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金融时报：为什么政府会对债务上瘾？ | 2025.3.28

字幕摘录

时间英文中文
0:03Government borrowing is the biggest issue in finance today.政府借贷是当今最大的金融问题.
0:08Governments around the world are addicted to debt.世界各国政府都沉迷于债务。
0:13The sovereign debt levels globally have just grown exponentially.全球主权债务水平刚刚成指数增长。
0:16In the case of the developed countries, the average ratio of public debt to GDP is now back to where it was in 1945.就发达国家而言,公共债务与国内生产总值的平均比率现已恢复到1945年的水平。
0:23That's rather striking.真让人吃惊
0:25It's politically impossible to solve.政治上无法解决.
0:29Exploding debt is a real worry.借债真是让人担心
0:31If you're an investor, you start wondering what's going to happen and whether there's going to be debt default.如果你是投资人,你就会开始怀疑会发生什么,是否会发生债务违约.
0:38The music stops when you get a major crisis.当你遇到重大危机 音乐就停止了
0:40The big question is, at what point does the bond market break?最大的问题是,债券市场何时破裂?
展开字幕全文（422 条）
序号英文中文
1Government borrowing is the biggest issue in finance today.政府借贷是当今最大的金融问题.
2Governments around the world are addicted to debt.世界各国政府都沉迷于债务。
3The sovereign debt levels globally have just grown exponentially.全球主权债务水平刚刚成指数增长。
4In the case of the developed countries, the average ratio of public debt to GDP is now back to where it was in 1945.就发达国家而言,公共债务与国内生产总值的平均比率现已恢复到1945年的水平。
5That's rather striking.真让人吃惊
6It's politically impossible to solve.政治上无法解决.
7Exploding debt is a real worry.借债真是让人担心
8If you're an investor, you start wondering what's going to happen and whether there's going to be debt default.如果你是投资人,你就会开始怀疑会发生什么,是否会发生债务违约.
9The music stops when you get a major crisis.当你遇到重大危机 音乐就停止了
10The big question is, at what point does the bond market break?最大的问题是,债券市场何时破裂?
11We just don't want the bond yield to get up to a point where it crushes the economy,我们只是不想让债券收益 达到压抑经济的程度
12because then the bond vigilantes will have taken their vengeance.因为那样的话 义警就会报仇了
13A determined central bank can always override any market pressure.一个坚定的中央银行总是能够克服任何市场压力。
14I think bond investors should be terrified.我认为债券投资者应该害怕。
15Let's face it, the world is addicted to debt.面对现实吧 世界对债务上瘾了
16Pretty much every country, leaving Germany aside, has very large amounts of government borrowing.几乎每一个国家,不管德国,都有大量的政府借款。
17We've started to take it as so normal now that governments borrow enormous amounts of money relative to their GDP.现在,我们开始将政府 与GDP相比, 举出巨额资金,视为正常。
18The US, Japan, Canada, Italy, France, all of these countries have very high debt levels by historical standards.根据历史标准,美国、日本、加拿大、意大利、法国等国的债务水平都很高。
19Wherever you look, you see problems of government debt or deficit.无论你在哪里看,你都能看到政府债务或赤字的问题。
20The US, where the deficit is about 7% of GDP, China also has a very large deficit.赤字约占GDP7%的美国,中国的赤字也非常大.
21It's a playbook that we've seen going back at least to the global financial crisis.这是一个游戏本,我们已经看到至少回到全球金融危机。
22You borrow your way out of trouble, and the way that you pay for that borrowing is more borrowing.你借你的方式摆脱麻烦, 你支付借款的方式 是更多的借款。
23And we don't seem to have a way out of this cycle at the moment, at least in some of the biggest economies in the world.目前我们似乎还没有办法走出这个循环, 至少在世界一些最大的经济体。
24In the case of the developed countries, the average ratio of public debt to GDP is now back to where it was in 1945.就发达国家而言,公共债务与国内生产总值的平均比率现已恢复到1945年的水平。
25That's rather striking.真让人吃惊
26A great deal of this has to do with huge shocks.这与巨大的冲击有关。
27So the global financial crisis, then we had Covid, then we had war in Europe.全球金融危机,然后我们有了科维德, 然后我们在欧洲开战。
28And each time governments are found, quite correctly, they need to be, as were the insurers of last resort.每当发现政府时,他们都需要这样做,正如最后的保险人一样。
29Following Covid, we had this global spike in inflation, interest rates going through the roof.紧随科维德之后,全球通胀率暴涨,利率暴涨。
30That means much, much more expensive debt servicing costs, debt interest costs for government.这意味着要花费更多,更昂贵的偿债费用,政府的债务利息费用.
31Debt to GDP levels are roughly 100%, so the same amount of debt as these economies produce every year.债务与国内生产总值的水平大约为100%,因此债务额与这些经济体每年产生的债务额相同。
32The projections are they rise, rise and rise to the point where it gets a bit explosive.预测是它们升起,升起,升起到爆炸的地步。
33My name is Olivier Blanchard.我叫奥利弗·布兰查德
34I've been a professor at MIT all my life.我一辈子都是麻省理工学院的教授
35But I took a leave to go to the IMF.但我请假去货币基金组织了
36I joined in 2008.我于2008年加入这个组织。
37I had to deal with the global financial crisis and then the euro crisis.我不得不应对全球金融危机,然后应对欧元危机。
38There's a number of countries which are addicted to that, and I think the disease can hit any country at any time.有不少国家对此上瘾,我认为这种疾病随时可以袭击任何国家.
