彭博社：超级厄尔尼诺如何加剧天气灾害 | 2026.8.14
字幕摘录
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 0:03 | The cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Nino has returned. | 被称为El Nino的周期性天气现象已经回归. |
| 0:08 | Wildfires in Europe. | 欧洲野火. |
| 0:09 | More than 300,000 people have fled their homes in France and Spain. | 超过30万人逃离法国和西班牙的家园. |
| 0:13 | Catastrophic flooding in India or even New York City. | 印度乃至纽约市的灾难性洪灾. |
| 0:17 | Weather extremes in our world are becoming more frequent. | 我们世界的极端天气越来越频繁。 |
| 0:22 | Those scientists are worried about this El Nino for two reasons. | 这些科学家担心这个埃尔尼诺有两个原因. |
| 0:26 | One is the scale of this El Nino. | 一个是这个El Nino的规模。 |
| 0:29 | It's perhaps the biggest they have seen in recent history and when it is coming, | 也许这是他们近代史上见过的最大的一次 当它来临时 |
| 0:35 | which is in a world that is already 1.4 degrees Celsius hotter as a result of human-caused climate change. | 由于人类造成的气候变化,世界的温度已经达到1.4摄氏度。 |
| 0:43 | El Nino doesn't roll around that often, so it's difficult to totally anticipate what the effects will be. | 厄尔尼诺不会那么频繁地转动,所以很难完全预料会有什么影响. |
展开字幕全文（115 条）
| 序号 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | The cyclical weather phenomenon known as El Nino has returned. | 被称为El Nino的周期性天气现象已经回归. |
| 2 | Wildfires in Europe. | 欧洲野火. |
| 3 | More than 300,000 people have fled their homes in France and Spain. | 超过30万人逃离法国和西班牙的家园. |
| 4 | Catastrophic flooding in India or even New York City. | 印度乃至纽约市的灾难性洪灾. |
| 5 | Weather extremes in our world are becoming more frequent. | 我们世界的极端天气越来越频繁。 |
| 6 | Those scientists are worried about this El Nino for two reasons. | 这些科学家担心这个埃尔尼诺有两个原因. |
| 7 | One is the scale of this El Nino. | 一个是这个El Nino的规模。 |
| 8 | It's perhaps the biggest they have seen in recent history and when it is coming, | 也许这是他们近代史上见过的最大的一次 当它来临时 |
| 9 | which is in a world that is already 1.4 degrees Celsius hotter as a result of human-caused climate change. | 由于人类造成的气候变化,世界的温度已经达到1.4摄氏度。 |
| 10 | El Nino doesn't roll around that often, so it's difficult to totally anticipate what the effects will be. | 厄尔尼诺不会那么频繁地转动,所以很难完全预料会有什么影响. |
| 11 | But this has the potential to be a historic event in terms of its power. | 但就其实力而言,这有可能是一个历史性事件。 |
| 12 | The economic toll this El Nino will take may not be known for years to come. | 埃尔尼诺将付出的经济损失可能在未来数年中无人知晓. |
| 13 | But looking into the past gives us some ideas. | 但回顾过去给我们带来了一些想法。 |
| 14 | In our daily lives, the oceans play a crucial role. | 在我们的日常生活中,海洋发挥着至关重要的作用。 |
| 15 | They can drive our climate and our weather. | 他们可以驱动我们的气候和天气。 |
| 16 | El Nino taught us all about that. | 艾尔尼诺教我们这些 |
| 17 | The El Nino that ended in 1998 had a major effect on global economies. | 1998年结束的El Nino对全球经济产生了重大影响。 |
| 18 | The damage was about $5.7 trillion. | 损失约5.7万亿美元. |
| 19 | It rippled for five years after the event ended. | 它在事件结束后撕裂了5年. |
| 20 | Losses from the 2015-2016 El Nino also ran into the trillions. | 2015-2016年厄尔尼诺的亏损也冲入万亿. |
| 21 | And kind of forecasting suggests we'll see that again. | 某种预测表明我们会再次看到这一点。 |
