彭博：俄罗斯经济如何在普京的战争中幸存下来 | 2025.3
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:04 | We've really witnessed a historic shift that has changed the world order. | 我们确实目睹了历史性的转变,改变了世界秩序. |
| 0:09 | This was the first time a U.S. president had spoken with Putin since the invasion of 2022. | 这是美国总统自2022年入侵以来第一次与普京谈话. |
| 0:18 | That phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin shifted | 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔·普京之间的电话调换 |
| 0:23 | global alliances. | 全球联盟。 |
| 0:25 | From the very beginning of the war, you're not in a good position. | 从战争一开始,你就处于不善的地位. |
| 0:28 | You don't have the cards right now. | 你现在没有牌 |
| 0:30 | With us, you start having cards. | 和我们一起,你开始有牌。 |
| 0:32 | Right now, you don't have your playing cards. | 现在,你没有你的玩牌。 |
| 0:36 | You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. | 汝以百万众生作赌博. |
| 0:39 | You're gambling with World War III. | 你在赌第三次世界大战 |
展开字幕全文（116 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | We've really witnessed a historic shift that has changed the world order. | 我们确实目睹了历史性的转变,改变了世界秩序. |
| 2 | This was the first time a U.S. president had spoken with Putin since the invasion of 2022. | 这是美国总统自2022年入侵以来第一次与普京谈话. |
| 3 | That phone call between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin shifted | 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和俄罗斯领导人弗拉基米尔·普京之间的电话调换 |
| 4 | global alliances. | 全球联盟。 |
| 5 | From the very beginning of the war, you're not in a good position. | 从战争一开始,你就处于不善的地位. |
| 6 | You don't have the cards right now. | 你现在没有牌 |
| 7 | With us, you start having cards. | 和我们一起,你开始有牌。 |
| 8 | Right now, you don't have your playing cards. | 现在,你没有你的玩牌。 |
| 9 | You're gambling with the lives of millions of people. | 汝以百万众生作赌博. |
| 10 | You're gambling with World War III. | 你在赌第三次世界大战 |
| 11 | Relations between Trump and Zelensky have deteriorated since then. | 特朗普与泽连斯基的关系从此恶化. |
| 12 | I think it's inevitable that we're going to be facing Cold War-style military spending. | 我认为,我们不可避免地要面对冷战式的军费开支. |
| 13 | There's going to be competition for resources. | 会有争夺资源的竞争. |
| 14 | Even with a ceasefire on the table, U.S. military support for Ukraine and Europe as a whole | 即使是停火,美国对乌克兰和整个欧洲的军事支持 |
| 15 | is no longer assured. | 不再保证。 |
| 16 | That means Europe's future ability to contain Russia has become less certain. | 这意味着欧洲未来遏制俄罗斯的能力变得不那么确定. |
| 17 | But what is clear is that over a decade of sanctions have not worked. | 但很清楚的是,十多年的制裁没有奏效。 |
| 18 | Russia's economy has weathered the war and sanctions much better than many Western analysts | 俄国的经济在战争和制裁中比许多西方分析家要好得多 |
| 19 | forecast. | 预测。 |
| 20 | The world and the seven applied some of the harshest measures in Russia and still hasn't | 全世界和七人采取了俄罗斯最严厉的措施 还没有 |
| 21 | been able to deter it. | 能够阻止它。 |
| 22 | From the Kremlin's point of view, the economy isn't the primary concern right now. | 克里姆林宫认为,经济现在不是首要关注问题. |
| 23 | Putin's focused on achieving his goals in Ukraine and achieving his goals in confrontation | 普京专注于在乌克兰实现他的目标和在对抗中实现他的目标. |
| 24 | with the West. | 与西方. |
| 25 | So how has Russia's economy survived the war? | 那么俄国的经济如何在战争中幸存下来? |
| 26 | And is there anything left in the toolbox to check its military power? | 工具箱里还有什么东西可以检查它的军力吗? |
| 27 | Russia's economy basically is down to two things. | 俄罗斯的经济基本上只有两件事 |
| 28 | First, this is the export of energy products. | 首先,这是能源产品的出口。 |
| 29 | Oil, natural gas. | 石油,天然气. |
| 30 | The second driver of the Russian economy is war. | 俄罗斯经济的第二个动力是战争. |
| 31 | The military-industrial complex is the most dynamic part of Russian economy at the moment. | 军工综合体是目前俄罗斯经济中最具活力的部分. |
| 32 | The Russian government has been pumping huge sums of money into the economy, both to support | 俄罗斯政府一直在向经济中注入巨额资金 都是为了支持 |
| 33 | defense production and to support businesses and sectors that have been affected by international | B. 国防生产和支持受到国际、 |
| 34 | sanctions. | 制裁。 |
| 35 | The military is now competing with the civilian sector for labor and for men to go to the | 军队现在与平民部门竞争 劳动力和男人去 |
