法里德观点：川普生育奖金能解决生育危机吗 | 2025.5.
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:01 | And now for the last look, amid the Trump administration's dizzying efforts to transform | 现在,最后看, 在特朗普政府令人头晕的变革努力中 |
| 0:06 | the country, one may have escaped your notice. | 这个国家,也许有人逃过了你的监视 |
| 0:10 | Here is Trump describing it in 2023. | 以下是特朗普在2023年对此的描述. |
| 0:13 | We will support baby boomers and we will support baby bonuses for a new baby boom. | 我们将支持婴儿成长者,我们将支持婴儿奖金用于新的婴儿成长。 |
| 0:21 | How does that sound? | 怎么样? |
| 0:22 | That sounds pretty good. | 听起来不错 |
| 0:24 | I want a baby boom. | 我要一个婴儿潮。 |
| 0:26 | The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively considering so-called | "纽约时报"报道称,特朗普政府正积极考虑所谓的. |
| 0:30 | pro-natalist policies, including a $5,000 baby bonus to mothers for each new birth. | 支持分娩的政策,包括每次新生儿向母亲发放5 000加元的婴儿奖金。 |
| 0:38 | There is a logic to it. | 这是一种逻辑。 |
展开字幕全文（70 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | And now for the last look, amid the Trump administration's dizzying efforts to transform | 现在,最后看, 在特朗普政府令人头晕的变革努力中 |
| 2 | the country, one may have escaped your notice. | 这个国家,也许有人逃过了你的监视 |
| 3 | Here is Trump describing it in 2023. | 以下是特朗普在2023年对此的描述. |
| 4 | We will support baby boomers and we will support baby bonuses for a new baby boom. | 我们将支持婴儿成长者,我们将支持婴儿奖金用于新的婴儿成长。 |
| 5 | How does that sound? | 怎么样? |
| 6 | That sounds pretty good. | 听起来不错 |
| 7 | I want a baby boom. | 我要一个婴儿潮。 |
| 8 | The New York Times reports that the Trump administration is actively considering so-called | "纽约时报"报道称,特朗普政府正积极考虑所谓的. |
| 9 | pro-natalist policies, including a $5,000 baby bonus to mothers for each new birth. | 支持分娩的政策,包括每次新生儿向母亲发放5 000加元的婴儿奖金。 |
| 10 | There is a logic to it. | 这是一种逻辑。 |
| 11 | America like much of the rich world has a problem. | 美国喜欢许多富裕世界 有个问题。 |
| 12 | America's fertility rate, the number of children the average woman has, is 1.62. | 美国的生育率,平均妇女生育的子女数是1.62。 |
| 13 | That's far less than the so-called replacement rate, the number of children it would take | 这远远低于所谓的更替率, 需要多少孩子 |
| 14 | to keep a nation's population stable, which is 2.1. | 保持一个国家的人口稳定,即2.1。 |
| 15 | Population decline means lower economic output. | 人口下降意味着经济产出下降。 |
| 16 | It also leads to more elderly people compared to working-age people, which means fewer able-bodied | 这也导致老年人多于工作年龄的人,这意味着体力更弱 |
| 17 | workers paying taxes and more old folks drawing retirement. | 付税的工人和退休的老人 |
| 18 | Some of these problems can be allayed by immigration. | 移民可以缓解其中一些问题。 |
| 19 | But too much immigration comes with backlash, as we've seen throughout the Western world. | 但是,太多的移民伴随着反弹,正如我们在整个西方世界所看到的那样. |
| 20 | America is far from alone in its fertility crisis. | 美国在生育危机中远非孤立。 |
| 21 | Every advanced economy in the OECD falls short of this mark, except for Israel, due in large | 经合组织的每一个发达经济体都未能达到这一标准,但以色列除外,因为 |
| 22 | part to its ultra-orthodox community, where the average woman has 6.4 children. | 部分属于其极端正统社区,一般妇女有6.4个孩子。 |
| 23 | The world's wealthiest man, Elon Musk, says this demographic crisis is, for most countries, | 世界上最富有的人,伊隆·穆斯克 说这个人口危机,对大多数国家来说, |
| 24 | the single biggest problem they need to solve. | 他们需要解决的最大问题 |
| 25 | He has fathered at least 13 children to do his part for humanity. | 他为人类至少生了13个孩子。 |
| 26 | Different countries have found different ways to try to solve the problem. | 不同国家已经找到不同的方法来试图解决问题. |
| 27 | Let's look at Hungary, a place the Trump administration loves. | 让我们看看匈牙利,一个特朗普政府喜欢的地方. |
| 28 | Hungary's Viktor Orbán-led government offers a sum that is roughly equivalent to five years | 匈牙利的Viktor Orbán领导的政府提供一笔大约相当于五年的资金。 |
| 29 | minimum wage for those who pledge to have a child. | 保证生孩子的人的最低工资。 |
| 30 | Once they have children, new parents can stay at home for up to three years with full pay. | 一旦有了孩子,新父母可以全薪在家呆上三年。 |
