彭博社：极端高温为何让欧洲付出巨大代价 | 2026.9.4
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | The story of summer 2026. | 2026年夏的故事. |
| 0:05 | At least 16,000 people have suffered heat-related deaths in Europe. | 欧洲至少有16 000人因热死亡。 |
| 0:11 | This summer's record-breaking heat wave may have resulted in more than 2,700 deaths in England and Wales. | 今年夏天创纪录的热浪可能已经造成英格兰和威尔士超过2700人死亡. |
| 0:18 | 5,000 in Germany and thousands more in Spain and France. | 在德国5000人,在西班牙和法国还有数千人. |
| 0:22 | Older people are particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat. | 老年人特别容易受到热效应的影响。 |
| 0:24 | About one in five EU residents are over the age of 65. | 大约五分之一的欧盟居民超过65岁。 |
| 0:28 | Much of Europe just wasn't built for week after week of soaring temperatures. | 欧洲大部分地区 一周又一周的气温飙升 都没有建成 |
| 0:34 | Europe is a temperate continent. | 欧洲是一个温带大陆. |
| 0:36 | People perhaps don't realise that even a place as far south as Istanbul is on the same latitude as Chicago. | 人们也许没有意识到,即使是伊斯坦布尔以南的地方 也和芝加哥一样纬度。 |
| 0:43 | Homes, offices, even trains are built through a very different kind of climate, a much cooler one. | 住宅,办公室,甚至火车都是通过一种截然不同的气候建造的,更凉爽的气候. |
展开字幕全文（128 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The story of summer 2026. | 2026年夏的故事. |
| 2 | At least 16,000 people have suffered heat-related deaths in Europe. | 欧洲至少有16 000人因热死亡。 |
| 3 | This summer's record-breaking heat wave may have resulted in more than 2,700 deaths in England and Wales. | 今年夏天创纪录的热浪可能已经造成英格兰和威尔士超过2700人死亡. |
| 4 | 5,000 in Germany and thousands more in Spain and France. | 在德国5000人,在西班牙和法国还有数千人. |
| 5 | Older people are particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat. | 老年人特别容易受到热效应的影响。 |
| 6 | About one in five EU residents are over the age of 65. | 大约五分之一的欧盟居民超过65岁。 |
| 7 | Much of Europe just wasn't built for week after week of soaring temperatures. | 欧洲大部分地区 一周又一周的气温飙升 都没有建成 |
| 8 | Europe is a temperate continent. | 欧洲是一个温带大陆. |
| 9 | People perhaps don't realise that even a place as far south as Istanbul is on the same latitude as Chicago. | 人们也许没有意识到,即使是伊斯坦布尔以南的地方 也和芝加哥一样纬度。 |
| 10 | Homes, offices, even trains are built through a very different kind of climate, a much cooler one. | 住宅,办公室,甚至火车都是通过一种截然不同的气候建造的,更凉爽的气候. |
| 11 | Climate change is still on top of the global agenda. | 气候变化仍然是全球议程的首要问题。 |
| 12 | It's clear that the climate is changing, everybody can see that and we have to react accordingly. | 很明显,气候在变化,每个人都可以看到, 我们必须做出相应的反应。 |
| 13 | Emergency alerts are making climate change harder to ignore. | 紧急警报使气候变化更加难以忽视。 |
| 14 | What is that noise? | 那是什么声音? |
| 15 | I don't like when the government do this. | 我不喜欢政府这么做 |
| 16 | I'll tell you what, this summer is no joke. | 我告诉你,这个夏天不是玩笑 |
| 17 | Responding to the crisis will be expensive. | 应对危机代价高昂。 |
| 18 | The European Commission says EU member countries need to be spending about 80 billion a year to adapt to climate change | 欧盟委员会说欧盟成员国每年需要花费大约800亿美元来适应气候变化。 |
| 19 | between now and 2050. | 从现在到2050年 |
| 20 | That 80 billion dollars will touch everything from healthcare to food and ecosystems, | 这800亿美元将触及 从医疗保健到食物和生态系统的一切, |
| 21 | with infrastructure alone needing more than 33 billion dollars a year. | 仅基础设施每年就需要超过330亿美元。 |
| 22 | Europe as a relatively wealthy region should be able to adapt to these things, | 作为一个相对富裕的地区,欧洲应该能够适应这些东西, |
| 23 | but these are countries often that are going through a period of quite significant political turmoil. | 但这些国家经常经历相当严重的政治动荡时期。 |
| 24 | As summer ends, governments are left facing increasingly difficult choices with scant resources | 随着夏季的结束,政府面临越来越困难的选择,资源匮乏。 |
