美联储主席凯文·沃什举行新闻发布会 | 2026.10.29

美联储主席凯文·沃什举行新闻发布会 | 2026.10.29 | 美剧级别字幕

发布于 2026-10-29 · 时长 34:13

字幕摘录

时间	英文	中文
0:09	Good day.	再见
0:11	This morning, the FOMC decided to maintain the target rate for the federal funds rate	今天早上,联邦金融监督局决定维持联邦基金利率的目标利率
0:16	at three and three-quarters to four percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual	四分之三到4%支持美联储的双重
0:21	mandate.	任务。
0:23	Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.	经济活动正在迅速扩展。
0:27	While uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending	虽然不确定性依然存在,部分原因是地缘政治发展,但国内支出
0:33	has been resilient.	已经具有弹性。
0:35	Productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust.	生产力增长强劲,资本投资强劲.
0:40	Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little,	就业增长与劳动力保持同步,失业率几乎没有变化,
0:46	but inflation remains elevated.	但通货膨胀仍然上升。

展开字幕全文（636 条）

序号	英文	中文
1	Good day.	再见
2	This morning, the FOMC decided to maintain the target rate for the federal funds rate	今天早上,联邦金融监督局决定维持联邦基金利率的目标利率
3	at three and three-quarters to four percent in support of the Federal Reserve's dual	四分之三到4%支持美联储的双重
4	mandate.	任务。
5	Economic activity is expanding at a strong pace.	经济活动正在迅速扩展。
6	While uncertainty remains, owing in part to geopolitical developments, domestic spending	虽然不确定性依然存在,部分原因是地缘政治发展,但国内支出
7	has been resilient.	已经具有弹性。
8	Productivity growth is strong and capital investment robust.	生产力增长强劲,资本投资强劲.
9	Job gains have kept pace with the workforce and the unemployment rate has changed little,	就业增长与劳动力保持同步,失业率几乎没有变化,
10	but inflation remains elevated.	但通货膨胀仍然上升。
11	The committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine	委员会认为,积累更多的信息将有助于委员会确定
12	the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the two percent	适当的政策立场,以确保通货膨胀及时恢复到2%;
13	goal.	目标。
14	The committee will deliver price stability.	该委员会将实现价格稳定。
15	At each policy meeting, my colleagues and I assess the economy by looking out the window.	在每次政策会议上,我的同事和我通过向外看来评估经济。
16	It's what we call interrogating reality.	这就是我们所谓的审讯现实。
17	To gauge what's really going on, it is not a task that has grown easier.	为了衡量到底发生了什么, 这不是一个越来越容易的任务。
18	So what exactly do we observe?	那么我们到底要观察什么?
19	Economic growth has strengthened.	经济增长得到加强。
20	The GDP increase in the first half of this year was revised up from an earlier estimate	上半年国内生产总值的增长与以前的估计数相比有所上升。
21	of 1.8 percent up to 2.4 percent, and the third quarter appears to have brought an even	占1.8%至2.4%,第三季度似乎带来了平
22	more rapid advance, led by healthy consumer spending, likely running above three percent	以健康消费支出为首的更快进步,可能超过3%
23	growth and business investment likely rising at about a double-digit pace.	增长和商业投资可能以两位数的速度增长。
24	Capital expenditures are at a historically high share of GDP.	资本支出在国内生产总值中所占份额历来很高。
25	High-tech investment is leading the acceleration, but there's also been a broadening in other	高科技投资正在领先加速,但其它领域也有扩大。
26	categories, and these trends bear watching.	类别,这些趋势值得关注。
27	What about the jobless rate?	失业率呢?
28	The jobless rate is lower than a year ago, and payroll growth is noticeably above last	无工作率低于一年前,工资增长明显高于上一年。
29	year's pace.	年节.
30	The four-week moving average of unemployment insurance claims continues to run at the	失业保险申请的四周移动平均数继续维持在
31	lowest level in generations.	几代人的最低水平。
32	So on the employment side of the Fed's dual mandate, conditions are quite positive.	因此在美联储双重任务的就业方面,条件相当积极.
33	And yet Americans, of course, are still dealing with inflation that has been running above	然而,美国人,当然, 仍在处理通货膨胀一直在运行之上
34	the committee's objective for close to six years.	委员会的目标将近六年。
35	It's our responsibility to get inflation down.	我们有责任降低通货膨胀。
36	That's the reason the FOMC's discussion over the last couple of days focused mainly on	这就是为什么FOMC过去几天的讨论主要集中在
37	the price stability side of our remit.	价格稳定方面我们的职权范围。
38	Since our policy action in September, we have started to see some changes in financial and	自我们9月采取政策行动以来,我们开始看到财政和经济方面出现了一些变化。
39	credit conditions.	信贷条件。
40	They have tightened for some businesses and households much as we would expect.	他们已经收紧了一些企业和家庭,正如我们所期望的。
41	Market participants are becoming somewhat more discerning in their capital allocations.	市场参与者在资本分配方面越来越明显。
42	And while overall financial conditions are tighter, I'm unwilling and unable to call	虽然总的财政状况比较紧,但我不愿意也不能打电话
43	them tight.	紧紧的
44	But broadly, these developments go in the direction of achieving a longer, more durable	但是,总的来说,这些事态发展朝着实现更长期、更持久的发展方向发展。
45	period of economic growth and price stability.	经济增长和价格稳定时期。
46	Over the last couple of days, the committee had a good discussion of the changes in the	在过去几天里,委员会就《公约》的修改进行了良好的讨论。
47	economic and financial landscape that marked this intermeeting period.	这一会议间时期的经济和金融格局。
48	We discussed geopolitical developments and fast-moving changes in technology.	我们讨论了地缘政治的发展和技术的迅速变化。
49	We observed, but we're not surprised, that financial markets showed bouts of volatility	我们注意到,但我们并不惊讶, 金融市场显示出波动的暴涨
50	and shifting correlations.	和变化的关联。
51	So as we widen the frame to survey the broad economic and financial picture,	因此,随着我们扩大范围,调查广泛的经济和金融状况,
52	real activity is clearly pointing in the right direction.	实际活动显然指向正确的方向。
53	That's good news.	这是好消息。
54	But inflation is too high.	但通货膨胀太高。
55	Energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks.	最近几周,能源和有关价格再次上升。
56	And our job is to ensure that relative price changes in some sectors do not broaden out	我们的工作是确保一些部门的相对价格变化不扩大
57	across the economy and that inflation expectations remain as they are anchored.	整个经济,通货膨胀的预期值仍然根深蒂固。
58	While these uncertainties are real, there's no lack of clarity in our purpose at the Fed.	虽然这些不确定性是真实存在的,但我们在美联储的目的并不缺乏明确性.