39I'm Ray Dalio.我是雷・达柳
40我是Bridgewater Associates的创始人 世界上最大的对冲基金
41I'm a global macro investor.我是一个全球宏观投资者。
42When debts accumulate and interest payments accumulate, the debt service payments squeeze other spending.当债务累积和利息支付累积时,偿债支付会挤压其他支出.
43And it's a particular problem when there's a need to borrow money in order to make debt service payments and the spiral begins.而当需要借钱以还本付息,螺旋式开始的时候,这是一个特别的问题.
44Bonds are effectively an IOU.债券实际上是一个IOU。
45It's a way that the government can say to an investor, OK, you lend me this amount of money for this amount of time and I will give it back to you after that amount of time.这是政府可以告诉投资者的一种方式, 好了,你借我这么多钱 这么长的时间,我会把它还给你。
46And in the interim, I will pay you interest payments called coupons.在此期间 我会付你利息 叫做优惠券
47Now, because there are loads of different bonds, they've all got different maturities, they've all got different coupons attached to them,现在,因为有很多不同的债券, 他们都有不同的到期日, 他们都有不同的优惠券附着,
48it can be a little bit difficult to compare apples with apples.比较苹果和苹果可能有点困难.
49So to do that, what we do is compare the yields that are available on bonds.因此,我们要做的是比较债券上的收益率。
50Yields go up when prices go down.当价格下跌时,义尔兹会上升.
51What governments generally don't want is for yields to go up too quickly or too fast because that jacks up borrowing costs for everybody around the country.政府一般不希望的是, 产量增长太快或太快, 因为这为全国的每个人增加了借贷成本。
52That's why you need a good bedrock of support, of buying support for bonds.这就是为什么你需要一个良好的基础 支持,购买支持债券。
53One man's debts are another man's assets.一个人的债务是另一个人的资产。
54So in order to hold the debt, it has to be attractive.因此,为了持有债务,必须具有吸引力.
55Then there is what some people call the debt death spiral, which means that there's selling of debt when there's worry about that.接下来是有些人所说的债务死亡螺旋式,这意味着在担心时有债务出售.
56People have been warning that this is getting out of control.人们一直警告,这正在失控。
57That drumbeat is definitely getting louder now.那个鼓手现在肯定越来越响了
58We have seen the odd episode where it's looked like investors are saying, we're not buying any more of your bonds.我们已经看到奇怪的一集 看起来投资者说, 我们不再购买你的债券。
59That's when people start to get really jumpy.这时人们开始变得很紧张。
60I'm Karen Ward, I'm the chief market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management.我是凯伦·沃德 我是JP摩根资产管理公司的首席市场战略家
61So my job is to advise clients on what's going on around the world and help them make the best investment decisions.所以,我的工作就是向客户提供世界各地发生的事情的咨询,帮助他们做出最好的投资决策.
62The level of government borrowing is certainly one of the top questions I get asked amongst clients today.政府借贷水平无疑是我今天在客户中遇到的顶尖问题之一。
63Government debt is supposed to be our safe haven asset.政府债务应该是我们的避风港资产。
64It's supposed to be the bedrock of our portfolio.它应该是我们投资组合的基石。
65It's supposed to be the boring bit.这应该是无聊的部分。
66我是Greg Peters PGM固定收入公司投资主管
67From a bond investing standpoint, what I worry about is inflation.从债券投资的角度来看,我担心的是通货膨胀。
68And so inflation on the rise is just so difficult from an overall portfolio standpoint to protect yourself.因此,从整体投资组合的角度来看,通货膨胀上升 很难保护自己。
69Bonds hate inflation.债券讨厌通货膨胀。
70It's like kryptonite for them.如 k石为众生.
71They just can't live with it because it eats into their returns.他们只是不能忍受它,因为 它吃在他们的回报。
72In a world where we're also being met with inflation shocks,在一个同样受到通货膨胀冲击的世界里
73then the role of government bonds as that safe haven diversifier that many investors look to isn't quite so clear.而政府债券的作用 作为避风港的潜水者 许多投资者看起来并不太清楚。
74There are times when an increase in debt is completely justified.有时债务增加是完全有理由的。
75Wars or preparing for wars or COVID.战争或准备战争或COVID.
76These are cases where you have to spend more.这些都是你必须花更多钱的案例。
77What we have seen in many countries is not that.我们在许多国家看到的不是这种情况。
78It's basically just tomorrow is another day type behavior.基本上只是明天是另一类行为
79The world has been addicted to debt because debt has been for free.世界对债务上瘾,因为债务是免费的。
80So we're coming out of this zero negative interest rate world where there's been nothing but encouraging taking on more debt.因此,我们从这个零负利率世界中走出来, 在这个世界上,除了鼓励承担更多的债务之外,什么都没有。
81我是Stephanie Kelton 我是Stony Brook大学的经济学和公共政策教授
82I do a lot of public speaking, finance, hedge fund, investment bank.我做很多公共演讲, 金融,对冲基金,投资银行。
83That's my crowd.这是我的人群。
84I can pull them before I go in and say, how many people think we should be reducing budget deficits?在我进去说之前 我可以把他们拉出来 有多少人认为我们应该减少预算赤字?
85Almost every hand goes up.几乎每只手都向上
86How many people are worried about the national debt?有多少人担心国债?.
