如何有效减少腹部脂肪｜胰岛素专家David Unwin 博士
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:00 | Ask me what I think is really true. | 问我认为什么是真的 |
| 0:02 | I think that consciousness is something that emerges | 我认为意识是 出现的东西 |
| 0:05 | when there's a sufficient amount of information processing | 当有足够的信息处理量 |
| 0:09 | that itself is carried by the motion of particles | 由粒子运动所携带 |
| 0:12 | through various interconnected structures. | 通过各种相互关联的结构。 |
| 0:15 | Is my dog conscious? | 我的狗有意识吗? |
| 0:16 | It is, but I think it's got a different level | 是的,但我觉得它有不同的水平 |
| 0:18 | of consciousness. | 意识。 |
| 0:20 | You can tell when they're feeling good, | 你可以看到当他们感觉很好, |
| 0:23 | happy or sad or frustrated or intrigued. | 快乐或悲伤或沮丧或感兴趣。 |
展开字幕全文（1427 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ask me what I think is really true. | 问我认为什么是真的 |
| 2 | I think that consciousness is something that emerges | 我认为意识是 出现的东西 |
| 3 | when there's a sufficient amount of information processing | 当有足够的信息处理量 |
| 4 | that itself is carried by the motion of particles | 由粒子运动所携带 |
| 5 | through various interconnected structures. | 通过各种相互关联的结构。 |
| 6 | Is my dog conscious? | 我的狗有意识吗? |
| 7 | It is, but I think it's got a different level | 是的,但我觉得它有不同的水平 |
| 8 | of consciousness. | 意识。 |
| 9 | You can tell when they're feeling good, | 你可以看到当他们感觉很好, |
| 10 | happy or sad or frustrated or intrigued. | 快乐或悲伤或沮丧或感兴趣。 |
| 11 | The ears change, the eyes change, | 耳朵变了 眼睛变了 |
| 12 | the shape of the face. | 脸的形状。 |
| 13 | You can't help but ascribe an inner world to that. | 你无法不把内心世界说成是这样的 |
| 14 | And again, I always worry that the dogs like the fish | 再说一遍 我总是担心狗喜欢鱼 |
| 15 | or like these humans think they're so damn special, | 或像这些人类 认为他们是如此他妈的特殊, |
| 16 | but we actually are well-developed, well beyond them. | 但我们实际上很发达,远远超出他们。 |
| 17 | And we're just playing along. | 我们只是一起玩 |
| 18 | In fact, in New York City, who picks up the poop, right? | 实际上,在纽约市, 谁捡起大便,对不对? |
| 19 | We pick up the poop. | 我们拿起大便。 |
| 20 | So the dog walks along as like this, you know, | 狗就这样走了 |
| 21 | king-like being and we behind them | 像国王一样,我们跟在他们后面 |
| 22 | with these little plastic bags. | 带着这些塑料袋 |
| 23 | So who's really in charge? | 那到底是谁负责? |
| 24 | But putting that to the side, | 但把那个放在一边, |
| 25 | I do think that the dogs and the cats | 我觉得狗和猫 |
| 26 | have a level of conscious awareness. | 具有一定程度的意识。 |
| 27 | And I think you go down through the animal kingdom. | 我想你穿过动物王国 |
| 28 | If you were to ask me, does an insect have consciousness? | 如果你问我,昆虫有意识吗? |
| 29 | Then I'm less clear. | 那我就说得不太清楚了 |
| 30 | I suspect not. | 我怀疑没有 |
| 31 | If you ask me whether a virus or a bacterium | 如果你问我是病毒还是细菌 |
| 32 | has consciousness, I don't think so. | 有意识,我不这么认为。 |
| 33 | I don't think there's adequate information | 我不认为有足够的信息 |
| 34 | processing capacity in those structures | 这些结构的处理能力 |
| 35 | to have the kind of rich inner world | 拥有丰富的内心世界 |
| 36 | that we would normally ascribe to a conscious being. | 我们通常会把一个有意识的人说成是神灵 |
| 37 | But that's all that I think it is. | 但这就是我想的 |
| 38 | I don't think that there's some uber universal consciousness | 我不认为有 uber 普遍意识 |
| 39 | that's out there that we go back to when we die. | 我们死后会回到那里 |
| 40 | Not that I wouldn't like it. | 我不是不喜欢它。 |
| 41 | I just don't think it's true. | 我只是不认为这是真的。 |
| 42 | Moreover, I can understand why humans | 而且,我可以理解为什么人类 |
| 43 | would introduce this idea. | 将提出这个想法。 |
| 44 | Again, it's Ernest Becker and the denial of death. | 再说一遍,是欧内斯特・贝克尔和否认死亡 |
| 45 | How wonderful to say, yeah, our bodies die, sure. | 多么美妙的说,是的,我们的身体死了,当然。 |
| 46 | But our consciousness, it doesn't die. | 但是我们的意识,它不会死。 |
| 47 | Our consciousness, it floats off | 我们的知觉会浮出水面 |
| 48 | and it rejoins the universal. | 它会重新加入世界 |
| 49 | Wow, that makes you feel good. | 哇,这让你感觉很好。 |
| 50 | And we tell these stories that make us feel good | 我们讲这些故事,让我们感觉很好 |
| 51 | and there's nothing wrong with that. | 和没有错。 |
| 52 | However, I do think it's important | 不过,我觉得这很重要 |
| 53 | that we see them from what they are, | 我从他们的本位看见他们, |
| 54 | which are human authored stories | 是人类编造的故事 |
| 55 | to combat our own recognition that we are mortal beings. | 对抗我们自己承认我们是凡人 |
| 56 | Moving on to the next one is the universe there | 下一个是宇宙 |
| 57 | on the little card. | 在小卡片上。 |
| 58 | We talked about this a little bit | 我们聊了一会儿 |
| 59 | and you've given your answer already, | 你已经给出了答案 |
| 60 | but do you think the universe is infinite? | 你认为宇宙是无限的吗? |
| 61 | I don't know, but I'm gonna put it sort of around here. | 我不知道,不过我要把它放在这里 |
| 62 | In fact, lately, I should tell you, | 事实上,最近,我应该告诉你, |
| 63 | the work that I've been doing has imagined | 我一直在做的工作 想象 |
| 64 | that the universe is not infinite. | 宇宙不是无限的。 |
| 65 | So I've been doing a lot of scientific exploration | 所以我做了很多科学探索 |
| 66 | with mathematics with a handful of colleagues | 和几个同事的数学 |
| 67 | and the kind of weird things that can happen | 和那种奇怪的事情 会发生 |
| 68 | if it's not infinite. | 如果不是无限的。 |
| 69 | And it's very interesting. | 且道甚为有趣. |
| 70 | There's a lot of mileage that you can extract | 有很多里程你可以提取 |
| 71 | from a universe that you go off in that way | 从一个宇宙,你走的方式 |
| 72 | and you wind up coming back to your starting point, | 然后回到起点 |
| 73 | much like you would on the surface of the earth. | 就像你在地球表面一样 |
| 74 | It's a finite extent. | 这是有限的范围。 |
| 75 | But if you ask me in my heart of hearts, | 但是,如果你问我 在我的心, |
| 76 | if I was forced to make a choice, | 如果我被迫做出选择, |
| 77 | I would say infinite with a medium level of confidence. | 我要说,有中等程度的信心是无限的。 |
| 78 | What about, do you think life could exist | 怎么样,你觉得生命可以存在吗? |
| 79 | outside of earth? | 在地球之外吗? |
| 80 | And I'll say intelligent life. | 我会说智慧生活。 |
| 81 | Intelligent life. | 智慧众生. |
| 82 | Do you think intelligent life exists outside of earth? | 你认为智能生命存在于地球之外吗? |
| 83 | Yeah, so for intelligent aliens, | 是啊,所以对于智能外星人, |
| 84 | I'm gonna definitely go a little bit more over here. | 我肯定会去 一点点在这里。 |
| 85 | I put it as, it's possible. | 我把它说成,这是可能的。 |
| 86 | Obviously it happened once, therefore it could happen again. | 显然它发生过一次,因此它可能再次发生。 |
| 87 | Obviously intelligence is not somehow contradictory | 很明显,情报并不矛盾 |
| 88 | to the way the universe evolves. | 对宇宙进化的方式。 |
| 89 | It can support conscious and intelligent beings, | 它能支撑有意识和智慧的生物, |
| 90 | but I think it may be special. | 但我觉得也许很特别 |
| 91 | Is there not a bit of a contradiction here, though, | 这里是不是有点矛盾? |
| 92 | with these two things, | 有了这两件事, |
| 93 | that you think the universe is infinite? | 你认为宇宙是无限的? |
| 94 | Oh, when I say this, | 哦,当我说这个, |
| 95 | I should say within the observable universe. | 我应该说在可观察的宇宙里 |
| 96 | Oh, okay. | 哦,还好。 |
| 97 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 98 | So in the entire expanse of the universe | 在宇宙的广阔中 |
| 99 | as opposed to the observable part, | 而非可观察的部分, |
| 100 | which again is a part that even in principle | 即使原则上,它也是 |
| 101 | we could have connection with, | 我们可以与, |
| 102 | then yeah, I would absolutely put in exactly the same place | 那么,我绝对会把 完全相同的地方 |
| 103 | because there'd be copies of us out there. | 因为外面有我们的拷贝 |
| 104 | But if we talk instead about, are we gonna get a signal? | 但是,如果我们谈论 相反, 我们会得到一个信号? |
| 105 | Are we gonna be visited? | 我们要被拜访吗? |
| 106 | Then I put that at much lower confidence. | 然后,我把这一点 低得多的信心。 |
| 107 | And in fact, I would say one thing about the visitation | 事实上,我会说一件事 关于拜访 |
| 108 | because you mentioned the interest | 因为你提到了利息 |
| 109 | that people have on aliens. | 人们对外星人有。 |
| 110 | I find it really odd that people are taken | 我觉得人被带走真的很奇怪 |
| 111 | with these photographs that are meant to sort of | 这些照片的本意是 |
| 112 | just catch the alien ship as it was racing. | 抓住赛车时的外星人 |
| 113 | If an alien could travel across the galaxy, say, | 如果外星人能穿越银河系 说 |
| 114 | to reach us, they are so technologically advanced | 找到我们,他们技术很先进 |
| 115 | that the idea that our archaic airplanes and their cameras | 我们古老的飞机和摄像机的想法 |
| 116 | could capture a photograph of them is ludicrous. | 可以拍到他们的照片是可笑的。 |
| 117 | They will be able to evade us in so simply | 他们能躲过我们 就这么简单 |
| 118 | that the idea that we just barely caught them | 我们只是勉强抓住他们的想法 |
| 119 | on our cameras is absolutely ridiculous. | 在我们的摄像机上是绝对荒谬的。 |
| 120 | Moreover, if they could travel to us, | 而且,如果他们能到我们这里 |
| 121 | again, I'm talking about traveling across light years. | 我说的是穿越光年 |
| 122 | I mean, our galaxy, 100,000 light years end to end. | 我们的银河系 十万光年终将结束 |
| 123 | To be able to traverse that requires | 能够穿越需要 |
| 124 | a level of technological sophistication | 技术先进程度 |
| 125 | that is so beyond anything that we can do. | 这超出了我们所能做的 |
| 126 | To imagine that beings that advanced | 想象那些进步的生物 |
| 127 | would be interested in us, | 会对我们感兴趣 |
| 128 | so interested that they would like kidnap us. | 他们很感兴趣,想绑架我们 |
| 129 | That'd be like saying, I was walking to the park yesterday. | 这就像说, 我昨天走到公园。 |
| 130 | Don't tell anyone, but I kidnapped an ant. | 别告诉任何人 但我绑架了一只蚂蚁 |
| 131 | There was an ant walking along and nobody was looking | 有只蚂蚁在走来走去 没人在看 |
| 132 | and I sort of kidnapped it. | 我绑架了它 |
| 133 | We don't do that because it's not interesting. | 我们不这样做是因为它不有趣。 |
| 134 | Similarly, we would not be of interest to the aliens | 同样,我们不会对外星人感兴趣 |
| 135 | because they're so incredibly advanced | 因为他们是如此惊人的先进 |
| 136 | that this idea that they're abducting us is just ludicrous. | 他们绑架我们的想法太可笑了 |
| 137 | Is it gonna be possible? | 有可能吗? |
| 138 | We were talking earlier on about the possibilities | 我们刚才在谈论可能性 |
| 139 | that artificial intelligence is gonna unlock. | 人工智能会解锁 |
| 140 | Is it possible within the laws of physics | 这在物理定律里有可能吗? |
| 141 | for us at some point when we get sufficiently intelligent | 当我们变得足够聪明的时候 |
| 142 | to travel across the universe? | 穿越宇宙吗? |
| 143 | It's a great question, it's a tough one. | 问之甚矣,其难也. |
| 144 | So if the technological advancement | 所以如果技术进步 |
| 145 | was simply making our ships faster, no. | 只是让我们的船更快,没有。 |
| 146 | Because even if you traveled near the speed of light, | 因为即使你走近光速 |
| 147 | which is the ultimate speed limit, | 这是最高限速, |
| 148 | to go to the nearest star, Alpha Centauri, | 去最近的恒星,阿尔法半人马座, |
| 149 | would take you four years, | 需要你四年时间 |
| 150 | even at the speed of light, to get there. | 即使以光速到达那里 |
| 151 | And then if you actually wanna go not just | 如果你真的想去的话... |
| 152 | to the nearby star, but to actually across the galaxy, | 但是要穿过银河系 |
| 153 | again, you're talking 100,000 years to do that. | 再说一遍,你说的是十万年 |
| 154 | So that brute straightforward approach will not succeed. | 因此,这种野蛮的直截了当的做法不会成功。 |
| 155 | However, there are exotic ideas | 不过,有些异国情调的想法 |
| 156 | of things called wormholes you've probably encountered. | 你可能遇到过叫虫洞的东西 |
| 157 | These are these ideas of a wormhole is like a tunnel. | 这些是虫洞就像隧道一样的想法。 |
| 158 | What is a tunnel? | 什么是隧道吗? |
| 159 | On earth, a tunnel is a shortcut | 在地球上,隧道是捷径 |
| 160 | that gets you from here to here | 让你从这里到这里 |
| 161 | without having to go over the mountain, right? | 不必过山,对不对? |
| 162 | Tunnel it right through. | 穿过隧道 |
| 163 | There's an analogous idea that people floated | 有类似的想法 人们漂浮 |
| 164 | in the universe where to get from here to there, | 在宇宙中从这里到那里 |
| 165 | there may be a shortcut, a kind of tunnel that connects them | 可能有一条捷径 一条连接他们的隧道 |
| 166 | and is a quicker way of getting from point A to point B. | 也是从A点到B点的更快方法 |
| 167 | We don't know if these tunnels through space exist. | 我们不知道这些穿过太空的隧道是否存在. |
| 168 | We don't know if they existed | 我们不知道他们是否存在 |
| 169 | whether we could actually get through them. | 我们能否真正渡过难关 |
