探访Anthropic 价值9650亿美元的人工智能巨头 |
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:05 | I love this library. | 我喜欢这个图书馆 |
| 0:07 | It is, it is an absolutely beautiful library. | 它是一个绝对美丽的图书馆。 |
| 0:10 | Are you a big reader? | 你是大读者吗? |
| 0:11 | Um, you know, I mean, I read a lot in general. | 嗯,你知道,我的意思是,我读了很多 总的来说。 |
| 0:14 | I don't know that I've had that much time over the last year or so. | 我不知道我去年有这么多时间 |
| 0:19 | Dario Amadei is an unlikely AI celebrity. | 达里奥·阿马迪是一个不太可能的AI名人. |
| 0:23 | He's known for warning the world about the risks of artificial intelligence. | 他以警告世界人工智能的风险而闻名. |
| 0:27 | Now, his company is an AI front-runner valued at nearly a trillion dollars. | 现在,他的公司是一个AI前卫 价值近万亿美元。 |
| 0:33 | You're shipping so much, so fast, how are you doing that? | 你运输这么快,这么快,你怎么做到的? |
| 0:36 | We use Claude, you know, across the product development cycle | 我们用克劳德,你知道,整个产品开发周期 |
展开字幕全文(703 条)
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | I love this library. | 我喜欢这个图书馆 |
| 2 | It is, it is an absolutely beautiful library. | 它是一个绝对美丽的图书馆。 |
| 3 | Are you a big reader? | 你是大读者吗? |
| 4 | Um, you know, I mean, I read a lot in general. | 嗯,你知道,我的意思是,我读了很多 总的来说。 |
| 5 | I don't know that I've had that much time over the last year or so. | 我不知道我去年有这么多时间 |
| 6 | Dario Amadei is an unlikely AI celebrity. | 达里奥·阿马迪是一个不太可能的AI名人. |
| 7 | He's known for warning the world about the risks of artificial intelligence. | 他以警告世界人工智能的风险而闻名. |
| 8 | Now, his company is an AI front-runner valued at nearly a trillion dollars. | 现在,他的公司是一个AI前卫 价值近万亿美元。 |
| 9 | You're shipping so much, so fast, how are you doing that? | 你运输这么快,这么快,你怎么做到的? |
| 10 | We use Claude, you know, across the product development cycle | 我们用克劳德,你知道,整个产品开发周期 |
| 11 | and it allows us to release very fast. | 它让我们能很快释放出来 |
| 12 | Founded by a team of open AI defectors in 2021, | 由开放AI叛逃者团队于2021年成立, |
| 13 | Anthropic started out as an underdog lab. | Anthropic最初是作为一个弱者实验室. |
| 14 | Today, it's the breakout star, wiping billions in value off software stocks, | 今天,它是突破星, 擦去价值数十亿的软件股票, |
| 15 | going head-to-head with the Pentagon, | 与五角大楼正面对面, |
| 16 | and creating models allegedly powerful enough to burst through the walls of modern cybersecurity. | 创造出足以突破现代网络安全之墙的模型 |
| 17 | Some of the early companies that we gave this to said things like, | 一些早期的公司 我们给了这个 说的东西,比如, |
| 18 | this is a super weapon, please don't release this. | 这是一个超级武器, 请不要释放这个。 |
| 19 | Guiding Anthropic through this is a sibling duo, | 通过这个指导Anthropic是双胞胎 |
| 20 | 达里奥,在Visionary的兄弟, 和Daniela, 姐姐和操作员, | |
| 21 | who puts Dario's swirling cosmic thoughts into action. | 他把达里奥的宇宙思绪 化为现实 |
| 22 | Dario and I, we've always been really close since we were little, | 达里奥和我 我们从小就很亲密 |
| 23 | but I think we always really wanted to do something big together. | 但我想我们一直想一起做点大事 |
| 24 | Okay, but when you argue, who wins? | 好吧,但当你争论, 谁赢了? |
| 25 | No one. | 没有人。 |
| 26 | As the AI arms race escalates, | 随着AI军备竞赛升级, |
| 27 | the Ahmades are eager to establish themselves as the good guys. | 艾哈迈德人渴望成为好人 |
| 28 | But Anthropic's technology could have profound implications for how humanity works, | 但Anthropic的技术会对人类如何工作产生深远影响, |
| 29 | learns, thinks, even fights wars. | 学会,思考,甚至打仗。 |
| 30 | Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic. | Anthropic是一个意识形态的疯子。 |
| 31 | This is a debate about what the proper use of AI by the government is. | 这是一场关于政府正确使用AI的争论. |
| 32 | At some point, the models become very dangerous. | 在某些时候,模型变得非常危险. |
| 33 | You know, the bad guys will have it too, | 你知道,坏人也会有它, |
| 34 | and at that point we have to make sure that the good guys have an even better model. | 那时我们必须确保好人有更好的模式 |
| 35 | The name Anthropic actually comes from the Greek word for human, | Anthropic这个名字实际上来自于希腊语中对人类的称呼, |
| 36 | which speaks to their mission to build responsible AI for the long-term benefit of humanity. | 这说明了他们的使命,即为人类的长期利益建立负责任的大赦国际。 |
| 37 | Can you actually do that when you're building the most powerful technology in the world? | 当你建造世界上最强大的技术时, 你能做到这一点吗? |
| 38 | You are at the center of the AI universe right now. | 你现在是AI宇宙的中心 |
| 39 | What does that feel like? | 感觉怎么样? |
| 40 | The experience I've had for my whole career | 我一生的经历 |
| 41 | 当然,整个时间 在Anthropic | |
| 42 | is that there's this kind of smooth exponential. | 是这种光滑指数。 |
| 43 | And the experience of the smooth exponential is | 而平滑指数的经验是 |
| 44 | nothing's happening, nothing's happening, nothing's happening, | 什么都没有发生,什么都没有发生,什么都没有发生, |
| 45 | little things happen and then zoom, it goes crazy. | 小事情发生,然后放大, 它去疯狂。 |
| 46 | So, you know, I was watching this graph for a while and I said, | 所以,你知道,我看这个图表 一段时间,我说, |
| 47 | oh yeah, we'll probably become the, you know, the AI company | 哦,是的,我们可能 成为,你知道,AI公司 |
| 48 | with, you know, the most revenue and the most valuation sometime around this time | 与,你知道, 收入和估价最多 大约在这个时候 |
| 49 | and indeed it has happened. | 事情确实发生了。 |
| 50 | We're just keeping in mind all the things we usually keep in mind. | 我们只是要记住我们通常所铭记的一切。 |
| 51 | You know, how do we train good models? | 我们怎样训练好模特? |
| 52 | How do we put them in good products? | 我们怎么把它们放在好产品里? |
| 53 | How do we make sure that everything's safe? | 我们如何确保一切安全? |
| 54 | What were you like as a kid growing up in San Francisco? | 你小时候在旧金山长大的样子是什么? |
| 55 | I know your dad was a leather craftsman, your mom worked in libraries. | 我知道你爸爸是皮革匠 你妈妈在图书馆工作 |
| 56 | How did that shape you? | 你怎么样? |
| 57 | You know, the whole, you know, like first, you know, internet revolution was happening around me | 你知道,整个,你知道, 像,首先,你知道, 互联网革命正在我周围发生 |
| 58 | and I had absolutely no interest in it. | 我对此毫不感兴趣 |
| 59 | I was just interested in like doing math and like, you know, scrolling things. | 我只是喜欢做数学 喜欢,你知道,滚动的东西。 |
| 60 | I was interested in like, you know, understanding the universe. | 我对了解宇宙感兴趣 |
| 61 | I was interested in science fiction. | 我对科幻小说感兴趣 |
| 62 | I think I just felt a lot of curiosity about the world. | 我觉得我对这个世界很好奇 |
| 63 | What was it like growing up with Dario? | 和达里奥一起长大是什么感觉? |
| 64 | He was so smart. | 他很聪明 |
| 65 | He was taking, you know, calculus when he was, you know, in I think like middle school. | 他当时在接受微积分,就像中学一样 |
| 66 | He took math classes at UC Berkeley when he was in high school. | 他在高中时在UC伯克利上数学课. |
| 67 | I was actually more into reading and arts. | 我其实更喜欢阅读和艺术。 |
| 68 | So we were almost like complete complements in that way. | 因此,我们几乎像 完整的补充方式。 |
| 69 | Dario studied neuroscience before turning to AI at Baidu and later Google, | 达里奥在Baidu和后来的Google研究神经科学之前, |
| 70 | while Daniela started out as an early employee at Stripe. | 丹妮拉最初是史黛芬的员工 |
| 71 | They lived together in San Francisco along with Daniela's husband, Holden Karnofsky. | 他们与达尼埃拉的丈夫霍尔登·卡诺夫斯基一起住在旧金山. |
| 72 | Then in 2016, Dario joined the newly formed OpenAI, followed by Daniela in 2018. | 之后在2016年,达里奥加入新成立的OpenAI,随后在2018年加入达尼埃拉. |
| 73 | The company began as a nonprofit that promised a safe, more open path to super intelligence. | 公司一开始是一个非营利组织,承诺有一条安全,更开放的超级智能之路. |
| 74 | I think we need to think right now about how we want this deployed, | 我想我们现在需要考虑一下 我们要怎么部署这个 |
| 75 | how everyone gets the benefit from it, how we're going to govern it, | 如何每个人都从中得益 如何治理它, |
| 76 | how we're going to make it safe and sort of good for humanity. | 我们如何让它安全 并且对人类有益 |
| 77 | At OpenAI, Dario developed the concept of scaling laws, | 在OpenAI, 达里奥发展了缩放法律的概念, |
| 78 | predicting that large language models would improve simply by adding more data and computing power, | 预测大语言模型只会通过增加更多的数据和计算能力来改进, |
| 79 | even if the underlying algorithm stayed the same. | 即使基本算法保持不变 |
| 80 | At that point in time, I know it sounds crazy now looking back, | 那时候 我知道现在回头看听起来很疯狂 |
| 81 | but not a lot of people believed, hey, scale up is the way that these models are going to get smarter and better. | 但并不是很多人相信,嘿, 扩大是这些模型会变得更聪明和更好的方式。 |
| 82 | That was sort of an unusual countercultural scientific perspective | 这是一种不寻常的反文化科学视角 |
| 83 | that I think was really held by our founding research team. | 我认为我们创始研究团队真的持有。 |
| 84 | That approach helped supercharge OpenAI's models, paving the way for chat GPT. | 这种方法有助于对OpenAI的模型进行超充电,为聊天GPT铺平了道路. |
| 85 | But the Omides reportedly clashed with Altman over the company's direction and values. | 但据报道,奥米德斯人因公司的方向和价值与阿尔特曼发生冲突. |
| 86 | Altman has said, | 阿尔特曼说过, |
| 87 | For all the differences I have with Anthropic, I mostly trust them as a company. | 对于我和Anthropic的所有分歧, 我大多相信他们作为一个公司。 |
| 88 | Your decision to leave OpenAI has become Silicon Valley lore. | 你离开OpenAI的决定变成了硅谷的传说 |
| 89 | What did you disagree on? | 你不同意吗? |
| 90 | Look, I'm going to say it very simply. | 你看,我要说非常简单。 |
