们太专注于外部。 |
| 1110 | And that's fine. | 没关系 |
| 1111 | There's nothing wrong with that. | 亦无所违. |
| 1112 | They should | 他们应该 |
| 1113 | do that. | 做到这一点。 |
| 1114 | And that's who the how to get rich tweet storm is for. | 这就是如何获得丰富的微博风暴。 |
| 1115 | There's a bunch of people who | 有一帮人 |
| 1116 | believe that the only thing worth working on is complete liberation. | 相信唯一值得努力的是彻底解放 |
| 1117 | Like you become the Buddha | 就像你成为了菩萨 |
| 1118 | and they'll attack anything in the middle as being useless. | 他们会攻击中间的任何东西 作为无用。 |
| 1119 | That's fine too, but most people aren't | 也没关系,但大多数人不是 |
| 1120 | there. | 这里 |
| 1121 | So what I want to do is to create a tweet storm that is just very practical advice for | 所以我想做的是创造一个微博风暴 这仅仅是非常实用的建议 |
| 1122 | everyday people who want to have a calmer internal state, just a set of understandings, | 每天都有人想有一个更平静的内部状态, 只是一套谅解, |
| 1123 | realizations, have truths and truths that if you were to imbibe them properly, and again, | 认识,有真理 和真理,如果你要正确注入, 并且再次, |
| 1124 | these are just pointers to ideas that you already have and experiences that you already have, | 这些只是你已有的想法和经历的指针, |
| 1125 | that if you keep these top of mind, slowly but steadily, it will help you with certain | 如果你保持这些顶端的头脑, 缓慢但稳定, 这将帮助你确定 |
| 1126 | realizations that will lead you to a calmer internal state. | 导致你进入更平静的内部状态 |
| 1127 | That's what I want to work on. | 这就是我想要做的。 |
| 1128 | Fitness is another big one. | 健身是另一个大。 |
| 1129 | I'm just not the expert there. | 我不是那个专家 |
| 1130 | There are plenty of good people | 有很多好人,他们很厉害 |
| 1131 | on Twitter who are better at fitness than me. | 在推特上谁更适合我。 |
| 1132 | And I think loving household and relationships | 我认为爱的家庭和关系 |
| 1133 | actually automatically falls out of the other things. | 其实是自动从其他东西中掉下来的 |
| 1134 | If you have a calm mind and if you've | 如果你有冷静的头脑 如果你有 |
| 1135 | made money, you should have good relationships. | 赚钱,你应该有良好的关系。 |
| 1136 | There's no reason why you shouldn't. | 何故不应. |
| 1137 | A lot of | 许多 |
| 1138 | divorces actually happen over money. | 离婚实际上是为了钱 |
| 1139 | Unfortunately, that's just the reality of it. | 不幸的是,这只是它的现实。 |
| 1140 | So having money | 所以有钱 |
| 1141 | removes that part of it. | 移除这部分。 |
| 1142 | A lot of external battles happen because your internal state is not good. | 经常发生外部战斗,因为你的内部状态不好. |
| 1143 | When you're naturally, internally peaceful, you're going to pick less fights. | 当你自然,内部平静的时候,你会选择较少的战斗. |
| 1144 | You're going to be more | 你会更厉害的 |
| 1145 | loving without expecting anything in return. | 爱而不期望什么回报。 |
| 1146 | And that will take care of things on the external | 这样就能解决外在的问题 |
| 1147 | relationship front. | 关系前沿。 |
| 1148 | So money solves your money problems. | 所以钱能解决你的钱问题 |
| 1149 | Money buys you freedom in the material | 钱给你买材料的自由 |
| 1150 | world. | 这个世界 |
| 1151 | I think that was a tweet from your cutting room floor. | 我认为那是你剪切室的推文 |
| 1152 | And money lets you not do the things | 钱让你不做这些事 |
| 1153 | that you don't want to do. | 你不愿意这样做。 |
| 1154 | Yeah, to me, the ultimate purpose of money is so that you do not | 是啊,对我来说,金钱的最终目的 就是让你不要 |
| 1155 | have to be in a specific place at a specific time doing anything you don't want to do. | 在一个特定的时间 做一些你不想做的事 |
| 1156 | We skipped | 我们跳过 |
| 1157 | one tweet because I wanted to cover all of the tweets on the topic of the long term. | 因为我想涵盖所有关于长期议题的推文。 |
| 1158 | And the | 还有 |
| 1159 | was there are no get rich quick schemes. | 如果没有富裕的快速计划。 |
| 1160 | That's just someone else getting rich off you. | 这只是别人从你身上发财。 |
| 1161 | This goes back to the world being an efficient place. | 这可追溯到世界是一个有效率的地方。 |
| 1162 | If there's an easy way to get rich, | 如果有容易发财的方法 |
| 1163 | it's already been exploited. | 它已经被利用了。 |
| 1164 | And there are a lot of people who will sell you ideas and schemes on | 还有很多人会卖你的想法和计划 |
| 1165 | how to make money. | 如何赚钱。 |
| 1166 | But they're just always selling you some 7995 course, or some audiobook or some | 但他们总是卖你7995个课程, 或者一些音频或一些 |
| 1167 | seminar, which is fine. | 研讨会,没关系。 |
| 1168 | Everyone needs to eat, people need to make a living. | 每个人都需要吃饭,人们需要谋生。 |
| 1169 | They might actually | 他们可能真的 |
| 1170 | have really good tips. | 有很好的小费。 |
| 1171 | But if they're giving you actionable, high quality advice that acknowledges | 但是,如果他们给你 诉讼,高质量的建议,承认 |
| 1172 | that it's a difficult journey and will take a lot of time, then I think that's realistic. | 这是一个艰难的旅程 并且需要很多时间, 那么我认为这是现实的。 |
| 1173 | But if | 不过如果 |
| 1174 | they're selling you some get rich quick scheme, whether it's crypto or whether it's an online | 他们卖给你一些 富有的快速计划, 无论是密码还是在线 |
| 1175 | business or seminar, they're just making money off you. | 生意或研讨会, 他们只是赚你的钱。 |
| 1176 | That's their get rich quick scheme. | 这就是他们的快速计划 |
| 1177 | It's | 这是 |
| 1178 | not going to necessarily work for you. | 不一定会为你工作。 |
| 1179 | One of the things about this whole tweet storm and podcast is | 这整场推特风暴和播客 |
| 1180 | that we don't have ads on here. | 我们这里没有广告 |
| 1181 | We don't charge for anything. | 我们什么都不收 |
| 1182 | We don't sell anything. | 我们不卖任何东西。 |
| 1183 | Not because | 不是因为 |
| 1184 | I don't want to make more money. | 欲不增财. |
| 1185 | It's always nice to make more money. | 常得善财. |
| 1186 | We're doing work here. | 我们在这里工作。 |
| 1187 | But | 不过 |
| 1188 | because it would completely destroy the credibility of the enterprise. | 因为这会彻底破坏企业的信誉 |
| 1189 | If I'm saying, hey, I know how | 如果我说,嘿,我知道如何 |
| 1190 | to get rich and I'm going to sell that to you, it ruins it. | 我打算卖给你,它毁了它。 |
| 1191 | When I was young and I was kind of | 当我年轻的时候,我有点 |
| 1192 | studying up on the topic, one of my favorite books on the topic was actually called How to Get Rich | 研究这个话题 我最喜欢的一本关于这个话题的书 叫做"如何获得里奇" |
| 1193 | by Felix Dennis, the founder of Maxim magazine, billionaire who passed away. | 由马克西姆杂志的创始人,逝世的亿万富翁费利克斯·丹尼斯(Felix Dennis)创作. |
| 1194 | And he had a lot of | 他有很多东西 |
| 1195 | crazy stuff in there, but he had some really good insights too. | 里面有些疯狂的东西 但他也有很深的见解 |
| 1196 | But whenever I read something by him | 但每当我读到他的东西 |
| 1197 | 或者由GoDaddy创始人Bob Parsons或者说Andrew 卡内基, 你读的人的东西 | |
| 1198 | are already very wealthy and they've clearly made their wealth in other fields, not by selling the | 他们已经非常富有了 而且他们显然已经在其他领域创造了财富 而不是通过出售 |
| 1199 | how to get rich line. | 如何得富贵行. |
| 1200 | They have credibility. | 他们有信誉。 |
| 1201 | You just trust them and they're not trying to make | 你只要相信他们,他们不会 |
| 1202 | money off of you. | 从你身上拿钱 |
| 1203 | They are obviously trying to win some status and some ego, right? | 他们显然试图赢得一些地位和一些自负,对不对? |
| 1204 | You always have | 你总是这样 |
| 1205 | to have a motivation for doing something. | 有动机做一些事情。 |
| 1206 | But at least that is a cleaner reason why they're probably | 但至少这是一个更清洁的原因 他们可能 |
| 1207 | not lying. | 没有说谎。 |
| 1208 | They're probably not fooling you. | 他们可能不会骗你的 |
| 1209 | They're not snowing you. | 他们不会下雪的 |
| 1210 | At some level, every | 在某些层面, |
| 1211 | founder has to lie to every employee of the company that they have where they have to convince them | 创始人必须欺骗公司的每个员工 他们有他们必须说服他们的地方 |
| 1212 | that it's better for you to work for me than is to do what I did and go work for yourself. | 你为我工作胜过做我做的事 为自己工作 |
| 1213 | So I've always had a hard time with that, which is why the only honest with in my companies, | 所以我一直很难接受 这就是为什么我公司里唯一诚实的人 |
| 1214 | I've recruited entrepreneurs and I tell them you're going to get to be entrepreneurial in this | 我招了企业家,我告诉他们你会在这件事上创业 |
| 1215 | company. | 连队。 |
| 1216 | And the day you're ready to go start your own next thing, I'm going to support you. | 等你准备好开始下一步工作时 我会支持你的 |
| 1217 | I'm never going to get in the way of you starting a company, but this can be a good place for you | 我绝不会妨碍你开公司 但这里对你有好处 |
| 1218 | to learn how to build a good team and build a good culture, how to find product market fit to | 学习如何建立良好的团队和建立良好的文化,如何找到适合的产品市场 |
| 1219 | perfect your skills and meet some amazing people while you figure out exactly what is going to do | 完善你的技能,遇到一些令人惊奇的人 同时,你找出 到底要做什么 |
| 1220 | because positioning, timing, deliberation are very important when starting a company. | 因为成立公司时 定位、时机和考虑非常重要 |
| 1221 | But what I've | 但我所拥有 |
| 1222 | never been able to do is look them in the face and say, you must be at your desk by 8 a.m. because | 永远无法做到的就是看着他们的脸 说,你必须在早上8点前到桌子 |
| 1223 | I'm not going to be at my desk by 8 a.m. | 我不会在早上8点前到办公桌 |
| 1224 | I want my freedom or say to them that you're great at | 我想要我的自由 或者告诉他们你很棒 |
| 1225 | being a director today and you'll be a VP tomorrow, you know, putting them into that career path track | 今天当导演 明天你就会当副总裁 让他们进入职业轨道 |
| 1226 | because I don't believe in it myself. | 因为我不相信它自己。 |
| 1227 | If anyone is giving advice on how to get rich and they're also | 如果有人建议怎样发财,他们也会发财 |
| 1228 | making money off of it, they should have made their money elsewhere. | 他们应该从别的地方挣钱 |
| 1229 | Like you don't want to learn how | 就像你不想学 |
| 1230 | to be fit from a fat person. | 从胖子身上得到的 |
| 1231 | You don't want to learn how to be happy from a depressed person. | 你不想从一个郁闷的人身上学到如何快乐. |
| 1232 | So you don't want to learn how to be rich from a poor person, but you also don't want to learn | 所以你不想从穷人那里学钱 但你也不想学 |
| 1233 | how to be rich from somebody who makes their money by telling people how to be rich. | 如何从一个有钱人那里发财 通过告诉人们如何发财。 |
| 1234 | It's suspect. | 谓疑. |
| 1235 | Anytime you see somebody who's actually gotten rich following some guru's advice on getting rich, | 每当你看到有人 谁真的发财 根据一些大师的建议发财, |
| 1236 | just remember that in any random process, if you run it long enough and if enough people | 只要记住,在任何随机过程, 如果你运行它足够长,如果有足够的人 |
| 1237 | participate in it, you will always get every single possible outcome with probability one. | 参与其中,你总是得到每个可能的结果 概率之一。 |
| 1238 | There's a lot of random error in there and then also this is why you have to absolutely and | 里面有很多随机错误 这也是你必须绝对 |
| 1239 | completely ignore business journalists and economist academics when they talk about private | 完全无视商业记者 和经济学家学者 当他们谈论私人 |
| 1240 | companies. | 企业。 |
| 1241 | I won't even name names, but like when a famous economist rails on Bitcoin | 我不会给名字起名,但当一个著名的经济学家在比特币上 |
| 1242 | or when a business journalist attacks the latest company that's IPO-ing, it's complete nonsense. | 或者当一个商业记者攻击最新的IPO -ing公司时 这完全是胡说八道 |
| 1243 | Those people have never built anything. | 那些人从来没有建造过任何东西。 |
| 1244 | They're professional critics. | 他们是专业的批评家. |
| 1245 | They don't know anything | 他们什么都不知道 |
| 1246 | about making money. | 关于赚钱。 |
| 1247 | All they know is how to criticize and get page views and you're literally | 他们只知道如何批评和获取页面浏览 你字面上 |
| 1248 | becoming dumber by reading them. | 读起来就更蠢了 |
| 1249 | You're burning neurons. | 你在烧神经元 |
| 1250 | I'll leave you with a quote from Nassim | 我留一句纳西姆的话给你 |
| 1251 | Taleb that I liked where he said, if you want to be a philosopher king, first become a king and then | 塔列布我喜欢他所说的, 如果你想成为一位哲学家的国王, 首先成为一个国王,然后 |
| 1252 | a philosopher, not first become a philosopher and then become a king. | 哲学家,不是先成为哲学家,然后成为国王. |
| 1253 | I'm glad you brought up Taleb because I was going to finish this by saying just remember | 我很高兴你提起塔莱布 因为我要说 记住 |
| 1254 | the title of his first book, which is Fooled by Randomness. | 他的第一本书的标题 被随机所愚弄 |
| 1255 | One of the reasons why we're a little vague in this podcast is because we're trying to | 我们这个播客有点模糊的原因之一 是因为我们试图 |
| 1256 | lay down principles that are timeless as opposed to just giving you the winning | 规定永恒的原则 而不是只给你胜利 |
| 1257 | lottery ticket numbers from yesterday. | 昨天的彩票号码 |
| 1258 | You summarized this entire tweet storm | 你总结了整个推特风暴 |
| 1259 | with two words, productize yourself. | 用两个字, 生产自己。 |