| 25 | and finding that money may prove just as difficult as finding the solutions. | 并且发现金钱可能与找到解决办法同样困难。 |
| 26 | Europe is the world's fastest warming continent, the jet stream patterns have altered | 欧洲是世界上最快的暖化大陆 喷气流模式已经改变 |
| 27 | and there's less snow cover, especially in the Alpine regions. | 雪盖较少,特别是在高山地区。 |
| 28 | It's warming about twice as fast as the global average. | 它的升温速度是全球平均水平的两倍左右. |
| 29 | Here's the difference in the globe's temperature versus the long-term average. | 以下是全球温度与长期平均值的差异。 |
| 30 | Europe has become even warmer, roughly 0.56 degrees Celsius per decade since the mid-90s. | 欧洲已经变得更加温暖,自90年代中期以来每十年约0.56摄氏度. |
| 31 | Arctic areas are warming at an even faster rate, adding to Europe's heat problem. | 北极地区变暖的速度更快,增加了欧洲的热量问题. |
| 32 | This year, 2026, has seen heat that has surpassed what is thought to be the worst heat-related event in Europe, | 今年,2026年的热量 已经超过了欧洲最糟糕的热量事件, |
| 33 | which happened in 2003. | 发生在2003年。 |
| 34 | 2003, I think, was really a watershed year in the mindsets of a lot of European policymakers, governments, | 2003年,我想,的确是一个分水岭年 许多欧洲决策者,政府, |
| 35 | in terms of what heat can really do. | 就热能做什么而言 |
| 36 | The most recent estimate is over 70,000 deaths linked to those heat events. | 最新的估计是,与这些热量事件有关的死亡人数超过70 000人。 |
| 37 | Europe as a whole has made some preparations, so the death rates have not been as high, | 整个欧洲已经做了一些准备, 所以死亡率没有那么高, |
| 38 | but certainly the amount of economic lost output has gone up relative to what it was in 2003. | 但是,与2003年相比,经济损失的产量无疑有所增加。 |
| 39 | So, let's look at what that lost economic output means. | 所以,让我们看看那失去的经济产出意味着什么。 |
| 40 | When you have a heat wave, there are some things that are really immediately obvious. | 当你有热浪时, 有一些事情是非常明显的。 |
| 41 | Schools close, people can't carry out certain types of labour, working outside, for example. | 学校关闭,人们不能进行某些类型的劳动,比如在外工作. |
| 42 | We've had sporting events cancelled, music events cancelled, it also affects travel. | 体育赛事取消,音乐赛事取消,这也影响了旅行. |
| 43 | Trains sometimes have to move more slowly because of the risk of buckling. | 火车有时因为有撞车的风险而不得不慢点行驶. |
| 44 | You get flights being cancelled, you're immediately losing productive hours from the economy. | 航班被取消,你马上会失去生产时间 |
| 45 | In many parts of the world, people deal with day-to-day heat by installing air conditioning. | 在世界许多地方,人们通过安装空调处理日常热量. |
| 46 | In the US, for example, there's lots of it. | 例如在美国,它有很多. |
| 47 | In Europe, it's harder to come by. | 在欧洲,它更难通过。 |
| 48 | There are a lot of offices that have air conditioning, supermarkets, some retail buildings as well, | 有很多办公室,有空调,超市, 一些零售大楼也, |
| 49 | but the real difference at the moment is that homes really, really don't tend to have it. | 但真正的区别是 家庭真的,真的没有它。 |
| 50 | But that's beginning to change. | 但是,这已经开始改变。 |
| 51 | The demand has been astronomical. | 需求一直以天文为主. |
| 52 | In the first week of the heat wave, we received 4,200 phone calls, | 在热浪的第一周, 我们收到了4200个电话, |
| 53 | around 1,100 emails. | 大约1,100封电子邮件。 |
| 54 | The demand throughout Europe has been enormous. | 整个欧洲的需求是巨大的。 |
| 55 | So the manufacturers essentially sold around three times the amount that they would be expecting to sell. | 因此,制造商基本上卖出大约是预期销量的三倍。 |
| 56 | The industry is getting bigger and bigger every year. | 工业规模逐年扩大. |
| 57 | In 2010, about 7% of French households had air conditioning. | 2010年,约7%的法国家庭拥有空调. |
| 58 | By 2020, that's risen to about 25%, and then really into this year, it started to accelerate again, | 到2020年, 上升至25%左右, 然后真正进入今年, 它开始再次加速, |
| 59 | and now we're at about 35%. | 而现在我们大约是35%。 |
| 60 | That compares to about 65% in Spain and about 20% in Germany. | 相比之下,西班牙约为65%,德国约为20%。 |