| 170 | And so it's a highly speculative idea. | 所以这是一个高度投机的想法。 |
| 171 | But if they do exist and if we one day can create them | 但是如果它们真的存在 如果我们有一天能创造它们 |
| 172 | and manipulate and control them, | 并且操纵和控制他们, |
| 173 | then at least in principle, | 那么至少原则上, |
| 174 | we could take two distant locations | 我们可以去两个遥远的地方 |
| 175 | like this corner and this corner. | 像这个角落和这个角落。 |
| 176 | But imagine that we could manipulate this surface, | 但想象一下我们可以操纵这个表面, |
| 177 | fold it together to bring the two corners | 把它叠起来,把两角拉起来 |
| 178 | next to each other and build a little tunnel between them. | 彼此相邻,并在它们之间建个小隧道. |
| 179 | Then we can go from one end to the other | 然后我们可以从一端到另一端 |
| 180 | by going through that shortcut. | 穿过捷径 |
| 181 | That's a very far out idea. | 这是一个非常远的主意。 |
| 182 | But there's no evidence of it. | 但证无量. |
| 183 | There's no evidence at all. | 根本无证. |
| 184 | Now, let me just say again, much as we discussed earlier, | 现在,让我再说一遍, 就像我们刚才讨论的, |
| 185 | this idea is not just some wild late night musing | 这个想法不只是一些野性的深夜的黏液 |
| 186 | of a physicist. | 一个物理学家。 |
| 187 | It comes out of the math of Einstein's general relativity | 从爱因斯坦的广义相对论的数学中 |
| 188 | that these wormholes could exist. | 这些虫洞可能存在。 |
| 189 | In fact, Einstein himself in 1935 wrote a paper | 事实上,爱因斯坦本人在1935年写了一篇论文 |
| 190 | 和一个同事Nathan Rosen, | |
| 191 | where they introduced this idea that we now call wormholes. | 他们提出这个想法 我们现在称之为虫洞 |
| 192 | We're no further along in knowing whether wormholes | 我们不知道虫洞是不是真的 |
| 193 | are real than Einstein was back then. | 比当时的爱因斯坦更真实 |
| 194 | We've analyzed them. | 我们已经分析过了 |
| 195 | We've developed the mathematics. | 我们发展了数学 |
| 196 | Science fiction has taken this idea. | 科幻小说采纳了这个想法. |
| 197 | In Interstellar, I believe Matthew McConaughey | 在星际迷航中 我相信马修·麦考诺 |
| 198 | goes through a wormhole. | 穿过虫洞 |
| 199 | Jodie Foster通过一个接触。 | |
| 200 | You know, they're a ubiquitous feature of science fiction | 科幻小说里无处不在 |
| 201 | trying to allow for the kinds of travel across the galaxy | 试图让各种旅行穿越银河系 |
| 202 | to otherwise would be impossible. | 否则,就不可能实现。 |
| 203 | But whether this is actually real, nobody knows. | 但不管这是否是真的 没人知道 |
| 204 | What about time travel? | 那时间旅行呢? |
| 205 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 206 | Can we travel backwards in time within the laws of physics? | 我们能否在物理定律范围内 向后走? |
| 207 | Yeah, that is the way of phrasing it. | 是的,这就是措辞的方式。 |
| 208 | Because if you ask me the reverse question, | 因为如果你问我一个相反的问题, |
| 209 | can we travel to the future? | 我们可以去未来吗? |
| 210 | I would say, yeah, that kind of time travel | 我想说,是的,那种时间旅行 |
| 211 | we were highly confident of. | 我们非常有信心。 |
| 212 | So I don't have a little thing for that, | 所以,我没有什么小事情了, |
| 213 | but let's call this is time travel to the future, right? | 但是,让我们称之为时间旅行 未来,对不对? |
| 214 | I put it very, very high confidence for that. | 我对此非常非常有信心。 |
| 215 | You think we can travel to the future? | 你觉得我们能去未来吗? |
| 216 | Yes, in principle. | 是的,原则上。 |
| 217 | Executing it, a different story. | 执行它,一个不同的故事。 |
| 218 | But one of the things that emerges from Einstein's | 但爱因斯坦的作品中 |
| 219 | special and general relativity | 特殊和一般相对性 |
| 220 | is that the way time elapses for you and for me is variable | 时间的流逝对于你我来说是变幻莫测的 |
| 221 | depending upon how fast we move | 取决于我们行动的速度 |
| 222 | and the strength of the gravity that we experience. | 和我们经历的重力的力量。 |
| 223 | So for instance, if I wanna see what your life | 比如说,如果我想看看你的生活 |
| 224 | would be like 60 years from now, | 这将是像60年后, |
| 225 | Einstein laid out a blueprint for how I could do that. | 爱因斯坦为我如何做到这一点制定了蓝图。 |
| 226 | I build a spaceship. | 我造了一艘飞船 |
| 227 | I travel out into space near the speed of light. | 我走进太空 接近光速。 |
| 228 | I go for a certain period of time, maybe about six months. | 我走了一段时间,也许六个月左右 |
| 229 | I turn around, I come back six more months. | 我转身,我回来 六个月。 |
| 230 | I come back, I'm one year older, six months, six months, | 我回来了,我大了一岁,半年零六个月 |
| 231 | but you will be 60 years older | 但你会长到60岁 |
| 232 | if I traveled sufficiently close to the speed of light | 如果我足够接近光速 |
| 233 | because my clock would be ticking off slow | 因为我的时钟会慢下来 |
| 234 | compared to your clock. | 比起你的时钟 |
| 235 | Your clock went through 60 years | 你的钟已经60年了 |
| 236 | while my clock went through one year. | 我的时钟过了一年 |
| 237 | There is no physicist who knows what they are talking about | 没有物理学家知道他们在说什么 |
| 238 | who disputes this. | 谁不同意这一点。 |
| 239 | Now, it's not controversial, | 现在,它没有争议, |
| 240 | but if you then say to me, well, do it, | 但如果你对我说,那就动手吧 |
| 241 | I'd say, I don't know how to build a spaceship | 我说,我不知道如何建造飞船 |
| 242 | that goes that fast, at least not yet. | 速度很快 至少还没有 |
| 243 | You would only have aged one year. | 你只会长一岁 |
| 244 | But I would have aged 60 years. | 但我会长到60岁 |
| 245 | Could you then go back? | 你能回去吗? |
| 246 | Ah, I don't know. | 额,我不知道。 |
| 247 | And if you were to ask me to give my confidence | 如果你要我信任我的话 |
| 248 | on going back, I would say it's pretty low. | 回到过去,我会说它相当低。 |
| 249 | People have written proposals for how you could go back. | 人们已经写了建议 你如何回去。 |
| 250 | They do involve things like wormholes. | 它们确实涉及到诸如虫洞之类的东西. |
| 251 | That is one possibility | 这是唯一的可能 |
| 252 | because if you have a tunnel | 因为如果你有隧道 |
| 253 | from one point in space to another, | 从一个点到另一个点 |
| 254 | if you then move the openings at different speeds, | 如果你以不同的速度移动开口, |
| 255 | their clocks will tick off at different rates. | 他们的时钟会以不同的速度减速 |
| 256 | This clock may be before this clock. | 这钟可能在这钟之前 |
| 257 | So if I travel this way, I'm going one way in time. | 所以,如果我走这条路, 我会走一个方式的时间。 |
| 258 | If I'm traveling that way, I'm going the reverse way in time. | 如果我走那条路 我会及时逆路走 |
| 259 | But again, like we said before, | 再说一遍 就像我们之前说过的 |
| 260 | we don't know if wormholes are real. | 我们不知道虫洞是否是真的 |
| 261 | If they are real, | 如果它们是真的 |
| 262 | you might in principle be able to travel back. | 你原则上也许可以回去旅行 |
| 263 | But if you ask me, do I think that you can | 但是,如果你问我, 我认为你可以 |
| 264 | have low, low confidence that you can travel back. | 低,低的信心 你可以返回。 |
| 265 | You've used the word Einstein a few times. | 你用过爱因斯坦这个词几次 |
| 266 | And I think this generation, | 我认为这代人 |
| 267 | we exist with AI now and calculators | 我们现在和AI一起存在,还有计算器 |
| 268 | and all this incredible knowledge | 和所有不可思议的知识 |
| 269 | that has come from sort of standing on the shoulders | 这是从某种 站在肩膀上 |
| 270 | of so many of these giants. | 这么多这些巨人。 |
| 271 | Who do you think is the smartest person | 你认为谁是最聪明的人 |
| 272 | to have ever lived in your estimation? | 曾经生活在你的估计? |
| 273 | It's a tough one. | 难曰. |
| 274 | People often make it an easier question | 人们常常会让这个问题变得更容易 |
| 275 | by saying who's smarter, Isaac Newton or Albert Einstein? | 说谁更聪明 艾萨克·牛顿还是阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦? |
| 276 | And first, my answer is, | 首先,我的回答是, |
| 277 | when you're talking about that level, | 当你在谈论这个关卡时, |
| 278 | it doesn't matter who's smarter. | 不管谁更聪明 |
| 279 | But if you really press me, | 但是如果你真的逼我的话 |
| 280 | I think I'd say Isaac Newton. | 我想我会说艾萨克牛顿。 |
| 281 | Because Newton kind of went from nothing | 因为牛顿什么也没有 |
| 282 | to develop the laws of physics. | 发展物理定律。 |
| 283 | There were people before, | 之前还有人 |
| 284 | but there wasn't really a mindset | 但没有真正的心态 |
| 285 | that the universe should be articulable | 宇宙应该是可动的 |
| 286 | in a few mathematical equations. | 在几个数学方程中。 |
| 287 | And yet here comes along Isaac Newton | 然而,这里来到了艾萨克牛顿 |
| 288 | and he writes down the equation | 他写下方程式 |
| 289 | that we teach high school kids, | 我们教高中生, |
| 290 | F equals MA, force equals mass times acceleration, | F等于MA, 力等于质量乘加速, |
| 291 | which governs just about everything in the world around us, | 统治着我们周围的一切 |
| 292 | non-quantum mechanically. | 非量子机械。 |
| 293 | He writes down the law of gravity, | 他写下了引力定律 |
| 294 | F等于GM1 M2比R平方 | |
| 295 | articulating how the gravitational force works. | 阐明引力如何作用. |
| 296 | And he was sort of doing this on, | 他正在做这样的, |
| 297 | he invents calculus in order to be able to use that | 他发明微积分 以便能使用 |
| 298 | as a tool for articulating the laws of physics. | 作为阐明物理定律的工具. |
| 299 | I mean, he kind of went from | 我的意思是,他有点从 |
| 300 | no real architecture of physics | 没有真正的物理结构 |
| 301 | to a solid mathematical formulation. | 到一个坚实的数学配方。 |
| 302 | Einstein came along and there was already a lot of physics. | 爱因斯坦来了, 已经有很多物理。 |
| 303 | I think going from nothing to the first step, | 我想从无到有 第一步, |
| 304 | that's hard to imagine. | 这很难想象。 |
| 305 | Was Newton to some degree like neurodivergent? | 牛顿在某种程度上像神经潜水员吗? |
| 306 | How could he be so genius? | 他怎么会这么天才? |
| 307 | I wish I knew the answer to a question like that. | 我希望我知道这个问题的答案。 |
| 308 | Like, you know, what is it inside their heads | 就像,你知道,是什么 在他们的头上 |
| 309 | that allows them to do the things that just are superhuman | 让他们能做那些超人的事情 |
| 310 | or feel superhuman to us? | 还是觉得我们超人? |
| 311 | I have no idea. | 我不知道,我还不知道 |
| 312 | Now Newton was a kind of weird fella, right? | 现在牛顿是个怪人,对吧? |
| 313 | He was deeply religious as makes sense for the time. | 他当时很虔诚 |
| 314 | He was ultimately, you know, in the government | 他最终在政府里 |
| 315 | tracking down counterfeiters and hanging them. | 追踪伪造者并绞死他们 |
| 316 | I mean, there seems to be a certain curmudgeonly side of him | 我的意思是,似乎有 某种曲折的一面他 |
| 317 | that was also part of his genius. | 这也是他天才的一部分 |
| 318 | He once reportedly took a knitting needle | 据报他曾用针织针 |
| 319 | and stuck it in his eye between the ball and the socket | 插在球和插座之间 |
| 320 | to see if he could manipulate sight | 看看他能不能操纵视线 |
| 321 | through mechanical pressure. | 通过机械压力。 |
| 322 | I mean, who does these kinds of things, right? | 我的意思是,谁做这种事情,对不对? |
| 323 | So he was a different thinker, | 所以他是一个不同的思想家, |
| 324 | but clearly one who ultimately was able to see deeper. | 但显然,他终于能看见更深处。 |
| 325 | You know, and as he said, you know, | 你知道,正如他说的,你知道, |
| 326 | standing on the shoulders of giants, you know, | 站在巨人的肩膀上,你知道, |
| 327 | and there was a certain humility that came through. | 并有某种谦卑 通过。 |
| 328 | I mean, there's a beautiful quote | 我的意思是,有一个美丽的引言 |
| 329 | where he describes himself as a boy playing on the seashore | 在那里他形容自己是一个男孩 在海边玩耍 |
| 330 | having found a smoother shell and prettier pebble than most | 找到比大多数更光滑的外壳和更漂亮的卵石 |
| 331 | while the great ocean of truth, he said, | 当大海的真理降临的时候,他说: |
| 332 | lay before me all undiscovered. | 躺在我面前所有未被发现。 |
| 333 | He knew that we were just on the shore | 他知道我们在岸上 |
| 334 | and we'd taken our first baby step into the cosmic ocean | 我们迈出了第一个婴儿步进入宇宙海洋 |
| 335 | and there was much more to be discovered. | 还有很多事情要发现 |
| 336 | Is it conceivable that the next Newton or Einstein | 下一个牛顿或爱因斯坦 |
| 337 | is gonna be an artificial intelligence? | 会不会是人工智能? |
| 338 | Could it be Claude? | 会不会是克劳德? |
| 339 | Yes, it could absolutely be. | 是的,这是绝对的。 |
| 340 | Look, I like to think of scientific creativity | 你看,我喜欢思考 科学创造力 |
| 341 | or creativity in general in sort of three main buckets. | 或者一般的创造力 大约在三个主要桶。 |
| 342 | It's a course organization, but I think it's helpful. | 这是一个课程组织,但我觉得有帮助。 |
| 343 | One bucket of creativity is the ability | 一桶创造力就是能力 |
| 344 | to see the landscape of possibilities more fully | * 更全面地看待各种可能性的格局 |
| 345 | than a mortal human being. | 比凡人还难受 |
| 346 | And there's a lot that emerges from the ability to do that. | 从这个能力中产生了很多。 |
| 347 | For instance, you know, if you're a chess player, | 比如说 如果你是棋手 |
| 348 | you can see the spectrum of allowed moves | 您可以看到允许移动的光谱 |