59	Since becoming chairman just five months ago, I've been honored to work with FOMC	自从五个月前成为主席以来我有幸与FOMC合作
60	policymakers who are unambiguous in their commitment to stable prices.	决策者明确承诺稳定价格。
61	We've made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require.	我们已明确表示,我们愿意根据情况采取行动。
62	And we have shown our willingness to act.	我们已经表明我们愿意采取行动。
63	The information we receive over the coming period will help us determine	未来期间收到的信息将有助于我们确定
64	where we want policy to be.	我们想要政策的地方。
65	And at every turn, good or bad, our job is to get monetary policy right.	不管好坏,我们的工作是使货币政策正确。
66	And that's exactly what we're doing.	这就是我们在做什么。
67	Now, with this objective in mind, we've decided on a change in our FOMC schedule	现在,考虑到这一目标,我们决定改变我们的FOMC时间表
68	starting next fall.	明年秋天开始
69	We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC.	我们认为,每年举行八次会议是财务监测中心的适当数目。
70	But in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy	但是,在2027年,一次会议将专门讨论广泛的货币政策战略。
71	with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated.	既未就联邦基金利率进行表决,也未预期政策声明。
72	The rest will be regular FOMC policy setting meetings.	其余的将是定期的FOMC政策制定会议。
73	And I expect that in 2028, we'll have two meetings dedicated to discussions of strategy	我希望在2028年,我们将举行两次会议专门讨论战略
74	and six for setting policy.	6个用于制定政策。
75	Now, what's the reasoning behind this change?	现在,这个变化背后有什么理由?
76	To me, it's quite straightforward.	对我来说,这是相当直截了当的。
77	Getting policy right involves assessing near-term developments at timely, regular,	正确处理政策涉及及时、定期、定期评估近期动态。
78	and information-rich intervals.	和丰富的信息间隔。
79	But it's equally important we reserve time and space as an intellectually diverse group	但同样重要的是,我们保留时间和空间作为一个知识多元的群体
80	for strategic deliberations, for thinking anew about big questions,	为战略审议, 为思考大问题,
81	looking out over longer time horizons, focusing, as I say, on the left side of the decimal point.	在更长的时间范围内, 专注于小数点的左侧。
82	I believe the setting of the meeting schedule and agenda is more than some administrative detail.	我认为确定会议时间表和议程不仅仅是一些行政细节。
83	It's an institutional choice, affecting the nature and the quality of our deliberations	这是一个体制选择,影响我们的审议性质和质量
84	and ultimately the wisdom of our decisions.	最终也是我们决定的智慧
85	It's yet another change to get the conduct of monetary policy on the right track.	使货币政策的实行走上正轨,这是又一个变化.
86	I appreciate your attention this afternoon.	今天下午谢谢你的注意
87	Now my time is yours, and I welcome your questions.	现在轮到你了我欢迎你的问题
88	Thank you.	谢谢
89	Colby Smith with the New York Times.	科尔比·史密斯与纽约时报.
90	There's been essentially no progress toward the 2% inflation target.	在2%的通胀目标方面基本上没有进展。
91	The labor market remains stable, as you suggested in your opening statement.	正如你在开幕词中建议的那样,劳动力市场保持稳定。
92	And most of your colleagues seem to be on board with raising rates in December.	你的大多数同事似乎都加入了12月份的提高费率。
93	So why not just raise rates today?	那么,为什么不只是提高今天的费率?
94	So it's a good question.	故曰善问.
95	I will say I read your stories the last day or two, so I must admit I sort of saw that	我要说,我读你的故事在最后一两天, 所以我必须承认,我看到了
96	question coming.	问题来了。
97	What I said in my prepared statement was information coming in the coming period will	我在准备的发言中说,未来阶段将出现的信息
98	help us tell us where we want to be, but I suspect you want a little more than that.	帮我们说出我们想去哪儿但我怀疑你想要更多
99	So let me give it a shot.	让我试试看
100	Ensuring price stability, Colby.	确保价格稳定,科尔比。
101	Quashing inflation is not about some fixed individual date on a calendar.	遏制通货膨胀并不是日历上某个固定的个别日期。
102	Same way it's not about some isolated data point.	同样的,它不是关于一些孤立的数据点。
103	If it were about those two things, this job would be easier, and we wouldn't be suffering	如果是为了那两件事这份工作就更容易了我们不会受苦
104	from nearly six years of inflation above target.	通货膨胀超过目标近六年。
105	So what's this about?	那么,这是关于什么?
106	It's about ensuring we have clear objectives, and it's about a monetary policy strategy,	这是关于确保我们有明确的目标, 它是一个货币政策战略,
107	which might sound to your ear and others like a change from the last several years.	可能听起来你和其他人的耳朵像过去几年的变化。
108	So let me step back.	让我退后
109	In the five months or so that I've been around, we've put in place what I describe as new	在五个月左右,我身边, 我们设置了我称之为新的
110	monetary medicine.	货币医学。
111	Well, what's been in that package of medicine?	那套药里有什么?
112	First thing we did when we showed up with my colleagues is we doubled down on the 2%	和同事一起出现时我们做的第一件事就是以2%的速度翻了一番
113	inflation target.	通货膨胀指标。
114	We said we own it, we're taking responsibility for it, and if you think that we're tolerating	我们说我们拥有它,我们对此负责如果你认为我们容忍
115	some inflation target somewhere in the twos, let us disabuse you of it.	在两边的某处, 某些通货膨胀目标, 让我们让你失望。