| 91 | There are many valid disagreements to be had on safety. | 在安全方面有许多有效的分歧。 |
| 92 | We certainly had some of those disagreements with them. | 我们确实同他们有一些分歧。 |
| 93 | But, you know, people, that alone is not sufficient to leave. | 但是,你知道,人, 仅此不足以离开。 |
| 94 | When you feel that you can't trust someone, | 当你觉得自己不能信任别人时 |
| 95 | When you feel that their values are not what they say they are, | 当你觉得他们的价值观不是他们所说的, |
| 96 | when you feel that they're not honest, | 当你觉得他们不诚实时 |
| 97 | that makes it very hard to, you know, to continue to work with the company, to continue to trust the company. | 很难继续和公司合作 继续信任公司 |
| 98 | And look, at the end of the day, why argue with someone when you don't have the same vision and you don't trust them? | 你看,在一天结束时,为什么与某人争论 当你没有相同的视觉,你不信任他们? |
| 99 | The way to resolve it is you go off and do your thing, they go off and do their thing. | 解决的方法是,你离开 做你的事情, 他们去做他们的事情。 |
| 100 | So this is Procida Park. | 这里是普罗西达公园 |
| 101 | When Dario and Daniela decided to leave OpenAI to start Anthropic, | 当达里奥和达尼埃拉决定离开OpenAI开始Anthropic时, |
| 102 | this is where the early team would get together. | 这是早期的团队会聚在一起的地方 |
| 103 | It was during the pandemic, so the story goes, | 这是在流行期间, 所以故事说, |
| 104 | and a bunch of early employees would come here, they'd pull up a chair on the grass, they'd have lunch, | 一群早期员工会来这里, 他们拉起椅子在草地上, 他们有午餐, |
| 105 | and they'd talk about what they were building. | 并谈论他们正在建造什么。 |
| 106 | When we started this company, there were seven co-founders, of which me and Daniela are two, | 我们创办这家公司时 有7个联合创始人 其中我和Daniela是两个 |
| 107 | and now, you know, we're basically the only company in the space that has all of its co-founders still here. | 而现在,你知道,我们基本上是唯一的公司 在太空中,有 它的所有联合创始人还在这里。 |
| 108 | You don't get to, you know, be a company of the size and scale that we are with that happening. | 你没有机会,你知道, 成为一个规模和规模的公司 我们正与发生。 |
| 109 | Like, that almost never happens. | 就像,这几乎永远不会发生。 |
| 110 | From the start, Anthropic pitched itself as the ultimate safety-conscious AI company. | 从一开始,Anthropic就投身于最终的安全意识AI公司. |
| 111 | Dario has published long essays with names like Machines of Loving Grace and The Adolescence of Technology | 达里奥发表长篇散文 名字包括爱的机器 Grace和科技的青少年 |
| 112 | musing on the miraculous potential of AI, as well as the worst-case scenarios. | 沉浸在AI的神奇潜力以及最坏的情景中 |
| 113 | Anthropic's chatbot, Claude, has been trained to follow a set of principles called a constitution, | Anthropic的聊天员Claude接受了训练 遵循一套叫做宪法的原则 |
| 114 | intended to keep it on the straight and narrow. | 打算让它保持直线和窄线 |
| 115 | Claude has a very distinct style and feel, a human name. | 克劳德有着非常鲜明的风格和感觉,一个人类的名字. |
| 116 | What are you trying to convey? | 你想传达什么? |
| 117 | I think when people interact with Claude versus, you know, other systems, | 我想当人们与克劳德互动时, 你知道,其他系统, |
| 118 | there is more of a feeling of, I like to describe it as professional warmth. | 更像是一种感觉,我想把它描述为专业的温暖。 |
| 119 | So the goal is not for it to be your best friend, but it's not for it to be sort of cold, rote, calculating. | 所以目标不是让它成为你最好的朋友, 也不是让它有点冷冷,旋转,计算。 |
| 120 | It should feel approachable, but distant, right? | 它应该感觉接近,但遥远,对不对? |
| 121 | Professional. | 专业的 |
| 122 | Anthropic说要教克劳德好 | |
| 123 | What is a good model? | 什么是个好模特儿? |
| 124 | What is a bad model? | 什么是坏模特儿? |
| 125 | You don't want a model that lies accidentally or intentionally, right? | 你不会想要一个不小心或故意说谎的模型吧? |
| 126 | Lying, we call hallucinations. | 说谎,我们称之为幻觉。 |
| 127 | It makes something up. | 虚构了东西。 |
| 128 | The models are just trained to predict the next word, so sometimes they don't know and they just invent something. | 这些模型只是被训练来预测下一个词,所以有时它们不知道,而只是发明一些东西. |
| 129 | Models sometimes, as we've shown in our research, can purposely try to deceive you. | 我们的研究显示,模特有时会故意欺骗你 |
| 130 | You have to make sure that doesn't happen in production models that we expose to customers. | 你必须保证这不会发生在 我们暴露给客户的生产模型中。 |
| 131 | And then there's a lot of work around harmlessness, just making sure the model is not accidentally producing, you know, | 还有很多关于无害的工作, 只是确保模型不会意外产生,你知道, |
| 132 | information that is wrong or harmful or could cause someone to do something bad. | 错误或有害的信息或可能导致某人做坏事的信息。 |
| 133 | Whose values are being put into Claude? | 克劳德正在接受谁的价值观? |
| 134 | Like, is there a universal good? | 喜欢,有一个普遍好? |
| 135 | There's so many religions, so many different beliefs. | 宗教众多,信仰各异. |
| 136 | Like, how do you even decide that? | 你怎么决定的? |
| 137 | So, of course, there's no universal standard for what makes something helpful or harmless, | 所以,当然,没有通用的标准 是什么使 帮助或无害, |
| 138 | but there are founding documents in human history, like the UN Declaration of Human Rights, | 但人类历史上也有创始文件,如《联合国人权宣言》, |
| 139 | that we can use to train Claude's character. | 我们可以用来训练克劳德的性格 |
| 140 | And I think, you know, interestingly on the religious front, we've actually started to have a lot of conversations with religious leaders | 我想,你知道,有趣的是, 在宗教方面, 我们实际上已经开始 有很多对话 与宗教领袖 |
| 141 | around how should we think about, you know, Claude the entity, | 我们该如何思考,你知道,克劳德的实体, |
| 142 | and how can we bake in some of the kind of core values that are consistent across religions, types of belief | 我们如何在各种宗教、信仰类型一致的核心价值观中烘烤 |
| 143 | that really just transcend, you know, a specific worldview, | 这真的超越了,你知道, 一个特定的世界观, |
| 144 | but that are really things that human beings have been grappling with for millennia. | 但这正是人类千百年来 一直在努力处理的事情 |
| 145 | Have you tried to give Claude a trait that didn't take, or was there any trait that emerged that surprised you? | 你想给Claude一个没有被接受的特质 还是有什么让你惊讶的特质? |
| 146 | I think in the early days, it's funny to look back on them now, the kind of early Claude's, Claude II era. | 我想在早期,现在回顾他们很有趣, 那种早期的克劳德,克劳德二世时代. |
| 147 | Sometimes Claude would be almost a little bit nanny-ish. | 有时候克劳德会有点像保姆 |
| 148 | Claude说 我很担心你 | |
| 149 | And you're like, Claude, I was asking for the weather, right? | 而你就像,克劳德, 我问天气,对不对? |
| 150 | It was something really benign. | 这是真正良性的东西。 |
| 151 | Thankfully, we didn't, you know, release most of the most egregious versions of those. | 谢天谢地,我们没有,你知道, 释放大多数最骇人听闻的版本。 |
| 152 | But I think it is, you know, it is, when you think about it, it's like tuning a dial. | 但我认为,你知道,这是, 当你想到它, 它就像调音拨号。 |
| 153 | And so our researchers have this very fine needle to thread in order to land at the center of that. | 所以我们的研究者们有一条非常精细的针线 以便降落在中心。 |
| 154 | 不管Anthropic和Claude一起做什么 看起来都可行 | |
| 155 | Anthropic's revenue has skyrocketed over the past year, making the company profitable for the first time. | 在过去一年中,Anthropic的收入猛增,使公司首次盈利. |
| 156 | That's largely thanks to the company's focus on more lucrative business tools. | 这主要归功于公司专注于更有利可图的商业工具. |
| 157 | Claude Code, a major leap that automated large chunks of software engineering. | Claude Code,一个大跃进,自动化了一大块软件工程. |
| 158 | And Claude Cowork, which gave that power to everyone else. | 还有克劳德·科沃克 把权力交给了其他人 |
| 159 | Now, early on, others focused on fun splashy consumer apps. | 现在,早期,其他人 专注于有趣的喷洒消费者应用。 |
| 160 | You made a bet on coding and enterprise. | 你打赌了编码和企业 |
| 161 | Why did you make that bet? | 你为什么打赌? |
| 162 | Was it a values decision or a business decision? | 这是价值决策还是商业决策? |
| 163 | Look, if you pick a business model that fundamentally conflicts with your values, you're going to have a hard time, right? | 你看,如果你选择一个商业模式 从根本上与你的价值观冲突, 你会有一个困难的时间,对不对? |
| 164 | Either you betray your own values or you become irrelevant. | 要么背叛自己的价值观 要么变得无关紧要 |
| 165 | And so when we thought about it, we said, look, you know, we've seen the world of social media, the consumer world. | 所以,当我们考虑这个问题的时候,我们说,你看,你知道,我们已经看到了社交媒体的世界,消费世界。 |
| 166 | It really seems to, you know, encourage engagement, even addiction. | 这似乎真的,你知道, 鼓励订婚,甚至成瘾。 |
| 167 | You know, the slop we've seen with AI video models. | 你知道,我们看到的slop 与AI视频模型。 |
| 168 | It's like what's going on? | 谓如是事. |
| 169 | Is it want to maximize the number of minutes that you're you're paying attention to? | 你想尽量多花几分钟时间吗? |
| 170 | Because that's the advertising revenue driven incentive. | 因为这是广告收入驱动的激励。 |
| 171 | Whereas if we look at enterprise, look, I mean, you know, we want to make these models useful to people. | 如果我们看企业,你看, 我的意思是,你知道, 我们想让这些模型对人们有用。 |
| 172 | We want to use AI to, you know, cure diseases that we couldn't cure before. | 我们想用人工智能来治疗我们以前无法治愈的疾病 |
| 173 | Right. | 对 |
| 174 | Well, that's working with biotech. | 这跟生物技术有关 |
| 175 | It's working with pharma. | 与药用效. |
| 176 | It's working with academic research groups. | 它与学术研究组合作. |
| 177 | All of those are enterprises. | 所有这些都是企业。 |
| 178 | Right. | 对 |
| 179 | We want to use AI to like, you know, to make energy cheaper and more efficient. | 我们想用人工智能来让能源更便宜更有效率 |
| 180 | That's that's all enterprise. | 这就是所有的企业。 |