| 349 | that are available to you more than the ordinary chess player. | 比普通棋手更适合你 |
| 350 | You know, if you're a scientist, | 你知道 如果你是科学家 |
| 351 | you can sort of see the landscape of ideas and equations | 你可以看到各种想法和方程式 |
| 352 | that you might bring to bear on a puzzle | 以便你们用一个谜题, |
| 353 | more than somebody else. | 胜过别人 |
| 354 | And that is what allows you to achieve greatness. | 这就是让你实现伟大的原因。 |
| 355 | Artificial systems, they have the entire landscape, right? | 人工系统,他们拥有整个景观,对不对? |
| 356 | They've read the entire internet. | 他们读了整个互联网。 |
| 357 | They've read every textbook. | 他们读过每本教科书 |
| 358 | They know everything that we have ever developed. | 他们知道我们所发展的一切。 |
| 359 | So in that kind of creativity, | 因此,在这种创造力, |
| 360 | obviously they're going to excel and we've seen that. | 显然,他们将会是优秀的,我们已经看到了。 |
| 361 | A human can't beat an AI any longer in chess. | 人类在围棋中再也不能击败AI. |
| 362 | A human can't beat an AI system in Go, right? | 人类不能打败Go的AI系统,对吧? |
| 363 | I mean, this famous example with AlphaGo, right? | 我的意思是,这个著名的例子 与AlphaGo,对不对? |
| 364 | Move 37 has become this sort of iconic move | 移动 37 成为这种标志性动作 |
| 365 | where, you know, Lee Sedol, the world champion is playing | 在那里,你知道,李赛铎, 世界冠军正在玩 |
| 366 | and you can see it on his face. | 你可以从他脸上看出来 |
| 367 | The AI makes a move and he smiles momentarily | 人工智能动了手脚 他一笑一笑 |
| 368 | and he's like, oh, it messed up. | 他就像,哦,这搞砸了。 |
| 369 | And then his face changes | 然后他的脸变了 |
| 370 | because he slowly realizes that wasn't a mistake. | 因为他慢慢意识到 这不是一个错误。 |
| 371 | Even the commentators, if you listen to them, | 即使是评论家 如果你听他们的话 |
| 372 | they're like, oh my God, the AI has made a mistake. | 他们就像,哦,我的上帝, AI犯了一个错误。 |
| 373 | What a blunder the AI has made. | AI犯了什么错误。 |
| 374 | And then within 20, 30 seconds you're like, oh, | 然后在20,30秒内,你喜欢,哦, |
| 375 | oh, that was genius. | 哦,这是天才。 |
| 376 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 377 | The AI could see the spectrum of possibilities | 大赦国际可以看到各种可能性 |
| 378 | more than a human being. | 胜过人. |
| 379 | So at that level of creativity, AI will win. | 因此,在这个层面的创造力,AI将获胜. |
| 380 | Second bin of creativity, second bucket | 第二桶创造力 第二桶 |
| 381 | is putting together divergent ideas | 正在汇集不同的想法 |
| 382 | in a way that no one has thought of before | 以没有人想到的方式 |
| 383 | and in that way making progress. | 并以此方式取得进展。 |
| 384 | You know, that's kind of what Einstein did | 爱因斯坦就是这样 |
| 385 | in general relativity. | 一般相对论。 |
| 386 | Put together Ramanian geometry and Newtonian gravity | 拉马尼亚几何和牛顿引力 |
| 387 | yielded the general theory of relativity. | 产生了相对论的一般理论。 |
| 388 | But again, AIs, since they know everything | 再说一遍,人工智能,因为他们知道一切 |
| 389 | that we've ever developed, | 我们曾经发展, |
| 390 | can combine things in a way | 能以某种方式结合事物 |
| 391 | that we would never have thought of. | 我们永远不会想到。 |
| 392 | The final domain is the one where somebody comes up | 最后一个领域就是有人出现的地方 |
| 393 | with something that nobody has ever imagined, | 与一些从未有过的想象, |
| 394 | ever thought of. | 从来没有想过。 |
| 395 | It's not just putting things together. | 这不只是把事情放在一起。 |
| 396 | It is radically new. | 这是全新的。 |
| 397 | That's the tough one. | 难曰. |
| 398 | We're still able to win in that category. | 我们仍然可以赢得这个类别。 |
| 399 | There are examples where people just come up with things | 有些例子让人们想到一些事情 |
| 400 | that where did it come from? | 它从哪里来的? |
| 401 | How do they think of that? | 他们怎么看? |
| 402 | If you develop an artificial system | 如果你开发出人工系统 |
| 403 | and allow it to have a life, | 并允许它有生命, |
| 404 | allow it to grow up, | 让它长大, |
| 405 | put it in an environment | 把它放在一个环境里 |
| 406 | where it actually has experiences of the sort | 在那里它实际上有 这样的体验 |
| 407 | that an Isaac Newton had. | 那个艾萨克牛顿的 |
| 408 | Could it be that that system then develops | 会不会是这个系统发展起来? |
| 409 | to a place where it can do the things | 到一个可以做事情的地方 |
| 410 | that we'd like to think are exclusively human? | 我们想认为是人类吗? |
| 411 | Coming up with something that is not previously represented | 提出以前没有代表的东西 |
| 412 | in the database on which the AI system has trained. | 在AI系统培训的数据库中。 |
| 413 | And so even this third more difficult | 所以这第三个更难 |
| 414 | or more pristine bucket of creativity, | 或更原始的创造力, |
| 415 | could an artificial system do that? | 人工系统能做到这一点吗? |
| 416 | I don't think there's a barrier. | 不觉有障. |
| 417 | I've done almost 700 interviews | 我已经面试了近700次了 |
| 418 | with some of the most interesting people in the world. | 和世界上最有趣的人在一起 |
| 419 | And one of the things you learn, which is unexpected, | 而其中一件事,你学到, 这是意外的, |
| 420 | is that vulnerability is the doorway to connection. | 脆弱性是连接的大门。 |
| 421 | And after sitting here for two, three hours with a guest, | 和一位客人坐了两三个小时后 |
| 422 | I feel a deep sense of connection to them. | 我觉得他们有很深的联系 |
| 423 | And as they leave, what I get them to do | 当他们离开时,我让他们做什么 |
| 424 | is to write a question in the diary of a CEO. | 在首席执行官的日记里写一个问题 |
| 425 | We've taken all of the questions from the diary of a CEO. | 我们从首席执行官的日记里 拿走了所有的问题 |
| 426 | We have put the question here on this card | 我们把问题放在这张牌上 |
| 427 | with the name of the person that wrote it. | 写作人的名字 |
| 428 | So you can sit at home as I do with my fiance | 这样你就可以跟我未婚夫一样坐在家里 |
| 429 | and my colleagues at work and other people in my life. | 以及我工作的同事和我的生活中的其他人。 |
| 430 | Whenever we get a minute, | 只要有时间 |
| 431 | we play the diary of a CEO conversation cards. | 我们玩CEO谈话卡的日记 |
| 432 | And it is incredible what happens. | 这是不可思议的。 |
| 433 | These are great if you're in a romantic relationship | 这些很棒,如果你在浪漫的关系中 |
| 434 | and you wanna connect your partner more. | 并且你想联系你的搭档更多。 |
| 435 | These are also great if you're in a team | 这些也很棒,如果你是团队的 |
| 436 | and you want to bond your team together. | 你想把你的团队团结在一起 |
| 437 | And I have to say, they're also great for families | 我不得不说,他们对于家庭也是很好的 |
| 438 | that wanna learn more about each other | 想多了解对方 |
| 439 | and that need a good excuse to spend some time | 这需要一个好借口 花一些时间 |
| 440 | in a digital world in the analog environment, | 在模拟环境中的数码世界, |
| 441 | connecting human to human. | 连接人类和人类。 |
| 442 | It is remarkable what the right question | 问题很突出 |
| 443 | at the right time can do. | 在合适的时间可以做到。 |
| 444 | 去日记.com | |
| 445 | and you can get these conversation cards right now. | 你可以马上拿到这些谈话卡 |
| 446 | There should be a button just down below here. | 这里下面应该有个按钮 |
| 447 | And if it says subscribed, you're already subscribed. | 如果上面写着签了 你早就签了 |
| 448 | If it says subscriber, that means you're not yet. | 如果说是订户,那就说明你还没订户 |
| 449 | And if you're not subscribed, | 如果你没被订阅 |
| 450 | please could you do us a favor and hit that button. | 麻烦你帮个忙 按下那个按钮 |
| 451 | It helps the show more than you know. | 这比你知道的更有助于演出 |
| 452 | And according to the algorithm, | 根据算法 |
| 453 | you're someone that watches our show, | 你是看我们节目的人 |
| 454 | but you haven't yet hit that button. | 但你还没有按下那个按钮 |
| 455 | Thank you so much. | 非常感谢 |
| 456 | This comes to one of our questions, | 我们有一个问题 |
| 457 | which is the skull there. | 那是头骨。 |
| 458 | Which is, do you believe it will be possible | 也就是说,你相信这是可能的 |
| 459 | to live forever? | 永远活着? |
| 460 | And again, I think about this in the context of AI | 再说一遍,我从AI的角度来考虑这个问题 |
| 461 | where you said it will be able to understand | 你说可以理解的地方 |
| 462 | that take us to the limit. | 这让我们到达极限。 |
| 463 | It's hard to understand how that isn't a solvable problem. | 很难理解为什么这不是一个可以解决的问题。 |
| 464 | In fact, a lot of the smartest people on earth, | 事实上,世界上很多最聪明的人, |
| 465 | including I think Elon Musk said it recently, | 包括我觉得伊隆·穆斯克最近说过 |
| 466 | that living another 100, 200, 300, 400, 500 years | 再活100、200、300、400、500岁 |
| 467 | seems to be within the laws of physics. | 似乎在物理定律之内 |
| 468 | Yes, I think that is absolutely | 是的,我认为这是绝对的 |
| 469 | within the realm of possibility. | 在可能的范畴。 |
| 470 | But 500 years is so different from forever. | 但五百年与永别. |
| 471 | Like when I hear forever, | 就像我永远听到 |
| 472 | I'm taking it kind of literally. | 我从字面上说 |
| 473 | Okay, yeah. | 好吧,没错。 |
| 474 | And so if forever doesn't mean 500 or a thousand, | 所以,如果永远不意味着500或1000, |
| 475 | if it means never ceases, | 如果这意味着永不停息, |
| 476 | then I have no confidence | 那我没有信心了 |
| 477 | that that kind of existence will be possible. | 这种存在是可能的。 |
| 478 | What about 500 years? | 500年怎么样? |
| 479 | 500 years, yeah, I would say again, | 五百年,是的,我会再说一遍, |
| 480 | not in our lifetime, which is sad. | 不是在我们这一辈子, 这是可悲的。 |
| 481 | I would put that at reasonably high confidence | 我会以合理的高度信心表示 |
| 482 | that hundreds of years will be within our ability. | 数百年将是我们力所能及的 |
| 483 | If we are on this sort of exponential of intelligence, | 如果我们在这种指数智能, |
| 484 | then it, and if 2021, | 然后它,如果2021, |
| 485 | we couldn't solve that math equation we're talking about, | 我们无法解决 我们所说的数学方程式, |
| 486 | but in 2026, we can. | 但是在2026年,我们可以。 |
| 487 | And you've got trillions of dollars now pumping | 你现在有好几万亿美元 |
| 488 | into these artificial intelligence systems | 进入这些人工智能系统 |
| 489 | to make them smarter and more powerful. | 让他们更聪明更强大 |
| 490 | It is conceivable that if we're on an exponential curve here, | 可以想象,如果我们在指数曲线上, |
| 491 | it could be within our lifetimes | 可能在我们的一生中 |
| 492 | that there is a discovery made about our telomeres | 我们的调音器有发现 |
| 493 | and whatever else it might be | 和它可能的其他东西 |
| 494 | that the guests on my show have talked about. | 我节目里的客人已经谈过了 |
| 495 | That means we can theoretically. | 这意味着我们可以理论上。 |
| 496 | But let me tell you why I'm skeptical of that. | 但是,让我告诉你为什么我怀疑这一点。 |
| 497 | Number one, right now we have a certain kind | 第一,现在我们有种 |
| 498 | of artificial intelligence. | 人工智能。 |
| 499 | It's basically large language models. | 基本为大型语言模型. |
| 500 | And that's a certain paradigm | 这是某种范式 |
| 501 | where the system is trained on an enormous number of tokens, | 在那里,系统 训练大量的代币, |
| 502 | an enormous number of words, | 无数言语, |
| 503 | basically the entire internet. | 基本上整个互联网。 |
| 504 | And based upon the statistics | 根据统计 |
| 505 | and the statistics of the statistics of the statistics | 统计统计 |
| 506 | of how the words are arranged, | 如何安排这些词, |
| 507 | the system is able to provide answers | 系统能够提供答案 |
| 508 | to questions that are coherent and insightful and so forth. | 提出一致和有见地的问题。 |
| 509 | There isn't necessarily an unlimited capacity | 不一定有无限的能力 |
| 510 | of that kind of artificial intelligence | 这种人工智能 |
| 511 | to continue to improve, right? | 继续改善,对不对? |
| 512 | And so it's not obvious to me that it's just a matter | 所以这对我来说并不明显 这只是个问题 |
| 513 | of pumping billions and billions of dollars, | 注入数十亿美元, |
| 514 | building ever larger data center, | 建造更大的数据中心, |
| 515 | putting them in space, wherever you're gonna do. | 把他们放在太空,无论你打算做什么。 |
| 516 | And the more money you put in and the more data you have | 你投入的钱越多 数据就越多 |
| 517 | and the more computer power you have, | 你拥有的电脑功率越大 |
| 518 | the better it's going to be. | 越好,它会是。 |
| 519 | That's not obvious to me that that will continue | 这对我来说并不明显 那会继续下去 |
| 520 | up that exponential curve. | 在指数曲线上。 |
| 521 | And that's why I'm hesitant to say in our lifetime. | 这就是为什么我不愿说 在我们的一生。 |
| 522 | It may take a number of lifetimes | 可能要花很多时间 |
| 523 | to develop the kind of artificial intelligence necessary | 发展必要的人工智能 |
| 524 | to advance the kinds of scientific problems | 推动科学问题的类型 |
| 525 | that you're talking about. | 你说的是。 |
| 526 | But look, I'd be thrilled if it's our lifetime. | 但是,如果这是我们的一生,我会很高兴。 |
| 527 | I'd be thrilled if I'm wrong | 如果我错了我会很兴奋 |
| 528 | and these systems are up to the task. | 并且这些系统可以胜任任务。 |
| 529 | One of the terms that has emerged | 出现的术语之一 |
| 530 | in the world of AI recently | 最近在大赦国际世界 |