116	That was the first part of this new monetary medicine.	这是新药的第一部分。
117	Second part is we took responsibility.	第二部分是我们承担责任。
118	No anguish of central banking here, no blaming others.	这里没有中央银行的烦恼也没有责怪别人
119	It's the third thing that we've done.	即是三业.
120	We laid out for you and the world our framework.	我们为你和全世界制定了我们的框架。
121	I did it in Jackson Hole.	我在杰克逊洞里做的
122	It was part of the discussion the last couple of days.	这是最近几天讨论的一部分。
123	It was the framework that many of my colleagues skew to as well.	我的许多同事也以这个框架为出发点。
124	This is how we think about how monetary policy should work.	这就是我们如何思考货币政策应如何运作。
125	These are the transmission mechanisms, and this is how we're going to deliver.	这些是传输机制, 这就是我们如何提供。
126	Then what we do, we interrogate reality.	然后,我们做什么,我们询问现实。
127	We do that periodically.	我们定期这样做。
128	That's a very useful thing to do.	这是非常有用的事情。
129	But we don't just talk, we act.	但我们不只是说话,我们行动。
130	So in September, when we last met, we acted.	所以在9月,当我们最后一次见面时,我们采取行动。
131	We removed a dose of accommodation.	我们移走了一剂食宿
132	So what are the signposts about how this new strategy is going?	那么这个新策略的走向是什么标志?
133	Inflation compensation, as measured by swaps prices, many other measures.	以互换价格衡量的通货膨胀补偿,许多其他措施。
134	Inflation compensation is going in the right way.	通货膨胀补偿正以正确的方式进行。
135	Inflation expectations.	通货膨胀预期。
136	The world is quite unsettled.	世界相当不安。
137	If you'd say, absent the Fed, what would have happened to expectations,	如果你说,没有美联储, 会发生什么预期,
138	they might have gone the wrong way.	他们可能走错了路
139	They've gone the right way too.	他们也走对路了
140	So I feel good about those signposts.	所以我觉得这些路标不错。
141	The period right in front of us is information rich.	我们眼前的时期是信息丰富。
142	There is a lot that's happening in the world.	世界上发生了很多事情
143	My colleagues and I are keen to take notice of it.	我和我的同事们都渴望注意到这一点。
144	So in this coming period, what do I think we're going to be able to do?	那么,在接下来的时期,我认为我们能做些什么呢?
145	We're going to be able to figure out what's the appropriate protocol	我们要找出合适的程序
146	as part of this package that we started to deliver five months ago.	作为我们五个月前开始执行的一揽子计划的一部分。
147	To deliver price stability.	实现价格稳定。
148	I'm encouraged by the progress we've made in a short period of time.	我们在短期内取得的进展令我感到鼓舞.
149	But if the crux of your question is you haven't delivered yet,	但是如果你的问题的关键是你还没有交付,
150	you haven't achieved price stability, you're right about that.	你还没有实现价格稳定, 你是对的。
151	But we're working on it.	但我们正在努力
152	Thank you, Chair Warsh.	谢谢你沃什主席
153	This statement says that the accumulation of more information	这份声明说,积累更多信息
154	will help the committee determine the policy stance appropriate	帮助委员会确定适当的政策立场
155	to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal.	确保通货膨胀及时恢复到2%的目标。
156	Does that mean that the current level of the Fed funds rate	这是否意味着美联储目前的资金利率水平
157	might already be the right one?	可能已经对了?
158	Well, we've got to determine the appropriate protocol.	我们必须确定合适的程序
159	If you were listening next to me in that room the last couple of days,	如果你在那个房间里听了我几天
160	the overwhelming consensus, the overwhelming judgment	压倒性的共识压倒性的判断
161	is that what we've done in this modest area medicine,	这就是我们在这小区医学上所做的
162	starting to work some, but there's no firm conclusions.	开始工作, 但还没有确定的结论。
163	If we had a firm conclusion about the conduct of monetary policy,	如果我们对货币政策的实行有坚定的结论
164	we'd announce it to much fanfare today.	今天我们会向大家宣布
165	What we decided to do was to call these questions,	我们决定把这些问题称为问题
166	take stock of where we are, evaluate what we're seeing out the window,	评估我们在哪里评估我们所看到的窗外,
167	ask ourselves whether the period right in front of us	问自己我们眼前的时期是否
168	is likely to provide more clarity on the appropriate protocol.	可能使适当的议定书更加明确。
169	My judgment, the judgment of my overwhelming number of colleagues,	我的判断,我绝大多数同事的判断,
170	is that it would.	这是它会。
171	Mr. Chairman, thanks for taking our questions.	主席先生,谢谢你接受我们的问题。
172	Before the meeting, several members of the board and the committee	会前,董事会和委员会的几位成员
173	went out and told us that we were going to take more time,	出去说我们要花更多的时间
174	and that had a profound effect on the outlook for the funds rate.	这对基金利率的前景产生了深远的影响。
175	Were you involved in discussing that message with them?	你和他们讨论这个消息吗?
176	And if you don't mind, I'm sorry, but a protocol question,	如果你不介意,我很抱歉,但一个程序问题,
177	what will be the disclosure, public disclosure on the meetings	会议的公开和公开情况如何?
178	where you're not going to have a statement?	在那里你不会有一个声明?