| 22 | El Nino is a natural phenomenon. | 埃尔尼诺是一种自然现象. |
| 23 | It's to do with an oscillation that happens in the Pacific Ocean. | 与太平洋发生的振荡有关. |
| 24 | There's this naturally occurring cycle in the Pacific Ocean where it warms up, it cools down. | 太平洋有这种自然发生的循环, 在那里它温暖,冷却。 |
| 25 | La Nina is the cool phase. | 拉尼娜是一个很酷的阶段。 |
| 26 | El Nino is the hot phase. | 埃尔尼诺是热的阶段。 |
| 27 | How these phases are identified is by measuring sea surface temperatures in a region of the equatorial Pacific. | 如何确定这些阶段是通过测量赤道太平洋区域的海面温度来确定的。 |
| 28 | And when sea surface temperatures go above 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal, | 当海面温度高于正常温度0.5摄氏度时 |
| 29 | that's when an El Nino is declared. | 这时,一个埃尔尼诺被宣布。 |
| 30 | You can see here sea surface temperature readings taken from this area of the Pacific known as the 3.4 region. | 这里可以看到从太平洋这个被称为3.4区域的区域所摄取的海面温度读数. |
| 31 | The red line shows 2026 temperatures are higher going into the fall than the last El Nino in 2023. | 红线显示,2026年气温进入秋季比2023年最后的埃尔尼诺要高. |
| 32 | And when compared to the average temperatures between 1991 and 2020, it's clear the oceans are warming up. | 而与1991年至2020年的平均气温相比,海洋明显变暖. |
| 33 | What's different with this El Nino is that we're not just looking at sea surface temperatures, | 与埃尔尼诺不同的是 我们不只是看海面温度 |
| 34 | we're also looking at water temperatures beneath the surface. | 我们还在看地表下面的水温 |
| 35 | This El Nino is predicted to warm the Pacific more than 2 degrees Celsius by the end of the year. | 预计到年底,埃尔尼诺将温暖太平洋2摄氏度以上. |
| 36 | And that may not sound like a lot, but that's a lot of extra energy stored in the ocean. | 听起来可能不太像, 但这是大量额外的能量储存在海洋中。 |
| 37 | This will act as a battery that will not only fuel heat transport, but also evaporative potential. | 这将发挥电池的作用,不仅能促进热力运输,而且能促进蒸发潜力。 |
| 38 | And that is going to fuel how strong the impact of this El Nino could be. | 这会激起这个El Nino的强烈影响。 |
| 39 | This climate change, it's the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world in my opinion. | 这场气候变化,这是我认为 世界上最大的骗局。 |
| 40 | Climate change is essentially the response to the additional greenhouse gases that us humans | 气候变化基本上是对我们人类的额外温室气体的反应。 |
| 41 | are putting into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. | 正在通过燃烧化石燃料而进入大气层。 |
| 42 | And what that does is it increases the average temperature of the entire globe. | 它能提高全球平均气温。 |
| 43 | A lot of that increase in heat is actually absorbed by the ocean. | 热量的增加 大部分被海洋吸收 |
| 44 | El Nino is not caused by climate change, but it certainly is affected by it. | 厄尔尼诺并非由气候变化所造成,但无疑受其影响. |
| 45 | The world is already 1.4 degrees Celsius hotter than the pre-industrial period. | 世界已经比工业化前时期热1.4摄氏度。 |
| 46 | On top of which, when an El Nino comes, you get an increase of 0.2 or 0.3 degrees Celsius of warming. | 上面,当一个El Nino出现时, 温度会上升0.2或0.3摄氏度。 |
| 47 | If we track global temperature variations since 1950 versus the pre-industrial era, | 如果我们跟踪1950年以来的全球气温变化 相对于工业化前时代 |
| 48 | this is what we see. | 这就是我们看到的。 |
| 49 | The orange line is the long-term human-caused warming. | 橙线是人类引起的长期变暖. |