| 531 | is this term recursive self-improvement. | 是这个术语的递归自我改进。 |
| 532 | Recursive self-improvement is the concept | 递归自我改进是概念 |
| 533 | where an AI becomes intelligent enough | 在人工智能变得足够聪明的地方 |
| 534 | to write its own software, design its own hardware | 编写自己的软件,设计自己的硬件 |
| 535 | or train its own successes without human intervention. | 或者在没有人类干预的情况下训练自己的成功。 |
| 536 | And once this loop begins, | 一旦这个循环开始, |
| 537 | the upgraded AI uses its superior intelligence | 升级的AI使用其优越的智能 |
| 538 | to build an even smarter version of itself, | 建立一个更聪明的版本本身, |
| 539 | which then builds an even smarter version and so on | 然后建立更聪明的版本等等 |
| 540 | because computer systems operate in seconds | 因为计算机系统在数秒内运行 |
| 541 | rather than human evolutionary timescales. | 而不是人类进化的时间尺度。 |
| 542 | This feedback loop could trigger an exponential quote, | 这个反馈循环可以触发指数引号, |
| 543 | intelligence explosion, | 情报爆炸, |
| 544 | rapidly taking AI from human level capability | 从人的能力中迅速吸收AI |
| 545 | to super intelligence within days or hours. | 数日或数小时之内到达超级情报部门 |
| 546 | 和大AI领袖, 达里奥在Anthropic | |
| 547 | has recently published an article warning | 最近发表了一篇文章警告 |
| 548 | that we're edging closer to that. | 我们越来越接近了 |
| 549 | Sam Altman has said the same. | 萨姆·阿尔特曼也这么说 |
| 550 | Dennis has said the same. | 丹尼斯也是这么说的 |
| 551 | Elon has talked about this as well recently. | 伊隆最近也谈过了 |
| 552 | And their timelines for this explosion in intelligence | 以及他们这次情报爆炸的时间表 |
| 553 | because of the AIs being able to train themselves | 因为人工智能能够训练自己 |
| 554 | ranges from two years to five years, | 两年至五年不等, |
| 555 | placing them between 2026 and 2029. | 放在2026年到2029年之间 |
| 556 | And Dario who's the CEO of the biggest model | 和达里奥谁是首席执行官 最大的模型 |
| 557 | 叫做Anthropic Claude说人工智能系统 | |
| 558 | outperforming most humans across all human tasks, | 在所有人类任务中表现优于大多数人类 |
| 559 | including software engineering | 包括软件工程 |
| 560 | could arrive within two to three years. | 可以在2到3年内抵达。 |
| 561 | And Anthropic has been warning | 安斯罗皮克一直警告 |
| 562 | that full recursive self-improvement | 完全递归自我改进 |
| 563 | could arrive by 2027 to 2028. | 可以在2027年到2028年到达 |
| 564 | Dennis at Google is citing 2029 | 谷歌的丹尼斯引述了2029年 |
| 565 | as a real possibility and Sam Altman says this decade. | 萨姆·阿尔特曼说这十年是真正的可能性 |
| 566 | I mean, Brian Johnson tweeted yesterday, | 布莱恩・约翰逊昨天发了推特 |
| 567 | {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}快一点 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}就像你活到500岁 | |
| 568 | because you may. | 因为你可以。 |
| 569 | Because you may. | 因为你可以。 |
| 570 | Look, I'm all for the possibility | 你看,我所有的可能性 |
| 571 | that these systems will take off in a way | 这些系统会以某种方式起飞 |
| 572 | that hopefully we are hopefully working in a way | 希望我们以某种方式工作 |
| 573 | that allows the kinds of future | 让未来成为现实 |
| 574 | that you're envisioning that we are here. | 你在想象我们在这里 |
| 575 | Would it be a good thing? | 会是好事吗? |
| 576 | Well, it would be seductive. | 嗯,这将是诱人的。 |
| 577 | I mean, if someone was to present you | 我是说,如果有人介绍你 |
| 578 | with the opportunity to live to 500 years, | 有机会活到500岁 |
| 579 | I think many people would opt in for that. | 我认为很多人会选择这样做。 |
| 580 | It's very hard to say, 100 years is enough. | 很难说 100年就够了 |
| 581 | And I just, there are people who do that, | 我只是,有人这样做, |
| 582 | who will look at the world and say, it's enough, I'm done. | 谁会看着世界说,够了,我受够了。 |
| 583 | But back to the prognostications | 但回到预后 |
| 584 | that are being made. | 正在制作中。 |
| 585 | Look, it's absolutely the case | 你看,这是绝对的 |
| 586 | that the AIs will self-improve | AI将自我改进 |
| 587 | through the very process that got us here. | 整个过程让我们来到这里。 |
| 588 | But on a time scale that's tiny compared | 但时间尺度比较小 |
| 589 | to the time scale that got us here. | 到时间尺度 我们在这里。 |
| 590 | I'm skeptical that by 2029, this will really be the case. | 我怀疑到2029年,情况确实如此. |
| 591 | Let's see, right? | 让我们看看,对不对? |
| 592 | I mean, this is a very short term, right? | 我的意思是,这是一个非常短的时间,对不对? |
| 593 | So we will know in a few years whether this is the case. | 因此,我们将知道,几年后是否就是这种情况。 |
| 594 | How many years has it taken living organisms | 它花了多少年的活生物体 |
| 595 | to get from a single cell microbe or whatever | 从单细胞微生物或任何东西得到 |
| 596 | to understanding string theory? | 理解弦理论? |
| 597 | Yeah, so the first life on our planet formed | 是啊,所以我们星球上的第一个生命形成 |
| 598 | roughly within the first billion years. | 大约在最初的十亿年内。 |
| 599 | People debate exactly where that is. | 人们辩论的正是那里。 |
| 600 | And we're now roughly, call it five billion years. | 我们现在大概是50亿年了。 |
| 601 | And so call it roughly four billion years. | 大约40亿年。 |
| 602 | And a computer going from zero | 电脑从零开始 |
| 603 | to being smarter than every human on earth has taken. | 变得比地球上每一个人都聪明 |
| 604 | Yeah, well, it depends where you start the gun, right? | 是啊,这取决于你在哪里开始枪,对不对? |
| 605 | Because again, if you think about these systems as we, | 再说一遍 如果你像我们一样考虑这些系统 |
| 606 | they needed us. | 他们需要我们 |
| 607 | Without the internet and all the data, | 没有互联网和所有的数据 |
| 608 | what would they have trained on? | 他们会接受什么训练? |
| 609 | At least this version of artificial intelligence. | 至少这个版本的人工智能. |
| 610 | If it's the computer, the artificial system | 如果是电脑,是人工系统 |
| 611 | that's self tinkering, then yeah, there's this feedback | 这是自我修补, 然后是的,有反馈 |
| 612 | that will yield an exponential growth. | 这将产生指数增长。 |
| 613 | And if there's no barrier, and there may be, right? | 如果没有障碍,也许有,对不对? |
| 614 | There may be a barrier to the kind | 可能会有障碍 |
| 615 | of artificial intelligence systems that we have. | 我们拥有的人工智能系统 |
| 616 | We may allow it to iterate and it iterates. | 我们也许可以让它延展,延展。 |
| 617 | And it sure, it improves, but doesn't improve like this. | 当然,它会改善,但不会像这样改善。 |
| 618 | It improves like this. | 它是这样改进的。 |
| 619 | It could asymptote. | 它可能同化。 |
| 620 | It could approach a maximal intelligence compatible | 它可以接近一个最大的智能兼容性 |
| 621 | with this version of the artificial system. | 与这个版本的人工系统. |
| 622 | And so it won't skyrocket. | 所以它不会飞升。 |
| 623 | It could do this. | 它可以做到这一点。 |
| 624 | And we don't know the answer. | 我们不知道答案 |
| 625 | Which curve is the right one? | 哪条曲线是正确的? |
| 626 | Give me a rebuttal to that. | 给我一个反驳。 |
| 627 | A rebuttal to it being the exponential curve? | 一个反驳它是指数曲线? |
| 628 | Give me a rebuttal. | 给我一个反驳。 |
| 629 | Oh, you're asking the system. | 哦,你问系统。 |
| 630 | That was Brian saying one of that. | 那是布莱恩说的其中之一。 |
| 631 | Give me a rebuttal to that. | 给我一个反驳。 |
| 632 | The rebuttal to the idea of an asymptote | 对不对称思想的反驳 |
| 633 | is that AI isn't just improving one thing. | 是AI不只是改进一件事。 |
| 634 | It's exploring an astronomically vast solution space | 它正在探索一个天文浩瀚的解决方案空间 |
| 635 | of algorithms, data, and hardware configurations | 算法、数据和硬件配置 |
| 636 | that humans can't even conceive of. | 人类甚至无法想象 |
| 637 | Furthermore, each marginal gain in intelligence | 此外,智力的每个边际收益 |
| 638 | could instantly be reinvested into solving | 可以立即重新投资解决 |
| 639 | the very bottlenecks that might cause a slowdown, | 有可能造成减缓的瓶颈, |
| 640 | effectively breaking through the wall rather than hitting it. | 有效突破墙壁 而不是击中它。 |
| 641 | Maybe, but if all of these incremental improvements | 也许,但如果所有这些渐进改进 |
| 642 | ultimately are limited by the kind of artificial intelligence | 最终受到人工智能的限制 |
| 643 | that we are working within, | 我們在裡面工作, |
| 644 | then none of that will necessarily be able to break through. | 那么这些都不可能突破 |
| 645 | And I think this is something | 我觉得这是个东西 |
| 646 | that we're just gonna have to see over time. | 我们只是需要看到一段时间。 |
| 647 | Fight back. | 反击 |
| 648 | That points to a crucial distinction | 这说明一个关键的区别 |
| 649 | about whether the current paradigm has a hard limit. | 关于当前范式是否有硬性限制。 |
| 650 | While it's possible there's an invisible ceiling, | 虽然有可能有一个隐形天花板, |
| 651 | it's also true that we haven't yet mapped out | 这也是事实,我们还没有规划出来 |
| 652 | where that boundary lies, | 在那座乐园里, |
| 653 | meaning any predictions about a plateau | 指任何对高原的预测 |
| 654 | remain speculative for now. | 目前仍是投机性的。 |
| 655 | Yes, and all I'm saying is there is a possible | 是的,我要说的是,有可能 |
| 656 | limiting ceiling exactly as you just admitted. | 就像你刚才承认的那样限制上限 |
| 657 | Rebuttal that as well. | 反驳这一点。 |
| 658 | The counter to that is the idea that an intelligent system | 与此相反的是 智能系统的想法 |
| 659 | could innovate beyond the current framework | 超越现有框架的创新 |
| 660 | by recursively redesigning its own architecture. | 不断重新设计自己的架构。 |
| 661 | By altering its fundamental rules, | 通过改变它的基本规则, |
| 662 | it might not just reach the ceiling, | 它可能不只是达到上限, |
| 663 | but raise it altogether or bypass it | 你应当把它全部提起来,或绕过它, |
| 664 | into an entirely new domain of capability. | 进入全新的能力领域。 |
| 665 | But you do agree that the system that we're starting with | 但你确实同意 我们开始的系统 |
| 666 | may be self-limiting. | 可能是自我限制。 |
| 667 | I'm simply positing that as a logical possibility | 我只是假设这符合逻辑 |
| 668 | and therefore we'll have that natural inbuilt ceiling. | 因此我们会有天然的天花板。 |
| 669 | Yeah, absolutely. | 当然 |
| 670 | Okay, stop, I'm done. | 好了,停下来,我结束了。 |
| 671 | Isn't that crazy? | 是不是疯了? |
| 672 | Yeah, it's totally insane. | 是啊,这是完全疯狂的。 |
| 673 | Because even five years ago, | 因为五年前 |
| 674 | we never would have thought that was possible. | 我们绝对不会想到那是不可能的。 |
| 675 | Would have been this, I doubt it. | 本来是这样的,我怀疑 |
| 676 | Yeah, yeah, yeah, totally crazy. | 是啊,是啊,是啊,完全疯了。 |
| 677 | And again, just the flip side, | 再说一遍,只有另一边 |
| 678 | even though I'm saying that there may be a ceiling, | 即使我说可能有一个天花板, |
| 679 | I also would say there may not be a ceiling. | 我还要说,可能没有上限。 |
| 680 | And again, it's both exciting and frightening | 再说一遍,这既令人兴奋又可怕 |
| 681 | at the same time, | 同时, |
| 682 | because it's not obvious that we would be prepared | 因为我们不明显会准备好 |
| 683 | for that. | 对于这个。 |
| 684 | Why frightening? | 为什么害怕? |
| 685 | What would that mean? | 这是什么意思? |
| 686 | Well, they're the usual doomsday scenarios | 嗯,这是通常的末日情景 |
| 687 | that many people have articulated. | 很多人都说过 |
| 688 | From these systems just having a single-minded focus | 从这些系统来看, 只有一个重点 |
| 689 | on some particular outcome | 某些特定结果 |
| 690 | that may not ultimately involve us, | 可能不会最终涉及我们, |
| 691 | or that these systems may have a self-preservation instinct | 或者这些系统可能具有自我保护的本能 |
| 692 | that prevents us from stopping them | 阻止我们阻止他们 |
| 693 | if they head in a direction that we're not happy with. | 如果他们朝我们不满意的方向走 |
| 694 | 我的意思是,Yann LeCun,谁是... | |
| 695 | He's one of the godfathers of AI. | 他是AI的教父之一. |
| 696 | Yeah, and his view is much more of the sort, | 是的,他的观点更像是那种, |
| 697 | just pull the plug. | 只要拉开插头。 |
| 698 | If something's going in the wrong direction, | 如果有什么不对劲 |
| 699 | just pull the plug. | 只要拉开插头。 |
| 700 | I mean, just stop the AI system. | 我的意思是,只是停止AI系统。 |
| 701 | And it's not obvious to me, | 这对我来说并不明显, |
| 702 | and I guess to many of the other leaders, | 我想其他许多领导人, |
| 703 | that if these systems advance sufficiently far, | 如果这些系统进展足够远, |
| 704 | that they won't be able to stop you from pulling the plug. | 他们无法阻止你拔掉插头 |
| 705 | The other thing I would say, | 我还想说 |
| 706 | and again, this is not original, | 再说一遍,这不是原创的, |
| 707 | many people have worried about this, | 很多人担心这个 |
| 708 | you rattled off the names of the leaders | 你摇动了领导人的名字, |
| 709 | of the current companies that are leading the charge in AI. | 由AI公司负责。 |
| 710 | There only are a handful of companies | 这里只有几家公司 |
| 711 | and a handful of people. | 还有几个人 |
| 712 | Putting that kind of power in such a small number of hands | 把这种力量 放在这么少的手中 |
| 713 | has historically, not with AI, | 历史上,没有AI, |
| 714 | but with other power structures, | 但以其他权力结构, |