87Almost every hand goes up.几乎每只手都向上
88When I put this graph up, everything changes.当我把这个图表,一切都会改变。
89This is the United States of America.这是美利坚合众国。
90The government has been running deficits for virtually my entire life.政府几乎一辈子都在亏空
91But look up and they see surpluses in the rest of the world and surpluses in the US private sector.但往上看,他们看到世界其他地区的盈余和美国私营部门的盈余。
92If you want to eliminate the government deficit, you're going to erase all of the other surpluses because the one is creating the other.如果你想消除政府的赤字,你会抹去所有其他的盈余,因为一个是创造另一个.
93The government deficit is doing something very useful, which is creating a surplus, allowing the rest of us to net save.政府赤字正在做一些非常有益的事情,这正在创造盈余,使我们其他人能够净储蓄.
94Their red ink is our black ink.他们的红色墨水是我们的黑色墨水
95My name is Russell Napier, an advisor to investment institutions.我叫罗素·纳皮尔 投资机构的顾问
96One of my choices is also to be the keeper of the Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library here in Edinburgh.我的选择之一是成为 爱丁堡商业和金融历史图书馆的保管人
97There is an issue with there being too much borrowing in the government sector, but it has to be seen in conjunction with too much borrowing in the private sector.问题是政府部门的借贷过多,但必须结合私营部门的借贷过多来看待。
98If we lived in a country where government debt to GDP was high, but the private sector debt to GDP was low, then the consequences of this government debt addiction would actually be quite different.如果我们生活在一个政府债务对GDP高,但私营部门债务对GDP低的国家,那么这种政府债务成瘾的后果实际上就会大不相同.
99Private borrowing, private debt and private markets are, in my view, just as big a problem.我认为,私人借贷、私人债务和私人市场同样是一个大问题。
100Really big private buffs cause explosion of government debt.真正的大私人布夫 造成政府债务的爆炸。
101After the financial crisis, until the pandemic and really a year or two after the pandemic, all we were worried about was inadequate demand and deflation.在金融危机之后,直到该流行病爆发,以及该流行病爆发一年或两年之后,我们所担心的只是需求不足和通货紧缩。
102That was a world in which monetary policy was aggressively stimulative.在这个世界上,货币政策具有积极的刺激性。
103Inflation has come back and inflationary pressures seem quite strong.通货膨胀已经恢复,通货膨胀的压力似乎相当大。
104When you're dealing with government's requirements in the political system, there's a desire for spending.在政治体制中处理政府要求时,有支出欲望.
105When you get credit and you can hand things out on credit, at that time it's better.当你得到信用,你可以 发出的东西通过信用, 在这个时候,它更好。
106Credit produces debt.信贷产生债务。
107One of the ways we tried to deal with that situation for the last decade was to try and cut back on other areas of spending.我们在过去十年中试图处理这种情况的方法之一是试图削减开支的其他领域。
108But that's actually left us with a new problem.但实际上这给我们留下了一个新的问题。
109We haven't been committing enough to public services, public infrastructure.我们对公共服务和公共基础设施的承诺还不够。
110And you can see that the pressure is on governments around the West to, if you like, make up for the lost spending that happened during the decade of austerity.你可以看到,西方各国政府的压力是,如果你想的话, 弥补在紧缩的十年中 损失的开支。
111You've got all these pressures which are building up.你压力很大
112We've got quite weak growth, so you don't have hugely rapidly growing tax revenues.我们增长相当弱,所以你没有快速增长的税收收入。
113You're gambling with World War III.你在赌第三次世界大战
114A more uncertain global security world's defence is going to become more of a priority, not less.一个更加不确定的全球安全世界的防御将成为一个更加优先而不是更少的优先事项。
115An ageing population, there's a green transition.人口老龄化,绿色转型.
116A lot of that needs some sort of public support to make it happen faster.需要公众的支持 才能更快实现
117And we're likely to see interest rates much higher than they were before, and that adds an additional burden.我们很可能看到利率比以前高得多, 这增加了额外的负担。
118We've now got to the point where it's pretty normal for governments to borrow on a kind of crisis pace every year.我们现在已经到了一个地步, 政府每年以某种危机的速度借钱是很正常的。
119In a world of low inflation, you can get away with this.在一个低通胀的世界里,你可以摆脱这一切.
120Bond investors will fund you and fund you and fund you.债券投资者会资助你 资助你 资助你
121But in a world where it is not likely that inflation stays low, that is when time is called upon the whole thing.但是,在一个通货膨胀不大可能保持低水平的世界里,也就是在需要时间的时候。
122Supply and demand are running headlong into each other.供应和需求相互影响。
123The bond market was the ultimate arbiter of fiscal responsibility.债券市场是财政责任的最终仲裁者。
124The bond vigilantes, so to speak, step in and actually focus the mind of politicians.关系义警,可以说, 介入和实际上聚焦 政治家的思想。
125I'm Ed Yardeni.我是爱德・雅德尼
126I'm the president of Yardeni Research, focusing on global macroeconomic and financial markets.我是雅德尼研究公司的总裁,专注于全球宏观经济和金融市场.
127I've been doing this for over 45 years.我已经做了45年了
128Well, I first wrote about the bond vigilantes in July of 1983.1983年7月 我第一次写了债券义警
129And during the 1970s, bond investors got killed.而在1970年代,债券投资者被杀.