| 31 | Families who want to buy cars and homes are eligible for subsidies. | 想要购买汽车和住房的家庭有资格获得补贴。 |
| 32 | But as Eva Forder from the Central European University points out, many of these benefits | 但正如中欧大学的伊娃·福德指出,这些好处很多 |
| 33 | are not universal, they apply only to heterosexual married couples and some have income requirements. | 它们并不普遍,仅适用于异性婚姻夫妇,有些有收入要求。 |
| 34 | The results are mixed. | 结果好坏参半。 |
| 35 | Hungary did experience a boost in fertility, reaching a rate of 1.61 in 2021, but that | 匈牙利的生育率确实有所上升,2021年达到1.61,但 |
| 36 | number has sunk to 1.38 in 2024. | 数字在2024年降到了1.38。 |
| 37 | Consider another country, France. | 考虑另一个国家,法国。 |
| 38 | It has been pro-natalist for decades. | 几十年来,它一直是亲产主义者。 |
| 39 | The country's policies include extremely generous tax breaks for families, cash transfers | 国家的政策包括为家庭提供极其慷慨的减税、现金转移 |
| 40 | every month until a child turns three, 16 weeks of maternity leave and four weeks of | 每月直到子女年满3周、16周产假和4周 |
| 41 | paternity leave. | 育儿假。 |
| 42 | Since 2000, France has consistently spent around 3.5% of its GDP on family benefits, | 自2000年以来,法国一直将国内生产总值的3.5%用于家庭福利。 |
| 43 | making it the highest spender on this stuff in the OECD. | 让它成为经合组织中 最高支出者 |
| 44 | These policies have paid off. | 这些政策已经兑现。 |
| 45 | France has among the highest fertility rates in the European Union at 1.66 children per | 法国是欧洲联盟生育率最高的国家之一,为每名儿童1.66人。 |
| 46 | woman in 2023. | 女人在2023年。 |
| 47 | Demographers say that part of France's success is based on the consistency of its policy | 人口学家说,法国的部分成功在于政策的一致性. |
| 48 | over the years and the sheer amount of money devoted to it. | 这些年来, 和投入它的资金。 |
| 49 | But money alone doesn't solve the problem always. | 但光靠钱并不能解决问题 |
| 50 | In South Korea, the government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on pro-natalist policies, | 在韩国,政府花费了数千亿美元 用于支持新生儿的政策, |
| 51 | including monthly cash transfers and housing support to families. | 包括每月向家庭提供现金转移和住房支助。 |
| 52 | It's also increased parental leave. | 也增加了育儿假. |
| 53 | Nonetheless, its fertility rate was 0.7 children per woman in 2023, the lowest in the OECD. | 尽管如此,该国2023年的生育率为每名妇女0.7个子女,是经合组织最低的。 |
| 54 | This is a legitimate crisis. | 这是正当的危机。 |
| 55 | The country's workforce could shrink by half in the next 40 years. | 国家劳动力在今后40年中可能会减少一半。 |
| 56 | Why is this happening? | 为什么这样? |
| 57 | Well, there's a fascinating possibility flagged by Michel Goldberg in the New York Times. | 纽约时报的Michel Goldberg 标榜了一种迷人的可能性 |
| 58 | According to the Nobel-winning economist Claudia Goldin, the lowest fertility countries are | 根据诺贝尔得奖经济学家克劳迪娅·戈尔丁的说法,生育率最低的国家是: |
| 59 | ones like South Korea that modernize quickly. | 像韩国那样迅速实现现代化的国家 |
| 60 | In these countries, women gained access rapidly to advanced education and career opportunities, | 在这些国家,妇女迅速获得高等教育和职业机会, |
| 61 | but gender norms have still not caught up. | 但是,性别规范仍然没有赶上。 |
| 62 | Family structures remain patriarchal and mothers don't get much help with childcare from fathers. | 家庭结构仍然是父权制,母亲在育儿方面得不到父亲的很多帮助. |
| 63 | That may make them decide against having more children. | 这可能使他们决定不生育更多的孩子。 |
| 64 | One policy that does seem to make a difference in the fertility rate is paid parental leave. | 一种似乎对生育率有影响的政策是带薪育儿假。 |
| 65 | Maybe that's something the Trump administration should consider. | 也许这是川普政府应该考虑的 |
| 66 | The US is the only OECD country that does not offer a national maternity leave and it | 美国是唯一一个不提供国家产假的经合组织国家。 |
| 67 | spends very little on family support policies, among the least in the block. | 用于家庭支助政策的开支很少,在街区中最少。 |
| 68 | In other words, however desirable a baby boom may be, the US will need a lot more than $5,000 | 换句话说,无论婴儿潮多么理想,美国都需要5000美元以上。 |
| 69 | to pull it off. | 把它拉下来。 |
| 70 | Meanwhile, however Trump may feel about it, immigrants are filling the demographic gap. | 移民填补了人口差距。 |
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