| 715 | not always turned out well. | 情况并非总是很好。 |
| 716 | And so, yes, I think there is a chance | 所以,是的,我觉得有机会 |
| 717 | that there's an instability | 有不稳定 |
| 718 | that the power of these kinds of artificial systems | 这些人工系统的力量 |
| 719 | may generate. | 可能生成。 |
| 720 | So Demis, and I use Demis | 所以,戴米斯,我用戴米斯 |
| 721 | because Demis is running the biggest AI company, | 因为Demis经营着最大的AI公司 |
| 722 | said that since the design of machines | 说因为机器的设计 |
| 723 | is one of these intellectual activities, | 是这些知识活动之一, |
| 724 | an ultra-intelligent machine | 一台超智能机器 |
| 725 | could design even better machines. | 可以设计更好的机器。 |
| 726 | If the exponential continues, which is not certain, | 如果指数持续, 这不确定, |
| 727 | but now has a decade-long track record supporting it, | 但现在有十年之久的成绩 支持它, |
| 728 | then it cannot possibly be more than a few years | 那不可能超过几年 |
| 729 | before AI is better than humans at essentially everything. | 在AI比人类在本质上什么都好之前 |
| 730 | The combination of intelligence, agency, | 情报,机构, |
| 731 | and unpredictability is a recipe for existential danger. | 和不可预测性是存在危险的秘诀。 |
| 732 | Not because AI is evil, | 不是因为AI是邪恶的, |
| 733 | but because it's complex in ways | 但因为它很复杂的方式 |
| 734 | we don't fully understand yet. | 我们还没完全理解 |
| 735 | If a system can improve faster | 如果一个系统能更快改进 |
| 736 | than humans can evaluate those improvements, | 比人类能够评估这些改进, |
| 737 | the normal safety feedback loop breaks down. | 普通安全反馈循环崩溃。 |
| 738 | You cannot catch problems before they compound. | 在问题出现之前,你不能抓住问题 |
| 739 | He's absolutely right. | 他说得对 |
| 740 | You know, the problem with exponentials | 你知道,指数的问题 |
| 741 | is that they grow so quickly | 他们长得这么快 |
| 742 | that by the time you see them, | 当你看到他们的时候, |
| 743 | it's too late to do anything about it. | 为时已晚,不能做任何事情。 |
| 744 | I mean, what happens with the pandemic? | 我是说,大流行会怎样? |
| 745 | With a pandemic, you know, it starts off slow, | 随着大流行,你知道, 它开始缓慢, |
| 746 | nobody cares, nobody's paying attention. | 没人在意 没人在意 |
| 747 | It's a story in the news, a story in the news. | 新闻新闻 新闻新闻. |
| 748 | By the time it becomes a real story, | 当它成为一个真实的故事, |
| 749 | the pandemic is at the part of the exponential curve | 该流行病处于指数曲线的一部份 |
| 750 | that makes it very difficult to address the problem itself. | 这使得这个问题本身很难得到解决。 |
| 751 | And the same thing could easily happen here, | 同样的事情 很容易发生在这里, |
| 752 | that the increase in intelligence, | 情报的增加, |
| 753 | and I'm glad Demis phrased that way, | 我很高兴戴米斯这么说 |
| 754 | it may not be that it's intrinsically evil | 也许不是内在的邪恶 |
| 755 | to have this kind of powerful intelligence. | 拥有这种强大的智能。 |
| 756 | It just may act in ways that are so alien to us, | 它可能以对我们如此陌生的方式行事 |
| 757 | so unexpected to us, | 如此出乎我们的意料 |
| 758 | that we don't know how to deal with it. | 我们不知道如何处理它。 |
| 759 | And moreover, it may not necessarily | 而且,它并不一定 |
| 760 | be beneficial to our existence. | 有利于我们的生存 |
| 761 | Now, as I said before, I'm perhaps a minority | 现在,正如我之前说过的,我也许是少数 |
| 762 | when I say I can imagine that we work with the AI | 当我说,我可以想象 我们的工作与AI |
| 763 | and co-develop into something | 和共同开发的东西 |
| 764 | that we can't even predict today. | 我们今天甚至无法预测 |
| 765 | That seems to me a real possibility. | 这对我来说似乎是一个真正的可能。 |
| 766 | And that's also the temptation. | 这也是诱惑 |
| 767 | Yeah, you know, I have a friend, Michael Douglas, | 是的,你知道,我有一个朋友,迈克尔道格拉斯, |
| 768 | who's a brilliant physicist. | 他是一个杰出的物理学家。 |
| 769 | And he said to me, we physicists, | 他对我说 我们物理学家 |
| 770 | we should choose the final problems that we work on | 我们应该选择最后的问题 我们的工作 |
| 771 | because within a few years, we'll be out of business | 因为几年后,我们就会破产 |
| 772 | because the AI systems will just be doing it all. | 因为人工智能系统只是做这一切。 |
| 773 | And that's both exciting and terrifying | 这既令人兴奋又可怕 |
| 774 | because as a physicist, your lifeblood | 因为作为一个物理学家 你的命脉 |
| 775 | is looking out at the world and finding puzzles | 寻找谜题 |
| 776 | and trying to find the explanations for them. | 并试图找到他们的解释。 |
| 777 | And if you can just put it into an AI system | 如果你能把它放进人工智能系统 |
| 778 | and it generates the answer, | 它能产生答案, |
| 779 | yeah, there can be a certain existential angst | 是的,可以有一个存在性的愤怒 |
| 780 | about what your role is at that point. | 说说你的角色是什么 |
| 781 | But that's also exciting | 但这也是令人兴奋的 |
| 782 | because maybe we will get answers to questions | 因为也许我们会找到答案 |
| 783 | that we thought we would never get in our lifetime. | 我们以为一辈子都得不到 |
| 784 | Did you say your friends with Yan look cute? | 你说你和小燕的朋友很可爱吗? |
| 785 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 786 | And did you say he thinks we should just pull the plug? | 你说他觉得我们应该拔掉插头? |
| 787 | When you confront Yan and say, | 当你面对阿燕说 |
| 788 | dude, aren't you worried about what's gonna happen with this? | 伙计,你不担心这是怎么回事吗? |
| 789 | He's like, ah, don't worry, just pull the plug | 他就像,啊,不用担心,只是拉插头 |
| 790 | if there's a problem. | 如果有什么问题。 |
| 791 | Oh, oh. | 瓳 瓳 |
| 792 | Yeah, his view is the difference | 是啊,他的看法是不同的 |
| 793 | between the AI systems that we have today | 今天的人工智能系统之间 |
| 794 | and the AI systems that we need for tomorrow, | 我们明天需要的人工智能系统 |
| 795 | if you really want this to continue is | 如果你真的想继续,那就是 |
| 796 | they can't just be probabilities | 他们不能只是概率 |
| 797 | and statistics based on words. | 和基于文字的统计。 |
| 798 | The AI systems need to have some inner model of the world | 人工智能系统需要 一些世界的内部模型 |
| 799 | as we do, right? | 就像我们一样,对不对? |
| 800 | I mean, if I take this cup here and I push it, | 我的意思是,如果我拿着这个杯子,我推它, |
| 801 | I have an inner model of what it would take | 我有一个内在的模型 需要什么 |
| 802 | to move it without spilling. | 移动它而不溢出。 |
| 803 | And I have an inner model of what it would take to spill it. | 我有一个内在的模型 要怎样才能把它洒出来。 |
| 804 | I wanna actually do it because it would make a mess. | 我想真正做到这一点,因为它会弄得一团糟。 |
| 805 | That's not just statistics and probabilities of words. | 这不仅仅是统计和文字的概率. |
| 806 | That's a model of how reality functions. | 这是现实功能的模型。 |
| 807 | And that's what he and many others have been developing. | 而这正是他和其他许多人一直在发展的东西。 |
| 808 | A world model together with the probabilities | 世界模式与概率 |
| 809 | of large language model or some weird hybrid | 大型语言模型或某种奇怪的混合体 |
| 810 | or something else we haven't thought of, | 或者我们没想过什么 |
| 811 | that may be the next phase of artificial intelligence. | 这也许是人工智能的下一阶段。 |
| 812 | But of course, Demis and others might say the LLMs | 当然,Demis和其他人可能会说LLMS |
| 813 | through self-improvement, | 通过自我改善, |
| 814 | maybe they would develop that world. | 也许他们会发展这个世界 |
| 815 | Maybe they would on their own get to the place | 也许他们会自己去 |
| 816 | that you would think that we humans would need | 你会认为我们人类需要 |
| 817 | to inject something extra, who knows? | 谁知道呢? |
| 818 | Because if I get this glass here, I say to the AI, | 因为如果我得到这个玻璃 在这里,我说AI, |
| 819 | what happens to this if I push it in that direction? | 如果我把它推向那个方向会怎么样? |
| 820 | If you push that mug, it'll slide across the table | 如果你推那个杯子,它会滑过桌子 |
| 821 | and depending on how hard you push, | 取决于你有多努力 |
| 822 | it could knock into the plate or slide right off the edge. | 它可以敲进盘子 或者从边缘滑下来 |
| 823 | Now, again, it simply is relying upon the fact | 现在,再次,它只是依赖于事实 |
| 824 | that it's read everything on the internet | 网络上的一切 |
| 825 | and there are physics textbooks, | 还有物理教科书, |
| 826 | there are conversations about things falling | 有谈话说事情会下降 |
| 827 | and it bases its response by drawing | 并且它通过绘制 |
| 828 | on those collections of words. | 这些词集。 |
| 829 | Isn't that what I'm doing as well? | 我不是也这么做的吗? |
| 830 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 831 | How does human intelligence work? | 人类的智力如何运作? |
| 832 | Certainly, evolutionary psychologists | 当然,进化心理学家 |
| 833 | have asked the following question, | 已提出下列问题: |
| 834 | are we like a blank slate? | 我们像一个空白板? |
| 835 | And we simply learn about the world, | 我们只是了解世界 |
| 836 | people tell us, we experience and so forth, | 人们告诉我们,我们的经验等等, |
| 837 | or is there something more innate? | 或者还有更内在的东西吗? |
| 838 | And I think there is strong evidence | 我认为有确凿的证据 |
| 839 | that we have a kind of innate physical intuition | 我们有一种固有的物理直觉 |
| 840 | about the world that's really been passed down | 关于世界 真正被流传下来 |
| 841 | through the generations. | 历经数代 |
| 842 | Not that you can pass down F equals MA or Newton's laws | 不是说您可以通过F 等于MA或牛顿的定律 |
| 843 | to your children because you learned, | 对你的孩子 因为你学会了, |
| 844 | of course, that's silly, | 当然,这是愚蠢的, |
| 845 | but there is an evolutionary advantage | 但有一个进化优势 |
| 846 | to being able to quickly assess the world | 能够迅速评估世界 |
| 847 | and figure out how to act, right? | 想想怎么做,对不对? |
| 848 | Those of our forebears who could not throw the rock | 那些不能扔石头的前辈 |
| 849 | or the spear, they're the ones who didn't get the next meal. | 或长矛, 他们谁没有得到下顿饭。 |
| 850 | Those of our forebears that had a slightly better | 我们的先辈们有一点好 |
| 851 | predilection for ingesting experience and codifying it | 吞食和编纂经验的倾向 |
| 852 | in some understanding of how the world actually works, | 在某种程度上理解世界是如何运作的, |
| 853 | they're the ones that survived. | 是他们活下来的 |
| 854 | And so they can pass down that predilection. | 这样他们就可以通过 之前的偏执。 |
| 855 | And I do think that that's part of how we assess the world. | 我认为这是我们评估世界的一部分。 |
| 856 | I don't think we're complete blank slates in that sense. | 我觉得我们不是完全空洞的 |
| 857 | It would make sense. | 这很合理 |
| 858 | Babies are born with some kind of intelligence, | 婴儿出生有某种智力 |
| 859 | they grip fingers, but that is in part | 他们握住手指,但这部分 |
| 860 | because the parent has passed that on. | 因为父母已经传承了 |
| 861 | And so an AI could pass. | 这样人工智能就能通过 |
| 862 | Yes, that's right. | 没错 |
| 863 | When you talk about the AI systems themselves | 当你谈论人工智能系统的时候 |
| 864 | being evolutionary, yeah, they certainly do pass down | 进化,是的,他们当然会通过 |
| 865 | the achievements of generation N to generation N plus one. | N代到N代的成绩 |
| 866 | That is certainly part of this iterative process | 这无疑是这一迭代进程的一部分 |
| 867 | without a doubt. | 毫无疑问。 |
| 868 | What a weird world we're living in. | 我们生活的世界真奇怪 |
| 869 | It's so crazy. | 太疯狂了 |
| 870 | Sometimes I think, but I imagine through history, | 有时候我想, 但我想象通过历史, |
| 871 | everyone's thought like, God, what a time to be alive. | 每个人都在想 上帝 活着的时光 |
| 872 | We are living through a rapid change | 我们生活在一个快速的变化中 |
| 873 | that is a little unprecedented. | 这是有点前所未有的。 |
| 874 | How do you think one should contend with all of this? | 你觉得应该怎么对付这一切? |
| 875 | Cause people are concerned. | 因为人们都很担心 |
| 876 | Change is not something that we love at this rate. | 变化不是我们这么喜欢的 |
| 877 | Again, I think people will cope in many different ways. | 再说一遍,我认为人们会以多种不同的方式应对. |
| 878 | If you can stay open and excited to the possibilities | 如果你能敞开心扉 对各种可能性感到兴奋 |
| 879 | and have the flexibility of change. | 并具有变革的灵活性。 |
| 880 | Oh, one of the things I've been thinking a lot about lately | 哦,最近我一直在想的一件事 |
| 881 | is Elon's out there saying that we're heading | 伊隆在外面说我们要出发了 |
| 882 | to an age of abundance. | 到富足的时代。 |
| 883 | He's kind of shifted his perspective from this doomerism | 他从这个道默主义的角度出发了 |
| 884 | to age of abundance. | 至富足的时代。 |
| 885 | And then part of his narrative there is we won't need money | 然后他的一段叙述就是 我们不需要钱 |
| 886 | because when you've got robots and AI and more energy, | 因为当你有机器人和AI 和更多的能量, |
| 887 | then we're not gonna have to worry about food | 那我们就不用担心食物了 |
| 888 | and these kinds of things or bills, whatever. | 还有这些东西或账单,什么的。 |
| 889 | But still humans pursue scarcity. | 但人类仍然在追求稀缺 |
| 890 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 891 | We pursue status. | 我们追求地位。 |
