彭博社：私募信贷正面临有史以来最大的考验 | 2026.5.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:02 | It's been a tough few months for the $1.8 trillion private credit market. | 对于1.8万亿的私人信贷市场来说,这几个月是艰难的. |
| 0:06 | The market is going through its biggest crisis of confidence in its history. | 市场正在经历历史上最大的信任危机。 |
| 0:13 | Private credit firms make loans directly to companies, giving them a way to borrow outside | 私人信贷公司直接向公司提供贷款,使它们有办法在外借款 |
| 0:18 | of banks and bank-led channels. | 银行和银行领导的渠道。 |
| 0:20 | They use money predominantly from institutional investors, but recently from some wealthy | 他们主要使用机构投资者的钱 但最近一些富人的钱 |
| 0:25 | retail investors too, and became major lenders to software companies, especially those backed | 并成为软件公司的主要贷款人,特别是那些得到支持的公司。 |
| 0:30 | by private equity firms, which by and large had seemed to be going pretty well. | 私人股权公司, 总的来说,这似乎 进展不错。 |
| 0:36 | Now you just have this existential risk in the form of AI that can change everything, | 现在你只是有这种存在风险 以AI的形式 可以改变一切, |
| 0:41 | and private credit is just at the centre of that now. | 而私人信贷只是现在的核心。 |
| 0:44 | Late last year, concerned retail investors started trying to pull their money out. | 去年末期,有关零售投资者开始试图拉出资金。 |
展开字幕全文（164 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | It's been a tough few months for the $1.8 trillion private credit market. | 对于1.8万亿的私人信贷市场来说,这几个月是艰难的. |
| 2 | The market is going through its biggest crisis of confidence in its history. | 市场正在经历历史上最大的信任危机。 |
| 3 | Private credit firms make loans directly to companies, giving them a way to borrow outside | 私人信贷公司直接向公司提供贷款,使它们有办法在外借款 |
| 4 | of banks and bank-led channels. | 银行和银行领导的渠道。 |
| 5 | They use money predominantly from institutional investors, but recently from some wealthy | 他们主要使用机构投资者的钱 但最近一些富人的钱 |
| 6 | retail investors too, and became major lenders to software companies, especially those backed | 并成为软件公司的主要贷款人,特别是那些得到支持的公司。 |
| 7 | by private equity firms, which by and large had seemed to be going pretty well. | 私人股权公司, 总的来说,这似乎 进展不错。 |
| 8 | Now you just have this existential risk in the form of AI that can change everything, | 现在你只是有这种存在风险 以AI的形式 可以改变一切, |
| 9 | and private credit is just at the centre of that now. | 而私人信贷只是现在的核心。 |
| 10 | Late last year, concerned retail investors started trying to pull their money out. | 去年末期,有关零售投资者开始试图拉出资金。 |
| 11 | Blue Owl allowed investors to take 15% of shares out of one of its private credit funds. | 蓝猫头鹰允许投资者从其私人信贷基金中提取15%的股份。 |
| 12 | It also sold assets to return capital to investors and reduce debt. | 它还出售资产,将资本归还投资者,减少债务。 |
| 13 | Others got more creative. | 其他人更有创意 |
| 14 | We did see some Blackstone employees basically pitching some of their own money to help | 我们确实看到一些黑石公司员工 基本上投了一些自己的钱来帮助 |
| 15 | meet redemption requests. | 满足赎罪要求。 |
| 16 | But this wasn't enough to calm investors. | 但这并不足以平息投资者的情绪. |
| 17 | Blue Owl's shares have fallen sharply since the start of the year. | 蓝色 自年初以来,猫头鹰的股份急剧下降. |
| 18 | Industry-wide concern, though, meant it was far from a unique case. | 但是,整个行业的关注意味着这远非一个独特的案例。 |
| 19 | People have been talking for years about how private credit has been untested, | 人们多年来一直在谈论 私人信贷是如何未经测试, |
| 20 | and this is the first time that they've really been under this amount of pressure. | 这是他们第一次真正承受这种压力。 |