| 1260 | Productize and yourself. | 制作和你自己。 |
| 1261 | Yourself has uniqueness. | 你拥有独特的性格 |
| 1262 | Productize has leverage. | 产品化有影响力。 |
| 1263 | Yourself has | 你们自己有 |
| 1264 | accountability. | 问责制。 |
| 1265 | Productize has specific knowledge. | 产品化具有特殊知识. |
| 1266 | Yourself also has specific knowledge in there. | 你们自己也有专门的知识 |
| 1267 | So all of these pieces, you can combine them into these two words. | 所以,所有这些片段,你可以把它们合并成这两个词. |
| 1268 | Whenever you're doing | 每当你这样做 |
| 1269 | anything in business, if you're looking towards the long term of getting wealthy, | 任何生意上的事情,如果你想着 长期致富, |
| 1270 | you should ask yourself, is this authentic to me? | 你应该问问你自己, 这对我来说是真的吗? |
| 1271 | Is it myself that I am projecting? | 是我在投影吗? |
| 1272 | And then am I productizing it? | 然后我要制作它吗? |
| 1273 | Am I scaling it? | 我缩放了吗? |
| 1274 | Am I scaling with labor or with capital | 我是用劳动力还是用资本 |
| 1275 | or with code or with media? | 还是用密码或媒体? |
| 1276 | So it's a very handy, simple mnemonic. | 所以这是一个非常手巧,简单的记忆。 |
| 1277 | I mean, what is this podcast? | 我的意思是,这播客是什么? |
| 1278 | This is a podcast called Naval. | 这个播客叫海军 |
| 1279 | I'm literally | 我从字面上 |
| 1280 | productizing myself with a podcast. | 用播客制作自己 |
| 1281 | You want to figure out what you're | 你想知道你是谁 |
| 1282 | uniquely good at or what you uniquely are and apply as much leverage as possible. | 独具一格或你独具一格 并尽可能发挥杠杆作用 |
| 1283 | So making money isn't even something you do. | 所以赚钱根本不是你的工作 |
| 1284 | It's not a skill. | 这不是一个技能。 |
| 1285 | It's who you are stamped out | 是你被干掉的那个人 |
| 1286 | a million times. | 百万遍经. |
| 1287 | Making money should be a function of | 赚钱应该是 |
| 1288 | your identity and what you like to do. | 你的身份和喜欢做的事 |
| 1289 | Another tweet that I really liked was this was not mine. | 我很喜欢的另外一个推特 不是我的 |
| 1290 | Somebody else put this up. | 别人放的 |
| 1291 | They said, find three hobbies. | 他们说,找三个爱好。 |
| 1292 | One that makes you money, | 一个让你赚钱的 |
| 1293 | one that keeps you fit and one that makes you creative. | 保持你的身材 让你有创造力 |
| 1294 | I would change that slightly. | 我会稍微改变这一点。 |
| 1295 | So I would say one that makes you money, one that makes you fit and one that makes you smarter. | 所以我要说一个让你赚钱, 一个让你适合,一个让你更聪明。 |
| 1296 | So in my case, my hobbies would be reading, making money. | 所以我的爱好是读书赚钱 |
| 1297 | I love working with startups, | 我喜欢和创业者合作 |
| 1298 | either investing in them, brainstorming them, starting them. | 或投资于他们,或集思广益,或开始于他们。 |
| 1299 | I just love that ideation and | 我只是喜欢这个想法和 |
| 1300 | initial creation phase around startups. | 初始创建阶段围绕创业. |
| 1301 | And then on the hobby that keeps you fit, | 然后,在你的爱好 保持你适合, |
| 1302 | I don't really have one. | 我真的没有 |
| 1303 | The closest thing I have is yoga, but that's where I fell apart. | 我最亲近的就是瑜伽,但这就是我崩溃的地方. |
| 1304 | And I think people who early in life discover something like surfing or swimming or tennis or | 我想人们在早期发现 比如冲浪、游泳、网球 |
| 1305 | some sport that they continue doing throughout most of their life are very lucky because they | 他们一生大部分时间都在做一些运动 因为他们很幸运 |
| 1306 | have a hobby that will make them fit. | 有个能让他们适应的爱好 |
| 1307 | We finished discussing the tweet storm and | 我们讨论完推特风暴和 |
| 1308 | we're going to spend some time on Q&A and discussing some of the tweets on the cutting | 讨论一些关于剪切的微博 |
| 1309 | room floor that didn't make it into the tweet storm. | 房间地板没有进入微博风暴。 |
| 1310 | My first question is, do you think there | 我的第一个问题是, 你觉得那里 |
| 1311 | are some common failure modes or typical things that people do wrong when they're trying to apply | 是一些常见的失败模式 或典型的事物 人们在尝试应用时做错了 |
| 1312 | this advice? | 这个建议? |
| 1313 | A lot of people don't understand what specific knowledge really is or how to | 很多人不明白什么是 具体的知识,或如何 |
| 1314 | obtain it. | 获取它。 |
| 1315 | People don't understand what accountability really entails. | 人们不明白责任到底意味着什么。 |
| 1316 | They think | 他们觉得 |
| 1317 | that accountability means being successfully accountable. | 问责制意味着成功地实行问责制。 |
| 1318 | No, it means that you have to | 不,这意味着你必须 |
| 1319 | stick your neck out and fail with your name out there publicly and be willing to let people hate | 把你的脖子伸出去,失败 你的名字在那里公开 并愿意让人们恨 |
| 1320 | on you. | 对你。 |
| 1321 | One of the reasons I'm less active in Twitter lately is because every tweet summons | 最近我在推特上不太活跃的原因之一 就是每个推特传票 |
| 1322 | an army of nitpickers and haters and it gets exhausting. | 一群挑刺者和仇恨者的军队 变得疲惫不堪 |
| 1323 | But on the other hand, you have to | 但另一方面,你必须 |
| 1324 | learn how to ignore them. | 学会如何忽略他们。 |
| 1325 | Otherwise you can't survive on Twitter. | 否则你无法在Twitter上生存. |
| 1326 | A lot of people try to | 很多人试图 |
| 1327 | reconcile it with like, should I quit my nine-to-five job or not? | 我是不是应该辞掉九比五的工作? |
| 1328 | That can be a very | 这可能是非常 |
| 1329 | hard decision. | 很难决定 |
| 1330 | I don't think you need to go that extreme. | 我不认为你需要去那么极端。 |
| 1331 | You can start applying accountability | 你可以开始实行问责制 |
| 1332 | and leverage and specific knowledge even within your existing career. | 并运用和特定知识 即使在你现有的职业生涯。 |
| 1333 | It doesn't have to necessarily | 没必要 |
| 1334 | be fork off and do something else completely. | 叉开,做点别的 |
| 1335 | A lot of people will use it as a way to agree | 很多人会用它来表示同意 |
| 1336 | and disagree with their existing biases. | 并不同意他们现有的偏见。 |
| 1337 | They'll say, oh yeah, I agree with that part or that part | 他们会说,哦,是的,我同意那部分或那部分 |
| 1338 | you're completely wrong. They'll say, oh yeah, I agree with that part or that part you're completely wrong. | 你完全错了。 他们会说,哦,是的,我同意你完全错误的那部分。 |
| 1339 | the most interesting parts should be the ones that you disagree with, because clearly | 最有趣的部分应该是你不同意的部分 因为很明显 |
| 1340 | I've proven that I know a few things. | 我已经证明我知道一些事情。 |
| 1341 | So if you disagree with it, | 如果你不同意的话 |
| 1342 | then maybe that is an area where you can improve your thinking. | 或许那是你可以改善思维的领域 |
| 1343 | I definitely improve my thinking all the time, but I will tell you that in this tweet storm, | 但我会告诉你 在这场微博风暴中 |
| 1344 | I put down the minimum viable principles. | 我放下了最低可行的原则。 |
| 1345 | I did not put down the whole universe of what I know | 我没有放下我所知道的宇宙 |
| 1346 | about how to make money, because 90% of it is suspect. | 如何赚钱, 因为90%是可疑的。 |
| 1347 | I put down the bedrock, the stuff that | 我放下了基岩,那些东西 |
| 1348 | I'm pretty solidly sure about. | 我非常肯定这一点。 |
| 1349 | And I have not yet seen a tweet that has successfully contradicted | 我还没有看到一个微博 已经成功矛盾 |
| 1350 | anything in this tweet storm. | 在微博暴风雨中的任何内容。 |
| 1351 | That would cause me to say, oh yeah, I got that one wrong. | 那会让我说 我搞错了 |
| 1352 | I think another place where people get a little bit off is they look at this and they say, well, | 我认为另一个地方 人们得到一点点下来是 他们看看这个 他们说,嗯, |
| 1353 | this only applies to tech entrepreneurs. | 这仅适用于技术企业家。 |
| 1354 | I disagree. | 我不同意这个观点。 |
| 1355 | The example that I gave about | 我给的榜样 |
| 1356 | real estate was a good one in that regard. | 在这方面,房地产是一件好事。 |
| 1357 | It's just the nature of leverage that technology | 利用技术的本质 |
| 1358 | drives leverage. | 驱动杠杆。 |
| 1359 | So I'm going to push you in a tech direction to get the free leverage that | 所以我要把你推向技术方向 以获得自由的杠杆 |
| 1360 | is available in tech. | 以技术形式提供。 |
| 1361 | And obviously this message is being delivered through the internet, | 显然,这个信息正在通过互联网传递, |
| 1362 | so it's going to have a pro internet bias. | 因此,它会有一个 支持互联网的偏见。 |
| 1363 | There are also people who believe that is unfair | 也有人认为不公平 |
| 1364 | to the people who don't have these opportunities to do anything with the opportunities that they | 给那些没有这些机会 做任何事情的人 |
| 1365 | do have. | 确实 |
| 1366 | Will that defeatist attitude? | 那种失败主义的态度会吗? |
| 1367 | Why even get out of bed in the morning? | 为什么早上起床? |
| 1368 | 90% of people are | 90%的人是 |
| 1369 | dead. | 已经死了。 |
| 1370 | There's a lot of people who are living at a dollar a day. | 日以一钱为生者甚众. |
| 1371 | Do you live in a dollar a day? | 你每天住一美元吗? |
| 1372 | No, | 没有 |
| 1373 | it's up to you to play the hand that you're dealt to the best of your ability. | 由你来操控你的能力 |
| 1374 | And then you | 还有你 |
| 1375 | can take the winnings, the pot from that hand and do whatever you want with it to fix the world. | 能取胜者,从手取壶,随其所欲,以修天下. |
| 1376 | But saying that you should not do things just because others can't do things is living in | 但说你不应该做一些事情 只是因为别人不能做一些事情 |
| 1377 | denial. | 否认。 |
| 1378 | It's an excuse to not do anything. | 以无所为为故. |
| 1379 | There are also people who believe that wealth creation | 也有人认为创造财富 |
| 1380 | is fundamentally at odds with an environmentally safe and healthy planet. | 从根本上讲,这与一个环境安全和健康的星球是背道而驰的。 |
| 1381 | And they view the whole | 他们看待整个 |
| 1382 | thing as a giant zero-sum game. | 是一个巨大的零和游戏。 |
| 1383 | That's a false narrative as well. | 那也是个虚假的叙事 |
| 1384 | Elon Musk is not playing a | 伊隆·穆斯克不是在玩游戏 |
| 1385 | zero-sum game with the environment, and there are plenty of entrepreneurs who are not. | 环境零和游戏, 有很多企业家没有。 |
| 1386 | If anything, | 如果有的话 |
| 1387 | there is a word that environmentalists love, which is sustainability. | 有一句话是环保主义者喜欢的,那就是可持续性。 |
| 1388 | And for-profit businesses are | 营利性企业是 |
| 1389 | at least financially sustainable, if nothing else. | 至少在财政上是可持续的,即使没有别的。 |
| 1390 | You can do a B Corp, which has a dual mission. | 你可以做一个有双重使命的B公司。 |
| 1391 | A lot of non-profit efforts would actually be better served by for-profit companies, | 许多非营利性的努力实际上会得到盈利公司更好的服务, |
| 1392 | because then they wouldn't have to go begging for grants all the time. | 因为那样他们就不用整天去乞讨赠款了 |
| 1393 | They would be financially | 他们将财政 |
| 1394 | sustainable. | 可持续。 |
| 1395 | Some great founders realize their philanthropic visions by running a business. | 一些伟大的创始人通过经营企业来实现他们的慈善愿景. |
| 1396 | Who is this advice targeted to? | 这个建议针对谁? |
| 1397 | Is it for my Lyft driver? | 是给莱夫特司机的吗? |
| 1398 | Is it for an internet entrepreneur? | 是给互联网企业家的吗? |
| 1399 | Is it for somebody who wants to start a YouTube channel? | 是给想开YouTube频道的人的吗? |
| 1400 | Because it comes from someone who's steeped in Silicon Valley and tech companies, it's always | 因为它来自一个在硅谷 和技术公司陡峭的人,它总是 |
| 1401 | going to have a bias towards that. | 会有偏见的 |
| 1402 | But I think it's good for anybody who wants to be entrepreneurial, | 但我觉得这对想创业的人有好处 |
| 1403 | anybody who wants to control their own life, anybody who wants to deterministically and | 任何想控制自己生活的人 任何想决定 |
| 1404 | reliably improve their ability to create wealth over time, is patient and looking in for the | 可靠地提高他们创造财富的能力 耐心地寻找 |
| 1405 | long haul. | 长途跋涉。 |
| 1406 | Certainly, if you're 80 years old, retired, running out of energy, you should | 当然,如果你是80岁,退休, 能源耗尽,你应该 |
| 1407 | probably just stay retired. | 也许只是保持退休。 |
| 1408 | But there are 80-year-olds who have a lot of energy and | 但有80岁的孩子 精力充沛 |
| 1409 | want to do new things and live for the future. | 想要做新的事情,为未来而活。 |
| 1410 | It can obviously apply very easily to a young person, | 它显然很容易适用于年轻人, |
| 1411 | I would say 9, 10 years old and up. | 我会说9,10岁了。 |
| 1412 | The most difficult one is probably middle-aged because | 最困难的可能是中年 |
| 1413 | when we're in our 30s, 40s, 50s, we already have a lot invested. | 当我们进入30,40,50年代时,我们已经投入了很多资金. |
| 1414 | We have a lot of obligations | 我们有很多义务 |
| 1415 | because those are the years where we're earning and people are relying upon us. | 因为这是我们挣钱的年代 人们依赖我们 |
| 1416 | We don't want to change because we don't want to admit defeat in what we've been doing to date. | 我们不想改变,因为我们不想承认我们迄今所做的一切失败. |
| 1417 | But that's where it can actually be the most fruitful. | 但这正是它能真正取得最大成果的地方。 |
| 1418 | It may be the most difficult pivot. | 这可能是最困难的支柱。 |