| 892 | Humans want the home on the end of Miami beach | 人类想要迈阿密海滩尽头的家园 |
| 893 | with the best plot. | 与最好的情节。 |
| 894 | And there's finite numbers of these things | 这些东西数量有限 |
| 895 | that a lot of humans pursue, | 许多人追随, |
| 896 | even like academic discovery, Nobel prizes. | 甚至像学术发现,诺贝尔奖。 |
| 897 | There's a finite number of them and we pursue them. | 数量有限,我们追踪他们 |
| 898 | So one would argue that there's still gonna be | 因此,人们会争论说,还有 |
| 899 | a competition, humans are still gonna strive for things. | 一场比赛,人类仍会为事物而奋斗 |
| 900 | Why do we do that? | 为什么? |
| 901 | And part of the reason is if you know | 原因之一是你知道 |
| 902 | that you're gonna die, | 你会死, |
| 903 | if you know that your life is finite, | 如果你知道你的生命是有限的, |
| 904 | there can be an urge to make your mark, | 可能会有冲动 做你的标记, |
| 905 | to do something special, to be out of the ordinary | 做一些特殊的事, 变得不寻常 |
| 906 | so that in some symbolic way, you continue to exist | 这样,以某种象征性的方式,你继续存在 |
| 907 | even after you are gone. | 甚至在你离开之后 |
| 908 | I mean, Elon Musk, yeah, after he's gone, | 我的意思是,伊隆・穆斯克,是的,在他走了之后, |
| 909 | people are gonna talk about him for a long, long time | 人们会谈论他很久很久 |
| 910 | because he had a radical impact | 因为他有 激进的影响 |
| 911 | and who knows where it will go. | 谁知道它会去哪里 |
| 912 | He's got many productive years still left. | 他还有许多有成果的岁月 |
| 913 | And so, yes, there is this natural tendency | 所以,是的,有一个自然的趋势 |
| 914 | to seek something that will allow you | 来寻找能让你 |
| 915 | to symbolically persist after you are gone. | 在你离开后象征性地坚持下去。 |
| 916 | Now, if we all realize that that is part of human motivation, | 现在,如果我们都意识到 这是人类动机的一部分, |
| 917 | maybe as a species, we could begin to shift, right? | 也许作为一个物种, 我们可以开始转变,对不对? |
| 918 | It isn't the case that we have to always be | 我们不应该总是这样 |
| 919 | the way we have been. | 就像我们以前一样 |
| 920 | Historically, that's the way we have been. | 历史上,我们就是这样的 |
| 921 | Kings wanna be kings in part because they have the power. | 国王想要成为国王 部分原因是他们有权力 |
| 922 | If they have the power, they have the hegemony. | 如果他们有权力,他们就有霸权. |
| 923 | They in a sense exist even when they are gone. | 从某种意义上讲,即使它们已经消失,它们仍然存在。 |
| 924 | They're progeny. | 其为子孙. |
| 925 | Why do we have descent of monarchies? | 为什么我们有君主的血统? |
| 926 | Because the king continues to exist | 因为国王继续存在 |
| 927 | through the king's progeny. | 过王子孙. |
| 928 | And so, yeah, could we perhaps get to a place | 所以,是的,我们也许可以到一个地方 |
| 929 | where we shed that way of being | 在那里,我们放弃了那种方式 |
| 930 | because we're in a world of abundance, | 因为我们的世界是丰满的, |
| 931 | where the whole notion of scarcity is artificial | 整个稀缺的概念是人为的 |
| 932 | and we're only inventing it, we realize, | 我们只是发明它,我们意识到, |
| 933 | in order that we can feel good and special | 为了让我们能感觉好和特别 |
| 934 | and maybe we can find other ways to feel good and special? | 也许我们可以找到其他方式 感觉好和特殊? |
| 935 | I allow for that possibility. | 我允许这种可能性。 |
| 936 | I'm not particularly optimistic | 我不太乐观 |
| 937 | that that's what will happen. | 这就是会发生的事。 |
| 938 | The flip side would say it's easy to say | 反面会说很容易说 |
| 939 | that money won't matter when you have a trillion dollars. | 那笔钱不关你的事 当你有一万亿美元。 |
| 940 | I mean, you just have to sort of see this stuff in context. | 我的意思是,你只需要看看这些东西的背景。 |
| 941 | But yeah. | 不过是的 |
| 942 | We have one more little souvenir thing there. | 还有一件小纪念品 |
| 943 | And this is kind of what we're talking about, | 而这就是我们所说的, |
| 944 | which is robots. | 这是机器人。 |
| 945 | Do you think AI can become conscious, is the question? | 你觉得AI能意识到吗? |
| 946 | Yeah. | 对 |
| 947 | High confidence or low confidence? | 高信心还是低信心? |
| 948 | Yeah, I'm pretty high confident on that. | 是的,我很有信心这一点。 |
| 949 | Again, as I'm saying before, | 再说一遍,我以前说过 |
| 950 | I just see consciousness as a physical process | 我只是将意识视为一种物理过程 |
| 951 | and it's a matter of, in one way or another, | 事情是这样的 |
| 952 | achieving that physical process in an artificial system. | 在人工系统中实现物理过程。 |
| 953 | And I don't see a fundamental barrier to doing that. | 我没有看到一个根本的障碍 做到这一点。 |
| 954 | I was thinking about how laws | 我在想法律是怎样的 |
| 955 | would have to potentially change | 可能会改变 |
| 956 | if we considered robots to be conscious | 如果我们认为机器人是有意识的 |
| 957 | and they lived in our homes, would they then get rights? | 他们住在我们的家中,然后他们获得权利吗? |
| 958 | I think that's something we should think about now, | 我想我们现在应该想想 |
| 959 | actually. | 事实上 |
| 960 | Really? | 真的吗? |
| 961 | Yeah, it's a very tricky idea. | 是啊,这是一个非常棘手的主意。 |
| 962 | I mean, it's one thing to pull the plug on a light bulb. | 我的意思是,这是一件事 拔插头在灯泡上。 |
| 963 | It's another thing to pull the plug on a sentient system. | 另一件事是把插头拉到一个哨兵系统上. |
| 964 | And we may well find ourselves in that situation. | 我们很可能处于这种境地。 |
| 965 | The challenge is it's virtually impossible | 挑战在于这几乎是不可能的 |
| 966 | to ever prove sentience, right? | 证明自己是神灵 对吧? |
| 967 | I mean, as we look at each other, | 我的意思是,当我们看着对方, |
| 968 | we each afford the other consciousness. | 我们每个人都有意识 |
| 969 | I believe that you are conscious. | 我相信你有意识 |
| 970 | You believe that I am as well. | 你也认为我也是 |
| 971 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 972 | You were more or less physically constructed | 你或多或少是身体构造的 |
| 973 | more or less the same way. | 差不多都一样 |
| 974 | We're part of the same species. | 我们是同一个物种的一部分。 |
| 975 | Our body language, our speech is so similar | 我们的身体语言,我们的演讲是如此相似 |
| 976 | in the grand scheme of things | 在大计划的事情 |
| 977 | that we afford the other what we internally experience. | 我们为别人提供了我们内部的经验。 |
| 978 | But we don't know it, right? | 但我们不知道,对不对? |
| 979 | You don't know that I'm conscious. | 你不知道我有意识。 |
| 980 | I could be faking it. | 我可能是在装 |
| 981 | I could be a really good artificial zombie | 我可能是一个非常好的人造僵尸 |
| 982 | that speaks and talks, but there's nothing going on inside. | 说话和说话, 但里面什么都没有发生。 |
| 983 | And the same could be true for you. | 你也一样 |
| 984 | And what that means is when we are | 那意味着当我们是 |
| 985 | with these artificial systems that don't have our lineage, | 与这些人工系统 没有我们的血统, |
| 986 | they're not part of the same species. | 它们不是同一个物种的一部分。 |
| 987 | They don't necessarily look like us. | 他们不一定像我们 |
| 988 | They don't have the upbringing that we had | 他们没有我们的教养 |
| 989 | and so on and so forth. | 诸如来等. |
| 990 | Will we be willing to agree that they're conscious | 我们是否愿意同意他们有意识 |
| 991 | if they tell us that they are? | 如果他们告诉我们他们是? |
| 992 | I mean, if the artificial system says, I really am, | 我的意思是,如果人造系统说, 我真的是, |
| 993 | I'm feeling exactly the thing | 我完全感觉到了 |
| 994 | that I read about in your internet. | 我在你的网上读到的 |
| 995 | I'm feeling love or I'm feeling depressed. | 我感到爱或沮丧。 |
| 996 | If they say that to us, we'll say, no, no, no. | 如果他们这么说,我们就会说,不,不,不。 |
| 997 | You're just mimicking, you're miming | 你只是在模仿,你在模仿 |
| 998 | the kinds of things that human beings have said. | 人类所说的话 |
| 999 | There's nothing going on inside. | 内无所动. |
| 1000 | There's nothing, there's no world inside there. | 空无一物,内无世界. |
| 1001 | How do we ever get beyond that? | 我们怎样才能超越这个范围? |
| 1002 | And I don't know the answer to that question, | 我不知道这个问题的答案 |
| 1003 | even though I strongly believe | 虽然我坚信 |
| 1004 | that there's no logical fundamental barrier | 没有逻辑上的基本障碍 |
| 1005 | that prevents the system from saying that | 防止系统说 |
| 1006 | and from telling the truth. | 和从说实话。 |
| 1007 | And electrical circuits within that system | 系统内部的电路 |
| 1008 | causing it to behave in such a way, | 让它有这样的行为, |
| 1009 | when it's scared, when it's in love, | 当它害怕, 当它恋爱, |
| 1010 | where it cuddles you, | 在那里它拥抱你, |
| 1011 | because that's what the electrical circuits hold it to do. | 因为电路是用来维持的 |
| 1012 | Yes, but is there an inner world associated with that, | 是的,但有一个内在世界与此相关, |
| 1013 | or is it just going through the motions? | 还是只是通过动议? |
| 1014 | Here's how I think it's gonna likely turn out. | 我想事情会变成这样 |
| 1015 | We'll have these artificial systems, | 我们会有这些人工系统, |
| 1016 | they'll start to say these things. | 他们会开始说这些话。 |
| 1017 | At first we'll be like, oh, come on, come on, come on. | 一开始我们会像,哦,来吧,来吧,来吧。 |
| 1018 | It's not real. | 非实相. |
| 1019 | But we'll start to get used to them behaving just like we | 但我们会开始习惯他们的行为 就像我们一样 |
| 1020 | in the sense of having these inner worlds. | 在拥有这些内在世界的意义上。 |
| 1021 | And sooner or later, through a process | 迟早,通过一个过程 |
| 1022 | that's so perhaps slow that we don't even notice it, | 这也许太慢了 我们甚至没有注意到它, |
| 1023 | we will afford them consciousness. | 我们会让他们有意识的 |
| 1024 | We will talk to them as if they're conscious. | 我们会和他们谈话,好像他们有意识一样 |
| 1025 | We will imagine that they're conscious. | 我们会想象他们有意识 |
| 1026 | And ultimately we will treat them as if they're conscious. | 我们最终会把他们当成有意识的 |
| 1027 | And I hope that we do that in a good way. | 我希望我们这样做的方式是好的。 |
| 1028 | We have a terrible history of treating conscious beings | 我们治疗有意识的人的历史很糟 |
| 1029 | in a respectful way, even in the same species, right? | 在尊重的方式, 即使在同一物种,对不对? |
| 1030 | We've done terrible things to each other, | 我们互相做了可怕的事 |
| 1031 | even though we afford consciousness. | 即使我们有意识 |
| 1032 | We do terrible things to animals. | 我们做可怕的事情 动物。 |
| 1033 | I'm vegan. | 我素食主义者。 |
| 1034 | I don't eat any animal products. | 我不吃任何动物产品。 |
| 1035 | I think that's not the way to treat a living system | 我觉得这不是对待活人的方法 |
| 1036 | that has some level of conscious awareness. | 这有一定程度的意识。 |
| 1037 | I do eat plants. | 我确实吃植物 |
| 1038 | I don't think plants have a sufficiently high level | 我觉得植物的含量不够高 |
| 1039 | of consciousness, if at all, that I'm concerned | 意识,如果有的话,我担心 |
| 1040 | about cutting them and eating them. | 关于切除和吃掉它们。 |
| 1041 | Have you always been vegan? | 你一直都吃素吗? |
| 1042 | I've been vegan since 1993. | 我从1993年开始吃素 |
| 1043 | Oh damn, since high school. | 哦,该死的,从高中开始。 |
| 1044 | So I've been vegetarian since I was nine years old. | 所以我从9岁开始就一直吃素. |
| 1045 | And so that's how I treat living | 所以,这就是我如何对待生活 |
| 1046 | or conscious beings, because I don't think it's right | 或有意识的人, 因为我不认为这是对的 |
| 1047 | to treat them that way. | 那样对待他们 |
| 1048 | What was the catalyst for that decision? | 作出这一决定的催化剂是什么? |
| 1049 | Well, when I was nine years old, it was very flat-footed. | 当我九岁的时候,它非常平脚。 |
| 1050 | My mother cooks spare ribs. | 我妈妈煮了多余的肋骨 |
| 1051 | And for the very first time, I realized what meat was. | 我第一次意识到什么是肉 |
| 1052 | I'm a city kid. | 我是一个城市的孩子。 |
| 1053 | I grew up where meat was in cellophane. | 我从小就在大提琴里长大 |
| 1054 | You buy it wrapped at the supermarket. | 你在超市买的 |
| 1055 | But when the meat came on a bone, I was like, wait a second. | 但当肉从骨头上掉下来时,我就想,等一下 |
| 1056 | What is this? | 这是什么? |
| 1057 | I was like, oh my God, this is like the rib of an animal. | 我就像,哦,我的上帝, 这就像动物的肋骨。 |
| 1058 | And I said, I'm never gonna eat meat again. | 我说,我再也不吃肉了 |
| 1059 | Later on, I did eat cheese and milk. | 后来,我吃奶酪和牛奶。 |
| 1060 | I wasn't vegan at that point. | 我那时不是素食主义者 |
| 1061 | But when I was a professor at Cornell in the 1990s, | 但我在1990年代当康奈尔的教授时 |
| 1062 | 我去了纽约Watkins Glen的动物保护区 | |
| 1063 | where they showed you what happens to these animals | 在那里他们告诉你这些动物的下场 |
| 1064 | when they are treated like milk factories, | 当他们被像牛奶厂一样对待的时候, |
| 1065 | what happens to the cows, and it's awful. | 牛的下场很可怕 |
| 1066 | And within 72 hours after visiting that animal sanctuary, | 在参观动物保护区72小时内 |
| 1067 | I said, I'm done. | 我说,我受够了。 |
| 1068 | I'm not participating any longer. | 我不再参加 |
| 1069 | I'm not gonna eat or drink or imbibe any living, | 我不会吃 喝 或注入任何生活, |
| 1070 | any substance that came from an animal. | 任何来自动物的物质。 |
| 1071 | And so that was the end for me. | 所以,这就是我的结局。 |
| 1072 | For some people, it might be somewhat surprising | 对有些人来说,这也许有点令人惊讶 |
