彭博社：川普的关税政策如何遭遇现实打脸 | 2026.02.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:03 | For President Donald Trump, few things appear to matter more than… | 对唐纳德·特朗普总统来说 没有什么比... |
| 0:07 | Tariffs. | 关税。 |
| 0:08 | Reciprocal tariffs. | 对等关税. |
| 0:09 | A lot of tariffs. | 很多关税。 |
| 0:10 | The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. | 词典中最美丽的词是关税. |
| 0:13 | Now his signature policy has hit a roadblock. | 现在他的签名政策 撞上了路障。 |
| 0:18 | Trump's biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House. | 特朗普回归白宫后最大的法律败诉. |
| 0:21 | The Supreme Court striking down President Trump's tariffs. | 最高法院罢免特朗普总统关税. |
| 0:23 | The major blow to President Trump's economic agenda. | 特朗普总统经济议程的重大打击. |
| 0:26 | Two-thirds of the tariffs that President Trump implemented in 2025 have essentially been | 特朗普总统2025年执行的三分之二关税基本上是 |
展开字幕全文（142 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | For President Donald Trump, few things appear to matter more than… | 对唐纳德·特朗普总统来说 没有什么比... |
| 2 | Tariffs. | 关税。 |
| 3 | Reciprocal tariffs. | 对等关税. |
| 4 | A lot of tariffs. | 很多关税。 |
| 5 | The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff. | 词典中最美丽的词是关税. |
| 6 | Now his signature policy has hit a roadblock. | 现在他的签名政策 撞上了路障。 |
| 7 | Trump's biggest legal defeat since returning to the White House. | 特朗普回归白宫后最大的法律败诉. |
| 8 | The Supreme Court striking down President Trump's tariffs. | 最高法院罢免特朗普总统关税. |
| 9 | The major blow to President Trump's economic agenda. | 特朗普总统经济议程的重大打击. |
| 10 | Two-thirds of the tariffs that President Trump implemented in 2025 have essentially been | 特朗普总统2025年执行的三分之二关税基本上是 |
| 11 | ruled illegal. | 裁定为非法。 |
| 12 | That really has taken away one of the main ways in which President Trump has disrupted | 这确实夺走了川普总统打乱的主要途径之一 |
| 13 | the global economy. | 全球经济。 |
| 14 | But Trump says he isn't backing down. | 但特朗普说他没有退缩. |
| 15 | Today I will sign an order to impose a 10% global tariff under section 122. | 今天我将签署一项命令,在第122节下征收10%的全球关税。 |
| 16 | A day later he upped the ante, saying he'll raise that rate to 15%. | 一天后,他提升了预告,说他将把这个率提高到15%. |
| 17 | But these can only stay in place for a maximum of 150 days. | 但这些只能停留最多150天. |
| 18 | What he is going to have to do now instead is use tariff authorities that are much narrower | 他现在要做的是使用更狭窄的关税当局 |
| 19 | and in which he really has to prove an economic case for the need for them. | 他确实必须证明 经济理由来证明他们的需求。 |
| 20 | For US trading partners around the world, it's causing tariff whiplash all over again. | 对世界各地的美国贸易伙伴来说,这又引起了关税鞭打。 |
| 21 | The EU was the quickest to react so far. | 欧盟迄今为止的反应最快。 |
| 22 | They have moved to freeze the implementation of their side of the trade deal that was signed | 他们已经着手冻结执行他们签署的贸易协议 |
| 23 | with the US. | 和美国。 |
| 24 | There are a few countries that actually stand to lose despite facing lower tariffs now than | 少数国家尽管现在面临比以往更低的关税,但实际上仍然会输。 |
| 25 | before the ruling. | 在裁决之前 |
| 26 | So countries like Vietnam, what they've lost is the comparative advantage that they | 所以,像越南这样的国家, 他们失去了的是比较优势,他们 |
| 27 | had relative to China. | 与中国有关 |
| 28 | Most all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made. | 大多数国家和公司都希望保持它们已经作出的交易。 |
| 29 | So how will this affect businesses and consumers, or the trajectory of Trump's remaining three | 那么这将如何影响 企业和消费者, 或轨迹 川普剩下的三个 |
| 30 | years? | 几年吗? |
| 31 | And what happens when the 150 days are over? | 150天结束后会怎样? |
| 32 | We have maximum uncertainty over where trade policy goes from here. | 我们对于贸易政策从何而来有最大的不确定性。 |
| 33 | This wasn't a battle before the Supreme Court between President Trump and China or a faceless | 这不是在最高法庭上 川普总统与中国的争斗 也不是无面目 |