| 181 | And so I think it serves us well to have this business model that largely aligns with our values. | 因此,我认为拥有这种基本上符合我们价值观的商业模式对我们很有帮助。 |
| 182 | Soon after Claude Cowork was released, two hundred eighty five billion dollars in market value vanished overnight. | Claude Cowork被释放后不久 市值二百八十五亿美元一夜之间消失了 |
| 183 | Traders called it the sasspocalypse. | 商人称其为"启示录". |
| 184 | This kind of white collar wipeout story in the software sector. | 在软件部门这种白领擦拭的故事. |
| 185 | Terrifying. | 吓死我了 |
| 186 | Some of those are down for nine days in a row. | 有些是连续九天下来的 |
| 187 | So clearly the tension is building. | 显然,紧张局势正在加剧。 |
| 188 | If AI continues improving at this pace, how much of traditional software gets replaced and how fast? | 如果AI以这样的速度继续进步,那么传统软件被替换多少,被替换的速度有多快? |
| 189 | I think with AI like the pie is getting bigger. | 我觉得和AI一样,馅饼越来越大。 |
| 190 | Right. | 对 |
| 191 | So the existing incumbents may be smaller in relative terms. | 因此,现有的任职者相对而言可能较小。 |
| 192 | Some of them may may go down in value. | 其中一些可能价值下降。 |
| 193 | Some of them may even may even go out of business if they don't if they don't adapt in the right way. | 其中一些人如果不以正确的方式适应,甚至可能失去业务。 |
| 194 | But like I would guess that the software industry gets larger, not smaller, although there will be some big losers. | 但就像我猜想的, 软件工业会变得更大, 而不是更小, 虽然会有一些大的失败者。 |
| 195 | Those who don't kind of see what's coming, who don't identify the most they have, they're going to have a really hard time. | 那些看不见即将到来的东西的人,没有辨别他们拥有的最多的东西,他们将会有一个真正的困难时期. |
| 196 | Anthropics recent growth spurt might not have happened without this man, Boris Cherny, the engineer behind Claude Code and Claude Cowork. | 人类学最近的成长可能不会发生 没有这个人,鲍里斯・切尔尼, 克劳德・科德和克劳德・科沃克的工程师。 |
| 197 | When Anthropic hired him in twenty twenty four, Cherny was living a very different life in rural Japan. | 24年安特罗皮克雇佣他时,切尔尼在日本农村生活非常不同. |
| 198 | There was a lot of farmers markets, like very slow. | 有许多农民市场,比如很慢。 |
| 199 | We were making miso. | 我们在制造迷幻剂 |
| 200 | That was sort of the big hobby. | 这算是个大爱好 |
| 201 | And I remember using the first AI chatbot that I'd ever used. | 我记得我用过第一个AI聊天机 |
| 202 | And it just took my breath away. | 这让我喘不过气来 |
| 203 | And I was just like, oh, my God, I have to I have to just be a part of this. | 而我只是喜欢,哦,我的上帝, 我必须只是我的一部分。 |
| 204 | And I'm also just such a big sci-fi reader. | 我也是一个科幻阅读者。 |
| 205 | And so I just know how bad this thing can go. | 所以我知道这玩意有多糟 |
| 206 | Like this technology is incredibly powerful. | 就像这种技术非常强大 |
| 207 | And so we move back. | 所以我们搬回去 |
| 208 | You created Claude Code. | 你创造了克劳德代码。 |
| 209 | You led the development of Claude Cowork. | 你领导了克劳德合作公司的发展 |
| 210 | What problem were you trying to solve? | 你想解决什么问题? |
| 211 | If you look at the coding products, they were all pretty simple. | 如果你看看编码产品, 它们都很简单。 |
| 212 | It was like it was sort of like, you know, like complete the word, complete the sentence. | 这就像,你知道, 像完成这个词,完成句子。 |
| 213 | That was the extent of AI encoding. | 这就是AI编码的范围。 |
| 214 | And we just wanted to make a way bigger bet. | 我们只是想做一个更大的赌注。 |
| 215 | And our bet was we think actually a coding agent can do all of it. | 我们的赌注是,我们认为一个编码代理可以做到所有这一切。 |
| 216 | A year and a half ago, you wrote the code by hand. | 一年半前,你用手写了密码 |
| 217 | And sometimes you press tab and it would autocomplete a line. | 有时你按下标签 它会自动完成一条线。 |
| 218 | Now I talk to my Claude and it writes the code. | 现在我跟我的克劳德谈谈,它写着代码。 |
| 219 | And then while it does that, I talk to the next bot and it writes some code. | 然后,当它这样做的时候,我跟下一个机器人说话, 它写了一些代码。 |
| 220 | And at any point, I have either, you know, like a few clods running and up to a few thousand clods running, doing things. | 任何时候,我也有,你知道的, 像几个块运行, 多达几千块运行,做事情。 |
| 221 | How much code is Claude writing internally for engineers here? | Claude内部给工程师写了多少代码? |
| 222 | It's writing almost all of it on my team. | 它几乎都写在我的团队。 |
| 223 | So for me personally, it's been writing a hundred percent of my code for at least six months. | 所以对于我个人来说,它已经写了至少六个月 百分之百的密码。 |
| 224 | The work of engineering has just completely changed. | 工程工作刚刚彻底改变. |
| 225 | I feel like I suddenly have superpowers. | 我觉得我突然有超能力 |
| 226 | I have like a jet pack and engineering has never been this fun. | 我有一个喷气机包 工程从来没有这么好玩。 |
| 227 | Can we give Claude a spin? | 我们可以给克劳德一个旋转? |
| 228 | Yeah, let's do this. | 是啊,让我们做到这一点。 |
| 229 | All right. | 好吧,我们走。 |
| 230 | So let's make like a little recipe app. | 让我们做一个小食谱应用。 |
| 231 | So make a recipe app. | 所以做一个食谱应用程序。 |
| 232 | What do you want it to do? | 你想怎样? |
| 233 | I would love it to suggest meals for the week. | 我很乐意建议这周的膳食 |
| 234 | So, you know, this is going to take maybe a few minutes. | 所以,你知道,这可能需要 几分钟。 |
| 235 | And let's just see if Claude builds this. | 让我们看看克劳德是否建造了这个。 |
| 236 | Oh, it gave me some options. | 哦,它给了我一些选择。 |
| 237 | Hmm, let's do... | 嗯,让我们做... |
| 238 | These look pretty tasty actually. | 这些看起来挺好吃的 |
| 239 | I could do a Greek chicken power bowl. | 我可以做一个希腊鸡力碗。 |
| 240 | When I click on a recipe, I want it to show me how to do it. | 当我点击一个食谱, 我希望它告诉我怎么做。 |
| 241 | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| 242 | Aww. | 哦,对了。 |
| 243 | I'm sure Claude will appreciate it. | 我相信克劳德会很感激的 |
| 244 | I always try to say thank you. | 我总是想说谢谢 |
| 245 | Yeah, I always try to be nice too. | 是啊,我总是试着好起来。 |
| 246 | I don't know. | 师曰. |
| 247 | A recipe app might not be the most mind-blowing demo of Anthropix technology, | 食谱应用软件可能不是Anthropix技术中最能让人心动的演示, |
| 248 | but what Claude code just did in minutes used to take hours or days. | 但克劳德的代码在几分钟内所做的 用了几个小时或几天。 |
| 249 | For some, that looks like a big opportunity. | 对有些人来说,这似乎是一个大机会。 |
| 250 | Are you like nervous about next week or is it like... | 你对下周很紧张还是... |
| 251 | What's next week? | 下周怎么样? |
| 252 | Your developer conference. | 你的开发者会议。 |
| 253 | Oh, yes. | 对 |
| 254 | Yes. | 对 |
| 255 | There's so many things happening every week. | 每周发生很多事 |
| 256 | Year over year, API volume is up nearly 17x on the cloud. | 年复一年,API卷在云上上升了近17x. |
| 257 | In the last 12 months, we shipped eight Frontier models to developers and users. | 在过去的12个月里,我们向开发者和用户运送了8个前沿模型. |
| 258 | Welcome to the second annual Code with Claude conference, | 欢迎和克劳德一起参加第二届年度守则会议 |
| 259 | where Claude super fans come hoping to get a glimpse of the future. | 克劳德的超级粉丝们希望 能看到未来 |
| 260 | We're having a lot of fun. | 我们玩得很开心 |
| 261 | There's a ton of adrenaline. | 肾上腺素有吨. |
| 262 | This is the first year we've grown faster than the exponential. | 这是第一年,我们发展得比指数快。 |
| 263 | In the first quarter of this year, we saw, if you were to annualize it, 80x growth per year. | 在今年第一季度,我们看到,如果你要每年增长80倍。 |
| 264 | I use Claude every day in the form of Claude code to do all sorts of stuff, not just write code. | 我每天都用克劳德的代码 来做各种事情 不只是写代码 |
| 265 | I write way more code than I did five years ago. | 我写的密码比我五年前还多 |
| 266 | I've got the confidence of, I don't know, a 22-year-old with BC money. | 我对一个22岁带BC钱的年轻人有信心 |
| 267 | I'm not 22. | 我不是22岁。 |
| 268 | My friend invited me, and it's amazing as someone that's not really technical. | 我的朋友邀请了我, 并且它是惊人的,作为一个不 真正技术。 |
| 269 | I think it's really interesting just to see what everyone's working on, what's out there. | 我想只是看看大家都在忙什么 外面有什么 真的很有趣 |
| 270 | I think the concerning part and the exciting part is, | 我认为有关的部分和令人兴奋的部分是, |
| 271 | hey, they can do things that we couldn't dream of and timelines we couldn't ever expect. | 嘿,他们可以做一些我们无法想象的事情 和我们无法预料的时间。 |
| 272 | But the kind of alternate side of that reality is you really have to be prepared | 但现实的另一面是 你真的必须做好准备 |
| 273 | because they will really be a thousand times more productive. | 因为他们的产量会提高一千倍 |
| 274 | All of this raises an obvious question. | 所有这些都提出了一个显而易见的问题。 |
| 275 | Will engineers be the first casualties of the AI they're building? | 工程师会是他们建造的AI的第一批伤亡者吗? |
| 276 | It's been revenge of the nerds for a while. | 这已经是书呆子们的复仇了 |
| 277 | Is that over? | 结束了吗? |
| 278 | I think we all become nerds. | 我想我们都成了书呆子 |
| 279 | But what happens to the actual nerds? | 但真正的书呆子怎么办? |
| 280 | I think the actual nerds, well, they have to figure it out. | 我认为真正的书呆子, 他们必须想出办法。 |
| 281 | I think for a lot of them, the skill that they had before is going to help them in the future | 我认为,对于很多人来说,他们之前的技能 将会在未来帮助他们 |
| 282 | because they sort of have a pretty big head start. | 因为他们有一个相当大的开始。 |
| 283 | They do a lot of things that are not coding. | 他们做了很多没有编码的事情。 |
| 284 | Engineers also have to talk to users. | 工程师还必须与用户交谈. |
| 285 | They have to plan. | 他们必须计划。 |
| 286 | They have to think about what's next. | 他们要考虑下一步 |
| 287 | So I think these are still parts of engineering that are going to stick around. | 因此,我认为这些仍然是工程的一部分, 这些部分会一直存在。 |