130Inflation soared and bond yields went up dramatically.通货膨胀猛增,债券收益大幅上升。
131And I argued that if the fiscal and monetary authorities were not going to maintain discipline,我主张如果财政和货币当局不守纪律
132that the bond vigilantes would take over and they would push bond yields up to levels that could slow the economy down and bring inflation down.债券民团将接管 并将债券收益 提升到 可以减缓经济和降低通货膨胀的水平
133We just don't want the bond yield to get up to a point where it crushes the economy,我们只是不想让债券收益 达到压抑经济的程度
134because then the bond vigilantes really will have taken their vengeance.因为那样的话 义和团的义和团就会报仇了
135We've seen all this rise in debt without the bond vigilantes stopping it with a few exceptions.我们看到了债务的上升 没有债券义警阻止它 除了几个例外。
136So what did we see in 2022 in the UK?2022年在英国我们看到了什么?
137The bond markets decided that the Liz Trust government didn't have a clue.债券市场认定丽兹信托政府没有线索.
138Our gift to the world is showing everyone what can go wrong if you push the bond market too far.我们给世界的礼物是告诉大家 如果你把债券市场推得太远 会出什么问题
139Mr Speaker, I am a fighter and not a quitter.议长先生,我是一个战士,而不是一个退出者。
140Bond investors talk about Liz Trust moments.债券投资者谈丽兹信托时刻.
141我们都记得2022年底 Liz Trust和她的院长Kwasi Kwarteng 有效地炸毁了Gilts市场
142Prices fell incredibly quickly, triggered a lot more very aggressive selling,价格迅速下跌 引发了更激烈的销售
143and it all got out of hand very quickly and it took the Bank of England to steady the ship.都很快失控了 英国银行才把船稳住了
144Governments around the world live in dread of doing that to their bond markets,全世界各国政府都害怕这样对待债券市场,
145because immediately you could see in the UK during that episode that borrowing costs went through the roof,因为当您在英国看到 在那一集,借款费用 穿过屋顶,
146people's mortgage costs went through the roof, bond markets matter in real life,债券市场在现实生活中很重要
147because it really hits the average household in the pocket pretty hard.因为它真的打击普通家庭 在口袋相当重。
148The UK is front and centre in many respects around the concerns of debt sustainability.联合王国在许多方面都以债务可持续性的关切为中心。
149So I don't think it's particularly a fiscal credibility problem here in the UK.所以我不认为这是 财政信誉问题 在英国。
150There are questions over the long term growth prospects here.这里存在着长期增长前景的问题。
151We don't want to get this out of proportion.我们不想把事情搞大一点
152There isn't a UK markets crisis happening right now like what we saw two or three years ago with Liz Trust.现在没有英国市场危机了 就像我们两三年前在丽兹信托公司看到的
153This government inherited quite a relatively tight fiscal position.这个政府继承了相当紧张的财政状况.
154Maintaining fiscal tightness is going to be very difficult because the pressures for spending are just so strong.保持财政紧缩将非常困难,因为支出压力太大。
155The big question is, when the big boy here, the US,最大的问题是 当大男孩在美国
156which has the biggest deficit, has completely unsustainable debt profiles,赤字最大 债务状况完全无法持续
157when do the bond vigilantes take against the US?公义兵什么时候反对美国?
158The US is really at the heart of this entire issue.美国是整个问题的核心。
159It's the linchpin of the global economy.这是全球经济的关键。
160Its bond market is worth more than $20 trillion.其债券市场价值超过20万亿美元.
161It has a bigger deficit than most Western countries.它的赤字大于大多数西方国家.
162And then you have Donald Trump coming into office.然后你让唐纳德·特朗普上任.
163Worst case, you're looking at 10 years forward, 160% debt to GDP.最坏的情况是,你展望未来10年,160%的债务对GDP.
164That is an ice-popping, staggering number.这是一个冰弹爆炸,惊人的数字。
165The US federal government spent $880 billion on debt interest last year.美国联邦政府去年在债务利息上花费了8800亿美元.
166That's four times the level of a decade ago.这是十年前的四倍
167And it's more than they spend on the military, almost as much as they spend on health.这比他们花在军费上的钱还要多,几乎和他们花在健康上的钱一样多.
168If the way that you pay for debt is to issue more debt,如果你支付债务的方式 是发行更多的债务,
169you're vulnerable to a rise in interest rates, and that's exactly what's happened.你很容易受到利率上升的影响 事情就是这样的
170It's approaching 25% of all revenues just to pay back the debt.它接近所有收入的25% 只是为了还债
171And that is the classic debt trap, right?这就是典型的债务陷阱,对不对?
172It's a hole that you can't dig out of, and you can't inflate your way out.此洞不可掘出,亦不能充塞外道.
173Well, the US is running an enormous deficit, about 6% of GDP,美国赤字巨大 约占GDP的6%
174which in peacetime at full employment, remember, is extraordinary.在和平时期,在充分就业时,记住,这是非凡的。
175I mean, it's absolutely enormous.我的意思是,这是绝对巨大的。
176And the trajectory for US debt, if you look at standard forecasts,还有美国债务的轨迹 如果你看看标准预测
177I mean, it's very, very disturbing,我的意思是,这是非常,非常令人不安的,
178since it's the most important country with the most important currency.因为它是最重要的国家 有最重要的货币。
179The projected amount of debt that has to be sold, which equals the deficit,预计必须出售的债务数额,相当于赤字,
180is 7.5% of GDP, and at existing interest rates, that raises also debt service a lot.占GDP的7.5%,按现行利率计算,这也提高了偿债率。
181So it's right at that precipice.所以就在那个悬崖上
182I think the way that you address this issue is you make a bipartisan,我认为你处理这个问题的方式 是使一个两党,
183cross-party line's commitment to 3% of GDP.跨党派线承诺占GDP3%.