179	So two questions, I'm sorry.	所以,两个问题,我很抱歉。
180	So two questions.	故二问.
181	Did you not hear the one question rule?	你没听到问题规则吗?
182	I did, but I thought there was a protocol thing I could do.	我做了,但我以为有协议的事情我可以做。
183	I would.	我会的
184	That was like a parliamentary procedure question you were asking.	这就像一个议会的程序问题你问。
185	That didn't count.	这不算
186	I hesitate to indulge the second question.	我对第二个问题犹豫不决
187	I fear what it would do, but let me see if I can do it	我害怕它会做什么,但让我看看,如果我能做到
188	and not have the slippery slope among us.	我们之间没有滑坡
189	Your first question was about my colleagues.	你的第一个问题是关于我的同事。
190	I've got 18 quite independent colleagues.	我有18个相当独立的同事
191	If you were inside that room the last couple of days,	如果你在房间里的最后几天,
192	you would come to believe that to be true.	你会相信这是真的。
193	One way to test the independence of my colleagues is,	检验我同事独立性的方法之一是
194	I don't know if you've heard, Steve,	我不知道你有没有听说过,史蒂夫,
195	but I don't submit a dot.	但我不提交一个点。
196	I don't plan on submitting a dot, but the 18 of them	我不打算提交一个点, 但其中18个
197	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}别暗示我是个全知的人
198	sending messages out.	发送消息出来。
199	That's not the committee of the FOMC that I know.	我知道这不是FOMC的委员会。
200	These are serious, sober, responsible people.	他们是严肃,清醒,负责的人.
201	We had a serious, sober discussion.	我们有一个严肃,清醒的讨论。
202	So that's the answer to that.	这就是答案。
203	On the parliamentary question, which doesn't count as a question,	关于议会的问题, 这不算是一个问题,
204	I'll just say this.	我直说吧
205	We've made a decision that at that strategy meeting in 27,	我们已决定在27年的战略会议上
206	and the two strategy meetings in 28,	和28次战略会议,
207	I do not anticipate making any policy decision,	我不期望做出任何政策决定,
208	putting out a policy statement.	发表政策声明。
209	But what might we come out with?	但我们有什么办法?
210	It's not obvious yet.	尚不显.
211	There's more news to come on that.	还有更多消息要说
212	The decision on the new format for the meetings is relatively new.	关于会议新形式的决定相对较新。
213	It was a robust discussion over a couple of meetings	这是一次热烈的讨论通过几次会议
214	of how to handle that.	如何处理。
215	As we get details of that, which are still now,	随着我们得到细节, 现在,
216	not until next fall, we'll be prepared to share them with you.	直到明年秋天我们准备和你们分享
217	Hi, Nicole Gukkan with Barron's.	嗨,妮可・古坎与巴伦。
218	Thanks for taking my question.	谢谢你接我的问题。
219	In September, you mentioned that the Fed has a role	9月,你提到美联储有一个角色
220	in sustaining the economic progress happening in America right now	保持美国的经济进步
221	and in the rising opportunities that come with it.	以及随之而来的不断增长的机会。
222	I'm wondering if you can expand on whether you see this as a mandate	我想知道你能不能进一步阐述一下你是否将此视为一项任务
223	and how you intend to fulfill that mandate.	以及你打算如何完成这项任务。
224	So the mandate was given to us by Congress.	所以国会给了我们任务
225	The mandate was deliver stable prices and deliver full employment	任务是稳定价格和提供充分就业
226	all in the context of financial stability.	在金融稳定方面。
227	Now, they gave us some other homework to do	现在,他们给我们一些其他的功课做
228	on supervision and regulation payments,	关于监督和监管付款,
229	but I presume you're talking about monetary policy.	但我猜你说的是货币政策
230	So what's the best thing we can do in this environment	因此,什么是最好的事情我们可以在这个环境
231	looking at our window to deliver on that remit?	看着我们的窗口来完成这个任务?
232	Ensure stable prices.	确保价格稳定。
233	I mentioned, I think, at a prior press conference,	我在之前的新闻发布会上提到
234	if you were trying to do the most harm,	如果你试图做最大的伤害,
235	the least well off among us,	我们当中最不富裕的人
236	you would let the last six years of inflation	你会让过去六年的通货膨胀
237	above the Fed's target, usually well above the Fed's target,	超过美联储的目标, 通常远高于美联储的目标,
238	you'd let that continue.	你会让这一切继续下去。
239	So that's the most important thing we can do	所以这是我们最重要的事情
240	as we look out the window, and that's what we plan to do.	当我们看着窗外, 这就是我们的计划。
241	You've probably heard me say this.	你可能听到我这么说了
242	We will deliver price stability.	我们将实现价格稳定。
243	No ifs, ands, or buts, and that continues to be the case.	不,如果,和,或者,但, 仍然是这样。
244	Eleanor Mueller with Semaphore	埃莉诺·穆勒和司马彪
245	wanted to ask you about the working groups,	想问你工作组的事
246	when we can expect the reports to come up	当我们可以期待的报告出来
247	and if there is anything you can preview for us,	如果你能为我们预览什么
248	whether it's on AI or data or balance sheets.	无论是在AI,数据还是资产负债表。
249	Sure.	当然
250	These five task forces are hard at work.	这五个工作队的工作很艰苦。
251	I have scarcely seen anything	我几乎没看到什么
252	that would constitute a final report,	这将是一份最后报告,
253	but I have done some periodic check-ins with them,	但我定期和他们联系
254	and I am impressed by the rigor of the intellectual discussions,	我对理智讨论的严谨印象深刻,
255	by the seriousness of the task that we've given them.	我们给他们的任务很严肃
256	Now some of the questions that I asked to kick off the reports,	现在,有些问题,我要求启动报告,
257	they want to answer those and answer	他们想回答那些问题
258	a whole range of other questions,	一系列其他问题,
259	which might go to other task forces,	可能去其他工作队,
260	but I'm impressed by what they're doing.	但我对她们的所作所为印象深刻
261	I gave them, like I told you, a year-end deadline.	我给了他们,就像我告诉你的, 年终最后期限。
262	I think some but not all of the groups	我认为有些,但不是所有的团体
263	will probably hit their deadline	可能要赶不上期限
264	and turn their homework in on time,	并及时交代功课,
265	but that just begins the process	但是这才刚刚开始
266	by which we're going to be consuming,	由此,我们将消耗,
267	which is intellectually serious work.	工作很严肃
268	That's a catalyst for us to think anew	那是我们重新思考的催化剂
269	about productivity and jobs and an inflation framework,	关于生产力和就业以及通货膨胀框架,
270	and what's the best data to help us do our job,	什么是最好的数据帮助我们做我们的工作,
271	how to think about the balance sheet task force.	如何思考资产负债表工作队。
272	These are huge intellectual investments	这些是巨大的智力投资
273	that I think are going to bear fruits	我认为将会结出果实
274	in the next policy conjuncture.	在下一个政策交汇点。
275	Unlikely to find their way into this policy conjuncture	不太可能找到他们进入这个政策交汇点
276	given the important role as consumers	消费者的重要作用
277	of these ideas that my colleagues have,	这些想法,我的同事,
278	but I will have one small announcement.	但我会有一个小宣布。
279	I previewed this when I was at an IMF meeting,	我在货币基金组织会议上预览了这个
280	much to the chagrin of some of my colleagues around here.	对我这里的一些同事来说都很重要
281	On November 16th, the Productivity and Jobs Task Force	11月16日,生产力和就业工作队
282	will be doing a field hearing	将进行现场听证
283	inviting a broad range of people who have strong views.	广泛邀请有强烈观点的人。
284	What are the implications for jobs	对工作的影响是什么?
285	in the economy near-term, medium-term, long-term?	经济的近期、中期、长期?