| 288 | Silicon Valley may have AI fever, but elsewhere, the mood is less upbeat. | 硅 谷地可能发烧,但其他地方的情绪不太乐观。 |
| 289 | 70% of Americans think AI will kill jobs, and nearly a third worry theirs will be one of them. | 70%的美国人认为AI会杀死工作,近三分之一的美国人担心会成为其中之一. |
| 290 | Dario Amadei has been outspoken about this issue, | 达里奥·阿马迪一直直言不讳 |
| 291 | and some of his predictions don't exactly sound reassuring. | 而他的一些预测 听起来并不完全令人放心 |
| 292 | I think we could have this very unusual combination of very fast GDP growth | 我认为我们可以有这种非常不寻常的组合 GDP增长非常快 |
| 293 | and high unemployment or at least underemployment or low-wage jobs, | 高失业率或至少就业不足或低工资工作, |
| 294 | a lot of low-wage jobs, high inequality. | 很多低工资工作,高度不平等。 |
| 295 | You've been really direct about job loss. | 你一直很直接 关于失业。 |
| 296 | AI could eliminate half of all entry-level white-collar jobs in the next one to five years. | 在今后一至五年内,大赦国际可以取消一半的起职白领工作。 |
| 297 | That was a year ago. | 这是一年前的事了。 |
| 298 | AI has moved incredibly fast. | AI的移动速度惊人快. |
| 299 | Is it still 50% or is it higher? | 还是50%还是更高? |
| 300 | I don't know exactly, but I'm still pretty concerned. | 我不知道,但我还是很担心 |
| 301 | I'm still the same order of concern. | 我仍然是同样的关注顺序。 |
| 302 | We are seeing right now that AI is making people more productive, but that's the usual hump. | 我们现在看到AI正在让人们更有生产力, 但这是通常的驼峰。 |
| 303 | You automate 90% of the job, great. | 你把90%的工作自动化,太好了。 |
| 304 | People are 10 times more productive in the other 10% because they're 10 times more leveraged, | 在另外10%的人的产量是十倍 因为他们的杠杆增加了十倍 |
| 305 | but eventually it gets close to 100%. | 但最终接近100%。 |
| 306 | Now, the sequel to that is, well, then you have to find something else for them to do. | 现在,这的续集是,嗯, 那么,你必须找到别的东西 让他们做。 |
| 307 | Right now, AI makes the software engineers more productive, | 现在,AI让软件工程师更有成效, |
| 308 | even though AI writes all the code or almost all the code. | 尽管AI写了所有的代码或者几乎所有的代码. |
| 309 | But we're already starting to see the beginning of like, you know, | 但我们已经开始看到 开始喜欢,你知道, |
| 310 | there may be some people that it's not making more productive, | 也许有些人认为它没有增加产量 |
| 311 | that it's better for the AI to just do the thing. | 由人工智能来做比较好 |
| 312 | How does that sit with you? | 这和你有什么关系? |
| 313 | It's very uncomfortable. | 这很不舒服。 |
| 314 | I think this is the reason why I chose to go to Anthropic, | 我想这就是我选择去安特罗皮克的原因 |
| 315 | and I think this is the reason that a lot of people here chose to go here, | 我认为这就是很多人选择来这里的原因 |
| 316 | is artificial intelligence is this force that is far bigger than we are, | 人工智能是这种力量 比我们大得多, |
| 317 | but here we can hopefully make it go a little bit better. | 但在这里,我们可以 希望它去一点点更好。 |
| 318 | Do you feel like it's your job to do something about that, | 你觉得你该做点什么吗? |
| 319 | or is that someone else's problem? | 还是别人的问题? |
| 320 | I think it's a thing that we have to talk about, we have to advocate for it. | 我认为,这是我们必须谈论的事情,我们必须倡导它。 |
| 321 | Ultimately, it's up to society to solve it. | 归根结底,要靠社会来解决. |
| 322 | This is bigger than one company. | 这比一家大 |
| 323 | There has been a lot of pushback on, you know, your, | 有很多回击,你知道,你的, |
| 324 | and I know you've said you're trying to warn people, | 我知道你说过你想警告别人 |
| 325 | but that, you know, Jensen Huang said you're conflating tasks with jobs. | 但是,你知道的, Jensen Huang 说你把任务和工作混为一谈。 |
| 326 | AI is creating jobs. | 大赦国际正在创造就业机会。 |
| 327 | Anybody who is saying that AI is wiping out jobs is scaring people. | 任何人说人工智能正在清除 工作是吓人。 |
| 328 | Other folks have said this, you know, it's sort of doom marketing. | 其他人说,你知道, 这是某种末日营销。 |
| 329 | That benefits Anthropic. | 这对雅典人有好处。 |
| 330 | So I want to be really clear and push back hard against this. | 所以我想说得很清楚, 并强烈反对。 |
| 331 | In every interview, I talk about the possible ways to address these risks, | 在每次采访中,我都谈到应对这些风险的可能方法, |
| 332 | from tax and macroeconomic policy to what the new jobs are. | 从税收和宏观经济政策到新的工作。 |
| 333 | In the adolescence of technology, I have like five pages | 在科技的青春期,我大概有五页 |
| 334 | where I lay out the difference between tasks and jobs, | 在那里我阐述了任务与工作之间的区别, |
| 335 | why this time is different than other times. | 为什么这一次是不同的时间。 |
| 336 | But social media, which I detest, which I detest as a category, | 但社交媒体,我讨厌它,我讨厌它作为一个类别, |
| 337 | people have these three-second clips from, you know, from a year ago. | 人们有这三秒钟的剪辑 从,你知道,一年前。 |
| 338 | I've written much more carefully about these things where I talk about the risks. | 我更仔细地写了这些东西 在那里我谈到风险。 |
| 339 | So these are, the idea that this is cheap marketing is itself cheap marketing. | 这些是,这种廉价营销的想法 本身就是廉价营销。 |
| 340 | I think it's part of the disease of Silicon Valley. | 以为硅谷之病也. |
| 341 | It's been caught up in this social media world of three seconds. | 被这个社交媒体三秒世界所夹击. |
| 342 | And so my message is just definitely not doom is coming. | 所以我的讯息是绝对不会降临 |
| 343 | My message is like, this is something, you know, that we should see coming, | 我的信息是,这是的东西, 你知道,我们应该看到, |
| 344 | that we're worried about, and that we need to actually respond to positively. | 我们很担心,我们需要 做出积极的反应。 |
| 345 | Beyond the software industry, the potential impact of AI on jobs seems harder to predict. | 除了软件行业之外,AI对工作的潜在影响似乎更难预测. |
| 346 | Anthropic has published a paper estimating which fields could make the most use of AI in the near future. | Anthropic发表了一篇论文,估计哪些领域可以在不久的将来充分利用AI. |
| 347 | If its predictions are right, management, finance, and legal jobs could soon look very different. | 如果预测是正确的,管理、财政和法律工作很快就会变得非常不同。 |
| 348 | Which jobs go away? | 哪份工作没了? |
| 349 | Who gets replaced? | 谁被替换了? |
| 350 | And what new jobs are created? | 创造了什么新的工作? |
| 351 | So no one knows for sure because, you know, the economy is unpredictable. | 所以没有人知道,因为,你知道, 经济是不可预测的。 |
| 352 | The thing that we have going for us here is the pie is going to expand a lot. | 我们要做的是 派会扩大很多 |
| 353 | And so because the pie is going to expand a lot, there are probably going to be places where people can go. | 因此,由于馅饼会扩大很多, 很可能会有人们可以去的地方。 |
| 354 | It's just a matter of finding them fast enough. | 这只是一个问题 找到他们足够快。 |
| 355 | So play this out for me a little bit. | 帮我弹一下 |
| 356 | You know, you wake up in five years. | 你知道,你醒来 在五年。 |
| 357 | You know, what does this country look like? | 这个国家是什么样子的? |
| 358 | What are those people doing? | 这些人在干什么? |
| 359 | Because if there's that much unemployment, is that not how revolutions start? | 因为如果有这么多的失业,那不是革命是如何开始的吗? |
| 360 | Yeah, no, this is the outcome we want to prevent. | 是啊,不,这是我们想要防止的结果。 |
| 361 | This is absolutely the outcome we want to prevent. | 这是我们要防止的结果。 |
| 362 | I think there's a few places. | 我想这里有几个地方 |
| 363 | None of them are guaranteed. | 他们都得不到保证。 |
| 364 | We're not sure. | 我们不确定。 |
| 365 | But there's the physical world. | 但有有形界. |
| 366 | We need a lot of more people to make, build, manufacture things in the physical world. | 我们需要更多的人来制造、建造、制造物质。 |
| 367 | Anything that's human centered. | 任何以人类为中心的东西 |
| 368 | I think that's going to be a big deal, right? | 我觉得那会是一个大问题,对不对? |
| 369 | People or at least some people want to talk to humans. | 人们或者至少有些人想和人类交谈. |
| 370 | So these kind of human relationship driven jobs, like I think those are going to be important. | 因此,这种人际关系驱动的工作, 就像我认为这些会是重要的。 |
| 371 | And I think there will be some effort by the humans to kind of direct the AIs, right? | 我想人类会努力指挥AI,对吧? |
| 372 | At some level, it has to be in line with someone's values and someone's intentions. | 在某种程度上,它必须符合某人的价值观和某人的意图. |
| 373 | And so I think there's going to be some role there, although I don't know how thin versus how thick it will be. | 所以我觉得那里会有一些角色, 虽然我不知道它会有多薄和多厚。 |
| 374 | I think I feel a little bit more hopeful that humans will continue to find ways to leverage AI, | 我觉得我更希望 人类会继续想办法利用AI |
| 375 | to be productive, to do the parts of the work that are meaningful to us that only humans can do. | 做那些对我们有意义的工作 只有人类才能做 |
| 376 | I think the human to human interaction will never fully go away. | 我认为人与人的互动永远不会完全消失。 |
| 377 | The example I often reach for is what will happen in medicine. | 我经常看到的例子是医学中会发生什么。 |
| 378 | Today, we hire doctors who are expert diagnosticians. | 今天,我们雇用了专家诊断医生。 |
| 379 | I think AI is going to soon be pretty good at telling you what the suite of options of things that are wrong with you and what tests to run. | 我想AI很快就会很擅长告诉你 你的问题是什么选择 是什么测试 |
| 380 | And you won't need a doctor to do that. | 而且你不需要医生来做到这一点。 |
| 381 | But an AI can't physically examine you and say, hey, does it hurt when I press here? | 但人工智能不能检查你的身体 并说,嘿,它伤害 当我按这里? |
| 382 | They can't have a bedside manner with you that says, like, tell me how you're feeling about this. | 他们不能对你说的床边话 告诉我你的感受 |
| 383 | How are you coping with going through this process? | 你怎么应付这个过程? |