| 21 | Some observers have drawn parallels with the lead-up to the 2008 financial crisis. | 一些观察员与2008年金融危机的筹备情况相似。 |
| 22 | It has the same trappings as subprime mortgage repackaging had. | 它的陷阱和次级抵押贷款重新包装一样 |
| 23 | While others say that fear is overblown, | 虽然其他人说恐惧是过度的, |
| 24 | especially since private credit firms don't use your bank deposits to make loans. | 特别是因为私人信贷公司不使用你的银行存款贷款。 |
| 25 | It's just really hard to assess because these loans are private. | 因为这些贷款是私人贷款 所以很难评估 |
| 26 | Private credit lenders will tell you that they made really smart investments. | 私人信用贷款人会告诉你,他们做了非常聪明的投资。 |
| 27 | But the concern is that what if they didn't? | 但问题是 如果他们没有呢? |
| 28 | Good news, everyone. | 好消息,每个人。 |
| 29 | Today, you're going to learn the connection between one of these, | 今天,你们要了解其中之一之间的联系, |
| 30 | lots of these, and even this. | 许多这些,甚至这个。 |
| 31 | Private credit. | 私人信贷。 |
| 32 | You can think of private credit as lending that's not arranged by banks. | 你可以把私人信贷看作是不是银行安排的贷款. |
| 33 | It could be an insurance company, or in many cases these days, | 它可能是一家保险公司, 或者在很多情况下这些天, |
| 34 | it could be a private credit fund. | 这可能是私人信贷基金。 |
| 35 | These deals are managed by some of the biggest names in private markets, | 这些交易由私人市场上的一些大名管理, |
| 36 | like Blackstone, Black Rock, Blue Owl, | 像黑石,黑岩,蓝猫头鹰, |
| 37 | and even some not named after colours. | 甚至有些不是以颜色命名的 |
| 38 | Greek gods, for instance. | 例如希腊神祇. |
| 39 | But what is it? | 但这是什么? |
| 40 | It's really a very broad umbrella term that refers to multiple forms of lending. | 这实际上是一个非常广泛的总括术语,指多种形式的贷款. |
| 41 | The type that's in the news most these days is what's called direct lending. | 现在新闻里最流行的就是所谓的直接贷款。 |
| 42 | And that's when basically these institutions lend money directly to companies. | 这时,这些机构基本上直接向公司贷款。 |
| 43 | If you're a company and you need to borrow money, you might go to a bank. | 如果你是公司,你需要借钱, 你可能会去银行。 |
| 44 | But if you're really, really big, a bank can't provide that much of a loan to a single company. | 但是如果你真的,真的很大, 银行不能提供这么多贷款给一家公司。 |
| 45 | So instead, you go to the debt capital markets, | 所以,你转而去 债务资本市场, |
| 46 | where a bank arranges a bond or loan and sells it on to multiple investors. | 银行安排债券或贷款并出售给多个投资者。 |
| 47 | For a fee, of course. | 当然是收费 |
| 48 | Private credit is a way to accomplish the same type of transaction, | 私人信贷是完成同类交易的一种方式, |
| 49 | but just directly between the borrower and the ultimate buyer of that debt, | 但只是直接在借款人和债务的最终买主之间, |
| 50 | cutting out all those like middle stages. | 切除所有像中间阶段。 |
| 51 | And it became central to the global financial system. | 它成为全球金融系统的核心。 |
| 52 | Back in 2015, I think this market was around $500 billion. | 2015年,我认为这个市场约为5000亿美元. |
| 53 | The overall assets under management for private credit is roughly $1.8 trillion as of today. | 截至今日,私人信贷管理的总资产约为1.8万亿美元。 |
| 54 | The $1.8 trillion market that most people talk about is just a subset of what some managers | 大部分人谈论的1.8万亿美元的市场 仅仅是一些经理的子集 |
| 55 | see as a total opportunity of as big as $40 trillion. | 视之为高达40万亿美元的总机会. |
| 56 | In other words, the current market's just the tip of the iceberg for private credit. | 换句话说,目前的市场只是私人信贷的冰山一角. |
| 57 | Far bigger opportunities lurk underneath. | 潜伏在下面的机会要大得多 |