| 1419 | You have a nine-to-five job, you have a family relying upon you. | 有九至五职,有眷属. |
| 1420 | And so it may seem like the | 所以它可能看起来像 |
| 1421 | things in this podcast are far too idealistic, but maybe it can inform your weekend projects. | 播客的节目太理想化了 但也许可以为周末的项目提供资讯 |
| 1422 | Maybe it can inform your self-re-education that you do at night on the internet. | 也许它可以告诉你的自我再教育 你晚上在互联网上做。 |
| 1423 | Maybe it can | 也许可以 |
| 1424 | inform what roles you take on in the company that you're at because they move you closer and closer | 通知你在公司里扮演什么角色 因为他们让你越来越接近 |
| 1425 | to points of leverage, points of judgment, or points where you're naturally good at and | 判断点 或者你自然擅长 |
| 1426 | you're authentic. | 你是真实的。 |
| 1427 | It might cause you to take on more accountability. | 这可能让你承担更多的责任。 |
| 1428 | Even applied piece meals, | 即使是应用的零食, |
| 1429 | these principles can directionally guide you regardless of what stage you are at in life | 这些原则可以指导你,不管你处于什么阶段 |
| 1430 | and if you're in retirement, just test them to see if they're true and then teach them to your kids | 如果你在退休,只是测试他们 看他们是否是真的,然后教给你的孩子 |
| 1431 | or your grandkids. | 或你的孙子。 |
| 1432 | There's many different ways to participate. | 参与的方式多种多样. |
| 1433 | It should really apply to almost | 它应该真正适用于几乎 |
| 1434 | everybody who has a complete body, sound mind, and is looking to work. | 所有身体完整,头脑健全, 并正在寻找工作。 |
| 1435 | I think one way to apply | 我想用一个方法 |
| 1436 | the advice is to look at who is getting the leverage off of the work that you're doing. | 我们的建议是 看看谁能从你的工作中得到好处 |
| 1437 | Look up the value chain. | 从价值链上看 |
| 1438 | Look at who's above you and who's above them and see how they are | 看看谁在你上面,谁在他们上面,看看他们是如何 |
| 1439 | taking advantage of the time and the work that you're doing and how they're applying leverage to | 利用你的时间和工作 他们如何运用杠杆 |
| 1440 | it. | 这个 |
| 1441 | People do that naturally in that they want to move up the corporate ladder, but that's mostly | 人们这样做是自然的,因为他们想 升上企业阶梯, 但大多数 |
| 1442 | about managing other people. | 关于管理别人。 |
| 1443 | What you really want to be doing is managing more capital, | 你真的想做的是管理更多的资本 |
| 1444 | products, media, and community. | 产品、媒体和社区。 |
| 1445 | People think about moving up the ladder in their organization, | 人们在组织里想着升上阶梯 |
| 1446 | but they don't think that often about moving to a different organization or creating their | 但他们并不认为 经常是搬到另一个组织 或创建他们的 |
| 1447 | organization to get more leverage. | 提高组织影响力。 |
| 1448 | In general, Ceteris Paribus, fancy Latin words for all other | 一般来说,Ceteris Paribus, 华丽的拉丁语单词所有其他 |
| 1449 | things equal, you will do better in a smaller organization than a larger one. | 平等的事情,你会做 在一个小的组织比一个大。 |
| 1450 | You will have | 你会有 |
| 1451 | more accountability. | 增强问责制。 |
| 1452 | It'll be more visible. | 将更可见. |
| 1453 | You are more likely to be able to try on multiple things | 你更可能尝试很多事情 |
| 1454 | to find out the thing that you are uniquely good at. | 找出你最擅长的东西 |
| 1455 | People are more likely to give you leverage | 人们更可能给你影响力 |
| 1456 | through battlefield promotions. | 通过战场晋升。 |
| 1457 | You're going to have more flexibility. | 你会有更多的灵活性。 |
| 1458 | There'll be more authenticity | 会有更多真实性 |
| 1459 | to how the company operates. | 公司如何运作。 |
| 1460 | A good progression for careers start out in a large company and then | 事业的好进展 开始在一个大公司 然后 |
| 1461 | progressively move to smaller and smaller ones. | 逐步转向较小的。 |
| 1462 | It's very hard to go from a small company to | 从一家小公司到 |
| 1463 | work in a larger company. | 在一个更大的公司工作。 |
| 1464 | Larger companies tend to be more about politics and less about merit. | 较大的公司往往更注重政治,较少注重功绩. |
| 1465 | They're more stable, but they're less innovative situations. | 它们比较稳定,但创新情况较少. |
| 1466 | The goal long term is if we are all | 长远目标是如果我们都是 |
| 1467 | wealthy is that we're all working for ourselves and the people who are working for us are essentially | 有钱的是我们都为自己工作 而为我们工作的人基本上是 |
| 1468 | robots. | 机械人。 |
| 1469 | Today that's software robots in data centers executing code. | 今天,这是软件机器人 在数据中心执行代码。 |
| 1470 | Tomorrow it could be | 明天也许 |
| 1471 | delivery bots, flying bots, mechanical bots that are carrying things around. | 送货箱,飞箱,机械箱 东西在周围。 |
| 1472 | This goes back to this | 这又回到这个 |
| 1473 | idea of the best relationships are peer relationships. | 最佳关系的概念是同伴关系。 |
| 1474 | If there's someone above you, then that's someone | 如果有人在你上面,那那就是那个人 |
| 1475 | to learn from. | 从中学习。 |
| 1476 | If you're not learning from them and improving, then there shouldn't be anybody above | 如果你没有从他们那里学习和进步, 那么不应该有任何人以上 |
| 1477 | you. | 你们 |
| 1478 | If there's somebody below you, it's because you're teaching them and enabling them. | 如果有人在你下面, 这是因为你正在教他们 并赋予他们。 |
| 1479 | If you're | 如果你喜欢 |
| 1480 | not teaching them and enabling them, then get a robot underneath. | 而不是教他们 并赋予他们, 然后得到一个机器人在下面。 |
| 1481 | You don't need a human being | 你不需要一个人 |
| 1482 | below you. | 在你脚下 |
| 1483 | This is utopian and it's long ways off, but in the not too distant future, anybody who | 这是乌托邦式的 距离很远 但在不远的将来 任何人 |
| 1484 | wants to work for themselves will be able to work for themselves. | 想为自己工作 就能为自己工作 |
| 1485 | You may have to make other | 你可能得做别的 |
| 1486 | sacrifices. | 牺牲 |
| 1487 | You may have to take on more risk. | 你可能必须承担更多的风险。 |
| 1488 | You may have to take on more accountability. | 你也许必须承担更多的责任。 |
| 1489 | You may have less steady income, but more and more I think the younger generation is realizing | 你的收入可能不太稳定 但我觉得年轻一代越来越意识到 |
| 1490 | that if they're going to work, they're going to work for themselves. | 如果他们要工作,他们会为自己工作。 |
| 1491 | In one of your tweets, | 在你的推特上, |
| 1492 | you listed out some of the things you should study like programming, sales, reading, writing, | 你列出了一些你应该研究的东西 比如编程,销售,阅读,写作, |
| 1493 | arithmetic. | 算术. |
| 1494 | One of the items that ended up on the cutting room floor was that you should also study | 最后在剪切室地板上的物品之一是 你也该学习 |
| 1495 | ethics. | 伦理。 |
| 1496 | I was originally going to put that out there as a concession to people who believe that | 我原本打算把这件事 说成是对那些相信 |
| 1497 | making money is evil and that the only way to make it is evil. | 赚钱是邪恶的,而唯一的方法就是制造邪恶。 |
| 1498 | But then I realized ethics is not | 但后来我意识到道德不是 |
| 1499 | necessarily something you study. | 一定是你研究过的东西 |
| 1500 | It's something you think about and it's something you do. | 这是你所想的 也是你所做的事 |
| 1501 | Every | 每个 |
| 1502 | of us has a personal moral code and where you got that moral code from is different for everybody. | 我们有一个个人道德规范 你从哪里得到的道德规范 对每个人都不同 |
| 1503 | It's not like I can point you to a textbook. | 我又不是指给你看教科书 |
| 1504 | Sure, I could point you some Roman and Greek text, | 当然,我可以告诉你一些罗马和希腊文本, |
| 1505 | but that's not going to certainly make you ethical. | 但这不会肯定 让你道德。 |
| 1506 | There's the golden rule, do unto others as you | 有黄金规则,做别人像你一样 |
| 1507 | would have them do unto you. | 会让他们对你做。 |
| 1508 | There's Nassim Taleb's silver rule, which is don't do unto others what | 纳西姆·塔莱布的银法则 就是别对别人做什么 |
| 1509 | you don't want them doing unto you. | 你不希望他们对你做。 |
| 1510 | Once you've been in business long enough, you will realize how | 一旦你做生意的时间足够长 你会意识到 |
| 1511 | much of business is about trust. | 大部分生意都是为了信任 |
| 1512 | It's about trust because you want to compound interest. | 这是关于信任 因为你想增加兴趣。 |
| 1513 | You want to | 你想这样 |
| 1514 | be able to work for long periods of time with trustworthy people without having to reevaluate | 能够长期与值得信赖的人一起工作,而无需重新评估 |
| 1515 | every discussion, without having to rethink each time, and without having to constantly look over | 每一次讨论, 不必每次重新思考, 也不必不断回顾 |
| 1516 | your shoulder. | 你的肩膀,你的双肩。 |
| 1517 | Over time, you gravitate towards working with certain kinds of people. | 随着时间的推移,你引领 与某些类型的人合作。 |
| 1518 | Similarly, | 同样, |
| 1519 | those people will gravitate towards working with other ethical people. | 这些人将引领 与其他道德的人合作。 |
| 1520 | Being ethical turns out to | 道德证明 |
| 1521 | be a selfish imperative. | 做个自私的人 |
| 1522 | You want to be ethical because it attracts the other long-term players | 你想道德,因为它吸引其他长期玩家 |
| 1523 | in the network, and then they want to do business with you. | 然后他们想和你做生意 |
| 1524 | If you build a good enough reputation | 如果你能创造出足够好的声誉 |
| 1525 | for being ethical, eventually people will pay you just to do deals through you because you're | 因为道德,最终人们会付钱给你 只是做交易通过你 因为你是 |
| 1526 | the one who will validate and ensure the deals by your presence because you wouldn't be involved | 由你在场来确认和保证交易的人 因为你不会参与 |
| 1527 | with low-quality stuff. | 与低质量的东西。 |
| 1528 | Being ethical actually pays off in the long run, but it's the very long | 从长远来看,道德是有好处的,但是很长一段时间 |
| 1529 | run. | 运行。 |
| 1530 | In the short run, being unethical pays off, which is why so many people go for it. | 从短期来看,不道德是有好处的,这就是为什么这么多人去追求它。 |
| 1531 | It's a | 这是一个 |
| 1532 | greedy algorithm, but you can be ethical simply because you're long-term greedy. | 贪婪的算法,但你仅仅因为长期贪婪,就可以道德. |
| 1533 | I can even outline | 我甚至可以提纲 |
| 1534 | framework for different parts of so-called ethics just based on the idea of long-term selfishness. | 所谓道德准则的不同部分的框架只是基于长期自私的思想。 |
| 1535 | For example, you want to be honest because it leaves you with a clear mind. | 例如,你想诚实,因为它让你有一个清晰的头脑. |
| 1536 | You don't have | 你没有 |
| 1537 | two threads running in your head. | 头上有两根线 |
| 1538 | One is the lies that you told you to keep track of, and the other | 一个是你告诉你要跟踪的谎言 另一个是 |
| 1539 | one is what you're saying. | 一是你说的。 |
| 1540 | You just have to think about one thing at a time so you have more energy | 你只需要一次考虑一件事 这样你就更有活力了 |
| 1541 | to think about that thing, so you're a clearer thinker. | 想想那东西, 所以你是一个更清晰的思想家。 |
| 1542 | Also, by being honest, you're rejecting | 而且,说实话,你拒绝 |
| 1543 | the people who only want to hear the pretty lies, so you force those people out of your network. | 那些只想要听到漂亮谎言的人 所以你就强迫那些人退出你的网络 |
| 1544 | Sometimes it's painful like friends and family, but long-term you create room for the people who | 有时会像朋友和家人一样痛苦 但长期来说 你为那些 |
| 1545 | like you exactly the way that you are. | 就像你一样 |
| 1546 | That is a selfish reason to be honest. | 这是诚实的自私理由。 |
| 1547 | For example, | 举例来说, |
| 1548 | in negotiations, if you're the kind of person who always tries to get the best deal for yourself, | 在谈判中,如果你是那种 总是试图为自己得到最好的交易的人, |
| 1549 | you will win a lot of very early deals and it'll feel very good. | 你会赢得很多很早的交易 感觉会很好 |
| 1550 | On the other hand, there are a | 另一方面,有一个 |
| 1551 | few people who will recognize that you're always scrabbling and not acting fairly, and they will | 很少有人会承认 你总是在乱打乱闹 并且不公道,他们会 |
| 1552 | avoid you. | 避开你。 |
| 1553 | Over time, those people end up being the deal makers in the network because people go | 随着时间的推移,那些人最终成为网络中的交易商 因为人们去 |
| 1554 | to them for a fair shake or to figure out what's fair. | 以示公平,或辨别公平。 |
| 1555 | If you are cutting people fair deals, you | 如果你在裁员 公平交易,你 |
| 1556 | don't get paid in the short term, but in the long term everybody wants to deal with you and you end | 不要在短期内得到报酬, 但从长远来看,每个人都想 处理你,你结束了 |
| 1557 | up being a market hub. | 成为一个市场枢纽。 |
| 1558 | You have more information, you have trust, you have reputation, and people | 你有更多的信息,你有信任, 你有名声,还有人 |
| 1559 | end up doing deals through you. | 最后通过你做交易。 |
| 1560 | A lot of wisdom is just realizing the long-term consequences of | 很多智慧只是认识到了 长期的后果 |
| 1561 | your actions. | 你的行为。 |
| 1562 | The longer term you're willing to look, the wiser that you're going to seem to | 越长的时期你愿意看, 你似乎会更聪明 |
| 1563 | around you. | 环绕着你 |
| 1564 | Do you want to tell us about some of the jobs that you had as a youth and the specific | 你想告诉我们你年轻时的一些工作吗? |
| 1565 | job that kicked off your fanatical obsession with creating wealth? | 让你疯狂地沉迷于创造财富的工作? |