| 384 | And I think we're going to pivot something like medicine to be much more focused on the interpersonal | 我认为我们要把药物之类的东西 放在人际关系上 |
| 385 | because the diagnostic tools are going to become much better. | 因为诊断工具会变得更好 |
| 386 | But the interpersonal human part, that's not going to change. | 但人与人之间的部分,是不会改变的. |
| 387 | Explain this to me. | 跟我解释一下 |
| 388 | Daniella runs day to day operations. | 丹尼尔拉每天做手术 |
| 389 | All the leadership team reports to you. | 所有领导小组都向你们报告 |
| 390 | No one reports to you. | 没有人向你报告。 |
| 391 | That sounds like a pretty sweet job. | 听起来不错 |
| 392 | It's incredibly freeing. | 这是令人难以置信的自由。 |
| 393 | It lets me do all the things that I do much more easily than I would otherwise. | 它让我做所有的事情,我比本来想做的事容易得多。 |
| 394 | And she does all the work? | 她做所有的工作吗? |
| 395 | Is that what you're saying? | 你是这么说的吗? |
| 396 | If you had to go through the things I had to go through during DOW or no. | 如果你必须经历 在DOW期间我必须经历的事情 或者没有。 |
| 397 | The Omidais hope AI can have a utopian influence on society. | 奥米代斯人希望AI能够对社会产生乌托邦式的影响. |
| 398 | But there's no denying the technology's destructive and dystopian potential. | 但不可否认的是,该技术具有破坏力和底栖潜力. |
| 399 | Anthropic is at the center of a technological arms race with powerful governments vying for control. | 炭疽病是技术军备竞赛的中心,有强大的政府争夺控制权。 |
| 400 | Dario has charged head on into this arena. | 达里奥已经登场了 |
| 401 | He's not afraid to blast his competitors. | 他不怕爆他的对手 |
| 402 | And then I think there are some players who, you know, who are yoloing, who pull the wrist dial too far. | 然后我想有些玩家, 你知道,谁是优柔寡断, 谁拉手腕拨得太远。 |
| 403 | And I'm very concerned. | 我很担心 |
| 404 | Who is yoloing? | 尤罗宁是谁? |
| 405 | That's a question I'm not going to answer. | 问曰不答. |
| 406 | Even after we've signed more partnerships, I'm sure they wish we didn't say these things. | 即使我们签了更多的伙伴关系,我相信他们希望我们没有说这些话. |
| 407 | But these things are what I believe. | 但我相信这些 |
| 408 | And so, you know, look, we're all adults here. | 所以,你知道,你看, 我们都是成年人在这里。 |
| 409 | We can work together on one thing while disagreeing about another thing. | 我们可以在一件事上合作,同时不同意另一件事。 |
| 410 | Omidais' statements about geopolitics date back to his days at Caltech. | 奥米代斯关于地缘政治的言论可以追溯到他在加州理工学院的日子. |
| 411 | As a sophomore physics student, he developed a reputation as an anti-war advocate who believed scientists shouldn't sit in ivory towers. | 作为大二物理学生,他发展了反战倡导者的声誉,认为科学家不应该坐在象牙塔里. |
| 412 | It's a worldview that would later define Anthropic's position on the future of war. | 它是一种世界观,日后会定义安特罗皮克对于战争未来的立场. |
| 413 | You've had a longstanding anti-war stance, and yet you were one of the first A.I. | 你有着长期的反战立场, 但你是第一个人工智能之一。 |
| 414 | companies to sign a contract with the Department of Defense to operate on classified networks. | 公司与国防部签订合同 在机密网络上运作 |
| 415 | These are the networks that the U.S. uses to fight wars. | 这些是美国用来打仗的网络. |
| 416 | Explain that. | 解释一下 |
| 417 | Look, I mean, the world changes. | 你看,我的意思是,世界的变化。 |
| 418 | Like, you know, my view of this technology, you know, when I see Russia invading Ukraine, | 就像,你知道,我的观点 这种技术,你知道, 当我看到俄罗斯入侵乌克兰, |
| 419 | worries me that we have a kind of resurgent authoritarian bloc, that they're very aggressive and that we need to defend ourselves. | 烦恼我,我们有一种死灰复燃的专制集团,他们非常侵略,我们需要自卫. |
| 420 | You know, I may not agree with every policy of either administration, but, you know, that's why we've generally been supportive of this. | 你知道,我可能不同意任何行政部门的每一项政策, 但是,你知道,这就是为什么我们 普遍支持这一点。 |
| 421 | You've been working with Palantir since 2024. | 你从2024年开始和帕兰蒂尔合作. |
| 422 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 423 | You know, their technology is used by ICE, police departments in Gaza. | 你知道,他们的技术被ICE,加沙的警察部门使用. |
| 424 | Is Claude being used for surveillance in other ways? | Claude被用其他方式监视了吗? |
| 425 | We don't work with ICE either through Palantir or anyone else. | 我们不与ICE合作 无论是通过Palantir还是其他人。 |
| 426 | We don't work with CBP. | 我们不与CBP合作. |
| 427 | I don't believe we work in Gaza. | 我不认为我们在加沙工作。 |
| 428 | We're very careful about, you know, scoping our engagements to things that we believe in. | 我们非常小心,你知道的, 将我们的约定范围 与我们相信的事情。 |
| 429 | 2025年,Anthropic与OpenAI,XAI和Google一起获得了与五角大楼的2亿美元合同. | |
| 430 | Anthropic将其描绘成成为领先的A.I. | |
| 431 | vendor for the government. | 政府供应商。 |
| 432 | Claude was reportedly used by the U.S. military in the operation to seize Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. | 据报道,克劳德在行动中被美国军方用来夺取委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗. |
| 433 | Weeks later, everything started to unravel. | 几周后,一切都开始瓦解。 |
| 434 | We bring you breaking news from Anthropic. | 我们从Anthropic给你带来了突发新闻 |
| 435 | The Department of Defense demand that Anthropic allow full use of its A.I. | 国防部要求Anthropic允许充分利用其A.I. |
| 436 | technology without guardrails. | 没有护栏的技术。 |
| 437 | Anthropic drew red lines, refusing to let Claude be used for mass surveillance and autonomous weapons, putting the company on a collision course with the Pentagon. | 安特罗皮克画了红线,拒绝让克劳德用于大规模监视和自主武器,使公司与五角大楼相撞. |
| 438 | The tech giant facing a deadline today to accept conditions or be blacklisted. | 技术巨头今天面临着接受条件或被列入黑名单的最后期限. |
| 439 | Does a commercial entity have the right to determine how their products are used by the military? | 商业实体是否有权确定军方如何使用其产品? |
| 440 | Lawsuits were filed, and Anthropic was banned from the Pentagon, underscored by strong words from President Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. | 法律诉讼被提起,安特罗皮克被禁止进入五角大楼,特朗普总统和国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯的强硬言论强调了这一点. |
| 441 | Anthropic is run by an ideological lunatic who shouldn't have a sole decision-making over what we do. | Anthropic是由一个意识形态的疯子经营的,他不应该对我们的工作有唯一的决策权. |
| 442 | Do you mind being called an ideological lunatic or a bunch of left-wing nutjobs? | 你介意被称为一个意识形态的疯子还是一群左翼的疯子吗? |
| 443 | You know, I've been called worse things than that all the time. | 你知道,我一直被称作 比那更糟糕的事情。 |
| 444 | What does winning this fight actually look like? | 赢得这场比赛是什么样子的? |
| 445 | I won't even call it a fight. | 我甚至不会称它为战斗。 |
| 446 | This is more a debate about what the proper use of A.I. | 这更是关于人工智能的正确用途的辩论。 |
| 447 | by the government is. | 由政府决定 |
| 448 | 一个A. I. | |
| 449 | is an emerging new technology. | 是一种新兴的新技术。 |
| 450 | We don't understand the ways in which it's reliable or unreliable. | 我们不明白它可靠或不可靠的方式. |
| 451 | We don't understand the ways in which it promotes our values or undermines our values. | 我们不明白它是如何促进我们的价值观或破坏我们的价值观的。 |
| 452 | And so one of the things that I thought was important was to establish a precedent on some of the use cases we think are good, | 所以我认为很重要的事情之一 就是为一些我们觉得好的使用案例 开创一个先例 |
| 453 | which frankly is most of them, and some of the use cases that we're concerned about. | 坦白地说,这是他们的大部分, 和一些使用案例 我们所担心的。 |
| 454 | A U.S. official has said, with the help of LLMs, the U.S. military has gone from being able to hit 1,000 targets a day to 5,000 targets a day. | 一名美国官员说,在LLMs的帮助下,美国军方从每天能够击中1000个目标到每天5000个目标. |
| 455 | That means Claude can help kill more people more quickly. | 这意味着克劳德可以帮助更快地杀死更多的人. |
| 456 | Are you comfortable with that? | 你满意吗? |
| 457 | Basically, you're asking, like, you know, do you believe in this country, right? | 基本上,你问,喜欢,你知道, 你相信这个国家,对不对? |
| 458 | Do you want this country to be a more powerful actor rather than a less powerful actor on the world stage? | 你想让这个国家成为世界舞台上更强大的演员而不是更强大的演员吗? |
| 459 | I do. | 当然 |
| 460 | I'm a patriot. | 我是爱国者 |
| 461 | It's not up to me. | 不由我决定. |
| 462 | If we provide a technology, it's not up to us to say, | 如果我们提供一种技术, 我们不应该说, |
| 463 | you can do this military operation and you can't do that military operation. | 你可以做这个军事行动 你不能做那个军事行动 |
| 464 | Now, I might privately believe that this military operation makes sense and that military operation is a bad idea, | 现在,我可能私下认为,这次军事行动是有道理的,而军事行动是个坏主意, |
| 465 | but we're not going to deny the technology. | 但我们不会否认技术 |
| 466 | You basically have to, you know, you have to leave policy in the hands of the military decision makers. | 你基本上必须,你知道, 你必须离开政策 在军事决策者的手中。 |
| 467 | Bloomberg has reported that Claude is being used by the U.S. military in the war in Iran to do AI-assisted targeting via a platform made by Palantir Maven Smart System. | 彭博社报道,克劳德正被美国军方在伊朗战争中用来通过Palantir Maven Smart System公司制造的平台进行AI辅助瞄准. |
| 468 | In February, a U.S. missile reportedly hit a girls' school in Iran, killing more than 150 people, most of them children. | 2月,据报道一枚美国导弹击中伊朗的一所女子学校,造成150多人死亡,其中大多数是儿童. |
| 469 | Did Claude play a role in that strike? | 克劳德在那次罢工中扮演过角色吗? |
| 470 | We don't know exactly how, you know, these models were used. | 我们不知道这些模型是如何使用的。 |
