历史偶然：特工因性功能障碍改变了冷战结局 | 2026.10
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:03 | Did the West win the Cold War and avert nuclear Armageddon because of the sexual incapacity | 西方是否因为性无能而赢得了冷战 并避免了核战 |
| 0:10 | of an obscure secret agent? | 神秘特工吗? |
| 0:12 | This is the intriguing proposition of Redwood, a new non-fiction book by British author and | 这是Redwood的有趣提议 英国作家的一本非虚构新书 |
| 0:19 | 记者Ben McIntyre。 | |
| 0:21 | It's 1981 in post-revolutionary Iran, a time of incredible turmoil in the country, much | 这是1981年革命后的伊朗, 这个国家令人难以置信的动荡时期,很多 |
| 0:28 | as it is today. | 就像今天一样。 |
| 0:30 | A mysterious six-foot-four Russian intelligence officer operating in Tehran made himself known | 一位神秘的六英尺四英尺高的俄罗斯情报人员 在德黑兰行动时 发现自己 |
| 0:37 | to MI6. | 致军情六处. |
| 0:38 | He was prepared to exchange some of the deepest secrets of the KGB in exchange for help with | 他准备交换克格勃的一些最深层的秘密 作为交换 |
| 0:45 | a secret of his own. | 这是他自己的秘密 |
展开字幕全文（69 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Did the West win the Cold War and avert nuclear Armageddon because of the sexual incapacity | 西方是否因为性无能而赢得了冷战 并避免了核战 |
| 2 | of an obscure secret agent? | 神秘特工吗? |
| 3 | This is the intriguing proposition of Redwood, a new non-fiction book by British author and | 这是Redwood的有趣提议 英国作家的一本非虚构新书 |
| 4 | 记者Ben McIntyre。 | |
| 5 | It's 1981 in post-revolutionary Iran, a time of incredible turmoil in the country, much | 这是1981年革命后的伊朗, 这个国家令人难以置信的动荡时期,很多 |
| 6 | as it is today. | 就像今天一样。 |
| 7 | A mysterious six-foot-four Russian intelligence officer operating in Tehran made himself known | 一位神秘的六英尺四英尺高的俄罗斯情报人员 在德黑兰行动时 发现自己 |
| 8 | to MI6. | 致军情六处. |
| 9 | He was prepared to exchange some of the deepest secrets of the KGB in exchange for help with | 他准备交换克格勃的一些最深层的秘密 作为交换 |
| 10 | a secret of his own. | 这是他自己的秘密 |
| 11 | That secret, erectile dysfunction no less, is a debility that is destroying his young | 这秘密 勃起的功能障碍 正在摧毁他的年轻 |
| 12 | And knowing, like all Russians at the time, that Western medicine is vastly superior to | 和当时所有俄国人一样,知道西医比 |
| 13 | the Soviet kind, he's convinced there must be a cure for his affliction on the other | 苏联人,他相信 一定有治疗他痛苦的方法 |
| 14 | side of the wall. | 墙的一侧。 |
| 15 | It isn't giving too much away to report that the Russian defector does get his new life | 报告俄国叛逃者 得到他的新生活并不算太多 |
| 16 | and his mojo back, no thanks to Western medicine. | 及其摩诃还,不谢西医. |
| 17 | And the intelligence he produces exposes a plot in which the communist two-day party | 而他创造的情报 揭露了一个阴谋 共产主义的两天党 |
| 18 | may have seized control of Iran with support from Russian tanks and troops. | 在俄罗斯坦克和部队的支持下,可能夺取了对伊朗的控制。 |
| 19 | There's obviously more to it than that, but the point of McIntyre's yarn is another reminder | 这显然不止于此 但麦金泰尔的线条是另一个提醒 |
| 20 | of the familiar and often overlooked aspect of history, that it is often contingent on | 常被忽视的历史方面,往往取决于 |
| 21 | small, random, obscure events. | 小的,随机的,模糊的事件。 |
| 22 | To firm up the connective tissue, as it were, if Viagra had been invented a decade earlier | 如果伟哥是十年前发明的 那样的连接组织 |
| 23 | than it was, the Soviet Union might have achieved a decisive strategic breakthrough and won | 苏联可能已经取得了决定性的战略突破 并取得了胜利 |
| 24 | the Cold War. | 冷战。 |
| 25 | The balance in this interplay between great impersonal forces and small individual acts | 巨大非个人力量与小个人行为之间相互作用的平衡 |
| 26 | can vary. | 可以变异。 |
| 27 | A nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. | 一场核战争是不能赢的,绝不能打。 |
| 28 | We know that nuclear war was avoided between the US and Russia because of both sides' | 我们知道,美国和俄罗斯之间避免了核战争,因为双方 |
| 29 | eagerness to avoid mutual assured destruction. | 渴望避免相互确保毁灭。 |
