哈佛经济学家：总统只会关注短期增长 | 2026.6.17
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | Just for basics here, why does a president like low rates? | 为什么总统喜欢低收费? |
| 0:06 | Well, low rates are good for the government because the government's the biggest borrower | 低利率对政府有好处 因为政府是最大的借款人 |
| 0:11 | But they care about home mortgages. | 但他们关心房屋抵押贷款. |
| 0:14 | They care about car loans, student loans, | 他们关心汽车贷款,学生贷款, |
| 0:17 | commercial loans. | 商业贷款。 |
| 0:19 | Low interest rates are good for borrowers. | 低利率对借款人有好处。 |
| 0:22 | That's good for the US economy. | 这对美国经济有好处. |
| 0:24 | That's good for whoever's in power politically. | 这对在政治上掌权的人有好处. |
| 0:27 | Having low interest rates is a luxury. | 低利率是一种奢侈。 |
| 0:29 | It's great. | 赞曰. |
展开字幕全文（88 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Just for basics here, why does a president like low rates? | 为什么总统喜欢低收费? |
| 2 | Well, low rates are good for the government because the government's the biggest borrower | 低利率对政府有好处 因为政府是最大的借款人 |
| 3 | But they care about home mortgages. | 但他们关心房屋抵押贷款. |
| 4 | They care about car loans, student loans, | 他们关心汽车贷款,学生贷款, |
| 5 | commercial loans. | 商业贷款。 |
| 6 | Low interest rates are good for borrowers. | 低利率对借款人有好处。 |
| 7 | That's good for the US economy. | 这对美国经济有好处. |
| 8 | That's good for whoever's in power politically. | 这对在政治上掌权的人有好处. |
| 9 | Having low interest rates is a luxury. | 低利率是一种奢侈。 |
| 10 | It's great. | 赞曰. |
| 11 | The trouble is, if you put interest rates too low when there's inflation pressures, | 问题是,如果你把利率太低 当有通货膨胀压力, |
| 12 | it makes the price pressures go up more and get out of control. | 这让价格压力上升 失控。 |
| 13 | And so that's the balance that the central bank's trying to have. | 这就是中央银行想要的余额。 |
| 14 | The central bank | 中央银行 |
| 15 | can control inflation, but it can't necessarily choose | 能够控制通货膨胀,但它并不一定选择 |
| 16 | where the market's going to think the interest rate needs to be | 市场认为利率需要 |
| 17 | consistent with that. | 与此一致。 |
| 18 | So, I mean, the whole world looks at the Federal Reserve and they think they're setting the interest rate, my car loan, | 所以,我的意思是,整个世界看 美联储 他们认为他们在设定利率, 我的汽车贷款, |
| 19 | everything. | 一切众生. |
| 20 | It's done by the Federal Reserve. | 由美联储完成. |
| 21 | That's a gross | 真恶心 |
| 22 | misconception. | 误解。 |
| 23 | The Federal Reserve, on the whole, most central banks are trying to keep | 整个美联储,大多数中央银行都在试图保持 |
| 24 | prices stable. | 价格稳定。 |
| 25 | I don't always do a great job. | 我并不总是做一个伟大的工作。 |
| 26 | Okay, it's very hard to do, but that's what they're trying to do. | 好吧,这是非常困难的, 但这是他们试图做的。 |
| 27 | And | 还有 |
| 28 | that means they have to ask themselves the question, | 这意味着他们必须问自己问题, |
| 29 | well, if we want to keep prices stable, is the interest rate too high | 好吧,如果我们想要保持价格稳定, 利率太高了 |
| 30 | or too low? | 还是太低? |
| 31 | And so that's what they're feeling out. | 所以这就是他们的感觉。 |
| 32 | The president | 总统 |
| 33 | typically is short-term. | 通常是短期的。 |
| 34 | That short-term interest rate, what's happening right now, that's what they want to deliver. | 短期利率,现在发生的情况, 这就是他们想要实现的目标。 |
| 35 | And | 还有 |
| 36 | often cutting the interest rate does deliver growth in the short run. | 经常削减利率确实在短期内带来增长。 |
| 37 | The trouble is, as inflation ratchets up, | 问题是,随着通货膨胀的上升, |
| 38 | the longer-term interest rates ratchets up. | 长期利率上升。 |
| 39 | All the interest rates get sucked up and you're sort of, | 所有的利率都被吸了,你有点, |
| 40 | you know, like running on a wheel, you know, trying to stand still. | 你知道,就像跑在车轮上, 你知道,试图站稳。 |
| 41 | Is it fair to say that the Fed has the single most powerful tool in the economy? | 美联储拥有经济中唯一最强大的工具,这是否公平? |