| 34 | corporation. | 连队。 |
| 35 | The main plaintiffs who challenged these tariffs were a toy company, Learning Resources, and | 对收费提出质疑的主要原告是一家玩具公司 " 学习资源 " 和 |
| 36 | a whole coalition of other small businesses who really felt like President Trump and his | 整个联盟 其他小企业 谁真正感觉 像特朗普总统和他的 |
| 37 | tariffs were an existential threat to their businesses. | 关税是对其企业生存的威胁。 |
| 38 | At the centre of the fight was a law called the International Emergency Economic Powers | 这场斗争的核心是一部名为国际紧急经济强国的法律 |
| 39 | 行动,AIIPA。 | |
| 40 | It allows a president to regulate some aspects of commerce after declaring a national emergency. | 它允许总统在宣布国家紧急状态后对商业的某些方面进行管理。 |
| 41 | Trump claimed that it gave him the power to immediately put a tariff of any level on goods | 特朗普声称,这给了他立即对商品征收任何级别的关税的权力. |
| 42 | from anywhere and the Supreme Court ruled that just wasn't the case. | 最高法院裁定事实并非如此 |
| 43 | What the court didn't make clear is what happens to the money already collected. | 法庭没有说明的是 已经收取的钱发生了什么 |
| 44 | Essentially the Supreme Court ruled that the US collected $170 billion in tariffs unconstitutionally. | 基本上,最高法院裁定,美国违反宪法征收了1 700亿美元的关税。 |
| 45 | Trump himself has indicated that this is going to take years of litigation to calculate and | 特朗普本人表示,这需要数年的诉讼来计算和计算. |
| 46 | distribute refunds. | 发放退款。 |
| 47 | There is a possibility that could just be a very clean process. | 有可能是一个非常干净的过程。 |
| 48 | The Customs and Border Protection knows who paid the tariffs and knows how to refund them. | 海关和边防局知道谁支付了关税,知道如何退还关税。 |
| 49 | There have been episodes where tariffs have been refunded in the past. | 过去曾发生过退还关税的情况。 |
| 50 | That's not unprecedented, that's not unheard of, but the scale of this I think is unprecedented. | 这并非史无前例,并非未闻,但我认为这个规模是前所未有的. |
| 51 | Think of it as the mother of all tax refunds. | 当作一切退税之母. |
| 52 | Trump had promised that foreign countries would be the ones paying for his tariffs, but… | 特朗普曾承诺外国将支付他的关税,但. |
| 53 | As it turns out, the foreign exporters aren't eating the tariffs. | 事实证明,外国出口商不吃关税。 |
| 54 | They're 90-95% passed through to US importers and their customers. | 他们90-95%通过 给美国进口商和他们的客户。 |
| 55 | Reducing the US trade deficit was one of Trump's stated goals with tariffs, but in truth they've | 减少美国贸易逆差是特朗普所宣称的关税目标之一,但事实上它们已经 |
| 56 | barely moved the needle. | 针几乎没动过 |
| 57 | The United States last year in 2025 had a trade deficit in goods of around $1.2 trillion. | 去年,美国在2025年的货物贸易逆差约为1.2万亿美元。 |
| 58 | It was almost exactly the same size as the trade deficit that it had in 2024. | 它与2024年的贸易赤字几乎完全相同。 |
| 59 | The main impact we saw from the tariffs was to reshuffle trade away from China and towards | 我们从关税中看到的主要影响是 将贸易从中国重组到 |
| 60 | Mexico and other Asian countries, more than reducing the aggregate trade deficit. | 墨西哥和其他亚洲国家不仅减少了贸易赤字总额。 |
| 61 | And so far, Trump's trade policies have failed to deliver on another long-held promise. | 而迄今为止,特朗普的贸易政策未能兑现另一个长期承诺. |
| 62 | Rekindling US manufacturing. | 重新点燃美国制造业。 |
| 63 | Trade policies will return significant manufacturing jobs to our country. | 贸易政策将使大量的制造业就业返回我国。 |
| 64 | The problem so far for President Trump is that 10 years on, the situation in manufacturing | 特朗普总统目前的问题是 十年过去了 制造业的状况 |
| 65 | doesn't look that much better. | 看上去没那么好 |
| 66 | In fact, in the last year, the US lost more than 80,000 manufacturing jobs. | 事实上,去年,美国损失了80,000多个制造业就业机会。 |
| 67 | That's even as these tariffs went into place. | 即使这些关税已经到位。 |
| 68 | A lot of manufacturers rely on imported components. | 许多制造商依赖进口的部件. |