286	Is this a productivity miracle that's going to happen,	这是生产力奇迹吗?
287	or will it happen slowly?	还是慢慢发生?
288	I know I, for one, am keenly interested	我知道我对这个很感兴趣
289	in refining my own views on that question,	为了完善我本人对这个问题的看法,
290	but that task force decided	但特别工作组决定
291	they wanted to hear from more people	他们想听到更多人的消息
292	as part of their undertaking.	作为其承诺的一部分。
293	I plan at attending.	我打算参加
294	I might have a few words to say	我想说几句话
295	at the outset of that conference.	在会议开始时。
296	I expect the conference will go three, four hours.	我想会议会持续三四个小时
297	It'll be pretty wonky stuff.	这会是相当怪异的东西。
298	I don't know how good the material will be	我不知道材料会有多好
299	for the likes of you and your colleagues,	你和你的同事一样,
300	but it's a purpose to do a lot of listening	但它是一个目的做很多听
301	for me to interrogate the reality in front of me.	让我在我面前盘问现实
302	What do experts in their fields think about this?	他们领域的专家对此有什么看法?
303	What are the implications for the dual mandate	对双重任务有何影响?
304	that I referenced to your colleague?	我提到你的同事吗?
305	Is this going to make it harder or easier	这样会更难还是更容易
306	for us to achieve price stability	为了我们实现价格稳定
307	over the next several years?	在接下来的几年里?
308	What are the implications for jobs,	对工作有什么影响?
309	medium and long-term, but near-term, too?	中长期,但短期,太?
310	So we're going to explore those	所以我们要探索这些
311	largely in the public realm on November 16th.	主要是在11月16日公开场合
312	I look forward to seeing you there.	我期待着在那里见到你。
313	Thank you so much.	非常感谢
314	Thank you, Mr. Chairman.	谢谢你,主席先生。
315	James Rosen with Newsmax.	詹姆斯·罗森和新闻麦克斯
316	You spoke of interrogating reality.	你说过要审问现实
317	Since reality is a no-show here today,	因为现实今天是无声的
318	I'm going to satisfy myself with interrogating you.	我要通过审讯满足自己
319	You spoke earlier in your remarks here today	你刚才在这里的发言
320	about how your colleagues are serious and sober people	你的同事是怎样认真和清醒的人
321	who are committed to price stability.	他们致力于价格稳定。
322	In an event in the Oval Office on October 7th of this year,	今年10月7日的一次奥华办公室活动
323	President Trump said, and I quote,	川普总统说,我引用
324	Kevin is great, but Kevin's one vote	凯文很棒,但凯文的一票
325	out of a board with numerous people	在一个有很多人的董事会里
326	were put on by Obama and Biden and a couple by me,	被奥巴马和拜登和一对夫妇我,
327	so you have a board that would like to see the country	所以,你有一个董事会希望看到国家
328	do badly, in my opinion.	做坏事,在我看来。
329	Do you agree with those comments?	你同意这些评论吗?
330	So, James, I appreciate the question.	所以,詹姆斯,我很感激这个问题。
331	I'm not going to be responding to quotes	我不会回应引用
332	from public officials.	从公职人员。
333	What I can tell you is my experience in five months here,	我能告诉你的是我五个月后的经验
334	we just came out of a heck of a family fight,	我们刚从一场激烈的家庭争斗中出来
335	serious sober discussion.	严肃严肃的讨论。
336	I think we came to the right policy decision	我想我们做了正确的决策
337	for this moment, and I'm honored to be here	我很荣幸能来这
338	and honored to be the chairman of this group.	很荣幸能成为这个团体的主席
339	Warsh主席,Mariela Isacapurro与彭博新闻。
340	So, the economy is strong, inflation is well above 2%.	因此,经济实力雄厚,通胀率远高于2%.
341	You're saying inflation expectations	你是说通货膨胀预期?
342	are going the right way, but surveys show that	但调查显示
343	households expect inflation to remain above the Fed's goal	家庭预计通货膨胀将高于美联储的目标
344	and not just for the short term.	不仅仅是短期的
345	Using a hike today, aren't they waiting for more data?	他们今天徒步旅行是不是在等更多数据?
346	I haven't really heard the clear arguments	我还没听清楚
347	as to that decision.	关于这一决定。
348	So, do you worry that with today's decision,	你担心今天的决定吗?
349	households may not believe your pledge	家庭可能不相信您的承诺
350	to bring down inflation clearly and at sufficient speed,	明确而迅速地降低通货膨胀,
351	and instead will read this decision of holding rates steady	转而读到这个决定保持稳定的比率
352	as a sign that the central bank has, in fact,	表明中央银行事实上
353	a soft inflation target?	软通胀目标?
354	What I can do is tell you there's no soft inflation target.	我能做的是告诉你没有软通胀目标。
355	There's no implicit inflation target.	没有隐含的通货膨胀目标.
356	There's a target of price stability,	价格稳定的目标
357	PCE测得2%
358	It took six years for inflation to have the effect	通货膨胀花了6年才产生效果
359	on consumers that you reference, but I would say this.	关于你提到的消费者, 但我会说这一点。
360	When consumers interrogate reality,	当消费者询问现实
361	they look outside their window, too.	他们也看着窗外
362	They go to the gas station, too, and they see that prices are up.	他们也去加油站他们看到价格上升了
363	I am not going to be the guy who says that oil prices	我不会是那个说油价的人
364	haven't gone up, and when they fill up their tank,	当他们装满坦克时
365	they don't see it, and so inflation has gone up	他们看不到,所以通货膨胀上升了
366	in expectations in the very near term	近期内预期
367	because they're doing what we're doing, interrogating reality,	因为他们在做我们做的事审问现实
368	but if you look out over the horizon,	如果你在地平线上望着,
369	if you look at most but not all measures,	如果你多看一点,但不是所有的措施,
370	what you see is households, businesses, financial markets,	你看到的是家庭,企业,金融市场,
371	they have the confidence that they should have	他们应该有信心
372	that the central bank will deliver price stability.	中央银行将实现价格稳定。
373	Thank you, Mr. Chairman.	谢谢你,主席先生。
374	Edward Lawrence, Fox Business.	爱德华·劳伦斯,福克斯商报.
375	Do you see a direct line correlation between oil prices	你看到油价之间的直接关系了吗?
376	and the inflation we're seeing in the United States,	和我们在美国看到的通货膨胀,
377	and if so, how fast could inflation fall or react	如果是这样,通货膨胀会下降或反应多快
378	to falling oil prices?	油价下跌?