| 42 | Absolutely. | 当然 |
| 43 | Controlling the short-term interest rate is the most powerful | 控制短期利率是最强大的 |
| 44 | tool not available to Congress. | 用于国会的工具。 |
| 45 | Congress has a lot of tools, but they don't have the | 国会有很多工具,但他们没有 |
| 46 | surgical ability to change it in the way the Fed has. | 手术能力 改变它的方式 美联储。 |
| 47 | The Fed | 美联储 |
| 48 | has one job | 只有一个工作 |
| 49 | basically, which is to make sure prices stay stable. | 基本上,这就是确保价格保持稳定。 |
| 50 | I want to back up and mention that we didn't always live in this world. | 我想说,我们不是一直生活在这个世界。 |
| 51 | We used to have the dollar peg to gold, and a lot of people think that's wonderful. | 我们以前把美元与黄金挂钩,很多人认为这很好. |
| 52 | We should go back to it. | 我们应该回到它。 |
| 53 | It's not easy to do, is all I'll say. | 我只能说这不容易 |
| 54 | Like, | 喜欢, |
| 55 | many countries tried it and didn't, but we had that at some level until | 很多国家都尝试了,但没有, 但我们有 在某些层次,直到 |
| 56 | 1971, when Nixon went off gold, and he just cut the dollar loose. | 1971年,尼克松脱下金牌时,他刚把美元剪掉了. |
| 57 | And part of the reason we had the | 而部分原因 我们有 |
| 58 | inflation in the 1970s, which a lot of people think was because oil prices went up. | 20世纪70年代的通货膨胀,很多人认为这是因为油价上涨. |
| 59 | No, no, no. | 不,不,没有。 |
| 60 | It's because we didn't know what to do. | 因为我们不知道该怎么办 |
| 61 | We didn't have any vision of how to control inflation. | 我们对如何控制通货膨胀没有任何设想。 |
| 62 | It's a modern construct. | 这是现代建筑. |
| 63 | The whole idea of having an independent central banks is new, that | 拥有独立的中央银行是全新的想法 |
| 64 | people really didn't understand the importance of it, and it took, I'd say, 15 years before we really | 人们真的不明白它的重要性, 它花了15年的时间,我会说,我们真的 |
| 65 | figured it out, and it's worked really well. | 发现它, 它的工作非常良好。 |
| 66 | But the problem is that people, it's worked so well, people forget it's necessary. | 但问题是,人们,它的工作如此良好,人们忘记了它的必要性. |
| 67 | I have back up with a joke that | 我有一个笑话 |
| 68 | kind of captures this. | 那种捕捉到这一点。 |
| 69 | There's this man, you know, looking for a parking space because he wants to go to | 有个人,你知道的, 寻找一个停车位 因为他想去 |
| 70 | pray at his | 祈祷他 |
| 71 | church, and he | 还有他 |
| 72 | looks up and says, God, you know, if you'll just give me a parking space, | 抬头看,说,上帝,你知道, 如果你只是给我一个停车位, |
| 73 | I'll promise I'll start coming regularly. | 我保证我会开始经常来 |
| 74 | You know, I'll be more devout. | 你知道,我会更虔诚。 |
| 75 | I'll be better. | 我会好起来的。 |
| 76 | And suddenly a parking space opens up and he pulls right in, and then he looks up and says, | 突然一个停车位打开 然后他拉进来 然后抬头说 |
| 77 | just kidding, you know. | 开玩笑的,你知道的。 |
| 78 | And I think that's been like that with central bank independence and inflation, where it came down, and | 我认为中央银行的独立和通货膨胀 就是这样 |
| 79 | everybody, not just Trump, I would also say the progressives, people all over the world, have forgotten how we got there. | 不只是特朗普,我还要说, 进步者,全世界的人都忘记了我们是如何到达那里。 |
| 80 | And if you take away central bank independence, you're not going to get inflation overnight, by the way. | 顺便说一句,如果你夺走了中央银行的独立性, 你不可能在一夜之间得到通货膨胀。 |
| 81 | It takes time. | 这需要时间。 |
| 82 | But it certainly will contribute in a big way | 但它肯定会做出很大的贡献 |
| 83 | towards the next high inflation period we got. | 到下一个高通胀期 |
| 84 | What is the cautionary tale, | 什么是警告的故事, |
| 85 | I mean, you mentioned the inflation of the 70s, but of | 我的意思是,你提到通货膨胀 70年代,但 |
| 86 | the central banks succumbing to political | 中央银行屈服于政治 |
| 87 | aims. | 目标。 |
| 88 | So, for instance, the Burns and Nixon exams. | 例如伯恩斯和尼克松的考试 |
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