| 1566 | This gets a little personal and | 这变得有点私人和 |
| 1567 | I don't want to do the humble brag thing. | 我不想做谦卑的吹嘘 |
| 1568 | There was some thread going around on Twitter about | 推特上有些线索 |
| 1569 | name five jobs you've held and every rich person on there was trying to signal how they held normal | 说出你做过的5份工作 上面的每个富人 都想表明他们是如何正常的 |
| 1570 | jobs. | 任务。 |
| 1571 | I don't want to play that game. | 我不想玩那个游戏。 |
| 1572 | I've held a bunch of menial jobs. | 我做过很多体温工作 |
| 1573 | There are people who have | 有的人谁 |
| 1574 | it worse than me, people who had it better than me. | 比我更糟糕的人 谁拥有它比我更好。 |
| 1575 | There was one point where I was washing dishes | 有一点我在洗盘子 |
| 1576 | in the school cafeteria and I said, F this. | 在学校食堂,我说,F这个。 |
| 1577 | I hate this. | 我讨厌这样 |
| 1578 | I can't do this anymore. | 我不能再这样下去了 |
| 1579 | I sweet talked my | 我甜言蜜语 |
| 1580 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}帮助TA的CS课算术 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我本人完全 | |
| 1581 | unqualified for that. | 完全没有这个资格 |
| 1582 | It forced me to learn computer science algorithms so I could TA the | 这迫使我学习计算机科学算法 所以我可以TA |
| 1583 | rest of the course, but that desire came out of the suffering of washing dishes in the college | 剩下的课程,但这种欲望 来源于在大学洗盘子的痛苦 |
| 1584 | cafeteria, which is not to say there's anything wrong with that. | 餐厅,这不是说有什么错。 |
| 1585 | There's nothing wrong with | 没有什么不对劲 |
| 1586 | anything really, but it was just not for me. | 真的,但这不是给我的。 |
| 1587 | I did not enjoy it. | 我没有喜欢它。 |
| 1588 | I had an active mind and I | 我有一个活跃的头脑,我 |
| 1589 | wanted to make my money and earn my living through mental activities, not through physical | 想通过精神活动赚钱 而不是通过身体来谋生 |
| 1590 | activities, but sometimes it takes the suffering of doing the wrong thing to motivate you enough | 但有时做错事 让你有足够的动力 |
| 1591 | to do the right thing. | 来做正确的事情。 |
| 1592 | I worked at a law firm for a while, a big prestigious law firm in New York | 我在纽约的一家大律师事务所工作过一段时间 |
| 1593 | 城 City. | |
| 1594 | I had a big internship there and I basically got fired for surfing using that back in the day. | 我在那里有一个很大的实习, 基本上我被解雇了 冲浪在一天。 |
| 1595 | This is before the internet was a big thing. | 这是在互联网成为一件大事之前。 |
| 1596 | Usenet was the news groups and it was the only | Usenet是新闻组 也是唯一的 |
| 1597 | way for me to stay from being completely bored and I was an overpaid guy wearing a tie and a suit and | 那样我就不会完全无聊了 我是一个高薪的家伙 穿着领带和西装 |
| 1598 | I had to hang out in the conference room when the lawyers needed photocopies, I would make photocopies | 我不得不在会议室里待着 当律师需要复印的时候 我会做复印 |
| 1599 | and in the meantime, I would be bored out of my skull. | 同时,我会厌倦我的头骨。 |
| 1600 | 这是前iPhone。 | |
| 1601 | Thank God to Steve | 感谢上帝史蒂夫 |
| 1602 | Jobs for saving us all from unending boredom, but I used to read the Wall Street Journal or anything | 帮助我们摆脱永无止境的无聊 但我以前读过《华尔街日报》之类的 |
| 1603 | that I could get my hands on. | 我可以把手伸过来 |
| 1604 | I would have read the back of a brochure just to keep from going | 我会读一本小册子的背面 只是为了不走 |
| 1605 | insane because listening to a bunch of corporate lawyers discuss how to optimize minute details in | 疯狂的,因为听 一堆公司律师 讨论如何优化分钟的细节 |
| 1606 | a big contract is really dull and they got mad at me because they wanted me to sit there quietly | 一个大合同真的很无聊 他们生我的气 因为他们想让我静静地坐在那里 |
| 1607 | and not read the Wall Street Journal. | 而不读华尔街日报. |
| 1608 | They said that's rude, that's misbehavior. | 他们说那很无礼,那是不端行为. |
| 1609 | So I got called | 所以我被叫来 |
| 1610 | up and reprimanded a bunch of times and then I was finally terminated and I was sent home in shame | 起来训斥了好几次,后来我终于被终止了,被送回家很丢脸 |
| 1611 | early from my very prestigious internship destroying my chance of going to law school | 早从我非常有名的实习 毁了我上法学院的机会 |
| 1612 | and I was unhappy for all of an hour, but ultimately it's one of the best things that | 我花了一个小时不高兴 但归根结底,这是最好的一件事 |
| 1613 | happened to me because then I would have ended up as a lawyer. | 发生在我身上,因为那样我就会成为一名律师。 |
| 1614 | Not that I have anything against | 不是说我有什么反对的 |
| 1615 | lawyers, but it's not what I was meant to do. | 律师,但这不是 我本该做的。 |
| 1616 | You mentioned the catering job that you had a while | 你提到有一段时间的餐饮工作 |
| 1617 | back that really kicked off the whole obsession. | 却把整个迷恋都推开 |
| 1618 | That was an envy thing. | 这真是令人羡慕 |
| 1619 | When I was in high school, | 当我在高中, |
| 1620 | I had to make some money to pay for my first semester at college and I had to get a job. | 我不得不赚一些钱支付 我的第一个学期 在大学,我不得不找到工作。 |
| 1621 | It was the summer of 1990-1991 time frame, so this was the Bush senior recession. | 当时是1990-1991年的夏天,所以这是布什的高级衰退。 |
| 1622 | If anyone who was | 如果有谁 |
| 1623 | alive back then remembers this, it was actually really hard to get a job. | 活着,然后记住这一点, 它实际上是很难找到工作。 |
| 1624 | So I ended up working | 所以我最后才开始工作 |
| 1625 | for an Indian food catering company and I ended up having to serve at a birthday party for a kid who | 最后我不得不在生日派对上为一个孩子服务 |
| 1626 | was actually in my school. | 实际上是在我的学校。 |
| 1627 | So I saw my classmates and I was out there serving food and drinks to | 我看见我的同学,我在外面 给大家提供食物和饮料 |
| 1628 | them and that was incredibly embarrassing. | 他们非常尴尬 |
| 1629 | I wanted to hide away and die right there, | 我想躲起来,死在那里, |
| 1630 | but it's all part of the plan. | 但这是计划的一部分 |
| 1631 | It's all part of the motivation. | 这都是动机的一部分。 |
| 1632 | If I hadn't had that happen, | 如果我没有发生这种情况, |
| 1633 | I probably wouldn't be as motivated and I wouldn't be as successful. | 我可能不会那么积极,也不会那么成功。 |
| 1634 | So it's all fine, | 所以一切都没事 |
| 1635 | but it was definitely a very strong motivator. | 但它绝对是一个非常强大的驱动器。 |
| 1636 | In that sense, envy can be useful. | 从这个意义上讲,嫉妒是有用的。 |
| 1637 | Envy can also | 爱慕也可以 |
| 1638 | eat you alive if you let it follow you your entire life, but there are points in your life | 吃活的,如果你让它跟随你的一生, 但你的生活有一些点 |
| 1639 | where it can be a very powerful booster rocket. | 在那里,它可以是一个非常强大的助推火箭。 |
| 1640 | We spoke earlier about picking a business model | 我们之前说过要选一个商业模式 |
| 1641 | that has leverage from scale economies, network effects, zero marginal cost of replication. | 从规模经济、网络效应、复制零边际成本中可以发挥杠杆作用。 |
| 1642 | There were a few other ideas on the cutting room floor that I want to go through with you. | 在剪机房地板上还有几个想法 我想跟你一起走 |
| 1643 | The first one was the principal agent problem. | 第一个是主要代理人的问题。 |
| 1644 | So mental models are all the rage. | 所以精神模型是所有的愤怒。 |
| 1645 | Everyone's trying to become smarter by adopting mental | 每个人都在试图通过收养精神而变得更聪明 |
| 1646 | models. | 模特儿们 |
| 1647 | I think mental models are interesting, but I don't think explicitly in terms of a mental | 我觉得心理模型很有趣 但我并不明确地认为 |
| 1648 | model checklist. | 模型清单。 |
| 1649 | 我知道Charlie Munger知道 但我不是这么想的 | |
| 1650 | Instead, I tend to | 相反,我倾向于 |
| 1651 | focus on the few lessons that I've learned in life over and over that I think are incredibly | 专注于我从生活中学到的几个教训 我认为是不可思议的 |
| 1652 | important and seem to apply almost universally. | 这一点很重要,似乎几乎普遍适用。 |
| 1653 | One that keeps coming up from microeconomics, | 从微观经济学来看, |
| 1654 | because as we've established macroeconomics is not really worth spending time on, is what's called | 因为我们已经建立了宏观经济学 并不值得花时间 |
| 1655 | the principal agent problem. | 主要的代理问题。 |
| 1656 | Principal in this case is principal with a P-A-L, not P-L-E. | 本案的校长为P-A-L,而不是P-L-E。 |
| 1657 | So it's | 所以这是 |
| 1658 | not a principal that you follow. | 不是你们所追随的校长。 |
| 1659 | It's a principal who is a person. | 其主为人. |
| 1660 | A principal is an owner and an | 校长是主人,而 |
| 1661 | agent is the person who works for the owner. | 代理人是为业主工作的人。 |
| 1662 | So you can think of it as an employee, the difference | 所以,你可以把它作为一个雇员, 区别 |
| 1663 | between a founder and an employee. | 在创始人和员工之间 |
| 1664 | I can summarize this by a famous quote that either was said by | 我可以用一句著名的谚语来总结这一点。 |
| 1665 | Napoleon or by Julius Caesar. | 拿破仑或者凯撒 |
| 1666 | It's generally attributed to either one, but he said, | 通常都归罪于其中之一 但他说 |
| 1667 | if you want it done, then go. | 如果你想完成,那就滚吧。 |
| 1668 | If not, then send. | 如果没有,那么发送。 |
| 1669 | Which is saying, if you want to do something | 也就是说 如果你想做点什么 |
| 1670 | right, do it yourself, because other people just don't care enough. | 好吧,你自己做, 因为其他人只是不够关心。 |
| 1671 | Now the principal agent problem | 现在的主要代理问题 |
| 1672 | pops up everywhere. | 随处涌出. |
| 1673 | In microeconomics, the way that they try to characterize it is that the | 在微观经济学中,他们试图定性的方式是 |
| 1674 | principal's incentives are different than the agent's incentives. | 校长的奖励办法不同于代理人的奖励办法。 |
| 1675 | So the owner of the business | 所以,企业的主人 |
| 1676 | wants what is best for the business and will make the most money. | 想要最有利于生意的东西 赚的钱最多 |
| 1677 | The agent generally wants | 经纪人一般想要 |
| 1678 | whatever will look good to the principal, or might make them the most friends in the neighborhood or | 任何对校长好, 或可能让他们 朋友在附近或 |
| 1679 | in the business, or might make them personally the most money. | 或可能让他们个人的钱最多。 |
| 1680 | You see this a lot with hired | 你看这很多与雇佣 |
| 1681 | gun CEOs running public companies, where the ownership of the public company is distributed | 经营公营公司的持枪首席执行官,由公营公司拥有 |
| 1682 | so widely that there's no principal remaining. | 如此广泛,没有校长留下。 |
| 1683 | So nobody owns more than 1% of the company, | 所以,没有人拥有超过1%的公司, |
| 1684 | the CEO takes charge, stuffs the board with their buddies, and then starts issuing themselves | 首席执行官负责,把董事会 和他们的伙伴,然后开始发行自己 |
| 1685 | low price stock options or doing a lot of stock buybacks because their compensation is based | 低价股票期权 或做大量股票回购 因为他们的补偿基础 |
| 1686 | directly tied to the stock price. | 直接与股价挂钩. |
| 1687 | So agents have a way of hacking systems. | 所以特工们有黑客系统的方法 |
| 1688 | This is what make | 就是这样 |
| 1689 | incentive design so difficult. | 奖励设计这么难。 |
| 1690 | As Charlie Munger says, if you can be working on incentives, don't | 正如查理·芒格所说 如果你能研究激励机制 别 |
| 1691 | work on anything else. | 做点别的 |
| 1692 | Almost all human behavior can be explained by incentives. | 几乎所有人类的行为都可以通过激励来解释. |
| 1693 | The study of | 研究 |
| 1694 | signaling and signals is seeing what people do despite what they say. | 信号和信号是看 人们做什么,尽管他们说。 |
| 1695 | People are much more honest | 人们更诚实 |
| 1696 | with their actions than they are with their words. | 他们的行为比他们的言辞还重要。 |
| 1697 | You have to get the incentives right | 你一定要得到正确的奖励 |
| 1698 | to get people to behave correctly. | 让人们的行为正确。 |
| 1699 | It's a very, very difficult problem because the good people | 这是一个非常,非常困难的问题 因为好人 |
| 1700 | aren't purely coin operated. | 不是纯粹的硬币操作。 |
| 1701 | They're not just looking for money. | 他们不只是在找钱 |
| 1702 | They're also looking for | 他们也在找 |
| 1703 | other things like status or meaning in what they do. | 其他的东西,比如地位或意义 在他们做什么。 |
| 1704 | Principal agent problem is the one that as a | 主要代理问题是一个 |
| 1705 | business owner, you're always going to be trying to figure out how do I make this person think like | 店主,你总想着 我如何让这个人觉得 |
| 1706 | me? | 我吗? |
| 1707 | How do I incent them? | 我怎么奖励他们? |
| 1708 | How do I give them founder mentality? | 我该如何给他们创造精神? |
| 1709 | And I think you have to truly | 我想你必须真的 |
| 1710 | have been a founder to fully appreciate how important this founder mentality thing is and | 成为创始人 充分理解这个创始人的心态有多重要 |
| 1711 | what a difficult and gnarly problem the principal agent problem is. | 主要代理人的问题是多么困难和棘手的问题。 |
| 1712 | What I would say to you is if | 我想对你说的是,如果 |
| 1713 | you are a principal, you essentially want to spend a lot of your time thinking about this problem. | 你是校长, 你基本上想花很多时间 思考这个问题。 |
| 1714 | What that means is you want to take your top lieutenants and you want to be very generous | 意思是你想带上你的高级中尉 并且你要非常慷慨 |