| 61 | All way below the US, where nearly everyone has it. | 在美国下面,几乎所有人都有 |
| 62 | The demand for cooling from hotter and longer summers can be seen in energy consumption as well. | 更热和更长的夏季对冷却的需求也可以从能源消耗中看出。 |
| 63 | Household usage has doubled between 2018 and 2024, and this can contribute to a negative feedback loop. | 2018年至2024年间,家庭使用量翻了一番,这可能会助长负面反馈循环. |
| 64 | Basically, you're using coolant to transfer that heat from inside the building to outside of the building. | 基本上,你用冷却剂把热量从大楼内部转移到大楼外部。 |
| 65 | You're really more likely than not using a fossil fuel to create that electricity, | 你真的比不使用化石燃料 来创造电力的可能性更大 |
| 66 | and using that electricity is exacerbating the problem as that carbon dioxide stays in the atmosphere for that long. | 由于二氧化碳在大气中长期存在,使用这种电力正在加剧问题。 |
| 67 | Global warming then puts even more stress on the whole system. | 然后,全球变暖对整个系统造成更大的压力。 |
| 68 | The heat itself is a problem for the utility sector because things like transformers and different parts of the grid | 热量本身是公用部门的问题 因为变压器和电网的不同部分 |
| 69 | really aren't built for that kind of heat. | 真的不是建造 那种热。 |
| 70 | And so you're basically forcing a lot of investment from the utility sector into new equipment. | 所以你基本上强迫公用事业部门投入大量新设备。 |
| 71 | Right now, there's a premium on all energy in Europe. | 现在,欧洲所有能源都受到重视。 |
| 72 | Europe's power situation is pretty precarious given what we've seen in the last two, three, four years | 过去两三年、三年、四年来,欧洲的实力状况相当不稳定 |
| 73 | with the Ukraine war and the current war in Iran. | 与乌克兰战争和伊朗目前的战争。 |
| 74 | There are also some synergies here, some ways in which renewables and AC could potentially work together. | 这里也有一些协同效应,一些可再生能源和空调可以合作的方式。 |
| 75 | So because we have, say, more solar on the grid than we used to, | 因此,因为我们有,比如, 更多的太阳能在电网 比我们过去, |
| 76 | there's an argument to say that that solar could be nicely matched with demand from air conditioning, | 有观点认为太阳能能与空调的需求相匹配 |
| 77 | but it really remains to be seen how exactly that would shake out in practice. | 但实际上还有待观察,这在实践中究竟会如何动摇。 |
| 78 | Energy efficiency is also critically important. | 能源效率也至关重要。 |
| 79 | Things like better pumps, better motors, according to the IEA, for example, | 例如,国际能源机构认为, |
| 80 | in 2025 efficiency reduced the amount of final demand in oil terms by about five and a half million barrels a day. | 2025年的效率使最终石油需求量每天减少约550万桶。 |
| 81 | So that's five and a half million barrels a day we didn't consume | 所以,这是500万桶 每天我们没有消耗 |
| 82 | because we were better at optimizing how we use our energy. | 因为我们更擅长优化 我们如何使用我们的能量。 |
| 83 | Meanwhile, extreme heat is affecting other electrical sources. | 同时,极端热量正在影响其他电源. |
| 84 | And we'll explain that and more in just a moment. | 我们稍后再解释 |
| 85 | I feel like a pawn in a big game of chess. | 感觉就像棋局里的棋子 |
| 86 | 在Bloomberg.com的Slash视频中, | |
| 87 | There's a lot of hydropower in Europe. | 欧洲水力发电量大. |
| 88 | That heat reduces the amount of flow going down those rivers. | 热量会减少流向河流的流量 |
| 89 | And that materially impacts the amount of power that can be generated by those hydropower facilities. | 这在物质上影响了这些水力发电设施能产生的电量。 |
| 90 | So that's one angle. | 这就是一个角度。 |
| 91 | And the second is nuclear power. | 第二是核能。 |
| 92 | You need a lot of water because you need a lot of cooling that goes on for a nuclear facility. | 你需要很多水 因为你需要很多冷却 用于核设施。 |
| 93 | As Europe's power sector struggles, dry rivers are impacting other sectors of its economy. | 随着欧洲电力部门的斗争,干河正在影响其经济的其他部门. |
| 94 | The German town of Kalb sits on the east bank of the Rhine River, | 德国城镇卡尔布坐落于莱茵河东岸, |
| 95 | one of the most important waterways in Europe for commercial transport. | 欧洲商业运输最重要的水道之一。 |