| 471 | You know, obviously, like, you know, these things that, you know, mistakes that happen in warfare are really, really terrible. | 你知道,很明显,就像,你知道, 这些事情,你知道, 在战争中发生的错误 是真正,真的很可怕。 |
| 472 | Like, this is a really terrible thing to happen. | 就像,这是非常可怕的事情发生。 |
| 473 | We were willing to risk the future of our company to, like, limit how, you know, these models are used. | 我们愿意冒着我们公司未来的风险 去限制这些模型的使用 |
| 474 | And, you know, what you're talking about is a use case that doesn't even violate our red lines. | 而且,你知道,你所说的是一个使用 案件,甚至没有违反我们的红线。 |
| 475 | We're worried that there will be a hundred times as much, you know, with use cases that do violate our red lines. | 我们担心会有一百倍多的,你知道的,使用 案件确实违反了我们的红线。 |
| 476 | Now, you know, again, I would say I think overall the use of these models is appropriate. | 现在,你知道,我再说一遍, 我认为这些模型的使用是恰当的。 |
| 477 | I think it's good on net, you know, but military decision makers make terrible mistakes, even at the best of times. | 我认为这是很好的网络,你知道, 但军事决策者 犯了可怕的错误, 即使最好的时间。 |
| 478 | And I don't know if we're in the best of times. | 我不知道我们是不是在最好的时代。 |
| 479 | What we've seen here is Claude assists, but a human makes the final call. | 我们在这里看到的是克劳德的协助, 但一个人类作出最后的呼叫。 |
| 480 | So a human made that final call, not Claude. | 所以,一个人类做出了最后的决定,不是克劳德。 |
| 481 | Imagine if you had a world in which not Claude, because we haven't allowed it, but someone else's AI model. | 想象一下,如果你有一个不是克劳德的世界, 因为我们没有允许它, 但别人的AI模型。 |
| 482 | The AI model just makes the decision and the human never sees it. | 人工智能模型只是做决定 人类从不看出来 |
| 483 | That's what we were standing up for. | 这就是我们站出来的目的 |
| 484 | That's what we were fighting against. | 这就是我们反抗的 |
| 485 | This school had a website you could have found it in a Google search, like, shouldn't Claude have spotted that? | 这所学校有一个网站 你可以找到它 在谷歌搜索一样, 不应该克劳德发现了吗? |
| 486 | And it doesn't speak to a scarier issue about using technology as a shortcut in war. | 它不会对一个更可怕的问题说 使用技术作为战争的捷径。 |
| 487 | The principle that was obeyed here is a human makes the human makes the final decision. | 这里遵守的原则是人让人做最后的决定。 |
| 488 | I don't know what role Claude or any other AI had. | 我不知道克劳德或其他AI是什么角色 |
| 489 | But like, if this isn't an illustration why that principle is so important, I don't know what is. | 但是,如果这不是一个说明, 为什么这一原则是如此重要, 我不知道是什么。 |
| 490 | Is AI warfare more likely to stop World War III, a war between the US and China, or is it more likely to make it happen? | AI战争是更可能阻止第三次世界大战,美中战争,还是更可能使战争发生? |
| 491 | I would say on balance it is more likely to stop it. | 我要说,总的来说,它更可能阻止它。 |
| 492 | But if we have no limits on how it's used, then I think, you know, it could be more likely to cause it. | 但是,如果我们没有限制 它是如何使用的, 那么我认为,你知道, 它可能更容易引起它。 |
| 493 | You've seen Dr. Strangelove, right? | 你见过怪人爱的医生吧? |
| 494 | The premise of it was like, you know, you have a doomsday device that automatically fires nuclear weapons when it thinks nuclear weapons are being fired at it. | 它的前提就像,你知道,你有一个末日装置,当它认为核武器正在向它发射时,自动发射核武器。 |
| 495 | What could go wrong, right? | 会出什么事的,对吧? |
| 496 | I think the way conflicts happen is that, you know, the two sides jump at each other. | 我认为冲突发生的方式是,你知道,双方互相跳跃。 |
| 497 | They misunderstand each other. | 他们误解了对方。 |
| 498 | And when we don't have proper oversight of this technology, I think those kinds of accidents are more likely to happen. | 而当我们没有适当监督这种技术时, 我认为这些事故更有可能发生。 |
| 499 | Now, I think if AI is used in an appropriate way in not even warfare, but think of just intelligence collection, | 现在,我想如果使用AI的方式是适当的, 甚至不是战争, 但想想只是收集情报, |
| 500 | like, you know, our adversaries will think twice about, you know, about conducting some kind of invasion or military operation if we know everything that they're doing. | 就像,你知道,我们的对手 会三思而后行,你知道, 关于进行某种 入侵或军事行动 如果我们知道他们在做什么。 |
| 501 | AI's role on the battlefield raises difficult questions, even for a company willing to debate the ethical dilemmas of its own technology. | AI在战场上的角色引起了一些困难的问题,甚至对于一个愿意辩论自己技术的伦理难题的公司来说. |
| 502 | It's a conversation Amadei seems eager to have in public. | 阿玛迪似乎急于公开谈话 |
| 503 | How do you handle the pressure? | 你怎么应付压力? |
| 504 | I try very hard to communicate and always be straightforward and honest. | 我努力沟通 总是直言不讳 |
| 505 | I get up in front of the company every two weeks and just talk for an hour about just what's on my mind, what's going on in the industry, what's going on in the outside world. | 我每两周在公司前站起来,只谈一个小时,只谈我心里想的,行业里想的,外面想的. |
| 506 | It's totally uncensored. | 这是完全未经审查。 |
| 507 | And not only does it build trust, it's very freeing for me, where I feel that I have 3,000 people who are on the same page as me. | 它不仅建立信任,而且为我解脱,我感到有3000人和我处于同一页。 |
| 508 | That is an incredible amplifier and is one of the most useful things in handling the pressure. | 这是一个不可思议的放大器,是处理压力最有用的东西之一。 |
| 509 | Then when we have to confront an external challenge, stand up to, you know, some very difficult situations that we've seen in the last few months, that is what allows us to have a consistent and coherent position. | 然后,当我们不得不面对一个外部挑战时, 站起来,你知道,一些非常困难的情况, 我们在过去几个月里看到的, 这使得我们有一个一致和一致的立场。 |
| 510 | And I think it's an incredible advantage because I never feel like I'm alone. | 我认为这是一个不可思议的优势 因为我从来没有感觉自己孤独。 |
| 511 | Lurking in the background at Anthropics headquarters was the surprise development of a new AI model called Mythos, a model so powerful it spooked everyone. | 人类学总部的背景是 一个叫做"神话"的人工智能新模型的突然发展 这个模型如此强大 吓到了所有人 |
| 512 | Anthropics making headlines almost on a weekly basis, most notably now around Mythos. | 人类学几乎每周都制作头条新闻, |
| 513 | The company believes it's this enormous threat. | 公司认为这是巨大的威胁. |
| 514 | Imagine a world where everyone had a nuclear bazooka, basically. | 想象一下一个每个人都有核火箭筒的世界,基本上。 |
| 515 | Mythos identified thousands of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, exposing potential flaws in every major operating system. | 神话查明了数千个网络安全弱点,暴露了每个主要操作系统的潜在缺陷。 |
| 516 | Anthropics signaled that if fully released, Mythos could hack banks, pry open state secrets, and cripple critical infrastructure. | Anthrophics表示,如果完全发行,神话可以黑入银行,打探国家机密,并瘫痪关键基础设施. |
| 517 | I think the thing that surprised me most about it was the models had been climbing in their ability to find vulnerabilities. | 我认为最让我惊讶的是 模型在寻找弱点的能力上不断攀升。 |
| 518 | It was a particularly large jump. | 这是一个特别大的跳跃。 |
| 519 | Some of the early companies that we gave this to said things like, this is a super weapon. | 一些早期的公司,我们给了这个 说的东西,比如, 这是一个超级武器。 |
| 520 | You should have to own a gun license to use it. | 你应该有枪证才能使用 |
| 521 | Please don't release this. | 请不要发布这个。 |
| 522 | In an initiative called Project Glasswing, Anthropics gave select organizations access to Mythos. | 在一项名为"玻璃翼计划"(Project Glasswing)的倡议中,人类学让一些选定的组织可以访问神话. |
| 523 | Even federal agencies like the National Security Administration clamored to use it, despite Anthropics' blacklisting by the Pentagon. | 连国家安全局等联邦机构 都要求使用它 尽管安特律斯被五角大楼列入黑名单 |
| 524 | I think the future is this kind of cat and mouse game where we need to make sure that the good guys have the tools that they need to defend. | 我认为未来是这种猫鼠游戏 我们需要确保好人有他们需要保护的工具 |
| 525 | And then at some point, you know, the bad guys will have it too. | 然后,在某些时候,你知道,坏人也会拥有它。 |
| 526 | And at that point, we have to make sure the good guys have an even better model so they can be ready for this. | 那时,我们必须确保好人有一个更好的模型 这样他们才能做好这个准备。 |
| 527 | Is it possible to stay ahead of the bad guys? | 能先于坏人吗? |
| 528 | Really, though? | 是吗? |
| 529 | That's what we hope. | 我们希望如此。 |
| 530 | The criticism is you're effectively deciding who gets access and who doesn't. | 批评意见是,你正在有效地决定谁可以进入,谁不能进入. |
| 531 | Why should anyone be comfortable with that kind of concentration of power? | 为什么有人会对这种权力集中感到舒服呢? |
| 532 | It wasn't like, oh, it's so powerful and let's decide who gets the power. | 它不像,哦,它是如此强大 让我们决定谁得到权力。 |
| 533 | It was a very specific concern around cybersecurity. | 这是一个非常具体的网络安全关切。 |
| 534 | And so the way that we decided who to give the model to was grounded in that specific fear. | 因此,我们决定谁给模型 是基于这种特殊的恐惧。 |
| 535 | There's obviously nuance to decide, like, where do you draw that circle? | 显然有细微的 来决定,比如, 你画的圆圈在哪里? |
| 536 | I think that's really complicated. | 我觉得这很复杂 |
| 537 | I think we've tried to be as publicly open as possible to say we're trying our best to make this decision well, but like we might not do it perfectly. | 我想我们试图尽可能公开地说,我们正在尽我们的最大努力来做出这个决定,但好像我们可能做得不完美. |
| 538 | What about the folks who say this was just good marketing? | 那那些说这只是好营销的人呢? |
| 539 | You know, we have suffered enormously commercially from not releasing this model. | 你知道,我们在商业上遭受了巨大的痛苦 因为它没有释放这个模型。 |
| 540 | This model has incredibly accelerated research within Anthropic and production in the next models. | 这个模型在Anthropic内部的研究 和在接下来的模型中的生产 得到了惊人的加速。 |