| 1715 | with them in terms of ownership and incentives, even if they don't necessarily realize it, | 在所有权和激励方面 即使他们不一定意识到 |
| 1716 | because over time they will and you want them to be aligned with you in how they operate. | 因为随着时间的流逝,他们会... ...而你希望他们与你一致 他们如何操作。 |
| 1717 | When you do business deals, it's better to have an aligned partnership where you both have the same | 当你们做生意时 最好能建立 你们俩都一样的伙伴关系 |
| 1718 | incentives than a partnership where you got the advantage in the deal. | 奖励比合作 在那里你得到了优势 在交易。 |
| 1719 | You negotiate in such a way | 你这样谈判 |
| 1720 | that you've got the better end of the transaction because eventually the other person will figure | 因为最终对方会想出 |
| 1721 | it out or they'll be misaligned and the partnership will fall apart. | 要不然他们会错位 合伙人会崩溃的 |
| 1722 | Either way, it's not going to be | 不管怎么样,它不会是 |
| 1723 | one of those things that you can invest into with the benefits of compound interest over decades. | 其中一件事你可以投资 与好处 复利几十年。 |
| 1724 | Finally, if you're in a current role where you're an agent, you're an employee, | 最后,如果你在现今的角色 作为经纪人,你是雇员, |
| 1725 | your most important job is to think like a principal. | 你最重要的工作就是像校长一样思考 |
| 1726 | The more you can think like a principal, | 你越想当校长 |
| 1727 | the better off you're going to be long term because it's training you how to be a principal | 越好,你会是长期的,因为它训练你如何做校长 |
| 1728 | long term and eventually you will become a principal. | 长期,最终你会成为校长。 |
| 1729 | It's also going to align you with | 也会让你适应 |
| 1730 | the principal and a good principal will then promote you or empower you or give you accountability | 校长和好校长将提升你的地位或赋予你权力或赋予你问责制 |
| 1731 | or leverage way out of proportion to what might be your menial role. | 或利用的方式不相称 可能是你的低级角色。 |
| 1732 | I'm always very impressed by | 我总是很佩服 |
| 1733 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}会让年轻人从队伍中晋升的创始人 | |
| 1734 | multiple levels despite their experience. | 多层次,尽管他们的经验。 |
| 1735 | Invariably, it happens because this agent | 总是因为这个特工 |
| 1736 | who's way deep down thinks like a principal. | 他的内心深处 认为像校长。 |
| 1737 | If you can hack your way through the principal | 如果你能黑进主机 |
| 1738 | agent problem, you've probably solved half of what it takes to run a company. | 代理问题,你可能已经解决了一半 管理公司。 |
| 1739 | The reason I asked about this one first is because I feel like I personally never see | 我之所以先问起这个 是因为我觉得自己从未见过 |
| 1740 | the principal agent problem in my work. | 我工作的主要代理问题。 |
| 1741 | I tend to work in small teams where everybody is highly | 我经常在小队里工作 在那里每个人都很优秀 |
| 1742 | economically aligned and the people have been filtered for a commitment to the mission | 经济上趋于一致,人民已被过滤,以致力于特派团 |
| 1743 | and everybody else who doesn't work out moves on to another role elsewhere. | 其他人谁不工作 转到其他角色。 |
| 1744 | These are all heuristics that you have designed to avoid having to deal with the single biggest | 这些都是你设计的 避免面对一个最大的 |
| 1745 | problem in management. | 管理层的问题。 |
| 1746 | Another example of a heuristic you can have that helps you route around | 另一个可以帮助你绕行的热力学例子 |
| 1747 | the principal agent problem is to deal with the smallest firms possible. | 主要的代理问题是与最小的公司打交道。 |
| 1748 | So for example, | 比如说, |
| 1749 | when I'm hiring a lawyer or a banker or even an accountant to work on my deals, one of the things | 当我雇律师、银行家、甚至会计 做我的交易时,其中一件事情 |
| 1750 | that I've become very cognizant about is the bigger firms, all other things equal are generally | 我非常了解的是大公司, 所有其他平等的东西一般 |
| 1751 | worse. | 更惨 |
| 1752 | Yes, they have more experience. | 是的,他们有更多的经验。 |
| 1753 | Yes, they have more people. | 是的,他们有更多的人。 |
| 1754 | Yes, they have a bigger brand. | 是的,他们有一个更大的品牌。 |
| 1755 | But what you'll find is that the principal and the agent are highly separated. | 但你会发现 校长和特工高度分离 |
| 1756 | And very often, | 而且经常 |
| 1757 | the principal will sell you and convince you to work with a firm, but then all the work will be | 校长会卖掉你 说服你跟律所合作 但之后所有的工作都会是 |
| 1758 | done by an agent who simply doesn't care as much. | 由一个不关心的特工干的 |
| 1759 | And you can end up getting substandard service. | 你最终会得到低于标准的服务。 |
| 1760 | So I prefer to work with boutiques and my ideal law firm to work with is a law firm of one. | 所以我更喜欢和小卖部合作 我的理想律师事务所就是一家律师事务所 |
| 1761 | My ideal banker to work with is a solo banker. | 我最理想的银行家是独家银行家 |
| 1762 | Now you're making other sacrifices and trade-offs | 现在你在做出其他牺牲和权衡 |
| 1763 | in terms of that person's resources and you are betting big on that person, but you've got one | 就他的资源而言,你赌他, 但你有一个 |
| 1764 | throat to choke. | 喉咙至咽喉. |
| 1765 | There's no one else to point fingers to. | 指指指者无他. |
| 1766 | There's nowhere to run. | 无处可逃. |
| 1767 | The accountability | 问责制 |
| 1768 | is extremely high. | 绝对很高 |
| 1769 | If you're an agent, the best way to operate is just say, what would the founder | 如果你是经纪人 最好的操作方法就是说 创始人会怎样 |
| 1770 | do? | 是吗? |
| 1771 | If you think like the owner and you act like the owner, it's only a matter of time until you | 如果你觉得自己像主人 你表现得像主人 那只有时间了 |
| 1772 | become the owner. | 成为主人。 |
| 1773 | Let's chat about the Kelly Criterion. | 我们来谈谈凯莉奖章 |
| 1774 | The Kelly Criterion is a very popularized | 凯莉·克里特利翁很受欢迎 |
| 1775 | mathematical formulation of a simple concept. | 简单概念的数学表达。 |
| 1776 | And the simple concept is don't risk everything. | 简单的概念是不要冒险 |
| 1777 | Stay out of jail. | 远离牢狱. |
| 1778 | Don't bet everything on one big gamble. | 别把赌注都赌了 |
| 1779 | Just be very careful how much you bet each | 小心点,你们每人赌多少 |
| 1780 | time so you don't lose the whole kitty. | 时间让你不要失去整个猫咪。 |
| 1781 | Kelly Criterion在数学上表达 如果你是 | |
| 1782 | because even when you have an edge, you can still lose. | 因为即使你有优势, 你仍然可以输。 |
| 1783 | So let's say you have 5149 edge. | 因此,让我们假设你有5149个边。 |
| 1784 | Every | 每个 |
| 1785 | gambler knows not to bet the whole kitty on that 5149 edge because you could just lose everything | 赌徒知道不要把整只小猫赌在5149边上 因为你会失去一切 |
| 1786 | and you don't get to come back to the average. | 而且你不会回到平均水平。 |
| 1787 | Nassim Taleb famously talks about ergodicity, | 纳西姆·塔莱布在著名的演讲中谈到ergodiction, |
| 1788 | which is a fancy word for the simple concept that what is true for a hundred people on average | 这是一个花言巧语 简单的概念,什么是真实的 对于平均100人 |
| 1789 | isn't the same as one person averaging that same thing a hundred times. | 和一个人平均100次不一样 |
| 1790 | The easiest way to see that | 最容易看出来的方法 |
| 1791 | is by playing Russian roulette. | 就是玩俄罗斯轮盘 |
| 1792 | Six people who play Russian roulette once each and then each | 6个人 玩俄罗斯轮盘一次,然后每人 |
| 1793 | winner gets a billion dollars. | 赢家得到10亿美元。 |
| 1794 | One person ends up dead. | 一人终死. |
| 1795 | Five people have a billion dollars versus | 5个人有10亿美元对 |
| 1796 | one person who plays Russian roulette with the same one gun six times is never going to end up | 一个人用同样的一把枪 玩俄罗斯轮盘6次 永远不会结束 |
| 1797 | a billion or is going to end up worth zero. | 10亿或将最终值0。 |
| 1798 | And so risk taking, especially when the averages are | 所以冒险,特别是当平均值 |
| 1799 | calculated across large populations is not always rational. | 对大量人口进行计算并不总是合理的。 |
| 1800 | The Kelly Criterion helps you avoid ruin. | 凯利标准 帮助你避免毁灭。 |
| 1801 | The number one way in which people get ruined in modern business is not by betting too much, | 人们在现代商业中被破坏的第一方式 不是赌太多 |
| 1802 | but it's by cutting corners and doing unethical things or downright illegal things. | 但是,这是通过割角 做不道德的事情 或直接违法的事情。 |
| 1803 | Ending up in | 最终进入 |
| 1804 | an orange jumpsuit in prison or having a reputation ruined is the same as getting wiped to zero. | 在监狱里穿一件橙色的外衣 或者名誉受损 和被擦成零一样 |
| 1805 | So | 这么说 |
| 1806 | never do those things. | 永远不要做那些事。 |
| 1807 | Let's talk about the shelling point is a game theory concept made | 我们来谈谈炮击点是一个游戏理论概念 |
| 1808 | famous by Thomas Schelling in the book called strategy of conflict, which I do recommend | 托马斯·舍林在书中 称为冲突策略 我建议 |
| 1809 | reading. | 阅读。 |
| 1810 | It's about multiplayer games where other people are responding based on what they think | 这是关于多人游戏 其他人根据自己的想法来回应 |
| 1811 | your response is. | 你的反应是。 |
| 1812 | What he came up with was the mathematical formalization of how do you get people | 他想到的就是数学形式化 你是如何得到人 |
| 1813 | who cannot communicate with each other to coordinate? | 谁不能互相沟通来协调? |
| 1814 | Suppose that I want to meet with you, | 假设我想见你, |
| 1815 | but I don't tell you where and I don't tell you when. | 但我不告诉你在哪里 也不告诉你什么时候 |
| 1816 | We both want to meet, but we cannot | 我们都想见面,但我们不能 |
| 1817 | communicate any more information to each other. | 向对方通报更多信息。 |
| 1818 | That would sound like an impossible problem to | 这听起来像一个不可能的问题 |
| 1819 | solve. | 解脱. |
| 1820 | We're done. | 我们结束了。 |
| 1821 | We can't do it. | 我们不能这样做。 |
| 1822 | Not quite. | 没有 |
| 1823 | Because I know that you're a rational person | 因为我知道你是个理智的人 |
| 1824 | and smart and educated and you know I'm a rational person who's smart, we're going to start thinking | 聪明又受过教育,你知道我是一个理性的人 谁聪明,我们要开始思考 |
| 1825 | if we have to pick an arbitrary date, we're probably going to pick New Year's. | 如果我们必须选择一个任意的日期, 我们可能要选择新年。 |
| 1826 | And what time? | 什么时候? |
| 1827 | Midnight or 12 a.m. And where would we meet? | 午夜或12点 我们在哪里见面? |
| 1828 | What is a big meeting point? | 什么是重要的会议地点? |
| 1829 | Well, if we're Americans, | 如果我们是美国人 |
| 1830 | it's probably in New York City. | 可能在纽约市 |
| 1831 | It's the most important city. | 这是最重要的城市. |
| 1832 | And where in New York City will | 纽约市会在哪里 |
| 1833 | meet at midnight? | 午夜见面? |
| 1834 | Probably Grand Central Station under the clock. | 可能是大中央车站在钟下。 |
| 1835 | Maybe you end up at the Empire | 说不定你到帝国去了 |
| 1836 | State Building, but not likely. | 国家大厦,但不太可能。 |
| 1837 | You can just use social norms to converge onto a shelling point. | 你可以用社会规范来接近一个炮击点。 |
| 1838 | There are many times in many games where you can look at the game itself, whether it's business or | 在许多游戏中,很多时候你可以看游戏本身,无论是商业还是商业 |
| 1839 | art or politics, and you can find the convergent shelling point within the context of that game. | 艺术或政治,你可以在这个游戏中找到交汇的炮击点。 |
| 1840 | You can cooperate with the other person. | 你可以和对方合作 |
| 1841 | Here's a simple example. | 这里有一个简单的例子。 |
| 1842 | Let's suppose that you have two | 假设你有两个 |
| 1843 | competing heavily with each other and they hold an oligopoly. | 他们互相竞争激烈 他们持有寡头垄断 |
| 1844 | Let's say that they're competing | 不如说他们在竞争 |
| 1845 | right now and the price fluctuates between 8 bucks and 12 bucks for whatever the service is. | 价格在8美元到12美元之间波动 不管服务是什么 |
| 1846 | Don't be surprised if they both converge on 10 bucks without ever talking to each other. | 若两人在10块钱上聚在一起,却从未交谈过,别感到惊讶. |
| 1847 | 你想谈谈Pareto Optimal吗? | |
| 1848 | Pareto Optimal是游戏理论与Pareto Superior的另一个概念. | |
| 1849 | Pareto Superior means that something is better in some ways while being equal or better in the | Pareto Superior的意思是,在某些方面,有些东西更好,同时在平等或更好 |
| 1850 | other ways. | 其他方式。 |
| 1851 | It's not worse off in any way. | 更无更苦. |
| 1852 | This is an important concept when you're negotiating | 这是重要的概念 当你谈判 |
| 1853 | with somebody. | 和某个人 |
| 1854 | If you can make a solution Pareto Superior to where it was before, | 如果你能解决Pareto Superior问题 回到以前的位置 |
| 1855 | you will always do that. | 你会永远这样做。 |
| 1856 | Pareto Optimal is when the solution is the best that it can possibly be, | 帕雷托优化是当 解决方案是最好的,它可能是, |
| 1857 | then you can't change it without making it worse in at least one dimension. | 那样你就不能改变它,不让它在至少一个维度上更糟糕。 |
| 1858 | There is a hard trade | 交易很艰难 |
| 1859 | off from this point forward. | 从这个角度出发 |
| 1860 | These are important concepts to understand when you're involved in a | 这些都是重要的概念 当你参与一个 |
| 1861 | This is a tweet that I have. | 这是我有的微博。 |
| 1862 | Negotiations are won by whoever cares less. | 谈判由谁赢得 谁不在乎。 |
| 1863 | Negotiation, | 谈判, |