| 36 | And the only way for many civilian industries to compete with that is to increase their | 许多民用工业与之竞争的唯一办法是增加其 |
| 37 | own salaries. | 工资。 |
| 38 | That soaks demand to a level that the economy isn't really able to meet. | 这让经济无法满足的需求。 |
| 39 | The economy has been overheating in that regard. | 在这方面,经济一直过热。 |
| 40 | Overheating means inflation, which spiked in 2022. | 过度加热意味着通货膨胀,2022年通货膨胀猛增. |
| 41 | Capital controls and interest rates managed it briefly, but since mid-2023, it's been | 资本控制和利率曾短暂管理过,但从2023年中开始 |
| 42 | on the rise. | 在上升时。 |
| 43 | The inflation problem is a salient one. | 通货膨胀是一个突出的问题。 |
| 44 | It means that Russia's central bank needs to keep its monetary policy pretty tight. | 这意味着俄罗斯中央银行需要保持货币政策相当紧凑. |
| 45 | Russia's interest rates now are close to 21%. | 俄罗斯现在的利率接近21%. |
| 46 | Interest rates this high make it difficult for private, non-defense-affiliated corporations | 如此高的利率使得私营、非国防附属公司很难 |
| 47 | to do business. | 要做生意。 做业务。 |
| 48 | Despite these headwinds, Russia has a lot of fiscal space. | 尽管出现了这些头风,俄罗斯仍然拥有很大的财政空间. |
| 49 | Russian spending, shown here in orange bars, hasn't led to much debt since federal revenue, | 俄罗斯的支出,在这里显示 在橙色的酒吧, 没有导致很多债务 自联邦收入, |
| 50 | reflected by the blue bars, has roughly been equal. | 被蓝色的条纹所反映出来, 大致是平等的。 |
| 51 | This means that the deficit is under 3%. | 这意味着赤字低于3%。 |
| 52 | Looking at how much oil and gas brings in, you can see how important energy is to the | 看油气能带来多少,你可以看到能源对 |
| 53 | Russian economy. | 俄罗斯经济. |
| 54 | Russia now produces around 10.4 million barrels a day. | 俄罗斯现在每天生产约1 040万桶。 |
| 55 | This puts Russia as the third largest producer of oil just behind the US and Saudi Arabia. | 这使得俄罗斯成为仅次于美国和沙特阿拉伯的第三大石油生产国。 |
| 56 | The Russian government taxes the sales and the revenues, and it receives dividends as | 俄罗斯政府对销售和收入征税,并获得股息。 |
| 57 | a major stakeholder in most of the corporations that are involved. | 参与的大多数公司的主要利益相关者。 |
| 58 | The stability of price and supply for oil is a global priority, but it's also an Achilles heel. | 石油价格和供应的稳定性是全球的优先事项,但也是阿喀琉斯脚跟. |
| 59 | Russian oil is restricted only above the price cap of $60 a barrel. | 俄罗斯石油仅限超过每桶60美元的价格上限。 |
| 60 | Going back to the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, sanctions targeted both Russian | 回到俄国入侵乌克兰的开始 制裁的对象都是俄国人 |
| 61 | oil producers, financial institutions, but they were designed in a way that Russia would | 石油生产国,金融机构, 但它们的设计方式 俄罗斯会 |
| 62 | keep producing oil to essentially avoid an energy price shock. | 继续生产石油,基本上避免能源价格的冲击。 |
| 63 | There was real worry that putting stricter sanctions on Russian oil would cause gas prices | 对俄罗斯石油实行更严格的制裁 会导致天然气价格 |
| 64 | in the US to rise. | 在美国崛起。 |
| 65 | The oil markets are tight in the sense that there's no potential supply that can replace | 石油市场很紧,因为没有潜在的供应可以取代 |
| 66 | Russia's exports at the moment. | 俄罗斯目前的出口. |
| 67 | Another limit to the power of sanctions is the fungible nature of the world's most traded | 制裁力量的另一个限制是世界交易最多的可替代性 |
| 68 | commodity. | 商品。 |
| 69 | Oil can be sold, it can be resold and traded, and this means that there are a lot of opportunities | 石油可以出售,可以转售和交易,这意味着有很多机会 |
| 70 | to work around sanctions and restrictions. | 围绕制裁和限制开展工作。 |
| 71 | About 10 days before Biden was due to leave office, he imposed sweeping sanctions on Russia's | 拜登离职约十天前 他对俄国实行全面制裁 |
| 72 | shadow fleet of tankers that it uses to transport oil outside of Western restrictions. | 影子船队,它用来运输石油 超出西方的限制。 |
| 73 | 它还对俄罗斯两大石油生产国Sergant Neftogaz和Gazprom Neft实施制裁。 | |
| 74 | And that really was an attempt by the Biden administration to put Ukraine in the best | 这确实是拜登政府 试图让乌克兰在最好的 |
| 75 | possible position. | 可能的姿势。 |
| 76 | Now critics claim that this was too little too late. | 现在批评者声称这太迟了。 |
| 77 | Along with oil, Russia has the largest natural gas reserves in the world. | 连同石油,俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的天然气储量. |
| 78 | In 2021, the EU imported almost half of its gas from Russia. | 2021年,欧盟从俄罗斯进口了近一半的天然气. |