184People are so conditioned to hear the word deficit and think it's a pejorative.人以闻"缺"字为条件,以为贬义.
185And what I think we have is a linguistic problem.我认为我们有一个语言问题。
186We're using words like deficit and debt to describe things that are really quite benign.我们用诸如赤字和债务之类的词来形容那些非常善良的东西。
187When people say they're very worried about the government deficit,当人们说 他们非常担心 政府赤字,
188what they're saying is, I'm very worried about the financial surplus他们说,我很担心财政盈余
189that's in the non-government part of the economy.这是在非政府的部分 经济。
190Call it the net contribution instead of the deficit.称之为净捐款而不是赤字。
191Call it the cumulative net contribution instead of the debt.称之为累计净捐款,而不是债务。
192The temperature would come down a lot if people understood如果人们能理解,温度会下降很多
193that the thing we're fighting over is our financial surplus and our savings account.我们所争斗的是财政盈余和储蓄账户
194The Trump administration, once they realized that they were going to go into the White House,特朗普政府一旦意识到 他们将要进入白宫
195they had to at least make some effort to satisfy the bond vigilantes.他们至少必须做出一些努力 满足债券的义警。
196And so suddenly we have the Doge Department, the Department of Government Efficiency.突然间我们有了道格部,政府效率部。
197And they're also going to address the deficit.他们也会解决赤字问题。
198So we've got a $2 trillion deficit.所以,我们有一个2万亿美元的赤字。
199And if we don't do something about this deficit, the country's going bankrupt.如果我们不为这个赤字做点什么,这个国家就会破产.
200Maybe this Department of Government Efficiency,也许政府效率部
201{\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}穆斯克应该负责的 {\fn黑体\fs22\bord1\shad0\3aHBE\4aH00\fscx67\fscy66\2cHFFFFFF\3cH808080}会找到巨大的积蓄
202which will be enacted.将颁布。
203I'm very, very skeptical that there's anything there我非常,非常怀疑那里有什么
204which will be big enough to offset likely tax cuts.这将足以抵消可能的减税。
205Elon Musk was kind of, I think it was asked during the campaign,伊隆·穆斯克是那种, 我想是在竞选期间问的,
206how much do you expect to cut off from the deficit?你想从赤字中切断多少?
207And he right away blurted out $2 trillion.而他立刻模糊了两万亿美元。
208Even he's backed off on that.连他都放弃了
209I'm skeptical that Musk will be able to reduce spending sufficiently我怀疑穆斯克会减少开支
210to decrease the deficit by any substantial amount.将赤字减少任何数额。
211It would take some hiccup in bond markets, in the Treasury market,在债券市场,在国库市场需要打嗝
212to actually lead Congress to be slightly more responsible.实际领导国会 稍微更负责任。
213The U.S. is crucial to the global financial system.美国对全球金融体系至关重要.
214The dollar is the world's currency of trade, of cross-border debt.美元是世界贸易的货币,是跨界债务的货币。
215People in other countries, big investors, central banks, they need to hold dollars.其他国家的人,大投资者,中央银行,都需要持有美元.
216That means they need to buy U.S. government debt.这意味着他们需要购买美国政府债务.
217It's the benchmark safe asset for the whole world.这是全世界的安全资产
218Now that has enabled the U.S. government to be more free-spending than most others.现在,这让美国政府比大多数其他国家 更加自由地支出。
219Maybe the type of crisis that we've seen in the U.K. or in the Euro zone也许是英国或欧元区的危机
220a decade and a half ago could eventually come to the bond market,十年半前, 债券市场,
221the economy that is at the center of all of this.经济是这一切的中心。
222It could be really the most significant fiscal monetary problem in the world.这可能是世界上最重要的财政货币问题。
223And it could trigger destabilizing events in financial markets.它可能会引发金融市场的不稳定事件。
224I did see a post from President Trump, two words, all caps, balanced budget,我确实看到特朗普总统的帖子 两个字,所有上限,平衡的预算,
225with tax cuts and a lot of spending on border and other things.减税 和大量开支 在边境和其他东西。
226I think it's more likely than not that we'll see large deficits continue.我认为我们更有可能看到巨额赤字继续存在.
227On the flip side, we've also seen with a country like Japan在反面,我们也看到了一个像日本这样的国家
228that you can have very, very high government debt levels for a very long time,你可以拥有非常,非常高的政府债务水平 在很长一段时间,
229and really nothing bad happens.真的没有坏事发生
230The key to Japan's success, if you like, is that their very high debt levels如果喜欢的话,日本成功的关键是 他们的债务非常高
231have been accompanied by an economic stagnation,伴随着经济停滞,
232where the central bank keeps interest rates very low,中央银行的利率很低,
233and also does quantitative easing, where it buys up all of the debt.并实行量化宽松,在其中购买所有债务。
234So it doesn't really enter the market.所以它并没有真正进入市场.
235And yet the currency depreciated by 4% a year,然而货币每年贬值4%
236so you lost about 70% relative to U.S. bonds.所以,你损失了约70% 相对于美国债券。
237It's going to be a bad deal.将作不善交易.