| 1864 | at the end of the day, is about not wanting it too badly. | 归根结底,就是不要太渴望它。 |
| 1865 | If you want something too badly, | 如果你想要的东西太糟糕, |
| 1866 | then the other person will be able to extract more price from it. | 然后其他人就可以从中提取更多的价格。 |
| 1867 | If you do care more about | 如果你更关心 |
| 1868 | something than the other person and they are taking advantage of you in a negotiation, | 他们利用你来谈判 |
| 1869 | then your best way to deal with that is to turn it from a short-term game into a long-term game. | 然后,你最好的处理方式是 把它从短期游戏变成长期游戏。 |
| 1870 | Try to make it into a repeat game. | 试着把它变成一个重复游戏。 |
| 1871 | Try to bring reputation into line. | 试着让名声成形 |
| 1872 | Try to bring other people | 试着带别人来 |
| 1873 | in who may have a say in the future or may want to play games with this person in the future. | 将来谁有发言权 或者将来想和这个人玩游戏 |
| 1874 | An example of a very high cost, low information, single move game is having your house renovated. | 一个成本高,信息低,单人移动游戏的例子就是将你的房子翻新. |
| 1875 | Contractors are notorious for overbooking, ripping people off, being unaccountable. | 承包商臭名昭著地说 订了太多房 抢走了人 毫无责任可言 |
| 1876 | I'm sure contractors have their own side of it. | 我相信承包商有他们自己的一面。 |
| 1877 | The homeowner has unreasonable demands. | 房主有不合理的要求. |
| 1878 | We found problems. | 我们发现了问题。 |
| 1879 | The homeowner doesn't want to pay for it. | 屋主不欲报. |
| 1880 | They don't understand. | 他们不明白 |
| 1881 | They're | 他们是 |
| 1882 | low information buyers. | 低信息买家。 |
| 1883 | It's a very expensive transaction. | 这是一个非常昂贵的交易。 |
| 1884 | Historically, it's been very hard | 从历史上来看,这很困难 |
| 1885 | to find good contractors and the contractor has no choice on what a good homeowner is. | 找到好承包商 承包商没有选择 一个好房主是什么。 |
| 1886 | You try to go through friends. | 你试图通过朋友。 |
| 1887 | You try to go through reputation. | 你试图通过名誉。 |
| 1888 | What you're basically | 基本上你是谁 |
| 1889 | doing there is you're trying to convert a single move expensive game with a high probability of | 你试图转换一个单动作 昂贵的游戏 极有可能 |
| 1890 | cheating on both sides into a multi-move game. | 两边都作弊成多动作游戏. |
| 1891 | One way to do that is to say, well, actually, | 一个方法就是说,其实, |
| 1892 | I need two different projects done. | 我需要完成两个不同的项目 |
| 1893 | So the first project we'll do together and then based on that, | 因此,第一个项目 我们将一起做, 然后在此基础上, |
| 1894 | I'll decide if we do the second project. | 我会决定我们做第二个项目。 |
| 1895 | You can split your work up into two projects. | 你可以把工作分成两个项目 |
| 1896 | Another | 又一个 |
| 1897 | way might be I'm going to do this project with you and then I have three friends who want projects | 可能我要和你做这个项目 然后我有三个朋友想要项目 |
| 1898 | done and they're waiting to see the outcome of these projects. | 他们正在等待这些项目的结果。 |
| 1899 | Another one might be the same | 另一个可能是一样的 |
| 1900 | person operating within the same community and having a reputation in the community to protect. | (a) 在同一社区内活动并在社区中享有保护声誉的人。 |
| 1901 | Another one could be you write them a Yelp review or a Thumbtack review. | 另一个可能是你写一个Yelp评论 或者一个缩图评论。 |
| 1902 | These are all ways of | 这些都是所有的方式 |
| 1903 | learning a single move game into a longer-term game and helping get past a position of poor | 学习进入长期游戏的单项动作游戏,帮助克服贫穷 |
| 1904 | negotiating leverage and poor information. | 谈判杠杆和不良信息。 |
| 1905 | We talked about compounding and compounding | 我们讨论过复合和复合 |
| 1906 | interest, but we didn't really dig into it that much. | 兴趣,但我们没有真正 挖掘它。 |
| 1907 | Relationships are a good example of compound | 关系是复合物的好例子 |
| 1908 | interest. | 利息 |
| 1909 | Once you've been in a good relationship with somebody for a while, whether it's business | 一旦你和别人有一段好关系 不管是生意 |
| 1910 | or it's romantic, life gets a lot easier because you know that person's got your back. | 或者很浪漫 生活会变得更容易 因为你知道那个人会支持你 |
| 1911 | You don't | 你没有 |
| 1912 | have to read the legal contracts. | 必须读法律合同。 |
| 1913 | Maybe we don't even need to create legal contracts. | 也许我们甚至不需要订立法律合约 |
| 1914 | Maybe we can | 也许我们可以 |
| 1915 | actually do it on handshakes. | 其实是在握手的时候 |
| 1916 | That kind of trust makes it very, very easy to do business. | 这种信任使它非常,非常容易做生意。 |
| 1917 | If Nivi | 如果尼维 |
| 1918 | and I start another company, I know that if things aren't working out, we're both going to be extremely | 我创立了另一个公司, 我知道如果事情不顺利, 我们都会变得非常 |
| 1919 | reasonable about how to go about it, how to exit out of it, how to shut it down, or even if we're | 合理如何进行,如何退出,如何关闭,甚至我们 |
| 1920 | scaling it, how to bring in new people. | 放大它,如何引进新的人。 |
| 1921 | At this point, we have mutual trust and that allows us to | 此时此刻,我们相互信任,从而使我们能够 |
| 1922 | start businesses more easily and almost compounds the effect, especially when you're dealing with | 更轻松地创办企业 并且几乎会增加效果 特别是当你面对 |
| 1923 | something like a startup, which is so difficult to pull off. | 有点像启动器 很难成功 |
| 1924 | Removing these frictional mechanisms | 消除这些摩擦机制 |
| 1925 | can actually often be the difference between success and failure. | 事实上,这常常是成功与失败的区别。 |
| 1926 | I think the number one most | 我觉得第一 |
| 1927 | under recognized reason startups fail is because the founders fall apart. | 在公认的理性下,启动失败是因为创始人崩溃了. |
| 1928 | There's a couple non-intuitive things about compounding. | 有一些非直觉的东西 关于复合。 |
| 1929 | The first one is that most of the | 第一个是大多数 |
| 1930 | benefits of compounding comes at the end of the compounding. | 化合物的好处来自化合物的结尾。 |
| 1931 | You may not necessarily see the huge | 你可能不会看到巨大的 |
| 1932 | benefits of it upfront. | 利益是先发制人。 |
| 1933 | There was a good quote from an article that Sam Altman wrote where he | 萨姆·阿尔特曼写的一篇文章中有一句好话 |
| 1934 | said, I always want it to be a project that, if successful, will make the rest of my career look | 说,我一直希望它是一个项目, 如果成功, 将使我的余生看起来 |
| 1935 | like a footnote. | 像一个脚注。 |
| 1936 | Again, that just goes back to the idea that most of the benefits of compounding | 再说一遍,这又回到了一种想法, 即复合的多数好处 |
| 1937 | at the end. | 在结尾。 |
| 1938 | The other thing that's a little non-intuitive about compounding is that I think | 另一种对复合体有点不直观的东西是,我想 |
| 1939 | it's better to have a few deep compounding relationships with people instead of a large | 最好和人保持一些深厚的复合关系 而不是大关系 |
| 1940 | amount of non-compounding relationships. | 非合并关系的数量。 |
| 1941 | One of the under realized things in business is | 企业中一个未实现的东西是 |
| 1942 | that it takes just as much effort to create a small business as it does to create a large business. | 创建小企业和创建大型企业同样需要努力。 |
| 1943 | Whether you're Elon Musk or whether you're the guy running three Italian restaurants in town, | 不管你是伊隆·穆斯克 还是你镇上三个意大利餐馆的老板 |
| 1944 | you're working 80 hours a week, you're sweating bullets, you're hiring and firing people, | 你每周工作80小时, 你流着汗的子弹, 你雇用和解雇人, |
| 1945 | you're trying to balance the books. | 你试图平衡书籍。 |
| 1946 | It's highly stressful and it takes years and years of your | 压力很大,你需要很多年 |
| 1947 | life. | 活着 |
| 1948 | But in one case, you get companies that are worth $50, $100 billion and the adulation of | 但有一次,你得到的公司 价值500,1000亿美元 和标注 |
| 1949 | everybody. | 每个人。 |
| 1950 | And the other hand, you might make a little bit of money and you've got some nice | 另一只手,你可能赚到一点钱,而且你有些好东西 |
| 1951 | restaurants. | 餐厅。 |
| 1952 | So think big. | 所以想大点。 |
| 1953 | Are there any other microeconomic concepts outside of zero marginal | 除零边际外,还有其他微观经济概念吗? |
| 1954 | cost of replication and scale economies that are important for people to understand? | 复制成本和规模经济对人们了解很重要? |
| 1955 | Price discrimination is an important thing to understand. | 价格歧视是了解的一个重要问题。 |
| 1956 | What it means is that you can | 这意味着你可以 |
| 1957 | charge people different things based on their propensity to pay. | 根据人们付费的倾向 向他们收取不同的费用 |
| 1958 | Now, you're not allowed to | 现在,你不允许 |
| 1959 | charge different people different things just because you don't like them. | 给不同的人收费 是因为你不喜欢他们 |
| 1960 | You have to offer | 你必须提供 |
| 1961 | them a little something extra, but it has to be something that rich people care about. | 他们有一点额外的东西, 但它必须是一些 富人关心的东西。 |
| 1962 | Business | 商业 |
| 1963 | class seats will routinely cost five or 10 times what an economy class seat does, but it probably | 班级座椅通常要花费 经济舱座椅的五到十倍 但也许 |
| 1964 | costs the airline just two, maybe three X to provide that. | 航空公司只花了两个,也许三个X来提供。 |
| 1965 | It's just the rich person is more | 只是有钱人比较多 |
| 1966 | willing to pay. | 愿意付钱 |
| 1967 | So you have to give them the little things that they need extra to either signal | 所以,你必须给他们一些小东西 他们需要额外的信号 |
| 1968 | they're rich or that little bit of comfort that they want. | 他们很有钱 或者他们想要的一点安慰 |
| 1969 | Price discrimination gets used a lot | 价格歧视经常被利用 |
| 1970 | in enterprise software where you have a freemium product. | 在企业软件中,你有一个免费产品。 |
| 1971 | The free version will do almost everything, | 免费版几乎能做一切 |
| 1972 | but then if you want the version that's a little extra secure or hosted on your site | 但是如果你想要这个版本 是一个额外的安全 或主机在你的网站 |
| 1973 | or has multi-user administration so the IT person can monitor everything that's going on, | 或拥有多用户的管理, 这样IT人员可以监视一切 正在发生的, |
| 1974 | you'll suddenly find yourself paying 10, 100, or infinite times as much as you go from a free | 你会突然发现自己支付10,100, 或者无限倍 你从免费 |
| 1975 | product to a price product. | 产品到价格产品。 |
| 1976 | Another good concept is consumer surplus and producer surplus, | 另一个很好的概念是消费者盈余和生产者盈余, |
| 1977 | which is the excess value that somebody gets. | 这是别人的多余价值。 |
| 1978 | Even though they were willing to pay more, | 即使他们愿意付出更多 |
| 1979 | the product was priced the same for everybody. | 产品价格对每个人都一样 |
| 1980 | I get a lot of joy out of my morning coffee. | 我从早上的咖啡中得到很多快乐 |
| 1981 | Obviously, I've made some money. | 显然,我赚了一些钱。 |
| 1982 | If my coffee cost $20, I would pay $20 for my morning coffee, | 如果我的咖啡花费20美元, 我会支付20美元 我的早晨咖啡, |
| 1983 | but Starbucks doesn't know that. | 但星巴克不知道这一点。 |
| 1984 | It can't price the coffee at $20 just for me because it's selling | 20块的咖啡不能因为卖掉就卖掉 |
| 1985 | the exact same product, so I'm getting a lot of consumer surplus out of the coffee. | 同样的产品, 所以我得到很多 消费者剩余咖啡。 |
| 1986 | All businesses | 所有企业 |
| 1987 | generate consumer surplus. | 产生消费者盈余。 |
| 1988 | It's a good thing to keep in mind when someone's harping about how evil | 当有人在谈论邪恶时 记住这是好事 |
| 1989 | companies are. | 企业是。 |
| 1990 | Amazon might be a trillion dollar company, but I will bet you they're generating | 亚马逊可能是一个万亿的公司, 但我敢打赌,他们正在创造 |
| 1991 | trillions of dollars in consumer surplus through convenience and willingness to pay. | 通过方便和愿意支付,消费盈余达到数万亿美元. |
| 1992 | There are a | 有个 |
| 1993 | lot of people who are willing to pay more than what Amazon charges them for all their services. | 许多人愿意付出比亚马逊收取的 更多的服务费 |
| 1994 | Let's talk about NPV. | 让我们谈谈NPV。 |
| 1995 | NPV is just the net present value of something. | NPV只是某物的净现值. |
| 1996 | It's when you say | 是你说的 |
| 1997 | that stream of payments I'm going to get in the future, what is that worth today? | 我将来会得到的薪水 今天值多少钱? |
| 1998 | So a common example of this is you're joining a startup company and you're getting stock options | 所以一个常见的例子就是 你加入了一家创业公司 你得到了股票期权 |
| 1999 | and the founder says, well, this company is going to be worth a billion dollars and I'm giving you | 创始人说,这家公司要值十亿美元,我给你 |
| 2000 | 0.1% of the company. | 企业的0.1%. |
| 2001 | Therefore, you're getting a million dollars worth of stock. | 因此,你得到价值一百万的股票。 |
| 2002 | What he or | 他还是 |
| 2003 | she's arguing is what it's going to be worth in the future. | 她的争论是未来值得的 |
| 2004 | You have to discount that back to | 你得把那个还给 |
| 2005 | today. | 今时. |
| 2006 | You have to figure out what is that worth today and you have to apply a discount rate or | 你要知道今天值多少钱 还要贴现率 |
| 2007 | an interest rate that takes into account the massive risk that startups face. | 利率考虑到创业企业面临的巨大风险。 |