| 58 | There's supply chain finance. | 有供应链金融. |
| 59 | There is consumer, auto loans, mortgages. | 有消费者、汽车贷款、抵押贷款。 |
| 60 | There is rail car financing. | 有铁路汽车融资。 |
| 61 | There is different kinds of trade financing, music royalties. | 有不同类型的贸易融资,音乐版税. |
| 62 | We did a story last year about them getting into | 去年我们做了一个故事 他们进入 |
| 63 | things that would have normally been financed by municipal bonds. | 通常由市政债券出资的 |
| 64 | A lot of lenders, especially places like Apollo, feel like the sky's the limit. | 很多放款人,特别是阿波罗这样的地方,都觉得天空是极限. |
| 65 | About two-thirds of the private debt market is in North America. | 约三分之二的私人债务市场位于北美. |
| 66 | Europe takes the next biggest slice, followed by Asia-Pacific and the rest of the world. | 欧洲取下一大片,其次是亚太和世界其他地区。 |
| 67 | You could say private credit has been around for decades, really. | 你可以说私人信贷已经 大约几十年了,真的。 |
| 68 | I think the 1980s is probably when a lot of this started. | 我认为20世纪80年代 可能是很多事情开始的时候 |
| 69 | But really, back then it looked nothing like it does today. | 但是,真的,在那时 它看起来不像今天。 |
| 70 | One event in particular didn't so much grease the wheels, | 特别是一个事件 并没有给车轮抹油 |
| 71 | has crashed the car and set fire to it. | 撞了车然后放火 |
| 72 | The 2008 financial crisis led to numerous regulations to try to keep that from happening again. | 2008年金融危机导致许多条例试图阻止这种情况再次发生。 |
| 73 | And one of the key things regulators essentially said | 监管者说的关键之一 |
| 74 | was they wanted banks to do less risky lending. | 他们希望银行做风险较小的贷款 |
| 75 | Regulators didn't want banks to make a lot of loans with their own money. | 监管者不希望银行用自己的钱进行大量贷款. |
| 76 | And that's what allowed private credit to sort of step in and start doing a lot of this stuff. | 这也是私人信贷能够 介入并开始做很多这类事情的原因。 |
| 77 | It can also help out when things get choppy in other debt markets. | 当其他债务市场出现混乱时,它也会有所帮助。 |
| 78 | For example, in 2022, the Federal Reserve had to start raising interest rates. | 例如,2022年,美联储不得不开始提高利率. |
| 79 | It really caused some problems in the hiled bond and leverage loan markets | 这真的给债券和贷款市场带来了一些问题 |
| 80 | and made those much harder to borrow from. | 更难借钱 |
| 81 | And private credit lenders really stepped up | 和私人信贷贷款人真的加强了 |
| 82 | and they saw it as a massive way to grow their market share. | 他们认为这是扩大市场份额的一大方法。 |
| 83 | Now, their loans can be more expensive than traditional financing, | 现在,他们的贷款可能比传统融资更昂贵, |
| 84 | but borrowers often accept that for speed, | 但借款人往往会接受 速度, |
| 85 | certainty and longer-term relationships with lenders. | 确定性和与放款人的长期关系。 |
| 86 | And software has been one of the biggest targets for direct lenders in recent years. | 而软件近年来一直是直接贷款人的最大目标之一. |
| 87 | A lot of these companies have very strong revenue growth, but they're not making money. | 其中许多公司收入增长非常强劲,但并没有赚钱. |
| 88 | That's something that banks have a hard time financing, | 这是银行很难融资的问题 |
| 89 | but private credit can do quite easily. | 但私人信贷可以很容易做到。 |
| 90 | 这是S&P 500。 | |
| 91 | And since 2022, firms like Aries, Apollo, Blackstone and Blue Owl | 从2022年起 阿里斯 阿波罗 黑石和蓝猫头鹰 |
| 92 | have seen their share prices generally outperform it | 他们的股价一般都超过 |
| 93 | as they expanded their credit strategies and grew their assets under management. | 扩大信贷战略,增加管理下的资产。 |
| 94 | Over that period, Blue Owl's AUM flew up from around $100 billion to more than $300 billion. | 在此期间,蓝猫头鹰的AUM从1000亿美元左右飞升至3000多亿美元. |