| 541 | It would do the same in the outside world if we were to release it. | 如果我们要释放它,它在外部世界也会这样做。 |
| 542 | This has hurt us enormously commercially. | 这对我们造成了巨大的商业伤害。 |
| 543 | Have you had to make tradeoffs already that you're not entirely comfortable with? | 你是否已经做了一些你不太舒服的权衡? |
| 544 | Throughout the entire history of Anthropic has been tradeoffs, right? | 在安特罗皮克的整个历史中都是取舍 对吧? |
| 545 | In some ideal world, you would prefer to before you release the first chat bot, you know, you could spend years studying, you know, every, every possible thing that could go wrong with it. | 在一些理想的世界里,你宁愿在释放第一个聊天机器人之前, 你知道,你可以花很多年去研究, 你知道,每一个可能发生的错误。 |
| 546 | Now, we did delay. | 现在,我们确实拖延了。 |
| 547 | We did delay the initial release of Claude, but, you know, we did it for a few months. | 我们确实推迟了克劳德的首次释放 但你知道,我们做了几个月 |
| 548 | So everything is a tradeoff. | 所以一切皆是取舍. |
| 549 | Now that we're in, you know, what I would describe as a commercially leading position, we can afford to move the dial even further towards being careful, right? | 现在,你知道的,我想称之为商业领先的位置, 我们可以更进一步地把拨号移到小心,对不对? |
| 550 | That's what the mythos release was about, right? | 这就是神话的释放,对不对? |
| 551 | It's very hard to do something like that if you're not the leading player. | 如果你不是主角的话,做这样的事很难. |
| 552 | There's this argument. | 有此辩才. |
| 553 | Why wouldn't the government take you over? | 政府为什么不接管你? |
| 554 | Why would they let a private company control technology that's so powerful? | 他们为什么要让私人公司控制如此强大的技术? |
| 555 | So I think I actually think that's a very, that's a very serious question. | 所以我觉得这是一个非常,非常严重的问题。 |
| 556 | And I share those concerns. | 我也有同样的关切。 |
| 557 | I don't think the government should outright take us over. | 我觉得政府不应该直接接管我们 |
| 558 | Every previous powerful technology we've seen in history was either built by the government or originated with the government. | 我们以前在历史上看到的每一个强大的技术,要么是由政府建造的,要么是源于政府. |
| 559 | So nuclear weapons, obviously, you know, initially built by the government, the Internet, GPS, cell phones. | 所以,核武器,很明显,你知道, 最初由政府建造, 互联网,GPS,手机。 |
| 560 | AI is the first technology that's been built in the private sector and where government has not really had a serious role and is coming in late to the game. | AI是民营部门建设的第一种技术,而政府并没有真正扮演严肃的角色,并即将进入游戏的后期. |
| 561 | I think that's actually a dangerous and unstable situation. | 我认为这实际上是一个危险和不稳定的局势。 |
| 562 | It is not the situation I would have chosen this technology. | 我本来不会选择这种技术的 |
| 563 | I'm scared of companies having it, but I'm also scared of government having it. | 我害怕公司拥有它 但我也害怕政府拥有它 |
| 564 | And then, you know, we need basic regulation of the technology, you know, more and more. | 然后,你知道,我们需要 技术的基本规范, 你知道,越来越多的。 |
| 565 | As I've seen what we've seen with Mythos, you know, I think we need to start doing pre-release testing, required pre-release testing, testing and auditing of the models. | 正如我所看到的,神话,你知道, 我认为我们需要开始做 释放前测试, 要求 释放前测试,测试和审计模型。 |
| 566 | This was an approach the White House rejected initially. | 这是白宫最初拒绝的做法。 |
| 567 | On his first day back in office, President Trump, with the help of former AI and crypto czar David Sachs, dismantled President Biden's AI executive order seeking guardrails, instead favoring a hands-off, let Silicon Valley do its thing approach. | 特朗普总统在上任的第一天,在前AI和秘密沙皇大卫·萨克斯的帮助下,拆除了拜登总统寻求护栏的AI行政命令,转而倾向于握手,让硅谷来做它的事情. |
| 568 | We believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it's taking off. | 我们相信,过度监管AI部门 可能杀死一个转型产业 就像它正在起飞。 |
| 569 | But with Mythos and its national security implications proving hard to ignore, the White House now seems to want to gatekeep the world's most powerful AI. | 白宫现在似乎想保持世界上最强大的AI。 |
| 570 | It's very funny to me how there's a particular group of people in the tech world in Silicon Valley. | 对我来说非常有趣 硅谷科技界有一群人 |
| 571 | They started with a position of like, you know, even having transparency around this technology, even export control, you know, this is all, you know, just totally it'll apocalyptically destroy our potential to create the technology. | 他们一开始的立场是, 即使有透明度 围绕这种技术, 甚至出口管制, 你知道,这一切都是,你知道, 只是它完全会 毁灭我们创造技术的潜力。 |
| 572 | It'll kill innovation. | 这会扼杀创新. |
| 573 | And then as soon as they see the first real danger, which I've been expecting all along, there's all this talk of like nationalization and the government should just seize it. | 然后,一旦他们看到第一个真正的危险, 我一直期待着, 这一切的谈话,像国有化, 政府应该只是抓住它。 |
| 574 | Come on, folks here, you're yo-yoing from like the most extreme anti-regulatory, if you look at us the wrong way, you're destroying the industry to, you know, this completely communist, the government should grab it all. | 拜托,各位,你们从最极端的 反管制的角度出发, 如果你看错了我们的方式, 你破坏这个行业,你知道,这个完全共产主义的, 政府应该抓住它。 |
| 575 | We need a more sensible, moderate approach. | 我们需要一种更明智、更温和的办法。 |
| 576 | That's the one we've been favoring all along because we've understood the power of this technology. | 这是我们一直喜欢的 因为我们了解了这个技术的力量 |
| 577 | We're not panicking. | 我们没有惊慌失措 |
| 578 | We're not denying it. | 我们没有否认 |
| 579 | We see the smooth exponential and we're responding to it appropriately. | 我们看到平滑指数,我们对此反应适当。 |
| 580 | The reaction to AI right now, it's intense. | 现在对AI的反应很激烈. |
| 581 | Anthropic has built this really loyal following. | Anthropic建立了这个真正的忠诚的追随者。 |
| 582 | There are some people who just love what they stand for, but there have also been protests right outside their office. | 有些人只爱他们所支持的东西, |
| 583 | There's a lot of anxiety, a lot of confusion. | 烦恼多烦恼多惑. |
| 584 | There's some real anger right now about what's happening, and it actually feels like it's escalating. | 现在对所发生的事情有些真正的愤怒,实际上感觉自己在不断升级. |
| 585 | Artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution. | 人工智能是接下来的工业革命. |
| 586 | If you look at the data, people are more concerned than excited about what's going on. | 如果你看数据, 人们更关心 而不是兴奋发生了什么。 |
| 587 | They think the risks outweigh the benefits. | 他们认为风险大于利益。 |
| 588 | And the truth is, if you talk to the people who are building this, even they will tell you, they don't fully know how it's all going to play out. | 事实是,如果你和那些 建造这栋大楼的人说话, 即使他们也会告诉你, 他们也不完全知道它会怎样运作。 |
| 589 | How do you think about the weight of this moment? | 你觉得这个时刻的重量如何? |
| 590 | I worry that something will go wrong. | 我担心会出问题 |
| 591 | You know, are we doing literally everything we can? | 你知道,我们在做 字面上我们能做的吗? |
| 592 | We're certainly trying our best. | 我们肯定在尽力 |
| 593 | We're certainly trying very hard. | 我们很努力 |
| 594 | What I want is to create a situation where if this set of people can't do it, it couldn't be done. | 我想创造的局面是,如果这群人做不到,那是不可能的. |
| 595 | You can't guarantee success, but maybe you can guarantee that. | 你不能保证成功,但也许你可以保证。 |
| 596 | It's getting personal. | 变得私人化了 |
| 597 | Sam Altman在街上的家被袭击了 | |
| 598 | How is that affecting you? | 这对你有什么影响? |
| 599 | It was really scary to read that. | 读这个真可怕 |
| 600 | I mean, it was, we were obviously extremely relieved that he and his family were OK. | 我的意思是,这是,我们显然 极其放心,他和他的家人是好的。 |
| 601 | In general, I think this is a time, you know, technologically, politically, where unfortunately there's just a lot more rhetoric and words that I think can lead to bad outcomes and bad things happening. | 总的来说,我认为这是一个时间,在技术上,政治上,不幸的是,还有更多的言辞和言辞,我认为它们会导致不良的结果和坏事发生. |
| 602 | I hope that this is a topic we can all just debate, you know, as peacefully as possible. | 我希望,这是我们大家能够尽可能和平地辩论的一个议题。 |
| 603 | It was scary to me too. | 对我来说也很可怕 |
| 604 | I mean, you know, this is like a less savory aspect of the exponential, right? | 我的意思是,你知道, 这就像一个不那么 喜欢的指数方面,对不对? |
| 605 | I think that as AI gets more and more of a big thing, like, you know, it becomes just such a big deal to society. | 我认为,随着AI 越来越大的事情, 像,你知道,它变成 只是一个如此大的问题 对于社会。 |
| 606 | There's more attention on it. | 更受关注. |
| 607 | There's been massive backlash against social media. | 社会媒体遭到大规模反弹. |
| 608 | Countries are starting to ban it. | 各国开始禁止这种做法。 |
| 609 | Could that happen to AI? | 会不会发生在AI身上? |
| 610 | I think it's absolutely possible if the social media companies could go back in time and see the world that they see today, would they do anything differently? | 我认为,如果社交媒体公司能够回到过去,看看他们今天所看到的世界,那么,他们会做什么不同的事情,这是绝对可能的? |
| 611 | I like to think the answer to that is yes, I don't know. | 我觉得答案是肯定的 我不知道 |
| 612 | If we sort of project some of the challenges that the social media companies have faced around child welfare, mental health, election integrity, all of these topics, we're really lucky that we're second. | 如果我们预测一下社交媒体公司在儿童福利,心理健康,选举诚信,所有这些话题上所面临的一些挑战,我们真的幸运的是,我们是第二位的. |
| 613 | We view it as our job to try and proactively think about all of the things that could go wrong, because if we don't, who's going to? | 我们认为我们的工作是 尝试并主动地思考所有可能出错的事情, 因为如果我们不这样做,谁会去呢? |