| 69 | And if those imported components and big things that they use like steel and aluminum are | 如果那些进口的部件 和大的东西 他们使用像钢和铝 |
| 70 | more expensive as a result of tariffs, they can't hire more people. | 由于关税的影响,他们无法雇用更多的人。 |
| 71 | They can't grow. | 他们不能成长。 |
| 72 | The costs are just higher. | 费用高得多。 |
| 73 | More tellingly, if we separate that industrial production into industries that faced higher | 更能说明问题的是,如果我们把工业生产 分给面临更高的工业 |
| 74 | than average tariffs and lower than average tariffs, we see that any growth that was there | 与平均关税和低于平均关税相比,我们看到,那里的任何增长 |
| 75 | was really driven by the lower-tariff industries, things like pharmaceuticals, electronics, | 被低关税产业所驱动 比如制药 电子产品 |
| 76 | whereas the higher-tariff industries, think autos and metal sectors, faced much slower | 高关税行业,汽车和金属行业, 面临的速度要慢得多 |
| 77 | production growth. | 生产增长。 |
| 78 | Manufacturing is no longer going to be a big source of employment. | 制造业已不再是一个很大的就业来源。 |
| 79 | The jobs that have gone, most of those jobs are not coming back. | 已经失业的工作,大多数工作都不再回来了。 |
| 80 | The principal driver of that trend is not trade, it's technology. | 这一趋势的主要驱动力不是贸易,而是技术。 |
| 81 | But it's Trump's foreign policy, not domestic, that now may need to change the most. | 但是,现在最需要改变的是川普的外交政策,而不是国内政策. |
| 82 | The biggest blow to Trump from this Supreme Court decision is really how it hits his ability | 特朗普最大的打击来自这个最高法院的判决 实际上是如何打击他的能力 |
| 83 | to shape geopolitics in the world. | 塑造世界上的地缘政治。 |
| 84 | He's used tariffs to threaten India and its purchase of Russian oil. | 他使用关税威胁印度及其购买俄罗斯石油. |
| 85 | They will not be buying oil from Russia. | 他们不会从俄罗斯购买石油。 |
| 86 | He's used the threat of tariffs to also interfere in domestic politics, like in Brazil. | 他利用关税威胁也干涉国内政治,如巴西. |
| 87 | Those are all things he was able to do because of this authority he claimed that gave him | 这些都是他能够做的 因为他声称给他的授权 |
| 88 | this kind of immediate ability to increase his leverage, to apply pressure on other countries. | 这种即刻的能力可以增加他的影响力,对其他国家施加压力。 |
| 89 | But that may have backfired. | 但这可能已经退火了。 |
| 90 | I don't think there's anything wrong, by any means, with an American president seeking | 我不认为有什么错, 通过任何手段, 美国总统寻求 |
| 91 | American advantage, that's the job. | 美国优势,这就是工作。 |
| 92 | The question is, are these methods working? | 问题是,这些方法是否有效? |
| 93 | So if you think of Europe, if you think of Canada in particular, governments are weak | 所以,如果你想到欧洲, 如果你想到加拿大,政府是软弱的 |
| 94 | in many ways in relation to the US. | 在许多方面与美国有关。 |
| 95 | The demands that the US is making are so off the charts in terms of their previous experience. | 美国提出的这些要求,就他们以往的经验而言,是完全没有道理的。 |
| 96 | I think they're struggling to process it. | 我想他们正在努力处理 |
| 97 | You know, can we rely on the US commitment in NATO and the controversy that followed | 我们能否依靠美国对北约的承诺 以及随之而来的争议 |
| 98 | the president's demands about Greenland? | 总统对格陵兰的要求? |
| 99 | We want a piece of ice for world protection. | 我们要一块冰来保护世界 |
| 100 | There were Europeans who were actually wondering whether, at some point, European soldiers | 有的欧洲人实际上在怀疑, 在某些时候,欧洲士兵 |
| 101 | would be fighting US soldiers. | 将会与美军作战 |
| 102 | Extraordinary. | 不可思议 |
| 103 | All of this is happening in the run-up to the US midterm elections. | 所有这一切都发生在美国中期选举之前。 |
| 104 | Poll after poll shows that these tariffs are incredibly unpopular and that people associate | 民意调查之后的民意调查显示,这些关税令人难以置信地不受欢迎,人们也认为 |
| 105 | them with this broader issue of affordability. | 与这个更广泛的负担能力问题有关。 |
| 106 | It's just another way that they see the government making life harder, raising prices. | 这只是另一种方式 他们看到政府 使生活更困难,提高价格。 |