238The bond vigilantes, if we want to be honest, they're the central bankers.债券治安维持者,如果我们要诚实,他们是中央银行家.
239A determined central bank can always override any market pressure坚定的中央银行总能克服任何市场压力
240to move yields higher, as the Bank of Japan has clearly demonstrated.如日本银行所明确显示的,
241The unique thing about Japan is that the creditor of the Japanese government日本的独特之处在于 日本政府的债权人
242is the Japanese people.是日本人民,他们都是日本人
243They have been prepared, it's mostly the corporate sector,他们已经准备好了, 主要是公司部门,
244to hold Japanese government debt at zero yields, despite inflation.尽管通货膨胀,但日本政府的债务仍保持在零收益水平。
245The Bank of Japan is a highly trusted institution.日本银行是一个高度信任的机构。
246I wouldn't be surprised if there were problems at some point,如果有问题我也不会惊讶
247but they do have the most trusting and most solvent creditors in the world,但他们的确拥有世界上最信任和最有偿付能力的债权人,
248mainly themselves.主要是他们自己。
249The Eurozone's public finances are rather stronger than those in the U.K.欧元区的公共财政比英国的要强。
250or the U.S. or Japan, but the Eurozone's not a cohesive picture或美国或日本, 但欧元区不是一个团结的画面
251by any stretch of the imagination.任何想象力。
252Italy is one of the biggest borrowers, if not the biggest borrower, in the Euro area.意大利是欧元区最大的借款国之一,如果不是最大的借款国的话。
253France just politically has a really difficult time reigning in spending.法国在政治方面,
254In France there are plenty of issues that we have to confront,在法国,我们必须面对许多问题,
255including the deficit and the debt, and so I'm involved in those discussions.包括赤字和债务, 所以我参与这些讨论。
256The debt level is high, but it's increasing, and that's what worries me.债务水平很高,但正在增加,这就是我担心的.
257I think we have to at least stabilise the ratio of debt to GDP,我认为我们必须至少稳定债务与GDP的比例,
258and that's a big number.这是一个很大的数字。
259To do this under the best assumptions that I can make,要做到这一点 最好的假设,我可以做,
260it's 150 billion that we have to find.我们必须找到1500亿
261In the current political environment, that's absolutely impossible.在目前的政治环境中,这绝对是不可能的.
262It may well require the kind of crisis which makes people sit down这很可能需要那种危机 让人们坐下来
263and be willing to accept cuts, and without it I'm not sure we'll get there.并愿意接受削减, 没有它,我不确定我们会到达那里。
264You've got an additional element here, which is Germany,这里还有一个元素,就是德国
265the poster child for limited spending, limited borrowing,海报的孩子 有限的开支,有限的借贷,
266one of the safest and frankly most boring bond markets on earth.世界上最安全最无趣的债券市场之一
267Germany's new chancellor has reached a historic deal德国新任总统达成历史性协议
268to spend hundreds of billions of euros on defence and on infrastructure.花费数千亿欧元用于国防和基础设施。
269Now this is a huge change.这是一个巨大的变化。
270We're talking about an economy that has historically been very reluctant to borrow heavily,我们说的是一个 历史上非常不愿意借钱的经济
271so in a sense Germany is belatedly joining the global debt party.因此,从某种意义上说,德国加入全球债务方的时间已晚。
272They need more domestic demand, and the private sector runs a huge surplus in Germany.它们需要更多的国内需求,而私营部门在德国有巨大的盈余。
273It doesn't generate demand adequately.它没有产生足够的需求。
274It has to spend a lot more on defence.它必须花更多的钱来防御。
275We all know it.我们都知道
276Its growth is very slow.它的生长非常缓慢.
277It needs a lot more public sector investment.它需要更多的公共部门投资。
278Investment has been very weak.投资一直非常薄弱。
279If you need a defence build-up, you need to borrow.需要国防建设的,应当借用.
280That's what governments are for.这就是政府的目的。
281Whilst the rest of the world have been spending,世界其他地方都在花钱
282whether that's checks in the post in the US during Covid,这是否是科维德期间在美国的支票
283we've had huge support for industry, like we've seen in China,工业得到了巨大的支持 就像我们在中国看到的
284supporting its electric vehicles.支持其电动车辆。
285We haven't seen the same behaviour in Germany,在德国,我们没见过同样的行为
286but it's paid the economic price for its prudence.但它为了谨慎而付出了经济代价。
287It's really struggling to compete with some of those car producers in China和中国的一些汽车生产商竞争真的很困难
288that, thanks to those subsidies, have reached massive economies of scale.由于这些补贴,已经达到大规模经济规模。
289The consumer in Germany, not having had those checks in the post,在德国的消费者,没有 这些支票在邮箱,
290is much more cautious, hasn't been spending.更谨慎,没有花。
291The investment community has been crying out to Germany to borrow for the last decade and a half.投资界一直向德国大声疾呼,要求德国在过去15年中借款.
292They've been reluctant to do so.他们一直不愿这样做。
293Now that they are, as I say, belatedly joining the party,现在,正如我所说,他们加入晚会,
294people are assuming this will be great news for the German economy,人们以为这对德国经济来说是好消息
295great news for the European economy.欧洲经济的好消息。
296Debt is not always bad.债务并不总是坏的。
297That's the important thing to remember here.这是这里要记住的大事.