| 96 | This is water levels in the Rhine over an average of 25 years. | 这是莱茵河平均25年的水位. |
| 97 | During the 2018 heat wave, things looked like this. | 2018年热浪期间,情况是这样的. |
| 98 | And so far, the 2026 average is even lower. | 而到目前为止,2026年的平均水平甚至更低. |
| 99 | The Rhine is a central artery for the German economy. | 莱茵河是德国经济的中心动脉. |
| 100 | About 80% of all goods that are transported by ship are transported along the Rhine. | 约80%的船舶运输货物都是沿莱茵河运输的. |
| 101 | The fires that raged in France's Bordeaux region highlight another vulnerability, | 法国波尔多地区的大火 凸显出另一个弱点 |
| 102 | an insurance gap that can hinder recovery from devastating events. | 保险缺口,可能阻碍从毁灭性事件中恢复。 |
| 103 | Only 25% of economic losses caused by climate hazards in Europe have insurance protection. | 欧洲气候灾害造成的经济损失只有25%有保险保护。 |
| 104 | The remaining 75% are covered by businesses and increasingly by governments that have to backstop these losses. | 其余75%由企业承担,越来越多的政府必须支持这些损失。 |
| 105 | Most of the wildfires we've seen this summer and in previous years has affected countryside and rural areas. | 我们今年夏天和往年看到的大部分野火影响了农村和乡村地区. |
| 106 | Compare that with, say, California, which suffered something like $40 billion in insured losses in 2025. | 与此相比,比如加利福尼亚, 在2025年,它遭受了大约400亿美元的保险损失。 |
| 107 | Heat is more complicated, though. | 热是比较复杂的,虽然。 |
| 108 | You don't have physical assets often directly impacted quickly by a heat wave. | 你没有实物资产 经常受到热浪的直接影响 |
| 109 | Instead, the effects are more amorphous. | 相反,其影响是非形态性的。 |
| 110 | So as climate change hits Europe on multiple fronts, the worse it gets, the harder it is to mitigate. | 因此,随着气候变化在多个战线上冲击欧洲,气候变化越严重,就越难以缓解。 |
| 111 | People really don't understand how much of an economy on its own this is becoming. | 人们真的不明白 一个人的经济会变成什么样子 |
| 112 | You're taking more and more capital out of the economy that's normally spending it on productive activities | 你从通常用于生产活动的 经济中提取了越来越多的资本 |
| 113 | and kind of siphoning it off into this separate climate economy that is growing across many, many countries. | 并把它吸进这种不同的气候经济中, 在许多许多国家中正在增长。 |
| 114 | So it's not just the United States. | 所以不只是美国 |
| 115 | It's not just Europe. | 这不仅仅是欧洲。 |
| 116 | We're seeing it everywhere in the world. | 世间无处不见. |
| 117 | The siphoning of funds will take a toll. | 抽取资金将造成损失。 |
| 118 | Scenarios for productivity loss and increased energy consumption have been modelled. | 生产力损失和能源消耗增加的情景已经模拟。 |
| 119 | If the trend of very hot summers continues, the cost to some of Europe's largest economies could run into the hundreds of billions, | 如果非常炎热的夏季趋势继续下去,欧洲一些最大经济体的成本可能会达到数千亿美元, |
| 120 | while some northern countries could fare better. | 而一些北方国家可能更好。 |
| 121 | Clearly, the stress won't be shared evenly, and this could make it harder for the continent to come together on solutions. | 显然,压力不会平均分担, 这可能会使非洲大陆更难就解决办法走到一起。 |
| 122 | There's some underlying context here in terms of what's going on with the economies of European countries. | 关于欧洲各国经济的发展,这里有一些内在的背景. |
| 123 | We've seen more inflation since the war in Iran began. | 自从伊朗战争开始以来,我们已经看到更多的通货膨胀. |
| 124 | It causes kind of more political disaffection. | 这引起了某种政治上的不满。 |
| 125 | These are not economies that are really feeling super resilient right now, | 这些经济体现在不是真正有超强韧性的经济体, |
| 126 | even without the effects of heat waves that are amplified by climate change. | 即使没有热浪的影响 由气候变化放大。 |
| 127 | Deciding what to do about it and acting quickly and having the kind of political capital to act quickly | 决定如何应对,迅速采取行动,拥有迅速采取行动的政治资本 |
| 128 | is much more challenging now than maybe it would be in a more politically stable era. | 现在比在政治更稳定的时代更具挑战性。 |
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