| 50 | El Nino years, shown in red, push global temperatures up, while the blue La Nina years pull it down. | 以红色显示的El Nino年将全球温度推高, 而蓝色的La Nina年则将其拉低。 |
| 51 | But the constant upward trend of global temperatures means the starting point for these variations is elevated. | 但全球气温的不断上升趋势意味着这些变化的起点被提升. |
| 52 | And that means the extreme weather events that we are seeing around the world already, | 这意味着我们在世界各地看到的极端天气事件, |
| 53 | which could be a heat wave, it could be a wildfire, could be a flood, | 可能是热浪 也可能是野火 也可能是洪水 |
| 54 | becomes just that much more extreme. | 变得更极端。 |
| 55 | Many climate scientists are saying this El Nino could be a sneak peek into our future. | 许多气候学家都说 厄尔尼诺可能偷窥我们的未来 |
| 56 | And if you've been traveling to Europe recently, you'll understand exactly what this means. | 如果你最近去过欧洲 你会明白这意味着什么 |
| 57 | A state of emergency in Western Europe was described as apocalyptic fires. | 西欧的紧急状态被描述为大火。 |
| 58 | There are fears that a temperature surge could make the fires worse. | 人们担心气温激增会让火灾恶化. |
| 59 | By 2027, which is now expected to be the hottest year ever, | 到2027年,预计今年将是最热的一年 |
| 60 | it might be giving us a flavor, just a flavor, of what life | 它可能给我们一种味道, 只是一种味道,什么生活 |
| 61 | in current trajectory of climate change could look like in 2035. | 在目前的气候变化轨迹中,2035年的情况可能类似。 |
| 62 | Predicting the future can be risky business, but this El Nino is already well underway. | 预测未来可能很冒险 但艾尔尼诺已经开始了 |
| 63 | India's seeing its worst monsoon since the last El Nino. | 印度的季风比上次的厄尔尼诺还要严重 |
| 64 | Rainfall in the region has been erratic. | 该区域的降雨量一直不稳定。 |
| 65 | India had its fifth driest June on record, only to be followed up by a massive flood in July, | 印度有纪录以来第五次最干燥的六月, 之后的7月, |
| 66 | dumping a month's worth of precipitation in a single week. | 在一周内倾倒一个月的降水量. |
| 67 | India still depends hugely on agriculture for its economy, | 印度的经济仍然非常依赖农业, |
| 68 | and monsoon is the main driver of that agricultural economy. | 季风是农业经济的主要推动力。 |
| 69 | Extreme versions of El Nino's wet and dry zones radiating from the equator | 极端版本的厄尔尼诺的湿润和干燥区域从赤道辐射 |
| 70 | threaten crops around the globe. | 威胁着全球的农作物 |
| 71 | Western Africa, it's a hot spot for cocoa production. | 西非,是可可生产的热点. |
| 72 | We're already seeing impacts on cocoa growth and yield. | 我们已经看到了对可可增长和产量的影响。 |
| 73 | This is going to impact pricing going into 2027, | 这将影响定价进入2027年, |
| 74 | and you could start to see some quality issues. | 你可以开始看到一些质量问题。 |
| 75 | This means your chocolate bar or hot cocoa this winter could cost more. | 这意味着你的巧克力棒 或热可可 今年冬天可能花费更多。 |
| 76 | The El Nino event of 23 and 2024 caused multiple spikes in cocoa costs | 23日和2024年的El Nino事件造成可可成本的多次上涨 |
| 77 | that have only recently come down. | 刚刚下来。 |
| 78 | And in Somalia, communities are bracing for the currently dry conditions | 在索马里,各社区正在应付目前干旱的状况。 |
| 79 | to give way to the type of torrential flooding that occurred in the last El Nino. | 让位给最后的厄尔尼诺发生的洪水类型 |
| 80 | It was devastating. | 简直是毁灭性的 |
| 81 | This bridge is connected from this village to the town, and the water rise above it. | 这座桥从这个村落连接到镇上,水位在它之上. |