298Italy is a bit different from France.意大利与法国有点不同.
299It has a high level of debt,债务很高,
300but again, between 100 and 130.但还是在100到130之间
301What you have is a prime minister who actually is fairly responsible from a fiscal viewpoint.你拥有的是一个总理,从财政角度来说,他其实是相当负责的。
302One of the reasons is that a lot of money from Brussels is conditional on good behaviour.其中一个原因是,从布鲁塞尔得到的大量资金都以良好的行为为条件.
303Italy is behaving fairly well.意大利的表现相当良好。
304The bond vigilantes have never been potentially more powerful义和团从没有这么强大过
305simply because there's a lot more debt.只是因为还有更多的债务。
306Whether the politicians get the message is a whole other story.政客们是否得到这个信息 完全是另一个故事
307We have to get the government deficits down to a level我们必须把政府赤字降到一个水平
308so that debt doesn't rise relative to incomes.这样债务不会比收入增加。
309If it's not done like that, you will have a high risk of a financial market heart attack.如果不是这样的话,你就会面临金融市场心脏病发作的高风险.
310You just can't say at X percent that's when the bond market's going to wake up.你不能在X%时 说债券市场会醒过来
311That lack of clarity around an exact number is the problem.问题在于缺乏确切数字的明确性。
312That's the thing that really worries investors这是真正让投资者担心的事
313because there's nothing they can do to hedge against it or prepare for it.因为他们无计可施 来对抗它或准备它。
314The big risk is what we saw in the 70s.最大的风险是我们在70年代看到的。
315The governments that issue debt in their own currency very rarely default.以本国货币发行债务的政府很少违约。
316With the Trump administration, possibly at war with the Fed,与川普政府, 可能与美联储交战,
317that could look quite plausible in a year or two.一年或两年内看起来很合理
318If that happens, then the bond market would certainly break.如果发生这种情况,债券市场肯定会崩溃。
319You get high interest rates, high inflation,你得到高利率,高通胀,
320and in the end, inflation wipes out the debt.最后,通货膨胀抵消了债务。
321That should make the investors very worried.这应该让投资者非常担心。
322Something's got to give.有些东西得给。
323Either bond investors have got to be convinced somehow任何债券投资者都要被说服
324to just chew down on returns that they really don't want,仅仅嚼掉回报 他们真的不希望,
325or governments have got to massively cut their spending.或政府不得不大量削减开支。
326Austerity isn't going to happen.紧缩是不会发生的。
327It may be a market impulse to go for a debt spiral,也许是市场冲动 债务螺旋上升,
328but governments would not permit it.但政府不会允许
329These so-called vigilantes are back because they can see a world going forward这些所谓的义勇军回来了 因为他们能看到世界向前发展
330where there's more inflation.那里的通货膨胀比较高。
331My opinion on the vigilantes is that they will be assassinated.我对治安维持者的看法是 他们会被暗杀
332This is what we did after World War II.这是我们在二战后所做的。
333We didn't allow the market to determine the price我们不允许市场决定价格
334at which the governments would pay for credit.政府将支付信贷。
335We forced people to buy government bonds,我们强迫人们购买政府债券,
336keep those yields at rates that any vigilante would consider obscenely bad value保持这些收益率 任何私刑犯都会认为 淫秽的坏价值
337to prevent the debt spiral and a death spiral.防止债务螺旋和死亡螺旋。
338Whether we live in democracies or whether we live in dictatorships,无论我们生活在民主国家中,还是生活在独裁统治中,
339the dictation will be to the vigilantes,誓必归于义兵,
340not the vigilantes dictating to the governments.而不是政府授权的义警
341There's a real debate between economists.经济学家之间有真正的争论.
342Some people will say the bill is falling due,有人会说法案到期了
343something bad is going to happen if we don't cut debt soon.如果我们不尽快减债 坏事就会发生
344Other people will point out that actually government finances are not like household finances.其他人会指出,实际上政府财政不像家庭财政。
345You don't have to pay your bills because you control the money printing machine.因为控制了印钞机,所以不用付账单.
346The problem with that is that it's inflationary,问题是通货膨胀,
347so there's no zero-cost way to sort this out.所以,没有零成本的方法 来解决这个问题。
348If you don't like the fact that there's a large and growing treasury market,如果你不喜欢这个事实 一个巨大的 并且不断发展的国库市场,
349you could always make the decision to stop issuing more treasuries.你可以决定停止发行更多的国库
350It's a policy choice, it's not an economic imperative这是政策选择,不是经济责任
351that the government issue securities to match the deficit each year.政府每年发行与赤字相当的证券。
352You don't need to get rid of government debt.你不需要去除政府债务。
353All you need is to stabilize it at some level你只需要在某种程度上稳定它
354that your population and your lenders think is reasonable.你们的人口和贷款人认为合理。
355Deficits can be useful when the economy goes down.当经济下滑时,缺陷是有用的。
356There is a recession.出现了衰退。
357Then it's clearly a good idea to have a larger deficit.那么,有较大的赤字显然是个好主意.
358A larger deficit when times are bad,赤字越大越好
359and a larger surplus when times are good.当时间好的时候,还有更大的盈余。
360Public finances have to be sustainable.公共财政必须是可持续的。
361The wrong way to get there is to have a massive, sudden fiscal shock and tightening.赶到那里,错误的方法是发生大规模,突然的财政冲击和收紧.