| 95 | But something else happened in those four years. | 但在这四年里发生了一些其他的事。 |
| 96 | OpenAI现价值8,520亿美元. | |
| 97 | Anthropix is making headlines almost on a weekly basis. | Anthropix几乎每周都做头条新闻。 |
| 98 | The rise of AI has completely abandoned the private credit market. | AI的崛起彻底放弃了私人信贷市场. |
| 99 | So now the spotlight is on how much exposure private credit firms have to software. | 所以现在的焦点是 私人信贷公司对软件有多少风险。 |
| 100 | And so retail investors in particular have been pulling their money. | 特别是零售投资者在拉钱 |
| 101 | Shares of KKR and Blue Owl were down as much as 10 percent. | KKR和蓝猫头鹰的股份下降了10%。 |
| 102 | Blue Owl is one of the most exposed. | 蓝猫头鹰是最暴露的 |
| 103 | And it's why investors are trying to figure out | 这也是为什么投资者 试图找出 |
| 104 | if those loans were underwritten with sound principles. | 如果这些贷款有健全的原则的话。 |
| 105 | Or based on overly optimistic growth trajectories | 或者基于过度乐观的增长轨迹 |
| 106 | that the AI revolution could now put in jeopardy. | AI革命现在可能陷入危险。 |
| 107 | Towards the end of 2025, Blue Owl co-CEO Mark Lipschultz was pretty confident. | 2025年底,蓝猫头鹰共同CEO马克·利普舒尔茨相当自信. |
| 108 | Credit quality is excellent in our book. | 在我们的书里,信用质量是非常好的。 |
| 109 | And that doesn't mean no defaults. | 这并不意味着没有默认。 |
| 110 | Everyone's going to have defaults now and then. | 每个人偶尔都会有缺省. |
| 111 | You just can't have many and you have to get good recoveries. | 你只是不能拥有很多, 你必须得到很好的恢复。 |
| 112 | And that's exactly what we do at Belalem, by the way. | 顺便说一句,这正是我们在贝拉伦做的。 |
| 113 | So do our peers and so do the banks. | 我们的同行和银行也一样 |
| 114 | In November, though, it called off a merger of two of its funds | 11月,它取消了两个基金合并 |
| 115 | amid scrutiny over potential investor losses. | 在对潜在投资者损失进行审查的过程中。 |
| 116 | It coincided with redemption requests, that is people asking for their money back, | 它与赎罪请求同时发生, 那就是人们要求他们的钱回来, |
| 117 | climbing sharply across the industry, including at Blackstone, Blue Owl and Apollo. | 尖锐地跨越行业,包括黑石,蓝猫头鹰和阿波罗. |
| 118 | There's really not a fund that's been spared over the last few months here. | 过去几个月来,这里真的没有一个基金可以幸免. |
| 119 | We've seen huge funds receive massive redemption requests | 我们看到巨资收到大量赎回请求 |
| 120 | that are unprecedented in the history of private credit markets. | 这在私人信贷市场的历史中是前所未有的。 |
| 121 | A lot of the firms that have made a big push into the retail market | 很多公司都大力推进零售市场 |
| 122 | have had to deal with these redemption requests in an amount that was unprecedented. | 不得不以前所未有的数额处理这些赎回请求。 |
| 123 | And to preserve the value of the funds, they've had to limit, in many cases, | 为了保持资金的价值 他们不得不限制 在许多情况下 |
| 124 | the amount of money that investors could take out. | 投资者可以拿出多少资金。 |
| 125 | In the first quarter, funds were enforcing caps | 第一季度,资金执行上限 |
| 126 | and denying billions of dollars of withdrawal requests, | 并拒绝数十亿美元的撤出请求, |
| 127 | predominantly from wealthy retail investors who'd sunk capital into special products | 主要来自富有的零售投资者,他们将资本沉入特殊产品中 |
| 128 | tailored for them by private credit firms. | 由私人信贷公司为其量身定制。 |
| 129 | In some cases, their unmet requests were tens of percentage points higher | 在某些情况下,其未得到满足的请求高出数十个百分点 |
| 130 | than the money actually allowed to be taken out. | 而不是被允许取出的钱 |