| 82 | There is people who was not getting food, water, and essential. | 有的人得不到食物、水和必需品。 |
| 83 | This sub El Nino might be one of the biggest, the bigger than in 2023 and 1997. | 这个潜艇El Nino可能是最大的,比2023年和1997年大。 |
| 84 | A lot of the impacts that come from an El Nino happen within the tropics. | 许多来自厄尔尼诺的撞击发生在热带地区. |
| 85 | The places where you have the most productive agricultural land typically, | 你拥有最有生产力的农地的地方 |
| 86 | and the most number of people who rely on agriculture | 以及依赖农业的人数 |
| 87 | for their income and of course for their own food. | 当然还有他们自己的食物 |
| 88 | The London Sock Exchange continues to shrink. | 伦敦袜子交易所继续收缩. |
| 89 | 在Bloomberg.com的Slash视频中, | |
| 90 | Food security and agricultural losses also ripple through supply chains, | 粮食安全和农业损失还通过供应链波及, |
| 91 | making local issues global. | 使地方问题成为全球性问题。 |
| 92 | El Nino can lead to lower rainfall in places like Panama. | 埃尔尼诺可以导致巴拿马等地降雨量降低. |
| 93 | We have a global interconnected supply chain, | 我们有一个全球相互关联的供应链, |
| 94 | so major weather disruptions can actually wreak a lot of havoc. | 所以严重的天气干扰 可能会造成很大的破坏 |
| 95 | Traffic through the Panama Canal plunged in 2024 due to drought during the last El Nino. | 穿越巴拿马运河的交通在2024年因上一个厄尔尼诺时期的干旱而骤减. |
| 96 | And this year, the Canal Authority is already taking measures to conserve water | 今年,运河管理局 已经采取了节水措施 |
| 97 | with cargo limits, citing the same issue. | 以同样的问题为例。 |
| 98 | El Nino is a global hydro story, | 埃尔尼诺是一个全球水利的故事, |
| 99 | which is often missed when everyone is focusing on global temperatures. | 当每个人都专注于全球温度时,人们往往忽略了这一点。 |
| 100 | Trade routes in the Panama Canal will impact flows of LNG, liquid natural gas, | 巴拿马运河的贸易路线将影响液态天然气、液态天然气的流动。 |
| 101 | and in turn our energy prices. | 而反过来,我们的能源价格。 |
| 102 | That's where we could see the impacts on our wallets the most. | 我们最能看到钱包上的冲击 |
| 103 | There's a recent study in the journal Science which found that the 1982-83 El Nino | 期刊《科学》最近有一篇研究 发现1982-83年的El Nino |
| 104 | had long-term impacts of decreasing economic productivity of the world by $4.1 trillion. | 世界经济生产力下降4.1万亿美元的长期影响。 |
| 105 | A similar analysis for 1997-98 led to $5.7 trillion of economic damages to the planet. | 1997-1998年的类似分析导致地球遭受5.7万亿美元经济损失。 |
| 106 | The more recent El Ninos are expected to cost even more in the trillions of dollars. | 近期的埃尔尼诺斯预计以万亿美元的价格成本会更高. |
| 107 | So while El Nino is hitting localities in different ways, | 所以,虽然埃尔尼诺正在以不同的方式打击地方, |
| 108 | the costs are sure to be widespread. | 费用肯定很大。 |
| 109 | El Nino doesn't care about what's going on between countries, | 艾尔尼诺不在乎国与国之间发生了什么 |
| 110 | and it doesn't care about our peace deals, | 它不在乎我们的和约, |
| 111 | and it doesn't care about the geopolitical situation, | 它不在乎地缘政治状况, |
| 112 | or how bad inflation has already gotten. | 或者通货膨胀已经有多糟 |
| 113 | It does what it wants, it arrives on its own schedule, | 它做它想要的, 它到达自己的时间表, |
| 114 | and it often arrives at a time that is not great | 它常常到达一个不伟大的时代 |
| 115 | given other events playing out all around the planet. | 在地球上发生的其他事件 |
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