379	I don't want to engage in hypotheticals,	我不想做假设
380	but I can look out our window and see what's happened.	但我可以看着窗外看看发生了什么
381	There had been a stable correlation between oil prices	石油价格之间有稳定的相互关系
382	as they've moved up this year, generally, and interest rates,	由于他们已经在今年上调, 总体,利率,
383	not the interest rates that we control,	不是我们控制的利率,
384	but interest rates set in the market.	但利率设定在市场上。
385	That correlation has been quite strong until very recently.	直到最近,这种联系一直相当密切。
386	We've seen oil prices continue to move up,	油价不断上涨
387	largely due to geopolitical events.	主要由于地缘政治事件。
388	We've seen crack spreads between oil and refined products	我们看到石油和精炼产品之间的裂缝
389	continue to stay elevated, but what's happened?	但发生了什么事?
390	Interest rates have rolled over to the downside.	利率已回落到下行。
391	Not a Wall Street newsletter.	不是华尔街的通讯
392	I'm just telling you when I look out the window	我只是告诉你当我看着窗外
393	over the last several months, that is what we've seen.	在过去几个月里,这就是我们看到的。
394	To the extent that oil prices were to move lower,	只要石油价格下降,
395	again, probably due to geopolitical events,	也可能是因为地缘政治事件
396	that's something that we're going to have to interrogate.	这件事,我们必须审问。
397	What are the effects on the Fed's dual mandate?	对美联储的双重任务有什么影响?
398	What are the effects on financial market prices,	对金融市场价格有何影响,
399	and what are we going to do about it?	我们该怎么办?
400	Well, that's a hypothetical, and in fact,	嗯,这是一个假设,事实上,
401	if we look at financial market prices,	如果我们看看金融市场的价格,
402	and futures prices for oil,	石油的期货价格,
403	they've moved up over the course of the last several weeks,	在过去的几周里,他们已经升迁了,
404	and I can't help but take note of that, too.	我不能不注意到这一点。
405	Thank you.	谢谢
406	Claire Jones, Financial Times.	克莱尔·琼斯,金融时报.
407	Much of the growth that we're seeing in the US economy now,	我们在美国经济中看到的大部分增长,
408	and quite a bit of the inflation, too,	和相当一部分通货膨胀,太,
409	is coming from the AI boom.	是从AI的热潮。
410	There's quite a lively debate as to whether or not	关于是否
411	this is a part of the economy that's sensitive to interest rates	这是对利率敏感的经济的一部分
412	in the same way as, say, housing.	和住房一样
413	I'd love to get your sense of, you know,	我想得到你的感觉,你知道,
414	do rates need to rise more,	是否需要提高利率,
415	given that so much of the US economy now is about AI	现在美国经济的这么多都是关于AI
416	than it otherwise would if, say, you know,	而不是它会,如果,说,你知道,
417	housing was a bigger part of the story.	住房是故事的一大部分。
418	Thank you.	谢谢
419	Thank you, Claire.	谢谢你,克莱尔。
420	So there was a narrative for quite a while,	有一阵子的叙述
421	maybe even in this room,	也许甚至在这个房间里,
422	over the course of the last several press conferences.	过去几次记者招待会。
423	Well, they're going to raise rates,	嗯,他们会提高利率,
424	they're talking about raising rates,	他们谈论提高利率,
425	but it's not going to have any effect on AI,	但这不会对AI有任何影响
426	because the returns that investors are expecting	因为投资者的预期回报
427	are so different.	不一样
428	I was skeptical of that view.	我怀疑那个观点。
429	Interest rates get in the cracks.	利率在裂缝里。
430	Interest rates affect, directly or indirectly,	利率直接或间接影响,
431	almost everything.	几乎是所有的东西
432	And what have we seen since early September?	自九月初以来,我们看到了什么?
433	What we've seen inside of the technology complex,	我们所看到的科技复合体,
434	outside of the technology complex,	在技术综合体之外,
435	whether you pronounce it AI or SI, Claire, is up to you.	克莱尔,无论你宣布是AI还是SI,都由你决定.
436	What have you seen?	你看见什么了?
437	Interest rates have had an effect.	利率产生了影响。
438	You see market participants that are discriminating	你看到市场参与者歧视
439	between the kinds of investments they want to make.	在他们想要的投资种类之间。
440	You've seen credit spreads for certain assets widen out,	你见过某些资产的信用利差扩大
441	gap out.	间隙出.
442	For others, you've seen some tightening	对其他人来说,你已经看到一些收紧
443	in financial conditions, but not significantly.	在财政方面,但并不显著。
444	So on the thrust of your question of,	因此,在你的问题中,
445	with respect to the new technology	新技术方面
446	and this investment surge, do interest rates matter?	利率有关系吗?
447	I believe they do, and I don't believe	我相信他们有我不相信
448	that they're somehow divorced from the rest of the economy.	他们与经济的其余部分离婚了
449	Secondly, I'll just say this.	第二,我就这么说
450	It is convenient to say that the strength of the economy	说经济的强项很方便
451	is all about this new technology wave.	这是所有关于这个新技术浪潮。
452	In fact, if we look at the data,	事实上,如果我们看看数据,
453	really including data from the last meeting till this,	包括上次会议到现在为止的数据
454	the CAPEX story is not just robust, not just strong,	CAPEX的故事不只是强壮, 不只是强壮,
455	but it is broadening.	但它正在扩大。
456	And so if you want to tell the story somehow	所以如果你想说出这个故事
457	that this is strength we're seeing only in narrow pockets,	这就是力量,我们只看到在狭窄的口袋,
458	that's a much harder story to tell now	这故事很难说
459	than it would have been several quarters ago.	而不是在数个季度前
460	Thanks so much.	非常感谢
461	Elizabeth Schulze with ABC News.	伊丽莎白·舒尔泽与ABC新闻.
462	As you know, the midterm elections are in six days.	如你所知,中期选举在六天之内。
463	Did the midterms factor into the Fed's decision to stay on hold?	美联储决定搁置是否考虑到了期中项目?
464	And if not, how can you assure the American public	如果没有,你怎么能向美国公众保证
465	that politics were not at play here?	政治不在这里玩?