| 2008 | What you'll | 你会怎样? |
| 2009 | end up with is the price that it's worth today and that's the price at which a venture capitalist | 最后是今天的价钱 也是风险投资家的价钱 |
| 2010 | would invest in the company today. | 今天会投资公司。 |
| 2011 | So if that founder just raised around at 10 million dollars | 所以,如果创始人刚刚筹集了大约1000万美元 |
| 2012 | and that company is only worth 1% of what the founder is arguing, your million dollar package | 那家公司只值创始人争论的1% 你那百万的包裹 |
| 2013 | is actually worth 10,000 dollars. | 实际上价值一万美金 |
| 2014 | So NPV calculations at a very rough level, | 所以NPV的计算非常粗略 |
| 2015 | you should be very comfortable doing in your head. | 你脑子里应该很舒服 |
| 2016 | What's a mispriced externality? | 何谓偏价外道? |
| 2017 | You mentioned | 你说过 |
| 2018 | that at some point during our podcast. | 在我们播客的某个时候 |
| 2019 | An externality is when there is an additional cost | 外在性就是增加成本 |
| 2020 | that is imposed by whatever product is being produced or consumed that is not accounted for | 由任何正在生产或消费但没有核算的产品强加的 |
| 2021 | in the price of the product. | 在产品的价格。 |
| 2022 | Sometimes you can fix that by putting the price back into the product. | 有时候你可以把价格放回产品里来解决这个问题。 |
| 2023 | One of the most ardent ways people attack capitalism these days is that it's destroying | 最近人们最热衷于攻击资本主义的方法之一 就是它正在毁灭 |
| 2024 | the environment. | 环境。 |
| 2025 | And if you throw away capitalism because it's destroying the environment, | 如果你放弃资本主义 因为它正在破坏环境 |
| 2026 | then guess what? | 你猜怎么着? |
| 2027 | We're all headed back to pre-industrial times. | 我们都回到了工业前期 |
| 2028 | It's not going to be a | 它不会是一个 |
| 2029 | good thing. | 好东西 |
| 2030 | So rather, there is an externality because the environment is finite, the environment | 因此,有外在性 因为环境是有限的,环境 |
| 2031 | is precious, and we have to price it properly and fold it back in. | 是珍贵的,我们必须适当定价 并折叠回来。 |
| 2032 | If people are wasting water or | 如果人们浪费水或 |
| 2033 | putting hydrocarbons in the atmosphere or polluting things, you want to charge them what it costs to | 将碳氢化合物放入大气层或污染物质,你想收取它们的成本 |
| 2034 | clean up that pollution and return it to a pristine state. | 清理污染,恢复到原始状态. |
| 2035 | Perhaps that price has to be very, very, | 也许这个代价必须非常,非常, |
| 2036 | very high. | 相当高。 |
| 2037 | If you raise that price high enough, you knock out pollution. | 如果你把价钱涨得够高 你就能消除污染 |
| 2038 | It's much better than | 这比 |
| 2039 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们只是禁用塑料袋 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}我们要说不要 | |
| 2040 | showers on Saturdays and Sundays when we're having a drought. | 周六和周日的淋浴,当我们发生干旱。 |
| 2041 | California likes to run declarations | 加州喜欢做申报 |
| 2042 | and ads to scare you into not taking showers and times when there's a drought when it would be just | 和广告吓你不要洗澡 和时间 当有干旱,这将是公正的 |
| 2043 | better to raise the price of fresh water. | 最好是提高淡水的价格。 |
| 2044 | Your average consumer might pay a few pennies more for | 你一般的消费者可能要多付几分钱 |
| 2045 | a shower, but then the almond farmers who consume a lot of the water will cut back on using fresh | 喝了很多水的杏仁农 就会用新鲜的 |
| 2046 | water and almond farming may move to a part of the country where water is more abundant. | 水和杏的耕作可能转移到水比较丰富的国家的一部分。 |
| 2047 | Properly pricing externalities can save resources in a tremendous way. | 适当定价外在因素可以极大地节省资源。 |
| 2048 | It's a good framework to | 这是一个很好的框架 |
| 2049 | think about how to be effective when you want to do things like save the environment rather than | 思考如何有效 当你想要做的东西,比如 拯救环境而不是 |
| 2050 | things that won't actually amount to anything. | 没有什么意义 |
| 2051 | One of the most common questions we get from people | 我们从人那里得到的最常见问题之一 |
| 2052 | is how do I get the time to start investing in myself? | 我怎么会有时间开始投资自己? |
| 2053 | I have a job. | 我有一个工作。 |
| 2054 | I'll kick off the answer | 我会踢出答案 |
| 2055 | with one of the tweets from the cutting room floor where you said, you will need to rent your time to | 用剪切室的一条推文 在那里你说,你需要 租你的时间 |
| 2056 | get started. | 开始吧 |
| 2057 | This is only acceptable when you are learning and saving, preferably in a business where | 这只有在你学习和储蓄时才能被接受,最好是在企业中 |
| 2058 | society does not yet know how to train people and apprenticeship is the only model. | 社会尚不知道如何培训人,学徒是唯一的模式。 |
| 2059 | You're going to | 你会 |
| 2060 | have to work starting out unless you happen to be born rich, in which case you probably won't have | 要开始工作 除非你碰巧生来就有钱了 否则你可能不会有 |
| 2061 | the motivation to make money in the first place. | 最初赚钱的动机。 |
| 2062 | If you're going to do the work, join a business | 如果你要做这个工作, 加入一个企业 |
| 2063 | where apprenticeship matters. | 学徒问题。 |
| 2064 | Warren Buffett went and tried to work for Benjamin Graham straight | 沃伦·巴菲特去为本杰明·格雷厄姆工作 |
| 2065 | with school to learn how to be a value investor and he offered to work for free and Ben Graham said, | 在学校学习如何成为价值投资人 他主动提出免费工作 班·格雷厄姆说 |
| 2066 | you're overpriced. | 你太贵了 |
| 2067 | It's true in that these apprenticeship businesses, you're probably | 这些学徒生意,你可能 |
| 2068 | making a sacrifice in terms of short-term career to work there, but try to learn something where | 以短期职业为代价去那儿工作 但试着学点什么 |
| 2069 | people haven't quite figured out how to teach it yet. | 人们还没有想好怎么教它 |
| 2070 | That can happen if you're working in a | 如果你在医院工作,那就有可能 |
| 2071 | field that is brand new and quickly expanding, so no one has figured it out or it's a field that's | 所以没人能想明白 或者是这个领域 |
| 2072 | very circumstantial where the details really matter and it's always moving. | 在细节真正重要的地方 非常间接 它总是在移动 |
| 2073 | For example, | 举例来说, |
| 2074 | fund investments or investing in general is one of those skills. | 资金投资或一般投资就是这些技能之一。 |
| 2075 | Entrepreneurship is one of those | 创业是其中之一 |
| 2076 | skills. | 技术。 |
| 2077 | One of the most coveted jobs that's come up in Silicon Valley in the last half decade or so | 这是过去半年里 硅谷最贪婪的工作之一 |
| 2078 | is being a chief of staff or an entrepreneur where the brightest young kids will follow the | 身为幕僚长或企业家 最聪明的孩子会跟随 |
| 2079 | CEO or the entrepreneur around and do whatever that person needs them to do. | 首席执行官或企业家 随他们需要做什么 |
| 2080 | In many cases, | 在许多情况下, |
| 2081 | they were overqualified for the position. | 他们的任职资格过高 |
| 2082 | You may have someone who has two graduate degrees | 你也许有个人有两个研究生学位 |
| 2083 | who is essentially running the CEO's laundry for that day because that's the most important | 他主要经营CEO的洗衣店 因为那是最重要的 |
| 2084 | thing that needs to be done, but at the same time, they're also going to be sitting in all the highest | 但与此同时 他们也会坐在最高层 |
| 2085 | end staff meetings. | 结束工作人员会议。 |
| 2086 | They can be privy to all the venture fundraising decks and all the stress and | 他们可以进入所有 风险筹款甲板 和所有的压力和 |
| 2087 | theatrics, innovation and knowledge that can only come from being next to the entrepreneur | 戏剧、创新和知识,只有靠企业家才能产生 |
| 2088 | because the entrepreneur is willing to do anything and everything to make their company successful | 因为企业家愿意做任何事情和一切 让他们的公司成功 |
| 2089 | and the chief of staff is accompanying them and learning. | 幕僚长陪同他们学习。 |
| 2090 | Now, obviously, this is very Silicon | 很明显,这是非常硅 |
| 2091 | Valley-centric tech company advice. | 谷心科技公司建议. |
| 2092 | If you are currently stuck in a normal job and you don't | 如果你现在被困在正常的工作里,你不会 |
| 2093 | have the opportunity to learn an apprenticeship model and you need to make money, then go ahead | 有机会学习学徒模式 你需要赚钱,然后继续 |
| 2094 | and do that job, but even within the context of that job, try to be innovative, sign up to take | 并做那份工作, 但即使在这份工作的范围内, 尝试创新, |
| 2095 | new challenges, new responsibilities, find the part of the job that has the steepest learning curve. | 新的挑战,新的责任,找到工作最陡峭的学习曲线。 |
| 2096 | What you're really trying to avoid is repetitive drudgery. | 你真正想要避免的是重复的劳累。 |
| 2097 | Repetitive drudgery doesn't serve | 重复劳累是没用的 |
| 2098 | anybody. | 谁都行 |
| 2099 | Then you're essentially just counting the time until your job is automated away. | 那你基本上只是在计算你的工作自动化之前的时间 |
| 2100 | Even if you're a barista at the coffee shop, try to figure out how to make connections with the | 就算你是咖啡店的女律师 也想个办法 |
| 2101 | customers. | 顾客 |
| 2102 | Try to figure out how to innovate on what you're offering them on your basic service | 试着找出如何创新 你在基础服务上提供什么 |
| 2103 | and delight the customer. | 并喜欢顾客。 |
| 2104 | What will happen is managers, founders, owners, they notice. | 会发生什么是管理者,创始人,所有者,他们注意到。 |
| 2105 | The hardest thing for any founder is to find people who will work with them who have founder | 任何创始人最难的就是找到 与创始人合作的人 |
| 2106 | mentality. | 心态。 |
| 2107 | That's just a fancy way of saying they care enough. | 那只是说他们足够在乎的妙法 |
| 2108 | What most people will say, | 大多数人会说什么, |
| 2109 | well, I'm not the founder. | 我不是创始人。 |
| 2110 | I'm not being paid enough to care. | 我没有得到足够的报酬去关心。 |
| 2111 | Actually, you are. | 实际上,你是。 |
| 2112 | The knowledge | 知识 |
| 2113 | and the skills that you gain by having founder mentality set you up to be a founder down the | 以及你从创始人心态中获得的技能 让你成为创始人 |
| 2114 | line and it pays you in that sense. | 和它支付你在这个意义上。 |
| 2115 | You can get a lot out of almost any position. | 你可以得到很多 几乎从任何位置。 |
| 2116 | You just have to | 你只需要这样 |
| 2117 | put a lot into it. | 投入了很多东西 |
| 2118 | If I'm working a job and I want to figure out if I should get accountability, | 如果我在工作 我想弄清楚我是否该接受问责 |
| 2119 | judgment, specific knowledge, leverage, it sounds like you're saying the one thing to optimize for | 判断,特定的知识,杠杆, 听起来你是在说 唯一可以优化的东西 |
| 2120 | is specific knowledge out of all those things if you can. | 如果可以的话,是所有这些事物中的具体知识。 |
| 2121 | Judgment takes experience, takes a lot | 判断需要经验,需要很多 |
| 2122 | of time to build up. | 时间积累。 |
| 2123 | You have to put yourself in positions where you can exercise judgment. | 你必须让自己处于可以行使判断力的位置. |
| 2124 | That'll | 那会 |
| 2125 | come from taking on accountability. | 来自于承担责任。 |
| 2126 | Leverage is something that society gives you much later. | 杠杆是社会以后给你的 |
| 2127 | Once you've demonstrated your judgment, unless you learn a code or you become good with media, | 一旦你展现了你的判断, 除非你学习一个代码或 你变得好与媒体, |
| 2128 | these are permissionless leverage. | 这些是无授权的杠杆。 |
| 2129 | Leverage comes later. | 利弗瑞格会来 |
| 2130 | Judgment comes later. | 判决在后. |
| 2131 | Accountability, | 问责制, |
| 2132 | you can take on immediately. | 你可以马上接受 |
| 2133 | You can say, hey, I'll take charge of this thing that nobody wants to | 你可以说,嘿,我负责这件事 没有人想 |
| 2134 | take charge of. | 负责。 |
| 2135 | Accountability is where you can step up, but then you're publicly putting your neck | 问责制是你们可以挺身而出的地方,但你们要公开下手 |
| 2136 | on the chopping block, so you have to deliver. | 在切碎块, 所以你必须交付。 |
| 2137 | Specific knowledge gets built up by taking on | 掌握具体知识 |
| 2138 | accountability for things that other people don't know how to do and that perhaps you enjoy doing | 对别人不知道怎么做的事情 负责,也许你喜欢做 |
| 2139 | or you're naturally inclined towards doing. | 或者你自然倾向于做。 |
| 2140 | You could be working in a factory and it may turn out | 你可以在工厂工作,结果可能 |
| 2141 | that the hardest thing in the factory is knowing how to raise capital to keep the factory running. | 工厂里最难的是知道如何筹集资本来维持工厂的运作. |
| 2142 | That's what the owner of the factory is always stressed out about. | 工厂老板总是强调这一点. |
| 2143 | If you notice this and you're | 如果你注意到这一点,你是 |
| 2144 | I'm good at balancing my checkbook and a good head for numbers and I'm good at watching money, | 我擅长平衡我的支票簿 和良好的头数 我擅长看钱, |
| 2145 | but I haven't really raised money before. | 但我以前没有真的筹到钱 |
| 2146 | You offer your help and become the owner's sidekick | 你愿意帮忙,成为老板的帮手 |
| 2147 | in that regard. | 在这方面。 |
| 2148 | You help solve their biggest problem. | 你帮助解决他们最大的问题。 |
| 2149 | You'll become the heir apparent. | 你会成为继承人 |
| 2150 | Early on, find things where you have any interest and take on accountability. | 早点发现你有兴趣的地方 接受问责 |