| 1073 | to hear that from a physicist. | 从物理学家那里听到的 |
| 1074 | I agree, it's inconsistent. | 我同意,这是不一致的。 |
| 1075 | Because if I believe, as I do, | 因为如果我相信,像我一样 |
| 1076 | that you and I are just a collection of particles | 你和我只是一堆颗粒 |
| 1077 | in one configuration, and the cow or the pig | 牛或猪 |
| 1078 | is just a collection of particles in a different, | 只是一个不同的粒子集合, |
| 1079 | what does it matter if you eat particles | 吃颗粒有什么关系 |
| 1080 | in one configuration that we call a cow | 在一个我们称之为牛的配置中 |
| 1081 | or another configuration that we call a carrot? | 还是我们称之为胡萝卜的另一种配置? |
| 1082 | But as a human being, I allow the other parts of me | 但是作为一个人,我允许我的其他部分 |
| 1083 | to shine through, and I look at that collection | 我看着那些收藏 |
| 1084 | of particles that happens to be a cow, | 碰巧是牛的微粒, |
| 1085 | and I say, it just doesn't feel right to me | 我说,我感觉不对 |
| 1086 | to eat that collection of particles. | 吃这堆粒子。 |
| 1087 | It just doesn't feel right, and I don't wanna do it. | 只是感觉不对 我不想做 |
| 1088 | Brian, you've written many fascinating books. | 布赖恩,你写了很多迷人的书 |
| 1089 | I've got some of them here. | 我这里有一些 |
| 1090 | I think there's one other that I'm missing, I believe. | 我想还有另一个我想不见了 |
| 1091 | Yeah, there's more of a kid's book, I think. | 是啊,还有更多的孩子的书,我想。 |
| 1092 | Oh, that's the kid's book. | 哦,那是孩子的书。 |
| 1093 | For my listeners at home, what is the most interesting thing | 对我家里的听众来说 最有趣的是 |
| 1094 | that we haven't talked about, that we should've talked about, | 我们没有谈论, 我们应该谈论, |
| 1095 | that exists within your works that I guess is relevant, | 你作品中存在的,我想是相关的, |
| 1096 | either fascinating or somewhat relevant | 要么迷人 要么有点相关 |
| 1097 | to their everyday life? | 他们的日常生活? |
| 1098 | Yeah, well, I'm gonna go more on the fascinating | 是啊,好吧,我会去 更多的迷人 |
| 1099 | than relevant to everyday life. | 与日常生活无关 |
| 1100 | As you know, I'm pretty esoteric in these kind of things. | 如你所知,我对这种事很熟悉 |
| 1101 | But in the book Until the End of Time, | 但是,在书 直到时间的尽头, |
| 1102 | I tried to give the reader a sense of how we got here, | 我试图让读者了解我们是如何来到这里的 |
| 1103 | but I also then turned to the future | 但我后来也转向未来 |
| 1104 | and tried to give them a sense of what will be | 并试图让他们 感觉什么将是 |
| 1105 | if we go arbitrarily far into the future. | 如果我们任意进入未来 |
| 1106 | And yeah, that's it. | 是的,就是这样。 |
| 1107 | I used a metaphor of the Empire State Building, | 我用了帝国大厦的比喻 |
| 1108 | which I think helps you get a feel | 我觉得这能帮助你感受 |
| 1109 | for what the universe will be like | 对于宇宙将是什么样子 |
| 1110 | if you take the current understanding | 如果你接受现在的理解 |
| 1111 | of the laws of physics and extrapolate | 物理定律和推断 |
| 1112 | arbitrarily far into the future. | 任意进入未来 |
| 1113 | And so to try to give people a sense, | 所以为了给人们一种感觉 |
| 1114 | I asked them to imagine that every floor | 我让他们想象每一层楼 |
| 1115 | of the Empire State Building represents an era of time | 帝国大厦代表了一个时代 |
| 1116 | that's 10 times longer than the floor below. | 这比下面的地板长10倍 |
| 1117 | So like at the ground floor, that's like one year, | 所以就像在底层, 这就像一年, |
| 1118 | and then the next floor, 10, next is the 100, | 下一个楼层,10,下一个是100, |
| 1119 | 1,000, 10,000, 100,000, and so forth, | 一千,一万,十万,等等, |
| 1120 | exponentially larger time scales | 指数较大的时间尺度 |
| 1121 | as you walk up the stairs of the Empire State Building. | 当你走上帝国大厦的楼梯时 |
| 1122 | Now, in this way of thinking about things, | 现在,通过这种思考方式, |
| 1123 | everything from the Big Bang until today | 从大爆炸到今天的一切 |
| 1124 | takes you to just about here, the 10th floor. | 带你到这里,10楼。 |
| 1125 | We were about 10 to the 10 years from the beginning. | 从一开始我们大概是10到10年。 |
| 1126 | And what I do is I take the audience from that point | 我要做的就是从这里吸引观众 |
| 1127 | and I step through the key markers | 我踏进关键标记 |
| 1128 | in the far future of the universe | 在宇宙遥远的未来 |
| 1129 | to give you a feel for what will happen. | 让你感觉到会发生什么 |
| 1130 | And I can sort of take you through a couple milestones, | 我可以带你通过几个里程碑, |
| 1131 | right? | 对吧? |
| 1132 | So again, here we are today. | 再说一遍,我们今天在这里。 |
| 1133 | Stop when it gets scary. | 当它变得可怕时停止。 |
| 1134 | Yeah, well, it's scary the whole way. | 是啊,这是可怕的整个过程。 |
| 1135 | So here we are, 10 to the 10 years from the beginning. | 因此,我们在这里,10到10年 从开始。 |
| 1136 | If you just go up to here, 10 to the 11 years, | 如果你只在这里,10到11年, |
| 1137 | what happens here is the sun will get bigger and bigger. | 这里发生的是太阳会越来越大 |
| 1138 | It swells. | 肿胀. |
| 1139 | It eats up the close planets, Mercury and Venus. | 它会吞噬接近的行星,水星和金星. |
| 1140 | It may swallow up the Earth too, we're not sure, | 它可能会吞噬地球, 我们不确定, |
| 1141 | but certainly it will make life on Earth | 但它必定使 地球上的生命 |
| 1142 | virtually impossible because it will be so hot | 几乎不可能,因为它会这么热 |
| 1143 | on this planet. | 在这个星球上 |
| 1144 | If you go up to the next floor above that, | 如果你爬到楼上的一楼 |
| 1145 | 10 to the 12 years from the beginning, | 从开始的10年到12年 |
| 1146 | what you find here is that the universe | 你在这里发现的是宇宙 |
| 1147 | is expanding ever more quickly, | 越来越快地扩张, |
| 1148 | driving the distant galaxies away | 驱赶遥远的星系 |
| 1149 | faster than the speed of light. | 比光速还快 |
| 1150 | So we won't see them. | 所以我们不会看到他们。 |
| 1151 | So a future astronomer here | 未来的天文学家 |
| 1152 | looking out into the deep night sky will see only darkness. | 看着深夜的天空 只看到黑暗 |
| 1153 | In the deep, deep night sky, | 在深,深夜的天空, |
| 1154 | everything will have drifted beyond the cosmic horizon. | 一切都会漂移到宇宙的地平线之外 |
| 1155 | Why will it be going faster than the speed of light? | 为什么会比光速更快呢? |
| 1156 | Because we have found surprisingly | 因为我们发现很意外 |
| 1157 | that the expansion is speeding up. | 扩张正在加速 |
| 1158 | And there's no limit to that? | 然则无穷乎? |
| 1159 | There doesn't seem to be a limit. | 似乎没有限制。 |
| 1160 | Now again, there's always assumptions | 现在再说一遍,总是有假设 |
| 1161 | in every prognostication, | 在一切预言中, |
| 1162 | assuming that what we measure and see today will persist. | 假设我们今天衡量和看到的将持续下去。 |
| 1163 | It's like what the AI people are assuming | 就像人工智能的假设 |
| 1164 | that the growth that they see today will persist. | 他们今天看到的增长将持续下去。 |
| 1165 | Is that true? | 是吗? |
| 1166 | We don't know, but it's our best guess | 我们不知道,但这是我们最好的猜测 |
| 1167 | from the laws of physics that it will. | 从物理定律 它会。 |
| 1168 | If you then go up to about here, | 如果你再到这里 |
| 1169 | the 20th floor, something interesting happens. | 20楼,发生了一些有趣的事情。 |
| 1170 | If the earth is still here, | 如果大地还在的话 |
| 1171 | if it wasn't swallowed up on the 11th floor | 如果不是在11楼被吞掉的话 |
| 1172 | by the swelling sun, | 以膨胀的太阳盟誓, |
| 1173 | the earth is gonna spiral into the dead sun | 地球将螺旋进入死亡的太阳 |
| 1174 | because we'll lose energy through gravitational radiation. | 因为我们会失去能量 通过引力辐射。 |
| 1175 | Ripples in the fabric of space | 空间结构中的波纹 |
| 1176 | will cause the orbit of the earth to decay. | 会导致地球轨道衰减 |
| 1177 | We will crash in to the dead sun. | 我们会撞上死去的太阳 |
| 1178 | That will be the end of the earth | 那将会是地球的尽头 |
| 1179 | by about the 20th floor. | 大约20楼。 |
| 1180 | But the end of life itself took place. | 但生命的终结本身却发生了. |
| 1181 | Could easily have taken much earlier. | 可能已经很早了。 |
| 1182 | On the 11th floor. | 十一楼. |
| 1183 | If we go up to about the 30th floor, | 如果我们爬到30楼左右 |
| 1184 | what will happen here is that the stars themselves | 这里会发生的是星星本身 |
| 1185 | will spiral into the black hole | 将螺旋进入黑洞 |
| 1186 | at the center of most galaxies. | 在大多数星系的中心。 |
| 1187 | So most galaxies have a black hole. | 所以大多数星系都有一个黑洞. |
| 1188 | We have one in the center of our Milky Way galaxy. | 我们银河系中心有一个 |
| 1189 | And the stars themselves, | 与众星, |
| 1190 | much like the earth will spiral into the sun, | 地球会升入太阳 |
| 1191 | the stars will spiral into the black hole, | 恒星会进入黑洞, |
| 1192 | which means there'll be only kind of black holes | 也就是说只有黑洞 |
| 1193 | as the remaining macroscopic structure in the universe. | 作为宇宙中剩下的宏观结构 |
| 1194 | Has that happened elsewhere? | 发生在别处吗? |
| 1195 | Oh, certainly. | 当然 |
| 1196 | We see things that can spiral into black holes. | 我们看到的东西可以螺旋 进入黑洞。 |
| 1197 | And it's certainly even in the center of our galaxy, | 甚至在银河系的中心 |
| 1198 | there's evidence that there's activity there. | 有证据表明那里有活动 |
| 1199 | And that activity in part is stars being ripped apart | 这种活动的一部分是恒星被撕裂 |
| 1200 | as they fall into a black hole. | 他们掉进黑洞 |
| 1201 | So this is pretty clear that this will happen. | 很明显,这将会发生。 |
| 1202 | Is this the end of all galaxies | 这就是所有星系的终结 |
| 1203 | as they spiral into the black hole? | 当它们进入黑洞时? |
| 1204 | Yeah, so after 10 to the 30, 10 to the 35 years, | 是啊,所以10到30年,10到35年, |
| 1205 | it's hard to imagine that galaxies, | 很难想象星系 |
| 1206 | as we know them, will persist. | 正如我们所知,我们将继续坚持下去。 |
| 1207 | The stars will have burned out. | 星星会烧尽的 |
| 1208 | I couldn't even mention another milestone. | 我甚至不能提到另一个里程碑。 |
| 1209 | Around the 14th floor, almost all stars | 在14楼附近,几乎全是星星 |
| 1210 | will have used up their nuclear fuel. | 他们的核燃料已经耗尽了 |
| 1211 | All of them. | 一切众生. |
| 1212 | Just about all of them will fade to black. | 差不多他们都会变黑 |
| 1213 | All of them in the whole universe. | 它们都存在于宇宙中 |
| 1214 | Yeah, yeah. | 对 对 |
| 1215 | Or at least the observable universe. | 或者至少是观测到的宇宙 |
| 1216 | I can only really speak to the part | 我只能跟那个角色说话 |
| 1217 | that we have direct access to, yeah. | 我们直接接触,是的。 |
| 1218 | And so by the 30th floor, those dark stars | 所以在30楼,那些黑暗的星星 |
| 1219 | will spiral into black holes. | 将进入黑洞 |
| 1220 | So there could be no life anywhere. | 因此,不可能有生命 任何地方。 |
| 1221 | It's hard to imagine. | 难思惟. |
| 1222 | But let's be optimistic and imagine that somehow | 但让我们乐观一下 想象一下 |
| 1223 | there is some life floating in the darkness | 在黑暗中飘荡着一些生命 |
| 1224 | because I want to get to something interesting | 因为我想找点有趣的事 |
| 1225 | on two more milestones. | 在两个里程碑上。 |
| 1226 | By the 38th floor, wherever that is, | 在38楼,无论那里, |
| 1227 | we believe that protons, which are the heart of matter, | 我们相信质子是物质的核心 |
| 1228 | will likely themselves disintegrate, fall apart. | 将自己解体,分裂。 |
| 1229 | And so if there is any remaining organized matter | 所以如果还有组织上的问题 |
| 1230 | of the sort that we're familiar with, | 那种我们熟悉的, |
| 1231 | somehow persisting somewhere, | 不知何故坚持某处, |
| 1232 | it itself will disintegrate by the 38th floor. | 它本身会在38楼解体 |
| 1233 | That's our belief based on our laws of physics. | 这是我们基于物理定律的信念. |
| 1234 | There'll be no matter anywhere. | 将无所着. |
| 1235 | There will be fine particulate constituents | 会有细微的颗粒成分 |
| 1236 | because when a proton falls apart, | 因为当一个质子崩溃时, |
| 1237 | it doesn't disappear. | 它不会消失的 |
| 1238 | It falls apart into other more refined particles. | 它分解成其他更精细的粒子. |
| 1239 | And so they will continue to persist, | 他们将永居其中, |
| 1240 | but the aggregate called the proton will not. | 但称为质子的总和不会。 |
| 1241 | If we keep on going to roughly say the 50th floor, | 如果我们继续说大约50楼 |
| 1242 | this is an interesting point. | 这是一个有趣的问题。 |
| 1243 | Because imagine that somehow some conscious being | 因为想象一下 不知何故一些意识 |
| 1244 | still exists in the darkness of space. | 仍然存在于太空的黑暗中 |
| 1245 | I don't know how it is. | 曰如何是无明. |
| 1246 | Dark clouds of particles somehow | 不知何故,粒子的暗云 |
| 1247 | are having electrical signals allowing them | 正在有电讯 允许他们 |
| 1248 | to generate some kind of conscious self-awareness. | 产生某种自觉意识 |
| 1249 | After the 50th floor, | 50楼后, |
| 1250 | that conscious being will likely think its final thought. | 意识会考虑它的最后想法 |
| 1251 | The reason is when you think it generates heat, | 原因是当你认为它产生热, |
| 1252 | that heat has to be carried away. | 热量必须消耗掉 |
| 1253 | It's very easy for that heat to leave us in a room like here | 这么热就把我们丢在这里 |