| 614 | You know, I don't know that they actually set out to do the right thing or make the world a better place. | 你知道,我不知道他们实际上 开始做正确的事情 或者让世界更美好。 |
| 615 | And so I don't think if they were going back, they would even knowing what they do, and they certainly should do things differently. | 所以我不认为如果他们回去, 他们甚至知道自己在做什么, 他们肯定应该做不同的事情。 |
| 616 | I don't know if they actually will. | 我不知道他们是否真的会 |
| 617 | But we can't. | 但我们不能。 |
| 618 | This is why we're trying to get this right the first time. | 这就是我们为什么第一次想把事情搞好的原因 |
| 619 | Instead of waiting for things to go wrong, then scrambling to justify why it's all okay. | 而不是等待事情发生错误,然后拼命地解释为什么一切都好。 |
| 620 | The main way I could see AI being, you know, banned or blocked is if something really went wrong. | 我可以看到AI被,你知道,禁止或封锁的主要方式是 如果真的出了问题。 |
| 621 | And if something really went wrong, then maybe it deserves to be. | 如果真的出了问题,那也许就值得了。 |
| 622 | You have technologists saying it's going to be amazing and others saying it could be awful. | 你有技术专家说,它会是惊人的, 而其他人则说它可能是可怕的。 |
| 623 | Where are you on that spectrum? | 光谱图呢? |
| 624 | I hope the best, but plan for the worst. | 我希望最好,但计划最坏。 |
| 625 | For me, this is the most important work I've ever done. | 对我来说 这是我做过的最重要的工作 |
| 626 | For some people, it feels like this is the last job, because this is sort of the it could mean the end of work. | 对有些人来说,感觉这是最后的工作, 因为这可能意味着工作的结束。 |
| 627 | And I think for other people, it's, you know, like maybe it's not the last job, but it's existential to get this right. | 我想对其他人来说,这就像,你知道, 也许这不是最后的工作, 但它的存在性 得到这个正确。 |
| 628 | And so there's just this this kind of burden. | 所以有这样的负担。 |
| 629 | If the impacts could be as significant as we're talking about, as significant as Anthropic has warned about, | 如果影响能和我们所说的一样大 和Anthropic警告的一样大 |
| 630 | what responsibility do you think Anthropic has to cushion the blow? | 你认为Anthropic有什么责任来缓冲打击? |
| 631 | What do you owe the people whose lives you've upended? | 你欠那些你延长生命的人什么? |
| 632 | I think our view has always been we ultimately are responsible as an industry, | 我认为我们的观点一直是 我们最终作为一个行业的责任, |
| 633 | the industry that's developing this technology, for thinking through what are the risks? | 开发这种技术的行业, 思考什么是风险? |
| 634 | What are the bad things that could happen? | 可能发生的坏事是什么? |
| 635 | And if some of those things come to pass, what is our role in helping to fix them? | 如果其中一些事情发生,我们在帮助解决这些事情方面有什么作用? |
| 636 | That is our job, right? | 这是我们的工作,对不对? |
| 637 | We should not just say, well, we were just trying to grow the product. | 我们不应该只是说, 我们只是想种植产品。 |
| 638 | And suddenly there's an entire generation of young women who have eating disorders or who have mental health problems, | 突然间,有整整一代年轻女性 饮食失调或有心理健康问题, |
| 639 | because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product. | 我们只是想种这个产品 |
| 640 | That's not the stance that I think any technology company should take. | 我认为科技公司不应该这样 |
| 641 | I don't think that's the stance that we're trying to take. | 我不认为我们想采取的立场。 |
| 642 | For a company whose identity is so wrapped up in. | 对于一个身份如此模糊的公司来说 |
| 643 | We want to do this right. | 我们想这样做的权利。 |
| 644 | We exist as an AI safety company. | 我们作为一个AI安全公司存在。 |
| 645 | How can we just help all of this go well? | 我们怎么能帮助这一切顺利进行呢? |
| 646 | It can be hard to understand why Anthropic is pushing so hard to advance AI | 很难理解为什么Anthropic 这么大力推进AI |
| 647 | while being so upfront about the dangers. | 同时也在面对危险 |
| 648 | In his essays, Dario lays out what the end game looks like if everything goes right with AI, | 达里奥在他的散文中 阐述了如果AI一切顺利 游戏结局是什么样子的 |
| 649 | a utopian future where machines and humans work side by side. | 一个乌托邦的未来 机器和人类并肩工作 |
| 650 | AI, an inevitable force steered toward prosperity rather than catastrophe. | AI,一种不可避免的力量 引导走向繁荣而不是灾难。 |
| 651 | To mitigate the devastation of job loss, he proposes solutions like universal basic income | 为了减轻失业的破坏,他提出了普遍基本收入等解决办法。 |
| 652 | and progressive taxation of AI companies. | 对AI公司的累进税。 |
| 653 | But as the Omedes confront the messy realities of power, politics, and profit, | 但随着奥梅德人面对权力、政治和利润的混乱现实, |
| 654 | the real test is whether that founding mission can survive the scale of what they're building. | 真正的考验是 这个创始使命是否能够 度过他们正在建设的规模。 |
| 655 | Google started with the motto, don't be evil, a founding promise the company quietly retired as it grew. | Google从座右铭开始,不要邪恶,这是公司在成长时悄悄退休的创始承诺. |
| 656 | You are building something incredibly powerful and stand to gain enormously from it. | 你正在建造一些非常强大的东西 并且能够从中获得巨大的收益。 |
| 657 | Why should we trust you? | 我们为什么要相信你? |
| 658 | I think starting from a position of distrust, you know, if you don't know anything about me, | 我想从不信任开始 如果你对我一无所知 |
| 659 | if you know anything about Anthropic, it's pretty rational. | 如果你知道什么 关于Anthropic, 这是相当合理的。 |
| 660 | I think Silicon Valley has lost a lot of the world's trust and kind of has to re-earn it. | 我认为硅谷失去了许多世界的信任,不得不重新学习. |
| 661 | And the message, you know, we're trying to send is we're actually different. | 我们想要传达的信息其实是不同的。 |
| 662 | And that has to be earned in things that we actually do. | 这必须从我们实际所做的事情中获得。 |
| 663 | I understand one of your favorite books is The Making of the Atomic Bomb. | 我知道你最喜欢的一本书是《制造原子弹》 |
| 664 | That is correct. | 没错 |
| 665 | Do you see parallels between yourself and Oppenheimer? | 你看到自己和奥本海默的相似之处了吗? |
| 666 | The figure I most identified with was Leo Szilard, | 我最认同的是利奥·西拉德 |
| 667 | who was the one who first had the idea that there could be a chain reaction. | 谁是第一个想到 可能有一个链式反应。 |
| 668 | Look, my view is we're not going to get through this with like larger-than-life personalities | 你看,我的观点是,我们不会通过 与这样的大比生命的人格 |
| 669 | or like figures who try and be at the center of everything. | 或像那些试图成为一切中心人物 |
| 670 | In some ways, I actually see Oppenheimer as a failure case, as what should not happen. | 在某些方面,我实际上将奥本海默视为失败案例,认为不该发生的事情. |
| 671 | There's a lot of powerful actors who have interests here, | 有很多有影响力的演员在这里有利益 |
| 672 | and the only way it's going to end well for everyone is if there's basically checks and balances everywhere. | 并且唯一能让每个人都有好结果的方法 就是基本上到处都有制衡 |
| 673 | You've said there's roughly a 10 to 25 percent chance of civilizational collapse. | 你说文明崩溃的几率大约是10%到25%。 |
| 674 | That is not insignificant. | 这并非微不足道。 |
| 675 | Is there a scenario where it's something that Anthropic built that caused that? | 难道有Anthropic制造的东西 造成这种情况吗? |
| 676 | I mean, I certainly hope not. | 我的意思是,我当然希望不是。 |
| 677 | My view is that that probability comes from the very straightforward recipe of the technology, | 我认为,这种可能性来自技术的简单配方, |
| 678 | the existence of many countries in the world, the existence of many companies within an economy, | 世界上许多国家的存在,经济中许多公司的存在, |
| 679 | and new ones created if the void isn't filled. | 和新创造的,如果空虚没有填补。 |
| 680 | That's the dilemma that we're in. | 这就是我们陷入的困境。 |
| 681 | Half of what we do within the company is try and reduce the risk as much as we can, | 我们公司一半的工作是 尽量降低风险 |
| 682 | but it's never going to be zero. | 但它永远不会是零。 |
| 683 | Suppose there are a bunch of airline companies out there, | 如果有一堆航空公司在那里, |
| 684 | and you're like, well, I'm going to make an airline company that's safer. | 你就像,嗯, 我要让一家航空公司 更安全。 |
| 685 | It can both be the case that, you know, your airline company is 10 times safer than all the other airline companies, | 你的公司比其他航空公司安全十倍 |
| 686 | but if someone comes and asks you, like, can you guarantee that your airplane will never crash? | 但如果有人来问你 你能保证你的飞机不会坠毁吗? |
| 687 | I mean, how could you? | 我是说,你怎么能这样? |
| 688 | How could you possibly? | 你怎么能这样? |
| 689 | But if there was a 25 percent chance of an airplane crashing, you wouldn't get on that plane. | 但如果有25%的飞机坠毁概率 你就不会上那架飞机了 |
| 690 | That's right. | 没错 |
| 691 | 25 percent is too high. | 25%是太高了。 |
| 692 | We're trying to make that probability much, much lower. | 我们试图让这种概率降低很多。 |
| 693 | That is the goal. | 这就是目标。 |
| 694 | How do you find your zen? | 你怎么找到你的禅? |
| 695 | How do you relax? | 你怎么放轻松? |
| 696 | You know, honestly, a lot of it's just exposure to it. | 你知道,说实话,很多事情只是暴露在它。 |
| 697 | You know, I sometimes I'll just like, you know, I'll just take a weekend and I'll like play some video games sometimes with Daniella. | 你知道,我有时会只是喜欢, 你知道,我只是 周末,我会喜欢玩一些电子游戏 有时与丹尼尔拉。 |
| 698 | Me and my wife go to Italy sometimes. | 我和我妻子有时会去意大利 |
| 699 | We have a horse there, so I'll just I'll just sit there. | 我们那里有匹马 所以我就坐在那里 |
| 700 | Next, I'll just I'll just look at her horse and I'll be like, you know, Calypso, who's her horse? | 接下来,我就看着她的马 我会像,你知道的,卡利普索,谁是她的马? |
| 701 | Like, you know, she doesn't know about any of this. | 喜欢,你知道, 她不知道任何这一切。 |
| 702 | Like, she's just a happy horse. | 喜欢,她只是一个快乐的马。 |
| 703 | Like. | 喜欢。 |
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