| 2151 | Don't worry about | 别担心 |
| 2152 | short-term compensation. | 短期补偿。 |
| 2153 | If you dive into the edge of knowledge, which nobody knows how to solve, | 如果你潜入知识的边缘, 没有人知道如何解决, |
| 2154 | and you solve the hard problems taking on accountability, people will line up behind | 你解决了责任追究的难题 人们会排在后面 |
| 2155 | you. | 你们 |
| 2156 | The leverage will come. | 杠杆会来 |
| 2157 | There are a couple other related tweets to this topic from the | 也有几则其他相关推文, |
| 2158 | cutting room floor that I'll read out. | 剪掉房间地板,我会读出来。 |
| 2159 | First, the technology industry is a great place to acquire | 首先,技术产业是获得 |
| 2160 | specific knowledge. | 具体知识。 |
| 2161 | The frontier is always moving forward. | 边疆始终在前进. |
| 2162 | If you were genuinely intellectually | 如果你是真正的知识分子 |
| 2163 | curious, you will acquire the knowledge ahead of others. | 好奇的是,你会先获得别人的知识 |
| 2164 | Real technology is around us everywhere. | 真正的技术在我们周围到处都是。 |
| 2165 | The spoon was technology once. | 勺子曾经是技术 |
| 2166 | Fire was technology once, but once we figured out how to make it work, | 火曾经是技术 但一旦我们想出办法 |
| 2167 | it disappeared in the background and became part of our everyday lives. | 它在背景中消失 成为我们日常生活的一部分 |
| 2168 | Technology is by definition the intellectual frontier. | 技术顾名思义是知识前沿. |
| 2169 | It's taking the things that are | 这需要的东西是 |
| 2170 | recent from science or from culture that we have not yet figured out how to mass produce, | 最近从科学或文化 我们还没有想出 如何大规模生产, |
| 2171 | and it's figuring out how to commercialize it, how to make it available to everybody. | 它正在研究如何将其商业化, 如何向所有人提供。 |
| 2172 | Technology will always be where you can pick up specific knowledge that is valuable to society | 技术将永远是能够获取对社会有价值的具体知识的地方 |
| 2173 | that doesn't quite understand yet. | 还不太明白 |
| 2174 | For example, if I become a world-class expert in machine learning | 例如,如果我成为世界一流的机器学习专家 |
| 2175 | just when machine learning is starting to take off and I got there through my genuine intellectual | 当机器学习开始起飞, 我到达那里 通过我真正的智力 |
| 2176 | interest and I bet my career on it, I'm going to do really well. | 我敢打赌,我的职业生涯, 我会做得很好。 |
| 2177 | But 20 years from now, | 但20年后,我们开始 |
| 2178 | machine learning may be second hat. | 机器学习可能是第二顶帽子。 |
| 2179 | There are also timeless forms of specific knowledge. | 具体知识也有永恒的形式. |
| 2180 | For example, if you're good at persuading people, it's probably a skill that you picked up early on | 举例来说,如果你擅长说服别人, 这可能是你早期学会的技巧 |
| 2181 | life. | 活着 |
| 2182 | It's always going to apply because persuading people is always going to be valuable. | 它总是会适用,因为说服人们总是有价值。 |
| 2183 | This is one of those skills that's generic. | 这是普通技能之一。 |
| 2184 | It probably alone is not enough to build a career on. | 光靠它可能不足以维持事业。 |
| 2185 | It needs to be combined a skill stack. | 它需要结合一个技能堆。 |
| 2186 | You might combine persuasion with accounting combined with | 你可以把说服和会计结合起来 |
| 2187 | understanding, for example, semiconductor production lines, and now all of a sudden, | 例如,理解半导体生产线, 现在突然, |
| 2188 | you're the best semiconductor salesperson that becomes the best semiconductor company CEO. | 你是最佳半导体销售员 成为最佳半导体公司CEO |
| 2189 | There are timeless specific knowledge skills. | 拥有永恒的具体知识技能。 |
| 2190 | Those are skills I would say that can pretty | 这些都是技能,我会说,可以漂亮 |
| 2191 | much never be taught. | 从来没有教过多少 |
| 2192 | And then there are timely specific knowledge skills which come and go. | 然后有及时的具体知识技能 来来去去。 |
| 2193 | But even those tend to have fairly long shelf lives of decade or two decades or three decades. | 但是,即使是那些国家也往往有相当长的十年、二十年或三十年的保存寿命。 |
| 2194 | So technology is a good place to find those specific skill sets. | 技术是找到这些特殊技能的好地方。 |
| 2195 | And if you can bring in | 如果你能带来 |
| 2196 | a more generic specialized knowledge skill sets. | 一套更通用的专门知识。 |
| 2197 | The other tweet from the cutting room floor was | 另一则剪切室的推文是 |
| 2198 | related to accountability in companies. | 与公司问责制有关。 |
| 2199 | It said companies don't know how to measure outputs, | 它说公司不知道如何衡量产出, |
| 2200 | so they measure inputs instead. | 故他们衡量投入。 |
| 2201 | Work in a way that your outputs are visible and measurable. | 工作方式,使您的输出是可见和可测量的. |
| 2202 | If you don't have accountability, do something different. | 如果你没有责任,就做别的事. |
| 2203 | The entire structure of rewarding people comes from the agricultural and industrial age where | 奖励人的整个结构来自农业和工业时代。 |
| 2204 | your inputs and your outputs matched up very closely. | 您的投入和产出非常接近。 |
| 2205 | The amount of hours that you put into | 你投入的小时数 |
| 2206 | doing something was a good rough proxy for what kind of output you were going to get. | 做一些事情 是一个很好的粗糙的代名词 对于什么样的产出 你会得到。 |
| 2207 | Today it's extremely non-linear. | 今日极非线性. |
| 2208 | One good investment decision can make a company 10 or 100 | 一个好的投资决定可以让一个公司10或100 |
| 2209 | million dollars. | 百万块。 |
| 2210 | One good product feature can be difference between product market fit and complete | 一个良好的产品特征是产品市场合适和完整的区别 |
| 2211 | failure. | 失败。 |
| 2212 | So judgment and accountability matter much much more. | 因此,判断和问责制更为重要。 |
| 2213 | And you want the accountability | 你却要负责 |
| 2214 | because sometimes the best engineers or the best salespeople are the ones who don't work very hard | 因为有时候最好的工程师或者最好的推销员 就是那些不努力工作的人 |
| 2215 | but then they'll ship that one critical product at just the right time or they'll make that one | 但是他们会在适当的时候运送关键产品 否则他们就会制造 |
| 2216 | sale or that one huge deal that will make the company or at least make the numbers for the | 卖掉,或者做一个大交易 让公司或至少做数字 |
| 2217 | quarter. | 4个季度。 |
| 2218 | It's very important that people are able to tell that you had a role in that. | 非常重要的是,人们能够告诉 你在这个角色。 |
| 2219 | That doesn't | 不是这样的 |
| 2220 | mean that you stomp all over your team. | 意思是你踩遍了你的队伍 |
| 2221 | Humans are extremely sensitive to people who take too much | 人类对吃太多的人非常敏感 |
| 2222 | credit. | 信贷。 |
| 2223 | So you do want to be the kind of person that is always giving out credit but the smart | 所以,你确实想成为那种 总是给予信用的人 但聪明人 |
| 2224 | people will know who was responsible. | 人们会知道是谁干的 |
| 2225 | There are jobs where you're not customer facing enough, | 有些工作你不够面对客户 |
| 2226 | you're kind of a cog in the machine and you sacrifice accountability to some degree. | 你是机器里的一窝,你牺牲了某种程度的责任。 |
| 2227 | An example is when you're a consultant. | 一个例子是当你是顾问。 |
| 2228 | As a consultant often you're giving the best ideas | 作为一名顾问 你经常给出最好的主意 |
| 2229 | and the best outcome but it's being delivered through some person who's working within the | 和最好的结果,但它正在交付 通过某人 谁在工作在 |
| 2230 | organization. | 组织。 |
| 2231 | At that point you may not have visibility to the top people in the organization | 那时你可能对组织的高层人物没有知名度 |
| 2232 | but you may be hidden behind a screen and that's just a trade-off that you're making in exchange | 但你可能藏在屏幕后面 那只是交换交换 |
| 2233 | for your independence as a consultant because you're not willing to play the corporate rat race | 为你独立当顾问,因为你不愿意参加大公司大赛 |
| 2234 | or the corporate ladder game. | 或者企业的梯子游戏。 |
| 2235 | Realize that with accountability you can get a lot more credit when | 有了责任心 你就能得到更多的信用 |
| 2236 | things go right. | 事情进展顺利 |
| 2237 | Of course the downside is you get hurt a lot more when things go wrong. | 当然,坏处是 当事情发生时,你更会受到伤害。 |
| 2238 | You stick | 你坚持 |
| 2239 | your neck out you have to be willing to be blamed, sacrificed and even attacked. | 你的脖子要被责备 牺牲甚至攻击 |
| 2240 | So if you're the | 所以,如果你是一个 |
| 2241 | kind of person that thrives in a high accountability environment you're naturally also going to end up | 那种在高度负责的环境下蓬勃发展的人 你自然也会最终 |
| 2242 | very thick skin over time. | 一段时间以来皮肤很厚 |
| 2243 | You're going to get hurt a lot. | 你会经常受伤的 |
| 2244 | People are going to attack you if you fail. | 如果你失败了 人们会攻击你 |
| 2245 | If you're working a job I think you can apply a lot of the principles of the tweet storm inside | 如果你在工作 我想你可以把推特暴风雨的原理应用进去 |
| 2246 | the job like we just discussed including other ones like partnering with rational optimists. | 就像我们刚刚讨论过的工作 包括其他的,比如与理性乐观主义者合作 |
| 2247 | You can find people in the organization who are optimistic and rational that have energy, | 你可以在组织里找到 乐观和理性的人 有能量, |
| 2248 | integrity and intelligence. | 正直和聪明 |
| 2249 | The flip side of this is that once you get some specific knowledge | 翻转的一面是 一旦你得到一些特定的知识 |
| 2250 | one way to scale it is to start training apprentices that you can then outsource | 一种方式是开始训练学徒 然后外包 |
| 2251 | some of your tasks to. | 一些你的任务。 |
| 2252 | For example I made a bunch of good investments and I figured out a | 比如,我做了一堆好投资 我发现 |
| 2253 | little bit here and there about the venture business and I could keep doing that. | 一点点在这里和那里 关于风险业务 我可以继续这样做。 |
| 2254 | I could | 我会 |
| 2255 | keep just investing as an investor but instead I co-founded this project called Spearhead where | 继续投资,作为投资人 但我共同创办了这个名为"先锋"的项目 |
| 2256 | we train up-and-coming young founders to also become angel and venture investors and we give | 我们培养新颖的年轻创始人 同时成为天使和风险投资人 |
| 2257 | them a checkbook. | 他们有一个支票簿。 |
| 2258 | It's an apprenticeship model. | 这是一个学徒模式。 |
| 2259 | They come to us with specific deals that they're | 他们来我们这里有具体交易 |
| 2260 | looking at and we help them think through every unique situation and we basically apprentice them | 看,我们帮助他们思考 每一个独特的情况 我们基本上学徒他们 |
| 2261 | under us to learn the venture business and it's much more scalable. | 在我们的下层学习 冒险业务 它更可扩展。 |
| 2262 | We have classes and talks where | 我们有课和谈话的地方 |
| 2263 | we kind of tell them what we know and then there are office hours when they actually bring in the | 我们告诉他们我们所知道的 然后有办公时间 当他们真正带来 |
| 2264 | deals and they talk to us about specific deals and it turns out the classes and talks are largely | 他们和我们谈具体交易 结果发现课和谈话基本上都是 |
| 2265 | worthless. | 没用 |
| 2266 | You can give all the generic advice you need to give in about an hour and then after | 你可以在一小时后给出你需要的所有一般建议 |
| 2267 | that all the additional advice is sort of circumstantial that essentially cancels to zero | 所有补充建议都是间接的 基本上取消为零 |
| 2268 | if you try to give it in some top-down fashion but the office hours are incredibly useful. | 如果你试图以某种自上而下的方式给出, 但办公时间是令人难以置信的有用。 |
| 2269 | It just reinforces that this is one of those skills that can only be learned on the job | 它只是强调,这是这些技能之一 只能在工作上学习 |
| 2270 | and when you find a skill that can only be learned on the job by doing it that is a good indicator | 当你找到一种只能通过工作来学习的技能时,那就是一个很好的指标 |
| 2271 | that you're dealing with specific knowledge. | 你正在处理具体的知识。 |
| 2272 | Another good indicator with your dealing with | 另一个很好的指标 你处理 |
| 2273 | knowledge is when you ask the person who's doing it what do you do every day and they can't give | 知识是当你问谁这样做 你每天做什么 他们不能给 |
| 2274 | you a straight answer or it's something on the lines of well every day is different based on | 直接回答,否则每天井里的东西 都不同 |
| 2275 | what's going on that's a good indicator you're learning specific knowledge. | 到底发生了什么,这是一个很好的指标 你正在学习特定的知识。 |
| 2276 | The thing is so | 事情是这样的 |
| 2277 | complicated and it's so dependent upon circumstances that it can't be boiled down | 事情很复杂 情况很复杂 无法煮熟 |
| 2278 | into a textbook form or communicated by a make money consultant. | 以教科书形式或由赚钱顾问通报。 |
| 2279 | The mafia figured out this | 黑手党发现了这个 |
| 2280 | apprenticeship model a long time ago the best way to end up running one of the families was | 很久以前的学徒模式 最终管理一个家庭的最好办法是 |
| 2281 | to become the driver for the dawn of one of the families. | 成为其中一家人黎明的车手 |
| 2282 | It's a complicated business. | 这是一个复杂的业务。 |
| 2283 | Tony | 东尼 |
| 2284 | Soprano said I'm a businessman who has to enforce my own contracts. | 索波诺说,我是一个商人,必须执行我自己的合同. |
| 2285 | Very complicated business. | 非常复杂的生意。 |
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