466	So politics played no role in the decision.	因此,政治在决定中没有任何作用.
467	I just spent two days with my colleagues upstairs.	我刚和同事在楼上呆了两天
468	I didn't hear an utterance about politics.	我没有听到关于政治的言论。
469	I didn't hear a reference to politics, elections,	我没有听到关于政治,选举,
470	what's happening in the next week or so.	下星期会发生什么事?
471	I didn't hear anything about it.	未闻其事.
472	And I don't believe it had any role in the decision,	而且我不相信它有任何作用在决定,
473	not just for me, but my colleagues around the room.	不只是为我,还有我的同事在房间里。
474	But I will say it's an information-rich interval	但我会说这是一个信息丰富的间隔
475	in the coming period, having nothing to do with politics.	与政治无关
476	Hi.	顿
477	Thank you, Chris Ruegeber at Associated Press.	谢谢你美联社的克里斯·鲁格伯
478	I know you don't like the statement	我知道你不喜欢这个说法
479	of economic projections, but last month they did.	经济预测, 但上个月他们做到了。
480	Your colleagues penciled in another rate hike for this year.	你的同事今年又加薪了
481	And so could you give us your sense from this meeting	所以,你可以给我们你的感觉从这次会议
482	whether you still see widespread support	您是否仍然看到广泛的支持
483	{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}今年在桌边再远一点?
484	Thank you.	谢谢
485	So the blackout period for them ends,	他们的停电期到来的时候,
486	I think, on Friday or at some point over the weekend.	我想,星期五或周末的某个时候。
487	So they might indulge you in that discussion.	这样他们就可以让你参与讨论了
488	I don't believe in forward guidance,	我不相信前进方向
489	absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis.	没有紧急情况,没有危机。
490	I have to give that caveat because in the darkest days	我必须提醒你因为最黑暗的日子
491	of the 2008 financial crisis, in part using some literature	2008年金融危机,部分使用了一些文献
492	and thinking from a very recent Nobel Prize winner,	想想最近一位诺贝尔奖得主
493	that kind of forward guidance is actually quite helpful.	这种前方指导实际上很有帮助。
494	But in normal, ordinary times, especially times	但是,在正常的,普通的时代,特别是
495	where the underlying real economy is this strong,	在基础实体经济如此强劲的情况下,
496	I don't believe in it.	信无上道.
497	I don't favor it.	我不赞成
498	I also don't believe in prejudging meetings.	我也不相信预先判断会议
499	A lot of things can happen.	很多事情会发生的。
500	So I'm not going to be able to share with you my musings	所以,我不能与你分享我的肌肉
501	about what happens when this group gets together	当这个组聚在一起时会发生什么
502	six weeks from now.	六个星期后
503	But my judgment is that we might learn a lot	但我的判断是我们可能会学到很多
504	like in my response to Kolby's question,	就像我回答科尔比的问题一样
505	we'll be, I think, better positioned to determine	我想,我们更适合决定
506	the right policy decision and the stance of policy.	正确的政策决定和政策立场。
507	Hi.	顿
508	My name is Sang Eun Lee from the Korea Economic Daily newspaper.	我是韩国经济日报的李尚恩
509	I got a question as a foreign press.	我有一个问题作为外国媒体。
510	You have spoken several times about the possibility	你说过很多次了
511	of the Fed shrinking its balance sheet further.	美联储的资产负债表进一步萎缩。
512	If that plan moves forward later,	如果这个计划后来继续发展
513	how would you avoid disrupting foreign official holders	如何避免干扰外国官员持有者
514	or treasuries or dollar funding markets abroad	或国外的国库或美元供资市场
515	like South Korea and Japan?	比如韩国和日本?
516	So thank you for your question.	所以,谢谢你的问题。
517	First off, I would say I pay probably more attention	首先,我想说,我可能更注意
518	to the Korean economy than you might think	对韩国经济来说比你想的要多
519	because when I'm looking at the feedstocks effectively	因为当我有效观察原料时
520	for this new surge in technology,	对于这个新的技术激增,
521	a lot of it's coming from Japan and Korea,	大部分来自日本和韩国
522	some from Singapore.	一些来自新加坡。
523	So I'm particularly interested in what's happening	所以我对现在发生的事特别感兴趣
524	in the Korean economy, usually because it's telling me	在韩国经济中, 通常因为它告诉我
525	what's on planes and ships coming this way.	飞机和飞船从这里过来的
526	Secondly, I should say that your new central bank governor	第二,我要说,你的新央行行长
527	is someone I've known for 20 years	是我认识20年的人
528	and is a very talented guy and a good friend.	是个很有才华的人和好朋友
529	So I'm glad he's in that post.	所以我很高兴他在那个岗位上
530	He and I met actually about 20 years ago	他和我约在20年前见过面
531	amid the global financial crisis as it would come to be known.	在全球金融危机中,人们会知道这种情况。
532	And I remember, this is a generation of discussions	我记得,这是一代人的讨论
533	with him about the use of the balance sheet	和他谈资产负债表的使用
534	in exigent circumstances like we had then.	在像我们当时这样紧急的情况下
535	At this point, the balance sheet is solely	此时,资产负债表仅仅是
536	within the four walls of the balance sheet task force.	在资产负债表工作队的四面墙内。
537	Now I have checked in with them, full disclosure,	现在,我已经检查了他们, 充分披露,
538	they're working away and comparing their best thoughts.	他们正在工作比较他们最好的想法。
539	And I think the conclusions they come to,	我认为他们得出的结论是,
540	the recommendations they come to will be fed into the FOMC	他们提出的建议将纳入财务监测中心。
541	probably early in the first quarter,	也许在第一季度初
542	but don't hold me exactly to that timing.	但别把我按在时间上
543	And if we decide to make changes in the balance sheet,	如果我们决定改变资产负债表
544	it'll be after a serious consideration	要经过认真的考虑
545	of their proposals and their recommendations.	他们的提议和建议。
546	I think it is unlikely to have any material effect	我觉得这不可能有任何物质影响
547	on this policy conjuncture,	关于这个政策交汇处,
548	but it's a question we should get to the bottom to	但这是个问题,我们应该从下到下
549	and I look forward to doing it	我期待着这样做
550	with the help of the outside task force.	在外部特遣部队的帮助下
551	Nick Timorosa,"华尔街日报".
552	Chairman Warsh, I want to follow up on your answer	Warsh主席,我想跟进你的回答
553	to Claire's question.	克莱尔的问题。
554	As the AI investment boom becomes more dependent	随着AI投资繁荣变得更加依赖
555	on external financing, does that make aggregate demand	外部融资,这是否使总需求
556	more sensitive to interest rates than it was before?	对利率比以前更敏感?