| 131 | This all comes years after heavy inflows from institutional investors and retail-focused funds, | 这都是在机构投资者和以零售为重点的资金大量流入多年之后发生的。 |
| 132 | much of that money going into software businesses that were seen as durable. | 大部分的钱都投入到软件企业中 被认为是持久的。 |
| 133 | Now, AI is starting to challenge that assumption. | 现在,大赦国际开始质疑这一假设。 |
| 134 | And all of this is harder to judge because the market is so opaque. | 而这一切更难判断,因为市场如此不透明。 |
| 135 | Some of the main drawbacks of private credit is there's much less transparency. | 私人信贷的一些主要缺点是透明度低得多. |
| 136 | Private credit are bespoke loans between sophisticated parties and it's all private. | 私人信贷是尖端当事人之间的贷款 而且是私人的 |
| 137 | Loans are not securities. | 贷款不是证券。 |
| 138 | And crucially, that privacy means they don't really trade, | 至关紧要的是 隐私意味着他们并不真正交易 |
| 139 | so there isn't a market deciding what they're worth. | 所以没有市场来决定它们的价值 |
| 140 | Skeptics have begun questioning the accuracy of private loan valuations, | 怀疑者开始质疑私人贷款估值的准确性, |
| 141 | particularly after a string of investments recently had their values slashed to zero, | 特别是最近一连串投资价值跌至零后 |
| 142 | with little to no warning. | 很少警告, |
| 143 | It follows the collapse of subprime auto lender Tricolor | 它跟随次级贷方Tricolor的崩溃 |
| 144 | and auto parts supplier First Brands last year. | 和汽车配件供应商 第一品牌去年。 |
| 145 | While only tangentially related to private credit, | 虽然与私人信贷关系不大, |
| 146 | their demise raised broader questions about underwriting | 它们的消亡引起了关于承销的更广泛的问题 |
| 147 | and hidden leverage across all credit markets. | 以及所有信贷市场的隐藏杠杆。 |
| 148 | Jamie Dimon has been sort of a vocal critic of the private credit market is how I would say it. | 杰米·迪蒙是私人信贷市场的批评者 我也会这么说 |
| 149 | JP摩根CEO是银行家之一 亏损与Tricolor有关 | |
| 150 | and he went full insect in his assessment. | 他的鉴定结果里,有一只昆虫 |
| 151 | I intend it goes up with things like that happening. | 我打算跟那样的事情一起发生 |
| 152 | I probably shouldn't say this, but when you see one cockroach, there's probably more. | 我可能不该这么说 但当你看到一只蟑螂时 可能会有更多 |
| 153 | It's a very visual image of hidden problems coming to the surface | 这是一个非常视觉的图像 隐藏的问题来到表面 |
| 154 | as cockroaches tend to do when lights go off. | 就像蟑螂在灯光熄灭时一样 |
| 155 | But the bigger point that he was making is there could be more problems | 但是,他提出的大问题 可能有更多的问题 |
| 156 | and this could be just the beginning and no one is really safe. | 这可能是刚刚开始 没有人真的安全。 |
| 157 | This is what led some observers to draw comparisons to what happened in 2008. | 因此,一些观察员对2008年的情况进行了比较。 |
| 158 | I think the counter argument to that is that the regulation following the 2008 financial crisis | 我认为与此相反的论点是,2008年金融危机之后的条例 |
| 159 | intentionally pushed risky lending off of bank balance sheets and instead ended up with investors. | 故意将风险贷款从银行资产负债表上推开,结果却投向投资者。 |
| 160 | And so they can afford to lose that. | 这样他们就能承受不起这种损失。 |
| 161 | They may not like to lose that, but they can afford to lose that. | 他们可能不想失去这个机会,但他们可以失去这个机会。 |
| 162 | We're not really seeing that sort of widespread distress just yet. | 我们还没有真正看到 那种普遍的痛苦 刚刚。 |
| 163 | But definitely, I think we can say that the best days for private credit are probably behind us | 但肯定的,我认为我们可以说, 最好的私人信用日子可能已经过去了 |
| 164 | and the next few quarters, years are going to be more challenging. | 接下来的几个季度, 年将更具有挑战性。 |
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