| 79 | Norway provided about a quarter and the US just six percent. | 挪威提供了大约四分之一,美国只提供了6%。 |
| 80 | By 2023, Russia's share dropped to 15 percent. | 到2023年,俄罗斯的份额下降到15%. |
| 81 | With Norway and the US largely filling the gap, Russia lost its primary gas market. | 随着挪威和美国基本填补缺口,俄罗斯失去了其主要的天然气市场。 |
| 82 | But it continued to make billions from oil sold to other regions. | 但是,它继续从出售到其他地区的石油中创造数十亿美元。 |
| 83 | Before 2022, India imported about one percent of its oil from Russia. | 2022年之前,印度从俄罗斯进口了大约1%的石油. |
| 84 | It's now importing anywhere from 35 to 40 percent of its oil from Russia. | 它现在从俄罗斯进口35%到40%的石油。 |
| 85 | Yet Russia's heavy reliance on its Asian trading partners does expose vulnerabilities. | 然而,俄罗斯严重依赖其亚洲贸易伙伴确实暴露了脆弱性。 |
| 86 | Both Russia's tight monetary policy and new sanctions imposed at the start of the year | 俄罗斯的紧缩货币政策和年初实施的新制裁 |
| 87 | by the Biden administration will combine into the perfect conditions for Russia's recession. | 拜登政府将联合成为俄罗斯衰退的完美条件. |
| 88 | The price of butter and potatoes had shot up because of labor shortages and high inflation. | 由于劳动力短缺和高通胀,黄油和马铃薯的价格暴涨。 |
| 89 | This had started to affect ordinary Russians. | 这开始影响到普通俄罗斯人。 |
| 90 | Putin really does need some breathing room and sanctions relief to regroup and rearm. | 普京确实需要一些呼吸空间和制裁救济来重新集结和重新武装。 |
| 91 | Western officials put Russian casualties at around 800,000, killed and wounded since 2022. | 西方官员认为俄国伤亡约80万人,自2022年起伤亡. |
| 92 | Now that is an enormous loss for any country to take. | 这对任何国家来说都是巨大的损失。 |
| 93 | Our reading of history and literature suggests that large military dominant nations tend | 我们读历史和文献后发现, 军事优势大国倾向于 |
| 94 | to retreat when there's domestic public pressure in favor of concluding or ending military conflicts. | 当国内公众有压力 要求结束或结束军事冲突时 撤退 |
| 95 | Gauging Russian public opinion, however, is very difficult due to the opacity of the state. | 但由于国家不透明, |
| 96 | Russia is an authoritarian state. | 俄罗斯是一个专制国家. |
| 97 | There are no political freedoms. | 没有政治自由。 |
| 98 | There are hundreds of political prisoners. | 有数百名政治犯。 |
| 99 | People are jailed for just sharing something on social media. | 人们因为在社交媒体上分享一些东西而入狱。 |
| 100 | Authoritarian governments that have a tighter grip on the public enjoy a broader latitude | 更严格控制公众的专制政府享有更大的自由度 |
| 101 | in what they can do and they look through their shocks and costs. | 在他们能做什么, 他们看他们的冲击和代价。 |
| 102 | At the moment, Russia is dominant in terms of the military balance on the battlefield. | 目前,俄罗斯在战场上的军事平衡上占据主导地位. |
| 103 | So there are no reasons why Russia would retreat at the moment. | 因此,俄罗斯目前没有理由撤退。 |
| 104 | So although Russia is in a precarious position, it's Europe that's at a crossroads. | 所以虽然俄罗斯处于不稳定的境地,但欧洲正处于十字路口. |
| 105 | And for Ukraine, the outlook is extremely dark. | 对乌克兰来说,前景极其暗淡。 |
| 106 | The cost of rebuilding Ukraine runs in excess of a trillion dollars, according to some estimates. | 据一些估计,重建乌克兰的费用超过一万亿美元。 |
| 107 | The US has been the guarantor of peace and stability in Europe for decades. | 美国几十年来一直是欧洲和平与稳定的保障者。 |
| 108 | So the stakes are enormous. | 所以赌注是巨大的。 |
| 109 | Look, no one wants to spend more on weapons, but this is the new reality we face. | 听着,没有人想花更多的钱去制造武器, 但是这就是我们面临的新现实。 |
| 110 | We have to remember that this is the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II. | 我们必须记住,这是二战以来欧洲最大的冲突。 |
| 111 | Russia is attempting to redraw the borders of a neighbouring state. | 俄罗斯试图重新划定邻国的边界。 |
| 112 | It's a country that voluntarily gave up a nuclear weapons stockpile on the promise of | 这个国家自愿放弃了核武器储备 |
| 113 | security assurances from Britain, the US and Russia, which have proved to be illusory. | 英国、美国和俄罗斯的安全保证被证明是虚幻的。 |
| 114 | So it's a key moment for the world in the 21st century as to whether the world is going | 所以这是21世纪世界的关键时刻 关于世界是否走向 |
| 115 | to be governed by rules and laws or whether it's going to be governed by power and the | 受规则和法律约束,或是否受权力和 |
| 116 | willingness to impose that power. | 愿意把权力强加于人 |
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