| 107 | Republicans should be asking themselves if they want to keep backing this policy, which | 共和党人应该自问他们是否想继续支持这项政策, |
| 108 | is just meeting obstacle after obstacle when it comes to implementation. | 它只是遇到障碍之后,在执行方面又遇到障碍。 |
| 109 | Trump wants Republicans to win the midterm elections. | 特朗普希望共和党赢得中期选举. |
| 110 | It's going to be harder for them to do so if a lot of voters don't like his signature | 如果很多选民不喜欢他的签名,他们就更难这么做了 |
| 111 | economic policy. | 经济政策。 |
| 112 | And it's something the Republican Party can't ignore, since Congress has to approve | 这是共和党不能忽视的 因为国会必须批准 |
| 113 | extending tariffs once these first 150 days are up. | 头150天的关税一旦提高 |
| 114 | A budget reckoning is looming, exacerbated by the possibility of the government issuing | 预算核算即将到来,由于政府可能发布 |
| 115 | tariff refunds. | 退税. |
| 116 | One of the big issues going forward is going to be the fiscal implications. | 今后一个重大问题是财政问题。 |
| 117 | Huge sums of money are involved. | 涉及巨额资金。 |
| 118 | And if that goes away because of refunds, then that's a new hole in the budget deficit | 如果因为退款而消失 那预算赤字就会有新的漏洞 |
| 119 | outlook. | 展望。 |
| 120 | One of the major policies implemented last year was the continuation of tax cuts and | 去年实施的一项主要政策是继续减税, |
| 121 | other expansionary fiscal policies that would otherwise raise the fiscal deficit. | 其他扩张性财政政策,否则会增加财政赤字。 |
| 122 | And the administration was really counting on this revenue from the tariffs to plug that | 行政部门真的指望 从关税收入 插上这个 |
| 123 | fiscal hole and finance the fiscal deficit. | 财税洞,为财政赤字提供资金. |
| 124 | But even with tariffs, the numbers don't add up. | 但即使加征关税,人数也并不相加. |
| 125 | With the exception of the Clinton era, the US has been running deficits steadily. | 除克林顿时代外,美国一直持续出现赤字. |
| 126 | The pandemic required massive government spending and the tariffs introduced since Trump's | 这场大流行需要大量的政府支出和自特朗普之后实行的关税。 |
| 127 | first term have made a dent. | 第一学期出现了凹陷。 |
| 128 | But the trend is the same, with the annual deficit still hovering near $2 trillion. | 但趋势不变,年赤字仍然徘徊在近2万亿美元。 |
| 129 | The public debt was on track to keep increasing in relation to the size of the economy. | 与经济规模相比,公共债务正在稳步增加。 |
| 130 | If you take the tariffs away, that fiscal gap gets very much bigger, very much bigger. | 如果你取消关税, 财政差距就会大得多,非常大。 |
| 131 | Then the question becomes, is the bond market going to be OK with that? | 那么问题就变成了,债券市场会同意吗? |
| 132 | The bigger worry is this growing sense of unease about the United States and that that | 更大的担忧是 这种日益增长的不安感 美国和 |
| 133 | roads over time the power of the dollar as the world's great reserve currency. | 随着时间的推移,美元作为世界大储备货币的力量。 |
| 134 | And that, essentially, investors around the world slowly lose confidence in the United | 基本上,全世界的投资者 慢慢地失去了对美国的信心 |
| 135 | States. | 国家。 |
| 136 | That loss of confidence is being fuelled by Trump's disdain for some of the institutions | 特朗普对一些机构的蔑视助长了这种信心的丧失。 |
| 137 | behind America's perceived strength, like the Federal Reserve and now the Supreme Court. | 美联储和现在的最高法院 |
| 138 | This isn't the last time the Supreme Court is going to weigh in on President Trump's | 这不是最高法院最后一次考虑川普总统 |
| 139 | use of presidential powers or his invocation of emergency powers. | 利用总统权力或援引紧急权力。 |
| 140 | This is the beginning of a broader potential conflict that has enormous ramifications for | 这是一场范围更广的潜在冲突的开始,这场冲突对 |
| 141 | the United States, its governance, the state of democracy, and the Constitution. | 美国,它的治理,民主状态,和宪法。 |
| 142 | But the question is, is the bond market going to be OK with that? | 但问题是,债券市场会同意吗? |
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