| 30 | But we also know that the year before that speech, 1983, it was the presence of mind | 但我们也知道,在那次演讲的前一年, 1983年,这是心灵的存在 |
| 31 | of a lone Russian Lieutenant Colonel Stanislav Petrov that averted war. | 一个俄国中校斯坦尼斯拉夫・彼得罗夫 避免了战争 |
| 32 | Why? | 为什么? |
| 33 | Because he refused to believe what his computer screen was telling him, that the US had launched | 因为他拒绝相信 他的电脑屏幕告诉他, 美国已经启动 |
| 34 | an intercontinental ballistic missile Russia's way. | 俄罗斯的洲际弹道导弹 |
| 35 | What if Gavrilo Princip had failed to kill Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie | 如果加夫里洛·普林西普没有杀弗朗茨·斐迪南大公和他的妻子索菲 |
| 36 | on that Sarajevo street in 1914? | 1914年在萨拉热窝街上? |
| 37 | How might the 20th century then have been different? | 20世纪怎么会不一样呢? |
| 38 | 如果调查者对Zakarius Musawi因涉嫌 | |
| 39 | behavior at a flight school just a few weeks before the horror of September 11, 2001? | 在2001年9月11日的恐怖事件前几周, |
| 40 | No one is happier, no one is prouder, to put this birth certificate matter to rest than | 没有人会高兴的,没有人会骄傲的, 让这个出生证的事情停止 比 |
| 41 | the Donald. | 唐纳德 |
| 42 | And that's because he can finally get back to focusing on the issues that matter, like | 那是因为他终于可以重新关注 重要的问题了 比如 |
| 43 | did we fake the moon landing? | 我们假装月球着陆了吗? |
| 44 | What if Barack Obama hadn't ridiculed Donald Trump at the 2011 White House Correspondence | 如果奥巴马没有在2011年的白宫通讯中嘲笑唐纳德·特朗普呢? |
| 45 | Dinner? | 晚饭? |
| 46 | What really happened in Roswell? | 罗斯威尔到底发生了什么? |
| 47 | And lit a fire of revenge under the man? | 并点燃了复仇的火焰 在男人之下? |
| 48 | And where are Biggie and Tupac? | 毕吉和图帕克呢? |
| 49 | Now we can say in these and other cases that something else would have occurred, propelled | 现在,我们可以说在这些和其他情况下, 事情会发生, |
| 50 | by the larger structural forces driving history that would have put us in pretty much the | 由更大的结构 驱动历史 本来可以使我们几乎 |
| 51 | same place anyway. | 反正是同一个地方 |
| 52 | The European powers were poised for war in 1914 and some other trigger would have mobilized | 欧洲列强在1914年就准备开战了 而其他的触发器也会发动 |
| 53 | them. | 他们。 |
| 54 | If 9-11 had been averted, another enterprising terrorist would have gotten through and inflicted | 如果9-11被避免,另一个有野心的恐怖分子就会通过并受到迫害。 |
| 55 | a similar catastrophe. | 类似的灾难。 |
| 56 | Say what you will about Mr. Trump, he certainly would bring some change to the White House. | 说说特朗普先生的事 他肯定会给白宫带来一些变化 |
| 57 | See what we've got up there. | 看看上面有什么 |
| 58 | If Mr. Obama had simply ignored Mr. Trump that night, the combination of rising popular | 如果当晚奥巴马先生忽视了特朗普先生的话 大众化的结合 |
| 59 | disgust with bipartisan politics and Mr. Trump's vaulting ambition would have produced the | 对两党政治的厌恶和特朗普先生的潜伏野心 将会产生 |
| 60 | same outcome. | 同样的结果。 |
| 61 | But can we be sure? | 但我们能确定吗? |
| 62 | I suspect we give primacy to the vast impersonal forces because they make us feel more secure | 我怀疑我们把无人的力量放在首位 因为它们让我们觉得更安全 |
| 63 | We like to think our lives are ordered by easily understood causation, a chain of big, | 我们喜欢认为我们的生活是由 容易理解的因果关系来决定的 一系列大, |
| 64 | identifiable things connected by logic. | 可识别的由逻辑连接的东西。 |
| 65 | The idea that so much of our current historical context could be determined by seemingly arbitrary | 我们目前许多历史背景可以被 似乎武断的 |
| 66 | events, spur-of-the-moment decisions, and even the improbable personal foibles of men | 事件,刺激性的决定, 乃至不可能的 个人错误 |
| 67 | we've never heard of, is destabilizing and undermining of the sense of our own agency. | 我们从未听说过, 破坏稳定 和破坏我们自己的机构的意识。 |
| 68 | But it's helpful to be reminded that in some respects history moves in unusual ways, leaving | 但应该提醒大家 在某些方面 历史以不同寻常的方式发展 |
| 69 | us all quite impotent. | 我们都很无力 |
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