| 1254 | because there's a lot of room for that so-called heat | 因为那所谓的热量有很大的空间 |
| 1255 | or entropy to be absorbed. | 或拟吸收的py. |
| 1256 | By the 50th floor, | 在50楼, |
| 1257 | the universe won't be able to absorb the heat | 宇宙将无法吸收热量 |
| 1258 | generated by the process of thought itself. | 由思想过程本身产生。 |
| 1259 | So any thinking being, | 所以,任何想法是, |
| 1260 | when it thinks one more thought will burn up, | 当它觉得一个想法会燃烧起来的时候, |
| 1261 | it'll fry in the entropic waste, | 它会烧在 热带废物, |
| 1262 | the heat generated by thought itself. | 由思想本身产生的热量。 |
| 1263 | So by the 50th floor, | 所以,在50楼, |
| 1264 | it is hard to imagine any kind of consciousness | 很难想象任何一种意识 |
| 1265 | continuing to exist. | 继续存在。 |
| 1266 | And that's why I said earlier, | 这就是为什么我之前说, |
| 1267 | when you said, do you think that we'll live forever? | 你说,你认为我们会永远活着吗? |
| 1268 | I'm thinking here and I'm like, | 我想在这里,我想, |
| 1269 | well, maybe we'll live to here, | 好吧,也许我们会住在这里, |
| 1270 | like 500 years or a thousand years, but here, no way. | 五百年或一千年, 但在这里,没有办法。 |
| 1271 | It's hard for me to imagine | 我很难想象 |
| 1272 | that we will continue to persist. | 我们将继续坚持下去。 |
| 1273 | By the 68th floor, | 到68楼 |
| 1274 | black holes themselves will begin to disintegrate. | 黑洞本身会开始消散 |
| 1275 | Stephen Hawking showed us that black holes | 史蒂芬,你好吗? 霍金向我们展示了黑洞 |
| 1276 | are not fully black. | 并非完全为黑色。 |
| 1277 | When you take quantum physics into account, | 当你考虑到量子物理学, |
| 1278 | they can emit particles that will waft outward, | 它们能射出微粒, |
| 1279 | causing the black hole to shrink. | 导致黑洞缩小。 |
| 1280 | And over time, the black hole itself will disappear. | 随着时间的推移,黑洞本身将消失。 |
| 1281 | A black hole the size of our sun, | 黑洞的大小和太阳一样大 |
| 1282 | but the mass of our sun, | 惟我们的太阳, |
| 1283 | about 10 to the 68 years for that to happen. | 大约10到68年 事情才会发生 |
| 1284 | A black hole of the gargantuan sort | 一个黑洞的甘棠类 |
| 1285 | that we think might exist, | 我们认为可能存在, |
| 1286 | billions and billions of times more massive the sun, | 几十亿倍的太阳 |
| 1287 | it'll take about 10 to the hundred years, | 大约需要10到100年的时间 |
| 1288 | very top of the empire state building | 帝国大厦的顶层 |
| 1289 | for that kind of black hole to disintegrate. | 那样的黑洞就会解体 |
| 1290 | But by the time we get here, | 但是,当我们到达这里的时候, |
| 1291 | 10 to the hundred years into the future, | 未来10到100年 |
| 1292 | we suspect it will just be detritus of particles | 我们怀疑它只是粒子的破碎 |
| 1293 | wafting through an ever larger, ever colder, | 穿过一个越来越大,越来越冷的, |
| 1294 | ever quiet universe. | 宁静的宇宙 |
| 1295 | That's the future that we're looking at. | 这就是我们所展望的未来。 |
| 1296 | And then when does the big bang kick off | 然后大爆炸什么时候开始 |
| 1297 | and it all start again? | 这一切又开始了? |
| 1298 | Well, it's interesting because you're absolutely right. | 嗯,这很有趣 因为你绝对是对的。 |
| 1299 | You can say, what about beyond the top | 你可以说,什么是超越顶部 |
| 1300 | of the empire state building? | 帝国大厦? |
| 1301 | Now things, look, this whole thing is speculative, right? | 现在,事情,你看, 这整件事是推测,对不对? |
| 1302 | We are extrapolating from laws of physics | 我们正在推断物理定律 |
| 1303 | that we've developed on thinking about physics here. | 我们研究物理学 |
| 1304 | We're assuming that it applies all the way up | 我们假设它一直应用在上方 |
| 1305 | into the exponentially far future. | 进入极远的未来 |
| 1306 | Is that true? | 是吗? |
| 1307 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 1308 | It's our best guess based on what we know today, | 根据我们今天所知,这是我们最好的猜测 |
| 1309 | but definitely it is an assumption. | 但这绝对是一个假设。 |
| 1310 | If you extrapolate even further, | 如果你再进一步推断 |
| 1311 | then yeah, you can imagine that way, | 然后是的,你可以想象那样, |
| 1312 | an exponential of an exponential of years into the future. | 未来数年的指数 |
| 1313 | Sure, could particles somehow recoalesce just by chance | 当然,粒子可能只是偶然重现 |
| 1314 | and build a state of matter | 并建立一个状态 |
| 1315 | that might generate another big bang | 那可能会引发另一个大爆炸 |
| 1316 | and it all starts again? | 这一切又开始了? |
| 1317 | Yes, definitely within the realm of possibility. | 是的,绝对有可能 |
| 1318 | So it's not the most appealing future. | 所以这不是最吸引人的未来 |
| 1319 | Well, I agree, but here, can I tell you my take on it? | 好吧,我同意,但在这里, 我可以告诉你我的承担吗? |
| 1320 | Sure. | 当然 |
| 1321 | My take on it is when you realize that, | 我的看法是 当你意识到, |
| 1322 | you know, the far future is a realm of darkness. | 你知道,遥远的未来是一个黑暗的世界。 |
| 1323 | And when you also realize that until life emerged, | 当你也意识到, 直到生命出现, |
| 1324 | say on planet earth, | 在地球上说, |
| 1325 | it was a kind of realm of chaotic conglomeration | 这是一种混乱的集合领域 |
| 1326 | of particles, you know, before. | 粒子,你知道,之前。 |
| 1327 | So it's as if we're living in a special time. | 故如是等诸众生于特时. |
| 1328 | We're living at a special region | 我们住在特殊区域 |
| 1329 | in the cosmological unfolding | 宇宙运动中 |
| 1330 | when living beings like ourselves | 当生命像我们一样 |
| 1331 | and consciousness as we experience | 和我们经历的知觉 |
| 1332 | is compatible with the state of the universe. | 符合宇宙的状态。 |
| 1333 | How wondrous, how spectacular | 多么奇妙,多么壮观 |
| 1334 | that there is this brief window of time. | 有个短暂的时间之窗 |
| 1335 | I mean, Nabokov had this wonderful saying | 我的意思是,纳博科夫有一句美妙的话 |
| 1336 | that we live in a brief crack of light | 我们生活在短暂的光线下 |
| 1337 | between two eternal stretches of darkness. | 两段永恒的黑暗之间 |
| 1338 | How beautiful to exist in that brief crack of light. | 在短暂的光线下生存是多么美丽 |
| 1339 | And that to me is where the gratitude comes from | 对我来说,这就是感恩之源 |
| 1340 | that I was mentioning earlier. | 我刚刚提到的。 |
| 1341 | You said earlier, like what gives your life meaning | 你刚才说,像是什么让你的生命意义 |
| 1342 | the fact that we understand | 我们理解的事实 |
| 1343 | that we live in this very special era | 我们生活在一个非常特殊的时代 |
| 1344 | in cosmological history, | 在宇宙学史, |
| 1345 | where for a small period of cosmic time, | 在宇宙的一小段时间, |
| 1346 | living beings can stand up, look around, | 活着的人可以站起来,看看周围, |
| 1347 | contemplate themselves and the universe | 思考自己和宇宙 |
| 1348 | and gain some insight. | 获得一些洞察力。 |
| 1349 | And then it all goes away. | 然后一切便灭. |
| 1350 | But how wonderful that there is that brief moment | 但有那么短暂的时刻是多么美妙 |
| 1351 | that we are now inhabiting. | 我们现在住在这里。 |
| 1352 | It is wonderful when you say it like that. | 你这么说真好 |
| 1353 | Brian, the thing that I think is most special about you | 布莱恩,我觉得你最特别的事 |
| 1354 | isn't just the extent of your intelligence. | 不只是你的智力范围 |
| 1355 | It's your ability to communicate in such a way | 你这样沟通的能力 |
| 1356 | that makes the complex both interesting and understandable. | 这使得复杂 既有趣又可以理解。 |
| 1357 | And that's what I've seen throughout all of your work | 这也是我在你所有工作里看到的 |
| 1358 | and all the videos that I was, | 和所有视频,我是, |
| 1359 | I was told you I was watching your TED talk | 有人说我在看你的TED演讲 |
| 1360 | with my fiance a couple of weeks ago. | 和我的未婚夫几个星期前。 |
| 1361 | And it's the closest I've ever come | 这是我最亲近的一次 |
| 1362 | to actually understanding this concept | 真正理解这一概念 |
| 1363 | called string theory. | 称为弦理论. |
| 1364 | Oh, great. | 哦,伟大的。 |
| 1365 | Well, I'm glad to hear that and thank you very much. | 我很高兴听到这个消息,非常感谢你 |
| 1366 | Really appreciate that. | 非常感谢 |
| 1367 | I have a couple of your books here. | 我这里有你的几本书 |
| 1368 | I think this is the most recent one from 2020 | 我想这是从2020年开始的 |
| 1369 | called Until the End of Time, | 叫做直到时间的尽头 |
| 1370 | Mind, Matter and Our Search for Meaning | 思想、物质和我们寻找意义 |
| 1371 | in an Evolving Universe. | 在一个不断演变的宇宙中。 |
| 1372 | And I think, you know, your work makes us feel | 我认为,你知道,你的工作让我们觉得 |
| 1373 | so many things, but I think maybe the most important feeling | 这么多事 但我想也许最重要的感觉 |
| 1374 | it makes us feel is connected. | 这让我们觉得自己是相连的 |
| 1375 | I think we're all searching for connection | 我想我们都在寻找连接 |
| 1376 | in an increasingly lonely, isolated feeling universe. | 在一个越来越孤独, 孤立的感觉宇宙。 |
| 1377 | And so that's why I love to have these conversations | 所以我喜欢这些对话 |
| 1378 | on the show. | 在节目中。 |
| 1379 | I sometimes joke to the team that the C in it stands | 我有时对球队开玩笑 里面的C代表 |
| 1380 | for like, one of our goals is to make people feel | 我们的目标之一是让人们觉得 |
| 1381 | more connected in some capacity. | 以某种身份更紧密地联系在一起。 |
| 1382 | And you most certainly do that. | 你当然会这么做的 |
| 1383 | So thank you for having that impact on the world. | 所以谢谢你对世界的影响。 |
| 1384 | It's a very important, increasingly important impact | 这是一个非常重要,越来越重要的影响 |
| 1385 | to be having on the world. | 拥有世界 |
| 1386 | And it makes us look up, not just down, I guess. | 这让我们抬头看, 不只是低头,我想。 |
| 1387 | And that's a wonderful, wonderful thing. | 这是一件很棒的事 |
| 1388 | Well, thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 1389 | I'm gonna link all of your books below. | 我要把你所有的书都连到下面 |
| 1390 | So if people do want to continue this conversation, | 所以,如果人们真的想继续这种对话, |
| 1391 | they can continue it through all of your books here. | 他们可以在这里继续你的书。 |
| 1392 | Is there anywhere else people can go to support your work | 有没有其他人可以去支持你的工作? |
| 1393 | or learn more about your work? | 还是更多了解你的工作? |
| 1394 | Where would you direct them? | 你要把他们带到哪里去? |
| 1395 | It's during World Science Festival, you know, | 这是在世界科学节期间,你知道, |
| 1396 | worldsciencefestival.com. | 世界科学盛典. com. |
| 1397 | You'll find all sorts of conversations | 你会发现各种对话 |
| 1398 | of the sort that we're talking about here. | 那种我们在这里谈论。 |
| 1399 | Also, I'm working on a new AI. | 而且,我正在研究一个新的AI。 |
| 1400 | We're talking a lot about AI education system | 我们谈论了很多关于AI的教育制度 |
| 1401 | where AI will help people understand these ideas better, | 在那里,AI将帮助人们更好地理解这些想法, |
| 1402 | should launch sort of in the next year or so. | 应该在明年左右发射。 |
| 1403 | So keep an eye out for that kind of thing as well. | 所以也要注意这种事情 |
| 1404 | Where do people follow you? | 人从何而来. |
| 1405 | 嗯,你知道,在Twitter或Instagram上, | |
| 1406 | we post semi-frequently, | 我们半频繁地发布 |
| 1407 | but more at our YouTube channel, World Science Festival. | 但更多是在我们的YouTube频道 世界科学节上 |
| 1408 | And in terms of these books that I have in front of me, | 就我面前的这些书而言 |
| 1409 | I have four of them, different groups of people. | 我有四个,不同的人群。 |
| 1410 | Which form would you direct them to? | 你会给他们指示哪种形式? |
| 1411 | read. | 读。 |
| 1412 | Well, my favourite, if you sort of frame it in that flat-footed way, is Until the End | 好吧,我最喜欢的,如果你排序 框式的平脚方式,是直到结束 |
| 1413 | of Time because it's the more philosophical and the more, the kind of ideas that we spoke | 时间,因为它越是 哲学和更多的, 那种想法,我们说话 |
| 1414 | about here today. | 今天在这里。 |
| 1415 | But if you know, if you want to hear the hardcore of what string theory | 但是如果你知道 如果你想听什么弦理论的硬核 |
| 1416 | is or the new insights in space and time, some of the other books are more directed | 或空间和时间的新见解, 其他一些书籍 更定向 |
| 1417 | in that way. | 以这种方式。 |
| 1418 | Until the End of Time. | 至时世尊. |
| 1419 | Mind, matter and our search for meaning in an evolving universe. | 思想,物质和我们的探索 在不断演变的宇宙中的意义。 |
| 1420 | We have a closing tradition where the last guest leaves the question for next. | 我们有一个封闭的传统, 最后一个客人留给下一个问题。 |
| 1421 | The question | 问 题 |
| 1422 | is, what might be worth even more than the thing that matters most to you? | 比起你最关心的事情 还有什么价值呢? |
| 1423 | Oh, well, I would say the thing that matters most to the people I care most about, you | 哦,好吧,我会说最重要的事情 对于我最关心的人,你 |
| 1424 | know, the things that matter to my wife and my kids feels much more important than the | 我妻子和孩子所关心的事 比起 |
| 1425 | things that matter to me most because I'm so involved in that relationship, you know, | 对我来说最重要的事 因为我卷入了那种关系 |
| 1426 | that to me is the thing that trumps all elves. | 对我来说,是凌驾所有精灵的东西。 |
| 1427 | The things that marmo. | 玛莫的事 |
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