557	And related to that, when you removed	与此相关,当你离开
558	a dose of accommodation last month,	上个月的一剂住宿
559	did you see about what you bargained for?	你看到你讨价还价的事了吗?
560	So you gave me two questions and neither of them	所以,你给了我两个问题, 两个都没有
561	had any sort of parliamentary out,	任何议会出,
562	so you're giving me the opportunity	所以你给我机会
563	to choose which of those.	选择其中哪一个。
564	So I'll answer your second question.	所以我会回答你的第二个问题。
565	When we removed a dose of accommodation,	当我们去掉一剂食宿时
566	I don't know, six weeks ago,	我不知道六个星期前
567	we don't have perfect foresight	我们没有完美的远见
568	on what financial markets are going to do with it,	关于金融市场将如何处理它,
569	but broadly I would say the effects on financial markets,	但从广义上讲,我要说对金融市场的影响,
570	on financial market conditions,	金融市场状况,
571	broadly were consistent with my expectations.	大致上符合我的期望。
572	(原始内容存档于2017-09-21). Howard Schneider, Reuters.
573	Thank you, Chairman Warsh.	谢谢你,沃什主席
574	I'm going to take Nick's first question.	我要接尼克的第一个问题
575	Give it to me again, I don't remember.	再给我一次我不记得了
576	No, it's about aggregate demand	不,这是关于总需求
577	and the components of inflation.	以及通货膨胀的组成部分。
578	A lot of your colleagues have said	很多同事都说过
579	they felt the investment boom in AI	他们感受到AI的投资繁荣
580	was now adding a strong demand component to inflation,	在通货膨胀中增加了强大的需求部分,
581	and this was a handoff from the supply side concerns	这是供应方关心的问题
582	that might be expected to fade over time.	这可能会随着时间推移而消失。
583	How much do you think demand	你觉得需要多少?
584	is adding to inflation right now,	现在通货膨胀上升了
585	and how sensitive will that be to Fed control?	那对美联储会有多敏感?
586	Good, good, good, good, good pickup of that.	好,好,好,好,好,接起来
587	Good team effort.	良好的团队努力。
588	So I'd say this.	所以我会这样说。
589	The only things we really know	我们唯一知道的事
590	in economics and supply and demand cross.	经济学和供求交叉。
591	Our measures of the size and the shape	我们的大小和形状
592	of the aggregate demand curve is imperfect.	总需求曲线不完善。
593	Broadly what I heard in the room	我从房间里听到的
594	the last couple of days is consistent with my own views,	过去几天符合我的观点
595	which is the economy is strong.	这是经济的强大。
596	I didn't try to sugarcoat that	我可没想穿这个
597	in the first part of my statement.	在我发言的第一部分。
598	The economy has been marked up for the first three quarters.	经济在前三个季度有了显著发展。
599	The economy is pointing in the right direction.	经济正朝着正确的方向发展。
600	Is the economy running too hot?	经济是不是太热了?
601	Is the economy running too strong?	经济运行是否太强劲?
602	That isn't the judgment of most of my colleagues.	这不是我大多数同事的判断
603	Part of it is we never know	一部分是我们永远不知道
604	what potential growth really is, Howard.	真正的潜在增长是什么,霍华德。
605	My judgment is we have seen an improvement in productivity.	我的判断是,我们看到生产力有了提高。
606	We can't measure it precisely.	我们无法精确测量它。
607	I think most of that change in productivity	我觉得生产力的大部分变化
608	precedes everything we're talking about super intelligence.	领先于我们所说的超级智能
609	But productivity has been moving higher in the economy,	但生产率在经济中一直在上升
610	however imperfectly measured, I think for a couple of years.	不管测量的多么不完美,我想有几年了。
611	And so economic growth is higher,	因此,经济增长是更高的,
612	but that doesn't tell me that economic growth	但这并不告诉我经济增长
613	is somehow causing inflation and making our job harder.	造成通货膨胀使我们的工作更加困难
614	But we'll be continuing to look at those issues.	但我们将继续研究这些问题。
615	The goal in my view, and you've heard me say this before,	在我的眼中,目标,你听到我这样说之前,
616	isn't to throw sand in the gears of the economy	不是在经济中撒沙子
617	and throw people out of work.	并且把人赶出工作
618	I don't think we have to do that.	我认为我们不必这样做。
619	The dominant means in which this policy	政策的主要手段
620	is going to be put into practice is	将付诸实践
621	we are tightening financial conditions.	我们收紧了财政条件
622	They've tightened a bit since we met last time.	我们上次见面后他们就收紧了
623	That isn't something that we're uncomfortable with.	我们不觉得不舒服
624	It tells me that policy is working,	它告诉我,政策是有效的,
625	and I think we can do that and make the economy more durable,	我认为我们可以做到这一点并使经济更持久,
626	have it last longer, and still achieve stable prices.	时间更长,价格稳定。
627	Hi, Chair Warsh.	嗨,主席华什。
628	Victoria Guida with Politico.	维多利亚·圭达与政治家.
629	I wanted to ask, next week is a hearing at the White House	我想问,下周是白宫的听证会
630	on Lisa Cook's future and allegations	关于丽莎·库克的未来和指控
631	that have been made against her.	已经对她不利。
632	Are you personally or the Fed as an institution	你个人还是美联储?
633	going to be involved at all in those proceedings?	参与这些诉讼?
634	Not to my knowledge.	据我所知,没有
635	Thank you.	谢谢
636	Thank you, guys.	谢谢你们

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