362That was the great mistake after the financial crisis with austerity.这是金融危机后用紧缩手段造成的巨大错误。
363But we should be sure that they're sustainable但我们应该确定它们是可持续的
364and that we should be sure that the public finances support growth.我们应确保公共财政支持增长。
365If you simply take the view that's borrow as much as we can,如果你只是把风景 借给我们尽可能多的,
366then you'll find yourself with this problem in the private sector.然后,你会发现自己的问题 在私营部门。
367Now, there are other people in that camp who say,营地里还有其他人说:
368well, that's really easy because we just found it by printing more money.嗯,这真的很简单,因为我们只是通过印刷更多的钱找到的。
369Well, there's a long, long, long, long, long history of how that is disastrous.嗯,有很长,很长,很长的历史 如何是灾难性的。
370Now, I know those people will argue that it will not be like that this time.我知道那些人会争辩 这次不会是这样的
371I think any financial historian finds it exceptionally difficult我觉得任何金融史学家都觉得这很困难
372to see how the direct government financing by the central bank以了解中央银行如何直接资助政府
373is anything but heading to very high levels of inflation.除了进入非常高的通货膨胀水平之外,别无他法。
374But, big but, there are plenty of savings in the world,但是,大但, 世界上有很多储蓄,
375and the government's going to manipulate those savings to borrow more money.政府会操纵这些储蓄 借更多钱
376But it's going to borrow that by forcing people to buy those government bonds.但通过强迫人们购买这些政府债券来借钱.
377I don't think they take the radical approach that some people recommend我认为他们不会采取 激进的方法 有些人建议
378of direct funding of the government by the central bank.中央银行直接资助政府。
379You don't have to take that risk.你不必冒险
380The world's full of savings.世间积集.
381You can abuse the savers long before you have to abuse the balance sheet of the central bank.在必须滥用中央银行资产负债表之前,你可以虐待储蓄者。
382I can't see a way for governments to snap this reliance on debt.我无法让政府停止这种对债务的依赖。
383The countries which have large deficits are going to go through tough adjustments.赤字较大的国家将经历艰难的调整。
384The notion of fiscal rules will come back.财政规则的概念将重新出现。
385No panics.别慌
386Panics are the worst thing you can do恐慌症是最坏的 你能做到的
387unless you've got an absolutely overwhelming immediate crisis.除非你有 绝对压倒性的紧急危机。
388Everybody wants more credit.每个人都想要更多的信用。
389Politicians particularly like borrowing and spending特别是借款和支出等政治家
390because the paying back comes in somebody else's turn.因为还钱是别人的
391And if you can increase spending without increasing taxes如果你可以增加开支而不增加税收
392and get away with it, that's nirvana.并摆脱它,这是尼尔万娜。
393And there's only one problem is, well, how about the bond vigilantes?只有一个问题, 怎么样的债券义警?
394Maybe they don't want it, and maybe they have the power to stop that.也许他们不希望, 也许他们有力量阻止。
395So there are big debt cycles that go on for 50 or 75 years所以有大的债务周期 持续50或75年
396in which debt is rising relative to the income needed to service that debt.债务相对于偿还债务所需的收入正在增加。
397Policy makers need to understand the big debt cycle.决策者需要了解大的债务周期。
398Are there limits to debt?债务有限度吗?
399What are they like mechanically?他们像机械人吗?
400Yes, because it will come.是的,因为它会来。
401Every government deficit is good for someone.每个政府赤字都对某人有好处.
402Is it a deficit that is resulting from passing tax cuts这是通过减税造成的赤字吗?
403that primarily benefit people in the top of the income distribution?这主要有利于收入分配最高层的人?
404That deficit is going to be very good for that cohort of people.这种赤字将非常有利于这些人群。
405Or is it a deficit that is the result of making investments还是亏空是投资的结果?
406in your health care system, your education system, your infrastructure?在你的医疗保健系统, 你的教育系统,你的基础设施?
407That can increase the deficit as well and serve a different constituency.这也可以增加赤字,为不同的支持者服务。
408Inflating away the debt by stealth over a period of many, many years在很多、很多年的时间里 隐形地充斥债务
409may turn out to be the least worst option here,可能是这里最糟糕的选择
410or at least one that allows politicians to avoid making some very, very unpopular decisions.或至少允许政治家们避免做出一些非常,非常不受欢迎的决定。
411But higher inflation, as we've seen in recent years, is very unpopular但高通胀,正如我们近年来所见, 非常不受欢迎
412and can also lead to governments being thrown out of office.也会导致政府被开除。
413Inflation has to be unexpected.通货膨胀必须出乎意料。
414If inflation is expected, then bond yields go up如果预计通货膨胀,债券收益就会上升
415and actually governments don't improve their debt situation.实际上政府并没有改善债务状况。
416I can't imagine a world easily without government debt.我无法想象一个没有政府债务的世界。
417Government debt has been a feature of economies for centuries.几个世纪以来,政府债务一直是经济的一个特征。
418The modern financial system in the UK was created with the creation of the Bank of England英国现代金融系统是随着英格兰银行的创立而创立的
419and that was there to help the government manage its debt.帮助政府管理债务
420The government is the soundest credit and it does long run things.政府是最可靠的信用,它做 长期的事情。
421There's nothing wrong with borrowing.举借无碍.
422It's part of what makes a modern financial system work.它是现代金融系统发挥作用的一部分。
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